Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 19

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Same here (in AZ). This is without a doubt, the best "recall" letter I have ever received.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have indicated that I have been having a hard time reading the weekly option Tea leaves. Well with the FUD release 'coincidentally' a day before a big options close date (100 european car crap) I bought 230s on the dip. Got them for .65/ sold literally 15 minutes later for 1.30.

    We have had a roughly 15% drop from ATH (265ish) with NO real negative news. This 'feels' like a good time to buy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice trade and you did the right thing to sell a quick double.

    Of course every time you sell a quick gain, it turns out that you should have held. But when you hold on and get greedy, the stock reverses and you end up losing it all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    :biggrin: Yep. Could have held out for 200% gain (or more) it appears but always happy with any gain!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sooooo. I know single orders aren't everything, but right after I bought a few 240 calls for next week before the bell, someone just sold a wee bit of TSLA in one order on my thinkorswim feed. 937,143 shares -- for a total of $214,502,661.27. Sigh. Wish I could buy .76% of the company.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Flux cap, that order of 937143 is the "market on close" order, not one individual person. It's a collection of all people and institutions that put in a market on close order at least 15 min before the bell. They settle it at the last ticker price.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well that explains that. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Particularly at the expiration of quarterly options.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, so my father's Model S is now in status "Production Complete, ready for pickup and delivery". Tesla scheduled March 29th for delivery but he is going out of town the 30th and wants to push it back until he returns.

    Today I convinced him that as a shareholder it is his fiduciary responsibility to take delivery on the 29th to be counted as a Q1 Delivery. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I wondered for a while why there were such seemingly large orders on closing, every day. Now I understand, at least I think I do. Makes sense. Unfortunately the more I understand, the more I realize how ignorant I am. Argh
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Auzie- I feel the same way. Doug Kass actually taught me what a market on close order was when he was claiming that tesla was going to fall hard because of the large market on close order. (If the market on close order is heavily skewed toward selling, since the price is fixed as the last ticker price, it can cause the stock to gap down the next day because market makers will fill the "sell orders" by finding someone to temporarily buy from that seller... that buyer then dumps first thing the next day).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you for that extra information, it is useful to know. Now I have to think a bit more hard to understand what you said and today is my slow thinking day. Not sure that I understand how 'temporarily buy' process works.

    If Kass's claim is right, I am just wondering why TSLA does not gap down every day? I think I see large market on close order almost every day on TSLA ticker on Nasdaq website. I will certainly pay more attention to how large that number is from now on. If my thinking speed improves, I might look at historical CTM and opening price numbers and establish if there is any correlation. If such data is available.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doug Kass was claiming that from 3 weeks ago. It did gap down a bit, to 230, before going back to 245. I don't put much stock in it (pun intended). The size of the order doesn't indicate which way it will gap- the size of the market to close order doesn't tell you the excess sellers or the excess buyers (which would gap up). In other words, don't read into it at all! Doug kass was claiming to have additional information that he knew there were excess sellers that particular day. You or i don't have access to that information so it's not worth looking at.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's like the market knows I need to cash out a non-trivial amount of stock to pay taxes soon on last years gains and it's purposefully driving down TSLA and all the solars over the last week. Evil, evil market.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, when I sold some of my shares at $230 and some more at $250, I was hoping it would drop so I could buy back a larger holding. Well I did manage to buy back without any significant loss in number of shares. I just didn't have the patience to wait for it to drop to $220, which was my original target for repurchase. Since it got down to $218.26 this a.m., I hope that means the gap has been filled and it can start back up again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Couldn't help myself and added a bit more shares at $214.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    @dmckinstry
    did more or less the same, took some profit on a small portion at 249.50 and bought some back at 228.50, and more at 225. Overall i am convinced, that NHTSA (or whatever the abbreviation is) will give the "all clear" soon (see firmware 5.9 thread), which should give a good support, or initiate a upward trend again. Onan other note: This is definitely a stock that destroys my habit of buy and hold. The prospects in the long future look so good, meanwhile the volatility is so high, it's too tempting to play that as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Me too... me too I'm in this exact situation
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, despite the ugly day, the only thing that's really taking some damage are my J16's. Everything else is doing alright. I'm glad I got away from short term options, so much less stress. The only short term option I'm holding now is a very green APR 240 Put :D

    I'm just pleased with myself that I am able to weather a -5% day with virtually no emotion. I even added to my June 270's.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Jan '16 300/500 bull call spreads are only ~25 bucks right now. Break even at 325, with 8x potential upside. I've been replacing rock with some 400/500 spreads lately, considering doing that with the 300/500 too. Though probly not a great idea to sell stock at this particular moment, hmm.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    still holding out on making a reservation, waiting to hear what their roof top cargo solution is... such a cool car but not being able to put the normal stuff like skis, cargo container or kayaks on top is a deal breaker for this family of 4.

    I suspect that if they come out with a reasonable solution, that orders will skyrocket and lift TSLA as well.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Huh, this long drop in TSLA has put me close to hitting my margin limit. I don't actually have any borrowed amount on margin, just the margin capacity used for a sold PUT (which is green since it's a $180 PUT I sold it a long time ago).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Lucky you. i have a the first 11k of a 70k fed margin call due tomorrow. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yea, worst case is I buy back my sold PUT and cash out enough shares to cover the premium that's no longer padding my account. Not sure I really want to sell super long term PUTs anyway. I think I might be better off selling short term ones repeatedly, but on the other hand, I'm fairly sure the long term PUT won't ever bite me (unless Tesla completely keels over and goes out of business) while the short term ones would obviously hurt in a week like this one.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think i'm a fan of using margin when there's fear in the market, so loading up now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So with the new v5.9 update allowing the low suspension setting again, maybe some good news from our favorite government agency is near!?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No offense intended to you, Cameron--but if I had 1/10th of a TSLA share for every time there was a mention on this board of "With <event or extrapolation X> occurring/being near, I bet NHTSA clearance is nigh!", I'd... well, I'd have a lot more shares of TSLA.

    I hope you're right, but I will continue patiently waiting while the gears of government slowly grind.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Sorry for going off a tangent here. It is the Social Chat!

    When was Elon's big family road trip due? Wasn't it supposed to happen around ... now? Haven't seen a hint for quite some time. On the other hand, it is probably prudent to not expose all those eggs to a harsh world in real time.

    I figure that might be one part of a great run-up series of triggers, � la last year's 5-part trilogy. Just give me a day to load up some extra cash ... :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like we got the very predictable bounce off 218, any technical gap has been filled, and we are ripe for steady movement upward barring any major news. Now would be a good buying point for anyone with the cash to spare. The only drops from here should be if something negative hits the company.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would certainly think so. I'd really be surprised that tesla mgmt would move forward on lowering suspension without knowing that NHTSA is going to issue an "all clear"
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I take them finally sending out an official letter for recalling the adapters + v5.9 software rolling out now bringing back highway lowering as good evidence the NHTSA issues are resolved and we will indeed be hearing from them soon.

    I bought some weeklies - expiring this week and next week - today on the dip.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It could be next month, but I don't see what the big deal is now (in terms of TSLA impact), really. A few people have already done the coast-to-coast trip on superchargers only. One of them (callmesam) even did it in a 60 kWh model, both ways. Unless it's a huge press event that goes viral or something, I don't think it will have much of an impact.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes, your points are valid. I just think Elon has shown a certain flair for PR, dropping one well-aimed little bit after another to drive home one orchestrated message. This trip might be one of those opening items, creating media exposure from a wider group than motor or financial reporters.

    Also, it's been eerily quiet about European superchargers lately, I can't even find any official permits where I have looked. Someone speculated this silence could be due to a new generation of higher power chargers being in the making. And a German guy (JP) has a couple of videos test-driving a Model S, where he asks the Tesla rep when he can go to Hamburg or Berlin and the reply was: "Ask me again in 3 or 4 weeks"! There are 82 in the US today but the European number has been frozen at 14 since last Fall. If/when v6 is released combined with Autobahn tuning, sales in DE may take a leap. Fremont production may have jumped lately. Nearing Q1 end, perhaps a hint of current state, Gigafactory plans taking on some concretion, start of delivery in CN, production of LHD, etc might all contribute to support TSLA.

    Well, we can dream.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just put in a series of orders for shorter term TSLA call options including a couple weeklies. Currently I have a stock and LEAP replacement of stock strategy only. I could be wrong but it looks like we are oversold and short interest comes out today. I am expecting a big number. Oversold (close to 20% off ATH), short interest, hopeful positive catalyst on the horizon (release of 5.9 with auto lowering shows TM bullish on NHTSA decision even if not released; pending announcement of Elon's Xcountry trip). Fingers crossed!



    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2014/03/24/whats-it-like-to-buy-a-tesla-in-china/


    positive catalyst??
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope my orders get placed.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My TSLA short term ones did not get filled at market open. Stock jumped. I was able to get some SCTY LEAPS today (replacing stock there also).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, this is less than ideal. I sold my stock to buy LEAPS, but my broker only lets you buy 50% of your worth as options (non-margin securities). So, I'm sitting on a bunch of cash and I'm unable to buy nearly as many LEAPS as I'd expected. Despite reading up on margin and such many times, the vagaries of the rules still manage to surprise me. I never ran into this with Ameritrade, but I always had a significant core stock position.

    Edit: Fortunately, the fix was a simple call to the broker and they changed my account to 100% available for options. Though they also doubled my margin capacity for non-options...too much power there, dangerous :).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree about the EU superchargers potentially being a bigger catalyst. That, along with the rollout of the 3-phase HPWCs in EU will help Tesla homogenize some of the charging issues related to having multiple different plug types in EU. In the Q1 call, they mentioned they were working on EU charging issues, which they expect to fix, followed by an increase in EU demand. This is what I am looking forward to.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, don't go buy 150% weekly options :) Well, unless you have a time machine and you know the stock will go up 25% tomorrow, in which case send me a PM.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm now fully grasping the side effects of my entire position being in options (since LEAPS are options). The broker changed my account limitations, so I was able to convert my entire value of TSLA stock to TSLA LEAPS. However, it means I have zero left for options trading.

    Before, about 1/2 my account was in TSLA stock and 1/2 in other options (mostly solar). That left some margin capacity for options which I used primarily to sell a long term PUT to pad my account balance. Note, just using the margin capacity, not actually going into margin debt. I figured selling a JAN 2015 $200 put was basically free money and used margin capacity I wasn't otherwise using. Now, however, I don't have that free margin capacity to do the same thing. I'm essentially unable to sell PUTs now that my entire position is composed of long term options.

    I can sell a boat load more CALLs though since I have way more share equivalents with LEAPS than I did stock. I haven't typically sold calls though.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good observation- It sort of reverses the play (you've entered my world here a bit). I used to use margin as you've described, went to LEAPS and now hold those while selling calls at local peaks. In the end, had better luck this way, but I think it's because my pre-disposition is biased to bull rather bear.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have decided I am tired of tracking the NASDAQ. Elon, throw us a bone? :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Amen, brother.

    tsla_nasdaq.png
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm a big believer in sentiment in the stock market. When TSLA was at 190-194 in the fall, everyone on here was all excited, there were hundreds of post per day and it felt like the stock couldn't be stopped. We were too greedy. Then boom, down to 140-130-120. People getting frustrated, "will this ever stop", people selling their long positions, etc. We (most of us) were too fearful.


    When TSLA got to 255-265 last month, looking back, the same feeling among us - "will it be 280 by the end of March?", "haha to the shorts", etc. - again too greedy. Now it is dropping (on no news) and I am starting to sense some of the same fear and frustration coming back (not just on here but in me too). I don't no where the bottom will be, but unless some major bad news come out (either macroeconomic or TSLA-specific), there is no way this stock will keep going down like this forever, and in the next few months we will look back on this time and smile like we do now to the 120's in November. I think the bottom is near and I am going to use my sense of sentiment on here and in myself to try to help time it. Or maybe some big good news will (finally) come out which will shift things up.

    Anyways, just my opinion and I feel like next time there is a big spike up and it seems like we (and I) start seeming too positive/greedy, I will try to check my enthusiasm and hedge or sell off more of my short-medium term positions.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've believed for a long time that the best way to generate wealth in the stock market is to identify a company with great potential, buy the stock, and hold it for a long time. At times like these, when TSLA is on a steady downward glide from dizzying heights, I think it makes sense to take some perspective on the company's future plans.

    We still have Model X, Gigafactory, global expansion, batteries for the power grid, and Model E in the pipeline. The secret plan won't be in focus to the rest of the world until 2019-2020 or so. That's probably when I think big rewards will happen.

    I don't sweat the volatility today. Enjoy the ride. Unless you're playing options if course :p
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am in stock and 2016 leaps. It is a luxury to shrug and remind myself I can just wait it out. I have ( so far) resisted the temptation to buy short term calls; picking a bottom. We are just in a new phase where it won't be all up all the time. I am not concerned about the medium or long term share price. I will still play predictable moves but there hasn't been one in a while.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I agree completely. Jan/Feb was like the EM quote 'The fish were jumping in the boat' with short and medium term calls. Lately, I have not been able to, as I like to say, 'read the tea leaves'. I have had a couple small short term plays but I bet they have broken even in the month of March. I am going with LEAPS. I have to stomach them being in the red right now but hope that with the longer horizon they will get back to even, then green with Q2/Q3
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My Jan15 and Jan16 LEAPS are looking fairly sickly today. However, with the recent price drop for TSLA I may be able to buy back into my original stock position and keep my sickly LEAPS for the same amount that I sold some TSLA for at $257. Of course, it would have been much nicer if TSLA had gone to $280 and DaveT and I bought Sleepy that plane ticket to the shareholders meeting! :frown:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed. I was looking forward to fronting the limo cost. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Back to the idea of a series of run-up trigger occasions: Someone mentioned that Elon is going to personally present the first Right-hand-drive Model S to a prominent person in UK more or less "soon". This made me speculate who that might be and I came up with one obvious candidate: hrh Chuck Wind-sol. Fits green profile. Was I just having a fevered dream after yesterday's minestrone? (Or maybe fava'ed;) )

    In addition to kids trip, EU launch of new generation SCs with more detailed roll-out plan, China launch, QE production, shipment and/or delivery figures, announcement of GF, V6 SW, official all-clear on safety, and whatever I forgot. This weekend, late on Sunday, is the launch of a manned Falcon 9/Dragon task with (landing legs) so Elon will be fully occupied well into April 1 at least; any late March activities are probably out of the question by now.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope it won't be a gift, especially for a nobleman whose great wealth is derived from all British subjects. The publicity would be most effective, if the recipient pays for the car after having ordered it on his own initiative.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It won't be. Tesla does not give cars away. Elon had to buy all his, remember, as did the board.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Indeed, bad choice of word on my part. I meant, personally deliver into the hands of. Thanks for the correction.

    Also, thanks JRod for the update. Only now saw the delay tweeted by SpaceX, a bare hour ago. Still makes mincemeat of any intensive travel plans for Elon.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would love to hear from TA expert what happened to the support level at 218.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gap fill and trend-resumption is a myth. gap fill indicates weakness/indecision especially following an uptrend. nothing special about 218.

    200 is a psychological support. I think TSLA likely to revisit pre-earnings level.

    I find it hard to believe the convertible bond price has not been breached.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Not sure it is an excessively good idea to lose heart, most especially for those with stock and leaps.

    We got a great run-up on the road show for the gigafactory bond offering and a huge short squeeze. So that was nice.

    Now we have Tesla in a negotiations phase - basically taking a tour of states that object to direct sales and dangling $5 bn in their faces - which seems to be working in Arizona and now Texas too. Ohio - now that was an interesting victory by the looks of it despite GM's direct intervention.

    There is also the scheduled partner negotiations on the gigafactory which Panasonic seems happy to game in public - thanx for that.

    Musk is no doubt heavily into SpaceX for this reusable vehicle launch and frankly speaking he's done what he needed to do in a PR role to bring the money into Tesla on excellent terms.

    Now that the money is in Tesla I suspect that the low Q1 guidance does not stand. By the looks of it vehicles are flooding off the boats in Norway at a silly pace and possibly elsewhere in Europe too. This looks a bit like timing to me. Given the frantic delivery activity so close to the last days of the quarter I would well imagine that these are numbers that are not included in conservative guidance.

    I would assume that the recent slide has mostly to do with concern over a modest forthcoming quarterly earnings report (as guided) and uncertainly setting in regards the gigafactory in the absence of updates. What is actually happening I suspect is stunning progress on the factory and the deliveries.

    News hiatus followed by useful update from Musk after month end would be on the cards IMO.

    JC
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't mean to be Bluto in Animal House, but does anyone remember when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor! When the going gets tough.....well at $200+/share the going is not that tough. Remember $40 - $56... 56 - $90...$90 - 105, back to $92. $92 - $129 back to (thank you GS) $107...to $162 and change for the convertibles, to $184 for the warrants, to $192....for the heat back to $118 :eek:...to $140...160...200..(back to 192) to 212...245...265!:love:...back to 207...

    And yet Tesla is delivering over 1000 cars to Norway this Month. (From Singles - we're huge in Belgium!). It is, like the fits and starts of its stock price, changing the world! And we through our YouTube videos, analysis of ZEV credits, production rates and arguments over P85 or P85+ get to be part of it.

    I doubled down with Leaps at 120 (post 194) and I doubled down again with May calls today. It may be hopium, but don't discount Elon et al and the power of a paradigm shift. ZEV is not dead and yet roughly 3 quarters of no ZEV earnings (or 3/4 of $160 million in revenue from last year.). Was it April 1 of last year that Tesla announced positive Q1 earnings both GAAP and non-GAAP and Luv2b came out with a most excellent analysis....and I bought my first option contract...TSLA June 22 @ 65...that I bought for about 1$ and sold for $21.5. This is the 3rd inning, and TSLA is just getting warm.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Good news today NHTSA and Titanium underbody.

    By the way did you hear the rumor about Model T coming out just after Gen III?

    t80ud-01l.jpg
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Crap, the market found out about it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I picked up 220 and 230 weeklies yesterday as a crapshoot in hopes of something a la NHTSA. Hope it wasn't all priced in!
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    TSLA going to $220 today, since that is max pain.

    Just my opinion. I have been wrong about TSLA a lot in the last two weeks though...
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, it still has got today and Monday to go to $280, to vindicate my vote in the poll :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Well the government just officially called BS on the only bear case that ever had investors worried.

    I think many have become desensitised to just how much risk they were carrying in the form of an NHTSA recall proving the bears right, but they were not right, they were wrong.

    I suspect that there is $40 of relief in this news. $70 would be weird but cool. I expect interviews with Musk today will be a sight to behold for anyone looking for a reason to look at the upper end of the scale. This is against a background of GM and Toyota getting criminal fines for poor handling of lethal recall issues.

    Also by way of background: NJ backing down on banning Tesla - Ohio approved over GM's rotting corpse, possibly Texas, probably Arizona.

    I actually think it has become politically dangerous to ban Tesla direct sales.

    If Musk is feeling sufficiently ebullient to provide some hint of reassurance on gigafactory progress then that $280 is lofty from here but not entirely impossible. I cannot see any good reason for the stock decline of late except for the natural tail off of the last short squeeze.

    All good, happy hunting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That should have been clear to the dealers a long time ago. Campaign contributions go a long way, but in the end the votes come from... the voters. And those voters universally love the car and hate the dealers.

    The only dampening on the stock right now is the uncertainty surrounding the Gigafactory. I think that the stock will only move significantly if there is some decisive announcement detailing who, where, when, and how much.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Now we are starting to move up.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What I'd really like to see is a video with the underside of any ICE car taking that kind of damage, played side-by-side with the ones posted by Elon.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think this would be a great promotional video for EVs :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am afraid you are asking for an impossible video. The ICE car in similar circumstances will be taking damage to underside, inside, and outside (roof)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The issue would be, who would want to be the driver of your average ICE car for those tests?
    I think mythbusters would need to be involved to make a remote controlled car, for the tests, since no one's going to volunteer for driving the ICE car...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, it would have to be a driverless car.

    I know, I know: NHTSA should complement their existing testing to include such events! I can already hear the howls from the existing manufacturers if NHTSA did that.

    Come to think of it, I wonder if Tesla used a human driver to perform those tests? The videos show a real road surface, so it wasn't on a treadmill.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Random tweet from the last minute:

    tsla_tweet.png

    It's starting to sink in.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Maybe we will see a tweet from Elon: 152 vehicle level tests for underbody shielding were performed using our test fleet of driverless cars :tongue:
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tweet from Kass
    "'60 Minutes' will be doing a spot on TSLA and Elon Musk Sunday evening"
    Twitter / DougKass: will be doing ...

    Is it a hint to shorts to cover? haha.

    I'm actually not too sure what to think of how 60 Minutes will cover Tesla. They recently did a Clean Energy piece at it was really bad.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "The flamboyant billionaire......fires......government loans.......fires......auto dealers.....SpaceX......government contracts.....NHTSA....fires....the car is great, but can they make it affordable......fires......".

    Oh, and "......Paypal.......Solar City.......government subsidies.....".

    Here's to hoping I'm wrong.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So this is the long-awaited NHTSA clearance? This is a real whimper... I had called for a bigger reaction to this. Maybe clearance was truly priced in, or is this muted reaction due to the fact that they are in fact incurring a cost for these shields?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was thinking we'd see somewhere on the order of 5%, but maybe the cost of the fix and also that we've been dropping so much recently muted that slightly. This seems about what I figured would happen, which is why I'm glad I didn't play it. Still probly a good time to get in for the medium to long term right now, i guess.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
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    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Access to that password provides an intruder no more access than does a rock through the window. This is not an issue.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But I have never had any mobile access, app, bluetooth, paired device, wifi, etc set up for the MS. I did setup a password for TM, Inc website in order to purchase the car. Should I disable this account since I have not used it since? And is my car safely under the radar?

    > He said his review did not uncover any hidden software vulnerabilities in the car's major systems. [Reuters]

    Door locks apparently NOT a major system.
    --
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I always thought it was priced in more or less.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not the same thing. I would be concerned if settings could be changed remotely without you ever knowing (I am not sure if this is even possible, and it might actually not be.)

    A bad scenario, for instance, would be if someone could effect a change affecting driving dynamics while driving behind you. But as I said, I don't own a Tesla, so I don't know if such a scenario is possible, so you might be right.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    But the rock doesn't also help you locate the car.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That would be controlling "the major systems" and the app cannot do that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If you're never going to use mobile access, you can just turn off the "enable mobile access" setting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Last time I checked, access to my brokerage account is also a password away, and it is much more valuable than my Model S... I would argue that much of our lives and personal information is only password away.

    Aside from attempting to grab attention, the guy is also wrong on the details, like the length of the password. My is certainly longer than 6 characters...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Of course. My concern was related to the fact that this is a moving vehicle (but it seems it is a baseless concern.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Move was somewhat muted due to Panasonic "dust up"from yesterday (IMO).

    - - - Updated - - -

    I expected some bounce (5% etc). It's the removal of a negative element and it's associated uncertainty.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Don't agree. If the access to the password enables the car to be switched on and started also without the key fob it's not the same thing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You can't start the car via the app. Turn on and off the HVAC, unlock the doors, open the sunroof, trunk/frunk (though they won't open while the vehicle is in motion).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok then EarlyAdopter was right. Sorry (unluckily :crying:) I still don't have the Model S.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I used to work in network security, so I can't speak too heavily on cryptography and passwords to access a vehicle but I can talk a bit about cryptography nowadays. I can say that encryption of passwords nowadays are very safe. Though you do hear news of people losing their credit card information on popular websites through hackers, I don't feel the same way about a car. Someone stealing a car is not going to be intelligent enough to be able to hack cryptography and get a clear text password. Even if they do, the article admitted they wouldn't be able to get the car going. To further this difficulty, the famous hacking vulnerabilities of websites was done by professional hackers. Hacking isn't something you can just pick up and do. Tesla's website would have to be specifically vulnerable to hacking. While I don't work for Tesla I would be beside myself if Tesla kept their internal network connected to their external network (the website). So hacking into Tesla's main frame is another huge league. Stuff like over the air software updates and unlocking your car internally at Tesla is something done on a separate network altogether. There would be firewalls for that vulnerability.

    Also, anyone in the computer security world is going to want to say "This is unsafe because of XYZ" to tote around their knowledge. I have seen this a lot and I admit I do it myself. A concrete wall is unsafe because someone could smash through it and break into a bank. There comes a point where security gets ridiculous. Can the car be hacked? Technically yes. But a normal car on the street can get its lock jimmied AND the car stolen. To top it off the Tesla has GPS, so I imagine its not too hard to find.

    I would actually be quite interested to see how many or if any Model S's have been stolen without the need of the key fob. Also, it would be an interesting update to add an additional layer of security if optionally you could have a four number pin that you put into your screen every time you get in the car, regardless of a key fob. I think that would be a cool addition! Additionally, Tesla could make it so the mobile app doesn't have you automatically log in. Or make it so the mobile app doesn't have the capability to unlock your car, only to lock. I don't have my Model S yet so I don't know all the features of the app.

    Either way, I think Tesla is taking it seriously, but even in its current state and how cryptography is so powerful I feel like there is a law of diminishing returns when you are worried about someone hacking over the air.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you're concerned someone could crack your Tesla password and then track your location, they also have ample opportunity to crack the password on your Google or Apple account and track you through your phone's location. Or what's to stop them from sticking a vehicle location device up under your rear bumper and tracking you that way? There is no password to stop that. In fact, how do you know someone hasn't already done that to you? Do you ever look?

    If your concern is someone using that online access to find your car to then physically go break into it, I suspect they probably know you already and don't need to break into your account to locate your car. Otherwise you're just some random person in a random city, unlikely where they are. And even if they did, well at least you'll be left with unbroken windows and additional forensics traces (the online access will be logged).

    So long as an intruder couldn't affect vehicle driving safety or steal the vehicle (remote start) through the Telsa app, I really don't see how this is any different than any other modern device we all carry (smartphone). In fact, it's far less concerning as remote access to your phone can give away more information.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not really concerned and I agree with you that there are other vulnerabilities in modern life, I just wanted to point out that hacking the mobile access is not quite the same as using a rock to break into a random car. Worst case scenario, I'm picturing sophisticated hackers figuring out the login and pw for every Model S on the road. I think its unlikely that anyone would go to all that trouble just to steal the contents of people's cars, but it is still a theoretical risk. That being said, I have faith that TM is doing the right things to protect the network and will address any potential security breach that may come up.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I believe the market reaction was relatively muted because the collective "memory" of the fyres had faded. I suspect that NHTSA clearance was not so much "priced in" as it was forgotten.

    With no incidents in the last few months, and plenty of other news in the meantime, the rapid news cycle washed away the fears of last year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. Example: Toronto garage fire caused '0' negative impact on TSLA.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    > If you're never going to use mobile access, you can just turn off the "enable mobile access" setting. [MikeC]

    Was already/always OFF. Thanx. Whew, dodged that bullet!
    --
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Tesla Forum Members, please forgive my double post, but the second time watching this video now has me sharing on Social Chat Short Term. Video of Top Gear's Jeremy Clarkson (agas! I know) pitting the Mercedes supercar all electric SLS with it's V8 twin. Surprisingly the only negative comments were, you guessed it, price and range. I think Tesla has those two in order, unlike Mercedes which still has a long way to go.

    http://driving.ca/mercedes-benz/sls-...-powered-twin/

    This party is just getting started. Enjoy the EV Revolution

    Best,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So the piece on 60 minutes about HFT, should I look at sending our orders through the iEX?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Is this true, Fango? Documented somewhere?

    It's not as though there isn't one of those persons who couldn't easily afford the purchase...but it raises my esteem of the group if it's the case.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I don't have a link, but I do remember this being true, validated from a reliable Tesla source at the time. Including Elon, all paid essentially full price (no doubt some sort of employee discount applied, but essentially full up purchase). Just going from memory here, I'm sure others can corroborate
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The tale of Steve J. throwing down his check on the board room table before Elon is well know. They definitely pay for their cars, though I don't know what price they pay.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If you use market orders, yeah. If you only use limit orders, then I don't see the value.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For the record, my prediction about how the 60 minutes piece would turn out was utterly wrong. It was very positive (I'm assuming that the 13 min. I've seen on the web at the link above was the whole thing.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably, there were 3 segments for the whole show. The first segment about the rigged HFT was interesting too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like how they route the HFTs through 60KM of fiber cable to remove their speed advantage.
    NASDAQ should do the same thing, if they intend to regain the publics trust.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    On the 60 minutes web page I posted above, there are a few video extras that were not part of the broadcast. One of them ends with Elon saying:

    So a longer range is in the cards.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    > they route the HFTs through 60KM of fiber cable to remove their speed advantage. [mitch672]

    36 miles, I'm guessing maybe one second?? Whatever the delay it would be for each trade so cumulatively could be significant.
    --
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just if folks are curious light in fiber travels at 200,000 km/sec. That is a little slow than light in a vacuum but not much. So 60km would take about 300 microseconds. That is .0003 seconds. The delay is significant enough to prevent front-running of the order. In the 60 minutes illustration the order was sent to multiple exchanges at the same time. Once BATs had the order the algo goes and buys out the available shares at the other exchanges so that the order maker has to buy them at a higher price from the algo. The advantage the direct fiber routes provide is maybe 100 microseconds but maybe less than that. Apparently that is enough to front-run the orders. Oh, and I didn't quite make my Lenten penance and have been lurking the last couple days.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm liking the somewhat stabilized macroeconomic environment, the quite low IV on calls right now, and the fact that I'm confident the demand-obsessed market is seriously underestimating Q1 orders and deliveries for the Model S worldwide. So I decided to jump back in a bit on some post-Q1 ER calls (June). Anyone else dipping back in at these prices?

    Here's an interesting tracker of IV over the last year:

    TSLA IV 1y History.png
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I got back in 245 June calls @10.80 per call
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    bahhh

    no buyers, very boring day for tesla stock, nhtsa news having no positive boost effect on the stock....
    BAHH!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I see no reason to believe the downtrend in TSLA will reverse anytime soon. I think we're out of major positive catalysts for the near term (NHTSA clearance was a dud), and Elon pretty much guided to underwhelming revenues/deliveries for Q1 during the last conference call. I believe the market will punish TSLA for this and shorts will use it as new ammunition for their claims of petering demand. In addition, continued uncertainty and lack of material developments around the gigafactory will continue to weigh on the stock. IMHO, TSLA is on its way to a very attractive entry point, but we're not quite there yet.

    Disclaimer: I am long TSLA stock and leaps, but I am currently hedged with a proportional quantity of June puts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We have had multiple catalysts in the past week, and still no real effect. This behavior predated the panasonic issue as well, which has been the only truly bad piece of news. I think that larger forces are at play holding the price such down, such as portfolio rebalancing/profit-taking prior to taxes, etc. This information, if received a month a ago, would have us in the 300s. I think we just have to wait it out and hope we find/found a floor close to here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Certainly is plausible that we go below 200's, but I don't see that holding very long. This company is just too attractive. Just my current theory.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Quite possible, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we revisit the mid 100s in the next few months. That's the beauty of the market! Everyone can have their own analysis and we get to watch how things play out in real time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've got almost all my TSLA in Jan 2015 300s, which looks pretty dicey today. I should have picked 2016, though before this long decline $300 by January didn't seem all that unlikely.
    �
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