May 11, 2013
mitch672 This post probably belongs in the "investors subforum", but since we are talking about "Better Place", might be worth getting a few shares of their stock, you know, just in case something is announced shortly
�
May 11, 2013
CapitalistOppressor They are traded on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. I've been trying to run down how to invest for at least an hour. All I can find on English Google is a Israeli story warning people not to invest in them, lol�
May 11, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt It makes sense to save the craziest idea for last.
The "demonstration" is probably actually going to be pretty cool. Anybody live near the Hawthorne location that can see if the hardware needed could be in the area? I think that's where the demonstration is supposed to be, right?�
May 11, 2013
brianstorms Another thing.
If you swap out a battery, there's suddenly no power to the car, right?
So, that's no good. So there would have to be continuous power to the car so it doesn't get "bricked" right? So would you have to plug in a charger into the charger receptacle before beginning a swap? Is the car wired so it (meaning the computers, the dash, the 17-in display, etc) can operate fully on charger-power only while the battery is removed?�
May 11, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Christ, I do but I'm out of state, lol. This will be in the news soon. Hope they had their ducks in a row since they knew the news would be out with the 10Q. Elon needs to get ahead of this if he wants his announcement to happen before the MSM publishes 5 million stories.
- - - Updated - - -
There must be an adapter that the robot plugs into. It probably needs to activate actuators inside of the battery to seal it prior to disconnecting the sealant lines. I really have no clue as to specifics of the engineering, but these are trivial issues to solve, and would have been designed into the car very early in the process.�
May 11, 2013
PureAmps I'm not a big believer in the whole battery swap idea. Compared to superchargers, the capital costs would be significantly higher, the operating/maintenance costs would be higher, and there are many unknowns that add risk including wear/tear on the batteries, the pack connectors (both electrical and fluid), fasteners, etc. I think it only makes sense with the leased battery pack model where there is a constant stream of revenue to offset those costs. And better Place has not been successful with that model so far.
Elon/Telsa have said a number of things over the years that they ended up bailing on. For example, the Model S (WhiteStar) was originally going to have a range extender option, they've clearly abandoned that. Elon has discussed battery swap for a very long time, and clearly not abandoned the idea. With regards to this being mentioned in the 10-Q, it has been there for a while. From the company's first 10-Q, filed August, 2010:
The formatting/wording has changed from time to time, but the language did not materially change until last quarter's 10-K:
Tesla is clearly still hinting (or misdirecting?) at this strategy. I personally believe they have some unannounced tech built into the packs already, which is why it is "under our nose". It probably required further software development, testing, etc. before they could enable it. What it is, who knows? Elon researched ultra capacitors, JB Straubel has done work with flywheels. They both have done creative research in energy storage systems. Maybe they've invented something new... Maybe, just maybe, this is the same tech that powers the hyperloop...�
May 11, 2013
mitch672 I think their symbol is: BETPLAP but I can't manage to even get any kind of quote/recent price.�
May 11, 2013
aronth5 Where I work our mantra is to make constantly strive to make the complex simpler. To me adding battery swapping does the opposite adding lots of complexity to Tesla's service model. Now you have to add a service component to maintain and service the robots when they break. And they will break. That adds cost and additional staff. Why?
One reason why Tesla has been so successful is the simplicity of the buying experience and of course everything about the car. Adding all the overhead to coordinate battery pack replacements across the country and around the globe just seems to contradict their current business approach. Give me a battery with close to 400 mile range and with one supercharging session I can easily drive 500 miles in day. Bottom line is why complicate the existing business model?
Like most other announcements by Elon this is over-hyped.�
May 11, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I've been watching their SEC filings now for the past year. The change is that previous comments were always a qualified statement that Tesla "might" pursue battery swap at some point.
Yesterday's filing was clear that they WILL announce battery swap in the near future. It's a done deal.�
May 11, 2013
brianstorms "Why complicate the existing business model?" If for no other reason, to give the wider public One More Reason to Buy. One more reason to at least think about going electric.
But you make valid points, and raise valid concerns. I agree, simple is the way to go. So perhaps Tesla tasked a bunch of engineers to figure out a solution that uses as few moving parts, as few complications, as few potentials for breakdowns, and see if the impossible could be achieved? Or, to come up with a solution that may not be perfect, but is so compelling while staying within economic boundaries that it's time to green-light the project and get it out into the world, damn the torpedoes? We'll find out soon enough.�
May 11, 2013
andrewket The car's control systems are all 12V, and there is a 12V battery on-board. The you should be able to disconnect the main battery without the control systems losing power for many hours.�
May 11, 2013
voidptr Bricking doesn't happen because the computers power down, it happens because lithium ion cells break down when the charge goes below a certain level and won't take a new charge.�
May 11, 2013
SteveG3 This all just keeps making more sense, and I think it is complementary to SCs. The Swappers could be at the 100 or so locations they feel are needed to cover NA with 120-150 mile spacing. Keep Superchargers there as free offering and back up.
If they really want to go big, they could spend another $30 million to double the amount of SC locations (or perhaps spend more for an even higher multiple). If SCs were 70 miles or even 50 miles apart, it would balance demand on the system, allow more flexibility in choosing your route, and make it extremely unlikely to be caught in a range pickle without intentionally doing so.
We may get more clues about the plan this Friday (I believe that's the planned day to announce re Supercharger).
fwiw on a point of earlier discussion... with swapping, I think the batteries within the system would run up a life's worth of miles (say 125K) in about 3 years, much quicker than I thought before).�
May 11, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt I bet Elon is reading this thread and thinking "Superswapper! That's catchy!"�
May 11, 2013
aronth5 The 3 most things Tesla can do to promote sales are 1) better batteries, 2) more supercharging stations and 3) Gen3. Focus on those and everything else follows. And of course continue to improve the Model S and start delivering the Model X late next years are a given.�
May 11, 2013
PureAmps Yes, I've been reading them for a while as well. But, that was a good catch, I did miss the *will* part in your quote from the latest filing (which I haven't read yet).
I still remain skeptical of the whole battery swapping concept. They must be partnering with somebody who has a lot of locations (and car lifts) to do this. I just don't see them rapidly rolling out a bunch of automated battery swap centers nationwide any time soon.�
May 11, 2013
SteveG3 I think your tempered approach is on point. As someone wrote on another thread, they may be announcing that they are rolling out a test program in CA. As other poster noted, it's where half the cars are, and it's close to all the engineers at the beehive to make sure the whole thing doesn't run amok.
edit: plus with a test program, they'll probably get a lot of feedback that tells them if it's something the public wants from discussions like this (not to mention the feedback from CA test case).�
May 11, 2013
brianstorms As a reminder, there's this 2011 mention of Elon discussing battery swaps and the Model S:
New details emerge on battery swap plans for Tesla Model S
�
May 11, 2013
yobigd20 Might I remind you all about last June's annual shareholder meeting Q&A session:
Musk: "the Model S was intentionally architected to support fast battery swapping, in under one minute". He also said "I think we will show you something interesting in that regard."
Gee, we have a demonstration upcoming in a week or two, right? I wonder what that could all be about ..... putting 2 + 2 together here...I will be absolutely SHOCKED if it is not battery swapping.�
May 11, 2013
bollar The combination makes sense to me, as least as an interim technology while we wait for longer range batteries. There are some long legs in the center of the country where stopping for a 30+ minute charge just isn't ideal, especially if you're trying to cover very long ground and will be making these stops every 150 miles.
In the Texas forum, there has been a lot of discussion about possible locations for Superchargers -- Like between Dallas & Houston, a commute I know well. Though I'm willing to stop for 30 minutes for a top off, it's not ideal -- there's no destination worth stopping at [and the Buckees in Madisonville doesn't count] for that period of time.
Or, for long road trips, like along the I 40 corridor in NM, AZ & TX, maybe you'd want to have Superchargers near Amarillo, Albuquerque and Flagstaf and battery swap in between those cities (Santa Rosa, Winslow & Kingman). That will force a longer stop every other stop and that seems to very complementary to the concept of a grand touring car.
Having Superchargers in big cities is also a nice benefit to the local Teslas.�
May 11, 2013
jerry33 No way would I ever trust Toyota with my Model S. They can't even change the oil correctly in a Prius unless you bring them a pre-measured amount of the correct oil. But it might make a good plot for a horror movie.�
May 11, 2013
CapitalistOppressor They are planning on $200m in CapEx for 2013. That seemed like a big number.
- - - Updated - - -
At least big in relation to things we expect them to do. Makes perfect sense if there is a large SuperSwapper component.�
May 11, 2013
mitch672 I just want to credit CO with the term "SuperSwapper", lets see if that's what Elon calls them, you might be due a nice "thanks" from Elon�
May 11, 2013
Nixx Do we know how much of the model s manufacturing line will be used for the model x? Do they have to ramp up a pile of machinery to get the model x going? I assume if they started buying that equipment now (or 2013 that is), it could be setup this year and testing / beta models could be produced next year before they start delivering in 2014q4?�
May 11, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I'd be happy to take a P85+ in exchange for the trademark on it :biggrin:�
May 11, 2013
ModelS8794 Better Place is still a private firm. There is an Israeli holding company that is publicly traded and has made a significant investment in Better Place, but that investment is a tiny portion of the holding company's value, so investing in it wouldn't get you much in the way of exposure to BP.�
May 11, 2013
Jonathan Hewitt I don't think they will go for that. :O FYI, the T-shirts and Hats are pretty cool, too.�
May 11, 2013
deonb How do you consolidate this with:
"throughout the country"
"worldwide"
"under your nose"�
May 11, 2013
Royal TS(LA) I'm not convinced about the battery pack being tied to your personal car. You buy the car to drive electrically, not to have a specific battery pack. The packs are just necessary baggage to keep the thing moving. If there was a way to quickly exchange a vehicle's gasoline tank with a preloaded one in 5 secs, would you reject it just because it's not your old tank? Quality management of those things is something Tesla must be concerned about, not the customer. Looking at images of the car's underside, swapping must have been designed in from the start. It's the only logical explanation, alongside certain more or less official statements about swapping capabilities.
I don't get why the super chargers would get redundant with swapping? You still need the power electronics to do a regular super charge anyways. I think that when the SC hardware is not used by clients, it simply charges the handful of packs stored underground and keeps them in an optimal state. And remember, the packs would be almost fully charged. A regular super charge takes half an hour and only brings like half the battery capacitance back. Maybe the underground charging could even be faster by means of cooling the packs while charging. Maybe they can even go up to 200 kW without damaging or overheating them with cooling, which is not possible when attached to a Model S.
If a client needs a preloaded battery pack, the touch control could display where and how many preloaded packs are available. Maybe there could even be a simple reservation system that can be used on the road.�
May 12, 2013
DonPedro Let's remember that at this time, an investment of, say, $100-200 million is not enormous for Tesla. Around 2% of market cap, less than 10% of annual sales. They could easily pay for it tomorrow by issuing 2M shares (there may be a link here).
I think PR-wise, it will be important to launch this in a way that makes everyone see it as "pure upside", so that nobody who is already a believer today starts doubting. Also, as people have pointed out, peak demand for swapping could be a bitch. If the swapping is launched as an extra, they might get away with not promising that it will always be available. A reservation system could solve that, by the way: If you reserve in advance, you are 100% certain of getting a swap. If you do a drop-in you will get a swap, except at some very rare peak times. If that happens to you, you have the SC as a backup.�
May 12, 2013
Ben W There's been quite a bit of speculation about swapping the 1000-pound battery pack, and also speculation about sticking a 50-pound aluminum-air battery in the frunk for non-rechargeable extended range.
What if the two ideas were combined? Suppose the entire 1000-pound battery pack were replaced with an equivalent aluminum-air battery, or a combination lithium-ion / aluminum-air / distilled-water, designed specifically for long-distance road trips (e.g. lower peak power, high energy density)? Might it be possible to swap a self-contained 1000-mile NON-rechargeable battery pack into the existing modular battery space, just for a road trip? This I'd like to see.�
May 12, 2013
Mayhemm This reminded me of something. People taking advantage of the hypothetical battery swap service would be road-tripping, yes? So would the battery they receive be range/max charged to enable them to continue on their trip with the maximum range? Or would they have to swap packs and then plug in somewhere in order to maximize range?�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) Although a 1000-mile pack sounds nice, it would add a lot of complexity, and thus cost, to the system. You'd need a facility for refurbishing the used up metal-air battery. I think that the more uniformly the whole system can be handled, the better for everyone.
- - - Updated - - -
A freshly swapped battery pack should be fully charged and ready for immediate use to give the customer maximum convenience and reach. The half-hour charge is only an example for a typical stay to eat and refresh. Half charge would perhaps force additional stops taking half an hour, while full charge means half the stops in theory. So, if you want to shave off a couple hours on a long-distance trip, swapping is the way to go IMHO.�
May 12, 2013
Johann Koeber The battery swapping would allow Tesla to market a Gen III car without a battery, as does Renault. Renault sells you a car, but you must lease the battery.�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) That would be the most cost efficient solution for the customer. Like, the car costs $20k plus battery lease for $1500 a year.�
May 12, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Everyone needs to keep in mind the $200m in CapEx that Tesla announced in the conference call on Wednesday. That a a fairly huge sum of money for a company that to all appearances has relatively modest capital needs, while having a pressing desire to stay profitable.
In the mid 80's Tom Clancy published "Red Storm Rising" which was, by far, my favorite book while growing up. A major factor in that book was the "maskirovka" that the Russians implemented to fool NATO. Later, when I was taking all of my Security Studies classes for my IR degree, I learned that a "maskirovka" was a real thing, and that basically it amounts to having a plausible cover story to explain your visible actions, so as to conceal your true intent.
My current thesis is that the widely discussed expansion of "service centers" which was supposed to explain the $200m in CapEx, is actually the Tesla maskirovka to conceal their SuperSwapper scheme until they are ready to announce. If you think about it, its not even lying. Tesla probably does have problems with service that they will need to invest in to fix.
But a SuperSwapper might well be considered a type of "service center". And you can even interpret previous halfhearted reports that they might let Model S drivers swap batteries at "service centers" as just a part of the maskirovka that has been being implemented for a year now.
Reality check: This thesis is based on conjecture whose foundation is pure speculation. Tesla might announce a minimal "swapping" system like they described a few months ago, where cars with smaller batteries could go to a service center and swap in an 85kWh battery on a rental like basis. That made some sense when 40kWh cars were still a thing. Except of course, that program was cancelled, and all cars are SuperCharger capable. And its completely inconsistent with Elon's tweet.
Reality check 2: Battery swap is not planned and will not happen. Seems to be clearly contradicted by the 10k filed yesterday.
My momma taught me to go big or go home. I filed a report on Seeking Alpha on this, so if they decide to publish it I am going to look like an utter fool if Tesla announces something completely off the wall.
But on the bright side, I am going to go visit my mom tomorrow. So I'm covered either way.�
May 12, 2013
Yggdrasill That's what I suggested here. Assuming a little over 1 kWh/kg, the Model S battery pack could be replaced by an aluminium-air battery pack with around 400 kWh, which should be enough to propel a Model S for more than 1000 miles.
This is a business model I can support. Regular battery swapping won't be as fast as filling gas, no matter what Musk says, but swapping 1000 mile batteries can be as fast. That means that driving San Francisco - New York, one would have to stop three times for 10 minutes or so. The entire US could probably be served by 10 battery swapping stations. (While to cover the US with sufficient battery swapping stations using regular batteries, you'd need hundreds of battery swap stations.)
The biggest downsides with aluminium-air is that they aren't rechargeable, and the energy cost is more than twice as high. This matters very little when you ditch the battery at a specialized battery swap station, where they can put in new aluminium, and you'd only use the batteries for the occasional long-distance trip, so the cost is largely irrelevant.
Edit: I occurs to me that you would probably want to keep a small portion of the regular li-ion cells, maybe 10-20 kWh, lest the customer having rented an al-air battery would become stranded far away from a battery swap station with no way to recharge.�
May 12, 2013
yobigd20 The way Elon keeps telling us not to worry about the battery packs and that it's 100% guaranteed by him really makes me think that this battery swapping idea is legit. Any issues just "swing by and we'll swap it out" sort of thing. I mean they haven't followed any other typical car tradition other than having 4 wheels so why start now? It's this "thinking out of the box" paradigm that led them to be successful in the first place.
Battery swapping would not only solve "fast charging", it would also solve any "degradation" doubts that people have (this assuming that you don't need to come back to get your own battery back, that the swapped battery is just as good as it was when the car was bought). It doesn't really make sense to mass produce millions of cars (e.g. Gen III) with a technology (Li-ion) knowing that they just might degrade too low simultaneously in 15 years or so. If battery swaps were free, hell - if battery swaps were even under some sort of "yearly lease", all of the sudden both problems are solved. Every time someone doubts something that Elon says he can do, it drives him more to prove them wrong. While a visionary, he is also practical. I really think this battery swapping idea is what the demo is going to be. It certainly makes sense business-wise to do this (increasing 4 to 7 ZEV credits). I mean if someone said to your business "hey, if you prove you can do this easy thing that you said you already designed the car to be able to do in the first place, then you'll get millions of dollars for free" uh well doh, hello, why not?�
May 12, 2013
Kaivball Still very expensive.
SC's do not require a human presence.
Swapping a battery requires at least on full time person 24/7 available that confirms that all fittings are done, screws are tightened, etc.
Quickly moving 1000 pounds and the storing it in racks is not trivial.
Especially if logistics are needed to return the original battery to an owner.
I very much doubt they are ready and/or have a practical solution.
Just think of the math:
How many batteries of $15k each?
What happens when all batteries are taken?
This is too expensive of a solution for such a small fraction of vehicles that will need it. Removing and reinstalling a structural chassis element is not done in haste and without supervision and confirmation.
I don't think it's practical or needed.�
May 12, 2013
Johan One aspect of this whole swapping thing is that if EVs prove to be much lower maintenance as is believed, and the drive-train has outstandig longevity, then you might have a very nice car with a crappy battery after 10 years. So instead of owning a battery it's better to have a lease. This way, not only is the degradation issue solved (for the customer) but also in 10 years you might have a 120kWh or 150kWh pack as a standard. My thoughts are that as battery techonology progresses the first thing we will see is them still filling the whole pack with better and better cells until you reach a certain level (for example 150kWh). After that level has been reached there really is no point in keep improving the total energy of the pack further, even as techonology progresses, but instead you would start cutting down on weight in the pack while keeping the form factor. Over time this could mean that you are only filling half of the pack with cells, cutting down on weight and perhaps also on cost eventually, something Tesla might be able to let the customer get the benefit from (lower lease costs).
I could also see a model where you either have unlimited swapping or another subscription with a lower montly lease where you pay-per-swap but still get to swap once in a while for free when new battery technology/chemistry is being rolled out. (it would be in Tesla's interest that people swapped when the batteries are upgraded, as the "old" ones would have considerable residual value for other uses, and also to make the "new" batteries they would probably take the old ones and re-use many parts of the pack while changing out some - especially the cells themselves). Also, if supercapacitors become practical in the future I guess you could keep the form factor and create a hybrid battery within the current pack.
One problem for them right now would be that they have sold the 60kWh and 85kWh cars and they would either have to carry two different types of batteries in the swapping stations. Alternatively, if they go forward with just one battery pack for swapping, they would somehow have to differentiate between the 60 and 85 owners so that either the 85 buyers are compensated somehow (lower lease fee, free leasing for 8 years) or the opposite - 60 owners "punished" with higher lease, only 4 years of free leasing etc.
Even with swapping the majority of charging would take place at home, overnight. However, swapping would enable those who are unable to charge at home to own and drive an EV (think Tokyo, Hong-Kong, Manhattan etc.).�
May 12, 2013
jerry33 Until they find out that the battery pack that they received only has ~180 miles range left rather than ~250. Sure, that won't happen on day-one, but it will happen.�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) I'm an electrical engineer, so I can quite imagine how they did it. I'd supersize the newly produced battery pack to e.g. 125% of nominal capacity to easily reach its intended use-case of 300 miles for the 85 kWh model and keep a safety margin to allow a "dry" Tesla car to reach the next recharge station anyways. While charging the battery, there's a record created of how much charge or energy was pumped into the pack. Then during normal driving operation, the amount of extracted energy or charge is being logged until a certain lower battery voltage is reached, precisely indicating the safe limit of energy extraction before deep discharge and thus damaging of the battery. By comparing effectively extracted energy with loaded energy it becomes easy to get a grip on how old the battery pack has grown. Older packs deliver less and less usable energy for the same amount of charge pumped into them, which can be easily measured.
So I think it is extremely unlikely that a user would discover a spontaneous loss of 70 miles, like in your example. The battery would have been invisibly disposed of quite some time before actual near-death.�
May 12, 2013
Mayhemm If the battery swap thing goes forward, I think it makes sense for Tesla to offer a leased-battery model.
Starting as of some arbitrary future date, you'll be able to purchase a Model S without a battery. This would remove the cost of battery purchase from the price of the car (perhaps making it truly $50k once again). In this case you would be required to sign a lease agreement either on a yearly plan or a pay-as-you-go arrangement (similarly to how the service plans currently work).
If you live in a remote area unlikely to be served by swapping stations or simply do not want the service, you can stick with the current model (purchase your battery with the car).
They may even introduce a program for current owners where you can donate your current battery in exchange for credit of some kind. This may be a prorated cash payout based on the condition of your battery or perhaps free battery-swapping service for the life of your vehicle. This would reduce the number of batteries Tesla would need to produce for the program and also provide an attractive opportunity for current Model S owners.
When a 60kWh owner signs up for the program, their battery would be recycled. All swapper batteries would be 85kwh in order to avoid having to store two types of battery.
Thoughts?�
May 12, 2013
JRP3 Don't know how this might affect things: Battery Swapping may not count as fast charging with CARB
�
May 12, 2013
jeff_adams My issue with the battery swap theory is infrastructure. The current super charger locations would not work for swapping sites (imho). There is really no place for the equipment you would need there.
Using existing service centers doesn't work either, because those are in cities close to customers who would start with fully charged batteries, not in the inbetween areas that chargers are needed. So Tesla would have to open up new sites just for swapping.�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) I just wondered, did anyone weigh empty 60 kWh and 85 kWh models? I'm asking because I see a possibility that (like in many products nowadays) the battery packs could be all the same (i.e. all packs are 85 kWh packs) and there's just a firmware difference. Just thinking, just thinking..
- - - Updated - - -
Not necessarily. Elon gave a hint with "under your nose". Well, if you're sitting in the recharging spot with your car and look ahead, where is "under your nose"? Right, directly below the car's bottom. Must be some cloaked but prepared space underneath the parking slot.�
May 12, 2013
ShortSlaver I really like this concept. I have no idea how viable it is, but it's a great idea if at all possible. How these batteries are subsidized is beyond me and introducing a leasing mechanism where you more or less rent batteries and pay a yearly fee sort of sounds like buying gasoline. However, it lowers initial cost of ownership...�
May 12, 2013
jeff_adams Doubtful. No one ever reported seeing the parking spaces being "dug up" during super charging construction. There are no hiden robots under the ground. To do swapping would require space equivalent to a "Jiffy Lube" structure. Current supercharger locations cannot support that kind of space. Think about the new superchargers going in at Normal. They will be located on the top of a parking garage. No way to mount anything underneath them. No available space nearby to store batteries. Swapping can't possibly be done at that site.�
May 12, 2013
JRP3 I believe the vehicle stickers show about 180lb difference.�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) Well.. that's what the stickers show. But is it true? (^^)�
May 12, 2013
SteveG3 re recent ideas posted here
leasing some love it, some hate it. How to please everyone? let it be an option buy car for less money and lease, buy car and battery and store battery if you swap (Elon specifically mentioned storing for travel in the past).
expense of infrastructure I picked this up from another thread on the topic... make it part of the $1900/4 year service option that has recently become optional. I also could see it being offered as "service plus" for say $2,400 for 4 years. You can go not service plan, service, or service +. I've looked at the numbers and I think a 50% increase in people choosing service + would go a long way to covering expense. People who don't opt in could swap for a per use charge.
expense of swapping batteries charge something like $.20 per mile used of swapper system's batteries... this would pay for these batteries
60 kWh batteries they may have a different mass, but they are the same structure, so could be swapped for an 85kWh and stored. Tesla can make this fair to 85kWh owners by charging more to 60 kWh for use of swapped in pack... i.e. $.25/mile used
Infrastructure perhaps an issue at some SC stations, but the only one I saw (Newark, DE) could easily handle a big enough facility. I don't think it would take an amount of space larger than a typical gas station/mini mart. Some politics may have some states not so friendly to this, but in general, I think they'd get a lot of SC locations to do this, and where they can't, off nearest exit, set up the SuperSwapper (again, these will be between cities... cheap real estate)
Metal Air down the road this could be ready for gen III as a range extender, avoiding swapping system being swamped. this may be getting crazy, but it could even be an option for S/X on top of swapping in a few years... that way you don't have issues of overcrowded swappers during holidays, or showing up with 20 mile range left to find SuperSwapper super out of order.�
May 12, 2013
Thinker +1
- - - Updated - - -
+1�
May 12, 2013
jeff_adams I just don't see Tesla leaning this direction. The latest Supercharger we have heard about coming up is in Normal. The location for the charger is the top floor of a parking garage. There is no room for swapping infrastructure up there. Not only that, but Tesla never mentioned swapping to the city counsel.�
May 12, 2013
zax123 For those of you who *don't* think it's battery swapping... can you suggest anything else that would take only minutes to achieve yet yield a fully charged battery? Electrically, I don't think it can be done...�
May 12, 2013
brianman Technically, Elon didn't say it could be done without causing significant degradation. I don't think he meant in a damaging way, but the door was left open in his phrasing.�
May 12, 2013
Johan The laws of physics cannot be twisted, even by Elon. The cable would be thicker than anything you've ever seen and there would have to be a connector the size of an elephants schlong for this to work (which there is not on the car as far as I know).�
May 12, 2013
CapitalistOppressor The regulators at CARB have regulations anticipating sub 15 minute charging. They wouldn't have done that unless there were technical studies saying it was possible. That said, I don't recall Tesla ever promising anything other than 30 minute charging with the Model S. Then that turned into 30 minutes for a half charge. In contrast, they always promised battery swapping.
And as Johan said, even if you could do ultra fast charging and not destroy the battery, there are severe physical constraints. Even an elephant schlong connecter needs to get the energy from somewhere. I'm not an electrical engineer, but I suspect that the only places we see that kind of draw on the grid is at large commercial buildings and industrial sites. SuperChargers in the middle of nowhere pulling that kind of juice might be a stretch. Electric Utilities probably would want to charge a lot of money to do it.�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) Hmm.. let's do some math, shall we?
Be t=60s for 85 kWh. That's 85*3.6*10^6 Joule / 60s = 5.1MJ/s = 5.1 megawatts. For 60 seconds. If you wanna see your car explode into a poisonous fireball, I'd recommend this procedure :love: .�
May 12, 2013
brianman Since you guys are keen on the math...
What's the theoretical maximum charging rate (for the 85 kWh, if that matters) if you aren't concerned about "somewhat reasonable" degradation in capacity but don't want it to explode/melt/become-unusable-for-driving? I'm curious how far you have to stretch "fuzzy numbers" on the time to make Elon's quote possibly speak to a charging situation. Thanks.
For argument's sake, let's also assume you're parked literally at the power plant so that issues of distribution of such power across the grid is a non-issue.�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) Usually, 0.8 C to 1.0 C is recommended to get 99.9% of reachable capacity while keeping the Li-Ion packs cool during charge. The announced 120 kW, IIRC, are probably stretching this and indicate over-sized battery pack design. So, to protect the battery, the 85 kWh pack should be around 120 kWh in reality. But that's good engineering practice. 120/85 is about sqrt(2) or 1.412 . Elon is such a nerd�
May 12, 2013
Yggdrasill There are of course other battery chemistries. Lithium Tritanate SCiB allows for charging at 8C, or 90% in 10 minutes.
The energy density is the issue though - replacing the Model S battery pack cells with SCiB would at best allow for a total capacity of around 30 kWh. (Even with such a low capacity, the battery could still be safely charged at 240 kW.)
Maybe Tesla has found some battery chemistry with high energy density and power density, but I doubt it.�
May 12, 2013
Royal TS(LA) That'd be the next generation of cells which will still take some years to go commercial. It also remains to be seen how silicon-air and lithium-air cells with nanostructured electrodes will fare. It can only get dramatically better, capacity and charging speed wise.�
May 12, 2013
stopcrazypp Tesla's strategy has always been high energy density and letting the power scale by size (so a larger capacity pack for more power). An SCiB pack is unlikely what Tesla will pursue. Tesla may be able to "push" the current cells to 1.4C (120kW for 85kWh pack) with some clever tweaks (pulse charging, aggressive battery cooling), but it'll be tough push it significantly higher.�
May 12, 2013
SteveG3 Jeff, read last sentence in paragraph you quoted... covers these situations.�
May 12, 2013
jeff_adams So you think Tesla is going to lease stores, service centers, supercharger locations AND swap locations? So you think it's either/or on superchargers? Because several of the current supercharger locations won't be able to support on site swapping.�
May 12, 2013
CapitalistOppressor I think that every swap location will also have a SuperCharger. The inverse of that statement is not true. It may be that folks who want to ride on the free SuperCharger Superhighway of the future will have to do so without the benefit of Burger King, and will have to do so while watching cars rapidly cycle through the swapper.
Step 1) Upsell
Step 2) PROFIT!!
To be clear, I expect to often use the SuperChargers, because I'm just cheap that way.�
May 12, 2013
SteveG3 Indeed, I think there will be some public rest stop SuperCharger locations that cannot accomodate the space of a SuperSwapper, or relevant state agency is unwilling to make the space available. So out of the 100 core SC locations that allow 150 mile spacing, Tesla may have to put some SuperSwappers as much as a few miles from the public reststop/SC location under a private arrangement just off the highway. I think this will be a minority. The space is quite likely to cost more than SC space in these situations, but I don't see it as a deal breaker. Again, by nature of it's purpose, these locations are in very low density areas... real estate cheap.�
May 12, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Yes, and honestly, if they are going to be building a substantial structure anyways, they could leave room for an eventual quickie mart/mini-fast food franchise for when volumes increase later this decade.�
May 12, 2013
jeff_adams I can see one possible use for battery swapping. What if Tesla developed a "super battery" that had long range but was far too expense to sell for Model S usage? Say 300k for car with this battery in today's value.
Maybe it makes sense to rent this battery out for road trips. Sort of like the redbox model. Enough rentals pays for the battery.�
May 12, 2013
SteveG3 I was thinking they get a good deal because they drive sales to an existing quickie mart, but if there are cases as you suggest, it has the same effect... better economics for Tesla.�
May 12, 2013
DonPedro I told my mom, she thought this was brilliant. For me, that was an important data point.
(She is on the waiting list for a Model S.)�
May 12, 2013
Kaivball You are already assuming that a full battery swap can be performed in 5 minutes or less.
Let the data speak for itself. I don't think it can be done reliably that fast.
I also don't think Tesla wants to invest in this massive infrastructure that is not only capital intensive (tesla factory robots are $500k each) and all the new mechanics needed.
Tesla wants to offer superior customer service. Good people are not cheap. But your average wrench is not going to be Mr congeniality. And you know that just one bad experience will have people pissing and moaning.
There more I think about it I become more convinced that Tesla will NOT invest in this massive endeavor.�
May 12, 2013
Kaivball Jiffy Lubes can't even change your oil in 5 minutes which is far, far simpler.
And the jiffy line type employee is exactly what you would attract.
Barely making minimum wage workers with very low skill levels.
Running 24/7 you have at least 5 two people teams.
This will present a new HR and people management problem they don't have today.
I just doesn't add up.�
May 12, 2013
yobigd20 silly question, but if the inverter can pull out 320kWh in "rpms" when you slam the "go" pedal , why cant you do the opposite? charge at 320kWh? that'd charge the battery in 15 minutes....�
May 12, 2013
stopcrazypp Maximum charging and discharge rates are not symmetrical. Batteries can discharge much faster than they can charge. For example very quick charging batteries like the 6 minute (10C) a123, SCiB, altairnano can be discharged in 2 minutes or less (30+C).
The cells Tesla use have a max charge rate of ~1C (1 hour) and discharge of ~4C (15 minutes). You can push it a bit higher with aggressive cooling, but not very much faster.
The charging and discharge are two different chemical reactions.�
May 12, 2013
brianman Do we know this for a fact for the Model S (or even for the Roadster)?�
May 12, 2013
stopcrazypp Not a fact (we do not know the exact cells used), but similar cells (Panasonic NCR18650A) using the same NCA chemistry have similar ~1C charge rates. Nickel/Cobalt based batteries tend to have worse thermal stability and internal resistance (but great energy density) and those two points mean that they tend to heat up when charged quickly (the current^2 * internal resistance = heat). If Tesla had a way to remove the heat efficiently then they may be able to "push" the max number a bit higher (and there's other tricks like pulse charging), but not anywhere near the best chemistries (which can charge in well under 10 minutes with no tricks).
Batteries chemistries with great charging/discharge rates do not heat up significantly when charged or discharged quickly (like a123, altairnano). That's why people can get away with not even using a battery cooling system when they use those cells (something that's impossible with any of the chemistries Tesla has used so far).�
May 12, 2013
CapitalistOppressor If they get a good deal on an existing space, that would be perfect. Just pointing out that its not required.�
May 12, 2013
hans A car share program like the one already announced in Las Vegas. Forget swapping the battery, just swap the whole car.�
May 12, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Factory robots move on three axis + time with extreme sub millimeter and microsecond precision, and do so while being designed to last through tens of millions of discrete operations. A SuperSwapper would be a rack with rollers that moves up and down on a single axis. When it reached the battery under the Model S it would engage a simple jig to remove the bolts and fittings.
Once the jig was engaged all of the bolts and fittings would be removed simultaneously. The rack would lower itself, leaving the jig in place. When the rack reached the proper level it would roll the battery onto a roller equipped shelf off to either side (and possibly front and back as well). When the battery was on its shelf, a different jig would do whatever hookups are needed (cooling and power most likely) in order to properly charge and maintain the battery.
The rack would move to whatever level it needs to in order to get the swapped battery, roll it onto the rack, and raise back up to the primary jig. When in place, all fittings and bolts would be replaced simultaneously, and then remove the jig and reset itself so that the car could leave.
I am fairly confident I could build a crude device to accomplish this with materials purchased at Home Depot. But for inventory control I'd need to steal one of their scanners since they don't sell them to the public at Home Depot.
Edit: Just to be clear, this is a simple design. There are more advanced ones that would be needed to get to swap speeds of under a minute. My Home Depot version might take 5 minutes.
Edit2: Also, it would be best with the Hope Depot version if the car was in the exact right spot. Otherwise I need to integrate some cheep sensors and hook it all up to a computer, with some simple programming. I also need to adjust the position of the battery at the top, but that might be accomplished with rollers. Certainly for an optimum solution you would want to do some actual engineering on a more sophisticated system.
- - - Updated - - -
I guess if I wanted to be a real cheapskate and avoid buying sensors and moving the battery into position under computer control, I could just instead make sure the car was parked on rollers, then force it (gently) into the correct alignment with a jig.�
May 13, 2013
Yggdrasill It is of course possible to swap a battery in 1 minute, just as it is possible to refuel a car in 1 minute, but it just isn't going to happen.
For one thing, you will have to go out of your way to find a battery swap station, as there will (at best) be hundreds, not 120,000 like there are gas stations. When you arrive at the battery swap station, you might be fortunate enough that there's no line, but you still need to find the correct bay to park in, and park fairly accurately. You also need to roll the window up/down, choose the product you want, validate payment and get a receipt (maybe they chose to integrate most of the operations into the touchscreen, but many people would want a physical receipt - I doubt they have an integrated printer in the touchscreen). Once the battery is swapped, you need to pull away, and rejoin the traffic.
Also, I doubt we are talking about just one minute for a commercial battery swap station. There are a bunch of operations that need to be performed, and big unwieldy 700 lb chunks of metal to move around. I'd guesstimate at 2-3 minutes, and 5-10 minutes total (plus travel time).
When I fill gas, I need to do so about every 400 miles and it doesn't take longer than 5 minutes, unless I have to wait, which is equally possible at a battery swap station. It is after all a fairly simple operation.
1. No travel time, there's a gas station on every corner.
2. Park - 15 seconds
3. Get out, open filler cap - 10 seconds
4. Swipe card, type pin code - 30 seconds
5. Put in the nozzle, fill gas - 2 minutes
6. Return nozzle, close filler cap - 10 seconds
7. Get back in the car, fasten seat belt - 10 seconds
8. Start up the car and drive off - 20 seconds
That works out to about 3 minutes and 35 seconds. I'm usually not in a hurry, so I might take 4-5 minutes.
Edit: Also, what does that mean for regular battery swapping for Tesla? Well, you need to swap the battery approximately every 200 miles, so a battery swap needs to take 1 minute and 47.5 seconds to be as fast as filling gas. Also, there can never be travel time to get to a battery swap station, and there can never be a line.
Even so, I'm not ruling out that the announcement refers to regular battery swapping. Fuzzy math may become a trademark for Tesla.�
May 13, 2013
Royal TS(LA) Maybe the car can be remote controlled (which is probably just a firmware thing), and by means of image processing the car auto-positions on the swapping place. I think CO has it right with using an automated guidance system for "landing" on the swapping place, kind of like for airplanes�
May 13, 2013
Kaivball Like I said, to,allow 24/7 operation, you will need humans as final quality control.
No way that this will be allowed by "robot only".
Our technology is not yet that advanced or stable to have fully automated, operator less battery swapping facilities guaranteeing 100% accuracy and doing the necessary quality and safety checks.
Have you been to the factory?
Tell me, are they doing robotic only battery installation?
Nope.
If they can't even do it in the factory (or don't do it in the factory) then we are still years away of having this kind of automated fantasy in the field.
I do not see Tesla building these Jiffy Lube type businesses around the world. The cost of real estate and low skilled labor to support does not fit into the plan, IMHO, 10k notwithstanding.
I am sure the 10k also stares that if a critical component supplier would ever go belly up overnight that it would shut down production for many months until a suitable replacement is found.
Only because something is in a 10k doesn't mean it will happen or will happen on a large scale.�
May 13, 2013
SteveG3 on another thread I've posted a theory that I think accounts for the likelihood that the announcement is battery swaps, the skepticism about committing to rolling out battery swapping, and the existing and continuing investment in the SuperCharger strategy.
Proof of Tesla's plan for battery swapping - Page 11
be curious to see what you all make of it.�
May 13, 2013
deonb
Ok, but I think we should give Elon the benefit here and not use the most efficient gas station. Let's use the "ARCO" experience instead.
1. first 3 are the same
4. Swipe card... what they don't take cards?? Slowly put card back in wallet while staring at the pump in utter disbelieve. 30 seconds.
5. Go to ATM. Withdraw cash. Do the math in your head about whether the 10c cheaper gas is really worth the $3 ATM fee. 2 minutes.
6. Go up to cashier, wait in line, put down a $60 deposit to unlock the pump. 3 minutes.
7. Put in the nozzle, drip-fill the gas at a painstakingly slow rate that makes you walk around the pump looking for a hand-crank - 5 minutes.
8. Go back to cashier to get $1.35 change. Wait in line again. Give up after 3 minutes and walk away begrudgingly.
9. last 3 are the same
Total time: 15 minutes.
That's the number to beat and still be believable.�
May 13, 2013
napabill Would you people stop it with the battery swapping! So far TM has barely managed to roll-out the National Supercharger grid, much less a National swapping infrastructure. Changing course to swapping makes absolutely no sense at this point, IMHO. Increased SC capability seems likely, but let's get the National grid rolling! I've got places to go, people to see.�
May 13, 2013
brianman You're being generous. I would call it "partial coast Supercharger grid". I count 6 locations in California and 2 on the east coast. Is the official page stale?
Supercharger | Tesla Motors
The superchargers might be real for people that pass through those locations, but for many of us they are still vaporware.�
May 13, 2013
spatterso911 Not trying to be argumentative deonb, but in CA, all ARCO stations I've ever visited use ATM either at the pump or a centrally located terminal and the fee is $0.35, not $3. Usually was always able to get in and out in under 7 minutes with premium unleaded, 15 gallons. Unfortunately I was generally always in a rush when realizing that I had to fill up, so I always noted how long it took to fill up. USA branded gas stations are the same, since they are also rebranded ARCO stations.�
May 13, 2013
SteveG3 Napa, the post I linked is meant to addess this kind of reality check of what they are likely to do.�
May 13, 2013
deonb
I was being facetious - I've only been to an ARCO once and that was my experience. I know that can't actually be the experience for everyone as they would have been out of business by now.
I also see that they have a campaign now (at least in WA state) where ARCO is now taking Credit Cards, but haven't personally tried them since as they don't have much to offer for a Model S
However, I filled in gas at Gare du Nord (downtown Paris) recently, and it was an even worse experience that probably took 20 minutes overall.
So I think 15 minutes is still the high-end of being believable (for whatever it is, which I don't personally think would be battery swapping. Simply doesn't compute with Elon's "throughout the country" and "under your nose" comments).�
May 13, 2013
hershey101 So, the supercharger announcement is this week, does anyone have a guess as to what day? I'm guessing its probably Thursday.
Also, is pt. 5 next week? Do we have any evidence of this?�
May 13, 2013
aronth5 Agree
One item that I have not seen mentioned is either the requirement to have everyone get out of the car so it can be lifted allowing the robot to access the battery. I'm sure there may be alternatives to a lift but I wonder what Tesla's insurance company will feel about servicing the car with people in it? How fun would that be with kids in car seats, or in my case a daughter with a wheel chair! And of course a lounge to wait until the battery is swapped and then get back in.
Or, in the Jiffy Lube model, so everyone can stay in the car, an expensive option to build out enough sub ground space for the robot and space to handle the spare batteries. Feels way too complicated and expensive.�
May 14, 2013
inottawa "Supercharger announcement pushed to next week. Something else this week."�
May 14, 2013
FredTMC so what is the announcement THIS week going to be?! For example, maybe it's 5th announcement or maybe it's not part of the trilogy of 5 announcements.
Thoughts?�
May 14, 2013
cdabel The rampant speculation may have changed the order of the announcements. But I'm just speculating....�
May 14, 2013
deonb
Welll... since you asked. I always thought that the SuperCharger announcement and the "way to recharge faster than a gas station" announcement didn't make sense in the order in which they were planned.
Otherwise analysts would pepper him about the recharge announcement during the SuperCharger announcement.
This way around makes more sense.�
May 14, 2013
DonPedro Opportunistic capital raise?�
May 14, 2013
deonb Making a tweet which can be foreseen to raise the stock price, followed by an offering?
Big SEC violation. Not that they would do anything about it...�
May 14, 2013
jeff_adams There is no way he could get in trouble for that tweet. Stock price could have gone down just as easily as up.�
May 14, 2013
vgrinshpun This week's announcement bumped SC announcement to the next week because it is linked with a real time event:
Upcoming Announcements - Page 2�
May 14, 2013
aronth5 No longer a concern
SEC Says Social Media OK for Company Announcements if Investors Are Alerted
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2013/2013-51.htm
SEC Says �Yes� to Corporate Tweets
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2013/04/sec-says-yes-to-company-social-media-news/�
May 15, 2013
aviators99 Actually, if you look at what the trip computer does during regen, it's *enormously* efficient...but I'm fairly certain that the trip computer is broken in this regard.�
May 15, 2013
ksdprasad my guess is "tethering one model S to another Model S for Juice exchange" as a demo.�
May 15, 2013
hans I would rather see a V2G demo with the Model S tethered to a house as an emergency power source.�
May 21, 2013
ksdprasad another guess might be "A range extender". Adding water(distilled) in a tank which was placed in frunk/trunk and show how that increases charge/range in dashboard(thru metal-air battery) in minutes.�
May 21, 2013
yobigd20 that would be my guess too based on this patent Tesla Motors filed http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20130015823.pdf
�
May 31, 2013
ZestyChicken Can you explain this a little more? I am utterly baffled by what you are talking about...�
May 31, 2013
jerry33 Basically, it's a non-user rechargeable battery (or set of battery modules for ease of installation) that will fit in the square opening of the frunk. When you need more range than the normal battery can give, the modules (delivered by UPS) can be hot plugged and will add an extra 100 (or more) miles. After you drain the battery, you send it back.�
May 31, 2013
deonb Why UPS as opposed to say picking them up at Chevron? Or how you get Blue Rhino Propane today?�
May 31, 2013
jerry33 UPS delivers to your home, Chevron doesn't. Also because batteries lose charge over time, how long has that battery been sitting at the Chevron station?
I should mention I've never purchased propane as I don't do any welding.�
May 31, 2013
wstuff SORRY I can't read all 59 pages of this thread and I am sure this has been mentioned but my bet is something to do with voice command, can't think what as sound and nav respond, but improved or extended system voice control would be pretty cool and thats right under your NOSE.�
May 31, 2013
DriverOne It might be as simple as the frunk cooler, you know, for food for your mouth. Lame�
May 31, 2013
deonb See the following post.
It's a 1 page summary of all of the hints from Elon & co. to date regarding this:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17416-June-20th-Speculation/page4?p=353044#post353044
I'm not sure you can make a case for voice command given those, but go for it
- - - Updated - - -
Except that when you're on a road trip, where you'd need the charge, you're not going to be home...
I don't believe the Al-Air reaction start until you add water to it.�
May 31, 2013
wstuff Thanks Deonb.�
May 31, 2013
NigelM Tesla has developed the cooler drawer to fit in there (see various threads); I very much doubt they developed two ideas to fit in the same space.
P.S. I've seen a Model S completely opened up and there's no existing connections for anything remotely resembling a frunk battery.�
May 31, 2013
deonb
There are also no quick release clips for the Li-Ion battery, nor wiring to charge at improved rate.
I actually tested this morning whether the right-hand-side light would maybe open for a second charge port, and it's maybe just software limited to left-side right now. Alas, there is no magnet behind it like there is on the left.�
May 31, 2013
austinEV Concerning "under your nose" and such, I had an odd conversation with the staff at my local showroom. They had a new model S chassis in, which I had never seen before so I studied it quite a bit, asking what each mechanical thing did (it had the compressor, pneumatic thing for the air suspension etc. Right behind the front axle is an aluminum case with Tesla stamped into it. It is made of fairly lightweight Al, and appeared to have a simple catch holding it in place. I asked what IT was and the guy said it was for holding "extra batteries". My ears picked right up, wondering if he was ill informed or saying something he shouldn't have. He said that for a 60kWh it was empty, but for the 85kWh it was full of extra battery modules. He said that a 60kWh had 14 battery modules and an 85kWh had 16, so for the 85 the 2 extra that "couldn't fit" in the floor area went there. There are tons of things wrong with this statement, so I know its bad info (for one thing the math doesn't work: 14/16 is not close to 60/85. For another, that little box was clearly not a part of the cooling/heating system. A third is that the space is far too small for that many LiIon batteries)
Looking at google images it appears that that little box might just correspond to a little raised area on the front of the battery pack, where cooling and/or power connections go. So it might be a location of a heat exchanger or something mundane like that. But I had to put on my tinfoil conspiracy hat for a second. Either he is really badly informed, or messed up a cover story
Picture here, if I can get it to work:
�
Jun 1, 2013
deonb
From:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/16417-What-s-hiding-under-the-Frunk
The description is:
1. At the very top, the grey ribbed area is part of the battery pack, a taller part than the rest of it, containing the brains of the battery.
Of course, that might be wrong if they were trying to conceal what it is. Do you know what made the mechanic think it was empty on 60kWh?�
Jun 1, 2013
austinEV He was a sales guy not a mechanic. I don't know why he volunteered that long, detailed, very wrong explanation. I totally believe that its just a cover for the raised part, and the control electronics are in the raised part of the battery under there. Tinfoil hat off....�
Jun 3, 2013
ZestyChicken huh...non-rechargeable batteries in an EV. I don't really want that though I guess there could be some limited situations...nah just drive the wife's gasser.�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét