Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 15

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep, I sold my 3/22 240 Calls at $20.20, when we had that push over $255. They were intended as my giga-factory play, but I'll take a 4-bagger on options I bought last week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Watch for him to tweet after the close that he "doubled down" again at 258 :rolleyes:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Been a long term holder of ordinary stock for 12 months

    last week reading all the war stories purchased my first bunch of March 15 and jan 16 calls

    i do like these options !
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    man what a ride...never thought any stock jump like tesla... giga factory cost in billions and results will start showing up in 2017 onwards but stock market never work on logic...just like FB bought 19B toy...go figure
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, even more pissed I didn't buy those March 250s at 2.65 I was looking at the other day, or the weekly 230s I was considering. Sigh. Knew there was potential for something big this week too, as we all did. Blech.

    Not that I'm not doing fine today anyway. I think I'm up more than I would have been had I held just stock (did stock replacement during the 120-140 range mostly to fix my margin exposure at the time), and had we held the daily highs or been just a bit closer to them I would have had an actual six figure day. Pretty good deal for someone who started with a five-figure initial investment. Halfway to Teslanaire :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congrats FANGO. It was a respectable five figure day for me, but I blundered a bit over the past year and paid for my cold feet post Q3.

    The centrepiece of my day were these ill-fated 07-Mar 250's I had bought for no apparent reason. I had originally intended them as some off in the weeds Gigafactory play, watched them cruise down to like $0.65/contract and offloaded them for an average of $10.00 today. Weird way to net a ten bagger, but I'm not complaining. They paid for a what has turned into a fairly extravagant vacation at the moment.

    I'm also pretty happy that I am heavily abusing the tax free account the Canadian government issued. I am now doing most of my investing in that account, tax free!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Noticed a bit too late that Jan '16 420s were selling for 20 bucks just now, up from 12 yesterday. Tried to get an order in but it didn't execute. I figured I'd be okay with getting called on a few hundred shares at that price, then buying back the LEAPs if the stock drops or if IV drops after this crazy day.

    Might be a good thing for open tomorrow if we can hold this range. Or maybe I'll wait for gigafactory information or something.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon has been posting SpaceX stuff so I doubt Giga factory announcement today. I think he comes back up to the Bay Area on wednesday so maybe tomorrow
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bought some lotto ticket weeklies right at close. T'was a good day, I can afford to gamble some more.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I have never used twitter hash tag, but maybe we should start #kissesforkasses

    :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Never had a '20 bagger'. Got a 19.9 today. Bought Feb230 calls Friday for $1. Sold today for $20. Decided to hold on to the last one just to see. Good day for all of us. Obligatory toast....raising my glass to you all!!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was really conservative with my weeklies this week. Bought everything in the money. Congrats to all on a beautiful day. I think tomorrow is going to be nice too with the margin calls the shorts will be getting tonight. And other announcements to come. Exciting times.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure how I feel right now. I bought 350 shares of Tesla at 23 dollars back in the day. It was all I could afford as I am not super wealthy like a lot on these forums. I make above average pay as do my wife so I guess I can figure I am upper-middle class or whatever.

    Anyway my point is I told myself I would sell at 200 so I could buy the Tesla car and put some money into paying off my house an taking a trip. Well, I did that. I am happy that I got almost 10 times profit from my investment, but disappointed I didn't wait. I guess its too little too late, but I felt I should share my frustration on this board. With 350 shares its not exactly like its a huge deal... I mean thats a 20k difference which is big to me. I guess I should be happy I got so much crazy profit by itself, but man today makes me feel bad for not waiting that extra two weeks. :(

    I guess I will just have to enjoy my Tesla in three months.

    First world problems.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now imagine how you're gonna feel over the next year (and the next decade) if you think the stock price is going to be higher. You might want to think about getting back in on a dip.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1
    I already regret selling my original shares I bought in the 20s & 30s. Every share I buy now I am keeping for the next decade no matter what!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat

    I know that frustration, but in a slightly different scenario. Back at the height of the dot-com boom, around 1999/2000 I had some shares in a tech company that had grown tremendously in the space of a few years. I sold about 1/4 of my holdings to pay for a large purchase, and kept the rest, hoping that the share price would go up even more.

    The market tanked, and the stock plunged to a fraction of its value, never to recover. To this day I regret not having made a plan for an exit strategy, or at least some kind of milestone for considering cashing out.

    Losing out on 20k is painful, but you reached your goal and will own a really cool Model S as a result. I never set a goal and was left flat-footed and only able to afford a Honda Civic!

    I like MikeC's recommendation. Having reached the initial goal doesn't mean you can't set a new goal with a new buy-in.

    If you think the stock will go up even more, buy some shares for the long haul.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Mod Note: Thread title amended. It was pointed out that on many devices only the first words of the thread are displayed so having the words "Social Chat" at the end of the title causes members not to know whether it's the short term price thread or the short term chat thread. I'm happy to make that requested change.

    Carry on.

    :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a similar story to AntiCitizen13.7, except I had "founders shares" in a well known .com that had recently IPO'd at $17/share, and rose to $42/share within a month, my cost basis was pennies/share, needless to say, on paper the shares where worth over $650K, this was it, I was going to be set for life, right? Not so much, Founders IPO shares have lots of restrictions on them, couldn't be sold for a year.. The .com bubble occurred in 2 months, in a year the shares where worth less than $2. So much for retiring at 40, didn't happen. Lesson: cashing out with a substantial profit is never bad, because you never know what can happen with the US /Global economy to really kill your paper profits

    Note: the company was eventually taken private, the remaining shareholders received $1.55/share, so it never recovered.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for the kind words guys. Makes me feel better about it. I do feel good that I am supporting tesla through purchase too.. I'll try to jump back in at some point too.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I feel guilty today about having regret. My overall portfolio went up a bunch today with the TSLA spike (20% overall), but I can't help kicking myself for selling 20 March22 250 calls I had bought last week during a dip and sold yesterday for a decent profit (20%). I was proud at the time for not bring greedy (which killed me and many of you in the lead up to Q3 when TSLA went up to 175 before earnings and I didn't sell or hedge any of it). Those March22 calls would have been 6 baggers today if I had held and I am stupidly not appreciating the overall huge spike I did have and instead am somewhat lamenting what could have been. It's nice to read others' stories on here - good to keep in mind that taking some profit is never a bad idea even if it doesn't always work for the best.

    It is Unbelievable the bump to my portfolio Jan 14 and today! Luckily I had a mixture of long and short-term calls both times. Now I feel greedy and want more days like this but who knows when the next one could be. Could be this week, could be in 3 years. Luckily everyone on here is so good at pooling knowledge and predicting times when these huge short term plays may be possible. No way I could figure all this out on my own so thanks to everyone.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The car is a joy. Best purchase I've ever made. Enjoy the car and life. At your age, many of us were trying to figure out how to buy tubes for our bikes or bus passes! You're on a good track.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I realized today, especially after watching that video of the guy making $1 million dollars in a day after the North American Auto Show, is that there is a completely different skill set to day trading a short squeeze than what I'm much better at, which is more "standard" long investing and data analysis. I don't believe I played the short squeeze correctly as far as a day trader goes, but I'm very happy with my gains regardless. Thanks to all at TMC for being a great resource and sounding board. Thanks even to SeekingAlpha, where understanding the bear arguments made me feel much better about TSLA and where it is going.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm pretty excited about it. I was mostly just sharing my woes of selling too soon. But the stock could have gone either way in my limited opinion/experience. I said I would sell at 200 and I did so here we are. :)

    Excited about the process. Since I live in Texas I am beginning a long maze of hoops it sounds like just to own an innovative and AMERICAN car. Tesla makes me proud to be an American citizen. I am originally Canadian... I am proud of them too. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As well you should be... On both counts
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Link?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I cashed out the weeklies I had today, but I feel like I should be back in doing something for the gigafactory announcement. I just have no idea. I look at the call/put prices and being on either end of them doesn't speak to me.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So you must have some retirement planning going on and so have an opportunity to benefit from T's growth on a different time scale.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright, sounds good. So far here�s who we got paying for sleepyhead�s trip to the annual TSLA shareholder meeting (if he�s willing/wanting to go):

    RT Plane ticket - DaveT, AlMc
    Dinner - DaveT, AlMC
    one-night Hotel - DaveT
    Limo service - FluxCap
    AustinEV - pitch in for something

    The stock just needs to touch 280 intra-day at some point before March 31st.

    For those wondering what�s this about see here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 166
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking one of those limos with a pool in it. Or maybe it should be me driving Sleepy as his chauffeur in my Model S?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Very happy for you, @Bardlebee. Setting a goal like that and sticking to it is really disciplined and great. Enjoy your well-deserved car. I'm assuming you have factored in the taxes for the gains in your finances overall.

    With TSLA, I've been a weak long buying and selling at various levels to take good profits, the latest at $254. I believe in Tesla's (very bright) future, of course, but, I do believe that this market's getting frothy overall. I've been through a couple of boom-bust cycles (1999-2000, 2007-2008) but, escaped relatively unscathed thankfully - coincidentally, I was lucky to bail out in June '08 to buy my wife a Mini Cooper for her 30th birthday before the meltdown.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Certainly. I hired a CPA and financial planner when I made the decision to sell Tesla. All things in order there. :)

    Me and my wife are both network engineers. It is a fantastic field.

    @gg_got_a_tesla: I think I will be going into solar stocks in the future. Tesla may be too much per stock by the time I am ready to go back into stock investing.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I owe more than half of my Solar earnings to date to Sleepy and would highly value his perspective observations. To entice his attendance, I'll cover all drinks for Sleepy and any other guest he may find productively entertaining. If it's logistically easier, I'll put in $100 spending money for 'good times' to keep it creative! Thanks in advance if you can make it Sleepy and thanks for all your contributions.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just don't see how a short could stay in with the gigafactory imminent. $1 Billion invested (if true) by Panasonic & co, certainly solidifies what Tesla is doing -- and moves it well beyond just a car company. Also the Hong Kong EV announcement overnight is great news there for TSLA. Could be another couple of fun days...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm in on this for sure! I have learned so much about stock and option trading and made lots of money because of sleepyhead and this (and TCI) site.

    I'd like to rent a billboard in he city of the meeting for the time of the meeting saying thank you to Tesla and Elon from us owners for such an amazing breakthrough they have made with their car. It would show our thanks and also maybe give some extra positive publicity which never hurts. Not sure how much that would cost though - any ideas? Might need some helpers.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Speaking of annual shareholders meeting -- anyone know when it is? I plan to go.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Watching Olympic hockey must give you an identity crisis!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    When all else fails. I fall back on my Canadian roots. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Raised the average IQ of both countries? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OR a model S made for the Chinese market as it is said to have more of a chauffeured feel to it with a more 'upscale' rear seat :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You talking about the US vs Canada game where the loser keeps Bieber? ;) That's some high stakes game...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While I feel this is getting off-topic, its still funny.

    I feel that Canada sent Bieber as a social weapon to destroy America through media and subtlety. Genius.

    More on topic though, you guys think TSLA will get about 280 after the announcement?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's Wednesday already, any confirmation on when this gigafactory telecon is supposed to occur? I haven't seen anything.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shaping up to be another fun day. Halfway through pre-market, volume high, price rising, up over $10. Squeeze.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wild guess - the sky rocketing stock is causing a slight delay as better terms and easier financing are worked out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks a lot for your generosity guys. We are only 8% away from $280 and it looks like we have a fighting chance to hit that number.

    I don't know if any of you remember this post I made:

    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/23461-Articles-megaposts-by-sleepyhead/page24?p=557569&viewfull=1#post557569

    In the last sentence I wrote: I hold one share of TSLA as a hedge.

    And this is a perfect example of why I hold that one share of TSLA as a hedge, because in the end you have to be a shareholder (not option holder) to attend the shareholder meeting; at least that is my general belief so please correct me if I am wrong.

    There is a risk that we do not hit $280, and that will all depend on the amount of capital that Tesla needs to raise. I have seen analysts saying that the gigafactory could cost as little as $5b-$7b. If Panasonic and others put up $1b, and if there are no other big partners involved, then TSLA still needs to raise $5b. I would assume that they can use up to $2b (probably a little optimistic) in internally generated cash over the next 3 years, so that would require raising another $3b.

    If TSLA can sell $6m shares at $250 for $1.5b and do convertible bonds for up to $4b in shares for the other $1.5b, then we are talking about raising $3b while issuing only $10m shares, which is roughly a 7% dilution.

    If they can raise $3b with a 7% dilution then that would be awesome. But there could be a knee jerk reaction from the market, and/or a coordinated short attack, that knocks the shares down to the low $200s.

    This is a risk, but I am starting to believe that a small dilution like that will actually unlock a ton of shareholder value and we might see the stock continue going up.

    I am lost this morning. I don't know what to do: buy puts, buy calls, or sell calls?

    Still keeping most of my position unhedged. Before ER, I was unwinding my short March $240 - $260 calls, for like $2 a piece. After ER they were worth like $1.50, so I though I made a bad mistake. But a 10-bagger yesterday will quickly change that perception :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I felt the same way... I was worried that the typical sell on news would happen and that the likely upcoming dilution would make the short side hold out, so I was unwinding. The MS upgrade to $320 broke that apart, so luckily I had only unwound a little bit. Still, I sold too much early in the morning yesterday. I still have after effects of the Q3 earnings that cause me to have a quicker trigger finger than I probably should have had.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I still hold one share from the very first batch of TSLA I purchased for ~$19 just because I like looking at it and seeing that it is up 1000%.

    Unfortunately, I sold calls against my common shares to raise cash that I used to set up my earnings play. The earnings play worked out really well, and it was totally the right thing to do, but it now looks like my 1 $19 share is going to get called away.

    That makes me sad. =( #tslashareholderproblems
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This morning something crossed my mind: "The more I think about Doug Kass' TSLA short the better I feel about it"
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was unwinding my SHORT calls, so it turned out to be a really good thing. The only bad thing was that I kept a couple $250's short, when I should have unwound those as well.

    I came up with my strategy today:

    Buy puts at open.
    If stock keeps going up, then double down on puts.
    If stock keeps going up, then sell Deep OTM calls.
    If stock keeps going up, then retire :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's funny, I can never buy puts (let alone hold on to them when red) like I can calls. It just doesn't feel right :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Weeklies? strike?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, just wow. I started the process of buying some puts, and before I could finish typing the order the stock rose $6. I think I'm just going to watch and relax.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like they are going down the drain. Weeklies $235.

    I buy puts as a hedge, just in case. Normally I would be selling calls, but I am afraid that the short squeeze might continue and take us way above the strike price that I was going to sell.

    I still want TSLA to go up, those puts are for small dollar amounts, but can ease the pain if TSLA were to pull back.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am at such a loss. Trying to figure out what puts to buy, if any, as a hedge
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow. Elon, seriously, just halt trading right now and buy a factory.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A few times now I have simultaneously wanted to both buy and sell. I eventually realized this was because I had no idea what to do. So I decided to wait and see if something solidified, and usually it has made me a substantial profit. I see the allure of the sell-side and short positions. But this morning I thought to myself, "Myself," I said, "We're in the middle of something unprecedented and big. It's almost like a new industrial revolution. The Electric Revolution, except it includes other stuff like cheap access to space. Don't be on the wrong side of history." I don't mean just Elon's companies, either. Climate change is forcing many responses, and much new innovation.

    There's a Sci-fi writer, James P. Hogan. Some of his stuff I really like a lot. Some of it not so much, so I'm not actually telling you to go read his books. But one of his premises is that with cheap access to space and cheap energy, resources become almost infinite, and the economy as we know it will not be needed. It's too idealistic an idea for me, but one thing is for sure, it will change many things.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sleepy, I think you'd want to be selling ITM puts, then after the stock rises, close them out, as they'll be worth far less.
    That's what DaveT's strategy guys video was recommending anyway.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I cashed out my puts at a nice 80% gain. I then tried to turn that money around and buy weekly calls, but got too greedy on my limit order. I missed out on 50% trying to scalp a few pennies. I got 1 out of 20 contracts filled
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree, except that I don't find it relaxing. I find it exciting! I'm sure the shorts find it exciting too...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guesses on when we will actually hear the giga-factory news?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I guess I went into weak long territory. Did what I threatened a couple of days ago and sold another part of my long-term stake. Now down to ~50% of my initial position bought about a year ago. Average selling price since the earnings report is somewhere in the region of $250... This stuff gives me ulcers, and I'm 27.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nothing weak about that, you held onto it for a year, and took some profits when the stock was at an ATH. Well played.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Surprised there's no announcement yet on at least a press conference time for the gigafactory reveal. Wonder if the partners are having trouble getting ducks in a row.

    Given the levels of anticipation, the stock may swing fairly wildly if they pushed the announcement to next week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you. We'll see if I'm kicking myself about this a year from now, but it's hard to be disappointed at selling too early, especially when all traditional metrics such as portfolio overweight and volatility have been screaming "sell" for at least six months. The toughest part of investing is holding on when things are going well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bless me father for I have sinned....
    Well I sold a bunch @157 and some at 153 on the chance that after squeeze and announcements we'll see a little settling down prior to the 280's and up. Last time I messed around like this was back@ 87 and I had to get back in @ 92 and promised myself never again! (Sorta like after that kegger in college :) ) So hear I am pins and needles watching it hold on tight to 257-258 tellin myself that tripling your $ is the worst that can happen and yet, it still doesn't feel so good!

    So, I guess there's nothin to do cept let the shorts clear out and jump back in but hmmmm 210? 240? 225? How smart/lucky do I think I am anyway!?! aarrgghh, as sweat beads up etc. ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've jumped in and out a couple of times so I know the feeling. I don't sweat the volatility that much anymore, If I believe it's going to be much higher in the future than it is now, I don't care about the daily or weekly swings that much, but I do try to profit form them by trading around my core position. You could have sold some calls to lock in some profits and still leave a little room for upside.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been reading and following but I'm still a little unsure of the mechanics of the puts and calls. But I'm learning and hopefully I'll have a quick entry point to get back in with a bit of a gain. I guess one could say that I dipped in a little to my core position and the bigger move was some brokerage foolin around $

    Still sweating @$259 :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had twice gotten completely out of my positions in TSLA, took profits, when FUD, etc. hit. I was always lucky enough to buy back more shares at lower prices each time. My strategy has changed since starting option trading. I will now hold my core shares and LEAPS and stomach an up to 30% down swing and try to make a couple bucks trading options. I closed out the rest of my weeklies on the big surge this morning. I, like many others, have no idea what short term options to play for the next few days. I can not believe we can sustain this surge but the stock keeps climbing!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed -- the option premiums are ridiculous now...unless we are sitting at $320 soon. I stared long and hard at the Jan 16 $510 LEAPS this morning but didn't pull the trigger. Still trying to plot my next play.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold some covered calls at what I thought was a really high price at various points in the past week... in the 230's and most recently at 255. Hard to stare at the big red numbers of the 230's.

    I still have a chunk of the shares I bought after the GS "upgrade" to a price target in the 60's last July when it dropped from the 130's to just under 110. I'm probably never selling those.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ouch, well, giving back a lot of what I gained yesterday. Took a big chunk of it and bought various ATM calls when it retraced back to 255 from the open. Yea...all approaching zero value in a hurry.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems to be following the rest of the market. I like to think this is a "bear trap".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    After taking some profits in my larger holdings, I just bought a small amount of weekly 280's that I'm calling "sleepy's limo fare" to see if I can catch some post-Giga factory upward movement. Here's hopin!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got an image of having to chew my leg off to get out alive.

    Like most mornings, I'm in commute when the market opens and I can't do anything until about 45 minutes into things. I would have like to have bought puts, just like sleepyhead had indicated, but by the time I got into work it was well on it's way to retrace the morning. It looked like it'd bottomed (filled the gap?) around 255. And, indeed, for the next few hours things looked good. Hopefully the gigafactory announcement actually happens this week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    some claim that giga factory priced in. i dont think so. yes usually buy rumour and sell on anouncement but this is different. NOBODY knows what it the gigafactory is other than partners involved and lots of batteries. all the partners not known. the structure, cost, time table effect on company all unknown. amount of secondary or timing of secondary not known. suspect move up were some shorts selling in anticipation of the announcement. i suspect most still short waiting to hear details.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree. Maybe I've just been drinking too much of the kool-aid but I think this giga-factory is going to be monumental. Tesla is about to disrupt a trillion dollar, century old industry. I've said this before but its the only thing thats missing from Tesla producing millions of cars a year and changing the world as we know it. Even at 250/share I don't think that is priced in. Once it is "real", that will silence a lot of the critics who still think the Gen.III is just a pipe dream too. To be honest though I could care less what happens with the stock in the short term. I think it should go up for the reasons I just stated, and I am still betting it will, but as a Tesla believer it will be more satisfying knowing the end goal is one big step closer. I am very excited to hear the details.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, trade ideas are welcome indeed as the premiums are HUGE. I just looked that the June $250 straddle is worth $63 meaning that $187...$313 is free money 8-| I really am thinking on selling the IV, but I can't figure out what a good play would be .... weekly $280 call and $220 put?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm thinking about selling covered '16 510s. About 15 bucks each and that gives me a price of 525 in 2 years. Essentially, if they get called, I will have made enough money just off of stock to call myself 1% in terms of income. And could likely retire and live off of dividend stocks or something. In my early 30s. So I think I would be okay with missing out on some upside beyond that.

    Edit: never mind, I'm not thinking about it. My order executed and sold 3 contracts at 15.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm assuming that the stock will move big in either direction if giga factory is announced after hours today. So I actually bought weekly $240 puts and $260 calls. If the move is up big, then the return on the $260's should significantly outweigh the losses on the put and vice versa. Of course worse case would be if the stock stayed flat. This is small money but just trying it out.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    JUST OUT
    Tesla Motors, Inc. ?
    $800,000,000 ?
    % Convertible Senior Notes due 2019 ?
    $800,000,000 ?
    % Convertible Senior Notes due 2021 ?
    Interest payable March 1 and September 1
    ?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Seems like the only problem here is you can't write other covered calls on those shares (right?) and you can't sell them without unwinding those sold calls, which if the stock has gone up there's no way out of them without a loss.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, there's always a problem. Yes I can't write other covered calls, and yes I can't sell the stock. I was planning on buying back during a period of consolidation or if it drops (which it's doing a small amount of now, after the offering was announced after hours, so maybe I'll get them back tomorrow, who knows).

    That said, I could easily sell the stock and buy them back and take a hit. Right now the 510s are 15 bucks and the 410s are ~25 bucks. So, roughly (yes this isn't quite how it works but run with me here), if the stock goes up 100 points, I'll be down like 60% on the calls.

    All I did was notice that the price seemed extremely high for deeeeeeeeeep otm calls, and figured I might as well sell some. If the stock doubles tomorrow and they get called away, oh well, I'm still a Teslanaire. And even though the '16s have about 2x the time as the '15s, they're 3x the price. I almost sold 420 calls yesterday and today noticed the 510s were available, so I made what I consider even a better bet than yesterday.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How do you upload a .pdf? I was able to download a Gigafactory presentation.

    Update:

    Nevermind someone posted it in the short-term thread.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Those prices are ridiculous. To think that I bought all of my $220's at $17 less than 3 months ago.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As did I - thanks to you.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gigafactory news pushed share price past $260 after hours. I'm super excited about this. The big volume production of these battery packs will be a boon for home energy systems and power grid balancing as well as automobiles.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, they are ridiculous, which is why I sold them.

    Then again, we doubled in a month. Do that again and it won't be so ridiculous. 17 bucks for 220s was almost as ridiculous at 110 as 15 for 510s at 250. Life with TSLA.

    They're already not looking ridiculous with this AH move :-/
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you mean you just wrote 510 LEAPS, or sold some calls you were holding? I think I'm confused about whether you guys mean you think the premiums on these LEAPS are unjustified, or something else...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sounds like he wrote covered calls on the 510s
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just keep buying DITM options... slow and steady. Roll forward as needed. Funny that $220 is now DITM.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA is permanently spoiling us, you know -- I make an options play in anticipation of the giga-factory announcement and "only" earn few tens-of-thousands of dollars on it (while the rest of my long TSLA position does much better). This feels like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to earn money just by thinking rationally and paying attention.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, sorry. I mean I wrote covered 2016 $510 calls for 15 dollars.

    Just seems like the premium is quite high for something which assumes another doubling in <2 years. But I know anyone who made that bet in the last two years would have been screwed, so I dunno. Probly should have done it tomorrow instead of today. Was just thinking/hoping we'd see a little consolidation soon and that I might as well sell some huge premiums which were probably high given the recent massive upswing.

    I still have many shares which aren't at risk of being called away, and even more LEAPs than shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not a big fan of this play, assuming you would let those sold calls ride. Much more premium can be made by selling weekly calls anytime TSLA has a big runup and can expect a short term pull back. Plus, weekly time decay is so much better to sell IMO (but i'm a newbie options guy). I prefer to sell the premium and if the stock rises to the strike I just buy some replacement shares and hand them over, I hold a little cash in my account for this. rinse and repeat. Worst case is i get stuck with a few extra tsla shares short term, no worries since I know they are going up. Do the math.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I'd say good luck to you, but since I might be the guy on the other side of that trade buying your 510's and holding, I guess I won't wish you all that much luck :).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This...

    ...and this.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agree with @sub
    I think weekly or perhaps monthly writes prove a better path
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup, I sold covered calls last week, they expired worthless. This week, I've sold (and bought them back for much less) twice, made some money, just on volatility (sell them near a high). Today I closed them out and bought a few Feb28th weekly $280 calls for .39, I think those will do fine tomorrow, though $280 is a bit of a stretch, but who knows.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wasn't planning on letting them ride, I was planning on the stock consolidating or correcting a little and then buying them back at some point. Maybe I went too far out with them, but I just looked at them and thought they were very overpriced, so I figured I'd sell them. Shrug. Also I really don't mind selling my shares at 525 anytime soon, even if I did let it ride...

    I still have plenty of shares to write calls against, and have sold shorter term ones which I was ready to cover with new shares before. I do have plenty of margin to cover buying extra shares should I need to get some called away (is there a way you can designate shares to be called away, or will they pick the right ones, most recently bought or highest strike or whatever?). I sort of just did this trade on a lark earlier today, and didn't expect it to execute, and then it did. So I might start doing the weekly thing more often. Only reason I haven't done it much prior is because right when I started doing options was when everything crashed so I certainly didn't want to miss the recovery.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So, how are folks planning to play tomorrow's movement? With the AH jump, I tend to think we'll see another bump up out of the gate tomorrow. After that, I don't know-I'd like to think the market in general will see the importance of the giga announcement and its smart financing and continue upward, but I'm not sure how confident in that assessment I should be.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IV is probably going to be crazy high tomorrow morning but my guess is as the day/week goes on it's just going to go higher. I'm thinking I really need to buy some stuff first thing tomorrow. Usually that's a bad idea but I don't think everyone will have realized the significance of what is going on right away but will realize at least part of it if not tomorrow, then within the next week. I think we are at least half a step ahead of everyone else. It's 2 AM here on the east coast and I'm up reading/researching still so I make some informed decisions tomorrow, how many people short tesla are doing the same?

    Maybe I'm being "over exuberant" :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I completely agree jonathan. This is the first time plan has gone from drawing board to reality. Now we see how the dots will connect, and i think that will draw in more people. I am removing hedges tomorrow morning and i will be buying at whatever price is available under 265
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's 8 AM here in Norway. I was up half night reading about the Gigafactory. I'm at work now but my mind is in the deserts of Texas or Nevada :)

    Anyway, I agree with you Jonathan, I've experienced it now so many times that it takes "the market" days if not sometimes weeks to understand something that I thought was obvious. Don't underestimate "our" head start in both getting and understanding TSLA news. I will actually be buying medium term (April?) some $20 OTM calls at market open, barring any over-the-top-crazy premarket activity, and try to forget what the premiums for those were last week (that's the hard part). But today is a new day and everything just changed.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good, I'm glad I'm not crazy! My wife was sad that I didn't go to bed with her but she understands. I'm getting very close to a 10 bagger on my initial investment from 1 year ago so she knows I do what I got to do, haha. I also was thinking the same as far as what to buy. I was thinking some $280-300s for April. I also was thinking of getting some June $300s. I have some June $220s I bought several weeks ago of which I may roll up to get more $300s or maybe do something more ATM with that money, whatever that ends up being tomorrow, haha, though maybe I'll wait and see for those as the delta is nice on them and large delta is nice when you know the price is going up but you're not sure how much. I have too many options! (pun intended)

    Edit: I'll reign in some enthusiasm. For medium term holding I don't like to go crazy OTM, so I think $280 Junes are more up my alley.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dang I was hoping to buy stocks now pre-market, but its already $265.
    Its at $267 in Frankfurt so no help there.
    If the SI was high at $200 I wonder what it is now.
    Morgan Stanley might get their PT very soon.

    #soldtosoon #buyingonopening
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ok this is getting to crazy

    got in at 34$ hold it all the way and not gonna sell under 1000$
    my message to the shorts
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've been extremely lucky in my timings this week :D Bought weeklies on Monday and MS upgraded price causing TSLA to skyrocket. Then bought yesterday 5 minutes before close weekly 260's. And then the gigafactory announcement came out :D Yay ... Only bad thing is that I only bought about half of the weeklies I had planned as I expected TSLA to keep the slow dive until market close, but misread the time :( I thought there was a bit over an hour to market close and was really surprised when suddenly the stock market closed :D Oh well, will only ride half of my planned calls to the stratosphere.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would describe my investment style as 'mostly lucky'. Bought 260s and 270s at close because I wanted some short term 'skin in the game'. Who knew:wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also picked up some weekly 270s and even 290s for the hell of it yesterday. Is it 9:30 yet?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And I, of course, picked up no other than the weekly $280's yesterday :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Way to complete the straight! Let's hope it ends up being a royal flush today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, a royal flush out of shorts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "We estimate the transaction will be dilutive to TSLA EPS by ~15% over the next three years but by a much smaller 4% in 2018, the year on which we base our valuation. As such, our 2014/2015/2016 EPS estimates decline to $1.40/$2.00/$4.50 from $1.79/$2.37/$4.87. Our estimates fall as the offering increases Tesla's icon1.png borrowing costs from the combination of increased cash interest expense as well as amortization of the original issue discount (OID) related to the embedded convert option," said analyst Patrick Archambault.

    "We adjust our 6-month price target�derived under three equally weighted scenarios applying a 30.0x multiple to earnings and discounting at a 20% cost of equity�to $170 from $118, which reflects multiple expansion from 20.0x to 30.0x. This multiple expansion is based on: (a) the increased liquidity which improves Tesla�s risk profile allowing it to make the necessary component investments to support its growth outlook, and (b) greater confidence in the company�s execution based on recent operating results which lend credibility to TSLA�s longer-term EBIT margin target of mid to low teens. We note we have not made changes to volume assumptions at this time," he added.

    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+(TSLA)+Price+Target+Raised+to+$170+at+Goldman%3B+EPS+Estimates+Lowered/9224235.html
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Other people buying in still at open? looks lower premarket than I expected it to be.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'll add a few more weeklies at the open. Just for the fun of it. Not too much though...timing will be everything here (especially with the exit), since it's not much time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Busy selling to raise cash to buy weeklies this morning.

    Now lets go TSLA!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    jeez you guys still buying weeklies (expiring tomorrow)? living life on the danger side, arent we ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    He didn't say which weeklies. I bet sleepy is buying March weeklies. That's what I did yesterday :).
    �
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