1/1/2015
guest Yep. Today I decided to buy June and a little bit of April with my proceeds from the week.�
1/1/2015
guest Bought some stock today at around 214 during the dip and picked up some Apr 19 215's. May is looking pretty expensive even with the dip below 215.�
1/1/2015
guest Switzerland - Model S registrations Jan and Feb 2014; official numbers:
January: 16
February: 28
44 cars in two months with a MoM increase of 75% is certainly a good indicator of the swiss market's demand. March figures still outstanding - should be available soon and will update you all shortly.
to recall here:
in 2013 (1st deliveries in late august) registrations: 213�
1/1/2015
guest Another thing to keep a look out for - AMZN, NFLX, FB have all broken their 100 day EMAs and are dropping like rocks. TSLA in comparison is using its 50 day EMA as support. That to me is a very good sign of strength in an overall sell-off in the Nasdaq.�
1/1/2015
guest notices that as well- looks like a risk off rotation continuing for a while. good opportunities in here�
1/1/2015
guest I think that's a great word for how this market feels right now -- rotation. Agree that opportunities exist, hoping I catch them on the right side.�
1/1/2015
guest The Street Insider posted, with a reference to GreenCarReports.com, that state of CA run out of funds for EV incentives. I doubt that it will even dent sales of MS in CA, but that what is being implied in the post:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Rumors/UPDATE%3A+Tesla+Motors+%28TSLA%29+Slumps%3B+Key+Market+Said+to+Run+Out+of+Incentive+Funding/9353803.html�
1/1/2015
guest Great minds!?! Doubled my Sept 220s and 240s on the dip.�
1/1/2015
guest Here's a direct link to the Green Car Reports article: CA Electric-Car Incentive Update: Funds Run Out, Green Stickers Gone
Here's the key sentence indicating that new EV buyers in California will receive their rebate checks in September:
The California Center for Sustainable Energy, which administers the program, is now advising plug-in buyers that if they applied for their rebates on or after March 28, they will receive their rebate checks in September.
And here's the direct link to CCSE webpage that was the source for that information: http://energycenter.org/clean-vehicle-rebate-project
�
1/1/2015
guest Top Gear UK has a take on the Model S - finally. And it's as good as one could have hoped.
Maserati Ghibli takes on Tesla Model S - BBC Top Gear�
1/1/2015
guest At such a loss what to do - sept/june 240?220? etc�
1/1/2015
guest Elon used to own a McLaren F1!? Yeah I think its fair to say he "gets" cars!�
1/1/2015
guest "The Silicon Valley interloper has changed everything." Wow - from Top Gear�
1/1/2015
guest Jim Cramer. Republican Governors. Republicans running for Governor. Bill O'Reilly. Top Gear.
One by one, prominent vocal skeptics are changing their tune. It's good business to be on the winning team.�
1/1/2015
guest Kind of quiet on the Musk family road trip...thought they would leverage more publicity from it. Perhaps just keeping it more private and enjoying the family time.�
1/1/2015
guest What happened here? Radio silence on a NASDAQ bloodbath day, TSLA down.... and nothing here?�
1/1/2015
guest Bot bash based on technicals? I have no idea what is going on, but I expect volatility for no apparent reason with momentum stocks.�
1/1/2015
guest At this point I don't think there's much if any publicity from another cross-country trip. Between the "Frunk is my Suitcase" blogger, the Father/Daughter team that went East to West, and Tesla's own run, the novelty of going coast to coast on all-electric is, well, no longer a novelty! The future is here.�
1/1/2015
guest According to my Schwab weekly position summary email I just received, TSLA was down 0.1% for the week (Close Friday last week to close Friday today). If I hadn't been watching the stock every day, it would seem like zero happened with it. Last Friday the closing price was $212.37. Today it was $212.23.
I think the weekly intraday high was $234.77 and the intraday low was $206.67. Lot of drama during the week with the stock (at least for me!)�
1/1/2015
guest In a way, the virtual zero net change doesn't surprise me given the lack of any significant news.
Positive catalysts for moving TSLA higher: a strong Q1 showing, positive Gigafactory news in the form of agreement reached with investors/partners, Model X progress.
The volatility is interesting but I hope people here don't get freaked out!�
1/1/2015
guest Why are any of these foregone conclusions? Why isn't it just as likely that TSLA will have a weak Q1 showing, Gigafactory news comes in the form of more partner waffling / logistical hurdles, or Model X experiences further delays?
Further, why should the above "positive catalysts" result in additional upside when they would merely be Tesla accomplishing what is already expected of them. To me, the risk appears to be to the downside on these items. I see the NHTSA "all clear" as a perfect illustration of the fact that a catalyst everyone expects is no catalyst at all.
Not a short and not trying to be inflammatory, just trying to see what the rationale is here and make sure everyone is looking at things objectively.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree that remaining objective is important and I think we've failed to do that here sometimes (especially near ATH's). However, I definitely think partner confirmation for the gigafactory would be a huge positive catalyst, especially if they are big names. The Panasonic potential "waffling" stories over the last couple weeks did cause the stock to fall and so there is definitely room to the upside should they (and/or other partners) confirm their partnership as it adds more credibility to Tesla and to the likelihood of the eventual existence of the gigafactory.�
1/1/2015
guest I actually have a different theory as to why things sold off so much. The employment report just confirmed fears for many. Some people think Tesla is going to go with a dealership model based on some publications recently and more importantly, I think it has to do with taxes. I think a lot of people reinvested hoping to make an extra buck before we have to pay the man and they are now raising capital because the deadline is looming and it takes time for funds to clear.�
1/1/2015
guest If the shares remain held, then no gain is realized, and there are no taxes to be paid.�
1/1/2015
guest All being said, it would make sense that at least some of the weakness that we are seeing in momentum names relates to profit taking for the purpose of paying taxes given their dramatic run over the past year.�
1/1/2015
guest I think what he was suggesting was that some investors were effectively "free riding" with their 2013 tax responsibilities and taking speculative positions that they intended to liquidate before this year's filing deadline.
Not sure I agree with this specific take on things, but it does make sense that there'd be something of a selloff in April following a year when many large gains were likely realized.�
1/1/2015
guest what i meant was, i suspect many (like myself) took profits when the f*res last year hit, booked profits, accumulated and went back in or went back in without setting aside enough cash to pay�
1/1/2015
guest Agreed. You can add my name to Aznt's list,�
1/1/2015
guest I don't think these are foregone conclusions, but I do think that their announcement will boost stock price. They are possibilities, not certainties. The Gigafactory in particular has garnered a lot of skepticism from the media, and the Panasonic waffling has fueled further doubt. If Tesla pulls it off the future looks a lot more certain to investors.
NHTSA was not a price booster and I did not believe it would be in the past 2 months or so. Why? Because (1) no fyre incidents occurred in the past few months (2) the news cycle moves fast and washed away short-term memory of the incidents. Basically, people ceased to fear fyres, so NHTSA clearance did not have fears to erase. If NHTSA had cleared when people were still abuzz about the accidents, late last year, I think that would have pushed the stock back up.
In any case, no one should sweat this stuff unless they are active traders or buying shorter term options. The Tesla plan still has at least 4 years left, and possibly 5+ to get BEVs into the mass market. Patience is likely, though not certainly, to be rewarded.�
1/1/2015
guest Why aren't you short? Your view point would entirely support that (I am not saying I agree with it). You don't need anyone's approval to be short, but reading your post I find it hard to believe your not.�
1/1/2015
guest I don't agree that my post would suggest I'm net short.
I am not short because I still believe the net balance of news and sentiment around TSLA is likely to be neutral or positive in the next few months (and obviously extremely positive in the long term). Elon/Tesla have also demonstrated a knack for pulling rabbits out of their hat and demolishing short positions without warning.
However, I am not confident enough in the next few months to let my long position go unhedged, or open any leveraged long positions (e.g. short-term options). I don't see any "bankable" positive catalysts in the short term, and TSLA will not fare well if the NASDAQ continues to demonstrate volatility.
I agree that there's no inherent shame in being short and I wouldn't hesitate to admit if I was. If you really need proof PM me and I'll send you a screenshot of my current TSLA position via my broker.�
1/1/2015
guest Not really about Tesla, but very relevant because of Nasdaq/Tech/Downtrend etc
From BBC:
�
1/1/2015
guest I believe if there are giant upswings in the volatility of the Nasdaq than TSLA will fare quite well
�
1/1/2015
guest My kristal ball view
TSLA reached ATH on the first news of gigafactory, back in February. As soon as the news on gigafactory fizzled out, the stock retreated. If we get any positive confirmation on gigafactory build, we may get a short squeeze.
Good time to buy some leaps. Brave ones might buy calls.�
1/1/2015
guest I have sold my shares and bought Jan 15 leaps
must be the atmosphere down here�
1/1/2015
guest Have to admit I'm a bit worried that we're down 2% in the pre-market. Once again, it seems like a whole-market thing, which I think is the main risk at the moment.�
1/1/2015
guest FYI, I went ahead and created a new thread to discuss macroeconomic forces and analysis, in case anyone is interested.
We dipped to $206 pre-market on no TSLA-specific news I can find. Other "high-fliers" like NFLX are up pre-market. Anyone making moves at the open?�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks, Flux. A pre-earnings drop in the absence of macro forces doesn't really make sense unless deliveries in the US have been dramatically lower than in previous quarters. This could certainly be the case due to Tesla prioritizing European deliveries, but currently there's no information out about this. If someone has an inkling or estimate of the US delivery numbers in Jan-March, this would be a very lucrative piece of information.�
1/1/2015
guest Good luck today folks. I hope everyone has some sort of stress reliever handy. :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest Russian aktivists stormed Donetsk government buildings during the weekend and declared independence with referendum set on 11th of May. That crapshoot might have something to do with the markets...�
1/1/2015
guest Bought $210 weeklies at the open just because, makin' money already.�
1/1/2015
guest You have bigger balls than I. Kudos�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks man. I just went to help my kid brush his teeth and made a 175% return on those 210s in that time. Feels good.�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats!
I need more kids.�
1/1/2015
guest I'd just like to say that IMO TSLA seems little crazy right now because the stuff that everyone cares about is exactly the stuff that Tesla can't talk about.
Gigafactory prep and negotiations.
Bears have gotten themselves in a real knot with speculating weak demand, which of course is nonsense par excellence. Most likely the rush of Norwegian deliveries at the end of March were on top of guidance. Tesla would not have risked including those in the 6400 guided that close to the quarterly deadline, especially considering they were reportedly dragging in staff from all over to help perform the deliveries.
I think if one can bear the bears dominating the news flow TSLA will do very nicely when the curtain is lifted on gigafactory progress. Buy on the dips seems sensible.�
1/1/2015
guest I hope you're right but I don't follow your logic that dragging staff in from all over to deliver cars means they were NOT acting desperately.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm considering buying some puts or something. Normally when I do that things reverse and go up�
1/1/2015
guest I did that first thing this morning. By some stroke of luck, my broker had to review the order before it went through, and I ended up getting them near $210. For some reason last night, I just felt uber exposed with all of my current positions (Mostly some very red LEAPS and a few June $270's) and decided I could not go unhedged any longer.
The toughest part for me will be waiting this out and hoping that things will turn around over the course of the year. I'm a reed in the stream when it comes to these short term movements, and I've already resigned my June 270's to the outer fringes of hope for a good return.
All in all, just a pretty awful day. I think I have one green stock on my watchlist.�
1/1/2015
guest please, then I beg you- justdoit�
1/1/2015
guest Haha. I actually was looking at weekly 190 puts. We were under $204 then. As I was looking at them we started to climb up... over $207 now. You're welcome! haha jk�
1/1/2015
guest Hope you sold at least part of your position while you were up!�
1/1/2015
guest Unfortunately that's a big "Doh!" Serves me right for thinking, "hey, maybe I'll leave my desk again today, things should be fine." Those 210's are about back where I started. Putin is a jerk.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, I bought some at $204, so I may share your pain moving thru the week.�
1/1/2015
guest Still, it is kind of refreshing that TSLA is holding up so well relative to the rest of the market, unlike Friday. Hey, we could be pulling a KNDI (j/k, no we couldn't)�
1/1/2015
guest ckessel, haven you started buying puts? or sold calls?�
1/1/2015
guest I was tapped out a while back on the way down. I have no more plays to make for a few months in TSLA. I'm all in on OTM Jan 2015 LEAPS, so following ken's rolling LEAPS plan that would get shifted in sometime on/after the June timeframe. Though at this rate there may not be much to shift. Hopefully this downtrend lasts no longer than the last one.�
1/1/2015
guest I think it is a fair point that this company does not plan a panic to achieve guidance. Instead they issue guidance with safety margins.
What they have been observed to do though is to pull stunts to exceed guidance, for example selling out of service loaners in Q2 2013 despite the service department pleading to hang on to them. I think I can feel an air of excitement about landing the boats in Norway with days to spare and pulling in staff to deliver them, not a sense of panic.�
1/1/2015
guest With my large investment in TSLA Leaps I hope you are correct. However I suspect an unbiased, rational, third party wouldn't be so sure.�
1/1/2015
guest One caveat to this would be that the production rate could have possibly was lower in the last 3.5 weeks of the quarter because TM started adding the additional aluminum/titanium shielding on March 6th.�
1/1/2015
guest I don't think so. Tesla's production capability should be ONLY limited by battery supply not for those minor things.�
1/1/2015
guest Don't you think that they needed to change the process to accommodate assembly of additional parts?? I.e. the slower production rate was NOT because there was shortage of shields, but because production process needed to be changed to accommodate their installation.�
1/1/2015
guest Maybe. But let's say if there is 20% production capability idle due to shortage of battery, i.e. 5 days 80% production can actually be done by 4 days 100% production. Then even the factory shut down by 1 day to accomodate the new production process, the original production rate still be caught up in a week. 20% is an arbitrary number for illustration purpose, actually this is kind of surprise not mentioned in Q1 guidance, I think Elon and the team might figure out a way to absorb the impact as much as possible. They all know production rate ramp up is crucial throughout 2014, 2015, 2016 until GEN III.�
1/1/2015
guest For what it is worth: Business Leasing through 'Tesla Finance': http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tesla-business-leasing�
1/1/2015
guest I would be curious to hear from long term TSLA inventors at point or price do you plan to sell you shares?
Assume there is no macroeconomic event that takes down the entire market and Tesla executes their guided plan of Model E and Gigafactory.
Do you have a price target/market cap target where you plan to sell?�
1/1/2015
guest Sell when the growth story plays out. Otherwise never sell. If they become a successful car company with a 100b market cap, they will offer a dividend.�
1/1/2015
guest +1. My 77 year-old mother asks me every time on the phone, "Have you sold any TSLA yet?" To which I reply, "No." And when she asks why, I say the story hasn't changed. It hasn't. It keeps getting better, hence the appreciating stock price.�
1/1/2015
guest Price target/market cap targets can be good if one has a specific goal in mind. For example: will sell when shares worth enough to pay for child's college tuition or when shares worth enough to buy house. I like this kind of target because even if the shares go up more, you can know that you met your goal.
Otherwise, I'd say sell when the company appears to be dominating and it's products have become the standard. iPhone is one analogy. iPhone started out as the underdog in 2007 and was dominating by 2011. It was *the* device everyone had to have (and was buying), and it seemed like Apple could do no wrong. Then Samsung really pushed the Galaxy S III and Apple's dominance was called into question.
My rough guess is that if Model E and it's crossover derivative steal large numbers of people away from Accord/Camry/CR-V/RAV4 and equivalents over a period of a few years, that's the time to begin exiting. Time scale is a bit different from Apple because automobile turnover is slower than mobile phone turnover. A lot of people get a new phone every 2 years or even every year. Automobiles are kept for longer: 36 month leases, or people who buy for 5 or even 10 year periods.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm not selling for years and years. I think Tesla will be wildly successful and the party hasn't even begun yet. And even though I hold a substantial amount of shares on margin I'm not selling in a recession either because I think TSLA will hold up ok. The reason is because even if we have a huge recession, the worldwide demand for the cars will still be huge and people will still buy cars. Wealth is "never" destroyed, it just changes form/hands.
My prediction: Tesla will one day be the biggest company in the world. It's not just about selling cars, but think battery business, drive train licensing etc.
Musk has got this one figured out so I'm not parting from my shares!�
1/1/2015
guest The past week or so has been quite rough for TSLA and a lot of the momentum names, but I think the worst may be over. There was pretty high volume during the bottom today between 10-11 EST (higher than during the big plunge on Friday), so I'm leaning towards bullish again (had been bearish from Friday onward).�
1/1/2015
guest I tune my investment to the pitch of the founder and ceo. There will be no selling here until GENIII and associated goals are realized- whatever value that might produce. I intend to take my portion of Elon's compensation associated with that state of Tesla affairs�
1/1/2015
guest I will get out of TSLA when people on basketball forums start touting it as a "safe" investment.
No kidding, one called the top for Apple with a post like that.
When all of the shorts are gone and nobody is bad-mouthing TSLA anymore, then is when I will sell.
Though it may take a decade or more to get there.�
1/1/2015
guest It will take tesla a while to reach world dominance, as i expect it to do. it will take a lot longer for the tesla to get there, however, than it did apple because of the capital/time/supplier resources needed to grow. at the same time, however, i don't think that tesla will be unseated from the top as quickly as some say apple was because of the same reasons.
if another car company comes out with superior EV technology (which i don't see in the foreseaable future), i think this still helps tesla. it just hurts ICE manufacturers more.
people have made the claim that tesla is a technology company more than a car company. i disagree. it is fundamentally a car company and its evolution will reflect that. it might also be an energy storage company, but we still have to see how that plays out.�
1/1/2015
guest Just wrote the largest check ever written in my lifetime... - to US Treasury. On behalf of myself, and US Treasury, - huge thank you to the TMC community. Without gleaning from the wealth of experience and information at TMC this would not have been possible. :biggrin:�
1/1/2015
guest Congratulations.
I'd like to thank TMC members also for their expertise, thoughts, and camaraderie. It has been both enjoyable and profitable, which is truly rare and appreciated.
I'm doing an electronic transfer on Friday... had to sell some things I didn't want to on Monday to make sure the funds were in the right place in time.�
1/1/2015
guest Congrats, vgrin!�
1/1/2015
guest Great attitude.
This tax season has got me thinking a lot about moving out of California with its high state income tax.�
1/1/2015
guest We should pool our money and move into a solar-powered TSLA-owners compound in sleepyhead's backyard of Austin TX, where the gigafactory will be built.�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah, come to Estonia with delayed taxes and full investment capabilities. Not thinking about tax at all�
1/1/2015
guest Or move it to Switzerland where there is no capital gains tax at all�
1/1/2015
guest Mario, how does delayed taxes work in Estonia?�
1/1/2015
guest Breakout please!�
1/1/2015
guest You declare that account XXX is an investment account. Afterwards you only have to declare the deposits and withdrawals that aren't related to trading. When withdrawals exceed deposits you pay taxes on the excess. So very basic and easy. They absolutely don't care what you trade, when you trade or how much profit/loss you make off of your trades. As long as you've put in more money than you've taken out you're good. Take out too much, pay taxes the following year. The things I've needed to declare are actual deposits and withdrawals when I move cash in and out, the monthly account maintenance fees that are unrelated to actual trading and that's it. Even commission on trades is considered financial transaction cost and therefore doesn't have to be declared. Moving money between investment accounts is tax free and what counts is the total sum across all investment accounts.�
1/1/2015
guest Speaking about state taxes, I was expecting substantial tax bill for PA as well, but to my surprise, needed to pay only $150 on top of the witholding (PA has flat tax of approx 3%). It turns out that a lot of my losses were disalowed for the purpose of Federal Taxes because of the wash sale rules, which came into play because I sold a lot of calls on the morning of seconf US fire at a loss, and then kept buying March and April, 2014 calls when TSLA was tumbling down to lower hundreds. All this happend with less than 30 days between the transactions, so a lot of losses were disalowed.
It turns out that for the purposes of PA taxes, losses are treated differently, and while my Federal Tax Return shows substantial gains, the PA Return shows losses! Go figure... I am so glad that Fidelity allows for direct transfer of information to the TurboTax, so all of this was handled automatically.�
1/1/2015
guest I have a view, but first ...
I posted a comment over the weekend suggesting there was too much group think here on the investment threads of TMC and several people got a bit defensive. Sorry if I was upsetting to some of you. I thought I was simply pointing out the obvious. This being the "social" stock thread, I hope my comments below will be read with a different light.
(I somewhat regret my post over the weekend because why bother pointing out something that upsets people? After all this place is named Tesla Motors Club. If you don't agree there is whole lot of group think here about this stock, just review the responses to post #2624 above)
Don't read me wrong below you guys. I am very much a fan of Elon Musk, his unbelievable achievements, and the start of the whole EV revolution. Our world clearly needs to move away from fossil fuels ASAP. Jesus, just look at the pollution levels in China, corals dying in our vast oceans due to CO2 absorption, everywhere ice caps melting, etc, etc. Tesla Gen 3 cannot arrive soon enough. The Model S and SpaceX are fantastic achievements, Elon Musk is the most incredible tech CEO of the past 80+ years.
Now. TSLA stock. That's a whole different issue.
Many here drives the $100k Model S. To answer the question clmason posted above, I would suggest TSLA longs and shorts pay attention to the Nissan LEAF. Carlos Ghosen currently operates three battery factories supplying the LEAF. He too is working hard on cell chemistry, form factors, and cost reduction.
Tesla's Gen 3 is still many many years away. At least 3, perhaps 4+ years away. (Why? Partial answer: Panasonic)
By then if the Nissan LEAF achieves a range of 130-150 miles (it's 80+ today) it will definitely be a threat to the Model E. Nissan has dropped LEAF's price aggressively in the past 12 months (partly because it was able to reduce the cost of its batteries). Today you can put $3000 down and lease the LEAF for $89, $129, or $179 per month before sales tax (choose from models S, SV, or SL).
I saw the ad with my own eyes. When the promotion is on it's $89 per month!
The talk of disruption is very fashionable today. The LEAF starting from the low-end at $89/month could very well disrupt the Model E before the first Model E is even produced.
Carlos Ghosen definitely sees what's happening. In the near future the LEAF will improve in range, styling, and price.
I have driven the Model S several times. It is a fantastic $100k EV. I have leased the LEAF almost two years. The LEAF too is a fantastic EV. (I agree its exterior styling totally sucks. But the rest of the car is pretty fantastic for the price. The LEAF too is a joy to drive vs. an ICE car of similar size and weight)
Elon Musk would much rather not have to build the Gigafactory. He would much rather just go to the market place, specify the chemistry, order those 18650 cells from multiple suppliers. Wasn't 18650 supposed to be a commodity form factor various vendors can crank out? But that's not the reality today because the truth is more complex than that when the chemistry has to be changed to adapt to EVs.
Carlos Ghosen understood this many years ago. That's why he has three battery factories operational today supplying the LEAF.
On the one hand Elon Musk desperately wants to drive down battery cost to save the planet. On the other hand when battery cost is finally driven down, the EV market will be intensely competitive (translation: low margins).
An added complexity is Elon's long-term interest is not always 100% aligned with long-term TSLA stock holders. Elon's goal is to get all ICE makers to convert to EV ASAP. That may not be exactly good for TSLA stock holders when he achieves his goal.
When it comes to stocks, any stock, my hummingbirdass timid whisper to clmason is to do your own homework, think logically for yourself, seek out and understand naysayers point of views, and be nimble. Be ready to change your mind when the facts change. After all this is tech land and this stock currently does have a high P/S ratio.
I am way late to this wild orgy party you old timers are having since the stock was under $40 a share a year ago. I only know one thing certain: I am a total idiot for missing the 5x run up.�
1/1/2015
guest Might I suggest you watch our recent Google Hangout with guest speaker Capitalist Oppressor before you put your investment dollars behind Nissan's battery tech being a credible threat to Tesla and the 18650 platform. Welcome to the forums.
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor - YouTube�
1/1/2015
guest I think the point of Leaf as a competitor is so-so. Those three battery factories don't crank out nearly enough batteries to make a decent dent in global car sales. The gigafactory will produce more than the whole 2013 production combined globally including the Leaf factories. Therefore the amount of cars it can produce will be higher, it is going to be a decent sedan (20% reduction of Model S) and will have a decent range (150+ miles) with a supercharger network built out. The leaf has to date sold ~96k cars. That's 22k in 2011, 27k in 2012 and 47k in 2013. They can in theory build 250k cars a year @ 80 mile range. Going to 160 mile range that's reduced to 125k. Tesla plans to sell 500k cars from the Gen-III single factory. And even if they both were combined that's still less than 1% of global car sales per annum.
No, I'm not worried about Nissan Leaf.�
1/1/2015
guest The LEAF disrupting Model E before it even comes out? Wow. I'll just leave it at that for now.�
1/1/2015
guest I think it's easy to come onto a Tesla forum and point out that most people here have a pro-Tesla bias. The thing is TSLA has come along much farther than even the most optimistic among us thought it would a year ago.�
1/1/2015
guest I think that all this discussion is moot, because the automobile market is HUGE, and even with several compelling electric cars offered in each category it will take decades before the production will meet the demand, given Lifetime parity in cost with ICE. The market place is big enough to accommodate more than one entrant.
The attrition will be killing companies who are unwilling or incapable to let ICE go.�
1/1/2015
guest The Leaf is a good car and Carlos Ghosn is the second-best auto CEO out there. I have nothing but respect for what he's doing - except showing the Infiniti LE concept, saying it will have the same drivetrain as a Leaf but be way more expensive, and then deciding it wasn't ready for prime time and delaying the project several years.
I don't think the Leaf will quite be a competitor for the Model E, the Model E will be a "premium" brand whereas the Leaf will be a consumer brand. Assuming EV prices go down over the next few years, the Model E will be in the price range of the i3, and the Leaf will be several thousand dollars cheaper than either. The Model E will be a better car than the Leaf. And there's no reason to think that EV sales in general can't increase enough to cover both models. In fact, the existence of the Leaf *helps* EV sales to increase enough to cover both models. The Leaf may well be helping Tesla, by giving people an entry into the EV market at a lower price point, or earlier, so they can see what it's all about (this also is true with the Volt, there are innumerable Volt owners who move on to buy a Tesla, or who plan to buy one as their next car, etc. - I call the Volt "training wheels" for an EV).
So I do not see the Leaf as competition, and I don't think Ghosn sees Tesla as competition currently. Both companies are benefitting each others' plans on this front.
It is most certainly in every long-term TSLA stockholder's interest to get all ICE makers to convert to EV ASAP. TSLA stockholders breathe air. If it costs me some of my investment account in order to stop 1/8th of the overall deaths worldwide (according to a recent WHO report which attributes 1/8 of world deaths to poor air quality due to dirty air), then I'm certainly willing to spend that money. And once EVs are dominant and I've made my money on Tesla then I can move on to the next cool investment idea.
Not to mention, the gigafactory also works as a hedge against this. If all other automakers start making EVs, and if Tesla turns out to be the lead EV battery maker, then they can still make money off of other companies' cars by supplying their batteries. It's pretty win-win.�
1/1/2015
guest Its logic like this that makes me cringe a little... There is no reason to think that other car manufacturers will buy batteries from Tesla, or even use the same chemistry/technology that Tesla uses.
Furthermore, the idea that by owning an EV, or the entire world using EVs, makes the world a greener place is far from reality. Yea maybe one day when all of the world's energy is solar, wind and hydro that may be true. But that is a lonnng time from now (several decades at the very minimum). The recycling process of the metal casings for batteries, the car body etc. are all extremely wasteful, not to mention getting electricity from the US grid...
Finally, the name of the game is to make money, not helping the world. Investing in tesla because you think the company will do well, and you want to make money off it is fine. To think that by doing so you are saving the world is just fuel for the bears to feed on.�
1/1/2015
guest Except the GF is supposed to run on renewable solar and wind electric power, and do the recycling of battery materials. Now, if only there was some way to provide battery backup power for the factory ... :tongue:�
1/1/2015
guest When Life Gives You Lemons... | Blog | Tesla Motors
"It's also of interest to note that this particular lawyer filed a lemon law suit against Volvo in February last year � on behalf of the very same client."
http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/volvo-lemon-law.pdf
Wow!!�
1/1/2015
guest I must say, Tesla PR has come a long way in the past 12 months. Great response!�
1/1/2015
guest Game, set, match indeed.�
1/1/2015
guest I think this is the new hire by Elon working perfectly. Notice that the last few blog posts have been from Tesla Motors Team and not Elon Musk as previously�
1/1/2015
guest I like the part about the fuse blowing 3 times, then they installed tamper tape, and hasn't been an issue with the fuse since
Someone's working with a shady lawyer looking for payday...�
1/1/2015
guest Latest short interest figures released today, about 25.7 million shares were short as of 3/31 settlement. That's a 10% reduction in short interest since the last reporting period.�
1/1/2015
guest I did view it FluxCap. In addition it took me about two weeks but I did read through CapOp's two threads on cell costs and pack IP. He worked hard on those two topics as you all know.
Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think CapOp no longer posts much these days because he is apprehensive of the Gigafactory. It is so capital intensive, and it will be difficult without Panasonic's cooperation. As others have explained, Panasonic has many good reasons not to do such massive joint venture. Panasonic is an old conservative large company. The company has lost a lot of money in the past ten years. Its management cares more about creating jobs and making a profit at low risk than to save the earth from global warming. As its CEO Tusuga explained, they understand what Elon wants, but they can only move one incremental step at a time (i.e. increase production rate one step at a time when needed, as they are doing to accommodate the Model S and X through 2017). Naturally Panasonic is not interested in sharing its cell IP and production know-how with anyone unless it had no other choice.
We don't see any battery experts explaining cell chemistry, cell IP dynamics, and cell manufacturing here on TMC (which is kind of strange actually given how hot this stock has been and that Tesla wants to build a battery factory). From the outside, we have no idea how difficult it will be for Elon to create the Gigafactory without Panasonic/Samsung/LG/Chinese. For sure, just like all of you here, I want Tesla to succeed.�
1/1/2015
guest You are making an assumption that Panasonic is not already on board. That is not necessarily true. They are not yet ready to disclose anything yet, so the public answer is essentially... we're thinking about it. What else are they supposed to say? They aren't ready to announce it.
I find it much harder to believe that Tesla announced this giga factory and has not already lined up the partners, or a least almost all the way sorted through it.
All the rest of this is just idle speculation from interested parties but with no information at all.
Also, this document was posted by a Seeking Alpha commentator which I thought was quite interesting: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r12021.pdf
It's a peer review of the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) Draft Report �Modeling the Cost and Performance of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric-Drive Vehicles" and most interesting thing I found about it is that one of the peer reviewers is from Tesla Motors. A Mr. Kurt Kelty, whose bio is also included. Here is an interesting excerpt:
So the battery person at Tesla Motors used to work at Panasonic for quite some time, including leading their battery research lab in Silicon Valley among other relevant activities. The implications are very interesting.�
1/1/2015
guest Because he worked in japan for a long time, I'm betting he has numerous contact still at the Panasonic battery division, tesla has been known to hire the best, make the leap from A to B, if Panasonic as a company doesn't want to sign on, I bet there are numerous engineers that would jump at the chance to be part of history, making the worlds largest battery factory. Elon will get it done, one way or another�
1/1/2015
guest Your posts are eerily similar to a guy on here a while back, TFTF..."tales from the future" I think he calls himself on Seeking Alpha, do you know of him?
goodluck on your skeptical speculation, it is a healthy viewpoint to include here on the forums so that we see the different types of doubt people still have in Tesla's future success.�
1/1/2015
guest Hummingbird, it was indeed a long video, but there was a point I remember where CapOp stepped back and said roughly, don't get me wrong, I'm extremely bullish on Tesla. The way I heard it, he felt like the announcement wasn't really that meaningful because they didn't yet announce their partners, but I think it would be mistaken to see this (or his less frequent posting for that matter) as some kind of "downgrade" of TSLA from CapOp.�
1/1/2015
guest JRP3 has done some extensive posts on different battery technologies, you just have to visit the battery sections of the forums to see the lengthy discussions.
IMO Elon wants to build the gigafactory because he's frustrated with battery manufacturers holding things back.
I'm not sure why the battery manufactures don't see the demand that is staring them in the face. It's not just from EV's. The solar industry has been longing for great batteries for decades, not to mention every commercial and industrial customer that is getting exorbitant fees for demand charges every day.�
1/1/2015
guest If there is indeed this much demand, I don't see how batteries can be a commodity. The price of batteries would rocket up if they were holding back production of cars. I think that sort of logic suggests that a battery factory that IS the world's supply of batteries would have a good profit margin if electric cars take off.
I suppose they are commodities because you can't price-differentiate the batteries, all batteries are the same, but if there's a serious shortage, then the profit margin on the batteries will be sufficient.�
1/1/2015
guest A few responses to some of the things said in this thread:
1. I have a Nissan Leaf and it is a good car. I got the base model, because it has all you need and there is no value in getting the mid or upper model. CARWINGS would be nice, but not worth an extra $50/month.
After 6 months the A/C already stopped working and I get a warning that the tire needs maintenance. Other than that I really like the car.
2. There is plenty of room for the Nissan Leaf as well as Model E, I3, etc. EV demand is growing exponentially. Even if only 1% of cars sold are EV's then that is 1 million cars.
3. High demand for batteries will not cause the price of batteries to go up. It is the exact opposite right now. Namely, batteries are too expensive and there is not enough demand for this reason. We need batteries to come down in price.
4. Tesla will double world Lithium Ion battery production with GF. Now it only needs to build 200 more GF's after the first one to be able to supply enough batteries for every car sold to be an EV.
5. The only thing holding EV's back from mass adoption will be battery supply. EV's will grow as fast as the battery supply can grow.
6. Hummingbird does sound like tftf.
7. Solar really needs cheap battery storage to take it to the next level.
8. Tesla's margins will not contract, because of what I wrote in points 4. and 5.
9. I do not invest in stocks with the sole purpose of maximizing my return. I vote with my wallet and invest in companies that I believe in and ones that are honest with their shareholders and the public. I invest in solar companies, but if I don't like the company for one reason or another then I will not invest in it even if I knew that it could potentially yield huge returns. E.g. after the hack job that TSL did issuing their PR about their new Honey Ultra modules, I will probably not invest in that company again; they purposely mislead investors with that PR making it sound like their vaporware modules are going to be "world record efficient" when in reality they will be just meh (if ever produced). And TSL is significantly undervalued right now.
10. Group think is dangerous, but listening to naysayers when they are wrong can be even more dangerous.
Good luck to everyone and happy investing.�
1/1/2015
guest Almost nothing you have said here is correct.
First, there is reason to believe that other car manufacturers will buy batteries from Tesla, because two of them already do buy batteries from Tesla. That seems like reason enough for me.
Second, owning an EV and the whole world using EVs definitely makes the world a greener place, even without doing anything whatsoever to the electrical grid. Check this link to see that no matter where you are in the US, an EV is cleaner than a gasoline car: Global Warming Emissions and Fuel-Cost Savings of Electric Cars (2012) | Union of Concerned Scientists - you can see the same thing on Tesla's Go Electric page, broken down by state, using US EIA data. Also, EVs get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner, which is not the case with gas cars. *And* you can install solar onto your house and immediately make your EV 100% emissions-free, which is something 30% of EV owners in CA have done (according to a recent survey of EV owners in CA), so don't think that this is some sort of niche application. All cars have bodies so to say that an EV takes more to build or recycle is silly - it takes a slight bit more energy to build an EV and the EV uses massively less over its lifetime, because cars use a vast majority of their energy during operation, not production (there are many studies and common sense showing this, but I can produce one if you're that skeptical...you shouldn't be, though, it seems pretty obvious). Recycling, also, is not a huge issue, as lithium ion batteries are non-toxic and can even be landfilled, not that they would be, because they'll be reused in low-draw applications like grid storage which offer additional efficiency gains after they are out of the car, and then if it becomes economically viable to recycle batteries they will be recycled (it currently isn't, not because it's expensive to recycle them, but because it's so cheap and easy to get lithium). Regardless of this, some firms already have ~90% recycling efficiency for li-ion batteries.
Really, I have no idea how you can be so woefully misinformed about this point if you spend any amount of time on this forum. It is unequivocally true that EVs are better for the environment than gasoline vehicles according to anyone who has given the least bit thought to the issue.
Finally, the name of the game, explicitly, from the top of Tesla, is to accelerate electric vehicle adoption. That's the name of my game as well. If I make money on the way (as I and everyone here has already done), fine. If I don't and all I get is a longer life and get to breathe clean air and leave a better world for all of our children, then I guess that's just a terrible thing isn't it?
Speaking of bear fuel, every environmental concern you've brought up is explicitly bear fuel, and is completely false. So please do not accuse others of spreading bear fuel when that is exactly what you are doing.�
1/1/2015
guest It seems that in the mind of animals like dinosaurs and bears there is a contradiction between benefiting the environment and making money when all evidence from reality shows that the two go hand-in-hand which is logical since our future depens on it and usually whatever is good for the future is where the money is.�
1/1/2015
guest
Sleepy, I think OVMS might be available for the Leaf? If so, then you can get a carwings-equivalent (sort of? not sure what all carwings does) for 100 down (equipment) and like 5 bucks a month (sim card).
In fact, EV demand is growing faster than hybrid demand did over the same time period according to an autoblog article from a while back.
Plug-ins surpass hybrids early-market growth rate in the US
Honestly as far as I'm concerned this is the only way to invest. I could put all my money in some oil stock and collect a dividend and my 1% growth a year or whatever and be fine, but I would feel dirty about it and I wouldn't be doing the right thing and I wouldn't be making any significant amount of money anyway.
And you know what? Investing like this has done very well for me. Because this mentality goes hand in hand with "invest in what you know." If you know a lot about something, then you'll know whether it's good or bad, and if you're very interested in a technology or sector and think it's going to do good things for the world, then you'll research it and know a lot about it. And *that* is the best way to make money. The one caveat is of course if you drink the kool-aid a little too much, but knowledge about the sector can mitigate that. And taking a bigger view of your investment's place in the world and how it affects the world long term can also lead to a less narrow minded view which again gives you the edge over those who don't think broadly enough.�
1/1/2015
guest This really feels similar to the way that TSLA acted after Q3/fires - where the stock just waffles for weeks, unreactive to positives that would usually propel it upward at least 5% (i.e. the GS note this morning). Very frustrating.�
1/1/2015
guest It's general market sentiment, not TM specific. Although Tesla has massively outperformed the NASDAQ for the last year, the shape of its graph is very similar to that of all other NASDAQ momentum stocks. If you want to be cynical, you could claim that Tesla's appreciation is solely due to the fact that it is now regarded as a momentum stock, while this was not the case a year ago. Tesla is an incredibly exposed stock if there is a general market downturn (the 23% drop from 265 to 205 is clear evidence of this, and hopefully just a healthy correction).
I think Tesla's appreciation is due to company-specific events and that the current stock price is more or less correct, I'm just saying that you could easily make a different argument. And there is no guarantee that the stock market will remain rational in a downturn, even if it happens to be rational right now.�
1/1/2015
guest I bought some medium term puts a few days ago. I hate having to guess at how much to hedge, but I'm glad I did. A truly disappointing last couple of weeks.�
1/1/2015
guest During the last pull back to the $120's my goals was to position myself to better take advantage of the run up to $200 than I was the first time. So I sold most of my stock and converted to LEAPS and I was definitely better positioned and my portfolio did much better. I have the same goal this time but just not sure what to do. I'm not as confident that TSLA can run up to $260 again. Or maybe it can but it just won't be as fast as the $120-$200 move.
Anyone doing anything similar? Or are most people just being cautious and protecting their profits?�
1/1/2015
guest I'm tempted, justdoit. I've been buying 2016 400-500 call spreads when they were around 10 bucks each (they're less than that now), and a couple 300-500 call spreads around 20 bucks each, selling shares to get fully out of margin debit, to book profits yet still expose myself to a large runup which I think will continue to happen over the next 2 years. Of course at this point the 500 part of those spreads is up 35% and I sort of want to buy it back.
I do want to keep holding a fair amount of stock though rather than just calls, and selling stock also means realizing large amounts of gains. I got myself completely out of margin debit around the top (250ish), which I feel great about, so I could take on a lot of margin here if I felt like it, and I already have a little bit, but I'm a tiny bit cautious. Still I think this is a similar buying opportunity to the 120-140 range (which is to say, 120 was a no brainer, this might be closer to like 130 or 140, which were both good choices but not as no-brainer-y).�
1/1/2015
guest its funny in those bleeding days, most are quiet here. What is goin on?? Will be dip below $200 tomorrow?�
1/1/2015
guest I do not see TSLA breaking away from the general direction of the other 'momos' until Elon pops up in China to deliver the first car (announce some type of good reservation numbers) or
early May Q1ER. If the market continues to correct and large fund managers flee to the relative safety of large cap companies that pay dividends I can see TSLA under 200. I have resisted buying more stock at this point. My 2015/16 LEAPS are taking on water but I will be buying more stock if we dip to 185-190 range. I have NO technical reason for picking this number just what I wrote down when we were kind of floundering in the 220 range with little positive catalyst that I could see in the near term.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm pretty sure the big fund managers on the street who created this "momo correction" will do exactly as you suggest. Sell, short and create the "correction" story, then buy back the stock of the decade at bargain prices when the dust settles. How low we go before the big buying starts is the question. I think we could see a ton of buy orders under $200, but I could be wrong.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm all out of buying power, but if we ever touch the 200-day again (Around $150 I think), I'll take out a second mortgage and throw it all into DITM Jan '16s. YOLO!�
1/1/2015
guest - Or YOLT in this case?�
1/1/2015
guest Tsunami of hurt 2.0 is coming.�
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