1/1/2015
guest I know exactly that feeling. I get it even when at a minimum long. Definitely not alone on that one�
1/1/2015
guest I sold some July11 250 calls yesterday. I have them covered with Jan15 250 calls. Just looking to scalp some extra cash while I wait to roll those forward.�
1/1/2015
guest Bull market
Are we witnessing one of the greatest bull markets in history?
The equity-only put/call ratio is hitting extreme levels. In fact, it's nearing one of its lowest-ever levels. On Wednesday, the put/call ratio closed at 0.38. Since 2003, the ratio has only dropped lower than that on six occasions. The recent divergence between the two is absolutely mesmerizing
�
1/1/2015
guest What does that mean?�
1/1/2015
guest Gauge for market sentiment. Lower the ratio, more bullish 'the market'. However, like everything, contrarians look at it as an indicator as well. Feeling it is time to buy (high ratio) when everyone is buying puts and time to sell (low ratio) when everyone else is buying calls.
But as the ratio declines it is suppose to indicate a bullish sentiment. Auzie's chart indicates very bullish sentiment.�
1/1/2015
guest SPY is a fund that mimics S&P 500 performance. S&P 500 is index that represents 500 companies listed on NSYE and Nasdaq
The graph shows SPY rise and rise from 2009 (value of 70 at the bottom) to now, value of 196.26.
The over laid graph shows put/call ratio of equities. This ratio gauges market sentiment. The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of traded put options with the number of traded call options.
Market seems to be happy:biggrin: This guy explains it better
�
1/1/2015
guest So it's an overall market sentiment, not a tsla specific sentiment? The contrarian side if me says look out though.
I guess for the technical reader it means that the market is going to move pretty good one way or the other depending on your view.�
1/1/2015
guest Tesla is a business that is very sensitive to market sentiment.
The market sentiment is very real and not in any way connected to technical analysis.
What I see on the graphs is that the businesses are doing good. US economy is thriving. Companies are making profits.
Imo saying I will take a contrarian approach and sell when everyone is buying is likely to fail. There is more chance of success if one looks at multiple economic indicators and makes his/her decision based on multiple indicators and data.
It also helps a lot if one is born under a lucky star:biggrin:.�
1/1/2015
guest
The way I look at it is if TSLA had a big run up (such as this week) for no real big reason (such as this week), then selling calls is a way of locking in that big profit you made on TSLA. Since TSLA ran up for no very good reason as much as it did, then you should expect it to pullback (which it did). Since it pulled back, the calls that you sold allowed you to minimize that loss and to keep all of the gain that you made. Now you can use that gain to reload on TSLA since it pulled back and all...
On the other hand if it goes up even more, then remember that you already made a big gain and those calls you sold added to your gain on top of that. All you did was capped your upside, since you did not believe that TSLA deserves to go any higher on the somewhat insignificant news that pushed TSLA up too much this week; up 10%.
Like I said this strategy is not for everyone. I sold some SPWR $32.50's a couple weeks back, and had to roll them to $33, and then to $34. But this week it went to $40 and I had my shares called away for $34. Missed out on a big gain, but I was long SPWR elsewhere and have huge long positions in other solar stocks and TSLA, so my portfolio did really good this week anyway. All I did was limit my upside a little bit, but if the week was flat or down for solars then the short calls would have been a great idea.
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The reason I say this is because IMO SCTY is looking for a relatively large share offering to get started on the manufacturing facility and for other corporate purposes, since their operations and business model bleed a lot of cash, and will continue doing so for the foreseeable future. For this reason, I am not a fan of going long SCTY after this big run up.
I am not a fan of shorting it either, since I think that Elon and the investment banks collude to move stock prices (both TSLA and SCTY) in order to get favorable terms when they raise capital. I suspect that what they do is potentially illegal, but it is impossible to prove and the SEC would never look into this, especially since everyone else does this. The whole game on Wall St. is rigged.
When I bought those SCTY puts yesterday, I was watching price action very closely to derive an exit point. I noticed that as soon as SCTY would start going down, some MM would start putting in big blocking bids to prevent the stock from falling into a downward spiral. I feel like MM are working hard to prop up the stock price of SCTY in order to raise capital on more favorable terms. This is exactly what Adam Jonas did (probably in collaboration with MS's MM's) to prop up TSLA prior to GF capital raise.
Elon plays the game too: he knew that they needed a lot of cash for GF, so he guided Q4 very low and then pulled every trick in the book to get to 6900 deliveries, even though they produced 500 less cars than they sold. He then instructed Jerome to say 6900 at Detroit Auto Show to get the stock moving.
I am fairly certain that Elon, Goldman, MS, etc. are all working together to make Elon's Earth saving mission become a reality. I am not going to argue against this, because it is a very noble cause and there is literally no other way to save the world than by playing this kind of game that is borderline illegal. Everybody on Wall St. does something similar so if Elon just sat quiet and went about doing his thing by himself then he would get clobbered. You have to work the system to get what you want.
This is my honest opinion, and I could be very wrong; but there are just way too many "coincidences" happening in the past. In any case, I am going to go find some flame retardant suit to put on for all of the flack I am about to get for posting this :scared:�
1/1/2015
guest Interesting fight to hold 230, I wonder if it had anything to do with options expiring. I had sold a few 230s, so it was interesting being on the other side for once.�
1/1/2015
guest After watching todays price action I got more and more confident about next week.
I bought some calls with different strike prices from 220$, 230$, 240$, 250$ that expire in sept.
Let's see next week if that was a good move
Good luck to all with your investments and have a nice weekend!�
1/1/2015
guest Sounds good. Thanks for the info!
I can't wait to see how many cars/week Fremont will be producing with 2 lines. With higher production numbers and a prototype Model X likely for this Fall, I think the last half of this year is going to see a big swing upwards in share price. That being said, this week was a great week! :smile:�
1/1/2015
guest It's been kind of quiet the past few days, so I'll throw out a question: What are the chances Tesla will break ground on the first gigafactory site by the end of this month (June)?�
1/1/2015
guest I am not aware of Tesla ever making one of their promised deadlines yet, and a site has yet to be announced, so I'd say that the odds of breaking ground this month are somewhere between zero and none. My big hope is that the lack of breaking ground doesn't send the stock in to a big dive. I do expect a good positive bump once ground finally is broken though.�
1/1/2015
guest If the stock was stalled or falling then a groundbreaking photo op might be in the cards, but I rather have them focused on getting the factory retooled & restarted without any glitches ASAP.�
1/1/2015
guest I sold some calls tonight. Here is an idea, maybe we could establish direct TSLA exchange here, by pass brokers:biggrin:.�
1/1/2015
guest Looow frequency trading. We need a buttonwood tree for all that.�
1/1/2015
guest Another question, how do we know they haven't already broken ground? Maybe they don't want to bother with a press release etc until they are farther along?�
1/1/2015
guest It's mentioned by Elon in shareholder meeting.
�
1/1/2015
guest maybe..
when I was in Las Vegas service an employee said they were waiting for a big announcement in the next week or two internally. His friend was involved in some design stuff for the Gfactory. That was on May 27th.�
1/1/2015
guest I have been wondering the same thing. I bought some short term calls last week in anticipation, but I want to get out of most of it before it becomes news. I'm afraid of both Tesla time and a possible let down. They were doing quite well until late this afternoon, when everything went to crap. Still, I'm up, but just not nearly as up. I'm thinking the market will sidestep a bit but Tesla will go back up in anticipation of the gigafactory groundbreaking - if nothing else, the announcement of where for the media to show up for the groundbreaking.
I think if Tesla doesn't make that announcement or delays it, we are in for a world of hurt.�
1/1/2015
guest We're down $6.41 in AH. Just a fluke transaction?
-----
Never mind. Google quotes is all messed up and shows the day as positive.�
1/1/2015
guest It isn't just Google. Stockcharts.com shows a big transaction at the end of the day (10 min period chart): But my schwab shows it down. Dang it am I happy or sad!
�
1/1/2015
guest Google glitch made me do a double-take as well. Yahoo ticker has it right, it seems.�
1/1/2015
guest how did you get stockcharts to be intraday? My only options are daily or weekly.�
1/1/2015
guest Pay $19/month. Very handy.
It is now "fixed" on stockcharts.com, but still shows some trades happening up at $238.�
1/1/2015
guest Google has finally fixed their charts too. the order was put in at 16:34EST for the 238 trade... according to Google that is. Some seller must be REALLY happy and some buyer must be REALLY pissed... Since all after hours trades have to go in as market orders don't they?�
1/1/2015
guest All after hours trades have to go in as limit orders, you can't market order the after hours.�
1/1/2015
guest Relax only 35k shares moved�
1/1/2015
guest Mershaw can you explain briefly this market versus limit orders thing ? If that is briefly possible.
It appears for the incident in question that the last trade before close - which I assume was at 16:00EST - was as shown currently at $232.50.
But someone's AH trade got picked up at $238 at 16:34EST ! But they were expecting to buy in around $232.50. How come they got stiffed at $238 ?
What should they have done differently ? THNX�
1/1/2015
guest Usually when there is an after hours trade that is way off, the assumption is that it was an order during regular hours that was recorded late.�
1/1/2015
guest It had been some hours before close that it last traded at $238, so I don't think that can be the explanation.
@toyolla2: A limit order is straightforward; if the order can be filled at the limit you specifiy (or better), the trade will happen, otherwise it will wait. So if you say "sell at $238", if there are buyers who are prepared to buy for that (or more) the trade will happen.
A market order is paradoxically less straightforward. If you look at the quoted prices, there's a bid (the price at which someone will buy) and a offer (the price at which someone will sell), and they're never the same! That's because if they were the same, the transaction would have happened already. When you place a market buy (resp. sell), you are saying that you will accept the offer (resp. bid) that's currently outstanding. But by the time your trade gets to the top of the queue, those numbers might have changed. This is particularly true of thinly traded stocks and after-hours trades. But even during normal hours it can happen. Suppose you put in a market buy order for 100 shares, and there's someone else (the lowest offerer) offers 10 shares at $238. So you buy 10 shares at $238. But the next lowest offerer had his sell order at a limit of $245! Oops, you will instantly buy as many (up to 90 shares) of his as you can... at $245.
There are people who place ridiculously out-of-the-money limit orders after hours, or on thinly traded stocks, in the hopes that some chump will come along and place a market order that will get filled at the ridiculous price. This is why market orders are not allowed out-of-hours. But there are still occasionally people who will decide that they really want the shares NOW, and will buy them anyway.
I have no idea what happened in this case, but that is my explanation... and I almost never place market orders any more.
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It had been some hours before close that it last traded at $238, so I don't think that can be the explanation.
@toyolla2: A limit order is straightforward; if the order can be filled at the limit you specifiy (or better), the trade will happen, otherwise it will wait. So if you say "sell at $238", if there are buyers who are prepared to buy for that (or more) the trade will happen.
A market order is paradoxically less straightforward. If you look at the quoted prices, there's a bid (the price at which someone will buy) and a offer (the price at which someone will sell), and they're never the same! That's because if they were the same, the transaction would have happened already. When you place a market buy (resp. sell), you are saying that you will accept the offer (resp. bid) that's currently outstanding. But by the time your trade gets to the top of the queue, those numbers might have changed. This is particularly true of thinly traded stocks and after-hours trades. But even during normal hours it can happen. Suppose you put in a market buy order for 100 shares, and there's someone else (the lowest offerer) offers 10 shares at $238. So you buy 10 shares at $238. But the next lowest offerer had his sell order at a limit of $245! Oops, you will instantly buy as many (up to 90 shares) of his as you can... at $245.
There are people who place ridiculously out-of-the-money limit orders after hours, or on thinly traded stocks, in the hopes that some chump will come along and place a market order that will get filled at the ridiculous price. This is why market orders are not allowed out-of-hours. But there are still occasionally people who will decide that they really want the shares NOW, and will buy them anyway.
I have no idea what happened in this case, but that is my explanation... and I almost never place market orders any more.�
1/1/2015
guest We've discussed it before in the TSLA investment thread. The general conclusion is that it's a so called "late print". The trade probably happened during the day while the stock was at or just around that market price, but for some reason got registered in the after hours.
Perhaps it was this guy:
Who called his broker on this phone:
Who then mailed the stock purchase made in to the NASDAQ using this:
:smile:�
1/1/2015
guest The person that does it that way is much better off not trading:biggrin:�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks, I think. Ribbing aside, I had been lurking this thread for several months before I joined TMC. I guess 'that' discussion was hiding in the first 2000 posts of the thread which I haven't yet got around to sifting through.
My first buy in March '14 was $199 but the second buy a short time later (a lame attempt at dollar cost averaging) came in around $216. I had to set the bid somewhat higher than I wanted because I felt the stock was about to take off again and if the bid wan't registered in time then the order would have remained unfilled the next morning and I would have missed the spike and would have to rebid. In the event the order was taken but I was surprised to see an initial much lower opening price than what I paid when the market resumed trading the following morning. It appears that this is not an unusual occurrence. But I am expected to be placated because it was probably a "late print". Welcome to the professionals I guess !
Just makes me want to go hmm...
Even though I am in long, like most new investors I hang around these short term threads to see what happens since investor volatility is quite high. But this is not Facebook and downward resistance will be met by the many holders who have been interested in EV adoption for some years and will do what is necessary to prevent the shorts from wagging this dog's tail. The abysmal EPS doesn't phase us like it should, it is giving the rigid support that encourages the banks to advance funds at low cost to the company that is important, just my opinion.�
1/1/2015
guest Indeed that is so. It's called an "out trade". It involves a mistake that had been made earlier in the day and was later corrected.�
1/1/2015
guest We should really take a page from Reddit forums and have a series of FAQ articles to bring new people up to speed. I feel like I benefited enormously in participating over the last 2 years and learned a lot in real time. But we have gone quiet because, in part, all of the "long arguments" were long ago made and don't change rapidly. For a while last year we had a virtual competition to write the best, most cogent "why Tesla is awesome" articles but we stopped once they were written. Similarly, we seemingly settled a few other discussions. it is harder to write a new "why Tesla is awesome (for investing) for mid 2014" article because it's 90% unchanged from last year.
We could write/crowdsource best articles for things like:
1) Best Bull argument for investing in TSLA.
2) Best Bear argument for avoiding or shorting TSLA.
3) Claims that Elon and TM have definately made, and sources (too much chatter about "no one ever said that. Where did you hear that?"
4) A single place for hard metrics. Deliveries, manufacturing rates, quarterly results and official datapoints outside of quarterly reports (like the detroit auto show announcement)
5) FAQ that have come up like:
a) is it better to buy and hold, or actively trade? (answer: there is no answer for that. invest at your own risk)
b) What common technical indicators do TSLA traders watch?
c) What brokerages/tools/fees do members use?
d) What resources are there for (misc generic trading topics, really unlrelated to TSLA at all but come up)
i) Options strategies
ii) trading terms
There are many other things I am surely forgetting, and the list itself would be a project. Anyone else think that is worth some work?�
1/1/2015
guest Austin - I think this is a great idea!
As I am a known Tesla fanatic amongst my friends and family. I often get all kinds of questions based on some partially digested snippet of news they heard. Some of my more savvy friends ask questions about the valuation, but most are just generally ignorant of the current state of EV's. It seems to invariably come up in whatever conversation I'm having, and usually not by me. I got the "What do you think of Elon Musk?" question just a couple days ago at a BBQ.
I'd love to have something I could send out to people (or post on my FB page) that spreads education in a balanced format. I would think it needs ot be something manageable and not some 20 page document. I think a number of people are now realizing that Tesla has made a lot of waves in a few short years, and that there's a great deal to know, but that figuring it all out could take a lot of time and effort. Most people I talk to don't even seem to realize the Model S is completely electric!
I imagine these posts might get exported to some other part of the forum by the mods, which is fine, but I do think it would be great to have some of our sharper minds author a "Tesla for dummies" document.�
1/1/2015
guest That's a brilliant idea, Austin! No new body is going to sift through thousands of posts in hundreds of threads to find a frequent answer.
Not picking up the handle, though - have other things to do, which I hope I can do better.�
1/1/2015
guest Ok, I am not sure I am "picking up the handle either" but I would like to participate.
Can some Mod weigh in? What is the best mechanism for that? The wiki section?
BTW, I am certainly not suggesting no work has been done toward this. Julian has a bear (refutation) piece in the blog section for instance (from last Dec).�
1/1/2015
guest In a limit order, you specify the maximum share price you would pay to buy (or minimum share price you would sell). If there is no offer that meets your limit, the transaction will never occur. In a market order, you tell your broker to buy (or sell) at whatever the market is currently asking (or bidding). Market orders always fill immediately, but if no one is asking at a reasonable price (like in after hours when there is very little volume) then your broker will have to buy at a really high price (and screw you) in order to get the order executed. That is why there is no market orders in after hours.�
1/1/2015
guest Limit orders are filled a set price or better. E.g. a buy 100 shares at 35 will buy at the first price seen that is $35 or LOWER as that would be better. A sell limit order is done at that price or higher e.g. sell 200 shares at 72 will be filled at the first price the market sees at $72 or higher. Day orders expire at the end of the day while Good Till Cancelled (GTC's) can sit around for months. GTC's are usually filled before day orders. Stop orders are completely different animal.�
1/1/2015
guest So can anyone explain what a 'limit/debit' vs a 'limit/credit' order is when doing a two legged option order?
(PS - I am a first time poster here, but I have been following this thread for months and am up >50% since I invested in Tesla options shortly after the May 8 ER. Many thanks to all here as, I have learned a ton. I have owned my Model S P85 since March '13 and been a regular contributor to Tesla's forum since that time. I have kicked myself for well over a year for not investing in Tesla over a year ago, but finally took the plunge with the drop after the May 8 ER).�
1/1/2015
guest I am very curious if Tesla will indeed release some GigaFactory update and 'first ground-breaking in June' as more-or-less promised early May.
The market might not like any delay in that, and I was hoping to see some nice push in the stock as a result of that news. We are quickly running out of time left in this month.�
1/1/2015
guest I always though ground breaking in June was just insanely optimistic. NOTHING moves at that speed when it comes to construction, and Tesla has a lousy track record with dates anyway. I too worry how the market is going to react to the lack of news (though I hope they are as realistic as we are and won't punish the stock too much). I do still expect a pop when it does finally get announced (6 months?)�
1/1/2015
guest Six months is a bit long even by TM standards. I suspect if no announcement before the Q2 ER, then there will be an announcement with the ER call.�
1/1/2015
guest Limit debit means that you will be paying cash for the trade. I.e. if you put in a limit/debit order for 0.10, it means you are willing to pay up to 0.10
Limit credit order means that you will be collecting cash for the trade. I.e. if you put in a limit/credit order for 0.10, it means you are willing to collect no less than 0.10�
1/1/2015
guest I don't think the market has priced in a June announcement. As you say, nothing moves at that speed. And I hear bluster about groundbreaking as a negotiation tactic with the candidate sites only, and I think people get that. Recent stock enthusiasm is driven by:
1) momo stock crowd ascendant again
2) model X excitement
3) the patent move, which paradoxically emphasizes that TM has the EV market cornered. See morgan stanley note.
4) run up to 2H output increases. New factory capacity, and TM's own guidance has the second half increasing run rates. Could be a pop sometime with Q2 investor letter or Q3 investor letter, or somewhere in between. Don't want to be out of TSLA for that.�
1/1/2015
guest Going from not even picking a site, to having shovels in the ground for a major construction project usually takes a year or more. 6 months is a very short time frame.�
1/1/2015
guest It doesn't have to be moving substantial quantities of dirt, it could just be an announcement of first site selection, maybe a PR event at the site.�
1/1/2015
guest I listened to Q1 ER conference call, I think Elon confirmed the June ground breaking several times. It's not good to miss the date for such a "focused" project. Aren't we counting on TM's perfect execution?�
1/1/2015
guest He also confirmed Model S delivery at least a year before it happened, and Model X delivery in 2013, and Canadian superchargers in 2013, and the list goes on and on. Tesla does fulfill it's promises, but never on time.�
1/1/2015
guest You can't say that. We have no idea how much preliminary work they have done. If they have full factory design done and their site needs are done it's just a matter of finding a site and taking their preliminary designs to the planning commission.
The reason he is doing it this way is he wants to see where he can get permitting done the quickest.
6500 jobs into a region is huge and should motivate any planning commission to clear the path and expedite the project.�
1/1/2015
guest Government bureaucracies simply don't move at that speed. regardless of incentives. There's also not insignificant site specific planning involved in these sorts of projects, everything from type of soil, levelness of the land, to which side the road/railway/power lines/water pipes/etc are on all affect some of the planning. If they do it in 6 months it will still be a record setting pace. I get that Elon likes to push timelines, but some things just aren't in his control. If his track record of predicting dates was better I might believe he'd found some ways around this, but his track record in this department is absolutely atrocious, I don't see any reason to believe this time will be any different.�
1/1/2015
guest All I hope for is that they have picked at least one site in all the states and acquired the land in at least one state by the end of this month. I don't really care if there is construction equipment on the ground or not. I would also like the Gen III not to slip beyond mid-2018 (for me more than for my investment)
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All I hope for is that they have picked at least one site in all the states and acquired the land in at least one state by the end of this month. I don't really care if there is construction equipment on the ground or not. I would also like the Gen III not to slip beyond mid-2018 (for me more than for my investment)�
1/1/2015
guest It seems there are lots of adequate victory conditions for "hitting June". I think if they just announced the site and said permitting was in process that would suffice.�
1/1/2015
guest THAT.....is all I hope by Q2ER as it certainly will be a question, mabe the first question, on the ER conference call�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry, thank you for the correction, I guess the comments about it being a late posted trade makes the most sense then...
@AustinEV
This is a fantastic idea that I think I would love to also help try to contribute to. Because I know as I get into many different discussions about the stock it seems to me that it is hard to recall what has been officially stated, what has been "heard around the rumor mill" (He said/She said), and what was just a really great hypothesis from some forum member that makes a lot of sense for how something is going.
As much as I am really in love with the company, I really do like to only present facts as facts and list everything else as opinion, because it really makes me mad when I see other people being negative about the company and then making some off base comment as if it were fact, and yet nothing like that had ever been stated. So having a nice library as it were, would be really helpful!
The other things see really useful as well, for those who are new to the company and the stock. So anything I can do to help, I am there!�
1/1/2015
guest And here I agree... I also don't think it's likely in the next few days, but a site announcement in the next few weeks is possible. (again I think they over-promised a bit on this, but they could announce a site (not "break ground") in only a couple months.)�
1/1/2015
guest During the conference call on May 7, a questioner asked when ground would be broken on a Gigafactory. Musk answered in a less than firm tone, "...probably next month." I didn't take that to be a promised deadline. He said another ground breaking could occur about a month later, but the decision on which site would actually contain the first Gigafactory would not be made until later this year. He said there will be multiple ground breaks so as to not delay the completion of the first Gigafactory. He said that any delay would be far more costly than having to break ground several times.�
1/1/2015
guest I am conflicted... Tesla could make an announcement with respect to the Gigafactory site selection anytime from now until Sunday night, and the press will show up for a PR event on Monday.
The market appears to me to be anticipating an announcement.
The issue is going to be if they don't. Either they are silent, or announce a delay. That will crush the price, but one can see that as a new opportunity to buy on sale. I sold out of all my Jun 27's yesterday due the risk and the fact that I had to travel for work. But I hold some Jul 3's at various strike prices in anticipation of this run up. They're up a bunch, but no longer as high as they were but I'd hate to sell too much if Tesla comes through.�
1/1/2015
guest I could be wrong, but I suspect this is a case of "we TMC tesla nerds know of this tiny detail so therefore the market does too". This factory is by definition addressing supply needs of the distant future (in wall street attention span time frames) so delaying a comment or site selection or groundbreaking by days or weeks is just a non event. I can't foresee hyperventilating articles saying "OMG tesla misses implied June deadline, sky falls". Even for an avid bear that is small beer.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. Unless TM comes out and says the word 'delay' I think that there will be little negative impact on the stock....and I don't see that happening.. More likely there will be silence from TM.�
1/1/2015
guest It's ok the next round of news is going to be on outraged customers in China apparently lol. I don't get why they do this, he got a different car already and he smashed the windshield in protest. Like that guy who smashed his lamborghini. Elon apologized in person already that should be good enough, his time per hour cost more than the car.
Disgruntled Chinese Customer Gets New Tesla, Smashes It - China Real Time Report - WSJ�
1/1/2015
guest From my understanding, this is a publicity stunt. This guy's true intention is in showing ppl that he is rich enough to smash a very expensive limited edition car. Hence free advertisement that he is rich and he can get someone important like Elon to apologize to him. Notice how he didn't smash the cqr body or set it on fire. Or any of the other ways to completely destroys a tank.�
1/1/2015
guest Guy sounds mentally unstable.�
1/1/2015
guest This could be a cultural difference. For many Chinese people this is a show off toy. If they pay top dollars for it and don't get on time after 2nd promise, that may create social uneasiness. Elon and Tesla need to underpromise and overdeliver.�
1/1/2015
guest Personally I don't agree this "angry" customer's behavior, but I may understand his feeling that being "cheated" by either TM China or Elon's promise. Although Tesla is red hot popular in China, but the customer service and experience is by far the worst in all Tesla markets. TM China and Elon should treat this kind of issue seriously, "underpromise and overdeliver" is the way to go instead of vice versa.
�
1/1/2015
guest That guy is acting like a spoiled child who thinks everything is about him and his needs. He needs to grow up. His behavior is inexcusable.�
1/1/2015
guest I think you are correct! the folks who are shelling out the big bucks in China are likely motivated by social standing on a level it might be all to easy to underestimate in the west, even for as vain as we can be.
�
1/1/2015
guest Wealth and elite status in any country do not correlate with sanity or intelligence.�
1/1/2015
guest that's probably true (especially given the current challenges)- but this makes his protest less than meaningless. He clearly never cared about getting the car (soon or otherwise)- Since he now rendered it useless himself, creating a self induced further delay. Protesting low customer service by inflicting more self-abuse, means he doesn't treat himself any better than Tesla. A classic spoiled brat syndrome. I'll bet both positions are true- Tesla's customer service in China needs work and no matter how good it gets, this fellow would still want more. Clearly money is not even a factor of life here; A better move would have been to donate the car (since he clearly doesn't really care about it) to a well deserving recipient and use that publicity to point out Tesla's low service levels (assuming that's true);
Now I have no sympathy regardless of how bad Tesla's service might be. In my view, it's his arrogance that's beyond pale and reflects badly in the mirror- but has little impact on Tesla- the opposite of his apparent mission. FAIL�
1/1/2015
guest Boo hoo - your expensive car was delayed. Take a look at the world around you sometime, jackass. Arrogant entitled people like this really get to me. Rant done.�
1/1/2015
guest There are immature impulsive rich people in every society. I agree that the guys behaviour reflects a cultural difference. I am glad that his anger and aggression were at least turned inwards, onto his property. It is much worse when that aggression is aimed outwards.
Just to better illustrate my statements above, here are few picks of the way Aussie billionaire and TV executive express themselves. TV exec (getting beaten) is billionaire's best man, at both of billionaire's weddings. I am glad there are no guns involved, we made some progress.:wink:
�
1/1/2015
guest it is probably an important lesson for Elon. The Chinese people do not like second hand stuff. To a point where they'd keep the plastic wrap on lamp shades they bought 10 years ago.�
1/1/2015
guest First time Elon has mentioned "2 1/2 years" until Gen3.
From Stuff meets Elon Musk | Stuff :
Telsa plans to follow the Model S with something more affordable. The next car after the Model X will be �mass-market�: �we�re aiming for 20% smaller and half the price, and it�ll be coming to market in about two and a half years.��
1/1/2015
guest That was a very exciting interview to read. Very bullish. 2 1/2 years for Gen3 and "autopilot on highways" within 12 months!!! He got me excited for sure.�
1/1/2015
guest Putting that through the Tesla Time calculator, we are right on schedule for a mid 2018 Gen III!
Seriously, cool link.�
1/1/2015
guest He's first time acknowledges the difficulty in Germany:
" I think the UK should be our biggest market in Europe, because UK consumers make a decision based on the car itself, not for nationalistic reasons. If you look at Germany and France, they tend to be a bit parochial when it comes to buying cars."�
1/1/2015
guest Continuing above quote:
Wow, Elon says Gen3 will have AutoPilot (ramp to ramp without touching any controls). Was that mentioned anywhere before?!�
1/1/2015
guest Well 6 months ago, he did say 3 years, and in 6 months he will probably say 2 years :wink:
But I have heard him say "2016" time frame a couple of weeks or months ago, so this 2 1/2 years is really nothing new. Just confirmation that they are still on pace for end of 2016/early 2017.�
1/1/2015
guest Build a Tesla plant in Germany! The Japanese automakers faced similar resistance in the U.S., but I think that their factory and R&D presence in North America made those concerns go away. An Accord or Camry is often more American than a domestic brand counterpart.
All along, I've projected G3 as a 2018 vehicle, but after some further thought, I think they could get it into production by 2017. Tesla learned a lot from Model S, and the company has all the core technology in place (powertrain, body, suspension, interface, interior, etc). The major hurdle is battery cost and volume.
The question is whether they can build 300k G3/year.�
1/1/2015
guest Well he already said a few weeks ago that some form of autonomous driving will be available next year so that will be an option on the S and X. Since the Gen III won't be out until 2017 at the earliest, certainly it will also be an option on that vehicle. It's sensors and software, it could be on any Tesla model once available.�
1/1/2015
guest The autopilot itself was mentioned during the annual shareholders meeting, however bringing it to market in the GEN3 is new and very interesting.
Whelp guess I will be selling my 90k car for a 50k car just so I can get the autopilotI have said to all my friends that they only way I would sell my Tesla is to get the autopilot when it comes out.
�
1/1/2015
guest In terms of Gen III I'm interested in seeing Chris Porritt's influence. Looking forward to those classic Aston Martin lines.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah, Elon mentioned last year that Gen3 was expected in late 2016 or early 2017. Then toward end of last year he said Gen3 was about 3 years away (confirming a late 2016 debut). Then earlier this year he said multiple times that Gen3 was about 3 years today. I thought Gen3 timeline could be slipping some because he said "about 3 years ago late last year and just a couple months ago. But him saying in about "2 1/2 years" confirms that they are still on track for a late 2016 or early 2017 debut. They could face unexpected delays but it's good to hear that internally their timeline hasn't changed.�
1/1/2015
guest This isn't Tesla-related but it was an interesting read on the market and investing in general, The IPO is dying. Marc Andreessen explains why. - Vox�
1/1/2015
guest thanks to DaveT for posting that article.
I found it amusing that they brought up Larry Page's comments about possibly leaving his money to Elon. well, amusing that he had a ready playful comment about the topic, and then with some prompting, the interviewer got him to pause and give a serious answer involving Mars. maybe he's already thought about this.
[FONT=bariol_regular]"Fellow billionaire Larry Page certainly agrees: the Google co-founder recently said he�d rather bequeath his immense fortune to Musk than a charity, because Musk would �do more with it�.[/FONT]
[FONT=bariol_regular]�Oh yeah� I know Larry well, but I�ve never actually brought that up in conversation, like �hey Larry, can I see your will, please?�[/FONT]
[FONT=bariol_regular]But would he accept it? Musk considers for a moment.[/FONT]
[FONT=bariol_regular]�Yeah, sure, okay. Mostly what I would use it for is building a base on Mars. Because there�s an initial cost to establish the essential infrastructure that�s quite high, and you don�t have an immediate return, because you can�t charge people a billion dollars each to go there. So you�ve got to carry it to the point at which someone can sell their house on Earth, move to Mars and get a job - at that point, I think it becomes a self-sustaining business. It�s analogous, I think, to the establishment of the English colonies in America.�"[/FONT]�
1/1/2015
guest Count me out. I prefer Sydney to Mars.�
1/1/2015
guest There's probably no stinging trees on mars though.�
1/1/2015
guest ok, guilty of promoting off topic stuff, but why not a colony on the moon first? Vastly cheaper, easier in countless ways. Plus you will live longer and can fly like a bird, given a large enough (air filled) room.
Better yet a "colony" in Greenland, or the aforementioned Australia. A serious bio-dome situation. You have to figure this all out anyway, better to start here where you can work out the kinks. A 21st century off-world colony requires near-perfect management of air, water, plants, farming (and cooking/eating). Society, economy, government all in the dome, economically permanently severed from Earth. The technology itself is just a small part of the full enterprise, and I feel like it is all that gets discussed. Remember that a lot of 17th and 18th centuries colonies failed and that was in a place where you could count on AIR to be there when you arrived. Colonizing itself is an art that our ancestors had that we have entirely lost, but in our arrogance we act like that is the easy part.�
1/1/2015
guest Austin, meet Biosphere2
Biosphere 2 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia�
1/1/2015
guest "The Meek Shall inherit the Earth" has a meaning, because, the rest of us are going to leave... Probably because we have to.
I fully expect "moon base alpha", where they will experiment with living remotely, terraforming, etc.
Let's hope we don't blow the moon up like we did in "Space 1999"�
1/1/2015
guest I am familiar with that project. I should have said "real biosphere 2 project", I wasn't trying to reference the pauly shore movie. They messed it up by not really isolating it properly and they used a bunch of concrete. They made it way too complicated, trying to recreate earth instead of making a minimum workable cycle. Elon's team would do better I am sure working from a real plan, with a real goal and with adequate financing. Also, everyone will be vegetarians, sorry. Silly bringing livestock. The humans will be the animal portion of the biosphere for a few generations at least. (plus bees and microbes)�
1/1/2015
guest Life in middle ages was generally below miserable for the majority of people. The dream of greener pastures and better life in a far away land was a strong incentive to push people to sail the oceans and conquer vast unknown territories.
Now life is much better for good deal of population. Apart from the desire to convert more of the unknown into known, there is not enough incentive to leave the earth for some far away place. It is much easier to migrate to another country.�
1/1/2015
guest Sydney is as far as I've ever been from Chicago. I intend to keep it that way. Observing Mars through my telescope is plenty good enough for me.�
1/1/2015
guest I'd go in a heartbeat, if given the chance. I don't know if I'd prefer Sydney to Mars because I've never been to Mars. Only one way to know for sure. Besides, someone has to write the Lonely Planet* Guide to Mars & take pictures and all that. I love doing stuff like that.
*smart move on their part not to limit their name to just Earth. Who knew?�
1/1/2015
guest The Sydney I dated was way better than Mars. I'd rather be observing Chicago from Mars... with Sydney�
1/1/2015
guest Chicago seems surplus in there. Maybe just observe Sydney on Mars :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest good point�
1/1/2015
guest I don't buy the whole Mars colonization story. There are no fossil fuels to burn up there, so there is no economical way to make energy and electricity.
Maybe if we reject the Keystone pipeline, then the Canadians can build a pipeline to Mars instead.�
1/1/2015
guest And solar power on Mars is pretty weak, too. And with such a thin atmosphere, how large will wind turbine blades need to be? My company's ocean wave energy tech will be completely useless.
All of which raises an interesting question: what is the power source for the million+ person city on Mars that Elon envisions?�
1/1/2015
guest This quote from Wikipedia probably explains it:
Because Mars is further from the Sun, the amount of solar energy entering the upper atmosphere per unit area is less than half of that entering Earth's upper atmosphere. However, due to the thinner atmosphere, more solar energy reaches the surface.
There is still the issue of dust of course, but the winds seem to help with that.�
1/1/2015
guest
Shoot. Our cars on Mars are already solar powered! :biggrin:
Mars Exploration Rover - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia�
1/1/2015
guest maybe he'd use methane production for his favorite Fuel Cell power�
1/1/2015
guest energy on Mars?
we've all heard Elon talk countless times about vertical takeoff/landing electric jets, but in this video from a couple of years ago (posted already in the TMC video thread) Elon listed a fusion reactor (or possibly a better fission reactor- he mentioned thorium reactors in particular) as one of the couple of projects he'd want to take on if he could clone himself. He called fusion "the energy forever solution."
starts discussing this about 19:20 mark
Elon Musk Mahalo Mentor Interview - YouTube�
1/1/2015
guest Terraforming may thicken the atmosphere. And yes, I do intend to spell that with 2 Rs in terra, not teraforming.�
1/1/2015
guest I am curious, is that commercial, selling energy into grid?
I had shares in one of those, pic below, but transferred money into TSLA. That was a good move, as they are still not commercial.
�
1/1/2015
guest Yes, it will be grid-tied, utility-scale wave generation. We're privately held and intend to remain so. I've posted a bit more on what we're doing over here: Ocean Energy .�
1/1/2015
guest If this is the case, then Elon royally screwed up:
Instead of going into EV's, space, solar, or even fusion; he should have gone into human cloning research and development. That way he could have cloned himself to make many Elon's that would each run their own companies: SpaceX, SCTY, HyperLoop, Cloning, Fusion, etc.
Dammit Elon...�
1/1/2015
guest Well, cloning IS fission - right? :tongue:�
1/1/2015
guest 5 children is as close to cloning as one can get now.
It baffles me that anyone would really want to clone themselves. I have too much of myself on some days, it would be a disaster to have clones:biggrin:�
1/1/2015
guest He has twins and triplets (IVF anyone?). I tried to find info on if either of the boys are identical - they could be since they're all boys. In that case we could have two or even three copies of Elon Jr!!!�
1/1/2015
guest Can anyone confirm that Fremont is getting the new production line set up this week?�
1/1/2015
guest Or five, right? That thought struck me too but I self-censored. :wink:
Please note I also did not make any allusion whatever to the banned subject of Focus Fusion and LPP. :cursing:�
1/1/2015
guest Well if it's IVF it's more common that twins or triplets are non-identical than naturally occuring twins and triplets, since the most common cause with IVF is that you implant two or three embryos (non-identical). Then if course you could put in just one and it splits in two (identical) or even three. Or you implant two embryos and one of them splits so that one triplet comes from one embroy and the other two from one (identical twins within the triplet gang with the third just being a brother of the exact same age). Whew, they're all Elon Jrs. of course, i was just pondering if any of them are identical or not. This wouldn't make them clones anyway (half mom).�
1/1/2015
guest If cloning were any good, nature would have done it already.
Introducing variation and mix gives better result than just repeating the same pattern over and over.
I assume that desire to clone oneself stems from the idea of personal perfection, no need for improvement, or from narcissism. Simple logic then leads to conclusion that only fools or narcissists would clone themselves. Imagine the world full of clones:scared:�
1/1/2015
guest Cloning or self fertilization is very common in nature! Just not so much in animals�
1/1/2015
guest We may need a new thread for cloning, IVF and self pollination. :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest So does the Tesla health insurance plan cover cloning, IVF, and self-fertilization? Would medical services on Mars be considered in-network or out?�
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