Thứ Năm, 24 tháng 11, 2016

What is Tesla's upcoming 'under your nose' announcement? part 7

  • Jun 3, 2013
    Rodolfo Paiz
    Personally, if it's a "range extender" battery and not the main unit, I'll take a non-rechargeable battery where the aluminum can be recycled later, 100x over an ICE. I get EV driving dynamics and incredible range, without contributing to pollution.
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  • Jun 3, 2013
    jeff_adams
    A lot of good uses for that tech. You could trickle charge your main pack at night with it. Say you drive home at night and your power is down. Or maybe you go camping where there is no power. Vacation, you do a road trip and the supercharger is out of order. It would be like having an extra can of gas for your ICE. Even Broder couldn't get stranded....
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  • Jun 3, 2013
    jerry33
    Non-rechargable by the consumer. The idea is that you only install them when you are going to require the extra range. (Sure could have used them on last week's trip to Nebraska.)
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  • Jun 4, 2013
    Kraken
    There has been discussion in several threads about the rechargeability of metal air batteries... Looking through Tesla's patents, they clearly have made an effort to crete a means for users to charge metal air batteries at home.
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  • Jun 4, 2013
    WarpedOne
    Such modules would be a much bigger thing than only an EV range extender. They could/should/would replace smallish ICE generators.
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  • Jun 4, 2013
    jeff_adams
    I don't think this tech is ready. I was hoping, but the way Elon answered the first question at the shareholder's meeting leads me to believe that the Air-Metal is not in the cards right now
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  • Jun 4, 2013
    deonb
    I was thinking of the same thing, but you can apply that logic to any of our 3 feasibilities that we came up with. But we know it has to be one of them (or something similar). So his answer was a sandbag, no matter what. I don't see how it particularly eliminates al-air over either battery-exchange or superfast-recharge.
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  • Jun 4, 2013
    jeff_adams
    Because if the auxiliary battery was ready, it could easily be used to charge up the main pack over night. Basically like a generator. Elon acted like that wasn't possible with his answer to her. He would have to be sandbagging BIG TIME with that answer. He would have at least given her a glimmer of hope with a hint of future tech.
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  • Jun 4, 2013
    deonb
    Only (user-)rechargable auxiliary battery would be different. Non-rechargable would be in the same boat as SuperCharger & Battery Exchange. You have to go somewhere for 5 to 20 minutes to get a charge/swap.

    But interestingly, even though he addressed kevin99's question, he did not answer the Lady by saying: "Just wait for June 20th". Which could mean the June 20th solution is still a road-trip-only solution.

    However, if it is, then his "anywhere in the country" part of his original tweet is wrong.

    So either "anywhere in the country" is wrong, or he was sandbagging the lady's question.
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  • Jun 4, 2013
    brianman
    Someone refresh my memory please.

    Has anyone made an exhaustive list of all the parts (known and unknown) that are revealed when removing the nosecone?
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  • Jun 5, 2013
    jeff_adams
    I don't think so. Superchargers are not in the city. Why would he tell her to drive to Gilroy or Folsum from San Francisco for a charge? She's going to be low on juice when she gets back. His "anywhere in the country" was talking about traveling.
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  • Jun 5, 2013
    deonb
    Yeah, I can't dispute that. If you look at the proposed SuperCharger locations, with 98% coverage you can certainly argue 'anywhere in the country'. I would think anywhere in the country is more like something you get at a gas station. The Al-air exchange is the only thing close to fitting that.

    But the SuperCharger locations would slip by on that definition as well. And especially since Elon redacted himself when he initially said worldwide, it would make for a SuperCharger co-location argument.

    On the other hand, maybe it's not relevant. He made it very clear that he thinks that the gas station experience sucks, and one of the best aspects of an EV is that you can charge at home. So even if something like an Al-air exchange program was created and he gets Chevron & BP to sign up and distribute it everywhere, he may still not see it as a good solution for apartment dwellers.
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  • Jun 5, 2013
    jeff_adams
    I was leaning towards the Air battery for the demonstration, but his answer to her convinced me. They're not ready with the tech.
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  • Jun 5, 2013
    deonb
    Ahh. But the demonstration does not need to mean they're ready with the tech. It could still be 2 to 4 years out, but they're about to sign an agreement with a supplier that will "out" them. (Or maybe make an acquisition). So may as well make the best of it now and make a big deal about it via a demo.
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    Mayhemm
    While the could technically do this, I don't think it would go over well. People have come to expect announcements to be reserved for ready-to-deploy products/services, not some arbitrary "this will be available at some undisclosed future date" tease.
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    JRP3
    The Model X demo, and the first supercharger demo, are both examples of Tesla showing something that isn't exactly ready for deployment. Whatever it is I can see them only having one of them working at a single location.
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    Bipo
    IMHO, the cubic space between the front wheels is obviously reserved for the AWD option, as shown in the Model X. It is not reserved for any kind of swappable metal-air battery (because the the AWD models wouldn't be able to use that battery).

    The truly swappable battery is the current battery pack, because is accessible from the bottom of the car and is linked to the body and chassis with a dozen of bolts. Easy job for an automatic swapping machine (a la Better Place). Anyway, SC will be the main long-trip option. I think the swapping tech. is just a technological demonstration and a way to get the ZEV credits.
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    JRP3
    Don't know where it stands but CARB was considering eliminating swapping from getting the fast refuel credit.
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    pfq1982
    Tesla already gets the extra ZEVs for meeting the fast refuel requirement.

    CARB staff recommended closing this "loophole" to the board, and it will probably go into effect. But I think it only applies to 2015 and beyond, anyway. As far as credits, I think Tesla is already maxxed on their ZEV benefits. If June 20 is battery swapping, it won't boost ZEV credit sales.
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    TD1
    Absolutely no need to signup with Gas Stations.
    They could just setup vending machines all over the place to get the Metal-Air Cartiges (like the CocaCola Vending machines) they are quite cheap.
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    FredTMC
    I'm guessing it'll be exactly this demo of air metal tech but TM will say its coming within 12-18 months. Certainly not 2-3 years out. That's too far in future. They need to present that its design being finalized and production design starting soon. Available in 12-18 mo
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  • Jun 6, 2013
    Mayhemm
    Apologies. I should have specified that I was referring to the latest "round" of announcements (loaners, financing, supercharger #2) rather than the older ones. :redface:
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    stopcrazypp
    Source? I have seen no good estimates of how many credits and how much money Tesla actually gets per car for the Model S.

    Just some cold water for the people posting things about Al-air batteries in the frunk, I think people are over-simplifying things.

    First of all, such a battery will need a high voltage (400V) socket that will need to be connected by the user and that socket will need to do a similar handshake like the supercharger for safety. I would think there would be some evidence of this in the frunk if it existed.

    Keep in mind Phinergy never once said how many kWh their pack actually holds and if you see the video the pack is big/heavy enough to need two people to carry. They have thrown around the number of 25kg as the weight, but it's unclear whether this refers to the 50 aluminum plates (anode) only or the entire pack.

    The 8kWh/kg number published by Phinergy is actually the theoretical limit of the aluminum itself (does not include the cathode, electrolyte, CO2 barrier, cell/pack enclosure, cell interconnects, real world inefficiencies). Wikipedia references a paper that says 1.3-2kWh/kg for current and projected Al-air batteries. That gives 50kWh for a 25kg pack. Sure that's much better than Li-ion batteries, but is that good enough for range extension?

    Power is the bigger issue. Theoretical specific power is 0.2kW/kg, so that only provides 5kW of power for 25kg, definitely not near enough power to act as a "range extender". A small car would need 15-20kW for a generator for highway travel. I suspect given the "1000 miles" of range claim by Phinergy, the pack is closer to 200kWh and 100kg given 2kWh/kg, to provide the 15-20kW necessary to serve as a range extender. And a 100kg (220lb) pack is not practical for one person to lift (although possible with two people).
    http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/03/alair-20100323.html
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium%E2%80%93air_battery
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genset_trailer
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    WarpedOne
    Look here
    It is not California, it is New Jersey but nevertheless: MS85 is listed as Type V vehicle and MS60 as type IV vehicle.

    They define Type V as:
    and Type IV as:
    Clearly, SuperChargers don't replace 95% rated energy capacity in less than 15 minutes. Not with MS85 nor with MS60.
    What did TM show them to get Type V moniker?
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    yobigd20
    That is VERY interesting....nice find.
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    JRP3
    I agree with stopcrazypp, the metal air range extender idea is less than likely.
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    Well, you're assuming a serial range-extender that fully drives the car at any speed. If you think of it instead as an assist pack, you could have a half-size pack providing 10kW and then you'd only be drawing 5-10kW from the main pack, which would also get the benefit of any regen. If you have 30kWh usable lithium-ion 7.5kW is 4 hours of driving. The assist pack could also trickle-charge the Li-ion pack at any stop.

    50kg is still heavy, but easy to install with the help of a simple machine and would work nicely in a rental model.

    Nothing coming yet, but I think it's a possible model for the future.

    For June 20th just fixing the damn vampire issue while hiding the fact they had the problem under a barrage of other in-car upgrades and notifications of the beginning of shipping to Europe would be more than enough. And it would help to say "Oh Q2 financials seem to be better than we expected (tee-hee, take that shorties)."
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    imherkimer
    Seems to me that the metal-air, or similar. hybrid battery pack range extender is the only option discussed here so far that is likely.
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    daveruns
    Under your nose...How about a spare battery pack that could be picked up at the supercharger location and would fit under the hood. Might be pretty heavy, but perhaps air suspension system could compensate and maybe an auto loading mechanism could take it in and out. When you get to the next charge station, you swap it out. Just a thought....
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    WarpedOne
    There is *no* need for it to be a single 50 kg block. Make it into 5 cartridges @ 10kg each or something similar.
    What is even more important and useful is that there is only one real limit how many of such blocks one could take along - max curb weight.
    Connect 5 cartridges, add 5 in frunk and another 5 in trunk, range charge and voila 230kWh or ~700 miles of autonomy (with 2kWh/kg modules).
    When main battery and those 5 connected modules get depleted, just stop *anywhere* and connect other 5 modules, ~2 minutes. Repeat after another 150miles if not sooner.

    Such modules would have another big use (assuming no internal leakage): electric reserve - just buy some and put them into frunk. When stalled/in danger of stallin - connect.

    This thing must happen. If not by Tesla than by someone else.

    I assume you mean same battery chemistry as in main pack i.e. LiIon 18650 3100mAh - these have ~250Wh/kg.
    A 50kg block without liquid cooling and all that safety stuff would hold 12kWh and add about 30 miles of range.
    A 50kg block with liquid cooling and all that safety stuff as in main pack would hold ~6kWh and add about 15 miles of range.
    It is not worth the trouble.
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    napabill
    And it will be affectionally known as a "Broder Pack.":smile:
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    roblab
    +1, napabill!

    Unless, of course, this is not a politically correct statement, in which case, still +1.
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    johnnydop
    Beating a dead horse, i know. Just had to get this off my chest.

    Perhaps we are all overcomplicating things here. (its scary that I think about what he�ll announce as I get into bed at night)

    Elon is all about making the whole process quick, easy, and convenient. He does not want to make things more complicated. Adding another battery that is swappable or has a replaceable cartridge could confuse potential buyers and current owners.

    They might ask:

    Does the extra battery come with the car?
    Is it swappable for a fee?
    Will I be able to swap it out at any SC station?
    Instead of swapping, will the metal cartridge just be replaceable? For how much?

    The simplest most efficient answer to what he hinted is:

    A second charging port located �under the nose� of the car that you either plug in or perhaps drive over and use via induction. The main battery pack must be split into two sections. The car will know when the two charging ports are used and will direct the current from each port to its respective part of the battery. That will then reduce the 20 min charge to down 10 minutes.

    Ahhhhhh! Even as I write I�m still not 100% convinced and the possibility of a secondary battery still exists. I think this because if it was a simple addition of a second charging port, why not just announce that during the SC announcement. It would have made sense since the announcement was related to charging. The bullet summary of the call would have looked like this:

    �-We are expanding and accelerating our SC station rollout.

    -You�ll now have the ability to charge at 120kw which will reduce charging time to 20 min.

    -We also plan to use a second charging port on the car which will allow you to connect two chargers at the same time thus reducing your charge time to 10 minutes (hence the increased amount of ports and longer cords at the SC stations).

    -This extra port will require a minor install on all existing MS�s for a one-time fee of $300 (arbitrary number) and can be factory installed on new orders�

    Instead, he saved this announcement for last, why?

    1. In his grand plan to kill the shorts he purposely ordered the announcements in a manner of least to most important/newsworthy.

    2. He also wouldn�t comment on his hyperloop idea until after this announcement. That seems very strange and makes one think the technology he�s thinking to use for the hyperloop is similar to what he�s announcing. Why else wouldn�t he candidly talk about the hyperloop idea that he has no interest in pursuing.

    3. It�s got to be something different than simply adding another charging port which easily could have been rolled into the SC announcement.

    My head hurts!
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    Johan
    Ah... another case of the Tesla-Elon fever epidemic... Been there done that :) I too think of it way to often and way too much.

    For what it's worth: I don't think it will be another charging port. The whole "splitting the battery in two partitions" makes as little sense as saying: "I'll take my hard drive and create two partitions, and then when I copy files to it I'll be able to copy at double the speed if I'm copying to both partitions at the same time.". If the battery can take whatever charge rate it can take, there is no point in partitioning it.

    Inductive charging, now that's interesting! But for these rates???
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    johnnydop
    I see what you mean but the battery doest get the same amount of current the whole time. The wattage ramps up to 120kw then gradually slows down to a trickel. Elons "filling a glass of water to the brim" example comes to mind. Perhaps charging them seperately will allow the ramp up/slow down to occur in manner that results in a quicker charge. Just a guess of course.
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    JRP3
    Inductive charging, as you drive. It's faster than stopping at a gas station because you never stop, and currents can be lower because you're still driving so it doesn't have to happen quickly. Now, has anyone seen a long stretch of highway being dug up for a trench of inductive cabling? :wink:
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    Johan
    That highway will be on top of the hyperloop trench. "Tesla only" :)
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    jeff_adams
    Maybe they got the idea from Broder? Drive around in circles around the supercharger and you will be charged up. :wink:
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    deonb
    I have to ask - I know Al-air batteries requires water to operate. Are the plates re-usable a couple of times with a water top-op, or are they always replaced in-step?


    i.e. If you have e.g. a 1000 mile al-air battery, do you add water for all 1000 miles? Or do you add it for e.g. 250 miles at a time and then replace it?

    In the case of the latter you would have a period water fill-up which can be 'faster than a gas fill-up', and can be done 'anywhere in the country'.
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    Mayhemm
    Elon has said repeatedly that he didn't want to talk about the hyperloop because, if he did, all the media coverage would be on that and not on the Tesla announcement(s).

    Our highways look like they're being dug up. Does that count?
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  • Jun 7, 2013
    stopcrazypp
    The problem with that idea is you not only have to swap the assist pack every stop, but you also have to charge the car every stop too since you will consume energy from the main pack. That does not satisfy the criteria for faster than gas fill up. Also I use 25kg (55lbs) because that is the limit that you can expect an average person to carry/lift.
    http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-efficiency-and-range

    This is a much better idea, but again quite hand-wavy. You are forgetting the battery tray and connections needed for each of these cartridges. Keep in mind that an Al-air cell only has a nominal voltage of 1.2V, so you would have to wire these cells in series. Also don't forget you need to refill with water after using every 1/5 of the pack (Phinergy says every 200 miles for their 1000 mile pack) and there would need to be plumbing for this too, making it even more difficult for the cartridge idea (otherwise you would have to refill water for every cartridge separately).

    None of this sounds like an elegant solution compared to plugging in a cable or swapping one pack as a whole, so I doubt this will appeal to Elon. I think Elon would much prefer a rechargeable metal-air battery that does not involve all this complication for the user.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You add water every 200 miles according to Phinergy. Otherwise you would need a large water container.
    http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1083111_phinergy-1000-mile-aluminum-air-battery-on-the-road-in-2017
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  • Jun 9, 2013
    WarpedOne
    deonb:
    It really depends on details of implementation, exact chemical/mechanical process used, form factor, support mechanism etc. Of course you don't need to add all the water upfront, you could do 'partial' fill-ups on the go, the question is what to do with used aluminum. If you keep it in the cells, the whole system weight goes up with every watter fill. The best would be if used aluminum would be a liquid you could pump/drain out of the system (and sell for recycling) and then add fresh water. But this is all speculative until we see a prototype.

    A little problem or 'blind spot' I sense is that the main research is on how to make MetalAir modules rechargable - i.e. a secondary battery just like LiIon is.
    Such cartridges don't need to be rechargeable - they are a primary battery, just set up a recycling process and all is fine and dandy.

    Here is a list of lithium chemistries. LithiumAir is listed at having up to 1800Wh/kg and than they say
    Throw away "it must be rechargeable" part and produce 15 kWh primary batteries in ~10 kg cartridges. 5 such in frunk would double M85 range.

    For example:
    50 kg of such modules holds ~35 kWh (over 100 miles of range).
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    yobigd20
    So it is battery swapping after all according to Elon's tweet last night.

    Tesla's 'Faster Than You Could Fill A Gas Tank' Recharge Is Battery Swapping After All - Forbes

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/346895679471357952
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    ZestyChicken
    To be totally honest, I really don't want Tesla to pursue battery swapping. I think it's an enormous money drain. The Superchargers are fine. Concentrate there. That's enough of a capital outlay for a company that only sells 20,000 cars a year. Concentrate on improving the car, the Superchargers, making the batteries better.

    Going coast to coast with the car is such a non-issue. Sure you can do it, but how often would you want to? Once in life? Maybe if you were a college student living on the east coast and going to Stanford, but college students aren't really the demographic you go after with a $80,000 car.

    People can rent a gasser if they want to do that or use their other car. I realize there are a few of us who have two electric cars, but I think that's a little nuts. At least get a hybrid for the second car...
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    Palpatine
    4.3% of trips are over 100 miles
    0.1% of trips are over 200 miles

    That is all you need to know about battery swaps. It is an obsolete concept.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    nrcooled
    So to pull this all back together again how does tis relate to the "It's right under your nose" statement?

    Does this mean that we already have a bigger battery? Or a capability that we didn't know about? We all knew that swapping was possible so is there something I am missing?

    Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 4 Beta
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    Lloyd
    I think there is more to Elon's tweet than the obvious! We may still be surprised!!

    :eek:
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    gaswalla
    yeah.. the under your nose comment, the patents, the hoopla surrounding this, the fact that it's a demonstration (ie: proof of concept), and the timing of Elon's tweets... this isn't just pulling a battery out from underneath and putting in a different one.. Hoping to be surprised.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    Darko
    Agreed, there's definitely more to it than the conventional wisdom so far. There has been a rush to consensus that battery swapping refers to the main battery because of some perceived smoking gun quote- I just don't see it, not because it wouldn't be possible for Tesla to demonstrate some gee-whiz Jetson's robotic solution, but because it would be an unwieldy program for Tesla to roll out. I keep going back to some range-extender solution - the most conspiratorial of all would be that there is some range extender already buried in the car - now that would be under your nose. Of course I can make such speculation because I know so little about battery technology, but I'm definitely looking to be surprised Thursday.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    deonb
    That's number of trips. You need to look at number of miles. 15% of all miles driven are for trips over 100 miles.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    hans
    Battery swaps don't have to enable long personal trips. It's useful for commercial fleets like taxi cabs, or delivery vans. You don't have to build out a huge network of swap stations either. One swap station at the airport, or at the post office/courier depot, can service the entire fleet of vehicles.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    deonb
    Elon just mentioned on Reuters Insider that if battery swapping is popular it will be rolled out to all of the SuperCharger locations (200 of them).

    The scenario is road trips.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    JRP3
    It's the main pack swapping that's going to be demoed. The ability to swap the main pack has always been built into the car, "under your nose". They may show the ability to swap in a larger pack, but I'm not counting on it.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    moollar
    The Forbes story has been updated. At about the middle of the article you now see this update:
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    jerry33
    In addition, one of the reasons is high fuel prices. With EVs, I fully expect a larger percentage of long trips because it costs so little. Already 30% of my accumulated miles are "over 100 mile trips". And besides that the 4.3% and 0.1% are the average of every car--including garage queens. In my opinion, that kind of average is meaningless when applied to regular middle class suburban folks.
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  • Jun 18, 2013
    moollar
    Yeah, that's an interesting point. Would be very interesting to see the median versus the average.
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  • Jun 19, 2013
    ZestyChicken
    You think garage queens are anything but a rounding fraction of total vehicles? Maybe to the auto enthusiast crowd, but in general I would say you could forget that in your calculations.
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  • Jun 19, 2013
    jerry33
    That was a convenient label that everyone understands. There are also lots of urban dwellers that only use their car on the weekends, and low income folks who aren't going to be able to afford any electric car for some time (until there are ten year old + Leafs and such) who also don't drive very far. The number that would make sense is the number for middle class suburbanites, which I've never seen.
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  • Jun 20, 2013
    NigelM
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