Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 15

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I saw the drop this morning and just assumed there was some profit-taking going on. I also put in a limit order to pick up more if it drops further. I'm long, so not looking to sell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not that I put any value in what they have to say, but the Motley Fool gang also seem to have gone from BUY TESLA IT'S GREAT to IT GOT THE DREADED ONE STAR RATING...

    *shrug indeed*
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The volume looks pretty heavy for whatever reason this morning (and the end of yesterday).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm long too. The shares I sold amounted to less than 10% of my total position. Just thought if I was nimble enough I might be able to buy back in cheaper. I might even put that money back to work by the end of the day if nothing further comes to light about delays. Elon was at the movies last night...doesn't seem like things are spiraling out of control if he's got time to go to the movies.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep.

    And I also believe it's just some profit taking this morning, TSLA is very visible on all speculator's screens since a few days. Expect wilder and wilder swings.

    As for the rumor, I don't think the market reads the TeslaMotorsClub forum...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which is why we have the advantage: we hear it first. The question is, will it stay contained, or will someone in the media pick it up (not necessarily through the TMC forum). I'm hoping we'll get confirmation from someone today that their car is still on track. I consider this rumor very suspect at this point.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Motley Fool is not a uniform top-down set of analysts, and in addition many of the writings we see are coming from bloggers (like us), not people who actually work for them. They encourage a variety of thoughts and opinions, and there have been cases where one of their services was recommending a stock while another was effectively shorting it. So Motley Fool is really just a microcosm of the general trading population.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    5.5% drop as profit taking after a 20% runup? I doubt it. Why is there no conviction on Tesla as a stock? The price should be way higher using any future valuation model. What happened to resistance? This is nuts. Tesla has been ignoring the market movement for the past week. Why should it start reacting to it now. I don't buy that as an answer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because the majority of traders aren't trading the fundamentals, they are trading the technicals.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are an impatient little monster are you?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is the post starting the "delay-gate"

    It makes sense he will not get his car on 8/1... he's got a regular sig #2. SSL #000001 will be delivered that week.

    Sounds like a non-issue to me. You guys are too nervous ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My take on this, lots of traders got in yesterday before close in the hope it opens higher this morning. As good day traders, they use stop loss.

    This morning, it opened lower, triggering all stop loss, bringing a cascade of sales and long got to buy the dip.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No one knows. It's the stock market. Most of the analysts didn't see the market collapse coming either so that their advice for what it's worth. I believe they've set a target of about $40 so $60 off of your projected target.
    I'd still recommend getting out of the stock market. This much anger over a single stock can not be healthy.

    Wait, you weren't pissed before too? If you truly believe in Tesla stock, don't watch it from day to day. The market is not rational and you should expect it to be. If Tesla does well over the long term, so will your stock so there is nothing to worry about then. Only reason to watch stock daily (if it angers you this much) is if you are trying to day trade and make a big profit quickly.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Outstanding opportunity to add some Tesla to your mix. Traded out yesterday at the middle of the high (definitely not at the peak). I was mad at myself for taking profits at a lower price point. Today certainly changed that view point. Today, I was able to purchase at a much better price waiting for the next rise.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How about watching it for the fun of it?

    Where is the fun in your life? ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting article. He seems concerned about Tesla's cash reserves. But wouldn't cash flow and cash reserves improve dramatically once deliveries ramp up?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This guy is working for us. Pumping the shorts... It's like a pump and dump game but the opposite.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you come up with these each time, or do you just recycle previous postings? If the stock's behavior doesn't make sense to you, you should get out. Really.

    You want sense? It's super-easy to play devil's advocate. I'll psudeo-quote a bear case:

    So, stop whining. Cali, you should get out of the stock since you don't understand what the very real challenges are for Tesla. Take your profit and be happy - you're not suited to invest in Tesla because you don't understand the risks.

    Note to all: I myself am bullish on Tesla and fully support the company. I'm just not willing to wear rose tinted glasses.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't find it interesting at all. Indeed, I tuned out after the second paragraph. Anyone who has to congratulate themselves and bolster their ego that much before even getting to the meat of an article is about as interesting as watching paint dry. AND full of 'it'.

    In terms of the 'rumor' that delivery is going to be delayed because of quality control issues, then I say: That's better than having a recall. It seems Tesla is damned if they do and damned if they don't. That's fine by me too. I can see the forest for the trees, so it concerns me not. Indeed, I say carry on as you are.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hope it doesn't end like this in the end:



    ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Short and distort"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There was an after hours trade not too long after the close last night that knocked TSLA off its feet.
    I was wondering if this was some of the Daimler/Aabar shares that were not turned lose yet.
    I think TSLA will dust itself off and regain composure soon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's typical John Petersen, nothing new, just rehashing his same old articles.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1

    The staff of MF are more positive than the user base who give the 1 star rating (most are shorts).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He's always pissed. At some point I have to wonder if it's an act, no one can be as ignorant about the market as he seems to be, posting the same thing over and over and over again. :rolleyes:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For those of you who are more short-term oriented. I suspect we'll make another run at $36...maybe even tomorrow, but if not, the odds are pretty good that it'll happen by the end of the week. Assuming no really bad news breaks, of course.

    That's the good news, the bad news is that it also looks like it won't work, and we'll retreat to the 200-day once again. Whoever it was that was wondering when to add more shares, now seems like a good time, or wait until we touch the 200 again (maybe around $32.25, we'll see).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Agree, already added more.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a limit order in for $33.15. Though I'm playing chicken with the closing bell at this point over a few pennies. I should probably just eat those 15 cents.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is getting hammered today. And just yesterday I was thinking about profit taking some of the stuff I bought at 28. Oh well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly the same argument I used with, well, myself. :) I had a limit order for slightly higher than that. It executed. I'm happy with my position.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The stock trickled up for days regardless of the market and now, on a day the market is flat, has the biggest 1-day drop in a long while (I scanned the last few months). Hard not to wonder if there's something we haven't heard yet.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess this stock is not for people with heart condition.

    I guess we need to get use to wild moves on both sides. $2-3 move is small compare to what is coming. Hold on to your hats!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    back to my question. what the hell is going on? To answer yours, yes I'm an angry person. That doesn't answer the question of why the heck Tesla just gave back 1 week of gains in 1 day. I am really pissed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You didn't have to change it I guess ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're so cute when you're pissed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't, wasn't fast enough. Lucky me I guess.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I refuse to believe this type of move is a precursor to a huge move up. This move down is very frustrating. I look like a complete idiot after telling someone off for telling me to not buy this stock. I will not sell. Nonetheless, this freak drop is fracking wrong. I need some scotch. Frack this.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not the one who said it. Right mods?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Listening to you folks talk about all this short term action brings back bad memories.

    It reminds me of when I got out of MSFT in 1988 after a decent return and waited for a dip to get back in. No dips and just splits for a decade.
    I got back in later for some nice gains but.... oh my... what it could have been....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Better make it cheap scotch, because with the money you lost today ... well, y'know, need to tighten the belt a bit.

    :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not funny. I was in a good mood yesterday for other reasons and took a few friends out for food with money from the run up. This move makes me look like a fool. Totally fracking wrong.

    @ Bonnie Think again :p (I'd sooner die then drink cheap scotch)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I said 'if it angers you this much' as it does seem to do for him. If watching the stock go up and down is fun, there is nothing wrong with that of course.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Makes sense to me.

    Screen Shot 2012-07-17 at 3.48.06 PM.png

    Despite the flogging we took today, the trend is still intact.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Are you saying you spent money you only had on paper for food?

    I like you :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    confirmed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, back to the means. No news to back this jump.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok. You will not sell. What's with the anger then? If you're planning on keeping it until it hits 100 as you said, you have plenty of time to wait and watch it grow. This anger thing about the stock is getting really old by the way.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really should have taken the profits then. I bet it'll be up tomorrow, the question is, do I bet my money by actually putting it in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You do realize that in order to do that actually have to sell when the price is up? (you keep writing "I won't sell").
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @ Steph, I won't answer that. If you guys are going to turn this into an attack on me, then I won't respond any more. If you want to answer the questions of what the hell is going on, I will give it a go. Don't be rude.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sure don't understand technical trading. Can you provide how you divined these predictions? I feel like I'm at a magic show and everyone knows how it's done except me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't beat yourself up. If this trend keeps, we'll be back up there before you even know it. I took profits yesterday, but as I said, based on rumors, not because I spotted this. I didn't see this until this afternoon.

    I got lucky I guess. Wish I would have sold more on those rumors though. Oh well...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He said he LIKED you. As in, that's something he would do.

    Chill.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Never too careful these days...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oops, wrong quotation?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think people have made it abundantly clear that the stock market is unpredictable and I don't think you'll get the answers you are looking for. Getting on the board or directors would be a good start but if that's not possible, I think you're at the mercy of the stock market and trying to read the public disclosures like everyone else. Making 'sense' of things is almost impossible.

    It's getting very difficult for people to take you seriously and the replies aren't meant to be attacks or personal. It's just that I'd bet 98% of your posts are 'oh no the stock is down....someone explain it to me now!' or something similar. Please dig around the rest of the forum as there is good information there too. Ask questions about the company, the products, what people think is coming down the road...etc and that will maybe make the stock movements make a little more sense. You only want to seem to post here and only when the stock moves up or down.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Groan. 99 was my "magic" MSFT number.

    I think I'm going to walk away, not peek anymore and just let it ride.
    I have confidence in Tesla's product, their people and embrace their vision.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are correct about the market being unpredictable. However, this is different. What stock drops 10% on no news, when it is a legitimate company, unless it's being manipulated? Either something is going on, or someone is playing this stock like a puppet, and the shorts know something I don't.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Muppets explain the stock market:

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Allright Flower power, I will give you my take of what I think happend today, that is just an opinion so it's probably wrong.

    Well, one thing we know is no one really knows and no one will ever know for sure. That said....

    Since about a week, Tesla is beating the market every day, gaining almost 20%. That caught the eyes of many day traders, the technical info they have all point to a breakout. So, they all came in yesterday, bought a lot of shares in hope to ride the coming breakout and possible short squeeze.

    Of course all day traders have stop-loss programmed so if the stock goes down, the exit is automated. They sell to limit losses.

    A pre-market transaction occured this morning for 40k shares with a price down about 4%.

    Right at the open, all these guys bailed-out automatically and the domino effect followed, bringing more and more stop-loss to kick-in.

    That pre-market transaction is the cause for this mini-crash. I bet they knew what they were doing.

    Ho and BTW, those day traders took a hit today. That must hurt.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Really it boils down to using statistics to analyse what large groups of people are likely to do given what they have done in the past. It's a little bit of science and a little bit of an art, and even then you can only speak in terms of probability. Such as, "it is much more likely that we will reverse direction at such-and-such average than it is that we will fall threw it." There is always a probability that the alternative does happen.

    It requires a lot more work than just following the fundamentals of a company, and is more useful over the short term than the long term; so depending on what kind of investor you are, it might not be useful to you at all.

    It's not something I can teach you in a forum post, and it would be reckless to try because you if you tried using it based on such an incomplete education you'll get it wrong. If you have the time and inclination, I suggest doing some research, reading some books, watching some videos, and practicing with some fake money. If you don't, take a longer term view and trade on the fundamentals.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It could be many things, for example people who were betting the stock would go up when Tesla starts production, and they weren't planning to keep the money in Tesla for a longer time than that, So now that the stock went up in the last few days, they may have thought it is good time to take profit (not what I think, though), and move on to making other investments. They may simply not know enough about electric cars, Tesla and the Model S to make a longer term judgement than that.

    Besides, every stock goes down after it goes up. Otherwise it would always go up, and I haven't heard of any stock that would do that, not even the indexes always go up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    QFT..
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was surprisingly educational. I now know what buying on margin means.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There will always be insider trading, people who know more than they are supposed to, or people who have the entire day with nothing else to do than watch the stock market either because they day trade or they are financially secure enough to just play the market. If the market isn't unpredictable to you then you have a leg up on almost everyone else.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is that your quote or is it from Whinnie the Pooh? As simple a statement as it is, it's also a very true statement about the stock market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh bother...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If Steph's theory above about today's drop is correct, which I believe, then whoever made that pre-market big sell that started the price drop may have known exactly what they were doing, and may have been looking to take profit, let the price drop (from stop-losses), re-enter at a lower price (which means they have a long or "semi-long" position to start with). However, to be able to make a pre-market transaction big enough to actually influence the market that much you need to be a BIG player (institution likely). So in a weird way Cauliflower may be right when he calls out "manipulation".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Telsa stock has been 'Bouncy trouncy flouncy pouncy, fun fun fun fun fun' lately.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nothing goes up forever but it can rally for a good while. We did not see it here yet. I mean a good one year rally where is goes to the triple digit territory.

    So, we are kinda use to the sluggish action. But i've seen rallys, they are fun to ride. This one will be special, it will change the world forever.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd expect that a larger rally (than we just had) would require at least one of the following to happen:

    - production rates reach the level where we can see that predicted volumes will be produced.
    - reports from owners owning the car for many weeks and convincingly convey that it works fine in all regards
    - significant growth of the reservations list towards 20k
    - quarter results which prove Tesla is on a path to profit
    - rising gasoline prices
    - signs that government support for electric cars will continue past the election
    - successful RAV4 EV introduction
    - and/or info about additional future volume numbers of Toyota/Daimler contracts

    In the absence of news like those, TSLA will probably just continue to go up slowly (with ups and downs as always).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You sound like a rational investor. Thing is, the crowd is not rational. When the herd realize what this is all about, they will not care about numbers. That's called hype.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree, at some point there will be a realization, on a larger level, that this is a bigger thing than critics think it is. And it could, sort of, happen any time. Just don't see a specific reason that time would be this or next week, so to speak. It (probably) takes some kind of trigger. (Maybe just an analyst upgrade).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right. It could happen any time, that's what makes it so much fun.

    Until then, we will see wild moves, up and down, and up and up, down and up again.

    So, sit down, relax. This could take a while.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    PLEASE don't respond anymore! Your childish rants are irresponsible once again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okay, that crossed the line. Everybody please cool it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I almost sold at 117, before the 119 peak and free fall.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold my entire first batch of MSFT at my �goal� price of $99 around 1989. It split 8 times after that. That means I sold MSFT at 99 cents in my first go-round.
    I got back in MUCH later. It just kept steaming ahead while I waited for dips. I missed a few splits. I bit the bullet and bought. It would have made a significant difference in my life if I stayed in or got back in sooner. I got in at a much higher price for far fewer shares. I stayed until it started to look like critical mass. The last holdouts were finally getting computers for their homes even though they vowed that they would never own one.

    I learned to be more patient with companies that are new, innovative, creative and agile. I bought Microsoft stock when I bought my first computer. (Thanks Peter Lynch!) People would ask why I would ever want a computer. People never even heard of Microsoft. They had millions of customers that never dreamed that they would want to be a customer. Now people can�t be without a computer for more than a few moments. The old guard disregarded Microsoft and they were taken by surprise.

    I see Tesla as a rare Microsoft-like opportunity. They are just getting off the launch pad with the Model S. I see this point in time for Tesla akin to Microsoft just starting to sell the first Microsoft Word. The Roadster was DOS. I�m staying in for the ride.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So with the downgrade and seeing what the pre-market drop yesterday caused when the market opened, are we likely to see something similar today? Or is today very different since we have touched (pre-market 32-low) the 50 day moving average???

    Before I saw the down-grade I put in a limit order for 500 shares at $31.00. Now this is money I can't allow myself to go long with (already have a solid long position) but tops 4 weeks. Hoping for a quick buck... Should I lower the limit??? Below 30???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Jefferies Adjusts Estimates on Tesla Motors (TSLA); Suggests Buying on Weakness ("to account for a slower ramp of production following our plant tour & discussions with TSLA mgmt at the recent Model S drive event")
    StreetInsider.com - Jefferies Adjusts Estimates on Tesla Motors (TSLA); Suggests Buying on Weakness

    (Emphasis mine)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Also - Jefferies comment.... note the add of expected slower rate of production "following p... a recent drive event...."

    Analyst, Jesse Pichel, said, "We lower our 3Q estimates ahead of the Qtr to account for a slower ramp of production following our plant tour & discussions with TSLA mgmt at the recent Model S drive event. We expect 2Q12 to be in line with guidance of roughly flat revenue with 1Q12; however, we expect the Street will need to lower 3Q12 estimates. We believe that any weakness tied to a 3Q12 earnings expectation reset should be viewed as a buying opportunity."


    Not that anyone has asked my opinion (but as a financial analyst and fund manager for three decades), TSLA still seems speculative given financials, stage of development, and variability of key drivers not within the company's control (e.g. price of gasoline). That doesn't mean it's not an interesting speculation (and to be clear, I'm neither recommending purchase or sale of any security here, TSLA included). As a reservation holder, I certainly hope they succeed and I greatly admire Elon Musk and team's achievements. But there's a big difference between a company that has been generating large free cash flows for years and a developing technology company. It's a little amusing to see MSFT discussions in the same breath - when MSFT went public, the company was already highly profitable. As was Google. Different animal here -at least for now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your guess is as good as mine. My little finger is telling me it will not do the same as yesterday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pre-market: 31.50 -1.85 (-5.55%)

    Bargain hunters... we will see good volume this morning. Wild moves are becoming our new reality.

    edit: Pre-market: 31.00 -2.35 (-7.05%) ouch...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a feeling bargains won't be there for very long....

    Edit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gqT6En2O78 (some music to calm the mood)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure what that means. I thought Muppets are the stock market experts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds as if production is not going to ramp up as planned. Expect Iamthecauliflower to be angry.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think his head is about to implode...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got it wrong. I should have stuck with my gut on the rumors that were flying around about delays. You know how I always say that the numbers I throw out are only good in a news vacuum? Well, all bets are off now. Need to do some work to figure our where this blood letting will stop.

    I did say the other day that "the market always gives you another chance". If you somehow missed out on the fire sale we had before the launch, and you are about to get your second chance.

    :-(

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    BTW, I can't read much of that except the mere fact of a downgrade... the article is behind a subscription wall.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Not everyone is jumping on the bandwagon, however." ... "a considerable rise in new reservations since deliveries began amidst rave reviews mid-June 2012"
    StreetInsider.com - Analyst Defends Tesla (TSLA), Says Checks Show 'Considerable Rise' in Model S Reservations

    Rumors... where might they come from? ;)

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whew, was able to get out of that one. Apparently my broker deals in the pre-market, so I bought shares at $31, but was able to sell them again at $31.20 and now put i a "spread" of buy orders below $30 (following Citizen-T's advice to do the buying and selling in smaller steps). Maybe the rumor actually originated here at TMC? In that case we are market manipulators! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Interesting that the pre-market numbers have stopped falling at the 200-day. I assumed that this was going to break through the support that we have there, but maybe not? Hard to base anything off of pre-market numbers since the volume is so low.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This whole thing, yesterday and today, smells like market manipulation.

    It's working but I don't think this will go on very long. There is no news, no warning from Tesla, last I checked the word was everything is on schedule and on budget. And that was less then a month ago. I doubt things changed so dramatically.

    So far, Tesla's execution is perfect. Just like SpaceX. (I you forget about the Roadster execution) They know what they are doing and I'm sure they don't leave anything unplanned. They are engineers, numbers and facts, project management and planning is what they do. And they do it perfectly.

    How difficult is rocket science? As Elon said, you have to write your code and run it in the live environment without even testing it first and do so with not a single bug.

    I did software all my life and this is just a very scary tought. They did it.

    Now, how hard is it to build a car compare to a rocket? My guess is: child play.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Instead of starting good rumors, I'd settle for good facts :). If it's going to fall, let 'er rip! I hope Tesla holds off on the supercharger and other announcements til the market steadies & then hit with all the good announcements.

    In the meantime, I'm all buckled in and ready for the ride.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We have confirmation from more than one independent source now. I think it is very likely that delays are happening. I don't know why, but I believe the reports for now, unless some sig holders can speak up and tell me it's not true.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Old on to your hat too, the ride is just starting and some are already sea-sick ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Rocket science is hard. Manufacturing is also hard. They are hard in VERY DIFFERENT ways.

    The only hurdle I see for Tesla is production, and most importantly quality control during production. Manufacturing is hard in general. Manufacturing high quality complex assemblies is much harder. Doing all of this and not losing money is even harder. I have every confidence that Tesla will be able to do this, but I don't think it will be as easy as everyone here thinks. I think they will deliver plenty of cars, and will deliver high quality cars. I just think their margins will be crap for the first few thousand cars. Before they get their production down, and eliminate costs and defects/rework.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I must say, I am impressed, we are skidding across the bottom, but the trend is intact. Cross your fingers, if we can hold it near or above $31.15, I think we'll come out of this without too much more pain. There must be a lot of people out there that still have cash in their pockets.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think that was an example. It seems we have some delay but it doesn't mean much. Just a minor dip. Trading is going up again, above 31.50 now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was not saying manufacturing cars is easy. I was saying it's child play compare to manufacture space ships.

    How many good exec can you hire with good space ship building experience? Where do you find the receipe to build one? How many trial do you get? How about doing a beta version? No. I has to work flawlessy the first time or it blows up.

    On the other end, they are testing these cars for a long time now. If both companies follow the same project management methods, I don't see why the S would not be perfect.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So maybe everyone was selling this news yesterday. The sellers seem exhausted already.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Only fools are selling. This downgrade was done by someone who wants to pick-up some more shares at bargain price before it's too late. Remember what's coming in a week or two? Shorts do see it too. Smart ones are probably the ones manipulating this market, they want to cover but reduce losses.

    It has started.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not that fast...

    $33.38 now ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't want to jinx it, but I think we are ok...

    Looks like we paid the price for this news yesterday, and only those that were caught off-guard were selling today. Buyers came flooding in at the 200-day as I would have expected before the news broke. I think we are back on course for the top end of that purple band.

    Color me cautiously optimistic. Glad I didn't panic and do anything stupid this morning.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I said yesterday people were crazy, but apparently enough people knew the announcement was coming to drive the stock down before the word got out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. I think you are right.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lots of retail investors (idiots) did what they do best this morning. Sell low, buy high.

    Fun to watch.

    The downgrade was engineered with just that in mind.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, here's a longer term thing I'm not worried about. Tesla is reducing shipments in Q3 to 500. That means they need to ship 4500 cars in Q4 to hit 5k for the year. That's basically flipping the switch on 10/1 to full speed 20k/year production after creeping along the previous 3 months. I'm not optimistic that can happen and it has much higher risk of missing the target if there's any further hiccup than the previous gradual ramp up did.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How did your trade go? ;)

    My guess is they used this: Get Amped Tour: News from the Road | Blog | Tesla Motors

    Lots of shorts are using it to say they still have problems and they won't make it. BS. That's all it is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow! Is this a Cobol program? ;)

    [Original poster asked me to delete it - mod.]
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Welcome to the investor thread. I still owe you a spreadsheet with reservation tallies don't I? Didn't forget.
    �
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