Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 12

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oil money
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dont think so.

    Remember that the only truly renewable resource we have is idiots. And they do multiply fast.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The exact premise of "Idiocracy", our potential future.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That movie almost made me actually sad even though it is pretty funny. people are dum
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heinlein's Razor! Just learned about this yesterday. Funny how things like that work out.

    I think downward pressure on the stock is only delaying the inevitable so I invite it. Can't wait for the day/week/month when Tesla absolutely explodes gaining double digit percents back to back to back.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now with the Europe thigny almost over, our bi-polar market should start his euphoria phase.

    Until the next scare...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While there may be other rumors elsewhere, I can't seem to give much credit to this ..... ehmmm.... article. Waste of space imho.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like a hype piece for Nova mining.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it would be great. But this appears to have started with one blogger & now is being picked up and repeated. I think the most likely outcome is a little flurry of activity and (unless there is something substantiating the rumor) will just die down again. (Only to be repeated on a slow news day.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, but the news is coming out from business wire, a 'you know who' company.

    Rumors are not always true, but they always have a goal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And I'm guessing the goal was to get some hits. #working.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My understanding is that the insiders own a controlling share of Tesla. Apple could buy a lot of shares if it wanted to, driving up the price, but it cannot buy a controlling interest if the inner circle does not want to sell.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Huh? The companies have nothing in common. I'd be horrified if Apple bought Tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Talk about manipulation? Was up 8% in the am, and is now flat. Wow! This is crazy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I could not agree more. Anyone who knows me in person knows that I may be the most anti apple person on the planet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nothing in common?

    - screen
    - high tech
    - 'cool' products I want to have
    - cool design
    ...

    'The model S is an iPad with wheels' someone said
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not even anti-Apple, the companies are in completely different lines of business. The issues a car company faces have nothing to do with the issues a company like Apple faces (shipping, sourcing, parts, manufacturing, etc all all completely different). The last thing I want is Apple, who knows nothing about building cars, to control Tesla.

    They're both, arguably, innovators in their space, but that doesn't mean there's any synergy in their businesses.
    Ug, yea, the screen is nice, but it's a small part of the overall car. Let's get real here, the screen is flashy and catchy, but they hired Franz and Gilbert to make a car. They didn't hire people to create a rolling iPad.

    Would you want a carpet manufacturer to buy Tesla because the car has carpet? That'd be just as ridiculous as merging with Apple due to the screen.

    What's after that? Microsoft buys GM, HP merges with Fiat?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    High Margins. Check
    High tech. Check.
    High demand for lithium Ion. Check.
    Game changer. Check.
    Putting competition to shame against all odds. Check.
    Under appreciated.. Check.
    Ignored as legitimate competition just as rimm did to Apple. CHECK.

    Sounds like Apple and Tesla do have a lot on common. Also, both will gain a lot from a decline in the scost of batteries.

    I guess GM and Ford are the new RIMM?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On a serious note though, what the heck was this morning about?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Over reactive investors.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just watched the Bloomberg video on Tesla...much seemed to be based on his "interview" with ONE person who owns a roadster in a parking lot. The girl jumps on be bandwagon, and doesn't seem to really have researched anything, but jumps on what was said by the guy in the parking lot. Kind of reminds me of the Eagles song: "The blond comes on at 5 with a gleam in her eye..." At least he said he talked to TWO people who took test drives and really liked the car. It seemed like they based their opinions on not a lot of research. Plus...they said something to the fact that in 7 years with 100,000 miles the BMW 7 series would have a residual value of $40,000. SORRY.. but I have been driving BMW's since 1984 and love them and presently have one 10 months old, but I have NEVER seen a 7 series that is 7 - 8 years old with 100K miles on it that has anywhere near that residual value. PLEASE Bloomberg be factual, not sensational in your reporting! Here is the link:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/power-shortage-what-is-tesla-up-against-RSt2UdJ1RSmihKw48vYbFQ.html
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blonde who comes on at five. She can tell you 'bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Originally the �Smart Money� thought Tesla was just EV enthusiasts' folly. �Let's short the stock and take the fools' money!�

    But now, it's looking like the company could actually be successful... VERY successful.

    So, what is the "Smart Money" to do?

    Talk about �Obama-cars�.
    Buy all sorts of nonsense reporting.
    Generate lots of disinformation and repeat, repeat, repeat.

    All of this is to give them time to get out of their short positions. And, in order to do that, they need to get the small investors to short the stock. Otherwise we would have the �short-squeeze� now and they would lose a ton of money.

    As soon as the �Smart Money� changes their short positions to long, convincing regular investors to pick up the short bag, we'll have our short-squeeze. We Tesla believers will also make money because we'll get to ride along on the coattails of the Smart Money's market manipulation.

    Just be patient and enjoy the ride. Pick up some more long positions if you can. Today's prices will seem like a real bargain before long. End of the year perhaps?

    All of this is just opinion, of course, and not meant to be any sort of financial advise.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apple will not buy Tesla. It makes no business sense whatsoever. And as investors we shouldn't want this to happen. If Apple buys Tesla we will all lose our shares and in exchange get what? $60? I'd rather keep my shares and wait for the day the are worth $250. The path to maximum return for shareholders is for Tesla to remain independent.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Almost as crazy as worrying about daily price movements in a volatile stock :rolleyes:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't get too excited about the stock action today. TSLA was trading in sympathy with Ford and GM. Nothing to see here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can't really use the term "crazy" to describe the wild fluctuations of a stock that has ALWAYS fluctuated wildly. And really, how "wild" is a one-dollar bounce up then down? What would be really "crazy," given the history of this stock, would be a day when it does not bounce up and down a dollar or more.

    Apple and Tesla are both innovative tech companies. Apple has always been the minority computer, and Tesla is (and will be for a few years) building minority cars.

    But the similarities end there.

    There are no similarities in the products, the marketing, the service philosophy, the treatment of employees, the attitude toward customers, the commitment to the environment, nothing at all. Jobs famously gave nothing to charity and did not sign the Buffett pledge. Musk does and did. Jobs set out to make a bucket of money by selling really cool, well-designed, excellent products. Musk set out to make money by selling an excellent product that will make the world a better place.

    I think and hope that Musk would/will not sell Tesla. He's young and has a vision of an electric America. Selling the company would be to abandon that vision to someone else who would compromise or discard it if they thought another model would make them more money.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Trying to find reason in the stock movement so far is like finding shapes in the clouds, you'll see what you want to see. For the stock on a given day, roll a die and pick:

    - Tracking the DOW
    - Tracking auto vendors X/Y/Z
    - Bouncing off a 50 day average (or 200 day average)
    - Point to some random published article
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I for one was very suspicious of Citizen-T's stock movement calls, they are always way too accurate. So I emailed some old friends that are retired from the KGB. Turns out that Jack Daniels Honey Whiskey is very popular in Siberia! Who knew!

    So anyway after sending a bottle via FedEx they hacked into Mr. T's computer. Finding some interesting emails' they tracked down an IP address to an off shore account. A very complicated paper trail finally revealed his true source.

    crystal-ball.jpg

    EDIT: My friend in Siberia just emailed me a picture of him celebrating with the Jack Daniels Honey Whiskey I sent him.

    Jack Girl.jpg

    Yeah, he looks a lot different than he did back in the 70's. He say's he had a few cosmetic things done but when he showed Putin. Well let's just say Putin got really upset.

    Putin 1.jpg

    Well that's how he ended up in Siberia. He says he's not very happy there. That it's so cold everybody suffers from shrinkage.

    I told him he's got only himself to blame. That he should of kept his junk in the frunk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Where did you find the 8%? NASDAQ's shows the high/low as 32.8/31.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wonder what process will be the pinch point at 100,000. What equipment will they first have to expand to increase throughput?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My guess would be the robots for painting and assembly. They can only go so fast.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If it's the human processes, you can easily hire more people without adding equipment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree - but people can be added as the line grows. Eventually, though, there will be a current constraint that dictates more equipment be added. I think the paint is a likely candidate.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lol.

    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was thinking the same thing...High volume production facilities get pinched in a few places, all of which are easily mitigated if you have the funds to mitigate the risk.

    Places that I'd spend a few extra dollars to ensure the lines ran smoothly at all hours of the year:

    1. Agility - Like replacement parts and engineers on hand that can switch out long lead parts for heavy machinery very quickly.
    2. Stamina - As in, the ability for the line to run just as well in the 98 hour as it did in the 1st hour.
    3. Replication - Bringing up a 2nd, 3rd or 4th line to operate in a more efficient manner than the prior line.
    4. Prediction - Algorithms are key to hitting your KPI's.
    5. Morale - Nothing else is as important as the health and well being of your human components. High morale can achieve any goal. High pay and long hours only will get you so far.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    and 6. Single Points of Failure, with identified mitigation
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But the equipment can only run 24 hours a day. Once it's running constantly, you'd have to add more. Then there's this: Maybe you could fill a shift with people who like to work at night, but it will impact morale if people have to work unpleasant hours. And swing shifts are well known to be both physically and emotionally damaging. So you might choose not to add a third shift, and add another line instead.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are correct, but I was envisioning adding more people to the manual parts of a single line of production to enable them to keep up with the robots. The original question was about adding equipment. (I seriously doubt that the stamping presses will ever be stressed until the production area fills the entire factory.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Without adding more body assembly and/or painting robots, I doubt you could keep up to the stamping presses. However, more people would likely be necessary if the body assembly robots were working at full capacity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a substantial number of qualified folks around the Fremont factory who can man additional shifts/assembly lines. I think Tesla brought back less than a tenth of the NUMMI workforce who used to churn out half-a-million Corollas and Tacomas per year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, the wall would presumably be equipment. Tesla uses a small part of a factory that produced nearly 500,000 cars, so it seems reasonable to think that they'd need to fill more of the factory to start producing in large quantities and thus would need machines to fill those other parts of the factory.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't forget all of the drive trains.

    How much profit could the Supercharger stations make?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The factory and equipment that they got at a huge discount are probably worth a pretty penny. Their patents are probably their most valuable asset. Factoring future growth into the stock price will probably add a couple bucks to the stock price too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not sure the supercharger stations will make money (at least not from charging). However, the supercharging stations are what will turn the Model S into a real car acceptable by a majority of the public.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I suspect it will be quite a while before more than a token amount is paid out as dividends. Tesla needs to keep most growth capital in the company. They have very ambitious plans. I am happy with that. What do others think?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apple did well not giving out dividends for years. Now that the bean-counters have taken over, I'm not so certain what will happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dividend is crazy talk at this point.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think so. Tesla is not making money yet, so if they paid out dividends today it would have to be from the DOE loan or something like that. I think we would see even more shorts because Tesla clearly doesn't know what they are doing financially. In two years maybe they could pay out a small dividend if all loans have been paid off and there's no need for huge investments
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After talking with employees (at the LA drive) about Elon's vision for the BluegenIII and the Roadster 3.0 it made me even more convinced this company is a complete gamechanger.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dividends are (or should be) paid when the company has more cash than investment opportunities that meet or beat the market-wide risk-adjusted ROE. Utilities are great examples. Dividend-paying stock is not generally a growth play.

    Given the huge capital requirements that Tesla will have as it ramps up production, stores and service centers, and I think it's very safe to say we won't be getting dividend checks from TSLA any time before 2030.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. I don't really expect or want dividends paid on the stock I have if that means it will hurt Tesla or slow their growth.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto. I bought the stock for growth, not dividends.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have no expectation of dividends for a very long time. When and if Tesla becomes a major auto company, and the market can no longer absorb growth, then dividends. Until then, they'll use the profits for growth. Of course, once the loan is paid off, and the company is showing a profit, they might elect to return some of it as dividends, but that seems the wrong way to go.

    As for the 25% profit per car, that number may not be written in stone. Economies of scale could increase profit margin, and lowering the price once they are financially stable could decrease profit margin and increase sales. Musk wants to fill the roads with EVs. He could choose to trim the profit margin to make the cars more attractive to buyers.

    And anyway, I wonder if that 25% profit per car is margin over materials and labor, or if it includes the cost of R&D amortized over the production life of the model. I suspect the former. That R&D will make the next car cheaper to design, and the next car after that cheaper yet, but they'll probably reflect that in the price of the car rather than in exorbitant profit margins.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hi, it's me again, the guy who thinks TSLA will change the world ;)

    But before that happen, they need to sell cars, many cars...

    So I did some maths this morning, based on what Mr Passin said they could produce 100k vehicules/year without stretching the curent setup. That news by itself is interesting. I was assuming 20k cars/year and 25% GM when simply using price/sale valuation.

    So it was 20k (cars) * $70k (average sale) = $1.4b / 105m share = $13.3 * 10 (my growth ratio) = $133 / share

    With the new 100k cars target, I get: $665 using my 10 factor and $1130 if I use the curent factor of 17.

    Who said they were over valued?

    My valuation is now somewhere between $133 & $1130.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apple's stock isn't even over $1,000 per share. If Tesla's stock is over $100 in a few years, I'lll be really happy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The share price is not the best indicator when taking it alone. Market cap is a better indicator.

    At $1000, cap for Tesla would be valued about the same as Facebook. I prefer betting on a company that actually produce hard things rather then betting on a company any smart kid could kill any moment.

    My numbers are facts. Cold facts. If Tesla acheive the numbers quoted above, this is the math to come to price/sales ratio.

    Math is math. Can't argue with it. Except for the ratio, market will decide the ratio but it's safe to assume it will be high if they acheive the 100k cars target.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Production capability is really not the bottleneck. Sales are the bottleneck. If they started selling so many cars that production could not keep up, then it would be easy to raise the capital to expand production capacity. If they sold so many cars that the Freemont plant was too small, they'd be able to raise the money to buy another plant, based on such high consumer demand.

    No. The hurdle is changing the way people think about transportation, so that they see EVs as being practical, and then designing and building an EV that people can afford.

    Note: I consider EVs eminently practical. Most people do not yet. So when calculating the value of Tesla, plant capacity is not the most important factor. Public attitudes and the cost of EVs (which means, largely, the cost of batteries) vs. the cost of gas cars (which means largely the cost of gasoline) are what matters. I'm bullish on Tesla. But the changes that have to happen will happen gradually. I think 5% to 10% growth per year in stock price is a reasonable expectation.

    Note also that expensive gasoline and expensive batteries gives the economic advantage to gasoline even if the lifetime cost of ownership is lower for the EV, because many people cannot afford the high initial capital cost and the attendant interest payments. Many people will accept a higher total cost if the cash flow is lower: I.e. if the cost of gasoline is less than the interest payments on the higher purchase price. This is why it costs more to live if you are poor, since you are forced into lifestyle choices that are cheaper up front even though more expensive in the long run. This is an important issue for the widespread acceptance of EVs as long as batteries are expensive. And Tesla will have to get the annual maintenance cost well below $600!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree with much of what you said here, but the 5% to 10% number is way too low. The reason is because the driving force behind TSLA for the next several years will be multiple expansion, not additional sales. I think that all Tesla has to do is deliver on the plan that they have in place already (no surprises) and the market will reward it a higher multiple with each milestone. If my projections are right, we could see TSLA at $250 in 5 years. I did a lot of work to come up with that 250 number which I won't bore you with here, but if people are interested I could share some of the math later.

    The bottom line is if I wanted 5% or 10% a year I'd invest in Verizon. TSLA is a super-high-octane growth stock, if it isn't delivering 20% or more a year, then that means something is going terribly wrong fundamentally.

    My usual disclaimer: all this is assumed in a vacuum and Elon getting hit by a bus, another serious recession, or a zombie apocalypse could change numbers significantly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gathering steam at that 200-day as I suspected. Let's not fall through the floor, need to hold the line here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The 50, 200 and daily are all converging, this should be interesting. Note: I stopped out of the trading portion of my shares last week. I still hold quite a few long term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed. I think the news cycle suggests that we are consolidating here for a move higher, but there is always a chance that we fall through. I placed my bets for moving higher, will be biting my nails for the next day or two while we see how this plays out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ford, Other Carmakers Get Good News, As Study Says Electric Vehicle Sales To Surge GM F TM - Investors.com

    (emphasis mine)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep Daniel. You're obviously a bad risk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Been following this thread for a while now. I know nothing about investing ,but will toss my thoughts into the bin.
    Firstly, tesla is a risky investment. BMW , Audi ...big, successful carmakers are scaling back EV plans or putting on hold. These companies did not get to where they are by making poor business decisions. However, like most people here ( it seems anyhow), I like to cheer for the underdog, I would like to invesT with my heart not always my brain, and tesla seems to strike a 'visionary and green' chord with me. I feel tesla will teeter along going through the trials and tribulations of any new company. There will be bad reviews of the model s from some, there will be 'real' issues which will have to get worked out...but over the next several years, they have a dam good shot at succeeding fiscally, and more importantly transformatively. That is why I am in for long haul.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Your conservatism keeps us all grounded; keep it coming. And your investment strategy with respect to TSLA sounds like the appropriate strategy for you given your apparent risk tolerance. I think you'll do just fine with your 200 shares. =)


    Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am fairly risk averse. So why did I make significant investments in volative Tesla securities? It's because from an engineering perspective, it looks like a very, VERY good bet. Yes, there is a huge negative bias against EV's in the general public & many of the EV's prior to now have not helped that perception.

    But the Model S, even with a $57,400 entry price, has changed the game. Most folks haven't realised it yet. That's why the stock is still an incredible bargain.

    And, Tesla is executing the perfect strategy in placing stores in high volume, upper middle class venues where the entry prices are not much of a barrier. But the main purpose of these stores is education -- not sales (at least at this time). Tesla already has a 10+ month backlog of orders if the manufacturing ramp-up goes flawlessly.
    While Tesla is building the cars for all of us "early adoptors", they are educating the next stage of more general customers.

    The truth is the truth. For me, there are two burning questions...

    1) When will the general public catch on?

    2) How fast can Tesla ramp up production?

    Steph is absolutely correct with his math and outlook. After a couple of taxi drivers get their Model S's and start talking about how much money they are saving, how long will it be before other taxi drivers see that they are at a big disadvantage with their ICE vehicles. When that happens, it won't be long before the common wisdom is that you can't compete as a taxi driver without a good EV. Low battery? If you're a taxi company with a fleet of Model S's, your drivers can stop by your center and get a quick 2 minute battery swap. Lot's of economic possibilities in this one area.

    The market hates inefficiencies and can be brutally quick in fixing them. There is a big wave of "creative destruction" coming in the automobile industry. Most of the players are still looking inland and don't have a clue what's behind them and coming fast.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Could not agree more.

    When a game changer like the model S is reveled, it takes sometime to get into people's head. The then have to digest and understand the change. But when it's done, word usually spread pretty quickly, virally.

    When this happen, hold on to your seat, the stock will go to it's true value. And it's much higher than where we are.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That's life in the fast lane. We have to keep a pretty tight rein on the threads or they go massively off-topic and simultaneously we get all kinds of duplicate topics going.

    Sorry for the detour.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a stockholder and S reservation holder I am concerned with the insider selling . . . assuage my concern
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is your concern specifically about Tesla or regarding any company where you invest? And if just Tesla, could you explain your concern further?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems Herbert Kohler gifted 3.2 Million Tesla shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The plumbing guy? Gifted them to whom?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think he's referring to the Herbert Kohler on Tesla's board--VP at Daimler. And their recent transfer of shares to some Abu Dhabi sovereign-wealth fund.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was referring to Deeppak, Gilbert, Straubel, Whitaker, Musk (Kimbal) - all officers or directors. All with sales in the last 6 months. At the company I used to work for, all senior executives had to have a multiple of their salary invested in company stock (multiple was a function of their level in the company). Three of these people appear to hold fewer than 1000 shares - including the CFO!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bugs was way ahead of his time.

    Troll Season.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Where are you reading this, leaper?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I saw that - but I also saw that the last three months were at a slower rate than the last 12, that many of the sales were automatic, etc. For the automatic sales (someone more knowledgeable, please correct), my assumption is these were predetermined sales (10b-5?) so that no insider knowledge could influence. And I also assume that vesting shares could be part of this -- or selling to buy up more options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    4 officers and 2 directors are in Rule 10b5-1 plans - it is all legit. That is not my point. These guys all deserve to make millions when the company is successful (profitable). I just wish they were all on the same page relative to "skin in the game". Elon takes $1 salary and has millions of shares. He is committed. He is the reason I am a fan. A direct report who gets $100,000 signing bonus and makes $340,000 salary, who only owns 200 shares has less $$ at stake than the reservation payment for sig S. It is just one of the things I consider when investing. All of this is public record.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow!

    I'm gonna give him millions of shares of my company, make him CEO and double his salary if necessary so he works for me.

    Anyone's got his number?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, it was amusing in the investors meeting (or maybe it was the printed report) where it says they pay Elon the California required minimum wage and he then turns around and refuses it.

    Definitely reinforces the fact he's fully committed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There have only been 4 inside trades in Q2. Not seeing the issue here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm perhaps not reading this correctly, but the numbers for G.A.J. don't seem to add up between March and May.

    Probably many have stock options that don't appear on that table unless they are exercised, and except for the H. Kohler number (which was, I think, the one that was in the news and seemed to go back and forth), to me it looks like always. JB for example is usually selling some amount. It's probably income for them, not so much investment.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That sounds like it would be fun to read (or listen to). You wouldn't happen to have a link to where I could find that, would you?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Umm... it may be different in Elon's case but, in general, I view the "I, the CEO, am taking home a salary of just $1" with a healthy dose of skepticism having experienced this with not-so-committed CEOs in the past.

    At their income level, CEOs will keep little of any W2 wages and are obviously far better off with the (taxes-fixed-at-15%) long term capital gains from stock option sales.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Edit: found a copy at http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/0x0xS1193125-12-162563/1318605/filing.pdf

    The bit about compensation is on page 22 and reads:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can you guide to the salaries you mention?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Actually, looks more conventional than a Leaf - more like a Toyota Matrix or a Prius V. A rather decent-looking commuter EV with the MB badge IMO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    vfx - look in their proxy statement for the annual meeting
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In case anybody with Level 2 trading (Naked Put Writing) still wants to get into Tesla cheaply, the Dec $28 Puts should sell for about $4.00 today. Come Dec 22, 2012, you either get to keep the $4.00 or you buy Tesla stock at an effective price of $24.00.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for pointing this out.
    I picked up a couple of different puts after checking the options page.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not exactly - basically you are selling an obligation. If the stock is below $28/share you will need to give the holder of the putoption $28 per share ($2800). Since he paid you $4 per share for this guarantee, your net cost is $24/share. He bought a guaranteed minimum sale price, if the stock stays above 28 the holder of the putoption will not exercise his option (since he can get more on the open market). At the December end date your obligation ends and you keep the $400 free and clear.

    You can always close you position early, but that is where it gets complicated ;-). I'm not an expert, but think what I have said is correct. I have primarily bought calls in the past.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NO, THAT'S WHERE IT GETS EASY: You buy the option (hopefully you set a limit price). Your buying the option cancells the option you sold in the first place. NIL - Nothing - Nada. Your profit is the difference between the 4$ you got and whatever you have to pay to buy the option.

    If the price of the underlying goes down a lot, than the put option will go up and you might take a loss, because you would have to pay a lot more that 4$ to buy the option. Likewise if you just sit it out, you will have to buy the underlying for 28$ even if you could buy them on the market for a lot less. You also lose.

    If the price of the underlying stays the same, then you profit from the time decay of the option. Options tend to lose in value as time goes by.





    I hope you are not risking your shirt. Please play it safe until you are an expert. I read that about 80 % of the people are loosing money with options. Please be careful and control your risk.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, you need to start with Level 1 trading. That's the ability to sell Covered Calls. That's usually considered safe, since what you're doing is taking some money up front (by selling the Calls) for the obligation to sell the stock if it reaches the "Strike Price." You can only sell the calls if you already own the stock. So, it's kind of like a delayed sell on stock you already own.

    Let's take TSLA as an example. Let's say you bought a few months back at $28. You decide you want to take some profits if the stock bumps up again. You could just put in a Sell Limit order for, say, $38, and wait to Tesla to hit that. If it does, you get $10 profit. If it doesn't no harm, no foul. Anyone can do this.

    But, if you instead sold the Sept $38 Call, today you would have gotten $0.90/share. If the stock doesn't reach $38 by Sept 22, 2012, then you keep that $0.90. If it does hit $38, then most likely the person who bought the call would want to exercise it, which means he'll buy your shares at $38. Now your profit is $10.90 instead of $10 without the call. So, either way it's a win-win, which is why it's the first step in options trading.

    It's not all roses, though. The downside with selling Covered Calls is that you're agreeing today to sell the stock when it hits that price. If the stock continues to rise past that price, you won't get that additional money. But, you're not going to lose any money, you're just potentially not going to make as much. Another downside is that while you can cancel your limit order at any time without consequence, to "cancel" the Covered Calls means you have to buy them back. If the stock has risen in the meantime (even if it's not yet at the strike price), you'll pay more to buy those Calls back than you sold them for.

    Anyway, if you want to play, you need to start out small and safe(ish). See about getting Level 1 trading to sell covered calls on stock you own.
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)