Thứ Bảy, 5 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 9

  • Mar 24, 2015
    Matias
    :smile:
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  • Mar 24, 2015
    hirox
    source?
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  • Mar 24, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Great stuff, go Norway!! What is the total number of Model S's sold in Norway to date?
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  • Mar 24, 2015
    hobbes
    There's a guy on the Norwegian EV forum who has a script he runs on this site. It's a public site for getting technical information about any car registration. All BEVs in Norway have licence plates in the format ELXXXXX, so by polling the entire range now and then, you can see which numbers are taken and which ones are yet to be assigned.

    Anyway, he's been dead accurate thus far, so I have no reason to doubt his data.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The total has now reached 6974 Model S. Plus any registered today.
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  • Mar 24, 2015
    maoing
    Thats pretty cool, as well the number of recent registrations as the scripting! Thanks for sharing. Go Norway!
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  • Mar 24, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    Keep us updated on daily based this week :)

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  • Mar 25, 2015
    Benz
    Seems March numbers have been updated: now at 693 Model S, with more to come in next days.
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  • Mar 25, 2015
    Right_Said_Fred
    March 2014:
    1,491 Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway.

    Total Q1 2014:
    2,054 Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway.
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  • Mar 25, 2015
    Panu
    For two days in a row now I saw a packed trailer with new Tesla's during my daily commute, on the opposite side of the highway, heading from The Netherlands to Germany. No evidence of high numbers ofcourse, but definitely a sign that the traditional End of Q-delivery bump is well underway.
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  • Mar 25, 2015
    RobStark
    Finland (Suomi) was added to teslamotors.com today and ordering to Finland by web order is finally possible.
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    Matias
    http://ecomento.tv/2015/03/26/elektroauto-rekordfahrt-4000-kilometer-in-zwei-tagen/

    Here is the story of Michael Willenberg, a German who got rid of his S Class and purchased a Model S.

    And drove 4000 km around Europe in 48 hrs 11 minutes setting a new record for electric cars.

    Mr Willenberg said     " a bargain;The S-Class has cost me with gasoline, maintenance and other costs about 20,000 euros per year, Tesla is only 2,000 euros. "

    So there is at least one German not only comparing Model S to S Class but replacing the latter with the former.

    Notice Mr Willenberg did not drive an E-Class 200 BlueTec before buying his Model S.
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    techmaven
    ^OTOH no one buys 100k car to save money..

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think Tesla will sell rather well considering, that Tesla has sold well over 100 cars to Finland without local Tesla Store.
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    schonelucht
    Norway now at 776 for March.
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    Krugerrand
    Norway is going to go over 1000 cars this month. There is reason to believe the rest of Europe will follow (another report of 3 P85D delivered today in Belgium f.e.) ending us at 3000+ for the quarter. It's the first step towards a beat for the quarter!
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    Benz
    And yet, Mr. Willenberg, did. Which means there are others. Lots of well-off people buy expensive, quality things AND don't like to be ripped off or have excessive car maintenance costs or, or, or all the other myriad of expenses in life. It makes total sense to buy a 100k Model S over a 100k (fill in ICE of choice) when the former costs far less to fuel and maintain. That's a lot of money saved over the life of the car and is a smart buy - as in if you're going to buy a 100k car, you might as well buy the one that doesn't cost you another 100k to drive (and offers so many superior attributes).
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Indeed

    + 1
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    Johan
    Thanks for the information, that's great news!
    By polling all registrations with their corresponding license plate in the format ELXXXXX, how can you distinguish a registration from an e.g. Nissan Leaf?
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Yes. You poll all 99999 possible EL plates and for each it either returns, among other info, make and model or "non existent license plate".
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Ahh, I see, I have to put the digits right after the prefix "EL" and fill with zeros at the end (tried it the other way round before (leading zeros afterwards digits)).
    Like "EL 11100" is a Renault Kangoo electric from 2003 (link).
    I just wanted to verify if that data source really works;)

    Update:
    The latest registration data I could pull was for this registration code "EL61140", a Vokswagen UP! from 2015.03.11.
    Anybody able to access newer data?
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    The licence plate numbers are not handed out sequantially. Instead, each dealer is assigned a block of numbers, and when they're done with those, they move on to a new block of numbers. Also, as you experienced, the range 00000-09999 is unassigned. (And it will probably never be used.)
    �
  • Mar 26, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    As for more recent data, there's one example here: Kjøretøyopplysninger | Statens vegvesen

    We're now at *at least* 777 Model S registered in March in Norway. ;)
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    RobStark
    PIEUROPEFEB2015% MS'14 PI
    1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1,1843,169181
    2Volkswagen e-Golf9752,053119
    3Nissan LEAF7401,749102
    4Renault Zoe9791,69593
    5Volkswagen Golf GTE5271,560922
    6Tesla Model S5771,13964
    7BMW i36021,11865
    8Volvo V60 Plug-In37785257
    9Audi A3 e-Tron572814519
    10Volkswagen e-Up!23850736
    11Smart Fortwo ED156466310
    12Porsche Cayenne Plug-In156393228
    13Renault Kangoo ZE20033028
    14BMW i8128310215
    15Kia Soul EV78302223
    16Renault Twizy136263111
    17Nissan e-NV200113211112
    18Bollor� Blue Car59179113
    19Peugeot iOn66143121
    20Mitsubishi I-Miev39141117

    		TOTAL8,17617,940

    http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2015/03/europe-february-2015.html#comment-form
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    32no
    Is this as of the end of March 25 or March 24? As of the end of March 23, Norway had 693 cars registered.

    Last year in 2014, this is how it looked (source):

    March 24 (Monday) - 898 cars
    March 25 (Tuesday) - 1075 cars (177 cars since March 24)
    March 26 (Wednesday) - 1248 cars (173 cars since March 25)
    ...
    March 29 (Saturday) - 1468 cars (73.3 car per day average since March 26)
    ...
    March 31 (Monday)- 1493 cars (12.5 cars per day average since March 29)
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  • Mar 26, 2015
    techmaven
    Apparently end of business day on the 25th.

    Sv: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!

    I'm still going by the comment that this week is supposed to have somewhere around 650 to 800 (looking at the earlier posts in that thread).
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The count is now at 920. And still going strong. I think we'll end up in the 1100-1200 area. :)
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Whoa, are those only P85D or did S85D deliveries in Norway start in March?
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Also, one interesting element is that there is a significant number of deliveries scheduled for April/May. As I described here: EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 73

    Assuming the same ratio of people who have reported their scheduled delivery to actual deliveries holds true for April/May, and we have 1200 delivereies in March, the figures for the next couple of months should be:

    April 2015: 628
    May 2015: 485

    That would be an extremely good start for a killer Q2.

    (Now, I haven't checked the delivery thread for changes to the delivery estimates. Some may have been moved up or back. And the ratio of 42/1200 may or may not be completely valid.)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Both P85D and S85D are being delivered.
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    SteveG3
    Starting to feel like they are looking to take out last year's record of 1493. Remember that was a record for deliveries in Notway of any car in a month seemingly as far back as anyone found records. Averaging 115/day these next 5 days would clear last year's number.

    While Tesla generally delivers based on what makes sense re today's logistics such data likely would be more effective than a tweet at exposing the lack of evidence in all the "demand problem" FUD. Elon has said superlatives get the public's attention.

    ...and THANKS! for posting this data!
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    uselesslogin
    Only at this point last year it was already more than 1200. Of course we don't really have visibility into their logistics so it could still happen.
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, but my guess is that the record will remain unbroken. You have to remember that it's a couple of days between when a car is registered and when it is delivered, so a car registered on monday afternoon will be delivered in Q2.

    Of course, Tesla could be happy with a higher inventory on hand if it means breaking the record from last year, but I have my doubts.
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    SteveG3
    I was just looking at 32no's post #923 here. The headline making news last year looks like it was based on registrations. So, if that is the case, an apple's to apple's beat would mean averaging 115/day the next 5 days (granted, there's a Sunday in there but recently they are doing close to 200/day). I'm thinking about the headline in terms of revealing the lack of substance in various FUD articles jumping over month-month delivery in country x,y,z (often just guesses to boot).

    As to helping Tesla with the quarter, indeed, registration is not necessarily delivery. Pretty sure for Tesla delivery equals receipt of payment... do you know if that happens at the time of registration in Norway?
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    pGo
    Is registration possible in weekend?
    If not, was today the last day to count for Q1 or Monday? Thanks!
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Cobos
    I'm pretty sure most car dealership got access directly to our DMV equivalent's database and can register whenever they want to. Tesla Norway also has access. Registration is usually done 1-2 workdays before delivery. But considering the rush they might even register to be able to hand out cars on this Sunday for all I know.

    Cobos
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I believe payment happens around delivery (which is a couple of days after registration), but depends a bit on payment method. From what I can gather you can either have paid the amount due before picking up the car, or you can bring all the relevant paperwork and sort it out there, naturally with some processing time before the money is actually transferred.
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I checked the delivery estimates thread and I have some updated figures. First let me just quote the reported scheduled deliveries from the 5th of March:
    Now, the current reported scheduled deliveries are as follows:

    March: 25 P85D, 22 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 47
    April: 3 P85D, 14 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 17
    May: 23 S85D, 0 P85D/S85/S60 Total: 23
    June: 1 P85D, 5 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 6

    So, it seems that some of the deliveries scheduled for April at the beginning of the month were actually moved to March. But if the ratio of people who have reported their scheduled delivery to actual deliveries holds true for April/May, and we have 1200 deliveries in March, we can at the moment expect delivery figures to develop like this:

    March: 1200
    April: 343
    May: 587
    June: 153 (Any Model S ordered today will be delivered in June, so it stands to reason that this number will increase over the coming weeks.)
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Yggdrasill, thank you for your work, which is very important contribution to this forum!
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  • Mar 27, 2015
    Lessmog
    Seconded!
    However, I have a gnawing thought that quarters sometimes end on weekends, so today might be the last day for registration in Q1. That may explain why only 11 weeks production was counted. On the other hand, Elon's tweet about being cash flow positive Q1-2013 came on April 1, which was ... let's see ... oh, a Monday. So, in conclusion, I'm inconclusive! :rolleyes:

    EDIT: According to FredTMC Tesla uses calendar quarters. Phew! More days for a beat! :smile:
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    Now over 1000 in Norway for March. Supposedly as of friday 27th. Three more days of deliveries :)
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Could someone please post a link to Norwegian Forum where the data is posted?
    Thank you
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Cobos
    You can usually find someone posting about this in the "Bestilling og levering" part of the Tesla section on the Norwegian EV organization forums.

    Cobos
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Yggdrasill
  • Mar 28, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Thank you both

    Any thoughts on EV Incentives being close to 50000? Is there some kind of hard stop in place or will continue after 50000 until changed otherwise?
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Johan
    No hard stop. But >50000 BEVs registered could lead to a reevaluation of the current incentives before 2017, the year they were originally set to be reevaluated. This is of course a political issue and since the incentives came in to play there has been a shift in elected government. Most likely the incentives will be gradually waned (weaned?) off, starting with escalating VAT year by year.
    �
  • Mar 28, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I tried to explain the situation for non-Norwegians a bit earlier in the thread: EU Market Situation and Outlook - Page 75
    �
  • Mar 28, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    No hard stop. Negotiations at being held at the moment. Most probable outcome is still strong/same incentives next couple of years. My guess is we will see sales tax added gradually from 2017 and be 10% by 2020. (Normal rate is 25%)
    �
  • Mar 28, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Thanks for heads up!
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    hobbes
    Was at a P85D test drive event near my hometown of Aachen, Germany today. The cool thing was it was held at the universities�s car test track, so no other traffic, banked curves, and they set up a slalom course with cones. Also talked to a few Model S owners. My take aways:

    - Two of the three people I talked to had gotten their Model S from their companies. One guy said they had gotten 10+ Model Ss at once with probably more to come. So that gives hope for higher sales in Germany if other companies start doing the same.

    - All owners were very happy with their current Teslas, didn�t want to go back to ICEs.

    - People are doing long distance trips (skiing holidays etc.) and happy with the SC network, even if travelling takes a bit more time than with ICEs

    - Destination charging (hotels) hardly exists yet, would help a lot

    - The P85D definitely got much more punch than the P85+ I had test driven before. I didn�t get that rollercoaster-like tingling feeling in your stomach just from accelerating back then.

    - Handled amazingly well in the slalom (though I have nothing to really compare the experience to).

    - Next generation back seats are a huge improvement for me. In all other Model Ss I sat in my head hit the roof, even with the sun roof. Not any more. (I am 6' 1)

    It is good to remind yourself how good the Model S is (as a non owner) in times when being a share holder is a bit depressing! Pictures on the German forum.
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    ScepticMatt
  • Mar 28, 2015
    Matias
    How much is range when you drive 250 km/h?
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    hobbes
    Thanks for posting the link! I looked at it and used google translate on it a bit, maybe you can check on what I think I found out:

    - The thread name "1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars" refers to March 2014 when the thread was started
    - The last score was just above 1000 Model S registrations in Norway for March 2015 Sv: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
    - But: 91 cars were counted double so have to subtract those Sv: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
    - Then in the same post Amoss talks about another source NRK (Norwegian TV) citing 1000 more than his own numbers - do you have a source for that?!!
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    LuckyLuke
    About 160kW to maintain that speed so it'll drain the battery in half an hour, range estimate: 110-130km
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    ScepticMatt
    One of the three German Forum 85D owners got 6.2 installed at a SeC.
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Model 3
    Both of this numbers are for EV's total, not Tesla's and not march and/or 2015. Of this double registered cars there is only 18 Model S.
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Johann Koeber
    I am very happy to hear that Tesla is working on fleet sales in Germany now. They do events at major companies to show them the car and let employees do test drives/rides. If they can convince some of the companies to list Tesla as a company car option, sales in Germany will pick up substantially.

    This article

    Automarkt-Statistiken: Fahrzeugbestand, Neuzulassungen, Anteil Geschäftswagen 2013 | Buzzriders

    states that about 90 % of all BMW 5 Series are company cars.

    This is a huge market Tesla has all but neglected in the past.
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Krugerrand
    Neglected? That's a pretty strong word from someone who isn't privy (unless you are, then please elaborate) to what Tesla is doing behind the scenes. There are sooooooooooo many possibilities, I don't know where to begin, as to why Tesla doesn't have the number of fleet sales you think they should, deliberately neglecting that segment of the market doesn't even hit the top 100 list.
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    RobStark
    The big question is if Tesla is giving discounts to fleets? Because MB,BMW,and Audi do give big discounts.

    You can justify it by saying you can give a discount and maintain margins because you are spending less in logistics and Tesla employee time selling to fleets.

    Remember the UK government considered fleet purchase of Model S but refused on principle when it could not get a discount from retail.
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Johann Koeber
    Sorry if I came across too harsh. English is not my first language.

    I meant to take a positive stance. My observations are:

    - Tesla has two more open positions for regional fleet sales managers, others have been filled
    - I have met people recently who have been invited to such test drives/test rides - they show positive reactions

    Up to a few months from now, no such activities were visible to me. What I meant to express, is that Tesla seems to be doing a lot lately to increase awareness in fleet buyers. I expect that to increase sales in Germany big time.

    Look what I wrote 2013-10-20 Great article from Auto Zeitung in Germany!
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Krugerrand
    Thanks for the clarification.
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    hobbes
    You sure? I am getting confused - are all those numbers Yggdrasil posted total EVs??
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  • Mar 28, 2015
    Model 3
    Yes I'm sure, and no, the number he gave was for Model S in March 2015, but the two numbers I quoted was for total EVs.

    Just to make it clear: (updated numbers)
    March 2015:
    Model S: 1017
    EVs total: 3305

    Total ever:
    Model S: 7460 (this number includes 18 cars with double registrations - or some of the doubles might been Roadsters? Forgot to check that out...)
    EVs total: 48835 (this is the number that was at that time about 1000 cars lower then official stated by NRK, and include 91 cars (of witch 18 is Tesla's) with double registrations and one with triple)
    �
  • Mar 28, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    For clarity's sake, the double registrations are for the most part a result of licence plate thefts. If this happens you are issued with a new licence plate number. Usually a licence plate follows the car until it is scrapped or exported.
    �
  • Mar 28, 2015
    Auzie
    Discounts may be an option in Government fleets, but they are not in Australia for some business fleets.

    There are many different ways these fleets are set up and run. As running the fleets adds cost to business (administration etc), fleet managers can reduce their workload by letting employees-drivers do all the legwork in setting up a lease, within given constraints. Often employees can find their own car for lease and negotiate the price, fleet manager just stamps it. Lease costs are passed to employees so they bear the lease cost and they are the cost sensitive party, employer not so much. There are restrictions on models and costs, to stop people from going wild. The whole scheme is just a tax reduction tool.
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  • Mar 29, 2015
    Benz
    The 10,000th Tesla Model S delivery in Norway will (very likely) be in 2015.
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  • Mar 29, 2015
    hobbes
    Thanks for clarifying. Now it all makes sense.

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  • Mar 29, 2015
    hobbes
    Latest from Amoss at the Norwegian forum: 1056 Model S registered in March in Norway so far as of yesterday (Sat) :) . Someone else posting there says there are more cars waiting in Drammen (but not how many).

    elbilforum.no
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  • Mar 29, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The cars at the service center in Drammen are probably already registered, but being prepped for delivery. Hard to say where exactly we'll end up, but 1100-1200 still seems likely.
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  • Mar 29, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The tax policy spokesperson for the Progress Party has now publicly gone out and said that the VAT exemption will remain in place at least until 2017. So, expect at least two more years of high Tesla sales in Norway. :)
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  • Mar 29, 2015
    maoing
    Good news. Norway market is very important before other EU countries picking up.

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  • Mar 29, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    Actually it says VAT exemption will last through 2017, until 2018. This could mean people can buy their Model 3 without tax :) very good news. Sales of Model 3 will be off the charts if it comes on sale in 2017!?
    �
  • Mar 29, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Right. Important distinction. And yes, we can expect Model 3 sales to be nuts in 2017. The new Nissan Leaf, the Chevy Bolt (if available) and any other 200 mile range competitors will also have insane sales.

    2017: First year in Norway with a greater than 50% market share for EVs?
    �
  • Mar 29, 2015
    maoing
    Btw, is this just announced as a news?

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  • Mar 29, 2015
    Yggdrasill
  • Mar 29, 2015
    mwulff
    To just add my own thoughts to this thread about what is holding Tesla back in Europe (and Denmark specifically).

    This first issue is the sheer size of the Model S. With it's mirrors extended the car stands at 219 cm's in width (86,2"). This is gigantic in Europe and a real problem from time to time. It does not make the car undriveable here but it does complicate matters a lot. In Denmark a BMW 3 series is seen as a very large car and it is like a super-mini compared to the Model S.

    In Denmark a nicely equipped Model S would set you back around $102k, this puts the Model S squarely in the same territory as a new BMW 520D. So the car is already a in niche-market on price alone. Hardly anybody in this country can afford to buy a $102k car with great family cars costing somewhere between $36k (Skoda Octavia) and $61k (Ford Mondeo).

    To further add insult to injury our prices for electricity are way higher than in the US. We pay somewhere around $0.30 pr kWh. This makes the Tesla much more expensive to run. I compared the running costs of Model S to a 320D here in this country and the yearly savings on "fuel" was around $850. So fuel costs really do not factor into the equation when you consider a Model S. This was with 20% of the power coming from the SC's. If all power had to come from the wall then the Tesla would have been more expensive than a 320D.

    And we also have a "range issue". Simply put: We drive a lot faster than in the US and that puts a serious dent in the range. Most of our highway system has a limit of 80 mph with a more realistic cruising speed of around 85. At that speed the Tesla's range will drop rapidly. The thing that really saves the Model S here is that many of our distances are smaller than in the US.

    Another problem is the lack of a trade-in system. Most families are 1 car families here and that means that selling your old car before/after the Model S gets to you is a huge hassle. Traditionally you take your used car to a dealer as a trade-in. If Tesla had a system to do trade-ins it would help a lot.

    The biggest advantage Tesla has in my particular country is one they don't talk about much: The Service centers. Our car-dealers will nickel and dime you on service and repairs. Tesla needs to shout about their "one price - everything included" from the rooftops. This could really sway a lot of buyers much faster than anything else. Especially since we tend to keep our cars a lot longer. 10-15 year old cars is the norm here.

    So to sum up what's limiting adoption in Denmark:

    1. Size - it's way too big for most people. As a friend said (quoting top gear): "It's like a really long walk around it".
    2. Price - Firmly in the luxury market
    3. Cost of electricity.

    But on a positive note: Inevitably when the discussion turns to cars among our circle of friends there is only one car they dream about and that is an electric Tesla. The Model S is seen as a dream car right up there with Aston Martins and Ferraris.

    /Michael

    PS. English is not my native language so please bear with any mistakes on my part.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    Not unlikely. But Model 3 needs to come online 2017, if not huge setback if VAT added in 2018.

    I think loads of people will want to buy a Model 3. Model S already rated the "future" and "awesome" car.

    Most people I talk to want one. And already two Model S owners in my extended family. Huge hype and a talking point in every family get together.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2015
    RobStark
    Given Model 3 debut in USA during 2nd half of 2017 won't reach Norway til Q1 2018. Even if VAT added it will likely be 10% in 2018 correct?

    The full 25% VAT will not come til later.

    And comparable ICEv will still have punitive taxes. By which I mean compacts with ~220 hp not subcompacts with less than 150 hp.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    Yeah. Probably right assumption. Given 2018 is first year of VAT, it will not reach 25% until a few years later. Model 3 obviously will be success anyhow. Just the scale of it that might vary.
    �
  • Mar 29, 2015
    RobStark
    Model S is not comparable to a 320D much less a Mondeo or Octavia. More money but more car.

    Petrol in Los Angeles is 0.73 euro/liter. My base electricity rate is $.13 per kWh. More expensive electricity in Europe but also more expensive petrol.

    Flow of traffic in California outside of rush hour is 75 MPH even though speed limit is 65.

    The average age of the US auto fleet is 12 years old.

    Way too big? Model 3 is coming. So it will only be somewhat big.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    virtuesoft
    I don't think that the size of the Model S is a problem for the UK. Range Rovers, BMW X5, Audi Q7, Porsche Cayenne, and other 4x4's are a common sight here. I would estimate that 20% of the cars on the road are either around the same size as a Model S, or bigger. It really doesn't seem that big to me, or to the rest of the UK public I imagine.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Matias
    It won't. It is 2015 and they haven't even revealed the concept.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    mwulff

    While you are correct that a Model S is not comparable directly to a 3 series or a Mondeo. Nevertheless the market that Tesla finds themselves in are dominated by cars that are more affordable by a wide margin. Even if the comparison is not really fair, but it is the only Tesla available right now. So Tesla is loosing out on 90% of the market right now, this will hopefully change in 2017-2020 when the Model 3 comes out.

    At the moment diesel prices have dropped to about $1.28 pr liter. This really hurts the cost-saving aspect of the Model S when compared to most family cars here.

    Another fact I forgot to mention is that the strong $ vs the euro makes the car way more expensive over here.

    Specifically for Denmark the Model S is tax-exempt until 31.12.2015 after that a base S85 will cost somewhere around $215.000 at which point all sales will stop forever.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    smac
    That is interesting. In the UK you would really have to go crazy on the option list to get a 520D near to a base S60, and that's comparing list prices. You can get a discount on the BMW by shopping around. Once you get into how much a month using BMW finance, a 520d here would cost <�350 an S60>�700.

    Driven sensibly a 520D will cost <�48 to do 400 miles (from my own real world experience). Broad brush with a majority of charging coming from your home supply a Model S maybe �8 for the same distance. You'd have to be doing nearly 3.5k miles per month for them to be financially comparable as a straight personal purchase. (On business taxation rules there are some additional perks, especially if you own your own business, but again it's still not clear cut)

    A Model S is a much better a car than a 520d in so many ways. In the UK however overall running cost isn't one of them.

    I'd always put the S into the next size up. i.e 7 series, A8, S Class. Personally I feel this is where the UK prices are more in parity.

    The one thing that will be interesting, is that anecdotally (where I like outside London) Range Rovers / Q7 / Cayennes etc. seem to far outnumber the top end big saloons. So I think the UK's adoption of the X will be the thing to watch.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    mwulff
    @smac: That's because you don't have our crazy 180% registration tax on cars. So if you had $102k in your pocket you could choose between a Tesla Model S or a 520d new.

    So the Tesla actually has a huge advantage on price but the car is so expensive that it is still outside the price range of all but the wealthiest of us.

    The middle-class here normally buys cars in the $36-$60k price range and Tesla has nothing in that price range so this naturally limits adoption in our market. Even at these prices the middle class is struggling to pay for the cars.

    I was trying to point out why Tesla sells so few cars here in Denmark :)
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Auzie
    Very interesting details about Denmark market, thanks for contributing and please keep them coming:smile:
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Model 3
    Someone has to whisper in Elons ears that they need to start producing and selling Model 3 early in 2017 in Norway ;)

    - - - Updated - - -

    What will happen in 2018, nobody knows. But it has been rumored that they have plans to start at 8% VAT, and increase it by an additional 4% a year until it reaches full rate of 25%.

    But 2017 is an election year, so the final budget for 2018 must be approved by a possible new government and a new parliament. So what a government and/or parliament will adopt in autumn 2017 will probably no-one know until November 2017.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Benz
    How about sending him a tweet?

    By the way, what is the current count on Tesla Model S delivery numbers in Norway in March 2015?
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Model 3
    That's a way to whisper in his ears ;)


    1056 cars registered after Saturday. No new registered yesterday (Sunday).
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    matbl
    Compacts with ~220hp are mostly performance versions over here. Large family cars like a Volvo V70 usually have 130-170 hp in the most sold versions. Compacts, typically less...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Same thing in Sweden as in the UK for BMW vs Tesla prices. I know Denmark and Norway have punitive taces on cars, but what about other european countries? Any at all?

    We've been discussing parity cars at length so I will not restart that discussion... ;)
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Just a Reader
    This will certainly give Tesla a boost but there are still a couple of issues that will impact sales:

    - even with a rebate it will still be a very expensive car. Most company cars are Passats, Mercedes C-Class, BMW 520d and comparable cars, not S-Classes.
    - it's conspicuous, conspicuously expensive. That's often frowned upon as it doesn't give a good impression to the rest of staff and customers. My employer restricts S-Class type vehicles to board level staff. As a result we are talking about a dozen of these cars in a fleet of thousands.
    - it's foreign. Depending on your customers you don't want to show up with a foreign car ("you don't buy our products, then we aren't going to buy yours")

    Not much Tesla can do about these issues.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    Remember that the Model S isn't intended as a mass-market car, in Denmark or anywhere else. If someone is cross-shopping it with the Mondeo, there is no way the financial equation balances. Someone buys the Model S because of a combination of performance, environmental stewardship, styling, capacity, and other reasons. Money really isn't on the list unless you're cross-shopping a P85D against equally quick cars.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    schonelucht
    That's not good. Is it possible the tax exemption will be extended like in Norway?
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    matbl
    ?
    I cross shopped it against the BMW 520d I owned then, a new Volvo V70, a new Audi A6 and a used Volvo V70. The S85 still came out at least as cheap as any of the other ones when all costs were considered. Why? Company car tax rules. And I pay the full lease cost by gross salary deduction, so no hiding of cost by letting the company take the cost.
    You don't have to chose a fully loaded P85D, a S85 is still better than an ICE car.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    mwulff
    At this point we don't know really. There has been talk of an extension but this year is an election year and I fear that ev-tax exemption will be lost in the silly and pointless discussions that plague politics.

    The best outcome would be an extension of the tax-exemption, possible for 25 years or more.

    The most likely outcome would be that ev's with a price tag above a certain limit will be taxed, so the Leaf goes free and the Model S takes a beating. Danish politicians hate untaxed luxury with a passion that makes the US political system seem "sane" ;).
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Benz
    Which EV model was the most popular in Denmark in 2014, and how many were sold in Denmark in 2014?
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    PV4EV

    Your English is better than my Danish, so I'll reply in English ..


    Your comments paint a gloomy picture of Denmark for anyone who likes cars, but I still think a MS is very viable for long term use in Denmark.

    I used to employ a senior member of staff who was Danish and his number one reason for escaping Denmark to work in the UK was car pricing and the political climate ...! He was a car fanatic. The first thing he did was buy his dream car even before he had sorted out his accommodation.

    Denmark's laws add a whopping 180% to a cars value in order to be able to register it there. That is not a spelling mistake. 180%.

    Given how 'green' the govt is with regards to energy policy, you'd think they'd see the sense in reducing taxation for EVs. Perhaps they are not as green as they pretend ..

    Also, bear in mind Denmark is only 100 miles wide max, and 200 top to bottom. You could quarter it in a day in a Model S using nothing more than 2 stops at the existing supercharger network, which is free to use for the life of the car, which could be 300,000-400,000 miles. During which time the car will pay for itself 3 times over in just SAVINGS from not having to buy excessively priced petrol/Diesel, so I'd totally recommend a Model S over a base spec BMW 520D.

    Even if you charge at home, the running costs will be significantly cheaper than the nastiest diesel you can buy.

    Although I guess if all you want to do is save money motoring, then don�t buy a MS and consider an older used car instead etc !!


    As for size, I too was worried about this. But having frequently driven an MS right through the motoring nightmare that is central London on numerous occasions without a scratch .. I am less bothered about it. It is big buy as pointed out earlier there are many big cars and SUVs / 4WDs that are at least as wide.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    mwulff
    As far as I know 190 leafs and 126 MS.

    - - - Updated - - -

    It's not that people expect to save money on a MS here. The niche of people who can realistically afford it is simply microscopic. The average Danish family with children have about $47.000 after taxes each year, now together with one of the highest cost of living in the world this leaves little money to buy a car. A fully taxed MS would be limited to the very richest of Danes.

    I agree wrt the long term savings potential of an electric car. But seeing as how a car is the second largest purchase people ever make here (house being no 1), they tend to go with what they know.

    And yes if you love cars Denmark is a gloomy place indeed.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    virtuesoft
    I was inspired by the Norwegian guy that wrote the script to query Norwegian Tesla registrations. I've decided to do the same on other websites. I'm currently working on the UK one. Does anyone know if any other countries have websites where registration numbers can be queried?

    Here is the UK one...

    https://www.vehicleenquiry.service.gov.uk/
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    Lessmog
    Now, if Tesla starts delivering electric bicycles - WATCH OUT!
    Copenhagen's bike lanes look like a deadly menace to pedestrians in the morning rush hour.
    200 different, (some very different) models swoosh by in a tight swarm.

    May be some serious market opportunity there.
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    smac
    I crossed shopped against a Lotus Exige V6 :D To have got the Lotus I'd would have needed to "opt out" of the company car, and bought one personally. Like you say the gross salary reduction is VERY appealing ;)
    �
  • Mar 30, 2015
    SteveG3
    Thanks for the update YGGdrasill!

    As it happens Paulos Santos choose today to try to spin FUD about Norway VAT exemption ending this year.

    Tesla Is Having A Bumper March In Norway But That Just Brings The Ugliness Closer - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
  • Mar 31, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I don't think the article is that bad. It considers more the effect of people *thinking* the incentives will end more than the incentives actually ending.

    But it exaggerates the degree to which damand is pulled forward, because the incentives aren't just about VAT. The uncertainty that the review of the incentives has generated has more than one effect. Exemption from road tolls and ferry tolls, significantly lower annual registration fee, access to bus lanes, free charging, free parking, etc - all these are benefits that you receive *after* buying an EV, slowly over time. Prospective buyers who until recently have been cautious in assessing the value of these incentives, seeing that they might possibly all be gone 1. January 2016, will now be reassured that the incentives will last at least until 1. January 2018. This definitely matters to the prospective buyer. Two years of these incentives will for some people amount to more than 10k USD. (For most people it will amount to a few thousand USD.)

    So, while some of the demand has probably been pulled forward due to the uncertainty surrounding exemption from VAT, this is more than offset by the continuation of the other incentives. Tesla should be fine, demand-wise. (And the cheaper EVs should do even better, as the incentives matter a lot more in the lower priced segments.)

    Edit: Also, it's true we're probably seeing an initial burst of S85D and P85D, and then the sustained demand/deliveries will settle at a lower level. But by the end of the year, Model X deliveries will start, which will again increase demand. 2016 will in all probability be Tesla's best year yet in Norway.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    Johan
    It's actually one of Santos' less appalling articles, even if it's bearishly skewed.

    The incentives going away eventually does matter for demand, and will put a damper on demand. But this negative effect will be dwarfed by one or several orders of magnitude by the positive effect of a rapidly growing potential customer base. What I mean by this is that the total number of Norwegians even considering buying a BEV is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY higher in say 2016 than in 2014, or fir that matter 2018 compared to 2016. This is because awareness of EV technology is growing rapidly, infrastructure is being built out. Don't underestimate the effect of "my neighbor has one and he loves it". Only a smaller proportion of the population are early adopters. Next come the masses, the people who want to wait a bit to feel safe that the new technology is dependable, works for regular people with regular lives etc. in Norway I'd say that in 2015/2016 we're moving past the early adopter stage. More than 10% of new cars registered so far in 2015 are BEVs.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    Gerardf

    Well, everything is relative. I find it hard to believe SA accepts these very biased anti-TSLA articles from Mr. Santos.

    Seems to me Mr. Santos has a very clear agenda, and my impression was he wanted to make an effort in proactively spreading FUD in order to counteract good news from strong delivery figures in Norway. Actually two significant parts of his 'analysis' were proven wrong within hours of him publishing it on S.A. ("China where things look ugly" and his references to the Norwegian incentives . )

    However, I have not seen any corrections or even amendments to his 'article'.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    SA accepts almost anything that generates lots of site traffic. It has no ?editorial integrity; I don't think even they pretend to. Santos generates clicks, so Santos is welcome on SA.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    hobbes
    1111 Model Ss registered in Norway in March as of this (Tue) morning: elbilforum.no
    The post also mentions that Model S is only 12 cars behind Volkswagen eGolf+eUp, we might catch up today!

    THX to Amoss and his script :).
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    SteveG3
    I can understand what you guys are saying about Santos' SA "article." Honestly, I'd only skimmed it, as I saw it in the context of what I believe to be a connection to FUD from the week before (not to mention the context of Santos' multi-year FUD habit).

    On March 20th, Anton Wahlman, (he and Santos being among the 3 or 4 most prolific individuals at pushing rubbish on Seeking Alpha) came out with an "article" saying that Tesla had only about 300 deliveries in Norway to date in March, and then tried to portray March 2015 deliveries vs. last year's as some widely agreed upon critical litmus test of demand that Tesla was looking destined to woefully fail and thus miss Q1 and likely Q2 guidance. Now, that Tesla has more than tripled the March total in about a week, I read Santos "article" as an attempt to do "damage control" to Wahlman's misguided failed attempt at FUD, and create a new FUD talking point.

    fwiw, nearly all of Wahlman's stuff is now on Seeking Alpha, but the piece I mentioned had been on the Street.com, which has just about completely cut off putting out anything from Wahlman.

    Sorry, the page you requested could not be found - TheStreet

    Update: I believe link works despite what it reads. Title of Wahlman piece was "These Numbers Could Mean Another Quarterly Guide Down for Tesla"
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    dalalsid
    Does a site exist that shows you financial news and you can blacklist authors? I'd like to remove Anton W., Paulo S., Ben Levishon (or however you spell the guys name), Shuli Ren and some others who constantly pump out random garbage or write one line articles taking things out of context or highlighting random flaws.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Can one of you smart people make a table with the totals for Europe Q1 like we used to do for previous quarters? Seems to me Europe looks pretty strong this quarter, but the info is here and there over the thread. If the China estimate of 1400-1500 over the other thread holds true, that 9500 target seems all but a sure bet as the floor.
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    hobbes
    Q1 2015 Sales: Wiki Table

    I�ll do anything if you call me smart ;).

    My first try at a wiki post - added data from mostapasta�s table as of Feb and current Norway numbers.
    As new March numbers come in in the next days you can put them in the table:
    Europe Q1 2015 Model S sales

    Is there a way to automatically compute sums in a wiki table?
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Yesss! He took the bait! :tongue: Seriously though, thank you, hobbes!

    So looking at the data, Norway was responsible for 40% of the sales in January & February, with the rest of Europe doing 60%. Now I don't expect that to hold in March as that would be unrealistic, but even if the other counties only "pulled a January", we could add 400 to the total and that's probably lowballing it, given that the last month of the quarter is historically the strongest. So 2500 for Q1 Europe looks like the bare minimum we'll have, 2700 may be a reasonable bet.

    If you add to that the roughly 1300 the China thread estimates, you are at 4000. Completely out of the blue, say 500 for the rest fo the globe outside the US (Canada, Hong Kong -unless already part of the China guesstimate, etc) and we are at 4500. I am pretty sure the US can pull off 5000, especialy if you consider the 1400 P85Ds that slipped to Q1 - assuming that was all US deliveries as no others were officially scheduled for Q4.

    There is no way Q1 is not a beat! Tell me I'm crazy!
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    FredTMC
    Sorry. You're NOT crazy. :)
    �
  • Mar 31, 2015
    hobbes
    Sure. However, the main work on this table is still coming up as new numbers come in, so everyone: Help putting the puzzle together! The credits for all the data in the table now go to mostapasta (copied numbers from his table) and our Norwegian friends.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    matbl
    March number for sweden as reported by bil sweden: 98. But their number usually lacks the last couple of days of registrations. So probably a few more...
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    Newb
    Thx matbl! I've updated the wiki with an estimate of 100 for Sweden. [which is a huge number for a single month in Sweden btw! best ever probably?]
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    RobStark
    In March 2014 Tesla sold 26 Model S in Sweden.

    So if your estimate is accurate that is an increase of almost 300%!


    In Germany, last March was 143. I am hoping Tesla at least triples that number.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    Newb
    Based on well-founded estimates for Germany and Sweden, we've already crossed the line of 2500 for Q1 Europe, with numbers for at least 10 European countries outstanding...

    P.S.: By the way, BIG thank you to hobbes for the wiki and mostapasta for the ground work.
    P.S.S.: I've edited February numbers for France and Switzerland, too.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Austria numbers just in!!! 63 in March 2015!! [compared to just 25 in March 2014 (+150%)]
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    hobbes
    Wow, that�s fun seeing those numbers come in. If you take the March data for Norway, Sweden and Germany and divide by their total for Jan and Feb, you get a factor of 2.9. Total for all of Europe for Jan+Feb was above 1000... Just saying - don�t really dare to draw the conclusion from that extrapolation just yet...
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    matbl
    For sweden, comparing with March 2014 isn't really relevant. At that time, the few deliveries taking place was for orders made at or soon after the first test drive events and before there were any store or service center.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Where is the Germany number coming from? And any final number for norway yet?
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    Final march number for Norway reported to be 1140 Model S. This makes the Model S number one sold EV in March. For Q1 as well I think.

    "Normal" Dual engine only started delivering 13th of March, so expect good numbers in Q2.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    hobbes
    Updated the wiki table with today�s Norway number:

    Europe Q1 2015 Model S sales

    If you get new numbers, you can also put them in yourself!


    Updated:
    O.k., EVEnthusiast was quicker :)
    �
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