1/1/2015
guest Let's be honest, noone like the S Class in the US, they have all already been converted to Tesla
But seriously, I think someone, somewhere ran the numbers and sales for the F segment are actually being impacted by the Model S. Or at least it would appear to be the case. The only one not significantly impacted is actually the S Class and that is because they JUST refreshed the brand (which was great timing on their part). But what sells well in the US doesn't necessarily translate to China, so we shall see. I know it will be big in China, but it is going to be tough to meet everyone's tastes unless Tesla steps it up a bit. Having the charging infrastructure is going to be necessary as well... which also seems to be holding back sales just a bit from their potential. So in a few years, I could see it growing beyond the US, but the 40/40/20 number was referencing next year's sales more than anything I think.
But number 1 or number 2, it doesn't matter, because both markets combined is great for us!�
1/1/2015
guest Any of our Norwegian friends have a video of Elon speaking at the "oil conference"?�
1/1/2015
guest I'll throw out >268, possibly touching 270 today.�
1/1/2015
guest I sold some 270 covered calls a while back. I might have to buy them back!�
1/1/2015
guest Let�s celebrate now a bit shall we ? :biggrin:
�
1/1/2015
guest Did Jurvetson on CNBC just cause that jump?�
1/1/2015
guest Here's a snippet:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000304361�
1/1/2015
guest If only Elon interviewed as well as Steve does. Oh well, nobody's perfect.�
1/1/2015
guest I prefer Elon's way of speaking. More thoughtful, with pauses to consider various points. Steve is a great speaker, but he definitely comes off as a salesman type.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. When I first listened to EM speak I was underwhelmed. However, I have learned to appreciate his pauses that indicates he is considering the question before speaking. Then he proceeds to answer the question ver directly. Now I feel he comes off as quite genuine.�
1/1/2015
guest To be fair, I didn't say that I wished Elon spoke in Steve's style of speaking. I said I wished that he interviewed as well. I can't imagine that anyone would say that Elon interviews better than Steve. You can be direct and genuine and thoughtful and still handle yourself in an interview better than Elon does most times.�
1/1/2015
guest +1
To the uninitiated, Elon is difficult to listen to... I remember watching his TED talk and being turned off from the stock initially (unfortunately!) because of the lack of certainty in his tone. It took a while to understand that it was quite the opposite, it's because he likes to measure his thoughts to be as truthful and accurate as possible, albeit a little over-optimistic on timelines.�
1/1/2015
guest Yes, that's true. There is more to "interviewing well" than just style of speaking. That's just one thing I picked up on as a difference and commented on it. I shouldn't have implied that was the factor you were thinking of.
Since we're on it, what characteristics does Elon display during interviews that you notice as needing improvement? Just wondering.
edit:
Sorry, this was directed towards Citizen-T. I should have quoted.�
1/1/2015
guest Yep. Elon's interviews are the best of any person I've seen due to his thoughtful insight and clarity.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. To an engineer's ears, listening to Elon's interviews is a breath a fresh air. He hesitates because he's thoughtful. You can almost feel the branching and pruning process going on in his head, as he evaluates all the implications of the question in parallel, and then zooms in to what is essential.
Yes, there are more articulate people out there who are also thoughtful, like Steve Jurvetson, but you can tell who is the money guy and who is the maker (not that Elon doesn't know about money...)�
1/1/2015
guest Elon has also gotten substantially better as a speaker in the last 3 years. He doesn't stutter nearly as much as he once did, but still retains his thoughtful approach to answering questions.�
1/1/2015
guest Strangely it was the exact opposite for me. I was immediately captivated. His approach, thought process, and demeanor instantly set him apart from any other CEO I'd ever seen, and I was enthralled. It was like he was speaking my language.
And since you mentioned the topic of entering a stock position, I have to say that it was during a long distance drive that I first saw his TED interview. I was immediately hooked. It was the first Elon Musk video I'd seen. By the end of the drive I had consumed a dozen more interviews with him. When I arrived at my destination I sold all the stock I had in another tech company and split it between SCTY and TSLA. That was March 2013.
I do not argue that it was a decision with only a few hours thought behind it, and one that wasn't backed by any scrutiny of quarterly statements.
I invested in the man, and in almost 18 months since then, he has only impressed me further. Investing in Elon Musk has become an intensely personal experience for me. Keeping aside the fact that I've got more money invested in Elon Musk than I ever had in any other single stock and I sleep better at night than I ever have, but I feel connected to him and his vision in a way I've not felt as an adult.
Apologies for this turning as sappy as it did... =)�
1/1/2015
guest +1!!
I have no doubt the fact that I hear him as if we are having a conversation is mainly due to the fact that we are both engineers.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. He has the measured tone and pacing of a scientist. You can actually see his mind at work, actually thinking about the question, its implications and his anwer. No catch phrases, pat answers or reading from a script that you hear from politicians all the time.�
1/1/2015
guest Agree! Elon is himself a highly compelling electrifying vehicle for his ideas and ideals.
:wink:
And that is worth some money. Think about it, that's worth some money. // Paul Simon :smile:�
1/1/2015
guest I learned an early investing lesson to really dig into companies and learn everything about it before investing into them. I dipped my toes weeks after discovering Tesla, but it took months of research sifting through years of Elon articles/videos before I answered all the questions in my mind about the vision and risks. Once I did decided to commit given the massive risk/reward imbalance, boy did that Markowitz portfolio theory go out the window.
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And now I'm curious, how many of us here at TMC are engineers? I suppose Elon's talking style naturally connects with us technical folk who understand he's not BS-ing. Also doesn't hurt that he's bringing these cool world-changing technologies to life in very methodical, realistic steps... I have the biggest engineering-mancrush on him.�
1/1/2015
guest +1 engineer here�
1/1/2015
guest One more here..
Later moved to Technical Sales..
First time doing a significant investment in a stock. (and buying a car anywere near to this pricerange�
1/1/2015
guest I'm close, an astrophysicist.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm sure us engineers are heavily over-represented at TMC. Elon Musk is unusual in that he is a CEO who can geek out in great detail about the science and engineering behind the product he sells.�
1/1/2015
guest And then after his answer he thinks it again and finishes with his Kermit nod.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm a physicist, not an engineer.�
1/1/2015
guest �
1/1/2015
guest "Dammit Jim! I'm a Doctor, not a Bricklayer!"
Actually, +1 biomedical engineer here.�
1/1/2015
guest Woot to all the engineers! I'll circle back around and say that I'm a semiconductor process engineer.�
1/1/2015
guest +1
Another Engineer :biggrin:�
1/1/2015
guest have an engineering degree, but it hasn't been used in more than a decade.�
1/1/2015
guest Another key difference between Elon and other CEOs: he answers the question asked. If you ever take media training, you learn that all questions are simply a vehicle for restating one of your talking points (no more than 3 talking points per interview, thank you). The art is transitioning quickly from the question asked to one of the relevant talking points.
Elon didn't take that media training course. Thank goodness.�
1/1/2015
guest A Software Engineer here. I got started with NY Times' Broderline reporting. Was throughly impressed by Elon's style of rebuking that piece of bs. Once I started watching one of Musk's videos, I just couldn't stop myself. Luckily family was away at that time. Over a span of a month I basically watched every single Musk video out there. Even though there were quite a bit of overlaps in the content, I was completely mesmerized by the content and his style. Somehow it resonated with me every single time.
Before seeing Musk I would refuse to invest in any single company and put all savings in index funds (IJH/IJR). But now I have 100% of my non-401k savings in TSLA/SCTY. I wanted to move my 401k too but couldn't as I never switched companies� Right now saving up money to buy LEAPs in case any silly downturns happen, like the one we saw early this year from 250 to 180.
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A related dynamic I noticed: Pretty much most of the pure finance type guys were/are all short Tesla. There are numerous examples from Jim Chanos, Andrew Left of Citron, Jim Cramer/Dough Kass on CNBC, Cory Johnson on Bloomberg, Logical Thought/John Petersen on Seeking Alpha.
What I find amusing is that they all think Finance is primary driver of value creation, while ability to build products is somehow secondary. For example they all think that Big Auto can crush Tesla away by throwing a bunch of money into battery research. Another example: Logical Thought thinks that anyone with $5Bil capital can crush Amazon away by advertising lower prices. Thus Amazon has zero pricing power and will never be profitable.
We Engineers either consciously or sub-consciously understand it's not all about capital. Building a successful product or company takes vision, leadership, business acumen, execution, loyal employees, and a myriad other things that money can't buy.
So we get Tesla. Most financial folks don't.
PS: Tesla is hard to fully comprehend as it is. But SolarCity takes it to a whole another level IMHO. It's not easy to get it. Quite the opposite, it's rather very easy to come to wrong conclusions with it.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm a Computer Engineering Technologist, and Telecommunications Technician, and Emergency Medical Technician.
I really like the genuine feeling I get from hearing Elon talk, though I'll admit he has definitely improved in the past few years.
I invested in Tesla almost as soon as I started doing any independent investing at all (I do have an investment broker who handles some of my money, I "play" with the rest myself) I would have happily invested in Tesla back in the Roadster days (and how I wish I had!) but at that point I hadn't started doing any investment at all (though I was paying close attention to Tesla as a company!) As it is, I first bought at the bottom after the car fires a year ago or so (around $130) and have added on a couple of dips since (nothing above $200 yet, but that will come soon I'm sure)�
1/1/2015
guest
It is interesting that finance guys fail to see not only car potential, but also some brilliant financial engineering done by Tesla finance guys
For me, my engineering experience was critical when deciding to invest in Tesla. I was blown away with the Tesla power train design superiority over ugly inefficient internal combustion engine. Battery is the key to making such design possible.
Elon made engineering and engineers cool again. It is about time�
1/1/2015
guest Hand raised. Been following since 2008 when MS was just a dream. Had all of my (small at the time 401k) in it since the beginning. I've flown model aircraft and raced model cars. I knew when those transitioned from NiMH to LiPo that full sized cars were not far behind. Run times went from 5 min to 30+ min.
EV is basically the same thing just scaled up�
1/1/2015
guest Was a biomedical engineer in college, tho now i'm a post doctoral fellow in immunology.�
1/1/2015
guest Does Computer Security Engineer count?�
1/1/2015
guest Software engineer. Undergrad in EE. Not yet broken personal rule of no more than 5% of portfolio in any one stock. But might break it with Tesla on dips.�
1/1/2015
guest Engineer...firmware (toys are fun!). We did a show of hands early on at a LEAF gathering. Room full of hands. I was worried for a time, that only engineers would buy these cars. Glad it's not turning out that way!�
1/1/2015
guest I'm no engineer. I confess, I'm solidly rooted in advertising and marketing (which is of little use to Tesla as of yet). So my rationale is I'm an expert in trends, behavioral analysis, and making people buy something they don't need or cannot afford... hence Tesla hasn't needed to hire me or anyone like me.
And I truely appreciate how Elon thinks and speaks -- I have benefitted greatly from simply listening to him (every call I can)... since 2009.�
1/1/2015
guest Electrical engineer and a long-term TSLA investor.
Just saw on Facebook, that Elon visited the German chancellery - hopefully to have chat with Angela Merkel about future EV incentives:
...hopefully...�
1/1/2015
guest Used to be ASIC design engineer a decade ago. Now more of a strategy and negotiation position. Most people just call it sales and marketing.�
1/1/2015
guest So, how come Steve Jurvetson ("the money guy", as I called him) understood Elon and invested big in him, while many other finance-oriented people didn't and still don't? Well, it may be because Steve is also an engineer:
So, I sold Steve Jurvetson short in my previous post. Both Elon and Steve obviously have what it takes to understand both the hard (engineering) and the soft (business) realities of the world, which helps explain both of their outsized success.�
1/1/2015
guest Hey guys. I'll throw in my street cred, too! I'm a bioinformatician (data analysis & programming), and used to be a molecular biology lab rat. So, I have some sense that big ideas can be easy (ha!), but implementing all of the horrid details can be extremely difficult.�
1/1/2015
guest Speaking of the technical fanbase of Tesla, a geeky (in a good way) Russian millionaire. I wonder if he's a part of TMC!
How to sneak a Tesla into Russia | The Verge�
1/1/2015
guest Elon Musk visited Germany and talked to chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin.
Does anybody have further information on topics discussed?
I was surprised about Angie beeing interested in information straight from the horse's mouth and inviting Elon Musk.
Maybe talking only to german car industry is too boring for her in the long run
Anybody knows where Elon Musk is heading after Germany?
By the way Chancellor Angela Merkel has a degree in physics
Tesla Motors Europe on Twitter: Today @elonmusk visited the offices of the chancellery in Berlin. http://t.co/cz5xamDzeg�
1/1/2015
guest Looks like we are now making a run to break-out and up. We'll see if it works this time.�
1/1/2015
guest I think we should all stop making these comments because it is causing a bunch of negative juju on the stock... like, right after you said this the stock went flat... (I am just joking, but it is frustrating to see it keep toying with us like this.�
1/1/2015
guest Every time TSLA has bumped into resistance near the ATH, it has finished the day with a slump. Now that I have said it the opposite will happen, right?�
1/1/2015
guest Yes, the stock is frustrating today.
Very light volume.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm in favor of a contrarian "pop". Like yesterday....�
1/1/2015
guest Well, here we are finally in the last hour... and we have been dying to break 264 and have it actually stick all day... 264-266 seems to be off limits for this stock right now...
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You know, in fairness, today has been a down day for the rest of the market... I suppose we can't really complain right now...�
1/1/2015
guest Did he actually talk to Merkel? Would make sense if he visited the chancellery, but it is not mentioned explicitely on the twitter post - is there another source?�
1/1/2015
guest And we have an all time closing high again, looks like we are getting used to that as noone has mentioned it�
1/1/2015
guest Despite being an avowed technophobe, one of my favorite writers (favorite before the show, yes I'm a hipster GRRM fan) just wrote what I feel about my Model S:
Selfishly, this has my geek-awesomeness-o-meter on overload.
'Game of Thrones' author drives custom purple Tesla�
1/1/2015
guest Awesome. I'm also a pre-show hipster ASoIaF fan, and this made my day. Purple, so perhaps GRRM is subtly telling us that he favors House Dondarrion?�
1/1/2015
guest The video is a much better portrayal of the story than the article, definitely watch the video
Really cool! Thanks for the share!
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Hadn't had the chance to post about it yet, but I was certainly happy. I was avoiding saying something BEFORE market close to avoid jinxing it and the stock crashing... It was sooooo close to sticking at 264 and then just plunged at the end it was so exhausting to watch! Haha! If you notice right after the close it dropped immediately in the AH. I am So glad it held out just before the bell and we didn't have a repeat drop like Tues.�
1/1/2015
guest And here it is! Very cool car!
�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry, I did not find any further news.
I did only find this tweet on twitter.
Good thing is German government does not refuse to talk to TM and EM is able to depict his vision of a transition to sustainable transport�
1/1/2015
guest Well after feeling confident that we were more likely to go down in price before we go up, I have sold off my 20 Sept @ 270 calls and will likely buy then back if we get a decent pullback. Even if the stock goes up from here, I am satisfied with my 57% return on those calls
Given my relative inexperience in options, I will take what I can get at this stage in the game.
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And I am more than willing to be happily wrong on this decision since I would take a win as a win... since I am not really as worried... I was likely to want to roll them forward anyway, so I will see about a decent time during the day to make a new purchase.�
1/1/2015
guest I've got this song running through my head... http://www.bands.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-120206-020.mp3
Just need to find a better last line.�
1/1/2015
guest Nothing can stop the Tesla-naire fooooorce!�
1/1/2015
guest Love the fact that as of today all the Tesla short sellers are underwater. Stick that in your ICE and burn it.�
1/1/2015
guest Ugh, two days ago i thought we were ready for a move up (so many potential news stories, and you can only sit so long at the all time high before something happens!), and got 272.5 calls. What a mistake, i learned that classic lesson of "go farther out in time and deeper in strike than you anticipate". That's such a good mantra. Watch it end up at 272.00. For what it's worth, I'm now selling a bunch of the 275's to try to break even.�
1/1/2015
guest Gotta love that.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm pretty much all about buy and hold on Tesla, so even though I wont be selling any shares on the move since earnings, I'm quite pleased to see this particular large short-term move since earnings for it's potential impact on Tesla's actual business. Far more than any other stock I've ever owned, I think the stock price on Tesla can actually impact perception of the brand and product, and so product sales (more on this at the end).
Since the stock rebounded from ~$180 to ~$215, I thought we had a 3-6 month window of vulnerability where the stock could drop to $150, perhaps lower. I had felt pretty confident with the release of the Model X, we would start a period of sustained good news leading up to the Model 3 release that would support the stock (X release, X reviews, substantial increases in volumes with S/X sales, Model 3 development coming into focus, possibility of Chinese and/or European factory becoming tangible...). I was just a little concerned about these few months leading up to the Model X release. Not so much concerned about a drop in TSLA related to Tesla itself, but the market as a whole. I figured a 20+% market selloff might happen, taking Tesla reflexively down even more as a recent high flyer.. perhaps 30 or 40%. I just did not want to see the glow all the positive sentiment around Tesla Motors/TSLA gives the Model S turn into a sort of hangover of seeming naive giddiness and "hype" about the stock bleeding into some like souring of perception of Tesla's products (and even EVs as a whole).
I say this because I believe at this point in time the perception of Elon, Tesla Motors/TSLA, Tesla's products, and even EVs blur into each other for a large number observers. When any one of these is seen as cutting edge, successful and sought after, it puts the others in the same light. I think it's fair to say the public's discovery of Elon Musk and the success of Tesla Motors/TSLA has been a continuing rather pervasive ad campaign for Tesla's products. Conversely, when any one of these is knocked as "a bunch of hype" "a bubble of starry eyed foolish adoration ready to be popped" (and, of course, it does not take anything real for some to try to create this perception) I think it shades perception on the others in the same way. With the stock up at $270, even if there is a big market selloff before the X is released, if we break below $200 I doubt it will be by much or for very long... and I don't think that would take much of any shine off the perception of the Tesla's products.�
1/1/2015
guest when people say "break below 200 it's a good deal", or in your words, "if we break below $200 I doubt it will be by much or for very long" i always want to add this: a move that drastic is not within the normal volatility of tesla, which fluctuates 5-10 dollars in a week. Therefore, in order to get to 200 we would need a significant piece of news and that piece of news may or may not change the fundamental value of tesla. If we did get a piece of news that took us to under 200, there's no way to really know that the stock would rebound because the news would be so substantial. For instance, that news piece could be that the car catches on F*re, and no one will buy the cars because they spontaneously combust. When people thought that, they didn't just think that tesla was going to reduce its earnings, they thought that tesla would go bankrupt.
Hmm upon second thought, a large market correction could make the move that you're referring to, and I guess in that case the price of tesla would be a tremendous deal. One thing about that tho- i remember several times during market corrections that tesla was the safe spot- the one stock that didn't decrease during the market correction.�
1/1/2015
guest Looks like they even choose their partners following TA principles:
U n i c o m
U n i c o rn
Sorry, couldn�t resist.�
1/1/2015
guest Very good, Robert and FluxCap. Meanwhile, here's the song being sung by the shorts today: JACK JONES-THE RACE IS ON. - YouTube�
1/1/2015
guest mershaw, as I wrote, I was discussing the impact of a large market correction, 20+%, not a drop in TSLA related to Tesla itself. I'm not sure there have been any 20+% market corrections since Tesla went public... thus I know of no examples of Tesla outperforming in such a correction. If there was such a correction, I think there would be a knee jerk overselling of Tesla based on it's huge run the past year and a half and its valuation being about earnings far further out in the future than the average stock (for much of the market's participants big selloffs lead to nervousness, which leads to conservatism, which leads to higher skepticism about what's not right in front of them), followed by a faster than average recovery based on the strength of its underlying individual prospects once market nervousness stops accelerating. I base this on my experience from an earlier long term holding (Celgene) which had tremendous growth unfold over many years, including some market selloffs, and casual observation of "stock market darlings" during selloffs.
as to Tesla related news... absolutely agree a news event with that kind of impact on the stock has to be evaluated to see what if any impact it has on the stock's fundamental value.�
1/1/2015
guest Charged EVs | California bill gives renters the right to install charging stations
So this seems good.�
1/1/2015
guest Pretty darn good week. If the stock is doing this well so far, the final Gigafactory decision and Model X reveal should be pure rocket fuel�
1/1/2015
guest http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2014/08/29/at-11th-hour-tesla-igafactory-deal-is-stalling-in.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+industry_7+%28Industry+Technology%29�
1/1/2015
guest Article summary: California wants to do a deal, but Tesla hasn't told them what it wants. Really, guys? Is there anything more important on your plates right now?�
1/1/2015
guest I guess this means that absent some legislative miracle, the first Gigafactory will be at the site in Nevada.
I hope Tesla makes a decision soon. This process is dragging on, and it's attracting adverse political attention from activists.�
1/1/2015
guest And, I thought, "All you TA guys do is talk about unicorns!" Totally missed the name of the company�
1/1/2015
guest These lawmakers need a lesson in corporate negotiation.
Tesla's non response means that the other two state's offer is so much better. Asking Tesla what they want means they want something that's just good enough by a little bit to beat the other two states. Usually you should call their bluff when there's a silent treatment. But in Tesla's case, Everyone already know that Texas and Nevada has better offers. What california need to do is take the initiative with an even better written offer. a blank legislature says it'll be corrected to death.
Complete fail.�
1/1/2015
guest USAToday is reporting that the California legislature did not take action on the Tesla Gigafactory incentives before they adjourned their session:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/08/31/tesla-gigafactory-incentives-california/14882879/
I'm more confident now that Gigafactory #1 will be at the site in Nevada.�
1/1/2015
guest After Norway, massive incentives for Electric Vehicles in the Netherlands: Rotterdam Introduces World�s Best EV Incentives
Opportunities can bring the price of a new Nissan LEAF down from �24,110 to just �7,450!
Examples from the referenced article:
LEAF e-NV200 List Price (excl. VAT)
�19,926 �20,490
Cost after incentives � ROTTERDAM
�7,450 �4,950 Savings
63% 76% Cost after incentives � AMSTERDAM
�8,350 �5,650 Savings
58% 72% �
1/1/2015
guest is it just me, or does the e-NV200 look even MORE hideous than the LEAF does? I get that it is supposed to be a commercial vehicle... but, YUK!�
1/1/2015
guest One of the few times I don't hold TSLA as I was hoping to get in after the next drop off an ATH. I suppose that's probably still out there somewhere.
Regardless, great to hear an update on the factory ramp up.
I wonder where Tesla is on a Gen 3 concept. The X was revealed something like 2.5 years before it'll start shipping (and the S even farther than that before shipping). If the Gen3 ships in late 2017, I wonder when concept pictures get released?�
1/1/2015
guest There was a "timeline" that was leaked/revealed/talked about somewhere that said they would start the clay models this year, do a bunch of prototyping next year (2015), alphas would come the following (2016) and then betas would be after that (late 2016/early 2017). I think* (please don't hold me to it) that was the general timeline to making a car from scratch...
Model S was first concepted in what? 2010? Released in 2012. The Model X was first concepted in 2012 and will release in 2015 (one year delayed on purpose). So it seems to me like if they are going for a 2017 release then we should see the car in 2015 for the concept.
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Add to that the first Roadster reveal was in 2006 with the release in 2008... so that gives further weight to a 2 year from concept to release time for Tesla.�
1/1/2015
guest I believe it was Franz late last year or early this year who first "mentioned" that they wanted to debut the Model ? concept at Detroit 2015, which TM quickly retracted officially. My gut feel is they'll officially debut Model X at Detroit instead, and show off M? closer to end of 2015 after MX hype has died down.�
1/1/2015
guest They wasted no time during the build up for the S in revealing the X. I don't think it would impact the X sales in the slightest and would HELP the hype since they would have a real concept that gets the claimed mileage at the size they mentioned and finally give people something real to latch on to. Keep in mind that the reveal event for the X happened in Feb 2012, 4 months before the first delivery of the S... and it had no tangible impact on the S sales. Everyone knows that the Model 3 is not coming for another 3 years at the soonest and any concept release now would just make Tesla stronger as a company. (Plus share value will go through the roof!
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I will say however that it would be VERY anti-Tesla like to reveal the Model 3 at detroit... They have always held a private event first...
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PS Almost to 280$ we are now up 10$ for the day (3.73%)�
1/1/2015
guest Closed friday below 270.
Opened today at 275.50
Now over 282
Short squeeze???�
1/1/2015
guest Have you noticed that ever since SA was removed from Yahoo news, the shorts haven't had the readership that discouraged the less informed? TSLA has been climbing since that decision and the shorts have seemed to increase their posts (out of frustration) on SA but to no avail. It is pretty amusing to imagine how desperate they are becoming and wondering how it will play out.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry, I am totally getting no work done right now... thanks TSLA haha!
But yeah, I see it, I was busy posting in other places
This movement is shaping up to be just as good as a Morgan Stanley (AJ) upgrade. So now we have two AJs and a JA to keep tabs on
If anyone is a customer of Stifel Nicolaus I would love to know what else is talked about in their model to hit the pricings as they are. Because 400 at 12 months is a pretty heafty pricing to put out there for something coming in 2017... that means they are expecting much more than 400 by then right?�
1/1/2015
guest Walter Talks to the Shorts
Nuts! - YouTube�
1/1/2015
guest It seems a part of their "discussion with management" is the most recent earnings call, so information we've all acclimated to already. However, their report has some interesting incremental tidbits from their tour last month that align with the other recent analyst notes, here are a few:
- Our sense is TSLA remains in a test stagewith respect to in-house energy storage opportunities as well as the potential
partnership and/or supply of third parties. However, as we did have the
opportunity to view a marked off section of the factory that will eventually
house the production building blocks for TSLA's energy storage business,
perhaps this is not as far off as we are anticipating.
- A new stop on the tour relative to our 2013 visit, we had the opportunity tolook at battery cell modules (each with 450 cells) prior to their inclusion in the
16-module battery pack. Management noted the current Model S battery
pack is comprised of the "second generation" of battery cells, with expected
material improvement in cell chemistry every 2-4 years on average. Heat
cycling appears the most critical element to sustaining battery life, which
seems is key contributing differentiator between TSLA's battery systems
relative to competitors.
- We had the opportunity to tour TSLA's body assembly line (currently just
Model S), which is comprised of over 120 robots and generates a new
vehicle every five minutes (roughly 2 hours to go through line).�
1/1/2015
guest Soooo just a little quick math here, assuming they are only doing the max 48 hours (it's a law... don't look at me... of course they could be pulling over time or split into two shifts...) in a week per shift that is 2,880 minutes which would be 576 cars in that time period. Anyone know how many hours they are actually pulling at the factory? That would tell you the current run rate overall. But running 2 shifts would be more than the 1k target, which I am sure they are not at right now... even 10 hours at 5 minutes a piece would be 600. To pull off 800 they would need to be pulling ~67 hours a week at that run rate or ~13 hours a day (assuming 5 day work week)�
1/1/2015
guest Tesla has been running two shifts for a long time. Also, keep in mind they could possibly run the "body assembly line" 24 hours a day since it's robotic and doesn't require a lot of people to support it on graveyard shift. Just a thought.�
1/1/2015
guest Oh, good call, I read that as the final assembly... wrong part of the plant
--------------
Actually, looking at how deeply it dropped in price it looks like that could have been triggered by some hefty sell orders that were set to go just before 285$... RSI dropped all the way down to 3 something at one point which took the stock from way overbought to way oversold... Very weird to watch...�
1/1/2015
guest Nice little comedy over on CNBC with the old guy complaining about range and not wanting to wait to charge on his drive from Boston to New York. Claimed he looked at buying one.�
1/1/2015
guest I don't believe so. Volume on previous squeezes were a lot higher�
1/1/2015
guest Firstly, thanks for posting all those comments from the new report.
As to GF and Model III not being priced into this $400 price target, I'd take that with a very large grain of salt. I think Albertine was not thinking it through when he made that comment. Here's why:
a $400 price target for late 2015 (presumably a 12 month target) implies he thinks the stock will be roughly $500 two years later in 2017 where he's forecasted eps of $8.28. That implies a pe of 60 (or 48 based on $400/share). So while his 2017 eps of $8.28 may be based on Model S/X, a pe of 60 only makes sense is if you expect tremendous future growth after 2017, and that is based on Gen 3 and the GF. (fwiw, I suspect he "sandbagged" his 111K Model S/X sales for 2017, but nonetheless even if 2017 eps are $12 or $15, as I see it, it takes a Gen 3 driven large pe to justify a $400 price target).
Not to get away from the main point... big target, plus directly taking on the nonsense of "the big boys are going to eat Tesla's lunch any moment," plus, wow re $280+�
1/1/2015
guest Cheers!!! What a day.�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats to all longs on another ATH. I'm just disappointed no one posted the picture of Elon with champagne. During times like these, I think it's important to remember those less fortunate than us - the shorts, the bears, and the FUDsters. TSLA's continued success must be tough on both their wallets and their egos. Instead of gloating, perhaps we can lend them a hand - for example, consider picking up 159 shares of AXPW for the amount that a single share of TSLA appreciated today.�
1/1/2015
guest $284 closing. #holymoly�
1/1/2015
guest I bought a bunch of $265 weekly puts, just because.
Wish me bad luck.�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats all! Closed all my LEAPS throughout the day. Selling is the hardest part...�
1/1/2015
guest I bought some weekly $290's first thing this am when I saw the pre market. They ended up being 4 baggers. I didn't buy a lot, it was more of a test if theory.
The reason I did this was because of this video that DaveT found and shared with us this spring.
Tesla Million Dollar Trade�
1/1/2015
guest I woke up fully intending to do this (buy weeklies), even texted Techmaven my closing price prediction of $285. But I didn't -- was too busy. Oh well, my core long holdings are looking sweet as ever!
Dave said $290 this quarter on our last post-ER Google Hangout, and I do believe he will be right!
Congrats folks.�
1/1/2015
guest My first 10x stock as of today, yay! I bought all my TSLA at $27.75 in Aug 2012.�
1/1/2015
guest And held on to all of it until now?! Congratulations. I wish I had been so patient. Took me some time to learn.�
1/1/2015
guest This is so wonderful, I am smiling ear-to-ear for you. I bought my first batch around $40 in March 2013, just before I got the MS I ordered in December. And now I am practically a compulsive buyer of TSLA.
�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry, seems like a waste of money... I keep trying to tell people how wrong they are in their thinking without degrading them (too much) because I hope they will see the light... But seems like they never do.�
1/1/2015
guest Actually that was a joke, no need to buy AXPW. Screw those guys.�
1/1/2015
guest Holy crap, if I am getting this correctly he made a trade the evening prior of 1 million$ and gained 500k overnight? That's some serious balls man... I don't even remember the circumstances behind Jan 16th to even recall what was happening that day that caused the pre-market jump. But I am confused how his trading for something overnight translates to you buying something on open? What am I missing here.
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Sorry, I got that, it was clearly a joke. Haha! I was just chiming in that I still don't understand them... and can't seem to grasp some of their logic in this... And yeah, I would never trust a thing that Peterson suggests or has a hand in...�
1/1/2015
guest No he made $1m one day and $0.5 the next, not clear how much he put on the line initially from watching the video I think optionswise he must have made several hundred percent on average. The event was a pre-announcement of increased production guidance at the NA auto show in Detroit�
1/1/2015
guest Oh yeah, I thought that might have been it, but I wasn't sure on the timing exactly. That was a win for just about everyone here since most all of us were reading those tea leaves with pretty great clarity.
But that still doesn't explain how that had anything to do with buying the 290s for the week at the open and netting a 400% profit off them. That means he bought them around .25 and sold them around the 1$ mark (I am assuming he didn't get the perfect top here... but I also don't have fully clarity on the price action on those options...) In either case, any explanation into the theory you were working with would be appreciated, Theshadows
Not that I really intend to trade weeklies, I just don't feel confident in my abilities to work on that kind of timetable so I think for now I will stick with leaps or monthlies. But I assume the logic would work for any trade right?�
1/1/2015
guest Exactly. I remember it well and I watched the video and he was buying when and what I was selling. I was locking in my profits afraid of a pull back and he saw from the volume and the price action that the stock was ready to take off like a rocket.
This morning I knew from pre market rise and the $400 pt upgrade that today was going to be big. I knew this upgrade was going to be different because the report was first hand from a factory tour.
Then when the market opened with nice volume and a drop that quickly recovered I thought we would see a nice rally. I bought them within the first 15 minutes. I sold 1/4 in the begin stages of the big drop to get my investment back to ride the rest. I almost sold the rest of them at the bottom of the drop but held on because the volume was dropping as the price kept falling.
I still have those 290's. Either I will break even with them tomorrow and be satisfied or really happy.
I sold all of my 275's at 3:59 to lock in my gains. I didn't want to do it but would rather regret taking profits than to see a sharp pull back tomorrow am. I think tomorrow's open is going to be a war between the shorts and longs. I'm expecting big volitility, I think the momentum will keep is going but who knows what will happen.
I viewed this as a relatively low risk play. The reason is we had a good consolidation and there are a lot of catalyst on the horizon despite the recent run up. The momentum has returned and I feel that a lot of people want in on tsla again.
That being said I am nervous about Q3 ER and plan to have nothing near term going into them except for selling a covered call or two to test the iv crush theory. If I'm going to test that, I want to do it this ER and not on the year end. I think next year is going to be amazingly awesome!
Disclaimer: I made a lot of stupid moves this spring which means I am probably still making them.�
1/1/2015
guest It's fine, I take everything together along with my own thoughts and decisions... and this forum is really an awesome way for us all to learn and grow together
I am still playing all of this off as the explosive growth that I was expecting after the cup and handle (which was most assuredly NOT a double top) so I anticipated we would get a push to send us higher we just needed some kind of catalyst. People took the China news as a catalyst on Friday (which hey, the market is desperate for news... I won't knock em) and we had already had the first report in about the positives of the factory upgrades coming along. Then today with the new PT and factory news this was certainly the REAL catalyst I was expecting. IF we retrace the last run up 100% punch for punch we could see it hit 317 (ish) for a 161.8% extension off the last low. So With the proper catalysts that is where I would expect the price to move to before you really risk super unknown territory. I personally plan to ditch whatever pre Q3 stuff I have either at 317 or a bit before it (I am thinking 300) and call it quits until post Q3... there is just too many things that screams to me to stay away from Q3...
Anyway, at best I might do an October option to profit off the rise to 300 if we don't see it happen in the next week or so and then I am going to just wait it out. Seems like the cool headed sane play.
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PS: What is the trading platform he is using in his videos because it seems WAAAAAY more robust than what I am using? Unless I have to pay for it... in which case... no thanks... I have to get most of my extra charting stuff from other sources, which is really annoying.�
1/1/2015
guest I keep this .jpg on my desktop
& this on my rear :biggrin:
�
1/1/2015
guest The news confirming the factory ramp-up is excellent :biggrin: Positive news on Model X and Gigafactory is going to put even more Gigahurt on the short sellers...�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats my TMC investor friends! So, what happens now from our shorting friends? Will we get a new round of shorts buying now to replace the ones we just lost. Are they going to get in the way of what analysts have called 'The Animal' or 'The Train'??�
1/1/2015
guest I expect a new round of shorts, because many people still do not understand Tesla Motors' products and long-term plans. If Model X is successful and construction of the Gigafactory proceeds, this cohort of short sellers will be crushed, leading to yet another round. I suspect that it will take a wildly successful Model 3, along with broad public adoption of BEVs, to utterly annihilate shorts driven primarily by denial, doubt, or ignorance.�
1/1/2015
guest There will always be shorts, just as there will always be longs. And I'm pleased to say that I've been long for a very long, long time�
1/1/2015
guest I expect you are both right. I see a new round of FUD starting now with some gap filling and a psychological barrier with program selling at $300. We had that when trying to breach $200 as I recall. I sold some LEAPS ( the ones that were very sickly red 2 months ago...amazing what an injection of anti FUD analyst reports can do) and $270 weeklies that I purchased last week.
Good luck to all going forward. Not going to 'jinx it' by celebrating....no songs, no poems.......:wink:�
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