Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 24

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congrats sleepyhead on your new addition. Wow on your trades. I wish I had the guts to do what you did. I was so gunshy that I only
    Did a small weekly trade. However I have some pretty good notes of what I did wrong the last couple of weeks. Had I had more experience and taken the risk you did last week I would be really beaming.

    I am super excited for you. Nothing like having a baby and killer stock trades to set up her college education in the same week. Here's to your new addition and hoping your new baby sleeps well at night so you and your wife can get plenty of sleep. *cheers*
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Short term, OK....Longer term looking for $300 Jan15 and $400 Jan16 :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm happy for all of you out there who were smarter than me. I'm kicking myself pretty badly as I sold off my 210 weeklies at the worst possible time, yesterday. missed out on a multi-bagger on what was a big options play for me. i've never really felt bad when TSLA has gone up before until today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We've all done it before but just weren't brave enough to post it! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i hear you. i sold today at market open for a 20% gain...knowing I did not have time to check for most of the rest of the day and they expired this week....when i checked after work...ouch. still a gain, but ouch.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Colbert just mentioned he drives a Tesla on his show (pretty sure it was a joke, though). So, Colbert bump tomorrow?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Colbert was just on Letterman, didn't say anything about Tesla, but did read a top ten list.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have done it before too. I was set up perfectly for almost a $100k gain on the Detroit Auto Show play and instead I cashed out at $7k. Right after they announced the news my options were up a lot and I panic sold most of them way too soon, even though I actually wrote to someone that "the market is not pricing in this news properly yet." I was selling them at the time when I should have been buying a lot more. Such an obvious thing to do in hindsight. I even knew that the stock would go up a lot, yet I still sold.

    It was the most obvious, easiest play to make and I screwed it up back then. I did get a 10-bagger on that weeklies setup, but it should have been the easiest 100-bagger ever.

    And don't beat yourself up too much. I am sure that there are plenty of times where you sold off weeklies to cut losses and it turned out to be a good thing you did. I know that there were plenty of times where I held on only to see them expire worthless.

    I actually stopped playing TSLA weeklies about 2-3 weeks ago completely, since I was on a losing streak and thought I would wait for the bottom before getting in. I figured that the market bottomed last week just by looking at price action and that the China event will spur some buying in TSLA.

    I did put in a couple of very aggressive bids on Monday morning and I was very fortunate that my $0.26 bid for the $220's got filled. When I put it in, they were trading for about $0.40 and the stock was already in the red 1% at that point. I could have very easily missed out as I did on my $210's bid, which was just a tiny bit too aggressive at $0.82. I got extremely lucky that I got into the trade in the first place.

    Playing weeklies is gambling. But I like doing it with "small" amounts of cash, because I feel that I can use my daily market research to try to gain an edge and at least know that the odds are in my favor. That is the great thing about having these investment forums: we collaborate together, so it is easy to get all of the research you need in one place. And if you keep up with everything else that is going on in the world on a macro level, then all of a sudden the odds favor you.

    You will not win every time you play weeklies, but if you do the due diligence and wait patiently for the right opportunity to get in then over time you should come out ahead financially. That is the theory, but reality doesn't always play out like it should.

    The way I play weeklies is that I lose more times than I win. But the most I can lose is 100%, while my gain is unlimited. I look for options that are priced like there would need to be a mini black swan like event in order for them to finish ITM, but in reality there is at least a 10%-20% chance that they will yield a huge return. I don't mind losing 3-times in a row, because when I win it will usually be a 5-10 bagger. Definitely not a recommended strategy. It is extremely hard to find these opportunities in the first place. And even if you do, it is extremely hard to mentally stick to the plan. That's why it is paramount to come up with the game plan before you buy the options. If you bought weekly call options last Thursday with the intention to play the Chinese delivery week, then there was no reason to fire up the computer and sell those options on Monday morning; that is not sticking to the plan. But it is very easy to want to cut losses short when you see the stock selling off instead of going up like it should.

    When you buy your options, you have to already have an exit strategy in mind. After buying those options, you have to stick to the plan almost no matter what. And that is the really hard part.

    Overall, I don't recommend playing weekly options at all. It is pretty much gambling. I do it rarely, and only when I feel like I am in the casino's position and the odds are significantly in my favor. I really don't even recommend playing 1-3 month options either. I am speaking from experience, since I do these options but it is mostly for entertainment value. I feel that you can achieve similar returns by playing stock and leveraging up with margin only when the stock has sold on a big pullback. Options are fun, and weeklies can be thrilling; but more times than not option plays turn out to be busts. I think options are only good if you come up with a strategy and stick to it. The best one that I know of is to "buy value and sell hopes and dreams". But it seems like we are the ones usually buying hopes and dreams when playing options.

    I first started investing in stock only. I made some nice gains on SPWR last year. I took a portion of those profits and set up a couple of separate options only trading accounts. I do not trade options in my stock accounts. Therefore, I am playing with house money in the options accounts. So if I lose it all, then it wasn't mine to begin with. I will still have my stock portfolios, because I don't do any options in those. When I am up a lot in the options accounts I will syphon off some of those gains into my checking account to pay off debts, so that if I get wiped out in the options accounts then I still spent a good chunk of those gains over time.

    All is good in a bull market, but have to be careful if things change. Everything is looking good on the economic front IMO from the research that I have done, but if there is some other black swan event, then we are in big trouble. Can't live in fear the whole time, so I take my chances and hope that a black swan event doesn't happen. The unfortunate thing is that they happen all too often.

    Happy investing everyone!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Amazing post.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I enjoyed reading about your options plays. Perhaps there is an element of gambling but that is what makes it so attractive. I guess most traders have a gambling gene streak. There is a lot of personal input by processing information and trying to time it so it is not a pure luck. IMO with time and practice traders' gut feelings get really sharp as when people repetitively play a game with high stakes they inevitably improve. If my theory is correct, then all options players will end up being rich, after sufficient practice and time.:biggrin:

    Agree with economic outlook, my employer just released results (US based global business) and we had a great year, profits going up from year to year. As long as businesses are making profits, market will be ok, unless some black swan event interferes.

    I am just wondering if you have separate accounts for stocks and options, are you not limiting your ability to trade? For example you may be missing out on selling covered calls and that is an easy and low risk trade.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's funny, because I for one consider myself fairly conservative and risk averse, though I guess by the greater population's definition that isn't correct. But I almost never gamble unless I'm sure ill win. Which is why I invested every cent in TSLA in the 20s, because I was sure I would win. Now I throw comparative pittances at options and do well enough, but have learned some expensive lessons. Still though its interesting to see myself gambling like this on options when I really do not gamble in life. I think it's because I consider it an information game, where i have an edge over the world. More like counting cards than a slot machine.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Congratulations on your sure win on TSLA.

    Just to expand on my statement on gambling streak, I would be very surprised if any trader does gamble in real life. I would be bored to death in a casino.

    I'd like to think that regular gamblers, like casino gamblers are completely different species, as most of them rely on luck. There may be some exceptions.

    The traders, in your own words, "want to have an edge over the world", but that edge is a result of personal effort.

    My words would be that we like to improve our odds by putting a lot of effort in absorbing and processing the information and by acting on it. Most of all I would like to believe that we can improve with time and practice so there is less gambling and more winning.

    Lets imagine that with time a trader masters the game and is able to achieve a win in every trade. Such certain win trades would feel like going to ATM. It would feel good but the thrill would be gone. So for as long as there is a thrill, or a possibility of both winning and losing, that is what I unfortunately called 'gambling streak' as I can not think of a better term.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm adding my thanks to sleepyhead for a brilliant post.

    I know what you mean, only to me it would feel like going to the ATM with someone else's card. I can assure you I would feel the thrill every single time :).

    There's lots of wisdom to be found in sleepy's post, as well as everyone else's experiences. Maybe we can distill it into a set of guidelines to help newbies like me to improve their game?

    ***

    Say you go fishing. All you have at the start is a boat, a hook, and a finite amount of bait. As soon as you throw your hook in the water, the bait starts to break apart, slowly at first, but faster and faster the longer it stays in the water. If the fish doesn't bite soon enough, your bait is gone, and you have to replace it and try again.

    After a few tries, you get your first fish. That moment is unforgettable. You're hooked (so to speak). You're thinking: if I keep catching fish at this rate, I'm gonna fill my boat with fish in no time, and maybe I won't have to go out to sea ever again!

    The thing is, letting yourself be seduced by that feeling is the surest way to wipe out your stash and lose your boat. No more free fish. It's back to farming for you.

    So what's a rookie to do? Well, at the village pub there are all these fishermen more experienced than you, talking about all the tuna to be had. You listen to their stories about how they made their big catches, and you look at their photos with the enormous big sword fish hanging heads up from their hooks. Obviously, the fish is out there.

    So here is what this rookie (thinks he) has learned so far from the wise guys' chatter:

    1. Be careful how much bait you buy.
    You may think farming is not sexy, but it will keep you alive for the rest of your days. If you have a good crop, use some of the gains to buy a little bait for your fishing adventure, but keep it small. Don't eat your seed, and don't even _think_ of betting the farm.

    2. Don't take all your bait with you in the boat on any given day.
    Chances are you'll need to stay in the game longer than you think. Make sure to leave enough for tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, and the days after that.

    3. When you're out, be prepared to throw your hook many times before you make one catch.
    This means you must size every try accordingly, or you will lose all your bait after only a few tries. You must also decide on when to lift the fish in the boat, and when to hold out for a bigger one.

    4. Most of the water is empty.
    You're not the only one out there. The ocean is teeming with fishermen, all chasing the same catch. And everywhere you look, there are huge industrial ships casting wide nets and trawling the sea bottom clean.

    5. Most days, you should stay at home.
    The fish is out there, but it's concentrated and fleeting. It's possible to get to it first, but you have to know both where, and most importantly when to throw your hook. The wise fishermen at the pub discuss their tricks all the time to learn from each other. They might talk about some big migration coming, or flocks of birds gathering in one spot, or about a little-known ship wreck likely to attract schools of fish. Pay attention; if you can learn to spot and interpret these signs, you will be more likely to pick the right time and location.

    6. Never go out in a storm.
    You see those big, black clouds on the horizon? They're the reason most boats around you are lifting their nets and are heading home. You may think you can hang around a bit longer and have the fish to yourself, but it's more likely you won't make it to shore before a big wave hits you, and you'll capsize.

    7. Don't lose your head.
    With all the stories you hear, you might think all those successful fishermen just know when, how, and what to do every single time, without breaking a sweat. But if you listen carefully, you'll see that every one of them speaks of how hard they have to fight to stay cool under pressure, and how everyone gets wet and swallows plenty of salty water as a matter of course. So if you ever felt stupid, it's not you, it's simply in the nature of fishing.

    8. Make sure you regularly eat some fish.
    Don't just turn all your new catch into more bait. Put some on the grill. Even if you're in it just for the thrill of the chase, regularly eating fish is good for you.

    9. There's more to life than fishing.
    Keep your perspective and enjoy your life with your family and friends. By far, the most important of all.

    ***
    I hope you'll forgive the stretching of the metaphor thus far :). Please continue to add more of your hard-earned collective wisdom.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    obviously well thought out but what about stock?? actually return based on how much you risk. all the above will limit your risk but also your return. everybody has to figure out their own level of risk they are willing to endure for what they believe to be the return.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Clearly, the poem that got written yesterday is causing today's drop.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I view the stock as your farming business. It was actually sleepy's practice of keeping his stock account separate from his options account that inspired my previous post (most of my post, in fact, is a retelling of his.) I think it's wise to keep most of your holdings in stock and, depending on your situation, even index funds.

    As for the rest, my take from the poker pros is that, while you can win at poker if you develop your skills, it's typically going to be a long grind. The really good hands are rare, and if you just bet big every time, you'll run out sooner or later. So, preservation of capital has to come first.

    You're right, the lower the risk, the lower the expected return. However, this cuts both ways. Everybody should decide where to draw the risk line to fit their own situation, as you said.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like there was a meeting of the bears earlier this week, and the decision was made to use the bubble argument against TSLA. I cannot believe how many times I heard the terms "bubble" and "Tesla" used in the same sentence.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like AAPL crushed its ER and FB had a good ER as well. AAPL trading halted, also will split 7:1.

    Might be a good day tomorrow in the market.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It seems that some of that is rubbing off on TSLA too in AH.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    up 8% AH now; 7:1 split and adding $30B more to buy-back; plus the big beat Y/Y and otherwise. this has got to drag-up tomorrow (thanks APPL)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I can detect thief's gene streak here. :wink: If you consider the money stolen, then there is a thrill, because there is a downside risk in stealing.

    Great fishing metaphor, it seems that there are many hidden talents on TMC threads:cool:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So if aapl is up 40 points then that means tsla will go up 40 points too right? Please?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, but stealing from the shorts can't be wrong, right?

    Right?

    - - - Updated - - -

    It certainly would, if only Apple would put some of that cash they're using to buy back their shares into the Tesla GF...

    But I'm betting it will, regardless. Who knows, maybe even this quarter!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sure hope not. Otherwise, a lot of us on this board are looking at some serious jail time.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This thread is so entertaining, but gotta go do some work. Can't neglect the farm
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I was trying to think of a way to work "The Perfect Storm" into FamilialRhino's analogy, but I ultimately felt it would only take away from the succinctness.

    However, I sometimes go fishing when I shouldn't, fill the hold and stay out well into the night hoping to catch more. I then make wagers with myself on the odds of sinking as the water swirls around my ankles.

    ...It's not a particularly good strategy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow, the shorts are really getting desperate.

    This fresh Seeking Alpha gem of an article brings up all of the same tired "arguments": Model S demand is peaking in Tesla's existing markets so it constantly needs to open new ones (China), how high can the stock go, Tesla has no earnings, etc.

    But this author, who discloses he is short TSLA, really comes up with a winner: Tesla is a complacent company led by a angry and paranoid Elon Musk, who lashes out at critics such as the innocent Lemon Law guy, and apparently keeps an enemies list, just like Nixon (his comparison.)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    ROFL!

    Angry? Paranoid? "Lashes out"? I think that describes the late Steve Jobs, not Elon Musk. The author must be confused.

    Seems like some weird conflation to me�
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because I liked your analogy so much, this guy would be bottom trawling in that part of the ocean that has no oxygen?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nah, Auzie's analogy works better in this case. He's the just the guy giving us his ATM card.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My comment to that Seeking Alpha article is currently the last one of 204. Since you may not otherwise get to it, here is a copy:
    _________________________________

    Without getting into counterarguments for all of the oft-repeated FUD presented by the short selling author, I'll simply note that a company that does not advertise relishes every bit of publicity. If Musk gets in the news for taking on a liar or a fool, it is an eventual benefit.

    I retired as the host of a financial TV news program in 2003. Until late January of 2013 I had never heard of Tesla Motors, the Model S or Elon Musk. When provided with a tip by a former guest on my program, I did thorough research. I was especially interested in the manner in which FUD was being spread. I bought a significant number of shares at less than $38 each. A few weeks later the Broder affair took the stock down a bit. It then moved up when the company was able to prove what Broder had done with the car. The stock has generally been on a tear ever since, although not without hiccups. For the larger corrections I had written covered calls, resulting in cash I was able to keep.

    Now it's over a year since I learned of Tesla Motors, and still the majority of people that I run into here in Chicagoland are either unaware or vaguely aware of the company and its cars. Sure, those who've been following financial news in recent months have heard of it, but most people do not follow the financial news. An intelligent electrical contractor did work in my home last week. I asked him if he were aware of Tesla. "Sure", he replied, "Nikola Tesla was a great electrical engineer." But he knew nothing about Tesla Motors or the Model S.

    In the US the Model S is essentially selling on word of mouth that begins in California. Once production ramps up sufficiently, the company will advertise. Then you can forget any talk about orders plateauing.

    Tesla Motors is disrupting established oil and automobile industries as it leads an electric car revolution that its competitors are reluctant to follow. Don't be surprised if in a few years it becomes the world's largest and most profitable car manufacturer and battery producer. Investors today are paying for only a small part of that potential, and wisely are not evaluating its business by the metrics meant for ICE-age automakers.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Curt,
    Your reply is spot on, especially when you address the demand-in-US issue and point out the ability for Tesla to advertise someday when the company is capable of meeting demand. I laughed out loud when I read the phrase 'ICE-age automakers'.

    With Supercharger networks popping up in North America, Europe, and China, Tesla is going to be so far ahead of the competition in a few years that ICE-age automakers will experience serious difficulty catching up when they finally realize that consumers are shifting to electric vehicles. If Tesla builds Model E in China, avoids the duties, enjoys subsidies, has an established charging network in place, and can avoid the one-in-a-hundred automobile lottery, Model E will sell crazy well in China, I believe.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have a lot of respect for the substance, but especially the tone of your responses to these SA articles. In the face of brazenly dishonest arguments, I confess my first instinct is to respond with sarcasm. Your way is much better, because it makes it easy for bystanders to distinguish between the dishonest party and the balanced, informed one.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well lots of good info out of China and FTC....Bought a couple 'lottery tickets', April 26 215 calls for 40 cents in hopes that we might get some digestion of this week's news and a small 'pop' tomorrow.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did the same. I will be interested if the Shanghai plate $48 million incentive will move the price. It's an interesting pilot that, if replicated in other major cities or picked up nationally would be tremendous, an endorsement of Tesla by the powers that be.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hope we do see a pop due to this news. But it usually takes a couple of days or a weekend for the mainstream to pick up on this news and report it widely. So we might see the benefits of this news next week.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Agreed. Not looking for a 'homerun' here. Would gladly take a 'single'. :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    No no no. Home run. I need a home run!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just announced:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for all of the support you guys from a few days ago, on my mistimed options play. Actually did make feel a lot better. I did go in with an exit strategy and held to it. My strategy was just wrong. I didn't quite understand why tsla went up the way it did on tuesday.

    This shanghai thing is great. I'm psyched.

    Maoing and Cankoo1, your insights into Tesla China are just awesome. Thank you!

    Regarding the FTC opinion, I don't think it is going to make any difference. Ultimately, when Tesla becomes huge and there are barriers to purchasing a Tesla in certain states, the legislators in those states will capitulate. When that happens, Tesla will have already won the game.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks for posting the TSLA shareholder meeting info. I'm planning to buy my plane tickets tonight. Southwest has a great sale going on but ending at midnight today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am looking forward to attending as well, can't wait to drive up Highway 1 without the family (daughter gets car sick sometimes) to attend the shareholder meeting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What's with the pre-market owwie?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    AMZN + Ukraine.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hopefully word of the China fleet sales, FTC opinion, SpaceX magic dust announcement rub-off will allow a more reasoned day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Like most lottery tickets, 99.9% are losers...'L' for AlMc today. Luckily small amount invested.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Bummer +1. My May 9's are looking blood red this morning. Holding on to them though, hoping we weather this storm.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nobody carrying news. Question why
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I hate being right about the downwards macro movement. If this is how hard we're hit when there's no company-specific negative news, imagine how much it would hurt when there is company-specific negative news. Congrats to everyone who managed to hedge their bets in the current environment. I don't have an opinion as to whether it's too late to take a defensive stance or not, though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    AMZN is close to triggering the SEC's Short Sale Circuit Breaker of 10% drop limit. As one of the US' most recognizable brands and a leader in the stock market and tech industry, this is significant and no one is paying much attention to anything else right now, other than Ukraine.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just submitted an article at SA with the Chinese news. Rushed non-edited job early AM today but got the info out there. Hmm SA just pushed it out. But they didn't like my word - Fleeconomics
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I looked at all the good news reported this week and then promptly bought puts a few days ago. This is the exact opposite of what I'd normally do, but I was tired of hoping that the market would respond the way it should. Sold a bunch of them at ~$198 a few minutes ago, not for huge gains, mostly just recycling free cash. My June 270's are laughable at this point.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well...short term options for today puts me even. My bet on April 215s that I bought yesterday were a 90% loss but I picked up some 200s near market low at and sold for 100% gain. These were both small positions so I am not losing the farm or planning on retirement tomorrow.
    Also picked up some more May9 200s. Hoping for some good news macroecononically (or at least no more bad news there) and on the TM front.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon Musk Space X statement line on bloomberg west
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    How does one respond to reputation comments? Anyway - thanks everyone who gave me some nice ones over the last few weeks..
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Will we see a close at $200.00 today? The even Friday closes happened a lot last year but I don't remember one lately. BTW 52-week low is $50.50. If I knew what was coming back then I'd be a much richer man today. Good times... good times.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Options expire today so may see a close just above $200.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Puts expire too, that is why I am thinking $200.00 even since they will get both sides.

    Edit: oops, yeah a close above $200 would be good for put writers and there are more puts than calls today... So just above $200 is likely.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    thanks AIMc. 12 minutes in, Elon estimates the probability of getting the cost of the Gen III down 50% as a 99% likelihood. I've heard his confidence in this before, but this was quite a strong expression of it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon also confirms the free license plate thing in Shanghai.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    While there haven't been any company specific bad events, there has what appears to be a concerted FUD campaign in some parts of the media. For example, Barron's put negative article after negative article into the news over the past 2 weeks.

    With the media being blanketed with FUD and the words "tech bubble" thrown about constantly, the stock price is kept down.

    Proving the naysayers wrong with good results is the only antidote.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Could we see a small pop on Monday after people have had the weekend to absorb all of this positive news from this week?
    Plus, share price below 200 looks pretty yummy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hello All,
    New teslamaniac here and a new retail investor.

    I have a random question that I hope someone can answer. If you bought the Tesla Model S in Europe for delivery on Q1 2014, did you purchase it in Euros or Dollars? The reason I ask is that I *think* most of these purchases were made at least 6 months ago and the Euro has increased in value vis a vis the dollar by @4-6 % since. If so, I *think* if the purchase was made in Euros and delivery occurs later, Tesla would accrue those extra dollars due to the exchange rate for Q1 2014 revenue. Or am I way out to lunch? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I ordered mine late in Q1-14 and paid deposit in SEK. IIRC the exchange rate was for a cheaper dollar then than now. Balance will also be paid in SEK at the going rate on that day.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you. I never thought that there would be a re-calculation of the exchange at the going rate on the day the purchase is finalized. I guess then that currency fluctuations would not matter that much.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is certainly not a banner day for my TSLA and solar holdings. I guess retirement is overrated and I will continue to work a while longer! I have cash that I could commit as this may prove to be a good buying time but I admit that 'analysis-paralysis' has set into my brain so I am sitting on the sidelines right now.

    Good move by all you who hedged. Hopefully better days ahead for me and my cohorts who have calls/stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Super low volume
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hard to believe we were at 202 pre-market and now struggling near $194. I'm counting on good news on May 7th, but we need to stop the slide now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    May I chime into this discussion?
    On hydrogen and other fuel sources:

    * As a matter of a democratic society, discussions and testing alternative methods are certainly welcome. That's called pluralism.

    * Science does not evolve quickly or in a straightforward manner. Neither does general acceptance of scientific evidence. Trial & errors are also scientific methods by definition. So I wouldn't be concerned about immediate acceptance of our enlightened views.

    * In mathematics, there are concepts called "local maxima/minima" and "global maxima/minima". The fact that the society has chosen a certain inferior technology over the best one is reflection of the cost involved to seek the "global maxima/minima". You need an external shock (the more painful, the better) to make economic agents change their objective functions.

    ** Imagine how the market would react to Toyota's shares if/when there is a high profile explosion of the local hydrogen gas station... I am pretty sure that many small business owners would think twice about that. In that sense, Tesla has a potential to expand its network of super charging stations should it decide to make it a franchise model.


    Now let's separate personal passion for environmental change vs. business objectives:

    * I don't see anything wrong with competition being distracted or misled. The more & longer the competition spends their resources on inferior technology, the better it is for Tesla Motors.

    * Not only that the competition goes the wrong direction, they will then have to play a catch up game that is twice the distance from the initial point. By then Tesla would be miles even further ahead. That means that by the time the competition turns around, their capital expenses would be higher, which means thinner profit margins (if any). At the same time Tesla would be able to enjoy its economies of scale.


    Historical perspective:

    * How many automobile companies were there in 1920's? -- Dozens. Yet, the world population was smaller and the income-eligible customer base was even less. Over time most of those companies either went out of business or consolidated despite a larger aggregate demand. That's the classical nature of the supply function, i.e. marginal cost.

    * The key philosophical concept at Tesla Motors is First Principles. -- GM found its downfall when it started relying more on the finance arm to boost its income statement. Toyota enjoyed increased market share but gave in on quality control. So the lesson is that prudence & staying focused pays off.


    Value:

    * Warren Buffett often jokes that suppressed prices give him more time to buy good assets. He also says that it is better to pay a fair price for a good business than a good price for a fair company.

    * I say "Thank you!" to the market for making the share prices cheaper. In fact, right now I am trying to figure out how to move my 401K plan to the IRA account where I could invest more into TSLA shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The stock and the NASDAQ have had no direction except for an erratic see-saw the past few months, and its so frustrating, I think post earnings we will be at 160 or 230, depending on what TM annouces. Until then its chaos.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Found an old ROTH IRA that I put $2000 back in the late 90's. I bought AMZN and AAPL.

    Worth about $55k today with $10k of that being liquid.

    I put that cash money into TSLA today; it's really less than $400 of my basis money, right :biggrin:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Here I sit gnawing my fingernails and tapping my feet. Actually hoping the slump will hold for a few more days. Let me explain.

    One year ago I discovered TSLA and started to invest, via the cumbersome and fail-prone method of phoning my bank (hoping the stock guy was available) during the window of about one hour between open Nasdaq and close my bank (time zones). Local assets can be traded online, no problem. But TSLA etc are not local to me and need expert handling. So in the fall I opened a new account at a different bank, where I could trade via desktop in real-time. I also opened a tax-deferred account there, where only realized profits would be taxed, not each trade singly. Unfortunately, it turned out North Am assets were not eligible for that account so I withdrew almost all my cash deposit (and will pay a trivial pro forma tax on the max amount for that quarter).

    Now, last week this new bank announced that they would actually allow NA trading in the tax-deferred account. I rushed to move over all my assets, while they were at a (temporary?) slump, because the transfer is considered a sell and I will be liable for gains tax. Best while cheap!

    BUT - my two major holdings, TSLA and JASO, could not be transferred for a few days, due to some delay of liquidity or whatever. So, contrary to you my friends, I am actually crossing my bitten fingers that those two companies will trade lower until they are safe in my tax haven! Sorry about that; if it even matters to the market. :tongue:

    It would have been better, of course, if I could have invested there from the beginning, but that was not to be. Now I want to minimize the tax effect by trying to time the transfer, gazing into my misty crystal ball.

    End of week: GOGOGO!

    And that concludes this transmission. Good luck.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice little comeback, we may even have a chance of finishing green today...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    hope it works out- 2 great stocks regardless!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. Gain is gain after all, but prefer less taxes now.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We pay Tesla in Euros - here in Germany and elsewhere in the EU, whereever the Euro is the local currency.

    I suggest that Tesla adjusts the price of the cars once in a while to reflect changes in the exchange rate vs. the US $. Other factors include cost of localisation, import duties and so on. In Germany we also pay a 19 % value added tax.

    The price adjustments will be made by Tesla only when major fluctuations call for them. We pay the price that is valid at the time we finalise the car. Any price changes after that do not affect us.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I used to have similar trading troubles as you described in your post. There is some good information in Brokerage and Trading Tools thread on this forum. Based on contributors comments there, I opened IB account and transferred most assets to that account. Now placing orders is easy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, Auzie, might look into that later. For now, my new account enables trading but didn't insulate me from gains tax which the newest should do. I don't understand the delay in transfer for these two assets, though. Hoping timing will not be too critical ... :crying:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I just got a letter from my broker about the annual shareholders meeting on June 3rd. The letter didn't say how get in though. Does anyone know if you need to register somewhere to get a spot or can you just show up the day of and attend?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They didn't tell me anything about attending. They just gave me proxy info (which I haven't read yet), and said I could vote anytime before midnight the day before the meeting.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I got the same email. Last year I got a paper form directly from Tesla that had info about how to vote online and also to register to attend annual meeting. Haven't logged-on via my brokerage account yet to see if it will redirect to another site that allows you to RSVP to the TSLA annual meeting. Has anyone else tried that?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You should be able to just show up and attend. Last year they didn't check for anything at the door, you could just walk in. Don't think it'll be any different this year.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So is everyone sitting this release out now? I think I might actually go in with some calls depending on where the price is next week. The question is will the market care? OTOH $200 is as fine a price as any, I just think there have been so many negative articles out when things seem to be going better than ever for Tesla the company that earnings or delivery news might surprise the market. That being said profits may not be great since they are going into growth mode and I can't be sure the market expects that either.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have all my positions placed, short term May 9th 200 calls; medium term Sept 220, 240s; and LEAPS. The LEAPS are a mixed bag, some 300s/350s in tough shape; others bought recently, 200s are a little green. The macroeconomics/profit taking have taken a toll on the momos despite some decent, if not good, ERs. So, I am currently in my 'analysis/paralysis' mode and unwilling/unable to use cash reserves to buy more options or stock. While I am hopeful for decent financials I am really looking for some great guidance/news with the ERcall to propel us forward. If guidance is just 'decent' I see us in the 175-200 range waiting for the gigafactory plan/partner finalization, ramp up in production, introduction of the X (and AWD S) and some type of really high reservation numbers from China.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I did the online vote but it asked me on the voting site if I was going to attend in person or not. I don't think it was an official sign up though.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not a reliable source in any way, but this isn't this outside the realm of possibility. Obviously it would be launched alongside the Model X but the AWD Model S is still a rumor that makes sense.
    Details on AWD Model S : teslamotors
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, I will RSVP online. See everyone there, and stop and say Hi

    :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Also low end of the 52-week range is now $51.20. I've been enjoying watching that and remembering how surprised I was last year when I saw the stock go from $40 to $100 in less than 2 months.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Today's Nasdaq chart looks "different" somehow. Parabolic would be better but I'll take a straight line :biggrin:


    image.jpg
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    These kinds of charts give me the heebijeebies. Reeks of manipulation. A few days ago the jaso chart looked like a flat line at 10.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    OK guys I am suddenly super-bullish. I feel like we'll see $350 by late August. I expect the delivery report to be 7,100 vehicles and guidance to raised to 40,000 cars for the year. Don't worry, I'm not counting on it, but if it happens you heard it here first.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Love your optimism. I will just be happy if we get to $350 by Jan 2015. I just don't see over 7,000 deliveries but feel that if TM uses ZEV credits to offset the 'battery protection' cost giving us decent financials and a GREAT guidance that we may hit your prediction.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If we see $350 by August, I should have my Model S in my driveway by October! I hope you are right! :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can I sell you some calls
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Only a couple
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Do you have a return policy?!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Man, I think we have bought too much into the whole notion that positive posts cause stock declines...

    The stock is having a good run this week. That is a positive thing that makes me glad.

    Check out the nice bounce in the weekly chart:

    may1.JPG
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    > I feel like we'll see $350 by . . (insert date here).

    One should take advantage of the volatility. If I see a rise of at least 10 with leveling off, then half of position gets sold. Pull trigger at or near next trough. Repeat. Add regen to TSLA.
    --
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    In my case I will start selling options at around $230 or $240 and keep it up until it gets to my super-bullish target of $350, at which point I'll sell everything and keep only my core position. I have only September expirations right now I figure if this ER is not good for the stock the next one will be and might save my options. I also have enough cash to do this again if the stock goes down and/or not up enough. I figure trying to get a 10 bagger in options 10 times and succeeding at least 2 times is a much better use of a given amount of cash then buying something more conservative. Of course, I should add, this is money I can afford to lose and I held on tight through the dips so I think I have a high risk tolerance.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Green is Green. I'll take it.

    Hopefully we continue the relatively steady march into ER.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not sure if this is the right place to post, but I prefer not to start a new thread as the news might die off, so I will post here.

    Malaysian Gov released preliminary report on MH 370 disappearance. The relevance to this forum is that some news agencies are mentioning, quote: "The report also revealed that 2.5 tons of lithium ion batteries had been stowed on board."

    TV stations and newspapers in Australia are mentioning the presence of lithium ion batteries on the plane and speculating on the possible fire scenarios as these batteries are "known to cause fire".

    The perception often trumps the facts. My concern is that the news like these might contribute to shaping the public perception of li ion batteries. The average person hearing such news does not usually bother to investigate.

    I hope that the plane is found. Knowledge of what happened might provide some closure to so many people that have lost their loved ones. All air travelers also need to get better understanding of what really happened.

    In the absence of facts, speculations might go wild. I hope that will not happen, but I am concerned.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Being a super bull I want to post a video from last year:
    http://www.allreadable.com/vid/cnbc-analyst-andrea-james-defends-her-$200-price-target-on-tesla-motors-shares-783214.html

    And offer a reminder that Andrea James thinks the stock will be at $360 by next February. Maybe she isn't as super bullish as me but it sure got close to $200 not long after she set that target.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Given Elon's reaction to the 787 ordeal last year, I'm not too worried about aviation specific lithium-ion batteries. That said, the report does not specifically satte the nature or purpose of those batteries. Were they actually used for the plane, or just in transit? Either way, I'm not terribly concerned given Tesla's effort to prevent thermal runaway.

    In other news, jobs report looks good. Wonder what sort of day we'll get. I'm hoping for a couple +% but like the rest of you, I have no sweet clue.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Than why not just let it drop. I realize I am doing what I am faulting others for but there have been other topics that we won't let drop like the lemon issue ok I am done will not comment further on issues buried
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It is so quiet this time before ER, anyone else feels the same?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Saving all the fun up!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Very quiet. I'm trying to drum things up by being super bullish. I kind of am actually super bullish as well but I'm very excited for his ER but it seems like no one else is. We are going into this one with the stock beat up for the first time since things started getting interesting with last years Q1 report. I'm convinced either this one or the next one will be huge. I also don't see much downside on this one but I guess we'll see.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the malaise comes from TM guidance from last ER indicating that the production ramp up would be seen more in the second half of the year, and unknowns about when the announcement about the Gigafactory partner(s)/build site and the much anticipated model X production. In addition, the geopolitics and recent beat up of some other 'tech' and/or 'momos' after some decent ERs has got everyone worried.
    The good news is that we don't have a lather building up about huge delivery numbers/expectations like we had in Q3 2013.

    While I would like to see some great numbers/guidance and a steady run up of TSLA, I would be happy with good numbers/guidance, stable TSLA price in anticipation of a blow out Q2/Q3 that I believe is more of a certainty ( disclaimer: Nothing in investing is a certainty!)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The lack of lather is what makes me excited about this earnings report. I feel like if it is so-so not much will happen and we will sit where we are and maybe uptrend and end up somewhere 10-20% higher going into the Q2 report. But if it is good to great I think the move will be bigger because the expectations seem to be rather low. But I agree there are no certainties and the only thing I know for sure is that the price will fluctuate.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon's interviews and tweets used to drop cryptic hints for us, he has since stopped.

    Some of them were:
    - His prediction of "Tsunami of hurt" for TSLA shorts during an interview back in 2012.
    - There was the "I won't talk about hyper loop until Tesla is profitable for 2 quarters" said in an interview and then tweeted "Will publish Hyperloop alpha design by Aug 12.", one could infer good things...
    - Last annual shareholder meeting foll up tweet - "just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out." - big time confidence booster for shareholders
    - When rumor of sales peaked and "what are they doing?" last year he tweeted" Improving service and honing manufacturing efficiency are the biggest short term challenges. Not sales constrained."

    Too bad he stopped dropping these clues. They were really great for investors to read between the lines.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Even he thinks we are overvalued atm. He doesn't want to be held to any promises.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is not true for multiple reasons. Not only did he not say that, he also hasn't said it "at the moment." Also, the CEO runs the company, he's not a stock analyst, he's not the market as a whole, he can't see the future, it's not up to him to decide how "overvalued" it is or what the price will be on any particular date.

    What he has said is that Tesla will have to work hard to justify the current valuation. Everyone knows this and everyone has known this forever. That's how every single company works, always, by definition. The stock value always takes into account future performance. So the statements he has made about stock valuation have been nothing but factual, not a judgment call in the slightest, and every time someone talks about this and I ask them to post a quote of Elon saying the stock is overvalued, guess what? They can't. Because he hasn't. And it wouldn't matter if he did. And this has already been discussed a million times.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright. No need to get riled up about it.

    Elon has his hands full with SpaceX. He's got enough to talk about there for both companies.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    i don't see anyone " riled up", I only see clarification.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And, further, Elon recently stated that he thinks the company is fairly valued. Can't recall which video but it was far more recent than the "over-valued interview".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    That was a while ago, but regardless, to your point:
    He just raised a couple billion on it's value. What he gonna say, I ripped you guys off! Don't think so, and I doubt he does either. I think Elon's days of openly speculating on the current value of the stock are long gone, as they should be
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes I do remember this. At around ~25B mark he said it is fairly valued with a lot of potential but they have a lot to deliver.
    �
    • Người đăng: vào lúc

    Không có nhận xét nào:

    Đăng nhận xét

    Đăng ký: Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)