Thứ Ba, 22 tháng 11, 2016

Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday) part 2

  • Mar 31, 2013
    sp4rk
    I've not walked into one of those grease pits in decades. There's 2 of us! :)
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    4sevens.com
    I've got dibs one some retail food or hotel chain that signed up with tesla to offer supercharging. The retail outfit already has the location and signing a contract with them will help deploy chargers everywhere starting with the critical locations needed to enable intercity and coast to coast travel. This would be a win-win situation. Tesla wins because of quicker and possibly cheaper deployment of SC network. The Retail outfit wins because it'll draw all Tesla customers there and bring more "high end" business to them. What are you going to do when charging 15-60 minutes anyways? It would be too crazy imagine mcd's... by maybe cracker barrel? (but isn't that east coast only?). Walmart? Target? National gas station brand? Whatever it is it needs to be national and most stores situated near interstate exits. I really hope they're thinking what I'm thinking...

    Guys did you know where MOST of the internet is routed through? I've heard it's routed through railroad properties... it's existing "infrastructure." Reusing it to deploy modern tech needs makes sense. Likewise Tesla doesn't need to go trying to buy land for themselves to put charge stations - just strike a deal with existing locations :)
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    Larry Chanin
    Elon likes to tweet. He knows, as in this case, the positive expectations surrounding his teasing tweets sometimes boosts the stock price.

    When Broder issued his infamous article Elon tweeted. His followup was merely a blog post followed by another tweet. Most Tesla communications are blogs or website updates. Only a few communications are worthy of an event. Currently Tesla is counting its pennies, an expensive event may have to wait a bit. TESLIVE?

    Larry
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    woof
    I'm not sure about "MOST of the internet", but there is a bunch of fiber that was installed along the Southern Pacific Railway rights of way by SPRINT, which is an acronym for Southern Pacific Railroad Internal Network Telecommunications.

    Sprint Nextel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    jkirkebo
    Nope. The HPWC can be installed on the following circuits and will yield the following charge rates:

    100A->80A (for twin chargers, othwerwise 40A)
    90A->72A (for twin chargers, othwerwise 40A)
    80A->64A (for twin chargers, othwerwise 40A)
    70A->56A (for twin chargers, othwerwise 40A)
    60A->48A (for twin chargers, othwerwise 40A)
    50A->40A
    40A->32A

    The charge rate is set by dip switches inside the unit. As you can see, 70A is not amongst the possible charge rates at all.
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    JohnQ
    It requires a twin charger to get the full charge rate, one can always charge at 40A without the twin charger option. But there's really no need for that much current at an overnight destination, 40A is sufficient. Plus, using a standard, J1772 connector is more attractive for a public hotel chain since it won't be limited to one vehicle type. Roadster, Model S, Volt, Leaf (if they can make it) customers would all benefit.

    Anyway, it's tough to say what the announcement would be and, like the other guesses, this is pure speculation. After 28 pages here it will be tough for Tesla/Elon to match the hype.

    EDIT: Sorry, jkirkebo, missed your post there.
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    vfx
    Would be fascinating to see the Fisker hybrid sales compared to the Bob Lutz Gas powered version sales against a Tesla drivetrain'd Karma.
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    Larry Chanin
    Here's another angle.

    Can You Guess Tesla�s Big Mystery Announcement? (AAA Might Have The Answer)

    Larry
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    JRP3
    No, not exciting, and sends the wrong message about Tesla vehicles.
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    Babylonfive
    Absolutely agree.
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    aronth5
    After all the posts this seems to most logical along with Tesla increasing the pace of the supercharger network. It seems odd how little activity there has been expanding the supercharger network. Lots of talk but no action. Why? There have been hints of improved Supercharging technology so I'm betting they have been holding back until it is finally ready. So now would be a perfect time for:
    1. Elon exercises his share of Tesla Stock
    2. Improved Supercharger technology announcement
    3. Elon's helps to fund the actual expansion with expansion finally more than talk.
    And one that hasn't been mentioned support for the Panasonic NCR18650B 3400mah Batteries for the MX. (probably the least likely though)
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    KD5MDK
    McDonalds has actually really improved their act over the last few years. I don't go there, but the health options are a ton better than in many comparable places. The problem with any fast food partnership is that you're supposed to be in and out really fast - no time to charge, and they depend on the quick turnover to make up their volume. If you buy $10 worth of food there and then occupy a parking space for an hour, that's a significant loss to them during a rush period like breakfast or lunch compared to the number of times they could have had a customer use that space.

    I agree that a hotel agreement would be a big deal.
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    vfx
  • Mar 31, 2013
    ohaq
    Tesla model s sales exceed target: 40 kwh battery cancelled

    http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/tesla-model-s-sales-exceed-target

    I hope this is not an aprils fools joke. Elon tweeted this on April 1st.

    Update: I replied to the tweet and Elon said, "To be clear, Tesla is in California, so it is not April Fool's yet! Also, some may differ, but imo the Tues news is arguably more important"
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  • Mar 31, 2013
    BenTesla
    Oh.my.god!! I was starting to think this is going to be one of those times when you get all exited and then he announces something that would have been awesome (like some stock related stuffs) but we spent all this time talking about it and we get our hopes up. I guess this seals it!! IT'S GOING TO BE AWESOME!!

    FYI: I don't think I've read anyone mention it in the thread but what are the possibilities of him announcing a bigger battery option above 85 kwh or an AWD option? I eliminated these earlier because of the Model X delay but this makes me think it has to be pretty big for Elon to continue to hype it up like this.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    jdevo2004
    Elon is going to pay back the entire Federal loan personally for a larger stake in Tesla Motors.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Laumb
    All 85kwh cars Are actually 105kwh, and all owners get a free upgrade?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    twinklejet
    PLEASE ANNOUNCE WIRELESS (PROXIMITY) CHARGING!!!! (Like how you put a powermat compatible phone on top of a powermat or a table/surface with powermat embedded inside, and the phone just starts charging!)

    I hope he announces that the wire connection is no longer necessary cos' he's gonna put the charging loop under each parking spot at the supercharger so you can just drive right up and the car starts charging straight away until you pull out of the lot! You don't even have to get out of the car and you can see the miles increasing automagically!

    And then, a retrofit kit for garages to install this wireless proximity charging loop right under your garage so no more having to pop open the cap to charge your tesla!

    *cross fingers*
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    A thought

    People have suggested that a possibility is that Musk is going to take up his options and invest more.

    But, if he has "cheap" options, then taking them would just be him making out like a bandit. What if instead the big announcement is that he's NOT going to take up his options and instead is going to WAIVE them?

    Since they're already on the books, Tesla could instead sell them in a public offering, get more money and use it to pay down the DoE loan. That both reduces the debt interest burden and help rid Tesla of the "picking winners" political albatross. Just using the capital to reduce debt while there's a profit instead of covering operating expenses also avoids implications of weakness since it's not hiding losses.

    Musk would still be investing by virtue of turning down free money but this way the IRS wouldn't be getting a large cut.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    K Hall
    The stock is up + $5.10 in premarket! Katie bar the door.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    aznt1217
    So... The amended numbers, exceeding production, upgrade/options changes, and all that was just announced Isn't what tomorrow is about? That's bananas.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Zzzz...
    Tesla reveals Model S with 110+kWh battery pack option?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    JRP3
    Nope. Plugging in is too easy, cost effective, and more efficient.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    AnOutsider
    Agreed. While wireless would be cool, plugging in is so simple it's automatic for me at this point. Should they have that ability down the line though, I'd be all over it. My wife would never forget to plug in the X while juggling the baby
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    JRP3
    Sure, I expect it to be an option at some point. Just not the announcement that Elon is talking about. Actually you can get wireless charging already from a third party but limited to 6kW I think.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    However, wireless has the advantage of avoiding cables.
    - Less concern about cable theft, vandalism or damage.
    - Could be used at bus stops and taxi ranks where vehicles wait in a spot for indeterminate amounts of time.
    - Space-efficient: by burying the charger you don't have to leave charger room by parking spaces. All negotiation and set-up could be done in the car.
    - The device would be placed in the middle of the parking space so it would encourages better parking. :D

    But another disadvantage is that without a cable it's strictly the car in the spot that gets charged.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    viperboy
    Is there an official time / livestream for this announcement tomorrow? Hope so, but if not, I'll just follow this thread.

    As for wireless charging, if you could get enough amperage, you could either:
    1) Line the first 30 feet at a stoplight, so while you're stopped you get free energy
    2) Line the HOV lanes in Cali with strips several hundred / thousand feet in length. If done correctly, you'd never have to recharge. (Not sure about the technical challenges about this one)
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ckessel
    Tesla is just too small. There's no way the announcement is going to be something that'd require massive government involvement across a multitude of states (which is what road changes would require).

    Charging while driving is never going to happen. At least not in our lifetimes.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    sp4rk
    Very interesting comment. I would look at it, though, differently. Outside the stoplight. Or, outside the box.
    Stop lights are inherently inefficient.
    In the USA I get so fed up with stopping and starting! At every bl00dy stop sign. Stop light.
    In contrast, in Europe, so many "stops" are roundabouts instead. Far more efficient! Far less wear on the brakes. Far less gas consumed accelerating. Ergo, far less electricity used.
    So, let's ban stop signs and install roundabouts! :)
    Considering how much a set of stop lights cost vs. a mini-roundabout?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    AnOutsider
    I lived in Central NJ for a while. There was a circle where route 202, 206 and a couple others met up and you'd swear the world just ended at that point. So many people couldn't wrap their heads around how to navigate this incredible geometric oddity and the fact that it had 2-3 lanes depending on which part of the circle you were in just blew minds. Can't see it happening.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Larry Chanin
    Teaming up with a major car manufacturer, such as Daimler, to accelarate expansion and share the Supercharger network would be a big deal. However, it won't start with the B-Class EVs. They only have 28 kWh batteries. Before Tesla cancelled the 40 kWh Model S they had determined it too small to be practical for Supercharging. They are not likely to permit a smaller Mercedes to use the network if they've ruled out entry-level Model S reservation holders.

    Larry
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    DriverOne
    My speculation is that Elon will invest in some sort of eatery (e.g. Starbucks) who will then commit to Supercharger installation cross-country.

    Food's where your mouth is at, after all.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    sp4rk
    You'd have had to have grown up with them. Took my driving test on them. And stick shift. Er, manual transmission.
    However, have to ask ... technically, was it a roundabout or a circle?
    Circles ... right of way for those approaching, roundabouts the opposite.
    And I understand how people might get confused.
    In some places in the UK, they terrify me ... for example in High Wycombe, they have 5 (4?) roundabouts in one. Four perimeter ones, one big one. And you see the whole thing when approaching from a hill from the exit from the M40.
    After 3 or 4 goes I got used to it. But I understand your "world just ended" comment!
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Volker.Berlin
    I hope you�re wrong.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ckessel
    Me too, but given the bureaucracy involved I just can't see it. We can't get funds allocated to rebuild crumbling bridges (well, in the US), I just don't see making roads into EV chargers happening. The scope is way beyond what Tesla could finance. Just doing one town would exceed the entire supercharger budget.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    For Americans (and other aliens) the technical term for what he has just described is a "Magic Roundabout", named after a very popular children's (and, let's be honest here, adult's) TV series. It's so called because for people familiar with them, they work extremely well as they help divide flows of traffic while those unfamiliar watching the flow can only believe that magic makes it work.

    In Maine's capital city, Augusta, there is a roundabout and a rotary! (Gasp). A smaller roundabout was re-designed into a rotary and it's much better than it was, as long as everybody knows where they're going and gets into the correct lane before they enter. Occasionally somebody unfamiliar does an unnecessary lane switch but otherwise it flows pretty well.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think it's unrealistic because wireless charge-on-de-move (ho ho) would be expensive to install and involve large energy losses. I think it's more realistic to hope for improvements in charging rates and ubiquity in highway rest area parking lots (with expanded rest area business).
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Joyrider
    I am sorry but I just have to take issue with this statement. I agree that McDonalds is large. I agree that they are fast. But I can't stomach the word food and McDonalds in the same sentence. :biggrin:
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Morristhecat
    Elon did promise a $50k model s. Now that they nixed the 40kw battery, the 60Kw will be repriced to $50k, and we will all get a nice refund. :)
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    doug
    I went through the options listed in the wiki and have added a poll to the thread. You guys have today to vote on the option you think is most likely. :)
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    JRP3

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  • Apr 1, 2013
    mcornwell
    TEG has a source who says they work for Tesla, and the announcement is that all Model S's already have the Magic Sky window technology, and that it just has to be enabled in the software.

    While I would love this, I'm doubtful, as it doesn't really jive with the "money where my mouth is" comment.

    Edit: OK, looks like like this one is an Aprils Fools joke! :)
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    vfx
    I'm guessing when Elon tweeted last week there was a mad scramble at Tesla.

    First they had to move the date for SEC concerns. Then it gets moved to the day after April fools (was that luck or did they catch that?)

    Then Tesla had the profitable announcement and "Easter Egg" and the 40 drop that they had to work to put out on a Sunday Holiday so THAT did not fall on April 1st or Elon's tweet day.

    I bet it's been a long week for them.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    BenTesla
    I still think it'll be supercharger related. Anyone know if there is an exact time for this?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    WarpedOne
    How is supercharger thing bigger than no-40-kWh model?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    SoCalGuy
    My guess is that Elon buys equity to repay DOE loan.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    AnOutsider
    Announce that on Friday 20 new superchargers will go live across the nation. Not only is it bigger, but it also makes the news better for the 40kwh folks as they also now have access to this network (with the upgrade).
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Clprenz
    Y'all don't understand, after following Elon for this long, this is either Some new huge technology or Gen3, Superchargers could be part of it, but I would bet that Superchargers are not the focal point of Elon's Big Announcement. This is going in the history books, Just like that fact that A new american car compnay just went Profitable!!!! Strap in Boys, Today is a Huge for Tesla, Tomorrow will be REALLY HUGE!
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    WarpedOne
    Wasn't that exactly the plan from the start?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    avatar
    Hi Gang - does anyone here know how much of the DOE loan is currently outstanding? I don't think Elon has $100million in liquid cash just sitting around.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Owner
    By bet is a payback of the DOE loan, because it was dependent up the 40KWh loan.:wink:
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Grendal
    Not even on the list but announced today is that the 40 kWh pack people get a free upgrade to the 60 kWh pack. That's a huge announcement and putting money where his mouth is. It's more Tesla's money though. But considering how much of the company he owns it will feel that way.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
    I have to disagree. This is going to be something from Business Elon, not Engineer Elon.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    BenTesla
    That wouldn't make sense. They just said they're not doing that.

    I might not know what it will be but a lot of the suggestions people are making are for things that wouldn't make sense. For example, Announcing the Gen. 3? Why? The other announcements have been huge events and this one is announced on twitter? Plus why delay the Model X and the launch the Gen. 3? Would make no sense
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
    If he exercises his options he'll raise $45M for Tesla. If he turns around and sells those options on the open market, he can raise something like $250M. That gives them a combined ~$300M which would get them close I think.

    But for me, I have to ask, "Why?" The loan terms are favorable and they recently negotiated a plan to pay it down in half the time anyway. Tesla can do much more valuable things with $300M than pay the DOE loan down. My vote is for "other". I just don't know what he has planned, but nothing I've seen so far in this thread makes a ton of sense.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Zythryn
    Elon noted that some might find today's news bigger, but he thinks tomorrow's is bigger.
    However, if they rolled out 50 superchargers in the next 30 days, I would count that as a LOT bigger news. 4% of the orders vs speeding adoption of the Model S? No question in my mind that supercharger news could be much bigger.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    avatar

    I agree. perhaps instead of selling them on the open market, he will turn around and sell them to an investor for a small premium on the market price? Somebody like Warren Buffet? That will give Tesla a massive cash injection without a need to raise anymore capital.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Robert.Boston
    ^^This.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    mitch672
    If they've reached 10,000 Model S, he could do something surprising, such as state "I met the goals set for me by the Tesla board of directors", "but I am am going to turn the awarded shares back over to Tesla Motors, who will sell them on the open market and raise several hundred million dollars, this will be used to more quickly deploy the SC network and also to jump start Gen 3 development". Most CEOs wouldn't even think about giving up hundreds of millions of $, Elon is not like other CEOs, the man has a mission!
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    sp4rk
    Having seeing that video ... it would be nice of Tesla to make a convertible.
    Draw back?
    How many Model S's and X's would be available used?
    Oh, they already made one ... the Roadster?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ElSupreme
    I think the news is paying off the DOE loan. But I don't think paying off that loan is particularly a good idea. I think Tesla should sit on their cash, or use it to expand. Paying off a fairly favorable loan seems like a poor decision. There is a reason why I don't pay my mortgage off faster than I need too. My loan is very good, and I get more utility out of having cash on hand, like buying a Tesla.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ckessel
    How many options does Elon have to exercise? Of the 10 tranches he gets noted in the 6/30/2012 10-Q, each is only .5% of the total shares and the market cap isn't high enough to trigger any of them yet. Elon has lots of money, but unless he's completely cashing out of Solar City or some such, I thought it's mostly tied up in his companies.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
    I made this mistake too. The options in question are a batch he got in 2009: 6.7M shares at $6.63.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    viperboy
    This seems like a logical "if one then two" and would be huge for the company, but by my recollections, Tesla delivered VIN ~7000 recently. If they are done with 10k, then they're done building 1.5 months worth of deliveries. I would typically disagree that someone would turn down 50+ million bucks, but Elon did reinvest everything he made from the paypal sale into new companies.

    - - - Updated - - -

    this would be close to a quarter billion, right? (someone check my math?)
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    napabill
    Going to modify my original guess. Expansion of the Supercharger network through some form of commercialization of it. Could be a combination of joint ventures (Marriott, Hyatt, Cracker Barrel) and private licensing. And Elon would obtain the first individual license for a private Supercharger station.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    jvonbokel
    I think it will be a combination of the options listed in the poll. Announcement of 10,000th* Model S, completing the vesting of of Elon's options from 2009, which he will then exercise, resulting in a $44M cash injection into Tesla. Then the last step - what does Tesla do with the money - will either be an acceleration/expansion of the Supercharger network or "other", as in something nobody here has yet predicted.

    *Do Canadian cars have a separate VIN sequence, by any chance?

    I think you left out the decimal in the quantity: 6.7 (million) * $6.63 = $44.421 (million)
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
    Tesla: 6.7M * $6.63 = ~$44.4M
    Elon: (~$44 - $6.63) * 6.7M = $250M (a quarter billion)
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    gaswalla
    When is the announcement tomorrow?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    jvonbokel
    Ahh, I get it now. That doesn't make any sense to me though. I don't know why someone would say they are putting their money where they're mouth is and then cash out a bunch of stock options. Plus, if he teased an announcement on Twitter (thus raising the share price) and then sold a large quantity of shares, I think the SEC would flip out.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    But if he sells them he pays tax on them. Not efficient. If he adds money he dilutes shareholdings. That's why I prefer the idea of waiving the options as "v big way". He wouldn't actually be putting more money in, unless he bought at the public offering, but he would be taking a bath by turning the options down.

    Albatross! Albatross! Albatross!

    Because waiving so Tesla can pay off the DoE loan says:
    - We are strong, we can survive without government favoritism.
    - I am a really awesome guy.
    (- More cynical: we don't have any burdensome conditions from the DoE so now we can manufacture future cars cheaper in China.)

    Using the money for vehicle development costs is just saying that the model's not working and shows weakness, but covering "start-up" costs is OK. So other than the loan, I can only think of the Supercharger network as a one-time cost the market would forgive.

    If it's not either of those, I either don't have a clue or will be rather disappointed.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    mitch672
    It would if he's giving all of the stock back to the Tesla treasury, how many CEOs "give" back 250 million+ to their companies?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    avatar
    Hopefully before the market opens. I don't want it to be after the market closes. I'd like to the price impact to be know sooner rather than later.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    vfx
    Do you not think that we would have found a few of those by now?
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Doug_G
    For General Production, I don't think so because the early Production Canadian VIN numbers were in the 6000 range.

    The Canadian Sigs VINs started at 2000, so they seem to have been segregated. They were after all built after all the US Sigs were done (and some US General Production).
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    PopSmith
    Elon tweeted "First profitable Q for Tesla" (both GAAP and non-GAAP according to the blog) but then ten minutes later tweeted "imo the Tues news is arguably more important.". If the announcement tomorrow is more important than profitability I really wonder if it concerns Gen 3. As I previously stated, though, the delay of Model X is causing my hopes of Gen 3 news or reveal to be slim-to-none.

    While the repayment of the AVTM loan would be huge, Tesla has already said they plan to repay it by 2017. I don't think a repayment via Elon's cash would be a smart business move at this time. A major expansion of the Supercharger stations would be awesome but I wouldn't qualify that as "arguably more important" than profitability given Tesla's previous roadmaps.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Clprenz
    Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) will hold a conference call on April 2, 2013 at 2:00pm Pacific Standard Time (5:00pm Eastern Standard Time) for media, analysts and investors to make an announcement. Following remarks from Elon Musk, Tesla Motors co-founder and CEO, media and analysts are invited to participate in a question and answer session.
    What: Tesla Motors, Inc. Announcement When: Tuesday, April 2, 2013
    Time: 2:00pm Pacific Standard Time / 5:00pm Eastern Standard Time
    Press Release Will Be Available At: Press Center | Tesla Motors
    Webcast: ir.teslamotors.com (live and replay) Live Call: (877) 312-5519 / (760) 666-3771 (International)
    Approximately two hours after the call, a digital recording of the Q&A session will be available for a period of two weeks following the date of the call. To access the recording, please dial in to one of the following numbers using the conference ID shown.
    Replay Dial-In #: (855) 859-2056 Conference ID#: 31702733
    International Replay Dial-In #: (404) 537-3406 Conference ID# 31702733
    The webcast will also be archived on the Company's website for a period of one year following the date of the call.


    I am sad to say guys, this seems to a financial, based off the fact that there is no live stream
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Doug_G
    What do you mean? The announcement says:

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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Arnold Panz
    This seems to me to be the most likely scenario, something related to Gen 3. The only inconsistency with that theory is that very recently (I think in his TED talk interview) Elon stated that it would 3-4 years before they got Gen 3 on the road (which probably means closer to 4-5 years based on past predictions of when cars would roll out). I'd love for them to move that up, but given that they moved Model X back a year to focus on the S, it seems inconsistent that they'd do a big push to get Gen 3 on the road much sooner than anticipated.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    adiggs
    I'm going with a combo expansion of the supercharger network / sc technology, along with a deep pocketed finance source for building out the network at a dramatically faster and more aggressive pace. As long as I'm guessing wildly, I'm going with some kind of partnership with Solar City who is already good at raising large amounts of money, in order to capitalize something now and generate a long term income stream. I don't know how they're going to monetize the free network, but the best I can guess is that some chunk of SC revenue for each car goes to the deep pockets in exchange for them capitalizing the buildout investment now. And Solar City seems like the most trustworthy choice to build a mutually beneficial relationship with.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    doug
    Agree and agree. More superchargers doesn't feel like a big enough deal given what Tesla has already said. Paying off the loans would be big news, though largely symbolic. It does seem silly to pay off low cost money. I felt the same way about the accelerated pay back. Is Ford or Nissan doing similar? For some reason they don't get put under the same microscope. It would be nice, however, to silence those critics. Given that Fisker is about to go Solyndra on their loan, would be great to preempt those who will try to say "Tesla is next."
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Clprenz
    It is a conference call, Tesla always calls it a webcast. I am now betting on battery technology, or acquiring a new business. also they will release new supercharging locations. No new car, but he could talk about upgrading all cars battery technology from say April 1 forward
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    vfx
    And interestingly the Superchargers have historically had underwhelming response. We EV drivers love them but ICE drivers have a hard time realizing that driving free, on the sun, forever is completely awesome.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    sp4rk
    You don't think another Easter egg?
    What if all 85kwh battery cars already shipped are actually 100kwh ones and they too are being software restricted?
    But if so, you'd have expected it to have been announced this morning already.
    Ok, I got excited for a moment there.
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    BenTesla
    With this not being an event, I think it has to be financial, battery tech or supercharger. I really want to think that it's going to be Supercharger but I think Battery tech fits the needed size but I don't know how Elon would be putting his money where his mouth is with that.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
    Have we ruled out a battery swapping scheme? I just can't let his comments from that investor meeting go... He sounded like he had something specific in mind.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Bardlebee
  • Apr 1, 2013
    erha
    I think he once mentioned if it would be hard to put up his own aluminium factory. Highly unlikely, but maybe Tesla wants to produce it's own aluminium and power the production with solar power from solarcity?
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
    He did joke about that once. I can't see that as being at all doable, and he certainly doesn't have the time to take on another company.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    vetboy45
    What about an advertising campaign? The most common question I get about the car is what is it. When I tell them it's a Tesla, they always ask who makes it.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    RubberToe
    Say the Model X was delayed because it is essentially a follow-up (battery and production wise) to the Model S. They know how much money they are going to make on them once they are produced. Maybe Tesla has found a battery solution to the Gen III vehicle that will allow for moving up the mass production date for that vehicle, especially if he knows they can mass produce it at a profit, and get many more electric cars on the road. Thats Elon's ultimate plan.

    With more car companies (BMW i3) getting in to the electric car business, Tesla needs to stay at the forefront. I'm hoping it's for Gen III production starting sooner than anticipated, paid for by Elon kicking in the cash to build out the Fremont plant (money where his mouth is). The thing is though, if they had access to battery technology that would make the Gen III vehicle a real game changer (price/range), the general public would almost certainly have found out about it by now. Maybe couple that with a supercharger build out. Very much looking forward to the call.

    RT
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Norbert
    A conference call with Q&A session. This means it must be a rather big thing. Since Superchargers have already been announced and received a lot of press, I don't think it would simply be an accelerated installation of them. How many questions would there be to ask about that?

    The official Gen3 announcement would fit this bill, something everyone will have lots of questions about.

    The removal of the 40 kWh battery option made me wonder whether they would add a larger option on top, using a new battery cell. But it seems a bit early for this, and also, this wouldn't seem to invite that many questions.

    A new alliance with a larger company might be a big thing, however it doesn't seem to fit in my current picture of how things are going to develop. I see Tesla as continuing to stand very much on its own feet, innovating from a fresh start.

    What else could be big enough for a conference call with Q&A session?
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    CapitalistOppressor
    From their press release -

    - - - Updated - - -

    Someone made a comment that the Federal loan is partly based on the requirement to produce the 40kWh version of the car. Trying to research this, but does anyone know if this is the case or not?
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Bardlebee
    Whenever I ask myself what the call will be about. I am reminded of the phrase "Money where my mouth is"....

    I don't think Elon has said anything about Gen3 recently so I don't think it is that, I also don't think he could magically spend money to make the car cheaper for the masses. Part of the reason for the Gen3 being so far away is because of the adoption of EV's need to happen gardually over time, thus bringing down the price of the product.

    I also don't think he would have a call to simply pay off the loan. Why wouldn't he just tweet "Oh hey guys, totally going to pay this off now"...

    The only other reason I could think he would want a huge event for the loan, would be to get all the bad press off Tesla's back for once. Though this thought also has a counter argument, really the press will ALWAYS blame Tesla for taking a loan from the government, even when its gone. The press is swayed, not by information and truth, but for leaning towards opinions and party lines. No doubt today's news of no 40kwh anymore will have headlines drum up "The super rich can only afford this car" and "Look, the rich are making the barrier to this car even HIGHER!"

    Just my two cents. I am so baffled as to what could be "better news" then today, because I am amazed about today's news.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    CapitalistOppressor
    Paying off the loan doesn't make sense to me either. Wading through DOE loan covenants to see if the 40kWh model was part of the project milestones that needed to be satisfied.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Beavis
    I voted for "other" because I didn't think tomorrow's announcement would be a big deal but now I wonder what they are going to do with the money they saved on the 40kWh R&D, testing and development. Does anyone know if the announcement will be made by blog, tweet, or press release? Or what time?

    Edit: I see the tweet now. Webcast or conference call at 2 PST.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Krugerrand
    Scroll up. Information is there.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    napabill
    Would seem the where and when of an accelerated Supercharger network would be fodder. Still believe it will be joint ventured.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Majerus
    I think most ICE drivers believe that the supercharger network will be free until there are enough cars on the road, at which point Tesla will start charging a fee in order to charge. Or at least this has been stated by a few people when I explained the superchargers to them... I am really pulling for the gen3 announcement even though really do not think it will happen..
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    hj-45
    I voted Gen III. I think that cancelling the 40kw Model S and delaying the Model X has left a lot of people free to work on Gen III. This would be the last item to be completed on Elon's 2006 secret plan blog.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Citizen-T
    To add fuel to the loan payoff argument: reports are that Tesla has renegotiated the warrants on the loan such that they don't need to be counted as liabilities anymore. Why were they having negotiations? And how did they end in the DOE giving up its warrants?

    Still trying to figure out if the DOE loan is tied to production of the 40kwh version of the car. This sounds familiar, but I can't find any definitely source to confirm.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Norbert
    Quite a long time ago, I mentioned, in a discussion here, the *possibility* that the loan *might* be conditioned on the base price being $50k (after tax credit). I don't know if that might be what you refer to, though.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    aronth5
    Agree and the conference call information would tend to support this.

    PALO ALTO, Calif.-- Tesla Motors, Inc. will hold a conference call on April 2, 2013 at 2:00pm Pacific Standard Time (5:00pm Eastern Standard Time) for media, analysts and investors to make an announcement. Following remarks from Elon Musk, Tesla Motors co-founder and CEO, media and analysts are invited to participate in a question and answer session.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Nh1
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Arnold Panz
    Whoa! That fits the bill if he announces swappable battery packs coming online soon! That could be more impactful than today's announcement and would be putting money where his mouth is (EVs being superior to ICEs and just as practical). I'm betting o. This now based on that tweet.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Bardlebee
    Yes, but is this doable? Would the change out of the battery be automated? What if this automation breaks? How would they afford to service the batteries? What if you got left with defective batteries post-swap?

    I don't know, I would be worried about swapping batteries when taking long trips.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    vfx
  • Apr 1, 2013
    JRP3
    I'd be disappointed if it's just battery swapping, especially with the ongoing failure of the swapping poster child, Better Place.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    I can only see battery swapping in the specific context of fleets of taxis or rental cars.

    In any case, Mr Musk is just teasing at this point.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    SteveG3
    Though I've had doubts about battery swapping fitting their plan beyond some niche circumstances, it is interesting that today they announced 40 kwh no longer will be available. I.E., what if cars will be able to swap batteries for trips... they may have sought to avoid a shift in demand to the less profitable 40 kwh by closing it off as an option today.

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  • Apr 1, 2013
    xtothem
    It is quite entertaining how he gets so excited and cannot keep from tweeting. Gotta love the passion!

    I'm guessing he will sell his options on the open market and used funds generated to completely accelerate the deployment of automated battery swap stations in conjunction with supercharger network expansion. Focus on building Model S for all of 2013, increase production capability then add Model X to the line-up. Don't expect to see any $ put towards Model X and Gen3 production.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Totally agree w/ the elimination of the lower tier as there would be a lesser incentive to choose larger batteries. Also note that since those cars were equipped with the 60 kwh there is only 2 battery types needed at swapping stations....
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  • Apr 1, 2013
    Clprenz
    He always has to throw that last minute curve ball. After further review, this announcement has video. It could be swappable batteries, and be battery tech. My only concern now arising is, why would a owner take their model s delivery in a month if they are about to produce a better car... The reservation theory might fail us here
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    vfx
    The company employees have been briefed today.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    ckessel
    There was talk about Tesla building their own aluminum foundry. The statement was something like "You know Tesla is building their own foundry?" The context was all the aluminum Tesla uses (as well as SpaceX). I wouldn't want to get someone in trouble if that was privileged info so I won't say where I heard it, but they were in a better position to know than the general public. It wasn't clear to me if it was just a possibility being considered or actually in development.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    ggr
    I'm making a wild guess here, but what if the announcement is that Warren Buffett is investing in Tesla and/or Buffett's Chinese electric car maker is doing a major deal with them?
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Jhall118
    Swapping batteries, or a "large battery" for trips makes zero sense. It completely goes against the spirit of the supercharger network. I don't have a clue what the announcement would be tomorrow, but I would be completely blown away (in a negative way) if it was something as lame as swapping batteries.

    The only two things that makes sense in my mind is:
    1) Elon accelerating the supercharger network release by putting out his own capital.

    2) Elon accelerating the number of cars produced by expanding the factory with his own capital.

    Nothing else really makes sense from either an SEC standpoint, using his own money, or feasible for him to afford to do. Buying a bunch of Model S's for something is a good guess, but I hardly would deem it even close to being better than announcing profitability.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2013
    Yggdrasill
    I'm not ruling out swapping batteries, though not the "Better Place"-model.

    I think it would be kind of awesome to be able to rent a 300 kWh lithium-air battery for the weekend! This wouldn't replace the superchargers, merely supplement them, as there will always be places where there are no superchargers.
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  • Apr 2, 2013
    deonb
    Did anybody notice the website just went down?
    Tesla Down.png

    Could be nothing. Could be removing references to the 40 kWh. Or could be preparing for a big unveil - which would mean we'll see it before 2PM tomorrow.
    �
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Eberhard
    i Think, Elon will announce to delay Model-X in favour for the Gen-III, starting mass-production in 2015 with target of 500.000/year by 2017
    �
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Yggdrasill
    How about a taxi-deal?

    A deal to put 10 000 Model S taxis on the road by 2014.
    �
  • Apr 2, 2013
    WarpedOne
    Such a delay is completely unnecessary. Gen III is held back by battery weight and price and nothing else.
    Model X was delayed because of Model S production issues. They don't want to repeat Model S child diseases.
    �
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Eberhard
    Gen III with 40kWh (60kWh Option) + Supercharger gives 150miles (230miles) range. Or 20kWh pack with an small Fuel-Cell (3-5kW) Range-Extender.
    �
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