Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 35

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep. They are a bit slow today. The last two were up, like, seconds after the close.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL! You posted at 1:01. The conference call is supposed to start at 2:30 (AND, in the past many of the calls started up to 15 minutes late). You'll get carpal tunnel syndrome refreshing so long...

    :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    11c non-gaap eps gain, bouncing around a few percent here and there after hours.

    Shoulda sold that iron condor I had an order in for, oh well :-/
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good numbers but down over $10 AH. I love the market. :rolleyes:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lori...DaveT was waiting for financials that should be released at market close.....:wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's going on? AH trading is all over the place.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Project Tiger was the site!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did I see $12 down for a second?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bouncing around all over the place AH. Bots must be confused.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bots are funny. Looks like we're up now
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Yes you did. But now it's up over $6.

    I have no idea what's going on with AH trading, the bots can't seem to decide which way the stock should go.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "We anticipate having operational Alpha prototypes ready by next week in order to confirm design intent and Beta prototypes to be ready later this year."

    Does that mean we get to see the Model X next week?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was trying to read the letter's wording to see if it was made to be intentionally confusing for the bots. I spend way to much time on these things. Very interesting letter though. Alpha X models next week?!!?!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Report is up:

    Was the non-GAAP whisper number $0.04 EPS? If so, they blew it out

    � Tesla and Panasonic announce Gigafactory agreement

    � Site preparation started in June for a potential Gigafactory location

    � Record Q2 Model S deliveries of 7,579 vehicles

    � Record Q2 Model S production of 8,763 vehicles

    � Net income of $16M and $0.11 EPS (non-GAAP), loss of $62M and $(0.50) EPS (GAAP)

    � New Model S/Model X assembly line planned to begin operation next week

    � On track for more than 35,000 deliveries in 2014
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Tesla�s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year." wow that's 2,000 cars per week
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did I read that correctly in the shareholder letter?
    "Tesla�s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year." --> That means 2000 car/wk..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now that I see the numbers, I have to say that this is the first ER for me where EPS didn't matter. Tesla could have posted a marginal non-GAAP loss and I still would have been impressed based on (per shareholder letter):


    • Tesla and Panasonic announce Gigafactory agreement
    • Site preparation started in June for a potential Gigafactory location
    • Record Q2 Model S deliveries of 7,579 vehicles
    • Record Q2 Model S production of 8,763 vehicles
    • Net income of $16M and $0.11 EPS (non-GAAP), loss of $62M and $(0.50) EPS (GAAP)
    • New Model S/Model X assembly line planned to begin operation next week
    • On track for more than 35,000 deliveries in 2014
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    not able to download the newsletter, looks like busy server
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Remember that's annualized rate, not 2015 deliveries, so 2,000 cars per week in December 2015. Still good, though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Could someone put the PDF somewhere online here or on some other mirror server? Cannot download it from tesla's link.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Our results were not not not not not bad.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Holy crap, EPS beat, production beat, look at that Gross Margin beat...and ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND CARS NEXT YEAR. WAY TO GO, TEAM!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Impressive letter. It's also good we know about project TIGER not being an actual pizza factory. I expect share movement to be muted for quite some time due to overall market forces. Although with these results, we should unwind some of that short interest and squeeze some money out of the haters.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No, 100k annualized rate by the end of next year. That means 2k/week at the end of the next year, and 100k+ cars in 2016, not 2015
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, wow. Misread that. Still very impressive!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wasn't working for me right away, then I clicked to download the file instead of view it in the browser. That worked.

    You can option-click on it (Mac) or right click and find whatever menu item says something about downloading or saving the file (Mac or PC).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Indeed. Lets' hope that this huge guidance is mentioned during the cc and will boost TSLA closer to ATHs and beyond.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After some initial underdamped swinging around, settling into a +/- 1% range. that is a first...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest


    At this point, any larger swings will hinge on the CC.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great Q2 from TM. Reaffirmed 2014 guidance. Panasonic agreement confirmed. Broke ground in Reno.

    I think the actual earnings call and Q&A will be good.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The algos may actually have been unable to download the letter like we were for a time. Might start moving more soon.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Agreed. Also, good to see you around, JTE!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like more market irrationality.

    Last quarter Tesla dropped immediately after ER, and then recovered more than those losses. Strange behavior. Maybe the market is just trying to take money from options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest


    Thanks, it's good to be back on the forums for the moment but things have been extremely busy with me lately. So much so that I haven't really been able to keep up with TSLA much.

    But it looks like I spoke too soon about larger swings depending on the CC. Down nearly $5 as I type this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So something like >35k this year, maybe 60-70k next year and 100k in 2016
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Slowly clawing it's way back in AH...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Knocking it out of the park. Tesla Elves like a Formula 1 pit crew!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    and Model X "Anti-Selling". What do the business schools have to say about that?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He said "molecule" again, three times in a row!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This concept of cost parity with ICE vehicles is strange to me. The Model S is better than any ICE car at the same cost, therefore, it has reached and exceeded cost parity.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought they were talking about drivetrain costs, but maybe I misheard?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bringing down the cost of a battery where it is the same price or cheaper than an internal combustion engine.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I love how financial people keep confusing demand/production/deliveries, and Elon, to elucidate how high demand has been without even TRYING used the analogy that sales per square foot (i.e. they aren't building many stores yet) is TWICE that of Apple.

    Wow
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    and Apple sales people/sqft >>> Tesla Sales people/sqft
    apple stores confuse me, what are they for? and why are there so many sales people?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The model s in production today is several hundred pounds lighter than the earlier ones (i.e. the one I have)...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NOOOOOO! Andrea James, why did you hang up?!?!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I literally typed that to Techmaven just now. NOOOOOOOOooooo....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was a great call. I know the numbers matter, but I just LOLed half a dozen times as Elon was answering. Deepak occasionally threw something in to make all the quants feel good. It felt like they were asking a guy with a PhD in Mathematics to recite the multiplication tables, and he was just holding it back thinking, "I know a lot more than you think."

    All in.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My favorite part(s) were when they indicated that they were not showing all their cards :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    (Reminder for DaveT's hangout tonight, should be a good one)

    Google+ hangout for TSLA Q2 2014 ER

    I'll be hosting a Google+ hangout tomorrow night at 6:00pm Pacific Time (9:00pm Eastern) to discuss Tesla's 2014 Q2 earnings announcement and conference call (to be reported after market close tomorrow).

    What: Discussion of TSLA 2014 Q2 earnings
    Time/Date: July 31, 2014 at 6:00pm Pacific time (9:00pm Eastern Time).

    Google+ hangout specifics:
    Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.

    Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
    ?https://plus.google.com/events/cpf34...PPjqsiw8-WqkAE?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Obligatory thread creation: "What are on those secret cards?"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    By the way he was slurping on his drink, implying "we got this", I'd say some aces. Question is how many.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did that Chinese customer really punch his car?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Broke his own windshield with some sort of blunt object, yes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I liked the call, lot of great tidbits and great geeky conversation.
    And I have to admit: What a ride;)
    All the best!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I haven't listened to the call yet, but I'm very pleased with the information in the Shareholder Letter. Confirmation of the Gigafactory groundbreaking at Reno, Model X Alpha next week, and continued ramp-up of vehicle production are all great updates. As I expected, the share price isn't making any radical moves at this point in After Hours, but I'm all about the long game, and Tesla is on a good path IMO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EM "Demand is not generally strong in Europe"

    When asked about demand in different geographical regions EM kind of mumbles the above quote at 34 minutes into the CC, the question is asked around the 32 minute mark, anyone concerned? Do I have it wrong?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Umm, no. How many times must he say that demand is not a problem, before people can comprehend that demand is not a problem?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was a bit concerned by that, but I interpreted is as meaning 'not generally as strong' as in the US and China, rather than not strong in absolute terms. After all, the shareholder letter mentioned rapidly increasing demand in Europe.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    She was actually the first person to ask a question. Usually they only let one question per person, so that is probably why she wasn't there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I didn't say it was a problem, I am not short the stock or a blogger on Seeking Alpha...just paying close attention to what EM said.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think we realize how lucky we are to have Elon and JB as our CEO and CTO. These guys are true businessmen and innovators. Not only are they able to have mindfully created an almost perfect business plan for an auto startup company, but they are also capable of taking on any mathematical question dealing with physics and chemistry of Tesla's entire operation. There isn't a single question that Elon can't tackle, this is why he's always ten steps before anyone else. CEOs of other companies are good at answering day to day operations, performance, outlook and guidance, but ask them about physics or chemistry and you'll get an answer from a representative in that field. Hence, the answers are never genuine and oftentimes, misguided. But with Elon, you get authentic sources and he gives you confidence because the authority in his answer exerts nothing less than confidence. Then to have another genius (JB) back him up regarding the hydrogen vs electric paradigm (as one such example), gave me goosebumps.

    The 100,000 number Elon derived wasn't taken out of thin air or a gut feeling, he derived that number from calculating real demand vs. production and expansion capabilities. 2015-2016, watch out! We are talking about 300% growth!! I am excited to see what else this company has up their sleeves, I don't see them dropping the ball on battery or chemistry innovation, they will only get better as long as Elon and JB are captain and co-captain.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You asked if anyone was concerned. Why would anyone be concerned about demand in any single market, when Tesla has been saying forever that demand is not a problem? It seems it would be looking for trouble where none has ever existed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Great conference call, except that I now feel like my Model S is fat and overweight. If not for the sour market, I think we would have seen a nice bump, but it was interesting to watch that after hours see-saw - definitely better than what happened 3 months ago. I am expecting some bullish research notes next week and hopefully the market sentiment reverses quickly. I'm as confident in TSLA as ever after hearing that call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did Elon say exactly how much weight Tesla managed to trim from the Model S? From what components did the weight reduction come from?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He said around 2% with small amounts from a significant number of components rather than most from just a few components.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This afternoon I asked Andrea James what her question was going to be and she said 1) ZEV credits and 2) customer deposits on balance sheet. She says she had another call come in from the CFO of another company so that's why she couldn't take the question (she also didn't think the Tesla call was gonna run as long as it did).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cool, thanks! 4,647 lbs. has been the listed weight on the Model S specifications page, so 2% is around 93 lbs. My guess was that it was optimization of many components, because doing something dramatic like altering the structure of the car would have had consequences for safety testing and ratings (having to re-test and re-qualify).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He said a few hundred pounds... So way more than 93. I would say it is safe to say more than 200 and less than 400.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The easiest way to shed weight would be to install fewer, higher voltage batteries. I don't know how else you would get there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Remember that cars that don't order the rear kid seats do not have as reinforced rear structures as the cars that do, so perhaps that may be part of the weight savings. Also the rear kid seats have been redesigned and maybe those seats are also lighter than the ones in the earlier cars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since this thread was created for cheer leading. GO TESLA GO! I can not believe how strong this way. I am now hoping that Tesla falls to the 200 day tomorrow :) At that point I will seriously consider selling all my stock and buying some leaps. I had some doubt on all of the drive train replacements and other quality issues and among other things the fact that they are getting to a 0 maintenance car pretty quick is crazy.

    I had to work very late and just finished the conference call but wowzers. I did not think I would hear another call I liked as much as when Elon said they would be profitable and the market did not believe him.

    Sorry for anyone holding lottery tickets but FALL TSLA !!! ... or soar through the moon would also work. If you are short ... Exit now ... your time is running out
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The first two articles on my Google Finance news feed:

    "Tesla Motors' Loss Widens on Higher Spending" - Wall Street Journal
    "Tesla Motors Smashings Earnings Estimate" - ValueWalk

    I think we're in for a lot of zig-zagging today. Everyone have their knife-catching gloves on?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

    sorry, only way to describe the movement the last 4 minutes. I think this is enough to squeeze out some shorts too
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon�s best lines from last night�s conference call:

    �Yeah. In the past [indiscernible] we've shown all of our cards, so people have kind of gotten used to us showing all of our cards. We're not currently showing all our cards.�

    �Yeah. I mean another thing, our CapEx and R&D numbers are better than they appear because there are things you don't know about.�

    �We can drive demand up at will. But if drive it up too much, then people would get upset with us because they waited too long for their car. And the only guy in China gets upset that when he got his car, he bashed it, which seems [indiscernible] but he said the reason for bashing the car was that we took too long to deliver to him. I'm like, okay. But -- and when I was visiting in China, the only unhappiness I saw was that, because customers were upset about waiting too long for their car. So it's like, boy, we better not stoke demand in that situation.�
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest


    Cory Johnson and Nathan Weiss are committed Tesla shorts. What do you expect when they discuss Tesla? They have a history of lying and distorting facts about Tesla. The fact that Bloomberg uses them to discuss Tesla tells you about Bloomberg's biases. When I say shorts, I mean they have had a long history of anti-Tesla bias, recommending to investors to short sell Tesla.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I clicked the second link just to see what sort of drivel this was and it started buffering about 30 seconds, and I didn't feel the need to wait. Wow. truly awful stuff.

    Total O/T - I had a dream last night that Elon had joined TMC under the username "ElonRMusk" and just started answering all of our questions, prompting some of us to ask if he didn't have better things to be doing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't know, more skill maybe? They're so blatantly wrong that the only people they can possibly fool are themselves and others like them. I mean, they should at least try to be persuasive. Dialling down their sarcasm would be a good first step.

    For me, at least, seeing this stuff on TV triggers a visceral reaction that I just don't experience when I read Santos' and Petersen's posts.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If you use AdBlock or Ghostery, you may see what looks like buffering, but isn't. I use a different, extension-less browser just to see videos like this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In fairness, you can also find occasionally good coverage on Bloomberg, mostly from Betty Liu. She tends to have better informed guests, and she lets them speak.

    This is a good interview with Colin Risch from Northland Capital Markets.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Proud of myself. I managed some actual market timing properly for once:

    Date SecurityQtyPrice
    8/1/2014Sell to CloseTSLA 08/01/2014 200.00 C10$33.00
    7/31/2014Buy to OpenTSLA 08/01/2014 200.00 C10$26.00
    7/30/2014Sell to CloseTSLA 08/01/2014 200.00 C10$29.50
    7/14/2014Buy to OpenTSLA 08/01/2014 200.00 C10$27.83
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is how Tesla succeeds where others don't. They tackle the hard ways when the easy ways don't give useful results.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone have confirmation that the production line was (is) up and running as of Monday, August 4th? I noted on the Australian thread that one member just received notification of production commencing on his
    Signature S....so just curious that TM met their mark with the new line start date.

    Thanks
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i have a tour today, I believe it did
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice....can you fake pulling a hammy at the end of the production line and camp out and count throughput for the rest of the day. Hmmm....Hammy may not do it, you may have to slip and fall (but don't make them shut down the line - it's going to be close for year-end).

    Have a great time - jealous.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1: Go chicken!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, not sure how much you can say or not after your tour and NDA, but perhaps you could just tell us your 'mood' afterwards with 5 being as expected and 1 being awful and 10 being better than you could have imagined.
    or anything at all
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 this please chicken
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ... or chicken could just tell us how he is planning to trade TSLA in the coming months (which of course could have something or nothing to do with what he observed or didn't observe during his tour). This is the trading thread after all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think I recall that you have been on the tour and signed the NDA. I don't want to get Chicken in trouble but can he share 'impressions'?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    have we heard from either of the AJ's as to their rating of TSLA following the quarterly results? I remember that their reports usually come out about 3-5 days after the quarterly call, right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd like to know a hint too, LOL!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it was pretty strict language if i remember in the 90 day NDA...however, I think I still felt I could tell people if my general expectations were met or exceeded from the tour but without saying anything specific that I saw or heard there. To be honest there wasn't anything too special that I remember that people didn't already know at the time on these boards...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. OK Chickenevil, any Impressions?:biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Im telling you, Chicken is still there, at the end of the assembly line, faking an injury and counting cars. He could be there all night.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it was Chickenlittle who had the tour, although I must admit when they start posting back and forth, I get confused.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are correct! And I just pm'd 'evil' asking how it went :eek:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He spotted a throughput chokepoint, rolled up his sleeves and said we can speed this s**t up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Strong uptick out of the chute this morning. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice treat today. Cashed out some Aug22 $245's for a cool 100% gain. Now, onwards to DaveT's $290 3-month PT :) for my LEAPS!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All I can say is I hate days like this. It is really really really hard for
    Me to focus on the work I should be doing.

    We hit 249.98 and it looks to have triggered some limits, however it's charging back up. This is amazing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Expect to see john lovello (Merrill lynch) to raise his target to 70 probably Friday I would bet
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is this some very secretive indicator of your tour yesterday?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I feel like this thread becoming a lot less about "social chat" and more of the same stuff in the short term thread. Am I the only one who feels this way? Wonder if there is something we can do about this?

    I feel like I'm possibly missing important stuff b/c it's getting posted only in the social thread which I don't always check as much as the short term thread.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There was never really any point to this thread to begin with. People were complaining that there was too much talk about what trades people were making in the short-term thread, or celebratory posts when the stock moved a lot or something, so they spun off this thread and I'm pretty sure nobody knows what it's for. I think it's a waste of time personally and the threads should never have been split to begin with. But I just follow both of them now and respond to things wherever they come up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As a general matter, the substantive posts should be elsewhere and this thread should be the "water cooler" chat.

    I moved the posts re Morgan Stanley's new report to Analyst Reports/Targets
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hah! The price target is such a joke, I'm embarrassed for them.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The next time TSLA hits $70 will be after the 1:10 split next year....
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I find John Lovallo's targets to be right on. That's because I interpret them as the price of ATM Jan15 LEAPS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree, this should be more like a general TSLA Social Chat and not necessarily specifically focused on short term movement because that's what the short term thread is for.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What happens to options if that happens? (serious question) :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I own options on a stock, and it's just announced a split. What happens to my options?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I was wrong on these other 2 things (post from 4-30) but maybe I'll get one of them. I have 3 weeks...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had a private tour of the factory months and months ago, including the 2nd floor, and of course it was amazingly cool. BUT... the thing that shocked me was the very strong odor (probably VOCs?, volatile organic compounds) on the 2nd floor. Even in the huge cafeteria area upstairs. In fact it was so strong in that area I had to wonder how could anybody work here, let alone eat here, with this strong smell? Imagine melting plastic mixed with the smoke of solder iron mixed with general electrical/ozone smells, along with maybe some nasty epoxy or something, all rolled up into one. I hope this doesn't come back to haunt Tesla some day.
    �
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