Thứ Năm, 27 tháng 10, 2016

Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements part 25

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thread in the news section about the overwhelming crowds that showed up at Fremont for the Tesla job faire. Caused a massive traffic jam. Supposedly 2000-4000 possible new jobs for expanded Model S and Model X production.

    Free advertising!

    What does this potential expansion mean for production capacity? This is surely a hint of what we can expect in the next 2 years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Last time I heard such is back to November 2013 when TSLA free fall to $13x range, in a TV interview, Elon said currently ($13x) it is a reasonable price for the company value. In other cases, Elon just said the current value is more than Tesla can deserve, but it'll be justified in longer term.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This interview was close. Key point is achieve that value and more.

    Elon Musk: Tesla Stock Price More Than We Deserve - YouTube
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Hey, thanks for the heads up. Great news that they're hiring. 2000-4000 new jobs seems like a lot (considering Tesla had 5,859 total employees at end of 2013). But if it's true, it means this 2nd production line is coming together and they're really looking to ramp up.

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well that is a nice start especially with the rest of the market being down. Of course if we have a big run-up into earnings I'll be afraid for a q3 repeat. Still, I won't sell much since they are all September calls.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I may have sold a bit early but I did just sell half my position in May 9 200 calls. Had to take some money off the table and the other half is 'house money' now.
    I continue to hold the Sept and LEAPS (still red, but less so)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I sold my May17 200 calls just now at 215. Still have a few June calls and a delayed construct bull call spread to catch a spike.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    With respect to everyone here, I think many of us here on TMC have been way too focused on production numbers for this ER, and not as focused as perhaps we should be on China developments and Panasonic partnership possibilities raised by the Panasonic ER data we dissected. I am bullish on the relatively bearish TMC sentiment right now and I think people are being too conservative with future earnings potential that should translate to a higher current valuation given the data we have available.

    I'm also bullish on the fact that the market shrugged off the downing of attack helicopters in Ukraine on Friday, which means total panic may not be in the cards over Ukraine (or it may again, one never knows).

    Tesla's strength this morning in the face of the Chinese PMI data and a red NASDAQ is a very bullish indicator to me.

    Now if you can all tank the stock back to 190 so I can buy some cheap calls, that would be great, mmmkay? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm hoping for a pullback to 200 or below pre-ER, then I can get back in on some short-term calls!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'd add to this the fact that Tesla seems interested in hiring a lot of workers. Hard to maintain the "plateauing demand" bear cry in the face of such news.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, looks like now is the time to get the hedging in place with put prices plummeting. I'd love to see us stay at this level going into ER, but who knows.

    edit: Reading the "Tesla Moments" thread is a horrible idea when trying to determine Short-Term investment strategy. I left that thread wanting to take out a secodn mortgage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What he said! Yes indeed, that job fair made me even more bullish -- and proud to be a Tesla investor.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Even if S demand was plateauing (which might be true in certain locales, but certainly isn't true on a worldwide measure), Tesla would still need to hire a bunch of folks to handle the Model X production demands and get them trained and so forth. The fact Tesla is hiring now is very encouraging.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, no matter how you slice it, hiring that many people is a good thing.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    if it holds true to other qtrs, you might see that on wed. based on prior report dates may drop 10-20 pts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A massive chunk of the market is expecting TSLA to tank after this ER. I see profit in betting on the other side of this trade, and have dipped in accordingly. I think so much negativity has already been priced into our valuation that a bone or two of good news might send us back where I think we belong, in the 240's or above.

    I am also nearly certain that Elon is taking this "plateauing demand" meme crafted by the shorts very personally, and that he is pissed about it. He may toss a zinger out to silence that myth, because he knows that with little marketing budget, the press they get from each ER is one of the most important free marketing moments they have right now and he wants to maintain the Tesla mystique and sexy brand identity that we know and love.

    We shall see.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Some interesting notes today on BMW exceeding guidance based on stronger than expected sales in china. I would be very interested to see if EM follows suit by spending a decent amount of time talking about china launch, superchargers, government cooperation, overall demand.

    i just used my tsla post earnings kitty to pick up post-lockup twtr shares and options, so I guess I'm firmly in the TSLA "hope it goes up" camp
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    As you wrote Flux, we shall see, but I think that's a very good point that there's quite a good chance Elon has some ready words in response to the "plateauing demand" that's being spun without any hard evidence.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    I mostly agree with this, but I believe the direction of the post-ER price movement will be decided well in advance of the conference call and will probably not be reversed by any remarks Elon might make.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Time will tell.:wink: I have almost the opposite opinion. I think that the stock will move some up or down bases on the financials but the 'kicker' will be guidance or lack thereof to really propel it one way or the other. In essence, I look for a 'neutral' financial (pretty much what was previously guided for) that the market will interpret how ever the market (read autobots) sees fit and that Elon's comments (along with use of ZEV credits) will be the kicker
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I like this drop today. I sold my weekly puts for a small profit (20%) and got some more calls expiring next week. If it goes down more tomorrow, I will pick up some more calls, and if it goes up tomorrow I will hedge the calls I just bought by selling calls to create a risk free bull call spread.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well the superstitious part of me is happy to see the selloff.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I take it you're buying some calls right about now?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    My news feed is full of negative headlines. The FUD machine is going full steam ahead! I find this funny, but I suspect the shorts won't be laughing over the next few years.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Wow... what a drop. I bought in at several points, including when we briefly dipped below $200. Mostly calls in the $210 range.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Like clock work
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    If the whole market didn't dive today we'd be in the green at the moment.

    Edit: Take it back. Of course when I post something it decides to go down further.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Looks like I need to get Seeking Alpha Pro.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What you don't know is that there is also Seeking Alpha HF Direct, which delivers the articles in machine-readable form. Just another 666 ms earlier, but that is enough for them. ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it just some json/xml structure?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Right, it could easily be for real... ;)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What are the chances we close at exactly $200
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ugh...

    :rolleyes:

    I'm buying May 7 3:00CST 199 Calls atm for .005 I think we'll close at 200.00 on the dot today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Option implied volatility still increasing, now 170% for many May 9th options...

    I find this quite surprising, considering that not many people seem to have a definite view of what will happen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    We know it is either going back to $265 or it is visiting the 200-day. Volatility is the only certainty today.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think the question should be "what are the chances we open at $220?" :D
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm not so certain of that though...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or Q1 report and Elon's Q&A will be balanced and it stays between $198 and $215, waiting for further instructions. :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Q3 was balanced.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    completely disagree. Q3 was the only call in the past 4 or 5 where Elon did not discuss substantial parts of the long term strategic road map and exciting announcements around the corner, and his tone was rather beat in contrast to his typical crisp and confident tone.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Anyone have any thoughts on my situation while I can still trade?

    I've got Puts that are up nearly 80%, in fact, they are worth several times what my June Calls are (Down 90%). I'm really, really debating just selling them now and avoiding whatever comes after 16:00. At least this way, I'm limiting the amount of money on the table, although I'm unhedged.

    With the impending IV collapse and the fact that most of my calls have disintegrated, this is a nice chunk of cash to have back in my pocket.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It might make you feel better that most days before earnings are heavily down days. If I were to play it safe I'd sell some puts and wait it out if I believed that this report was going to be good.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm surprised the trading volume is so low the day of ER - maybe it's just general level of uncertainty for TSLA everywhere (not just in TMC!).
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks Cwin. I guess I'm mostly coming to terms with the fact that if the report is bad, I might win some with the Puts, but the IV crush will hinder those gains and losing the last 10% of my Calls at this point is peanuts. If the report is good (and the market reacts as we think it should) I'm already set up for a slow recovery via LEAPS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm going in guns blazing with calls folks. Good luck to all.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm kind of in the same spot. I don't have any calls, but I've got puts that I'm really trying to convince myself that I shouldn't sell right now. It's play money, but they've gone up 100%.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I admire your courage.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I've got a bunch of Jan 2015 $300 LEAPS (are they even LEAPS at this point?) that I bought when the stock was around $220. I'm mostly hoping the ER gets those to get near break even soon so I can roll those out to 2016.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I bought the same ones when the stock was ~$250. Actually, I rolled some $155's into those. D'oh.

    Holding the Puts. It's a pricey insurance policy, and I hope I don't need to use it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well I still have 10 contracts of Jan '15 $400 LEAPs... But I've figured they are so far OOM that it can't get much worse even if there's a selloff of 10-20$ so I'm holding onto them over the ER. If it's a positive surprise they'll bounce faster than other stuff I have so might provide a nice increase. If it's a crapshoot, then I'll liquidate them tomorrow and move it either to stock or to lower strike LEAPs.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I am feeling the way others on the board are, i'm bullish regarding the ER but I have no idea how the market will respond. I sold some calls a couple of days ago and those are doing good, I just used some of that money to buy some puts. First time I've done this but I feel it's house money and I feel better having a bit of short term insurance. I am holding my core position of shares.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm going into this one with nothing but common shares, no hedges. Lots of cash at the ready.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, I have my position. It is shares and '16 leaps. In theory I shouldn't care about 1 day, 1 month or 1 quarter, but still I hate red candles.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Is it Q3 all over again...?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, yes and no. Do you expect a Tesla to catch on fire tomorrow?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Nice. JB on the call.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    happy I bought those puts, now I need to unload them before we bounce. I'm confident the stock will recover quickly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It might be profitable to crash a Tesla on purpose for some of these shorts.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    Yep. That's a first
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And who's the idiot typing constantly as a background noise :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Okay market, you got the big panasonic announcement you wanted.... and TSLA still 184-185. What else could you want?!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Panasonic was expected. The market wants more than expected.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think it is taking the market time to absorb. There's a lot of information today and I think it will take a little time. Could be tomorrow, could be later. But the big question marks are getting answered.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "Sold out through Q2 production"
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ramp for X will be much sharper than S
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Fast production ramp for X vs slow ramp for MS.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Elon talking about the microstructure of graphite in the anode. I love this from a CEO! It's just so uncommon for a CEO to be so extremely knowledgable about the tech and products.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    "When I was a child, I was extremely scared of the dark. Then, I read that darkness is really just a relative lack of photons and the visible spectrum, and why would anyone be scared of that?"
    - Musk, 2011
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. He just said "molecules" now. I love it when he talks dirty.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    NOW.... someone needs to ask about the titanium shielding...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    its in the release. It's a $2m one time charge in Q1.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which is less than 100 bucks a car all told. I had guessed a max of 200 per car after adding a big fudge factor.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh thank you - read it way too fast while watching the stock slide on my other screen :(
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    some lame questions. NA demand? again. not gonna be fulfilled anytime soon, especially with all the SC's coming the next 2 years
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    They want him to KNOW what happens in the future?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I think I'm going to put in a bid for some 200 weeklies for like a dollar or something. I could see us rebounding when people get their heads out of their asses cause that call was stellar.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You and me both. Hopefully getting a head out of an ass takes less than 48 hours!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Can't agree with you more. Breaking ground on first Gigafactory site next month, Panosonic is in (duh), Super efficient line is coming on in July, The ramp of the model X will be fast so in the spring of next year (approx) there will be another huge jump in deliveries, Oh yea and they are very confident on 30 percent reduction in pricing and very likely to exceed that number. So much good stuff. Not sure how my June option will play out but my shares loved everything in this report.

    I wish TSLA had their earnings call and shareholder letter released on Friday so everyone had a couple of days to process the news. Its crazy how every article is so negative.

    On a side note someone please make some calls and figure out which Nickel Factory in Canada Tesla is working with for me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Guys I'm not super bullish anymore. Or to put it better, I think we'll hit $350 by _insert date here_. Also, I learned that I am human and I am not well prepared for a big sell off. I am not completely unprepared, I suppose, but I could have been better prepared. Anyway I must admit guidance staying the same is less than I had hoped for. That being said, everything else reported in the call was good. So I am more confident than ever in the company.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This drop is seriously ridiculous
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just another buying opportunity here. Longs like myself absolutely LOVE days like these. But for those interested in charts, see attached fibonacci retracement. the 78.6% resistance level coincides with the 200 ema on the weekly chart as well. I'm looking for $162 to be the absolute lowest potential buying opportunity.

    fibretrace.png
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, barring some miracle later this year, my TSLA investment is a complete loss. I had taken the rolling LEAPS plan, buying J15 $300's a while ago when TSLA had dropped down, averaging purchases around when it was $220 overall. While I thought TSLA might drop some from $220 and hitting $200 on little news didn't overly scare me, this massive drop after a good Q1 wasn't something I had envisioned at all. I bought a few times on the way down and I'm out of money to leverage down.

    In pre-market, we're back below the old ATH we had before last year's crash.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    FWIW, my plan has appeared to work so far. I just sold some very ITM puts for 200% gain. The proceeds from this have almost perfectly offset the loss in my calls and J15's. It's not ideal, but I'm happy with how I've managed the damage so far and I now have cash on hand. What to do with it though...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Gratz c041v. Wait a few days and buy in again.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Shoot, I tried to buy something, I still have the limit order out there. But right now I am nowhere near it.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks. Had I been ballsy enough to exchange the puts for calls, <at this moment in time> I would have been laughing all the way to the bank. Unfortunately, right now I need either find a funnier joke, or a closer bank.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Since many hundreds (or was it over 1,000) of last minute deliveries to Norway at quarter end proved to in fact be what saved Tesla from a disastrous quarter, do you feel different about your comment above?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Or you could be wondering why you put money on a bounce.

    EDIT: See what I mean?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Proud owner of some shiny new LEAPs right here. Basically the bet is that TSLA is above $265 (the previous ATH) before Jan 2016. Seems like a pretty safe bet to me.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest

    This is is an great time to get LEAPs, congrats.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Threw what pocket change I had in my account at TSLA this morning. Worked great, for about 15 minutes. Now I don't have any pocket change either :rolleyes:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Doug Kass is getting a ton of praise on Twitter and claims that he's found the hole in the Tesla story. Granted, I look like a dumb dumb when I tweeted him, but like I Elon I lose a lot of battles but hopefully will win the war.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Not J15? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Oh, I fully expect we'll see $265 again before the year is over. That's why I think it is such a safe bet.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I went on a LEAP shopping spree today as well, including J15's. The conference call gave me plenty of confidence to pull the trigger. Breaking ground on the Gigafactory next month? That just blew me away...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    What hole does he claim he found?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The one in his head? :)
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The good news for longs is that a further ten percent fall from here is only 17 dollars down, instead of 20.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    So this drop obviously sucks and there's no reason for it (not even a bad reason for it), but I have to say I'm a lot more fine with it than the last one(s). The stock is still extremely high compared to all my entry points, all my non-speculative plays are still doing fine, and I managed to sell enough to cover most of my debit at the top (and since have gone into a little more debit on the way down :p). I'd like to see a 10% recovery or so in the next 2 weeks, but if that doesn't happen then I'm still not out all that much.

    Now I need to decide if/when I want to become a buyer again, and it's looking pretty attractive right now, but I would have to use margin to do so. Either way, I've got a ton of margin left, and shouldn't have to worry about a call unless we have another 50% drop or something.

    Also, this ER, just like Q3's, was very positive, and the call was phenomenal. Everyone just seems to be reacting to the headlines, and to the stock price, rather than what was actually announced. So I feel like this is another temporary drop with no good reasons behind it, just like q3 was, only this time we hopefully won't have months of the entire mass media trying as hard as they can to make the drop seem justified by making something out of nothing.

    Unfortunately I don't see analysts upgrading their PTs, because most of their PTs are already set fairly appropriately, but maybe one of the few remaining loser analysts might get it together and give a real PT with a real research report for once, kind of like Goldman finally got around to doing last time around. I also don't see anyone downgrading, because there's simply no bad news and plenty of good news.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Used 1/2 of my available 'investment' cash to add stock and LEAPS J16 200's and 250s and a last minute May 9 180 for $2 Willuse another 1/4 if 160 and last 1/4 at 140. I don't trust myself with margin :wink:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I feel like for a moment, I had the pulse of the rigged Wall Street game played by the market makers and HFTs, and beat it at its own game. But today, they kicked my tiny little retail ass.

    Nova Scot sums up how I feel today. He's a veteran member over on Sleepy and Norse's forum. Hope he doesn't mind me posting this here:

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thank you for that post. Now that explains it. That's the answer to my question, which was why the price drop, it makes no sense. So it's probably the result of behind the scenes manipulation. I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories but there you are.

    Tesla is doing good. The news was good. Any sane person would have wanted in. The price drop and the headlines of doom and gloom offended my sense of reality, so thanks for that post. I'm not crazy, yay.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    At least with TSLA, I knew right away that it would go down today. But with JASO, it had a great ER, beat all estimates, and gave good guidance; and the stock still got crushed.

    JASO is the one that makes no sense at all. Same goes for FSLR the other day: went up 5% AH on ER. Started up 5% pre-market and then crashed during the day for no reason. With TSLA it was pretty obvious that it will be a down day based on ER...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I'm still not grasping why. Tesla met or beat what they said they'd do. Why was it obvious to you that meeting/beating guidance would be a bad thing?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Because they usually beat by a lot more. 10-15% on deliveries at least, not 0.8%. if you fail to beat by your usual beat, is it still a beat?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Based on what happened to FB and others, yes.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    All I can say is, compared with the heavy losses in my Jan15 options (unrealized yet), when I look at my stock position it feels like a paragon of safety. I *so* don't care if the stock falls another 30%. I know it will come back even if it takes years.

    My options... they were so pretty when they were young, now they are old, shrunken and ugly.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yes. Duh. A beat is a beat, the future exists, and things actually happened over the last 6 months, no matter how much you try to deny the reality of all these things.


    I feel similar about my options, but they were purchased mainly as stock replacement for the shares/LEAPs I sold at 240ish, intended to capture upside if things kept going up, while limiting downside to some extent, and in that case they seem to have done well at doing so. And they've got over a year and a half to make their way back (I have all '16s). Should have sold some more I suppose but I was stupidly scared by the tax man. Oh well, I would have just spent it on other options by now anyway :p
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Dude I'm not the one in denial. Give me an explanation for today's price action that isn't "you just aren't listening, you just don't understand the company, the market doesn't want tesla to succeed, HFT's did it" and I'll buy some options if its convincing enough.

    I've done my best to expain where I'm coming from, what my thinking is, why I think earnings were received the way they were and where I think it will take us into next week.

    Why don't you give it a shot.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are explicitly in denial. You are saying a beat wasn't a beat, and that stock prices have nothing to do with future expectations for a company. There is no way to reconcile either of those statements with reality.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You want an explanation? Its very very simple. Wall Street is rigged by large Hedge Funds, who basically conspire to push up certain stocks they target (of course they own them for low money), when they've run up to sufficient nose-bleed money, they take their profits, and begin shorting.. They wait for some bad news, or event, and call their "news" buddies to push out stories of overvaluation, doom and gloom, whatever it takes to create panic for the retail investors, who promptly panic sell, and start the process of driving the price down.. some time goes by, they hedgies cover their shorts, and start buying again. miracle of miracles, "good news" stories and positive press starts appearing on the company, and they ride it up again. rinse and repeat. It's very difficult to watch, and should be illegal, and these funds should be prosecuted, they are basically thieves, robbing people. this has been going on in the market forever, but we thought TSLA was "special", turns out TSLA isn't special. I say hang in, because what goes around, comes around. TSLA will execute on their long term plan, Elon has delivered on every thing he's stated so far, maybe later than was promised, but he's always gets it done. TSLA will one day be the most valuable company on the NASDAQ, long after no one remembers Facebook, Twitter, etc.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And you've offered no better explanation other than "You are wrong". C'mon, if I'm so out of touch with reality then give me a new model of it to work with.

    - - - Updated - - -

    This gets pulled out everytime someone loses their butt on a momentum stock. "THE RICH MEN DID IT, THE HFTS DID IT, THEY WANNA TAKE MAH MONAH" it doesn't explain anything, it just pushes responsibility for your bad decisions onto someone else.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    For a master class in the dark arts of market manipulation, listen to Jim Cramer explain how he used to move the stock of RIM, Apple, and others because it was "legal, and very satisfying."

    Those who haven't seen this before: do yourselves a favour and give it a listen.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You came in here guns blazing talking about how you know exactly what the stock is going to do and nobody should buy it until you give your say-so because your crystal ball which predicts the future which you don't think exists says shorting is the only safe thing to do. This is nonsense. Then you went on to say that the company has done nothing for the last 6 months, that apparently the stock didn't rise in that time period, that future performance has nothing to do with stock prices, that 10 is a bigger number than 12, and so on. And you want me to respond to this paragon of reality-acknoledgement to answer some random moved goalpost of a question which hasn't been part of the discussion all along, and claim victory if I refuse to play your game. Because I haven't talked about what I think is about to happen, nor have I talked about my explanation for what happened, and neither has been my intent, all I've done is counter the aforementioned nonsense you keep laying down over and over in every thread, and that has been my whole objective here.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yep!

    You have to think like Wall St., and for that reason I thought that it would be a good idea to stay away from this TSLA ER. I even wrote a few cautionary posts before ER.

    TSLA really needed 9k- 10k delivery guidance for Q2 to get back to positive momentum and have a chance to retest ATH.

    Wall St. was set to sell no matter what. Only reason that SCTY went up big is because Wall St. Is very ignorant and they don't understand solar. Everyone here on TMC knew that SCTY will do close to 1GW next year, but Wall St. did not know and got blindsided with 2015 Guidance.

    Otherwise SCTY ' S ER was a miss and the stock would have tanked today. Lyndon and Elon knew that the stock would tank probably back into the $30 ' s so they gave 2015 guidance to turn this around. I mean after all, nobody gives next year's guidance in May...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I have no bad decisions, my TSLA average buy in is $81, I'm fine. My 5 Jan16 230 Calls on the other hand, well, they've lost 1/2 their value, they still have 18 months left, that's forever for TSLA. The market is heavily manipulated, the trick is to figure out how, and play the same game. I'm in it for the long term, 2020 or so, so these gyrations don't bother me much... hurts a bit to see $40K vaporize in 3 days, but it's par for the course.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Well, still doesn't make much sense to me. A company says we'll do X. People decide X is worth some stock price. Company does X, just like they said. Everyone panics and sells?

    The market is insane. I suppose insane in both rise and fall, but insane. It'd seem to make giving guidance pointless. Why does Tesla even bother?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Cwin, I don't consider Tesla a momentum stock. Yes, the move from $190 down to $120 in the fall and the day or two jump from $210 to $265 had large momentum aspects, but the move from $30 to the $200 range was not a momentum move.

    I think Tesla's move over the past few years is much more about fundamentals than traders and momentum. Think of Tesla like a biotech. Basically, between the fall 2012/spring of 2013 they went from substantial risk of going bust to having their first significant drug, the Model S approved by the FDA followed quickly by stellar write ups in the New England Journal of Medicine (i.e. Consumer Reports, Motor Trend...), leading to rapid strong uptake by physicians (sales to date far outpacing what Tesla was suggesting in 2012). In the 9 months since, they've entered the European market and they are now entering China. They've also got this drug slated for approval in a second indication with an equally big market to the first indication in 6-9 months, that being the Model X on the Model S/X platform. Finally, they have a derivative compound, the Gen III platform, which is in Phase 3 testing, and has a far larger addressable market, roughly 10X, than the first drug they've passed. The company has shared very encouraging data on trials to date on this Gen III drug, and it has a very high probability of approval circa 2017.

    Small biotechs riding completely on their first drugs approval can and do go up 2 or 3X on FDA approval. Expanding into the EU and Asia, is likely going to expand Tesla's revenues 3X. A biotech whose first and only drug gets approval in a second indication with an equally large market can double. Whey you look at the magnitude of these events, Tesla's 7X move from $30 to $210 is a value move, not "momo." Tesla's revenue growth from 2011 through today and what's projected the next 3 and 5 years also parallel a biotech winner.

    while it's worth noting the "momo" tag given Tesla (and as I said there is a small aspect of the move for which this is accurate), and realizing Tesla is likely to go down more than average in a sharp selloff, ultimately, the move since 2012 has been based on fundamentals, and if there is such a selloff, Tesla's fundamental value will lead to a rebound in TSLA that will simply not be seen by any stocks it is currently being lumped in with whose recent gains were predominantly "momo" based.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Jesus, at least I go through the trouble of formatting my aforementioned nonsense.

    I posted my explanations for whats going on. If it's wrong then give a better one. I've done it without insulting you or talking down to you, or have at least tried.

    Everyone hear comes to these forums to learn and share. At least do it for the benefit of other idiots that might be thinking like me.
    �
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