1/1/2015
guest It's so beatiful!
But in the past it used to be accompanied by at 15-20% bump in the aftermarket, not 10% down... Meh.�
1/1/2015
guest I don't understand... why is there a negative response to the ER?�
1/1/2015
guest Missing 2014 guidance and low Q4 guidance of $0.12 EPS while consensus was $0.2. Yet the consensus didn't take into account the data in the shareholder letter that well explains it so now it's up to the idiots actually reading it.
- - - Updated - - -
So, what do I do with the third bottle of champagne... It looks not like a celebration is in order sadly.�
1/1/2015
guest Time to upgrade to whiskey and drink to your (all of ours) sorrows
(stock tanking)�
1/1/2015
guest Here we go.......CC starting...... the whiskey will be flowing later one way or the other....�
1/1/2015
guest Dang, this CEO is good about protecting shareholders. He just straight forward stated that they're still production constrained, mainly the battery cells.�
1/1/2015
guest If only the stock had reacted to thatAlso, the cell constraints are the main ones and the way to alleviate this is their panasonic deal.
�
1/1/2015
guest I think after all the questions are asked and analysts clear up confusions later or tomorrow, the stock can go back up. Right now, there are so many negative articles claiming that TSLA has finally failed for this quarter.
I think that investors who bailed out and sent the stock down have overreacted.�
1/1/2015
guest So Elon confirms that Gen-III styling will be done in 2014 as they'll be done with the Model X. That's good.�
1/1/2015
guest Hell of a buying opportunity for us longs. I feel they will announce the Samung/ LG battery deal next quarter. If we end the year around $175/share I will be happy. Either way, man what a rocket ride of a 2013 it has been with TSLA!�
1/1/2015
guest I'm looking at the liveblog and Elon apparently just said that he sees North American demand at 20K. I'm sure he said 40K before...
Also: 10K for Europe, not just for Germany as reported before.�
1/1/2015
guest It looks like TSLA's future hinges on ramped up production and still hasn't changed for a while. Demand is still high. So it looks like TSLA isn't going down hill like crazy as all have claimed by the pessimists.�
1/1/2015
guest backing off the SuperCharger trip..... Guess the guys in the middle of the country are not going to be up and running by Xmas.�
1/1/2015
guest Winter trip was a bad idea anyway.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, crap. I should have trusted my gut and sold today and taken the ~50% loss on my TSLA options. 30% of my portfolio just went up in smoke with this market response. And with the stock drop, I'll probably have to bail out on some of my solars at a loss to get rid of my margin balance. Was going to do that with TSLA after the earnings call, even with some loss, since it seemed all but impossible a strike price of 175 wouldn't even be ITM when I bought the options, but this market response is worse than I figured for even the pessimistic case. We're back down to post-Q2 results levels just in after-market.�
1/1/2015
guest So... exit strategy planning for all Nov/Dec options holders. Considering the CC is over and there were hints for 2014 guidance being good, but also that there is supply constraint on batteries (even though they did mention that the 2014 supply would be delivered and they're confident in it). I doubt the stock price will recover to >$180 in the next 10 days until November options expire. It'll be hard to see $170 even. Or do others think differently? I guess sell at market open for most calls? Or do people think that there's a chance for a run up on the gigafactory news?�
1/1/2015
guest All the articles I"ve seen quote GAAP earnings as lower than expected. They are missing two key points:
1) GM's a way higher than traditional car manufacturers
2) Tesla lease is not a traditional lease. It is really a loan with a buy back guarantee, meaning, Tesla gets all the money upfront, so they appropriately include it in their non-GAAP reporting, but none of the media is focusing on this.�
1/1/2015
guest I've got a bunch of Novembers, between 170-200. I've also got LEAPS, but those will stay put.
Plan for tomorrow is probably offload all of my calls for salvage value. I'd like to think the 170's might have some recovery, but I just don't know. I will be taking a huge hit, but in the grand scheme I won't be a whole lot worse off than I was with most of my calls as of last week. Like ckessel, I'm probably down 30% or so. No plan to touch common unless I have to. At least I get some short term capital losses out of this. :crying:�
1/1/2015
guest My Novs (between 170-200) won't be worth enough to bother selling tomorrow, so I'm gonna hold them for a couple weeks for if we get another day or two like yesterday. Probly jump in on a few LEAPS tomorrow with this bargain price, maybe do a stock replacement or something.�
1/1/2015
guest What happened to Google, sank in AH, but was up the next day?
Any chance that happening with TSLA?�
1/1/2015
guest Exactly, I don't see the point in selling your calls at the absolute lowest. Even if the chance of them regaining value is very low, it's still a possiblity.
I'll admit probably not likely. I will say my though my opinion of Tesla has only gotten better. They continue to work hard at achieving what almost seems impossible, the product is still amazing, demand is still strong, and the long term still looks promising. Thats about all you could ask for from them. Maybe more people will realize this and still feel confident in buying now.�
1/1/2015
guest Model S has never been projected to 40k in NA by anyone credible as far as I know. S platform on the other hand might get there (Model S + Model X). Elon was clearly talking about just the Model S when he mentioned 20k+.�
1/1/2015
guest Goodness gracious. It's a BEAT and they grow while generating cash. Smart money would realize this�
1/1/2015
guest high demand, production constrained, high gross margins and superior product. I'll be looking at the LEAPS tomorrow.�
1/1/2015
guest As a consolation to longs licking their wounds. I posted the analysis below in q3 Results thread, but thought it may be useful here (and maybe I can get the spacing right this time):
I think the balance sheet pretty much confirms that 1000 cars were produced, but in-transit on their way to delivery in Europe at quarter end.
Inventory went from $254.89M at end of Q2 to $347.54Mat end of Q3. That is $93M inventory build quarter to quarter.
During Q2, which involved production ramp-up, Inventory only increased from $237.62M at Q1 end. Assuming Q3 non-finished goods inventory build rate of about $20M. That leaves $70M in finished inventory build for Q3. Which translates into slightly less than 1,000 cars. (Finished goods are kept on the balance sheet Inventory section at Cost of Goods Sold value)
Assuming Cost of Goods Sold of $75K per Model S.
70M/75K = 933 cars�
1/1/2015
guest I may be about the only person that's lost money on TSLA over the last 5 months. Because I started converting TSLA shares to various TSLA option plays about a month ago, my portfolio is worth less than it was 5 months ago. And it's money that's pure gone. The options have, or will, evaporate with zero value whereas stock might eventually recover. It also means very little left to reinvest in a future set of options.�
1/1/2015
guest You're acting like tomorrow is a foregone conclusion. Tesla has the ability to surprise us, so don't give up all hope yet, especially when there's nothing you can do overnight. Just hope that we see a rebound off of 158 hard and then upward movement.�
1/1/2015
guest You are most certainly not the only person to lose big in the short term. If the after-hours pricing holds (which it may or may not), I am significantly net negative on my personal TSLA options plays and am negative on some more recent "dip-buying" stock purchases. Lessons learned I suppose -- you can't win every day against a combination of stupidity and determined, vested, powerful enemies. I mean OPEC and the entire ICE auto industry isn't just going to roll over and die quietly, are they? Since they can't compete with a credible product, they will resort to other means. Shorting, propaganda, paid FUD, deliberate manipulation. All par for the course.
However, in the larger fund pool I help manage I bought thousands of TSLA common shares at $43.60, and that's obviously not a loss.
I'm leaving the stock right where it is. This is a $300-$500+ stock post GenIII. That's not in the immediate future, but it's not forever, either.�
1/1/2015
guest
^--- what he said ..�
1/1/2015
guest My options are at strikes of 175 and 180, paid a premium of about $18 on each a few weeks ago. The stock would need to see a $25+ increase from the after-market low just to have salvage value. Those are the bulk of the last 5 months profit.
I knew Q3 might not get a great reaction, but at the time I bought the options they were ~$10 ITM. I figured even a lackluster Q3 would mean the stock ran flat and I'd lose ~50%. Ah well, nothing I can do, but man, it hurts to throw away the profits from one of the greatest stock runs in a long time.
Edit: Obviously lots of other people are taking a huge beating on TSLA options, I wasn't trying to claim the prize there�
1/1/2015
guest I feel for you guys that were heavy in options. I was tempted but my gut told me Q3 wasn't going to be like the last 2. I still thought the report would be good enough and with the closing price today I thought 190 was in the cards, I was buying my Model S if it reached that but now it will have to wait. Sitting tight with just shares, I think this is a good time to buy but I'm out of cash. I think the ER was good, just as most here expected. I think tomorrow we shall see it hold flat or recover some.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm sorry ckessel....but investing such a big part of your portfolio in a very speculative and short term play was a BIG mistake. The 10$ in the money options definitely didn't offer you any kind of protection and actually just INCREASED your risk substantially. Consider yourself lucky that you lost profits and are not sitting on a huge loss right now. I don't want to sound condescending but it's easy when reading on those forums to get carried away by hearing of other people's fortunes, but one must ALWAYS remember to remain within the boundaries that their risk tolerance/skills dictate.
I'm also deeply in red if TSLA drops tomorrow (still significantly profitable overall).....but I've only allocated a small part of my portfolio to this play....and even then...I was somewhat hedged (only bull call spreads which will slightly dampen my losses). I won't consider them worthless until I see the market tank during regular hours tomorrow. AH has a huge echo chamber in which small fears can become amplified irrationally. The smart money might look at today's earnings and see the real story behind the (let's admit it) sub-par presentation.�
1/1/2015
guest Can you elaborate on that? OTM's are considered riskier, from what I understand, and consequently have higher potential return. ITM is the opposite and you can buy incredibly deep ITM's for basically the equivalent cost of stock. I'm not sure how ITM INCREASES risk.
As for a BIG mistake, well, hindsight and all
Well, that's not luck. That was by intention.�
1/1/2015
guest I think what you saw in after hours was stock manipulation. Very few shares traded and it was driven down on purpose. This is not a reaction from the 3 quarter report just someone trying to create a panic sell first thing tomorrow when the market opens.�
1/1/2015
guest Very suspicious to me. I didn't see it drop a few dollars at a time, it was at $160 a minute or two after 4 Eastern time, before I could even see the report.�
1/1/2015
guest 4+ million shares AH's is considered small volume? I know this isn't a typical day, and I can't remember what the trading was AH last quarter, but it seems like there is 50-100k AH on a typical day? Computers got us today, grabbed that report within milliseconds and made their move. This may have caused a cascade of limit orders until the stock finally stabilized in the 150's.�
1/1/2015
guest I think this is the most rational reason for the drop. People seem to want to throw around the manipulation conspiracy theories quite a bit around here.�
1/1/2015
guest Consider 1 option 10$ ITM vs. 1 option ATM: while the chances of the ITM option expiring WORTHLESS are lower you will need to pay those 10 extra dollars as extra premium (on top of the time value) which will then be at risk of being lost! In the case of the ATM option you only risk losing the time value included in the premium.
this is true IF you buy INCREDIBLY deep ITM......10$ is definitely NOT deep ITM (buying TSLA options for 100$ might be considered deep ITM....). You will be risking more with no protection at all. But then again deep ITM options only give you a very slight leverage effect (meaning you need less capital than buying stocks directly) while coming with a bunch of other side effects which I will not elaborate here. So it's generally not a strategy I like.
We (both you and I) took a gamble, and we (probably?) lost. That happens when one gambles.... I just hope next time we will both learn how to gamble better and, hopefully, win that one :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest And if a company goes bankrupt, stock is worthless.
I guess we'll fundamentally disagree. It's a steady ramp from way deep ITM to way deep OTM on risk. That's what underpins the pricing for the options. To suggest deep ITM is low risk, then high risk partially ITM, then lower risk again at ATM, then higher again as you go OTM...that's simply wrong.�
1/1/2015
guest Do most people have stop loss orders during extended hours as well, though?�
1/1/2015
guest
You can only do limit orders AH, not market. Correct me if I'm wrong but that is how it is on Scottrade. In today's situation, if you didn't have a limit order set as soon as you were allowed to AH, the price fell so fast you would not have time to input it before it was already down $15.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, works for me guys. Sorry for the bullish option players although it ain't over yet. Back in August I sold some covered calls it looks like I have a good shot at not only keeping that equity position but also pocketing the risk premium. I was doubting that when the stock was $195 but here we are. If things go down enough the next few days I might even be buying some June calls. I think the fun will be back we just have to be patient.�
1/1/2015
guest Risk of ending out of the money clearly increases (although not linearly at all) as you move from ITM to OTM....but the risk of your option strategy is completely different depending on so many different factors.
Consider this (extremely) simplified example: let's say 1 weekly ATM option costs 2$ (time value) while 1 10$ ITM option costs 12$ (10$ intrinsic+2$ time value). If stock expires 2$ below where it is now you will have lost 2$ in one case an 4$ in the other. Percentage wise the loss for the ITM option is much lower (you lost 100% of the ATM option)....but in absolute terms the story is much different.... and if the stock went down 10 dollars in one case you lost 2$ while in the other you have 12 full dollars to loose....much more risk for the same potential reward.
But there are different option threads around TMC where this topic would be addressed better (and has probably already been covered). This conversation isn't helping any of the other guys.�
1/1/2015
guest Gtoffo, the problem is that you are assuming people would buy the same number of contracts at different strikes, rather than spending the same amount. If one spends a fixed amount, which is how nearly everyone will make their decisions anyway, then more itm = less risk.
It's like saying Priceline has more to lose than Apple, because their share price is higher. That's just not how it works.�
1/1/2015
guest The beauty of options is it can work (almost) however you want it to work :wink: The bottom line is, he could have had a similar/better return profile with less capital and less risk by investing more wisely. I'm just trying to give him some advise for the future... he's free to ignore it!
Can we go back to our regular group hug? I'm afraid we all need it.......
How are people coping with the probable BIG drop?�
1/1/2015
guest For sure need it
However I have ca 12k$ in November + December options and hedged for ca 3.4k$ yesterday and monday so my max loss is ca 8.6k$ or ca 25% of portfolio. I have not decided what is the best course. Should I sell at market open the November $170's hoping for a 30-40% residual value or should I hold on hoping for a rally later this week/next week. I'm not certain it will happen. I might hold on for the first hour to see what happens. Over half of the risk is in December calls at $175, those I think will retain some value throughout today so it's likely I'll hold on to those to see where we go. If we start dropping I'll offload them most likely and just consider it a loss and take the money I took out for possible plays into Q4 and long term. But it hurts. So much about my B-day present from TSLA :/�
1/1/2015
guest I'M heavy on margin also so I'll be probably getting a call from my broker today..... will be forced to sell something (not sure if I'll be selling TSLA though...). It would be amazing if we could open with a loss of less than 5%...that might keep us floating and not just sinking all the way down....�
1/1/2015
guest The IV will crunch from 98% to ca 60% within hours. That alone will remove 40-50% of the options price. Then the $20 move down will remove most of the rest. I'd be surprised if the Nov $170 calls would be worth more than $2-3 a pop. The december ones might survive a bit better as their IV was ca 65%, which will not crunch that hard, maybe drop 10% so there it's mostly the stock price drop that will kill them from $16.5 to say $6 or so. That's one of the reasons I'm going to likely keep them around a bit to see where the stock goes, but I have hard time thinking what to do with the November options. Sell 1-2 at market open and keep 1-2 running to see how it goes...�
1/1/2015
guest Yeah not an easy day... I might hold on to my spreads.... most of them have the lower leg at 175$ which might still be doable if we recover. Some are 190+$ and will just be a complete writeoff I'm afraid. I'm just worried that the 10$ loss is just the beginning.....we might se much lower numbers than 160$ today if the market panics�
1/1/2015
guest Well we can all compute what our options will be worth around current price:
Option Price Calculator
I used IV of 60% and got that the Nov 170 will be ca $2, Dec $175 ca $6-7.�
1/1/2015
guest Wow....that was intense.....so the market decided for me.....I'm holding on all my options as selling now would make no sense at all :scared:
I'm not too sure how.....but so far I'm surviving without a margin call....I guess the Bull Call Spreads protected me from the worst of it...�
1/1/2015
guest Yea, no idea if it's worth dumping now at 95% loss or waiting a couple days and hoping for a mere 90%. No, that's not being facetious. At least the options are for the 16th rather than the 8th so I can actually wait a day or two.
Edit: Or, after I check email at work, the stock can drop enough to make my decision irrelevant.�
1/1/2015
guest This is insane...... or are we the crazy ones?�
1/1/2015
guest Looks like the buyers are arriving.�
1/1/2015
guest I thought it strange but never listened to a conference call without introductory comment/review of performance. Just threw it open to questions. Anyone else see anything like this. Last 4 tsla cc had a story to tell this one let everyone else write it�
1/1/2015
guest I thought it was strange but dismissed it because there's no point of rehashing what can be read from the shareholder's letter. Giving more time to questions should be a priority, in which case I think it is a good thing. If they took out the time to rehash what was found in the letter, it'll be less time to take questions and give out decent answers that may help out the company's image.
- - - Updated - - -
Yeah, since $146's. I'm hoping that TSLA can recover towards $160, but it might take a while for that. I even missed buying puts this morning and missed the $146 buy in for the way back up. Oh well. Can't always time the highs and lows. It seems that TSLA will recover, just like Facebook did. It tanked towards $47 and bounced back up and FB touched $50s yesterday and today, but it's trading a little sideways for the time being.�
1/1/2015
guest I'm really annoyed -- I'm shifting my accounts from TD Ameritrade to Vanguard, and so my TDA accounts are in lock-down, but the securities/money aren't yet available at Vanguard. Argggg.... Such a great opportunity to buy long-dated LEAPS today.�
1/1/2015
guest I hope you don't get the same opportunity tomorrow�
1/1/2015
guest There was a tweet (another thread on TMC) about another ms fire in Nashville�
1/1/2015
guest Out of curiosity Robert, why the switch away from TD Ameritrade to Vanguard?�
1/1/2015
guest 3rd Model S fire reported this morning... Really bad timing on this one.�
1/1/2015
guest Let's get down to Tesla's "intrinsic value" of $36 per share and I'll quadruple my position�
1/1/2015
guest So now that I feel panic in my gut, I'm going to try to put some capital to work. Assuming I wanted to try and catch a falling knife, does anyone have an idea on the support levels between $144 and say $100? I'm going to try and put in some limit orders on Jan 16 2015 100s.�
1/1/2015
guest Grab on to your lap bar, this one is looking to be a big drop. It's falling quicker and the market still has 2 minutes to open.�
1/1/2015
guest Wow it's holding its own, that helps. We will see what the rest of the day brings.�
1/1/2015
guest I expected open to be a lot worse...so either
A. People don't care about the fire
Or
B. People don't know about it yet
Also possible that the stock already took such a huge hit yesterday that there's nothing else to give (wishful thinking?) or that it's going to be a slow drop.�
1/1/2015
guest There's still no short selling allowed, right?�
1/1/2015
guest
Correct, new short positions are restricted until market close today. We'll see how TSLA does tomorrow once new shorts are allowed back in. Personally, I don't think the next week will be pretty.�
1/1/2015
guest Twitter's IPO is sucking up all the attention right now, so I wouldn't be surprised if most major news outlets have yet to print a story on the fire.
That begin said, the rumors flying around that Tesla fires are being intelligently staged seems to become more credible with each incident.
At least the Model X won't have similar problems.�
1/1/2015
guest Why do you say that?�
1/1/2015
guest Probably because the X will have a higher ride height, so less change of debris damaging the battery pack.�
1/1/2015
guest Not so sure about that. We don�t have final dimensions. I doubt it will be by much.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, I abandoned my 2015 LEAPS. I don't think we've hit bottom since we're in the short sale short circuit today. I'll take the loss and write it off against the gains from earlier stock sales. I was in a tricky spot with taxes anyway and would likely have to sell some next year regardlless to pay taxes on the gains I used to buy the LEAPS.
I'll set the 30 day clock on the wash sale rule and look at reentering the 2016 LEAPS after that with what I have left. That also removes any margin usage, usage I'd intended to remove by selling off my Nov16th options, but those are worthless at this point. I don't see a lot of catalysts for major recovery over the next 30 days.
I may sell LEAP puts as a replacement for buying calls. That nets me some cash without using actual margin (though it counts against margin available). I'm not entirely sure how that works with the wash sale rules though, so I have to research that.�
1/1/2015
guest To be honest I'm kind of excited. This past month has sort of been a reality check for me with TSLA, and I feel much more knowledgable now as we move forward. The only thing driving us down is FUD and inflated expectations becoming more grounded. Fundamentally, Tesla hasn't gotten any worse. Unfortunately I suspect we will still be heading lower, but once we do find support and the dust finally settles, I will gladly ride it all the way back up to 200 and beyond.�
1/1/2015
guest I appreciate the positive perspective, but I think this is much more than a little blip. whether the car is safer than an ICE (I believe it is) or not, no longer should be the focus for Tesla. Tesla needs to admit that a previously unforeseen vulnerability to the battery has been found and they are quickly working to make the safest car in the world even safer with reinforcement to the battery shield... it's critical, I believe to Tesla's survival, IMHO. Nothing catches attention and creates more fear than the idea of electrical fires in new technology. the fact that gas cars catch on fire a lot is old news, something people have learned to live with, it just can't be the focus of the response any longer, IMHO. Tesla has to find a way to make the car less vulnerable to road debris, period.�
1/1/2015
guest Agree 100%. I think a battery upgrade with the purpose of improving safety is necessary. Hope it will be announced soon.�
1/1/2015
guest Account consolidation to benefit from lower fees as a Vanguard Admiral account.�
1/1/2015
guest Roger. I have been enjoying using the Thinkorswim tool offered via TDAmeritrade so I suppose I will stick around there, but Vanguard is legendary for good reason. Thanks for response.�
1/1/2015
guest You should do some more research on this but it's my understanding that the 2016 LEAPs are not substantially identical with your 2015 LEAPs since they are different strike and expiration dates, so you could just buy the 2016s without worrying about the wash rule.�
1/1/2015
guest TSLA above 150$ by the end of the day.........please?�
1/1/2015
guest I like your optimism :wink:�
1/1/2015
guest Looks like we could test the 133 support level this morning.�
1/1/2015
guest I think now we're going to have to wait for a statement from Tesla about the battery fires. Hopefully they will say they are looking into how to prevent such fires. As mentioned above, it doesn't cut it any more to say there's no problem. That would tank the stock. Perception is everything. Tesla can't ignore this any longer.
Elon wanted the stock to go lower, but this has gotten out of hand. He has a real crisis on his hands.
I'm hopeful a little reassurance, an announcement of a fix will fix the stock as well and we'll be back on the slow rise trajectory again.
Easiest fix might be just replacing the bottom shield with steel. But how do they prevent rust? Kevlar?
A deflector might make the problem worse, catching an edge of debris and flipping it up so it impales the battery. Raising the car would help, would be easy, but hurts its sports car image.
It would be nice if there was some way to prevent the fire even if impaled. More fire retardant foam, more separation between cells, more and smaller compartments in the pack.
The goal isn't necessarily to reduce damage but to prevent a fire.�
1/1/2015
guest How about saying it's not a "problem" but will take necessary steps to reduce the likelihood. Will consider reinforcing and in the mean time will raise via software the minimum height of the car at high speeds.�
1/1/2015
guest ^ Perfectly Said!�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks DaveT, I'll check into how the 2016 works. I've had a hard time finding any rigorous definition of what's considered "substantially identical"
Edit: Holy crap Batman, I just spent a while reading through the IRS pub (550?) on the wash sale rules and it's just hopelessly confusing. I'd already committed to using a good tax CPA this year (never have before) and this just reinforces that. The examples and verbiage would seem to indicate almost any bet on TSLA: put, call, LEAP, weekly, whether a write or buy, etc would all be considered substantially identical.�
1/1/2015
guest $133 just got breached. I thought it was going to hold around $135 and trade sideways, but it looks like people are still dumping and nobody is buying to prop it up so that a lot of the $135 put options go worthless.�
1/1/2015
guest 50 millions shares traded in the last 3 days already. That's about half the company outstanding share. This is getting out of hand.�
1/1/2015
guest Today is quite interesting... Dip down to $132, then a jump back up to $136... Where will this stock end for the day? So confusing.�
1/1/2015
guest Short Term TSLA Investor Social Chat
Tesla needs to address both this specific incident near Nashville, and any concerns with the battery pack. They need to do this as soon as possible.
I'm not worried about the stock price. I am worried about damage to public perception because the longer potential customers see only bad headlines, the more damage done to future sales. My news feed is filled with gleeful headlines which are clearly crafted to be as damning (attention getting) as possible.�
1/1/2015
guest
You can either use a simple KTL-coating (very effective) or you can use stainless steel. Both are rust resistant.�
1/1/2015
guest Taking a lunch break and I see there's a break out. It looks like we will hit $140 or so to take out that large $140 put options. Update: Looks like it just crossed $140 and backed down a bit.�
1/1/2015
guest On an average day TSLA seems to have a pretty regular pattern of V where the bottom of the V is at noon ET.�
1/1/2015
guest Nice to be flirting with green again.�
1/1/2015
guest Well, I think it's about game over for options players for today. I think the stock will stabilize around the $140 mark, unless there is major development news to swing the stock price either way. I wanted to get in for the $140 swing upwards, but I was too late.�
1/1/2015
guest Thoughts on Elon making a statement this weekend regarding the latest fire?�
1/1/2015
guest I think it would depend on how long Tesla's investigation takes. I have no idea when Elon would release a statement, but I hope more info is available soon.�
1/1/2015
guest The textbook response would be to investigate and if, in the meantime, the storm blows over just issue a low-key statement; if the storm doesn't blow over then you make a higher profile announcement.�
1/1/2015
guest With other crises it has taken 4 days whether first fire, border review. I think this May take longer with other factors in this including potential recall ,NTSb investigation and class action suit. I think there is more on the line�
1/1/2015
guest Statement is here: from the "owner"
From a Model S owner in Tennessee | Blog | Tesla Motors
"This experience does not in any way make me think that the Tesla Model S is an unsafe car. I would buy another one in a heartbeat."
�
1/1/2015
guest It will be interesting to see if the blog from the driver involved in the most recent fire makes it into all the news outlets that were so quick to report the fire. Unfortunately, I think I know the answer, and won't hold my breath....�
1/1/2015
guest Good stuff, though as the post said, the truck in front (and however many cars before that?) cleared the object without issue. Tesla is a very low car at freeway speed with air suspension and so it's going to be prone to underbody hits. The car performed beautifully, but I'm still in a wait and see whether the low profile and battery covering the underbody causes Telsa to suffer both more impacts and higher damage (fires that total the car or full battery replacements vs. something like a ripped catalytic).�
1/1/2015
guest Stories are showing up under my iPhone stock app - San Jose Mercury News, Business Insider, The Verge...
If my car catches fire, I'll upgrade to a P85 and Tesla will get another sale. I don't think it will affect demand in a material way. The brunt of the hit has already been taken and I'm banking on a rebound from here.�
1/1/2015
guest Koo koo... atchoo! (Excuse me I have a cold)...�
1/1/2015
guest As I noted earlier, since I bailed out of my LEAPS (options will just expire worthless), I'm subject to the wash sale rule and can't buy more stock/options without some unfortunate tax issues.
I did find an explanation that notes that selling ATM or OTM puts aren't considered substantially similar and thus won't trigger the wash sale. The theory is that you don't participate in upward movement if you sell such puts (where as selling ITM puts, you'd gain significantly as the stock goes up). As a relative newb, I had to read the rules a few times as it gets confusing since ITM and OTM are relative to which end of the contract you're on...
Anyway, the end result is that I think I can try to get in on TSLA while it's "cheap" with ATM puts. If the stock goes up, then I keep the cash. Obviously it's not nearly the gain you'd see with calls if the stock goes up, but the risk is lower since you make money even if the stock is flat (or goes down less than the premium you made).�
1/1/2015
guest I mentioned this in the Long Term Thread, but I think it is relevant here too. Today I added to my holdings of common shares for the first time since about $30. All bought with gains from playing options since then.�
1/1/2015
guest Anyone know if the Lending rate on Tesla shares has risen above 1% on the dip? I could use some interest income going into holiday season...�
1/1/2015
guest I got spooked and took profits at 140 last week. 401k account so no short term tax implications.
got brave and greedy again today and bought my shares back at 137.60
Nice little rise today after the repurchase :biggrin:�
1/1/2015
guest thanks for that Cit-T and others; I also added position today (low $140s) - I primarily use LEAPS - I added Jan2016 $170 strike significantly (note I would have gone with a $250-$300 strike typically for that but they aren't available yet- so I'll roll up later when they are)�
1/1/2015
guest We all seem to be riding the same "it's too cheap, got to add now" brain wave. Sold my common shares and doubled down back into options @ $138.46�
1/1/2015
guest I never sold my core position going down.... I still have some options expiring the 15th and the 22nd from my ER play (various bull call spreads for 175$ and above so worthless right now....). A small portion of my portfolio but a total loss.
I didn't have a lot of capital so couldn't add significantly to my long position without risking everything. So to profit from the run up I bought some short term (Nov 22) 145$ strike call options. So far so good but I've often managed to squander big gains with short term options....let's see if I learned my lesson this time....�
1/1/2015
guest The media has some bizarre obsession with Tesla right now. It seems like the cover Tesla more than Apple, Google, GM, Toyota combined. Of course none of the coverage is positive: stock down 20% from high, 3 fires, George Clooney comment, random tweet about a recall, plant accident, etc.�
1/1/2015
guest I agree. The negative bashing has grown to hysterical proportions lately. Even positive news are turned around and twisted and there is a lot of lying going on. A lot of disgusting stuff going on these days. Without the immense pressure of this negative bombardement and realistic assessment of all the good news that come from the company the stock most likely would have hit 200 easily. Disgusting.�
1/1/2015
guest While I'm distressed that 3 workers were injured, the silly market reaction downward let me extend my long position at a modest discount. Should I send flowers?�
1/1/2015
guest If you believe this then I hope you are buying. I am. I've been adding to my common shares for the first time in a long time.�
1/1/2015
guest There's a story of a hedgefund manager who took a cab ride and the taxi driver told him which stock to buy. The hedgefund manager shorted and made a killing. All the market and "know it alls" are saying to short Tesla because it's the hot topic.�
1/1/2015
guest That's not really applicable here. The cab driver was praising that stock. That would have been the right anecdote when we were in the 190s. In fact I heard that story a dozen times from the 150s to the 190s.�
1/1/2015
guest Oh weird my point got cut off in the original post. My point was you need to go against the mainstream thinking. So buying when the horde is hating is the way to go.�
1/1/2015
guest +1 It got cutoff cause it was an evil (your 666) post�
1/1/2015
guest This is advertisement that companies will pay TSLA's current net worth for but still won't get. Elon need to think about how to use this recent fame. I am sure if Tesla wasn't on someone mind before, they are now.
I would go with preannouncing the 2014 guidance in Jan (if it is good) reveal of China reservation and A Kevlar optional Addon with bullet proof glass as a "military" option. 1-2-3 punch at an unexpected time.
The problem is that everyone thinks that there's not going to be any news till march earnings, so it is fairly easy to short. And this is affecting the price as well as morale at the factory for those ppl who are paid in options.�
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