Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 17

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The range mention is just another attempt to pump down the stock, the word "range" is one of there main arguments. It works for some people and they know it. But the believers of these stories are just about a few days before being bitten right in the cohonas by something called reality.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla production estimated to SLOW?? That headline does not make any sense! They have barely started with production, it can only increase from here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wunderlich securities first gives raving reports after factory visist, sets one of the highest price targets , then all of a sudden, on virtually no facts/solid news what so ever, switch to a sell rating with the lowest price target of all recommendations. This seems fishy? Am I paranoid for thinking this is blunt market manipulation? I will choose to see it as a chance to buy below $30.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't believe there is a slowdown. I bet ya that this was planned. And it all makes sense. You build a few dozen cars, give a few to some people who can keep their mouth shut. Then you take a few dozen engineers and send them on the road to observe drivers behaviors for a month to make sure they didn't overlook anything. Fixing little details along the way.

    This means, once they deliver the cars, they will be no surprise. They did 5000 test drives and more, it's simply brilliant.

    I'm learning a lot from them.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    They probably meant SLOW compared to the expected ramp up.

    Question is: Whose expectation? There have been a few guesses here and there, but the only official statement was 5.000 in 2012. That could be anything at this point. They could build all 5.000 in december and still not be slower than they promised.

    Now we know they have plans for the ramp up of the production process and they are sending out invitations for finalizing the design, signing contracts and such. But these plans were not published.

    Looks like a good opportunity to get some stocks at bargain prices.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't wait and be greedy. It's time to buy and hold. And hold on to it like it was your baby and some kind of weird animal was looking at it with bad intentions.

    Now is not the time to try to time this market. We just don't know when it'll explode, why risk not being there for a few bucks?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Earnings and short numbers tomorrow after market close.

    I will be on the hammock + computer + beer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There have been so many "buying opportunties" over the last 6 months I'm beyond tapped out of unallocated money.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And that, ladies and gentlemen is why we don't buy and hold. If you didn't sell anything when the price jumped ~$10, you only have yourself to blame for having no cash to buy more now.

    "Sell on the way up buy on the way down." I'm just going to keep saying it...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Somebody get some water, he's going to need it with a stock this volatile.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    lol. Indeed. Though, I think it is the people who think that "sell" is a dirty word that are going to make me keep repeating it. Nobody here is a stronger believer in Tesla and Elon than me, but when it comes to my money, I don't get religious about it. Got to stay objective.

    EDIT:
    To be fair, I did get swept up a bit in this last jump. I sold some at nearly $36 because I saw the rumor that there were delays, and that was on my list of "sell first ask questions later" events, but I didn't sell nearly enough because I got greedy. I then stepped in the next day and bought some of it back because I wanted to believe that the coast was clear (since nothing showed up in the news). I was too early, I didn't realize how much of a lead I had on the mainstream press. This leaves me with less cash than I would like to have now that we are below $30, but at least I have some.

    I log every trade I make, and go back to review whether it was right or wrong and if wrong, where I went wrong. While I did the right thing initially here, I wasn't agressive enough selling and goofed up in the aftermath. Probably my biggest misstep of the year. Need to learn from this one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I Agree it was a good ride.

    It was.

    Selling now would be a horrible timing. This thing is about to explode, how long to wait still? Don't know. But getting out and wait for a dip is too risky at this time, maybe after the surge, but not now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I said sell on the way up. We are clearly on the way down and I would not advise anyone to sell at this point.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think what Steph is saying is we may not have more downs.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At this point in time, I would advise against selling on the way up until shorts are all gone. We will have gigantic up swings, equivalent downs, impossible to time, we will be off the chart, technicals will mean nothing.

    We'll see tomorrow if some of them found the exit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought he was just saying that if you take your money out right now and try to buy back even lower, you might miss out on the rally. I'm agreeing with him. If you didn't sell yet, it's too late now. In fact, if you have cash, I'd buy some here, then wait to see what the earnings call brings tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right on.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not trying to time anything. That's a losing game. Just taking a bit of the table for when the inevitable rainy day comes. Nobody ever got hurt taking a profit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Except the taxpayer. Zing!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You only get taxed on money you make. I'd love to have a huge tax bill, another high-quality problem.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was responding to...
    ... so yah, it's on the money you make....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, dumb "Investing and Tax Prep 101" question; with all the sales and buys of TSLA - at different price levels - that some of you might be doing, is it easy to do your Schedule D for such stock transactions? If they are all short-term, I guess it's moot as to which lot a particular sale (and the consequent gain/loss) comes from?!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's really easy if your broker allows you to export your gains/loss statement in TXF format, which most tax prep software allows you to import.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So much for today's sunshine...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @gg_ - After doing it the painful way a couple years, I got a tax guy. It's less effort and I sleep better.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you use many of the mainstream brokerages (I use TD Ameritrade), you can directly import your trading history into Quicken.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, all, for the input. I use Sharebuilder that does offer a bridge to TurboTax so, will try to make that work next year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How can it slow down, if it hasn't ramped up yet?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd be surprised if they aren't just hoping it to drop to near $28 so they can buy a bunch cheap. As far as I can tell, their credibility is going to suffer immensely, and not just with us.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're probably right, but journalists (supposedly) should have better use of language.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here. I'm just hoping it'll shoot up, I sell a bunch, and buy twice as much when it overshoots on the way down.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short numbers are out early, individual investors (formerly known as idiots) stayed in as expected. They will have the ride of their life.
    Capture.PNG

    Edit: the four likes are mine.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TurboTax will directly import your transactions from many brokerages, as it also does for other data like wages (W-2's), bank account interest, etc. Also, regarding pairing stock sales with purchases, brokerages are now required to report your cost basis to the IRS, thus you must identify your method (like FIFO, First In First Out) in advance.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are D man! !!

    ..So,what percent of holdings do you sell on the way up?
    in case it is Really going up,like REALLY

    mobiletypingsucks. .sent from gtablet
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It varies depending on how much I believe in the long term story and how volatile the stock is. For Tesla, lately I've been selling no more than 1/3 of my position on the the way up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Awfully quiet on this thread! I expected a ton of traffic this morning given where TSLA is at and given the earnings call after close - I put faith in TSLA and put an entire Model S battery pack level upgrade at stake today at $29.09.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not a lot to say. I hope that Elon has some surprises up his sleeve, or that the guidance is significantly better than expected. The stock could use some help reversing direction now that we've fallen through the first level of support.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would setup a poll if I knew how, but I'm curious what people think is driving the stock down right now? Is it concerns about earnings or about the speculated production slow down? Seems to me that most people are so used to them losing money that they won't care about losses until they are expected to be cashflow+, so I am thinking investors are mainly concerned with meeting production "guidance".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA remains a super-volatile stock which in turn means that there are some extreme reactions to good news, bad news and especially rumors either way.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Stock is getting hit because all the data from reservation holders shows there is no way we are getting to 5,000 units by the end of this year. Buying opportunity if you believe production will ramp fast enough so they don't need to raise more money.

    *they could slow to almost half through Q2 2013 and still be fine on the balance sheet
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @tander: No poll, please! My guess is:
    (a) continued uncertainty in Europe, which depresses demand for Tesla in the EU and depresses the euro, making key rivals of the Model S potentially cheaper.
    (b) continued concern about the pace of delivery and related car quality/cost concerns
    (c) expectation of bigger-than-expected burn rates in Q2, with more-negative EPS than many analysts predicted.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The rumors about delays and that downgrade is what got us started, perfect excuse for more shorts to pile on and for longs to take profits. That was accelerated by the mess in Europe which has been weighing on the whole market. Right now it this is purely technical (in my opinion) we fell through our support level at the 200-day, so now gravity is pulling us down to the next level of support.

    Unless there is some new bombshell on the earnings call tonight, I think we are very near the bottom of this move.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shorts that own media outlets?
    The test cars are pretty good. Polishing the inner details mentioned will make it pretty awesome.

    I am doubtful that the factory won't be able to pump out consistent solid cars once all of the assembly techs are trained
    (tried to sound a little like a journalist there)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Still down this morning.

    Pretty amazing. These people are going to the slauther house and have no idea. Capitalism would not be the same without idiots.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What data are you talking about?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The term "data" might imply harder facts than we have, but various Sig and R(oadster) folks are getting delivery times in November. If that's really the ramp up, it's hard to see how they'd hit 5k for the year in the time left since producing enough cars after that to hit 5k would put them above a 20k/year run rate.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, so I'm guessing these are people with pretty early reservations that expected to get delivery earlier. I'm very eager to hear what they have to say today...I could see how they can easily have slow 3Q production and still meet the yearly targets, but that info is a little concerning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There are various possibilities that would work though. 20k/year was a sales target, not a production limitation. Maybe Tesla will temporarily run at a higher rate for a couple months. I'm not sure what the staffing implications are, but they may be able to do that. Or maybe, based on sales trends, they'll produce 25k/year and the ramp up assumes that. None of this is known or even rumored, I'm just saying there are scenarios where they could still reasonably hit 5k. There's just far less margin for error now on that number.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Manipulation of idiots.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Constructive, well-informed, intelligent comment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not even sure if he means that I am manipulating or being manipulated, I must be an idiot!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    whats driving the stock down would appear to be the nasdaq overall is still relatively coupled
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You mean the NASDAAPL? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    indeed apple is altering this index in a big way!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank-you.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon has stated that by the end of Dec they will likely be running "at or above" the 20K/annum rate. I think there's way more flex available than is being taken into account. Simple version: run a Saturday shift. 20% output increase.

    There's also the question of the length of the delivery pipeline. I.e., how long after a car leaves the line till it arrives on buyer's doorstep?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly. They will most likely have 5,000 customer cars built by the end of the year, but no way will they have 5,000 cars delivered.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I think the biggest risk now is a material drop off in the production rate > $28 if true �.. to new highs if not!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, they were usually using the term "capacity", which I interpret to mean production ability, however more recently they also said more explicitly that were expecting to sell that many, but yes, in any case, that is meant more as a minimum in terms of production ability. And I think it is 20k for one shift, with the ability to run two shifts with a total capacity of 35,000 (or more). However, they were talking about two shifts only in the context of Model X, so far, I think.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ask is up to 31 after hours
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bid 29.9 @ 4:12 est
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    500 deliveries in 3rd quarter, the remaining 4,500 in Q4. Still projecting 5,000 total. Now making 2 cars per day versus 1 in June.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks good to me, only a slight revision from 1000 to 500 in Q3:


    "We are maintaining our revenue guidance of $560 - $600 million and our Model S volume projection of 5,000 units for 2012. We expect to deliver approximately 500 vehicles to customers in Q3 with the balance delivered in Q4. In June we were producing cars at the rate of about 5 per week. The pace of production has approximately doubled as of this week and we are ramping methodically. This plan gives us more time in Q3 to ensure quality production and allows us and our suppliers time to ramp operations commensurate with our delivery schedules.
    We are reaffirming our gross margin target of 25% in 2013 upon achieving the manufacturing efficiencies and planned cost reductions associated with our objective of 20,000 deliveries in 2013. We anticipate that our
    Get Amped Tour, Denver
    automotive sales gross margin will become positive just before the end of Q3 of this year since until then our cost of automotive sales will reflect the full burden of operating our Tesla Factory, including depreciation for our manufacturing facility and equipment, allocated across only a limited number of vehicles. In Q4, we expect automotive sales gross margin to improve significantly mainly due to higher volume, as well as cost efficiencies and planned cost reductions.
    We expect that R&D spending should decline sequentially in Q3 by about 20% as our Model S manufacturing expenses will be reflected in cost of goods sold rather than in R&D and as
    one time Model S development expenses decline. Selling, general and administrative expenses should continue to rise moderately on a quarterly basis as we continue to increase our vehicle selling and servicing capabilities.
    We remain on plan for capital expenditures of about $210 million for the year. For the rest of 2012, this spending will cover final payments on Model S related tooling and equipment, Model X development, and increases in our stores, galleries, service centers and overall operational capabilities to handle high volume sales. We currently expect to be close to free cash flow breakeven in Q4 of this year."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From Q2 letter: "... with a target of delivering 5000 units this year."

    Someone will be working Christmas day (and some will be getting nice christma's gifts) this year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Production as of today is 10 cars a week...

    We are maintaining our revenue guidance of $560 - $600 million and our Model S volume projection of 5,000 units for 2012. We expect to deliver approximately 500 vehicles to customers in Q3 with the balance delivered in Q4. In June we were producing cars at the rate of about 5 per week. The pace of production has approximately doubled as of this week and we are ramping methodically. This plan gives us more time in Q3 to ensure quality production and allows us and our suppliers time to ramp operations commensurate with our delivery schedules.

    (Emphasis added by me - information taken from the quarterly letter to investors)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    GAAP net EPS of ($1.00) is below consensus ($0.92). That will keep the stock soft, IMO, for myopic investors who think quarterly EPS of a startup is meaningful.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wish they'd have said when they plan to start delivering the vehicles they've been building. At t 5/wk there should be about 20-25 built since the big delivery show on June 22nd...are they all going to test drive events or have they gone to customers we haven't heard about or are they building a stockpile to start delivering them at some predetermined threshold?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good point
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm missing something about the reservation payments.

    In the shareholder letter they mentioned the total to be 133,447k$ as of June 30.

    I guess there are about 1,200 signature reservation payments (1,000 US, 200 non US) at 40 k$, accounting for 48 M$

    That leaves us with 85 M$ for general production reservation payments at 5k$ each, which amounts to 17,000.

    It just doesn't figure with the statement of 11.500 Model S reservations.

    We do not know, how many Model X reservations there are, but this will not make up for the balance. Does anyone have an estimate on the X Sig reservation number?

    Can anyone help me with the math?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You forget 500 EU Model S sigs, 1300 P Model X reservations and 150-200 Model X Sigs worldwide (see the Model X Tally thread).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That would explain it. Thank you.

    Tesla is doing great on the reservations, considering they have not delivered many Model S.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I understood correctly, about $130 million of those have been made, leaving about $80 million for 2012.

    I understand this to mean that in Q4, cash resources will not be reduced by much anymore (assuming 4500 deliveries).

    Does this mean 2012 should be concluded with more than $100 million in cash resources, and at a breakeven point (in terms of cash resources)?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's the difference between cash flow breakeven and actual (profit/loss) breakeven?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The text refers to "free cash flow breakeven", and lists cash resources for each quarter. That appears to be a quite practical, understandable and useful term.

    The "net loss" for this quarter is $105 million, which is a different (smaller) number than the difference in cash resources between Q1 and Q2. Perhaps Nigel would know more about those differences.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From the investor call - Elon stated that to date 40 production cars have been built...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon pushed on run rate � says he slowed down ramp (seems a little nervous)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He always seems nervous when he's talking publicly, but I think maybe his brain thinks faster than his mouth, and when he's saying something he's thinking a lot about how to say it so that other can understand it :) I don't think he's nervous, he sounds confident in the choise (quality over quantity, exact ramp up schedule not so important because when they reach high production rate it won't matter if it took a few more weeks to get there).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not much I can add to that explanation. What Tesla is basically saying is that they expect to stop eating into their cash flow sometime in Q4; that is largely unrelated to whether they are making a loss or not.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's it exactly, Johan.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    VERY INTERSTING: He answers Jonas from MS; we will be above 20k a year rate at the end of the year, and "why level off if demand is there?". He's bascially confirming that they have the capability of producing (much?) more than 20k cars a year with the current factory, staff and equipment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From the shareholder letter:

    John. Peterson. Eat. Hat. :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sept announcement for supercharging .. surprise included!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, that pretty conclusively states they're planning to hit 5k by hitting a run rate of significantly more than 20k/year. I'll keep my fingers crossed they make it happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon: "Comfortably we could have a production rate next year that is comfortably 50% better than 20k". That's 30.000/year last time I checked. :)
    Deepak: "We have flexibility".
    Elon: "We have to train a second shift, we don't want cars coming off the second shift with lesser quality". "We don't want to have the B-team on the second shift".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you guys court reporters? Some of these quotes are almost BEFORE the audio on the call!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    phew! Dumped my shares that I had bought the past two days when it was up over 4% AH. Now down over 2%. Sometimes you just gotta take a profit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon quote: "We're not a demand constraint company, we are production constraint ... that's our focus but not at the expense of quality."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well done, I was thinking of doing just that (but didn't), but really: is is dropping (now 28.05) in afterhours just because the posted a larger loss than expected??? Talk about short-sighted, short-minded investors!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I'm sure a lot of it has to do also with reducing Q3 output and back loading it to Q4. They're not leaving themselves much margin for error if they expect to produce 4500 of the 5000 cars this year in just 3 months. I think a lot of investors are skeptical of this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha:
    GeorgeB: I watch the message board daily. He talks about the "rumor" about founder's cars added that he had to "shut down".
    The projected dates were not "firm dates" and were corrected. "You can't go by what's on the boards".
    Elon: Judge us by cars delivered. "When you don't have information you can get into speculation that is just not based on anything".
    "We are one of the most short sold stocks". Talks about how a lot of people have a lot of interest in saying anything negative about the company.

    Elon: "2015 is likely to be production constrained rather than demand constrained"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought he was talking about 2013, not 2015? Have to check the replay...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, but he also said 2014 and 2015!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon: "We're seeing demand acceleration without trying". These guys are really fired up here at the end of the call!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hehe, I think I got called out;)
    Looks like I was one of those early people that got a specific date. I never took that as a hard date though. I do understand why they stopped with the exact dates.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, Zythryn and Discoducky (and we collectively at TMC) being put to the sword apart, it was a great call! Elon just wanted to keep saying more to add 'color' to Deepak's and George's comments.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They won't hire and train a second shift just to get the initial backlog out of the way. They'd have to be batsh*t crazy to do that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But if reservations keep coming in at current or increased tempo, why wouldn't they want to sell 30k cars a year if they can???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good stuff � bought another 200 after hours @ 28.02
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, not just for that, and in any case I think not yet in Q4, that was a more general remark about the capacity of the line, just as they mentioned the possibility of two shifts also in the Q&A session today. However, Elon did say that when the production increases to its high level in Q4, they may produce at a higher rate than 20k/year, in balance to the slow(-er) ramp-up in Q3. (EDIT: And that they might keep a higher level if the corresponding demand will be there.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    People are really selling off on the under production news. I thought a hiccup or two was expected, especially from a start up like Tesla. Things don't go off without a hitch in the auto industry, just look at Toyota, GM, Nissan...etc. I think this sell off/panic is over blown but it creates a great buying opportunity for anybody who missed out on the last dip.

    Not to mention next year is when they make their first profit and their stock really starts to take off.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Look for support from shorts covering tomorrow. A thoughtful read of the Q2 letter would, IMO, make me want to cover.

    The skeptics are thinking like this: Q3 production is real; Q4 production is aspirational; I'll trade on real, not unicorns. Real says <2,000 deliveries, cash-flow negative Q4 2012, and continuing operational problem into 2013.

    I'm thinking: pick up another 1,000 shares tomorrow?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought 500 at Tuesday's close (was a little under $30 at that time), I only bought 500 so I could buy some more if the price continues down.
    I might wait and see where it heads for a few days, it's certainly a buying opportunity for sure. The short sellers will be putting upward pressure on it, as they cover their shorts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is SO amusing to listen to these analysts desperately trying to catch up with the innovative and completely unconventional thinking of Elon and his team. You can almost hear the quizzical overloaded expressions on their faces.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright. Looks like we won't get a big bang. They seem to like excessive premilinaries.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Vger, that IS their problem, they are trying to analyze TSLA like any other car manufacturer, of course they are unlike anything seen to date, so they are befuddled. Focusing on quarter-quarter P/L, they are very likely to miss the big picture (and eventual rapid stock price increase). As has been said before, don't bet against Elon, his track record is excellent to date, demand is high for the Model S, and they are years ahead of most other mfrs, including Nissan.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As we said, it can happen any time, but I'd guess it will take a trigger like reaching high production volume (Q4), profit (Q1 2013), or even continued reservations past the first 20k (mid 2013). In theory, the Supercharger announcement might do it, but in practice it'll probably have to be something that involves proof in a more traditional business sense.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh good. I was hoping that we'd be down today. Time to bring out the big guns: purchasing call options today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Funny to watch the reaction of the stock price compared to the mood of the investor conference call. Is it just me or were Elon and the guys starting to sound a little bit giddy?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd be willing to bet 95% or more of the people trading TSLA today did not listen to the conference call or read a transcript. Very typical. If you read the headlines and didn't listen to the conference call you'd have a completely different perspective on the quarter.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was my impression. Watching the stock nose dive in the last week has been depressing, especially juxtaposed against a giddy conference call and overwhelmingly positive reviews. It'll come back up, I just regret having no money to buy with. I thought about looking into buying on margin, but I'm already over exposed with as much of my spare money as I've put into TSLA already.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just my personal opinion: never, never, never, never, never buy on margin.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess some investors start to loose their patience in TSLA, expecting the stock to keep rocketing up while TSLA has still some work ahead towards profitability and than some.

    Here on this forum also, unfounded speculation sometimes leads to unrealistic expectations concerning the developement of the company and its products and the trajectory of the stock price slope. Rome wasn't build in one day and neither will a company that will shake up an entire industry.

    It maybe fun to trade on the way up and down, but if you're in it for the long run be patient as that long run maybe go longer than you think. TSLA could be trading on this level for many months to come. It will take some quarters of profits to lay a foundation on which the stock price could eventually build on.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you're short TSLA, there was plenty in the call to keep you in the game. Only 10 cars delivered. Musk said the 5000 cars in 2012 goal was "soft." Still hundreds of little quality problems. The supercharger announcement got pushed out 2 months, and maybe more. There was talk about doing a capital raise.

    Citizen-T: How far out are you looking for calls? Are you looking all the way to the Jan '14 LEAPS, or just Mar '13? Or, are you thinking some short-term play? Just curious.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shorter than that. I just think we are oversold here and near term, a bounce is gonna happen. I'm trying to decide between Sept and Dec. and a strike price between $30 and $33. I like Sept. better, because I think it will capture QE3 and the supercharger announcement. But, if the supercharger event gets delayed again, or if it is late Sept, I might miss it.

    What I'd really like is Oct., but not available.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really have no idea how bright the short-sellers are. The only "hope" they have of winning on their shorts is Tesla failing to start repaying the loan in December and a downward spiral from there on. From a distance Tesla is still a software company attempting to make cars, and the odds at success based on that are next to zero.

    Most short-sellers spend an hour or so analyzing a stock; they don't watch Elon's every talk, don't see what Elon's done to SpaceX, and can't imagine that the world is changing rapidly in one where a car *is* for a large part a software product.

    Only when TSLA starts making a profit will they finally believe what they see.

    There are people who make thing happen, people who see things happening, and those who wonder what the h*ll just happened.

    I think we can all find examples of each of those categories!
    �
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