Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 7

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did, sold alot before closing. Only holding 12.5% of them now.

    They were at 8000% at one point. The funny thing as that i got them just as i saw the recall news just minutes before the press conference. Since I am a TMC reg I knew that was not true. But I doubt the bots did.

    So thank you Reuters for today! Also I feel bad for those who could not gain to much today because of those minutes in confusion.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep. Bought at 12 cents. Sold waaay tooooo soooon.... I didn't realize that the mass media was still trying to push the fact that it was the entire car that was recalled.
    Champagne is ordered but I lost the lottery ticket.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, I made a like if money on those 155's and I sold half. Not to mention all the other stuff I sold. I'm still happy with my trades today. I'm still a relative noob and after the lashing I got Q3, this is a great step in the right direction. I will be journaling before I go to bed tonight. This was a fantastic day for making some money but even more valuable than that is the experience of all the trades I made today and my thinking behind each of those trades.

    I half heatedly picked up 10 $165's around 1pm today, only to see the stock retreat $2 after I did. I almost sold them but chose not to because I felt the rally had tremendous momentum and everything else was in such good shape, well they are up 100% at market close so I am glad I made that move now.

    Had I not gotten the lashing at Q3 we would have made a huge pile of money today because I would not have liquidated so many of my positions with the best return at the first pull back while Jerome was on stage.

    My biggest regret was thinking there would be a run up through the end of the year and early January to this event and buying most of this months options in mid December only to see time decay chew them up and spit them out. Same thing happened to me in Q3. Personal note, don't buy options a fee months out for a weekly play. Lesson learned.

    I also don't think this is over. And now I'm sitting in some cash and not sure what to do because IV is up so leaps aren't a good idea and I'm not even sure about buying more June options right now. Maybe I'll pull a sleepy and add to my jaso position or just buy some common.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah I bought 1/18/14 140s this morning at the exact perfect bottom, but sold when they were "only" up 200%. closed +636%.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold 15% of my weekly options (I have 150, 155 and 160's but only sold 150's since I had the most of them and they have least room for more increase) before close, which paid off my entire outlay for all the weekly options I bought. So I still have 85% of them left for the rest of the week and they are completely risk-free now. I have never had a day even close to this before. Thanks to all of you for your great insight and sharing of knowledge regarding TSLA and options in general!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A fun observation. TSLA rose more today ($21.93) than the cost of my first shares @ $18.50 back in August, 2010.
    Today's move is helping to offset my Q3 Options debacle.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This friday will mark 1 year since I bought my first tesla stock. Something tells me I probably won't have the same suck friday if I do what you did today :p I also must thank Elon as over the last year I've up just shy of two years worth of my salary (well, some was due to solar). Life changing experience.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I really got a feeling of short time option trading, last days; Quickly the value of my options went down from $2,96 to close to nothing, and I regretted joining this game, but I hold on. Did stick to my plan, and today at my set price of $6 was closed, and I may play the 2nd one with no cost at all. I have set the price target to $24. Maybe I am getting greedy :eek:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    6900 deliveries was a lot higher than I expected :)

    Traded as high as 166 after hours!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I think I'll wait until Thursday to sell what options I have now. This is just based on May's run up taking 3 days before it peaked. I'll unload if it gets really ridiculous tomorrow and we see something like 190 but I'm thinking upper 170s tomorrow and maybe 180s Thursday. Just my guess..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have been plotting for this day for nearly a year. I had it all in my head but I got the itchy trigger finger and sold far too soon. I didn't think lightning could strike twice because the shorts would have learned from last time.

    I fell for the FUD even though I knew better. I can't even look at the price of 160's now. The best laid plans....

    I still leave my core shares untouched. I'm holding them as long as Elon does. I wonder if this will be a triple punch like last year when all the shorts doubled down claiming the short squeeze is a good time to get back in. They wagered on it being a quick spike and then they wagered against the forward looking statements too. The run lasted for a couple months.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I work nights, and its nights like this that I am happy to wake up to spikes like this! With this new found information I hope we break 200 next month after earnings report. Wishful thinking, but I am so close to being able to get to the amount I wanted to put down on my very own Tesla!

    Exciting!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Funny day,

    I actually experienced some self doubt during that FUD news period. Thinking, I thought it'll go up more than this. But I was working out in my gym so I didn't bother selling my 160s. Thinking I'll just let them expire and save some commission. Best lazy finger mistake ever.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I closed out some 140 March calls just before close of market today. I'd made good money on them already and expect to have an opportunity to re-use that cash on a dip later this week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    >170 pre-market. Buckle up, owning this stock is like a ride on a SpaceX rocket.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, so now I am not pleased with my choice to sell yesterday am, at the current pre market price cost me a S85.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, my 65% gain feels pretty crappy right now. Chalking it up as a learning experience--I sold when I realized there would be no X/AWD S reveal and hadn't thought clearly about the impact of the deliveries reveal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do limit orders on options behave the same way as they do on common stock?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Buy and hold, guys, buy and hold.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The premiums on my 160 feb calls are epic!!!! This is awesome LONG LIVE TSLA SHORT SQUEEZE 2.0
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is and has always been 95% of my TSLA position. I'm not upset about this option trade because it was a tiny little play. Frustrating only because 65% could have been 1200%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, my 170's are good. And I bought more of them this am.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Let's just Remember, Tesla is now a 21 BILLION Dollar company! I love that is was a 3 BILLION last year.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought some Jan18 $160 weekly puts this morning. Already up 100%, and took some profits. Gap has been filled from way back in November, and I would imagine that there will be a lot of profit taking at least early today.

    Now that TSLA pulled back to $167, I bought some Jan24 calls just in case the short squeeze lasts till next week to offset some of my short calls expiring this week.

    - - - Updated - - -

    sold all of my puts for a 2x, 3x, 4x return. Now loading up on short term calls as the stock swings the other way.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    my 165s were up huge this morning. now they are duds lol.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That is some fast, smart and bold trading right there.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not sure if the stock will swing the other way though, so I might just give up those put gains with my newly acquired calls. I am ok with that though, because I bought these calls as a hedge against a hedge; I will be fine either way. I just didn't want to see an epic short squeeze take us to $190 and then miss out because of my covered calls.

    But if TSLA does go up then the swing trade will have worked out perfectly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I also just cashed in a couple LEAPS I bought in the 130's, took big profits and bought a couple much cheaper Jan 24 170 calls to see if things move. It's nice to see some momentum again, isn't it?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry, I was mobile.... Anyway, the investment group that used to very bearish is now admitting they were wrong, were very surprized and are very impressed with TM and their outlook is shifting to bullish with a price target increase at 195 for perfection. The article is quite long and detailed with a good look at TM's free cash flow for short and mid-term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Braver than me by far. I have no idea where things are going. The only thing I was relatively sure of was a big market open and profit taking drop, given where it was at pre-market. I sold the last portion of options I had this morning.

    Everything else I had, I bailed far too early yesterday as I hugely underestimated the market's reaction. Had I held my options until days end (not even this markets open), I could have recovered most of what I lost on TSLA options on the Q3 drop. But, I thought it was doing fairly well to recover to $150 and sold there, but obviously it's sailed way beyond that now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Did we just close that gap? It looks like it was almost perfect.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cashing in my weekly $172.5's for 20%, 40%, 60%, etc. gains in small tranches.

    - - - Updated - - -


    I think we did, that is why I bought my puts. Easy money.

    - - - Updated - - -

    But I think that momentum has shifted positive for TSLA so I would not be shorting it right now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dont think this Tesla run has much left in the tank. Looking at the NASDAQ chart and the TSLA chart they are starting to mirror each other the last half hour or so. So Market movements have a larger impact them Tesla moving forward on its own steam. That is just how i see things. What do you guys think?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone wanna predict todays close?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think we either flatline in the 160's with a few dips downward as the shorts pile on, and the market decides 160's are the right price given sales increase and "leaves it at that." *OR* the pre-earnings squeeze happens early, and we see $180 before end of next week. Just my guesses.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, it looks like it. Hopefully the next leg of the rally will be due to positive catalysts coming in such as analyst upgrades, NHTSA, additional positive news from Tesla leading up to the Q4 report. Let's see if Tesla management plays the coming month skillfully in regards to keeping a good momentum. It's like the goal is wide open and the goalkeeper is no where to be seen :smile:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doesn't work for options, as the time value decays. The question is, after closing out an open call position, how quickly do you put that money back into options, and then what's the right strike & expiration? More challenging than buying the underlying equity, but much more upside.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If i was a chart mad scientist then i would look at the trend over the last two days and put the days close a bit over $171, that would be nice.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    There seems to be a very clear picture of the underlying strength as a direct continuation of yesterday's trading. See nice blue image bottom right of this screen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thinking about Short Squeeze. What do you guys think about action tomorrow. You think we will see another solid up day as people cover so as not to go into the weekend?

    TSLA continues to mirror the NASDAQ's general trend.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are people doing with their jan options that expire this week? I'm considering rolling mine out to feb or March.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm very surprised by how boring today's action has been. After some initial very heavy trading and testing both a new 170 and 160 level, the stock has settled into a narrow trading band around 165-166. I was assuming that things would be a bit more volatile today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you, Discoducky. That is indeed interesting! (Was cooking & eating, myself)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    4pm
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He'll be here all week. Try the veal.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank goodness for that comma! I was concerned about the self-eating.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here. It may just be a bit of a break until tomorrow. Hopefully there will be more news and upgrades.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I nibbled at some Jan 24 180's that are basically flat. Thought long and hard as I way trying to fall asleep how to play Q4 last night. Was convinced some stagger strike March 22 calls around 180-190 would have been perfect. Then i check the pre-market numbers and went back to sleep, no way I was going to touch anything until it calmed some.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm going to be taking small positions in 180s and even some 190s for next week. The balance of news is still going to be positive for TSLA. I've seen this kind of story before in stock with heavy short interest and the run just keeps going...

    As for this week, I think we will test 170s again before the end.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    167.82

    I'm going to close mine out on Friday afternoon and re-establish the portion of my core position that I had to unfortunately liquidate after a bad Q3 play, and maybe buy a small amount of very short-term calls. I'm extremely bullish on the next few weeks/months but the premium on the post-earnings options is way too high for me. I think I'll sell puts instead.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    166.62
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for this 772. It got my head out from under the rock and stop being scared. It made me flip my sentiment of thinking that the stall in today price movement was a bad thing, but make me think it was a thing to take advantage of and i bought a few 180s for next week as well.

    EDIT: and now we have some action!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is what I plan to do with the last 10 of my Jan18 140s. I think I might split them for just before and just after ER to try to catch one big jump. Just not sure if we will continue run up to ER, then dip or trade in 160s-170s to ER, then pop......
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just bought back my 170s that I sold last month as a hedge (at a profit too). I think that we might be heading north of $170 this week, and don't want to be on the wrong side of the trade.

    If you think about it then that 6900 number is significant, and this is before battery supply constraints have been resolved. This also shows that Tesla will most likely double production in 2014. And as Jerome said for 2014 they have growth, growth, growth in their plans.

    I am thinking that this train is heading towards $200.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm just giddy right now. It feels like the "good old days," back last spring. Just like the profitability announcement before Q1 caused a significant jump, but was only a prelude to the earnings call and aftermath.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Haha, I have that deer in the headlights look right now. Not sure what to do. I'd like to keep the last few days gains but I'd like to stay leveraged. That's why I'm thinking of rolling out to feb and March and keeping the same strikes. Leverage won't be as much but it's not as risky either. All my weeklies are now itm except for the 170's. My gut says that volume will pick up this afternoon and the bull will try again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You think we will see another good buy in opportunity? I only have j15 calls left and looking to get some 14
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Either today was that opportunity or the stock will not go up as much as I am thinking. If there is weakness tomorrow then the rally is not as strong as I am thinking. Therefore, either buy today or don't buy at all and wait till next week in the 150s.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks I was thinking the same thing (150s ).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    HUH?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought some more weeklies on this end of day profit taking pullback by the weak longs, aka momo traders. Looking for a nice analyst upgrade tomorrow morning, followed by more panic buying.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When there was reversal today and the stock was around $164 I bought a few $170 weeklies for $1.9. Then the stock didn't really move much and their premiums came down. So when it partially surged again I sold them for ~$2 just to close out the trade. Minutes later the stock came down slowly again only to end in a strong sales move. At the bottom I bought one $170 back for $1 ;) This one I let run overnight in case tomorrow goes exactly as you describe, but I didn't bet too strong. Still have a $157.5 for Jan 31st around too to catch stronger upwards move.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope you are right as usual, cause I am still holding a lot! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope so too, however i've positioned myself for a move to the low 160's and high 150, where i think we'll sit for a bit until things calm down. There's not enough pressure to squeeze higher (not enough margin calls on a 20% movement, and we're only 10 dollars over what the shorts were entering at=155) but there's now much less fear in tesla (higher guidance, less fear of recall) so we won't see a drop below 155.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm always happy to see TSLA go the opposite direction from the market.
    Edit: when the market is down I mean to say...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    has anyone noticed the wait time for a p85 has now gone to 1-2 months from 1 month. anybody questioning demand when wait time increasing with larger production numbers is crazy
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Customer base is growing. At first just US, then added Europe, now adding China. Every time they add a new area, they will have to significantly increase production, or the times will go up a bit for the existing areas. I think they have managed the expansion very well, since the times have not gone up drastically on any of the expansions. They increase production slowly and then when it has grown enough they expand into a new area.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Truth of the matter is that we have so little visibility into all of that process that making any conclusions based it is ludicrous. As an investor (bull or bear), do you really care that much if Tesla sells a P85+ to Hong Kong or to UK or to California? As long as Tesla is production constrained and is keeping everyone mostly happy, questioning demand is idiotic.

    What is concerning is when Tesla has quality issues and is slow to respond. There are only so many times at bat that Tesla has before the customer is too pissed off.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I rolled half our 170's to next week. Keeping the 155 and 165's for now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Assuming these are weeklies (155 & 165's) what kind of % hit are you taking from theta decay each day? Maybe they are so ITM it doesn't matter, but I'm curious the all the same.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    .1 for the 155 and .3 for the 165's. I sold the 165's now too. The 155's are deep enough I'm not that worried about them. I bought next weeks 165's, 170's, and a few 180's. Sitting on 30% of what I sold as cash.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I meant in the context of holding for a couple of days rather than a couple of hours ;-)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just realized that the official super charger map shows coast-to-coast travel in the US is now possible, but I don�t hear anyone talking about that! No press release, nothing. This is a pretty major milestone from my point of view - 14 months ago there was not one supercharger station yet (opening of first stations on 11/19/12)!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I saw something from Tesla saying that they weren't going to call it complete until all stations are 150mi or less apart. It is feasible now in a 80kWh, but you'll need to do full charges at times. That's not good enough for them to start touting it yet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah I concur. They have 3-4 holes to fill to make that an announcable reality. Won't be long, couple of months I'm guessing. Not too far from East coast completion as well. I'll bet they announce both concurrently
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is discussed elsewhere in the forum. We are still about 4-5 Superchargers away from completion, hence no announcement yet. Similarly, we are 2 stations away from the east coast north/south route. It is very likely both of these will be complete this month or first week of Feb.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can you point me to where it�s discussed? Didn�t find anything. Thanks.

    At the current pace I don�t think it will be months!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Discussion about the gaps in the SC network here: Tesla Supercharger network - Page 344
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree, it's more like days or weeks from being relatively convenient for an 85 kW S to go coast to coast and it's absolutely historic, and it feels like it's sneaking up on the majority, like most folks don't even know it's happening. Even myself, a seriously passionate and up to date EV advocate is finally taking it seriously that this network is truly going to happen for real. One of the things that is historic about it is that the fueling network is being installed by a single company and one that also sells cars... no auto company has ever been in control of delivering fuel to their customers at the most cut rate possible, FREE! honestly, from the perspective of looking for indications of long term viability of a company and how that could influence short term TSLA, I would think the combination of high sales numbers and opening of something like 26 stations across the country just in the last 6 weeks would get a lot more notice. For the big three accepting Tesla as the 4th, it's a rather "Bambi Meets Godzilla" moment http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfnuxv_bambi-vs-godzilla_creation... everything is about to change and still, the birds chirp and the big three are patting themselves on the back for the latest "car of the year" accomplishments, of creating a totally outmoded vehicle. Tesla is now well on it's way to proving this technology is viable, that they have what it takes to succeed and providing not just a little competition to the ICE, but possibly obliterating it overnight once people fully get what is/has happened. Surely there will be lots of volitility along the way, but I suspect that there is a huge wave ahead for TSLA in the not too distant future and I don't want to miss out on the rise when it really goes kablam. From an investors point of view, this makes me want to stay long rather than take profits from the latest bump, because I am very emboldened by the progress Tesla is making with the super charging network and sure that once the majority of the network is in place by the end of the year, the interest in Tesla and TSLA is going to explode! I do think the effect of the nationwide charging network deserves more discussion in the TSLA threads with respect to stock price. I continue to be sure there is no real metric by which to compare TSLA to with regard to determining if it is oversold or undersold, there is nothing else like TESLA and there is a very good chance the current stock price is still a fraction of what it is going to be, sooner than later, IMHO.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1000

    This is jet another fact why it is just not valid to compare Tesla to any other car company in the world!
    It is so much more than that!
    Tesla should use the opening of the trans-continental coast-to-coast charging route to illustrate people what Tesla already achived up to today.
    They should do a great SuperCharger-opening-ceremony!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Remember that the companies that made the BIG bucks from the widespread adoption of the gasoline-fueled car has been the gasoline companies, not the car companies. Tesla is wise to control this portion of the value chain for its cars.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If I can drive across coast on electric for free, I'd rather drive than fly. I think all travelling sales people should buy a tesla. Makes that USA client visit all that enticing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, +1!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm debating the start of a "How are you going to play Q4" thread, but I'll start here as it seems like the best place.

    I'm currently sitting on some healthy gains between SPWR and CSIQ common in my tax-free account, along with some even TSLA LEAPS I don't particularly want to touch. My regular investing account strategy may mirror whatever I decide to do with the tax-free, or I may just sit it out to avoid too much exposure a la Q3. In fact, I did this exact thing for Q3, and was sitting on some very healthy gains in the tax free account off short-term (2 weeks post-ER) calls that were promptly decimated during the cc. At least it was mostly house money, but infuriating none the less. Really trying to learn here.

    I'm thinking: Wait for the next TSLA dip, offload some solar and then buy as many March calls as I can across multiple strikes. I was originally hoping to do this yesterday, an I did actually get a few march Calls, but I was worried that the recent run-up was still very volatile and that the March premiums are very hefty because of the IV, so I flipped them for a small gain and am once again sitting.

    Like many others on here, I had great success in Q1 and Q2, and was all-in for Q3 only to get badly burned. I'm really trying to learn from my mistakes this time around. Given all of the potential news on the horizon and no mystery VIN number spreadsheets to confuse us, I only see good things coming.

    I am thinking that a less aggressive strategy may be required, perhaps a straddle, strangle or back spread with calls. Anyone care to comment?

    * I have a feeling that this may belong in one of the Options trading threads.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    March 170's are $13. ouch. Have to close out at 183. I feel like the option market is doing a good job if I can't figure out which side of the trade I want to be on, and that is one.

    Anyone else feel like we are technically overbought for the very short term? Any other catalysts looming the next few days?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NHTSA clearance will be the big catalyst, could be any day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That and the Golden Spike connecting the nation with Tesla Supercharger stations. Both happenings should cause financial analysts and the media in general to attempt to outdo each other in providing favorable reviews of the company.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest


    Everyone seems very confident that Tesla will get a full NHTSA clearance... Is anyone besides me afraid of being blind-sided by some type of recall or suggested modification? I just have this bad feeling like everyone is calling it a sure-thing and we really have no clue. Kind of feels like pre Q3 earnings right now. Or...maybe Im just paranoid.

    I understand that the German body already cleared them. I understand it might make them look foolish that they reiterated a 5 star rating. I understand that they are technically only concerned with passenger safety and no one was hurt. That is all great and clearly leads to everyone's confidence in the matter... but I'm afraid we shouldn't confuse ourselves with the facts...

    Thoughts?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think anything besides a complete seal of approval would be considered a negative.
    I too am concerned that a statement like 'it's adequate, but opportunities for improvement to battery shielding exist and should be entertained' will cause chaos.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nothing is impossible, but to me, it sounds like Tesla has been working closely with NHTSA and given how proactive they have been with the OTA updates and NEMA adapter replacements, if they had any idea further immediate modifications would be required, I'm sure they would have done them already (or at least started).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not taking a NHTSA clearance for granted. There's definite risk of a recall to reinforce the undercarriage.

    However, even if there was a recall I don't think it would be catastrophic for Tesla. The stock might get hit some. But the costs of reinforcing the undercarriage should be minimal. $500-1000 for each car (since Tesla owns their own service centers) x 30,000 cars = $15m to $30m.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I share the same view as Dave.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not so afraid. I think Tesla is more worried about safety than NHTSA. If NHTSA would consider a recall I am sure Tesla would beat them to it. And after Elons last tweet I am quite confident that a recall is not the plan. They could however mention that Tesla could improve the car, but I doubt that aswell. The fire-incidents only made me more sure that I want a Tesla. If I die in a Model S I will become famous!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If it weren't for the short term effect on the brand and TSLA, I'd have no hesitation in favoring that Telsa offer an additional shield to the underbelly. I bet with some engineering, that it would likely only be required in the initial impact zone, something like the first third of the underside of the car. it could even be offered as optional upon owners request, like the cold weather vent upgrade. I don't think the risk of puncture and fire needs to be eliminated completely, but significantly reducing it further would be good, if it can be done economically. I'd like to return to being able put the car on auto and let it lower all the way at high speeds without worrying so much about the "family jewels" being so "exposed".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I thought I was the only one who had thought of that. If I die in my model s, someone defend me when these forums inevitably wonder if I was an extra dedicated shorter...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How about a "suicide crasher"?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    LOL! And btw, I do not think it will be catastrophic at all. The more I think if it I might hope it happens.

    If a recall happens, as Dave says it would not cost as much for Tesla Motors.
    But for me as a future buyer, the safest car has now become even more safe! And the only concern is gone!
    I actually think it will be the buying opportunity of our lifetime in regards to TSLA, and demand over time would IMO increase as well, as we would se less fires.

    So if they could take away that only concern I bet they would have done it already.
    Tesla Motors knows the car way better than what NHTSA do, so I am pretty sure that will not happen.

    If it does, I will be loading up on the stock!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The "Golden Spike" station will be a big news maker and should bump the stock price nicely. Anyone know which station will complete the coast to coast network? And when it will go online?

    Cheyenne and Cranberry appear to be the last stations needed. Knowing when those go live could be helpful for short-term trading.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So far, it doesn't appear that Supercharging and the inevitable finished coast to coast route completion has moved the stock at all. I'm not betting that it has any effect by itself in the short term. However, it could be part of a multi-part PR campaign. In reality, this deployment should have a big psychological impact on potential purchasers, but that will take some time to show up in the stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed the aim of the Golden Spike announcement will be at potential car buyers. A great many people still have little awareness of the company, its cars or electric cars in general. I had none at all shortly before I bought all my shares nearly a year ago. Some still accept the range anxiety FUD. The Golden Spike will clear away much of that. The news will be widely spread with no advertising cost. Investors may soon awaken from their stupor and realize the great impact on the company.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My bet would be in cranberry Twp.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am not at all concerned about the actual safety of the car. I am deeply concerned, however, of the possibility of NHTSA issuing an irrational ruling. NHTSA literally has the power to completely sink the company. There are elements of a ruling which could devastate the companies prospects....for example, if they suggest/mandate that the battery pack be placed somewhere else. Let's remember that Tesla only has one product and it is the key to financing their future plans for expansion. Without the Model S, the company shuts down.

    The possibility of the above happening is very low, but it is not zero. Other potential rulings could also have a detrimental effect. What if they mandated extra shielding on the battery pack? If that brought to a halt the assembly line for a while, that would be very problematic given that, again, the Model S is Tesla's only product. It's also possible that the ruling forces Tesla to make a modification that adds to the vehicle weight and/or impairs the aerodynamics, which ultimately reduces range. Remember, that aerodynamics and range are so important that Tesla would like to get rid of side mirrors even.

    I am also concerned with D Strickland's move to Venable and what that might signal regarding his leanings.

    I'm long TSLA with a pretty sizable chunk of my portfolio, but have bought some protective puts as insurance against the NHTSA. Their ruling still remains my single biggest concern as it is not in the hands of Tesla leadership now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think any severely negative ruling would clearly be an outright attack on Tesla and I'm sure could be taken to court or overturned somehow. There is no way they could demand drastic changes to the Model S for being "not safe" and not do the same for every car ever made. Especially after they have reiterated the 5 star safety rating and the Germans approved it. It's a good idea to be cautious but I just can't imagine the results being so bad it takes down the company. Tesla may be "small" but they're not hopeless.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sure hope Tesla does something like this and figures out how to get the press to really pick it up. for some reason the opening of the west coast super charging network was not well orchestrated and got very little press, it was kind of a non-event. The coast to coast line could attract a lot more attention if promoted adequately, playing off the history. What is likely to happen at this point is that one or more owners are going to beat Tesla to the punch and cross the US any day now. IMHO, Elon should try and be the first. Or perhaps going the other way and encouraging many owners to caravan would bring more attention...I wish I was sure. For some reason a charging network doesn't seem to feel as breath taking to people who don't own EV's, even though range anxiety appears to be one of the main things that has held back the adoption of EV's up till now. It may take the entire country blanketed with super chargers to really wow people enough to be get real media attention and be reflected in TSLA.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In a case where Tesla were ordered to recall vehicles and reinforce the battery pack underside, the consensus here seems to be that it would be no big impact to Tesla's bottom line, maybe $500-1000 per car. Ok fine. But . . .

    Wouldn't any kind of real reinforcement to the underside of the car involve additional weight to the car? Enough weight to impact the maximum range of the car? That is the issue I wonder about, in terms of impact to Tesla's perceived value.

    I mean, look at how people reacted here with the max-90kW supercharging revelations on early S's. Imagine if everyone suddenly had reduced range. The forums will be in flames. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a hard time seeing a mandatory recall. And even if it was voluntary, I don't see many owners going for it. Even if it was mandatory, how could they force us to do it? Can't sneak it in a software update.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I still want my Tesla Model P (for Plane). At least one of the superchargers is right beside an airport (Harris Ranch).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree it could be very bad if - in the highly unlikely event - NHTSA puts out a ruling that is not entirely positive. But I disagree that it would "completely sink the company". Sure, it puts a big spanner in US sales - but don't forget Tesla has already achieved a pretty good bridgehead in Europe and soon China, and in Spring they will introduce the right-hand drive for several additional markets.

    So even in that extremely strange case I think Tesla could soldier on while litigating the stuffing out of such an if that occurs - in my opinion honest - corrupt agency. While there is life there is hope, and as long as the company remains a going concern I have a hard time seeing it lose.

    Still, other stuff can happen, like a general market collapse such as what I feared in October.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat


    This has already happened many times. There are multiple blogs about it. Also a roadster owner went around the world a year or two ago. Google "model s xc" and "1 e race."

    Tesla itself also drove a roadster cross country to the show floor at 2009 naias.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Meh, should have sold off my weeklies yesterday. At best, things look to be running flat, so I at least would have gotten a small time premium if I'd sold yesterday.

    Or, this morning if I'd been conscious, but damn the market opens early for a west cost person...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So with open interest at 11,000 on the 170s should we expect a close at 170.0 today? In my case that would be quite interesting being that I sold covered calls with a 170 strike price in August. Apparently I called that perfectly although I bought the calls back in December.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looking back the at the week, we're basically bouncing around what the market opened at on Wednesday. Barring a catalyst, not sure if there'd be any reason for it to move away from that point.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Truthfully, we're probably going to be flat till earnings. The only pop that would come is a NHTSA announcement. What's going to matter with earnings is Gross Margin progression, FY14 Guidance, and timing of announcements of Model X.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm kind of bored tonight so I'm going to host a google hangout to chat about anything investment-related. This is just for TMC members here. Here's the link:
    see below

    I'll leave it open for a couple hours. If you're online, join in and let's chat. Even if it's just a few people, it might be fun to talk face-to-face.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Didn't work.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    see below
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dave: I can see you; but I'm not sure how to join as a live participant.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We're online with 3 people.
    �
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