1/1/2015
guest You mean a short squeeze? Hope so, brother. Hope so.�
1/1/2015
guest Just as soon as the Gigafactory partnerships and location are announced. Silence in public is quite normal during such negotiations, in fact likely required by non-disclosure agreements. But investor frustration over the silence has been a key factor keeping pressure on the share price. Elon likely had the process all figured from the beginning, and is now playing the involved entities like strings on the violin that used to be in his twitter photo. I expect everything to be in place no later than the upcoming quarterly conference call. Elon would not like to have to avoid questions about it at that time. The announcement that stuns short sellers and greatly rewards patient shareholders could come any day now.�
1/1/2015
guest If we hit that level the college fund and the second mortgage go in :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest Curt, mostly to manage my own expectations, I've just sort of assumed it will take the better part of 2014 before partners are finalized and announced. No expertise here, just general life experience that anticipated events with large institutions involved take significantly longer than one would otherwise think (case in point, NHTSA report on Tesla investigation). Is there anything in particular that makes you think this will get done within a month (next quarterly call)? Tesla definitely can move fast... it's the other players that have me telling myself not to expect anything until the fall or winter.
fwiw, while I hope we don't have to wait, even if we do, I agree with your suggestion of Elon delivering a very satisfying arrangement for Tesla and its shareholders.�
1/1/2015
guest The facts that Tesla has already borrowed its share of the money for the Gigafactory, and that the facility needs to be ready for Gen III requirements in 2017, if not sooner for faster production of Models S and X.�
1/1/2015
guest something that i thought was interesting along the lines of the timing of the partner announcements was from the gigafactory blog post (and related PDF): on the last page that showed a timeline of events related to the gigafactory, if you'll notice, the arrow showing "partner discussions" reaches nearly to the end of 2014. this leads me to believe that (like steve's assumption) we will likely have to wait until late 2014 to get full details about tesla's partners. i did find it interesting in the goldman report that came out today that they indicated that "Tesla management categorically dismissed that any aspect of its commercial relationship with Panasonic has changed".
will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
surfside�
1/1/2015
guest Yes, in pretty confident another short squeeze will happen in the near future. We're quiet for a few reasons.
1. Elon only has so much time and SpaceX has a launch on Monday, so I'd imagine his immediate focus isn't on Tesla news releases. After launch, he'll probably throw himself full into Tesla.
2. We are probably on the cusp of a quiet period before earnings which will arrive sooner than one may think.
3. All hands are on deck for Model S ramp up, Model X development, and Gigafactory selection. I'd actually be more bothered if Tesla was worrying about share price.
4. There's a ton of bond holders, did you see the dilution presentation? The 300+ convertible price?
5. I tend to believe history likes to repeat itself. People till don't get it yet. This story isn't over until Model E arrives and gets significant share of market.
Markets right now are on risk off mode and are jittery due to the Fed and earnings season coming up. For Tesla, there are WAYY too many people with short positions and potential catalysts for an upward boom. I don't mind this little lull we are having. It buys me more time for my short term to become long term investments
�
1/1/2015
guest I was really hoping for a good rally at the end of day. At least the index futures are in the green right now.
I still think that big money is going to want to be in TSLA significantly before ER. At the moment, they may be content forcing the price lower to have a better entry point.
The question in my mind is whether or not we get a hint before ER like we did with the North American Auto Show last quarter. First deliveries in the UK and/or China would be prime opportunities if they are public events, so the timing of those events is critical if there is going to be a move before earnings. I doubt we get Gigafactory updates of any sort before ER, but it would be welcome.�
1/1/2015
guest Interesting catches, surfside and SteveG3. The use of broad arrows rather than a detailed description was undoubtedly intentional to keep the timeline flexible. The early arrows overlapping in time leaves a lot of room for variance in dates. Those first ones may have been colored in gray to signify particular vagueness. If taken as it appears, the red arrow for facility construction makes it seem that it could be commencing by May of this year. Indeed, you may be right that an announcement is more likely to come late this year. But I still favor the notion that Elon could surprise everyone much sooner.
- - - Updated - - -
See the prospectus: Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424�
1/1/2015
guest Curt, i do agree that Tesla has positive catalysts the market doesn't fully appreciate that could come virtually at any moment. I even agree that news on Gigafactory partners could be one such catalyst... I just look at that particular one as an item I try to manage my expectations on. Nice surprise if it happens in a month or two, but a source of frustration if I expect that to be the case.�
1/1/2015
guest When sentiment is negative and there's no substantive bad news, time to buy.�
1/1/2015
guest Hope our ira funds hit our accounts soon. It's buying season.�
1/1/2015
guest AntiC and Shadows: Like your attitudes. Long term ( for purposes of this discussion I will define it as up to ERQ2/3 and guidance) I believe $200 will have looked like a buying opportunity.
Before that I believe we are in a correction stage that is market wide. Friends with a little more experience than I project the markets to be at best is a sideways mode/funk for Q! and into early Q2. ERs for Q! may be disappointing, because of geopolitics and the effect of a brutal winter season on growth. I see the bottom for TSLA swing as being more in the 180s, low 190s. I hope I am wrong and you guys are right.�
1/1/2015
guest
Yes it is, when there is blood in the streets and people are fearful of falling knives (i.e.Brysondad) it is the time to buy...this is the expected correction we've all been waiting for and is healthy consolidation for the overall market. A great time to buy in my opinion too�
1/1/2015
guest So, what is your strategy for TSLA. Stock, LEAPS? Thanks Al�
1/1/2015
guest Yea, me too, I really messed up late February. I'm still up for the year because January and mid February were such huge gains. However being a noob cost us lots of money.
My gut tells me that when this trend us over it's going to rocket up quickly. I'd love to call the bottom, however for long term I will be very pleased to get tsla and solar at these prices.�
1/1/2015
guest My accounts are maxed out with stock and 2016 LEAPs in both my taxable acct and my IRA...I'm stuck in my taxable acct as I need to wait a few more months for LT gains to kick in before I do anything...but in my IRA I may sell stock to buy a combination of 2016 LEAPs and Sept 250 calls...I'm thinking about it...but probably will not act on that unless we go below 195�
1/1/2015
guest I see why people are looking at $205 as an attractive price. it is. I just want to share what's helped me out over many years in terms of picking up trading shares on a core position of a very long term play. I do my opportunistic buying in pieces. In other words, as I have X dollars I'm looking to buy some trading shares with, I'm going to divide X by 3 and look to pick up in 190s, 180s, and 170s. I'll be totally happy if I never get any shares in the 170s, or any shares at all as I have my core holding and will gladly watch TSLA works its way back up without ever dropping through $200 if thats how things turn out. if it does go to the 170s, this approach makes it more pleasant to me. I realize some of you guys are all about trading, so this may not make sense for you... but I've been pretty happy with this over the years as a way to augment buy/hold gains.
I should also mention, I only see a substantial chance of lower prices because of the general market, growth/"momo" looking fairly likely to continue falling... and thus I think it's quite likely we drop below $200. As to Tesla itself, I think the last few weeks have had quite a bit of good news, but between now and earnings, Tesla's rather susceptible to just moving with the market.�
1/1/2015
guest I grabbed my LEAPS and some 220 and 240 Sept calls what turns out to be a little early:frown:. But I guess I have myself set up for a possible Q1 and Q2 ER surge with the Sept calls.....well at least that is what I hope. Good luck to all in these turbulent times!�
1/1/2015
guest Well, under 200 premarket. Cloudy day ahead.�
1/1/2015
guest Investors with a long time horizon should worry less about this, especially given that Tesla is a company with a bright future. I think that people make the mistake of wanting to buy at the absolute bottom, which is hard to predict.�
1/1/2015
guest I think anyone worked about the short term is likely owning investment methods that are shorter term. Even LEAPs become short term in a bear market. So what are peoples protection strategies (and yes I know that those with stocks only can just hold until the rain passes).�
1/1/2015
guest This is my view at this point. I have full faith that Tesla is heading in the right direction, and am not so worried about their short term share price. If anything, this is a buying opportunity, not a cause for worry.�
1/1/2015
guest Meh. If worst comes to worst, dead LEAPS become a tax deduction for realized gains in shares, and we can buy more if it dips down to ridiculously low levels. I'm staying put for the time being, but might buy more common stock if we go down to $170 or something. Sure glad I hedged after the run-up, though.�
1/1/2015
guest im in the same boat as you. I bought some sept calls a couple days ago when the price was hovering around 207-210. I expected more resistance at 200 and did not think we would get to it so quickly(if at all). Either way, september should be more than enough time for tesla to shoot off some more fireworks.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, in the context that many of us here believe in a Tesla long term future where both the sales of it's BEVs and it's stock price are going to rise dramatically, it would be natural for many of us to invest towards that future. The moaning and groaning about short term losses, even if they are dramatic shouldn't detract from the long term picture. For 2020, will it really matter that the stock price went from $265 to $195 if the stock is trading well north of $500? Further, we've been here before. The stock has retreated mightily before and the doubters have been screaming since well under $30.
Maximizing gains with short term trading, however, is still an art and is not for the feint of heart. But none of this short term action changes my long term beliefs.�
1/1/2015
guest Moderator Note: Some posts have gone over to the land of snippiness. Healthy debate is good. Personal attacks? bad. Let's please try to keep it civil.�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks Moderator.
BrysonDad,
It's ok if you are short or have a short mentality on the stock, healthy debate is good as the Moderator says. Please just be a little more mature about how you express your view instead is sounding like a bratty school kid trying to insult his classmates.
Just because your view is contradictory to most other's view on here about TSLA stock does not mean you have to be defensive in how you express it by condescending others. We are all big boys here and will treat you with respect as long as you treat others respectfully.
we actually want you to voice your contradictory viewpoints, so please do not leave, just argue them politely. Thanks.�
1/1/2015
guest agreed. I may have something like unconditional appreciation for TESLA, but drop out the E, and I try for a "Spock"-like approach, all data appreciated, but emotions, uh, what are those?�
1/1/2015
guest I was here 5 minutes ago checking things out. I noticed the moderator removed brysondad's post above. I would like to voice that I don't agree with the moderator's action.
The topic of group-think is very relevant to investing. This thread is called "Social Chat Short Term TSLA Movement".
I see brysondad's comments as very relevant to TSLA stock traders. I happen to think he is right pointing out the completely-one-sided tone of this investment forum.
It is obvious to me many of you guys here are just not interested in hearing anything negative about: 1) this business, 2) this stock, and 3) traders of this stock. (BTW, three completely different topics).
brysondad's comment was very much about the psychology of the traders here. IMO his comments are useful and valid. He simply held up an mirror (in the post that was removed.)
p.s. Before you guys attack me further, for the record, I love this company, I drive an EV and love the Model S and the Nissan LEAF, I completely admire Elon Musk. I happen to be long this stock at the moment. You guys may not like me and brysondad because we see this forum from a different light, but I am actually trying to be constructive here on TMC. After all this is an Internet stock forum, brysondad and I could easily just walk away.
I hope my post will not be removed by the moderator for being off topic.�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks for your thoughts Hummingbird/tftf. Why are you long the stock if you think it is over-valued?�
1/1/2015
guest I am not tftf. I never suggested the stock was under valued or over valued. I simply said I am long for the moment.�
1/1/2015
guest So TSLA has been finding strong support at 204 even as it's been tested repeatedly. If it does crash through, however, where is the next support level?�
1/1/2015
guest Good question. Whenever this 'correction' is over and nasdaq stops dropping (QQQ) and that will be the support level for TSLA I would presume before it marches back upwards as good news starts hitting.�
1/1/2015
guest This.
Insulting those looking at the glass half full adds no value to the discussion. Telling us why it might be half empty is a welcome point of view.
I've read numerous other posts by the user in question and I don't find them to be particularly negative, but they are generally poorly presented and somewhat incindiary.
Back on topic: TA Analysts, how well do the technicals generally hold up under Macro conditions like this?�
1/1/2015
guest Elon's health and well-being is a risk I'm very aware and conscious of. Elon is very aware of this as well (more so than probably any of us) and takes necessary security precautions. He's also still very young, 42 years old, so health risks are lower than if he was 10 or 20 years older. Also, he's not the "head of 3 companies" rather he's CEO of two companies: Tesla and SpaceX. And he's done a remarkable job managing both companies for many years.
The main positive catalyst for this year is Tesla ramping production. They are going from 600 cars/week to 1000 cars/ a week by the end of the year, all while achieving at least 28% gross margin. Model X demand also looks healthier than most anyone has predicted/expected, so 2015 also looks like a very strong year as well. Tesla can likely deliver 40,000 cars this year ($4b revenue) and 70-80,000 cars next year ($7-8b revenue).�
1/1/2015
guest First let me say that I agree that non-group-think postings are valuable.
I disagree on this one. It doesn't matter how much China's economy might go down, it still has a huge number of wealthy status-conscious new buyers, and I seriously can't imagine that the introduction of the Model S won't be a huge success. There's execution risk still, I agree, but no demand risk.
When it's on the road it looks a lot like many other crossovers, just like the Model S looks nice but basically similar to many others. That doesn't mean that it can't/won't be distinctive and high-tech, and the doors are an essential part of that. But I agree that there's execution/schedule risk, and I wouldn't be surprised at a further delay in the Model X, and some teething problems with the door.
This is really two things. Being far away is, I think, a non-issue, given that currently the cells come from Japan, and rail transport is very reliable compared to shipping and import. And I work with some bakeries, they rarely have more than a couple of weeks of ingredients to hand.
I simply disagree with this one. The subsidies have stimulated the initial demand, but there are plenty starting to appear in places without significant or any subsidies.
The reasons for the fall last year didn't have anything to do with supply constraints, unless you count not being able to live up to irrational market expectations as supply constraints. Yes, there's plenty of room for execution risk here. But (and here I am being a groupie) the whole point is that Elon & Co have been meeting and exceeding every expectation in this area for about 5 years.
Yes, I'm long, and somewhat longer today...�
1/1/2015
guest My bet is with a location in Nevada not far from Fremont with a direct rail connection. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has indicated that Tesla will be building additional automobile and battery factories within four years. Those states that are protectionist on the dealership issue may be wise to reconsider, especially if provided a strong hint by not being awarded the first Gigafactory�
1/1/2015
guest Brysondad,
I tried to discuss the role of Elon Musk with Tesla on an earlier Google Hangout, and I'm afraid my remarks might have been interpreted as saying that Elon Musk wasn't important. That's not the case. However, while I don't have inside information at all, I think that Mr. Musk has hired quite a few very capable people to work diligently at Tesla on an every day basis. I see this in the interviews given by Tesla employees of various levels. I see this in the written words by many Tesla engineers and engineering managers. I see this in the resumes of the people that work there. Of course Mr. Musk is still extremely instrumental and Tesla is would not have achieved to this point at this time without him. But on a day by day basis, when nothing big needs to be decided, then no, it is not as crucial. Remember, Mr. Jobs also split time with Pixar and I suspect Mr. Jobs was far more involved at a number of levels at Apple, almost to a detrimental level.
1) The Chinese economy has hardly crashed. Further, the absolute numbers that Tesla wants to sell in China is very small in the context of the overall market. Given where Tesla is right now in production levels, it won't take many sales as a percentage of the overall luxury sedan market in China for Tesla to do quite well. Do you have information that switching from Kingston Chang to Veronica Wu was all that disruptive? Wasn't she already Mr. Chang's boss? It still doesn't follow that this change had anything to do with any soft demand issues.
2) Model X is definitely a risk on a number of levels. However, the pre-order levels are already quite high and these pre-orders were executed with the knowledge of the prototype versions with the falcon door.
3) Given that the cells come from Osaka, Japan right now, you are complaining about them coming from as far away as Texas? Further, the public wants Tesla to be able to sell direct so over time, Tesla is likely to be the winner here.
4) You have no real data about demand other than the fact that customer deposits have been increasing and that Tesla is still production constrained. We will only get a real sense of demand when Tesla is no longer production constrained, which might not come to pass until years after Gen 3. Therefore, this idea that Tesla has not demonstrated demand is nonsensical on the very face of it. Further, we do not know to what extent the subsidies in the U.S. have on buying. Maybe all it does is delay the purchases a bit as people need more cash to buy a Model S. Also, the tax credits in many states are not changing yet, and certainly I bought without a subsidy in my state. The federal tax credit will take quite some time before that is an issue.
5) the first gigafactory is actually not big enough. Panasonic is likely still at full tilt providing cells even when the gigafactory is at full nameplate capacity.�
1/1/2015
guest I've been sitting quietly on the sidelines looking at the past Brysondad's posts, but I think I'll comment now. While I do accept the opposite view and I do think that sometimes we all get carried away when money is falling from the skies and we are pissing champagne a majority of your posts are too troll-like (don't take it as an insult). I say this because a lot of it is pretty much unsubstantiated or structured poorly. Why are you talking about the ability to live 100 times? It makes no sense in the context. Yes, times were tough because the company was at a totally different stage and were coming off a significant amount of failures that required massive overhauls-- which is why he needed to dump a significant amount of resources into both companies. We're past that point and are in ramp up mode where scaling while maintaining quality are important. Both of which the management has acknowledged.
I think a lot of the positive catalyst folks aren't misguided. Let's take your points that you mention. I'm actually one of the few people that doesn't give Elon ALL the credit. You do realize that the company's leader is only as good as his team. That's what he spent his time building. Yes his health is a risk, but this isn't a Steve Jobs scenario. Like DaveT said, he is well aware of this and I'm pretty sure he has a succession plan. It's not a coincidence JB has been accompanying him to events. He's not stupid, he knows it's a lot of work and his delegation skills have improved substantially over time. This is always a risk with any company and it's something that can't be diversified away. Elon AND team are amazing individuals with the chops proven to run a company.
1. China demand. While I am skeptical of the Chinese and some anecdotal stories aren't enough, there's reality that needs to be looked at. Even if the Chinese economy crashed the vast majority of wealthy aren't affected. Income inequality just spikes. I know this for a fact as I know friends in China who are considered the ultra wealthy and were more than happy to drop $400K on a S class. They've seen and driven the Model S here and the product speaks for itself. Also in Hong Kong, there are Roadster owners that were interviewed who clearly want the Model S. It's also the law of large numbers. As you mentioned Tesla is supply constrained so even if Chinese demand was pent up it wouldn't be the worst thing. It's not even speculation. It's going to do well in China, just based on the fact that it has so many wealthy people in it. Google Whenzhou province and you'll see price and charging won't be an issue. It's also in China's best interest to promote green cars. The ultra rich won't be buying Kandi's. I guarantee it and are going to get tired of being ripped off by German car brands-- now that it's out there (they'll still buy them don't get me wrong, but a lot of people will be converting).
Okay, so the GM left? big deal Veronica Wu has been the face of Tesla China anyway. Just because one person leaves doesn't mean that the entire organization breaks down. Peter Rawlinson left Tesla and where are we now?
2. Model X, we know about schedule risk, but we also know there's huge demand. First off, it's not a Gull Wing door. It has been popular on cars, but just on cars that are out of reach and the main reason why it wasn't popular was because of parking. Do you really think that Tesla engineers didn't think of this? Go look at the animation and even the initial reveal of the prototype, the problems are stated. The door has a dual hinge system so it can open unobstructed next to a parked car. Why are you talking about Model S when you are talking about the Falcon Wing? Why would you get to "play" with a prototype? Do other auto manufacturers let you sit in concept cars?
3. Funding for the Gigafactory is complete. This is undisputed, it's just a matter of location selection and seeing plans come to fruition. Why would other states retaliate? If Tesla makes cars it generates sales revenue. If everybody thought like this, then other states should retaliate with other manufacturers picking and closing plants in certain states. Look up Hyundai, Volkswagon, and other manufacturing plants. I get your logic, but it's just flat out wrong.
4. This is a joke right?
5. Supply chain management is one aspect of it, but controlling growth and maintaining quality is more important. The iPhone 1 wasn't exactly high volume, it took time for suppliers to adapt. That and a majority of parts were being sourced from other manufacturers. The Gigafactory is preparation for the 500k volume car. In the near term this shouldn't affect much except potential for more margins on the existing product. The build it myself plan isn't brute force. It makes sense logistically. You need to piece everything together. It's a car with a significant amount of IP that needs to be protected and managed for safety reasons. Being unable to meet demand killed a lot of growth stories? Can you cite some examples. Being able to meet demand without quality control killed a lot of growth stories. Piss poor management killed a lot of growth stories.�
1/1/2015
guest Tesla Motors posted for an addition to their team today (Architect for Gigafactory):
Careers | Tesla Motors
Long Tesla�
1/1/2015
guest Engish.Eastday article: Tesla plans charging network in China�
1/1/2015
guest While he's the CEO at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is President and COO and runs the company on a day to day basis. Tesla doesn't list a "President" position at all.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, I'm fairly happy with how TSLA behaved near 200, so I went ahead and actually bought back the $500 leg of the 300-500 and 400-500 call spreads I've been buying on the way down. Booked 40% profit on the 500s, though of course this is costing me some cash to do for now.�
1/1/2015
guest Main street likes TSLA under $200. Rally!�
1/1/2015
guest So you're currently open long on the $300s and $400? What expiration did you use�
1/1/2015
guest Congratulations to anyone who caught the dip under $200 and bought today. I could not keep a close eye on the market today so placed buy orders at $198 (just missed), 194 and 188 at about 10am. So, I basically missed on this opportunity.�
1/1/2015
guest I am. These are Jan 2016s, as late as I could get. I actually still have 3 of the 12 $500s I wrote, I could only buy back 9 of them before hitting my margin limit, and couldn't transfer in cash to cover it in time. If Tesla is at the same level on Monday or whenever the cash gets into the account, I'll probably end up buying the other 3 back.
I will probably sell 500 calls again later once we go back up a bit. I didn't intend to buy 300s or 400s all by themselves, because there's just so much premium on them, that's why I wrote the 500s at the same time.
Anyway, I sold some stock and LEAPs when we were around $250 to fund the purchase of these spreads, and got myself completely out of margin debit at the time, though now I'm back into it (but only about 10% I think of my total surplus purchasing power), so I'm feeling pretty good about this all. The idea was to increase my leverage a bit, while still aiming at my target price, which is $500 in a couple years. That's roughly the point at which I would become a Teslanaire. I've half considered selling *all* stock and replacing it with calls/spreads, but I'm a bit wary of the idea. Largely because I don't want to be in the tippy top tax bracket for 2014...�
1/1/2015
guest In the department of stopped clocks being right twice a day, I bought back a covered call (Jun 230) at ~199.5 this afternoon. My accidental brilliance may prove ephemeral if TSLA continues down farther. I'm actually expecting it to continue sliding until the unveiling of the production Model X or some other substantive catalyst. I have also bought LEAPs on the way down at 234 and 218. I'll keep buying in gradually and go all in (as far as I go with TSLA anyway) if it gets below $190.�
1/1/2015
guest thanks- you might have noticed- the bots typically test-drive the price down early in the morning. usually a good time to trade on the low side for the day on those other 3 buy backs (assuming we're not just going lower anyway of course)�
1/1/2015
guest Whew, we crushed the NASDAQ today. Nice! So in relative terms, we just caught up with some of yesterday's losses.�
1/1/2015
guest Based on that statement, I infer that TSLA at $30 last year was the non-obvious play, then? It seemed pretty obvious to us groupthinkers back at the time, though. Wonder what kind of yacht I would have right now if I had shorted TSLA at $30? Well, I guess I wouldn't have had to pay so much in taxes this year. I don't see how perpetual negativity and doubt is any more objective than unbridled optimism.�
1/1/2015
guest SS Minnow�
1/1/2015
guest Before or after it sank?�
1/1/2015
guest Brysondad,
As to Elon being involved with Tesla. I keep a list of risk factors, there's about ten of them on it, and this is a top 3 item for me. Elon has said he will stay until Gen III is up and running. I've heard him say it several times in several contexts. Having watched him and Tesla extremely closely the past two years, I've learned to recognize a tone and phrasing Elon will use that has a striking track record of follow through. There are other items he will discuss where you can see he's leaving some ambiguity, and sounds less committed, and there are a couple of items we've seen Elon/Tesla not follow through. So Elon, of course, does not speak "gospel", but he leaves his strongest language and tone for items he is going to follow through. I say this based on observing past words and deeds. I have a very high confidence level he is stone cold committed to staying at Tesla through a successful launch of Gen III.
All that said, there's a considerable possibility Elon leaves Tesla 2018 or thereafter for SpaceX. I get the sense he'd pick SpaceX over Tesla, and any investor is wise to account for this possibility. of course, something could happen to Elon before 2018. As mentioned he'd 42, which helps, but it is a risk factor. I'm not an actuary, but my gut says under 3% (accounting for all the people that really don't want to see Tesla succeed).
Finally as to splitting time between SpaceX and Tesla, over the past two years Elon consistently said 50/50 split of his time between the two. I saw him recently asked again about how he divides his time, I believe it was his Q&A in Norway. He said it's been more like 60 or 70% Tesla of late (I believe he said the past year). yes, I did see the 60 minutes piece where they described 3 days at SpaceX headquarters and 2 days at Tesla HQ. That may be so, but that does not mean he's dividing his time that way... clearly he does not need to physically be at Tesla to work on it. And, of course, 60 minutes may have gotten it wrong or oversimplified it... they also said he spends his weekends with this kids. I doubt there's more than a dozen days a year that Elon doesn't put some hours into these companies, let alone every Saturday and Sunday.
as to your 5 items, I'll just add some thoughts on the first 2, you've had plenty of replies on these.
1. China demand. I highly recommend this thread on TMC specifically on the topic, China Market situation and outlook
read through it, pose this question to them. while anyone saying anything about demand in China has a somewhat speculative nature, my recollection of that thread was a level of digging and collecting information for their speculation unlike anything else I've seen on the web. while these may not be all verifiable sources, off the top of my head, I recall, 1) reports of store visits in Beijing and observing store traffic 2) feedback from Beijing store employees on orders (of course, again, taking poster's word), 3) monitoring and links to popular Chinese websites, message boards, 4) self-reporting of placement of orders, 4) links to articles, comments about positive reception of Tesla's pricing strategy, 5) descriptions of the stunning praise of at least one apparently very influential high tech leader.
add to this the fact that the Mercedes S class sold over 30K units/year in China at a starting cost of $200,000 vs. $120,000 for the Model S, and while not a certainty, I think a very strong showing in China is more than blind speculation.
2) Model X, timeline, falcon wing doors: timeline... Tesla slipped by about 2 months on the Model S. while ultimately not making any difference, at the time this was watched with much scrutiny. there was some justification for this... Tesla had to ramp up without running out of cash. Model X is a completely different story. Slipping a couple of months will mean nothing to the ultimate success of the company as they are not in jeopardy of running out of cash. As to the year or so delay we've already seen in the Model X. Why not? they are supply constrained on the Model S, why not take one's time ensuring the best execution on product number two when doing so will have 0 impact on sales; that is, if there's only supply to deliver 35K Model S/X this year, 35K Model S or 20K Model S/15K Model X has no benefit, but sacrifices the opportunity to make the Model X that much better.
there is some risk on execution with the Model X. it's quite important to deliver a car as winning as the Model S in order to solidify brand image and sales. it's been about 2 years since the prototype was revealed, and we know there are some substantial changes being made... we just don't know what they are. this could be a positive, but, of course, what Tesla sees as improvements carries some risk of not matching overall consumer sentiment. we're likely to see something in the next 4 months or so, and I do see it as a bit of a risk. while I'm confident the performance will be there, style is subjective, and I don't take for granted that they nail this one.
as to Falcon wing doors. added complexity, yes. just for sizzle like the door handles, no. Tesla has repeatedly said the very practical reason for the falcon wing doors, to allow markedly better access to back rows, including the ability to stand up in the back of the car. I've not had to deal with putting kids in their car seats, but apparently it's a pain in most vehicles. the Falcon wing doors have a functional purpose. it's also worth mentioning, that they are designed to actually lesson the amount of space you need on either side of the car to get in and out. IIRC, if you can get your body between your car and the one parked beside you that is sufficient room for the doors to open.�
1/1/2015
guest Interesting debate that got stirred up!
I think there's a myth that most everyone here is recklessly enthusiastic, buying options, or both.
It's untrue. Plenty of people here are long-term investors.
TSLA is not a stock for those with no risk tolerance! I've suggested on many occasions that people NOT bet the whole farm on TSLA.
Keeping cash on hand for emergencies and a core of index funds in a retirement account is key to sleeping at night while making risky investments. Anyone investing in individual shares of a relatively new company should make sure they don't lose everything if the company goes bust!�
1/1/2015
guest after, definitely after
the only surviving shorts on that yacht were on Ginger�
1/1/2015
guest I like the more wholesome MaryAnne. :biggrin:�
1/1/2015
guest Sure, but the "Professor" could make anything out of Bamboo and Coconuts
We are all showing our ages here�
1/1/2015
guest Professor was original Elon Musk. No electricity but they put on shows/had a record player and lighting!�
1/1/2015
guest Nice girl. She's all yours. Ginger is mine.�
1/1/2015
guest What ever made you guys think Maryanne was nice and wholesome? Ba hahahaha�
1/1/2015
guest Don't rain on my parade!:biggrin: Had a crush on her since I was 10. That was several years ago!�
1/1/2015
guest We've been talking about risk factors and I am curious about the earthquake risks at the Fremont factory. Is anyone here knowledgeable enough to comment on steps taken by Tesla to reduce potential earthquake damage? I suspect the east bay is not as bad off as the west side of the bay, due to the location of the San Adreas Fault, but I'd like to learn more.
Wondering what Ginger and MaryAnn would think about this worrysome topic�
1/1/2015
guest I will find the link when I have some time, but I examined the USGS soil maps of Fremont and compared them to the location of the Tesla Factory. I believe that the factory is built on a section of land that is less susceptible to earthquake damage.�
1/1/2015
guest The San Andreas Fault specifically isn't the primary risk factor. The Hayward Fault is a parallel fault which runs along the base of the East Bay hills a mile or two east of the Fremont factory. According the the USGS, there is a 31% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater on the Hayward Fault in the next 30 years. There is a 21% chance of such an earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. Basically everything in the Bay Area is designed for the eventuality of a major earthquake. When you see news reports of major earthquakes, they show what received major damage but not the 99% of buildings which are basically fine. In the event of a major earthquake, the factory might be expected to have superficial damage like broken glass etc. There is a good chance of extended power outage ( downtown San Francisco lost power for 3 days after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake) and they would probably have to inspect factory facilities, check robot alignment before ramping back up to full production.�
1/1/2015
guest
Yes, standing to put kids into the car seats will be awesome...my wife doesn't care much about new technology and cool cars like me but when she saw that she told me to put our deposit down on the X. I think there will be a lot of moms getting the X solely because of that...it is a real pain to be putting 1 or 2 kids in car seats over and over...it is something moms have just accepted as part of driving with kids and as a result many moms won't drive places with kids as much as they otherwise would because of this obstacle...especially pregnant moms...but I think this simple change the falcon doors allow for will be revolutionary for housewives who otherwise are buying other very expensive SUVs.
safety of Model X will also be huge...what dad wants their wife and kids to drive in anything but the safest SUV out there? Not me...as much as I love my S, I actually make my wife use the S during the week instead of our SUV because of the safety concern. I can't wait for the X.�
1/1/2015
guest A friend of mine recently thew out his back from pulling his kid out of a child seat. Not that this is impossible to do in the X, but I think he'd agree if he hadn't been leaning in at such an awkward angle, he would have been fine.�
1/1/2015
guest I came home from Palm Sunday at my little church today, and I was reading about all the crap going down in the Ukraine and getting bummed out. Then I thought, man I hope Tesla changes the world so that oil money and the (often evil) men behind it are no longer able to hold the world hostage and cause so much suffering. I mean I know that's not the sole cause of human suffering but it has been at the root of an outsized share of it in the last century.
Then I checked out this video and kind of felt better.
I hope TSLA does well, but today I remembered that much more than that, I hope Tesla Motors does well. For us all.�
1/1/2015
guest wow that video was amazing�
1/1/2015
guest Just funded my first IRA, seems like as good a day as any to buy tsla shares in it. Lets go up from here now though, k?�
1/1/2015
guest Anyone thinking of buying options for next week when the first deliveries in China are scheduled? It seems like that would be a good time for Tesla to issue guidance ahead of earnings. Not so many rumors floating around though but even now might not be a bad time to gamble on a turn-around next week.�
1/1/2015
guest Back almost to the same price as the previous ATH over 5 months ago.�
1/1/2015
guest Now that you're back home, how was your 5 month ModS test drive?
- exhilarating from the back seat I can say�
1/1/2015
guest This price drop is bordering on ridiculous now. It feels like when we got to 120 back in November where it just didn't make any sense anymore. I'm hoping that this is the true bottom now that we have touched the old resistance point of 194.�
1/1/2015
guest The $194 was where I certainly think we would get our strongest resistance. If it drops below that...who knows. Bought some shares at 197. My LEAPS are really hurting. But I am hopeful they will have time to rebound.�
1/1/2015
guest Yea, my entire TSLA portfolio is in TSLA deep OTM Jan 2015. Without a rebound in the next few months, the reverse Tsunami of hurt will wash me away. There's certainly time the way TSLA seems to bounce, but it's unnerving.�
1/1/2015
guest i keep expecting my stock market "emotional maturity" to develop. Investing in TSLA hasn't helped. Best of luck to everyone.�
1/1/2015
guest Loading up options (and rolled up from really deep ITM) the last weeks. Bought jan16 200 Call for $50, and jan16 300 Call for $23 today, I think this is cheap. Buying more if it keeps going down. I'm buying at my new margin account now. However I'm not quite sure I understand how the margin at IB is working. I have used 49k at margin, and still have 60k to use according to my account summary, and a buying power of 400k...???? But my hole account at IB is only worth $390 today, mostly TSLA and some solar. I'm thinking of liquidating my STL (oil shares) in Norway, but I'm waiting for the dividend to be paid out. Do any of you know if I may transfer my STL shares from Oslo B�rs to IB, for better covering up my margin accout, without selling any TSLA, if Putin starts the world warIII?�
1/1/2015
guest My sun hat is off to you, brave soul.
There is facility in IB to do ACAT, that is share transfer from other broker to IB. It is under account management. It is easy to use. IB is easy to work with but some other brokers make it more difficult to move shares around. It might be that your other broker does not do ACAT, that happened to me with one of my accounts, so that transfer took some phone calls and emails as the broker was dragging their feet not letting me go.�
1/1/2015
guest Do you have any special reason for waiting with liquidating STL until the dividend? The dividend payment will be reflected in the stock price, so all else being equal there is no reason to wait except for tax reasons - but seeing as you're liquidating, you'll get hit with full taxation regardless.
Best of luck on your options plays, you certainly don't seem like you're easily spooked if you're going deep OTM at this point.�
1/1/2015
guest If Wenche does direct shares transfer from one account to another, there is no need to sell STL unless that is the intention.
It just occurred to me (my slow thinking day) what STL is, very ironic hedge for TSLA. Might be an idea to hold both in the same account to reduce % margin. :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest It seems that every article I read mentions that demand has peaked. As if it is not up for discussion and supported by facts. Recently it even seems that they are leaving off the "in the United States" part of the argument and just stating it as if general demand for the Model S is peaked. None of the articles mention the fact that Tesla is currently readying a second production line or the fact that per The Goldman Sachs note (and confirmed through DaveT's Investor relation contact) Tesla is currently producing near 700 cars per week. that puts them very near where they need to be to hit their guidance for the full year. Considering the second production line will be coming online in Q3 and Q4 They will either have to raise guidance or will just deliver way over guidance.
It is insane that anyone thinks US sales have peaked ... if you want to argue that the only real argument is "have US sales peaked with no traditional advertising" ... I also believe Tesla said they were not opening up many sales locations as they could open because they dont have the production to meet it. If someone remembers where they said that or if they didn't please let me know/correct me.
I have many options that are blood red right now but I believe since most of this was caused by FUD about demand that when they continue to exceed guidance and revise it upwards it will reverse itself just as fast.�
1/1/2015
guest Our emotional IQ flip flops and at and amazing rate. Trust me, nothing material has changed. There is an extraordinary volume of positive catalysts coming, forthwith.�
1/1/2015
guest OK....I'm waiting:wink:�
1/1/2015
guest I wanted to post a chart in the other thread but my heart isn't quite up to it. I looked at my chart and everything about TSLA is broken and it's a runaway train staying in the downtrend. In a way, I feel like the post Q3 drop wasn't as bad as this. I'm actually expecting to see 185 or lower tomorrow and for 100% of my Q4 gains to vanish. I'm actually at a loss for words about this. Good luck tomorrow everyone.�
1/1/2015
guest Let us hope in this case that TSLA does not follow a technical chart. I will continue to buy small amounts on the way down if your analysis is correct to dollar cost average for what we all hope will be the next movement upward.
EDIT: I am placing orders for ATM calls (200) for May 9th, Sept and Jan15. I was going to buy more shares instead but I think it is about time for some positive movement, despite what tech/chart analysis has to say.
(Of course no 'weeklies as the market could go either way in the very short term. I may be crazy, but not THAT crazy :wink
Good luck all.
EDIT 10AM: Well, that strategy in the short term (since market open when the orders were filled) is looking bad! And I am crazy as the May 9th calls are considered 'weeklies'.....�
1/1/2015
guest I got a buy order in @187 for common stock. Last gap that would need to be filled.�
1/1/2015
guest TSLA is now worth less than it was just over 6 months ago. I don't think that's happened in a very long time aside from the flash crash when Rawlinson left.�
1/1/2015
guest I hope the shorts think they can predict TSLA, because I had that some thought at the $40/share level last year and then it went so crazy after Q1 earnings 2013 that I have never been able to predict it since then.�
1/1/2015
guest I didnt think we'd see 190. If it keeps dropping I might have to scrounge up some money to buy more before Q1 earnings.�
1/1/2015
guest ...
�
1/1/2015
guest I'm long some for a bounce. Might be out here depending on how this thing hold. Still a lot of pressure on it.�
1/1/2015
guest I feel this drop is unwarranted and driven by tax selling. The FUD about falling demand is flat out wrong. Feels like early Q1 last year all over again.
I booked some significant option profits after the Detroit motor show preannouncement and Q1 earnings call. I just put a quarter of those profits back in to June 210 calls at $13, anticipating a correction up into and after earnings.
My long term stock position initiated 2 years ago remains untouched.�
1/1/2015
guest
I felt the rise from 190 to 260 was unwarranted.
I'm still long for the moment though but keeping it tight.�
1/1/2015
guest What really matters for me is the duration we spend at the depressed price. My Jan 2015 300s are down 60%. If the stock recovers in 2-3 months, I'm fine. If it recovers in 9 months, it's a complete loss.�
1/1/2015
guest When do you buy Jan 15 300s?�
1/1/2015
guest
Well - my buy order executed. Let's see what happens!�
1/1/2015
guest Late March, the stock was about $220. But by the time the stock recovers, it'll have to recover significantly beyond that for me to break even.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry to hear that. Buying far out of the money options is a hard game to play at anytime because they are so expensive.�
1/1/2015
guest While I am not happy about it....YOU did call it!�
1/1/2015
guest Found this Forbes article from November 19, 2013 warning us not to "catch a falling knife", checkout the numbers, it's fell $14 to $122 that day, down from it's all time high of $194.50 (at the time). We are only a bit below that now, the toughest part is watching profit disappear, and not selling.
Tesla: Don't Try And Catch A Falling Knife - Forbes�
1/1/2015
guest this latest mid-day recovery does bring back to mind the behavior of the stock when it was in the 120's (after q3 and f*res).�
1/1/2015
guest Days like this I just close my eyes and picture myself driving my future gen 3�
1/1/2015
guest I made two option purchases this am. The first is apr 195, the second one, I feel really good about was a June 190 when the stock was 187. I forced myself to buy because my gut said sell. I hope it was the right move.�
1/1/2015
guest I�m going to put a note on my calendar to see if I can say that in 2 years from now; I started my long term (>10 years) position a few months ago.�
1/1/2015
guest My hypothesis for the selloff:
As we approach the one year anniversary of last year's Q1 blowout (and have already passed the one year anniversary of the beginning of the run-up) we may be seeing a new wave of profit-taking from investors taking advantage of the long-term capital gains tax rate.�
1/1/2015
guest Today's market action makes me feel like I'm stuck at an T intersection trying to merge. Everything is whizzing by in either direction and I have no idea how much of a risk I'm taking if I try to get in. Meanwhile, everyone behind me (My LEAPS/stock) are getting very mad.�
1/1/2015
guest Bought Jan16 200 call for $45 and jan16 250 call for $30, today. Will continue to buy, if it goes down more. I look at Tesla in January 2016+, and see a bright future. Nothing has changed
As I am up in the mountains of Norway, I don't have the tools here to fund anything at the moment. Do you know of any closed days at Nasdaq during Easter holidays?�
1/1/2015
guest
The market is closed on Friday.
I have no doubt that TSLA will be higher in the future as well. Just want to point out that J16 LEAPS will not stop you from losing all of your money if you have bad luck.
E.g. TSLA can go to $400 by early next year and then we hit a recession and it drops to $120 by Jan. 2016. Even if you bought deep ITM 2016 LEAPS, you would still get wiped out under my scenario.
That's why it is better to buy shares than options. Options are good if you have a bullet proof strategy that consists of using various expirations, creating delayed construct bull call spreads, buying when IV is low and selling when IV is high, etc. Even then you can still get wiped out using options.
I think that options are too risky for most people to invest in. Just look at how your options performed in this epic bull market, and now consider how they will do if we get choppy markets going forward... (This post is not aimed at you directly Wenche�
1/1/2015
guest Options are a strange beast. Did very well in Jan/Feb with them (way better than even stock) and have had a rough 6 weeks with them since. I still plan on using LEAPS and stocks with an occaisional foray into shorter term options. I have limited short term to 5% of my holdings since it is possible to lose an entire position if you guess wrong. I don't think LEAPS are a bad way to substitute for some stock holding though if you are looking for leverage and not afraid of the greater risk/reward ratio that they give you versus stock.�
1/1/2015
guest Thank you for replying Sleepy
I still have my core stock holding of 1109 TSLA, that is what I could buy for nok 200k (usd 32k) back 16 months ago. A Norwegian shorter, spread at lot of FUD, and let me think I could get the stocks even cheaper, but I did not. I started with options (with no experience), funded another $51k, and bought mostly deep in the money options, far out. I have rolled some, traded some, and I will roll out to jan17, in November, or when possible. I have no stop loss, and my hedging against the world war III, would be my Statoil stocks. I believe in Tesla and Elon Musk, and will go all the way to TSLA $400. I still hold my core position , by the way :smile:�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. I also made the mistake with what I call mid term, 3-9 month options. I bought a bunch of Aprils of almost everything in January and February. However I didn't keep them as mid term as the time for closer. Because they were down I liked the leverage effect and kept the positions thinking that the recovery will come tomorrow. Well tomorrow never came, at least the recovery never came. The tomorrow's did as each tomorrow ate further and further into the value of the options.
I just talked to my account today and he said "We should see about sending in some extra for your quarterlies for the gains you had in January and February." Sadly I replied "I don't think that is necessary right now."
I'm still up YTD but no where near where I was at earlier. My cost bias is that expires in two days is pretty darn disgusting to say the least. And I've rolled three of the most valuable positions I had for April down and out to September. All three of those positions were roughly 75% losses.
When I look back I really messed up because in February when I cashed out a portion of my largest account, which is in optionshouse, that cash value was 2x that entire account value right now. Then I started catching the knives.�
1/1/2015
guest Don't feel bad, I think we have all caught the knives lately. My only savior today was the purchase of stock at $188.50 and sold at 194.50. Cashed out quick in a retirement account so no bad effects on gains. Helped offset the rest of the day being down, but still turned out to be another negative day. Started out April playing dips and selling on the rise doing quite well, but lately the rises have been short coming!�
1/1/2015
guest Are Tesla Tuesdays back?�
1/1/2015
guest Good tech earnings from Yahoo and Intel plus good China GDP numbers should mean an up day tomorrow.�
1/1/2015
guest Ah yes ... my portfolio yesterday was worth about 33% of what it was in February. Having a large portion of it in TSLA LEAPs and CSIQ LEAPs didn't help :/ I've restructured it a few weeks back moving more into stock and lower strike options, but still the bleeding continues. I had ca 30% of the portfolio in cash when I cashed out with TSLA around $250 from most short term options, but got a bit cocky and gambled a bit more than I should have losing a grand here, a grand there ... Anyway, mostly moved off short term options when TSLA was in $230-240 range so recovery is definitely a possibility, but for example those $400 LEAPs for 2015 were probably a bad idea (worth about 25% of what their cost basis is). Oh well, we are also down ca $70 from peak. Going back up in the next couple of months would make the cuts on my hands worthwhile though�
1/1/2015
guest Great attitude, Mario.�
1/1/2015
guest Some information released yesterday by BMW on sales of i3:
Their factory in Leipzig ramped up production from 70 to 100 vehicles a day.
Member of the board of management Harald Kr�ger (Production) said �Bloomberg� that since beginning of this year more than 5.000 i3 have been produced.
The current production rate translates to about 20,000 vehicles for the full year, almost twice as much as BMW�s initial sales forecast.
electrive.net Denza, BMW, Japan, Nissan, Saleen, Chevrolet.
link in english:
BMW Lifts i3 Electric Car Production 43% on Higher Demand - Bloomberg
At least BMW sees some demand for EVs�
1/1/2015
guest For the sake of my April 210's I hope today we get news of gigafactory partner announcement, Q1 delivery exceeded announcement and was near xxxx, China demand is huge announcement. That should make them green again.�
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