May 9, 2013
Eberhard Parking sensors are offered in Europe
�
May 9, 2013
jomo25 I'm picturing end of Back To The Future. Attaching a lightning rod to the charging port to harness lightning into the battery. Lightning does happen worldwide and while you might need to wait for it to strike, the act itself takes less time than filling a gas tank :biggrin:
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He didn't say fully recharged. So, perhaps its a 2/3 capacity recharge in that amount of time.�
May 9, 2013
Banahogg If we assume a non full recharge of 70 kWh at 400 V in 5 minutes, that's about 2100 A according to google calculator.
From looking at a couple of wiring websites, the biggest wire I see is 600 MCM at 1" in diameter which says it's recommended for only 420 A. Maybe FlasherZ can find a big enough wire to carry 2.1 kA somewhere
Swap seems more likely.�
May 9, 2013
JRP3 You might need to use "Musk Math", meaning a gas station visit takes 10-15 minutes :wink:�
May 9, 2013
ckessel I actually timed a few gas station stops and they were in the 10-15 minute range. I counted from the point I diverged off my normal path to/from work to go to the gas station. It was fairly high variance. If I got right in, 5 minutes. If I had to wait for a pump, it was about 15 minutes.�
May 9, 2013
aaron0k I think they're working to add battery swapping abilities to the SC stations. You could "rent" an extended pack, travel from Barstow to Vegas; then you would pick up your original (and charged) pack on the return. They may also consider 'pack leases'. There is a planned lifecycle to all of this... where the packs end up re-purposed @ SolarCity.
For me, the 'supercharging' concept never seemed scalable.�
May 9, 2013
JRP3 Swapping is a huge investment and part of the reason I knew Better Place was going to fail. I hope that's not what Elon is talking about.�
May 9, 2013
Lloyd Average gas station visit to fill a tank is 12 minutes.�
May 9, 2013
adiggs Here's a new way to think about battery swapping (though I don't know how I think about it yet) - if the warranty is unlimited and no-fault, then it doesn't really matter whether you ever get back "your" battery. Or at least, it does, but now we aren't a very long step away from it not mattering. It would still be a godawful pile of capital / cash to get batteries distributed, swapping stations built, and otherwise build the infrastructure to make the mechanics of battery swapping happen. They sure do get simpler if the packs, whether new or not-so-new, are the "same" (go swap your battery again if you get a 'dud' and let Tesla know at the same time).�
May 9, 2013
aaron0k I would have also bet on BC failing; due to bad design and management, not because of the concept.
It does require infrastructure... however if you look at how Tesla designed the car, the batteries; it's not as much as you would think. Unlike BC... Elon has the balls/brains (and timing) to carry it out.
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It would seem all the previous announcements would have been supportive of this final announcement; including canceling the 40k "pack".�
May 9, 2013
gg_got_a_tesla Cold Fusion reactor as a center console insert right under your nose :tongue:�
May 9, 2013
brianstorms Flux capacitor, of course.�
May 9, 2013
SteveG3 I think a range extender via a metal air battery is more likely than battery swap. Someone a few weeks back posted 3 patents Tesla has on this. Something like Phinergy released video on is impractical as primary battery, but as a back up 2,000 miles to vaporize ghosts of range anxiety, why not?
I also seem to remember in the back of the frunk there's a sunken area about the size of a small suitcase for no apparent reason.
I realize this is speculative, but I agree with other posters... having looked at battery swapping few instances where it's practical. What else is out there that it might be?�
May 9, 2013
100thMonkey battery swapping sounds plausible, considering the tweets...�
May 9, 2013
mitch672 Said this 3-4 time in other threads, higher power SuperCharging combinded with a metal-air battery in the frunk (right under your nose-cone), this will net a 1,300 mile range in 15 minutes. A typical ICE driver would need 2 or 3 fillups for 1,300 miles of range.
Replacement one-time use metal-air cartridges and water will be dispensed from vending machines located at SuperCharger locations.
Before you write me off as "nutty", note that Tesla has recently filed several patents about metal-air batteries combined with their existing pack technology. This would Make a nice demo as well.�
May 9, 2013
aaron0k Everything else is 3-5 years away. They're not going to announce something that far out.
Tesla has mastered robotics in their factories; this is not "rocket science" to them. Battery swaps are very practical and I hope it happens. It would be a game changer.�
May 9, 2013
mitch672 Won't be battery swap, guaranteed. I'll place money on it. Too many screws holding the pack to the chassis, too many hoses (cooling and battery). Not.going.to.happen.�
May 9, 2013
SteveG3 aaron, everyone else is 3-5 years behind with their EVs in general... isn't it possible Tesla has the same lead with commercializing metal air technology? Couldn't they be ready to announce and have operational within 6 months to a year?�
May 9, 2013
zax123 And back in the "WhiteStar" days, Tesla was talking about battery swapping a lot -- that the battery pack would be a *user* swappable tray of batteries that slides out and is easily switched out for a fully charged pack. Maybe they've done a relatively straightforward prototype retrofit to an existing Model S to make it that much easier to do.
He did say it was somewhat of a demonstration, so it's probably a proof of concept more than a realistic option in the next few months.�
May 9, 2013
SteveG3 Mitch I feel your pain... sometimes on these forums posts with useful information get burried in all the excitement. And thanks if it was you who posted the patents on metal air hybrid Tesla filed.�
May 9, 2013
deonb
Couple of reasons why not:
a) "throughout the country"? Doesn't jive. A battery swap rollout would be much more expensive and much slower than a supercharger rollout, and we know how long that is taking.
Certainly not going to happen "throughout the country" within any reasonable amount of time. Also, there was actually a follow-up tweet that said "world-wide", but it's been deleted. But obviously someone thought it would be doable worldwide (but probably had to go through regulations first).
b) Battery exchange has nothing to do with "right under your nose". Frunk does.�
May 9, 2013
SteveG3 any of you owners have any input about that recessed area in the back of the front... to me perhaps big enough to fit the metal air component in the Phinergy video (or fit a more refined version for commercialization).
Phinergy 1000-Mile Aluminum-Air Battery: On The Road In 2017?�
May 9, 2013
60TTuC How abouth this ?
You can charge wirelessly while driving if you have infrastructure in place.�
May 9, 2013
aaron0k If it's an metal-air battery in the frunk; I'll be very happy to be wrong. That is a better solution.
However, even Phinergy doesn't think it will be production ready until 2017. Why would they talking up an announcement of this nature if they can't deliver for 4 years? Nevermind... I forget how long we've waited for the Model S.�
May 9, 2013
SteveG3 aaron when will any of the major automakers decide it's time to release a 200 mile battery car? Any of the several that now have 80 mile battery cars could have done it, they could be production ready, but they're looking at it. Another Phinergy article mentioned they have a deal with Nissan. Apparently Nissan thinks the best foot forward with an EV in 2013 is the 80 mile Leaf. Perhaps around 2017 they'll feel right about taking the plunge and releasing a 200 mile EV.
As another example look at what Musk has done with rockets that Boeing hasn't... it's just part of Elon's unique risk taker/genuine scientific chops combination.�
May 9, 2013
gregincal Um, the battery is in fact right under your nose. Literally.�
May 9, 2013
Volker.Berlin Love this!�
May 9, 2013
TEG Would be awesome if it ends up being true.�
May 9, 2013
jeff_adams It would be even cooler if it turns out Elon has actually managed to get a workable super capacitor. Pick one up before your trip, drive until your battery gets low and then pull over and plug the capacitor into a port in the frunk (under your nose). Drive away and watch as your battery actually charges up as you are driving. Super cool and the envy of every car manufactor. Way faster then "gassing up". Game changer...�
May 9, 2013
aaron0k Metal-air is a fairly new technology and untested; a replaceable battery with that much energy density would have to go through considerable major trials and safety testing. Tesla can be a nimble company, however to see them have it in production in a year would be quite a feat.
Tesla's core technology isn't that much ahead of other EV's (I consider the engineering in the Volt to be more adavanced than the MS). Tesla's superiority is in design and execution.�
May 9, 2013
mitch672 Metal-air batteries have been around for a while, here is a paper from October 2008 (some of the references are from the mid 90's):
http://www.e-kemsciences.com/Test/PDF/Brief_HistoryLithium_Air_Batteries.pdf
Remember, Elon likes to eliminate "barriers to entry", and have the best possible car (notice I didn't say "EV").
Name me a car that as a 1,300 mile range? No, you can't. Does.not.exist.yet. Best possible c a r, coming right up
�
May 9, 2013
aaron0k Metal-air batteries cost money to produce; in both manufacturing energy and consumables. We have no idea yet. Considering it took Li-Ion >decade to achieve an economy of scale to be competitive (even w/subsidies).�
May 9, 2013
SteveG3 aaron there's really no way to know on this one. fortunately, announcement is only a few weeks away. If Elon delivers what today's tweet suggests, whatever the technology to make it possible turns out to be I imagine we'll all be pretty pleased.�
May 9, 2013
mitch672 Correct, and yet we have no idea what Tesla has been cooking up and testing with Panasonic (for example). We do know Tesla has filed a number of metal-air battery patents, recently.
Elon never fails to disappoint, I doubt he will with this 5th announcement either.�
May 9, 2013
raymond A metal-air battery doesn't warrant a demonstration.
Elon: Look, here is an empty S, and look now it's super full again!
Crowd: (walks away disappointed)�
May 9, 2013
mitch672 It's likely to be a non-rechargeable metal-air battery (at least, initially). You will have to pull the spent cartridge, replace it and add water. Plus when arriving to the SuperCharger site, they will be sure to show the range at 50 miles or something low, when leaving 15 minutes later it has a full rechargeable pack, and a new 1,000 mile cartridge & water fillup, it will then have a 1,300 mile range - not only the best EV range on a car, the best range of any car on the road without stopping. That's quite a demo.�
May 9, 2013
deonb It makes a great demo:
Open frunk. Take out old battery / plates. Put in new battery / plates. (Maybe fill up with water). Close Frunk. Show 300 miles or more gained.
In the backdrop, a video of a guy filling up gas at a gas station now at a neat 3 gallons filled during the same time. (Or 1 gallon if he went to an ARCO...)
You will double sales overnight with such a demo.�
May 9, 2013
Johan I get tears in my eyes reading this. If it's even 10% this good I will jump with joy.�
May 9, 2013
Doug_G Man, you guys have all hyped this up to unbelievable levels such that any real announcement will seem like a disappointment.
It is sure to be some cool feature or other, but nothing on the order battery swapping or exotic new batteries!�
May 9, 2013
andrewket The change in battery warranty terms could be linked with battery swap. How do I know the battery I'm receiving is as good as the one I give up? If the warranty covers everything then I don't care. Effectively, I own the right to a battery, not a specific one.�
May 9, 2013
aaron0k Elon: It's a very exciting and dramatic -- really dramatic -- increase in the number of Superchargers and in what Superchargers can do. I think people will be really psyched.
Don't blame us for the hype: "very exciting and dramatic -- really dramatic"�
May 9, 2013
raymond Wikipedia says practical density for Aluminum-air is 1300 Wh/kg so "recharging" 60 kWh means removing 45 kg (100 lbs) and installing 45 kg. Lifting more than 5 kg is impractical so that's removing and inserting = lifting 5 kg (11 lbs) 18 times.
Assuming 45 kg Aluminum, you also need 53 kg (53 ltr; 15 gallons) of water.
Multiply all by 1.4 for a 85 kWh charge.
So while you're all sweaty from removing and installing 45 kg metal just as you begin to pump water the ICE in the background drives off with a full gas tank.
Not a good demo.
(I'm no chemist - I think these numbers are correct, however)�
May 9, 2013
mitch672 It's really about the practicality of unbolting/uncabling/removing then reversing the procedure, not too realistic. Extremely capital and space intensive as well, that's why it's not likely to be a reality, even using an "Elon Musk reality distortion field"
Note: "reality distortion field" copyright the estate of Steve Jobs
Reality distortion field - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia�
May 9, 2013
raymond So you're thinking rear-view mirror vanity lights? In that case I hope Talulah is doing the demo, not Elon. :wink:�
May 9, 2013
mitch672 I thought they where already split up...
Talulah Riley - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I guess she's not going to Mars with him either: Talulah Riley: how to marry a billionaire - Life Style - London Evening Standard�
May 9, 2013
Doug_G Getting off topic... but they're back together. Talulah Riley back with her ex-husband after he gave her �2million divorce settlement | Mail Online�
May 9, 2013
deonb
Oh. You mean that is not the primary goal of Tesla Motors Club? Now you tell me!�
May 9, 2013
raymond Very much OT (sorry for that), but apparently they got back together again. At least they are often seen in close company. But I really don't want to be People Magazine. Yuck.�
May 9, 2013
deonb The Phinergy 1000 mile battery weighs 55 pounds:
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1083111_phinergy-1000-mile-aluminum-air-battery-on-the-road-in-2017
Make that a 300 mile battery instead (enough to get that last ZEV credit), and it weighs 16.5 pounds. Most people can lift that, but split in two for some people who can't.�
May 9, 2013
jomo25 Exactly. Would love to be wrong, but consumer-ready metal air batteries are a ways away. The safety/security aspect alone could take years.�
May 9, 2013
StapleGun What is the absolute limiting factor on how fast the current battery can be recharged? I ask because I've never seen anything about increasing the charging speed via beefing up the superchargers. For instance, if you could plug in two superchargers at once to the battery could it charge twice as fast? I assume there is some other limiting factor because this approach doesn't seem to ever be discussed, but I'm curious as to the reason.�
May 9, 2013
DriverOne With induction at stop lights, waiting for a red to turn wouldn't be such a dreary waste of time!
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The hype is getting a bit much. It could be just a Fremont factory smell air freshener.�
May 9, 2013
aronth5 I am still sticking to the idea of some voice activated enhancement. Way too much hype on this announcement.
I sense disappointment on its way.�
May 9, 2013
Larry Chanin Thanks for the response. I agree that these features are likely to be carried over into later models, but with all due respect you still haven't answered my question.
Is it your opinion that none of these features will ever be implemented for current Model S owners, either for free or at an additional fee?
Thanks.
Larry�
May 9, 2013
Curt Renz So far we have four clues from Elon regarding the �under your nose� mystery announcement.
From an April 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] video interview with Bloomberg:
Elon: �Then there�s a third announcement that I won�t quite talk about, but I think is pretty cool, except to say that if you�re driving a Model S, it�s right under your nose.�
And three tweets today within one twitter thread:
Elon: �There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank.�
bhuwan: �yeah, we're waiting for superchargers
Elon: �Don't forget the mystery announcement. Part 5 of the trilogy.�
Pratik Shah: �only in US or across the globe?� (tweeter in India)
Elon: �worldwide�
We need a solution to the mystery that takes into account not only �under your nose�, but also �throughout the country� and �worldwide�.�
May 9, 2013
hershey101 Elon: �There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank.�
So maybe the aggrigate re-charging of all Model S's across the country is faster, but for any particular Model S it could take a lot longer (30-45 min using the 120kW?).
And he could announce 120kW compatibility w/ existing cars, and a plan to build superchargers around the world, not just in USA.
I think thats in-line with all the tweets and not so far-fetched.�
May 9, 2013
Curt Renz Interesting, but the Supercharger announcement will be #4 next week, and the "under your nose" announcement will follow as #5.�
May 9, 2013
yobigd20 Seems like they already got that problem solved according to a patent they filed recently. http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20130015823.pdf
If you read through the whole patent, clearly it's focus is about a safety system for metal air batteries, but in many places it also talks about using this metal-air battery in conjunction with a lithium ion battery....(for example, section 0021)�
May 9, 2013
Jason S Battery swaps.
That is all.�
May 9, 2013
Banahogg Assuming it is battery swaps (which I'm pretty convinced of at this point), it seems like one of the bigger questions is how it interacts with the supercharger network.
From the 10K, one of the risks to acceptance they list is:
"our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities
to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we may introduce sometime in 2013;"
And from another section:
"In addition, we designed Model S to incorporate a modular battery pack in the floor of the vehicle, enabling it to be rapidly
swapped out at certain of our service centers and specialized commercial battery exchange facilities that we anticipate may be available in the
future. "
So, sounds like they're introducing the facilities, including some at existing service centers. The use of the word "commercial" makes me think that the swaps won't be free like the supercharges. Maybe they're setting up superchargers as the baseline for shorter weekend trips and swaps as the premium solution for really hauling cross-country?
I feel like I'm going a bit beyond what the evidence shows, but what's the point of a forum if not speculation?�
May 9, 2013
SteveG3 I understand the desire not to raise expectations to unrealistic levels. That said, if Elon's tweet is to be taken at face value, it does seem on the order of a range extender battery or battery swaps.
"There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank."
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Excellent point Raymond. Aluminum replacement via self-help vending machines doesn't seem feasible. I don't see this as ruling out the possibility of metal air battery range extender.
It could be an option they offer for $X to install a 1,000 mile extender into the car. 98% of the time it's just a backup, that if for some random reason in daily driving you are running out of range, you dip into your 1,000 mile extender. I'd imagine typically this aspect of use (tapping 10 miles in January, than maybe in May another 30 miles...) would take years before you'd finish of enough of the 1,000 mile cushion to need to drive to a service center and have the aluminum replaced.
The other 2% of time would be when you are going on a very long drive, for example 1,500 miles. The extender would give you much greater flexibility for your trip. If you think about an actual scenario I think it would be a great complement to the SCs. Picture you're driving along, and after 3 hours, you really don't want to pullover and Supercharge, but the next Supercharger is 150 miles away. Very well, keep driving another 2 hours on your metal air extender, using up 150 miles of it's 1,000 mile capacity. 5 hours into your trip, you likely want to stop for an hour... perfect time to Supercharge. Oh, a 5 cars waiting for 2 Superchargers? No problem, add water for extender, drive 2.5 hours to next Supercharger and charger main battery there...
Perhaps on such a 1,500 mile trip you might dip into your extender 500 miles, and same on the way back. At your convenience after your return home from your trip, you drive to a service center, and they replace this 150 pound battery for you, and you're probably set for at least a year (I think the overwhelming majority of people drive 1,500 miles once a year or less, if at all.
People would feel a huge backstop of battery power, and probably become aware over time they don't hardly ever need the extender. Rather than needing to be convinced range anxiety is overstated, people could learn this with the extender as a sort of set of training wheels (and ten years from now main battery will probably have range making an extender obsolete.)�
May 9, 2013
brianman We need PuyallupBill to chime in so we can see his avatar.
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We have a very interesting assortment of statistics in the TMC hive mind.�
May 9, 2013
Larry Chanin Ah, speculation.
Here's an old posting based on an article that reported a colaboration between Tesla, Solar City and Wal-Mart. It lead me to speculate that combined Supercharging and Battery swapping operations could be supported at Wal-Mart Supercenters with tire centers.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7892-Suggested-Tesla-Supercharger-locations-in-Florida?p=181059&viewfull=1#post181059
Larry�
May 9, 2013
MikeK Way back when they did the first Tesla factory event, they had one of the "skateboard" platforms on display, and I spoke with a Tesla engineer. I pointed to two connectors on the pack, and asked about them. I was told that they had worked very hard to make it so that the pack could be dropped and exchanged in a matter of a few minutes, so those two connections were the only ones to the pack, and could be mated/demated by dropping the pack. For those of you who have taken the factory tour, you may have seen the packs ready to go into the car, and seen these connectors.
At that event, I was told that there were no immediate plans for pack swapping, but that Elon had insisted on the capability in case they ever wanted to bring it to market.
So, that's my prediction.�
May 9, 2013
Johan Interesting thought. However I believe time decay of the Al-air battery would make this a no-go. Also probably weight - the car is bordering on too heavy already.�
May 9, 2013
Yggdrasill The numbers are not correct. 1300 Wh/kg includes all the bits you don't replace, and the water. The aluminium itself has around 8 kWh/kg, so by replacing 5 kg of aluminium and reflling the water, you get 40 new kWh.
However, I doubt we are talking about aluminium-air batteries for this announcement. Replacing the aluminium is no doubt a lot harder than refilling gasoline and will take more time.
Although, if we are talking about aluminium-air, maybe Tesla has designed a battery that you can rent, that is not designed to be maintained by the user. If you replace the standard li-ion cells with aluminium air, the ~340 kg Model S battery pack could suddenly have ~400 kWh. Then you'd have to replace the battery approximately every 1000 miles. If the battery swap station automatically replaces the aluminium and water, this could take less time than filling gas, due to fewer stops being required.
It's also possible (I'd say even probable) that we are talking about regular battery swapping without stuff like aluminium-air. This takes longer than filling gas, but Musk has been known to exaggerate.�
May 10, 2013
raymond 16.5 lbs and you still need to fill up on water. But I do understand how this is something for Tesla to keep its eyes on. Thanks deonb for the clarification.
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I think I like that, a 1000 mile cushion. That would surely solve range anxiety until a) Li-batteries offer a larger range and b) people learn that 300 miles really is quiet a lot anyhow.
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I just remembered that in the old days someone (JB? Elon?) wrote that the fastest way to recharge your Roadster was to drive down a steep mountain. This was all looong before the SC days but still...
Two rollers embedded in a parking space, rear wheels drive up onto the rollers, car goes into special regen/charging mode, rollers spin up, and car is being charged at up to 310 kW. Whoohoo!
It is be demo-able (if we forget about PEM overheating and such)�
May 10, 2013
Johan This was discussed quite a bit a while back in the "Hack charging" thread. One of my fellow Norwegians shared his real-life experience with this (from towing and with a Leaf, but still much the same).
Hack-charging on a generator - Page 5
Jerry33 and other chimed in and the conclusion was that the rollers would have to be really large diameter in order not to shred the tires. If this was ever to be considered, driving the car up on something that lifts it slightly from the ground and the some kind of device that attaches directly to the wheel or drive axis and spins it seems best IMO.�
May 10, 2013
SteveG3 Roller idea very interesting... never saw that coming.�
May 10, 2013
AnOutsider indeed, that would be quite interesting -- though probably dangerous, and not in line with the battery swap stuff in their filings. But who knows!�
May 10, 2013
JRP3 I think the roller idea is insane. Terrible efficiency being the first of many problems.�
May 10, 2013
orangesolar What would the 5th announcement about?
Elon put a teaser on Twitter about the faster recharge than a gasoline car.
What could it be?
Swapping the battery?
Swapping the car?
Free airplane tickets ?
.
.
.
Gesendet von meinem GT-I9505 mit Tapatalk 2�
May 10, 2013
Johan And a lot of wear on the drivetrain being a big concern.�
May 10, 2013
jomo25 What is Tesla's upcoming 'under your nose' announcement?
Elon tweet�
May 10, 2013
orangesolar It was the tweet about the super fast charging faster than a gasoline car.
Gesendet von meinem GT-I9505 mit Tapatalk 2�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I dunno about that. My reason for thinking Better Place was going to fail was the terrible cars they were offering along with how much they were shafting the consumer with their shady battery lease. If you looked at the car, and did the math it was just an incredibly bad deal all the way around.
In contrast, I did do some work on modeling a Model S battery swap program, modeling it on "In-Bay Automated Car Wash" systems like you see at a typical gas station. The capital costs weren't that bad, and you only need maybe 1,000 batteries to supply 100 stations. The biggest ongoing cost is you need a small fleet of trucks to constantly rebalance the battery inventory, and workers to do the balancing.
I even have toyed with patenting some of the mechano-logistical elements of the model I came up with. If Tesla is actively considering this I'd suggest they call me and see if any of my thoughts are of value to them.
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Yes, I pretty much agree, but Elon is making it hard not to dream with the tweets he is sending out.
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No, that was my assumption when I looked at this last year. Tesla will clearly charge for battery swap.�
May 10, 2013
DonPedro Why not recharge the batteries on site, and then feed into next car? In that case, there is perfect balance between batteries in and batteries out, and no rebalancing. Or am I missing something?�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Ahh yes, the WalMart thread. Credible stuff in there.
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Wow. Me either. That's like perpetual motion territory right there...
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You are missing something, but I am dead serious about having patentable ideas on the subject, so I am not going to discuss it any further. If Tesla announces a battery swap program I am going to be taking a close look at what they are doing.�
May 10, 2013
JRP3 As I said, swapping was only part of the BP fail. I'm not saying that Tesla can't pull it off, I just don't think it's a good idea for them at this point in time, if ever. Expensive swap stations to build, extra battery pack supplies to build and keep on hand, I don't see trucking them around as reasonable so they'd really need to keep enough on had at all stations at all times for the busiest holidays and weekends, which means a lot of expensive extra inventory sitting around doing nothing most of the time. If they don't have enough on hand for high demand times then the concept doesn't really work. Cars expecting a swap then clog up the superchargers and the whole thing is locked up and people are stuck.�
May 10, 2013
Banahogg I think that's the crux of it. I'm assuming that they've figured out some way to have them doing something when they're not in use (solar backup, grid leveling, whatever). They figured out how to have on-hand inventory and service loaners share capital costs, so I'm assuming they can figure it out with batteries.�
May 10, 2013
ElSupreme I still don't think battery swap will work, not with Superchargers competing.
First I paid ~$40k for my battery, I don't want a 'similar' battery I want MY battery back when I am done. So you would have to rent a battery, have them store (and not use) your battery while you are off, then allow you to swap along your route. And it would have to be faster than Supercharging, since this will obviously cost something.
The facility costs are going to be much greater than a supercharge location. You will have to have at least one person on staff (if not a one person there 24/7). Or two separate systems at each location in case of a failure you don't strand a bunch of people, in the case of mechanical failure.
Capital costs are also going to be so much greater than a supercharger station. Most likely Tesla would have to have about the same amount of power pulled to the location. They would have to pay for battery packs, and a physical building. Robots, and automated lift tables to perform the swaps. Spare bolts, and coolant in case of any problems, misalignments.
And all this to have your battery charge in 10-15 minutes, instead of 60-75? That savings on a road trip wouldn't be worth more than $50 or so to me. And all that extra cost for a measly $100 once a year on Thanksgiving weekend from each Model S owner. It's not going to happen. Tesla has a solution with supercharging, battery swap adds too much cost without enough incremental benefit.
And Tesla will most likely have to size such a system for a Thanksgiving weekend, keeping lots of spare batteries on shelves most of the year just idle. If I didn't have the biggest battery it might be appealing to rent a larger pack for a road trip, but still I don't see the business case.
If on a battery lease program, maybe it could work. I could see it working for fleets, where you only need 1 location, where you already have buildings and staff present anyway. I could also see it if the rental/swap battery adds significant range over the standard battery.�
May 10, 2013
rolosrevenge Free airplane tickets. :tongue: If you need to go more than 1000 miles, Tesla will just fly you there...�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I'm not going to say battery swap is necessarily the way to go. Tesla is in a better position to figure it out than I am. But when I run the numbers it doesn't look crazy bad, especially if you think of it as a sales tool, just like Tesla is doing with SuperChargers.
In terms of the rest of the issues you mention, I feel I have marketable ideas on exactly how to solve many of those problems which makes me biased. That said, I've had a healthy skepticism that Tesla would actually do this, mainly because there has been commentary that the batteries are not swappable in a commercially efficient fashion.
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Yes, this pretty much sums up the argument against. Personally I also think it adds relatively little economic value over the SuperChargers. But the key is reducing mental barriers to EV adoption. It might well succeed at that, and the process issues are "solvable" in the context of building a workable, scalable system at a cost that Tesla can afford.�
May 10, 2013
mitch672 They probably are using spare battery packs, just not where you think... How about they are putting them in the SuperCharger sites, for load leveling and rate arbitrage, to keep the demand charges down? At least that's what "Randy Carlson" came up with on his SA article "SuperCharging Tesla". Suppose they can now handle 2C, how about 3C? Makes battery swap totally obsolete.
SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha�
May 10, 2013
DonPedro I think you are being to fast to dismiss this. The exact same argument would have been made against the SC network. That in itself does not prove that the swapping is a good idea, of course. My point is that you would have to do the math to know. What Tesla does so well is they start with the question: "Would it make for a great customer experience?". I guess the answer is "hell, yes, we would really like to drive in, get our battery swapped in two minutes, and drive out".
I agree with you that the variability of demand is the biggest challenge to the economics of this, because with a steady stream of cars to be swapped and batteries to be charged you would get low capital costs per swap. For instance, make the following assumptions (my numbers are probably off, as I have no sources, but all I care anout is being in the right order of magnitude):
* 3 minute cycle time through the swapping station
* 1 hour charging time for each pack
* cost to produce battery pack: $30k
* cost to produce 1 supercharger: $100k
At any point in time you need an inventory of 21 batteries, with 20 of them charging and 1 being swapped in or out of a car. Add $0.5m for the swapping bay itself, and your capex is $0.5m + 21x$30k + 20x$100k = ~$3m. Depreciate that over 5 years, and you have a cost of $600k per year.
In a year, that swapping bay does 262,800 swaps, which means the cost per swap is less than $2. This means you need a capacity utilisation of 5% to keep the cost of the swap at less than $40.
This still doesn't prove anything other than that we are in the ballpark. I would guess that the pumps at a gas station have less utilisation than 5%, so we are not necessarily all the way there. But I think our experience with Elon Musk is that if he gets this far, then he will find a way to go all the way. (For instance, if we are assuming less than 100% utilization, suddenly it makes sense to have more batteries and less chargers, and the cost goes down again.)�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor ^^This, though I use some different assumptions depending on how I model it. It's not hard at all to come up with affordable options that Tesla would implement, and it would demolish some big talking points against the Model S.�
May 10, 2013
ElSupreme You would also need a place to store individual peoples batteries, and a 'stock' of batteries to lend out. You would need a 24/7 staff (at least one person there at any given time) which is going to run you ~$200k a year. I know people that take at least a minute to park, so 3 minutes seems hopeless to me. I would expect 10 minutes for a pull through system at best, filling a tank of gas takes longer than that. But even considering your 3 minute swap, and people getting 5 swaps a year, you would need 52,560 Model Ss to saturate a single station, given your 5% (which seems high for a 24/7 operation) you would need ~2,600 Model Ss to support a single location that is way more expensive than a supercharger to install.
You might have that sort of density in Cali, but not really anywhere else. And I would expect about 40% or more of battery swaps to happen on Thanksgiving weekend. I fully expect that more than half of my Supercharges will be during Thanksgiving.�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Just re-looked at your quickie model. You don't need 20 SuperChargers unless you really think that you need maximum throughput. That said, the model you posted allows a constant stream of cars to come through and take a fully charged battery.
That is a capability that is unlikely to be needed during the initial rollout. If you substitute HWPC levels of charging instead you get lower throughput (though still probably much more than required in early years) and much lower CapEx than you are estimating. Also reduces your demand charges from the electric company. My own models require much less CapEx.�
May 10, 2013
DonPedro You are still assuming that you will own "your" battery. This model assumes that you keep the battery you get -- until the next time you swap. That is the only way this makes sense. You want to hold on to "your" battery - fine, then don't use this extremely convenient charging method. But keep in mind that the batteries are guaranteed by Tesla, and will be taken out of the system if they are inadequate.�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Yes, the model he posted is overbuilt.
But I disagree with the notion that you need 24/7 onsite staff. It should be a mechanically simple, automated process or it shouldn't be done at all.
Other than that, I agree that you need to store batteries and return them to customers on the return trip. Not workable otherwise.�
May 10, 2013
DonPedro You are probably right. This was something I just threw together while I was typing - didn't give it much thought. Just wanted to shoot down the notion that this was inconceivable from a cap cost point of view. Tesla, having thought about this for some years, have surely been able to add a lot of smartness to the model, including some less obvious elements.�
May 10, 2013
Banahogg Under that model, they'd need to have stocks of both size batteries on hand, though I wouldn't complain about a free upgrade to the 85kWh the first time I used the swap station
I'd been assuming that a swap station would be all 85kWh batteries (or whatever the biggest at the time is), so especially for us 60kWh owners, one of the big benefits would be that you'd effectively be upgrading your car for the trip, which would be nice. As the battery capacities increase, even 85kWh owners could presumably do a temporary upgrade the same way.�
May 10, 2013
ElSupreme I think you would lose about 1/2 of Model S owners. I paid ~$40k for my battery. Tesla does guarantee my battery for 8 years, and unlimited miles against DEFECT, not degradation. I would not accept a used, similar quality battery in replacement for my $40,000 battery. I think a LOT of people would be in my camp.
And what about people with 60kWh packs. Do they have their own pool of packs in your plan?
EDIT: Beat to the punch!�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor From an economic standpoint I agree. But here in the U.S. I don't think anyone would be interested in that service. And it opens up a legal can of worms for existing owners. Tesla has guaranteed only the first 8 years. After that nobody is going to be happy if a second hand battery dies on them. They will want their original battery back in any program like this, but I don't see that as a particularly difficult problem to solve.
Edit: Beat to the punch X 2�
May 10, 2013
DonPedro I guess just from a user's point of view I'd like to avoid having to go back to the same place. Kind of sucks if you want to do a non-linear road trip. It would still be inferior to gas, where you can go everywhere.
This could be a way of IMPROVING your battery guarantee. Basically, all batteries that are not acceptable are taken out of the pool, so you know you will never get a degraded battery.
Yes, yes, I see the legal and contractual challenges. But those have never stopped this company. So you give them the battery and that gets you the participation in the program. After the 8th year you start paying a yearly fee. Or whatever.�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor They have detailed usage statistics on the battery. No reason they couldn't have a buyout program similar to the loaner program where you pay (or are refunded) the difference between the value of your original battery and the one you end up with. That would allow for the occasional non-linear trip for folks who are willing to permanently swap batteries.�
May 10, 2013
DonPedro I like.
Another hypothesis: EM tweets teasers of things that need to be fixed, and then monitors the forums as the users formulate possible solutions. Announce best one. ;-)�
May 10, 2013
mitch672 +1 that would of course be very wise, but not too likely, he's far too busy to monitor forums, maybe he has some intern assistances helping him monitor�
May 10, 2013
gregincal It's funny, I actually see it the other way around. It's great for you, awful for Tesla. Why wouldn't you want a different battery? Anytime you were seeing battery degradation, all you would have to do is stop by and get a new battery. Tesla would need to remove or refurbish any batteries that weren't up to snuff from the system.�
May 10, 2013
ckessel I doubt it's battery swap because that seems to run counter to the super charger strategy. Tesla typically focuses on one solution to a problem and improving it. Swap locations would be a completely different approach the same core problem of long distance trips. They made the battery swap capable, but I think the case for that wouldn't be personal usage, but rather things like fleet vehicles or taxis that run in nearly continuous operation.�
May 10, 2013
JerryNycom $40,000 for your battery? Confused as to why?�
May 10, 2013
herbvdh It just dawned on me what Tesla needs to do. They need to rent people a Model S to a non owner to see if we would like driving it for extended time. Could I go from a SUV (hybrid 26 MPG) to a sedan??? I have driven the S and rode in them twice. I one time went from a SUV to a car for several years but am back with a SUV. Maybe they can arrange that rental payments can be used to buy a car either the rental or order one in a certain timeframe.�
May 10, 2013
Banahogg The 10k stuff is pretty clear that battery swap is on their radar and it makes sense with Elon's tweets.
Your objection is the part that I'm having the most trouble resolving. Free vs premium is the best I could come up with.�
May 10, 2013
JRP3 It still seems like too much effort for a very low demand product. Trips longer than a single supercharger can handle are extremely rare other than a few holidays.�
May 10, 2013
DonPedro ...and yet it resolves the Last Issue, that One Thing that so many people give for upholding the dominance of ICE.�
May 10, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt and that would get the Model S up to a Consumer Reports score of 100. Also, could the $200 million CAPEX expenditures be related to all of this? I'm not quite a believer of the recent turn in this thread but I can't think of a better idea so, uh, I guess we will wait and see.�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Lol. I participate in the forums at nasaspaceflight.com and starting last year we had a thread debating whether SpaceX should develop a Methane fueled Staged Combustion engine. I wont go into detail, but the thread resulted in a general consensus that they could and should develop such an engine. Elon announced that SpaceX would develop Methane fueled SC engine called "Raptor" earlier this year.
Ever since then we decided that SpaceX ends up with such brilliant ideas by simply watching the forum and waiting until everyone decides what would be smart to try�
May 10, 2013
AudubonB Terribly blindered thinking, there. Your driving situation is not the same as John's or Bill's or Mary's....or mine.
To a great extent, every single time I get into a vehicle, I'm off to the store. The problem for me is that to get to the store - any store - it's either a 400- or 600-mile round trip. Over the highest mountain range in North America. And for 8 or so months out of each year, in temps well under freezing...under by 30 or 40 or 50 or 60 or 70 degrees.....�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor That's ok, I've been participating in the recent discussions, but fundamentally I don't have a clue whats going to happen. If Elon hadn't been tweeting the tweets he's tweeted I'd consider all of this fanciful.
If not for the fact that the SuperCharger announcement was separate from the "Under your nose" announcement, I'd guess it was all just about an increase in SuperCharger speed.
Only it seems as if Elon was talking about the "mystery" announcement when he talked about charging faster than you can fill a tank. Plus, I seriously doubt they can do full charges "faster" than a gas refill. 15 minutes maybe, but refilling a tank only takes a couple of minutes.
So I am pretty confused and grasping at straws at this point. Who knows what the details of the SuperCharger announcement will be.
"Under your nose" probably means that Tesla has developed a new Angry Birds app for the touchscreen.�
May 10, 2013
ohmslaw The announcement is just going to be that they are upgrading the superchargers to charge 1.5x faster. Combined with musk-math (it takes 15 minutes to fill your ICE tank because you drive around 5 minutes to find the best price and then you spend 5 minutes walking into the station to prepay for your tank with cash, and another 5 minutes to get change when you are done), you can recharge your tesla "faster" than filling up your ICE.
There will not be battery swaps.�
May 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Don't forget the adding the amortized time cost savings of not having to perform yearly Smog Checks!�
May 10, 2013
ckessel Not blindered at all. He said trips needing more than one SC are extremely rare. They are, that's a perfectly statistically valid statement. The fact that you're someone that make such trips in no way invalidates the statistic.
Drives me bonkers when folks make perfectly valid statements about an overall statistic and someone inevitably goes "Uh, uh, can't be, I know one guy that's different." Well, of course there are exceptions, that has no relevance to the validity of the original statement.�
May 10, 2013
JRP3 Not the Last Issue, there is still price. Plus, unless swapping is nationally available then ICE's still dominate in range.
Hardly, I'm using averages, not my own situation. Numbers do not lie, trips beyond the range of a single supercharger stop are so rare they are probably less than 1% of all passenger car travel.�
May 10, 2013
ohmslaw And three minutes to clean that gasoline smell off your hand.�
May 10, 2013
SteveG3 wow, I was very skeptical about battery swaps, but it's starting to seem quite possible given everyone chipping away at it here as well as Capitalist Oppressor's remarks.
I could see a system within economic range (though some remaining logistical hurdles).
I think it would brilliantly complement the Supercharger Stations. It would satisfy those out there who think they'll never be okay wainting 40 minutes to charge. Perhaps more importantly, during holidays when the SuperChargers would otherwise run into log jams, customers would have another option, swap out their battery for hold until they return. Just like rental cars, Tesla could require a reservation at these times to help manage the system.
Why not just more Super Chargers to help at the high traffic times instead of complicating the system with battery swapping? Because unlike capex for Supercharger capacity well beyond everyday use, the battery inventory necessary for high volume time would NOT be extra expense.
Here's how all those batteries for the rare high volume times will not require underutilized capex: charge per mile of use on the rented battery. If Tesla can make an 85kWh battery for $25,000, and it has 125,000 useful miles to it, that comes to $.20/mile, or 20 mpg if gas is selling for $4/gallon.
So if Tesla charges customers $.20/mile used on the "rental batteries", once the battery has been used up, it's also been paid for.
How does this look to a Tesla customer?
20 mpg isn't far off from other cars in Tesla's class.
but here's the big kicker- the $.20/mile you pay on your "rental" battery would be entirely offset by the $.20/mile you would have depreciated on your own battery had you logged those miles on it instead of the rental.
(While this may not be 100% of how depreciation is calculated, for the battery usage is the basic driver in the calculation.)
Can they afford all the capex of all the swapping stations? I think so. If they basically had 1 or 2 swapping bays at or very close to Supercharger locations they could cover very high volumes. Two at locations in high traffic corridors, one in less populated, would mean roughly 150 of these bays, at $500K each, $75 million. Two shifts of modest costing labor would add $10 million per year (no need for 24/7, off peak hours with far less volume, if battery swap is out of order, you just deal with Supercharger. Not perfection, but big improvement.
So for roughly $85 million in year 1, and $10 million ongoing they could pay for this. I think 10X that spent in advertising wouldn't do them nearly as much to convince people to buy the cars. And it wouldn't hurt to have two shifts of staff available to help with any Supercharger glitches as well.
Edit: I overestimated that savings of $.20/mile on depreciation on your old battery... that's the cost of using up your existing battery, the cost of replacing those miles of use when you buy a newer more advanced battery will be as much as half as cheap depending how far off in the future you'll be replacing).�
May 10, 2013
ckessel Yea, no way I want to pay $4/gallon equivalent to "charge". I'd much rather have more SC's.
Part of the point in my getting a Tesla is not worrying about mileage costs.�
May 10, 2013
SteveG3 Aargh, I see a big hole in my model, having just gone over a post from DonPedro. I have not included the cost of charging up all those batteries.
If I undersood Don his model suggested $100K/per supercharger. I just looked at this quickly, and a Business Week article I found wrote $250,000 per 5 cars charging. As I've not spent a lot of time on this, I couldn't say what is accurate. If it is $50,000 per one battery charging capacity, that would add $75 million (assuming capacity needed to charge 1,500 batteries, that is 10 batteries at each bay).
Adding $75 million would make this a tougher sell, $160 million in Year 1 now. One possible offset to the $75 million. Most of the battery swap capacity in this model is for peak times. If 95% of the time only 20% of the system is used, that would leave 75% of the power generated by the solar panels for the swap bay available to sell to the grid.
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ckessel did you read the part about how you're not using up miles on your own battery, depreciating it? This offsets at least a good chunk of the cost (granted not all the cost as I now realize your replacement battery will cost less than original battery).�
May 10, 2013
ElSupreme It is the same reason why I don't buy used cars. I don't know if or how that car was taken care of. I will take care of my battery. I don't want a used mystery battery in my car when my warranty is up. I have no idea if it is really a 2 year old battery, that has serious abuse, but only 28% degradation. When my 8 year old battery had 30% degradation. And that 2 year old battery is about to die, on my 8 year old warranty.
40kWh -> 60kWh = +$10k
60kWh -> 85kWh = +$10k
So you are paying ~$10k per 20kWh, so an 85kWh battery packs costs roughly $40k.
And if you want to buy a spare 85kWh battery pack, they run $44k from Tesla. I think that was an installed cost.�
May 10, 2013
aviators99 Actually, it's not. I'm very sensitive about PM scams, and love debunking them. This would be a "powered" roller. But it is definitely fanciful.�
May 10, 2013
AudubonB El Supreme - It's not clear if you're considering that this "mystery battery" would be in your car only for the length of time & miles it takes for you to deplete it, at which point you would be exchanging it for yet another. Put another way, I'm thinking it's darned analogous to the lack of knowledge you have regarding that gas station's fuel that you're about to put into your Bentley...or Yugo...every time you pull in for a fillup with your ICE.
I'm acutely aware of this: I spent a little over $4,300 and three days in southern Idaho back in February, as a result of eight ruined injectors and fuel pump in my diesel F-350, as a result of pouring in a helluvalot of water with bad diesel obtained on the road. Does that mean I never trust any diesel again? Hardly - don't have the choice!
ckessel & jrp3 - Your points are well taken. I was, admittedly, using my driving habits to validate what I consider a game-changing point Mr Musk has made - that "faster than filling up an ICE" tease. FOR ME, that is super-important as refueling is a part of effectively every trip I take.�
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