Mar 12, 2015
Yggdrasill In my opinion the Model S interior isn't very different from what you get on an entry-level BMW/Mercedes/Audi. But you are of course entitled to your opinion, as am I.
�
Mar 12, 2015
RobStark
I really don't think it does. Matter to Elon.�
Mar 12, 2015
matbl I have another idea that I want to float to see what other think of it in terms of increasing european demand. This is for increasing demand, as long as Tesla is production constrained, it doesn't matter.
What about a S85- (or whatever you want to call it) that has significantly less power than a S85 and then also a lower price?
Either just software limited (cheap to make) or just mount the new rear motor that's in the S85D and not the front one (more expensive initially but probably better margin).
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Entry level in what class? In BMW-speak, 1-, 3- 5- or 7-series?
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I think the 3-series to compare with for europe is the 318d or 320d.
318d starts at $36k (33750 EUR) in germany if we're talking european demand and not only norwegian.�
Mar 12, 2015
Yggdrasill I'm not sure if I would consider the BMW 3 series a very significant competitor in Norway. If your goal is to sell as many Model 3 as BMW 3-series, Tesla will sell far fewer Model 3 than Model S! In 2015, the Model S was the 5th most popular car - the BMW 3-series wasn't in the top 20.
No, the biggest competitors of the Model 3 in Norway will be reasonably priced family cars like the Golf and Focus. Both of which are very popular as station wagons, btw.
Pickup won't sell. No way. The only people you see driving pickups are construction workers and the occasional Amcar-fan. And these groups don't generally like electric cars.�
Mar 12, 2015
Runarbt
The only problem is, this wont have the same margin for Tesla. If they limit the output, or put in a smaler motor.. the cost to produce the car would be the same I assume.
The only thing they do, is sell the car with less profit.
I think this is what model 3 is for. The less expensive, but still high maring, Tesla to increase sales above and beyond ....�
Mar 12, 2015
Matias Is Tesla paying 10% import duty to EU area?�
Mar 12, 2015
matbl No (as far as we know). They disassemble the cars somewhat before import and then reassembles them in the netherlands.
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The smaller motor is probably cheaper. But you're right, increasing demand will reduce margin.�
Mar 12, 2015
Matias Ok. That important duty is pretty easy to avoid, if that's enough.�
Mar 12, 2015
smac When new.
After a few months, unlike the BMW, the Tesla will sound like a 10 year old mini-cab.
It might be something to do with the temperature ranges the plastics experience, I guess mine has seen swings between -5c and +30c, but so have the BMWs / Mercs / Audis we have on fleet which don't seem to suffer the same issue.
This really is something Tesla need to focus on for the UK market, constantly getting the service center to fix cabin noises really isn't sustainable.
Next time you are sat in an Audi, simply push the dash and see what happens. Try the same in a Tesla and the difference in quality is plain to feel. Visually very similar first glance quality, but definitely not built to the same robustness!�
Mar 12, 2015
Yggdrasill I was thinking ~3 series. (Though I have more experience with entry-level Audis and Mercedes.)�
Mar 12, 2015
matbl Ok. Then I can somewhat agree with you. I was thinking more BMW 5-series, Audi A6 or Mercedes E-class (or even BMW 7-series) since that's more equivalent in size and somewhat close price wise as well (except in norway).�
Mar 12, 2015
30seconds you guys must get some really nice entry level BMWs in Europe. The 1,2,3 and 5 series I have been in get lots of hard plastic on the dash, no signs of alcantra on dash or roof, non digital dash and traditional sized sunroof.�
Mar 12, 2015
smac I guess we do
Tesla got me the latest 520d as a loaner, and I have to say I was impressed. On motorways at 70+ mph, their is very little difference in comfort, or noise level. I wouldn't say the interior materials were made of hard plastics, and it too had a glass dash (admittedly a hybrid one, as the dials are traditional needles but the effect's the same seeing as you can't customize the dials on the Tesla).
Nothing creaked or rattled, I had under knee support, and plenty of places to put stuff. Plus the steering on the 5 is a country mile better in terms of feel. Sure you can get pano roof and alcantara as upgrades on the Model S, but we are talking standard kit.
Here in the UK I could pickup a 520d for �300pcm on contract hire, but a base 60kW with no options is closer to �800.
So why didn't I just buy a 5 series? Exclusivity, power delivery, and the incentives opened up in extracting cash from my business without paying income tax on it�
Mar 12, 2015
RobStark Model 3 will be ~20% more than Golf or Focus. No way around it. But it will also be much more car.
Americans who drive full size pickups hate electric cars and many have a deep unquestionable hate for Tesla in particular.
The point is to make such a compelling truck you change minds.
There was a time when American truck owners swore on their mother's eternal soul they would never buy a foreign brand pickup.
Now a fair number buy Japanese trucks.
Unsuspecting Ram owners don't know their truck is made by British Co domiciled in The Netherlands for tax purposes with historic ties to Italy and largely controlled by an Italian family. :crying:�
Mar 12, 2015
matbl The 1, 2 and 3 series are smaller much cheaper cars.
Comparing with the 5-series, you can get all things you mention as options similarly priced as the same option on the MS except for the fake-suede dash. You can get real nappa leather though...
Digital dash is not standard but a pretty cheap option ($600?).�
Mar 12, 2015
dirkhh I did this last year and I invite anyone here who wonders about German luxury cars vs Tesla when it comes to interior. Drive your Model S to your local BMW dealer, park it next to a 5 series (or drive to Mercedes and pick an E class) and sit in each car for a few minutes, alternating between them. Observe the fit and finish, the quality of the seats, the functionality (do I dare to mention cup holders? storage in the passenger area), and then talk to the sales drone about the available options.
I love love love my car. But I've driven BMWs for the 25 years prior to getting my first Model S and frequently rent them when I go to Europe.
Tesla has a lot of room for improvement.
Right now they are supply constraint. But to continue growing at 50% y/y they will eventually need to do better in these direct comparisons.�
Mar 12, 2015
RobStark Tesla is doing better every couple of months.
Alcantara dash and headliner.
Heated steering wheel.
Recaro New Generation heated seats.
Some fat Americans still prefer no thigh support traditional wide flat Cadillac/Lincoln style seats so those are not going away.
Optional rear counsel with cup holders.
The storage thing is really a philosophical disagreement. Between minimalist aesthetic and practicality.
Many see all the storage bins as trash/clutter collectors. Eliminating them forces you to keep the car clean and uncluttered.
Anywho, I think the Model X will come with storage bins and juice box holders up to your eyeballs since Tesla keeps repeating this will be more women/family friendly.�
Mar 12, 2015
smac My previous car was a Nissan Frontier
Small point I didn't think the Frontier was a "Full Size", and the Titan was the Nissan's offering in that segment�
Mar 12, 2015
Yggdrasill I certainly hope so. The slightly higher price is easily justified with the lower running costs, provided the Model 3 can be every bit as practical in everyday life. That means it needs to be roomy, have a 200+ mile range and have supercharger access. Also, it should have the option of a tow hitch, and an AWD version would definitely boost demand.
If Tesla manages this, the Model 3 will *easily* become the most popular car in Norway.
It might sell in the US, but in Norway? No. The pickup market is miniscule (~2%). Don't know about the rest of europe, either. It parobably wouldn't sell well.�
Mar 12, 2015
dirkhh I think we all can dream up the perfect Model 3... the one that would become the most popular car everywhere.
I'm so hoping Tesla comes close to that car we are dreaming up...
Pickups in Europe are as common as flying pigs in the US.
They are super popular in the US, in parts of Latin America, in the Arab world... so from an "existing Tesla markets" point of view... the US and maybe Australia?�
Mar 12, 2015
smac They sell fairly well in the UK due to tax breaks. Mitsubishi was the first one here to exploit a tax loop hole, where being a "commercial vehicle" you paid very little as a company car tax, and could reclaim your fuel pre-income tax.
The rules have been tightened up significantly, but a fully loaded double cab pickup is much cheaper than it's SUV equivalent, and as long as it has a 1T payload still classes as a commercial vehicle irrespective of if it has a full Bose sound system, a 250BHP V6, 7 Speed auto, and will do 135mph�
Mar 12, 2015
flankspeed8 I believe it is the difference between importing finished automobiles versus auto parts. There still is a tax just lower on auto parts.�
Mar 12, 2015
kenliles disagree-
I believe he wants demand for EV (including Tesla products) to completely and mercilessly outstrip anything Tesla could actually produce, inducing ALL other players into same to meet demand... and I think this objective carries strong influence of his strategic Tesla decisions on a daily basis... just my opinion of course�
Mar 12, 2015
dirkhh Import duty for a car is 10%. For a car battery by itself it's just 3.7%. And other parts have other rates.�
Mar 12, 2015
RobStark I don't. That would lead to many pist off customers.
You want Tesla to expand as fast as they can and have one more customer than they have cars. Same for the rest of the EV industry.
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If Tesla could expand that market a bit and capture most of it I would be very happy as a Tesla shareholder. 2k sales per year?
Much more functionality that what is currently available with much lower operation cost.
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Everywhere in Latin America that does not import large amounts of oil. That would not be an issue with Tesla.
Argentinian Gaucho's would not have to worry about about a massive fuel bill.
I think you are also forgetting Canada.
They don't like it when you consider them the 51st State. :biggrin:�
Mar 12, 2015
kenliles only if you assume only Tesla can satisfy EV customers- Tesla expanding as fast as they can (which they are currently doing) would currently equal a condition coming no where near the total EV demand Tesla induces on the marketplace (in Elon's mission statement imo), hence the definition of a catalyst.
I think what Elon has in mind is changing the industry many times faster than Tesla can possibly expand. In other words, transforming the entire industry to EV faster than production even from all EV makers can supply which in turn brings more production at higher margins.
I think the steady state scenario you are painting is decades from now in EM's plan and carries no water for current strategic positions. If he had his way- Tesla would prove the catalyst for the rest of the industry, by definition not being able to keep up with it's own demand, pissing off sufficient customers that they demand EV from more than can be currently provisioned. This is in fact what we are witnessing- Tesla expanding as fast as possible and yet demand forcing ICE to EV transition from others. AS soon as demand production parity is reached, the objective is complete- i.e. essentially an all EV system of transportation.
We may be saying the same thing- but I don't think the industry will convert to EV if Tesla can keep up with EV demand; That by definition means the objective has failed since Tesla can never produce all cars.�
Mar 12, 2015
smac I thought the Puerto Rico was the 51st state
Not sure how many Teslas have been sold there though ; )�
Mar 12, 2015
dirkhh I'd never do that. I just wasn't sure how popular pickups are in that proud country...�
Mar 12, 2015
smac The problem with a catalyst business model is, almost by dictionary definition, it can't grow as fast as the things it has catalysed
Given TMs need for hard spendable cash, they need to keep their borrowing rates low. To achieve this they need to keep their market cap high, which in turn needs a much higher multiple on revenues than the competitors, which then Tesla are supposedly catalyzing...
It's all a massive juggling act, and I would imagine this is the main thing on Elon's mind.�
Mar 12, 2015
Bgarret Don't worry. Canadians all know Americans say they are Canadians when we travel overseas so people won't think we're ugly Americans. Imitation - the highest form of flattery.�
Mar 12, 2015
Taipan Last fall, Uber France classified the Model S into the UberX (ie. economic/low-cost) segment with local french mid-size sedans retailing for 20-30K� because the seats were not confortable enough, not enough headroom and *guess what* no central armrest with cupholders for water bottles.
While the Audi A6, Merc Class E, BMW 5 & Chrisler 300C were re-assigned to the upper "Berline/BlackCar" segment, with the usual Class S, Jaguar & co.
List of cars accepted by category
That sent a dramatic signal to all profesionnal drivers/chauffeur services in Paris (Uber being the absolute leader) and, AFAIK, Tesla France didn't get any order from those customers ever since. It just killed that market and it may take some time and effort to recover from it.
Edit: the Berline category generates approx. twice more revenue per kilometer than UberX => why spend 100K� on a Model S while you can get the same revenue per kilometer from a 20K� Renault Laguna ?�
Mar 12, 2015
MikeC That's interesting, because it qualified for UberLUX in the US: Uber Luxury Qualified
Maybe an example of how slow uptake delays further uptake. If people were more aware and it was popular like in the US, maybe it would have been given a higher categorization.�
Mar 12, 2015
dirkhh See, I have the advantages that I can say "I'm German" (in the four or five countries where that's useful), "I'm American" (when in the US), and "You can't do that to me, I'm a Canadian citizen" (everywhere else)�
Mar 12, 2015
kenliles Yes true. And that may well be the biggest challenge for Elon's TM. Could be that's what Apple could resolve for them to essentially create a scalability that gets to Rob's described equilibrium much faster. Going to be a blast to watch it play out regardless�
Mar 12, 2015
schonelucht How could you make a truck compelling for a European who doesn't work in construction? I doubt it can be done. If you are looking at cars that would be an insta-hit in Europe, you have to go for the smaller models. Size and performance of a Golf, reasonable range and price after incentives? You'll need a few Gigafactory to fullfill European demand alone.�
Mar 12, 2015
Yggdrasill I think trying to capture 50-100% market share in the pickup market would be *far* harder to accomplish than getting a 25-50% market share in the smaller hatchback/station wagon/crossover segment. I definitely think Tesla should focus on selling 20k Model 3 in Norway than focus on selling 2k pickups.
I have strong doubts Tesla would be able to sell 2k pickups in Norway, no matter how hard they tried. The pickup trucks here are used extensively for towing, for one thing. Electric cars are currently not good at towing long distance. Now, maybe enthusiasts like you and I might be convinced to make it work, but convincing the current pickup truck owners would be an entirely different thing.
Okay, maybe they could do it if they could get costs down to a competitive level, and stuffed a 150 kWh battery in there, and threw in lots of stuff construction workers would like, such as a winch, power outlets for running power tools (like on the VIA trucks), etc. But would it be worth it? I'm thinking no.�
Mar 12, 2015
matbl Probably not. If tjey categorized it with specific reasons, it's not because of slow uptake. If the report is accurate, they did it for interior comfort alone...�
Mar 13, 2015
RobStark Companies are all about Total Cost of Ownership.
So I think it would be easier to get ~75% marketshare because is all about the math.
Getting people out of VW and Ford station wagons is a much more emotional decision for consumers filled with perhaps some irrational range anxiety.
There are all those advantages you mention plus much lower cost of fuel and lower maintenance . Companies run the spreadsheet and pick the lowest cost option.
The Tesla pickup truck is not coming out next year.
Somewhere in the 2020-2025 range.
The Tesla cost for an electric powertrain should be equal to or below an equivalent ICE powertrain by then.
Meaning massive kWh for the battery pack for towing at least as capable as an ICE for what is available in Norway at least. I take it Norway's construction workers plumbers don't drive 7.0L V8s like in the US.
BTW I am not saying this should be the focus of Tesla Norway. In any event all they really need is to have the truck available. Tesla does not do paid advertisement anyway. It is not like they would take advertising dollars away from Model 3 and Model Y for the Tesla Pickup.
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I think the European Commission is a more objective body for categorizing automobiles than Uber France.
Plus, Tesla is now available with BMW type heated Recaro seats with more rear seat headroom for those with that preference. As indicated by Uber USA many Americans have a different definition of what constitutes seat comfort.
And a rear central console with cupholders for water bottles is now available.
Not to mention the executive rear seat option.�
Mar 13, 2015
Yggdrasill Many pickup trucks aren't owned by companies, though. Single person businesses are common, and many pickup trucks are privately owned for towing boats, etc. Pickup truck owners are a diverse bunch, and trying to get close to 100% market share will be difficult.
Most plumbers/electricians/painters/carpenters/etc in Norway usually drive vans like the Transporter, Hiace or Caravelle. Pickup trucks are more common in heavy duty construction, like building dams, roads, bridges, tunnels, etc.
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A more realistic goal for a Tesla pickup truck in Norway would be 500-1000 per year. Moving beyond that would become increasingly hard.�
Mar 13, 2015
RobStark Other than F segment in Silicon Valley, I doubt Tesla gets 100% marketshare anywhere. I think 75% is doable.
This is what I thought about vans being dominant in the business sector which is why I asked about the weekend cowboy.
I think this is where TCO comes in where the Tesla pickup can take marketshare away from the Euro Van.
Heavy duty is a straight up spreadsheet type of sale.
Others will take more convincing. I know Europeans think it is crazy to leave your stuff out in the open in a pick up bed but there are many solutions.
If private pickup owners see the businesses buying Tesla they may take it as a hint there maybe something up with that Tesla truck that makes sense.
�
Mar 13, 2015
Auzie Really great informative insight into various markets. It seems to me that 'one size fits all' will not cut it for Tesla in overseas markets. Each market might require tailor-made approach and more customized car in order to win more market share.�
Mar 13, 2015
smac The problem with hardtops on pick ups is you can't fit stuff like 8x4 sheets of plywood or plasterboard in any of the UK sized trucks. Making matters worse many don't have opening rear windows so long lengths of pipe have to either stick out the back, or go on roof racks.
The 2 door pickups with the longer beds tend to be poverty spec here, and are generally bought by large companies as fleet vehicles. A small business owner would want a 4 door luxury one, as it can double up as a big family car.
Currently the fashionable thing to have amongst the small business owning tradesmen I know is the VW Transporter Combi, normally in HiLine spec. (The latest Ford Transit again in high spec is picking up ground, and there's a new Renault Trafic). Many of these guys had pickups in the past, but got fed up with the load area compromises.�
Mar 13, 2015
AustinPowers What's a "pickup"? ;-)
They also seem to be very popular with terrorists as they make for very practical mobile weapons platforms. Not sure whether terrorist groups care to much for BEVs though...�
Mar 13, 2015
matbl The EC doesn't evaluate a car's interior. It goes by size, weight and price.
BMW type? You got to be kidding? Go sit in a BMW 5-series with comfort seats at a dealership and compare yourself.�
Mar 13, 2015
AustinPowers You spoke about Tesla try making a compelling pickup truck. Problem is, at least for most Europeans, the words "pickup truck" and "compelling" are a contradiction in terms.
To us it's not an emotional decision. Station wagons are practical, pickup trucks are not. At least not for what we buy stations wagons for and why they are so immensely popular here.
Not meaning to sound rude, but many Americans have a different definition of "normal body size" as well!
True, but at the cost of more or less permanently eliminating the third rear seat. Every carmaker apart from Tesla is able to make foldable rear seats with fold-out armrests and cupholder/storage function, sometimes even with skibag option (like in my car) for transporting long items safely while keeping the interior clean. I don't think it is too much to ask - when this kind of functionality (the fold-out armrest I mean) has been around for decades - that Tesla be able to design such a thing as well. It's not rocket science after all (and if it were, I am sure Space-X could help out with expertise ;-) )
And as the (endless) argument "minimalist philosophy vs. practicality" popped up in this thread as well, I can only stress again that most Europeans seem to prefer practicality over philosophy any day when it comes to their cars. Hence all the well equipped and practical smaller cars and station wagons over here.
And while we are at it, most Europeans also seem to prefer affordability over insane performance as well.
Tesla should take all that into account if they want to sell Model 3 in large numbers over here.
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This is how most car companies work. Look at VW or Toyota for example. They sell very different models in different markets (sometimes under the same name though, like the VW Passat where the US model is a completely different one than ours in Europe), often models for overseas markets are not even available in the "home" market - and vice versa.�
Mar 13, 2015
ev-enthusiast European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) says Plug-in electric car sales have undergone a huge rise in many key European markets
BEV new car sales in European Union up 51,5% from Q4 2013 to Q42014 and 56,6% yoy.�
Mar 13, 2015
schonelucht Here is the thing : there are no private pickup owners in Europe. That market just does not exist. Why would the average family buy such an unwieldy vehicle?�
Mar 13, 2015
AustinPowers +1 There is one guy in our town with an American pickup truck. That thing is gigantic. But that guy has a boating business and he uses the truck for towing his customers' large sailing boats around. Plus, he is an Amcar guy (he also has a Corvette and a Mustang). He is not representative of the average German car buyer though ;-)�
Mar 13, 2015
jkirkebo
Mine's as silent now as it was new, 1,5 years and 43,000 kilometres ago. No creaks or rattles whatsoever, and it has experienced temps as low as -20 degrees at least.�
Mar 13, 2015
smac And therein lies the problem.
Your's is silent.
Mine isn't.
IMHO QC is just not up to scratch out the factory door. The reliance on the service centre staff to apply remedial fixes (everyone I know personally with a Model S has had a "list" to get fixed), simply cannot go on and it needs to be fixed at source.
Currently I have 15 cars on my business's fleet (a mix of Audis/BMWs/Mercs/VW from Audi A3's up to Merc SL's), and only one of them has had to go back to the dealer for anything other than servicing. My Tesla has been back 3 times already
Of course German car's do go wrong, I'm not suggesting they are perfect, it's just between 0 and 3 years old they do generally seem "right out of the box". At 4-5 years though things start going wrong, cynically you'd suspect built in obsolescence
However if you want a car that will never go wrong, a Lexus LS is hard to beat
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+2
I Drove from UK to Austria in mine a couple of years ago, and people were definitely looking at it on the Autobahn. When I got to Austria, a number of people actually came up to ask me about it.�
Mar 13, 2015
Runarbt same with mine. 1 1/2year and 46.000 km. Not a single squeak.�
Mar 13, 2015
smac Maybe it's because mines an early RHD car. The dash is particularly creaky, and will obviously be different.
The door pillar noises though are a common problem, to both LHD and RHD cars. There is a retrofit fix kit for it available from the service centre. (And has been available since before I picked up the car)
Seat base creaking again is a common problem, and applies to both LHS and RHD versions.
I also suspect a worn wheel bearing. You can definitely here a grating/rubbing as weight transfers onto the front nearside wheel.
I'm almost to the point where I take the engineer round the block in the office pool car, a 9 year old (100k mile) Ford Mondeo, that has been abused by countless placement undergrads. When the engine isn't running the Ford is quieter
Of course maybe I'm just making it up�
Mar 13, 2015
dirkhh When I finally got my car back yesterday I talked to the service lead in Portland. He pointed out that in his experience a lot of this was connected to the quality of the roads where you are. Apparently the factory guys are consistently surprised when they come up to Oregon and drive a Tesla on our ridiculously bad roads. I sure remember that on both of my trips to California I enjoyed how quiet the ride was on better roads.
So at least based on the comments from one Tesla technician it seems that maybe the Factory underestimates how much the cars get shaken in other locations.
Or maybe that's just him making excuses for how many rattle issues I had with my 60 :-D
So far the new car is whisper quiet. It's quite enjoyable...
I will say that we are all still paying a certain amount of early adopter pain... the new car with a 74xxx VIN appears to be an improvement over the 11xxx VIN S60 (but then, I haven't had it long enough to know for sure) - but from the couple hundred miles it sure feels tighter, the seats are way better, I can identify a bunch of small improvements here and there... so my hope is that they will keep getting better and that every year there'll be a noticeable improvement.�
Mar 14, 2015
Yggdrasill Either you don't have any experience with the roads in Norway, or you just didn't notice that the two people posting that their cars didn't have any rattles or squeaks were from Norway...
Norway has some of the worst roads in Europe. In 2011, Norway had 221 km of 4 lane motorways, while for instance Albania, one of the poorest countries in Europe, had 759 km. It's a fact that cars just aren't designed for Norwagian roads, and components in the undercarriage often need to be replaced several times over the life of the cars here. (And if you look at some of Bj�rn Nylands videos, in places like Denmark the noise level is quite low, while in Norway, it's noisy as hell.) The UK is way ahead of us.�
Mar 14, 2015
Matias Dollar/euro is skyrocketing http://www.x-rates.com/graph/
New euro price increase is imminent.�
Mar 14, 2015
smac Reading back, I do sound a little negative, I'm glad @dirkhh is giving some feed back that indeed QC is being looked into.
Of course it could just be as I bought an S60 too they were given less care and attention compared to the flagship cars as they went down the line
I'm sure road quality and temperatures do have their part to play. My car has done 6000 miles, almost exclusively NOT on the motorway network. It's 8 months old (VIN 33xxx), and was relatively quiet up until the weather turned colder. I don't garage the car, so it gets subject to the full ambient temperature swing.
The other thing you notice in a Tesla is how much weight savings they have tried to incorporate. Whilst we moan about cup holders, grab handles, tiny sunvisors, missing door bins, I have a suspicion there where some serious weight reduction measures in the design brief. The dash board is definitely less structurally rigid than Audi's, and other plastics are noticeably thinner, with less fixings too.
A good example is to look at where the seat belt exits the door pillar. The plastic cowl is thin with relatively few clips, as the seat belt moves in an out it rubs slightly, over time the belt starts ever-so slightly catching the plastic. The light weight plastic and minimal fixings means it resonates like a drum.
I'm speculating slightly, but I would guess overall there are fewer fixings in a Tesla than a comparable German car. If all are done up exactly to torque, and factory fresh, it works and gives a good overall weight saving. The more traditional approach is to put in more fixings to give a greater tolerance to slight mis-torquing / plastic aging / heat conditions, and unexpected harmonic resonance.
I also own a Lotus, which also has thin light weight parts. It too rattles and creaks. It's sort of expected in a track toy, but not in an EU "premium" brand luxury car.
It will be interesting to see how the engineering team can improve the solidity of the interior, add the features we are asking for, and still keep the weight under control.�
Mar 14, 2015
ev-enthusiast Tesla and Uber join forces in Germany for Test Drives.
�
Mar 14, 2015
Robert.Boston The Reus Audio owner commented to me, after installing his stereo kit in my car, that the Model S interior is not put together with the same level of quality or quantity of attachment points, compared to the top-tier cars (Astons, Bentleys, etc.) that he usually works on. His view was that Tesla had a long way to go to bring those details up to the 'luxury' standard.�
Mar 20, 2015
matbl This is from the announcement from Tesla yesterday:
Limiting blind spot detection to 140 kph won't exactly help sales in Germany. Why oh why do Tesla insist of doing things half-ass and/or ignoring some of its markets.
Limiting to 140 kph actually makes it dangerous since my guess is that most drivers won't be aware of this limitation since their previous German car didn't have this. Going 139, it will warn you, going 141 it won't. On Autobahn where speeds are high and lane changes very frequent I think you get the picture...�
Mar 20, 2015
Krugerrand I guess you'll just have to be aware of your surroundings while you drive.
I've managed to drive for more than 3 decades without a single autopilot type feature (as have thousands of others) AND managed to not hit anyone dumb enough to be deliberately driving in my blind spot (which happens surprisingly a lot given that they should know better), or to get hit by someone else because I stupidly was driving deliberately in their blind spot. That's not a miracle, that's being a conscience and conscientious driver. Interestingly enough, I can do it at speed as well. Who knew?
I suspect, though, if it's that big of a deal for the few Germans/Europeans who think the center of the driving universe is the Autobahn, that Tesla will consider making a change to the firmware just as they have already with other features like top speed.
It might even be a possibility that Tesla has specifically limited the feature to that speed range because that's currently what the hardware and software are safely capable of and not because of some half-assed/ignoring some markets thing.�
Mar 20, 2015
matbl I've also managed without it for my two decades of driving. But that's not the point.
The point is that one is probably better off without blind spot detection than one that automatically turns off at a certain speed. Especially since most buyers don't read every word in the manual or release notes or lurk at forums.
It shouldn't be a HW/SW limitation since it seems to work well for every other car maker at these speeds. If Tesla deliberatly chose a cheaper HW then that's ignoring markets.�
Mar 20, 2015
Krugerrand You're going to claim Tesla is being half-assed/ignoring a market based on 'probably better off'? Let's not even mention the myriad of assumptions you've made, off the top of my head how do you know the driver won't be told in some fashion (dash display, chime, flashing warning lights, Barry White crooning...) that blind spot detection has ceased to function because the driver has exceeded speed?
We'd all probably be better off if people were randomly selected (like every 10,000th person to walk out of a liquor or Apple story, or every other person who gets pulled over for running a red light or stop sign) to redo their written and driven tests without any preparation time to cram study and practice being on their best behavior.
You're not in a position to know what should or should not be, unless you work at Tesla and are privy to all the particulars of the design of the system and it's integration in the car?
I understand you don't think the system should work that way, but you make a mighty, premature leap in assuming it's Tesla being half-assed or ignoring a specific market. It might even have been an oversight or a miscalculation by the person with the authority to make that decision - just so you don't assume I think Tesla is perfect.�
Mar 20, 2015
dirkhh I think this shows that the Tesla engineers are in California.
This isn't a singular event.
Talk to people in New England about Tesla's nonchalant ignorance to cold weather driving issues.
Talk to people in Germany to Tesla's utter lack of understanding of the expectations of German car buyers spending 100k Euro on a car. Whether it's the cruise control limit at 150km/h or now the blind spot detection limit at 140km/h.
It doesn't matter if the Californians think this is reasonable and sufficient or what not. No German luxury car in that price range has such limitations. And people cruise faster than 160km/h in Germany all the time.
Tesla needs to open a lab in Germany and hire a few German engineers to provide a healthy balance to their sun-bathed Californian brethren...�
Mar 20, 2015
kenliles maybe Elon's timetable targets the eventual earth temperatures we're at by the time we get to an EV world...�
Mar 20, 2015
sundaymorning Lets not pin Tesla vs the German establishment. All vehicles have their pros and cons..While I love German luxury automobiles, my personal experience with German cars are not satisfactory. The electrics fail too often and the maintenance cost for German vehicles are horrendous, especially Mercs which do not have third party suppliers for parts. My uncle has made a very nice living off unsuspecting German car owners by cleverly operating his own German repair shop in the Bay Area.
I've visited friends in Germany before and can say that yes, many crazies drive at high speeds and crash their vehicles all the time. However, this is not the case for every car owner and certainly not the case for my friends. The Germans are very nationalistic and proud of their engineering, Tesla will need time to alter the perception of German superiority with small incremental moves like yesterday. My take on this is that perhaps your friends, who are conscious about "limitations" that they've either read or heard about, may not have test drove the MS. Give them time... if we speak of limitations, I have a long list of complaints about German vehicles, this was why I now own a Lexus.�
Mar 20, 2015
dirkhh You are missing the point. This thread is about the EU Market Situation and Outlook.
My post is about how Tesla engineers are frequently applying their experience in temperate NoCal with SLOOOOOW traffic to the cars and seem to miss the point that that is insufficient for alleged key focus markets of theirs.�
Mar 20, 2015
maoing http://www.thestreet.com/story/13085602/1/these-numbers-could-mean-another-quarterly-guide-down-for-tesla.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
first half of March in Norway, 316 sold.
�
Mar 20, 2015
sundaymorning [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]I think I have your point down pretty clear, they are typical points offered from early resistance against a compelling tech. The non believers and naysayers are often individuals who have yet test drive the MS and offer repetitive arguments. What you're saying about MS engineered for SF "slow traffic" has little merit against a broader understanding of what valuable engineering is about: regenerative braking and the capturing of loss energy for the purpose of efficiency. Can a Mercedes S550, SLK, CL, CLA fleet do that? Additionally I wouldn't call a P85D slow. Which then leads us to the point, being range vs speed. What do you think will happen if a Mercedes continuously drove at 100 MPH, will efficiency in MPG go up or down? MS buyers operate and own the vehicle to several advantages that ICE vehicles do not possess. The urban myth of cold weather really does not contribute to range anxiety for MS owners, why do you suppose they buy so many of these cars in Norway, is it not colder in that country? Even if the MS had 600 miles of range, naysayers will still nitpick on things such as "I like the roar of an ICE ENGINE," yea that's why they make luxury cars quieter by the year.. or how about this, "I like the smell of carbon monoxide in the morning." We all know about limitations on both fronts and you are right, Germany is not California, we have American pride here, and difference is that Tesla is still young, give them time, the improvements are pretty darn fast...[/COLOR]�
Mar 20, 2015
matbl Of course I can't know. But I can make reasonable assumptions.
A. There are sensors that can do this just fine at speeds above 140 kph and has been for years.
AND
B. It's obviously not impossible to develop software for such a system using those sensors since it have existed in other cars for years.
SO
C. Tesla should be able to be as good as the competition unless they chose bad sensors deliberately or by mistake or made a crappy SW or deliberately limited it. Either way it's half-ass or ignorant to what Tesla have identified as a key market.
Don't get me wrong, I have a S85 without sensors so this have no impact on me personally but I would really like Tesla to succeed in Germany as well as all other countries. But to do that they have to step up their game
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If I'm not misreading his signature, dirkhh have been owning Model S's for a year and a half. I have had mine for just 8 months though. But I think we're well past the test drive stage...
Noone has called the P85D slow. But I think he called california traffic slow.
this is not bashing EV's, it's about having the same expectations on a 100k car no matter what brand it is. A technical feature that works well on many other brands shouldn't really be something that all of a sudden have a speed restriction on a Tesla. That's bad engineering from Tesla's side. It's not that hard to buy a BMW or Mercedes with these features and test how they perform and set that as the bar to release.�
Mar 20, 2015
dirkhh
Umm. OK?
You do realize that I just got my second Model S and that I live in the US? No? I thought so.
I really don't know what to say to all this. You are completely and utterly missing my point. You're not even close to understanding my point. If you hadn't quoted from my post I would have sworn you aren't responding to my post.�
Mar 20, 2015
sundaymorning D, I do know you are from Portland, OR.. I did however, mistaken your rattling problem with a complaint of a poster you quoted, who stated that none of his German cars in a fleet of 15 has ever been to the maintenance shop, while the Tesla had been there twice. Allow me to apologize for mistaken you from another member you quoted.
From my experience of purchasing new cars is that you want to avoid the first production year model. Although my Lexus LS460 is reliable, the 2007 first years have quite a bit of issues: actuator $4-5k fix, Control arms another $5k, etc. when the control arms come become misplace, the LS will do more than just rattle and shake... is your Tesla a first year model? And have they looked at the control arms?�
Mar 21, 2015
daniel Ox9EFD I see from CleanTechnica (link: Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF, BMW i3 Top US Electric Car Sales In February | CleanTechnica),
That the US sales February are ~2000, ~1500 in January. That compares to ~500 in Europe in both Jan, Feb.
So, first, I have a hard time seeing how that adds up to 55k for 2015. Second, this makes Tesla a very US centric auto-maker. I'm assuming here less than 500/month in Asia+Australia.�
Mar 21, 2015
bonaire I have seen the various tally forum threads here. It always looks like the reservation counts were something like four to one for the US vs. europe. I have to think that if you were to place cars at Tesla stores, Americans also would perform more impulse sales making the ratio even higher. When you compare your 4500 to 500, that is too high for the natural reservation ratio. The reason it is US centric for Jan and Feb appears to be due to the s85d initial shipments in Feb local to the US. That holds back Europe. Now, March and April should be considerably higher in Europe and Asia. RHD in UK will not happen until a little later in Q2. When I say considerably, I mean maybe 800-1000 in Norway in March, for example. First P85D have happened in Norway but not until what, March? So, things should pick up and become more like the 4 to 1 ratio.�
Mar 21, 2015
hobbes If I get it right "500 in Europe in both Jan, Feb" means 500 each month, so 1000 in total? At least EV Sales: Europe lists 549 for January. So that is already approximately more than one car going to Europe for 4 going to the US as bonaire expected. Still US centric though, I agree. But I think that it pretty much in line with other US car manufacturers or even better.
Adding your numbers that would be for Jan+Feb: 4500 US+1000 EU+1000 Asia/Australia =6500. If the production rate was constant all year, extrapolating those numbers to 12 months would give only 39,000. But I would not assume a constant run rate - if they double the rate by the end of year and ramp up constantly, that would give a factor of 1.5 leading to 58,500. But most of those numbers are still estimates and as bonaire said, towards the end of the quarter sales usually go up.
What numbers did Tesla guide for Q1 again, can�t remember?�
Mar 21, 2015
daniel Ox9EFD I couldn't find any information regarding guidance for Q1 2015. I see 8500 for global deliveries as a good conservative number the quarter.
But the doubling of production by year end makes these numbers have more sense. It's still tight though.
Is there any information from Tesla how the ramp up would look like? As in, will it be like in 2014, as an overhaul of the factory where they will not be producing for 3 weeks, or will it be seamless?�
Mar 21, 2015
bonaire Question I have overall - we know 10,000 were called out as the reservation backlog at end of the year, right?
Well, if production increases and that backlog goes down or even goes away, then what is the factory going to do - keep production going at 1000 per week and send cars to sales centers? I think the 10,000 was nondeterministic because it included a variety of new-car orders for cars that were not yet in production, the S85D. Plus variety of European P85D pending production which increased going into January. The D option was very attractive and has boosted interest quite a bit but without a backlog number being given every quarter, it is really hard to guess what the year's total may be. I have read a couple posts here on TMC about people getting some serious discounts on inventory cars this month. This is to sell more cars for the quarter and does not really indicate a huge backlog is still being built-out. I think the idea is to get more cars on the road so owners can talk about them and create more interest - leading to more sales. Volume is very important and proclamations of actual owners sells better than advertising.
Just saying "the production will double by year end" must be met with "and the order rate must also double by year end". Otherwise, it is confusing as to what is expected by management, investors and the press covering all this. The mild headwind that I see is the new CPO program offering lower-priced older models which preclude people from having to order and wait and pay more for a new one. Then if they also allow leasing of CPO cars somehow - that makes them quite attractive for someone who is on the edge of deciding to order.
If the factory doubles output to 2,000 per week, that is a 20 week period which would produce the whole Model X backlog, if production is half and half. In the Model X tally page, the incoming order rate of Model X is maybe 350 per calendar week (but it's really hard to pin point exactly) - looks to be about 50 per day. The pricing and model options need to come out to really figure out how this demand rate will continue. And, will it be like the Model S where the reservation number gets obfuscated so that the ongoing order rate becomes impossible to follow?�
Mar 21, 2015
schonelucht You can find all that information in their shareholders letter of last quarter which is prominently featured on the Tesla Motors shareholders website. They expect to deliver 9500 cars this quarter. 55% of their sales last year were domestic, 30% in larger Europe and 15% in Asia. I don't see a reason why this would be hugely different for this quarter. This would mean Europe is expected to sell just under 2850 cars. We know of approximately 1100 cars in January and February which leaves 1750 cars for March. It's doable but it probably requires nearly 1000 cars in Norway alone.�
Mar 21, 2015
Krugerrand You think it's reasonable to call Tesla half-assed and ignoring a market (that they obviously - stated publically - feel is important) without knowing the specifics of what's going on behind the scenes and why specific decisions were made? Our conversation ends since we clearly don't agree about what is reasonable.
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Once again completely ignoring the CEO's continued assurances that 'we have NO demand problem', as well as the 'we don't have to advertise this year (2015), might need to next year (2016), or the 'we have a secret weapon to increase demand that will also take on the dealerships'. Failing to acknowledge those statements doesn't make them not true.
It indicates no such thing. What it does indicate is that the CPO program is quietly being rolled out. It may also indicate a significant change in the car that we don't know about yet and Tesla simply wanting to restock all stores/galleries with the latest and greatest.
Order rate will easily double with the addition of Model X to the roads. Just sit back and watch.�
Mar 21, 2015
daniel Ox9EFD Ok I see it now under "2015 Outlook". (I blame my poor reading comprehension).
Some speculation on Norway sales: Sorry, the page you requested could not be found - TheStreet
In short, they counted 316 for March 1 to 16 in Norway model S sales. So sales better pick up in the next two weeks or they will miss another quarter. Or perhaps the report is wrong.
This might sound like bean counting to the average Tesla fan, but after being years late with the model X, asking investors to believe the model 3 won't share the same fate is a bit of a stretch. So it would be good to know they are not chronically over-optimistic.
In the shareholder letter there will be in Q1 a week of non-production for retooling. Anyone know if that happened already? If so guidance for Q2 should be higher.�
Mar 21, 2015
Krugerrand It is a grievous mistake to think that. There were several reasons for Model X delays, least of all were the engineering feats that had to be attained. Once it became apparent the Model S was going to be wildly more successful than ever imagined, there was no rush for Model X to get to market to do what it was originally intended to, which was to generate money to advance the company. Model S has done that all on its own (SuperCharger Network, expansion of stores/SCs anyone?) and by doing so more time could be spent solving and perfecting further features (like AWD, autopilot), get them into the Model S for some real world testing and have them ready to rock and roll for the Model X, which will make it an even better vehicle than it was originally intended to be. Model X is going to blow the doors off anything and everything in its segment and surrounding segments. People will forget it was ever deliberately delayed.
Everything is done for the Model 3. Everything. No advancements needed. No engineering problems to solve or perfect. All done. It'll be a cakewalk compared to the S & X. It seemed the hardest decision for the Model 3 was just made recently, when it was officially announced by Elon that they'd go with a less wild design, saving that for the next iteration of Model 3.
But even more important and why there will be no delay, Model 3 is tied to the Gigafactory, and the Gigafactory is tied to partnerships with other companies. Model 3 will not be late like the Model X, because it can't be.�
Mar 21, 2015
dirkhh I would describe this as a very very optimistic view. Actually, that's an understatement. I'd say that's a view that ignores reality.
Model 3 needs a different battery. Different physical dimensions, and most everyone seems to assume different chemistry. Which will need different TMS.
Model 3 is said to have just one screen, so the information display needs to be redesigned.
For both of these (and many other) reasons, it needs new firmware.
Model 3 is very likely not an aluminum car. New manufacturing challenges. Either way, new crash test considerations.
It needs a smaller, cheaper to produce interior.
etc. etc.
Claiming "all done" on the engineering challenges is not supported by the facts.
That's like saying Fisker will fix the issues with their car because it has taken government money so they cannot fail.
The business world doesn't work that way. Model 3 is an extremely risky endeavor. Billions of dollars ride on it. There are a ton of open questions and many challenging engineering and design problems that need to be solved.
I would be shocked if we even got to see Model 3 in 2017. I see no possible scenario where Model 3 will start shipping in 2017.�
Mar 21, 2015
Krugerrand Nothing new or hard has to happen for Model 3 and that's been stated by Tesla. Once you know how to make a cake, making muffins (even if in a different flavor) isn't hard. That's what I mean by all done. There will be no dolphin flipper hatch, no 1500 horses, no 50" video display, no hover mode. Model 3 will be built from known data, scaled down, and made simpler for affordability. Just addressing a couple of your points for time's sake, making a car out of aluminum is way more challenging than making a car out of steel, as an example. The people in stamping are likely to breathe a huge sigh of relief not having to make A class panels out of aluminum any longer. And considering Model S has the highest safety ever recorded, the Model X I'd bet money will score equally as well if we know Elon Musk at all, I'd then say Tesla knows how to make a car safe, such that there will be no outstanding challenges to make Model 3 safe.
I don't think that analogy fits at all. If Model 3 is late (beyond a time period that can be readily absorbed by all partners - a few weeks, a couple months, whatever that contingency plan in place is - and maybe I'm wrong and there is no contingency plan at all, no built in buffer) then it's over. As in bye-bye Tesla. That's how 'this' business world works where Tesla is concerned. Tesla is all in as evidenced by the big money spending comment at the last ER. Model 3 has to be on time, because the health and future of Tesla and others depends on it. After all this time and effort, I'm confident Elon Musk will use his considerable force of will to get Model 3 out on time.
So again I say, thinking Model 3 development and deployment will in any way be parallel to the development and deployment of Model X is false, and would pretty much conclude the business of Tesla.�
Mar 21, 2015
smac Here in the UK there are plenty of non-franchised Mercedes specialists where you can buy parts and get warranty approved services, for a lot less than the main dealers.
Mercedes, BMWs, Audi's are everywhere here. (And was a factor in getting a Tesla in the first place.
I agree compared to Lexus the German brands are still built for maximum profit at expense of maximum quality (Mercedes in particular with the "round eye" E class were famous for rusting away and electrical faults, when they started cost cutting on steel quality and galvanizing + cheaper electrics.) It was a bit of a PR disaster for them, so they learnt lessons and did address a lot of the quality for the recent cars.
My honest opinion, is Tesla will keep making gradual improvements, but until a facelifted Model S comes out with higher quality interior in terms of fixings, plastics and dash rigidity, they are probably only 80-90% of the way there.
I have no axe to grind, I love my Model S. The cliche that it feels like I'm driving the future is true, but it still feels a bit "beta" in certain ways, and there is an air of penny-pinching in others. I'm inclined towards geeky/early adopter side of things, my more staid business partners would still opt for a Merc/BMW/Audi.
Tesla need to exceed the Germans in the perceived quality to take market share in the traditionalist demographic (which at the UK price point, is a big number of owners outside the London bubble).
The true bellwether will be the Model X. With a blank sheet design on the dash area in particular, it will be interesting to see how much more solid it feels.�
Mar 21, 2015
daniel Ox9EFD If it's true that there is no leeway in the delivery time, and even a year delay could be a disaster, it makes all the more sense to be a bit of a bean counter on quarter results.
This is a bit like trying to guess the standards of hygiene in a restaurant by looking at how clear is the bathroom. So on this note, hopefully the article on Norway deliveries is non indicative (or plain false), and that they are on the way to meet guidance for Q1.�
Mar 21, 2015
smac Given production delays at tail end of last year, it hurt D deliveries, and while Norway were always going to be a big market for AWD, the more important US market probably had enough orders and took priority.
My guess is they diverted a lot of effort into satisfying US demand, Norway suffered as a result, with a knock on for the UK market that won't now be seeing AWD cars until Q3/Q4. So overall worldwide the numbers will settle, but we will see the repercussions in dips in Norway Q1 figures, and UK Q2 figures.�
Mar 21, 2015
Krugerrand You're making the same mistake as so many others. One market does not a quarter make. Nor do the individual quarters matter in and of themselves. Everything up to this point and going forward has always been about Model 3. The path to it has never been more clear. The Norway delivery number for Q1 does not matter in the scheme of things. When Model 3 hits the market, nobody will remember how many Model S's were sold in Q1 of 2015, nor will it hold any individual significance. Norway will definitely be remembered for being an important market, in at least as far as the early Model S years goes, and many of us thank Norway for having embraced Tesla and helped make Model S the success story it is and thereby helping the path to Model 3.
I'm expecting a ton of negative Tesla articles this year, when the spending ticks up in preparation for Model 3 execution. Claims of bankruptcy around the corner, being in the twelfth hour, more about how demand has plateaued/diminished/dried up etc., etc... I'll be tuning it all out and spending my time following Model X reviews, Gigafactory progress, expansion of the SuperCharger Network, stores/galleries, SC's, dealership conquests and so on. Tesla has long since proven (to me) that they can manage the money end of things, I don't need to count the pennies or the millions from quarter to quarter.�
Mar 21, 2015
sundaymorning So very true.
While I understand why investors are cautious over M3 time frame, I feel that factoring the historical time frame of MS and MX delays may not be as warranted as one assumes. Model S delays were a contribution of many understandable factors:
1. An inexperienced Tesla working on a new product.
2. Instead of using Lotus chassis, Tesla had to design their own. No prior experience to learn from.
3. Almost every component to produce alphas were outsourced, meaning the MS cost $1 million a piece to make instead of $50-$80k. This greatly hindered Tesla's ability
to mobilize forward as parts weren't readily available and highly expensive in a time when liquid capital was a nuisance.
4. Tesla designed a totally new infotainment system, never been tried by anyone in the auto industry before, no predecessor to mimic or learn from.
--had cash problems.
5. New battery design & new skateboard design which again, had no predecessor to emulate.
6. Software bugs were everyday struggles: door, largest panoramic roof, lights, etc..
7. Attracting reputable engineers were challenging.
--ran into more cash problems...
8. Lacked sufficient manpower & experience to mobilize orders of new robotics and meet deadlines.
9. Many hours went into dead projects, such as the 2 gear shift trial but gained lots of insight.
--yet more cash problems.
10. All the rigorous testing in crash, safety, handling, etc. had to be done twice, three times before launch.
--did I mention cash problems?
Now the S launches! Applause applause, hugs, cheers, kisses, cries. Moving onto X
1. A more experienced and confident Tesla emerges to work on a not so entirely new product.
2. Old chassis, some new modifications...
3. Majority of parts for Alphas can now be produced in house.
4. Same infotainment as S with lots more modifications to capability (similar to D, autopilot, navigation, and more).
5. Same skateboard design with modifications, likely same batteries as well...
6. Software bugs continue to bite, but no worries, we're well staffed.
7. Engineers from the likes of AAPL, GOOGLE, FACEBOOK, Mercedes, Aston Martin come pouring in at the boatloads.
8. Still lacks manpower due to demand. Damn you demand!
9. A bazillion more cash pours into more dead projects, but invaluable insight was acquired for launching rockets.. damn it Space X, you always get the good stuff. Oh wait, Space X sometimes shares valuable insights through their own failures. NVM this is a FWB arrangement and should be of discretion so shhhhhh this never happened...
10. Elon: Rigor is key!
1st trial: we are the worlds best and littlest car company, we have standards and set examples, so why can't I get those gull wing doors to work properly? Fix it delay it!
2nd trial: What the hell is wrong with the center row of seats in here, it looks like New Orleans after Catrina, didn't I say museum? Think Mona Lisa in the Louvre and try this thing again..
3rd trial: what? You have to drive this big thing around town too? This X thing should really drive itself by now!! no no, we're doing this all wrong. Delay it.
4th trial: Ok, so it can drive itself, but can it park itself is the real question? I'm thinking out loud here, but what if it parks and the charger connects itself like a snake? "For realz" that would be cool, no?
Really though, I think the delays in X were due to Elon's high expectation for a SUV that again, had no predecessor to emulate. We know how Elon is, he wants the car to rock! The X as we know it, will be like the D on steroids with monster gull wings and improved software version 7, 8 or 9. The bugs I'm sure will be ironed out as they are being tested on current fleets of 70,000 Model S, data are being collected daily for analytics and modifications are made to fit the TESLA standard.
Technically, the M3 project started in 2013 with the hire of the Aston Martin executive. In 2014 we see Tesla file patents for Lithium Air. That's 4 years of modifications and testing, can it be on time? I think it can, will it be delayed? Maybe. Are there risks involved, yes but what investments do we know of that don't have risks? Will this thing sell, you bet! Are the stakes higher? Ask Panasonic...
Instead of listing challenges that TESLA may face, the list above was meant to show us how Tesla has tackled those challenges. Sure X was delayed, but it could very well be on time had Elon wished to weed out all the cool features. Regular seating, regular software, regular doors, etc. M3 will be pretty cool, will Elon want it cooler than the X? I think not... right now as it stands, Tesla is much more equipped and prepared than 2012 for the design and testing of M3. The latest feature and software release is a teaser for MX and M3 IMO.�
Mar 21, 2015
wayner To me UK sales seem very weak compared to places like BE, DK and NL. Why is this? Is it due to the like of RHD? And you do see some larger cars in the UK like Land Rovers and other SUVs, like Lexus vehicles.�
Mar 21, 2015
maoing What? UK is supposed to be the 2nd biggest market in Europe just next to Norway.
�
Mar 21, 2015
wayner i am going from the data shown in post 738. Maybe those four months are skewed but certainly the UK is behind NL and way behind the other markets I mentioned on a per capita basis - DK has 1/10 the population and BE has 1/5. Plus the UK has many uber rich that can afford a Model S.�
Mar 21, 2015
smac Tesla Motors UK and European Focus in 2015 - TESLARATI.com
Tesla UK has been doing pretty well. There are some real tax perks that help (0% tax if given as a company car, and lots of people own their own small businesses / consultancies to run it through, so it's a good way of extracting a bonus without paying tax on the earnings. This does get worse from April rising to c.2% per year of the cars list price, then c.3% the subsequent April).
London is obviously very affluent, and you get exemption from congestion charges worth '000s per year and free (up to 4hr IIRC) parking in some areas of the city.
The Model S is still a big car for the UK saloon market, where E Class Mercs are far more common than S Class, (I'd argue the size rather than the price is the issue). However size doesn't seem to hurt Range Rover's sales though which are very common.�
Mar 21, 2015
wayner If there are all of those perqs plus a large, affluent population and a relatively strong currency then why isn't the UK the number one market in Europe for Tesla?�
Mar 21, 2015
smac Image / brand recognition is a big one. Plus lot's of non driving people in London in part due to lack of offstreet parking. I guess same reason Manhattan isn't flooded with Tesla's? (Though, I'm speculating last time I visited NY was pre-Tesla)
The other big problem is heavily discounted finance deals. You can get an AMG C63, for less than an S60 on finance, and to most people the AMG has more "car park" presence.
An A6 diesel is half per month, and the tax savings are a struggle to justify unless you are doing really big mileage (for free on the Superchargers)�
Mar 21, 2015
aarontayto To the UK market the Tesla looks quite boring (simply on appearance). I've got a p85d on order, I don't really care what people think of how my car looks. Most people I show it to are surprised it looks so plain/boring/generic saloon.�
Mar 21, 2015
maoing If Telsa is not doing well in big EU countries UK, Germany, France, Spain and you name it, it's really risky to mainly rely on a 5 million population country Norway to sustainably contribute 50% of the Europe sales.�
Mar 22, 2015
matbl What is unreasable or incorrect with these assumptions? Please read carefully and if you don't agree, please describe what is actually wrong.
Facts:
A. There are sensors that can do this just fine at speeds above 140 kph and has been for years.
AND
B. It's obviously not impossible to develop software for such a system using those sensors since it have existed in other cars for years
Assumption based on the facts:
C. Tesla deliberately chose a sensor or designed sofware that limits the functionality. I call that ignoring what they have themselfves identified as a key market since it will actually limit sales in that market.
OR
D. Tesla made a mistake in either hardware design or software design that limits the functionality. I call this half-ass since the obvious thing would have been to redesign it.
There isn't really room for anything else to have happened. Or can you come up with another scenario?
�
Mar 22, 2015
Johan They were unable to source enough parts of good enough quality and reliability as they were about to ramp up production. So they made a decision: individual sensors are not important enough to delay ramp up, this is one of those minor features where we'll have to compromise and "make it perfect" later and for now "just good enough".�
Mar 22, 2015
schonelucht That's always been the case. Between them, California and Norway might take nearly 50% of all sales. You can look at that as a glass half empty situation (what happens when you saturate those markets) or you can look at it as the glass that is half full (what happens when other regions catch up to the same demand)�
Mar 22, 2015
Matias 8And Model 3 will be in price sensitive segment. There will be competitors from manufacturers which have a couple of orders of magnitude bigger production. It is a lot harder to produce affordable good car than expensive good car.
One can not say Model 3 won't be late because it cannot be late. Happens all the time in businesses.�
Mar 22, 2015
dirkhh Certainly. The naive believe that all problems are solved is sad, but arguing against it only results in flame wars...
No kidding. Thanks for your post
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Facts can often get in the way of the "true believer", which is why this species is able to simple argue facts away by sheer will power
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Hey, I offer you a nice easy bet.
Any day before December 31st, 2017, the Model 3 ships to customers, I owe you 2 dollars. So let's say they ship December 1st, 2017, you get 60 dollars from me.
Any day after December 31st, 2017, the Model 3 ships to customers, you own me 1 dollar. So let's say they ship January 1st, 2020, you owe me 730 dollars.
Since you know that you are right and that this is a piece of cake, taking my money is a no-brainer for you, correct?�
Mar 22, 2015
Krugerrand I can come up with several possibilities, but that wasn't ever the point and you know it. Had you refrained from the accusation of Tesla being half-assed and deliberately ignoring a market, as if you knew something that you clearly do not, the conversation would have gone entirely differently.
- - - Updated - - -
I'm not motivated by money, nor do I wish to stoop to the particular level you've just embraced.�
Mar 22, 2015
Johan That's a fun bet and I'd like to take it, if you're willing. But for decency let's cap losses at either end to $1000.�
Mar 22, 2015
daniel Ox9EFD Where did you hear they are going with a 'less wild design' for model 3? I only see from interviews of Elon, even for this year the exact opposite.
This is good new for long term investors. Disappointing that even with all the press on Tesla such a detail gets missed.
Edit: Ok now I got it from the Q4 2014 call. It's reassuring that they wont take unnecessary risks.�
Mar 22, 2015
Right_Said_Fred Plain and boring? I still have dozens of people stare at my car every single day, and I've owned it for 1.5 years already. It does help to take the 21 inch wheels and a nice colour (in my case Signature Red). The black, blue and grey ones stand out less. But white and red are real eyecatchers.�
Mar 22, 2015
smac I'd argue black is eye catching when it's newly polished and freshly waxed... but it's a constant battle to keep it looking that way
My 10 year old Elise still turns more heads, and has kids pointing you out to their parents as you drive down the road. I Guess it depends what you want in a car.�
Mar 22, 2015
aarontayto I love how it looks, I've spent �100k on pre-ordering one
It doesn't stand out though, not in the eye of the average UK person who compares it to a Ford Mondeo/Vauxhall Insignia.
Tastes, thankfully, vary wildly all over the world.�
Mar 22, 2015
smac Mine was compared to a Mazda once�
Mar 22, 2015
dirkhh That's one possible response.
That's another. You're on, Johan.�
Mar 22, 2015
smac
I'd like in on this action! Who's keeping "book"?
I too am a cynical about seeing a customer car in '17. I can afford to go to $1k so if we have any other believers
P.S. @Krugerrand, the irony of your username and lack of interest in money isn't lost on me.. Love it!�
Mar 22, 2015
Johan I'm bookmarking this page, you should too! ("Keeping the books" and all that) And so let's hope TMC is intact in 2018!�
Mar 22, 2015
Auzie I am so divided on this issue. My reasoning aligns with dirkhh, but I am cheering for Johan to win (sorry dirkhh).
Maybe because Johan is the underdog in this bet (figuratively of course)�
Mar 23, 2015
Matias Tesla's designer came from Matzda. I think Matzda 6 and Model S are very much alike.
�
Mar 23, 2015
Yggdrasill I think the article is wrong in stating that it is important to beat the delivery number from March 2014. I think delivering 500-1000 Model S in Norway in March would be an excellent result. Of course, higher is better, but the record from 2014 is the highest number of delivered cars for any car model in several decades. To expect that Tesla will beat that again any time soon is very optimistic.
The number registered stood at 371 yesterday, and with 7 out of 22 working days remaining in March, the final number should end up somewhere around 544. That should make it the second most popular car in Norway in March. (After the VW Golf.)�
Mar 23, 2015
Gerardf Paris might become be an intresting market :
BBC News - Paris imposes car restrictions to fight pollution
"The city saw a severe spike in smog on Wednesday last week and briefly had the world's dirtiest air, AP news agency reported quoting Plume Labs, a monitoring company.
The mayor's office announced at the weekend that alternating number plate measures would be implemented on Monday, with exceptions for electric or hybrid vehicles as well as emergency vehicles"
City-based SuperChargers in Paris soon, following London's example ?
(I must however admit that The Model-S is 'rather big' for the narrow Paris streets).
On European sales :
On the Dutch speaking Benelux part of the forum I have seen a few mentions in the past weeks of the Tilburg site having a 'neck-breaking' number of P85D's being prepared for delivery. I have not been there myself, seen no pictures, so no proof. However the March Europe numbers might very well see a pretty good number of P85D deliveries.�
Mar 23, 2015
ScepticMatt About that...
�
Mar 23, 2015
maoing https://twitter.com/TeslaAgnostic/status/579959695328305152
371 sold through the 3rd week of March in Norway.
@ Jan. 71 sold Norway
@ Feb. 321 sold in Norway
===================
Total sold in Q1 so far: 763
For YoY comparison: 2014 Q1 sold 2056
For QoQ comparison: 2014 Q4 sold 505
�
Mar 23, 2015
Just a Reader I wonder why Tesla wants to be associated with that brand. As far as I can see Uber isn't perceived positively at all in Germany.�
Mar 23, 2015
Yggdrasill There are some rumors floating around that there are a couple of ships inbound towards the end of the week with possibly as many as 800 Model S. So, I wouldn't actually rule out breaking 1000 Model S by the end of March, just yet. We'll see.�
Mar 24, 2015
Yggdrasill As of a few hours ago, the number of Model S registered in March in Norway stood at 559. There was over 150 registrations yesterday!
Seems like some of those shipments have arrived.�
Mar 24, 2015
Auzie Go electric Norway!�
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