Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 14

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good point. Thanks for the clarification.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone know what percentage of Panasonic's small cell batteries go to Tesla?
    200M for car by the end of next year.
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
    You could depict the sectors with a Corolla, a Prius, a Volt and a LEAF (counter-clock-wise). The degree of the sloped lines depends on the parameters of TCO calculation, e.g. miles driven per year, years to hold the vehicle, loan interest rate when financing the higher up-front cost and so on. Still an impressive picture.

    Edit: ICE vehicles lose their advantage for gas prices > $4.20/gal. EU gas prices are ~$8/gal. So please send all BEVs over here and stick with hybrids - we'll be glad to help you save money!!! :wink:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They are assuming that car buyers care about nothing other than the cost of ownership. This is clearly not the case. If it were, people would not buy luxury cars. They would not buy SUVs unless they had large families or had to drive off-road or tow trailers. There would be nothing but econo-boxes on the road. But people want many things from their car besides low-cost transportation. Some people want styling. Some want comfort. Some want performance. Some just want an expensive car to show off how rich they are. Some buy SUVs because they have been deluded into believing they are safer. (My aunt bought an SUV when her grandkids were born so they'd be "safer" when she drove them around. And yet we know they were actually less safe than in a high-rated sedan.)

    People are buying EVs today even though they are not "competitive" because we like the cleanness, or the quietness, or the performance, or we prefer to use domestic energy, or (like me) we just don't like the stink of gasoline. EVs are competitive today for people who are willing to pay a bit more to make the world a better place or who want the performance.

    The graph really does not speak to competitiveness. It only speaks to cost of operation, or maybe cost of ownership. And it contains hidden (because not explicitly explained) assumptions about maintenance. As I've commented before, we keep hearing/saying that EVs are low-maintenance, but that has not been my experience.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Amen. It always annoys me when people ask about the "payback" on the Volt or the PV system, particularly when they drive a BMW 5 or own a 5000 sq.ft house. My usual answer is that the payback occurred as soon as I started using it.

    Agreed. Also does not account for the large spread in cost of electricity across the country, although given how the cost of the battery currently dominates, these other costs won't change the graph much.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This chart would be more informative if the y-axis were the ratio of gasoline price to electricity price.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it my imagination, or does the stock frequently make a jump at the opening and then go way far in the other direction, and then kind of stay more or less for the rest of the day? Certainly not always, and not enough to count on it as a basis for day trading, but often enough that it seems a frequent pattern. Or is it just the natural tendency to see patterns where there really are none?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The other noticeable gaping problem with this graph is that battery cost is a 1 time cost. And fuel is a recurring cost (assuming the life of a vehicle is about the life of the battery pack ~8-10 years). If I drive 20,000 miles a year that graph gets stretched to the right heavily.

    I personally think a $67k-$70k Model S (then take off $12,500 in tax breaks, because that is what I will get in Georgia) is cost competitive with a $35,000 vehicle that gets about 20-25 mpg when you drive ~20,000 miles a year! If you drive more you save more. If you drive less you save less.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    It's not just you. I have noticed it as well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You then also have to assume that the vehicle is worthless when you're done, which isn't the case. A quick look at cars.com for 5-series BMWs with over 100K miles shows they are worth around $15K (2004-2006 mostly). Now, what's a 8 year old Model S with 100K miles and a 75% capacity battery going to be worth especially since the version 2s and version 3s will have better batteries and much nicer interiors than the one you're trying to sell.

    I think it's best to think of batteries as pre-buying fuel. When people look at a used EV with a spent battery, they'll add in the cost of a replacement battery to get to the overall cost they're looking for. And, you won't think of a spent 85kWh battery as a 60kWh battery since capacity falls off faster with later cycles.

    We need to remember that a $57K base Model S is really a $37K car with a $20K battery. That $20K gets you about 100K miles, so you're spending about $0.20/mile, plus electricity costs (say $0.03), which is what $4 gas and a 17 MPG car gets you. Some reduced maintenance costs the last few years (BMWs have free maintenance for 3 years), some tax breaks and carpool lane benefits, etc., brings you out slightly ahead, if you're willing to spend 7-8 years of fuel cost upfront. But, Americans don't like upfront costs. We complained about an iPhone that cost $600, but were and are happy to spend $30 more a month for a iPhone data plan that ends up costing us $720 after 2 years.

    Now, Tesla is probably being pretty conservative in its battery life promises, but people won't consider that when buying used. It may let you keep your Model S for longer than you think, and get more mileage for less money. On the other hand, an old EV with a new battery is going to perform pretty close to new, whereas old ICE cars get worse mileage, make more noise, pollute more, and may have other expensive repairs that the EV will probably avoid.

    There are many variables to the value equations. What will batteries cost when you go to sell your used vehicle? What will the appeal of Model S v1 be in 8 years when there are 4 generations of newer models to choose from, with almost a decade of technological improvements in them? The 17" flat Dashboard Touchscreen we all love today will look positively antiquated in 2020, when the latest Tesla's curved Dashboard entire surface is all touchscreen (eg OLED A thin film display).

    I think Model S makes sense for a number of reasons, but that we really do have to think of batteries as pre-bought fuel.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep. I'm going to start saving images of the graphs at the bottom of the NASDAQ TSLA site. I want to see if this keeps up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Close to break-out levels (now 33.71) but on very low volume. What to make of that??? Citizen-T: *wink*
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm assuming it's just up since the market is up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We are going to run into a lot of resistance at just below $35. If you are you nimble you might want to take some off the table when we get there (maybe even by the end of the day to be safe); but then you've got to be really quick to get back in when we have a pull-back. I think we will ultimately break through the $35 level this time (though I thought that last time too). Let's hope we have the market at our back when we reach that level.

    I don't like making more than one or two trades a month, so I'm sitting on my hands despite the volatility and waiting for the 200-day to get to ~$35. That is where I'll seriously consider taking some off the table, but need to see what the landscape looks like at that point.

    Low volume is normal on Fridays in the summer. Lots of people taking long weekends to go to the beach.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not that nimble. Besides I'm going to be away from my computer for the next few hours.

    The 15 day limit on the shorts is coming up soon. Are some of them being a little smarter and covering themselves now?

    I don't understand this very well. If TSLA doesn't get down to 26.978 by the end of the 15 days, does that mean they're forced to buy at a loss at that time?

    Citizen-T or Steph?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with ckessel, the up market is what is driving TSLA higher. I'm sure there are shorts covering (like there are everyday), but that is not the driving force. This is just a high beta stock moving with the market. Remember: today is payday, and we've had a down market for 6 sessions in a row. Obviously the market was going to be up, no mystery to be decoded in the numbers today.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which does not mean they shouldn't be. Compare your maintenance costs to other $110K + exotic cars. Just because Tesla over charges for "checkups" doesn't mean EV's in general will need the same.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Exactly. And most of them are unknowns, especially the duration and replacement cost of the batteries. That's why I focus on the environmental advantages, and the national security advantage of using domestic energy rather than trying to sell EVs as cheaper. Every statement about how long the batteries will last, and what it will cost to replace them, is necessarily a guess, with advocates being sometimes wildly optimistic, and nay-sayers being ridiculously pessimistic.

    Unfortunately, with the annual maintenance of the Model S rolled into the purchase price for the first three (???) years, we really don't know what the maintenance costs will be for this kind of EV. Again, it makes it hard to sell them as cheaper. And I wonder if there's really anything special about the Roadster compared to the S or the GenIII other than weight and component size.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, TSLA was up on a few of those down days. Some of it is just amplified market movement, but even when you take that into account, it's still drifting higher.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is always nice to read as $40/share buys me a 85kWh battery and $44 buys every last bell and whistle TM offers!

    5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts - Stockpickr! Your Source for Stock Ideas

    Market players should now look for long-biased traders in TSLA if this stock can manage to trigger a bigger breakout trade above some overhead resistance levels at $34.50 to $34.68 a share, and then above $35.75 a share with high-volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that�s near or above its three-month average action of 1.2 million shares. If we get that action soon, then TSLA will have a great chance of re-testing and possibly taking out its recent highs of $38.47 to $39.95 a share.

    One could buy TSLA off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop just below the recent breakout level of $32.80 a share. If you buy off weakness, then I would add once TSLA clears those breakout levels mentioned above with high-volume. A higher probability trade would be to buy off strength once TSLA triggers that breakout, and then simply use a stop a few percentage points below $34.50 a share.

    This stock is a favorite among the short-sellers. The current short interest as a percentage of the float for TSLA is a whopping 48.6%. This stock has some gigantic short-squeeze potential off any high-volume breakout. With that many shorts, TSLA could see some monster spikes higher if the stock can manage to clear some of those overhead resistance levels.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ^ Unfortunately I don't see a high volume breakout coming. There's almost nothing but small trades driving the last 2 days.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ^ My point also, we're just slowly "drifting upwards". Is this new investors getting in for the first time? Or shorts covering? Also, on the topic of shorts, wouldn't it be correct to assume that quite a few of them "got in" (i.e. started shorting) when the was high (the $33-39 zone)? To think if there was a way to get that data (not only the number of shorts but also AT WHAT PRICE they started shorting...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Kicked some butt today, albeit on average volume. up 1.55 +4.7%
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it's simply that the Roadster was something of a test for new technology. From a technical standpoint the motors should need no maintenance, the gear reduction should need no maintenance, the inverter, (PEM), should need no maintenance, nor should any of the electronics, and the batteries are already maintained every day by the BMS. As long as components are properly selected and built for the job, there is simply nothing that should need attention for years. If things are failing, (Roadster fan), they simply weren't the right device to begin with, or not properly applied.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apparently the PEM gathers dust and has to be blown out. I think there was talk of a liquid-cooled PEM, which I suppose would end that problem.

    Quite a nice steady climb today, over a point and a half.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    ^ Didn't I see that film like a year ago? I think I rented it from NetFlix.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's been out for awhile. Check this thread: Revenge of the Electric Car

    Also discussed a number of places.

    And finally ... good film!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, a really poor design, which at least an air filter would have fixed.
    Which the S has.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it's opening in the UK only now. A really cool movie!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
    And out now in HD on iTunes So I just wanted to Re-charge it
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I quite agree! Tesla's advantage, by having no legacy platforms to contend with, is huge. As long as competitors keep thinking they can create EV's out of ICE models, they will create mediocre EV's, with none of the handling and packaging advantaged of Tesla's "skateboard".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No doubt it's patented but as anyone can see by looking at an iPhone and and Android it only takes trivial differences to get around any patent.
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    guest
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    guest
    But I guess that Tesla is the first to implement it in a production car, and no one has challenged their right to do so.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right, I'm just saying I doubt Tesla has any patent protection for their use of it. Where components can be placed in a vehicle does not seem like it could be a protected concept.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I doubt Tesla will have any problems until they are profitable enough to be a tempting target for the patent trolls.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can anyone give me some advice? As reservation holders in NZ for a Model S we would also like to purchase some Tesla stock (probably only $4-5k US worth).

    Having never purchased shares before I have no idea how where to start. Do I need to contact a stock broker in NZ or are there other options? Please help.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hello everyone, I'm back from prison. I was a jailled for political reason for four days. That was terrible. The only thing I did was disclosing my bank account number. This is a very dangerous place I tell ya.

    That said....

    You guys freak me out.

    First. Short are not covering. Not yet. If they were, volume would be much greater. So what happend in the last couple of trading sessions? My guess is: nothing, no news, low volume, up ~10 %. This is new.

    What does this mean? Shareholders are holding. Just like I am, just like most of you are. Market is running out of sellers, not a good news for shorts.

    So, sit down, relax, open a beer, feet in water, enjoy the show ;)

    (I will try to behave from now on, food is not very good in prison)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There are online brokers such as TDAmeritrade, Scottrade, etc., I assume they can be used worldwide with an electronic deposit. Check their sites and see what they say. If not there is probably a NZ based online broker that is similar.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Welcome back :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, with a looming short-squeze (question is not if but when) I'm starting to think about how to time my selling, I want to sell close to the peak during the squeeze. The way I'm thinking is to watch the volume. We know there are roughly 23 million shares short sold. I'm think a few of those are "long term shorts" with big pockets, i.e. those who believe that in the long term Tesla will fail and they will "sit out" the squeeze that is will not cover even if the stock soars. These will be only a small percentage, say for simplicity 3 million. So then we have another 20 million who will be forced to cover at one price or another. Then what you have to do is define when the squeeze has begun (this is hard) and then watch the volume. And then what? When 18 million trades have occurred we are close to the peak? Problem is some trades will be new players entering, and if I was a non-believer in Tesla I would think that if there was a squeeze and the stock suddenly went to say $50 I'd think it's even better to start shorting at $50 than current prices. Also, during a squeeze it's common knowledge that at one point the price will be artificially high, so even if you are TSLA long it would make sense to short the stock from the peak price (if there was a way to know where the peak was) in the short term.

    So how to know when the squeeze has begun? And how to time your sell (and your re-buy?)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When the queeze begins, believe me, you will know. That's the easy part.

    The tricky part is to find the peek. That's almost impossible because a rising price will bring the stock into all headlines and will be on the radar of all idiots individual investors. That bring us to another risk, a bubble. When price of something go up, people buy. They think it will go up forever, they discovered the magic stock that is different this time. (Remember the US housing market? RIP.)

    We will get a queeze? That's almost a given. Will a bubble follow? We don't know. So that's why it's a bit tricky to time the peek.

    One other risk to think about is the possibility of a computer reverse crash. If shorts stops are all around the same price (let's say $50) at the stock suddenly jump to $60, computer will have tons of transaction to process picking-up all seller's stops profits. My stop is at $500. I know it's huge, but computers can be really dumb.

    Good luck, we will need nerves of steel to stop us from selling ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What you are trying to do here is incredibly difficult. Let me suggest that you sell shares in stages as the price rises rather than trying to nail the top. What I mean is, if you want to sell 100 shares, and you think that a short-squeeze is in process, sell the first 25 as soon as you see it; sell the next 25 at some higher point, sell another 25 when you think we've peaked; and sell the last 25 if you were wrong and we get even higher.

    People always talk about buying low and selling high. I buy on the way down, and sell on the way up. I find this works much better.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FWIW, I have not been happy with Ameritrade. They mangled their tax reporting and got me audited because of it. Once I dump TSLA someday down the road, I won't be using them again.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is good advice.

    Won't the NASDAQ halt trading if price increases like that were to happen in a short period of time, especially with huge volume???
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They may halt it temporarly (or not: http://nasdaq.cchwallstreet.com/NASDAQ/pdf/new_listing_rules.pdf)

    But at some point, they have to restart ;)

    But I think they would not have time to halt it before the reverse crash, it could take only seconds. Would they reverse the transactions? They did that once in 2010 but it was due to a bug or a human error (2010 Flash Crash - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

    But for this stock, I don't think they would reverse anything, no human errors here, just stupidity.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Up 3% ($1) again.

    I'm so glad I bought TSLA! ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And again, on average or even a little lower than average volume.

    I smell blood.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, thought I smelled that when it was at 40 a few months ago. I'm cautiously hopeful...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it still a good time to buy? You think there will be a dip this week, or will it just keep going up from here? And, do you recommend buying market or limit order?

    I got burned with buying AAPL at $631 in April. It was the same sort of situation, AAPL just kept going up, even on days the Dow was down. Some analysts were saying $1,000 as a new target. So I was in a rush to not miss the boat and got in.

    But, right after I bought the Justice Department announced a lawsuit against Apple, and it went downhill from there. Although AAPL has started to come back this month.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When it touched the 40 level, it was not ready yet. It's still not ready as there is still a lot of things they did not say yet. The real launch did not occur in my opinion, the 6-22 lauch was just a tease. But even if it's not there yet, market is unpredictable, it's possible that sentiment is changing slowly. Shorts are in denial, they don't want to officialize losses. At some point losses will be too big, with all positive reviews, their beliefs are being challenged.

    They will give-up. When is the question.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I knew that, I would be driving a Model S today.

    Is it time to buy? Hell ya!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All depends on your timeline. If you intend to turn a profit in the next couple days, I'd say that now is a terrible time to buy. If you plan on holding for 10 years, then you aren't going to even notice the difference between buying a couple days ago and buying now.

    Tell us more about what you want out of your TSLA shares.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He kinda laid-out his profile on his post I think. Short term investor listening to gurus. Analysts said Apple would be 1k, and he jumped. Selling and taking a loss because it did not go there fast enough.

    I have a name for this: sheeple.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or just new to investing. People can read what you type, Steph.

    Remember how bad the food was? Yeah.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ;)

    I was just descibing a pattern we see all to often with newbies investors. My comment was not intended a anyone, but those who act like I described are the majority. No offence.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This guy is a way ahead of most people playing in the market because he got burned once acting like that and now he is trying to learn from it. Don't jump down his throat, Steph.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I predict there will days during which Tesla stock declines in value.

    I further predict there will be days during which Tesla stock increases in value.

    I predict that some time in the future, Tesla stock will be worth more than $40/share.

    With Tesla stock at $35 today, one hard prediction is knowing whether Tesla stock will hit $40 again before it hits $30 again. Right now the overall news is pretty good, but should Tesla not make 5000 deliveries this year or not be as profitable per car as they said, the stock could easily drop. If the news is all good for a while, it may be that we'll never see $30 again. Then again, look at Netflix's roller coaster ride into the high $200s and then down 80% all within a year.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You don't have to wait. Just tell your new brokerage you want to transfer your entire account from Ameritrade. They'll be very happy to make it work.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I finally get it. Temporary excommunication.

    Well still above $35. Stay that high at closing?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Volume is always low this time of year; many institutional traders away on vacation. I don't know if we're seeing a small short squeeze of the individual naysayers or not. Maybe. I'm thinking of putting in some trades for "trailing stop %",*where if the price drops more than a certain percentage from its peak it will trigger a sale. The problem is that you really shouldn't do this when the volume is low, and TSLA often swings quite a bit. Sometimes these kinds of orders trigger just in time to make sure you don't get to cash in :-(. What is best, of course, is to watch the stock, but I just don't have the time to do that.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My rule of thumb is that if I don't have the time or inclination to watch a stock all day there are certain tools/strategies I just don't touch. I wouldn't get a dog if I didn't have the appropriate time and inclination to train it and exercise it. I feel the same way about advanced trading tools and strategies.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Citizen-T,

    I did want to learn. I bought the AAPL stock as a long term investment. I have some TSLA at $30 already and was lookin to perhaps get more. My question was just about the timing of that buy. I got the timing wrong with the AAPL buy, and could have gotten in at $580 just a few weeks later.

    My TSLA stocks are relatively short term--sell in Dec/Jan for helping fund my Model S purchase.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd argue that that's not best, even if you have the time. It's what leads to day trading and you end up trading on rumors and technicals and such. Tesla is a growth stock - best and easiest to just buy on dips and hold. With the recent run-up, you could put in a pretty generous trailing stop that will get you out with some profit and then look for the next opportunity to get in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's why I usually never play the stock market game, in fact it's the first time I trade since years. My last trade was in Nortel ;) (and I made a bundle)

    With Tesla, it's easy, you buy and forget. Why try to time the market? You risk missing on a possible and probable enormous short squeeze. Too risky for me, I'm staying in until the stuff hits the fan.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here is the gospel that I preach: don't buy all at once. It really is that simple.

    Go back to your AAPL investment. What if you had put on 50% of the total position you wanted to own. Then when it fell to $600 you could have put in another 25%, and when it fell to $580 you could have put your last 25% in (adjust specific numbers to suite your needs). People like to buy all at once because they are worried that they are going to miss the boat, but this is irrational. If you put on a portion of your position then the stock rockets off and you never get to put the rest of your position on, that is a very high quality problem to have, and I would like to have that problem please.

    Take the rest of your position and go find the next Tesla.

    Buy on the way down, sell on the way up. Don't try to time things just right, or you will always get it wrong.

    So...since you say you already have a position on at $30 but want to own more, I say hold on for now. In fact, I think when we touch $40 you might want to trim some. THE MARKET AWAYS GIVES YOU ANOTHER CHANCE. Be patient and enjoy the money you are making in the mean time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Allright, to my friend which I supplied my bank account, I will include some facts so you can have it easy...

    Market as a whole is pretty depressed today, this bi-polar market needs some medication. Market down .25% so far.

    Tesla is now up 4.23% and went from $31 to the current $35.71. A gain of $4.71 or about 15% in just about 5 days.

    The market was down 4 out of those 5 days. So. Something is happening.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. We have decoupled from all our usual trading partners (market indicies, ETFs, auto stocks) and seem to be moving on our own. For the first time in months the fundamentals are front-and-center. Would like to see incremental news and longer, equally glowing reviews coming in to continue fueling this fire.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is one news coming. And this one should be the bang we need.

    I was wrong with the 6/22 event. I was disapointed but I get it now (once more). The launch will be Apple-ish. They will wow the planet.

    So far, the event might be on 7/27. Market seems to start getting it...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm a little concerned about the market's reaction to the charging network announcement. I think that if it looks like it is going to take a lot of capital to implement, we might see profit taking. I might raise a little cash just in case so that I can take advantage of any pull-back. Do we have any more news on when that announcement is coming?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon said everything will make sense to everyone after the announcement. I believe him. My guess is that the supercharger announcement and the Model S launch to general public are one. So far, the info we have point to 7/27.

    That date would be great, a couple of days before, we will get the short numbers as of 7/15. That will set the stage.

    Closed at $35.96 today, up 5%. Sweet moves on no news and a down day :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not cool. I'll be cruising with limited access to trade that week. boo...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Put a very high stop ;)

    Is this what we call "off the chart":

    Untitled.png
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, nice. Volume was up today too, getting heavier towards the end of the day. Starting to smell like the desired short squeeze to me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ah yes and they will reveal the final interior at that event. :tongue:
    I imagine putting you and cali in one room. Or even better in one cardboard box atop Bonnie's baby turtle. An then feed TSLA ticker tape through the slots.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How did you know? :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since the short interest has been consistently high for a long time (not just since after TSLA was $39) I think it would be fair to presume that many actually did start shorting the stock in the $20's? I would start to get scared now...

    And yes, it will be fun to watch but even more fun to try to cash in on it at the right moment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes very nice volume in the last hour. But could also be technical traders who are now getting in on the stock in anticipation of a squeeze? Which in turn of course helps trigger the squeeze, so nothing wrong with that :) Bottom line is the shorts will suffer.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We have a perfect storm coming.

    1. Predators are getting in, they smell the fear of their victims. Price is getting up.
    2. Big reveal on 7/27. They will tell the world. The world will be wowed. Price is racing to record highs every days.
    3. People learn about Elon and all he is and did. Hype is building, a buble is forming.
    4. Pessimistic views are now replaced with over optimitic views. Price has no connection with reality.
    5. I hope you sold just a bit before #4.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Was something announced for that date? I missed it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No. Not yet.

    But I saw two clues so far, 1. a tweet by @jason Twitter / Jason: Looks like @wsj believes t ans 2. I saw in a post here that SSL #4 got a delivery date for the week of 7/29.

    Other clue is they like to do event on Fridays. (I guess because they can drink) ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually, what happens is that the shorter is FORCED to buy the stock due to margin requirements. It doesn't matter if he's got nerves of steel unless he's got the cash to back it up.

    From http://wiki.fool.com/Short_squeeze:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But (ref. my post above) are there not some short-sellers (institutions) who are so financially strong that they can "ride out" a squeeze? And do we know what hides behind the 23M shorts number? Could be many smaller shorts (who will be forced to cover when they get margin calls) but could also be some big institutions with the liquidity to "not cover"?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    :scared: Wait, I can only drink on Fridays?! Crap, there go my plans for the week!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My guess, and this is just a guess. True investors would not touch this stock on the short side even with a ten foot pole. They may short on down market, but I don't think anyone with a slight notion of financial common sense would short this company at this point in time. So, no strong institutions are short. If some of them are, they have stop loss. These traders are not driven by sentiments, maths and analysis is their tools.

    Individual investors (let's call them idiots) are the one shorting this stock. They have no idea what's coming. Just like the same idiots bought in the internet bubble, the housing bubble, the gold bubble, etc...

    The world will never run out of idiots, they are our #1 cause of GDP growth.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Idiots with a jobs yes, idiots with inherited money or lottery winners. People laying in their hammock all day drinking beer and watching their stock price going up, up and up don't contribute much to GDP :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes and no. Yes there are institutions that are that strong. But those types of investors have very stringent rules for trading and will cut their losses at some predetermined level regardless of what the believe. It's called risk management.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Post of the day!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If everything goes according to plan, I might do more of that soon ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do large funds carry shorts in general or could you assume the shorts are more comprised of individuals? I'm wondering if we could see a higher sloped spike over several days or will it only be for one day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There is 27m shares shorted. Average volume is 1.2m/day. It would take a while for the shorts to buy 27m share, add a mania to that and you have a recepe for disaster.

    It will not last a few days, it will be long and painful for the shorts and long, stressful, amusing, exciting for longs.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Steph, please don't post your own guesses as fact. Sometimes it's hard even for us regulars here to keep with what's fact and what's speculation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That wasn't a guess. They are facts.

    The tweet is there, no? The #4 SSL getting his car week of 7/29 is not a guess, it's a fact. (or maybe it ain't true?)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Source?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, I mean your source for this "fact":

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here's my entire post:

    That was a purely speculative post and you only question about point number 2?

    I think the other points were much wilder ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you, then let's please not state them as facts and let's move on.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Allrighy then.

    The fact is delivery start on the week of 7/29. Will we have a big event between now and then, I speculate that we will.

    Will it be on the 27th? Probably not, that's just a guess.

    Will it wow the world? It did wow me and I don't even have all the pieces yet.

    I do like to speculate, do I.... well, it'll be over soon. On the 27th. ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Does anyone have the slightest idea what is up with the stock for the past week? This upward movement doesn't feel like a squeeze, and doesn't have the volume to say it is. Now today we're gapping down and back to this 3-4% bouncing movement. What gives?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a rumor floating around that Tesla is delaying some deliveries that were originally planned for August by a month or so. This is just a rumor at this point, but with how much the stock has been up, it seems like a good opportunity to take profits. I took a tiny bit off the table yesterday as soon as I heard the rumor just incase the media picked it up and ran with it.

    I'm not certain that this is what is driving the stock down today, I just know it is why I sold some shares, so it is possible.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you have any sources for the rumors? links?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All I know is I'm officially pissed. Nothing about this stock makes sense. If Tesla is successful next year (Which seems very likely), the stock deserves to be $100+ yet it's floundering around the 30 area, and experiencing so many freak drops. Rises make sense. These bouts of "Uncertainty" (Which I believe are manipulation of some kind, really piss me off. I will not sell, still, I am pissed. Here is some fun math that I'm using. 20000 x 65000 x .25 + 5000 x 120000 x .25 +200million for power trains 200mil for EV credits = 870 000 000 (20) = 17,400,000,000. Something isn't right here. I suppose producing a product that clearly has demand isn't good enough to justify a stock rise? Where are analysts? I'm not just talking about the stock dropping at the moment. I'm wondering what the deal is with the short interest increasing, and no comments from analysts emerging. Doesn't MS who has a price of $50 only expect 2k cars to be delivered? When it's becoming increasingly likely they will deliver 5k cars, the estimate must go up - Right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA is always baffling. 3 days of steady "Woohoo, we love Tesla!" and this morning "Augh! Run away!"

    *shrug*, people are crazy.
    �
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