teslamotorclub: Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA part 4

I do see where Realist is coming from on the diesel challenge for Model S in Germany, however, the economics, over time and mileage, favor the electric Model S. Of course this assumes the Model S performs over the course of it's warranty, but the German's will be the judge of that with their wallets.

The point about needing to stop and charge is a real and does worry me as it might be a big enough detractor for Germans, but that remains to be seen. Will be anxious to watch the monthly sales numbers for Germany.
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qwk wrote ; " Peak torque or hp numbers don't mean much(just marketing). It's the area under the curve that matters. Guess which car wins that? "

I reckon Realist is referring to an 310 hp / 650 Nm Audi A6 with a top speed of 157 mph easily running at 140 mph continuously with a 500 miles range at that speed - an impossible task for any electric car.
Unlike the Tesla Model S though, the Audi needs a five-minute break for fuel every 2.5 hours
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perdru said: ?

qwk wrote ; " Peak torque or hp numbers don't mean much(just marketing). It's the area under the curve that matters. Guess which car wins that? "

I reckon Realist is referring to an 310 hp / 650 Nm Audi A6 with a top speed of 157 mph easily running at 140 mph continuously with a 500 miles range at that speed - an impossible task for any electric car.
Unlike the Tesla Model S though, the Audi needs a five-minute break for fuel every 2.5 hours
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Nobody is going to be driving 500 miles at 140mph anywhere on this planet. These unrealistic scenarios are worthless.
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qwk wrote :
" Nobody is going to be driving 500 miles at 140mph anywhere on this planet. These unrealistic scenarios are worthless."

In order to understand Realist I think you will have to reconsider your perception of unRealistic scenarioes
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qwk said: ?

Nobody is going to be driving 500 miles at 140mph anywhere on this planet. These unrealistic scenarios are worthless.
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Being not from Germany (nor ever been there) what is the longest stretch of the autobahn where one COULD reasonably go 140? 100 miles? 200 miles? Because I think that expectation would be a more realistic expectation to eliminate "range anxiety" for these guys.

- - - Updated - - -

Actually I take it back. If everything I am reading about their traffic there, and where speeds are enforced and not enforced, one could reasonably drive from (for example) Hamburg to Munich (498 miles) going 140 *most* of the way. So it is not unrealistic to assume that one would want the option to go that fast for 500 miles. I mean the difference between 140 vs 60/70 over that distance is a double in travel time... from around 3 hours to 6+. That is not inconsiderable. But then you have to ask yourself, how often do you need to travel that far? Would it possibly just be better to fly or take a train? For the record as of 2012 they have ~12,000 km of "autobahn".
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If Germany is going to meet its EU-mandated carbon goals, it will need to enforce reasonable speed limits on the autobahn. The CO2/km rate is unacceptable at 200kph.
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Robert.Boston said: ?

If Germany is going to meet its EU-mandated carbon goals, it will need to enforce reasonable speed limits on the autobahn. The CO2/km rate is unacceptable at 200kph.
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Autobahn sections without speed limit were sold to the public as "giving our car industry an edge over the competition." Just weird, but any German government trying to appeal that will have a hard time.
OTOH Tesla sales numbers would skyrocket in Germany if a speed limit of 120kph were imposed on ICE only :love:
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VolkerP said: ?

Autobahn sections without speed limit were sold to the public as "giving our car industry an edge over the competition." Just weird, but any German government trying to appeal that will have a hard time.
OTOH Tesla sales numbers would skyrocket in Germany if a speed limit of 120kph were imposed on ICE only :love:
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I dunno, Germany is back-asswards given their removal of Nuclear power, switching to like full coal, and then leasing from France, which is almost all nuclear... they have no clue how to really be "green" and it is funny. (Not that I am pro-green, I am pro-sustainment... coal is not really sustainable for much longer...)
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chickensevil said: ?

If everything I am reading about their traffic there, and where speeds are enforced and not enforced, one could reasonably drive from (for example) Hamburg to Munich (498 miles) going 140 *most* of the way. So it is not unrealistic to assume that one would want the option to go that fast for 500 miles. I mean the difference between 140 vs 60/70 over that distance is a double in travel time... from around 3 hours to 6+. That is not inconsiderable. But then you have to ask yourself, how often do you need to travel that far? Would it possibly just be better to fly or take a train?
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This somewhat reflects what I'd call the German Autobahn myth. Between Hamburg and Munich there are some not inconsiderable stretches which do have speed limits of 130kph (80mph) so that's the first issue (Germany has an abundance of Blitzger�te or standalone traffic cameras to enforce speed limits); in addition, many Autobahns are still two lane and the volume of traffic makes it almost impossible to maintain speeds above above ~160kph (100mph) so this becomes the second issue; finally, traffic volume has gotten much worse since the expansion of the European Union eastwards as Germany has become a major thoroughfare for goods moving by road in both directions, overtaking long lines of trucks with reduced distance visibility tends to slow traffic.

If I was driving from Munich to Hamburg in the fastest ICE I'd still plan for 6 hours at least....truth be told, I wouldn't drive anyway because there's like 20 direct flights per day with a flight time of 80mins and costs generally under $200 if you avoid the peak business flights. If saving time means that much to you, you fly, you don't drive.

(I lived in Germany for many years, my wife is French/German and we have relatives and friends who live in Germany)
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Realist said: ?

I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.

You cannot do this in an electric car.
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Yes you can. You just need battery swapping instead of charging.

Tesla will have an autobahn package for the German market. It would make sense as part of that package to include "free" battery swapping (in the same way that we have "free" Supercharging).
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I don't think it is very realistic for Tesla to make major changes in their entire product line for Germany when they are and will be supply constrained for the rest of the world for years to come. The more logical option is to do what they have done, i.e., limited high speed package, and let anyone who needs to drive 140mph for 500miles without any breaks to the Germany companies. Niche marketing moves in two directions - that is sometimes you position yourself as the best alternative in a given niche and charge a premium and sometimes you take the general market and position your competitors in a niche (think people who need a keyboard on their smartphone).

Maybe realist can let us know how he plans to drive his i3 on the autobahn.
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NigelM said: ?

This somewhat reflects what I'd call the German Autobahn myth. Between Hamburg and Munich there are some not inconsiderable stretches which do have speed limits of 130kph (80mph) so that's the first issue (Germany has an abundance of Blitzger�te or standalone traffic cameras to enforce speed limits); in addition, many Autobahns are still two lane and the volume of traffic makes it almost impossible to maintain speeds above above ~160kph (100mph) so this becomes the second issue; finally, traffic volume has gotten much worse since the expansion of the European Union eastwards as Germany has become a major thoroughfare for goods moving by road in both directions, overtaking long lines of trucks with reduced distance visibility tends to slow traffic.

If I was driving from Munich to Hamburg in the fastest ICE I'd still plan for 6 hours at least....truth be told, I wouldn't drive anyway because there's like 20 direct flights per day with a flight time of 80mins and costs generally under $200 if you avoid the peak business flights. If saving time means that much to you, you fly, you don't drive.

(I lived in Germany for many years, my wife is French/German and we have relatives and friends who live in Germany)
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Well then that gives even more credence to what I said when I suggested a flight haha. This is why I was clear how much experience I had with their roads so someone like you could correct me. I mean if they get a battery that can handle that we were basically get a battery that NOONE would be able to complain about range anxiety. So while it might be "niche" I think it is worth getting somewhere close to that level.
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30seconds said: ?

I don't think it is very realistic for Tesla to make major changes in their entire product line for Germany when they are and will be supply constrained for the rest of the world for years to come. The more logical option is to do what they have done, i.e., limited high speed package, and let anyone who needs to drive 140mph for 500miles without any breaks to the Germany companies. Niche marketing moves in two directions - that is sometimes you position yourself as the best alternative in a given niche and charge a premium and sometimes you take the general market and position your competitors in a niche (think people who need a keyboard on their smartphone).

Maybe realist can let us know how he plans to drive his i3 on the autobahn.
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I hope and expect that Tesla will sell a lot of cars in Germany.
Many Germans share American Tesla owners� wish for a cleaner environment -
Tesla�s determination to make Germany their second largest market must be based on a thorough market research combined with a positive trend regarding Model S orders .
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It would seem that Germany is going to be a battleground for Tesla as BMW, with several others, are entrenched and make excellent ICE cars. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_cars#Current_major_manufacturers

In looking for monthly sales data for Germany I found this article which notes a PDF but there is no link: http://europe.autonews.com/article/20131104/ANE/131109927/october-car-sales-rise-in-germany-france-and-spain#axzz2r4BbWs4B

Anyone have reliable monthly sales data for Germany by automaker?
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perdru said: ?

I hope and expect that Tesla will sell a lot of cars in Germany.
Many Germans share American Tesla owners� wish for a cleaner environment -
Tesla�s determination to make Germany their second largest market must be based on a thorough market research combined with a positive trend regarding Model S orders .
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Tesla also needs to establish itself as a common high-end brand in Germany with a high-end no-compromises offering.

Otherwise when it eventually brings out cheaper models, it will be seen as the "Kia" of the market. No matter what Kia bring out, it will forever be seen as a low-end compromise vehicle.

I think Tesla has succeeded with this branding in the U.S, and now it's just a messaging and execution thing. However, in Germany the vehicle may get a bit more widely regarded in the same way we look at a Leaf.
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Discoducky said: ?

It would seem that Germany is going to be a battleground for Tesla as BMW, with several others, are entrenched and make excellent ICE cars. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_cars#Current_major_manufacturers

In looking for monthly sales data for Germany I found this article which notes a PDF but there is no link: http://europe.autonews.com/article/20131104/ANE/131109927/october-car-sales-rise-in-germany-france-and-spain#axzz2r4BbWs4B

Anyone have reliable monthly sales data for Germany by automaker?
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I have to say that I think that Matt Gasnier's Best Selling Cars blog is great. It has numbers from 177 countries, including Germany.

Best Selling Cars Germany

Sales are dominated by the domestics (and outside manufacturers automakers owned by the domestics).
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deonb said: ?

Tesla also needs to establish itself as a common high-end brand in Germany with a high-end no-compromises offering.

Otherwise when it eventually brings out cheaper models, it will be seen as the "Kia" of the market. No matter what Kia bring out, it will forever be seen as a low-end compromise vehicle.
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Tesla's idea of "cheaper" is something that competes directly with the BMW 3-series, nothing down-market from there. The 3-series certainly hasn't tarnished BMW's image.
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Realist said: ?

I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.

You cannot do this in an electric car.
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To commute 650km each way by automobile is a very unusual situation, even in the U.S., where highways run through vast areas of uninhabited wilderness. Tesla is not building cars that cover extreme situations. The Model S is designed to accommodate the needs of most people (not all) without compromise.
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deonb said: ?

Tesla will have an autobahn package for the German market. It would make sense as part of that package to include "free" battery swapping (in the same way that we have "free" Supercharging).
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the autobahn issue (requirement to recharge EVs frequently given the high speeds driven) has seemed like a very real issue to me (at the very least with respect to germans' perception of the attractiveness of tesla specifically and electrical cars in general). i've had a hard time wrapping my head around how tesla can address this issue (which i think will be key for success in the german market), but your reading your post was like having a lightbulb go off -- i can't believe i hadn't thought of battery swapping as a solution.

in my opinion the german autobahn would seem to be the perfect location for battery swap stations. i think making the swapping be free as part of an autobahn package makes a lot of sense -- the vague description of how swapping stations would work in the U.S. was somewhat confusing and less than appealing.

i'd be curious to hear from realist and other germans about your perception of battery swapping as a potential solution.

surfside
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Unlike sunny California doing swapping stations at SC locations would be tough. Considering the snow/mud/dirt that is prevalent at least a third of the year the stations really need to be a carwash+battery swap stations.
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Range isn't the only problem. From a driver's perspective, I think the real problem is gearing.

I'm guessing here because Realist isn't giving us any real data. But ...

A great strength of the S is instant high torque and no gears. No "I need to downshift, spin the engine up to speed and then go." Even on a Ferrari, that takes a split second of time. On the S, you just hit the throttle and the car moves. At 75 mph. At 120 mph, I suspect not so much. The engine is probably nearing max rpm. If the S even had a two-speed transmission, it would be a different story. But as I understand it, Tesla had real problems sourcing a transmission that could shift very quickly and withstand extremely high torque. I'm sure you can get one - Ferrari and McLaren probably have a similar problem - but the cost is likely very high. Way too high to keep the S at its target price point.

And frankly, it's not worth it. Where else in the world but Germany can you drive for hours at those speeds? Nowhere that I know of. Either the highways aren't good enough or guaranteed to be free of obstructions or the speed laws won't permit it.

So the high speed German market is a niche market. Germany's population is about 82 million people. That's like Texas, California and New York put together so it's a decent sized niche. But even if Tesla never sells a single car in Germany, it's not a backbreaker. France and the UK put together is about 120 million. The US is over 300 million. Not to mention China and the rest of the world.

The S may be at a disadvantage in Germany in its current form. But even if that's the case, as a stockholder I'm not worried. I'm sure they'll sell some in Germany to the folks who cruise at 80-90 mph on the highway instead of 120. And even if they don't, the changes required to make the car great at those speeds isn't worth the investment - yet.

Tesla will have its hands full building and selling cars in every other part of the world. If they can do that, they'll make a ton of money in the process. They can worry about two-speed transmissions later. When they bring out the E, the volumes will be there to make the business case for sourcing such a transmission reasonable.
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Hmm... when I was speaking with Rafael de Mestre who lives in Germany he mentioned that the fun part about the Model S is that while driving at 190km/h most cars that drive are veeery slow to change speed up. So all the BMW's, Audi's etc if they decide to pass anyone at 190 km/h or accelerate for what ever reason it happens in slow-motion. While when he's going at 190km/h in the Model S and floors it the car jumps forward instantly. Yes it's not as hard as it is at 0 or 100km/h, but it's still instant change in speed and that it was something that he had to get used to when he was doing autobahn speeds as at those speeds the relative motions have to really be observed between cars and a car that behaves differently to others is somewhat unexpected. So not sure why you'd need a two-shift gearbox
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Hey, like I said, I'm guessing because Realist won't give us specifics on what he doesn't like.

That said, I think you're right on gas-powered cars. The S is better than my old BMW 330i at any speed I've tried. I never cracked 100 mph with either but the response was falling off on the 3 as one approached 90 mph so I think the S would hold its own.

Don't know about diesel though. With its high torque, it's possible that diesel cars at high speeds could be better than both the S or a gas-powered car.

Can anyone who drives a good diesel at autobahn speeds comment?
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WRT Registration numbers: In Germany were released by the Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA). Same authority that concluded the Model S review back in December and cleared Tesla of any wrong doing.

Germany 181 Model S
Switzerland 155 Model S Jan-Nov
Austria 55 Model S IIRC
Norway approaching 2000

BTW on most sites, Tesla numbers are too low to get extra listing. KBA has indicated they will list Tesla separately for 2014.

WRT high speed long distance driving in Germany: Nigel is right. High speeds of +100mph can be driven only at night time on limited strips of Autobahn. General speed limits, 2 lanes, heavy traffic, or construction sites make it impossible to get to high average speeds. Well the problem for Tesla is more of perceived limitation.

Last Monday, Tesla in Stuttgart lent a P85+ to an individual to test Stuttgart - Munich where there is 1 supercharger. He was concerned with range, as he is used to barrel down the Autobahn with his 700hp tuned Audi RS6. He ordered a P85+ the very same evening.
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> > I remember working in Hamburg for 3 months. From my home town this is more than 650km distance. Usually I left my home at 6 p.m and arrived in Hamburg always before midnight. Sometimes it took me less than 5 hours. The car was a 150hp Gold Diesel.
> > You cannot do this in an electric car.
> Yes you can. You just need battery swapping instead of charging.

For 650 km even better solution is just a bit bigger battery. 110 kWh might still not cut it, but 150 kWh on the other hand should suffice for 750 km.
Even bigger batteries don't offer much value anymore. It boils down to how far one can reasonably drive in a day. 300 km? Yes, easily. 500 km? Doable. 700 km? Hard but possible. 1000 km? GTFO.
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NigelM said: ?

This somewhat reflects what I'd call the German Autobahn myth. Between Hamburg and Munich there are some not inconsiderable stretches which do have speed limits of 130kph (80mph) so that's the first issue (Germany has an abundance of Blitzger�te or standalone traffic cameras to enforce speed limits); in addition, many Autobahns are still two lane and the volume of traffic makes it almost impossible to maintain speeds above above ~160kph (100mph) so this becomes the second issue; finally, traffic volume has gotten much worse since the expansion of the European Union eastwards as Germany has become a major thoroughfare for goods moving by road in both directions, overtaking long lines of trucks with reduced distance visibility tends to slow traffic.

If I was driving from Munich to Hamburg in the fastest ICE I'd still plan for 6 hours at least....truth be told, I wouldn't drive anyway because there's like 20 direct flights per day with a flight time of 80mins and costs generally under $200 if you avoid the peak business flights. If saving time means that much to you, you fly, you don't drive.

(I lived in Germany for many years, my wife is French/German and we have relatives and friends who live in Germany)
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Living in Hamburg i second that. No one in their right mind drives to Munich by car. You take the train or better yet the plane.

Here is a map with the german Autobahn, blue means no speed limit: http://www.autobahnatlas-online.de/Limitkarte.pdf
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maekuz said: ?

Living in Hamburg i second that. No one in their right mind drives to Munich by car. You take the train or better yet the plane.

Here is a map with the german Autobahn, blue means no speed limit: http://www.autobahnatlas-online.de/Limitkarte.pdf
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You may be right.
Anyhow, with Tesla�s announced German SC network driving long distances at high speed should not be a problem even i Germany
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To answer Mario: the gearbox is needed to get to higher speeds than the current 120-130mph limit. The top speed is limited by the RPMs of the motor and Tesla's choice of the gearing in the reducer. (Technically the Model S does have a transmission, but it only has one gear.)
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I suppose Tesla could do a "German" gearing and give up a bit of acceleration on the low end to move the top speed up. Rough estimate I think they could hit a 150mph top speed and still have acceptable low end acceleration.
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Very lively discussion, nice.

I think it�s crucial to understand that driving at higher speed drives up your energy consumption at an exponential rate. For the Model S this is a problem because even with the 85 kwh battery the amount of energy transported is less than the equivalent of 10l of Gasoline or Diesel.

When I tried the Model s I drove it in the same manner as my standard car. If you really go to the topspeed you basically destroy your range. The Model S one single gear doesn�t help because even the electric drive of the Tesla has different efficiency levels depending on engine speed. Therefore as soon as your torque curve goes down your efficiency suffers as well. In an 8 speed gasoline car this is less an issue.

When I tried the Tesla the car really started to limit power severely. It was still capable of reaching its top speed but the acceleration was quite poor. I don�t know if this has to do only with thermal management. I think Tesla want�s to limit the power in order to prevent the range from collapsing. BMW is doing this on the i3. Above 130 kph the car feels like it has 60hp. Just like the Tesla feels like a 200hp car above 180kph.

I am driving on the Autobahn A9 from Ingolstadt to my office close to Munich every day. It is a 3 line Autobahn and I can touch the top speed of my car almost every single day even during the morning hours. This is of course not the case on a 2 line Autobahn which are common in the middle and north of germany. However during nighttime going 200, 250 even 300 is not a problem in the right car. And when things get crowed the unlimited speed clearly helps you passing other cars. Indeed many Autobahn parts are limited and restricted. But even with a 130kph speed limit you can drive 150 without getting a fine. Drive 150kph in your Tesla and the range will already suffer dramatically. But this is a speed you can drive in many parts of Europe like France, Italy, Spain etc��..It took me less than 6 hours to go from the Paris Auto Show to Munich.

The only european country with severe speed limits is Switzerland. In this country I set the cruise control to 120 and that�s it. Switzerland is in my opinion the worst country to drive a car. Driving at constant speed is no fun at all and you really need to concentrate otherwise you fell asleep. It happened to my father when he drove to Geneva in a Mercedes S Class. It was all too boring. :-D I am happy to drive in germany. The majority of the german people actually favor unlimited speed. The cars are built for this. We had 300kph saloon cars like the Alpina Biturbo in the 80s.

Is it the most efficient way to drive at such insane speeds? Of course not. But is it reasonable to drive a sportscar or a motorbike just for fun? What is the difference between driving fast and driving down your favourite without destination? Yes it is fun and I think in the year 2014 we should be able to drive faster than 130 kph on our roads. In the 80s cars had no ESP or ABS. So why should the speed be limited now just for environmental reasons? Using a car is never really energy efficient. In this country you can ALWAYS use the train, the plane, the bus or a bicycle instead. But you have the choice, just as you have the choice to go fast or slow in your car.
Yet many people will still like the Tesla and there�s no problem with that. It�s a unique car in its on right. An Autobahn rocket it is not.
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Realist said: ?

[...] An Autobahn rocket it is not.
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It's interesting to read your take on driving/transportation. What you are describing is very, very uncommon, even in Bavaria as far as I am aware of. You are one of the very few percentage of Germans (ppm of the world's drivers) who actually use the ability of luxury cars to the fullest. Much can be said about that, both that it's nice to know that there is one place on earth where it's still legal to go that fast on the other hand I wouldn't want to crash at speeds like that and you are really burning energy going that fast (no matter if it's kWh of electricity or fossil fuels). The point though is that Tesla might loose 1 ppm of their potential customer base world-wide. So what?

In Norway top speed limit is 100 km/h on two-way highways with middle of the road divider. Go figure. (There is talk about increasing this limit to 110 km/h). And you will get a hefty fine for going 10-20 km/h over that, and you will loose your licence going 130 km/h+. Did I mention there is a "zero-vision" when it comes to traffic casualties that is taken seriously by politicians here?
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Realist said: ?

I think it�s crucial to understand that driving at higher speed drives up your energy consumption at an exponential rate.
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Quadratic, not exponential. Actually cubic in power consumption, but quadratic in energy used to get from A to B. Many people say "exponential" when what they really mean is that it curves upward. Sorry to be pedantic, but as a professional mathematician I just can't help myself.
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I would just like to point out that if car traveling at 90km/h has kinetic energy E, then a car driving at 180km/h has 4x E and a car going at 270km/h (your kind of speed limit, Realist) the cars kinetic energy is 9x E. That means that if you DO crash at that speed the car has to absorb 9x the energy of a 90km/h crash which in itself is already quite a severe crash. Most countries limit speeds at 130km/h HIGHEST. Normal speed limits on highways are between 90-110km/h. Basically your kinetic energy doubles going 50 -> 70 -> 100 km/h in every step as the kinetic energy formula is E = 1/2 m v^2 so it's a square dependence on speed.

Just think about that the next time you fly on the autobahn at 270km/h
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Johan said: ?

What you are describing is very, very uncommon, even in Bavaria as far as I am aware of. You are one of the very few percentage of Germans (ppm of the world's drivers) who actually use the ability of luxury cars to the fullest.
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I agree that the top speeds Realist is referring to is uncommon. But I've lived in a couple of places where driving in speeds at excess of 100mph for hours is actually fairly common:

a) The E11 between Dubai and Abu Dhabi
b) The N3 between Johannesburg and Durban
c) The N1 between Johannesburg and Capetown

It's not legal (speed limit is 75mph), but the fines are still so small at 100mph, that if you can afford the car and fuel to average 100mph, you won't care about an occasional $50 fine a few times per year - it also has no impact on your license or insurance.

So e.g. on the N3 virtually every non-towing vehicle would drive over 85mph, with half over 90mph and about 25% over 95mph. For 400 miles.

BUT! It's also very common in South Africa to stop for LONG breaks when refueling. The highway gas stations in South Africa will put any gas station in the U.S. to shame, with large sit-down restaurants, stores, and sometimes even picnic areas with braais (BBQ's) etc. Charging is NOT an issue. Security however is of utmost concern there - you can't do what you do in the U.S. and place a SuperCharger in some parking lot next to some strip mall that's closed at night. You HAVE to put them in highway gas stations that have 24x7 armed security.

Anyway, my point is - every culture is very different when it comes to travelling. I hope when Tesla expands they will really take into account local customs and traditions, and it's not just someone in CA looking at a map from halfway across the world and putting some pins on a map.
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Johan said: ?

In Norway top speed limit is 100 km/h on two-way highways with middle of the road divider. Go figure. (There is talk about increasing this limit to 110 km/h). And you will get a hefty fine for going 10-20 km/h over that, and you will loose your licence going 130 km/h+. Did I mention there is a "zero-vision" when it comes to traffic casualties that is taken seriously by politicians here?
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Anyone keeping the 100 km/h speed limit in Norway will be left behind - actual speed on the 100 km/h limit " freeways " is 120 - 125 km/h ( 78 mph ).

Living in the south of Norway I often visit Germany , not solely to speed on the Autobahn ;-), but the no-speed-limit is really one of features when driving a high performance car.

I share the fast lane with many dedicated drivers and I hope a lot of Tesla Model S�s soon join me
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Realist said: ?

Very lively discussion, nice.

I think it�s crucial to understand that driving at higher speed drives up your energy consumption at an exponential rate. For the Model S this is a problem because even with the 85 kwh battery the amount of energy transported is less than the equivalent of 10l of Gasoline or Diesel.

When I tried the Model s I drove it in the same manner as my standard car. If you really go to the topspeed you basically destroy your range. ...

I am driving on the Autobahn A9 from Ingolstadt to my office close to Munich every day. It is a 3 line Autobahn and I can touch the top speed of my car almost every single day even during the morning hours.
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So you have an 160km round trip commute and are worried about range at high speeds? You can go 150kph to your heart's content and likely spend some time right at top speeds besides. Just plug in every night.

No, not an autobahn rocket. But if it's about you, then it seems the car fits your daily driver needs quite nicely. If it's not about you, perhaps consider how extreme your case seems to be. Can Tesla survive the shame of only meeting your daily needs but no more, and still sell a few (2-3) thousand MS units in Germany? I think that's really all they need.[/FONT]
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VolkerP said: ?

WRT Registration numbers: In Germany were released by the Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA). Same authority that concluded the Model S review back in December and cleared Tesla of any wrong doing.

Germany 181 Model S
Switzerland 155 Model S Jan-Nov
Austria 55 Model S IIRC
Norway approaching 2000

BTW on most sites, Tesla numbers are too low to get extra listing. KBA has indicated they will list Tesla separately for 2014.

WRT high speed long distance driving in Germany: Nigel is right. High speeds of +100mph can be driven only at night time on limited strips of Autobahn. General speed limits, 2 lanes, heavy traffic, or construction sites make it impossible to get to high average speeds. Well the problem for Tesla is more of perceived limitation.

Last Monday, Tesla in Stuttgart lent a P85+ to an individual to test Stuttgart - Munich where there is 1 supercharger. He was concerned with range, as he is used to barrel down the Autobahn with his 700hp tuned Audi RS6. He ordered a P85+ the very same evening.
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Thanks VolkerP! It is going to be very interesting to see the Germany #'s unfold up to and including March when the Supercharger network is fully built out for Germany.

Also, do the headlights for German cars have a setting to see farther ahead at greater than 100mph? I've driven a few cars above 100mph on the highway at night and you really cannot see far enough ahead. Only with the PIAA lights on the MINI Cooper (which basically turn night into day) would project near far enough.
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http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.nzz.ch/lebensart/auto-mobil/der-tesla-im-langstreckentest-1.18226862&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.nzz.ch/lebensart/auto-mobil/der-tesla-im-langstreckentest-1.18226862%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D900

New German review of Model S that includes autobahn driving with rough google translation.
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RobStark said: ?

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.nzz.ch/lebensart/auto-mobil/der-tesla-im-langstreckentest-1.18226862&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.nzz.ch/lebensart/auto-mobil/der-tesla-im-langstreckentest-1.18226862%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D900

New German review of Model S that includes autobahn driving with rough google translation.
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Thanks for the link, Rob! But...

Can someone (a human please) translate the conclusion paragraph? The google translation leaves much to be desired.
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translation of final paragraph from NZZ article by me:

NZZ said:

Some incidents of battery fires made it into the news. According to Tesla, these were caused by external damages. A fire started while charging would be disastrous, but that has never happened.

Conclusion: With Model S, Tesla offers a premium class sedan (prices from 83.000 to 147.000 swiss Franks, service included, 8 years battery warranty) that excels any comparable gasoline or diesel powered vehicle. Electric mobility must be experienced exactly like this, if it is to prevail.
Click to expand...

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Thanks, VolkerP!
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Realist said: ?

Very lively discussion, nice.
An Autobahn rocket it is not.
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See but this is where you lose me. Even for the i3 being a lower price, it is a pitiful EV in every regard, and has even been commented as very poor on the luxury standard when you compare it with the rest of the 3 series. For a little more cash you can get the i3 but better in every way, all you are losing out on is the shiny BMW logo. Yet the i3 is "sold out" for their preorders... How does that make any sense?

Does the price of the car really make that big of a difference that it somehow grabs the attention of an entirely different group of people? Here in the US many settled on the Leaf to bide their time until they could get a longer range. I don't really see how this is any different? The only explanation is brand loyalty. I just don't know how you are going to be able to overcome that, and I don't think it is worth it for Tesla to kill themselves in appeasing 63 million people... At least, not right now. They would be better focused on selling to their prime markets and letting this one go for now. They can come back on the redo of the Model S when they have somehow figured out the gearing issue, and got a battery at 150kw. Until then I don't think they are going to be able to overcome the mindset for that market
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Well as I have written before. The i3 base price is half of a Model S 60kwh. You cannot compare these cars. The i3�s price is a lot closer to a Leaf, Zoe or Golf E. Yet none of these cars is close to the i3�s fun factor.

Of course the i3 is lost on the Autobahn. Just like the Model S. In an urban environment however it makes a lot more sense than the Tesla. Excellent turning circle, great visibility and a much higher quality standard. In fact the Tesla�s nav and radio really don�t work very well here. The i3�s range calculation is much more advanced than the Tesla�s. And I would also like to note: If you compare the CO2 footprints of these cars the BMW is on an entirely different planet.
Ironically the Tesla�s inferior product quality could be the reason why so many people short the stock. But as I have learned from this forum: This car is like a religion. In the US it has become a mass movement. It won�t stop.
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I'm sorry, but it's not just a mass movement. People want a good electric car, but they don't want to give up the comforts they have from the Mercedes, Audi, BMW especially the 5 comfortable seating + loads of space to fit their stuff. No other carmaker is making an EV that is a full five seat four door saloon that can drive reasonable distances. Yes germans are a bit nuts with their autobahn so it's all in their head that they need to drive 250km/h everywhere and if the car doesn't go full speed for 6+ hours in row, then it sucks. This is the only country in the world where this would be "an issue" and in most cases the issue is between the ears. To be honest I would prefer the speeds be limited to 120-130km/h max because I am a physicist and I know what those speeds do.

I just now talked with a board member of a large company here and he arrived in his brand new Mercedes E-class and after the short test drive and chat he asked me if he could call me again when he's doing the ordering to go over the details as he'll be swapping out his E-class car for this for sure.
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It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.
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Realist said: ?

It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.
Click to expand...

It's not people buying it because others say it's the best car in the world. It's because they experience the car and it blows them away with most aspects of it. And the fact that an electric car is a nice saloon with fully capitalizing on the benefits of electric drive and battery locations is an added benefit. Yes, you are in the exclusive club of people who NEED to go to the autobahn for max speed for hours and might have some issues with the interior being so spartan, but that doesn't mean that others who think differently and like the car are immediately under mass psychosis. Most people who drive luxury cars that I've shown the car to and done test drives are impressed with it enough to start seriously contemplating the swap. For them it's not the savings and being green, but the car itself. The savings and greenness is just icing on the cake.
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Mario Kadastik said: ?

No other carmaker is making an EV that is a full five seat four door saloon that can drive reasonable distances.
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I'm going to assume that was Auto Correct doing its thing, and not that you were sitting in a bar at the time throwing back a few whiskeys. :wink:

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Realist said: ?

It's just a normal big car with an electric drive.
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This statement alone stamps your view with tremendous bias; that you can't, or won't, acknowledge the fundamental engineering brilliance, both in its simplicity and its complexity of the Model S. I've got a lot of brand loyal Germans in my family, many of whom have worked for Mercedes or BMW in Germany, and they aren't so stubborn as to not recognize the possibilities the Model S brings to the world.

It's NOT 'just a normal big car with an electric drive.'
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saloon_(automobile)
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Zaxxon said: ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saloon_(automobile)
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Ah, cool. Next time I visit my friends in Oklahoma, I'm going to tell them I'd like them to drive me around in their saloon. I can guarantee they'll be asking me how much I've had to drink.
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Realist said: ?

Well as I have written before. The i3 base price is half of a Model S 60kwh. You cannot compare these cars. The i3�s price is a lot closer to a Leaf, Zoe or Golf E. Yet none of these cars is close to the i3�s fun factor.

Of course the i3 is lost on the Autobahn. Just like the Model S. In an urban environment however it makes a lot more sense than the Tesla. Excellent turning circle, great visibility and a much higher quality standard. In fact the Tesla�s nav and radio really don�t work very well here. The i3�s range calculation is much more advanced than the Tesla�s. And I would also like to note: If you compare the CO2 footprints of these cars the BMW is on an entirely different planet.
Ironically the Tesla�s inferior product quality could be the reason why so many people short the stock. But as I have learned from this forum: This car is like a religion. In the US it has become a mass movement. It won�t stop.
Click to expand...

I think the religion here goes both ways. Yes, there are too many people on the forum who are blind to the S's drawbacks and execution challenges that face the company.

But I think you're giving too much weight to your personal preferences in cars which blinds you just as much. So you've got religion the other way.

My personal opinion: people who feel that strongly about super high speed performance represents a small niche market, even in Germany. Tesla may not do as well in Germany as they are doing in the US but given Tesla's production numbers, they'll sell as many cars as they want to ship to Germany.

Certainly many of the folks in Silicon Valley would not be buying this car if its performance at 80-110 mph weren't at least on par with the Porsche's, BMW's and Mercedes that they are replacing. The demo Model S's are speed-limited here in the US to 80 mph in part because the folks at Santana Row begged headquarters for it. You can cruise here at 80+ mph if you're careful, Santana Row is very close to two major highways which are fairly empty during the day and too many of their customers were taking the cars to 100+ mph on their test drives. One of the highways heads up a mountain with fairly twisty turns, too.

We'll find out for sure in a year or so. By then, it'll become clear what the buying patterns are in Germany and we'll know.

But speaking as an investor, even if Tesla does terrible in Germany, there's so much demand elsewhere that Tesla has years of room for growth. And any real >120 mph performance problems can be solved with a 2-speed transmission and/or higher capacity battery packs. At least one of those and maybe both should be available by the time the Model E rolls out.

Honestly, the major challenges ahead of Tesla are scaling service and manufacturing. The autobahn issue you keep harping about is basically irrelevant. If Tesla can scale service and manufacturing, they'll grow enough and buy themselves enough time that they'll be able to fix any real problems in the Model E or after. If Tesla can't do that, they'll top out and be a successful supply-limited car company - not a bad thing but the stock price will take a hit and grow more slowly once that becomes clear.

- - - Updated - - -

Realist said: ?

It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.
Click to expand...

Here's another voice telling you:

People in the US aren't buying the car because it's a normal car that's electric. They're buying it because you can't get the combination of size, comfort, performance and cargo capacity in any other vehicle. Period.

Plus, short of maybe a McLaren, there aren't any cars out there that match the real-world throttle response of the S. Porsche's, Ferrari's, M-series BMW's, etc. can do it but only if the engine is already revving at high rpms. No one in their right mind drives on the street like that. On a track, yes. On the street, no. You'll shorten the lifetime of the engine too much.

For most buyers, any attractiveness of buying a electric vehicle is more than cancelled out by the fear of buying an expensive car from an upstart company that might not be in business 5-10 years from now.
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Realist said: ?

It is a mass movement. Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it. This is a how mass psychology works!

Indeed Tesla has done many things right with it. It's just a normal big car with an electric drive. Therefore most people have no problem in adapting to it.
Click to expand...

There is extreme bias in your words. After a test drive of the Model S, very few people(unless they have an agenda), would argue that there is a vehicle with better drivability on this planet. That's why there is no pressure at the Tesla stores. The car sells itself.
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Realist said: ?

Everyone says it's the best car in the world so everyone believes it.
Click to expand...

And everyone thinks that you can drive non-stop at unlimited speeds on all German Autobahns; but in reality that's not true and the myth survives. If you're right (and it's a lonesome view around here) there's just as little reason to assume the bubble will burst. Tesla can still win big time in Germany.
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Realist said: ?

But as I have learned from this forum: This car is like a religion. In the US it has become a mass movement. It won�t stop.
Click to expand...

Not just in the US - and religion or not, the replacement for my current Audi will be an electric car. If Audi offers one or not is up to them... Right now, it doesn't look good for Audi.
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I don't know why you guys keep trying to debate Realist. As I stated last week he is clearly a German Car fanboy and a very stubborn one at that. He is living in his own world ignoring all that is going on around him. I get it, I'm mostly of German heritage and loved my past German sedans. I picked up a BMW 540 at the factory and drove it to France on the autobahn. Realist, do yourself a favor and take off your silver tinted glasses and pay attention to what everyone else is acknowledging.
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Realist said: ?

Well as I have written before. The i3 base price is half of a Model S 60kwh. You cannot compare these cars. The i3�s price is a lot closer to a Leaf, Zoe or Golf E. Yet none of these cars is close to the i3�s fun factor.

Of course the i3 is lost on the Autobahn. Just like the Model S. In an urban environment however it makes a lot more sense than the Tesla. Excellent turning circle, great visibility and a much higher quality standard. In fact the Tesla�s nav and radio really don�t work very well here. The i3�s range calculation is much more advanced than the Tesla�s. And I would also like to note: If you compare the CO2 footprints of these cars the BMW is on an entirely different planet.
Ironically the Tesla�s inferior product quality could be the reason why so many people short the stock. But as I have learned from this forum: This car is like a religion. In the US it has become a mass movement. It won�t stop.
Click to expand...

I guess I have just been subject to sticking to reviews of the i3, since I can't test drive one. I do realize the price, I just can't believe that the price is the only contributing factor in people in Germany flocking to this car when they wouldn't even consider the S.

I do readily acknowledge the flaws of the S, from what I have seen and heard others talk about. I don't try to cover it up when I talk to others about the car. Contrary to some people's beliefs, the S is not the car for everyone. I would even be willing to say that the E is not suitable enough for everyone. If everyone could be satisfied by being given the choice between, what now? 3 models of cars (the S, X and E), then we wouldn't have some 20 different car brands out there each with some 10 - 20 different models. But I would say that as others have pointed out, it seems to be as good of a combination you can get (without compromising on these things) in reaching as wide of an audience as possible for that price range. This would be of course, Space, Range, Performance, and Luxury.

I can't tell if you are suggesting that BMW has a lower CO2 or Tesla... I don't really try to argue for either side of this one (too much), because there is so much misinformation (from both sides) that it is hard to really get a clear picture. I, however, and not supporting the car because it is "green". I am doing it out of a sustainability issue. We just can't stick to gas for much longer and MUST make the shift to all electric. If we don't get enough momentum on this one soon, it will be too late for us. (Keeping in mind that even the best estimates suggest only a 1% market penetration on global sales and maybe a 5% penetration on cars on the road by 2020... it is going to be a LONG shift)
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SebastianR said: ?

Not just in the US - and religion or not, the replacement for my current Audi will be an electric car. If Audi offers one or not is up to them... Right now, it doesn't look good for Audi.
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What are the incentives to buy an EV ?

Is the Model S a success in Denmark ?
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vin5xxx said: ?

I don't know why you guys keep trying to debate Realist. As I stated last week he is clearly a German Car fanboy and a very stubborn one at that. He is living in his own world ignoring all that is going on around him. I get it, I'm mostly of German heritage and loved my past German sedans. I picked up a BMW 540 at the factory and drove it to France on the autobahn. Realist, do yourself a favor and take off your silver tinted glasses and pay attention to what everyone else is acknowledging.
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Personally, I'm not arguing with him. He's not going to change his mind and that's ok. But it was worth the effort to uncover the kernels of fact buried in his whining that Germans will think the Model S is a horrible car.
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Fwiw, I own both a BMW 535 and a Tesla Model S. In my view, the Tesla has superior fit/finish, and vastly better driving dynamics at US highway speeds. The only clear plus for the BMW is more 12v power outlets.
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Ok guys the market has fallen down but TSLA remains rock solid.

The short ratio is still very high and people continue to view the company as overvalued.

I believe we can see a squeeze post earnings. I have doubled my position at current levels.
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Wow, Realist is an uber bull now!
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Stock is down today, and the market is really taking a pounding from all this QE tappering talk and the emerging market/china slopes. Here is hoping that things stay stable until the 19th!!! After that, I don't care since I will be dumping my position out because I will be using it to buy my car!

But it is really nice that Realist has turned around! This helps make me even more confident in the direction I am expecting it to go. Analysts are still holding out for an .18 EPS, which I highly expect to be much, much more than that. So if the conditions remain the same, expect a lot of covering on the Feb 22/March 7 options!!!
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Robert.Boston said: ?

Fwiw, I own both a BMW 535 and a Tesla Model S. In my view, the Tesla has superior fit/finish, and vastly better driving dynamics at US highway speeds. The only clear plus for the BMW is more 12v power outlets.
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Same here now. The interior of the 535 is nice but panel gaps on exterior are better on the S. Driving the 535 (2011) is not a pleasant experience. brakes work good but it sucks that you need to use them.
I think I sold an S to a kid that was looking at a BMW 650 or an A7 (apparently a 'grower' since he said he was also getting a Land rover next week.)

My cousin in law is/was visiting CA(Bay Area) from Munich (currently getting his masters in Austria in business/finance) I wanted him to school me on options some (didn't happen yet) but he was saying that TSLA is way overvalued currently but I think his opinion might have changed a little after taking him on a Factory tour / drive to Santa Cruz and S.F. + seeing how many are on the road in the local area

I'll just say he was very impressed by the factory and its Germanic cleanliness + the layout of everything and how well it is all though out.

Does anyone know what the new building on the south of the property is for?
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I am impressed that people continually come out of the woodworks to short tesla. I started thinking that short interest would decrease, but the number of people jumping on the short wagon (can we call it the short bus at this point) seems to keep on growing. I bought options today for next week, 180 strike.
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Realist said: ?

Ok guys the market has fallen down but TSLA remains rock solid.

The short ratio is still very high and people continue to view the company as overvalued.

I believe we can see a squeeze post earnings. I have doubled my position at current levels.
Click to expand...

So how did you do? Seeing as we are now post earnings! You extremely happy to be a bull like the rest of us?
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I did quite well so far, although I sold some shares at 200 going into earnings.

Bought back now at 213. I believe we might see 250 in a few weeks time.
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Realist said: ?

I did quite well so far, although I sold some shares at 200 going into earnings.
We
Bought back now at 213. I believe we might see 250 in a few weeks time.
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Nice!

Isn't it a lot more fun to be making money in TSLA rather than losing it?
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Realist said: ?

I did quite well so far, although I sold some shares at 200 going into earnings.

Bought back now at 213. I believe we might see 250 in a few weeks time.
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Wow. The day when Realist is more bullish than me...
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Causalien said: ?

Wow. The day when Realist is more bullish than me...
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Realist is bullish on the general bullishness.
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ItsNotAboutTheMoney said: ?

Realist is bullish on the general bullishness.
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It's a derivative on a derivative. An Ass Backward Security!!!
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If this were any other stock, and Realist had turned bullish on it, I would be selling
(Just kidding Realist)
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Welcome to the club Realist! Let's all make some more money together!
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Yeah, I think the stock price is "stuck" at 210 until people see what happens with the factory plans... So assuming that news gets taken well, we should be good for another pop! I think this is the only announcement that would have the power to stop the stock in it's tracks simply because there is the very real posibility of a major dilution of the shares. If they raise 5B on an offering (very likely), then we could see the stock stay put or even go down, because you just jumped the market cap by 20%! They will need to have a VERY solid plan going forward to NOT have that 5BN offering kill the share price.

On the other hand, Maybe they only raise another 1B in funding, get some money put forward by some of their "partners", and then take out a loan. That might not get taken so harshly.

I am not trying to sound negative at all here on this one. It is anyone's guess how the market will take it. I WANT them to build the factory no matter how they have to do it because it will be critical for the future success of the company. I am just really nervous about the announcement haha!
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with 5Billion they could do it without any partners.
Even If there is a dilution than my guess is around 1 Billion max.
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chickensevil said: ?

If they raise 5B on an offering (very likely)
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I doubt it will be near that much. Elon said they could do it without raising capital if they had more than three years. By itself that's an incredibly vague statement but I think that it shows they at least considered not raising capital and were able to make the numbers work. I can't imagine them expecting $5 billion of free positive cashflow in a ~5 year timeframe in this scenario where they do not have the gigafactory.
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245 sold.

I am out.
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StapleGun said: ?

I doubt it will be near that much. Elon said they could do it without raising capital if they had more than three years. By itself that's an incredibly vague statement but I think that it shows they at least considered not raising capital and were able to make the numbers work. I can't imagine them expecting $5 billion of free positive cashflow in a ~5 year timeframe in this scenario where they do not have the gigafactory.
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I agree, BUT...imagine what Tesla could do with $5 billion. Oh, there go a bunch of exploding heads.
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@Realist

What price would you buy back in at?
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I am staying on the sidelines for the moment and wait for details on the next capital increase and giga factory.
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Realist said: ?

245 sold.

I am out.
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Too soon :wink:
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JRP3 said: ?

Too soon :wink:
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It's the people who sell too early that usually enjoy a good life Vs the ones that sell too late. Congrats Realist on turning the table and going long, TSLA has rewarded that quite well I think
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Back in the 2000 bubble many stocks doubled in 3 months before collapsing.

Now Tesla has doubled in roughly 3 months and made 40% in 2 weeks. There is not much upside anymore. The shorts have thrown the towel today.

We could see a major top very soon.
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Don't be so sure. The amount of shorting that goes on with this stock and the new secondary and other upcoming items probably will establish a good consolidation region and still bring some upside. Short covering will keep the stock up quite a while...
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I struggled with this today because I feel sentiment is starting to get the better of me. Back when I re-bought in just before the January announcement, I knew it was only a matter of time to hit 200. 200 felt safe. After the announcement I was totally sold going to 200, and bought as much as I could as often as I could and it hit 200 a bit sooner than I could have imagined. Rather than selling as I originally planned, I held on since we still had the Q4. Q4 came out about as great as I expected it to (which was why I held in the first place). Now, here we are still out from a very expected secondary offering, and the uncertainty of the giga-factory. I had said, well if the stock hits 240 I am out... Along comes today, and it just blows past 240 and almost hits 260 today before coming back down. All in the 250s I struggled with the thought... should I sell?

Yes, Tesla is an amazing company, and yes I think that Tesla is going to go places both as a company and as a stock, but let's be honest here, this stock is trading 100% on technicals. I have swallowed a LOT of risk in holding out, and I just don't know if I have the sanity to continue holding. Full disclosure I must sell sometime between now and middle of March... so the question on upside, where is the stock going to go tomorrow? Where is the stock going to go when they announce the factory and offering details? I think I might just ride out tomorrow to see where I feel like a good sell point is, and just let it go. I have already had a 40% return on my whole investment since buying back in, in January.

So honestly, where do you guys feel it might go?
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I found the shorts:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/tesla-enterprise-value-just-25-below-general-motors

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Realist said: ?

Back in the 2000 bubble many stocks doubled in 3 months before collapsing.

Now Tesla has doubled in roughly 3 months and made 40% in 2 weeks. There is not much upside anymore. The shorts have thrown the towel today.

We could see a major top very soon.
Click to expand...

I don't think we're done yet. By the end of the week maybe.
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Well what I tend to do is to roll up options during days like today. For example I sold my March $225 calls @ $24 (originally bought for $6) and bought $265 calls and some $250 calls so that I had overall a slightly bigger delta than before, but the total cost for the new calls was only ca 60% of the sale value of the $225's. This way I pocketed 40% of cash and my exposure to TSLA didn't change. Then later in the day I sold the $250's as I felt the stock was a bit overextended and bought some $300's. The $250 were up 50% from the earlier buy price and the $300's cost peanuts (~$2.6 a piece) so I only used 25% of the $250 returned money to buy those $300's and my delta reduced slightly. As it came out the $257 (after we hit $259) where I did this was a good time to sell

Overall today I moved my portfolio from 15% cash and up 40% on initial investment to 33% cash and up 97% on initial investment (my cash now is actually 2/3 of the initial investment). In addition my TSLA delta today is higher than yesterday. Go figure I bought more of those $300 calls as TSLA dropped averaging down as I fully expect another squeeze day tomorrow, but even if I lose it all the gain today (~35% compared to yesterdays portfolio value) far outshines this gamble. And basically moving like this constantly allows me to free up cash and reduce risks. If TSLA were to dip now I have the cash to average down on some longer term options. Another option that I used also near the top was to sell Jan 2015 $390 calls to make my Jan $300 calls into risk free call spreads ($300..$390 risk free in January, what's not to like). But as TSLA plummeted somewhat I decided to buy those back at profit and leave myself higher TSLA exposure for tomorrow. Seems today I essentially timed the top quite well. But of course I should really have held onto my yesterday bought $230 calls instead of selling them at $5, $11.5, $14.5 (*sigh*).
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Realist said: ?

Back in the 2000 bubble many stocks doubled in 3 months before collapsing.

Now Tesla has doubled in roughly 3 months and made 40% in 2 weeks. There is not much upside anymore. The shorts have thrown the towel today.

We could see a major top very soon.
Click to expand...

From my experience, 259 did not look like a capitulation top.
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Mario Kadastik said: ?

Well what I tend to do is to roll up options during days like today. For example I sold my March $225 calls @ $24 (originally bought for $6) and bought $265 calls and some $250 calls so that I had overall a slightly bigger delta than before, but the total cost for the new calls was only ca 60% of the sale value of the $225's. This way I pocketed 40% of cash and my exposure to TSLA didn't change. Then later in the day I sold the $250's as I felt the stock was a bit overextended and bought some $300's. The $250 were up 50% from the earlier buy price and the $300's cost peanuts (~$2.6 a piece) so I only used 25% of the $250 returned money to buy those $300's and my delta reduced slightly. As it came out the $257 (after we hit $259) where I did this was a good time to sell

Overall today I moved my portfolio from 15% cash and up 40% on initial investment to 33% cash and up 97% on initial investment (my cash now is actually 2/3 of the initial investment). In addition my TSLA delta today is higher than yesterday. Go figure I bought more of those $300 calls as TSLA dropped averaging down as I fully expect another squeeze day tomorrow, but even if I lose it all the gain today (~35% compared to yesterdays portfolio value) far outshines this gamble. And basically moving like this constantly allows me to free up cash and reduce risks. If TSLA were to dip now I have the cash to average down on some longer term options. Another option that I used also near the top was to sell Jan 2015 $390 calls to make my Jan $300 calls into risk free call spreads ($300..$390 risk free in January, what's not to like). But as TSLA plummeted somewhat I decided to buy those back at profit and leave myself higher TSLA exposure for tomorrow. Seems today I essentially timed the top quite well. But of course I should really have held onto my yesterday bought $230 calls instead of selling them at $5, $11.5, $14.5 (*sigh*).
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if and when I ever get into options trading (I am 100% stock right now), I need to learn these finer points of buying across all these spread points. What makes you decide which ranges to buy? And how much do you generally put down across each trade? Like you are primarily talking about 225s 250s and 300s. How much of each would you buy to spread it out, and why? I mean I get the basics of buying and selling call options (puts I still have trouble wrapping my head around properly... so we will just ignore that side of the spectrum) but the logic behind the decisions is what gets me. My perspective on calls is you would buy a bunch of, say 255's and hold em until they mature and you get whatever the returns are, but it seems like you are taking the perspective to constantly trade your contracts so you are making all your money on the change in the premiums for those contracts. Do you ever take a contract to expiration and/or execute the contract to flip the stock? Like if your break even on a contract was at 225 and it rose to 250 (like it did today), would it be better to execute the contact and flip the stock (banking a 2500 win per contract) or to just sell the contract off to someone else at the change in premium value?
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I've found I trade similar to Mario, although with some different timings (usually worse )
I was already in $250, and $300 LEAPS so don't yet have a place to roll to

Nice going Mario. Keep up the good work
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Mario Kadastik said: ?

Well what I tend to do is to roll up options during days like today. For example I sold my March $225 calls @ $24 (originally bought for $6) and bought $265 calls and some $250 calls so that I had overall a slightly bigger delta than before, but the total cost for the new calls was only ca 60% of the sale value of the $225's. This way I pocketed 40% of cash and my exposure to TSLA didn't change. Then later in the day I sold the $250's as I felt the stock was a bit overextended and bought some $300's. The $250 were up 50% from the earlier buy price and the $300's cost peanuts (~$2.6 a piece) so I only used 25% of the $250 returned money to buy those $300's and my delta reduced slightly. As it came out the $257 (after we hit $259) where I did this was a good time to sell

Overall today I moved my portfolio from 15% cash and up 40% on initial investment to 33% cash and up 97% on initial investment (my cash now is actually 2/3 of the initial investment). In addition my TSLA delta today is higher than yesterday. Go figure I bought more of those $300 calls as TSLA dropped averaging down as I fully expect another squeeze day tomorrow, but even if I lose it all the gain today (~35% compared to yesterdays portfolio value) far outshines this gamble. And basically moving like this constantly allows me to free up cash and reduce risks. If TSLA were to dip now I have the cash to average down on some longer term options. Another option that I used also near the top was to sell Jan 2015 $390 calls to make my Jan $300 calls into risk free call spreads ($300..$390 risk free in January, what's not to like). But as TSLA plummeted somewhat I decided to buy those back at profit and leave myself higher TSLA exposure for tomorrow. Seems today I essentially timed the top quite well. But of course I should really have held onto my yesterday bought $230 calls instead of selling them at $5, $11.5, $14.5 (*sigh*).
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I don't do pure directional trades. So on days like these, I simply complete the construction of my option strategy knowing that no matter what, I will not lose money. I think in general, the forum is going into euphoria with Options now and I feel guilty helping introduce them to people because some have no business playing with the financial equivalent of an atom bomb.

What I am saying is. People who doesn't have at least 3 years of experience in options and are buying far OTM options with their life savings in only one direction. You are gambling. If you are gambling, it is far better for you to take out a huge bank loan and buy stock than to use far OTM weekly options. Same leverage, more control. Playing options as a uni directional bet is a waste of options.
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chickensevil said: ?

I struggled with this today because I feel sentiment is starting to get the better of me. Back when I re-bought in just before the January announcement, I knew it was only a matter of time to hit 200. 200 felt safe. After the announcement I was totally sold going to 200, and bought as much as I could as often as I could and it hit 200 a bit sooner than I could have imagined. Rather than selling as I originally planned, I held on since we still had the Q4. Q4 came out about as great as I expected it to (which was why I held in the first place). Now, here we are still out from a very expected secondary offering, and the uncertainty of the giga-factory. I had said, well if the stock hits 240 I am out... Along comes today, and it just blows past 240 and almost hits 260 today before coming back down. All in the 250s I struggled with the thought... should I sell?

Yes, Tesla is an amazing company, and yes I think that Tesla is going to go places both as a company and as a stock, but let's be honest here, this stock is trading 100% on technicals. I have swallowed a LOT of risk in holding out, and I just don't know if I have the sanity to continue holding. Full disclosure I must sell sometime between now and middle of March... so the question on upside, where is the stock going to go tomorrow? Where is the stock going to go when they announce the factory and offering details? I think I might just ride out tomorrow to see where I feel like a good sell point is, and just let it go. I have already had a 40% return on my whole investment since buying back in, in January.

So honestly, where do you guys feel it might go?
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My 2 cents. And note, I tend to buy and hold stocks, not trade in options. Mostly because I don't have the time and energy to learn options and track stocks like I think an options trader has to.

Stock ownership is betting, pure and simple. In the long run, the value of the stock *should* converge on the fair value of the stock so fundamental analysis makes sense for buy-and-hold types. In the short-run, there's no such guarantees. It's all about perceived value which can be completely divorced from reality. That's where technical analysis can make sense -- it's about analyzing and predicting short-term investor behavior in the absence of any real news.

There's something of an unknown between now and mid-March - the Gigafactory announcement. That could send the price up, down or do nothing depending on how much people have already guessed about the content.

It looks like the last of current dominoes have fallen from the earnings announcement and now we're just waiting for the Gigafactory announcement.

If you want to bet that the Gigafactory announcement will send the stock up, hold and sell a day or two after. If you're afraid that the announcement will be a let-down, sell now.

If you're not sure and are willing to straddle the fence (hedge), sell 1/2 now and the rest after.

Either way, if you're going to have to sell by Mid-March anyway, I'd recommend selling very soon. Reason being that I don't know of any potentially positive news other than the Gigafactory announcement timed to hit before Mid-March whereas unforeseen negative news could hit at any time, driving the price down.
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There's a difference between using options to reduce risk (e.g. hedging), that is, reducing your exposure to price movements, and using options to try to increase exposure to price movements. That said, I think there's a more important difference between gambling and high-leverage investing. If you've done your research and think you have reason to see a change in the underlying stock price, then I think the "increase exposure" use of options makes a lot of sense. At the other extreme, putting your chips on 00 at the roulette wheel is gambling: you don't have any reason to believe 00 is more likely than any other number to show up.

Investing in TSLA or TSLA derivatives because "they always go up" is probably a very risky strategy, though. Nothing always goes up. While TSLA may end up in the 300s by the end of the year, the path there is anything but obvious.
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Causalien said: ?

I don't do pure directional trades. So on days like these, I simply complete the construction of my option strategy knowing that no matter what, I will not lose money. I think in general, the forum is going into euphoria with Options now and I feel guilty helping introduce them to people because some have no business playing with the financial equivalent of an atom bomb.

What I am saying is. People who doesn't have at least 3 years of experience in options and are buying far OTM options with their life savings in only one direction. You are gambling. If you are gambling, it is far better for you to take out a huge bank loan and buy stock than to use far OTM weekly options. Same leverage, more control. Playing options as a uni directional bet is a waste of options.
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I've got a stupid question: how it is possible to construct even a daily options trading strategy that won't lose money? In general, that's the financial equivalent of a perpetual motion machine.

Is it because there are price differences in different options that you can spot and arbitrage?

If that's what you're doing, then I can see why you're saying 3 years experience required, minimum.
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rcc said: ?

I've got a stupid question: how it is possible to construct even a daily options trading strategy that won't lose money? In general, that's the financial equivalent of a perpetual motion machine.

Is it because there are price differences in different options that you can spot and arbitrage?

If that's what you're doing, then I can see why you're saying 3 years experience required, minimum.
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You expect the price to go up and buy OTM calls. Then the price goes up and the calls track the movement up. You have two choices (simplifying) you either sell the calls you bought and take the profit (the move up was always lower on the options in absolute value than the underlying so if you wait until expiry and the stock goes up further you could have gotten more, oh well). Or you sell a higher strike call for the same amount that you bought the original call for. Now you have a risk free spread because you have taken out your initial investment. The difference in the strike prices is your maximum profit if the stock moves higher than the strike price you sold.

Causalien: it's not gambling. If I have limited amount of funds, but I do know that TSLA is going up > 50% probability (post Q4 delivery numbers and pre-ER for example there was very little doubt it'll go up and trigger a squeeze) then buying options that are OTM at various expirations and strikes is a far cheaper way to create a large TSLA exposure in delta. As an example my TSLA exposure right now is at a delta of 750. At the same time my investment in the options is ~$20k. At $20k I could have bought only 100 shares. So I'm leveraging 7.5x for the dollar value.

And I do hedge as well. Making risk free spreads (I have for example a Jan 2016 $140..$225 spread, which is risk free etc), but for a MoMo stock during the MoMo action the rolling of options is more profitable because I can skim 20-30% of the cash out of the trade while keeping the delta. So I keep moving along with the stock, but constantly funnel cash out and without too much need can take all of the initial investment out of the options AND still keep the delta. That's pretty much what I've done right now. I could let the rest of the options ride and not lose anything with regard my initial investment, but I would lose the current value. So I'm likely to start hedging at some point or cashing out some more calls that have run up nicely (I did sell half of my March $300 calls today at 100% profit, bought them yesterday).
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So, to be clear, you can't start with a risk-free spread. You start with an exposed position, and after the passage of time and movement of stock price, take actions that remove the risk and lock in a profit.
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Mario, I am not targeting you directly and just used your posts as a scapegoat. I am worried from all the posts from newbies buying far OTM options that are also asking, at the same time, what will happen to it at certain prices. Indicating that they have not the faintest idea about options. This is the same warning I am giving to people before the Q3 2013 conference call, because exuberance is on this forum again and we are seeing the same trend in the kind of posts that are appearing.

But it also serves as a warning to some of us to re-check our premises. Have we grown reckless? Have we deviated from sound options trading?

- - - Updated - - -

The initial positions are not risk free. My TSLA positions have grown to a Franken option spanning about 20 different positions. I have always constructed them to eventually be able to become risk free on either side. So yesterday, I closed the risk of going down on the bull side and decided to let the time premium collapse until expiration date. i.e. Taken the route of predictable earnings until expiration instead of exposing myself to potentials of upside. It's not a Jedi move. I just decided I am not a pig.

To RCC:
It is possible to construct such a thing that doesn't lose money with a guaranteed return. In a joint investigation before the April 2013 by members on this forum, we latched on to a very particular options activity, the options premium skew in call and put, ~50% interest you can earn if you lend out your shares, members on this forum who's DITM call options were exercised early (which never happens) as well as the short interest higher than float.

I spent a week tracing all the options to eventually discover the reason why this is happening and it turns out that they are all related to an options structure that you can do in which you are guaranteed a 20% return. Which leads to infinite shorting and in turn leads to no shares being available to lend out which in turn leads to the high interest to lend out your shares. It was in the short squeeze thread I believe and is quite an epic journey.
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Guys, it's over.

I am short at app. 258
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Care to give a rundown why you swapped sides?
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Realist said: ?

Guys, it's over.

I am short at app. 258
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jeez, that was fast lol.
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Too far too fast.

Where can it go from here? There has to be some serious profit taking coming up.
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Not an unrealistic stance, but did you forget about the likely upcoming positive NHTSA report? That will probably bump the price even further, unless you are expecting a negative report.
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That alone will not save the day. Everyone expects just that.

This is a company with 30 billion market cap in an extremely capital intense business. I've always been a long term bear for Tesla and I stick to that. Nobody would believe that we could see the final ATH RIGHT NOW. Optimism is on a maximum. Everyone thinks Tesla will disrupt its industry and crush any competition. Every good news is baked in.

I believe from here you can make a lot of money on the short side. Finally.
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It's very unlikely, but you're welcome to try.

The fish are jumping in the boat. Are you allergic to fish? :biggrin:
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keithz said: ?

I found the shorts:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/tesla-enterprise-value-just-25-below-general-motors
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Thanks for that. Needed the comedy in the comments on this very cold day up here.
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You might do o.k. until we start to get closer to Q1 results. Everyone seems to be leaving out the EV credits that will be a large source of revenue in Q1 and Q2. Add that to the increasing profitability of Tesla in general, and Q1 profit numbers are going to look much better than expected, and the stock will jump up again. I hope your timing is good....
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keithz said: ?

I found the shorts:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/tesla-enterprise-value-just-25-below-general-motors
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That must be the holy place where FOX NEWS recruits all their experts.
Actually FOX NEWS reporter sound like tree hugging vegan liberals compared to the folks in the comments there.
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This sounds like a rant rather than a reasoned argument. For example, there is nothing but hyperbole with no data. How can you fulminate about charging efficiency of superchargers and not make a comparison with the huge inefficiencies of ICEs? Charging losses of 15% are quoted for AC charging with a rectifier involved, but it would be interesting to know how that scales up to higher DC voltage charging. Too bad you aren't offering any actual numbers. "Just make your own calculation?" Thanks a bunch. This is less than informative or insightful.

Losses expressed in % are negligible though when compared with the factor of 4-5 drop in energy actually applied to the wheels by an ICE powered car. Could it be that physics and mathematics and the ubiquitous presence of electricity are on the side of electric cars?
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rdalcanto said: ?

You might do o.k. until we start to get closer to Q1 results. Everyone seems to be leaving out the EV credits that will be a large source of revenue in Q1 and Q2. Add that to the increasing profitability of Tesla in general, and Q1 profit numbers are going to look much better than expected, and the stock will jump up again. I hope your timing is good....
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I guess I don't know enough about these credits. Is there something that makes them a once-a-year sort of thing? I assumed they were pretty much continuous.
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I am still short.

It's not over yet.
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Realist said: ?

I am still short.

It's not over yet.
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Interestingly, TSLA has trended steadily up since you posted this. What specifically do you think isn't over -- market correction?
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Realist, I think you called the bottom this time!
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imherkimer said: ?

Realist, I think you called the bottom this time!
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This was a day for the 'shorts'. There will be more good days for Realist, no doubt. I can only hope that there will be more 'long' days, weeks/months.....years, than 'short' ones. Longs and shorts can both make money if they are smart (lucky?). From a personal stand point a day like this hurts, but after the mid Jan to early March run up put my portfolio up close to 100%, I have to accept a day of pain here and there.
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Short covered. Stock is showing some strength here.
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I agree -- I extended my long position today. Bargain prices.
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Back into short at 187.

Finally sentiment turns to the bad.
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I've never shorted a stock so maybe I don't know what I'm talking about but it seems like the time to short TSLA would be when it's above 250. When it falls below 190, I'd see that as a buying opportunity (though I didn't) rather than than time to sell (short). Now it's rising again.

I'm more of a buy-and-hold-good-companies guy so I don't have to worry much about timing. I bought at 90 and then more when it dipped down to 118. Good luck.
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Realist said: ?

Back into short at 187.
Finally sentiment turns to the bad.
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Oops. I shoulda bought at 179...
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ThosEM said: ?

Oops. I shoulda bought at 179...
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Hindsight is 20/20. Always invest based on fundamentals, since you can't possibly get the timing right (consistently).
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I am back in the game.

Long all the way.
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Realist said: ?

I am back in the game.

Long all the way.
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So we have gone back and forth in a couple places about where the bottom might be and the turning point. I would love to hear your input on that subject and your thoughts on what Q3 might be like.
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Realist said: ?

I am back in the game.

Long all the way.
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Awesome thread by the way. I've just started reading it from page 1. Lot's of "deja-vu's"
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teslamotorclub

Thứ Ba, 22 tháng 11, 2016

Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA part 4

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