1/1/2015
guest I know we aren't supposed to believe in the Tesla Tuesday... but today... I am really not liking the shareprice action at the end of the day... not really sure why we have taken another nosedive on the price... man this stock feels really volatile... 5$ swings... geeze...�
1/1/2015
guest The negative Tesla Tuesday effect appeared quite real during much of 2013. Perhaps it has resurfaced. However, the TSLA share price movement today is essentially in line with the overall market and the other US automakers.�
1/1/2015
guest Nah, you are right, that's it... it is a down day for the market... I normally click over to those and forgot to do that today. Thanks... I am just voicing sadness to see us drop back into the 270s...�
1/1/2015
guest An incredibly appropriate view to take, since this is the short term movements thread. I know it's not very scientific, but if you remove the change to the NASDAQ (i.e. add 0.86%) to TSLA's drop of 1.29% you get a drop of only 0.43%... hardly worth worrying about.
TSLA hasn't been "this low" for what... 7 calendar days! I think there has been a lot of stability in the price lately, with Elon's comments and the Nevada announcement potentially able to do all sorts to the price. For this stability we should be thankful.
Model X is next.�
1/1/2015
guest Elon Musk was just named #1 Disruptor in this year's Vanity Fair "New Establishment" The New Establishment 2014 | Vanity Fair
Of note, Robert Downey Jr also makes #6 "Powers That Be", so we have Iron Man and Iron Man.�
1/1/2015
guest To be honest, this is what is dominating my thoughts. The last time Elon talked down the stock, he had actual bad news to deliver later. Then the TMC forum consensus was 'well he warned us, and we didn't listen'. Now he talked down the stock again and people are trying to defend him and ignore it. Personally, I am down to a very modest Tesla share position and sold my beloved leaps.�
1/1/2015
guest I believe your wrong but have also taken defensive measures by reducing options but increasing stock holdings. The output increase in the line is a great black box and may provide a big beat�
1/1/2015
guest 7800 deliveries was guidance for Q3,
North America in July deliveries were? #### (cars produced in June & 1st week of July)
North America in August? 0-50? (loaners)
North America in September? ### most deliveries dates keep changing for whatever reason & the hope is the last week of the September, maybe. (between TMC, Facebook groups & the official Tesla forum monitoring)
That leaves international deliveries left to fill the void, is it reasonable to assume most if not all of Augusts production was shipped overseas & currently an insane amount of deliveries are taking place, I guess its possible but since this is a short term focused trading discussion I have moved to neutral to bearish. anyone have any delivery guess's with 2 1/2 weeks left?�
1/1/2015
guest Ive stated it before in other places, but they would have to fall pretty hard to miss guidance. They REALLY sandbagged their numbers for Q3 and it is a good thing they did from the sound of it. I am not worried (yet) that they will meet guidance, but that is not the driving force here of what has me hesitant about Q3... I am more worried because if they do just meet guidance, they are going to shoot deep into the red since they have continued to up their other expenses, but are suggesting a really flat quarter for injecting new cash.
Maybe all those ZEV credits they are holding on to will get sold off to help them out this time? They are sitting on like 200+ credits right now.�
1/1/2015
guest So Elon says the stock value is a little high right now. 6 months ago they did that Capital raise at what like $250-$260? Today's price is only about 15% above that. So how is it overvalued now? The Gigafactory is actually being made now.�
1/1/2015
guest I am not sure if I should invest in tsla before the Q3 earnings... With all the expenses they have incurred, and the factory retooling, I am not sure they will make their guidance.
I sold some options at the high point of yesterdays trading day. Not sure if it is wise to jump back in now. May sit on the sidelines until after Q3 (of course I'll hate myself if they have a great ER).
Perhaps I am overly cautious since the last 2 weeks has had pretty flat trading after all the good news we had.�
1/1/2015
guest Earnings won't matter really, unless deliveries were absolutely abysmal. If they are, this could lower expectations for Q4 and set up again for a ridiculous beat just like history. What matters is forward looking guidance and news of Model X.�
1/1/2015
guest So I have officially dumped out of my calls I was sitting on today, since it will take some crazy miracle at this point to jump back up to 290+ so I am looking to likely do a simple straddle when the November Options are released (maybe just do the Decemeber ones), and this way I take a more neutral position. I am trying to find a range that would work though that would be the least required stock movement (in either direction) in order to flip to positive.
I am still kicking myself for not selling at 290, but I am not complaining at all because a win is a win and I still pulled out a 50% gain (after commission). For my first serious option play it was better than running in the red.
I really feel like the stock is not likely to trade flat for much longer... last time we had a flag form it caused the previous drop off we saw, so I am inclined to believe that unless there is some crazy announcement next week, the stock it going to finally do its pullback.
Don't get me wrong, we could totally get that announcement next week with a Model X to show for, and the stock will break out again and go on a short run. But with the latest short data being as low as it is, we are more likely to finally drop back down. I remember the discussions back in March where we were all sitting there, seeing the exact same signals, and we all thought we were looking at a bull flag and the stock would keep going up... but we had no news like we were expecting on the factory, and it dropped... I really feel like we are in high risk of hitting another dropping period.�
1/1/2015
guest Here is a link to the tweets of someone who appears totally consumed with being anti-TSLA, and repeatedly accuses Elon of pumping the stock. If the tweeter truly believes he is right, then he must think Elon is mighty good at pumping. Therefore one might assume the tweeter would want to become a shareholder: Mark B. Spiegel (markbspiegel) | Twitter�
1/1/2015
guest Remarkably, his first TSLA tweet was on 5/29/2013.
"Self," I asked myself. "I wonder how closely 5/29/2013 correlates to TSLA's initial liftoff?"
"Well, self," I said, "pretty closely."
Total coincidence, I'm sure.�
1/1/2015
guest From the twitter site:
Managing Member of Stanphyl Capital
My opinion: Frankly, if a managing partner of any investment hedge fund is tweeting about stocks that he is in (short or long) then I don't want to be a part of that investment firm.�
1/1/2015
guest That is none other than Logical Thought on Seeking Alpha.�
1/1/2015
guest I don�t quite see where the pessimism of some in here comes from. Did I miss a meeting or isn�t there a single fact that predicts bad results for Q3 ? Also I totally disagree with Elon Musk and others on the stock being overvalued. Clearly the market today has totally missed or underestimated what yesterdays Nevada legislation decisions and governor Sandovals swift signature meant. So that is definitely not priced in. Perhaps it will sink in when the groundbreaking event of the GF will take place. I think we have reason to believe that will do the stock price more good than harm short term...�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah, he seems like a short who lost his shirt and has never gotten over it.... if he would have just changed his mind and shifted everything from short to long... even a MONTH after the initial lift off he would have made so much money...
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Oh yeah, I thought the name sounded familiar... haha!�
1/1/2015
guest The pessimism is coming from the lower deliveries forecast for this quarter and the deliveries that appear to be behind schedule in the deliveries thread. This is a short term issue though. Not to mention we are near ATH and all the other points Chicken made a few post above.�
1/1/2015
guest So the pessimism starts with the flat sales projection vs the continued massive increase in spending. Now, I am not worried about the long term effect this will have on the company or the stock, but it is likely to cause a pause on investors when this ER comes to pass.
Second, historically (I know, I know, past performance is no guarantee of future results, blah, blah, unicorns) the stock has only been able to do around a 3-5 month run before having a serious pullback (note, we are currently in a stagnation not a pullback... I am talking dropping down to 265+) The pullback has lasted around 2 months and then we go back full speed. The one thing different this time around is the shorts that are in the stock. If we drop and the shorts don't pile back in, I am afraid it will be a struggle to get back up again.
Third, there is a chance that deliveries could be a miss. Based on all the delays people have been reporting and other anecdotal evidence, there is a chance. I would say... around 20% chance right now for a delivery miss. This is going to be rough if that happens.
Fourth, Model X reveal isn't likely (I could be wrong... which is something that would totally help float the stock) to happen until mid Nov. Based on "we will have the alpha next week after the factory restart, and then in Q4 we will start the Betas for the Model X" (Paraphrasing). Based on Tesla time, I would be surprised if we actually see this any time sooner... but I am hoping!
Fifth, gigafactory, This has been a thorn in our side for a while. We keep hoping that each news event on this will cause a rise in the stock, and it hasn't happened. At least I haven't perceived it as such. I think this is still a pipe dream to many people and won't be reality until they are actually pushing out cells. So for someone who is long the stock, every time they post an update on the factory this is great news for you, buy more shares because by 2017 I am positive you won't regret it... short term... not so much. This is the third major time something significant has moved regarding the factory and yet again, the market is giving us no love.
All this adds up to a stagnating momentum stock, coming off all time highs, with nothing to push it further and plenty of short term negatives standing in our way that is likely to drive the price down.
I could be wrong, I hope I am wrong (I am actually setting up for a movement in either direction, I just hope that the stock doesn't stay flat... cause that will hurt) I hope for the shareholders sake that the stock continues to go up, but I just don't see it right now.
The good news in all of this, Q4 is totally setting up for a potential blowout. If anyone is looking to buy shares, you might be getting your best chance to buy that you haven't had for a while. regardless of where the stock goes over the next month or so, the story hasn't changed. The future outlook hasn't changed. You are likely to get a discounted price on these shares long term and it will make the perfect buying opportunity. If the stock continues flat or even slightly up, you will be great still, because with Q4 and beyond the stock still has a positive side to it.�
1/1/2015
guest Remember that Q3 last year seemed pretty darn good to those of us that are looking to the future, but the stock completely plummeted after the ER. Even a perfectly fine ER couldn't hold the stock price up to the fervor that had risen it in the weeks leading up to the ER.�
1/1/2015
guest Ok. I get You.
to Your first point: I don�t know about the sales projection but doesn�t everything hint that every car made is ripped out of Teslas hands immediately. How can the sales prediction be bad ? The increase in spending was to be expected, more Superchargers, more R&D, GF expenses. This is normal for a company in built up, isn�t it ? They also raised a billion for the factory already that�s sitting in their wallet right now paying dividends until it gets used for building the GF ?
second: I must refer to the "blabla" here: historical stock prices are no indication on the future whatsoever. The future is open.
third: I have read about delays for some but that could very well be because Tesla is stretched over three continents now, all of them eager to get their share of cars. So the added up deliveries are probably in line.
fourth: I think You underestimate the impact of photos of the first Model X alpha on the road or at a supercharger will/might have. I bet a lot of people on this forum already have all their antennas up to spot it asap.
That might skyrocket the stock price more than anything atm.
fifth: Governor Sandoval signed yesterday. i have never seen a government acting so fast ever. That�s all Elon Musk waited for. I bet he will not waste too much time until the groundbreaking. That might have a good short term impact.
You say the stock is stagnating. I wouldn�t call an 8% gain in the last month a stagnation. Sure we have done better in the past
I totally agree with You on the blowout long term. But I really don�t see bad news ahead. Though I wouldn�t rule out that You are right about the stock stagnating for a while. I am just confident that one of the things I mentioned will bring us forward probably sooner than later. Perhaps as soon as next week. I believe we will see the groundbreaking in a very short period of time.
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Yep @ckessel I remember that too well :cursing:. But it is very probable that the Q3 announcement will take place after the groundbreaking and hopefully after that Model X Photo went viral. The market will recognize more than back then that Tesla doesn�t just produce hot air. So I am confident that this Q3 the stock market will react accordingly to what Tesla produces.�
1/1/2015
guest Chicken: awesome summary! I agree with your sentiments.
TD: I think we "Q3 pessimists" think that the market will not react well to flat deliveries and a GAAP and non-GAAP loss. While we here can understand why that is, this will play into the bear narrative perfectly: QoQ delivery slowdown and "flat" sales in North America and higher spending (probably) due to model X and Gigafactory building. The seeking alpha headlines write themselves: "Tesla motors sales down, yet plan to spend billions of taxpayer dollars to expand production". Ouch and ouch. Wrong, but a nice narrative.
IF that plays out, then it would be the buying opportunity not seen since April 2013 since Q4 would indeed be set up to be a monster beat since they can go guns blazing with their 2 lines and model X realities will start to roll in for sure.
Just a bit of fiction writing here. It may not go like this at all. Maybe they announce juicy Model X things in the next 2 months and that is the narrative and the stock hits ATH's and shrugs off the Q3 results.
As for the factory, I don't expect the market to EVER react positively to anything about the GF again until it is online, making real sellable batteries, and better yet faster and cheaper than anticipated. Unfortunately, a lot of news/rumors about the factory could weigh down the stock for the next few years. Any perceived delays, problems with the partners or anything could potentially cause a negative. Also every dumb story about super batteries or super hydrogen would bolster the narrative that the GF is going to make batteries that will be obsolete in 2017.�
1/1/2015
guest Good evening/morning all around the world!
Here is a link by maoing from the China Thread with endless cars in a row waiting to be delivered.
Where is the harbour located in CA the freight ships are loaded and how frequently do freight ships leave CA for China and how many cars such a freight ship usually carries away?
Does anybody have a clue?
http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/thread-c-2357-33623127-1.html�
1/1/2015
guest @austinEV: Thrilling times ahead for sure�
1/1/2015
guest Great updates everyone! Lots of good discussion considering this is "chatter" thread.
I'm just chiming in to say I sold off the last of my J15 Call, for a bit of a loss. I debating holding them longer to capture some Gigfactory news, but Theta was eating into them more and more each day. I've now got a bit of cash to take advantage of any dip/Q3 nonsense/J17's. Wish I knew what I know now 18 months ago about options and investing in general. I will forever kick myself for recognizing what TSLA would become, and not having the Investor knowledge to properly capitalize on it.
Still holding ITM J16's that are nice and green�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah I am not at all saying that we are looking at a crash and burn scenario here, just being cautious in the upcoming month because the stock could really go either way. There is nothing saying they will show the MX Alpha at all and it is very likely that they wouldn't since the precedence has been set by both the roadster and the MS. You get to see the wonderful concept and then you get to ride around in the Beta's... I don't think Alpha stuff on either car model previously really got leaked out from the company when it would be relevant.
I want to address your confusion on what I am saying about the Q3 results. They are only to do like 200 more deliveries this quarter over the last. That impacts their revenues because it will basically be flat revenue. Then look at their guidance for SG&A, R&D and Cap-ex spending... That stuff is all going up by like 20%. Without the revenue going up by at least 20% as well it is going to be tough to see a scenario in which they post even a non-GAAP profit. They haven't been non-GAAP negative since like Q3 of 2012 or some such. That is what drove the stock into its initial breakout was them turning a profit... To go back into the red will shale some people up and likely hurt the stock pretty bad. I hope we don't see red in Nov but I am not going to bet the farm on a hope.
Again long term this is hot air. The sales numbers are not flat because of demand and they need to continue spending money to expand in every way possible. They are sitting on almost 3Bn in cash so burning cash negative isn't necessarily a bad thing and would be expected. Anything gigafactory spending related will thankfully be stripped from the non-GAAP numbers (or it should be) since this is all considered "one-time expenses) but still... The ER numbers even if they do hit guidance on deliveries is not going to look pretty.
Now combine that with the chance (I still say it is a small chance, but the chance is there) of missing production numbers and therefore delivery numbers and you have the chance of a REALLY negative ER.
As AustinEV says... The headlines kinda write themselves at that point and they will have all the fuel and pointless dribble they could want to drive their short story about a CEO who is lying through his teeth, a company who can only sell cars because of government handouts, a company whose sales are clearly dropping I mean look they couldn't even sell enough to meet their guidance (cause these people don't believe in the production constraint thesis).... On and on.
Honestly it is a good thing... Because regardless of what happens to the share price this Q should help entice shorts back into the stock. I mean... Thishouse of cards is just waiting to fall... Who am I to argue with that logic?�
1/1/2015
guest Yea, we all kept pointing at positive upcoming catalysts back then too. The X prototypes are expected, it's been talked about in ER conference calls. The gigafactory is all old news. What'd move the stock is the factory not moving forward as expected. Elon did say they were keeping some R&D stuff a secret though, which if that is revealed, who knows?
The last two ATH had roughly 50% drops off of their gains (i.e. 120->245 gave back ~60 of it, a similar thing happened off the first ATH). Maybe this time will be different...�
1/1/2015
guest Hoping the X alpha is going to have significant impact on the stock is beyond me after watching the gigafactory site selection, terms of the deal & unanimous approval leave it flat.�
1/1/2015
guest Q3 2013 was a disappointment (at least I was very disappointed and shared so immediately after the call and in the days that followed) since they didn't give any guidance for 2014, while the stock was a crossroads and needed that guidance. And then the fires hit. IMO the stock should have never dropped all the way to $116.10 if Tesla would have issued 2014 guidance of 35k cars. I think the fires would have taken TSLA to $133 (where there was strong support) and 2014 guidance would have kept it above that. But without any 2014 guidance, the stock was free to fall further than $133.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, if Q3 is not as good as TM hoped for..could we finally see those ZEV credits being used?�
1/1/2015
guest I agree that Q3 earnings don't look great. It's true they aren't delivering many more cars than Q2 (which means revenue is flat) and they have added one-time expenses of the powertrain warranty, all while they have fast-growing expenses. And the factory after retooling has been slower than expected with production (although I think they will met Q3 delivery guidance of 7800 vehicles delivered).
However, if Tesla meets delivery guidance for Q3 and even if they're non-GAAP non-profitable, I still think there's the bigger backdrop of a huge Q4 guidance (over 13k vehicles delivered) along with the bigger backdrop of Q1, Q2, Q3 2015 being massive quarters of production ramp toward their 100k production run rate by end of 2015.�
1/1/2015
guest In other words, what happens if/when Tesla reports Q3 with slight negative eps non-GAAP and barely meets 7800 delivery guidance, but reinstates 2014 guidance of 35k deliveries along with 13,000+ vehicles delivered in Q4?
I say it's positive. That's why I'm not a Q3 pessimist.
People already know Tesla needs to take a one-time charge for the power train warranty, so this is already factored in somewhat to Q3 forecasts. Even if Tesla reports slightly negative eps, I don't think it's a big issue. It's only when Tesla surprises in a negative way, then it would be negative.
But the bigger issue will be guidance and the growth trajectory of Tesla. They'll need 13,000+ deliveries in Q4 to meet their 35k guidance, so as long as they keep their 2014 guidance then their Q4 guidance will be massive. Of course there's risk that Tesla lowers 2014 guidance of 35k deliveries. So if you think that they will do that, then I can understand why you might be a "Q3 pessimist". But if you think they're going to re-affirm 2014 guidance of 35k deliveries during the Q3 shareholder letter/call, then basically you're saying that Tesla will give a massive 13,000+ delivery guidance for Q4 and the market will react negatively due to other factors. Hmmmm. #confused�
1/1/2015
guest I'm not at all worried about Q3 delivery numbers. What I'm looking for is Q4 guidance (did the factory line upgrades result in the expected increased productivity?), Model X news, and maybe 2015 guidance. If plans are on track, the stock may bounce around a bit, but ultimately revert to its steady path upwards.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree with you and will even go out on a limb and say q3 has the greatest chance for a large beat than we have seen. So little expected yet new line could do a lot more than before. Vin counting deliveries estimates all uncertain. Orders are out there. Factory closed two weeks so a lot of reports out there about decreasing sales in USA in august. However, battery pack assembly did not have to stop for upgrade of the production line so plant may not have been totally idle for those two weeks. Guidance could be very large for 4thqtr. Will not buy calls for it unless large drop in stock price before but also would not sell covered calls going into report either�
1/1/2015
guest I believe they used ~$11 million in ZEV last quarter and I think they will use more if/when needed.�
1/1/2015
guest I guess because I am factoring in a 20% chance of a miss on Q3 (I ran the numbers a bunch of different ways, they do have a TON of leeway here to meet the guidance... but there was a ton of reports confirming that the line didn't start up as quickly as planned and delivery delays pretty much across the board... it is going to be close I think) I think that IF they miss, even IF they reassure that they somehow pull some 14,000 deliveries out to make up for the miss, I think people are not going to buy it, and there will be a panic and sell off. If they meet the guidance we could see the stock just trade flat depending on how negative in the red they are.
Estimize has the Wall Street Consensus at .07 EPS and 859.47M Revenue... which the Revenue is estimated flat from previous Q (as it should be) but they are still shooting for a positive EPS. (and don't get me started on where Estimize itself is at... they are much higher... and I am scared at that thought.
Businessweek is saying an EPS of .02 and Revenue of 892 (which is much higher revenue but much lower EPS)... So even they are assuming Tesla will pull out positive on the EPS... Very few people seem to be in the negative here on the EPS... So it would totally be a miss to post a negative EPS because noone is expecting it... and that is why I say the price will drop even if they just MEET guidance... because earnings is going to miss most people's expectations (unless they sell off all of their ZEV credits haha! I mean they have like 200+ of them... what is the going rate for these things?).
If people were estimating them post negative I would say we would be safe... but not enough are, that this is likely to be a huge miss this quarter. I think Tesla knows this, which is why they have been trying to set expectations and also give a massive glimpse into the future... but does Wall Street have the stomach to wait around till next year? It is a tough call...
Of course all of this might change if we start getting some really positive estimates on September deliveries... but I don't know, I remain skeptical.�
1/1/2015
guest TSLA was trading around $100 that day. He's apparently held a TSLA short position since then, either personally or for his hedge fund clients. He's been a non-stop FUD machine with his tweets and Seeking Alpha articles & comments for well over a year. He must have lost a ton for himself or his clients. I'd feel sorry for him, except his campaign has been designed to take good people down with him, either by discouraging purchases or encouraging short selling.�
1/1/2015
guest I think there's a good chance (ie., 30-40%) that they actually miss Q3 guidance on # cars produced by 200-400 cars (guidance was 9000 cars produced). But I think they'll meet guidance on deliveries (7800 cars) because they have a lot of options (ie., selling cars in pipeline or inventory cars). So I think Tesla missing guidance on cars delivered is relatively low (maybe 10-15%).
In terms of profitability, Elon already mentioned with the power train warranty announcement that Q3 could negatively affected. I think Estimize and such places aren't factoring in real-time estimates from the analysts that matter. Also, whether Tesla is $0.05 eps non-GAAP or -$0.05 eps non-GAAP... I don't think it has a big impact. Actually, let me rephrase that. If there is vague or weak forward guidance then having a slightly lower eps (even negative) than expected is going to negatively affect Tesla's stock price. However, if the following quarter's guidance (and following year) is very strong then I think a slight miss on earnings eps won't have much impact. The more important issue is Tesla's trajectory and whether they're on track to meeting Q4 guidance or not.
Also, Q3 earnings will happen in early November so Tesla will have good visibility into Q4 and I think if they re-affirm 35k deliveries for 2014 and 13k+ deliveries for Q4 then investors will believe them since it would be almost halfway into Q4 when they share that info.�
1/1/2015
guest I remember during Tesla's 4th or 1st quarter announcement of 2013, I was virtually 100% carefree. I was neutral in terms of my feelings on a beat or a loss. If they beat, then my account would grow, but if they didn't beat then I would be able to buy a lot more shares on the dip. I was actually a bit excited about being able to buy more shares knowing that the rest of the year will be pretty darn good. Right now, I have that same neutral feeling. If tesla beats then great! But if share prices dip for some reason, then it'll be another buying opportunity of a lifetime as outlook for the rest of 2014 and 2015 looks fantastic. Especially when x is available. For those trying to time this stock, I have to warn you, it's impossible. You may never see prices this low again if tesla beats, meets 4th q guidance and announces x to be on time.�
1/1/2015
guest @chickensevil: Thanks for elaborating. I understand Your concerns better now and You have a point there. I also agree that FUD writers will write FUD. They will surely exploit even the little dent in production because of the retooling. But what keeps me optimistic (short term, too) is that the Tesla-Story has grown a much broader base of people / investors who are aware that Tesla is not Vaporware. Even before the three cars...You know...lighting up, the stock was steadily gaining, probably because of a growing base. Now a year later this base is standing on much more solid feet. That also leads me to believe that the market price is not overvalued. TLSA has gained a lot of credibility/credit/trust since then. The Model X will put that trust on even stronger feet. So when was the last time a FUD writer had really success in pushing the stock down significantly ? They despereatly write till their fingers bleed atm, but they don�t find anything. But You are right, the points You made could change that. I have been successfully avoiding giving them clicks for a few months now (yay !). Every setback since the incidents was just a healthy correction for the stock price which is in my opinion absolutely anchored in reality atm.�
1/1/2015
guest Yes always new FUD but it's getting more benign. Nobody predicting BK or cars exploding anymore. No one saying can't build it. Last FUD I read was that tesla will not make its qtr because wait is longer and that somehow gm issue with corvette shows it can happen
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I remember 2013 1 st qtr was disappointment with poor margins. EM wanted to "punch himself in the eye". Parts suppliers would ship parts claiming they would only build 2000 cars a year and tires flown in from Europe.�
1/1/2015
guest We should attention to this point Chickenlittle made yesterday.
The main reason Tesla is "constrained" is battery packs... not the rest of the car. They have the capability to make more cars, but they don't, because they never have the battery packs.
If they were able to continue to build battery packs at the usual rate throughout the production line downtime, that means they are able to make (at least) the right number of battery packs to meet their 2014 guidance... 35,000. They would end up with a stockpile of battery packs... something I'm sure they'd never seen in the factory before!
The production line can "speed up" and make enough cars to match the stockpile of battery packs. In other words, there will not be a failure to meet guidance, just a initial delay in deliveries, followed by a surge of deliveries as the year comes to a close.�
1/1/2015
guest This is how I feel as far as a stock purchase outlook. I am just trying to gauge it from an option outlook which is a little harder. But overall as I have said before, right now the story still hasn't changed. So any significant drop would signal a buy to me. Now it is just a matter of figuring out how to play the options game. Me personally I'm leaning toward a straddle just because for Tesla it is highly unlikely we stay flat over the long run. The payout isn't nearly as great as getting the direction right, but at least it should give me some kind of payout....
And with the flag forming on the chart it is likely the sideways trading will be done very shortly. So yesterday before the close I threw some pennies at next week's expiration for a straddle and we will see where it goes, and I am trying to plan a straddle for when the November monthly options drop so I can play that expiration... Because Dec is a little too far away and Oct is just too close.
I appreciate hearing everyone's opinions and outlook as we get a little closer to Q3 it does help and I like having all the different views so I can avoid my confirmation bias as much as possible�
1/1/2015
guest +1 Excellent observation. The market reaction should be interesting when Elon explains during the next conference call how this consideration is allowing production to get caught up and perhaps even exceed projections.�
1/1/2015
guest Q1 2013 was a blowout. Do you mean Q4 2012?�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks. Yes of course that was presented in the 1st qtr but was 4th qtr results�
1/1/2015
guest Sounds like it would be a good time to start a Q3 speculation thread! Thanks for all your input, I really don�t know what to expect short-term.�
1/1/2015
guest How about a poll asking?
Q3 deliveries, meet or miss?
Q3 EPS, meet, inline, miss?
Q4 guidance raise?�
1/1/2015
guest Fast Laner,
The closest shipping location from Fremont is Oakland, Ca., a short distance away. That said, sometimes Tesla will ship from other ports if there's an economic incentive or an earlier availability. I live in Hawaii, and a year ago my Tesla was shipped out of Los Angeles, which is a bit of a surprise because the distance to Hawaii is longer from Los Angeles than from Oakland and the drive to the Port of Los Angeles is much longer than the drive to Oakland.�
1/1/2015
guest Regarding a potential stock price pull back in the near future and after Q3 results are reported, the possibility certainly exists, but I think any drop from these sources would be lighter than the type of reactions we've seen in the past. The reason for my feelings is that I see quite a few people who would like to own TSLA and are waiting for any type of pullback to buy more. I believe this desire to buy is caused by a much more certain path to success now in place (Gigafactory location chosen, Panasonic on board, state tax concessions in place, no concern about demand by Musk, Model X development likely on track now, etc.). In other words, Tesla looks very much on track to execute its plan right up through Model 3.
I also suspect traders will be less skittish about descending stock prices because the market has shown much more constraint this time around with ascending stock prices. Remember when Adam Jonas's positive appraisal sent TSLA skyrocketing to 265? Now we've had far more concrete positive news (Gigafactory on track, Elon predicting 100,000 car/yr. delivery rate by end of 2015, etc.) and the stock is hovering only about 15 points higher than the peak after the Jonas statements. Remember recently when we saw the midday spike over 290? The market sobered up really quickly and the stock price readjusted quickly. I suspect we'll see less volatility than in the previous year because the price is higher now (tempering rate of rise) but also the path to success years from now is much more certain (tempering rate of decline).
That said, bad things can still happen. Events that cause the stock market to plunge could drag Tesla down in the short run, and any nasty recession would of course reduce demand for cars, since such large-ticket items are the first to be cancelled by consumers in bad times. Thus, my concerns are more focused these days on the health of the market and the economy and less upon the ups and downs of speculation about how well Tesla is doing.
As long as the economy remains healthy enough for the gigafactory to achieve substantial cost reductions in batteries, Tesla will quite likely succeed with its plan and we will benefit from that success.�
1/1/2015
guest Well said Papafox. I am certainly concerned about Q3 and any black swan events. I believe the question was asked but not discussed on another thread.....I also do not know what to make out of the effect Alibaba IPO will have on TSLA and other momentum stocks. Will retail investors and fund managers sell TSLA to book profit and buy Alibaba hoping it will give better returns than TSLA in the short and medium term?�
1/1/2015
guest The Fed meeting this week is something to look out for and a general impact on the market.�
1/1/2015
guest i wouldn't worry about this...Alibaba is only selling 20bn worth of stock. Even if institutions did need to 'clean house' in their portfolio to buy Ali baba I think the effect on any individual stock would be super minimal.�
1/1/2015
guest Really happy right now that I threw out a Strip for my Straddle, I only sorta wish I had bought a few more contracts at this point, but for right now, I am happy, now I just need to work on finding an exit for my trade... hrmmmm This is the tough one... where do you find a good marker for when to take your money and run?�
1/1/2015
guest Anyone else notice a huge jump in number of shares available to short at Interactive Brokers. Showing 3.2M available, previously the largest number I'd ever seen was 1.1M shares available.�
1/1/2015
guest So I decided to cut and run at a 150% return (although I am still sitting on the call side of that straddle, since I expect it to expire worthless at this point... so if the stock turns back around and I can recover that money I will.)
But I have turned around and initiated a new Strip at 262.5 and 272.5, again with a Friday expiration. I am basically playing with money I made off the sale so if this expires worthless I will be looking at roughly break even on this decision. We shall see where it goes in the short term.�
1/1/2015
guest
The issue I have with this is that the Q4 guidance, and even 2015 guidance has already been given. There is virtually no chance they will increase guidance for Q4 (will be sweating to make existing forecast) or 2015 (same). So, if they were to miss deliveries for Q3 by a bit, I don't see how that could be balanced by any future guidance, at least at this time. The potential good things must come from the model X schedule, not deliveries IMO.�
1/1/2015
guest Man, what is going on today, the story has not fundamentally changed for the worse...?�
1/1/2015
guest Bizarre AJ note.�
1/1/2015
guest Today is just allibaba buying, netflix and amazon are down as well�
1/1/2015
guest I saw that, but I find difficulty in extrapolating anything related to Tesla... if anything it benefits them because of the autonomous driving (which is more related to MobilEye if anything)�
1/1/2015
guest I agree, but it seems the market does not. It's also a bad macro day overall, high beta stocks are selling off across the board.�
1/1/2015
guest Hello members of TMC,
i barely can stand a certain TMC member's bombardement with ps 500 posts since aug 21st. I do hope that this does not continue.�
1/1/2015
guest There's an ignore user feature. Doesn't help if folks quote whoever it is all the time, but it's well worth using.�
1/1/2015
guest I think this member is a troll, it is constantly commenting downswings or the possible outcome of downswings.�
1/1/2015
guest I guess this member is gone now? I don't see any posts from that frequent of a poster.�
1/1/2015
guest this member is on-line right now.�
1/1/2015
guest Don�t panic. The stock is up 90% this year alone. It is a minor setback. Morgan Stanley blather is not going to change the long time story one bit.�
1/1/2015
guest My ears are burning so you must be talking about me, if you have an issue with what I have said I am all ears for where I was wrong with anything I have spoken over the past month... I said it back then that I anticipated we were getting close to our short term top, the stock would likely go to 300 (I was close... 291...) and then it would pull back. It is just TA, and founded in what we know to be true about Q3... And I could easily be wrong.
Most people were wanting a pullback so they could buy. This is that pullback. It happened much sooner and much quicker than I anticipated, and I am sorry if the stock dropping and my pointing it out offends you because I meant no offense. Once we clear Q3 I expect the stock to blow through the roof again, and I have also made that statement very clear. So, no, I am not trolling, but just providing my 2 cents on where I think the stock will go.
If you weren't talking about me, then I have no clue to whom you might be refering. And you might as well just come out and name drop so we don't fight amongst each other any further.�
1/1/2015
guest Go on chicken, post all you want. I find your posts valuable.
I'm deploying cash here for options but waiting it out just a tad, the time value of most medium term OTM calls has really spiked today... But if we trade flat a day or two here it will drop nicely.�
1/1/2015
guest Buying options like it's black friday. short term, medium term, leaps. they all look good.�
1/1/2015
guest I can attest to the non-trollishness of Sir Chicken and others that have been posting. This has actually been an excellent thread over the past several weeks, and I am greatful to the contributors. Not since the days of Bill Hamp and Brysondad have there been significant troll sightings.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah, there are no trolls here. If there are, I guess I am one of them since I have been down on Q3 a bit. But the last thing we need here are fights between people who are 99% bullish and people who are 89% bullish.�
1/1/2015
guest I also feel that chicken's post have been extremely helpful, not to mention I feel that they have been pretty accurate.
Post on chicken!�
1/1/2015
guest It seems to me that most tesla moves take more than one day to play out. I sold 1/3 of my position at the 250 mark and i'm kicking myself, but i'm not buying back in for later options. This has been a disaster for me, and I agree that the Morgan Stanley report is BS, but I don't think 4 hours after this starts its over. Usually it takes 48 hours before we have enough shorts loaded up to send this upward.�
1/1/2015
guest Well thanks guys! Makes me feel a bit better that he might not have been talking about me... but I scratch my head at who he could have been otherwise. Cause I haven't seen any crazy talk in either price movement threads. Hrmmmm
In any case, AustinEV, care to point out what strikes you are thinking about for the medium to long term? cause this is really where I am struggling right now to grasp where we might go to. Cause I can't buy Nov yet, Dec/Jan I am all over the place, and Mar I think would be excellent choices depending on when they actually do their ER. Hmmmm I think I will target a couple calls for March... Someone else posted that elsewhere that by then the stock should really be through the roof again.�
1/1/2015
guest And that is exactly what I told myself all morning. Just chill out, this will take 3-5 days to finish going down. But.... it is basically at the 50day MA. I like that level for support. This may not be the borromest bottom ever but I think we can see it from here. Also there may be a dead cat bounce from these levels. I am not shy about flipping weeklies if that happens.
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I got a whole mess of weeklies at 255, 10/24 at 255 and some itm J15 at 225.�
1/1/2015
guest I think we're about to see margin-call time. I guess I'll follow your play tomorrow if there's further downside. Otherwise, if there's upside tomorrow then I'll be just another sucker that lost a lot of money to a headfake down, now that I've sold a good portion of my calls.
One other thing to consider as a reason for this drop: We are rapidly approaching september option expiration, and perhaps an unnamed large bank had a significantly large number of open 250 short option contracts covering their shares.�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks appreciate the insight. I think my issue is that since I am still not staking much as far as options go I can't really afford to purchase some of those, without it being far too much of the current value of my options account. So I will just have to keep finding value trades I can afford and hope for a giant balloon like I have been quite lucky to get.
A lot of my strategy has been to purchase something just at the limits of where I feel it could go to in a reasonable time with the intent to sell if it just makes it close to there at some point before expiration. So like if I expect the stock to go up from here to say 280 I might buy a 290 with a little more time cushion and then sell as we get close to 280. I have just been apparently way under guessing where the stock would move to (both in terms of my up and down trades) that it has really paid off.
So I will be forced to stick to my rather risky strategy until I either get comfortable enough with options that I will stake more initial capital or until this nest egg grows large enough that I can play more comfortably.
At the same sense, because I know I am being risky, I am trying to sorta hedge at the same time and not stake that much money into that specific trade. So it comes out to like 600$ staked (with like 1/3 to 1/2 of that expected to become worthless) that becomes like 1200$ and I am happy with these small, but meaningful gains as I learn what I am doing here.
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*cough* Morgan Stanley *cough*, Haha, sorry couldn't resist... the timing of that analyst note couldn't have been better though...�
1/1/2015
guest You're an invaluable member here, chickensevil. Keep posting. Don't be deterred by trollish comments.�
1/1/2015
guest So we had a low point of ~180 in May and a new ATH of ~285 recently. If it gives back 50% of the gains again, we'd be looking for ~235.
I'm curious to see if this 50% of the gains pullback off an ATH holds true a 3rd time straight.�
1/1/2015
guest AustinEV, when you pick up leaps, do you go heavily ITM, ATM or OTM?
I'm looking at the $215 Mar'15, but have not been that heavily ITM before.�
1/1/2015
guest I really like deep itm leaps. You sacrifice some leverage if it goes your way, but they are much cheaper; less time value to pay. 215 is high for me, I normally would shop even lower. You just have to be careful with limits since these issues are thinly traded. By patient and pick them up a bit at a time, making sure you are paying what you think you are. If you bought 10 contracts of 145 J15 or something with a market order you would get a nasty surprise.�
1/1/2015
guest Like Chicken, I've been fully expecting a pullback on TSLA. Would not surprise me if Q3 ER is lackluster and that Q4 and 2014 guidance becomes iffy. I believe 2015, geopolitics willing, will be a great year with TSLA going past 300 and never looking back. But I expect some frustration before it gets to that point. I'm super long, so I just look at this week and possibly the next two months as a temporary seatbelt adjustment because we still have a long long way to go.�
1/1/2015
guest It does appear that max pain for Tesla Sept Monthly Options is 255 according to the imaxpain app I have. What a coincidence and how convenient.
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If max pain is going to be 255 this friday, it may be worthwhile to hold off on adding calls for several days, to allow volatility, and thus option prices, to decrease a little.�
1/1/2015
guest One thing that I am wondering is "why today?". Why did AJ release this report now, why this week specifically? Was it elon's comment, or did he just happen to finish running the calculations this weekend that made him realize no one would be buying cars in 15 years? Why didn't he release this as part of his summary around the quarterly report time? I think this supports and option expiration theory.�
1/1/2015
guest Indeed. Max pain was a constant phenomena on AAPL, especially with advent of the weekly options. While we are discussing possible (conspiracy?) theories, and perhaps it was discussed elswhere, but the Alibaba ipo is set this week as well. Perhaps investors and institutions are pulling some funds on their most profitable positions to play it. Or maybe, it is a simple as TSLA needing a pullback after such a nice run.�
1/1/2015
guest I do apologize for the statements i have made earlier and regret them , i just haven't happily played todays drop. Sold my call options expiring sep19th on sep9th at 2,30 euro gain a piece.
i'm thinking about buying call options expiring mar20th 2015 base price 300/320.�
1/1/2015
guest That means a lot, and thanks everyone for the vote of confidence. Again, I don't know if he was even talking about me... he hasn't said anything, I just know I have been pretty negative on the stock as of ~aug 21 and have been pretty post heavy in general on the forums (I love talking about TSLA and Tesla what can I say?) and I couldn't put my finger on anyone else that fit the description...
Now that my ego has been inflated.... heh j/k
But it is nice the people are overall receptive of well thought out views on the stock in both directions, I was worried I might be getting sucked too deep into the short angle, especially since as short term plays I have been playing in that direction... so I was just making sure I wasn't just blindly saying random stuff to go with what I was doing with options. It is really weird making money on the stock doing poorly and I feel a bit guilty because I really am a long term bull on the company. I can't wait for the stock to turn back around and climb again, because I know that it will be able to do so safely since we will have finally sold off and consolidated. Figuring out where the stock would go when it is off in the great unknown is hard, but now we have a clear path to get back to 290 and once we hit that we will be able to go much higher!
I also think once we recover and finally clear 300 we will be able to hold that level pretty nicely. At the very least ~290-280 will become the new potential bottom at that point in the future.
In the mean time as ckessel states:
I would add that both drops were about 2 months in length. So beginning of Nov should be the end of this troubling period... so maybe we all have it wrong? Maybe Q3 ER will be fantastic for the stock
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I'm easy, no harm, no foul. I was just concerned that I might be going too heavy in the negative comments, and I really am not trying to be. I do try my best to be as levelheaded about things as I can be since it is easy to let exuberance of the trade and making money steer you too far in either direction. Plus when you lose money... it REALLY sucks... even more so when you put a lot of effort into trying to identify the direction and get it wrong. Even I wasn't 100% confident on the direction, which is why I was posting that I had played it somewhat safe by doing a straddle that favored the downside (but would have also worked for upside). With TSLA one thing seems to always be certain, it doesn't trade sideways for very long, and everything was pointing to the end of that sideways trading that started on the 8th-ish.�
1/1/2015
guest I had to fight the urge to jump in again today, after being on the sideline for two weeks. I sold everything on Sept-2, and although I missed the high by two days and left some on the table, I feel rather good about my decision today. I also bought some 260 puts on Thursday which I closed today - a little early in the session but still lucky and a nice return.
I've been looking at the past periodicity as well Chicken, and I'm going to try and hold off until end of October where I plan to go in half before Q3 ER and half post ER to re-stablish my long position in stock and LEAPS. If 240 or the 200 day is reached before end of October/Q3 ER I will likely jump in with 1/2 or 2/3 then.
What a day!�
1/1/2015
guest This. I'm holding cash on the sidelines for now. If we trade down or flat I'm sure that for example a Mar15 OTM call will be cheaper on Friday. Even if the stock goes up to say $260 or even $265 come Friday the price difference might be small anyway. Volatility is a tricky beast.�
1/1/2015
guest In 5 minutes I learned the price of trying to "time" the market... lol. So I stated on the other thread that the stock opened +1 and I was waiting for some solid trades to come in on the put options I had, and as I was waiting the stock started dropping. So I was going to sell for like 10$, but with it dropping, I was like, I can wait, let's go for 11$, just as it was about to hit 11$ I changed to 11.50... and that was my greed and mistake getting the best of me, cause 2 seconds later the stock jumped up by about 3$ and my option lost around $3 of value... ouch...
Take that lesson from a noob, don't be greedy on a win. Just take what you can get when you know it is where you wanted it originally...
That being said, I still made off with a really great profit selling off those 262.50 puts I had, and shortly after the exit of that trade, I used some of the cash I was still already sitting on to do just a single contract straddle at 250 put and 262.50 call (they were priced roughly the same). I didn't repeat my pattern because I felt there was a strong chance we could repeat what happened last time when GS did this to the stock. So I just did a normal straddle and so far so good. but we shall see where the day takes us!�
1/1/2015
guest
I too managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I loaded up on weekly calls at the low point yesterday and managed to lose money. the open was weak and the market opened down. I was concerned that a weak market day would be too much headwind. Then both turned around. Ouch. Didn't lose much but it was like a 100k swing if I had just run into some traffic this morning.�
1/1/2015
guest All this options play is too complicated for me, being a long since the beginning (and having learned the hard way not to cash in too early), i'm cumulating on such dips, being content with prices around the 50-day MA. and i have no exit strategy other than fundamentally changed fundamentals (elon way of to mars and such ).�
1/1/2015
guest Options may be worth learning and putting a little bit of spec money into. Although options, even long dated ones, cannot beat the safety of shares, one can do quite well (ie see chickenlittle's recent posts regarding LEAPS purchased, which increased 160 fold and vgrinshpun's 78 fold gain).�
1/1/2015
guest It is just the power to do more with less money. That was the appeal for me being that I don't have millions to play with. Although if I did have millions to play with and did options it would be like having billions to play with... so I guess it really all just depends on your risk tolerance and ability to identify the direction of the stock price movement.�
1/1/2015
guest Sure such gains look fantastic, but as i understand there is also leveraged risk which i am not willing to take. the only thing i ventured into was selling occasional puts ; ) i know there is the newbie options thread with certainly valuable info.�
1/1/2015
guest You can pretty much make the risk profile whatever you want it to be, there are 100s of strategies that all have their own set of risks and their own set of rewards. Depends on what kind of multiple you are looking for and what you are willing to stomach as far as risk. It also involves a lot more research (in my opinion) which depending on your time investment may not be worth it to you. For someone like me who already spends an ungodly amount of time involved in Tesla and TSLA, it made sense.
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Well the gains didn't stick, and we have plunged... looks like the market overall is plunging... so whatever trades you made after selling off, I hope this isn't hurting you. Some gain is better than no gain
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Oh and for the record, this was why I liked my straddle strategy because there is still a ton of potential negative broad market conditions (or positive, I guess, if it went the other way) which is affecting TSLA today as well as whatever is impacting just the company itself. I thought we might be going up and up, but seems like that was wrong. Hmmmm we'll see where this goes.
For the record when I exit out of this play I am probably not going to mess around with this weeks options any further. Three positive plays in a row will be my limit, and I will need to go back to the drawing board.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm visiting rural relatives at the moment, so of course the power went out at about 9:25 EDT... fortunately it came back on after about 15 minutes. Still, the unpredictable movements are annoying.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, looks like the stock gave us all the opportunity to hit whatever mark you were looking for... this chart is all over the place today...
I will be very sad if this continues to trade sideways since that is actually the only way I lose on my strategy right now. Good thing I didn't stake that much money in this one. Because my confidence level keeps dropping each day that I will get that magical breakthrough value, I keep throwing less and less money into the trade itself. It works out great because at this point if this fizzles out and becomes worthless I will still have made significant returns this week, but I really would rather it not happen that way.�
1/1/2015
guest Bummer of a day, around lunchtime I sold the weeklies I picked up cheap yesterday at the low of the day for a slight loss. I'm not even going to look to see what they are worth now. I thought another tesla Tuesday was playing out.�
1/1/2015
guest AJ's note had something positive for me: I decided to get back in TSLA at 256$ after I shorted a while ago at 220$. I believe more than ever that TM will be disruptive to the auto world.
Next milestone: Unsettle the premium large SUV segment.�
1/1/2015
guest The "Inside Energy 2014" summit in New York City on Wednesday, September 17
1:00 pm EDT - Keynote Speaker - Elon Musk
Inside Energy | Presented by SolarCity | Home�
1/1/2015
guest nice. Thx for posting�
1/1/2015
guest tHah, had similar problem. It was 3:30pm here when market opened. I was stuck downtown and the only "reliable" internet was Starbucks. Of course 3:30pm everyone is out drinking coffee. It took 15 minutes for one order to get through. By the time I finally got all the positions I wanted, it's 5pm�
1/1/2015
guest I've been wanting to take a chunk of money and put it into TSLA for months, but there was always something holding me back. So finally to get over any fears, I just dipped my toe in very lightly and sent an order to buy a couple shares. I know I'm late to the dance, but hopefully not too late. I still see the future being very bright and I'm hoping a noob like me will be able to play the game like so many of you have been doing the last few months/years.�
1/1/2015
guest Welcome mchk and best of luck! Better late than never, plenty of upside in the long term!�
1/1/2015
guest Love to hear about the keynote speech. I assume it�s almost exclusively focused on Solar...�
1/1/2015
guest Here's a link to an article about today�s SolarCity �Inside Energy� summit in New York which featured Elon Musk as keynote speaker: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-a-thermostat-sized-box-may-one-day-power-your-house-2014-09-17�
1/1/2015
guest Here's a link to the HuffPost Science article "Electric Car Breaks 200 MPH, Sets New World Land Speed Record": Electric Car Breaks 200 MPH, Sets New World Land Speed Record�
1/1/2015
guest OK, this is adorable banter. Does this mean we have Talulah to thank for the Calendar app?
�
1/1/2015
guest This will be a hard week to decide how the stock will move. Will it regain some of its momentum now that AliBaba is out of the way, or will it need another anouncement to get the price up?
I bought stock on the dip last week, but was trying to think of a good option play this week. I don't see one with so much uncertainty/volatility.�
1/1/2015
guest This week really could be a tough one to call. As we most all agree, the dips we've experienced in the past week were mostly caused by external issues or bad information. For this reason, I see the possibility for the stock to climb Monday morning. If it doesn't climb much, I see the possibility of shorts jumping onboard by mid-day and trying to drive it lower. Snugging up my seatbelt and ready to hang on for the ride.�
1/1/2015
guest I have little faith that this week will be a good one unless we get a big announcement from TM or analyst upgrade. Sideways at best.�
1/1/2015
guest Premarket volume is a little high on this move down, so I am inclined to agree, particularly if we lose the 254-255 range. Funny, I told my wife on Thursday that the market manipulators were not trying to pin the price closer to 255, which was max pain for options. Unsurprisingly, Friday morning did not disappoint on that end (thanks to those very well-timed AJ ramblings), but I bought it up at $255 thinking that today would be the rebound that we were waiting for, but alas in the absence of news, I agree that the bad may get worse.�
1/1/2015
guest Guess I am glad I flipped my option play on Friday at a minor loss into an anticipation of further downside. I might just take my money and run on the open and call it a day.�
1/1/2015
guest Ouch!
Panic selling going on...just have to remind myself to takea deep breath and remember this is a long term investment that will go up in the long run�
1/1/2015
guest Well, we're starting to dip towards that low point...I suppose if I really believe in it, I'll be selling something like $240 puts to get in at roughly the low point with a little PUT commission as a bonus. I've already got a similar thing going though with JASO tying up my funds, but I might buy those back if TSLA hits $235.�
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