Thứ Ba, 22 tháng 11, 2016

Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday) part 1

  • Mar 25, 2013
    jvonbokel
  • Mar 25, 2013
    Thread Summary
    Per a follow up tweet. The announcement was pushed back:
    ?@elonmusk

    "Slight change of date to ensure no end of quarter distractions -- will be Tues next week."


    The announcement turns out to be a lease program:
     Tesla Unveils Revolutionary New Finance Product | Press Releases | Tesla Motors



    Summarize the best guesses for the announcement below:

    • Tesla reveals gen3 concept
    • Official announcement of gen3 (however no concept car yet)
    • More Superchargers to be installed.
    • Tesla buys Fisker.
    • Separate Model S production to be set up in Europe.
    • Tesla/Elon to set up financing for the Model S.
    • Free solar for all Model S owners and all future Tesla car customers
    • Tesla to use "Phinergy" 1,000 mile Aluminum-Air battery in 2017/Gen3
    • Tesla to issue stock buy-back program to enhance shareholder value/eventually take TSLA private
    • Elon planning to be the first CEO to circle Mars with upcoming 2017 launch window
    • Google and Tesla to work together on a self driving electric car
    • Apple and Tesla to work on or develop the "iCar" (or Apple to invest heavily/buy Tesla, solving Teslas cash flow issues)
    • New battery packs/ Model S variants
    • Elon to literally "eat" his fortune
    • Tesla and SolarCity merge. Elon buys huge stake in new company.
    • Announcement of the tech tweeted as "some really cool tech that we can't talk about yet".
    • Tesla Model S leasing program.
    • Completion of 10,000th Model S production vehicle and exercise of 6.7M shares of stock.
    • EM: "in the future, all modes of transport will be electric - with the ironic exception of rockets". Elon will provide funding for new Tesla daughter that heads into electric aircraft development.
    • Elon repaying the DOE loan from his pocket
    • Teslamotors building the trucks that will transport SpaceX rockets
    • Elon to purchase Uber and convert the entire fleet to Model S sedans
    • Elon to fund development of a Solar Powerplant backed up with Tesla batteries.
    • Tesla will buy a shuttered automobile assembly plant in Europe for future production of Gen3
    • Expansion of Supercharging network and licensing its usage to other EV companies
    • Elon starts a new company to finance Tesla automobiles
    • Tesla reveals Model S with 110+kWh battery pack option
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    yobigd20
  • Mar 25, 2013
    ADN_ModelS
    TSLA going private? Leveraged Buyout financed by Elon...
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    Stoneymonster
    Elon hints major announcement....

    From a tweet a few minutes ago:

    "Really exciting @TeslaMotors announcement coming on Thursday. Am going to put my money where my mouth is in v major way."

    Let the wild speculation begin! :)
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    Mycroft
    He tweets that and the stock rockets up over 4%. Connected? Inquiring minds would like to know.
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    ElSupreme
    This would spark a short squeeze for sure.

    The 'my money where my mouth is' (emphasis mine) statement is quite intriguing.


    And what is with his new "Show me the monkey!" picture? I do have about 6 of those screaming monkeys though.
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    dadaleus
    Interesting that he refers to his money, not the company's. Rather than a buyout, my best guess is he's investing a bunch more cash in the company to help fund its next efforts (superchargers, model X, whathaveyou). This is after the company paid back its loans early. If true, it means he'd rather own more equity than let the government fund the effort at an interest rate. Pretty savvy as long as his bet that Tesla succeeds wins (which like most on here, I strongly suspect he will win this bet).

    Other funny thing about the way he says this is that Elon has always put his money where his mouth is. He made huge personal investments in getting SpaceX going and keeping it and Tesla going along, to the point of running out of cash. (Which is way different than being broke BTW especially with all of his equity in these companies, but still pretty amazing.)
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    ElSupreme
    I often look at the insider trading of TSLA, and it always is people exercise and then sell it off right away. A few sales here and there. And then there is Elon, always seemingly buying more. And I would venture that he knows something that we don't.
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    PopSmith
    Due to the "money where my mouth is" comment, I would also think TSLA could go private. If I remember right Elon mentioned that the company decided to go public because it was a more viable option at the time vs raising cash privately. (Someone please gently correct me if I'm off-base there!)

    Maybe Elon is going to pay off the government loan all by himself, although that seems very unlikely. :tongue:

    If it wasn't for Model X being delayed I'd say it's something to do with a sooner-than-anticipated BlueStar announcement (or possible reveal).

    Things I'm not expecting it to be:
    - A major expansion of stores or superchargers.
    - Another vehicle (i.e. a truck).
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    vfx
    Specs.

    He is going to buy 1000 Model S' for the US Government or charity.

    He is putting solar panels on the factory.

    Going to space? Hyerloop?
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    AnOutsider
    Going private might be a good idea... I'd imagine they could save a pretty penny not spending on all the regulatory overhead -- but if the cash was available for that, why the recent second round?
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    dadaleus
    I wish! But he did say it's a @teslamotors announcement. I suppose hyperloop could be done as Tesla Motors, but that'd be rather weird.
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    Citizen-T
    No way TSLA is going private and he made this tweet today. He'd be in jail on Friday. Lol.
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    mitch672
    It could be something like a stock buy back program, if they find they have extra cash, this is sometimes done to enhance shareholder value. It would also make taking TSLA private easier down the road (fewer shares availble), I doubt they would take TSLA private right now, but I think the heavy manipulation of the stock does weigh on Elon, and I'm betting he'd like to put a stop to it or slow it down.

    Edit: BTW, just checked twitter, Elon is now using his own picture (used to be one of his kids), he's holding one of those "Woot Monkeys", the caption is "Show me the Monkey" :)
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    ElSupreme
    Funny thing. I was talking to a guy in traffic last Friday. He was all about a Tesla truck, he was driving a 6 year old Dodge Ram 1500. And driving to work this morning I was behind a caravan of about 8 Georgia Power pickups (GM/Chevy I think). I used to think an electric truck was a small market vehicle, and I still do for private sales.

    But I imagine that EVERY POWER COMPANY in the USA (and Probably Canada) would replace all their ICE pickups with an electric version if there was a viable option. Power companies should be 100% behind electric vehicles, the load leveling, and potential sales, ability of charging cars at night would be enormous boom for them.

    Not to mention about 100% of the electricians I work with thinking an Electric truck would be a sweet ride, just at the right price. But honestly a lot of them already have pretty expensive trucks, and the fuel that they consume sure is expensive.
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    ADN_ModelS
    Perhaps its simpler than all this... Perhaps they're just announcing that they're profitable?
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    luvb2b
    a lot of twitter accounts have been hacked recently. has the company confirmed that it was him who tweeted?
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    ElSupreme
    I wouldn't imagine he would have use "my money where my mouth is" verbiage. And it would be a few days too early for a full Q1 result.
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  • Mar 25, 2013
    ADN_ModelS
    OK... what about a dividend!
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Zzzz...
    Has cell manufacturing been mentioned? Would be quite obvious to me. The have the fab space (Freemont is mostly empty). Move the cell making inhouse.

    - secure supply and make it predictable
    - no need to renegotiate the supply every now and then
    - add to the value chain
    - produce cells for tesla (automotive) and SolarCity (local storage) or even third party
    - refurbish used packs
    - licence current cell tech from Panasonic and do a joint venture with them for future development
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Zythryn
    Solar sucks on Mars because any panel there will produce 2.32 times less power then on Earth on average. Going farther, Europa, Pluto - solar is impossible to use at all. And we might want to have a habitable stations there.

    And there is nothing wrong with nuclear reactors...

    - - - Updated - - -

    I wish this was the case! Insourcing cells production would be an awesome news. But I frankly do not believe Tesla have free capital large enough to invest into such plant. And wont have it for quite some time. BTW, there are tons of companies you can license li-ion cell tech from, not necessarily Panasonic. Envia System, California Lithium Battery etc and so on..
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Bearman
    We are already doing that.
    ...
    OH! You mean on Mars!
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    aznt1217
    Solar insolation (the amount of solar radiation that reaches Mars) is about 42% of that on Earth, since Mars is about 52% farther from the Sun and insolation falls off as the square of distance. But the thin atmosphere would allow almost all of that energy to reach the surface as compared to Earth, where the atmosphere absorbs roughly a quarter of the solar radiation.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    vfx
    Actually not too sure how liquid he is because he didn't exercise his options. He pretty much poured all of his money into Tesla (which I believe is a little over 100 million), after watching the Bloomberg Risktakers Profile on Elon, it seemed like he poured every cent he had into the company. I believe his salary is only $33k at Tesla and he just bought the Bel Air Mansion so I can't imagine he has significant liquid funds (to change course of the company).

    I really don't buy this whole him putting his personal money into the company statement solely because the idiom is used all the time. It's more than likely a product related announcement or a partnership announcement.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think the plan goes like this: Terraform Mars to convert all the Carbon Dioxide into Oxygen for human life. Then Humans would heat the planet up (like we do on earth) which would in turn change the atmosphere on Mars and make it more inhabitable naturally.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Bearman
    Except Elon wants to terraform Mars...
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    jvonbokel
    Of course but that will take some time and then one will use what ever future technology we have that is suitable.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Bresson
    He invested so much in Tesla/SpaceX that he came close to bankruptcy, and Tesla doesn't pay him much directly, but we don't know what he's made from SpaceX. He probably owns a larger portion of SpaceX, and they've probably become quite profitable recently.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    sp4rk
    Elon Musk starts a Tesla rental car company and goes public with it to raise money.
    -Offices and rentalcars where the superchargers are.
    -As a customer you can switch cars instead of charging them. No waiting time.
    -No fuel-costs when you hire a model S.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    shady
    Why is he always introduced, then, as a billionaire. I always assumed stock in companies but not liquid capital.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Cheerose

    Yes, but unless you purchase the "charge" option, you have to return the car with a full charge :)
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Yuri_G
  • Mar 27, 2013
    jvonbokel
  • Mar 27, 2013
    NielsChr
    Sorry, poor word choice on my part. I don't think Elon himself was ever close to filing for bankruptcy, but he was very cash poor for a while, taking out personal loans from friends to cover his living expenses. All his capital was tied up in Tesla, SpaceX, etc*.

    Forbes estimates his net worth at $2.7B. They say he owns 29% of Tesla. Wikipedia says 32%, MSN Money says 23.8% (plus 28.3% of SolarCity). Regardless of which number is correct (if any), they'd all represent $1B+ in value given current market capitalization of 4.37B.

    *Incidentally this was also around the time he was negotiating the terms of his divorce from his first wife. I personally don't think this was deliberate, but some would argue that case.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Banahogg
    maybe his missing the last part....if one are picky about it - SC aren't exactly battery swapping, and it will not come.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    PopSmith
  • Mar 27, 2013
    cdabel
    That's correct. In fact, Autoweek had an article confirming the B-Class EV clear back in July of 2012. Here is the article.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    SteveG3
    I think it might indeed be related to the Phinergy article mentioned earlier in the thread. Phinergy 1000-Mile Aluminum-Air Battery: On The Road In 2017?

    Elon�s recent Tweets about Gen III being 3 to 4 years away, with "cool tech we can�t talk about yet" matches up with the article�s mention of "a contract with a global automaker to deliver production volumes of the device starting in 2017." Later in the article the company says it recently received funding for a pilot project from the Israeli gov�t, "among other sources".
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Yggdrasill
    cdabel, hadn't noticed the funding... "among other sources," but I've been thinking the same, especially 2017 matching up with Tesla, and Elon tweeting Sunday about new tech he can't talk about yet. I think it's an exciting prospect, though it takes time to see what can actually be commercialized.

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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    I would just like to mention that the greencar report article mentions figures that are incompatible. Aluminium contains around 8 kWh per kg, while they believe the car contains 50 plates with 7 kWh each. That means each plate would need to weigh at least 875 grams, and the battery would weigh 44 kg in aluminium alone. That is incompatible with the stated weight of 25 kg.

    I believe the battery contains 25 kg of aluminium, and each plate is 500 grams. The battery pack weight is unknown, but probably somewhere in the 50-75 kg range. This would mean a total capacity of 200 kWh, which in a small car like the one shown might work out to around 1000 miles range. In a Model S the battery would be more like 600 miles.

    It's also important to remember that we are not talking about free energy. The production of aluminium is only around 60% efficient, and then there are all the associated losses. I would expect a cost per kWh on an aluminium-air pack to be no less than $0.45/kWh. This is fine if you basically never use it, but if you never use it, why haul around 50 (?) kg of dead weight?

    I think Tesla is committed to the SuperCharger technology, so I would be *very* surprised if the announcement had anything to do with Phinergy.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    setherme
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    herbvdh
    The Mercedes partnership yes but this is a vehicle that is 171" long on a 106" wheelbase Canada specs. Could this be the new Tesla sedan gen III???
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    K Hall
    This car and others like BMW's option are the pioneers tobuild the category. GEN III will benefit from the ground work of these machineswith 115 mi range.
    Gen III�s 200 + mirange with be the upgrade ^.^
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Grendal
    I can't imagine the announcement will have anything to do with batteries except to say something like he already tweeted "200 miles for $30K." This is simply because you don't want to give away any possible breakthrough too early. Besides, it would be up to a battery partner, like Panasonic, to announce any breakthroughs with their technology. Elon buying a company, like the one mentioned, would happen quietly until the entire deal is completely finalized. There would have had to have been an entire process of them proving their technology to him. Then he makes an offer. If the technology is really amazing then there would be huge announcements and a bidding war to see who will pay the most for it. It just makes no sense. Sorry.
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    Nh1
    Just to add fuel to the Phinergy speculation, TM has about a dozen patents relating to metal-air batteries, the last one published January 17 (TESLA MOTORS, INC. - Patent applications). I'm sure it's something more modest though.

    On a related note, we could use a TM Patent Master Spy Thread to geek out on. :biggrin:
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  • Mar 27, 2013
    stopcrazypp
    I guess I have to throw some cold water on the Phinergy speculation. The Phinergy battery is non-rechargeable. You have to replace it after the aluminum is spent. And the process to make that aluminum is also highly inefficient. Basically it will involve some sort of battery swapping scheme (although the battery in this case is a lot lighter and holds more energy). I'm not sure Tesla really has much interest in battery swapping.

    The metal-air patents Tesla applied for talks about rechargeable metal-air batteries, most likely lithium-air (or maybe zinc-air).
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    asadanaga
    What about a Boeing announcement? Noticed that GS Yuasa is having similar issues with the cars they supply as did the Dreamliner.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    clea
    WAG: They have finished setting up parking sensor integration and he will pay to retrofit all current cars that have the tech package ...
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Zythryn
    Ooooooooo I like this one!!
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Majerus
  • Mar 28, 2013
    mitch672
    If you read the GreenCarReports article on Phinergy, they are also working on a rechargeable zinc-air battery as well, it probably isn't the Aluminum-air battery that tesla would be interested in, they are all about recharging...
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    mulder1231
    He could announce quicker expansion of the Supercharger network (using his own money) and a deal with Daimler that allows future B-Class owners to use it for free, for the lifetime of their cars. Would be a good move towards world dominance!
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Arnold Panz
    I love that there are over 200 posts trying to figure out the meaning behind one tweet!

    Having said that, usually folks on TMC are able to figure out pretty quickly what an announcement is about (such as MT COTY), or at least narrow down the viable options. The interesting thing here is that it doesn't seem like there's a really good guess, other than something to do with superchargers.

    I have no better guess than anyone else. I would make the following observations -- putting ones "money where his mouth is" is a figure of speech. This involves something that Elon has mentioned in the past, and probably on multiple occasions. Could it be the viability/practicality of the SC network, or the financial security of TM? The problem with the former is I'm not sure where his personal investment, or "money" (and here I don't think he means cash, for those who were speculating how liquid Elon is) would come into play with that. This is something that TM should be doing as a business because the CEO has already said so. Accelerating the pace or scope of the SC network doesn't seem worthy of that kind of tweet -- he already has put his money where is mouth is on this topic when he made the SC announcement a few months ago. The problem with the latter is that I haven't heard Elon saying too much about Tesla's financial security, other than talking about how hairy things were in 2009 before they got the gov't loan approved and the investments from Toyota and Daimler. It's not like TM is wheezing along desperate for free cash flow, so what would be the point of a personal stock purchase by him or a personal repayment of the gov't loan?

    The implication of putting his "money" on the line is taking some sort of personal (financial) risk or stake in something related to TM. This is unusual because as a public company with a fairly healthy share price and access to other funds means that there's not much TM isn't able to do from an investment perspective as a business that would necessitate Elon personally putting his money where his mouth is. This is why the SC network doesn't seem the right fit.

    Anyway, it's easy for me to shoot down all of the speculation so far as not fitting the bill, but that doesn't leave me any closer to figuring out what the announcement is going to be next week. My focus is on looking for something that Elon has been fairly vocal about, because the implication of his tweet is he's going to more than just talk about something he's mentioned before related to TM, and put some personal financial stake behind his idea or theory.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Rodolfo Paiz
    I don't follow your reasoning. How is a deal that provides a huge benefit to Mercedes owners a good thing for Tesla, which would like nothing better than for people to buy Tesla cars instead? Yes, I know Mercedes uses Tesla drivetrain technology... but Tesla still makes far more money from selling cars at retail prices than from selling drivetrains at wholesale. And such a deal would enrage many Tesla owners. Doesn't sound to me like something that would get Elon very excited.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    ElSupreme
    Maybe another Model S style bet with someone about when/how much/what Gen III will be?
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    PopSmith
    I agree with this.

    Just to try and clear things up, the B-Class EV doesn't appear to have access to Supercharging. Daimler quotes the charge times as 30MPH (60 miles of charge in 2 hours @ 40 A/240 V), if Tesla gave the car access to the Supercharger Diamler would have probably said so in the Press Release. In addition, Supercharging is a big "golden goose" for Tesla; the extremely fast charging rates (which no other company can currently match) helps further separate Tesla's vehicles from other EVs.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    nleggatt
    maybe it has something to do with the warranty and service stuff. Maybe he will pay the extended warranty for all ModelS owners or something. He's so confident in the product and that it wont need repairs that he's going to put his money for it.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Yggdrasill
    Something like this would be pretty cool.

    Maybe he would set a firm limit of minimum 70% capacity at the end of the warranty period, and extend the warranty by some amount - that would be a nice display of confidence in the product. (I doubt this is the announcement, though.)
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    shady
    Maybe he's going to buy a(nother) Tesla
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    SebastianR
    I like the way you think and believe there that's where it's at. I could see this go into two directions:

    1) Announcement of a disruptive technology within the current plans e.g. a "Super Super Charger" to cut down charging times even more, including a special investment programme to have all the US covered with these chargers in 200 mile intervals (my best guess for today), or something like "doubling the production rate to 800 cars" or similar...

    2) Announcement of something disruptive outside the current plan e.g. Blue Star a year earlier, electric planes ("all transportation except Space travel), so really awesome battery tech for Blue Star or so...

    Personally, I think that we will see something that fits well within the existing plans, since Tesla has been pretty good in terms of focusing on the next step and proper execution (which I like).

    So what else is "within the plan" and yet "disruptive"?
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    kinddog

    winner_winner_chicken_dinner_large.jpg
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Kipernicus
    A Toyota Rav4EV with the Tesla powertrain. As a beater so he and Talulah can evade paparazzi.
    But that doesn't really meet the "in v major way" criteria, unless he bought a hundred of them.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    clea
    He could buy all the paparazzi Rav4EVs so he could outrun them in his Model S (not only on speed but range).
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    100thMonkey
    ... that the Tesla X production has been pushed back to make way for production of the Tesla S Sportwagen, available this fall!
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    mulder1231
    I am talking about expanding Superchargers as a new line of business for Tesla through deals with other EV manufacturers, in particular those who use Tesla's battery tech. If Tesla expands Supercharger access beyond their own cars they could have a shot at becoming the dominant charging station operator in the EV industry, like ExxonMobil or Chevron dominate gas stations for fueling ICE cars today.

    Also, Elon likes to think bigger than Tesla, he wants to get to all electric automotive transportation as quickly as possible. For the greater good of the planet!
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    setherme
    I've seen one post eluding to battery swapping, but no discussion. Why isn't this a strong possibility?

    This excerpt from the recent 10K seems promising for the announcement:

    "our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such
    swapping, which do not currently exist but which we may introduce sometime in 2013"
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Rodolfo Paiz
    That only works if everybody else pays for using the Superchargers. They're free to Model S owners, so that's not a very promising "business". And I don't think the Superchargers are currently fitted with billing and payment infrastructure (though I could be wrong), so in either case I would guess this is possibility is highly unlikely.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    mulder1231
    It would be a license agreement with the car manufacturer perhaps with a Tesla provided sensor to be built into each car that enables charging.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    rongon
    So what else is "within the plan" and yet "disruptive"?

    How about an inventory system like all car manufacturers have to go along with the best sedan in the world?
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    tdiggity
    He's going to release the logs from the nyt article and the animation to go with it. Proving once and for all that he's right.

    But probably not.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    J in MN
    This stood out for me too.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    stopcrazypp
    Here's a wild guess that I believe no one has mentioned yet: wireless charging.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Citizen-T
    He did mention battery swapping during that investor presentation last year. We thought for a while that it was going to be coming with the Supercharger unveil, but that didn't materialize. Maybe there is something there. Still wonder where the "putting my money where my mouth is" plays in though.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    carrerascott
    I think I got it -- Model S buyers will be put into a drawing for a free seat on the trip to Mars! (But no return flight, sorry.)
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Norbert
    Did someone already mention it? The use of (possibly recycled) batteries at Superchargers to lessen the (occasional) draw on the grid. And/or the "step" advancement in Supercharger technology.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Twiddler
    Could he be buying out the company and going private? I mean, he is currently the majority shareholder, but it was my understanding that he is already all-in. Would definitely explain the comment, but wow, the insider trading accusations would fly (even more)
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    GSP
    Well, Elon has been talking about the Gen3 "BlueStar" car for a very long time. His "Master Plan" blog was one of the first ones posted at TeslaMotors.com, maybe the very first one authored by Elon. About a year ago, Tesla officials stated that the battery tech needed to make BlueStar possible was going to be on the market in time to pull up the Gen3 launch. However, the Gen3 launch is going to require a huge amount of capital. If Tesla makes its first real profit this quarter, and has loans to service, how are they going to get capital in time to launch Gen3 as soon as the batteries (cells) are ready? A big cash infusion from Elon is consistent with his tweet. He also has been bragging on the Gen3 in recent tweets.

    Maybe even bet big time and tool a European factory as well, to crank out lots of BlueStars to meet the incredible demand for a $30k 200-mile car with "really cool tech" and Tesla cache. Two plants is still only 2/3 of Goshn's bet on the leaf (a $30k, 75-mile car)

    GSP
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    sp4rk
    What does he believe in passionately that he has not put his money where his mouth is?
    Solar panels on all the Superchargers?
    At least we don't have to wait nearly as long for this as Teslive?
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    hasselboxster
    Sometime last fall Elon mentioned several derivatives of the Model S in 2013. I don't know if Tuesday will reveal more, but definitely has my full attention.

    Love the ideas that suggest its some type of support/benefit towards existing owners.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    Arnold Panz
    Something related to Gen III is a good guess. He had some recent tweets (replies to questions, actually) about it being 3-4 years before they'll have Gen III available, so a financial investment in getting Gen III to market faster or something similar would meet the criteria of putting his money where his mouth is in a very major way. Tuesday will be interesting!
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    gg_got_a_tesla
    I don't think Elon can make Gen III happen by simply throwing (his) money at the problem. He needs all of the talent at Tesla to work on it and we all know how limited their bandwidth is right now with the Model S and then the X. And, unlike software engineers who are a dime a dozen around here :), there are surely not enough battery systems specialists that he can lure even with a lot of green.

    My hunch is still a big advertising splash for Tesla - either directly via media outlets or indirectly through a fleet investment or some such - with his money.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    neroden
    Isn't Elon Musk still ridiculously leveraged? I don't think he can mean that he's putting his *own* money in -- it's all tied up in Solar City, SpaceX, and Tesla already!

    Anyway, I think he probably means Tesla's corporate money.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    mitch672
    Or it could mean he has private investors, or existing private investors (read: Toyota and Mercedes), that have agreed to put up a huge amount of money (hint: 1 Billion or more), so Tesla can develop the Gen3 platform sooner, they will have a technology transfer agreement, and the investors will get to use the platform along with Tesla. He'd be in favor if this because these major auto mfrs can really crank out cars in a big way, there will be many more all electric cars much sooner if this where to happen. This is all in line with Elon's stated goals of converting cars to all electric. In addition, they will be licensing the SuperCharger technology (for a small fee per car built) to these auto giants, which will support a massive SC network (eventually). It's also how a tesla will make money long term, as the majors will be able to build millions of EVs, while Tesla will be able to focus on new and better designs, and not so much about manufacturing the cars, the major players will generate the volume, Tesla will make a licensing fee and run the SC network, everyone wins, Teslas drive train and battery technology will be in every platform, eventually.

    Full disclosure: Randy Carlson has already suggested most of this:
    SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha
    �
  • Mar 28, 2013
    PureAmps
    Yep, which is why an option exercise makes the most sense if he is putting money into the company. He can exercise as part of a cashless transaction, where he sells enough shares to cover both the exercise price and the taxes, so it costs him nothing out of pocket, and nets the company cash with plenty of shares left over for himself. Or he could secure some kind of private financing to purchase the shares and pay for the taxes. His strike price is low at $6 and change, so the odds of a margin call are quite low assuming Tesla continues to execute.
    �
  • Mar 28, 2013
    vfx
    The bluegen3 is battery progress limited
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    mitch672
    Yes, that's covered with the possible deal with the Israeli company developing the Aluminum-air and Zinc-air battery, perhaps Elon has found a promising technology that can speed things up, you never know what Iron Man will come up with :)
    I wouldn't underestimate what could be done with the correct mixture of science & finance.
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  • Mar 28, 2013
    vfx
    A new battery tech has not been their MO. Tesla has always used commodity cells.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    joefee

    I'm thinking the same on money inflows, SuperCharger/Manufacturing expansion�except Tesla will become/remain a major car manufacturer with: MS, MX, Gen 3, Super Car, mini-S, mini-X, E-truck (Elon said the next letter should be E �. S "E" X) :love:
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    mitch672
    I think the point of partnering and licensing their technology is so they don't need another major cash infusion to keep going, they'll let the big boys do the manufacturing in large volume, their technology will have been proven, their is no need for them to compete with the auto industry, they'll license the technology to them instead. Sure, they'll always make some high end cars, but their talents are better spent on design and R & D.. They'll manufacture enough for proof of concept, as they have been doing, this will allow for a much quicker conversion of the fleet to electrification, one of Elon's stated goals... They are already so far ahead, other manufacturers will just follow along, as has been happening already. (RAV 4EV compliance car, and new Mercedes ED)
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    GSP
    True. Tesla will need time, talent, and a few hundred million to bring the Gen3 to market, just like the Model S. They also need the right battery cell technology at the right price, reliably delivered in high volume. Model S and X will keep the talent busy as you point out, but Elon is good at getting more talented people when needed.

    In addition to development expense, tooling a high volume assembly line (or two) and supplier tooling to support it will be *very*expensive. Probably $500M or more per line capable of 200k units/year.

    So I think a big capital infusion into Gen3 would be a good bet for Tuesday's announcement.

    GSP
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    yobigd20
    Maybe now that the Chinese have backed out of buying Fisker, Tesla is going to pair back up with Henry Fisker, acquire Fisker Automotive, and finish developing the Karma the right way with a Tesla powertrain...or perhaps acquire it alone without Henry Fisker involved...lol.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    sp4rk
    What value would adding Fisker to the Tesla umbrella bring shareholders? Or was this a joke?
    Where did I miss the Chinese no longer being interested in Fisker?
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    Larry Chanin
    At Earnings calls Elon has stated how, in theory, he is a supporter of leasing, but due to the order backlog Tesla didn't need to implement one yet. "Putting money where his mouth is", fits in with these prior public statements in which he has decided to invest part of his personal wealth in a new leasing program. Although there still is a backlog Tesla can't wait until it is gone to start leasing. They need to get out front and ensure there are programs aimed at generating demand.

    From a selfish personal perspective I would like to think that Elon's public statements about the Supercharger network might fit as well, but I think that leasing is more likely.

    Larry
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    ElSupreme
    I think this may have real merit behind it. Tesla/Elon could offer a Lease program. The 'my money where my mouth is' comment could reference some very high residual values. And considering the battery pack is a huge cost in the car, and it will have large value after 3 years 36,000 miles they could comfortably offer very high residual values.
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  • Mar 29, 2013
    Arnold Panz
    I agree that this plausibly fits within the parameters of Elon's tweet, although I'd still say that it's Tesla's money that Elon is putting at risk, not his own, but as CEO and the biggest shareholder, it's perhaps understandable that he considers Tesla's money to be his own!
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    avatar
    The more I think about it, the more I believe this is going to be Elon buying a large number of shares in TSLA. According to TSLA's 10Q Filings he has a tranche of 560K shares vesting. I'm not sure exactly when (would be great if one of you fine gents knew what date his call options vest). The price he gets to exercise the calls is approximately $30. That means he putting about $16.8 million of his own money into the company plus probably has external investors lined up to buy more shares. Any thoughts?
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    Bardlebee

    How much would leasing be on a car so expensive? I ask out of curiosity because while I would love a Tesla, I would love a way were I can do a lease-to-own type process so I can get it sooner :)

    I don't know if he would need an announcement for it though. Why not just DO IT? This sounds like a more publicized thing then just buying more stock.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    avatar

    What if he has lined up Warren Buffet as an investor? That is certainly worth an announcement.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2013
    aznt1217
    Securing investors can be likely. It's been quoted that shorts are in for a tsunami of hurt many times. Warren Buffet also does own an electric car company. Interesting indeed. He also has a knack for buying companies that are on the brink of explosive growth after starting up or recovering from a beat down.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2013
    BenTesla
    I think what ever it is has to be worth of a announcement/event. If they going to make a lease program, Elon would have tweeted it instead of the cryptic tweet. Same reasoning against him buying more stock or securing investors. Based on what I've learned about Tesla through the years it has to be something that needs to be seen to be understood not something that would be just as well received through a blog post. Anyway I have 3 guesses, would love to know what you guys think: (they're in order of how likely I think it is)

    1. Upgraded Supercharger technology and an accelerated roll out

    2. A bunch of new apps for the infotainment center (By far the coolest of the possibility)

    3. They're announcing the "opportunity console" the center console gap filler thing they talked about on launch (Is there any news on this? seriously quiet on this frount or did I miss the launch?

    My one question is am I right in assuming it'll be an event or is it just going to be a blog post? If it's a blog post ignore all of this :smile:
    �
  • Mar 30, 2013
    BryanW
    I like 1 and 2.
    If 3, then they leaked it early... Drop-In Center Console now in the Tesla Model S online store

    :)
    �
  • Mar 30, 2013
    AMPd
    Tuesday cannot get here fast enough
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    jeff_adams
    Buying Fisker would be an interesting move. If Tesla can take a Lotus body and build the Roadster, surely they could do the Karma and Atlantic with the skateboard drivetrain. If they meet the government's requirements, they could secure the rest of Fisker's DOE loan. Tesla has shown they know how to leverage those kinds of loans....
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    hcsharp
    Except that Fisker has no technology that Tesla could use. It's too late to get the DOE loan reinstated. Fisker has no value except possibly to somebody who has no EV technology yet. It would only make sense for a company with cash (certainly not Tesla) looking to acquire EV technology for cheaper than they can develop it themselves.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    GSP
    Interesting. Elon could start another company to finance Tesla automobiles. This is how the high volume automakers do it (prior to bankruptcy anyway).

    This is one of the more likely guesses. It fits Elon's MO of getting the best tools available for the job, just as good or better than those used by the biggest competitors. They used first rate CAD software from very early on, bought a 500,000 unit/year factory, bought lots of robots, a huge stamping line, etc.

    A separate finance company is another first class "tool" to sell cars.

    GSP
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    WarpedOne
    Renault ZOE infested me with an idea: What if Elon will offer a battery lease option?
    I'm sure they will still sell the car with battery to whomever who will want to buy it, but slashing $20k from Model S Performance sticker price would be huge.
    Model S for $40k anyone?
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    JRP3
    Neither of these sounds like big news or would require putting his money where his mouth is in a very big way.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    JohnQ
    It's hard to stay out of these things ...

    One of the weaknesses of any electric car is the need to charge at one's destination when traveling. Not supercharger level charging, a simple 40A charge to get the battery topped up overnight. I constantly read about people looking for lodging with charging infrastructure. So, an opportunity I see is the creation or purchase of a charging network that would enter into significant partnerships with hotel chains. A network that would underwrite the cost of the charging infrastructure in return for the revenue. Imagine Hiltons (or Hyatts, or Marriotts) across the country with readily available 40A (or 80A) stations bringing in visitors. Use SAE standard connectors and all of a sudden this is supporting the entire EV population, not just Teslas.

    To me, that would be Elon putting him money where his mouth is regarding getting EVs on the road.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    jkirkebo
    Maybe he'll give away 5,000 HPWCs, one or more to any business willing to let Tesla owners charge for free? Including subsidized installation by Solar City?

    The HPWC will ensure only Tesla owners can use it, and it can be used on circuits as low as 40A. Cost would be a few million dollars, no more than 10 at most. I doubt the HPWC costs more than $700 to make.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    Nuvolari
    I suggest it's a superdeal with mc donalds installing Hpwc at all mc donalds in us. Cost split between tesla and mc donalds
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    sp4rk
    If it's HPWC related, first he's got to fix the existing ones!
    My hope is that it's a deal with a big hotel chain.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    Kaivball
    People still eat at McDonalds?

    Haven't been there in years.

    Hooking up with a major hotel chain like Marriott or Hyatt would be great.
    Fast food? Not so much IMNSHO.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    ckessel
    I've had a hard time figuring what Elon can "put his money where his mouth is" that's an exciting thing for Tesla.

    Buying a bunch of stock doesn't do much for Tesla.
    Giving away things (HPWC, 3G, whatever) to current customers doesn't do much either other than establish good will since they're already customers.
    HPWC at hotels is nice, but I don't see it helping Tesla much either. The problem on road trips is super charging. HPWC doesn't help that much and only helps people with twin chargers.

    It's got to be something that Elon is putting money on that benefits Tesla. The idea of funding a bunch of super chargers would fit, but given they've been talking about rollouts on that already it doesn't feel like a big announcement. Elon is worth a ton of money, but most of it is tied up in TSLA/SpaceX/SolarCity. The guy is all about investments in his companies and basically doesn't take a salary (a financials release at one point noted he is paid the minimum California salary and refuses to cash the check).

    In short, I have no idea. :)
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    AnOutsider
    I'm pretty sure they're still the largest fast food chain in the nation.

    Guess they got over your break up ;)
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    Kaivball
    :)

    :)
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    Nuvolari
    Thinking of where "his mouth is",
    @mc donalds?
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    JohnQ
    Superchargers help me reach my destination, but I get there with a depleted battery. A 40A charger in a hotel parking lot lets me have fun at my destination and get back to the nearest SC for my trip home. This increases the utility of a Tesla vehicle and, with 40A of current, is sufficient for overnight.

    If I'm a major hotel chain and there's no real cost to me to install, and it gives me an edge over my competitors, and it gives me "green cred," then it's really a no-brainer.

    Not saying that's what the announcement is, but I thinks it's a reasonable speculation.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    AnOutsider
    I agree here. I've started asking hotels if they have charging when I travel so I can take the S. If, say, Marriot announced their whole chain would have HPWCs, guess which hotel first on my list in any given city?
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    ckessel
    True, though I thought HWPC specifically meant 70A and required the twin chargers.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2013
    WarpedOne
    It is reasonable though I am not sure it applies to "where my mouth is" part of the tweet.

    What about "every gas station will get a supercharger"? :p
    �
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