Thứ Sáu, 28 tháng 10, 2016

TSLA Investor Discussions part 6

  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Web sites purporting to tell you what companies to invest in are invariably nonsense. If the writers knew what companies to invest in, they'd be rich and would not need to work as writers. That's why the Motley Fool is garbage, while Planet Money is a great program. The former tells you where to invest your money; the latter presents stories illustrating concepts in economics.

    If they've invited you to write articles, and if you have the time to do it, then you definitely should. You could counteract some of the FUD. I wouldn't even mention the doofus. I'd talk about the underlying economics of electric propulsion, sustainable energy, and the reduction of pollution.
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    Agreed but remember, it's an investing site. No bashing of technologies or singling out companies that are disrupting the current paradigm, snippy insults to commenters, complaining to SA about stalking posters or bragging about your place of residence. It's an investing site.
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    One well written article with verifiable facts would undo an entire year of jp! You should do it right.
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    With the worries coming from the Greece and other European countries I wouldn't be surprised if they had a big impact on Tesla stock. Right now it's hoovering around $28, with all the bad news we've been getting from Europe I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to mid-lower $20s.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    If Greece keeps worrying you, why not raise some venture capital and buy it? You need $200b to cover the debts. The rest should be a bargain :tongue:
    Serious: The Greek slowly realize that big change must happen to end that crisis. None of the established political parties is up for that job because they all fed on that corrupt feudal-like system for decades and the Newcomers have no viable agenda. No one knows a good solution (or it would have been implemented years ago).
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Looks like there will be some really good buy opportunities in the coming days. Unfortunately, I don't have any more money to invest. Actually, I start doubting that deliveries of the car will make the stock go up too much. I think we have to wait until Europe's economy is stable before we will see the stock raise
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The first Model S delivered should help TSLA relative to the market. The trauma in Europe + weak job figures in US + sharp deceleration in China = bad news for the market. TSLA stock price generally tracks the market (which makes sense, given that the ability of people to buy new cars of any sort tracks economic well-being).
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  • 1/1/2015
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    It this keeps up I'll have to sell something to make money. And since I only have the Roadster as valuable item... I'll start with the winter tires, the cup holder for 2,50 $, then the soft top, following the brake system (don't need it).
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Which is why an article about the true value of electric propulsion and the management and engineering excellence at Tesla would be relevant for long-term investors looking for a company with real growth potential. There are speculators who consider themselves investors, who want to know how to make big money fast, and there are charlatans like the Motley Fool who pander to them; and there are people looking to invest for the long term, who want to know which industries are going to provide products people will buy in the future, and which companies are poised to meet those needs. You could provide solid information to the latter class of investors, and you could do it without bashing anyone or even mentioning the naysayers.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I got lately some shares at 28 and keep following it - I am in for the long run and will buy more if it drops further, wich would be a very good price imho.... my limit would be 2 more buy-ins with the same volume (with partly recapital. later on). The company is great and I do believe in what they do. Their products are well designed and quality materials are used (not many aluminium cars out there that do not rust). So for me this is a great investment oppurtunity.

    Go TESLA! :)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Got back in the moment it crossed the 80 and 200 day simple moving averages. I'll be watching it like a hawk, of course. It's not the 22nd yet. 8^D This is an incredibly volatile stock.
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    Retested the 27.50ish level and held. I think this bodes well for the short-term.
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    Got out at 28. It's not that good of a day in general. Fun to play, though!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Have any of you guys used Trefis.com?

    How useful of a tool is website like that? I've never delved much into stock valuation but I've always wanted to. Seems like it would be a good tool to use to estimate earnings and stock valuation.
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    guest

    Yes, I think Trefis has very good tools for stock valuation. I used their site to model TSLA at $54 per share next year. However �. you should not trade on my so so, do your own homework.
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    A few things:
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    Wunderlich said $42. Although stock analysts are notoriously unreliable, I suspect they're better than on-line tools run by a computer program. I think an 80% increase in value in one year is overly optimistic, though I do expect TSLA to rise gradually with the success of the Model S and successive models.

    Or maybe I misunderstand and you're just getting raw data from Trefis and making your own extrapolation. But I still think that $54 in a year is overly optimistic.
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    This is my very crude valuation. The luxury car market in the US is about 1 Milion vehicles, about the same for luxury SUVs. BMW alone sells about a quarter million luxury sedans. Tesla predicts it will sell about 20k Model-S vehicles, and a year later add 15k Model-X. If wealthy woman in their 30s-60s really like this car, the numbers will be much larger, perhaps 100k very quickly. So if we take 30k vehicles at an average $70k, pe=20 and margin 20%, I get $8.4 Billion or $80 per share.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I'm not talking about what's possible, but rather what I expect. And I expect Wunderlich probably has a better handle on likely valuations than any of us. But I'll be delighted if you are right. If it is at $80 per share any time in 2013, come visit me in Spokane and I'll buy you lunch. :)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Anything that drives the public's attention away from oil and toward alternative energy is going to "fuel" an increase in TSLA's value. It sure is amazing that it's being suppressed this close to the Model S release date. If you'd asked me a month ago, I would have said that the window on buying opportunity was closing fast. Now my gut says it will be volatile until the last minute. I'm ready for anything to happen.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I think the market needs to see actual profits before the stock price will rise. Remember, stock price is just what investors are willing to pay. While I make no predictions, it would not surprise me to see the price remain where it is now, or even a bit lower, until the quarterly reports start showing solid earnings. People who are not "plugged in" to the whole EV scene still think of EVs as impractical, due to range limitations and battery cost and their own distrust of battery life.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I disagree. Stock price is what investors are willing to pay for future earnings. Price should rise as investor confidence rises in Tesla's ability to earn $x.xx per share, long before they actually report such earnings.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Test drives news came out today, but does anybody know how many test drives cars they have produced. Is it just one car? If they already have several cars produced, in addition to Elon's and the board of director's, that could impact the stock price
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    Some of the dates overlap which requires multiple cars. Tesla announced 5,000 test drives in those 33 days of events. So an average of 150 drives per day and say 15 minutes per drive with boarding and exiting, you'd need 5 cars to do that many drives in an 8 hour day (not counting charging time). OTOH, with the ability to move some cars around the locations (example in California) that'll cut the requirement back.....I'm guessing that they would need at least 20 cars to make the whole thing work.
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    45 days
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    There are 33 days of test drives advertised.....spread out over 45 days. I take it that the time between events is taken moving cars around as otherwise there would be no need for end-of-event dates.

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  • 1/1/2015
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    Ahh Well played Nigel. (say with a haughty British accent)
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I guess I'm lucky since my wife is the perfect whole food, natural drink, ugg & lulu loving high end female consumer. I've seen it all. Tesla has never really been about CO2, enviornment and kwH/kg or miles/BTU etc... No, instead it's about having a trunk and a frunk, a cool touch screen and no visits to a stinky gas station. It's about no gears, no gas, a quiet ride, a great sound system and more than anything else - envy from the dear friends at private school who only have a Range Rover. You may see a few bumps, but TSLA will eventually sky-rocket. It's no favorite of Wall street now, but when it turns and the shorts run for the hills, this stock will go from 50% undervalued to 100% overvalued as wall street dumps oil for electricty. Have fun watching the price action! BTW stock price is a funny creature, for valuation I look at the 200 day MA. The daily price chart - speculation and technical trading.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I read some people are estimating that more than 160 signature holders have dropped out already. And this is only after about 550 of the 1000 sig holders have been called. What do you guys think? If about 30% continue to cancel their reservations, this is not looking very good. I still think that a lot of people will order after the first cars roll out and some journalists get their hands on one. Hopefully people are just downgrading to Performance or standard version
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's being discussed in another thread, where myself and others have noted that a good chunk of the 160 probably dropped out for other reasons (some of those reservations are years old) and most probably downgraded rather than chose not to buy at all. I read the Tesla main forums as well and I think only once or twice have I seen someone completely drop their Sig and those were due to personal situations (one moved to a different country).

    I am really curious what the P drop rate will be, but even my pessimistic nature doesn't really think you can extrapolate much from the Sig drop rate when thinking about the P drop rate.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, I think it is reasonable that these early reservations have a high drop-out rate. Later sig reservation holders had a lot more info to make their decision with, no changes in options, or differences in price from what they expected are going to deter the later sig customers, then knew all that before they got in.

    Also, from what I've seen, most sig holders have simply switched to a production performance model.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Source?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Just on the forum here, just like ckessel said. Sorry, don't remember which thread it was. I thought it would be interesting to discuss it in this thread as well, since no other threads talks about the stock price of the company
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  • 1/1/2015
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    You asked, and were answered, the exact same question in the other thread.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    You have to consider there are probably a bunch of people on the fence in the positive. I will buy one but with production being sold out for a year, why put down $5k now when I can wait and possibly get a more refined version almost right away.

    Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    regarding the 160 number ... rumors and guesses have a way of becoming facts, with no hard facts to back up. We need to be careful to state that 160 is a guesstimate (or else give a source, as Nigel requested). Next thing you know, a major news source will be quoting that as a drop out rate. That would be unfortunate.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Well, we have the Tally thread on the 160 numbers. We also throw out a lot of numbers in the forums (as is true with most forums) without citation, so consider how hard you want to enforce a "source required" change to the forums as that could get really problematic.

    My complaint wasn't actually that Nigel asked for a source, it's that he asked a second time time here after he'd already been answered in the other thread.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Thanks, hadn't seen that as it was also recent. Fact is that the 160 is a guess based on unofficial numbers which themselves should be taken with a grain of salt. It could be much higher or much lower.

    +1 Bonnie's comment.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Alright, I'll bite since maybe I'm not grasping something on the Sig reservation numbers. Can you explain how the Sig drop rate would be lower than 160?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    I wasn't saying that it was a requirement that should be enforced. It was simply a request that I found reasonable. People ask that of others all the time.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Aren't there something like a thousand Sigs altogether? I'm going to throw out a totally unfounded guess that many early Sig holders chose the Sig only because those were to be the first available to the public (after the founders' series, I suppose?) and now with the time upon us, some of them (16% if the 160 number is accurate) may have decided that after all they'd rather wait a bit longer and pay a lot less for a car with fewer options, many of which they may not want, and/or consider too expensive. I figure a no-frills Model S with the 85 kWh pack is around $20,000 less than a Sig, and while some (the majority at 84%, again if the 160 number is right) feel it's worth it, a few could be expected to save the twenty big ones and still have a luxurious 300-mile EV. And it's to be expected that a few people would find themselves in worse financial condition than when they placed their reservations, and have been forced to downgrade or drop out entirely.

    So I think some downgrades from Sig are to be expected, and I'll bet Tesla expected some number of them.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The Tally shows Sig numbers listed to 1,160. That is because on the Tesla Forum "Tikiman" noted that he had upgraded from the wait list to Sig #1,160. We know the original lists weren't always compressed as people moved and/or dropped out over time. As the list wasn't compressed it's certain that the numbering went over 1,000 even as the actual count was less than 1,000. This means that there might have recently been 1 cancellation/deferral or 160 of them. The TMC Tally has been useful and fun, but in total it's known to be ~10% off the official numbers Tesla quoted at the Q1 conference call.

    You might be right, but IMO the 160 number is a shot in the dark; it's just that these things gain a life of their own and it's being quoted and taken as fact already by many people.

    Here's an example of how things run out of control:

    • One Volt (not even an electric vehicle) catches fire three weeks after a crash test
    • A second volt catches fire a week after a test to simulate the first crash and coolant fluid is poured onto circuit boards
    • One Roadster owner through arguably complete stupidity "bricks" his battery

    Today on Jalopnik.com they wrote about Model S VIN #1 with the following snippet:

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  • 1/1/2015
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    I agree with Bonnie and Nigel that this is one of those things that could have unintended consequences.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Ok, I'm still lost.

    How do they get to (USA) Sig1160 without having 160 dropped reservations to free up spots? Unless they're not counting in linear order, which seems unlikely. Or they've purposefully over booked on Sigs, which also seems unlikely since there's a wait list to handle extra Sig requests.

    Now, I'm not saying 160 dropped recently, just that over the course of all reservation history 160 must have dropped to support a S1160 reservation number.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    They did have a block reserved at the front of the line for Roadster owners. A friend of mine, Roadster owner, switched to Sig just before they sold out & received a fairly low number. My assumption is that any non-Roadster owner would go to the end of the line.

    So say they had set aside the first 400 Sig numbers, but only had 200 Roadster owners put down a Sig deposit. Then the Sig numbers would go up to 1400, because # 201-400 would be unassigned. And that would be with zero dropout.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    That's a reasonable possibility, though Tesla announced "Sigs sold out" pretty much right when we say S1000 reported in the Tally thread.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The number is most likely due to churn of reservation holders; people coming and going. Statistically, 1.6% churn is not something I'd be concerned about. Now if TM had trouble selling all the Sig's that would be a different matter altogether.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    160 would be 16%, but your point still stands and I agree that that as long as Tesla keeps the Sigs sold out it's not something I'm really concerned about (from a TSLA stock point of view).
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  • 1/1/2015
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    People, I'd suggest that discussion on "Forum-generated" numbers should probably continue over on the other thread.

    @Bonnie: Merge?
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    whoops, yep, thanks!
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    You can bet this number will show up in a future JP article on Seeking Alpha.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Did you see his piece earlier today? He's already jumping on the "conversion rate is going to be really low" bandwagon. That's like 3 anti-Tesla articles in a weeks time. Seems like someone should get him a life.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    CNN Money isn't much better: 9 electric car stalls, misses, and crackups

    Anyone want to hazard a guess how they came up with that?!?
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Probably referring to the fact that they discontinued the Roadster, though the way they put it is extremely misguiding as that was a calculated move that is going exactly as planned. Furthermore, Roadsters are still being sold overseas, so "halt" is surely not the right word to use.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    It came from Peterson's article I bet which showed a graph of Roadster sales, of course are no longer being sold in the US. D-uh! What a bunch of whoey! We've been tracking sales numbers and know that they are averaging about 20 per day pretty consitently. These guys that write this crap should get a clue.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Well, while discussing the mythical 160 sig dropouts and such, no one seems to have said this today: OMG, the stock is up!!
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  • 1/1/2015
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    The people trashing Tesla really don't care about facts. They just want to trash the company and EVs in general, and they know a large part of their audience is ignorant and lacks critical thinking skills, so they say whatever will support their viewpoint, whether it's fact, distortion, or baldface lie.
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    EDIT,,
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    So true! This does not only apply to EVs but politics in general. Many of those trashing prefer to have an uneducated public who will drink the Kool-Aid.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Is it possible to know how many of the shorts are individuals actually choosing to short TSLA, and how many are the result of funds whose whole purpose is to short the market across the board?

    Edit: The shorts don't really concern me, because I'm looking to Tesla's growth in the long term, not waiting for a spike to sell. I'm just curious.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    So true gg_wants_a_tesla. The stock is up today! If this continues you can soon buy a Tesla just from selling the stocks:)

    Did Tesla ever state that they would not sell more than 1000 Signatures? If they didn't and they realized they had a lot of people on the waiting list, maybe they just decided to sell 1500 Signatures. Unlikely, but it definitely would be some well needed money for the company. However, I do understand that this wouldn't necessarily be good for the people who thought they were one out of 1000 sig owners.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Signature edition is definitely limited: 1,000 in US, 1,000 in Europe, 200 in Canada.
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    Repeatedly. Their FAQ page states it as well (Model S | Tesla Motors). 1200 is the 1000 US + 200 Canadian.

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    Tesla's Annual shareholder's meeting was today (6/6).
    Did anyone attend? If so, anything of interest to share with the forum?
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    There should be a link to a recording on the Tesla IR page soon. Anything big would be covered in a press release and the lack of one suggests nothing significant (in market terms).
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    SF chronicle article mentions the shareholder meeting

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    Russ Engle did and he's posted pics and info in various threads.
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    Seems like a recurring pattern is that it jumps at the beginning of the day, then profit-taking hits and it drops. Will that happen tomorrow? Serial number 1 being delivered today didn't seem to affect the pattern at all, which I find a bit eerie. Perhaps people simply didn't know?
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    EDIT,,
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    guest
    +1. I came into a small windfall so I'm waiting for the price to dip a bit before I buy some more. Interesting that news of the first one shipping shot up the price, though it could've just been people trying to pick up shares at a low price.

    I really don't expect to see a big jump in the price until after they report their earnings in January. I think a lot of people have conceded that Tesla will build and ship the Model S, their question now is if they can make money doing it.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Probably the safe play, but I'm somewhat counting on an earlier bump in the fall - enough deliveries, people see them on the roads, owners have done some video reviews, Elon announces the SuperCharger network, etc. Also, when Tesla reiterates that they won't need to raise additional money.

    How long did it take Consumer Reports to get a Fisker Karma? Do you think they got in the Signature que last December?
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    But maybe a "ballistic" short squeeze happens only if they are too surprised to consider all options and be a bit more patient? In that case we shouldn't warn them too much. ;)
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    EDIT,,
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    I agree that the expectation of on-time delivery of the pre-ordered Model S cars is already built into the price of the stock, so this month's start of deliveries won't push the price up, though a failure to deliver could push it down. I also agree that what the market it waiting for now is to see if Tesla can turn a profit.

    I'm not sure "inevitable" is ever a word one can use with respect to the stock market. But I agree that if the economy gets no worse and the Model S is successful, TSLA will start to rise with the growth of the company.
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    EDIT,,
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    Most certainly not. Spain is dragging everything down today, and once again, TSLA is a magnifying lens, exaggerating the overall market's movement.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    Did you guys watch the presentation and Q/A from the shareholder meeting? It is up on TM's website now.

    2012 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors

    There was definitely some new information. Some things I took away with me:
    1. Supercharger network announcement that Elon promised in July is going to have something to do with solar
    2. Tesla is doing something around battery swapping after all (this was a huge surprise to me)
    3. Elon has obviously given some thought (perhaps even had discussions w/ Larry Page?) to offering a self-driving Tesla
    4. Definitely 5-stars in all categories (not just overall)
    6. Break-even point is somewhere around 8,000 units a year

    I'm sure there were others, that's just what I remember off the top of my head.
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    EDIT,,
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    Supercharger stations that use solar and grid power to charge packs.... that you swap into your car as you arrive!


    ...not likely, I know.
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    EDIT,,
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    It wasn't clear to me from the Q&A whether the battery swapping thing was related to the charging network announcement or not. I imagine that the two are related, but didn't want to jumpt to that conclusion.
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    Uhh... anybody watching this?
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    2x to 3x crumple front crumple zone distance
    rear collision requirements are real low, so Model S resists 50MPH off-center rear collisions (4x to 5x better than requirements)
    millions of miles on the car through accelerated life testing
    1/10th to run Model S compared to similar performance premium sedans
    only all aluminum sedan made in north america
    aspiration is to have "no defect rate" as opposed to "low defect rate"
    every Model S is taken onto the test track
    Elon's Model S is indeed black
    June 22nd event will hand over 10 cars
    And now I have to leave, this is only about 10 minutes into Elon's talk...I'll finish this later today
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    Solar panels can generate about 150W per square meter in full sunlight. The 300 mile Model S has an 85kWh pack which can be fully recharged at a supercharger station in 45 minutes. That's 113.3 kW continuously, assuming perfect charger efficiency, so I'll round up to 120kW. In order to generate 120kW at 150w/square meter in full sunlight, you need 800 square meters of cells, or an array 28 meters on a side. But that's not realistic, because the sun is not directly overhead all day. In reality, you'd probably need an array 3 times that size. Something like 100 feet by 300 feet. Basically, approaching a football field.
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  • 1/1/2015
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    ^ Plus, most folks park their car in a garage when not driving it.

    That's the right way to use solar.

    I personally think that battery swapping is economically unviable, due to the large inventory of spare batteries needed, and the reluctance of people to accept batteries of unknown condition in return for their own new battery. It only works if the battery is leased, but in that case you're tied to the swap company, which only works if they have swap stations everywhere? and are solid enough they won't go bankrupt and the creditors take back your battery and leave you with a useless car.
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are making an assumption that all of the paneled stations would be supercharging stations. That isn't how the current and proposed infrastructure model works. No one is reasonably going to run their vehicle battery down to near-zero and then wait for supercharger availability. A more likely scenario is someone parking at work, running errands, or flying somewhere. I can run to Whole Foods and top off about 3o miles of "refueling" while I shop. That is just on a standard NEMA plug and for now, it's free to me as an enticement to shop there. I can do the same thing at any airport - drive in on a low battery and the car will be fully charged when I return.

    On the array, you don't have to have stationary panels. They could be mounted on a tracking array on the roof of a nearby building to provide the optimal angle for any given time of day, if you want optimal output. Tracking mounts aren't all that expensive, relative to stationary mounts.

    The biggest problem with using an array and panels (anywhere, any kind, and of any size) is that you can't store the juice unless it is hooked to some kind of battery backup syatem or is grid-tied.

    Instead of having a football field-sized grid (I didn't double check your calculations, but am going along with your assumptive model), you would want them to be part of a hybrid-grid-tied or just plain grid-tied system where you would generate some juice from the panels, sell the excess solar energy generated to the grid when the "fueling" stations aren't in use, and then take the net metering or net billing credit from the utility to offset the cost of the grid-pulled juice. You could still do supercharging in this manner and it would be more cost effective than either pulling all the juice from the grid or installing what would otherwise be an off-grid panel system that would be a waste of capacity when not at full utilization.
    Accounting for system efficiencies at every step in any kind of electrical power generation and utilization (especially solar) are critical.

    I'm off topic for this forum, so I'll quit, but there are many ways that Elon and company can tie Tesla and SolarCity components together to create a lot of really neat possibilities for infrastructure support - one company can enhance the other. It has great potential for a symbiotic relationship.
    ...if you build it, they will come! :)
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    pffffffffff many questions in q&a are answered in this forum, and are not relevant to the shareprice or companypolicy!
    are those people just there to get a bit of attention?
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I had to read that section 3 times!

    $5,000 to $10,000 dollars extra per car for selling credits? I know that won't last forever and it's just in CA (right?) but is this not something to tell all the "not a profitable company" naysayers?

    Huge I tell ya... Huge!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Eric, each of the 7 credits can fetch $5K-$10K! So, Tesla could rake in $35K-$70K from the 7 credits for each Model S! Now, that's beyond Huge!!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I mentioned this in the Boston Store thread...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Its illegal to cut out the middleman???
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Be prepared to be shocked. This was a company meant to disrupt and disrupt it will.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Color me shocked, and I can't wait to see this play out! Fight on GB!
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    k.

    .

    .
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    You are correct. They are reinventing automotive design/production, why not do retailing too.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It's there if you look at their financial statements. Something like $13 million from selling credits. I don't think they have made a big deal out of it yet because they only sell 500 Roadsters a year, so the impact on their overal revenue is very small. 20,000 units is a whole other story.

    The real question is, will there be enough companies like Honda that aren't making their numbers and need to buy credits? Supply and demand...
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Just listened to the webcast of the investors meeting and things sure look good. Elon just exuded confidence, no hedging on anything really. Not that he usually hedges :), but the whole demeanor of the presentation was really confident. Fantastic crash test results, a super charger network described as awesome in no uncertain terms, great reliability/maintenance costs, etc.

    All of it's been said before, but it really seems to have turned from "it will be great when we get there" to "we're there and we hit the target".
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    This is exactly what I took away. At one point he says something like "this is the safest car on the road". And it just kind of hit me that the car was on the road, not "will be the safest car on the road". Crazy.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yeah, great presentation by Elon. (Or, "St. Elon, the savior" as John Peterson mockingly calls him :))

    I was spontaneously applauding (at home) when he made the statement that the first couple of Model S cars have been delivered! Wonder why no one in the actual audience felt compelled to do so given how momentous the occasion is for the company :confused:
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Article worth reading: It's Time to Buy Tesla Motors

    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I dont put much stock in anything published by the Motley Fool crowd, although its nice to see the turn around after so many negative articles by those yahoos.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    IF there is demand, and all 20,000 units are sold, that's.... let's see... 20,000 x 7 credits each... 140000 credits x $5,000 to $10,000.... carry the one... $700 million to $1.4 BILLION.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    +1 i have to type more than 5 characters? I can't just type +1?? lol
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    A little weak on facts, the biggest one being the statement that the car to follow the X is the next Roadster; we all know that it's the Gen III mass-market car (and Elon confirmed this once again in yesterday's meeting) and that should be the reason for more optimism around the stock.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Yup. ~$1B a year for a company with a market cap of ~$3B. All of the sudden TSLA looks really really cheap.

    Again, I feel I must emphasize this is only IF they are able to sell all those credits. I think that is a pretty big IF. I'm working on trying to figure out what a reasonable expectation is, but there is lots of data to gather to do that.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    EDIT,,
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    And that is gravy money. They will be profitable on the cars as well.
    �
  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    It all goes to the same pot, but I think that they have probably already accounted for this income in their margin predictions for Model S of 25%. While we haven't thought of this until now, I don't think it has escaped Deepak. When you sell a car for $70k and then make another couple grand from selling the credits, it's a lot easier to make 25% profit on that car.

    I fully expect a secondary offering to fund BlueStar.
    �
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