Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 16

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One more you may find interesting. This is Tesla stock overlayed with gasoline future prices. Because the company is pre-earnings, traders like to have a reason for it to go up or down on a given day. Historically that reason has been gasoline prices. I believe as the story continues to play out the correlation to gasoline will minimize (or reset). Just food for thought.

    tesla v gas.png
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Outside of the 1/2012-5/2012 period, I don't see much correlation.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can make charts say a lots of things, imagination has no limits. Technical analysis has it's limit.

    On a volatile stock like TSLA and with all the manipulation going on, it will burn you one day or the other. We saw that yesterday and this morning. Lots of day traders wannabe got burn pretty badly.

    When we are winning, we thing we are geniuses, then the humbling moment...

    The best plan is to still look at technicals and fundamentals but to hold. The company is succeeding, every clues point in that direction. It is also much less stressful.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wait. Whaaat??? ... you were *cough humbled cough cough*??

    Be right back. Need to make sure the rest of my world hasn't gone crazy on me.

    :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, and I don't know. You probably didn't get burned if you were a technical trader that sold around 35.80 because we were at the top of the range and the bought at the 200-day because you knew that's where the support was. And if you believed in the technicals enough to short it on the way down too...

    Make no mistake, a lot if money was made these past two days.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, lots of money was made in the last two days but an equivalent amount of money was lost, don't forget that.

    What if, after you sold, the stock jumped to $45 and hold? That would have been a terrible trade would it? It could of happend, all technicals were there. But then, came the external factor, in this case, the manipulation.

    Bonnie, I've had a lot of humbling moments in my life, I still do mistakes, but it's because I try things. But rarely do the same mistake twice (but it did happen)

    The one thing I learned is to doubt everything and everyone, make sure to constantly requestion my beliefs. But when I'm sure of something, usually I'm a bit vocal about it ;)
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    guest
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    Good for you ;)

    Edit: but you also lost about $2/share at this time....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, and I "lost" over 10k by not selling all my shares two days ago when price was 36.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It should be back to ~$36 this afternoon, so you're good.

    Oh, wait... you sold it all...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No. The technicals were not there to support that kind of action. It could have happened, but the odds were against it. If it had, it wouldn't have been a bad trade. Nobody ever got hurt taking a profit, you get hurt when you get greedy.

    In other news: more confirmation of delays, though the reasoning behind this one makes me think it is not a "problem" as much as it is just taking longer than expected to spin up at the appropriate quality.

    Latest date
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We had a possible gap fill going on, yes the technicals were and are still there IMHO.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. Yes, you are.

    :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So much for the delay rumor...
    I got my Pre-delivery Purchase Agreement this morning.

    I'm one of the last Signatures and my number is in the 1100's.
    All along they suggested October delivery and that is what my paperwork said this morning.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is very good news. There is no doubt that there has been a delay, I wonder if this means that, while they are slow getting the first cars out, they still intend to ramp up fast enough to get back on track by Oct.?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This hasn't changed anything as far as the delay. R113 was put in November, so that puts late sigs in Oct.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    At the test drive event I went to there was chatter about some minor tweaks in amenities that they were considering.

    Some of this was mentioned in the Get Amped Test Drive blog written by George Blankenship at the Tesla Motors site.

    Apparently those changes won't effect my October delivery date. :biggrin:

    Get Amped Tour: News from the Road | Blog | Tesla Motors
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From an investor perspective, I welcome news of delays. It's cause for uncertainty and downward movement in share price. I've been buying on the dips since the IPO and am Long.

    Watching SpaceX delays and eventual flawless execution of the recent mission leads me to assume Tesla is following the same strategy. No one remembers the delays but everyone remembers a disaster. Shipping hundreds or thousands of cars with problems is akin to a SpaceX mission failure. I trust Tesla to deliver a good product and not rush to deliver cars they are not happy with. The market doesn't really comprehend this and hence we benefit from the opportunity to buy at discount. That's my take on this on recent news.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's the gap fill action I was talking about: ChartIQ – stock chart technical analysis for the iPad

    Now we have a second gap which formed yesterday morning. + now, volume went to a stand-still.

    My technicals now say, we will breakout soon with a runaway gap. Hopefuly the 4/4 gap.

    I ain't selling but it's so much fun :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No sold only the same shares I bought in pre-market. So yes, I chickened out this time, but really no harm done. "Missed money beats lost money". To think otherwise would be like Cauliflower (who is out spending drinks on friends with money from rises in the stock price but without actually selling).


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Making another run at the 200-day. What a session! It's like watching a good football game or something. :biggrin:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You people are horrible. I won't say more, since I don't make assumptions about anyone on this board. You folks know nothing about me, or whats going on in my life, so please don't attempt to enter into it. I am angry for reasons that go far beyond Tesla. So please cease making assumptions about me. Just because I only post on this forum about the stock, doesn't mean that's all I read. GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!!!

    The way the media is talking about Tesla is a freaking disgrace, and the way the stock is moving is beyond wrong. I am already in a really freaking bad mood. This stock moving this irrationally is beyond pissing me off. Rather then trying to make me more pissed off, could anyone shed some light on this insane movement. To answer your comment before you make it, I will not sell!!!! Either say something constructive, or please don't say anything. Why the frack are so many things wrong about the way this company is being talked about!!!!!!!!! WHY THE FRACK IS THIS STOCK SO UNDERLOVED BY INVESTORS!!!

    Do shorts know something I don't? Anyone have anything worth while to say about what we are seeing today?

    I refuse to respond to any questions, comments, or insinuations about me, so don't even bother.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You just have to realize that there are a lot of people trading this stock who have never heard of Elon Musk and have no idea what a Sig is. They are just trading it on the headlines and technicals because it is volatile so you can squeeze a lot of profits out of it by trading it. If you want to talk about fundamentals, things like the points you often make, then you need to look at a yearly chart of TSLA. At that scale all the day-to-day noise fades out, and you can see that the market does in-fact respect what they are doing.

    If you aren't going to sell, why are you paying such close attention to the stock price? Save yourself the stress and just check on it a couple times a month.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    1. Calling people horrible is a bad opening. Online or otherwise.
    2. If you expect the media to change their stripes, you'll be disappointed. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
    3. TSLA stock is not unusual in its market behavior. In fact, it's fairly controlled for a new, tech company. If it swung down to $15/share or up to $70/share then you might have a point.
    4. If you can't handle the current reasonable swings, you shouldn't be involved in stock gambling like you are. This got old 20 posts ago.
    5. I can't shed light on why something is "insane" when I don't agree with the premise that it's "insane". So I can't help you here.
    6. If you're not selling now, then there's no reason to watch it. If you're not selling ever, then the price of the stock -- at any point -- is irrelevant.
    7. "Either say something constructive, or please don't say anything." Agreed. Can you follow the same policy with your posts? Including not posting at all if the entire content isn't constructive?
    8. Tip: The more sequential exclamation points you use, the more likely at least some of your audience (usually including me) will not even read your post.
    9. When I read posts like yours, it reminds me that I should probably acquire some Tesla stock so that I can sell covered calls against it to feed off the volatility that, in part, reactions like yours enhance.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    Wunderlich just recently jumped on the bandwagon anyway. They were one of the bears for a long time until their first visit to the factory in like the April-ish timeframe.
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    guest

    Lets keep it all in perspective. TSLA has tons of potential, but how many other companies are valued at 3.5 billion after pumping out just 2100+ Roadsters and promises of a second and third generation model? IMO, TSLA is incredibly overvalued, but I still think it's potential is so large that I'm willing to buy in and see what Elon and the gang can do.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I watch it daily because I am bored at the moment. Simple. Also, because this is the most frightening time of Teslas existence. I would like to believe that Elon knows what he is doing, and that he is able to do something that no other company has done before. I want to take his words at face value. However, the short interest, combined with the medias perception of Tesla scares the hell out of me. Now is when they are supposed to be building their cars, however, some are still questioning if they can do it. I know nothing (Zero) about the automobile manufacturing process. Also, I still don't have an explanation about why only Elon can do what he is doing. My gut tells me they can get 40k reservations annually, with ease. My stomach is also telling me that I should be questioning his ability to ramp up production. I don't know what to think.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm going to go get the screen cleaner and see if I can wipe most of this mess off my screen. Anyone want to borrow it when I'm done?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're not funny.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I told you his head would explode. Did I?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cali, may I suggest a different tack? Instead of dwelling on how TSLA is faring on a day-to-day basis, can you try going into a Tesla Store (if there's one near you) and taking in the experience there? Talk to the Tesla employees there, look at the interactive displays and heck, if there's a Model S beta on display, check it out as well?!

    For that matter, if a Get Amped tour stop is on the horizon near where you live, try getting a guest invite from one of the reservation holders (post on the appropriate thread here: EVents).

    My point is that you'll come to love the company for what it's really about and what the fine employees there do (and no, the company's definitely not about its stock alone).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not that it will do any good, but lighten up, Cali.

    Everyone here who holds TSLA lost some money today. And I guarantee that some of them also had a bad day and really didn't need the loss. You're not unique. And the drama is just too much.

    How 'bout you just be part of the conversation? We'd all like that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been to 5 different Tesla stores, and 2 service centers. Great places with great employees. I have sat in a Roadster but have not gone for a ride. The employees in the stores are very ambitious, though even they seem a bit nervous about the long term ambitions of Tesla (Mass Market Car) , and in some cases I got the feeling they tried to down play comments made by Elon. I do love the company, and it's goals, however, I am young, and don't know squat about engineering. When analysts say it can't be done, and when MS says they can only produce 2k cars this year, I don't know what to think. I honestly don't know how to respond to claims that Elon is a delusional individual, with a great mind, who is getting ahead of himself. The Success of Space X and Solar City are the only things I have to go on.

    One thing I noticed that I find interesting is the fact that the Model S is not being pushed in Europe yet. They were more then happy to help with placing a reservation, but didn't even mention the Model S until I asked about it. There was no material displayed about it anywhere in the stores. In short, if they can get 60 per day in the US alone, I see no reason they can't do 120 a day accounting for Europe. Add Asia to the equation, and 150-160 per day? 160 (365) = 58400

    58400 (65000) (.25) = 949 mil +200mil from power trains + 300mil from EV Credits = 1bil 449 million (20) = 28 980 000 000

    (I think I am low balling the money from EV credits and powertrains)

    This math is why I am holding my position. Also, the forward PE using analysts estimates is 40ish. 1bil 449 million (PE 40) = 57 960 000 000

    This math is excluding OPEX, but for this purpose that's not important. This combined with my desire to invest in American innovation, is why I own the stock. Elon being behind the helm is the icing on the cake.


    I hope to stop by the one in New York to see the Model S. I don't think I could get a test drive, or a ride along, for a few reasons.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From the Wunderlich report: "O�Neill reports that the Q3 consensus is for $130 million in revenue (based on 1000 deliveries) and a GAAP loss of 67 cents a share. He�s now looking for $86 million in revenue (based on 500 deliveries) and a loss of 75 cents a share."

    Compare his new model to Morgan Stanley's May 9 research note which predicts a Q3 loss of 73 cents a share on revenues of $136 million (based on 980 deliveries).

    Q3 ends September. If the actual Model S Q3 deliveries look to be closer to 500 than 1000, might we see a downgrade from Morgan Stanley as well?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure going to a store is going to make any difference. Do your own research then decide if you have faith or you don't. If you don't, that's no big deal. If you do choose to have faith, then please do not flip out here on the boards on every downward tick (nevermind the fact we're back to where we were a few days ago anyway). The rants are not productive and they are beginning to annoy some of those who choose to post here and have constructive discussions regarding the stock. Please keep that in mind going forward.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Umm...I thought you were angry?

    Indeed it is and will be until the end of the year.

    I believe you can take him at face value and at his word. I believe he's done enough already in his life to warrant it. Indeed, it would be foolish if someone to just fluff him off at this point.

    Then get out. It's that simple. Get out, get out, get out, get out. If you can't keep things in perspective, which I believe is partly due to your limited supply of life experience, then get out. Somebody's right and somebody's wrong. If you don't have the faith and conviction that you're right, get out.

    Well, I happen to know a lot about automobile manufacturing and yep, there's still some questions if Tesla can pull this off. But we've only got about another six months for the answer.

    Because he possesses traits and characteristics that few people possess and what he's doing is just one step below starting a private rocketship company and sending cargo to the ISS. When you're older, you might understand that.

    Indecision is a killer, isn't it? Get out.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What you should be thinking is that you have no business investing in the stock market if this is how you are thinking. Sorry to be a tad harsh, but controlling your emotions is the first lesson you learn in investing. I've long said that the stock market has the most expensive tuition of any graduate course in the world, because every mistake is expensive. Before you can know investing, you have to know yourself. As your posts indicate you have little idea whether you are coming or going, so I strongly advise you think carefully why you own the security and what you expect. Do a little Ben Franklin exercise by dividing a piece of paper in half and listing pros on one side and cons on the other and see which list is longer and by how much. And don't forget to make sure that you have some numeracy to your bullet points. If the pros don't far outweigh the cons, perhaps you might rethink your assumptions....

    Hope that helps (in a good way...)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We will likely open tomorrow above the same point we did last Thursday.

    If you can't handle the volatility, move to a weekly time frame. I traded options for a living in college. This volatility is nothing.

    As long as you didnt buy last week, what is there to worry about?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's been a few months since Danial posted this, so I just thought I'd put it up as a reminder. It's a good point.

    Personally I am bullish on TSLA, and I don't intend on selling until it hits at least $80.00. Whether or not it hits $80.00 is a matter of how well Tesla does as a company, not how well TSLA (the stock) does on a day-to-day basis. I wouldn't feel sick to my stomach at all if TSLA lost 20% tomorrow on no news. Losing 20% tomorrow wouldn't cost me any money, wouldn't affect the quality of Tesla's vehicles and wouldn't affect the price of the stock 4 years from now, which is around when I'll probably sell (to buy my Gen III vehicle).

    Just thought I'd try to put this in perspective.


    Edit: And by "this" I mean that fact that the stock dropped from 35.96 to 32.15 in the last two days. There, now my post can have historical context :)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    @ Charged Up I expect it to either drop significantly, if it turns out Tesla cant be an OEM, or or to go to $300. My Sell order is at $300. I half expect $600 if they have no problems over the next 6 months. I will not sell, especially not after speaking so highly about Tesla to so many people.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would think the most frightening time in Tesla's existence would be the multiple times Elon used his own funds to keep Tesla alive during the early Roadster days. If this is a long term stock for you, these swings don't matter at all. Only what the stock is X years into the future when you decide to sell.


    Wow. $600 by next year might be a little high. Again, if you're not going to sell not matter what, then sit back and enjoy the ride. If you're right, you'll have made a lot of money. No sense in stressing out about it if selling is not an option.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Me. Thanks for wading in.

    Chill everyone. I've had enough of the childish behavior on both sides. I will not tolerate any further personal attacks in this thread. You have been warned.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't expect $600 by next year, although I don't see how Tesla can be less then $100 ($150?) by December of 2013, By December 2014 $300, and by 2015 $600 if they succeed in all categories. The current price wont make sense.

    In 2015 they expect to sell 100k of the gen 3. Assuming 35k Model S (65K?) and 35k Model X (65K?)
    and 100k Gen 3 (35K?) we get revenue of 8,050,000,000. (.25 Margins) = 2,012,500,000 +(300mil?) from power trains +(300mil?) from the sale of EV Credits - OPEX of (400mil?) = 1 612 500 000 profit (20 "Half of the Current forward PE") = 32 250 000 000 (40 "Current Forward PE) = 64 500 000 000

    By the end of 2015, Tesla should be worth between 32 250 000 000 (9.83231707 x the current price or $316.108994) and 64,500 000,000 (19.6646341 x the current price or $632.217986 ), assuming all goes as planned.

    Anyone wish to comment on these figures?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hurray historical context! Seriously, thanks to all who have been posting. When I mentioned adding context to posts a week ago, I didn't expect a ton of people to notice my post, but everything has been much easier to follow since then. Please keep it up!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was a good point. I often think about it after posting and go back and edit to give more context.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The operative statement is "if they succeed in all categories". Currently it is somewhat difficult to value a company when it has no earnings and there remains a large amount of uncertainty as to whether they will deliver upon their promises. In some cases, the folks at Tesla are not "masters of their own domain" and alot of their success or failure will depend upon the actions of others. Alot of companies that had great ideas and great people did not survive because the market, whether for logical reasons or not, chose to not support their business plans.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, we all changed our writing styles for you.

    Happy now?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At $300, TSLA would have a market cap the same as GM with just a tiny, tiny fraction of GM's sales.

    So, no, that's not going to happen.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Is Facebook having a larger cap then GM problematic?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Hmm... Got to keep that multiple in mind. Investors pay for growth, not sales. If Tesla is able to grow from selling 500 cars a year to selling 200,000 cars a year within 5 years, and I think you'll be surprised what investors will be willing to pay for that kind of growth.

    Maybe not $300, but I wouldn't write it off completely.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And of course, we haven't really lost (or made) anything until we actually sell. I've made over $9k this week and then lost close to $8k. Still up over my cost basis though. And I'll never sell even part of the stock at less then $10/share profit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The only other factor that comes to mind is that the factory has maximum capacity of 500k cars. After 2015, with 70k Model S and X and 100k Gen 3, they can still grow for another 3 years at <30% YOY for the next 5-10 years, and not have to splurge for a new factory, keeping OPEX at similar levels. I'd guess OPEX would grow to the 600mil area by 2015. However, Elon has also stated that he wouldn't be surprised if they realize greater than 25% Margins. Given the dispersion of reservations, I would be very surprised if they peaked by 2015. Even if the "50% of new cars sold by 2020 will be electric" doesn't come true, it won't matter, since 200k cars will be no-where near 1% of total automotive sales.

    Just for fun. This is Math that shows a real case for a 2016 stock price of $500-1000. : 70k (65K) +100k (35k) (.30) = 2415000000 + 300mil from EV Credits and 300mil from PowerTrains = 3015000000 - 500mil OPEX= 2,515,000,000 (PE20) = 50,300,000,000 , (PE40) = 100,600,000,000 = 15.3353659- 30.6707317x the current price or 493.032014 - 986.064024.

    Regarding comparisons to GM. How many types of cars does GM make? What is the average price of their cars? How much do they make on their cars? What is their OPEX?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am focusing on the 2012-13 time frame and can see the stock at $57 to $65 in that time period. The sell call today @ $28 is also very possible in the next 2 weeks (buying opportunity :crying:)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
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    In one of his latest SA comments, Petersen is still claiming a capital raise is absolutely necessary:

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In order for him to be anywhere near correct, Tesla would have to be showing Q2 losses of >$150 million. Even with all the capital investments in Q1 the net loss was <$90m. The big capital investments were basically all done by Q1 and the big cost growth areas would be in wages etc.....unlikely to add up to $60m additional costs.

    Note that converting cash into inventory (buying parts ahead of production) doesn't affect working capital calculations. Even if they were running short of working capital Tesla still had (as of March) $104m of the DOE loan available to draw down; they could call that in as cash and it would be added to long term debt outside of working capital calculations.

    JP is wrong.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is that metric based upon the prior production rate before the facility was shut down and sold for pennies on the dollar?

    Other than the square footage and basic infrastructure, I doubt the Tesla purchase included much of the expensive manufacturing equipment needed to produce automobiles, and even if it did, how much of it would be relevant for an EV vs ICE platform?

    Some of the equipment that Tesla is using to produce the Model S was picked up at fire-sale discount prices in other regions of the US and shipped to the factory. Is such a discount likely to be available to acquire the additional manufacturing equipment needed to increase the production rate past a few hundred cars a day?

    The expense that got Tesla to the current theoretical Model S max production rate is likely far cheaper than what it would cost to dramatically increase that capacity to the theoretical maximum of 500k cars annually at the old NUMMI facility.

    So, don't expect to ramp up to that theoretical and magical max of 500k cars produced per year without a serious capital investment from Tesla; it certainly isn't a freebie to just throw into equations without consideration on how one goes from 20k per year to 500k per year.

    I currently do not hold any position of TSLA, long or short, so I don't have a pony in this race per se. If I did, it would be a long-term position and I'd take off my reading glasses and ignore the minor fluctuations when reading the TSLA ticker. :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. There would certain be a good bit of cost to tool the factory and add workers.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What: Tesla Motors, Inc. Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call
    When: July 25, 2012
    Time: 2:30pm Pacific Daylight Time / 5:30pm Eastern Daylight Time
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Head of manufacturing, Mr Passin said they can go as much as 100k cars/year without stretching the current setup.

    Please use facts, not guesses. (look whos talking!)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is early! And just before first real deliveries... It promises to be very entertaining :)

    And that day, we should also get short numbers for 7/15.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What do you mean by first real deliveries? You mean the next 10 founders deliveries will be announced?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, SSL reservation holder #4 got a delivery date for week of 7/29. I don't know how many others will get their car that week but it will be at least four.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ahem. Please use facts, not guesses. All delivery dates are tentative at best.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is the fact: Latest date

    See Larry Chanin's post.

    I'don't know for sure if it's true, I don't know any of these people, but it's seems credible enough to take it as a fact unless anyone says otherwise and so far, no one said it's wasn't true.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Facts are things that are provably true. I'll grant you as fact that we have rumor and speculation of deliveries that week, that's it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fact is, our conversation may not even exist, you or me are possibly in a secondary state, a different dimension.

    Do I even exist? Are you sure? I'm not.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're stepping dangerously close to the steph/existence zone
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Everyone is of course free to believe what ever they wish, but in general I tend to believe fellow forum members when they are quoting Tesla communications.


    So in this case I believe that back on July 6th Tesla quoted delivery the week of July 29 through August 4 for Special Signature reservation #4. Now that almost two weeks have passed, it remains to be seen whether that delivery estimate will still hold up.

    What I take away from this is we can be fairly sure that non-Foundation Series Signatures won't be delivered any sooner than the above date range.

    Larry
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At least the Q&A session (if not the letter) coming Wednesday (so before the week of July 29th) is likely to give us information about deliveries etc.

    So just 6 days until we know much more... I'm wondering whether they pulled the date for Q2 results ahead, so they can prevent false rumors and premature conclusions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was wondering the same thing as it was tentatively scheduled for the 29th and then the 30th according to Yahoo Finance (not sure how they arrive at that date; maybe it's a total guess).

    Non-founder deliveries will always speak louder than words as it will prove the dream through Elon's eyes. And the coffers will start to fill.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not something you hear every day: An old word like "coffers" attributed to an electric car company.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In reading through some of his comments (they're in a few threads, but you can catch them all via: http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-petersen/comments it appears he thinks that the capital investments are not included in the about $70M losses Tesla reported, because they're taken as long term depreciation:

    So, JP's saying there's $68m income losses and another $70m (all approximate) in capital expenses. That gets close to your $150million/quarter figure.

    BTW, NigelM, I'm not challenging you at all. Given what JP says about other matters, I wouldn't be surprised to see him twisting numbers and lying. I wonder how it's going to go for him when he's proven wrong in a few weeks?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I haven't looked at this for some time, and don't know how to read those financial statements properly, but IIRC the "Property, plant and equipment purchases" have been part of the R&D costs in recent statements, and will move into other categories with start of production.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And Tesla directly addressed this in its Q3 2011 Shareholder letter:
    Hence, it looks like Petersen was counting the capital expense as an addition to the operating expense when, in fact, it's already included.

    Accounting makes my brain hurt. Time for a beer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My last comment of the week, got some stuff to do...

    Allright. Manipulation is the word of the week. You can also describe it as gap creation.

    Pre-market action was pretty revealing this morning:
    Untitled.png

    First, a guy sell at ~2% below closing, then a real transaction came in at market value. A little while after that, the sell another bit to bring it back down, it then stayed down.

    That's a little trick to make all stop loss kick-in at open. They did that a few times this week, it will work for a while but at some point market is always right...

    On the technical side, the chart is burning! It's says warning in BIG BOLD letters. We now have four (yes 4!) gaps to fill. The greatest is the one at $40.

    A runaway gap may happen according to my crazy little chart. Hold on to your hats, technicals are never wrong. Right Citizen-T? ;)

    Good weekend to all! Next week will be mind blowing.

    (Runaway gap: Gaps and Gap Analysis - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As I said a few pages back, all they can do is tell you the probability that something will happen relative to the other option. They do seem to say we are going higher, but looks like the stock wants to test buyers again here at these levels first.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems that sentences like "Thus, a substantial portion of our R&D expenses are one-time investments in preparation for Model S production" (in the Q1 shareholder letter) don't refer to those larger purchases of equipment ? We don't seem to know yet whether separate purchases of equipment will continue in Q2 in the same amount, even if they had similar amounts in previous quarters. At least there don't seem to be any new "Property, plant" purchases. And I'd expect equipment purchases to drastically reduce at the latest during Q3. (Unless perhaps Tesla decides to increase capacity further.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In the Q1 conference call, May 9th, Elon actually said that all of the factory machinery was already in place, and the vast majority of tooling was in place (some stamping dies were still expected for June). (Which I guess doesn't necessarily mean that it was all paid for in Q1.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is correct. Tool buyoffs don't occur until tools have been approved by the customer and are ready to be shipped to the customer. So, if more were coming in Q2, there would be expense associated with their purchase in that quarter...unless they have 30/60/90 days to pay for them, in which case the expense might not show up until Q3.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There doesn't seem to be any information that those amounts are even close to large enough to worry about. And it would still mean that R&D costs will go down as well, even though a part of them will continue as cost-of-revenue. And according to the Q1 shareholder letter, Tesla concluded Q1 "with $387 million in cash resources". So where would be the problem, if any? The original plan was to start delivery in July (and everyone was expecting that to potentially mean the end of July), and a slow ramp-up was always predicted by Tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You'd probably be looking in the neighbourhood of 100k per tool on average.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well...this doesn't look good. Europe is trying it's best to pull us down below support. We need to hold at around $31.20 or we are going to be seeing that $28 number pretty soon. =/
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They did it again.

    Welcome to gap town.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Action seems to suggest we are going to hold. There is a TON of support here. Buyers seem to like this price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would think that Wed's quarterly report is going to be the driver for the stock this week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ya think ? ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry for the late reply, I've been away and out of touch (on boats, not in prison! :smile:). In fairness, I should have taken more time and separate out capital investments from factory prep expenses and start-up costs and others that are being expensed as R&D. I was being a little too fast trying to make the point that JP's calculations don't add up - they don't by the way! Once he admits that the capEx doesn't impact working capital how come he still thinks that Tesla will run out of liquidity in such a short space of time?

    IMO Q2 costs could not have been dangerously higher than Q1 and my worst case estimate is $110m Q2 net income loss versus $90m in Q1; given Tesla's available resources, I don't consider that a problem.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just going to say the obvious: If they were crunched for money, they would have rushed out cars that were less-than perfect. The fact that they are so complacent about holding back deliveries while they tweak things tells me that they are very confident in their cash position.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm no expert, but my thoughts are that if a new car company (in general) wasn't releasing a new car it could mean one of two things. Either they're very confident in their car and want everything to be right... or they screwed something up so bad, that they're hiding it for as long as possible. Obviously in the case of Tesla we know it's the former, but not all investors are believers like us. Once production ramps up and customers and magazines get ahold of the car for a longer amount of time, I think we'll see the stock go up.

    Then again, plenty of my other predictions have failed, like these:

    "After they show off the Model S Prototype at the NAIAS, the stock will go up" - Happened January 11th, 2011. Stock went way down.
    "After they show off the Model S Betas and the Tesla factory, the stock will go up" - Happened on Oct. 1st, 2011. Stock went down.
    "Once they announce the firm delivery date of the Model S, the stock will go up" - Happened on May 22nd, 2012. Stock didn't appear to be affected.
    "Once they deliver the first car, the stock will go up" - Announced this on June 6th, 2012. Stock went down.
    "Once they deliver the first batch of cars, the stock will go up" - Happened on June 22nd, 2012. Stock went down.
    "Once they allow test drives by both the reservation holders and the media, the stock will go up" - Happened on June 23rd, 2012. Stock went down.

    So apparently I suck at predicting the short-term market. Good thing I'm in this for the long haul.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 citizen t there are many examples of companies pushing out products before they are ready because the
    company is short on cash... glad that isnot the case here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA, QTWW, ZBB: Tesla�s Downgrade blurs Outlook for Quantum and ZBB

    Factually? :confused: Just because Wunderlich Securities said so? How about Tesla?

    Larry
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The applicable cliche phrase is "Buy the rumor, sell the news."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Norbert found this article which I cross-posted here also: Elon Musk Talks: 'Several More Years' at the Helm | PluginCars.com

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't know if anyone else cares, but the recent drop in TSLA's price has created some very interesting Put option possibilities:

    Aug $28 Puts today were sold for $1.25 each. That means on Aug 18th you buy TSLA for $26.75, or you keep the $1.25 for an effective annualized return of 65%. The Sept $29 Puts sold for $2.43 each, which net you stock at $26.57 or the premium was earned at a 51% rate of return. If you really don't want to buy the stock unless it's at a firesale, the Sept $25 Puts at around $1.20 will make you about 4.8% in 60 days or you buy the stock at $23.80.

    That these OTM options are paying so well tells me that there are some nervous investors out there wanting to protect themselves from a precipitous near term drop in the stock. If you're able to make these trades and believe that $27 or $24 is a good buy in price for the stock, trades like these are worth looking at.

    For longer term trades, although volume is low, Jan 2014 options are out now and you might be able to get into a synthetic long at $30 for a net credit, or at $28 for a small debit. If you believe Tesla will stay above $20 during the next 18 months, it's a way to leverage yourself into Tesla's success 18 months from now without the expense of having to buy the stock outright today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Write off the ups and downs as volatility and we seem to be stuck around 30-31 for the last 6 months regardless of what's going on with Tesla or the world.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If they are crunched for money, they are a lot more likely to go shopping for more cash from Musk or somewhere than to rush the cars. I think they are probably pretty confident about quality of the cars too, but that probably doesn't relate to their cash.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Smorgas+Nigel, I think John is probably overall right about the EV market in general, but with regard to his TSLA numbers he is off. Even if the expenditures are amortized, they will be amortized over their expected useful life, which in this case is basically going to be as long as they are making the cars. Although I think he is correct in suggesting there could be a liquidity probably, but only because of ebbs in demand.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also, did he take into account the accelerated reservations we've seen over the past month? I'm not sure where that money goes on the balance sheet but it is cash that they can use, and if our reservation tally is to be believed, there's a lot if it.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Where are we at right now with the reservations? I've been wondering how much they've accelerated since the deliveries started.

    I wonder how the Model X is doing too. I'm not a big fan of the Model X. The Falcon doors are a little too over the top for me. I hope it's doing well but I wouldn't line up to buy one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The TMC tally shows:

    US P#10,636
    EU P#1,088
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm, wonder where the 14,000 number in this article is coming from...

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    See Robert.Boston's post above and add 1000 us Sigs, 200 Canadian, 500 European and also the SSL list and founder's cars. That's near 14k cars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    14,000 is an impressive number, but we're already 3 weeks into Q3 so it's probably not going to be the number they will use tomorrow on the earnings call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, they will be (and should be) conservative as there will likely also be some people dropping out along the way and they don't want to be accused of overreporting any numbers at this stage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sunshine again today, my country is becoming Florida, we use to be in a cold place...

    Now, we will have sunshine in TSLA today! People should be coming in in the next two sessions in anticipation of the earning call and first real deliveries.

    Should be a fun rest of the week!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Reservation deposits on the balance sheet are shown as unrestricted cash on the asset side and as a current liability on the other side; as such it positively affects cash flow but has no impact on working capital calculations. That said, even 500 reservations in the last month x $5k only equals $2.5m (minus credit card fees) so it's pretty small when you look at the big picture.

    P.S. Can we cut the Tapatalk signatures pls?....just my personal bugbear.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    True, but some of those reservations were surely $40,000 sig reservations for Canada and the EU. Also, I didn't just mean to count the money from the past month. I just meant that based on the acceleration in reservations, it seems there should be a good bit of cash coming in through the rest of the year from that. More than there was this time last year.

    I'm not sure. There may be a setting that allows you to remove it. I kinda like it though. Let's you know that I am mobile and could use a little bit more leniency on typos.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The odd $40k from Canada/EU here and there isn't going to make any difference. I disagree that there should be more money coming in than this time last year. A year ago, Sigs weren't sold out in the U.S. and every one of those coming in was equal to 8 general production reservations today. It could be either way.

    P.S. don't worry abut your typo's, we all have them and it's usually easy to spot those ipad/iphone auto corrects as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably closer to 13k, or even 12k depending upon how the attrition rate has played out. I'm sure that some reservation holders asked for their money back (for various reasons).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1000
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Pathetic.

    They can pump it down as much as they want, the rebound will just be greater.
    Tesla Production Estimated to SLOW and 4 Fresh Stock Analyses To Note | Wall St. Cheat Sheet
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They might be referring to the MPGe comment regarding "from wall" efficiency, i.e. it's impact on published/official EPA range.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Either Steph is right and they are trying to push the stock price down or they're totally clueless and accepting the production "slow-down" without question.

    Fortunately for us, we know that the only reason for this "slow-down" is to run through the punch-list from the Founders and the test drives before starting up the production run. I can't wait to see what they change on the final production cars.
    �
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