1/1/2015
guest Anyone who wants to buy into TSLA should do so now when things are looking down for the stock.
Nothing has changed for the fundamentals of the company. The Model S is still insanely great and getting better. Supercharger rollout rolls on. Markets overseas will ensure huge demand for years to come.
If Tesla becomes the manufacturing giant I believe it has the potential to become, and builds not only automobiles but power storage/buffer systems for alternative energy deployment, I can see it reaching a market cap of 200B+. Don't forget IP licensing as well.
I think that people buying in now could possibly see 10x return in a decade or so. Of course, there's A LOT of risk and a lot can go wrong. I think that things WILL go wrong from time to time. I want to emphasize again that this is not a stock for those with low risk tolerance.
A drop of 18% is quite steep, but long term investors should absolutely lose no sleep over this.�
1/1/2015
guest Five or six new Superchargers added this week makes the map look alot fuller. Looks like only a couple gaps left to fill and Elon will be able to announce both coasts can be driven top to bottom via Superchargers. That would be worth some good PR and hopefully a nice price bump. Some real news to combat the non-news.�
1/1/2015
guest I am predicting 65k to 80k cars built next year as well. Elon is spending most of his time on increasing production volume.�
1/1/2015
guest Elon cries Bullsh*t
I respect a man that speaks in a loud and clear voice. The "Solar Electric Economy" makes great sense. It is a grounded viable future.
We have the technology, today.�
1/1/2015
guest watching the ups and downs has been a very interesting process of getting to know ones emotions. there is some irony as I look back over the chart, the times I felt the most bullish and euphoric turned out to be the best times to sell and visa versa, about the time I really feel grim about things, that's when it's been the right time to buy. Oh how I wish I had a bunch of $$ in my sweep account right about now! The cars Tesla is cranking out right now have perfect fit and finish, seem remarkably reliable and have mouth watering performance, we are days away from being able to drive from Canada to Mexico on Super Chargers... this sure feels like a random lull prior to what will likely be a big climb up and over, a perfect time to buy. Of course no one can be sure of what the masses will do, and panicked stampedes do occur on occasion, which brings me back to the single most valuable piece of investment advice I've ever been given: "don't gamble what you can't afford to lose"! I do question, as it sounds like many are doing, "have I put too much on the line?" is that why I'm nervous or is this all just part of the jitters that comes with the territory of trading in new technology that has crazy, sky high potential? For now, I'm in long, barring some crazy stampede. The future looks very bright for Tesla, just as it did months ago.�
1/1/2015
guest Great post, 100thMonkey, completely agree�
1/1/2015
guest Exactly what I've been thinking. When TSLA shoots up everyone openly hopes for a dip so they can load up, confidence is high. The dip then presents itself and everyone panics. I'm not implying I've enjoyed the last week or two, but tesla is stronger than ever so I'm not worried about my shares. I almost pulled the trigger on some options but decided not to after weighing the risks. I'm confident in TSLA over these next 2-3 weeks and the long run, the medium term is going to be up and down as it has been.�
1/1/2015
guest I think the worry people feel is about short term losses in options plays. Yes, nothing has changed in the fact that we all expect a blowout Q3 ER and long term TSLA upmarch so anyone holding 2014-2015 options should probably indeed chill out or add to their position.
However people who started to set up for the Q3 ER at the time of fire and afterwards on the dips (me included) do see now that if TSLA is beaten down pre-earnings to levels of ~$150-160, then even a blowout ER might not break even the November options trades. Something that was not even an issue when we were trading at the $180-190 range. THAT is what has people scared and contemplating exiting the positions now with loss when there is still almost a months worth of time value left in the positions.
I personally have November $190's with average price of $8.8 (averaged down on dips including two purchases yesterday). To make a profit without hedging I need the stock to reach at least $199 after ER. If we start from $160 that's over 20% upside. We might or might not see that. My original plan was to hedge on day of earnings when the stock has run up somewhat and has also gained on the IV and it's likely that's still what I'll do. However I am contemplating putting out a limit order that will eliminate half of my position at 0 cost if TSLA were to spike up at some days market open or mid-day while I'm not watching. Just to reduce risk and re-invest that money in longer term options (March or even 2015 Jan LEAPS).
I also have December $180 and $190 calls and for those I'm far less worried. They have a good 7 or so weeks on them and will have a full 5+ weeks after Q3 ER so most likely they'll end up very nicely ITM or at least I'll be able to hedge them at some point. For anything in 2014-2015 that I have (some March $200 and Jan 2015 $190) I only am disappointed I have no more cash to add to their positions now that they are cheaper than when I bought them...�
1/1/2015
guest When I checked premarket today and TSLA at 166 I thought oh sh*t! :scared:
Then I realized it's actually up :tongue: ...can't get used to seeing TSLA in the 160's, let's hope we leave there soon!�
1/1/2015
guest If this stock goes up today then I swear I'm magic. Every single time I buy a put or two for potential freefall, the stock rebounds the next day :biggrin:.
I'll just have to employ that tactic next time the stock goes down so I can save us all some money lol.�
1/1/2015
guest Yes you and there was someone else who always bought calls just before the stock dropped need to keep posting your trades so that the rest of us can do the exact opposite
- - - Updated - - -
Ugh, so much about a push upwards. Selling pressure is still there and we're pushing TSLA into red again. No mentions of the press release in news section of IB so it's pure technical trading with no real big news. I think this will continue until we start to get more news and chatter on the upcoming ER. But it's not a good time to hold November options :/�
1/1/2015
guest Behold my powwwwwaaaaaa
:tongue:�
1/1/2015
guest Haha, just complained and then Tesla took off again. Oh well at least I'm finally back in the green ($600 in the green, but green nevertheless) for the whole portfolio (solar+TSLA small recovery). Still red on most TSLA options though.�
1/1/2015
guest Where do people see TSLA trading at pre-earnings (say next Friday)? If we close above $170 today, and then have another green candle tomorrow, could we see a rally back into the mid $180s by next friday or the following monday?�
1/1/2015
guest I think best case scenario would be some consolidation around 170$ and then slow climb to earnings...would give us a nice solid base for ER.
UPDATE: but I'm "worried" that once we break 170$ we will shoot up pretty quickly.�
1/1/2015
guest i worry all the time about making too much money�
1/1/2015
guest Drake - Hold on we're going home! I got my eyes on you (TSLA):biggrin:�
1/1/2015
guest I woke up thinking, what would happen if people stopped taking profits every time the stock peaked... are we our own worst enemies? Or I guess to put it more bluntly, at what point are the shorts taking profits at the expense of the longs? not pointing fingers, but just sayin'... then I think to myself, if everyone else is doing it, why shouldn't I? It's a little bit like that old episode of the twilight zone where a couple is presented with a button, if they press the button they get a million dollars but someone, somewhere gets the AX. They eventually push the button, get the money but then the button is taken away (and presumably given to someone else) and they are left to wonder if they might be next. to some extent, gambling is a blood sport.�
1/1/2015
guest Just an update for consideration...
With the stock now at $171 (call at $2.84) on 10/24, all of these are green except the initial set (-19.22%, +2.68%, +2.68%, +40.89%, +19.54%) with the group as a whole being up (5.66%).
I may start resolving them (sell to close) today or I might let them ride some more.�
1/1/2015
guest We regained the 50 day MA but now it is acting as resistence. If we clear this (about 171) its blue sky to the 20da MA (about 180)�
1/1/2015
guest I was talking to a few friends of mine this week who work at Google in the Bay Area. Apparently them and others at Google were chatting about waiting for the Model X and Model E so that everyone does not show up to work in the same type of car (Model S)... Techies will adopt the Model E and Model X (married ones) in droves in the Bay Area and elsewhere. Roughly 85% of my Techie friends want to drive electric cars.�
1/1/2015
guest I have added some Nov plays for TSLA today since im really happy that there has only been 53 cars sold in Norway this months, which is a decrease of 85%. This makes me feel that TSLA will do everything to get a great Q3, as not many cars are in transit. Somewhat speculative, but thats what I think.�
1/1/2015
guest I have heard good arguments for both sides, but I am not sure if Tesla is really gaming the market that way or not. Assuming that it continues to grow, then it could very easily get away with it but I am not betting on it.
Great battle going on over the $170 line. I wonder who will win. I actually did bet on this one and I bet on the longs :smile: Not looking good right now; but I am a patient person and can wait 2 hours to find out.�
1/1/2015
guest Send some of that patience my way lol. Today has been brutal.�
1/1/2015
guest considering all the bombs that got dropped later in the day yesterday, mainly the one from Elon himself about the inflated valuation, it feels like we are on pretty firm ground in the upper 160's to lower 170's, which does not spell disaster to me, like so many folks were foretelling yesterday.�
1/1/2015
guest Too "gambling" for me.�
1/1/2015
guest Man, we are seriously hugging 170 right now. A piece of positive news would definitely be welcomed right now to help break through.�
1/1/2015
guest I cashed out my $170s with a 50% gain in a little less than an hour. Pretty sure it was a mistake, but with only 1.5 hours left till expiration I already made a nice return so I don't want to gamble it away.�
1/1/2015
guest This part I agree with wholeheartedly. Take the win, let go of the risk.�
1/1/2015
guest nice one!�
1/1/2015
guest Buying options on expiration day is gambling, but with really good discipline I think that you can make money. I got lucky this time, but the stock had to move $1 - $1.50 in less than an hour for me to cash out half at 25% gain and the other half at 75% gain.
Right now it looks like I sold the second half at the top and the other half not too far off the top. Which also means I bought not too far from the top. I got lucky this time because I stayed disciplined and did not get greedy.�
1/1/2015
guest Yea, my timing was just too far behind. Barring a significant run up in the last 40 minutes, I'm toast on must the same play.
Just been a brutal period. I've lost everything gained since early August in the last couple weeks (stock and options), the bulk of it in the last few days across something like 8 companies, every one of them particularly crushed today. The only stock in the green in my entire portfolio is CSIQ (well, and TSLA held for a couple years now) and that gave back a bunch today.
Definitely not fun.�
1/1/2015
guest One last run at the 50 day. Let's do this!�
1/1/2015
guest what price is the 50 day at?�
1/1/2015
guest $170.30. We didn't make it. =(�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah this week has been particularly bad for me as well. A combination of rookie mistakes really screwed me over.
The funny thing though is nothing fundamentally has changed about Tesla, there's even been a fair amount of good news that came out this week too. It just happens that the shorts/naysayers/etc have taken the spot light temporarily. I still feel confident about earnings. It will be either a blowout or at least still good. I'm guessing we recover a little next week, as cool heads will prevail.�
1/1/2015
guest I worry about the number of people here trying to day trade TSLA. The company is fundamentally a long-term story. Yes, there was a period this year when pretty much any long strategy brought in $$$. I fear that taught some people to be a little reckless. Short-term TSLA plays at this point are little more than gambling.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry to pick on you RO but...
Didn't we just have a discussion about how some of us are already weary of posts like this?
It's almost to the point where I have to shorten my signature so that I can add a "YMMV/YouManageYourOwnMoney/IfYouGambleWithTheMarketItsOnYou" type stuff. This isn't a child's forum, and if people are treating it as such then they should find iamthecauliflower and have lunch to complain every 20 seconds about how the sky is falling.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, I am long on Tesla and wanted to buy more stock in the last couple days but did not want to sell my solar positions to get extra cash and felt I did not have enough ready cash to make an impact with a straight stock buy so I bought my first (maybe only) options
all green at end of day
170 Nov8 @12.50
170 Jan17 2015 @ 42.00
180 Jan 17 2015 @ 36.00
ONLY green in my accounts
PS. I have my big boy pants on and realize I could lose part or all of this money
(holding strong/long with TSLA and solar)�
1/1/2015
guest
Those are some pricey options my friend. But on the positive side as long as 170 holds you should be profitable.�
1/1/2015
guest This is my sentiment exactly. I don't plan on buying right here, as I made some key purchases in teh past 3 days that makes me feel overloaded with tesla (and I'd only buy more on a move below 16). However, if the hardest they can push is the the first support level, then we're looking good. I see good times in the future late next week for tesla, give it a day or two of going up a dollar at a time next week, and then we'll start to see capitulation on some shorts.�
1/1/2015
guest Thought the LEAPS were actually a good 'deal' with the idea that TSLA will be well over $200 in the next year. The Nov 8th are just so I can see what will happen with the 3rdQ ER on the 5th.�
1/1/2015
guest i thought we were weary of posts complaining about people with posts like that or is it people complaining about people complaing about posts like that? of course we could have just ignored it and there would be one post to ignore instead of three�
1/1/2015
guest Haha, or four.�
1/1/2015
guest I tend to post a lot of cautionary stuff too, but this is the "chat" thread so I think the standards are a bit looser than in the serious "short term" thread.
Besides, I often see posts that appear to be despairing, so I try to put some balance back in with my perspective.�
1/1/2015
guest There are lots of people that are not day trading TSLA. Funny thing is that they don't frequent the Short Term TSLA Investor thread.�
1/1/2015
guest How does one determine if those are "pricey" or not? I'm curious as to how one values options.
Also, as it appears that many of the readers here are just selling the options before they expire, does the original "price" matter much, or is it more about how close/far the option tracks movements in TSLA?�
1/1/2015
guest Well I guess pricey is a relative term. A single option for $4200 is pricey for my portfolio but probably not for his. Also the IV is pretty high right now so all options are on the pricey side compared to if the stock wasn't all over the place.
And the original price does matter as its what you're paying for the contract. Whatever the price is when you sell before expiration dictates how much money you get or lose.�
1/1/2015
guest Woof...These are my first, and possibly last, options. My beginners strategy was that I wanted a small option play for earnings as I suspect we have a good ER on the 5th I hope the stock rises into at least the 185 range and I may make a couple bucks. The Jan17, 2015 did not seem pricey to me as I firmly believe before I start really getting 'time decay' in late 2004 that we will see $230-240 (hopefully after Q1 earnings is my plan) and I will make a couple bucks there. If not, TSLA has been good to me and I won't lose sleep if I sell them at a loss.
Where in Mass are you... I grew up in Chelmsford/Lowell area and still have family there.�
1/1/2015
guest It's become pretty clear to me I picked the precisely ultimate wrong moment in time to use TSLA options. I started, almost to the day (Oct 1st on a "dip" from the Sept 30th ATH), when TSLA went flat and into decline and broke its many months long upward trend. Yay me.
I also bought TSLA originally, almost literally to the minute, before TSLA had a serious crash back when 2 execs left the company a couple years ago.
Yay me again, fortunately that recovered quickly as as pure stock I was holding for years it mattered little. Still, my ability to hit exactly the wrong moment in time to buy is just scary. If I'd bought just the next day, not even at the knife edge drop, I'd have quite a bit more money now.
At this point, I'm just praying the Q3 earnings gets me to break even and I'll probably never play TSLA options again (aside from LEAPS, but those are quite different).�
1/1/2015
guest I'm cheap. Any option over ~5% of the strike price is "pricey". It feels like you're basically more on the path toward just buying the stock rather than an option.
- - - Updated - - -
If you're limiting yourself to CALLs rather than CALLs and PUTs, that might be the issue.
Buying a PUT right before a drop is gold.
�
1/1/2015
guest Well, if I'd thought the stock (well, all my stocks) were going to drop, I'd have bought puts.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry, I should have quoted a smaller portion. The part that motivated me to reply was "I picked the precisely ultimate wrong moment in time to use TSLA options." This part I disagreed with.
The "ultimate wrong moment" to use options (independent of strategy) is either (a) when the stock price has essentially zero volatility for an extended period (no price motion) or (b) when the stock price has "significant" volatility for an extended period. (a) is bad for the option buyer. (b) can be bad for the option seller, depending on whether his/her strategy is +/- relative to the specific volatility.�
1/1/2015
guest Fine, seems pedantic. How about, I picked the precise moment in time when TSLA decided to change it's months long behavior.�
1/1/2015
guest Please announce a day in advance what TSLA investment decisions you will be making moving forward so that we may all profit from them!:wink:
Yeah...Like I always get the timing and direction correct......NOT�
1/1/2015
guest Not sure I agree with the characterization ("change its months long behavior") but now I understood your point better. Thanks for the clarification.�
1/1/2015
guest It seems the long term options are touted as a long term share replacement strategy...a means to control more shares with less money. 2015 is a ways away, plenty of time to see a profit. If by 2015 TSLA isn't above $170 (barring a stock split), we're all in trouble.
North Shore, not far from Chelmsford. Peak Foliage was last week--love the autumns here.�
1/1/2015
guest Yea, that was my plan when I bought LEAPS. I sold TSLA, bought about 20% more in Jan2015 LEAPS with a break even point around $195, so pretty conservative. With the remaining money after converting to LEAPS I've been buying solar and options.
Sadly, that cunning plan is not playing out well. Options have been hammered, TSLA particularly, but even almost all the solar is underwater after the last couple weeks. The most concerning right now are the Nov 1 TSLA175s I got back when we "dipped" near $180. Historically, at the time, it seemed very unlikely it'd be a big loss since they were ITM at purchase, but right now it's looking at a very possible 100% loss with only 5 days left.
If you're completely tied into full stock and want to play short term while not losing all the long term, LEAPS seem useful for that. I'm wishing I hadn't, but that's not the fault of the LEAPS.�
1/1/2015
guest Ckessel, there's something about George Soros that I think will help you and everyone else in the trading game. He is a billionaire for good reasons and personally, I think he is actually richer than Warren Buffett after having to meet with one of his team on his site. He is more of the private billionaire who doesn't broadcast his total wealth.
The thing about his trading is this. He says he trades based on his gut feelings. Now that might sound laughable at first, but most people miss the sentence that comes afterward. (Because nowadays journalists just takes the first sentence and say "Gotcha"). He actually goes into detailed explanation on how it works.
There are very distinct physiological trait that is associated with two of his most powerful emotions: Greed and fear. They manifest in pains at different part of his body so he knows exactly the moment he gets too greedy and too fearful. Sell on greed and buy on fear.
I believe that it took him several year to develop and hone those responses, but it is what I did as well.�
1/1/2015
guest Some good discussion happening over the past 24 hours over at the Julian Cox Expert Analysis thread. Quite educational and entertaining. Glad all the experts are chiming in.
In light of the debate, Cash on hand and change vs prior quarter is a crucial KPI, at least more important than I previously understood.�
1/1/2015
guest So what do people think, are we setting up for a rough Monday in the marekt?�
1/1/2015
guest I don't see any reason for it to be rough, but also nothing to put it up for a rally. I think someone mentioned a PT reiteration of $200 in the other Short Term thread, so maybe that will give us a little boost.�
1/1/2015
guest Well I used the downbeating to roll my Nov $190's to Nov $170's. Yes, it reduces my delta somewhat both because the contract amount was halved (from 6 to 3), but the delta per contract is ~1.5x higher and the money that will bring it to green is far far lower. Previously I needed $199 for break even, now I need $188. I feel a lot safer going into earnings with this requirement. And if we do recover from this low, then I will have it easier to hedge as well.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, it ended up being rough, crashing hard right out of the gate on a day when again the market is up.
I'd sold 50% of my stock to buy various options about a month ago. I've bought multiple times, averaging down, always buying ITM. By buying ITM and over time, I was intentionally trying to minimize the odds of a huge loss since the money from that 50% is my permanent "shorter term" trade pool. If its gone, that's it for me. I hadn't really intended to have it all committed, but every dip was supposedly a "buying" opportunity. Each time I thought "Well, that's why I created this pool, to take advantage of buying opportunities."
It's hard not be dejected. In hindsight, I had too much in various Nov options rather than scattered over other time periods, but I was legitimately trying to be conservative with ITM options and averaging down. Unless we hit the 190s after earnings I'll have lost the vast bulk of that 50% I cashed out. Even at the 190s, I'll have a loss just because of options that expired completely worthless before earnings.
What's the saying, if I can't serve as an example, at least I can be a warning?�
1/1/2015
guest ckessel I'm in essentially the same boat you're in. My timing with trying options for TSLA could not have been any worse lol. My biggest mistake was selling calls at a loss to buy puts to cover the govt shutdown debacle. The stock ended up not falling any more after the point I bought them and they expired worthless. Between TSLA and solar stocks I'm sitting at a 50% loss right now. My current TSLA options have any expiration of Jan '14, so I technically have some time to recover but if we don't have a good ER that won't matter.
I chock it up as rookie mistakes. Losses suck, but I definitely learned my lessons and hopefully can perform better going forward.�
1/1/2015
guest I bought DITM calls (165) which are currently OTM - this extended downturn is definitely throwing a wrench into my trading strategy. Like you, I keep buying more (just bought some at 163) to lower the point at which I break even to 176. At some point, the stock needs to actually go up though.�
1/1/2015
guest Sorry for your bad timing/luck guys. It's good you've been posting
About it however, we don't want everyone thinking it's as easy as Kevin made it seem. I've done some small option play recently with a small fraction of my account and was lucky to break even, learned a lot however. I would recommend working your way into it with a smaller percentage, the education is much cheaper that way.�
1/1/2015
guest Im in the same boat as others here but for newbies wanting to get into options the best thing you can do is get the furthest ones out as possible. (unless you can predict the short term chaos)�
1/1/2015
guest I'm a member of the dubious first-time-option-buyer-in-October club. First I thought we'd get a decent bounce back off the first fire. I also bought a Nov 16 205 option several weeks ago. Quite a time I picked to venture into margin-land, as well. At least my options were about 1-2% of my stock value.�
1/1/2015
guest My Q3 trades are not looking so good at the moment either. My saving grace is that I went with Dec '21 Calls versus the November Calls. More time to recover if needed.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, another near record day of losses. It was a record in percentage terms of what I had left (-17%), though not in absolute terms. Both TSLA and solar tanked heavily. I'm down somewhere in the 75-80% range on non-LEAP, non-stock (so, all solar/TSLA options expiring Oct through Jan) in the last 4 weeks, most of it in the last week. I'd like to reallocate from something doing well to buy one of the bargain solars, but every single solar took a bath so I really don't have a single set of options that's doing well.
The good news is I won't have to worry about short term trading pretty soon because I won't have anything to trade with :redface: (leaving stock and LEAPS alone)�
1/1/2015
guest Any clue whats behind the recent bashing of all solar stocks ? I have not found a good reason behind it and picked up some JASO on friday only to see it drop a lot again today.�
1/1/2015
guest probably best to ask in the correct thread
the answer is there is no reason.�
1/1/2015
guest Hey kessel, I hear you loud and clear. I'm taking large losses (not as large as yours) and i'm considering hedging my position but I always feel like it's too late now. The time to hedge would have been when it looked like it was going up two trading days ago.�
1/1/2015
guest December '21's! Where did you get those!? :tongue:�
1/1/2015
guest
I feel you and have been here before with TSLA ... which I why I decided to only play longer term options ... then somehow I got about 35 percent of my position in with short term options. I still am expecting a quarter that saves the majority of my short term holdings (Nov calls mostly around 200 and after earnings) but I am not as confident as I was at the beginning of all of this.�
1/1/2015
guest It looks like the 1st question of today is....will $160 hold?�
1/1/2015
guest lol never again am I doing these options. Nov 200's are basically worthless to me�
1/1/2015
guest Just fell right through 160, no resistance what-so-ever!�
1/1/2015
guest And the answer is ....... No.�
1/1/2015
guest 160 will not hold, busted right on through. so new question: how low will we go?�
1/1/2015
guest Glad I bought some Nov 1st $150 puts yesterday. Only a couple but it's soothing the pain. Hard part is to decide when to sell them. Ideally I should hold them until Friday as Insurance and hopefully they expire worthless, but I'm tempted to sell today while they're up 100%.�
1/1/2015
guest I can't tell if this is a move with volume. Google shows 1.6M shares traded in the first half hour while Yahoo shows 2.9M shares traded so far.�
1/1/2015
guest Probably lower due to general market tanking. It looks like nothing specific about TSLA that's causing harm. I presume that it's tanking a lot because it's definitely over valued according to the market and investors are just bailing out. I'm going to guess we might hold $150s because TSLA is almost near where it was with Q2 earnings.�
1/1/2015
guest Volume is 3.7M right now.�
1/1/2015
guest Wow I'm glad I exited all my TSLA calls yesterday when that fire news first came out. Finally my gut feeling paid off�
1/1/2015
guest
Exactly. At this point I highly doubt that we will enter Q3 earnings lower than where we were after Q2 earnings.�
1/1/2015
guest Guys - Weak Long Disease is contagious. Check yourself before you wreck yourself.�
1/1/2015
guest lol. Seriously.�
1/1/2015
guest 161?�
1/1/2015
guest My news feed is showing several articles blaming the falling share price on the Mexico fire. Any idea if this is true? Or is the media just being gleefully clueless?�
1/1/2015
guest I'm still bullish on the stock long term, holding those (now stupidly OTM) calls were just not worth the stress they were causing me at the moment. Nobody should in any way mirror my decision, as it was for my own mental health. In doing so I locked in whatever losses I had accumulated over the last couple weeks, but now I can go into the ER with a clearer head.�
1/1/2015
guest Boy am I glad that I got rid of those Dec $195 puts I was short on�
1/1/2015
guest
I saw headlines about the fire on my stock app on my iPhone so yes, it seems the mainstream media has picked up on it. Let's be honest, the media has been clueless for way too long.
I read the first report about the accident and to me it was the severity of the crash, it hit a wall and a tree very hard, that caused the fire and nothing about the car itself. On top of that, the driver walked away from it unscathed and asking Tesla sending him a new Model S immediately.�
1/1/2015
guest Dare I contemplate green for the day? :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest Talk of these fires is so irritating its hard to listen to, not amongst those here who are trying to figure our stock movement, but from the ignorant and shorts who can't possibly belie it's an issue but need to make it one to save themselves. If your long TSLA no reason to panic. I'm bummed as I finally have my wife convinced to buy our model S if tsla cracks 190 by selling a small portion, now I may have to wait a bit longer but other than that no worries.�
1/1/2015
guest Like a breath of fresh air I saw green for a moment�
1/1/2015
guest never say die. no matter where it finishes, it was an impressive bounce back.
$10 off the bottom would be nice�
1/1/2015
guest haha - Government Says U.S. Loss On GM Bailout Could Hit $10 Bilion GM TM - Investors.com
�
1/1/2015
guest They should have just given the 10B to Tesla and they'd have a GM replacement soon enough�
1/1/2015
guest I took a leap of faith and picked up some weekly 175's near the bottom. A whopping 1% of my portfolio's worth, but some green is better than no green. Went with weeklies as the Nov 16th's are toting around that huge ER premium.�
1/1/2015
guest Nice to see TSLA stop bleeding, though it really doesn't help me much at this point other than make my LEAPS look less bad. My shorter term items are still have to reach the ~175 and ~180 just to avoid a total loss. Break even is another ~5% beyond those. I suppose every inch makes it at least a possibility, which is better than not.�
1/1/2015
guest I guess it depends how tight your calls are. If they are weeklies, then good luck with that (not impossible though, some serious good news leaks and TSLA might rally $20 in an hour i.e. earnings draft leaks like GOOG had a couple of quarters back). If they are post ER, then anything's possible and I wouldn't write them off yet.�
1/1/2015
guest I wanted to just throw out an idea while i'm at work. I posted over in that poll column about how we may end up being the victims of confirmation bias.
I was wondering if anyone would want to start up a threat that is a "here is why tesla is overvalued" thread, bringing legitimate or semi-legitimate reasons that shorts could use against tesla and then we as a group could then discuss whether they will truly have an impact.�
1/1/2015
guest I think this might be a good idea, but I don't have the finance background to really contribute much.
At this stage of Tesla's growth, I don't think it will be easy to give the company any definitive valuation. There are too many variables at play, and the usual measures of profitability don't apply to a company that spends all its earnings on capital improvements and R&D.
Right now my faith in TSLA is purely based on my research of the technology and more importantly, the leadership talent. I have no clue what the company is worth, now or 10 years from now. All I know is that Tesla builds something worth buying, has great technology, and a team that is driven to make good on execution of plans.�
1/1/2015
guest
Great point Mario. Ironic considering GM was well on their way to building the US's first mass-market EV.
We can only hope that this is a lesson to put money like that into organizations that bring revolutionary products to market instead of supporting the status quo.�
1/1/2015
guest Ding! Your fighting an uphill battle if you want to justify tesla's stock price based on the usual "fundamentals". The bears can make their comparisons but in the end neither can predict the future. I bought TSLA because I believe in the technology is the direction we are heading. I'm no expert on the numbers either, but I read every article plus comments section, no way we as a group can tear down tsla in more ways than have already been attempted. I personally would rather the haters don't see us discussing it on these forums, they will only use it against tsla and soon enough they will be linking the thread to their articles and comments. No thanks.�
1/1/2015
guest �
1/1/2015
guest 'Morning everyone!
The last ten days have been the most frustrating days I can recall! I never was so busy at work and didn't have time to look, think and act on what happened since last monday when it started to tank...
The result as well is I couldn't benefit of the dip to buy more or to average down what was becomoing a losing positions (Calls) and I could only watch it from time to time, red all over the place...and I had to get rid of some oct calls at a pretty big loss last week. Anyway, that's it. Not the first one, not the last one.
So now I was wondering what to do: I have Nov Calls, 170, 16th of nov., losing 45%.... among some others. What's the best course of action: leave them and wait for a possible rebound this week, or sell at loss, and re-invest?
Generally, what about IV till ER? And shortly after ER?
I learnt a few lessons again about greed, timing...�
1/1/2015
guest I would probably watch what happens today. The big news on Panasonic deal sent out as a press release by Tesla a couple of hours ago should be a very positive catalyst and general market seems green today (Asia up 2%, EU up 0.7% already, pre-market US futures up) so it's likely that today we'll see some kind of rally. How much is unsure. Depending how expensively you bought those $170's I'd feel relatively safe with them. They are not that far OTM, that we might not even put them ITM today and if the Q3 ER is positive, then getting them to break even or bring profit shouldn't be hard. For people holding $190-$210 calls I'd be more worried, but holding $170 should not be an issue (unless you bought them for $30). IV wise the peak of IV will be on 5th of November 1 second before market close
I myself am holding Nov 16th $170's, Dec $175, $180 calls and March $180 and January 2015 $190 calls. And at the moment even though I'm about 20% in the red with my portfolio I feel relatively safe with the news this morning. I do plan to hedge the November calls at least most of them for risk-free spreads if I can get $190-$200 range calls for the same price, but the December and later ones I think I'll run naked through Q3 ER.�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks Mario!
I will wait a bit and hope for a rallye today and untill friday.
Though I have little hopes. It's been green for almost half an hour and then red again
I had bought those 170 for +/- 19$, not all hope is lost of course
I better go outside and garden a bit i.o. looking at this bloodbath!�
1/1/2015
guest So, I've been wondering about the TSLA chassis for a while and am wondering about its strength after the two fire accidents. I want to see something similar to "will it blend" but with tesla chassis, but the twist is to turn it into "will it blow" the main premise is to check whether or not the battery pack can withstand a landmine.
Hopefully I can get a destroyed chassis for cheap and blow it up. Anyone else interested In this?�
1/1/2015
guest Anybody looking for some divertissement?
Here is a new interview with EM from german television ZDF:
Verpasste Zukunft
first video is about EVs in Germany in general (in German language), second video is the interview (in english).
Any ideas where in Germany the video was recorded?
Maybe it's time again for a good glas of italien red wine?
Good luck to all.
Regards from Germany.�
1/1/2015
guest Great video. Lots of good current information. Thank you!
We are now dependent on our neighbors to deliver our news since our browsers, search engines and internet providers push us only local information and topics. Big frustration!
Appreciate the assistance!�
1/1/2015
guest Some say the Model S self-regenerates in hiding after an attack, and its adamantium skeleton cannot be destroyed, only temporarily disabled, so it can live to fight for truth and justice another day.�
1/1/2015
guest Note that only charlatans call this process "recharging".�
1/1/2015
guest I sold a long-term put. Seems I can get a little more bullish in my positions and also earn some premium on the options which seems to be pretty high right now. It is crazy because this is a Jan 2015 pt with a 160 strike. I sold it for $43. The breakeven is $117. Anyone buying these thinks TSLA will be under $100 by 2015. To me that seems pretty unlikely so I'm happy to take their money.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm cross pollinating (This is quoted from the 2nd fire effect thread) as I think this is the right bin;
I'm in that boat. It's been a few weeks of stormy weather and I've taken some good sized losses on Options. However, when I look at my overall portfolio - it's still up by a very healthy margin, and I really worked to convince myself this week, each day, that although the stock price never does what I want, I'm still sitting on massive paper profits as a result of believing in the fundamentals of TSLA since we first became acquainted. The amount I am up (while nearly halfed) was enough just a few month ago to make me feel pretty good about myself and Tesla. A lot of that was bad options plays, but I just consider it the cost of education.
As many have pointed out, the fundamentals have not changed. If anything, they are stronger than ever. We're finally getting our first taste of the actual Euro/Asia demand and, today's battery announcement confirms what we've been telling each other for months. I'm quietly jubilant that there is a tsunami of good news that is quietly brewing. As one poster pointed out, Elon's pre Q1 tweet was disregarded by many, and the fact that this battery announcement is getting similar treatment is totally confounding me. This is huge, it validates what we've all been saying for so long. The fires have been annoying, but we all knew that any chink in Tesla's armour would cause a tumble. I'm not surprised, I just wish I had bought some puts at $194.50.
I have no idea what Q3 will actually bring, but so far the signs are looking good. I've learned a lot about investing since Q1, and as much as I want to put my money where my mouth is, I'm sticking to the same strategy I had last month, Nov 200's and common holdings. More leverage may yield more gain, but I'm not sophisticated enough to really know what I'm doing. I could get this totally wrong, and while that will hurt, it will not even come close to breaking me. Anything I've gotten from TSLA so far has been a gift via the insight of this board.
I'd honestly be happy if I never made a cent off Tesla. Just to hear that they are taking on the world and succeeding is awesome.�
1/1/2015
guest I am tempted to sell 10 of those....nice find.�
1/1/2015
guest I think you're overreading. When I buy puts or calls (so far at least), I'm never letting them ride 'til expiration.
Also, let's look at your specific example in another light. Jan 2015. That's roughly 14 months, or $3.07 per month.
So (1) if you don't think that TSLA will be below $160 on any monthly expiration day between now Jan 2015 and (2) you think you can sell a monthly put for at least $3.08 sometime each month... then you're better off selling 14 separate puts instead of the single long put.
Take today for example. The 160 puts for November are:
- Nov 01 @ $3.45
- Nov 08 @ 11.22
- Nov 16 @ 12.78
- Nov 22 @ 13.53
- Nov 29 @ 13.79
Even Nov 01 puts (only 2 days away!) are more profitable per month than the Jan '15 put. And the other 4 choices are 3-4x more profitable.�
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