Thứ Tư, 2 tháng 11, 2016

Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread part 18

  • Feb 8, 2015
    RobStark
  • Feb 8, 2015
    aronth5
  • Feb 8, 2015
    Fanatic
    This can't possibly be all the factory in that envelope.. The link under suggests that it would be over 3500ft long. That building is huge but not that much.
    Tesla Gigafactory: Putting its size into perspective
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  • Feb 8, 2015
    Fanatic
    If we look at this rendering tesla-gigafactory-nevada.png :we see the road leading up to the factory and the road leading away if we compare this to the flight pic you snapped, @doggusfluffy. One could think that it will cover almost all the pad created, the standing steel would just account for like 20% or less of the whole structure. THIS IS SO MASSIVE!
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  • Feb 8, 2015
    vgrinshpun
    Interesting links.

    According to the linked article the Boston-Power cell density currently stands at 200 Wh/kg. Given that cells used in Model S have 233Wh/kg, and assuming an average 7% per year improvement in density, as well as the fact that Model S is being manufactured since 2012, Panasonic cells designed to Tesla specs are about 5 years ahead of what Boston-Power is offering now (using the formula suggested by jhm). Not bad but Boston-Power needs to increase velocity of innovation for a chance to ever catch up:smile:
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  • Feb 8, 2015
    dsm363
  • Feb 10, 2015
    Benz
  • Feb 10, 2015
    JRP3
    I think they are missing some zeros there, unless they are talking about a different building than what was pictured.
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  • Feb 10, 2015
    chickensevil
    I think the 200k is just the cost of the shell. There were a bunch of contracts floating around and work permits that stated various costs. That might be where that number derives from.
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  • Feb 10, 2015
    doggusfluffy
  • Feb 10, 2015
    ecarfan
    Yes clearly that is what the article is referring to.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    JRP3
    milesbatterysystemssiteaerial.jpg
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Krugerrand
    Clearly it's made of gold.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    ScepticMatt
    full image from the shareholder letter
    ... someone forgot to crop the image, lol

    gigafactoryq4ruuo0.png
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Rheazombi
    whose computer is that? They sure look Tesla obsessed. *stares at own revealingly Tesla-obsessed toolbar*
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Banahogg
    From the email name in the screenshot, I'm assuming it's https://www.linkedin.com/pub/kevin-kassekert/5/49b/473 - internal screenshot for the report that was over-included in the report.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    Fanatic
    would be fun to get that username and password:p now i have to live of what the press gives me in terms of foto and video of the progress
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Rheazombi
    everyone knows the secret password is MuskRulez1! :tongue:
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    chickensevil
    We should start a petition to get them to either post a live feed or release updated time-lapse videos every week/month/whatever. I love time-lapse construction videos.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh, and I do love that photo is from the 5th and they put took the screenshot on the 10th! Waiting until the last minute are we? ;)
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    Silly, that was last month's password. Now it's MuskRulez2 ;-)
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    hobbes
    What is that building in the picture?! Gigafactory looks way different and
    is not surrounded by paved roads. Is Tesla constructing two buildings there
    or did the author pick the wrong picture?

    EDIT: O.k., should have read the whole article first:

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  • Feb 12, 2015
    ecarfan
    I think that is correct. I see one road and a rail line. It is very early in the project. I don't know why you would expect to see more roads and structures completed at this point.
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  • Feb 12, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The Q4 shareholder latter said "We remain on plan to begin equipment installation later this year and for the start of battery pack production in 2016, in partnership with Panasonic."

    How do you think this should be interpreted? One way to interpret it is that they will move the battery pack production from Fremont to the Gigafactory in 2016, but continue using imported cells for a while longer. Another way to interpret it is that they will make the battery pack from scratch at the Gigafactory in 2016.

    I think it could easily make sense to start up pack production before starting up cell production. Pack production only requires moving equipment from Fremont, and there's a lot less hassle when it comes to clean-room requirements. Cell production should take a lot more time to get up and running. It needs a lot more equipment, and there's very little margin for error.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    hobbes
    Maybe I was not clear enough, I am not expecting more roads and structures, but the picture looks quite different from the pictures I have seen of the Gigafactory:

    Official Gigafactory pic from ER:
    Screen shot 2015-02-13 at 9.31.37 AM.png

    This is obviously another project, as also stated in the article it comes from:
    attachment.php?attachmentid=71937&d=1423662554.jpg
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    Model 3
    That's my guess to... And one more reason for this: By moving the pack-production out of Fremont, the free some space there to prepare for the Model 3 production, something they need to have done at the time Panasonic delivers cells from the GF.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    RobStark
  • Feb 13, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    It can still be interpreted several ways.

    You might for instance see battery pack production start in Q1 2016, with cell production starting in Q4 2016. And since november, the expectation might have slipped from Q4 2016 to Q1 2017, for that matter. There will probably be a slow ramp-up of cell production, as they work out all the kinks, so for the first few months of cell production, most of the cell demand will probably still be met with imported cells.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    RobStark
    You can parse words ad infinitum.

    Could would maybe possibly might

    At earnings call yesterday Elon confirmed GF is on schedule and maybe slightly ahead.

    Cell production starts in 2016. Whether Jan 1st 2016 or Dec 31 2016.


    Moving cells from the port of Oakland to be packaged in Nevada to be sent back to Fremont makes little sense while you have no production in Nevada.

    Fremont still has massive unused floor space.

    Being opportunistic and buying properties at a good price in the Fremont area and moving in before absolutely necessary makes sense.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    jhm
    This seems pretty clear about cell production in 2016. It leads me to wonder why 30% of cells will be externally sourced at all. One hypothesis is that the cells produced at the GF will only be the lattest technology, highest density cell which will go primarily into automotive packs, and the outsourced cells will be used for stationary storage applications. To the extent that the equipment will be optimized for the latest technology cell, it would not make sense to invest in new machinery optimized for older technology. The text above is also clear that the cells made in 2016 will be for Models S and X, but late that packs may also be for stationary storage applications and may outsource cells. So this at least is consistent with my hypothesis.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    Model 3
    Presumably because Panasonic would not have been with the GF plans without an assurance that their existing factories could still deliver cells. Reckon that in the long term either concludes this section (when there are more GF's up and running) or submit these cells directly into a Tesla factory in Asia (China?).

    That's more or less their stated plan.
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  • Feb 13, 2015
    RobStark
    Because in order to get Panasonic to invest ~$1B in the GF Tesla had to commit to buying Japanese cells made by Japanese workers in Japanese factories.

    This is not a conspiracy theory but pretty much reported in the press and especially in the Japanese press.


    Panasonic was not going to invest $1B in Nevada to remothball two recently reopened Japanese battery plants with recently recalled laid off Japanese workers.
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    Trev Page
    There was a PDF that popped up some time late last year from the submitted permits to Reno for the GF and it showed the time scales for building and production. I saw cell production was slated to begin in July 2015. I'll have to see if I can dig them up or maybe someone still has a link to them??
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  • Feb 14, 2015
    ScepticMatt
  • Feb 14, 2015
    jhm
    Well, it's good to get some clarity on the intention for rhe 30% outsourcing. So if this is just to keep Panasonic plants in Japan working, there are other wasy to do this.

    For example this new home grid storage device could be manufactued entirely in Japan. It really quite within Panasonics wheelhouse to make a finished electronic good. Have we heard anything about where these will be made?

    Certainly as Tesla starts to make cars in Europe and Asia the Japanese supply could be directed there. But I kinds like the idea of building up astationary storage market to absorb capacity with slightly older technology. This sort of option improves capital effeciency. For example, if you have a brand new technology, build a new factory. Five years later, you've got a next generation technology. You could either upgrade your first factory or build a new one. If you've got a strong stationary market for the first factory, then you can make more off your initial investment by diverting its output to the stationary market and opening up a new factory with the latest tech. Five years later, you've got a new third generation tech. At this point the ten-year-old equipment in the first plant may well be due for replacement, so it makes sense to upgrade.

    This does lead me to wonder what density of cell the home grid storage device will use. DemandLogic used 200 Wh/kg, but the Model S is using 250 Wh/kg. I wonder if the new device will use these higher density cells. Next up, the Model X gets say 300 Wh/kg cells. Perhaps the Model S won't get a range upgrade for many years simply because it would cost too much to upgrade 250 Wh/kg at this point in time. This could be why it is important both to build out the GF for 300 Wh/kg production while advancing a storage product to absorb the surplus 250 Wh/kg capacity. Once this surplus is absorbed or upgraded, then the Model S can get new batteries. So we can only hope the stationary market takes off as that will enable Tesla to advance the technology for cars at top speed.
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  • Feb 19, 2015
    Fanatic
    Can't we hire someone to take a cpl of photos every day so we get a little progress reports. My search for new pics is dysfunctional.
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  • Feb 20, 2015
    brandude87
  • Feb 24, 2015
    eepic
    Here is some real estate agent's photos from Feb 15.
    02.15.15 Tesla Gigafactory photos : teslamotors

    A couple of recent developments that may be of interest here:

    Samsung acquires Magna International's battery pack arm SDI News - Read News Articles | Samsung SDI

    Alevo and Customized Energy Solutions partner to deliver 200 MWh of stationary storage to an ISO. It seems like they stick a bunch of batteries into a shipping container as a module that can be deployed, an interesting solution.
    Alevo and Customized Energy Solutions Announce Largest Ever US Energy Storage Deployment - Alevo
    Alevo and Customized Energy Solutions Announce Largest Ever US Energy Storage Deployment | Customized Energy Solutions | CES
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    Benz
  • Mar 3, 2015
    30seconds
  • Mar 3, 2015
    Maknyuzz
  • Mar 3, 2015
    ecarfan
    That is an interesting perspective. I was struck by this text:
    " Each of these businesses - electric cars, road trip recharging, grid storage - could bring Tesla several tens of billions in revenue and many billions in annual profit, should Tesla gain a major player position in the respective market. Success in even one of these businesses would deliver valuation far beyond the current price."

    As enthusiastic as I am about Tesla's long-term prospects, I do not see "road trip recharging" as a revenue stream for the foreseeable future.
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    jhm
    I agree recharging not being a revenue stream. Actually, do not see it as a revenue stream for anyone after about ten years. Electricity is too cheap to sell-per-charge. Rather it can be much more valuable as a marketing inducement. As retail becomes increasingly virtualized, marketers will pay a premium for marketing inducements that can draw customers to specific locations. Right now that is exactly what propels the Destination Charger program. Hotels and other destinations are willing to provide free charging as an amenity or inducement for customers to patronize their business. An apt analogy is free wifi at cafes. It's provided free because it attracts customers. So my prediction is that within ten years free charging will be ubiquitous. Of course, there is room for companies like Tesla to innovate charging solutions that businesses will pay to provide to their customers.
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    palmer_md
    It can be a revenue stream if another manufacturer decides to put supercharger hardware into their vehicle. They'd get possibly $2500 per car that has access to the network. I think that eventually some other car company will opt into the Supercharger network.
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    vgrinshpun
    That is why Tesla is not using this model :smile:. They are having revenue by charging a one time fee.

    I think that by the time other automobile manufacturers decide to build compelling electric cars, rather than just compliance cars, they will fall so far behind, that the only sensible way for them to make a switch (and stay in the business at all) would be to license technology from TM, especially because by that time TM will have global SC network that allows convenient road tripping. Buying into the SC network would most likely require a one time fee, similar to the current model.

    If Google and/or Apple decide to enter the automotive space, it will make a lot of sense for them to buy into the SC network as well. Once again, one time, per car fee model can be used by Tesla to obtain a revenue stream.
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    renim
    If the other manufacturers created alternate standards to compete with the globally consistent and free Chademo standard, why would they be motivated to pay Tesla $2500, when they don't even want a free standard?

    They (automotive SAE Combo backers - don't want EVs, they sure don't want to pay someone else for use of charging standard, PHEVs will suit them just fine.)

    I could envisage Renault or the Chinese using Tesla SC, and higher cost cars like Koenigsegg etc
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    32no
  • Mar 4, 2015
    RobStark

    Tesla's current cell cost is believed to be less than $160/kWh. That corresponds to a unit cost of $1.95 for each 18650 cell capable of storing 12.2Wh.


    http://articles.sae.org/12833/

    The Panasonic cells purchased by Tesla are specifically designed for the automaker and feature a Tesla-patented vent system within the end cap. Battery supplier sources who spoke anonymously estimate Tesla�s cell cost per kW�h to be less than $160.



    I have never seen a quote this low.
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  • Mar 4, 2015
    jhm
    You guys are right about other EV makers potentially buying into the Supercharger Network. This could be for a fee like $2500 per car or for an agreement to install and maintain a certain number of stations and stalls per 1000 new vehicles sold. In the later case, money would not pass hands from SC partner to Tesla, but the network would be expanded and paid for to the benefit of Tesla's customers. But to underscore my thesis, in either case you have businesses supporting nominally free charging because it creates value for their customers and helps sell more product. So this is what I call marketing value. Right now, I believe Tesla is the leading company extracting marketing value off of nominally free charging both with Superchargers and Destination Charging. So they are leading the way, and I am merely extrapolating how many businesses will eventually want to tap this marketing value for their own customers.
    BTW, if Tesla ever wanted to hire me, I would love to develop a whole marketing program essentially to make charging free, fast and ubiquitous for everyone. So Elon, send me a PM, and we can talk.
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  • Mar 7, 2015
    wk057
  • Mar 9, 2015
    tom66
    I'm confused by "Gigafactory pilot" and 20% of full size. Are we seeing the full size GF that Tesla were talking about in the initial PDF, or just what they can get online by 2017?
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  • Mar 9, 2015
    ScepticMatt
    the latter
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  • Mar 9, 2015
    tom66
    Cool, so it will be interesting to see the final factory. I would guess they intend to bring the rest online by 2020 or as orders reflect, wonder how they will manage upgrading the existing facility without too much disruption.
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  • Mar 9, 2015
    mpt
  • Mar 9, 2015
    uselesslogin
    It looks inconclusive as to if the factory is quiet. That is such a weird article. First it says they did the March 3rd field trip to counter negative press. Did Tesla get a heads up from the press that the negative press was coming on the 6th? Second, in digging through the links I see a photo from January with a full parking lot, I found one from February 26th with a not-so-full parking lot. And now the recent one with also a not-so-full parking lot. The one thing I think I see in the 3 photos is progress. The frame seems to keep getting bigger. So am I missing something here? Can someone lay photos together from different dates to show a slowdown in progress of any sort?
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  • Mar 9, 2015
    mpt
    Bob Tregilus is on the ground there, I'd say his input, well, sense of activity, is probably the most compelling piece of evidence. He's photographed empty parking lots in the mid-day. Just seems like a tell of something.
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  • Mar 9, 2015
    JRP3
    It could be simple ebb and flow of construction. That's certainly the way many projects around here seem to progress. A lot of activity for weeks, then days/weeks of nothing, then activity again. Maybe they are waiting on key components.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Article by Randy Carlson on SA with comparative pictures he took. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2982946-teslas-big-battery-building-doom-or-progress

    End of Jan

    1580111-14257802369510365-Randy-Carlson.jpg

    This Sat

    1580111-14257820913919504-Randy-Carlson.jpg
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  • Mar 13, 2015
    Joel
  • Mar 13, 2015
    jhm
    Good to see this aspiration. They author tries to make an equivalence to the Sparks Gigafactory at 35 GWH cell capacity, but fails to recognize the full 50 GWh supply chain capacity.

    Even so, if BYD can grow capacity 6 GWh per year, that would be a tremendous advance for the industry.

    I also wonder if we'll see the stationary storage market heat up. The rest of the auto industry is doing little to create the demand needed to rapidly and massively scale up the battery industry. If the stationary market takes off, that could drive massive scale up, production efficiency, and technology advancement. This would build up an industry that is capable of supporting the transition to EV dominance in the auto industry, even before automakers are fully committed to this path. Thus, stationary can prime the market for sustainable transport.
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  • Apr 19, 2015
    jhm
  • Apr 19, 2015
    austinEV
    Won't be operational until 2020?
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  • Apr 19, 2015
    dhanson865
    They just missed the word "fully". Earlier in the article they say:

    It'll start producing well before then, just won't be completed and producing full capacity until much later.
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  • Apr 19, 2015
    32no
    Based on that satellite image, I estimate that the section currently under construction (with beams laid out) is 420 feet wide by 2050 feet long, or a total of 861,000 square feet on one floor, which is 1,722,000 square feet on two floors. Kimbal Musk tweeted that it is 1.7 million square feet about a month and a half ago.
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  • Apr 20, 2015
    jhm
    Super! And when we're counting both floors, we're looking at 10Msf total, right?
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  • Apr 20, 2015
    Trev Page
    Tesla said the current pilot structure is only 20% of the total finished Gigafactory size 10m square feet is on two levels. I hear concrete flooring has started so close up should be soon after that. Start or machinery installation will happen later this year and into early next year. I can't remember where I saw documentation but I did see leaked PDF files showing first cell production was going to July of 2016. If I find them I'll post them.
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  • Apr 20, 2015
    jhm
    Sounds good. 17% is really close to 20%. Soon they'll be calling up the IBEW union hall to send out the electricians!
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  • Apr 20, 2015
    Auzie
    Couple of interesting attachments, most likely not up to date but still reveal the thinking behind this project

    From TM, Gigafactory

    Slides show batteries recycling process feeding back into raw materials and production start in 2017

    Agreement Panasonic, TM

    One of my old posts that I can not locate had a better pdf attachment, outlining the agreement in more detail
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  • Apr 24, 2015
    evp
  • Apr 24, 2015
    jhm
    Are the cranes gone?
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  • Apr 24, 2015
    rtz
    I'm surprised whatever they are going to skin/wall the building with isn't on site.

    Also it seems like for projects that big; they usually mix concrete on site?
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  • Apr 25, 2015
    Krugerrand
    I'm going with: they like to keep the site spic and span. :smile:
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  • Apr 25, 2015
    dhanson865
    apparently rust isn't a concern with all that uncovered framework.
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  • Apr 25, 2015
    Foghat
    I think the recycling piece doesn't get enough attention. I feel it may be the next really revolutionary step in sustainable transport as well as dramatic cost reductions in vehicle production. JB straubel noted that none of the materials are expended once the pack has reached its useful life. It is just a matter of rearranging atoms in his estimation. Hence, the idea of recycling old batteries and creating new ones from the same materials. I imagine it will be a good twenty years or more before irecyclying in this wayis truly able to see scale, but how incredible would it be if tesla didn't require nearly any new raw materials mined from the earth anymore? They would just take old packs and reprocess them into new ones. Costs in many areas would plummet. So, much innovation coming its mind boggling to me.
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  • Apr 26, 2015
    chickensevil
    Its the desert not like it rains much, haha
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  • Apr 26, 2015
    ecarfan
    Steel will still rust/oxidize in the Reno climate, since there is always some moisture in the atmosphere, but the process will occur more slowly than in a more humid climate.

    I'm sure the building designers and construction project managers have taken that into account.
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  • May 1, 2015
    Benz
    Business Insider UK:

    "Musk said that initially the Powerwall and Powerpack will be made in Tesla's Fremont factory, but as the product line scales, it will be made in the massive $5-billion Gigafactory that the company is building in Nevada.

    And there will be many more Gigafactories, Musk said."

    Did anyone actually hear Elon Musk say this?

    I dis not watch the livestream of the battery-event last night.

    Here comes Tesla's 'missing piece' battery announcement - Business Insider
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  • May 1, 2015
    blakegallagher
    Yes he mentioned that the gigafactory and powerwall and powerpack would all be open patents as well. He envisions many different companies building them all.


    I am not 100 percent positive The words you used were his exact words but he made it very clear there will be many.
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  • May 1, 2015
    MikeC
    Yeah, he referred to Reno as "Gigafactory version 1" and went on to talk about the need for many gigafactories.
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  • May 1, 2015
    DriverOne
    I didn't understand what Elon meant by thinking of the factory as a product, this is version 1. That makes it sound like they will be selling gigafactories? They can't be selling the design, that's open sourced he said. Can someone help me understand?
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  • May 1, 2015
    Gerardf
    As I recall he stated GigaFactory 1, not version 1.

    You can check here : Elon Musk Debuts the Tesla Powerwall - YouTube scroll to time 15.35.

    Correction, at 16.20 he also states version 1 :). However I have the impression he meant the first GF, not version.
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  • May 1, 2015
    pr0teu5
    i think this quote is about how they're approaching the design of the factory, not the marketing of this. Rather than thinking of it as a traditional factory they're thinking about it as a giant machine made for the purpose of building factories. So when new versions of the gigafactory come out they should be radically improved in the same way that second generations of machinery are improved. In many cases when a sucessful factory is built new versions are simply carbon copies of the old one. This won't be the case with the gigafactories.
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  • May 1, 2015
    chickensevil
    The way I took it... anyone could technically make their own factory. Nothing is stopping them. Just the same as you could go and do all the painting, building, electrical work, etc, if you were to build your own home. Yet instead, most people will hire people who have the expertise and experience to do that work for them. So the factory-as-a-product, to me, would mean that Tesla would provide their "services" in helping people establish their own gigafactories.

    That was how I understood it at least, maybe I am thinking wrong here.

    Because the factory isn't just a factory... This is a self-contained thing. It will make it's own power and use that power to turn lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc into a completely finished battery pack for whatever purpose it is being designated for. raw materials in and consumer level finished product out. All without being dependant on the grid, and without impacting the environment in harmful ways.
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  • May 1, 2015
    dhanson865
    I think what he means is:

    1 Global battery production will ramp faster than Tesla can possibly finance
    2 Tesla has the best battery production setup
    3 He'd rather see all the other new battery factories down the line be like his instead of worse
    4 He is putting his money where his mouth is and making it possible for another company to not just reinvent the wheel again to make their battery factory. They can do something better than just mimic him, they'll have access to plans detailed enough to copy exactly.

    If they offer to pay consulting fees he might be willing to accept the money but I think he is also just willing to let execs (plus their team) from large corporations tour his facility and copy exactly without paying.
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  • May 1, 2015
    Foghat
    Elon was saying they will get better with each gigafactory iteration, just like the battery, each gigafactory will be better then the last. Production costs will further go down as well as improved
    machinery/robots products will come out: gigafactory as product.

    So, each gigafactory will be a next iteration product of tesla mind trust. Like iPhone 1 thru 6, gigafactory 1, 2, etc... This will be for tesla owned gigafactories as well as contracted services for other company's Gigafactories. This also may include tesla mass producing gigafactory robots and other associated machinery unique to battery production... Gigafactory as product...

    I think Elon was giving a hint toward another business opportunity: mass producing and selling robots and associated machinery (and intelligence/software service & sales). If hundreds or thousands of gigafactories are going to need to be built to satisfy global demand, this could turn out to be a massive revenue source. Now, I'm getting the feeling this was Elon's under the radar "one last thing" from last nights unveiling.

    Tesla Robotics as the next new product line??
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  • May 1, 2015
    Foghat
    Holy crow... They could also have a cloud based knowledge center that pushes software updates to all machinery in every gigafactory around the world with improved production techniques or new production techniques, instantaneously resulting in improved production costs and quality through the push of a button. Imagine the implications of time saving interation implementation across entire global manufacturing across all industries... I guess Tesla robotics could be bigger then just battery gigafactories.


    Now I know why AI is such an immediate concern for Elon... He might be the one to "summon the demon" if not careful in how he implements this.
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  • May 3, 2015
    jhm
    Gigafactory Financial Modeling

    The gigafactory-as-a-product concept is very intriguing. I would encourage people to revisit the gigafactory financial modeling thread for tools on how to value this. In particular, the off-take agreement concept is relevant to effectively leasing a portion of a GF. Consider Oncor's intent to buy 10 GWh, they may actually do well to structure the deal as an off-take agreement.
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  • May 3, 2015
    MSEV
    TeslaRobotics.com is already taken by someone...
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  • May 3, 2015
    Cattledog
    I have teslamodelx.com but no one has called me to ask if they can have it.
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  • May 3, 2015
    ecarfan
    And what was your motivation for registering that? http://teslamodelx.com/
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  • May 3, 2015
    Cattledog
    I started a blog about my ownership experience with Model S, tried to get teslamodels.com but it was already registered, so I then just created one on wordpress that's in my signature. I was pretty active in it for the first couple years but have admittedly waned the last year. I got teslamodelx.com at the same time thinking I'd do the same when I got my model X (which was forecast by Tesla as 'late 2013' at the time). Still waiting for the car so the blog has never started up.
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  • May 5, 2015
    chickensevil
    Not really the best thread for this, so I'll post the longer discussion over on the website discussion section... but suffice it to say, someone at Tesla had registered something like 600+ domain names starting from like 2003 all the way to current with the vast majority happening in 2007 and 2014. The old registered email address for all of them was [email�protected]... I say it in the past tense since it has all changed now to [email�protected], which was likely in light of the recent social engineering attack and DoS/Defacement/DNS Hijack/whatever-you-call-it... Anyway, I'll post more details over in this thread: All Discussion re: Tesla Motors Website Forums
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  • May 10, 2015
    FluxCap
  • May 10, 2015
    AlMc
  • May 11, 2015
    VolkerP
    50% larger means, they must add one floor.
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  • May 11, 2015
    jhm
    That's a cool idea. I suppose that would do it from a floor space point of view. I would expect that the plant will be laid out with lots of parallel production lines. So if the dimensions are already optimal for the length of a production line integrating first and second floors, then a third floor might throw this off. So they may need to make it longer in the dimension that sets out more parallel lines.

    From the outset I have wondered if they simply anticipated the need to build out multiple GF building in this same campus. If so, the extra capacity could just be half of another building. It will be interesting to see how this works out.

    Has there been any reaction from Nevada? This could mean another 3250 jobs for the area. Take that, Texas Auto Dealers.
    �
  • May 12, 2015
    vgrinshpun
    If foundation/structure can bear it, it would be better to add two floors, even if one floor kept vac and for a while. Incremental cost would be very reasonable.
    �
  • May 13, 2015
    hobbes
    Hm... don�t really believe they are going to take the roof off that was already built.
    Seems more likely to me that they�ll add more to the sides, as the building is meant
    to be modular in that dimension anyway as far as I understand.
    �
  • May 13, 2015
    AlMc
    I am not an engineer but adding height (weight) may not be feasible based on the load handling ability of the steel already in place. I suspect expansion is as you have predicted.
    �
  • May 13, 2015
    Theshadows
    Building code wise there is quite a difference between three floors and four.
    �
  • May 13, 2015
    pmadflyer
    Civil Engineering student here. when designing a structure, one takes into account the forces of maximum predicted loads and load combinations (ex: wind + rain + dead load + live load + earthquake), and then designs a structure that can withstand all load cases plus a safety margin. This is because steel is never uniformly strong, a column that is cooled or handled slightly different at the mill might already be stressed before even being erected. While these safety margins might allow a third floor to theoretically be supported, there must still be a certain safety margin above this to meet code.

    It is likely that the factory will be extended horizontally or utilized differently within the currently planned dimensions rather than vastly increasing cost to build higher vertically. As said above, once you start going up, the code requirements, and construction costs sky-rocket. It's far easier to lift more steel 72 feet vertically (GF roof height), than it is to lift the amount of steel needed for another level an extra 35 feet. Since the steel required to support the extremely heavy equipment is already so large, the added height and weight would require larger cranes and more critical picks. larger cranes, with more line parts (more pulleys) are also slower, and more expensive to operate.

    If I recall correctly, Tesla bought an extremely large piece of land, far larger than the factory. Perhaps some will be utilized for large satellite factories, in addition to the satellite factories that may be run by suppliers on the GF land (pad already cleared nearby for this purpose).
    �
  • May 13, 2015
    favo
    From Tesla posts 30 job openings for gigafactory

    �
  • May 15, 2015
    c041v
    I'll try to knock off a few at once;

    I doubt they could find cranes big enough to economically add another floor. Land is cheap, they'll build outwards.

    Concrete is sometimes mixed on site, but I would doubt that to be the case here, you'd see a Batch Plant and some Sizable Aggregate piles and given that it's Nevada, probably a facility that can hold/produce ice or Liquid Nitrogen. Local concrete companies do this very efficiently, and besides there's very little concrete work left to do. This is a structural steel building, not precast. All the concrete is under the steel and buried in sand.

    Cladding will come in later, it'll probably be thin gauge steel. Not sure what sort of insulation they'll need. No harm for that steel to sit exposed for a long time. Nevada's is nowhere near and ocean and the relative moisture in the air is low. why do you think they store old planes in the desert? Low moisture.

    What is a bit puzzling is that their appears to be very little activity on site. I don't see any sort of HVAC/Utilities (Aside from a few sections of pipe) or other Mechanical systems being installed. I would have expected all sorts of things sitting around, especially some of the larger components that can only be installed while everything is open. It all just looks very... quiet and more like a warehouse than a factory at this point.
    �
  • May 16, 2015
    chateauoaks
    Hey, Kids, you are all over thinking this. The way you double output is not by expanding outwards or adding a third level.

    You double or even triple production by adding a second or even a third shift of workers. This is what they are running the numbers on, not more steel. lol!
    �
  • May 18, 2015
    Fanatic
    cWyzyOS.jpg
    From the drone 4k flyover. Concrete work has started and has gone quite a bit. Note color differences and the rebars that has been laid. Looks like the first floor is done in the middle.
    �
  • May 18, 2015
    pmadflyer
    Looks like the interior columns are being painted white also.
    �
  • May 18, 2015
    chickensevil
    Well thanks for pointing these things out, cause to me it had looked like there wasn't any progress at all from the last time someone took shots of the place.
    �
  • May 18, 2015
    Fanatic
    just so big that the progress it's lost within the complex.
    �
  • May 19, 2015
    kenliles
  • May 19, 2015
    jhm
    Gigafactory 0.25, I wonder if this would have 12.5 GWh output.
    �
  • May 19, 2015
    32no
  • May 19, 2015
    doggusfluffy
  • May 20, 2015
    chickensevil
  • May 20, 2015
    RubberToe
    Isn't the idea of "whole separate buildings" a requirement given that they want to start producing batteries from the first building before the second one is finished? You really don't want to start manufacturing in a building that has a gaping hole in one end.

    RT
    �
  • May 21, 2015
    austinEV
    yeah, they will be independent mini factories, or at least THIS part will be. It could be that this quarter will be independent to get equipment and engineers to work asap to make their end of 2016 deadline and also start learning asap. It is an open question if it will be 4 mini factories, or 1 mini and a 3/4 big factory or something else.
    �
  • May 23, 2015
    doggusfluffy
    Using that rectangle pad as the reference...it looks like major progress since the drone video.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA0EuVZWsAAakDS.jpg:large
    �
  • May 23, 2015
    austinEV
    What are we going to do with ourselves once the outside is all done and the work is all inside?
    �
  • May 23, 2015
    Cosmacelf
    What, you can't fly a drone indoors? :)
    �
  • May 23, 2015
    austinEV
    Well you can... relevant xkcd
    �
  • May 23, 2015
    doctoxics
    Looks like this picture predates the drone video based on the extent of steel work on the first four sections. Of interest is that the steel work on the fifth section appears to have disappeared by the time the drone video was taken.
    �
  • May 25, 2015
    dauger
    A new study by Lux Research showing, even as everyone's costs decrease, how the Gigafactory will extend Tesla's lead in battery costs:

    Here's how Tesla batteries will beat the competition - MarketWatch

    I find the $/kWh graph intriguing. Two takeaways:

    1. Place a horizontal ruler across these graphs, and by my estimate Tesla's prices will be at least 4 years ahead of its competition, e.g., around 2025 the closest competitor will reach Tesla's 2020 $/kWh internal price. Later for others like Nissan.
    2. Little differences add up over time, giving Tesla Model 3 higher margins than its competition which Tesla can use to grow production faster than anyone else.

    The next decade will be very exciting to watch. Pass the popcorn!
    �
  • May 25, 2015
    Johan
    I'd take anything Lux research says with a BIG pinch of (Lithium-Cobalt) salt. They are just guesstimating like the rest of us. If you look historically their prognoses haven't exactly been spot on. They're kind of like those stock analysts who constantly raise or lower their one year price target to be about +20% of the current stock price.

    I too could take publicly available data and plot it and then draw linear progression lines in to the future in fancy colors.
    �
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