Jul 5, 2016
neroden The big headwind on European demand is exchange rates. The dollar is way up against all European currencies. This is going to force Tesla to increase prices in most of Europe and will therefore hurt demand.
It's times like this that I wish the US government manipulated its currency the way China does: sell lots of dollars to drive the dollar down and make our exporters more viable.�
Jul 5, 2016
ggr When you are constrained by factor X (whatever that is, let's assume battery supply for sake of argument) and factor Y (let's say demand) changes, one of two things happens. Either Y becomes the new constraint, or... nothing changes. European demand isn't, IMHO, enough to make global demand the new constraint. So I'm not worried.�
Jul 5, 2016
NicoV That is not correct. Just take a look at the 1 year history: the dollar is still in the middle of its range of the last year.�
Jul 6, 2016
schonelucht Correct, the big euro adjustment happened in 2014. There is probably going to be some effect due to the Brexit related fall of the pound though on the order of maybe a few hunderd cars per year.�
Jul 6, 2016
hobbes Detailed registration data out for Germany in June: 226 S and 16 X.
http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publikationen/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/FZ/2016_monatlich/FZ10/fz10_2016_06_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2
Also interesting that EV sales declined June 2016 yoy by 19% - I would guess that is because of the incentives that are just starting, but those are for hybrids too and those numbers are up. Are BEV buyers more sensitive to the incentives?
Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Monatliche Neuzulassungen - Neuzulassungsbarometer im Juni 2016�
Jul 7, 2016
neroden Well, apparently the currency movements in Norway were also prone to raising the price of Teslas, and caused sales to slide. That and Britain's fall in the pound will probably have a pretty substantial effect.
Thanks for pointing out that the euro hasn't moved against the dollar much. Hopefully Tesla can make up the drop in Norway and Britain sales in the Eurozone, which has been a persistently weak market so far. I do not understand why it's been weak, so maybe it will become strong without warning?�
Jul 7, 2016
RobStark The Norwegian Krone slide was precipitated by a slide in Oil prices.
Which hurt the real economy.
The slide in Pound Sterling is psychological and can recover next week or next month.
USD to Euro is .90 as of today.
USD to Pound Sterling is .78 as of today
USD to Norwegian Krone is 8.51 as of today
![[?IMG]](https://encrypted.google.com/finance/chart?biw=911&bih=445&espv=2&q=CURRENCY:USDNOK&tkr=1&p=5Y&chst=vkc&chs=229x94&chsc=1.5&ei=16B-V8SMI8yojwOU3rPACQ)
�
Jul 11, 2016
schonelucht Model X deliveries in Europe continue to trickle in. For example in Norway, after 11 cars in June, there was one additional delivery already in July. Model S deliveries keep sliding however : only 17 for the first week with July on pace to be the slowest month since 2014.�
Jul 19, 2016
AustinPowers Well, I can only speak for Germany, but over here I guess part of the reason is Tesla's pricing policy. Take the Model S. Ever since its launch its price has increased year after year, and quite a bit at that. It used to be simply an expensive vehicle, now it is a pure luxury car. That fact severely limits its market potential. There used to be an expectation that BEVs would get cheaper over time, as batteries drop in price and other economies of scale begin to take effect. The opposite has happened over here, at least with Tesla. Of course a Nissan Leaf has become ever cheaper over time.
Remember, even a naked bare-bones base S60 (non-D) is 77K Euro (85K USD) over here.
Add in a few options (metallic paint, pano roof, AP, premium upgrade, cold-weather package, air-suspension) and your S60 (still non-D, standard wheels, standard seats & trim, no sound package, no rear child seats, no onboard charger upgrade) is already over 90K Euro (100K USD). A fully optioned S60 (non-D) is 101K Euro (112K USD). For that you already get a very well-optioned S-class (for example S 300 h). And we are still only talking about an S60, not even the D, let alone anything like a 75, 90 or even a P90.
Now I am not trying to suggest that the S-class would be a real alternative as of course its electric-only range is pitiful, I only wanted to highlight one possible reason for the lacklustre sales figures. And the fact that Tesla is not going to profit from our new EV incentive program won't help either.
Of course, Germany is a "rich" country, but the majority of car buyers still doesn't have the budget for a Model S or X. And even those a bit more well off usually buy cars in the 50K to 80K Euro range max. The market for 100K+ Euro cars is marginal.
It will need the Model 3 to truly make sales figures pick up. Model X won't do the trick as it is even more expensive that the S (base Model X 60 starts at 87K Euro / 97K USD).�
Jul 19, 2016
RobStark And yet Model S is top selling BEV in Germany for June 2016.
Pl Model Sales
1 Tesla Model S 226
2 Renault Zoe 225
3 Renault Twizy 101
4 Volkswagen e-Golf 97
5 Audi A3 e-Tron 96
And did 3rd best overall in its class of car.
PI Model June 2016
1 Mercedes CLS 319
2 Audi A7 268
3 Tesla Model S 226
4 BMW 6-Series 131
5 Porsche Panamera 80
EV Sales: Germany June 2016�
Jul 19, 2016
AustinPowers Quite correct, but look at the absolute numbers: 226 (and that is in a end-of-quarter month, Jan through May was 38 - 91 - 267 - 86 - 50). That is miniscule, just like the other cars in its class. Total new registrations in June were 339,563 (of which said luxury vehicles made up 2,848 or 0.84% in total - 899 of which were Mercedes S class by the way). Like I said, the market potential for vehicles in that price range is negligeable. Of course, the Model S did quite well in its segment, but the question neroden had to which I answered (for Germany) was why the market for Tesla was so weak in Europe in general.
Now take a look at cars in the price bracket a top of the line Model 3 will likely end up with (I would put an educated guesstimate at around 55 to 60K Euro) - numbers are for June of course:
Merc C class: 6,681
Merc E class: 3,748
Audi A4: 6,874
Audi A5: 1,934
Audi A6: 3,604
BMW 3series: 3,681
BMW 4series: 1,785
BMW 5series: 2,857
VW Passat: 7,006
Now imagine the sales potential for Model 3.
What is important to know also is that the new incentive scheme has only just launched. The effects will therefor only be noticeable from sales of mid-July and onwards as the incentive can't be applied for retroactively.�
Jul 19, 2016
vgrinshpun I do not understand how you can draw comparisons between S60 and S300 h. The S300 h is an example of nice coachwork underpinned by underpowered, outdated (Diesel !!!) 4-cylinder powertrain. Tesla S60, on another hand, has the most technologically advanced powertrain in the world, unmatched by anything currently produced by other companies. S60 beats S300h by almost two seconds in 0-62 - an eternity as far as performance is concerned (5.8 vs. 7.6 seconds).
Simply put, half of the car is missing in S300 h - I bet opening the hood would reveal enough space for a person to stand inside. These two cars are not even in the same league.�
Jul 19, 2016
adiggs Pretty clearly to me - they were being compared on the basis of being similarly priced.�
Jul 19, 2016
neroden Hmm. Interesting points here.
What is the situation with import taxes, and for that matter, VAT, on Teslas sold in Germany?
It is quite possible that Tesla receives more revenue for a Model S sold in the US -- especially after considering shipping costs -- even though the selling price to the customer in Germany is higher than in the US. If this is the case, then Tesla will pretty much ignore low sales in Europe as long as they can sell more in the US.�
Jul 19, 2016
vgrinshpun Well, by this standard Tesla wins hands down: better technology and more performance at the same price, except, of course, if customer values coach work above everything else...�
Jul 19, 2016
RobStark Good analysis.
I was under the impression Model S was a mass market car and Tesla was already a mass market auto manufacture.�
Jul 19, 2016
schonelucht In the German market, the ability to maintain a top speed is a more important performance metric. I still think that's one of the reason why Tesla is doing a little worse in that country than you'd expect compared with for example neighbouring Belgium.�
Jul 19, 2016
vgrinshpun Not sure I follow this - Model S has no problem maintaining top speed...
I think that the main impediment to the growth in German market is the presence of domestic auto manufacturers that enjoy support of German government and people...�
Jul 19, 2016
AustinPowers Exactly what adiggs said.
@vgrinshpun: Of course you are right, and I totally agree with you, but I am not in the market for either of these cars anyway. It all came down to answering neroden's question of why the market is so weak, to which I replied and tried to explain.
Problem is, over here BEV tech is not (yet) seen as "better" by the majority of people. Quite the contrary, many only see its problems (range, recharge times, price, longterm reliability). And performance is also relative. As I have agreed to in another post, maintainable performance is what most people want over here. Now again, I am not talking about myself, but about the majority of the car buying public (not just in the luxury car segment) in Germany.�
Jul 19, 2016
schonelucht AMG models have top speeds limited to 300km/u, which makes the 250km/u top Tesla performance seem mundane. Secondly, at more common speeds (even on the autobahn 300km/u is rarely achieved) charging time quickly becomes dominant in a way that it doesn't for an ICE.�
Jul 19, 2016
AustinPowers Don't know about import taxes to be honest, but our VAT rate is 19%. Actually on the lower side when compared to other European countries (France, UK: 20%, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain: 21%, Italy: 22%, Finland: 24%, Norway, Denmark, Sweden: 25%). Switzerland only has 8% VAT, but even so their prices for almost everything are generally much higher than over here. One of the most expensive countries to live in actually.
Werrrrry funny
Of course it's not a mass market car, but can you remember the time when Elon though he could sell 10K Model S per year in Germany?
Otoh, if the Model S is such a great car (rhetorical question of course, I know it is), why indeed doesn't it sell better over here? The S class sold almost 900 in June, at least such a number could therefor be attainable. Now this takes me back to what vgrinshpun said. Yes, the Model S is in a different league than an S 300 h for example, but many people over here still prefer that league, unfortunately, especially in that price range.
Of course not. But as @schonelucht said, even when you travel at realistic Autobahn speeds like around 100mph (which is actually what most people try to maintain, everything above is only possible for relatively short stretches at a time - too many speed limits and construction works otherwise), range drops dramatically on the Model S, not so on an S 300 h (or similar ICE).
Now please don't get me wrong, I would prefer the Model S any time, but we are talking about the majority of people over here who can afford such a car, and they actually prefer maintainable speed (not necessarily top speed, but high speed over longer periods of time) and the "coachwork" you mentioned.�
Aug 1, 2016
schonelucht Norway numbers from MrBacardi : 44 Model S (96 last quarter, 222 last year) and 23 Model X. The official statistics say 66 but they don't split up by model.
Others from their respective statistics offices : Austria, no split by model given : 41 (38 last quarter, 67 last year), Sweden : 57 Model S (52 last quarter, 103 last year), Finland, no split by model given : 11 (1 last quarter, 32 last year)
I think this sample is already large enough to conclude that the extra 3000 cars in the pipeline were not Model S's going to Europe because they'd be delivered by now yet it's clear that the downtrend is continuing. A small turn around is possible near the end of this quarter when Tesla will deliver the first cars with a 60kWh battery in Europe. Although, based on VIN assignment, that kick will be quite modest. Better news is to be expected from the Model X. This month is likely very modest (the Netherlands for example is 2), but this will ramp up much more quickly. Still, I see Tesla only just surpassing its all time high of 5827 European deliveries in one quarter, even with both models. And even that isn't guaranteed at all!�
Aug 1, 2016
vgrinshpun I bet that the range on Model S and on MB S300 h at 100mph will drop similarly. if anything, the Models S hit will be less at it is more aerodynamic car and at 100mph most of the losses are due to the drag. Quoting from the memory, there is a video around of MS running 120mph for about 25 miles, and getting energy consumption about 1.8 x of rated. so for 90D that would mean a range of about 160 miles at 120mph... I think one can get 200 miles of range in 90D at 100 mph.
EDIT: The video is here. My memory did not quite serve well on this one. The run was 25 miles, but sustained speed was 125 mph, and energy consumption was 840WH/mi. Assuming 80kWh useable energy in 90D yields range of about 95 miles of range. Given that 90D has about 300miles of range at 65mph and 95 miles at 125 mph, I believe that my original wag of 200 miles of range at 100mph still stands.�
Aug 1, 2016
schonelucht Of course the range drops approximately the same. That's just physics. But when you are doing 4 hours between refills, then 10 minutes getting gas versus 30 minutes supercharging isn't too bad. However at 200km/u, you are refilling every hour and then it makes a big impact on your total journey time.�
Aug 1, 2016
vgrinshpun I did not travel on autobans, but I am very skeptical that one can run at 100mph for hours... Even if one can, the fatigue at these high sustained speeds for long periods of time would be very pronounced. My point is that this "disadvantage" of EV is more theoretical than practical.
The refill for 90D at 100mph would be at about two hours mark, not 1 hour...�
Aug 1, 2016
jkk_ As far as I know, no Xs have been yet delivered in Finland (not counting the test drive car).�
Aug 1, 2016
schonelucht In the best of circumstances, consumption at 100mph is 400Wh/km. Take into account brick buffer, maybe a hill here and there, some cold weather, in practical circumstances there is no way you will drive more than 220km at those speeds without recharging. That's less than 90 minutes. A fully fueled MB at those speeds will run for 500km. Or put differently, you will be supercharging at least twice between Berlin and Munich while you will be stopping once for gas. And yes, people do drive those kind of distances at high speed.�
Aug 1, 2016
vgrinshpun The 640 Wh/mile (400Wh/km) at 100 mph is gross overestimation. My three year old P85 consumes about 325Wh/mile at 75mph with some up and downgrades (as I observe every day on my regular commute). The 90D will do markedly better, say around 300Wh/mile.
As seen from the video I posted above consumption at the sustained 125mph was 840Wh/mile. The consumption at the mid-point of 100mph can conservatively be estimated to be significantly less than 300 + 840 / 2 = 570. This proves that 640Wh/mile at 100 mph is way off.
I am going to measure what the consumption in my P85 is at 100 mph... The 90D will do markedly better�
Aug 1, 2016
maoing Thanks for the updates. What the heck for those 5000 cars in transit by end of Q2? Looking forward to seeing insideEVs estimates for NA.
�
Aug 1, 2016
schonelucht Likewise would appreciate any information available on Tesla imports in China and other countries. We really need to understand this number because it will likely make or break Q3.�
Aug 1, 2016
TMSE I am not very familiar with EV incentive programs in Europe. Were there any major changes in those since last year potentially driving down sales? Or, is it just a temporary aberration?
One thing I noticed is that China deliveries are sooner than in Europe. MS delivery in China is currently late September, while most Europe delivery is late October. One reason could be that it is a lot cheaper and faster to ship to China, as ships going in that direction are mostly empty and shipping charges are at throwaway prices. Any other reason?�
Aug 1, 2016
maoing Will try, but little hope on that. As I stated in my recent posts in China thread, I don't think S/X sales going well in China.�
Aug 1, 2016
schonelucht Denmark is the big one where incentives are worse but on the other hand the Netherlands and Belgium are better.
Really don't know. Maybe Chinese customers are less tolerant of longer lead times and Tesla is trying to prioritise them? Production capacity is/should be well above order rate so we should expect lower wait times across the board anyway over the next few months.�
Aug 1, 2016
Fallenone From what I've heard from a recent (July) Chinese customer, it took about 2 weeks for him from placing an order of Model S to Tesla's completion of building the vehicle. Then it takes about 3 weeks to be shipped, 1-2 weeks to clear custom and delivered. This pretty much matches the delivery estimate on the website. I don't know how long is shipping to Europe but since Fremont is located at one of the largest port on the west coast, I imagine it would take a bit longer time for shipping?�
Aug 2, 2016
schonelucht Tesla delivered 51 cars in the Netherlands for July 2016. I believe this to be 49 Model S (135 last quarter, 115 last year) and 2 model X.�
Aug 2, 2016
bonaire The 5000 in transit is, of course, a "Tesla number". It can include:
- Model X customer orders placed ready to deliver during June but needing final adjustments
(my local Tesla store had roughly 19 Model X on July 2nd on the lot)
- Model X Marketing, Inventory and Demo vehicles being spread through the world
- Model S Inventory/Demo replacements with new look across world locations
- any remaining Model S Inventory made with old-look
- Model S Marketing cars of all sorts
- Model S customer orders of all sorts
- Cars out the back door at Fremont in the staging lot are "in-transit". three days of production is 700+ cars alone (June 28-30) if running at 2000/wk and if really working 7-days.
They said "cars in-transit" and not "all are customer orders waiting for final delivery". We cannot assume all were "customer custom orders", of course.�
Aug 2, 2016
Mario Kadastik bonaire: maybe you didn't read the Tesla press release, but it had:
So those were CUSTOMER ordered vehicles. The gap between produced and delivered and in transit is the inventory cars for marketing etc.�
Aug 2, 2016
bonaire Ok - got it and will be looking to see how the EU sales numbers play out at end of August. Perhaps the cars in transit ended up in Tilburgh and needed final assembly before final European delivery.�
Aug 2, 2016
maoing Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Based on insideeves number, it's obvious part of 5K goes to US S delivery. But overall the math for 5K doesn't work. Another explanation is TM shut down the assembly line for 2 weeks in July, so the production loss offsets those 5K number.�
Aug 2, 2016
TMSE We would have known if there were any production shutdown. There weren't any.�
Aug 2, 2016
green48 These Europe and US numbers for July aren't adding up. For 5000 in-transit cars, these aren't very significant jumps in July deliveries. Is it possible that InsideEV has made some big mistake with their US numbers? Specifically with their Model X #s? They seem low. I know they're historically pretty accurate, does anyone know exactly how InsideEV makes their estimates?
Also, does anyone have monthly figures for Asia? That may be a significant # of those 5000 cars as well...�
Aug 2, 2016
mmd Funny. How would you have known? Tesla never announces these shutdowns. It is not a positive news.
Aren't you the one spreading rumors yesterday of 8000 deliveries in July?
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
�
Aug 2, 2016
Fallenone Check out Bjorn's video using his XP90DL on the German Autobahn. He drove 14 minutes covering 38.7 km with an average speed of 166 km/h. Range at start was 299 km with 296 Wh/km, at end was 191 km with 424 Wh/km. He was doing crazy stuff though. Went as high as 248 km/h.�
Aug 2, 2016
maoing My elementary school math leads me to make such speculation. Otherwise 5K number doesn't work at all. The most challenging part for 2nd half of 2016 is the demand instead of production, mark my words. My prediction for annual delivery ranked 2nd for 2014, and I predicted TM will miss 2015 guidance. The same prediction still holds for 2016.�
Aug 2, 2016
vgrinshpun Thanks, I actually looked through this video, but I doubt that we can extract any information pertinent to our discussion. MX is much heavier vehicle with larger frontal area, but most importantly, there was traffic, and in spite of the 40km stretch of unlimited autobahn in front of him, Bjorn was doing multiple full on accelerations from 75 to as high as 150MPH, so energy consumption is not really representative of the sustained 100mph autobahn driving.
The video, though, demonstrated the larger point I was making: that sustained driving at 100mph can be seemingly done theoretically, but in practice is not really possible...�
Aug 2, 2016
schonelucht Belgium reported 20 deliveries (32 last quarter, 38 last year)�
Aug 2, 2016
Fallenone When will UK and German give numbers? These two are the biggest now aren't they?�
Aug 2, 2016
TMSE It is not about your elementary math prowess. It is about common sense.
Thousands of line workers work in the factory. You think news about any shutdown event doesn't get leaked out? Given the very high short interest, you think those shorters don't have people in place to report on such things?�
Aug 2, 2016
schonelucht I don't think it's that impossible. 2 week of US orders = 3000, 6 weeks of EU order = 1200, 4 weeks of CH orders = 800.�
Aug 2, 2016
schonelucht UK unfortunately will only have solid numbers for us in December. We may have a guesstimate on the 6th. I just checked Germany and it reported as well. 89 for July which compares with 86 last quarter and 132 last year.
Without any surprises, July total should be around 600, maybe a bit more but probably not over 700. Around 50 of those are Model X.�
Aug 2, 2016
Fallenone Thank you sir.�
Aug 2, 2016
RobStark In Q4 last year I said you were likely to win the contest and you said you were overly optimistic. That Tesla would likely do much worse.
For this year I predicted 77,777 units. I am liking my chances.�
Aug 2, 2016
TMSE I guess I am not reading it right. Was it 89 for July compared to 86 for all of last quarter or April? And, 132 is for July of last year or all Q2 of last year? Thanks.�
Aug 2, 2016
maoing If I would be shorts (definitely not), I would keep such information as secrete and then release such information when they try to cover. Btw, it's just my speculation, we shall see Q3 guidance tomorrow.�
Aug 2, 2016
maoing Thanks for the information. The number leads to me think it's 2nd QoQ and YoY decline quarter even including X delivery.�
Aug 2, 2016
schonelucht Sorry when I compare it is always on a month to month basis. So last quarter means 3 months ago (April vs July) and last year means 12 months ago (July'15 vs July '16). Last quarter, Tesla had 362 deliveries over the 3 months in Germany. Last year, they had 402 deliveries over the 3 months of the second quarter and 395 over the 3 months in the third quarter.�
Aug 2, 2016
schonelucht Remember those are delivery rates for the beginning of a quarter which are always at a much lower rate than deliveries later in last month. It's basically impossible we will decline q-o-q from Q2 to Q3 when combining S and X.�
Aug 2, 2016
maoing Theoretically we should see growth in Q3. But so far the July number is very confusing, even considering the lower rate in the first month of a quarter, but we all knew 5K in transit by end of June, so we should expect better July number. It's going to be fun to watch Q3 guidance tomorrow.�
Aug 3, 2016
maoing It's even more fun that no Q3 guidance was given today. I guess market would expect 20K-25K for Q3 delivery. With existing July data, it's going to be very challenging for TM.�
Aug 4, 2016
bonaire Given numbers so far, we know:
- H1 2016 in Europe were below H1 2015 And July is not shaping up to be good. Cars in transit still in transit, it appears.
- Europe may actually present sales volume of 2016 less than 2015, inclusive of Model X.
Model X Production reservation ratio was 1:4.8 for Europe:USA on Sept 7, 2015 - not long before they stopped showing the #s.
The ratio on 9/7/15 was 4287:20612.
Some on both sides of the Atlantic may have chosen to switch to Model S since allowing for heightened MS deliveries.
If Model X is to be strong in Europe it seems it will be late Q3 and Q4.
Total Model X to Europe in 2016 (barring 5-seat orders) is probably in the 4000 to 4500 range inclusive of Sigs.
The 5150 cars in transit is supposed to be named customers and not inventory layout. What we should see is a better July/August in Europe than we are starting to see now. Let's review early Sept after August is done. We do know Norway is slowing and Denmark is "done".
What I believe happened was Q2 was initially setup to build and deploy the new look Model S (and was discussed on Q2 ER call last night) and slowed up some customer order builds and the last couple weeks of Q2 were a flurry of customer order builds - they then became "in transit". In my tracking data, I can look at the Prod Start dates of Model S and see relatively few production starts in April (19), then May (97), 1st two weeks June (66) and final two weeks (63) making 129 "samples" for June. This seems to lead to favoring inventory and Model X builds earlier in Q2 for transit through the quarter and making customer orders for MS a little later. It also helps some customers who are eager to pay for their cars when Tesla presents the finance document to the customer - pay for it, even if car was in transit. A car paid for while in-transit places the monetary figure into the Customer Deposits accounting item - and it shows up in the earnings report (yesterday). That number was very large this time around and it allows analysts to view that number as a net positive, even "Huge!". The data supports this because the MS Vin # rate of issue actually fell the last two months of Q2 on a weekly basis. Blocks of inventory build-out Vin #s for Model S (refresh) were setup at the end of Q1 and would have been built earlier in the quarter. Many of these were with the old-fascia front end (for the USA) P90D/P90DL and new (for Europe), many also P90D, within the same Vin # ranges. I've collected hundreds of such Vin #s and all point to being inserted into the flow on 3/30/16 (134xxx-136xxx) and again 4/6/16 (1377xx). More blocks of fewer occur later in April. Were they part of the 45% "increased orders" of Q1?
All I am saying is that the cars in transit were a by-product of building inventory ahead of customers and possibly in order to cause the sales profile like we saw for Q1 (sluggish MS sales, 5150 cars in transit, high Customer Deposits).
I present this information simply as guidance if you guys are not actually doing this deep due diligence.
In the big picture? Doesn't matter. But data is objective and realistic. I like data because it is the only thing we can trust.�
Aug 4, 2016
RobStark Europe June 2016 YTD 6,845 Model S
Europe June 2015 YTD 7,382 Model S
Difference 537 units or - 7.27%
EV Sales: Europe June 2016
EV Sales: Europe June 2015 (Top 30)�
Aug 4, 2016
TMSE is it because Europe is waiting for model X? I thought Europeans do not prefer SUVs like MX.
Or, is it due to something else?�
Aug 4, 2016
Spidy I don't understand why people expect the sales of a car to just continue growing after 4 years.The Model S is getting older and the refresh really wasn't significant. Meanwhile Mercedes launched the E-Class and Porsche the new Panamera. BMW 5-Series and Audi A6 are following soon.
Almost all cars have the cycle of high sales when they launch and then dropping numbers. The only reason Tesla was a bit different in the beginning was that the production ramp up was slower and it took some time for EVs to catch on. In addition the currency exchange rate also doesn't help Tesla, which btw. is already interesting regarding the UK where I don't think they have adjusted it yet.�
Aug 4, 2016
RobStark It is because Tesla has not reached market saturation in terms of mindshare or geographic footprint. Tesla is not even in Southern Italy or the Iberian Peninsula. Up to now 10% of Europeans that buy cars in this class know about Tesla? As we get closer to 50% and then 100% of Europeans knowing about Tesla and having a local service center many expect Model S sales to grow.�
Aug 4, 2016
RobStark My guess is stronger Dollar vs Euro, Pound Sterling,and Norwegian Kroner.
And a bit of "osbourning" with Auto Pilot II and Model 3 on the horizon.
Europeans keep harping Model S is too big. Many even say Model 3 is too big and want something smaller.
Switzerland 2016 June YTD 795 Model S
Switzerland 2015 June YTD 638 Model S
Difference is 157 units or up 19.7%
The Swiss Franc is doing just fine against the USD.�
Aug 4, 2016
schonelucht If you look at the charts, the EUR/USD is pretty much exactly the same for 2015 and 2016. The big fall for the Kroner happened in 2014 and British sales are actually going up. I don't think currency exchange rates can explain the drop between 2014 and 2015.�
Aug 4, 2016
RobStark
I am talking about 1st half 2015 vs 1st 2016.
And the drop in the Pound is recent. That effect, if any, will be in the second half.�
Aug 4, 2016
AustinPowers I would guess for Germany there are at least three contributing factors:
1) The price hike. Model S price has risen year after year and is now way beyond what would be considered good value by many potential customers.
2) SUV's have become quite popular in recent years, so waiting for Model X might have been a reason for some.
3) Model 3 on the horizon. I would wager most people who can afford a model from the current lineup have by now bought their S or ordered their X. But many people who want a Tesla can't afford an S or X, so they are waiting for the 3. I am sure Model 3 numbers in Germany will be quite impressive. For example I know only of one colleague who has a Model S, but quite a few who have put down reservations for a Model 3.
I am particularly interested in seeing how Model X registrations develop over here. The numbers show 16 for June, the first month with separate numbers for Model X. Haven't got access to the July numbers as yet.�
Aug 5, 2016
Model 3 It happed in 2014 AND 2015, and Tesla waited a bit to adjust the price to the new exchange-rate (which happened in a lot of smaller price adjustments in this years), so most of the time the car was lower priced then if they had used the official at-the-time exchange from US price to Norwegian price. But now it is about correct, except for the Model X where they seems to use an higher exchange-rate then the official/what they use on the Model S, probably in an expectation that the NOK should continue to fall.�
Aug 5, 2016
schonelucht Makes no difference at all : average exchange rate in the first half of 2015 : 0,895735 eurocents to the dollar; first half of 2016 : 0,89609 eurocents to the dollar. Less than a tenth of a percent difference.
I thought you were talking about 1st half of 2015 vs 1st of 2016.�
Aug 5, 2016
Spidy Btw. has Tesla still not adjusted the Pound? If the UK continues to be the leader in EUsales isn't that going to have a big impact on the margins?
�
Aug 5, 2016
schonelucht There is a first guesstimate for the UK numbers. Other imports were 227, which is the upper limit. Historically Tesla takes a bit over 70% of those, so a good estimate is 162 cars (last quarter guesstimate 164, last year 107)�
Aug 5, 2016
RobStark In 1st half of 2016 is when we saw previous run up in the dollar manifest in higher Tesla prices and lower deliveries . Like many companies, Tesla tries to resist price hikes based on currency fluctuations.
Yes, I made mistake lumping the pound in with other European currencies.
End result is stronger dollar has led to higher prices in European currencies than have led to lower deliveries.
The exact point when currency fluctuations turn into higher prices and when exactly that turns to lower orders and when exactly those lower orders turn into lower deliveries is beside the point.�
Aug 5, 2016
schonelucht Sure, by handwaving exact timings it's possible to support any conclusion. Anyway, we'll see with the introduction of the 60 to the European market if sales pick up in Q3/Q4 versus Q1/Q2.�
Aug 5, 2016
bonaire The 60 is the right car for "most people" (many of those "most people" who also don't know what DC or AC is or what power/energy are). just under 200 mile range on average and most people don't drive that much per day. If they did, it would be 1000+ weeks and 50,000 mile years.
At least 45% or more of orders by named customers since June 11th re-introduction of the MS60 appear to be that MS60 variation, including to HongKong, Europe and other. The reason is people are not lured into range anxiety issues as they once were a few years ago. The more they know, the less on-board energy *and* power is needed. And, as more superchargers exist, range anxiety drops. And economically, the MS 60 is good. What they are doing with the car is back-loading it with "value" such that as a CPO they can sell it for more. How much more? maybe $4000 more - and not $9000 as a CPO option. A CPO MS60 in 3 years will definitely not be $9000 cheaper than a CPO "switch-flipped" MS75. In fact, the same kind of buyer will be wanting them to "un-switch-flip" the CPO down to a 60 if the delta is too large. At the same time, the Model 3 and other cars on the market will make MS75 or 90 even less desirable on battery capacity alone. The power aspects (hot acceleration) of P90D and P90DL will be a calling card and 3-4 year old cars will be under a demand cycle of appx 50% of original price. Just as we see now with the P85+ and P85 RWD sales. The value Musk talked about on the ER Q&A session may be good to talk-up with banking partners ("we will get thousands more at CPO time when we sell a 60 today, 75 as CPO - good for residual value") but what will that true value delta be in 3-years that the market will bear? Nobody knows - too far off.�
Aug 5, 2016
Spidy Source?�
Aug 5, 2016
bonaire Statistics of the public disclosure by a statistically significant percentage of custom orders. Since Tesla does not produce a print of the model variety orders or sales, there is no way to validate anything other than ASP (via gross vehicle revenues divided by delivery count). But the MS60 is very popular ever since June 11. And hardly anyone is stating they want a 75. Some want 90s and P90Ds. But the 75 looks "off the charts ignored" versus the 60 and 90. They sure made a lot of inventory P90D and P90DL - those can be used to make first-timers "giddy" during test drives and then even offered on big discount over letting a buyer custom order something. As we have seen, mileage, old fascia and age accumulate as discounting allowances. Not unlike dealerships of ICE vehicles.
It's simply business and economics and does not look different than any other evolving product.
Another consideration is this.
MS60 attracts in Model 3 buyers today - as they indicated on the Q2 ER Q&A call.
Where they discussed "Model 3 buyers wanted a way to get a Tesla now..."
Those Model 3 buyers may have this thought "Well, I was only going to get about 50-55 kWh in a Model 3 anyway and wasn't going to have Supercharger access standard, so MS 60 makes sense."�
Aug 5, 2016
dc_h Europe demand has been impacted by reduced or eliminated tax benefits in Norway and Denmark.�
Aug 5, 2016
bonaire I think it is time to start complaining loudly about and to agencies who are not offering even more tax fund incentives to give to EV buyers in large quantities. From CA CARB to Norwegian legislators to Denmark tax administrators. There is a lot of blame to go around in governments not offering far more money to EV enthusiasts. I think there should be a march on all world governments by EV clubs shouting for more funds to be given out to them.�
Aug 5, 2016
Spidy You realize someone has to pay for all that stuff in the end? Gas is already taxed incredible high taxed in most of Europe. Denmark and Norway tax the ***** out of premium cars. Here in Germany people are already pissed off with all the renewable energy which resulted in a hike in their electricity bill.�
Aug 5, 2016
Model 3 The tax benefits in Norway is still intact.
But other incentives like using the bus-lanes has been "temporary" stopped around Oslo (where almost the only buss-lanes that is of any real value is) - and it is temporary until about the end of 2017 where they can remove them permanently. Some places they have started to take a fee for BEV's on ferries, in some places there will be a fee for parking from 1/1 2017 and from the end of 2017 (just one and a half year to) even BEV's may have to pay for toll-roads (probably less then fossil-fuel cars). But to buy BEV's "tax free" is still intact - until the end of 2017. Exactly what will happen then is still unknown, but it is likely that it will be the 25% sales tax from 1/1 2018, but some still unknown way to get it back - up to some still unknown "roof".
So there is a lot of insecurity about the BEV benefits that has slowed down the BEV sales in Norway, and especially Tesla based on the changed exchange-rate USD/NOK.
... and I hope my Model 3 will get under this roof as I see no hope to get it before 2018�
Aug 5, 2016
bonaire I was actually being a bit sarcastic. And now, I will point you to this (NSFW word near the end)�
Aug 5, 2016
dc_h I wasn't putting a hand out, or asking for incentives. Just noting a fact.�
Aug 6, 2016
Fast Laner High there,
check out main-echo.de weekend edition aug 6th/7th "wirtschaft".
lots of articles about tesla (car collecting datas during operation, cab-driver using the new model s as taxi,
gigafactory and article and comments on tesla by owner of battery production BMZ in Karlstein (15km of Aschaffenburg).�
Aug 11, 2016
schonelucht Deliveries to Norway are picking up. We are not even halfway through August and we have 44 Model S and 36 Model X registered. Should push us to well over 100 deliveries for each model by the end of the month. For the X, mostly signatures, but also some founders, a few production cars and a few US import cars.�
Aug 14, 2016
hobbes Just checked, and now it�s already 46 S and 47 X - twice as much as all of last month!
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge�
Aug 14, 2016
schonelucht Last month was abysmal for Norway so that's not telling much. If the pace holds we will come up to about 150 of each model which would be good number. Next month hopefully marks the return of 500+ deliveries/month with a surge in production X deliveries. 1000+/month on the other hand, even with both models combined, would be quite the miracle. Maybe for christmas!�
Aug 29, 2016
Spidy Does anyone know why prices in France are much cheaper than like in Germany. Especially in the new P100D it's like 10000� with a similar amount of tax.�
Aug 29, 2016
AustinPowers Even more, 152.000 Euro versus 139.200 Euro. More than 13K Euro more over here.
And that is with 19% VAT in Germany versus 20% in France, meaning a net price of 116K Euro in France versus almost 128K in Germany.
Perhaps it's the same phenomenon like with the US and Canada, where Canadians have to pay much more for the same goods than in the US. It's the same with many other goods. Even stuff as simple as toys. Take Lego for example. Even when manufactured over here, sets are cheaper in the US than in Germany. And Teslas are not even manufactured here (don't start about final assembly in Tilburg).
Annoying to say the least. But still better than in Italy, where the price is more than 155K Euro, so about 16K Euro more than in France.�
Aug 29, 2016
neroden FWIW, and going off topic, Canadian Tesla prices will drop when batteries start being sourced from the Gigafactory, because they'll *finally* qualify for the NAFTA tarriff exemption.�
Aug 29, 2016
RobStark Doesn't Model S qualify for incentives in France but not in Germany?
I know that would not account for all the difference but a portion of it.�
Aug 29, 2016
ev-enthusiast Looks like Model X currently outselling Model S in Norway. Does this pattern apply to other European countries as well?�
Aug 29, 2016
AustinPowers No, it's definitely the price before incentives.
�
Aug 29, 2016
dc_h Source please.�
Aug 29, 2016
GoTslaGo see post #2186 by @hobbes with links to Norwegian registrations. (Thanks for the links!)
As of now there are 144 Model X registered, vs. 113 Model Ss (top color: Svart!�
Aug 29, 2016
Refie If you need some insight on the Dutch market, it is available here: Personenauto basisdata | Open Data | RDW�
Aug 30, 2016
W84M3 Belgium & the Netherlands are at 154.600 euro... So it seems France is significantly better off than other EU countries.�
Aug 30, 2016
AustinPowers I really wonder why it is so dramatically cheaper in France. What could be the reason? There doesn't seem to be any logical explanation. I would have understood the reasoning of "oh Germans are used to paying through the nose, let's make it more expensive there". But the fact that it is even more expensive in countries like Italy, Belgium or even the Netherlands, where the cars are first hitting European soil, contradicts this and is totally strange.�
Aug 30, 2016
schonelucht Maybe Tesla rolls some of the overhead costs of the local sales infrastructure into the prices?�
Aug 30, 2016
AustinPowers But does France not have a sales infrastructure too?
I mean, we are not talking about a small difference here. For that price difference, you get an extra Renault Zoe in France!�
Aug 31, 2016
ev-enthusiast I came across this chart showing new car sales in Switzerland. There is a long tradition of EV friendliness in Switzerland so It is no surprise that Tesla is selling strong there, but is it true that it's almost only the BMW 5 series that is selling better than Tesla?
BTW found the chart here: Zulassungszahlen Schweiz � TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde�
Aug 31, 2016
bonaire MX 157 Aug
MS 146 Aug
MX to date this year: 126 Sig, 5 Founder 60 Prod. (production series ramp maybe Sept?)
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge�
Aug 31, 2016
neroden Oh-kay. It's pretty bizarre that the price is different in different *eurozone* countries. Couldn't everyone buy their Teslas in France and drive them to Italy or Germany? What's gonna stop you?�
Aug 31, 2016
EinSV Based on the time I have spent in Europe, I am under the impression that the ratio of Model 3/Model S sales in Europe will be higher than in the US due to the Model 3 being a more popular size for many Europeans due to narrower roads, smaller parking spaces and perhaps personal taste. In other words, and just picking numbers out of the air, if the ratio of 3/S sales in the US is 5/1, they might be 10/1 or something along those lines in the EU over the longer term.
Any thoughts -- especially from those who live or have lived in Europe?�
Aug 31, 2016
AustinPowers Interesting question. I have absolutely no clue as to why the same item should be more than 13K Euro more expensive over here than 150 miles to the west of where I am.
With a price difference this drastic, I would even start learning French to understand the stuff on the screen (if I was in the market for a P100D to begin with).
But in all seriousness, if the price difference is similarly high for Model 3, I can see many who will seriously think about buying their car in France. I mean, we are talking a lot of money here. And even if say the difference on a Model 3 would be "only" like 5K Euro, this would still be a massive saving just by buying in a neighbouring country.�
Aug 31, 2016
ev-enthusiast I share your expectations on Model S / 3 sales ratio might lean a bit further to the Model 3 side in Europe. In fact this is negative for Tesla as Model 3 is a lot cheaper. Nevertheless I think it is realistic.�
Aug 31, 2016
AustinPowers Don't know about the exact ratio of course, but the general relation will definitely be very much in favour of Model 3.
Reasons?
For one, size, as you said. Model S (and X) are really too large for many parts of Europe. Only yesterday I walked past the Model S that I usually see every day on the P&R lot of our local train station. And guess what, since I saw it last time it has now "acquired" some "nice" yellow markings plus scratches on the passenger side of the front bumper next to the headlights and wheelarches. A clear sign of having kissed a parking garage bollard similar to one of these:
Second, or rather for many first, price. The Model 3 is priced in the range of what many people can afford or at least what fits into what they have allocated as a budget for their next car purchase. The market for cars priced like a well optioned Passat, A4, 3-series, C-class is huge in comparison to the luxury segment in which the Model S and X are positioned.
Just for comparison, sales in 2016 in Germany (Jan-Jul):
A4 / 3-series / C-class / Passat
combined : 154,435
A7,A8 / 6-series, 7-series / CLS, S-class / Panamera
combined: 15,367
A ratio of ten to one, even just taking into account those 4 model series in the Model 3 price range. And that is not even taking into account all the other popular models in that price range, just the 4 bestsellers. Whereas in the luxury-segment, there isn't much more really than the abovementioned 7 model series. Ok, perhaps some Maserati, Jaguar etc., but sales of those are more or less negligable.�
Aug 31, 2016
Troy I check the following three counties and the prices are very different. It turns out France has a 6,300 EUR government incentive applied to the purchase price before you buy it. UK has the same for �4,500. Even after these deductions, their prices are too low. My guess is, the incentives apply before VAT and therefore it reduces the VAT as well.
UK 134,612 EUR (114,200 GBP)
FR 139,200 EUR
DE 152,000 EUR
In France and UK design studio, under the black box on the right side, you can read about the 6,300� and �4,500 government grants.�
Aug 31, 2016
AustinPowers Not trying to nitpick too much, but the incentive in France is actually two different ones (6,300 Euro and 3,700 Euro for a total of 10K Euro), which is applied after the purchase and therefor doesn't reduce VAT afaik.
The fact remains that the starting price including VAT is 139,2K in France versus 152K in Germany and 154,6K in Belgium and the Netherlands. All BEFORE any possible government incentives.�
Aug 31, 2016
AustinPowers Oh and I just checked, the price difference (in percent) is even larger when it comes to most of the other Model S variants:
So in effect, factoring in the 10K government incentive, an S60 for example is almost 20K Euro less (!) to buy in France than in Germany.�
Aug 31, 2016
Troy It says already deducted from the purchase price. I used Google translate on the French web page (right click in Chrome).
![[?IMG]](https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/media/1.115834/full)
�
Aug 31, 2016
AustinPowers Unfortunately your image doesn't show in my browser. But from this I can't see what you are talking about:
It clearly states that the 139,200 Euro includes VAT, it doesn't say anything about something being deducted from the purchase price. It only shows what the effective price would be if you factored in the 10K incentive, which would be 129,200 Euro.�
Sep 1, 2016
Troy @AustinPowers,
I changed the image host from imgur to TMC. Refresh the page.�
Sep 1, 2016
AustinPowers Thank you, now it works,
But you are still wrong. What is meant by the "already deducted from the purchase price" is that, if you are eligable for the incentive (which everyone in France seems to be), the 6,300 Euro will be deducted from your purchase price (of 139,200 Euro in this case) directly. Whereas the additional 3,700 Euro are only awarded if you also trade in a Diesel - which has to be scrapped by the way, in order for you to qualify for that second incentive!
The image I took clearly shows that the 10K Euro maximum incentive only apply to the gross price, i.e. the 139,200 Euro.�
Sep 1, 2016
Troy @AustinPowers,
I looked into this subject some time ago and I know for a fact that the UK incentive is already included in the prices because it is the car manufacturer who receives the incentive, not the car buyer. The incentive has nothing to do with the buyer. Here is the source for the UK regulation. When I learned about the UK system I thought it was very smart. In comparison, the USA version is much more complicated.
Check out Nissan UK website HERE. Quote:
I believe the system in France is the same. Here is Nissan France website. Quote:
In addition, on the Tesla France web page is says "already deducted". So I'm going to trust that as well, instead your different interpretation which you have not shown any source for.
Where does it show that? It says after gas savings under the reduced price. In Google Chrome, right click to the web page and select translate.�
Sep 1, 2016
AustinPowers Not everyone uses Chrome.
It says "after gas savings and taxes". I admit I assumed that it meant only taxes. Mybad. Somehow it still doesn't add up though.
I mean, it says "includes VAT of 24.5K Euro.
The VAT rate in France is 20%, so this means the net price would be 122.5K Euro, the gross price 147K Euro.
Deduct 6.3K Euro from that, and the final price should be 140.7K Euro, not 139.2K Euro. 1.5K Euro difference.
I think I just don't get it, sorry.�
Sep 1, 2016
Troy Hi. The argument was whether or not the �6,300 was already deducted from the �139,200. Let's focus on that.
Step 1: Click here to open the French design studio
Step 2: Under the black box on the right side click on the link that says "imprimer".
Step 3. Read the numbers on this page. It says, quote:
" ... Before deduction of �6,300.00 Ecological Bonus, the price of the Model S is �145,940.00."
Step 4: On that page, it shows these 4 numbers and the equation is like this:
145,940 - 6,300 - 440 = 139,200�
Sep 1, 2016
AustinPowers Valid point, but that still doesn't explain the VAT of 24.5K Euro. Ok, perhaps rounding error.
Plus and more importantly, even at roughly 146K Euro the price difference versus the rest of the Euro-countries is still significant and not rationally justifiable.�
Sep 1, 2016
EinSV Thanks. FWIW, if true I have been viewing this as a potential positive rather than a negative. Assuming Tesla is able to generate in the neighborhood of 25% gross margins on Model 3s once the production process is optimized as EM has predicted, a large volume of Model 3s sold in Europe could make a major contribution to the bottom line.�
Sep 1, 2016
AustinPowers @Troy: thanks for the Dislike of my post.
I dislike the pricing situation of France versus the rest of the Euro-countries as well.
I mean, honestly, can you think of one good reason why someone in Belgium should be paying almost 9K Euro more even after factoring in the French government incentive? I can't wrap my head round it. What's special about the French version of Model S - is it missing the interior? Some doors? Come on, what is that almost 9K Euro difference justified/justifiable by?
If I was about to buy a P100D here in Germany, I would definitely ask my local store staff about this. It's a valid question after all.�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét