Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 32

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now we all have to digest freeing the patents. I am processing it. My unconscious bias jumps into full gear and I see some very good sides to today's announcement.:wink:

    Less hampering of progress. New (cool) way of doing business. Great PR for Tesla. Less wealth transfer to lawyers. Speeding up of ev availability to drivers.

    The only downside would be potential revenue loss due to loss of licencing fees. This downside is non existent due to low likelihood of anyone being interested in paying for Tesla technology.

    Not sure how unbiased market will react.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong

    When I read through the comments of Elons blog entry I slowly realized what an incredibly smart move it was. I think he will inspire a whole generation of engineers. And I'm talking about the engineers who truly want to change the world. And aren't we investing in Tesla because we think it's technology could change the world in the best possible way a manufacturing company is able to. Think about what Tesla could achieve if out of every engineering class they could choose the top 1% to work for them. I think this is what will happen in the not so distant future.

    By the way I am not concerned about the valuation of the company. My valuation model and as far as I know none of the analysts or TMC-memebers valuation models included considerable revenue from IP licensing.

    Last but not least this announcement will generate additional demand from all the right people who will buy the car for all the right reasons. They will be advocates for Tesla and the best salesmen for their products for the foreseeable future.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    BMW having talks with Tesla Motors !

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/13/bmw-tesla-motors-idUSWEB00OCX20140613?type=companyNews&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews

    THANK YOU BMW !!! you made my day ! been driving BMW since I got my driver licence 21 years ago and, yes I am still fully committed to the company because not only they are buliding fabulous cars but they are indeed pioneers in the field of innovation, particularly connected driving (ConnectedDrive). All these years I've been asking myself why for God sake they are not jumping into Tesla's business because they (BMW) have the potential of being one of the leaders in disruptive tech! and today, the Day has come, finally! Congrats BMW! BMW & Tesla Motors = 4ever ! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't get ahead of yourself on the BMW front. They were there to ask about how to collaborate and how to improve EV's. Given that the i3 was all they could come up with, I think they realized Tesla knows more and needs their help. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a partnered Tesla/BMW gen 3 car like the Subaru/Toyota BRZ/FRS relationship.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gen III with reinforced carbon fiber body and Tesla drivetrain would be great!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    + with the intelligent AWD called xDrive built-in in future Tesla vehicles. why not?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because Tesla already said that their AWD will be the best in the world, so no need for BMW here :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually the Tesla AWD is an AWD System for EVs. I would call it e-AWD with no axis connecting the front wheels and the rear wheels. On the contrary the BMW x-drive is a common AWD for ICE car having only one motor.
    Of course the e-AWD is much better because all the AWD system is electronically controlled with no inertia due to the axis connecting the wheels and the ICE engine. This means much more speed of execution of the commands on all the single wheels of the e-AWD with respect to the BMW x-drive.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. It's great they 'talked', but will they 'act' in this century? In this decade? IF all in the company are willing, then how fast can they change direction and make it happen? I've got doubts, but fingers crossed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd be happy if they just talked about charging infrastructure, which is now a joint concern. Both companies have a significant potential market with people who don't have privately owned parking. Limiting your market to people with garages and good power supplies is cutting out a big chunk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They might not want to move but regulations are forcing their hand. EU is imposing regulations on automakers fleets regarding Carbon emissions. German gov wants 1 mill ev cars by 2020.

    No need for all in the company to be willing. BMW is not a democracy. Only these people need to be willing.
    Dr.-Ing. Dr.-Ing. E.h. Norbert Reithofer
    Chairman of the Board of Managemen

    Dr. Friedrich Eichiner
    Finance

    Frank-Peter Arndt
    Production (until 31 March 2013

    Dr. - Ing. Herbert Diess
    Developmen

    Harald Kr�ger
    MINI, Motorcycles, Rolls-Royce, After Sales BMW Group (up to 31 March 2013)
    Production (as of 1 April 2013

    Dr. - Ing. Klaus Draeger
    Purchasing and Supplier Network

    Dr. Ian Robertson (HONDSC)
    Sales and Marketing BMW, Sales Channels BMW Group

    Milagros Cai�a Carreiro-Andree
    Human Resources

    Peter Schwarzenbauer
    MINI, BMW Motorrad, Rolls-Royce, Aftersales BMW Group (as of 1 April 2013)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Automakers all over the world are forced to move towards EVs. See for instance the effects of driving ICE cars on oceans.

    Each time you drive, your car's carbon emissions spread into the atmosphere and the oceans absorb a quarter of the world's carbon dioxide emissions annually. Here's another way of putting it: As atmospheric carbon dioxide rises, so it does in the ocean. This is bad, because lower pH levels make it hard for shelled organisms, such as clams, oysters, corals and some plankton, to live. When these backbones of the ocean die, the repercussions carry throughout the whole ecosystem (if coral reefs are unable to recover from, say, pounding storms, it would affect the million-or-so species that depend on them). Add that to present estimates of future carbon dioxide levels indicating the ocean could be nearly 150 percent more acidic by the 2100s.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OMG so many doctors
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Their bios are quite similar, with the exception of HR lady. They all spent their life and career at the company, so it must be quite difficult to be pushed into different direction, away from the course they worked so hard to advance. And having to bear the substantial cost of different direction.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In Germany PhDs are highly regarded, which is why it's been known for politicians to plagiarize their way to one. :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A PhD in Europe does not equal a PhD in North America. In Europe, they usually take 3-4 years while in NA it is usually 5-6.

    Sorry way off topic but just a FYI.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually in Italy for instance the PhD does not even exist. The Italian Degree has a value in between the Master and the PhD of the USA.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, um...didn't mean all 'literally'. All as in all that have the power to make this type of decision. But even so, ignoring the rest of the people in the company risks losing a few/many/a lot. Having been an employee before who was thought to be nothing more than a number, I can tell you it isn't really good for company moral to treat people like they are unimportant. So while not a democracy, it's not a dictatorship either. It's always nice to 'ask' even if the answer doesn't matter. Remember, you were the one who was all about the CEO being responsible for setting the tone in a company. Don't you think a CEO should 'consult' with their entire company on such a radical change in direction?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bosses listen if they want, but when it comes to the decision making process, my experience is more of a military dictatorship than democracy.:biggrin:

    On manufacturing sites, people are often a liability and a cost, so most sites tend to automate their process as much as possible. People might be more valued in different kind of businesses, like consultancies, or software businesses.

    I don't see CEO setting the tone as CEO establishing democratic ways in a business. I doubt Elon consulted many Tesla employees when releasing patents or deciding to build gigafactories. Not all employees need to have an input in strategic business decisions. Employees are likely to have some input in their local area of work.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the implication is also that Elon is willing to rely on Tesla's automobile design and engineer abilities in a more 1:1 scenario.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been thinking a lot about the 'patent release' recently. Since this may spark a spirit of at least some cooperation between Tesla and some other auto makers, what do form members think 'the market' will do to TSLA price if it is announced that MB or BMW are consudering collaberating on some EV projects...small (sharing some tech) or large ( joint GF or car)?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems to me that tsla price action relative to news events has become muted. I am convinced the next catalyst will be concrete news on Gigafactory partnerships.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or the unveiling of the Model X. I'm not sure which will come first. From the hints that Elon has been dropping I have a feeling that many of us may be left wanting to trade in our S's for the X. (And I'm a SUV hater too.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or have one of each! But I can't get my wife on board with that so far...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Off topic but seeing as I only post in this thread. I've completed my south east asia trip. Heading to Europe in august. Anyone stuck in office and want to meet for coffee?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Coming to Norway?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, Norway in the summer. I heard winter is brutal there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was online at 6:30 PDT, when the market opened. I was expecting a mild price rise, but had some other stocks I wanted to get into. I wish I'd gone with my gut and bought short term options in TSLA early! I eventually got some 220s when the stock was up 3.5%. I think we're getting some institutional buying, with them having come back from Memorial Day vacations and absorbing the mood around the patent move and BMW talks. Enough of this will trigger a bit of short covering; probably not a real squeeze, but enough to put upward pressure on the stock. Anyway, so far my strategy is working. The trick will be to get back out of those options at the right time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well that was a pleasant morning trip up to 215, wasn't it?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Rather than the patent announcement, I suspect the pop in price is related to the Model X update announcement that was sent to reservation holders. It confirmed they are going to produce the car as promised, but better, starting with prototypes in the fall.
    It also promises more updates "in the coming months" so I think this constitutes confirmation that the car is on schedule - the latest schedule. It's a good reason to see a pop in stock price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Between this and the solars, I'm pretty content.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone think it'll break $220 today?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And done.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yes it will :cool:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like the "old TSLA", remember when it was a momentum stock? Don't remember too many +$15 days though.
    My January 2016 $230 leaps have recovered 1/3 of their losses today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well outside of the bollinger band... I am having trouble imagining how it will also be up tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    PM me if you want pointers, a place to sleep or meet up!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    New ATH for me today. Plenty of room to run, not interested in getting defensive yet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla Tuesday?

    My LEAPs are green! My SEP 230 still red.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Define plenty? :) lol

    I definitely thought we'd stick around the 200's for a while longer. Will be interesting to see if we have a strong up trend over the coming weeks and retest the ATH by ER or if we stay range bound (210-230?).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guess this answers my question. It will help it go up!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Milestone day for me as well!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, crazy day! I suspect that the BMW/Nissan news is pushing up the price. 200/share held up so well that I think traders gave up on it going down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As much as I'd like to dip into options again... for your sakes I will stay our and stay with common shares because every time I do... I lose :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now is a bad time to buy options anyway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was so stressed at work today that I really couldn't enjoy this rally. I ended up selling to much too early when I got snippets. But, this dug me out of a big hole for June 21 calls so I'll take it.

    Are we on our way back up to the 230's and 240's with Gigafactory groundbreaking pending? Or is this purely technicals with a bit of a short squeeze and we go back down? No idea. I'll probably wait for a pull back, if it comes, and go in for first week of July calls. I do wish we had more flavor for just how many deliveries were made in China and UK.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe second week of August calls when they come available if you think Q2 ER/guidance may be good?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It might help if you trade a bit more, to reduce work stress.

    Since I started trading, no work stress for me any more, just trading stress, and I enjoy that one much more:biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ....And this is why I can't be a day trader. I am glad I didn't act on my instincts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your logic was sound but you could not have predicted MS report coming out confirming PT of $320 today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ha! My June 21 270's are actually coming back from the dead.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon Musk will be talking to CNBC at 4pm ET (17-6-2014).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto for my June 21 $265!

    My time delayed "free" June 21 $215-$270 spread is doing fantastic come-back!

    Good luck to all the longs! Play it cool!

    - - - Updated - - -

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ok, lunch is over, back to regular programming - breaking through the $235
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Deploying my new strategy of converting options to stock on days like this. Planning to hold it until we get big pull back. If it doesn't come then I made unleveraged gain with my common stock.

    Really glad I didn't sell some weeklies at the end of last week.

    If tomorrow flattens out I might try selling one.

    This is my new strategy from what I have learned from feb until now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We both watched our stock to LEAP strategy fall short but I am still holding my LEAPS. Keeping the faith for at least a little longer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pretty much any long strategy fails when the stock goes down and works when the stock goes up :).

    I bought Jan 2015 300's back when we were talking about the LEAPS strategy. They're still about 1/2 value even after today, which seems a little odd because I thought I bought them back when the stock was about the price it is now and thus the time decay seems overly large. Must be my memory is faulty, I'll have to go look up exactly when I bought. I'm right about that 6 months from expiration point where you're supposed to roll forward, so I'm hoping this run continues (perhaps prompted by other news, like the Gigafactory) and I can break even and roll into 2017 LEAPS
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It could be that implied volatility was significantly higher when you bought your LEAPS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was. There were several of us that did stock to LEAPS when the stock was about $230-$240 range as I recall.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IV is running very low currently at 43 - it peaked at ER last May at 138;
    If IV was 138 today, those J15 $300s would be worth 6x the value you see right now ($66 vs $11). The spike in IV was typically short- so doubtful you bought at the peak-
    unless you believe TSLA is going down significantly- my advice is to hold for ER before rolling; when rolling around the ER period be very careful of the IV values- If the TSLA underlying has priced in the ER, it's often advantageous to time delay the roll. Sell into, then hold for IV to come in for the buy or at least do it in phases. IV is an important factor when buying or rolling around ER spikes of IV
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    kenliles, be careful about extrapolating IV for short-term calls to longer-term calls/LEAPS. When the IV was 138 pre-ER (it was actually 1.69 for the weekly calls), that was for that week's calls. The IV was definitely higher then now for longer-term calls/LEAPS, but past about 1 month out, the IV doesn't change very much pre- vs. post-ER. I made a comparison back then in the "Newbie options trading" thread of IV pre- and post-ER of ATM calls at various expiration dates. Here it is: >Pre-ER (Q1): Time to expiry - IV 2 days (May 9) - 1.69 1 week (May 17) - 0.90 2 weeks (May 23) - 0.84 3 weeks (May 30) - 0.73 6 weeks (Jun21) - 0.61 4 months (Sept20) - 0.53 8 months (Jan2015) - 0.50 1 year,8 months (Jan2016) - 0.47 >Post-ER: Time to expiry - IV 0 days (May 9) - 1.66 1 week (May 17) - 0.48 2 weeks (May 23) - 0.50 3 weeks (May 30) - 0.47 6 weeks (Jun21) - 0.47 4 months (Sept20) - 0.53 8 months (Jan2015) - 0.48 1 year,8 months (Jan2016) - 0.46
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah- that's a good point the IVs don't correlate to short term calls at all. I was addressing ckessel (and others) J15 $300s. IV on those may well not return to 138 this ER; but even if IV for those goes to only to 75 pre ER, the value of those J15s 60 days from now is $23 (vs current $10 today). You have to close at the spike though, which only lasts 1-4 days at most.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks ken! I've got a bunch of these and was wondering what to do with them. I think mine are up to $11.5 or so, but it'll take $23 to make me whole. Was disappointed to see such little movement, but I remember reading about the depressed IV in someone's post (Maybe yours?) about a week ago and knew not to expect much.

    So I guess I'm wondering if it potentially makes sense to close them using the spiked IV (Assuming it does happen around ER) rather than wait for the ER itself, which historically deflates anything OTM, especially $300.

    One more question - is IV homogeneous across strike range for a given expiry date, or is their some sort of distribution dependant on the moneyness?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, again, maybe I am wrong, but my point is that long-term calls/LEAPS do not spike at all leading up to ERs. In my example from TSLA Q1, IV for anything beyond 1 month out did not change between pre-ER and post-ER (they were all between 0.47-0.53). I just don't see where you are getting the idea that J15 300s would go to an IV of 75? I would expect them to stay right where (0.4-0.6 depending on stock volatility) they are leading up to and after ER without any sort of spike/crush. Please correct me if I am wrong but my (poorly formatted - won't let me edit it) TSLA pre- and post-ER in my last post shows that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks - I guess I am mistaken. However, I did write the IV values (taken from the NASDAQ option chain web page) for the ATM calls for the various expiration dates 2 days prior to ER and then 1 day after. For the Jan2015 ATM calls, the pre-ER IV was 0.50 and the post-ER IV was 0.48. I just don't see how that data matches with the chart you posted where it shows a big spike up and down. Strange. Do you have those historical IV graphs with y-axis values for IV?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I can't edit my posts for some reason. I do see the IV scale now (going up to 130). I wonder if maybe your scale represents overall stock IV (and maybe only relevant to week-month out calls) and not reflective of anything beyond 1 month expiration. Because if it did reflect the Jan15 300 calls like you say, then the value of the Jan15 300 calls (compared to the stock price) should have gone way up as the IV spiked and then way down as the IV crashed, but it did not. It stays relatively consistent compared to stock price around the ER. That is the only explanation I can come up with that correlates with my known data showing the IV to be almost the same for Jan15 calls pre and post-ER.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So all things being equal, the next best time to roll is in the pre-Q2 ER IV spike. Well, roll out anyway. Then as kenliles mentioned, it might be best to delay buying the new LEAPS until after post-ER IV crash.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is a good explanation of Implied Volatility, its drivers and calcs.
    OF-volatility5.gif

    Output is fair value or price of an option.

    This model is then solved for volatility, backward calc is used to estimate IV using iteration
    OF-volatility6.gif


    "Rising IV will generally lift all boats, but IV skews may become more pronounced if they are regular features of a particular market. Skews, also known as IV "smiles" or "smirks" are cause by the warping of prices by the marketplace away from theoretical prices. Therefore, IV levels can vary for each strike along a strike price chain, or across different expiration dates."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    the y-axis (right side, inside scale) does show the scale values - lowest(27.72) mid(81.35) high(134.98) - linear scale; note the spikes only occur for a few days - also note- this is the IV on Calls; not sure what the .50 values are on nasdaq- they may may a composite of calls and puts IV or some a wider normalization in time of the IV percentage- not sure on that measure
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not exactly sure on what is going on the graph. However, for European options on a non-dividend stock, shouldn't the Implied Vol. be the same for both Calls & Puts on the same strike & expiration? -- That's the Put-Call Parity principle.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, I saw the scale (update to my post). I think NASDAQ lists IV as a fraction of 1.00 (ie. 0.48 would = 48 in your scale). I still stand by the fact that I don't think your chart can be accurate in that if the IV FOR THAT PARTICULAR OPTION (Jan15 300) spiked the way it shows up to 138 (1.38), then the option price should have spiked too which it didn't. And then it should have spiked back down when the IV went back down, which it didn't. I just wonder if that historical IV plotted there is for the short-term stock movements rather than that particular call option. Obviously, different expiration date calls will have different IV levels depending on how far they are from expiration. Here is what the NASDAQ page shows for that Jan15 300 call right now (Impvol being IV): Delta0.24 Gamma0.00 Rho0.26 Theta-0.06 Vega0.52 Impvol0.43 Sorry to keep going on about this but I think it's important for everyone to see what actually happens to the value change of longer-term calls/LEAPS due to IV changes around ER. I'm not trying to call you out, but please explain why the call value did not go up and down along with the IV on your chart if that was truly the IV for that call option.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Gaaah, my posts lose all their formatting and I can't edit them!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Gaaah, my posts lose all their formatting and I can't edit them!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Ken. That extra green dot looks good on you:biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you for that explanation. I think it ends up being the same thing as what I said - that the IV spike pre-ER has a much much lower effect on the value of the LEAP than the weekly (almost negligible). If the stock itself is volatile leading up to ER, then the IV will go up of course. I still say that I don't see any response in the chart above in the LEAP value when the IV spikes up and down. It looks like it is simply following the stock price.

    The other issue we haven't resolved yet is that the NASDAQ listed IV for the Jan15 call was 0.50 2 days pre-ER (while the IV for the weekly call was 1.69) and then the Jan15 LEAP IV was 0.48 1 day post-ER. It doesn't correlate with your chart showing an obvious change in IV up and down for the Jan15 LEAP. I still think that the chart you are showing is for maybe a stock price IV overall or the IV values NASDAQ showed is some adjusted IV based on expiration.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think when speaking of "the" IV, usually the IV of at-the-money options is referred to.

    However, speaking of the specific IV of a specific option, for example that of a LEAP: IF everything else stays constant (days to expiration and stock price not changing very much), then the IV and the option price can only change together. According to the option pricing formula being used.

    So I think what you are effectively saying is that the IV of Leaps doesn't spike as much as the IV of short-term options (around an ER).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    certainly a possibility- pz- as I don't have a good explanation for that difference currently- I'm working on it though; checking with my brokerage on the data to make sure it's behaving corruptly- I'll report back whatever I find out; maybe my charting is doing something I'm not aware of.

    I have the brokerage doing a check on it- I deleted the posts of the chart until I get confirmation from the brokerage on correct plotting by the tool- I don't want anybody using it if not correct or if it's not interpreted the way it suggests. The actual values for IV on the J15 $300s though is in fact currently low historically and the advice on best roll op still stands for a higher IV if possible around ER.
    processing... :)



    edit 2:
    ok just heard back- it is an average of IV not specifically for that expiration. The values I gave for theoretical value of the option for higher IVs were dead on- but the plot itself is a mashup average of options- hence the more difficult direct correlation. So I'll leave those charts down- so it's not confusing the issue. The advice would still stand of course- you can do the theoreticals if you like - an IV move up will give a better sell point. I was able to capture some of that last ER when I did a partial time-lag role per my usual method.

    So just to clarify- regarding this discussion: The IV did spike at ERs, that spike was greatest for the shorter expiry options (the point pz was making) than the LEAPS. The effect of the rise in IV at ER can creat an important 2nd derivative effect even for LEAPS to increase it's value and time to perform the delayed-roll out and up per previous discussion. It was the magnitudes of the chart relative to the option that was confusing as it represented an average of IV change across multiple expiry options that cause the confusion- hopefully now corrected; For that reason, I'll leave the charts down. How's that?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great! I will roll my leaps before er
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you for checking kenliles. That is what I thought from the start - that IV changes for expirations beyond 1 month near ER are negligible (proven by my TSLA pre and post-ER ATM call IV levels). I agree that there will be some IV increase leading up to ER since typically the stock will be more volatile, but the IV spike/crush effect on option values are only relevant for weeklies and less so out to 1 month.

    This is important for people thinking they could sell LEAPS before ER and then buy them back cheaper after based on IV drop (taking out stock movement of course). In other words, don't do that!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep good time IMO, sometimes I'll do it hue very next morning if I think the underlying will rise fast (lack of pre run up), the IV effect will still be present the next day. Either way, this upcoming ER I highly recommend forward roll out of those J15s for all LEAP-rollers.


    Also, pz1975 - thanks for your persistence to resolve. Was with you all the way on the disconnect and was I had no interests in just letting it go. Never think for a second there's any reason not to get these important issues clarified. It's critical all communication are contextual and verifiable if any of us plan to use them for our own decisions. Good job and thank you

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yep. Would be the run up and rundown in IV rather than the spike itself. And the underlying stock price pre-post ER should guide the decision. Agreed
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okay, I've been trying to follow this and got lost somewhere. If the IV doesn't move much for LEAPS, then I thought there wouldn't be value in rolling pre-ER? And if IV does move enough to matter, you'd want to do a delayed roll?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    PZ and Ken: Excellent discussion. I will have to read the whole thing 2-3x before fully understanding! :wink: Thanks
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. It is important to get these issues ironed out so we all have the correct info on how to interpret options, especially around ER. The major learning point for me is not to worry about sudden IV changes pre/post-ER for any option 1 month or more out in expiration. It's really only the ones 0-3 weeks (and most to the weekly) out that get crushed the most in IV value loss post-ER.

    It kind of goes along my thinking that instead of buying calls that expire the ER week to "play the ER", it is better to buy them at least 1 month out since there won't be any significant loss of IV value the next day and you can gain in price jumps that happen a bit delayed from the actual ER (ie. Q4 when the big jump to 265 happened the next week and my weekly (week of ER) calls only had minimal profits due to a smaller ump that week and IV value loss).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OK. Your confusion is more than valid. It's partially because we've been intermixing a couple of issues plus a number of my post I deleted with the plots (couldn't figure out how to drop just the plots). So I'll take some time here to summarize and separate the issues, so at least you can evaluate the advice and opinions correctly. I think you might actually have it clear, but I want to be sure we're all communicating here.

    First (for the benefit of those not familiar with the history of some of this), we're assuming this discussion is based around holding a bull position in TSLA, using LEAPS as a rolling position to substitute for a stock position. Therefore the decisions are based on a continually bull position, but to minimize the time degradation. This is done to hold a 'stock risk' equivalent position with less capital allocation. With that context, the discussion at hand is when to roll out existing J15s to J16s for maximum benefit.

    Based on my experience in implementing this methodology, the time vs risk guidance is to roll about 6 months from expiration, but within 4 months minimum. Generally the best time to roll is at the peaks (due to Delta tracking, covered earlier). I rolled mine out earlier this year due to the large run up to $260 and experiencing a major pullback (rolled most out back at $240 or so). With the recent partial recovery, those that held J15 lower leg now evaluating the best roll forward timing. I think that's largely the quick version of the context.

    The current question at hand is to roll now or wait for ER. I presented a case with some charts to show that currently, even though we've had a local potential peak rise, the IV is very low for all options, including our J15 LEAPS ($300 strike specifically, but really all strikes). An increase in IV can induce higher values for our options, so needs to be considered. As pz1975 noted, changes in IV are much higher for shorter term options and so have less effect on the decision to gain maximum benefit.

    So with all that for context, let's summarize where we are and what the opined advice actual is so we're all clear. IV will definitely have effects on the J15 LEAP. You can use the theo values to check this, but if current IV of 43 rises to say 65 the option value will double (even when taking 60 more days of time value off and maintaining the current underlying $230).

    But it's also true the further out you are from expiration, the less IV will actually change for your option. For a 2 year LEAP, there virtually no change even if the IV values for weeklies are spiking. By the time we reach the next ER (say late July, early Aug), you'll be down to 5 or so months to expiration and the IV effects that were essentially none existent a year ago, still won't approach the weeklies, but will change more than in the past, having more effect than what you may have experienced on those same LEAP positions.

    Based on my experience, if you wait for yet another ER early Nov, you'll be even more highly influenced by IV plus enter time value losses inconsistent with the lower risk stock replacement scenario in our context. Fine for that risk, but not within the lower risk of our premise. That leaves this coming ER as the last remaining ER influenced roll, hence a decision to roll now (or soon) or wait for that ER.

    I've already rolled, so this advice for those with remaining J15s to roll from this corner is as follows. This coming ER time is actually my normal role time. It's well within the time frame and actually affords some time after. The IV effect will be much less than a weekly, but more than in the past and we know IV tends to move for TSLA at ER and coming into it.

    Hence my original posted advice:
    unless you think TSLA will pull back significantly take advantage of the current likelihood of some increasing IV building into the ER. The spike will be less than shorter term options, but more than previous ERs for your J15s and will have some additional effect (I saw this even on the last ER after it added to the option depression caused by TSLA drop). As it turns out I should have likely waited to roll, like those in he mist of this decision, but I saw a protracted rotation out of growth stocks and calculated they may not return by the time of this Aug ER. Looks like that was an even call and those that stuck it through are in possible relative advantage position (although you may not feel like it) to advantage the current ER with some additional leverage.

    That said, the current run up is not at all a bad time to roll forward. Either decision is a decent one and you shouldn't look backward.
    In summary, the IV will have more potential change (and spiking) both up going into ER and down after than earlier due to the now shorter time remaining on your J15s. But they will not approach the weeklies (to the point pk1975 was making regarding the plots I presented and deleted). Current IVs are very low offering a possible kicker for that effect. However underlying TSLA will still have the most effect, so use that as primary decision, IV as secondary, but more a factor than in the past, while still much less than very short term options (hence an important part of the 4-6 months roll outs to mimic stock level risks).

    I hope this is helpful to your decisions. Best to all of us!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Roll now or pre er

    General rule of thumb for options: Sell on high IV, buy on low IV.

    Here is my simplified reasoning for waiting for higher IV to roll my j15 leaps to j16 leaps.

    1. Very low IV now for TSLA options, even VIX is at the lowest value since 2007
    2. TSLA options IV will be higher pre er than now
    3. Leaps that expire further in time have lower IV than the leaps that expire sooner
    4. At any point in time, it is reasonable to assume that j16 IV will be lower than j15 IV. There is IV differential between the two due to different expiration year.
    6. That differential is low now as IV is low. Once IV rises, it will rise more for j15 than j16, thus increasing differential in IV and thus option price for j15 will go up more than the option price for j16.
    7. My roll then means sell j15 on high IV and buy j16 on still steady (low) IV as that option is too far in time.

    Now I just have to weigh the effect of higher IV vs time decay on option price, as they act in opposing direction on price. If I wait too long, time decay effect on option price may offset any gains due to higher IV. My bet is that the next er is likely to give me higher IV without too much time decay on j15 leaps.

    Any holes, please point them out, my account will be appreciative:biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    that's the picture from the IV perspective. Then as always, the underlying TSLA will have the greatest effect of course. So consider TSLA primary with IV secondarily weighted (tie breaker if you will; You can also watch the IV between now then, knowing a spike is less effectual than a steady climb). If you feel TSLA will rise going into ER (along with some IV), then hold for that. And depending on how far it rises, consider whether to sell before or after based on what you think TSLA will do primarily (as usual), with secondarily IV effects. Ditto for the decision, to do an time delay buy after selling. Often if it runs up too much, I'll phase the buy side (since I'm already long with the existing leg for bull case insurance), and as TSLA pulls back advantage that pull back for the buy side of the roll. So that method still applies on it's own merit with regard to TSLA underlying. The IV pullback effect on the longer J16 buy will be especially minimal and of little consideration relative to the underlying consideration (weight that IV effect as very small on that side of the roll)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Super helpful! I know that must have taken a long while to write/edit and I really appreciate it.

    If I could give you a bunch more rep bumps, I would :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    And this is why I don't use greeks to make options trading decisions. It will make your head spin in a hurry.

    I know what to do with options, when to buy them, when to sell, when to roll. But all of this technical stuff I just try to stay away from. You can develop a feel for options by trading and observing them a lot better than by calculating IV, theta, etc. in spreadsheets.

    Just my honest opinion. It works for me at least.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Ken, that's very helpful. I'm sitting on J15's 300/320's. I'm optimistic that with impending Gigafactory news and a potential rise in IV those holding on to J15 will make out ok on the roll.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree about most of the greeks but I pay attention to IV as it is has such a big effect on the option price. When TSLA was range bound 200-210 recently the IV dipped so low that the options were much cheaper than when it first spiked up to and over 200. I expect IV to start go up again now with the recent spike.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like to know both ends of it as then I get a better feel for the mechanisms driving things. I don't even have to fully understand how the greeks are derived, but understanding the concepts behind the drivers helps solidify the relationships in my head.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The only thing I would add to kenliles and Auzie's lists above (thanks guys - nice summaries) is that there is an assumption that IV will be lower for Jan16 LEAPS than Jan15 calls. This is not true. IV for Jan16, Jan15 and even September calls (I used ATM for comparison) are 0.43, 0.44 and 0.45 respectively. When I made the same comparison around the ER, they were all the same then as well. Calls with expirations beyond 1-2 months will track their IVs together up and down and so there is no value gain from a lower IV from rolling LEAPS out. It's really only options inside 1 month (and lesser at 6-8 weeks) that the IV separates from the rest of the expiry dates.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's all Greek to me :eek:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This also falls under my "feel" category. I can tell whether IV is high or low by looking at the what the options are trading at.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True- but the difference will grow as you get closer to expiry (and even more than 1 month out)- the difference is also greater for OTM than ATM
    Let's use current values to get a possible handle on the swing:
    current IV values for the $300 strike are:
    J16 41.6%
    J15 41.9%
    S14 45.1%

    If we use the current S14/J16 difference as representative guide of the possible J15/J16 difference 2 months from now at ER (remember the difference is likely to be a bit more by then unless TSLA gets much closer to ATM),
    and we evaluate theoretical for what that current 3.5% difference in IV does to the J15 at that time:
    The current S14 $3.49 price at it's current 45.1% IV would be $2.61 for the current J16 41.6% IV-
    that's a 25% difference in price for the same option, using a 3.5% IV difference rather than assuming an equal IV between them. (It's the same 25% effect taking the IV up by 3.5 points as well)

    pz- the ATM differences are smaller than OTM, but even that 2% difference in your current numbers today for ATM correlate to 15% difference in Option price returns. and as IV rises across the board, the differences become greater. It's true that TSLA underlying will overshadow those differences, but those aren't just throw away amounts- they are more than half the time value losses for 2 months time (about 30% for the J15 $300)
    It's very analogue in nature, so you have to picture it as a wave structure in more than one dimension (hence sleepy's understandable dizziness :) )

    Anyway- those are the numbers for consideration- you'll have about 30% loss in time value over the next 60 days; The IV differences are unknown, but with today's IV as a guide that could wash with the time loss. So comes down to what you think TSLA will do going into ER- grow or fade from here
    --IV can be friend or foe--
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this boils down to the following question (using the Jan15 300 call as we have been all along): As expiration nears, is the call value increase from the IV gain greater than or less than the call value loss from time decay?

    Here are my calculations (using the IB options calculator; note that these values are different than real values because I simplified the calculation leaving out the interest rate and dividend yield variables from the equation):

    Today (7 months from expiration): using IV=42 and days to expiration of 220, calculated value = $9.29.

    Mid-August (around ER time, 5 months from expiration): using IV=45 (3 point increase as per your post) and days to expiration of 160, calculated value = $7.37.

    Thus, the effect of time decay is significantly greater than the IV increase and the total value of the call drops by 21% (again leaving all other variables alone - stock price and "baseline" IV). In fact, the IV would have to be at 49.25 for the value of the call to stay steady at $9.29. The IV 'may' go up of course but that is an unknown. In essence, all things being equal, unless you feel the stock price and/or the IV will go up between now and August, it is better to roll the Jan15 calls forward now-ish (in the next month or so) to avoid loss from time decay.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    great discussion-
    and If (using your numbers) we take one more step to help make that roll time decision for folks:
    TSLA above $236 would exceed that net time/IV loss;
    If IV moves to a 5% difference instead of 3%, TSLA above $232 would exceed it.
    or put another way- be required to exceed it.
    (I just ran these now to give you the reference points - TSLA currently $227)
    now that ought to give everyone a good frame to make a decision; r
    elative to where you think TSLA might trade at ER, and the effect of both the time loss against possible secondary gains from IV;
    If you think TSLA falls or stays flat from here- roll now;
    If you think TSLA will trade north of say $235- ER time might be a better roll;
    One more consideration if you are interested in the time delay roll- the ER can work for you assuming you think ER will produce a growth in TSLA, followed by a pullback; If you think ER will not do that and carries a risk of inducing pullback- roll now;
    Disclosure: I made the decision months back to roll very early anticipating a longer recovery than we're seeing currently, so I now hold only a token J15 that I intend to just sell for cash; also keep in mind, the J17s will come up Nov-Dec time; you'll want some cash around to put that forward leg on. Likely the strikes will be lower than you want released- the Market Makers tend to keep those closer in for a few months

    thanks again pz- excellent discussion; I hope that gets everybody to a comfortable decision matrix
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks a bunch ken and pz. This is directly applicable to me (Also have $320's) and I was thinking about how I was going to get into the J17's when they come out. Tough part is guessing what TSLA will do between now and August. The last few days make it awfully hard to predict.

    In terms of rolling, I guess that picking the new set of strikes is mostly a matter of preference based on where we think it will go in 2015? I actually have a lower strike (255) on my J16's as I just liked being a little less OTM, albeit with few contracts. I'll have to see what J16's run for and maybe just roll the 15's to that (shedding some contracts in the process) as it works for my particular comfort level.

    J16 300's seem to be going for around $25.50 at the moment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To continue on with the discussion, an important part we have omitted thus far is the change in price of the Jan16 LEAP we are rolling forward to. I have used the Jan16 300 call for ease of calculations.

    The price of that option today (using my simplified IB calculation) is $24.86 (stock price 227, IV=42, 550 days to expiration).

    The price of that option in mid-August if everything (IV, stock price) stays the same (except days to expiration for which I used 485) is $22.11. Interestingly, this difference (gets cheaper) is $2.75 ($24.86-$22.11), which is more than the difference in the value lost for the Jan15 300 call between now and August ($9.29-$7.37=$1.92).

    This goes back to favouring your argument that it is okay to wait until August to roll forward if everything stays the same!! In other words, the overall loss of Jan15 value from now to mid-August is LESS THAN the loss of value of the Jan16 300 call that we would theoretically roll forward to. Thus, one would gain $0.83 ($2.75-$1.92) by waiting until August to roll forward.

    All of this takes the main driver of the call value - stock price - out of the equation, so if one thinks the stock will go up or down between now and August then act accordingly. What it does do, however, is provide a window where the option to roll forward is actually safe without much overall gain or loss (ie. in my example the gain would be about 3% ($0.83/$24.86) by waiting to roll forward, which is not enough to change one's strategy of when to roll forward). Thus, it is best to pick a time between now and August that one or both of the stock price and IV are higher than now to roll forward.

    But...we are assuming that rolling forward at a higher stock price is best. I will do some calculations to prove that (because I think it is likely true) and post again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yep- agreed; we were taking very worse case scenario that the J16 did not change in value- which of course it does. In your analysis for best time to roll out and or up- consider that you believe the stock will actually pull back from a high and increase from a low. The Delta from the 2 positions on that belief is a main driver for that analysis as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, rolling forward is definitely better when the underlying stock price is high.

    Calculations (again using a roll from Jan15 300 to Jan16 300; keeping IV constant at 42):

    If stock price is 200 today, the value of a Jan15 300 is $4.10 and Jan16 300 is $16.04. Thus, one could roll forward 1 Jan15 300 into 26% of a Jan16 300 call.

    If stock price is 250 today, the value of a Jan15 300 is $16.20 and Jan16 300 is $35.42. Thus, one could roll forward 1 Jan15 300 into 46% of a Jan16 300 call.

    If stock price is 300 today, the value of a Jan15 300 is $38.53 and Jan16 300 is $60.52. Thus one could roll forward 1 Jan15 300 into 64% of a Jan16 300 call.

    This makes me realize that when buying LEAPS it is probably better to not go too far OTM. Even though the potential gain is somewhat limited (although still way better than common stock), the net capital would be preserved much more if the stock ends up down or neutral over the year.

    These calculations have helped me a lot. I think I will roll forward to slightly lower strike prices going forward than what I have been doing, probably mostly 10-20% OTM with maybe only a small amount to higher OTM strikes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just wanted to say that I find this discussion very useful, given that I am also holding Jan15 LEAPS at various strikes.

    So, thanks guys.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yes- exactly and that's not including the anticipated movement difference if realized; regarding your OTM strike preference- it's true for a slower growth you'r net capital preserved goes up (some people I know actually prefer ITM or DITM for that reason); but keep in mind the ROI is also higher for a correctly established OTM strike (less capital for same or more gain). That's the reason I established (after years of hard lessons) and 2 strike program for each leg; One closer in that tracks the underlying better and produces less risk and the upper leg that captures high ROI gains if the stock really moves fast compared to expectations. Sometime I'll even do a 3 strike position, but normally 2 for each leg works well. This will change over time of course- TSLA in the 'early days' could move 100% in a matter of days - now that's not in the cards- so adjust the strikes accordingly to be less OTM over the life of the growth. For example, I'm currently finishing a decade long play in Apple with the same program- this will be the last year as I'll close out my final leg (J15 $100s notice close to the money on those) later this year and simply move to a strong stock position- anticipating growth to be steady and sure but not for the LEAPS-stock program. By the way the returns on that over those years far far exceeds a stock buy and hold, even including some massive downturns; I expect the same for TSLA;

    I have a ton of stuff to catch up on, so I'll close for now with this for TSLA- those that stayed with it through this fairly extreme downturn will be glad of it. And for those ready to roll; now is a decent time, but if I still held the option currently, I'd be targeting the upcoming ER run-up as perhaps a better roll or at least phased to include some of the J15 position for roll at that time- splitting the roll is also a good option; Either way, though do not wait beyond the results of the ER- at a gain or a loss, roll at that time or before latest - is my advice; for what it's worth
    best to all...!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just for completeness, it's less as a absolute number, but much more as a percentage. I suspect most people are like myself and would be rolling forward a dollar amount rather than a share quantity.

    More concretely, I'll be rolling my 100 Jan15 $300 strike contracts into however many Jan16 $300 strike contracts I can get for the same total $ amount. If I wait until August to roll, my 100 Jan15 contracts will lose ~20% of their value vs losing only 11% if I rolled into J16s right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes - good point and very important. Thanks for seeing that! I forgot to include that in my calculations for that part.

    So that shows that rolling a Jan15 now would buy you a greater % of a Jan16 LEAP than waiting until August...so again, it tips the scales towards rolling now(ish) being a better idea than waiting. But again, all of these are small amounts compared to if the stock price and/or IV moves in the meantime, with stock price having the most effect by far of course.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hold different strikes of J15 in blocks of 10, so I plan to roll the blocks.

    Regarding different strikes, one is DITM, the rest are OTM.

    I was considering rolling DITM now and the rest later, or perhaps splitting the roll as Ken suggested.

    Any opinions or insights on DITM vs OTM leap rolls are appreciated.


    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IV is likely to go up before er and to drop after er.

    IV measures options mis pricing in the market. IV is a measure that captures projected volatility, a value that depends on how expensive options are in the marketplace.

    Theoretical option price is calculated using historical volatility (BS model). Market option price is set by market forces. This difference between the two prices (theoretical and market option price) is used to calculate IV. Thus IV tells us if options are over sold or over bought.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    quick comment on this point-
    that's true; but I think you're just projecting that you believe TSLA is currently at it's proximate high- If that's true, then yes, roll now.
    Consider, when you roll out in equal dollars your leverage position is reduced (to a more defensive position) significantly. Currently for example (at $300 strike), J15 you'll track TSLA at 2.7shares/$100 invested - J16 only 1.5shares/$100 invested- almost half the gains or losses for corresponding moves in TSLA. That's good if TSLA moves down, bad if TSLA moves up. You're thought is implying a belief TSLA is not moving higher into ER or certainly not worth the risk even if time value and IV are a wash. This is why holding both legs (split between J15 and J16) produces a blend of tracking- one more defensive, the other to capture gains. If you're currently holding all J15s, consider a roll of half now and half at ER. But if the thought really is that TSLA has peaked here, then rolling it all now is a good move. That's the move I made earlier on the crash around $230-$240 calculating a major retreat that wouldn't recover in time for a better roll. Looks like I was wrong by a few weeks, so I've been at a lower tracking per $ invested. Been nice going down, not so nice going up! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Completely agree with you. My calculations were all done removing all other variables. They were done purely to analyze when to roll forward based on time decay and relative IV changes alone. Turns out there isn't much difference overall with a smallish advantage to doing it sooner.

    If one thinks that TSLA will go up (or global IV will go up with stock price the same) then wait and roll at a higher stock price. If one thinks it will be flat or go down, then do it now.

    The other option is the delayed version like you said where one could sell the Jan15's now and buy the Jan16's later. If stock price is flat or down then one would come out ahead rolling like that. If stock price goes up, then one would end up behind.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Uh, no. I was just noting that pz1975's calculations about absolute losses in option value made the most sense only if talking about equal quantities of options. While I suspect most folks are probably dealing with a set amount of dollars where that's going to give a different quantity of J15 vs J16 options.

    I wasn't stating any belief about where the stock is headed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    gotcha- my mistake
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know if I missed this in another thread, but does anyone know when the Tesla Factory gets its new lines installed? I remember something about a temporary shutdown so that new equipment could be set up.

    Anyone spy on the Fremont facility? I am curious to hear if anyone has seen unusual delivery of new stuff (maybe robots and other machines) for Model X production.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    During the Q1 ER Elon said that Fremont factroy will be shut down for first 10 days in July for final tooling of the new production line (it was not clear whether it is calendar or business days - my conjecture that he was talking about calendar days). It is my understanding that Model S production will be transferred to the new line, while modifications are done to the original final assembly line, to bring it up to the same capacity as the new line.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also realize that this may not negatively affect production that much compared to last July even with the plant 'closed'. This will correspond with the week they take off each quarter to do maintenance/give the staff a break.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also closed to tours from july until August
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, that is good information thank you! I did not know that they pre-planned a weekly shutdown each quarter already. Then the only risk here is that they said it would take 10 days to get this online, so there is likely to be a bit of an impact, but not nearly as big as I originally thought it would be :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's with this brick wall at $235?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $235.73 is a resistance level from April 2.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think that there is enough good news out there to push TSLA through $235. This is starting to look like a local top if it doesn't break through $235 in the next couple of days.

    On a side note: I shorted SCTY today :scared:, but it was only a short term trade. I bought some weekly $65 puts for 0.40 and then doubled down at 0.26 on a spike. I closed them all out for avg. of 0.445 for a nice 35% gain. But I wish I had held on since it looks like SCTY might be pulling back now. Oh well, gain is gain.

    I don't think that SCTY is investible right now. It is very tradeable, but I would be very weary about entering long or short positions at this point in time if you are looking at a longer term investment horizon. Just wait till the dust settles, because it is most likely going down in the short run.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have no issue with this but admire your courage in posting it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, we pushed up to the $228-235 level on some positive catalysts. Since then, based on DaveT's post on the resistance and a couple blow backs at $235ish, my personal opinion is that we will settle in this area
    until we get another catalyst (positive or negative) or Q2ER, whichever comes first. I am hoping for the positive catalyst before ER but I am thinking we will be consolidating. So, I am holding my Sept 220s and my Jan15 LEAPS.

    I again wanted to thank Ken and PZ for the excellent IV discussion over the last two days. :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold some calls first thing this am then when we broke through 235 for a bit I panicked and bought them back. I really have a hard time emotionally shorting tesla even if it's just a small position.
    �
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