Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 23

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What would you consider unconfirmed vs confirmed? Our own ggr confirmed his delay.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I meant publicly confirmed by Tesla in a blog post or twitter post or something. Also, we don't know yet if this issue will impact the stated goal of 5,000 deliveries this year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, when it is public it will be far too late to help anyone here. Seems like discussing this kind of info before it is public knowledge is exactly what is valuable about this thread. If we are only going to rehash blog posts that the whole world has seen then I'll spend my time elsewhere.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not talking about the obvious doesn't make it go away or diminish it's impact. IMHO

    Also obvious, at least to me, is that 5,000 cars in 2012 is now a pipe dream. We see why Elon was trying so hard to downplay that number.

    I think all the cars that have been delivered already, basically the Founders and the few SSLs that have been delivered, will need serious retro-fitment with the replacement parts. Tesla simply cannot afford to have too many of those, hence the delivery stoppage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're right if it was speculation, however the delays are confirmed by three different people. Speculation on what caused the delays, and how long they might be, is probably not helpful. Discussion in this thread about potential impact of any delays is entirely valid.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems to me if there is a supply problem with a door handle, they can continue building cars and finish the door handles when the parts arrive. Since their current build rate is below the target finishing and delivering these cars should not be terribly hard to manage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is something I'm a bit concerned about. 5k looks very hard to hit with the delays, yet Tesla is contacting folks near P5000. I'm fearing a big squeeze between actual production rates and expectations set by all these folks being contacted is going to result in an explosion of grumpy reservation holders as we approach the end of the year.

    I see this kind of thing all the time in software, managers saying we'll hit some date, more features creeping in, engineers sort of looking sad knowing it can't be done and it all implodes in a mess when the date doesn't get hit. The product eventually goes out (in projects that survive) and frequently is fine, but it's an unpleasant thing to go through.

    I'm debating pulling almost all of my stock and reentering after that implosion.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That may be, but the risk is they then continue incurring costs and revenue won't be recognized until delivery.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My view on this is slightly different, and having lived through it once with the roadster, maybe it's better than you think. (Disclaimer: while I can absolutely confirm my own delay, I have no hard facts as to what is causing it in my case.) Anyway, there were glitches in Roadster production, lots of them. If you've seen the scene in WKTEC, you know what I mean. But once the glitches were sorted out, the Roadsters started flowing... to the extent that ours (VIN 537) was actually delivered a month or so earlier than expected.

    So I have this mental picture of a bunch of almost-but-not-quite-perfect cars, piling up in a corner of the factory, waiting for certain parts of acceptable quality to arrive, and sometime soonish, there will be a trickle, then a flood, of deliveries. Maybe they won't make the 5000 number, but the market seems to think 3000 is an acceptable number.

    Hypothetical about the door handles: when they change supplier, it takes time to get the new ones, but it's not like they have lots of the inferior ones lying around. That's not how modern manufacturing works. And you really can't deliver the car with no handles at all! Yes, they'll have to retrofit the ones already delivered, but I don't see them stopping shipping for that. At least not until they hit much higher volumes.

    Someone should do one of those Hitler rants about Elon and door handles. :). Actually, don't bother... just visualizing it is enough.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah and I believe they have enough space in Freemont to store them...:smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. The market clearly does not expect 5k deliveries in 2012. I don't think that an announcement that they aren't going to make that is going to do much more than create a day or two buying opportunity.

    Switching topics: I'm surprised that they have contacted well past P5000 already. I wonder if that is a symptom of a lot of people deferring for 2013 options like the regular suspension and Sunset Red.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm already a tad grumpy (Sig 92 - originally told September, possibly very late August - just last week -"maybe six weeks") and its not the delay, but that I feel headquarters is jerking me off about timing and refusing to discuss the issue with any specificity. I couldn't even get someone to respond to a phone call and an email until I called back and made my annoyance known. While I understand some employee hyper focus on the stock price, I see this all the time in business. It is ALWAYS better to be up front with customers - even if you have bad news to relay - than to delay and obfuscate. People will graciously handle all sorts of unexpected or bad news if they feel informed and that the deliverer is making its best efforts to be up front and to correct the issue. IMO, they are making a mistake for reasons I've discussed previously - the early adopters spending $100k are their biggest evangelists and nobody wants to tout a company where they feel that company is ignoring them or worse, misleading them.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think so. Yes, surely, there are some deferrals or cancellations even but, by making so many folks finalize, Tesla's getting better visibility into the supply chain requirements and is also locking in the $5k now-non-refundable deposit. It's surely not making some folks happy - that they have to finalize now for a car that they may not see till December/January - but, it is what it is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm struggling with whether to dump my shares and wait for the delay to hit the news and rebuy at a better price. I am not a big fan of averaging down.

    Should we consider the TM forum as having broke the news? Seeing as were down already about half a point, those who care to know, probably already do.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    John Peterson's next article is already cooking as we speak :) The market's down overall today and TSLA is still probably absorbing the Volt factory idling news from a couple of days ago. And, A123 got a delisting notice recently.

    I think the big dip could happen by Friday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    $5,000 x 5,000 customers = $25m in recognizable revenue. Doesn't change cash flow, but looks nicer on the balance sheet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just see it as a sign that they may have, or had, supply issues, and now they want to make sure they know the volumes of each option so they can plan ahead. Plus, they may be in the situation where ramp-up is depending on fewer and fewer things, and they want to make sure that once they are able to ramp up, they have nothing else standing in the way of quickly catching up with delivering larger volumes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My gut tells me that Tesla isn't going to get anywhere close to 5,000 deliveries now. Sure they may be making a ton of cars without door handles and putting them in a corner of the factory for final assembly, which may be a relatively fast job once the parts arrive, but it's going to result in a giant logistics problem of squeezing all those deliveries into 3-4 less weeks of the year.

    I don't think Tesla has ramped up the hiring and training of their delivery specialist folks in anticipation of needing to deliver 4,900 vehicles in the final three months of the year. With holidays, assuming folks worked 5 day work week, and each specialist can deliver 3 cars a day (we've heard it's a few hour process), that means Tesla would need to have ~30 people dedicated to just deliveries. And this doesn't take into account that some deliveries are going to be in remote locations, which means on that day, a specialist might only deliver 1 car in that day...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. And we don't know whether we are getting closer to ramp-up and if things are getting delayed temporarily only, or not. As the 5k number isn't magic, there is no need to demonstrate math skills each day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds like they are trying to walk the fine line between controlling the information flow through their own PR and through customers like yourself. I agree though, they could just tell you why it is delayed and ask that you keep it to yourself until they make it public, I'd probably be happy to keep it to myself as long as I felt like I was in the loop, which is not an unreasonable thing to expect when you are putting down 100k on something like this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm really wondering whether to sell all, 50 % or none off my stocks. I bought all of my stocks at a higher price, so I would loose quite a bit of money selling now. What do you think? Will an official statement from TM make the stock drop, or has the market already reacted to the known delays? I think a lot of investors expected TM to get some problems delivering 5000 cars, so maybe it won't affect the stock price at all...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They are expected to announce a supercharger system sometime in September, it might be a good time to sell in the lead up to the event if you need to.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems to me that a temporary dip will almost certainly take place for at least a couple days if/when the greater market catches wind of the delays. I'm long Tesla so I'll just view it as another buying opportunity if it drops below my "can't resist" threshold.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is the first time I've sold a Tesla stock. Actually it's the first time I've sold a stock all my life.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gave us the bad news at the same time as some good news. They might wait for the supercharger announcement before they released any news about the delay. That way investors wouldn't loose confidence and the stock would probably not dip at all
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A relevant question may be "How much warehouse space do they have for storing cars that are done, except for the door handles?" That is, assuming the door handles are the only problem.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They basically have 90% or so of the factory shut down (the dark side I think they call it) so storage on site shouldn't be a problem.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So how bad is TSLA going to tank when they reach their production targets? I have a feeling this stock is going way down by the end of this year. Lower 20s possibly?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Obviously you haven't seen the Tesla factory. You could lose a small town in there...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've walked through the factory several times on several levels.

    They could store plenty of inventory there.

    Actually, you could lose a good size town in there ...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ??? you think it will tank when they reach production targets?
    The car beats all of the #s they have been saying.
    When they hit production targets and the 'real' buyers have a chance at buying one with in a couple of months Tesla will rule the road (quietly)
    If the stock hits that low I would consider a loan to buy some more along with my car
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I assume he meant "don't reach" production targets.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No problem then, I don't think that will be happening anytime soon
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So you think they're going to hit their stated 5,000 units by the end of this year? We've already had confirmation from various TMC members saying that their delivery date has been pushed back and delayed. If deliveries are being pushed back then we can assume that there's a decent possibility that TSLA doesn't meet their production numbers.

    Long-term I don't (hope) think this will affect Tesla but short term I think if they miss their production targets it'll definitely cause the stock to fall.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it depends on which production rate they will achieve by the end of the year. The market might consider this much more significant that the 5K "soft" goal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed, will the market really care if they "only" hit say 4K vehicles in 2012 instead of 5K? As long as the production problems are only minor supply issues that get sorted I don't see it having a large impact.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All the analyst reports I've reviewed (which is not all of them out there) assume that that Tesla won't hit the 5k deliveries this year, so I'm only concerned if Tesla can't get 3k delivered. Why 3k? Because that's how many they need to deliver to include mine! :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree with Robert that the analysts are already skeptical; but the test will be whether they are disappointed with the actual results (that's what spooks them & the market). My WAG is that anything ~4,000 and upwards will be fine and anything below ~3,500 will be viewed as a fail. Don't forget that everyone is looking for Tesla to produce 20,000 (or more) cars next year; the question will be asked how that is possible if they can't produce 3,500 in the first 6 months?

    FWIW, I'm optimistic but I'm just hypothesizing some market reaction.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems to come back to the same point. Even then, if the rate will rise to 1,700 per month by the end of the year, and if Tesla can convince that that this will be the continuous rate, this may indicate to most that 20,000 will be produced in 2013. OTOH, if the total volume reached at the end of 2012 won't be as high, the Q4 financial results won't look as good. In that situation, what will the market consider more important?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There are potentially a lot of other benefits, particularly with respect to taxes. For example, if Tesla has lots of past losses and SpaceX doesn't, with a holding company SpaceX can use Tesla's tax credits and thereby lower the overall tax bill for Elon's companies. There are other various tax strategies that can be pursued with this type of corporate structure depending on profits and losses in the future, so it's a good idea to try to get them under one corporate roof.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wouldn't sharing technology be easier as well (less need to lengthly agreements..etc)?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1

    I actually think that's a realistic possibility. Nobody seems to take him seriously when he talks about his supersonic electric VTOL passenger plane (I can't imagine the reason for skepticism :smile:) , and even serious engineering forums just sort of move past the concept and start discussing other possibilities.

    But Elon seems to think it will work, and he has made comments to the effect of "when" he starts the electric plane venture, such and such will happen. And when you consider that his various ventures are now on the cusp of generating billions in returns for him, while also lowering his personal workload, he looks set to be able to begin a multi-billion development of his e-plane pipe-dream.

    Whether you think it will work or not, there are undeniable synergies between SpaceX and Tesla if you are wanting to create a new aerospace company based on electric propulsion. Even if he isn't able to get it in the air, most of the R&D spent on battery development and high performance electronics will likely redound to the benefit of Tesla in the long run.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, and back office functions (payroll, accounts payable, treasury, legal etc.). These are the "synergies" that drive many corporate deals, but in this case with no debt from an acquisition, it could actually be a real benefit to both companies to come together this way. There are complications also, particularly because it essentially makes SpaceX related to a public company, so I'm sure Elon is considering how to protect it from the prying eyes of Wall Street investors.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. I thought he planned to take Space X public too soon (once all initial launch missions were successful) so that might help the situation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heee, this makes me giddy :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EM "The Tesla Supercharger, to be unveiled in a few months� I thought it was within 30 days � i.e. September ??? Say it isn�t so!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since some are expecting battery swapping, I wonder what that means? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That the stations will offer WiFi. ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm, yeah good point, I was focused on "do a lot more than anyone suspects".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good question. IMHO, putting two inherently risky enterprises into one corporation actually makes the investment less risky; and there's also some great marketing opportunities. I was answering some questions about my Roadster last night and went through the usual:

    Q: What is it?
    A. It's a Tesla.
    Q: Who makes it?

    Imagine if you could answer that second question "SpaceX"...you'd add a wow factor.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Laughing. I have that conversation a LOT.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No kidding.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are the obstacles to this parent holding company approach?

    - Will TSLA shareholders approve it? They may be happy if the SpaceX magic of late rubs off on the TSLA stock, I suppose.

    - Will SpaceX investors like it? Could any missteps on the Tesla front in the near future impact SpaceX's prospects?

    - And, vice versa for that matter; what if SpaceX's future rocket launches fail?

    - Where's the synergy? In terms of technology sharing, employee cross-pollination and such? Does that need to be justified to anyone?

    - Is this the first step towards selling both companies out to Apple?! (as has been discussed rather passionately in the past) I'm only half-joking, of course ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla can never be sold to anyone unless Mercedes declines to buy it first. Remember they got right of first refusal when they put money into TM.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Apple is my next largest holding, so I would still own TSLA �. but instead of becoming TSLX it would be called APLX !
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IIRC, that right lapses in June, 2013.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Tesla Motors Stock Rating Reaffirmed by Needham & Company (TSLA)


    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sold my shares last week, thinking a drop was imminent with the rumors of production delays. Placed an order to re-buy at $27.50. When it looked like there was resistance at just below $28, I cancelled order and bought at the market price of $27.93, which looks to be the 30-day low, so I'm quite happy and looking forward to the run up as news of increased production, near-perfect quality, and the Supercharging announcement hits.

    Current price is $29.41, up 3% today...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's got a pattern. I predict profit-taking again near $31.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it has a pattern... until it doesn't. ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am going to get in when the stock slides after the world figures out that Tesla will not meet 5000 vehicles this year. Vin 88 is being delivered in the late September time frame. That means they have to build about 4800 vehicles in 3 months. It isnt going to happen. This stock is good, but it is going to go lower before it goes higher.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Welcome to the site! Interesting first post....perhaps you are one of those shorts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hitting the "5000" number is not important. Hitting a production volume that can end up hitting their 20K annual number is.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doubtful, nobody is counting on 5k this year. There are calls for $44 stock price with barely 3k deliveries. I think the probability of a surprise to the upside is much more likely given investors current sentiment.

    Oh, and and as we've been through 100 times, it is still possible to hit 5k given their current trajectory. Waiting for the next official update to see if they are still on that curve.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you saw the traffic over on the Model S Delivery Update thread, things are looking good. 'Regular' Sig 651 was contacted and given an early October delivery date. So, roughly 600-700 cars are close to being done (with SSLs minus drops).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hadn't seen the Foundation interview. He looks like he hasn't been sleeping again, like he did before COTS 2/3, and he wasn't able to give his stock answers without jumping around and skipping steps. I'd guess he has been working more than 24 hours without more than a few minutes for a nap, and probably hasn't gotten normal sleep in days. Been there, done that, still got the t-shirt.

    Seriously though, it's interesting the final answer he gave regarding all the little problems in production. That wasn't even what the question was about, so it's really revealing that he answered the way he did. Clearly the all the little problems have his undivided attention and he is hammering them into submission through shear dogged effort.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I loved this:
    Didn't realize this board has nanny software :rolleyes: Really?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is a good sign: Model S Delivery Update - Page 54. Sig 501 delivered end of Oct or early Nov. That means production will make or be very close to the 500 cars point at quarter's end. Just as soft-promised. Very nice.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't know if we can read too much into that, they seem to be delivering some cars out of order.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    May be early and still some hurdles but this most recent verification of ramp up has me feeling significantly more confident as an investor.

    When this news reaches mainstream media I would hope to see the stock bump.

    from my Samsung galaxy s3
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    > they seem to be delivering some cars out of order

    Well, that's true. It may be too early to claim the 500 yet. Still, these deliveries auger well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/855661-tesla-profit-point?source=yahoo

    What do you guys think about this article? I want to believe that he has made some mistake or wrong assumptions. Is he correct in assuming that Tesla's cash burn will continue at its current rate? He says in the article that they will maintain their Q2 R&D+SG&A of $111Mil/qtr. (By the way excuse my ignorance but what is SG&A?) I figured it will drop off drastically over Q3 and Q4 as the tooling is completed. If his calculations are correct, I find Elon's statement of 8,000 break-even as misleading... but again, I'm looking to prove him right... thoughts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes it's a little difficult. He even says that R&D should INCREASE as the company is a growth type (which although in general I agree with, I don't currently think this is the best idea for TSLA). I originally thought Musk's comment was the breakeven for the Model S inc. that R&D for that product. We must not forget that Tesla is working on multiple projects at once. So that $111 is for Model S, Model X and other areas, not just the Model S.

    His article also says an average price of $70k, but then doesn't make any reference as to how he got this figure? There is no evidence to support or to go against this, so it's really just a number plucked out of the air (unless I have missed something?).

    I guess with the very limited data it is difficult to say "Yes he is correct" or "No he is entirely wrong".

    And I found this, which is very useful I think!

    TESLA MOTORS INC (TSLA:NASDAQ GS): Financial Statements - Businessweek

    SGA - Selling General & Admin Expenses
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    RobotGrease: I think his numbers are fairly right but I believe there are 2 more important points to make. This year an average sales price of $70k is in no way correct. They currently do not offer the 60kWh or the 40kWh pack and hence they offer Signature/80kWh possibly with Performance thrown in. The Sigs are starting at $88k or $98k, while the 85kWh standard starts at $70k so currently no one can pay LESS than $70k so the average in 2012 is probably going to be more like $80k most of that with high margin upgrades like performance and ticking off on the options list.
    This means the income is higher pushing his curve upwards.
    The second is that Tesla has to either do another round of funding somehow to maintain the development work on the Model X and Gen III or wait a bit for the income for the Model S from a full production rate of 20 000+ cars a year. Hence as he says the $110 mill/qt is what he thinks Tesla SHOULD be doing not something they necissarily can afford right now. Not that I disagree with him that spending much money on Model X and Gen III to get those out the door faster might be a good idea in a perfect world.

    If you want his math was transparent so using $80k or $85 as average price and cutting R&D to maybe 30 mill /qt in Q3-Q4 2012 will show you very different numbers. Plug them into his formulas and see where you end up.

    Though I have no problem thinknig that Elon meant 8000 Model S a year is break-even for Tesla as a company ASSUMING they only want to sell around 8000 Model S a year. That implies a much slower rollout of shops and service center, much less money on R&D etc. The same way Tesla probably could settle as a boutique maker of cars, with just the Roadster and be profitable last year. That of course would have been a very very different company though.

    Cobos
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I don't know exactly when, R&D is expected to go down significantly at some point, as much of it is investments in the new production line. However they are hiring which also adds some (unknown) cost (but not nearly as much as current R&D, is my understanding).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Check the Wiki (page 1 of the "Delivery Update" thread for an up-to-date full listing of reported deliveries. Made my day �bought another 300 @ 27.81 (day low so far :biggrin:).

    Model S Delivery Update
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The news/updates are positive on deliveries? Any idea why the stock is taking a beating today?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just technical.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    just plowed my entire life savings in. too much technical BS going on. sticking to a rule: under $28 buy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anything happen today to cause the drop or is this just the regular volatility that we expect from TSLA?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Forgotten is the income (it is, isn't it?) from reservations. Model X reservations are now around 1800. Around the start of the quarter they stood around 1200. (Source http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7535-Model-X-Tally). Each is $40,000. That's an extra $24M in Tesla's bank account this quarter.

    Edit: Woah. I just checked and non-Sig Model X reservations have opened up since I last looked. Those are only $5,000. So the above is terribly suspect unless the non-Sig only just opened up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I reserved a non-sig on day 1, $5K at the release.

    Edit: Also Tesla does not book deposits as income. They are listed as a liability until the car is delivered.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Model X Sigs required a $40k deposit. Non-Sigs have always required only a $5k deposit (just like the S).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Depends, if they don't hit the 500 mark for Q3 then some may see it as a negative indicator.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm frozen at the moment. Too much macro-economic stuff happening this week to get me to trade. German Supreme Court ruling on the ESM and FOMC meeting. Market could rocket up or tank in the next few days regardless of what Tesla does.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a limit order in to buy 50 shares at $25. That order expired while I was out of town. I'm just going to sit tight for the time being and see what happens. If TSLA takes a hit and drops because of Europe, I'll jump in and buy some more. Of course, if that happens, all sorts of stocks will be bargains until things come back, assuming they do, and there's not another global collapse.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As far as the balance sheet calculations I don't recall anyone accounting for the income they will be generating from service center fees and annual maintenance fees

    from my Samsung galaxy s3
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like his math, and its fairly useful for projecting what Tesla needs to be profitable.

    But he is making some unfounded assumptions and trying too hard with his analysis of what Elon meant about Tesla "breaking even" with 8,000 units.

    First, $70k/unit is an assumption that even he admits is probably to the low side. Model S Performance is a bargain compared to the ICE competition, with a lower MSRP and vastly lower operating costs. It's the one price point in the model line that is an unambiguous win for Tesla, so sales seem likely to me to skew in that direction and for larger batteries in general. Obviously the greatest consumer savings come with the smaller batteries, but the barriers to making a sale are far higher.

    Personally, I'd figure that the median sale price will be ~$80k. The least sophisticated analysis is 8,000 X $80,000 = $640,000,000 and $640,000,000 X 0.25 = $160,000,000 in gross margin from Model S.

    However, he makes a basic mistake at this point in his calculations when he decides to look at R&D+SG&A=$111,000,000/qtr.

    The mistake is that there is actual guidance from Tesla regarding R&D+SG&A going forward, and it doesn't track with his assumption. R&D is the big number, accounting for nearly $70 million, and Tesla is projecting that it will fall ~20% going forward into Q3 because Model S is done.

    So right away R&D+SG&A=$97,000,000/qtr, which is ~$55million lower annual costs than he is assuming.

    The SG&A portion of that is just $36,000,000/qtr which works out to ~$144 million/year. Based on his median sales price Tesla has ~$140million/year in gross margin from Model S (@25% gross margin), while my assumption nets ~$160million. SG&A is what Tesla requires to survive and generate revenue. If you cut R&D to $0 it seems to me that $144million in expenses can be covered by $140-$160 million in revenue, especially when you add in Tesla's other revenue sources.

    Musk was adamant that they didn't feel they would need to get outside money to cover operations. He also said they might choose to get outside money for R&D. This is consistent with the view that they are looking much more at SG&A than they are at R&D+SG&A when making that calculation.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I suspect that the R&D people are simply moving onto Model X or Gen III. So, Tesla will still have that expense, just not charged against Model S. Unless there's some significant non-employee/contracted R&D expenses that simply go away.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But hopefully a lot of the R&D expenses on the Model S can be leveraged for the Model X and Gen3. They have been touting the reuse of the skateboard platform for quite sometime now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And they have now have the space, employees, and tools. Both software and physical tools. I have heard some of the specialized aerodynamic software is outrageously expensive but you gotta have it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And...we don't have to guess because as pointed out above, they have told investors during conference calls to expect R&D to fall off somewhat (though not completely). I don't remember if 20% was the number or not, but you can certainly go look it up rather than thank guesses.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    R&D is expected to decline 20% in Q3, to be partiality offset by some increase in Model X R&D. From the 2nd Quarter 10-Q:

    "As we transition to volume production of Model S, Model S related manufacturing costs, including direct parts, material and labor costs, manufacturing overhead and amortized tooling, and logistics, will be fully reflected in cost of automotive sales during the second half of 2012. As such, Model S related research and development expenses will decline in the third quarter while cost of automotive sales is expected to increase. Selling, general and administrative expenses should continue to rise moderately on a quarterly basis as we continue to increase our vehicle selling and servicing capabilities."

    "We have significantly increased our research and development efforts for the Model S in recent quarters, which has resulted in an increase in our research and development expenses. We anticipate that our research and development expenses will decrease by about 20% during the third quarter of 2012 as our Model S manufacturing expenses will be reflected in cost of goods sold rather than in research and development, and as one time Model S development expenses decline. This decrease will be partially offset by additional research and development expenses that we expect to incur in relation to the development of future vehicles, such as Model X. In addition, future equity awards may result in an increase in research and development expenses."
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Who was surprised?
    Yes that would be exciting, if it were true. :rolleyes:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I missed the bold portion when I reviewed the letter to shareholders. Equity awards are non-cash and don't affect liquidity. So thats another tool that Tesla can use to drive down R&D cash expenses without actually killing their R&D effort.

    I was actually prepared to argue that Tesla could opt to shift a lot of near term compensation for their engineers into equity to get them over the hump, but I didn't realize their shareholder letter was signaling that they might do that. Of course that sentence could also mean they just plan to give out stock options without reducing cash compensation, but I can't help but look at their liquidity issues and think they are looking hard at ways to decrease cash outlays while keeping up operations.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It was a little over a year ago that I got my Roadster and started looking at TSLA, thinking that I wanted to own stock in the company that made the car I enjoyed so much. Since then, I've been reading this thread and all the predictions that the stock would skyrocket as soon as X happened, mostly related to the Model S. But as I look at the chart of TSLA over the past two years I see that it started out around 20, shot up to around 35, and since then it's just been bouncing around between around 22 and around 38. It's not really going anywhere. Just bouncing around.

    I believe in the company. I think they have good management and a good product in a market that has real challenges but also enormous potential. But I think that it's going to be a long time before the stock rises significantly. Of course people will make money, and others will lose money, speculating on the bounces. But I don't think the stock is going anywhere for a long time. Unless you're willing to gamble on the volatility, I think this stock is a very long-term investment.

    It's been fun following the ups and downs, but I think I'm tired of that. I have no intention of selling my shares unless for some reason I become disillusioned with the company, so I'm just going to leave the whole stock-following thing alone. Have fun, and good luck to everyone who's still actively trading.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    that could all be completely different in a year or two!
    An 'actual' product is being sold. I would have considered a roadster if it had any utility to it (doesn't hold dogs/luggage/can't sleep in it/big diesel truck vs it..ouch/comfort?/size/...but fun as hell and would have one if I was rich)

    the majority of people I speak with don't even know about the roadster (or tesla). mention EV and range and speed and they are all blown away!
    I still think we will see that first spike after the IPO happen again, but a MUCH bigger spike.
    with 2/3 short interest I don't see it not happening if the S gets to all(many) of its customers happily.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did anyone else see what Obama said this week...that he wanted to increase the tax credit for EVs from 7500 to 10,000?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it could. But what I see is a stock that continues to be extremely volatile as long as Tesla has a very small percentage of the overall car market, and that creeps up very slowly as that market share grows. That means opportunity for people who gamble on the short-term fluctuations, but no more opportunity than with any other volatile stock that responds more to the overall market than to its own fundamentals. And otherwise a very long-term opportunity for folks who believe that in a decade or three Tesla will be a major auto manufacturer.

    It has tremendous utility for me: It is my daily driver. It is the car I drive whenever I leave the house. I had to buy a battery minder for the Prius because it now gets driven so seldom. (Road trips to Canada in summer and parking at the airport if I fly somewhere.)

    More and more people approach me saying, "Wow! A Tesla. That's an amazing car!" Hardly anybody asks me if it's a Lotus or a Maserati anymore. Of course, I'm helping in a very small way by talking to anybody that's interested, and some who are not. And perhaps a few people Google Tesla after seeing my Roadster.

    The shorts are going to stay short for a very long time. If Tesla builds and sells 19,999 cars in 2013, they'll say "They failed to make their 20,000 goal." If two owners are unhappy about the arrangement of buttons or the color of the leather, the shorts will say "People don't like the car." If there's nothing negative reported, the shorts will talk about a car that costs $600 a year for maintenance and you have to pay $100 for a home visit because service centers are far away. The nay-sayers are nay-sayers by temperament. If the shorts are forced to cover, they'll compensate by going short again, at higher volume.

    The 2004 Prius had near 100% owner satisfaction, and yet I was told by ignorant people that owners were selling them in droves because the traction batteries were failing after a year. (Completely untrue.) People deny climate change and evolution and insist that hydrogen for FCVs is plentiful and invest in perpetual motion schemes. Ignorance is the natural condition of the human animal. It won't be the truth of the Model S that drives up the price of TSLA. It will be the slow and gradual growth of Tesla's market share, which will be limited by the public's inertia and the time it takes to generate revenue to plow back into building more production capacity. When the Freemont factory is operating at full capacity it will still represent a very small percentage of the auto market, and Tesla will still be a comparatively tiny company, still in its growth phase.

    Elon is in this for the long haul. He has a vision for the future and he knows it will take time, and he's going to build the company accordingly, which means plowing profits back into R&D and plant capacity to increase the product line, which means low or no dividends, and maybe diluting the stock by raising more capital. I support what he's doing because his track is to convert America to electric transportation, and he doesn't care if profits are deferred. If he's successful, the stock will be worth a lot in a decade or three, but it will be a slow growth. The spikes will be transitory, and more related to market conditions than to Tesla's incremental achievements.

    What this means to me is that anybody who expects to make a quick killing on Tesla stock is in for a disappointment, unless they hope to do it by gambling on the fluctuations. And in that case, they could lose as easily as win. But someone investing for the long term, buying now and holding for a decade or three, could see the kind of profits early Apple investors have had, assuming of course that Tesla fulfills my expectations and becomes a major auto maker in the long run.

    I wish all the luck in the world to people who think they can finance their Model S or Model X by speculating on TSLA. But I would not recommend it to anyone who does not have profound understanding of the market. And those folks neither need nor want my advice. Anyone else is more likely to lose their savings than to make a bundle. Put some TSLA in your retirement account as a risky but potentially big-growth stock. But I consider it foolish to regard it as a sure thing, or to put a large percentage of your savings in it. I've got 200 shares. I'll buy another 50 if it drops way low again. That's an insignificant part of my portfolio. My heirs will get the benefit because I won't live another 30 years. Ten would be pretty good, and twenty is unlikely. If I'm really lucky I might see the day when the public at large sees EVs the way they now see the Prius. When I bought mine, 99% of owners were liberal tree-huggers. Now my neighbors drive them. And that's what it will take before today's investors see serious gains.

    In Pushkin's short story, The Queen of Spades, the character Herman the German says "I refuse to risk the necessary in pursuit of the superfluous." When he violates that wise principle, he gets wiped out.

    Invest wisely and cautiously. If TSLA was a sure thing, bigger fish than us would already have bid up the price.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Look, shiny!"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @ daniel "But I would not recommend it to anyone who does not have profound understanding of the market. And those folks neither need nor want my advice. Anyone else is more likely to lose their savings than to make a bundle. Put some TSLA in your retirement account as a risky but potentially big-growth stock.�

    Agree, except trade/hold TSLA in your taxable account not a IRA/Roth so you can write off any losses�.it is a speculative stock at this point�even �Mad Money man� Jim Cramer see�s the stock as "too speculative". You should not invest more in TSLA than you can afford to lose (e.g. a 20-40% loss). Yes, it is possible to get a double or more BUT you must also be able to sustain a big loss as well!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He has been saying that for quite a while. Probably wont happen, and I don't think it should. EV's have to begin standing on their own merit.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think there will be a significant jump (~2x), not a skyrocket, when they are profitable. Right now there is only indications that they can be profitable. Until that point TSLA is a risk stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, if he wins reelection, it might happen. I can see a statement from Obama as follows: "I earned capital in this campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it enacting a progressive agenda. And that includes investing $588 million in funding for new vehicle technologies and enhancements to the existing electric vehicle tax incentive to help reach the goal of one million advanced technology vehicles on the road by 2015."

    Maybe I should defer to get my Model S in 2013 after all. I chose the 60 kWh pack so I could take delivery in 2012 and get the tax refund in 2013, but if Obama's proposal goes through, the tax refund will be converted into an instant rebate.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't let him buy your vote! It's not worth it!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Got my vote!

    from my Samsung galaxy s3
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, better than the alternative, sorry. At least he's pushing alternative technologies.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But at what point do you declare the company "profitable"? Tesla is not going to convert America's roads to EVs (Elon's stated objective) by building the S and the X and paying dividends. They're going to do it by plowing all profits back into growth for the next decade or three. And every new model, every new plant expansion, will be risky. They'd be "profitable" today if they'd stuck to building the Roadster, but that was never their plan. As soon as the Model S production is moving smoothly they'll get working on the X. And when that's in production and the kinks worked out, they'll be working on the GenIII and the pundits will be asking whether a mass-market EV will gain acceptance, and there won't be any profits because all the cash flow, and maybe some new investment along with it, will be going into plant to produce that car.

    Every new model that comes out will be more evidence to us EV enthusiasts that Tesla is on its way up, but the market will keep asking whether the next model will sell and whether Tesla can make a profit. The stock is not going to jump twofold just because cash flow on the Model S becomes positive.

    Profitability is like smut: We all think we know it when we see it, but everybody disagrees about what it is / when it exists.

    I hope I'm wrong and that TSLA doubles in value soon, and keeps going up. But I think that buying it with that expectation, as did one highly emotional poster, is setting oneself up for constant disappointment. I'm very bullish on Tesla. But it's a long-term bullishness, not short term.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'm opposed to all subsidies, rebates, tax credits, deductions, etc. They always have unintended consequences. I'll take all the credits and deductions they'll give me, but I favor a progressive, graduated tax structure with four lines and a table on the tax form:

    1. Your income:
    2. Look up your income on the table; enter the amount. That's your total tax:
    3. How much was withheld, or paid as estimated tax:
    4. Subtract (3) from (2). This is what you owe: (If negative, this is your refund.)

    Then support alternative energy technologies and other national priorities directly, allowing an accounting of cost vs. benefit, something that's nearly impossible when tax breaks are used to promote priorities.

    Sadly, no candidate will ever advocate such a sensible plan. (And no, I have no interest in public office.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As in alternative reality, funded by China?

    Sorry, I'll stop now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tweedledum and Tweedledee
    Agreed to have a battle!
    For Tweedledum said Tweedledee
    Had spoiled his nice new rattle.
    Just then flew down a monstrous crow,
    As black as a tar-barrel!
    Which frightened both the heroes so,
    They quite forgot their quarrel.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, while I agree with your view that dividends and what-not is not in Tesla's plan and also that all profit will be re-invested in R&D and future models, what I think is important to bear in mind is that the current stock price is based on the current situation: a very uncertain one where a lot of people are thinking that TSLA will fail/go bancrupt (think sky high short interest). With that in mind, when (in my opinion not if) Tesla can show profitability, even if all that money is plowed in to growth and expansion, the situation will be very different: A lot of people who have been waiting on the side-lines will invest with exactly your sentiment: Long term bullishness. Remember, there are a lot of smart investors out there, not everyone is thinking only short-term, people have learned to look for the next Apple, Intel or whatever when that kind of company is in it's early phase. In my view those of us who are already long have maybe found just that, and we have bought in reasonably early, all be it taking a bit more risk, but the way I see it is that the price can only go up over time and I think that in the short-term (think 1 year) a two-fold increase in the price is not unlikely so long as thing go according to plan.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They made a profit on the Roadster but plowed it all back into building the Model S. So your criterion has already been met. And the profit on the S will go into producing the X, and so on, for a very long time.

    I agree, but I just think it will happen slowly.

    I think it will take longer, because Tesla is in it for the long haul. They want to prove to car buyers that they have a good product. But they don't care all that much about proving to the stock market that their stock should be valued higher. And the next project will always be risky, keeping the market wary.

    People who predict a rapid rise in the stock price make the company look like it's failing to meet expectations when the price does not rise. What I'm saying is that this is a process of slow growth over the long term by design, because the goals are so ambitious, and so share price will take a long time to rise, but the rise will be steady over the long term.

    The stock market is dominated by people who believe that EVs are impractical, and this will keep share price down until there is a gradual shift in public perception. That will come, but not in a year and maybe not in five. Remember that any analysis of Tesla's prospects depends on the analyst's opinion regarding public acceptance of EVs. And even if Tesla produces and sells 5,000 Model S this year and 20,000 next year, that's still too few to gauge general public acceptance.

    It took the Prius several years to go mainstream, and the only difference between it and another sedan was that it burns less gas. It will take 5 to 10 years before John Q. Public goes from saying "That's a cool car but I need thus-and-such" to actually considering buying an EV.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    When I said make a profit. I meant a profit on a quarterly statement. They can't continually operate off of loans, and fund raising. Eventually their bottom line has to be black. When that happens I expect about x2 of their then current stock price.

    I think that may happen around Q3 of 2013 hopefully.
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)