Thứ Ba, 1 tháng 11, 2016

Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing part 22

  • Dec 18, 2015
    fluxemag
    I think the compression is normal. There is a huge market of people who want a Tesla and can't afford one. A two year old Model S in any shape or form is going to appeal to buyers in the $30-40k range, propping up the low end. On the high end, you have people dumping a 3 month old P85D for a P90D just because they're loaded. And for a large portion of the population, a 100 mile range would be perfectly acceptable, so battery size isn't all that significant to them. -From a biased S40 owner
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    Drucifer
    There also were a lot few S60s made and the S60 buyers seem to be trading them in much more slowly. If the market were awash with 60s and there were few 85s, you would see much different pricing.
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    kf93
    wow, tons of 85's and P85s in the 50-55 range now. Of course ordering now would probably ensure I win the carbon exchange raffle at the end of the month.
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    bigbear
    How many tickets did you buy
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    Tamar
    Not that we're in the market for a second Tesla (yet), but I still watch Hank's site, and I'm surprised by how few CPOs have next gen seats (except for the P85Ds). That is one of the first things I would look for after driving ours for 5 months...before even the pano roof.
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    bigbear
    How come?
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    Twiglett
    Holy smoke batman!
    There are over 400 cars on CPO right now, 50-60 less than 60K, where the heck did they all appear from?
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    Wshowell
    Tesla appears to be flooding the market. I'm seeing 85s fully loaded but high mileage in the $44k range and cars vanishing and being replaced very quickly. Maybe Hank can provide some statistics to validate what I think I'm seeing. It's like watching the S&P 500 these past two days, sell sell sell!
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    bigbear
    Anyone having trouble getting the website to load
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Tesla's, or mine?

    I think they've been slowly adding new cars all day today.
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    bigbear
    Teslas
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    And those two beautiful Sig Red P85s are now gone. :(
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    Twiglett
    Your's has been loading happily for me today, no problems :biggrin:
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Once I'm done working on the Applique Controller app, I plan to start enhancing EV-CPO with some basic reporting, like cars added/removed per day, etc -- similar to how the reports look on the Firmware tracker.

    And if I get inspired, I really want to do a multiple-regression analysis on the sold cars to see what factors most influence price, and how that may have changed over time.
    �
  • Dec 18, 2015
    FredTMC
    Down to only 20 "inventory" (new) cars left on the US tesla site. Not sure if they'll add more or not. Once Dec delivery cutoff for custom orders went away, these cars have sold very quick
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    freeewilly
    I look Tesla's CPO site many times a day since it launched in April, my plan was to buy a MS in December because I predict the price will drop after Model X release and year end push to sell more cars.
    I bought mine in August because every MS on CPO site keep saying "buy me, buy me", and my fat finger couldn't resist. I regret a tiny little bit because if I waited, I will be able to buy a S85 or P85 with more options.
    On the other hand, if I waited I will miss my smile whenever I open my garage door since August.
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    clarkbariowa
  • Dec 18, 2015
    andrewknight
    Long time lurker but I pulled the trigger today when this beauty popped up this afternoon!

    2013 P85 18,805 miles $56,000

    Silver Metallic Paint
    All Glass Panoramic Roof
    21" Silver Wheels
    Black Performance Interior
    Carbon Fiber D�cor
    Supercharging
    Twin Chargers
    Tech Package
    Active Air Suspension
    Sound Studio Package

    The only option I had to compromise on was the 21's, would have preferred 19's but I can always swap them out. Hank, thanks for the great site it was very helpful in my search the last couple weeks! This is going to be a huge upgrade from my Nissan LEAF! :)

    Andrew
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    Cyclone
    I was looking at that very car. I am doing a road trip to Miami tomorrow and I was going to swing by the store that sold me my car in May and get a trade-in quote for that very car. Congratulations Andrew!!
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    alphabravo
    Do most people who've bought these vehicles travel to the location to physically look at the car before purchasing?

    Without posting actual pictures, it is impossible to know what condition the vehicle is actually in but it still seems to me that some people 'order blind'? I'm considering making a purchase but need to travel a long way to get to the nearest location and it seems that the vehicles move quickly - I would need to fly to take a look.
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    andrewknight
    I bought mine blind today which I am a little nervous about but the local Tesla team has assured me that I will not be disappointed. Worst case scenario is if when the car shows up for delivery and it is a mess I am out the deposit and delivery charges. So far I think most people have been pretty impressed with the level of refurbishment and end quality of the cars. The P85's < $60k average only 1 day on the market
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Congrats!!
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    alphabravo
    Wow. 1 day! Definitely not enough time for me to fly around 'umming and ahhing'!

    Congrats on the purchase! I will be in the same position as you so please let us know what you think when it arrives!
    �
  • Dec 18, 2015
    freeewilly
  • Dec 18, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    The last several nights there have been tons of car movements off and back on their site. It usually stabilizes after about 3am ET, but between 12 and 3, it's s hot mess.
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  • Dec 18, 2015
    thgchris
    As of 10:20 PM when I click the link I still see the car but the features aren't listed. Are the features disappearing the precursor to the vehicle being completely removed from the site? I know when the car is for sure sold when it just redirects to the CPO site.

    I've had to push back my test drive 3 times now. Finally going in on Monday to drive an MS. Only been in a roadster.

    I'm leaning towards one of these $50's P85's and then slapping some winter tires on to counteract the no AWD.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    MsElectric
    Congrats! The P85s that are now selling in the $50Ks is a tremendous value. The Tesla CPO market is now settling where it should.

    FWIW CPO cars should be delivered to you in pretty good condition and they are pretty much required per CPO guidelines to fix anything that is not right so the key is when they present the car, go over it very carefully and take your time. Just to be on the same side I would take it to a high end body shop to make sure the paint is fine and there are not shoddily fixed accident or paint damage anywhere in the car.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    Cowby

    i cry too sometimes when i see better optioned cars pop up now....then i look at my Sig. Red and feel a little better...lol
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    FredTMC
    Is CarFax useful not a tesla? Prior accidents, etc. just curious.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    bigbear
    could you post that document?
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    Tamar
    For me, the next gen seats feel much more luxurious and comfortable. The other seats might as well be a bench. This is a matter of personal preference. When I gave a friend a ride she said she had been in a Tesla once before and her impression had been "not very comfortable", but something was different with my car. I didn't tell her mine had upgraded seats, and she still noticed a difference.

    I bought an inventory car, and next gen seats weren't listed on the cut sheet, so I didn't go into the purchase thinking I was buying them, but I'm sure glad that's how the car arrived!
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    andrewknight
    That is really good to know. I think I definitely need to go in with the mindset of not being shy about pointing out everything that I feel is not up to the standards Tesla has set.

    Andrew
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    andrewknight
    Good question. I just asked my CPO adviser about this and he sent the Carfax over (no issues!) He also said that a full service history report would be provided at delivery with the prior owners personal information removed.

    Andrew
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
    How did he get a loaner car since he wasn't officially an owner yet?
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    Wshowell
    I'm assuming snce they had his deposit they were comfortable with providing him with a loaner. I don't think this is unusual for Tesla. I received a call from the local SC last month and offered an extended test drive even though they know I'm not buying until 2016. I was going on a 350 mile business trip and provided a 2015 90D Friday at 10 AM. Left our Honda Pilot at the lot and headed S to LA, charged in Ventura. Stayed at the hotel (Westin LA has an HPWC) Friday night. Saturday did my event while my wife took the car out shopping for the day with our kids. After my business concluded, dropped off colleague at LAX, went out for a nice dinner and headed N. Dropped it off at the SC at 9 PM and did the night key fob drop and painfully fired up the ICE engine to head home. It was the best real world test drive I could ask for besides having it for me time. I, of course was very relieved to return it in the exact same condition it was provided to me in.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
    So it's got an "E" pack! Amazing. And my delivery specialist assured me that they would not be replacing with the original "A" pack.

    3860956fc80e739e8d2b506686e0d66c.jpg
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
    Took delivery of my Sig P85!! S00096! :)

    de2b215bac84cfd21cd4b8a57f9bfd4a.jpg
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    bigbear
    Please explain the pack letters
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    bigbear
    That. Is. Beautiful.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
    I'm probably not the best to explain, but there is an "E" at the end of the part number. Basically as I understand it, they are revision numbers. "A", "B", et cetera

    Here is higher res of photo.

    1a8a5521f6ef4afa21c71bab2419d993.jpg
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    alphabravo
    Looks perfect from the outside! Did they do a good job ensuring that the interior is in tip-top shape (for a used MS)?
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    bigbear
    wait, what's the deal with the bird?
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    DougH
    Needs gray 21's :cool:
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
    The outside is immaculate. Except for one blemish on the rear bumper.

    Interior is perfect except for the rear view mirror, which they are replacing at a later date.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
  • Dec 19, 2015
    bigbear
    He seems to have a really good life and now that he has a Tesla life is only going to get better.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
    Yeah. He has it pretty good....
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    JenniferQ
    LOVE that Sig Red!
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    miamibeacher
    Us too!! We didn't look for any specific options. My wife has only ever had maroon colored cars. So, signature red it is!
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    Electric Joe
    Bigbear, there are lots of other threads about pack revisions, but the gist is that the original "A" battery pack is limited to about 90kW charging rate, meaning that supercharging is slower for an A pack than for the later revisions. Miamibeacher totally lucked out because he bought a signature edition car, one of the first few made, and one that certainly had an A pack in it at time of manufacture, but somehow got a free upgrade to an E pack. That's a bit of great fortune! I think his parrot might be good luck.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    DougH
    Once again the cars are leaving the site.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Yeah, every night it's the same.

    They'll be back.
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    tga
    I just got 12 re-alerts (ie, cars that had been listed prior, removed, and re-added)
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    JenniferQ
    How do you sign up for the alerts? Thanks
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  • Dec 19, 2015
    tga
    A premium subscription to HankLloydRight's site, ev-cpo.com.

    IMHO, manditory reading for anyone in the market for a CPO.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    DougH
    It would be awesome if they were lowering prices when they are pulled and re-added but there are no changes :confused:
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    I'm working on stopping that from happening. At this point, I'm not sure why Tesla is removing all their cars and then adding them back 25 minutes later, but that's what triggers the alerts.

    I know. I'm working on a solution for that.
    �
  • Dec 20, 2015
    bigbear
    Maybe they are trying to mess with you specifically.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Possibly.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    bigbear
    The Tesla salesman here in Austin told me to use your site, said it was better than Teslas. It sounds like you're getting some traction.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    Cyclone
    I've heard a number of stores say that. Which is likely why at one point Tesla approached him. I for one recommend they check out Hank's site for specific cars and Tesla's site just to become aware of the program (which they can do by clicking the link from Hank's site).
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Hmm...interesting.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    mrjedistud
    Hank. I was at an event in Long Island with Jeremy Snyder the general manager for the US north east. Even there someone from tesla made reference to your site.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    Cowby
    I'm like super jealous!!!
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    MsElectric
  • Dec 20, 2015
    tga
    I wasn't complaining about the re-alerts, just confirming your "They'll be back" statement.

    As long as it's not too much difficulty, and we keep getting re-alerts on price changes, that sounds like a good idea.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    alphabravo
    This is what I've been waiting for! P85's under $60k is going to have me in the drivers seat very soon. Still going to wait and see if there is an increase in this type of inventory as MX deliveries speed up and maybe have some people offloading 2014 MS's.

    Good signs all round though.
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  • Dec 20, 2015
    thgchris
    Do you think that before end of December is better or think January is better? What does last year tell us price wise?
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    There was no 'last year' for CPO.

    ;)
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    cab
    Man, I wish there were some cars in the new blue color out there. I had hoped even an inventory car would have shown up by now. It is the color I really want (the red being my second choice). My wife and I were out Saturday and spotted one (Dallas, so they are more rare than you think) and it would be the "no brainer" color for me. In reality, it will likely take another 15-18 months before the CPOs show in my price range for that color...dang first world problems!!!
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    MorrisonHiker
    We visited the Lone Tree, CO gallery on Saturday and there are several "new blue" inventory cars available. My friend almost ordered one that was located in Portland but then he decided to go for a different one in California instead.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Don't go by just what's on Tesla site or EV-CPO -- call your local stores/galleries for specific requests -- they have many more cars than what are listed. Especially for Inventory cars, I think the are just listing the bottom of the barrell to move them out faster.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    Jo-
    Confirmed the "Missouri" location is the new Kansas City store.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    I'm seeing a huge dump of Inventory vehicles and price drops coming across -- averaging about $5k.

    Those with Premium access to EV-CPO can see them now. If not, you'll have to wait until 5pm to see them.

    For instance, 81 P90Ds now listed and 61 P85Ds.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    Electric Joe
    There are 594 US listings right now! For most of the CPO program from April until now we saw about 200 cars listed at one time. Wow. And there are 53 cars listed under $60,000. A few months ago we were seeing maybe one per week under $60k, and those would disappear almost immediately. Time to go shopping, folks! If you're looking for one of the rare brown or green colors there are lots of those as well. And really, if you're interested enough in this stuff to read this monstrous thread, toss a few dollars to Hank and enjoy the premium subscription. It's worth it for the entertainment/educational value even if you aren't ready to buy.

    It strikes me as funny that this list of current CPO cars ranges in price from $45,900 to $142,550 -- more than a 3x price difference -- and most people seeing the lowest and highest priced cars parked side-by-side would be unable to tell that one is better than the other.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    MorrisonHiker
    Thanks for the heads-up, Hank.

    BTW, I found a 70D over the weekend on Tesla's site that had location of "unknown". It never showed up on ev-cpo. I'll check my history and see if I can track it down.

    Ooh. I just refreshed see there are at least 25 non-performance Ds available. :biggrin:
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    mmd
    Where is that guy FredTMC who was counting 20 inventory cars? He needs to wake up and recount these :)

    While it is a good sign that Tesla is finally pricing these a bit more realistically to clear out its inventory, the listed S60 prices still seem very high. When a new S70 costs under $60K after tax credit, IMO the non-AP S60s with decent miles on them should really be $30-40K.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    dhanson865
    Is BT70 supposed to be S70?
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Yes.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    DougH
    Dang that's a huge dump of D's. This is great with the price drops, that just means mid next year they will be way cheaper.
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    And now 23 cars just removed.

    I doubt they sold 23 cars in an hour.
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    mmd
    Were they all removed at exactly the same time? Since a lot of 85Ds and 90Ds showed up in this dump, there could've been a surge in buying.
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    3mp_kwh
    Um, are we nearing 3, or 4, out of every 5 non-new Teslas being offered by Tesla? I get some of their reasons, but this gets nerve-wracking. It could be over-production, before the X-ramp fills order, after order. Can Tesla do more than 1:1 Model X : Model S?
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    The site is periodically polled, so between pollings the cars were removed and captured upon the next polling.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    FredTMC
    I just soiled myself... :eek:
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    mrjedistud
    P85 prices are creeping up again. Looks like about $5,000 higher this week versus last week.
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    Electric Joe
    Funny you you should say that. I put down a deposit on a P85 last week and am waiting for it to be prepped for me to come pick it up. In the meantime the 'paperwork' on the My Tesla site showed the price went up $5,100 over what Tesla was asking for it last week! I called my Owner Advisor and he fixed the price problem but it seems that they were raising prices last night and my car's price was adjusted by mistake.
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    supersnoop
    And yet there was a P85 listed at $42,500 today. Many seem to be going down lately.
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  • Dec 21, 2015
    mrjedistud
    hey snoop do you recall the details. I'm surprised I didn't see that one.
    �
  • Dec 21, 2015
    mmd
    All I remember is that it was ~45k miles.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Odd, since the P85s weren't selling that fast before the price hike.
    We had 598 cars listed in the morning, and now it's only 156! Doubt so many sold in one day. The whole CPO program appears to be running on some random autopilot :)
    �
  • Dec 22, 2015
    tga
    You looked in the middle of the nightly remove/re-add process. There are 502 US listings now.
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  • Dec 22, 2015
    supersnoop
    No tech package. It was an early vin.
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  • Dec 22, 2015
    cab
    Funny that I was just complaining there were no cars in the new blue...and this morning there are half a dozen inventory cars listed. Prices aren't awesome, but at least they are appearing!
    �
  • Dec 22, 2015
    Xpress
    Now there is 1 car listed - 500 sold in one day - wow!!!! :eek:
    �
  • Dec 22, 2015
    Cyclone
    Lately Tesla has removed and reloaded many of the listings each night. What you are seeing is the temporarily come off. They will be back in a few hours.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    tga
    Hank, I think something's wrong - 0 cars on ev-cpo, but they still show on Tesla's page.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    DMage
    They are all on the hidden list now, probably something changed with how Tesla updated their page last night...
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  • Dec 23, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    I'm working on it. Tesla changes their HTML on those pages quite a bit. Looks like they're preparing to offer lease terms for certain cars right on the CPO site.

    Should be fixed in an hour or so.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    mrounds
    Interesting, at the bottom of each location page it says 'All Tesla lease payments shown assume a 36 month, 12,000 mile per year lease with no security deposit. 10,000 mile and 15,000 mile per year leases are also available.' Leasing CPOs now? They're making this wait until the March Model 3 unveiling very difficult.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    bigbear
    What's the monthly payment going to be like?
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    mrounds
    Not sure, going to make some calls this morning and see what the deal it. I'll post back once I know more.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    The lease offerings are only for Inventory cars.

    The down payment and monthly payments are displayed on the TM CPO site for each car.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    SmartElectric
    How strange. Was just browsing an Ohio car to see what's new on Tesla's site and saw this quote :

    Ref:
    85 kWh Model S P78600 | Tesla Motors

    " EV incentives are based on registration in Ontario."

    Um. I'm browsing a US car, and it's telling me about Ontario incentives?
    The icon on the bottom of the site showed US flag, so I know I wasn't browsing the Canadian site.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    HankLloydRight
    Their site auto-detects your location (to the country+state level) to display the proper incentives.

    Guess they didn't think about Canadians browsing US cars. ;)
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    MorrisonHiker
    Maybe someone fat-fingered the data for the state/province and entered OH instead of ON.

    Oops. I think I misunderstood the original post. Hank's reply is probably better than mine. :redface:

    When I view it from Colorado, it subtracts out the $13500 in federal and tax credits.
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    dhanson865
    Cheapest I've seen so far

    P08514 2013 S60 $43,800
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    DCAC
    Two were cheaper, a P85 and S85. Thanks ev-cpo.com subscription!
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    mmd
    Really? Care to disclose the prices? Those must be real steals.

    I found that someone claimed the cheapest S60 at $42,900 in August, and even created a thread on this.
    I Hit The CPO Lottery! Lowest S60 to Date?
    �
  • Dec 23, 2015
    supersnoop
  • Dec 24, 2015
    MsElectric
  • Dec 24, 2015
    mmd
    A CPO with just 1246 miles? And the car was made in 2014 too. If this Ebay seller bought the CPO himself from Tesla, he probably bought it cheaper to make some profit.
    I clearly don't understand these buyers!
    �
  • Dec 24, 2015
    tga
    I doubt that's a "real" (ie, Tesla) CPO - I think it's "certified" by the seller only ("3000 mile Lone Star Certified Pre-Owned Limited Warranty"). The seller is a used car dealer in the Houston, TX area.
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  • Dec 24, 2015
    MsElectric
    That car was not an official Tesla CPO but it would still be covered under the Tesla warranty for about 3 years. $87K is a great deal for a 2014 P85D and likely where the CPO prices are going to be next year.
    �
  • Dec 24, 2015
    tga
    Not disputing that. Clearly covered under original warranty. But the ebay listing says "Certified pre-owned", which is misleading (at best). "Certified" by a random used car dealer ain't with spit.
    �
  • Dec 25, 2015
    mrjedistud
    Looks like the fire sale in cpo cars is over. The prices seem to have jumped back up. Someone previously said that there was a $5100 increase. That number seems pretty spot on.
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  • Dec 25, 2015
    davidc18
    No worries on the prices, they are only heading in one direction.
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  • Dec 25, 2015
    mmd
    Many of the P85+ and P85 are still showing ~$20k price drops. Like P48065, down to $79,400 from original price of $105,000. Or P41960, at $79,700 from $108,000.

    As an investor, I wonder about the implication of these prices on how Tesla accounts for the value of its inventory. Price drops like that could mean bigger write downs. And wonder, if increasing the selling prices helps the value of the inventory for accounting.
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  • Dec 25, 2015
    DougH
    48065 is a pretty good deal if you want a car without AP. Any car without/AP is not going to be that desirable in the future thus dropping it's value even farther.
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  • Dec 25, 2015
    SmartElectric
    Tesla has some of the best margins in the industry. The CPO inventory is generated from "trading up". So, at 25% margins, they could still discount inventory models below current levels. Remember, they made 25% on the original sale, and another 25% on the sale of the new car, so selling a CPO for reduce price is still a good option considering they made perhaps $50K margin/profit on the sale of three cars (original, then selling CPO, and new car).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Price drops of ~$10K on some of the remaining P85 inventory starting to look good.

    Here is the lowest price ever in Canada:
    85 kWh Signature Performance Model S
    2012 60,650 km S02053
    Located in Montreal
    $72,900

    That is like $53K US, and this for a fully loaded car (pretty much every option including dual chargers).
    �
  • Dec 26, 2015
    mkjayakumar
    As of today, the cheapest CPO with Autopilot - 85 kWh & 7K miles - is priced at $69.4K. A new one with identical configuration would be $75K (after $7500 fed tax credit). Effectively a $5k savings with a 7k miles on the ODO.

    Worth it?
    �
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