Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 31

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was a scalp, <60min hold time. I think lower low is coming within weeks
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure how much money someone can make from 13 shares in less than an hour, especially on a flat day. When the short trolls come out that has historically been a pretty good time to buy. Wish I would have gotten more when we were being warned about falling knives in the 180s.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I can't afford more shares. Folks on this forum are trying to go from $5k to $1m... Gotta start from somewhere.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, you wanted to make money? Here's what you do: stop shorting, hold your shares long, and check back in a year. Can't imagine how anyone could make a profit paying the transaction fees on a 13 share scalp when the stock is only moving 0.5%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i'm not against going long. I said on this forum that we will test $170s when tsla was in $240s-250s, i also said retest $200 when tsla was down in $180s, and I said $200s will be resistance going forward....

    don't focus on my share count (i may have leftout a few 0s)... it's a public forum, i see no need to brag about share count.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I recall your prediction in November when the stock was $150. Everyone else was standing like a deer in headlights after the fall from $194, but you said it would fall to $120... you were pretty much bang on. I bought about half of what I've got at $117.50. So you have some props :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    U recalled wrong. I said, at the time, $200 retest 1st, then resistance & downward going forward,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    To be fair, depending on the brokerage account and packaging he could be paying as low as $0.01 per share commission, so you can make a profit on some pretty small moves at that level, of course on 13 shares a small move is probably not worth your time, but some people think differently...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "I suspect we are gonna revisit the Goldman downgrade price around 120s" is what you said on November 5th, unless I am reading the forum page wrong.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, next time the short trolls come out, that will be my buy signal. Let's see, if you had held on to your 13,000 shares (that is a few zeroes, right?), multiplied by $5, that's $65,000 you missed out on by selling yesterday instead of holding.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Who do you think you are... Antonio Gracias? :cool:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okay guys, lets keep TSLA at $209.50, so that my short covered calls can expire worthless today :)

    Then the rally can resume on Monday, so that I can sell new covered calls :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Please, everyone, listen to this man.

    I assume you sold 210s expiring today? I went big and sold 210s for next week. Fat and juicy. I'm betting I'll have a chance to buy them back today and keep some of that juice for myself.

    I feel dirty for shorting, but as I said before, I'm a selfish bastard.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't consider that shorting. Selling covered calls is a brilliant strategy that tends to perform just as well as holding naked stock in up markets, but significantly outperforms in flat or down markets. It is a winning strategy, as long as you don't get caught selling calls right before a 20%-50% move. But even then, that loss will be more than offset over time with gains from selling covered calls.

    edit: yes, I sold the $210's expiring today for a little over $1/piece yesterday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's not shorting, of course, in the sense that it doesn't involve selling anything that doesn't already exist. It's just the idea that, as soon as I sell the calls, I am putting dirty thoughts in my mind. I sold ATM calls, so whenever it goes higher, I am mumbling "you make me sick" at the TSLA ticker.

    I shudder.

    Anyway, usually I sell them $10-$15 out, but today I thought it wouldn't jump much from here. In the absence of any news we're floating with NASDAQ, and I'm expecting lower levels today, at least for a time, after the initial gap up due to the job report.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You don't have to be shorting stock to sell calls. Example: needed to replace cash in Ira to reflect a withdrawal and like to keep 30% cash in Ira. Didn't want to sell at 178 so I sold calls for 190. Knew they would be called away but got 5 dollar price so instead of sell those at 178, got 195. Yes it is less than I would have gotten if sold today instead but my decision at the time was to sell at 178 or sell the calls
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not shorting stock, I am long stock and selling covered calls. The terms of my account don't allow me to sell naked calls (not that I would, anyway.)

    Good call(s) on your trade!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, you really go tight with them. But who am I to judge, I learned about this technique from one of your posts, checked into it, and using it for the past three months. I tend to go much safer: sold 215 yesterday with expiration today. The premium is smaller, but I sell a lot of them... :smile:

    This week is my eleventh of doing this. Works like a charm, pays much more than my day job!

    Thank you, Sleepy!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So you must be holding a fair bit of shares or long dated calls to cover the short call position?

    I have been selling call spreads in TSLA for a while, essentially the same thing that you all are doing now. It's great when it works, but the time that it doesnt work and you dont close the short call, you are going to get hosed. I was targeting spreads for at least 10% upside to max downside risk and it worked for many trades and then you get the 1 or 2 that don't and its tough to stomach, especially when you are selling a lot of calls for low premium.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hold both shares and September calls. Before I started doing this I've dropped more than a year worth of historical TSLA data into a spreadsheet and did analysis of typical price movements on Fridays. This of course does not guarantee anything, but gives a good idea on how to choose the strike for the calls being sold.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's true, you don't want it to spike and not come back.

    As a data point, I started selling covered weeklies (once I sold calls expiring two weeks out) in mid April. I got called away only once. Compared to when I started, after adding it all up, my net gain expressed in total shares + total cash is about 5%. As far as I am concerned, that is a smashing success.

    I should add, though, that a large part of that gain can be explained by my first trade, when I sold calls before earnings. The premiums were very high due to insane volatility, and I got to keep most of it. If I take that out of the equation, my return on the strategy would be a bit over 1%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It all depends on how many calls and what your risk tolerance is. The $210 calls I sold yesterday for $1.03 will yield me more than 2% in one day against my J16 $210 LEAPS. It all depends on how you deploy this strategy. Of course if TSLA finishes above $210, then I start rolling them forward.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am going for a lower return per trade, while trying to win consistently. I am targeting a .5% gain per week on average. In theory, if I manage that for 50 weeks in a row, that's a 25% gain per year, uncompounded. So far, I'm ahead of that target.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I usually don't run them that tight. This week was different since we had shareholders meeting and I was waiting for a pop on Tuesday or Wednesday. It didn't happen, so I sold on Thursday. Normally I would sell a $215 or $220 that is 1-2 weeks out if TSLA is around $205. But when there is short notice, as in only one day, then I might get a lot more aggressive. But it depends on a lot of factors, such as recent stock movement, market sentiment, macro data, macro mood, etc.

    And yes, you can make more money this way than at work. It doesn't really take a lot of shares or LEAPS to start earning nice income either. The problem is sticking to the strategy after it backfires on you once or twice. I have become pretty good at playing the "rolling game" though and it certainly is not for everyone.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I thought you meant 5% total gain or 1% after taking out that one week. If you are averaging 1% per week then that is huge.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did the covered calls thing a few times before (1-2 months ago), but I am hesitant now because TSLA 'seems' to want to break out any day, like it is waiting for a major positive catalyst and will take off to 225 and beyond. I think 200 is a strong resistance point and have sold some naked 200 puts the last two weeks when it dipped to the 204/205 range. This is riskier because I don't have anything covering it but I just see the risk of a drop to 190 or lower as very low right now unless we get a negative catalyst of course or the market tanks. I wonder what will happen next week with the positive press coming out about the first UK/RHD cars being delivered. I kind of wish the stock was lower today to buy some ATM calls for next week, but will just wait and see.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When is the official RHD date?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, that's what I meant. It's been 5 weeks since my first trade (I was wrong when I said mid-April; the first trade was on April 28). I managed 5% overall, which is an average of 1% per week. That, in turn, is twice what I was targeting.

    If I took that first trade out, I'd be behind.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was thinking about selling several days or little over a week ahead of expiration, but for now decided against it as obviously more risky strategy, requiring good understanding of the potential of stock movements. Key is, as always, to do your own analysis and pick tactic which fits personal level of comfort the best.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    the casino always wins in the long run...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, in this case, aren't we the casino? Time is on the option seller's side.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can always sell a 1-2 week call option and then buy it back as soon as it loses x% of value; e.g. sell for $5 and buy back for $4 same day if you think that you can spot the daily peak. But I usually just sell and wait.

    It does take a a lot of work with research to deploy these strategies, so it is not for everyone.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly!

    That is why I like selling weeklies instead of buying. Of course I buy weeklies too, but that is just my gambling nature making decisions (a lot more exciting and fun). Selling weeklies is my brain making decisions.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's what I did today. I sold 210s at $5 and bought them back at $4.2. Then I sold 220 Jun13s at $1.1, and I'll sit on them for the next week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This might belong in the newb thread, but how do you roll forward? There's no "roll" feature I can see in my brokerage's tools, so what is the manual buy/sell equivalent?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How would you roll this trade forward? When I had short calls finish ITM I would simply buy them back just prior to close, taking the loss.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I use a combo aka spread aka diagonal spread or calendar spread (depending on strike prices), to roll my options forward. It all depends on what your brokerage calls it.

    You can always buy them back and sell new ones later if you think TSLA will go back up in the near future.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Most brokerages will list it as a Spread trade- having 2 legs. Make the first leg the Buy-To-Close and the second Sell-To-Open; you can perform the trade with a Net Debit Limit- would not recommend market - know what the net max difference is you want to pay and set the limit - The legs will execute together to limit the net debit. The 2nd leg can have both a time roll out or a strike or both from the first.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think the casino is the right analogy. By selling a call, you are buying insurance: trading risk for a known outcome. In an efficient market, this would in the long run reward the buyer of risk. I set up a spreadsheet using a year of weekly TSLA data. I ran alternatives trying to identify the best strategy for selling covered calls under various underlying conditions for TSLA by selectively sampling either all 52 weeks (average +1.7% per week), the 44 worst weeks (net neutral for TSLA) or worst 36 weeks (net -1.7% per week). What I found was that the best strategy for covered calls was not to do them. Buying weeklies about 2% OTM would provide modest net profit when TSLA was flat. If TSLA was in a long-term upward movement, it would be a better strategy to just buy longer-term options. This analysis may not agree with others, and it certainly wasn't very satisfying. I was looking for a way to take advantage of the decay in option prices to systematically make money, but I couldn't find a way to do it which would work long-term. Maybe if the IV were higher it would be another story, but selling covered calls now seems like asking to be left behind when the stock goes on its next run-up. I'm left with the pretty boring method of buying long-term calls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My casino analogy has to do with the fact that the odds favor you as a seller vs. a buyer of short term calls. The casino is also all about playing the odds over the long run. The casino may get burnt in the short run, but will win in the long run as long as it sticks to the same strategy (same blackjack rules).

    I don't agree that selling a call is like buying insurance. Buying a put is like buying insurance. Selling a call is not trading risk for a known outcome, because the stock can tank and you lose big. But this is just semantics, so not important...

    As far as your backtesting goes, you are making the mistake of backtesting :)

    If you assume that TSLA is going to double in the next 6-12 months then it is a bad strategy to sell short term calls. But the future is always different from the past. Another huge flaw in backtesting is that you use static sell points, such as once every week on Monday or something similar. I don't sell calls every week. I only do it some times. Sometimes I will do it twice a week, and sometimes I won't sell any for two months straight.

    It is a strategy that is not for everyone, and you really have to have a good grasp of the market and TSLA. You have to have a good strategy, with exit strategies in mind, and you have to stick to it. It is not as simple as selling a call and hoping it expires worthless. Timing is everything. Must have time to follow the stock movements daily too to get a better grasp of what is happening.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Selling a call can be regarded as selling insurance to a buyer who is looking to protect themselves against the possibility that the stock runs higher, leaving them behind.

    Any option seller is an insurance seller (hence the name "option premium"). You just have to think what is the buyer protecting against.

    I'm not directing this post at you, btw, it's just a general comment.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are saying that selling a call is like selling insurance.
    emupilot is saying that selling a call is like buying insurance.

    Now I am really confused :confused:

    I will just stick to my casino analogy :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No need to be confused. I'm right, and emupilot is wrong ;-).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wheew- that clears it up- thanks
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, in my original post I did provide an explanation, too. Care to point out the error?

    (If you're joking and I'm misreading your post, I apologize in advance.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    yeah- sorry; just messin' with ya; I liked your post's explanation. no problem...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great, now I feel like a fool :). Too much coffee makes me jumpy... Gotta lay off the stuff.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Will we close with under 3 million shares in volume? Volume hasn't been that low since before the Q1 2013 conference call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    no worries FR- stick with Java my good man! :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is happening across the board, and it's been going on for a while. Transaction volumes for May were the lowest since the financial crisis: 'Another Completely Dead Day' Is New Normal on Street

    It's eerie. It feels like the water retreating from the beach before the tsunami hits.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have noticed this too lately. Not only low volume during trading hours, but also pre-market trading is rather dead now a days.... just a month or two ago TSLA shares would be trading right at the open of pre-market (4 a.m.) but now trading doesn't happen until 6-7 a.m.

    Seriously, what's going on? This has to be some kind of warning sign of something, anyone care to share their thoughts?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this was my original point, that whether or not someone takes on risk doesn't necessarily reflect on who the ultimate winner is:

    Casino: gambler pays fixed price to increase risk for negative expected return (house wins in the long run)
    Insurance: client pays fixed price to decrease risk for negative expected return (insurance company wins)

    Gambling is, of course, statistically illogical. It may or may not be a good assumption to assume market efficiency with options or if people are just gambling.

    All that aside, however, I had initially used my spreadsheet to evaluate covered calls and found them to be a bad idea. I modified my spreadsheet to run sleepyhead's strategy, which I believe is a long call calendar spread: selling a short-term option and buying a long-term option at the same strike. This strategy (if you choose the right time horizons and strike) does pay off if TSLA is equally likely to go up or down and of course helps reduce your losses if TSLA is going down. If TSLA were to overall be going up more than a rate of about 44% per year, then one would be better off not selling the short-term calls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for Sleepy's inspiration. I also started writing covered calls awhile back. Been burned a few times. But I think overall still profitable. I normally write number of covered calls equivalent to my delta. So I know I'm safe. Wrote this week's $210 for $1.40 right after share holder meeting. Got nice 4% return of the calls I have. I think it's easier to make money writing covered calls during low volatility period like right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This strategy work fine, but you have to pick your moments carefully or you can get burned. Its happened to me a number of times when TSLA would make big jumps.Selling a covered call can keep you from getting bigger profits. Eg, selling a covered 210 for next week expiration will get you a couple of points.....and during one of the trading days NEWS BREAKS " PANASONIC CONFIRMS DEAL WITH TESLA, GF LOCATION ANNOUNCED " and stock jumps 5-10%, and you miss it.

    Not saying its not a good strategy , but there is that risk of missing the bigger pie.

    Good weekend to all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The most rational reason I can think up is that most parties that trade TSLA are waiting on Model X and Gigafactory news. Tesla made good on its promises to ship Model S and built out a cross-country Supercharger network, and the stores/service centers are operating as planned. That's keeping the stock at $200.

    The next level of frenzy (or drop) depends IMO on whether Tesla can prove it can keep up the pace. A signed agreement with Panasonic, Gigafactory groundbreaking, and Model X Beta are the proof that the market is probably looking for. These are big unknowns right now. If Tesla gets it right, I predict share price climbing to $300+.

    I remember that TSLA held in the $20-$30 range for quite awhile. Once it was clear that the Model S was the real deal and making money for Tesla, the stock rocketed up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Only if you have bear call spreads on then the burn is much worse. 9 trades of profit wiped out due to a news announcement. The real risk is timing the news cycle. Being an active member here reduces it somewhat though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, this makes sense. You just have to be correct at some point to eventually make the loss back.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is not really a loss. If you do the strategy correctly, then you still made a gain overall.

    Unless the stock completely runs away and never pulls back (in which case you just bite the bullet and close out the short call), sooner or later the short call expires worthless. And hopefully you moved it up in strike too as you roll out...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I tried this strategy once a while ago and it didn't go well that one time but I didn't stick with it. I started again last week and am happy with my results so far.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone found a link to a 'live feed' for the first UK delivery today? I could not find one using normal 'google searching'. Thanks
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is a lot of validity in posing a hypothesis and then testing it with all available data. Often all the available data is in the past. Example is a weather forecast. Weather forecast can be quite accurate for the short range.

    Weather forecast is helped with understanding of physics and fluid dynamics. Such equivalent is not available when trying to predict market movements.

    It may be more meaningful to test any hypothesis on the whole of market rather than on a single market participant. There is much more data available for the market and all the market forces are better modeled on a market rather than single market participants.

    If one wishes to test a hypothesis (trading strategy) on a market participant, the likelihood of improved results is increased to the extent that tested instrument resembles the market as a whole. Tesla in no way resembles the market. It is an outlier. There is very little data on TSLA. Any backtesting on TSLA is highly unlikely to provide valid predictions.

    Here is an interesting article on VXX and XIV backtesting. VXX is one of the first and most widely held exchange traded products (ETP). VIX is a measure of S&P500 volatility. VXX is VIX future. XIV is VXX reverse, their correlation is -99.6%. The author claims: A viable investment strategy may be to replace some or all of ones stock holdings with a long XIV or short VXX position. This should result in better risk adjusted returns at the portfolio level.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did you write some calls this morning at the spike? I wrote mine that expire this Friday on Friday before the weekend. I decided on $220s at $1.20. Already down to in value to $0.39! Looks like I could have been a lot more aggressive...I'm considering buying them back as that would lock in a large % of the profit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I always buy them back when they reach my target. Right after selling the calls, I place the order to buy them back at the targeted limit. I give up higher wins in exchange for higher-probability wins, on the theory that my expected winnings will be higher in the long run. It also lets me do multiple trades per week, instead of waiting for expiration (obviously, this works only when the stock is stagnating/trending downwards.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't often venture out of the investor forum but I found this nice rumor about the Model X seats
    Musk's hint to 2nd row seats in Model X
    (post #4)
    i think this will help add an additional 10k+ Model X reservations at least to the tally before X goes into production if it's true...the extra spike in reservations and press of the Model X innovation will help drive more TSLA stock interest I feel and help make the Shorts doubt their belief that Tesla is a one trick pony.
    i am super excited to see if this rumor on these seats get confirmed
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You need to get out of the investor's sections more!:biggrin: It is good news and I believe it. Probably is what Elon promised as a 'wow factor' when the falcon doors raise.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the link, quite informative.

    I am just wondering how much will sp jump once the full 'wow' is unleashed, and the timing of that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Feeling mean, feeling great

    Tilson closes TSLA short position

    Tilson shorted TSLA in late 2012. He is not short any more and the trade was one of his biggest losses ever in both long and short positions.

    Well deserved!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He was also short netflix from 100 to 250, then went long at 250. At 303, it fell back to 60 and he rode that down. To his credit, he doubled down I think and it's now 400 dollars. I don't think he's that great at speculative stock shorting.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shorting is a tough sport, so I stay away from it. The only time I would short a stock is if I am running a long/short zero beta portfolio, or in a bear market; although I have never tried the latter either.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or TWTR prior to lock-up expiration ( I was going buy some puts), but it had already dropped so much leading up to it that I (and I think you) didn't end up doing that. :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, that was my strategy all along. I was going to buy some puts about 1 month prior to lockup, but it had already dropped so much that I wasn't sure anymore. Of course, it turned out that it still would have been a great play nonetheless. Even buying puts the day before lockup was a great bet.

    But buying puts is not the same as shorting a stock though, since with the latter you have potential for unlimited losses.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, I didn't sell any this Monday since the spike was too short-lived and I missed out. I did sell some weekly 210's just right now, and will be looking to watch them expire worthless tomorrow.

    I recommend not copying this strategy though, since my exit strategies are unique (as is everyone's situation).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone else believe that we're seeing BUY ON RUMORS and SELL on news? Would make moere sense to buy PUTS in that case, no?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Based on the fact my solar stocks are having a good day as well I think we are in the "what stocks do I buy when oil prices look to be on the rise?" mode:
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/12/markets-oil-idUKL4N0OT1B020140612
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with not recommending that, but for education sake, what are your thoughts? Is this move pattern based, thinking Elon's tweet is buy the rumor, sell the news, or perhaps today's move is only related to rising oil prices and will reduce tomorrow? (something else or some combination of course)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that TSLA's move has everything to do with rising oil prices and absolutely nothing to do with Elon's tweet. There is no way that a simple tweet like that is going to add close to $1b in market value.

    I think that once Elon releases information at 10am then the stock might move a little based on the substance of that information; if material.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He has 711,000 followers, plus multiple news sources covering this single tweet, so I'm with you - I think it's people buying on the rumor. Now just hope that the news that comes out in one hour better be freaking awesome (to the investors) if not maybe it'll drop like crazy?

    The worst thing that can happen is big investors pulling out and selling everything minutes before 10am PDT (or anytime from now till then), and then the retail investors are left to catch the falling knives..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was wondering if this little rally today was helping my LEAPs. Well, yes it is of course, but man is IV way down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The fact is that the stock went down and saw weakness over the past week because Elon mentioned he might do something radical with Tesla's patents. So, I highly doubt that an announcing a firm date/time to discuss this situation is actually going to make Wall St. all of a sudden reverse course and now buy shares. Sell the rumor, buy the rumor... doesn't make much sense.

    IMO it is pretty clear that alternative energy stocks are going up today due to turmoil in Iraq and rising oil prices. This is also the reason why the rest of the market may be down...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The weakness was very low volume no? We have already exceeded the volume of each of those days today. Also, I'm thinking maybe the weakness was because he wasn't specific so it was deemed "risky" to hold shares with no information. Now we are going to get specifics so they are pushing the price up... for now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. I had sold some $220s last week that expire tomorrow that are effectively worthless that I was wanting to buy back and resell at a lower strike. $210 is skin of the teeth close for me but $212.50s look like good risk/reward for me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exact same story with solar stocks. Weak/flat over the past week on extremely low volume. Solar up big today on larger volume (but still somewhat below average).

    Take a look at the daily chart of TSLA and TAN. You will see that they moved pretty much in unison today.

    For these reasons I believe that the market is simply giving TSLA the exact same treatment as other alternative energy stocks. The tweet is immaterial and IMO nobody is going to buy based on this tweet, especially since the overwhelming consensus is that sharing IP is a negative for a stock. I suspect that the market will start pricing in this information once it is released by Elon, because at this point it is very hard to imagine a scenario where this release will have a significant positive impact on TSLA; in which case it would not make sense to buy the rumor.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Superchargers for everyone would be fantastic for Tesla shareholders, if that is in fact what Elon announces. EV adoption = win.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that he already said that superchargers are available for everyone several times in the past. The only problem is:

    1. Other companies will have to share capital costs based on customer usage.
    2. Other cars do not have a big enough battery to take advantage of supercharging. With a Tesla Model S you can go from 50 miles of range to 180 miles of range in 20 minutes. With a Nissan Leaf you might go from 20 miles of range to 40 miles in 20 minutes. But in order to get to full 80 or 100 miles, you will probably need to sit there for 2 hours as the batteries can't handle high charge rates, especially near full loads.

    There is no way that you can open up superchargers to everyone unless other cars are designed with supercharging capability in mind and have 200+ miles of range; there needs to be heavy wiring in the cars to handle high currents.

    Also, this would just clog up superchargers and cause Tesla owners to get very upset very soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I think sleepy ist right here. The Problem for the carmakers at this point ist to create the battery-packs that can handle supercharging. Tesla has developed and successfully tested a really sophisticated battery pack management system. My bet is that Elon want's to share this technology, since Tesla has a real advantage here. I have a friend here in Germany who is working on his doctorate in the field of Battery R&D sponsored by BMW, who seemed to be pretty impressed by Teslas battery management system and said: Quote "That's where they really have a huge technological advantage over other manufacturers".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What if they share it, in a way that doesn't hurt Tesla? What if this sparks a revolution in car manufacturing, akin to the "PC-compatible" revolution?

    Maybe we're 20 minutes away from history in the making.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have not joined you all in selling covered calls...probably should. I bought weekly 205s Monday. Sold them today on the first spike only to see a better second spike. Well, at least that option trade was 'green' but could have been 'greener'!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There has to be more to it than this simple statement. I'm trying to think hard about Tesla's underlying fundamentals and how other manufacturer's having this information would hurt Tesla. It's not like any of them can scale up that quickly without the much discussed cannibalization of their existing lineups. They also can't produce batteries fast enough for any kind of meaningful numbers.

    I don't know what it is that I'm missing, but I do believe there is more than meets the eye here. I mean, SpaceX doesn't patent anything, and yet nobody has followed their footsteps...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I think the question now is valuation. If TSLA is a technology company then it must be valued based on its IP, which now is free. If TSLA is a manufacturing company, then it must be valued on its output, which now is minimal. Again, TSLA's stock price premium is put squarely back to its "promise" of geniii and gigafactory. It's increasingly looking like a show-me stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    he's effectively "marking to market" TSLA's patent portfolio... that messes with TSLA's valuation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's always been a "show me" stock, which is why it has done so well... they keep showing us!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Practicing IP attorneys know that, in general, patents are a zero sum game. Makework and full employment programs. This is the smartest thing Tesla has done so far. They are production constrained in perpetuity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well it sucks to be right, we are officially back in the red..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ... And this is how $200 will not hold.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doesn't look like much volume on the patent news and while things are going down it looks to be market related. I would say the market, in fact, does not think it is important. Although there is some digestion time here so we'll see. I personally think it affects nothing and I would be surprised to see another automaker copy Tesla's design anytime soon. The truth is there is a lot of software behind it and it isn't easy to get that software working. That is why all the other automakers have taken the easy route with prismatic cells.

    Would've been nice if I bought puts this morning though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You may be right and I may be wrong about $200 but I really tip my hat to you if you knew that TM would release ALL patents resulting in sub $200


    on another note. As a sharehokder my initial response is 'not happy'. However, as someone who wants to see rapid adoption of EVs for the health of my kids/future grandkids....very happy!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @login actually we are clearly underperforming the market after the announcement. The huge drop at 1:28 from 205 to 203.8 was an example, the Nasdaq composite was actually flat at that time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA looks much the same as most of my solar stocks. If I weren't aware of Tesla's announcement, I couldn't tell simply by looking at the stock movement that anything was up other than a general drop across the board (JASO/CSIQ/TSLA/etc) at about the same point in time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @ck actually CSIQ is still above their opening price. TSLA is already under it's opening price, and also below it's previous close...

    Edit: Heads up. CNBC to later discuss whether Tesla's patent move is crazy..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So Elon Musk is basically saying, Tesla is to electric cars as IBM is to PC's. Tesla has a head start, but is there reason to think they won't be overrun by competitors in the long run? I've been investing in Tesla because I thought they would end up the Microsoft of cars with their technology licensed in each vehicle. I'm sure this will help with the widespread adoption of EVs, but I'm not convinced this is a good thing for TSLA shareholders.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, mostly I was thinking there wasn't/isn't a lot of volume but yeah on that metric it looks like TSLA lost a couple points relative to solars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're misunderstanding. Looking at the point in time where the announcement occurred, I'm talking about stock direction, not absolute measure against the open.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because Tesla opened it's patents... is anything that is built ON the base patent (any improvements made) also open too?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ideally that would be the case but there probably is no legal way to do that as there is with software. I think keeping full ownership and telling others they won't sue is the best they can do.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Patents are only one form of IP. They're not releasing their software, battery pack designs, car technology, and know how.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This means that this move has been discussed and agreed upon with the boards and execs. Steve Jurvetson is no idiot. If he approves, I approve. Plus, JB Straubel also mentioned, Tesla is as much of an energy innovation company than a car company. If this counterlogic move is successful, Tesla better be prepared to sell a lot of energy/batteries

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you think of Tesla as on track to be the worlds largest electric energy pack producer, this patent policy makes it an even more attractive investment. Imagine 3 Giga factories with in the next 7 years. Once dedicated to Tesla Vehicles, One dedicated to producing for other car companies and one dedicated to produce power packs for stationary storage. Speculate to maybe 10 Giga factories in 10 to 15 years (This is a total WAG on my part).

    I'm sure there are those out there that could do some modeling to figure out the profit potential available for that part of the business. Also add in the 300k to 500k unit volume Tesla branded cars and the profit from that and my guess would be that the current share price is not reflective of the possible profit paired with a reasonable P/E ratio for a growth company in the early/mid stage of it's life.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I totally agree. But it wil take time for others to appreciate how brilliant this move was.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed. I suspect this is ultimately about the battery Gigafactories. One of the motives for making today's patent announcement may have been to inspire Panasonic to more quickly, unambiguously and aggressively partner with Tesla Motors in the Gigafactory ventures.

    This may force other carmakers to adopt the Tesla/Panasonic small cell battery technology as the standard. Perhaps of even greater importance the Gigafactories will also supply solar storage capabilities for homes and businesses.

    Tesla may not only eventually become the world's dominant automaker, but even more profitably the top energy supplier for a wide variety of purposes.

    Elon Musk, I salute your for your genius and creativity that benefits not only your shareholders and car owners, but all of mankind.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The competitors still have to make a build vs. buy determination, and for most traditional car makers they'd probably prefer to buy anyway. Opening up the patents means that they have less to fear and can more easily deal with Tesla, without having to worry about licensing fees going up once they're hooked. Also, it means there can be a second source they can go to if Tesla goes belly up. Personally I think it's an extremely savvy move.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is just to bump Curt's post to top of page.

    If Tesla shifts from car making to energy management I will stay invested for longer. There are too many risks with car making, much less with energy management.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think you'll get both Auzie. Don't see a shift as much as concurrent operations. Energy management is such a relatively easy by product and Elon-JB both firmly committed to that. Don't think there'll be any reason not to do both since the capital structures also feed directly into each other. I suppose at some point one could be a subsidiary of the other, but for the next decade, I'd guess both become equal parts of Tesla Power Co - my 2c
    �
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