Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 16

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can you share which weeklies?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Be careful -- do with your own trades what you think best given your situation.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was buying this week's $280's.

    I was hoping for a big run today, and it probably would have happened if TSLA already did not have a few big days this week.

    I was hoping that the market would realize that this is the day that has morphed TSLA into more than an auto manufacturer.

    Looks like we will not be getting the spike I was hoping for.

    That is ok, because my other longer term TSLA options are doing really well.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe people are still digesting everything? I think the spike could happen at any time. Today, tomorrow, next week...At some point people have to wake up. Then again maybe not.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The market already has realized it. This was the entire thesis of the Adam Jonas note, and TSLA already ran up 30% on it this week.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The enormity of this transition for Tesla as a company to a new stage of its rise to dominance as a premier US manufacturer of transportation and energy solutions, and the path to 500,000 vehicles per year and the massive revenue / profit / share price ($1,500+) that entails, is actually a very complex thing for most investors to understand. Just because we have been living with the company's movements for months/years on this forum, does not mean the market, or even most professional analysts, fully comprehend this transition yet.

    But they will, and soon. Buying in before that happens and timing it right is the trick.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll admit I'm a little shocked by the price action so far this morning. IMO it's the biggest thing Tesla has announced ever, and yet we are in the red. Hmm.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shorts are spending HUGE amounts of money to push things down. We shall see how this unfolds.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems to be following there rest of the market pretty closely.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Took advantage of the dip to get rid of some of my put options I bought in the upper 250's and 260's as a hedge against negative factors in the giga-factory announcement. Also got rid of a covered call during that drop to 249.

    I think we hang out at 250's for a little bit as people consolidate and, in some cases, lick their wounds.

    Seems to be some rotation back into AAPL.

    I'm found out I'm pretty bad at day trading... the euphoria of my short term call positions going up to 6-8X made me sell too quickly in the past couple of days. Plus the hangover of other fleeting moments, so I left a lot of money on the table. Still, glad to have to gotten the gains I did. Thanks to DaveT and sleepyhead!!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, damn, once again being in commute from 6:30-7:15am PST really wrecks my ability to take advantage of the huge morning swings. All the weeklies I bought yesterday went from being big gains to big losses while I was driving.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe you can pay someone to drive you so you can trade while going to work, and the chauffeur takes the train back. And on low volume mornings you have a nice 45 min nap in the car ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is true, but the details of the deal were a lot better than anyone imagined.

    Minimal dilution and smallish $4b-$5b price tag vs. analyst predictions of $5b - $10b.

    Falling at the low end on cost was definitely a shock. This also means that they will be able to build 10 gigafactories for $40b-$50b instead of $100b, which is a huge deal.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think that Wall St. is completely out of whack on this one.

    It must be the shorts piling in huge money to try to knock TSLA down. I don't see it lasting too long.

    Everything about the deal announced yesterday was almost too good to be true. This is a not a time to be "selling the news".
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's not forget that the GF announcement isn't really finished yet. Musk and his cousin from Solarcity are scheduled to have a press conference today. And if we know Musk, he will surely go into more depth and throw us a bone or two regarding the GF and I think that's when we might see the stock react, hopefully.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    There's a press conference today? links?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    CPUC Thought Leaders Series

    Panel discussion on Innovation + impact of regulation, including 45-minute audience Q&A

    Elon Musk + Lyndon Rive

    1:30 PM PST on Feb 27

    Live Webcast
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Heh, yea, not playing with enough cash to make that viable. It's a lot to me, but not that much :)

    I cashed out all the weeklies after the jump from the MS upgrade, then rolled all the profit back into new weeklies expecting the gigafactory to at least hold things up nearer $260 where we were at. As long as things get back to $260 by end of Friday I'll hold onto the MS upgrade profits, which we were at at after hours yesterday, before hours this morning, and for a bit at the open today...really surprised at the $10 drop since. Dow is up, Nasdaq is up. It's not like TSLA is fighting a headwind. *shrug* the mysteries of the market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I dare to guess that it's gonna be action in AH today, when Musk gives the press conference. Let's hope it opens up nicely tomorrow. Musk has got to have more goodies stored for us regarding the GF.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't jump all over me guys, but I'm net-short TSLA right now. What happened is just that I took my calls off the table this morning at about $260 and was left with only my hedges. I don't really intend to stay short, just looking for the right place to get long again.

    Yes, I am terrified being on the wrong side of TSLA right now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooo (just kidding).

    I'm not short, but I certainly took profits on Adam Jonas' report, because I set myself up perfectly for that trade and had to enjoy some of the gains. One of the smartest bets of my investing career. The open calls I have are play money now, as they are minor in relation to the profits I took over the last couple days.

    I don't have the stomach or heart to openly short TSLA, personally. And naturally, I hope your short positions fail miserably :).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you still have mid term and leaps? your play money comment makes me think you don't. I haven't touched my march options or anything further out.

    I am wondering if it's almost better since the iv is so high right now to close some of them and wait for it to drop a little then reestablish them after the iv drops. Is there a chance they would be cheaper even if the stock price goes up a little?

    Some of them I'm going to roll up tomorrow because they are so deep. I think tomorrow will open with a gap up. *fingers crossed*
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh I still have LEAPS and core shares untouched, but I cashed out some deep ITM Leaps and March ITM calls. Kept OTM Leaps and bought short term OTM calls.

    So yes, I did exit most of my mid-term positions, but that was mostly because the wife said "give me some of that cash!"

    I may lose on the weeklies (early March) but I still think we have room to rebound and shoot up on Elon's comments. He's due to start speaking soon I think.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ditto. There's only so much a delta of 1 can do with X number of contracts. I'd rather have 2X number contracts and lower delta for LEAPS.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you play your cards right, you can roll up and increase your net delta (with more contracts), while still taking some cash for avg in on pull backs. I'm in process of doing the same - rolling all J15 $250s to a mix of $300 and out to join my existing J16 (undecided on that strike but >$300)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks; I decided to close out my March Deep ITM calls and my Deep ITM LEAPS. Now I wait.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh my, please don't use my wife's profit-taking mandates as the basis for your trading decisions! Hope it works out for you though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Put in an order to buy back the LEAPs at cheaper than I sold them, which executed this morning, and sure enough they're now down even though the stock is currently up from when I bought them. Sniped a few hundred bucks, probably could have made a bit more on it.

    Now I'm considering making a really wide spread. '16 400/500 bull call spread only costs about 10 bucks.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nothing to do with you or your wife :). Pigs get slaughtered, remember? :) Just needed a friendly reminder to take profits, and not get greedy!

    EDIT:
    P.S. I am left with only 5 shares. naturally, looking for an opportunity to get back in - but who knows, i may not get that. we'll see
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Funny...My wife said. Well you have done well, but it is all 'paper profit'.....So I made her happy and sold 2 Deep ITM calls. Holding the rest.....trying...not....to ....let...her....help!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    hilarious-
    Course even the new found 'cash' is really only 'paper profit' until you spend it on something :)
    Funny how cash will never be 'paper' again
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Zaxxon 0, Market 1.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    mershaw2001: 0, short sellers: 1 .
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, but in the last month you are Mershaw 15, shorts 1 I will bet....
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Mershaw 15, shorts 1"
    That is a good point. I increased exposure to tesla today and feel like an idiot. I guess I'm starting to get that scared feeling again. Did you guys see Doug Kass's comment "imbalance sell at close"? He's indicating it will gap down tomorrow. now, honestly watching him struggle to find anything to send this stock down has been interesting, but this is finally getting to me.
    i need a hug and a julian cox/curt renz/luvb post. Or maybe for the new people sleepyhead/davet/fluxcap long post. And I'm sure there's a few more of you out there that have been kind enough to share your thoughts in long posts that I just missed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Why don't we have good electric motorcycles??
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thought the best place for my take on E.M. at the Conference today: Some of this is already known>

    1. Carbon tax needed to force competition and adoption of alternative energy sources.

    2. Autonomous cars: Reaffirmed that it is more like autopilot for a plane: It will free up many of the tasks that a driver/pilot would have and make the vehicle safer.

    3. Gigafactory will produce standing storage batteries as well as batteries for the cars

    4. Model E: Savings versus Model S: 20% comes from the fact the car will be 20% smaller than the car and 30% from reduction in cost of battery pack; So 50% less than base
    model S ($70K is the S; 35K is the base E)

    5. BAttery format: They will continue to use the 18650 format: best $/KW

    6. Battery swap: Delayed while working on other 'issues': Pilot program S.F to L.A. will come in 'next few months'; if practical/successful then will expand.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He's a desperate short pulling out any idea he can to scare longs. I've been reading posts like his for a year on the yahoo message boards. There's plenty of people who know a lot of technical jargon, and can mis-use it to create something to scare longs.

    Just the fact that he thinks the Cadillac ELR is competition means his opinion is not of high worth. You're better off not reading his scare mongering. I've stopped reading that type of stuff, and scaring myself everyday.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I haven't looked closely because my motorcycle days are over, but some people at my work raved about Zero, and there are at least a couple of other brands. Unless, of course, you like Hardly-Drivables, I mean Highly-Dangerouses, err, Hearing-Destroyers, no... Harley-Davidson, that's it... no electric will ever make enough noise.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't feel too smart myself. Or maybe I feel like I'm too smart? It's not our fault that we see yesterday's announcement as big as it is and the market didn't. The fact that the week has already been big coupled with our friends at GS and BOA being silly outweighed what seems to us like obvious great news.

    This is why options are dangerous. We are betting on what THE MARKET thinks the company should be worth by a certain time, not what the company actually is worth or should be worth. Makes me want to sell all medium/short term options and load up on leaps!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems like motorcycles might be the perfect place for a battery. I don't think that i'd be planning on going over 100 miles in a trip in one direction, and the weird is less so it would get some decent range off one charge.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's difficult to time the market's digestion of the forward-looking analysis we talk about here. Timing it to coincide with our short and medium-term options plays is even harder. Sometimes you swing for the fences and miss (like I did in Q3), sometimes you hit a grand slam (like I did before the MS upgrade).

    But the pace of Tesla's captivation of "everyday" investors and consumers continues unabated, and the analysts of the world have not been able to stop that train yet. Perhaps take heart in the hunch that your long-term holdings have an extremely high likelihood of increasing in value, and if you don't have many long-term Tesla holdings, it might be time to rebalance your portfolio from short to long-term plays, meaning LEAPS and stock.

    Hope that helps some.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You're scared because it closed down 0.18% after being under 210 a few days ago? We just withstood an infamous GS upgrade that people were terrified of a couple months ago. Profit-taking from the huge jump plus a lot of new shorts (e.g., Realist) and it pretty much held it's ground.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I must say I am still amazed the giga-factory news ended up being a total wash today. Of all days I could have sworn we would see it up at least 10%. Just goes to show you never know what to expect with the market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, bummed it didn't hold remotely near the opening price. I need things to get back to about $260 tomorrow to break even. Certainly possible, but after today's lackluster reception for the gigafactory, it doesn't look likely without a big analyst upgrade and I think all the big ones have already reported(?).

    Sounds like I wasn't alone though and that several of us have weeklies that aren't likely to hit.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Aw, man: ckessel had weekies, too? If only I'd known!

    ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's scary is I've done some trades this last couple weeks and then had folks like sleepyhead post very similar thoughts. Either I'm getting better or you're all getting worse :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    From this thread: Delphi Model S

    Path to Autonomy - YouTube

    Showing Delphi autopilot tech on a Model S. Not 100% sure TM is involved, but supports the assertion that they are far ahead of the other car companies.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So that's why my trades haven't worked out this week :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    First of all those reductions are for the battery pack, not the car as a whole, and second of all they are multiplicative, not additive. If you reduce the cost of something by 50% and then 50% again, it's not free, it's 1/4 of it's original price. In this case, the battery will be reduced by 44%, not 50%, if those percentages hold. I happen to think we'll see more than 30% cost reduction from the battery factory, because battery prices are going down and tech is increasing anyway, plus Tesla will gain additional benefit from economies of scale. But 30% is a good rough number. Also those are reductions just for the cells, not for other parts of the pack, which may or may not decrease similarly. So you can't just say "30 + 20 = 50" to explain that the car will cost half as much.

    The goal will of course be to make the car cost half as much, and I'm sure they can make that goal. But that is not the math behind it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    When you said you had sold puts before earnings, it almost made me reconsider my bull put spread. But I didn't, and that worked, so high five?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a funny feeling I'm going to be a maroon tomorrow. Oh well, at least I have some good company.

    Seriously though, after this week I can't complain. Just one of my 205 weekly calls pays for my marooness.

    Nothing like sitting on a beach in the Caribbean asking my wife if she's ok with me buying an international data plan for $30 so I can make us tens of thousands while sipping rum runners hoping we don't get sun burned too bad. :D
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Enjoy- be there myself in a week;
    (hint: if you buy her the rum-runner(s) first, all subsequent requests are moot)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now that you've decide to roll to 2016 how do you decide it's a good time to perform the roll? Thanks in advance, I consider you the "LEAPS expert" ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man you guys make me feel poor lol
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After trying a few different ways, I've found the best time for roll-OUT is at local highs (after a big run-up that will at best cool and at worst move down before the next climb);
    The reason for this is a bit multi-fold as follows, but it's based on the assumption you want to keep your long term bull at your selected Delta tracking range (keep in mind this is a stock-replacement long hold scenario):
    I maintain a net delta stock tracking of 2000-2500 shares (with short excursions from this range). The LEAPS are generally OTM by a measure that predicts where the stock will be 3-6 months before expiration (I never carry LEAPS to expiration in this scenario)
    1) After a run up if you anticipate TSLA will flatten or pull back, roll out (time) and up(strike) to stay within your tracking range. Since the stock has climbed into your strike early (hence the roll-out), your current Delta tracking will be at the top of your range. Moving contracts out and up will concurrently lower your Delta but stay within your range, and will also provide a precipitation of cash to boot.
    2) You may not want to roll all of them, its a process. Evaluate the length of time remaining versus the next up cycle of events to capture some of that leverage. For example J15 will still capture very key up events between now and October (Mod X, GF design, and GENIII anticipation of Jan15 reveal). However, those J16s will also be more expensive by then, so a phased approach works best
    3) The move in (1) has accomplished 4 things in a single move.
    a) Maintains your bull stock(Delta track) in case the pullback never materializes
    b) lowers your risk (given the expected pullback the right time to do that) because drop in TSLA will translate in a lower Delta track slowing the rate of loss
    c) Your new J16 position won't lose as much in time value (relative to the J15s) while you wait for the next cycle and
    and 4) It provides a cash position to use if the pull back is sufficient to warrant more purchase (or if not can simply move to the side or by a ModX)

    If the stock has moved into my strike soon enough (as in this case), I will couple this with both a roll-OUT and a roll-UP. I'm currently doing both (J15 $250s are joining existing J15 $300 as well as to J16 $350 and higher). The roll UP does similar as above. I'll keep the same net Delta and generate cash for the next cycle which will occur well before Oct13 imo, again concurrently reducing exposure to the pullback (Delta tracking accelerates away from the higher strike on the pullback). At the same time, when you reach end of year, those J16 will be pricey compared to now assuming the stock has moved, so I always keep both a time and strike spread- always a balance (in this case J15 and J16). I have spreadsheet that tracks the net Delta range as well as the % in J15 vs J16- currently moving that from 60%/40% to 40%/60%

    Anyway- no doubt more than you wanted to hear by LEAPS n Bounds ;)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's just say more than I expected but exactly what I desired! Thanks so much!! I'm going to be busy with a new job this summer and won't be able to track my stocks as much so wanted to start doing a LEAPS stock replacement type strategy so am thinking about setting something like this up. Thanks again!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is anyone considering selling stock? Im not an options trader and im getting a little nervous with this high valuation, but there seems to be more good news coming too. If i sell it will only be 13% of my position.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, I am. Being up hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of a week or two, even without playing weeklies (grrr, what an idiot, I told myself I wouldn't miss out on the next obvious opportunity and then I did....). Which is why I'm feeling somewhat comfortable with selling covered calls, because I'm already considering selling a little stock. I would sell some LEAPs but they're all short-term held for me, so I would sort of want to sell stock.

    That said, I've been trying to think of ways to minimize my taxes on these, and I decided that ~50k/yr of realized long term capital gains is about optimal for tax purposes (only paying ~5-8% total if that's all of my income for the year, plus having the utility of the money and whatnot), as long as I think the stock isn't going anywhere significantly down from here. Given that we've just had an offering, I feel fairly comfortable at this price for a little bit.

    So if I *did* sell shares, I would probably sell about 200 of them. Or 300 just so I have a nice even number....but I would likely also replace them with a few LEAPs or spreads or something (the ~400/500 '16 LEAP was trading for about 10 bucks today).

    edit: kenliles, since you just wrote a big post up there, what do you think of that plan I just mentioned? Selling stock and replacing it with some optimistic, but cheap, and still highly profitable in the best case, spreads? Maybe it would be better after a bit of consolidation, but I feel like we have a better than 10% chance of hitting 500 by 2016, so...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I consider myself a very very very short-term investor/trader and I only trade in common shares so I've been in and out of TSLA many times. The last time I bought was when TSLA was at 169 one month ago and held since. I originally thought TSLA would go no higher than 220 after ER and planned my exit for it but anything on top was gravy. Well we're in the 250s, that's a lot of gravy. After doing some charting, I'm looking to hold and see if TSLA can climb up to the 270s in the coming weeks but I'm prepared to pull out at any signs of trouble.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold around half my shares at $255, but I'm still uncertain if that was the right move. The gigafactory news is bigger than I expected, long-term. Long-term, I definitely want to be in on it. Morgan Stanley are onto something. It could also be worth taking a look at Tesla's partners for the factory, if they aren't bought to crazy levels by others immediately after the announcement.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not selling a single stock for years to come. I think anyone selling now to try and time the dips is taking a big gamble. TSLA will keep going up because for every day that goes more people realize the enormous impact Tesla will have and every day new investors will want to have a piece of that cake. I honestly think Tesla will be one of the biggest, if not the biggest company in the world eventually. My money is with Musk first and foremost, wherever he goes my money will follow. I think that Musks involvement and presence is itself the greatest catalyst for Tesla and I am sure many people will reason like I do, to put their money with Musk. People are tired of greedy, power hungry CEO's who first and foremost only care about lining their pockets and/or the shareholders pockets. Musk, as everyone here knows, is selflessly working for the better of humanity and I think this is the greatest catalyst for TSLA.

    As I am writing this I come to think about something my mother said the other day. I convinced her to buy shares in Tesla a couple of years ago, and prior to this she knew nothing about stocks and/or finance or cars etc, she was totally uninterested. However, the success Tesla has had sparked a little interest and the other day she watched an interview with Elon on Youtube. The first and only thing she mentioned was how much she liked him, how honest and humble he is. She got a sense that Elon just wants to help mankind. There are countless beings who will want to pour their money on someone like Musk, for the sole reason that they trust him.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sometimes I read the Yahoo TSLA message boards for a little laugh, the level is low but at times you can find gold nuggets there. Today someone named "sahointl" posted this which I found very interesting. We know most of it on TMC but if his post is genuine then it's nice to hear about his encounter with a Tesla employee. Point number 7 is very interesting and maybe we'll only hear more about it when Elon writes his memoirs :)

    "My visit to California - not insder information but good sound bites...
    I cannot say who I met or where and what department I was at - but I was at Tesla. Here are a couple of things I learned: 1. Demand is all about allocation now and China is starting to suck it up so all model S buyers need to get their orders in now or completely face delays of 2-3 or more months. 2. The hwy fire fears were complete freak accidents - one was when the car hit a trailer hitch on the highway and the trailer hitch split through one inch of armor to hit the battery - the fire was minor and the one in Toronto is complete hype - so far nothing to do with the car. 3. The gigafactory will produce a battery that will GIVE ENERGY back to the home eventually!! The assembly is like nothing I have ever seen - not very many parts at all - this is not like a traditional auto manufacturer. 4. The company employees say that this is the best company that they have ever worked for and that the company is very fair but not giving out a lot of employee stock - shareholders come first. 5. Their supply to the auto industry is ramping up. 6. The supercharger plans will blow your mind in 2014-2015. 7. Energy and auto companies are playing a lot more dirty tricks on tesla than what we know main stream and this keeps the govt relations people busy but Tesla is prevailing. 8. The company offers its own financing plan that will guarantee the buy back of the car, but it is 3.5 apr + 10% down. They can go out 72 months. 9. When I drove the car, my caretaker told me to gun it - it went so fast that I about hit the car in front of me. I was shocked. My BMW Is a piece of trash compared to the Model S."
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm with you on this part (slightly less so on the messianic Elon worship), but If I were to sell stock, it would be to clear some margin debit and realize some gains, not to try to time dips. I agree with you about timing dips being hard. If I sell some (a small amount, as mentioned above) and then get to take advantage of a dip later, great, but that isn't the main reason. The main reason is I'm up hundreds of thousands of dollars, much more than I ever dreamed might happen right now, and might as well make a small amount real.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My thoughts exactly. No shame in getting rich by selling some of your shares early.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes I understand your situation and I might have sold a small part myself and diversify into real estate etc if I had many shares. Too often I read about people selling at 90, 120, 160 etc and hoping to buy in cheaper only to see the train leaving the station, it's such a frustrating situation.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Awesome quote.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, rats. I was hoping TSLA would bounce back towards yesterday's open. Looks like I can kiss my weeks gains goodbye. Stupid to roll the gains into new weeklies for the gigafactory announcement I guess. Went from one of my best weeks ever to a zero gain. The day's still young I suppose.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not stupid ckessel, just taking an educated chance that didn't pay off this time. A lot of us did the same, me included. Though I admit I didn't buy today's weeklies, but next week's. Your time will come, friend!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This. Sure wish I had decided to try a larger amount on weeklies one day earlier. ?Lesson learned.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The thing is that when it comes to options, you know what the difference is between buying the right option with wrong timing vs. buying the completely wrong option? Answer: no difference. That's what makes it tricky.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed. Thankfully I know that I'm inexperienced, and therefore any options plays by me are very small-stakes.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am deleveraged down to my shares and '16 leaps. buying dips. I think we will rest a bit after the recent runup, or it will pause and resume going up and I miss out on a little.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    One of the greatest revelation in options for me is that there are option structures where you have absolutely no chance of earning any money at whatever level which defies logic. It means that if you take the opposite play, you are 100% sure of making money right? Not the case.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Like a monetary black hole.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Market maker makes money.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ugh. Days like these. I'm holding a stupid amount of common right now. Glad I didn't play the weeklies, but doubled up on my common in the past 2 days and now i'm eating it hard. I didn't want to play options with the stock at this level, instead I went common and sold the 360 june calls because the premium was good. However, then premium skyrocketed but the stock price went down, killing me on both fronts. Essentially the options doubled in value (i was short them) and the stock is down 10 dollars, sucking me 1500 dollars for every 100 shares I picked up. I think we find some support in the 242/243 range.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, really depressing end to the weekly. We're down over $20 from the high. I've got 100% loss on the MS upgrade gains. By doubling down on the weeklies for the gigafactory, I turned a great week for the stock itself into nothing. I would have been fine with the stock just running flat with relatively minor losses, but this is a pretty big correction since Wednesday's open.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Started to reverse my positions just now. Still net short, but much less short as of $243. Made a good bit of coin today. Feels like dirty money though. :redface:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Overall though remember how hard it seemed to break 200? Long term we will be fine
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's going on with the spy? I can't figure out why it's acting like it is- are we at a peak? Is it capitulation buying on the short side or are there things going on in different fields that are reverberating through the market?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Had I not been in commute Thursday morning, I was going to buy puts to cover the various calls/shares I had since it was back close to the ATH. By the time I got into work, it'd already dropped enough it didn't seem worth while. I wish I'd still bought them now of course. Would have really kept a lid on the losses.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The best thing to do is not panic. As I said in my earlier post (Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 242) the stock was definetely overbought and what we see now is a correction. I think the support level is way lower than that, though. I have 20 shares myself which I bought at 260-s, very lame.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    at times like these I need to remind myself to stop trying to time the market. I'm just going to hold throughout March... hopefully make enough to pay my taxes from cap gains last year lol
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We observe a correction, the stock was overbought. Pure IMO: it may go as low as 200 and then bounce back again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea. I've been trying to get back all the option losses (mostly contracts that were 1-2 months out, not weeklies) during the 180->120 crash. I hadn't played options before, bad time to get involved. The 40% of my original stock I left as stock keeps growing of course, subtly reminding me what it could have been if I'd keep it's friends with it. If I'd never sold a single share and simply held, I'd have 50% more value in my portfolio than I do now.

    I'd hoped this week was going to recover about 1/2 of that since it's not often you get spikes like this, but I managed to nix that. Who knows, maybe someday. I've got the money I started the week with, I just missed out on the gains.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've slowly taking my ITM March options off the table as we descend below 250. Not sure when it will stop, but I am definitely taking some of that MS gap up off the table with the expiry drawing nearer. Using some of the profits to fund Mar/Apr puts.

    Other than that, rolling up LEAPS (For a nice loss today) and sitting tight with cash at hand.

    For once, I actually feel reasonably well positioned for a move in either direction, and will have cash on hand to scoop up calls on the way down. If it keeps going up, woo hoo.

    *Note to self. The worst options play I ever made was buying Dec 175's on the way up to the Sept ATH of 194. I sold them off for a slight loss in October or something as we were coming off the ATH and gearing up for Q3 thinking "These are just going to bleed money." Never have I been more wrong. I don't even want to know how much those things could have saved my Q3 bacon had I held them to near expiry. (TSLA was nearing $117 around Xmas)

    The lessons for me is. Don't buy medium term puts and sell them in the short term. You never know when you're going to need to have those in the back pocket.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cashed out a few March 280 calls in the morning, bought them back 30 seconds before the bell. Not exactly elegant, but it worked.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Whew. That concludes a stressful, interesting and ridiculously profitable week. Cheers to everyone, enjoy your Friday pint and congratulations on the profits :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I did it, sold off 100 shares and 2 '15 contracts, only about ~10-15% of my total holdings, and I'm now net cash. Still have very deep ITM '16 LEAPs which I wasn't planning on realizing until they turn long term. Too bad the '15s were short term but they had the least gain of everything so at least I won't have to worry too much about taxes on those, and all my current and forseeable losses will be short term so I don't expect to have too much trouble. I ended up replacing the 300 share-equivalents with 5 400/500 '16 LEAPs, which isn't quite the same leverage, but close, assuming the stock hits 500 by '16, which I think there is a fair chance of happening. Max gain on those is about 900% (bought for 11.50 or something), so seems like a fair enough bet for me, especially since it wasn't that expensive overall.

    If we get a dip, I'll be able to buy in, but that wasn't the intent of selling. I just wanted to take some stuff off the table and get out of margin debit, considering I'm up multiple six figures since the beginning of the month, even though I was a stupid idiot and didn't play weeklies/March calls when I told myself I would (I still have my little reminder, which I ignored, "buy March calls" from Feb 21 to taunt me). Utterly insane month/week anyway.

    edit: something odd that did happen today is that I noticed, again, that I seem to lose more money (in terms of "total account value") on drops than I gain on rises of equivalent point values. I suppose I don't quite fully understand how leverage works on LEAPs, but that was a little bit disappointing. Maybe it's because these 125/175 '16 LEAPs (bought as stock replacement) are so deep in the money and I suppose thinly traded that I guess anything can happen...?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Such is the nature of options and time value erosion. You have to remember that every day (every hour really) every option contact slowly loses value as the time to it expiration is getting shorter even if the underlying stock makes no move.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    solution is a self-driving tesla. It's coming. Just ask Adam Jonas..

    Id love to be able to cruise the 405 in the car pool lane and have the car drive itself.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    These are 2 years out though, and so deep in the money that they have very little time value now. Not a lot of volatility either.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I think it has to do with how your brokerage calculated value of an option. Some use the bid price, some do some kind of math to come up with a "market price".

    I think that some brokerages show you the conservative valuation of an option so that you don't think that you have more money than you really do.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This would certainly solve the issue of ckessel missing the first 45 min of trading due to commuting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hmm, I didn't care much about about auto-driving, but maybe now I have a reason to care :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My observation over the years has been that for most people, attempting to time the market is foolhardy.

    Tesla's plan is a multi-year one, so I think that investors today should hold on to their shares for perhaps five or more years.

    Options of course are an entirely different game.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @FANGO
    Sleepy's exactly right on this. For example my broker computes he vales based on Bid price during trading hours, then after market closes,they us last trade or if none a midpoint of bid-ask. My account balance actually moves up by thousands after closing just due to this. Your so deep and long on expiration, the time decay on those is close to nothing. That said consider a little higher strike hat has more volume. On balance though I like your approach to use ITM LEAPS as stock leverage. Good move IMO
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Deep in the money options will actually be valued less than the value if you exercised the option and sold the stock (less the strike price). Schwab would argue that would be reasonable since doing that could lower the stock. Like 150 options could have an effect on a stock with average of 9 million shares sold on an average day
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think my brokerage uses last trade at all times.

    And I did like the stock replacement move, but it didn't result in quite as much upward movement as I expected. I was hoping to increase my leverage when it went down (130-140ish) by selling shares and getting more itm leaps, but I ended up with about the same leverage up as I had before. It did decrease my margin debit though, which helped a lot because I was in danger of getting margin called at the time. So I think it was mostly a good move. Tried to replicate that just now too, sold enough to be net cash and replaced with leap spreads - taking some profit but hopefully still getting to participate in nearly as much upside. Hope it works out, still getting the hang of complex options.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just a tidbit on the old Tesla-Apple rumor: I have long speculated that the purpose of the Apple & Elon meeting that had the market abuzz with merger rumors was really about Apple trying to get its products into Tesla's cars. The thing is, it would be extraordinarily difficult to seamlessly integrate Apple software into Tesla's fully-integrated car software without completely rewriting the code that runs the Tesla, which would be utterly pointless and would more than likely severely degrade the product for no benefit to Tesla or its customers.

    But it would appear Apple is still trying to push into the car "infotainment" market -- saw this this morning:

    Apple is reportedly launching iOS in the Car next week with Ferrari, Mercedes and Volvo

    Having ios software run a car's mp3 player, nav and phone, maybe do some calendar and web tricks, is not the same thing as building, testing and optimizing a fully-integrated car command & control system like Tesla's engineers have done over the last decade.

    This news actually makes me even more confident that every other automaker on the planet is completely behind Tesla Motors in the critical "Secret Sauce" of the car's software. They will either need to buy Tesla's integrated solution sometime in the future, hire hundreds of Silicon Valley engineers and build their own integrated car software, or risk obsolescence.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good points.

    Integration is not the way to go. Developing a unique system from scratch is the solution.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Before they could hire hundreds of talented software types from the valley they would actually need to find hundreds that would want to work for them. Or hey, Microsoft or RIM could do this, right?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My understanding is that iOS in car allows an iPhone owner to run certain apps on the phone (like maps and music) through their car's multimedia display.

    This kind of integration may have some advantages:

    (1) The end-user gets some interface consistency going from phone to car. Those who are familiar with iPhone won't have to re-learn a new system.

    (2) Software is certified and updated through Apple, so users are assured a high degree of usability (before, one could not be sure if the latest iPhone would always work with a car's entertainment system, even if it used to work with older iPhones).

    Having the car become a wrapper for an iOS device may be a selling point for some customers. Some car makers are going to want the Apple halo for this reason.

    I don't know that this matters much for Tesla, so long as the Tesla interface is easy to use and looks great.

    Does Tesla have integration for services like Siri and Google Now?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elons solution of projected mode makes the most sense to me as it has the potential to make everyone happy while protecting Tesla IP on software.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    good deal... to juice the leverage going forward, move the strike up some- remember since they are LEAPS you can worry a bit less about expiration value; I just posted a min-tutorial on my experience using LEAPS for stock in the Advance Options thread if interested.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I guess we all remember what's happening tomorrow? The european car of the year award.
    I do not have the exact time, but it will probably be before the market opens in the US:

    "The final vote and the announcement of the winner will take place on March 3, 2014 at the Congress Centre at Palexpo during the opening of the Press Days. The presentation ceremony will take place in the lobby at the Press Centre. Attendance will be reserved only for journalists accredited by the Motor Show organisers and for exhibitors. It will be transmitted live on the Motor Show website, 84e Salon International de lautomobile, exposition internationale de voitures, as well as on the Car of the Year website Car of the Year. This will be the first announcement made before the opening of the Geneva International Motor show."

    The election of The Car of the Year will be full of suspense and surprises! - Geneva Motor Show 2014

    The model S is not expected to win, but you never know.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Norse. Is there another car expected to win? And if so why?
    just curious as I haven't followed this contest or auto show before but it would be a nice feather in the cap if Tesla won this one as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think I read somewhere that the Mercedes is the favorite. It is an awesome car, and it is European. Then again, the Leaf won two years ago. Also check out the new Volvo Concept Estate, who do you think inspired them? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My money's on the BMW i3. Of course I'd prefer Tesla to win, but I don't think they have any real chance against BMW. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Why on earth would the BMW win?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because it's ugly. (Disclaimer: I'm a Bimmer fan, my last three personal cars before the Tesla were BMW's)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tech Crunch press Release

    A few new details about Tesla�s upcoming �affordable� electronic vehicle came out of a talk the company�s founder and CEO Elon Musk gave last week, and Electrek has the key takeaways from the event. Musk shared info around what we can expect from the upcoming mass market �Model E� from the electric car-maker, and those details suggest we�ll see a car with double the range and battery capacity of existing affordable electrics.

    Musk said that the Model E will be about 20 percent smaller than the Model S, and that it�ll attain the same 200 mile range on a single charge. That led Electrek to the logical conclusion that the Model E�s battery will be around 80 percent the capacity of that found in the Model S, which amounts to around 48kWh. That�s still over double the 24kWh battery in the Nissan Leaf, which has an estimated range of 75 miles on a full charge.

    The Model E should be priced at around $35,000 or half the entry-level cost of the Model S, thanks to economies of scale and improvements to battery production tech, which would indeed put it within striking distance for a mass market car buying audience. It would also make Tesla the market leader in an entirely new category when it comes to electric vehicles, which is good news for the car maker�s bottom line over the next decade or so.

    Tesla recently announced that it would be building a battery �gigafactory� to help it drive down the costs of its battery packs by over 30 percent, which is designed in term to help it build ad scale production of its mass market vehicle, which it wants to bring to market within around three years� time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If by that he means the Model E would have all linear dimensions at 80% of a Model S, that would place battery surface area at 64%. Overall car volume would be 51%. Normally, weight would be commensurate with volume, but due to several factors, especially that the battery may retain the same thickness, the car's weight would be greater than implied by volume and perhaps closer to that implied by area.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't think that the Model E volume will be 51% that of the Model S.

    When Elon says 20% smaller, I assume that he means 20% less materials used. I also think that there was a quote from JB or someone else who said that the Model E will not be much smaller than the Model S.

    If the Model S weighs 4600 lbs then the Model E will weigh ~3700 lbs.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is a pretty good read about stock manipulation. and inspired some introspection. Though I'd share.Jonathan Lebed: Stock Manipulator, S.E.C. Nemesis -- and 15 - New York Times
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
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    guest
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    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "just giving the bloody title away now"

    ref: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KzWIpuIeAU
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, quite a few TSLA buyers pushing things up from the open. Some of you guys have more cojones than me -- I'm out of the market almost entirely until Putin decides whether or not to shoot at people.

    Dabbling in VXX, but more for experimentation than actual gains.
    �
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