Thứ Bảy, 5 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 4

  • Jul 3, 2014
    krla
  • Jul 4, 2014
    Newb
  • Jul 4, 2014
    Pate
    Finland:
    June registrations: 5
    Total Q2: 33
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  • Jul 4, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Estonia added 4 cars officially, but three more on 2nd of July which count in Q2 so total for June: 7 cars.
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  • Jul 4, 2014
    blakegallagher
    at this rate Estonia will have enough cars to justify a supercharger and service center in short order ! Keep up the good work there :) I want to see a line of Superchargers heading to Finland.
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  • Jul 4, 2014
    republic
    Through Russia?

    That begs the question: when will Tesla start selling in Russia?
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Actually have to amend that, heard that my friends car that was picked up yesterday was the very last car sold in Q2 as the money was wired over late on June 30th and it counted in Q2. So 8 cars, not 7 for Estonia ;) But it'll make accounting harder as the registrations will be in July for four of them :)
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    matbl
    I think most other european countries actually uses registration date for official statistics. Maybe estonia as well? If so, I guess it would make sense to use those numbers.
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Estonia is not core market so for Tesla the car is sold when it is paid for when the car is in Tilburg. How the owner gets the car from Tilburg to Tallinn is his responsibility and that introduces usually about 1 week delay. So if we are accounting for Q2 sales etc, then we'd need to take the weeks delay into account. If we just want monthly registration numbers, then sure, we can take the official dates in which case it's 4 in June and 4 already in July
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    blakegallagher
    I guess I assumed there was a ferry of some sort from Estonia. While it may not be reasonable I do not want Tesla to start selling in Russia with their current dictator in place. This may not be fair to the people of Russia but I am biased that way.
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    Yes, there is excellent ferry service between Tallinn and Helsinki, 12 sailings daily. No rational driver would go via Russia.
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    jhm
    Raises an interesting question: Could Supercharger stations be installed on ferries? It would be quite convenient from the driver's viewpoint.
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    Auzie
    That would be inefficient energy conversion. Water craft is powered by gas turbines or diesel engines.
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    jhm
    Who says you have to get the power from on-board generators? Use battery packs both to charge cars and to provide electricity to the rest of the vessel. This way the ferry operator can save money on fuel while providing an additional service.

    We're used to thinking about the Gigafactory addressing both the EV market and the stationary energy storage market, but there are additional markets in maritime and aviation applications. Wherever you see electricity being generated from transportation fuels you've got an opportunity for a Tesla battery pack.
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  • Jul 5, 2014
    Auzie
    It may be more efficient to carry load of diesel or gas than battery packs.
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  • Jul 6, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    A lot of ships are converting to using LNG instead of bunker fuel. Cheaper in many markets, and certainly cleaner.
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  • Jul 6, 2014
    CalDreamin
    Yeah, among fossil fuels, they're at opposite ends of the "clean" spectrum. Burning bunker fuel is filthy, like burning asphalt.
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  • Jul 10, 2014
    Right_Said_Fred
  • Jul 11, 2014
    kyne
  • Jul 11, 2014
    Gerardf
    I have been searching to find data on June registrations for the UK.

    A table can be downloaded via this page : New car market up 10% in first half of 2014 | SMMT

    Link to table : http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-new-car-registrations-June-2014.zip


    It does however not show a number specifically for Tesla. There is a number for "Other imports" being 273. (2013-June was 98 for that category).
    That seems to imply that the upper limit for June deliveries for Tesla in UK is 273.


    Another page shows 661 pure electrics registered in June-2014 (191 in June 2013).

    Link : June 2014 – EV registrations | SMMT
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  • Jul 13, 2014
    Right_Said_Fred
  • Jul 21, 2014
    32no
    I was compiling data for European deliveries and expansion/investment in terms of stores, service centers, and superchargers when I came across something interesting. Here's the data:

    Tesla europe.png

    It seems that some countries are getting disproportionately large investments when compared to the deliveries that those countries receive. Let's put it in graph form:

    Tesla Europe 1.png

    It seems that Germany and France (and even Austria) are getting much more investment in Europe than they have deliveries. Perhaps Tesla thinks these markets will contribute greatly to European demand in the future, meaning that these markets will be rapidly expanding for Tesla. Another thing to take into account is population size and country size, which could partially explain this disproportionate investment, but I think the theory that these markets will be expanding rapidly in the future still stands.
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  • Jul 21, 2014
    Cobos
    You might also keep in mind that Germany to some degree is a vacation target, but mostly is a very central location that "everyone" has to drive through to get to their target, like France, Italy or Spain. Hence also the reason while France got the big investment is that France is big and has several important vacation targets for Europeans. Not to mention it's on the way to Spain, which also is a vacation target.
    Having said that, I guess when germanies SC is built out and some more hightech accessories (active security, active lighting etc. ) there is a big room for growth in Germany.

    Cobos
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  • Jul 22, 2014
    RobStark
    Not only is Germany centrally located but with Autobahn speeds SC locations need to be spaced closer together.

    On the one hand you can't claim to be comparable to big Mercs and Beemers then on the other hand ask Model S owners to limit their speed to 80 kmh in order to jump from one SC location to the next.

    Germany having the biggest population and biggest economy in Europe with the most solar energy production Elon has not lost hope that it will be the third largest market outside of USA and China.

    When Elon visited Germany he said he hoped for 300 sales per month in Germany. Tesla is only averaging a quarter of that this year but Tesla is plowing ahead anyway.

    And France is between Germany, England(hopefully second biggest European market) and Spain( Europe's number one tourist destination despite France being the worlds number one tourist destination).
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  • Jul 22, 2014
    LuckyLuke
    My personal experience, and I like to drive fast, is that the spacing in Germany is not an issue. On my recent holiday from The Netherlands to Austria I stopped at 3 SC's in Germany, each time recharging a bit more then needed so I could drive "unlimited" speeds.
    The reality of the Autobahn is that you can indeed drive some stretches at good speed, but the majority of stretches the traffic is either too busy, roadworks are being done, speed limits around cities etc etc.
    It is perfectly possible to drive from SC to SC at a normal speed, without having to resort to hypermiling techniques.
    I'm sure that if Tesla can maintain a steady flow of orders from Germany the momentum will pick up some day and we will see a healthy grow in sales there.
    There certainly is a lot of interest there for the car, if you like attention just drive through Germany, they will stare at your car like no other ;) (in NL or NO this is far less the case)
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  • Jul 22, 2014
    Johann Koeber
    My take on the German situation is this:

    SC need to be spaced at max 250 km (better 200 km) to allow driving at 'normal' autobahn speeds. I was once able to go really fast from Dresden to SC M�nchberg (197 km, relatively little traffic). I rolled to the SC with a single digit range. So just flooring it will give you less that 200 km range, or less than an hour of driving if you put it that way. Then charge for 45-60 minutes. SO it rally makes sense to limit your speed to about 160 km/h (100 mph) for extendedd range and less charging time at the SC.

    Sales are increasing from quarter to quarter.

    Adaptive Cruise Control and other goodies do not appear to me to be dealbreakers. The car as such is so advanced. But sure, they would be nice to have.

    Deals have to be struck for corporate fleets. Very few people (like myself) buy their cars themselves. Many cars in this price range are bought by companies for their employees. Get someone to sell Teslas to the DAX30 companies and sales will really pick up. I do not know if this is neccessary as long as Tesla is production restricted. But if you want to sell more, this is a way to grasp it.
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  • Jul 22, 2014
    RobStark
    Tesla just started doing this in Switzerland with Sixt Leasing and not that long ago started business leases in the USA through Tesla Financing.

    I am sure this is right around the corner once the new production lines are at full capacity in Fremont and the German leasing company can delivery cars in a timely manner. I am sure DAX30 executives are not ok with waiting 3-5 months for their cars.
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  • Jul 22, 2014
    schonelucht
    It's a little bit strange leasing is available in some countries but not in others. For example, in the Netherlands leasing a Tesla was possible from day 1.
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  • Jul 24, 2014
    Fast Laner
    Exhibition on e - mobility in 63763 Aschaffenburg the upcoming saturday, Jul 26th

    Main-Echo - ABS - 24.07.2014 klick left side page 13 Sport and then once again down right

    This is another chance missed by Tesla Motors Germany to exhibit for small money in one of the wealthiest cities surrounding Frankfurt.

    Tesla even had a spare car down in munich, but Tesla wanted to be paid the expenses from the public office in charge for the exhibition to get the car back and forth.

    This is not an commercial event like IAA.

    Private - owned Model S on exhibition at the Karlsplatz.
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  • Aug 4, 2014
    RobStark
    Norway July 2014 Sales

    Nissan Leaf 313
    BMW i3 124
    Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 106
    Tesla Model S 114
    Renault Zoe 41
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  • Aug 5, 2014
    schonelucht
    Tesla sales in the Netherlands for July 2014 : 31 (compares with 49 in April '14 and 32 in Oct '13; Jan '14 is not comparable due to legislation changes), 598 cumulative for 2014

    Other EV sales for reference (numbers in parentheses are cumulative 2014 sales) :
    Nissan Leaf : 43 (275)
    BMW i3 : 35 (365)
    Renault Zoe : 14 (99)
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  • Aug 6, 2014
    Newb
  • Aug 6, 2014
    hobbes
    Hm, that's disappointing. But I guess it also has to do with the new markets (Hong Kong, GB..., China) that want some of the produced Model Ss, too... and the factory shutdown for installation of the new production line.

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  • Aug 6, 2014
    dirkhh
    The factory shutdown could be used as excuse for low numbers in September or October in Germany.
    I continue to think that people vastly over-estimate the demand for the Model S in Germany. Just how much of a home brand market this is becomes clear when you compare i8 and Model S. 2:1 ratio. S-Class : Model S? 35:1
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  • Aug 6, 2014
    Cobos
    I think you are right that the home brand effect is big in Germany, but I'm guessing Model S usually not being available as company car, charging network not really covering the north of Germany and the car being "feature light" does affect sales as well. Within a year most of those should be dealt with and I'm hoping it will outsell the i8 if not the S-class in Germany. The other way around it does outsell the S-class in California :)

    Cobos
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  • Aug 6, 2014
    Newb
    +1

    The biggest problem is that most German companies (in any sector), and of course all public administration entities / politicians / ministries, etc. , tend to have either formal or informal long-term contracts (or at least implicit commitments) with/to German auto manufacturers (and/or auto manufacturers producing cars in Germany, such as Ford), in many instances for huge fleets. It would require a lot of lobbying and marketing efforts from Tesla to get into these spheres.
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  • Aug 7, 2014
    schonelucht
    What's really interesting is that Tesla produces 1000-1500 more vehicles every quarter than they deliver. Tesla claims those vehicles go toward 'filling the pipeline' but doesn't give any specifics beyond that. I am really starting to wonder where that pipeline exactly is. It sure as hell isn't piping stuff towards Europe where we have this consistent fall in deliveries the month after quarter ending 3-4 times in a row now. If it isn't Europe, and it isn't America (where delivery transport takes 2 weeks max), that just leaves China. But I find it hard to believe that there are 5000 cars in transit towards China. Especially because production of the RHD hasn't been going on all that long and neither has Tesla import in China been going on that long while the overproduction is going on right from the very first quarter the factory was open (minus 1 or 2 exceptions). Finally, Tesla also needs surplus cars for marketing and service : about 125 stores and 100 service centers are open worldwide. At 3 cars/shop and 5 cars/service center that gives us 1000 cars max. Possible answers and more questions

    • cars that are produced but fail quality control are counted towards 'production' twice (once when they fail QA and the second time when they are salvaged for parts, reassembled and subsequently delivered)?
    • loaners sold after a 3/6 month rotation at a shop/service center aren't counted towards 'deliveries'?
    • service centers/shops need much more cars on standby than 5?
    • there are really 5000 cars on a boat towards China
    Is there any other explanation that I am missing?

    Q3 is probably going to be a very weak quarter for European deliveries, possibly weaker still than last quarter.
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  • Aug 7, 2014
    matbl
    Sweden July '14 registrations: 17 (one of them is mine)

    More complete EV (incl Plug-in hybrids) list:
    MITSUBISHI OUTLANDER PHEV 199
    NISSAN LEAF 62
    VW E-UP! 35
    VOLVO V60 PHEV 27
    RENAULT ZOE 25
    TESLA MODEL S 17
    BMW I3 (REX) 10
    BMW I3 (BEV) 8
    TOYOTA PRIUS PLUG-IN 8
    SAAB 9-3 (EV) NEVS 4
    Models not included have zero registrations.
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  • Aug 7, 2014
    widodh
    Interesting. So a MITSUBISHI sells better in Sweden then a Volvo?
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  • Aug 7, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    The Outlander is quite attractively priced, so it's also selling quite well here. The Outlander costs 440,800k NOK vs 606,800 NOK for the Volvo. At 606,800 NOK, it should also be mentioned that a well specced 85 kWh Model S is cheaper, because the incentives apply to electric cars and not hybrids. I believe that isn't the case in Sweden, so the Volvo shouldn't be completely sidelined by the Model S there.

    July, Norway
    Mitsubishi Outlander: 106
    Volvo V60 PHEV: 5
    Toyota Prius Plug-in: 2

    And yes, some people have loyalty to brand and nationality. But most people just buy whatever they think is the best car for their use.
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  • Aug 7, 2014
    SebastianR
    I think part of these cars will be used to keep delivering while there was no production due to factory retooling and part of it is indeed oversea's shipping. As long as the increase in "produced but not delivered" cars is proportionally not higher than the overall increase in production I think shipping is a very valid explanation.
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  • Aug 7, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Well the incentives program in Estonia ended today. The last few days saw hundreds of applications that went well over the remaining funds for cars. Last Friday the approved total number of applications for Model S in Estonia was 26. I know at least 4-7 people got applications in before deadlines, but I wouldn't expect many more than 33 cars by end of year (currently at ca half that). Will see how the orders go from now (doubt anyone will buy other EV-s besides Tesla as the incentive was 50% of the other cars costs).
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  • Aug 7, 2014
    tentonine
    I think the interesting number is the new difference, not the sum of past differences - e.g. even though European delivery numbers may be dropping a bit, there are still a lot of cars on boats at the end of the quarter even just to sustain an approximate steady state. So 5000 cars on boats is to everywhere outside North America, not just China.

    The new difference to this month is however probably just for China and RHD. Also, Elon mentioned the imminent launch of new RHD markets, like Australia. I can't remember how soon that will be though. Are there any imminent new LHD markets? I don't remember exactly what was said in the conference call.
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  • Aug 11, 2014
    schonelucht
  • Aug 11, 2014
    mostapasta
    Here's what I have so far for July:
    Europe.png

    Am I missing any countries? Does anyone have sources for the few I'm missing?
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  • Aug 11, 2014
    twan
  • Aug 12, 2014
    mostapasta
  • Aug 13, 2014
    kyne
  • Aug 20, 2014
    32no
    So far, there have been 676 Model S delivered in Germany. At $2000 per car for the supercharging option, Tesla has received $1,352,000 for use to build out superchargers. Assuming the average Supercharger costs $150,000 (the range is $100k-$175k), then Tesla has invested $2,250,000 into the 15 superchargers in Germany at the moment, almost double what Tesla has collected from the Supercharger option.
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  • Aug 20, 2014
    DaveT
    Just wanted to add superchargers in Germany are used by travelers from surrounding countries as well on their way to various European destinations, so you're calculations really ought to include customers from surrounding countries as well (although that would be difficult to know exactly how many to include. You could probably take the total # supercharging fee charged in Europe and divide by total number of European superchargers to get a more accurate estimate).
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  • Aug 20, 2014
    Norse
    You are right about that. The Tesla Forum(s) in Norway are flooded with people talking about their best holiday ever. Driving thru Europe for free!
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    RobStark
    Our Norwegian friend Bjorn had to suffer some pretty awful German public charging infrastructure on his vacation to Switzerland because the supercharging network had not been fully built out yet.

    Norway has ~5300 Model S and 11 Supercharger locations.

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  • Aug 21, 2014
    Maddin0r
    Audi Tesla Welcome.JPG

    Audi in Hamburg welcomes Tesla at the Jungfernstieg - famous shopping street - in Hamburg.
    The sign means "It's fine, when neighbours have the same interests." ... both are located in the same building.
    In my eyes a bit cynical :biggrin:

    Tesla Motors answered on Facebook "Thanks Audi for the warm welcome."
    Tesla Thanks.JPG
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    schonelucht
    56 European supercharges * $150k = $8.4M, about 10k cars delivered in Europe * $2000 = $20M revenue. Tesla is well in the black here, but there are ongoing costs too. At 10 visits/day per supercharger site, average charge 40kWh that's 672 MWh per month. Industry electricity prices are around 90 EUR/MWh (source : http://isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-wAssets/docs/x/de/projekte/Comparison_industrial_electricity_prices_final.pdf). Let's call it $130/MWh or a total of slightly less than $1M per year. Finally maintenance costs of infrastructure at 5% of original price per year or $420k. Total annual lay out then becomes $1.4M, meaning current supercharger grid is paid for the next 8 years with current revenue. Is Tesla reporting a reserve for ongoing future supercharger costs since this is a promise to their customers where they have accepted money but not yet delivered the product?

    Known unkowns
    • Leasing cost of parking space (negative impact)
    • Actual use instead of estimates use (negative/positive impact)
    • Actual maintenance cost (negative/positive impact)
    Note : future sales will bring in more revenue but then again will generate a commensurate cost in adding newer stalls, added electricity costs and maintenance. Unless Tesla is frontloading supercharger deployment and is not planning to grow the network in lockstep with the number of cars on the road.
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    Norse
    Tesla should buy their own spaces and lease some of it to restaurants.
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    Mookuh
    Did you possibly forget a 0 here in the revenue figure? I was under the impression Tesla would make around 20,000$ revenue per car sold. 2k seems very low. That and I'm gonna vneture a guess that on the pre-purchased maintenance plans, there is some money to be gained for them aswell.
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    The rent for supercharger spots on public land here in Norway is at least nil. The contracts are in the public domain.
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    Rebel44
    2K is what Tesla charge customers for access to superchargers.
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    Chickenlittle
    Equipment and access
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  • Aug 21, 2014
    dalalsid
    Just access, the equipment is already built in because you can get access after purchase without additional hardware.
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  • Aug 22, 2014
    schonelucht
    Answering my own question earlier : Tesla is indeed deferring supercharger revenue and recognizing it gradually over the period of expected service. From the latest quarterly filing under Revenue Recognition

    Another refinement on my earlier numbers : in June, they delivered 1GWh through the superchargers. At that time around 100 sites were active so it's 10MWh per site. Again taking the average of 40 kWh per charge this leaves us with 250 visits per site or about 8 per day throughout June. Just a bit lower than my estimated 10 visits but not a bad guess if I may say so. With these numbers I am quite confident that the electricity cost to run one supercharger site in Europe are around $1300 per month.
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  • Aug 27, 2014
    RobStark
    BEV European Sales
    July 2014 YTD?

    Nissan Leaf 1,063 8,145
    Tesla Model S 398 5,838
    BMW i3 768 5,688
    Volkswagen e-up! 578 4,076
    Smart Fortwo 226 1,364


    i3 includes both BEV and Rex?
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  • Aug 27, 2014
    Norse
    Government sources claims that Norway will not impose duties in EVs. This is pretty important since the model S sells a lot of cars in Norway, but it also sends a signal to the rest of the world.

    - Ikke moms på elbiler - Elbil - VG (Norwegian)
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  • Aug 27, 2014
    RobStark
    This article is regarding a value added tax(VAT) on EVs correct?

    No VAT through 2016 but maybe a VAT starting in 2017?
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  • Aug 27, 2014
    Norse
    Yes, so we norwegian has some work a head of us as 2017 is election year, and believe me, taxes will matter. It is also clear that it will not increase by a lot when it eventually happen. It is suggested 8% increase each year.
    Two years ago no one in Norway spoke publicly about leaving the oil in the ground. Now we do, and I think we can thank Elon Musk for that. I even know a guy who is leaving his oil job with a annual salary of $150 000 because he is convinced about the climate change.
    The awareness grows every day, and hopefully we will se no taxes on EVs in Norway when the model 3 launches. Especially since my family will be buying 5 of them.
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  • Aug 28, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    The phase-in of VAT has been rumoured to be like this:

    2016: 8% VAT
    2017: 12% VAT
    2018: 16% VAT
    2019: 20% VAT (My own extrapolation)
    2020: 25% VAT (My own extrapolation)

    Long term, I think the potential for Tesla in Norway is big, even with taxes. With 16% VAT, a Model 3 would cost about as much as VW Golf and similar cars. And with an average fuel saving of around $1300/year, you wouldn't need to plan on keeping the car for very long before the Model 3 would be significantly cheaper. Even with 25% VAT, the fuel savings would mean that a Model 3 would break even compared to a Golf in 2-3 years.

    And of course, the Model 3 should be a lot more car for one's money. The cheapest Golfs here have either a 90 hp diesel engine or an 85 hp gas engine. Upgrading the engine is fairly expensive. (Going from the 85 hp gas engine to a 105 hp gas engine adds $4.500 to the price. Going up from 105 hp to 122 hp adds another $3.500. Going from 122 hp to 184 hp adds another $16.000.)

    It wouldn't surprise me if Tesla could sell at least 15k Model 3 in Norway each year. Adding 5k Model S/X, would mean that Tesla would have a ~15% market share, and would be the largest car company in Norway (closely followed by VW and Toyota).
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  • Sep 2, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    There were four new Model S registrations in Estonia in August. Just in case someone's gathering the statistics ;)
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  • Sep 2, 2014
    blakegallagher
    I hear President Obama is heading to Estonia today to assure them that if Russia attacked they would be defended. I heard this on US Public Radio I was curious if this was getting much airtime on the TVs in radio in Estonia and in the greater EU area.
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  • Sep 2, 2014
    mostapasta
    First pass for August registrations:
    Europe Aug14.png
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  • Sep 2, 2014
    hileyms
    It was reported UK Deliveries - Page 5 #49 that about 200 had been delivered in the UK by end of July. I have tried to get detailed figures for the by month but nothing so far.
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  • Sep 2, 2014
    matbl
    Swedish number is totally wrong. Something went wrong with the statistics reporting for august.
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  • Sep 2, 2014
    mostapasta
    Thanks matbl, I'll keep watching to see if they update the statistic!
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  • Sep 2, 2014
    schonelucht
    The Netherlands : 70 Model S sales in August (129 in May, 5 in August 2013). (Source : BOVAG)
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    matbl
    No they won't. But another source which actually uses the official registration database says 21 for Sweden for August.
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    matbl
  • Sep 3, 2014
    dirkhh
    The article appears well researched and offers data based on empirical tests.
    I can't see anything where I could say "you got that wrong".
    Yes, motor performance craters under heat. And you can't really drive the car hard at German speed. They tested at a very slow 75mp/h which is actually being generous... That's not the typical speed purple in 100kEUR cats tend to drive.
    So besides fan-boy-ism... What would you want to criticize?
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    Newb
    This "test" and related articles have been called "AMSgate" here in Germany and it already got an appropriate reaction from the upset EV community.

    See here:
    http://e-auto.tv/amsgate-eine-chronik.html

    http://e-auto.tv/reichweite-von-elektroautos-im-praxistest.html

    "Autobild" and "Auto-Motor-Sport" have always been sceptics of EVs in general and non-Volkswagen EVs in specific. "Die Welt" also have joined the anti-Tesla campaign (most recently they published this over-negative article: Tesla Model S im Test : Beim dritten Gasstoß fängt das Schwächeln an - Nachrichten Motor - DIE WELT).

    I think it's a shame and even a scandal that people who call themselves "journalists" eagerly spread around their negativity (even if it's truly their own negative opinion) about EVs / Tesla. Of course they might simply be passionate about ICEs and about cars made in Germany, but how about balanced reports and fair tests? How about reflecting EV customer's opinions? None of that present in most of German automobile magazines thus far. They simply ignore the huge satisfaction of Tesla owners in Germany as well as the fascination in people's eyes after test drive experience. You can clearly see the immense bias in the Autobild-, AMS- and Die Welt-articles and I find it always quite embarassing to read that unbalanced crap.
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    dirkhh
    Hmm. We must have read different articles then. The one I read did a really good job showing some of the challenges that I experience with my Model S. And it should help avoid incorrect expectations about performance when got or cold.
    Can you point out factual errors?
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    Newb
    Sure. The whole test was in many people's opinion methodologically unsound. Here I go with the most problematic claim:

    "The Tesla's range drops to 184 km (115 US miles!) when constantly driving 120 km/h (75 mph)." (weather condition: fair, 23 degrees Celsius [74 degrees Fahrenheit])

    Multiple tests from Tesla owners here in Germany have shown that this is a blatant lie (or: artificially produced result) :

    as you can see here:
    http://e-auto.tv/reichweite-von-elektroautos-im-praxistest.html

    The Tesla owners report an 363 km range (on average!) under the same conditions, which is almost twice as much as "tested" by the magazine. and by the way, all of this refers to the P85+.
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    Robert.Boston
    And we have lots of data about driving at 75mph from the US. In fair, temperate conditions, I get close to rated range at 75mph (with A/C off, windows up). Maybe a 10% hit (330 wh/mile).

    I wonder if they had all the windows down and pano roof wide open? Those add a lot of drag, especially at high speeds.
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    TSLAopt
    even with windows down, pano wide open, music blasting, and heat or air conditioning on high it shouldn't make such a significant impact...possibly an extra 10-15% at most but not 50% like they are claiming...and I doubt they had the heat blasting (could be the biggest contributor to a decrease by 10-20%. In range in very very very cold weather and driving fast)

    - - - Updated - - -


    He he just did point out the factual errors, how did you not see that?
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  • Sep 3, 2014
    dirkhh
    I was wondering about that one, but without more data on how and what exactly they tested I can't tell one way or the other. I certainly see a significant increase of Wh/mile at 75mph. But not 2x.

    So I assumed that something was badly edited there... earlier the article said "    Doch das Model S hat Schwierigkeiten, diese Performance auch bei K�lte und Hitze zu halten. Die Reichweiten brechen stark ein (bei konstant 120 km/h um die H�lfte)" - roughly translated "But the Model S has problems to keep this performance in the presence of cold and heat. The range drops dramatically (by half at a constant 120km/h)." I read this to mean that they tested at very low or very high temperatures and at 120km/h the range dropped by 50% compared to 23�C.
    And having driven my car at -5�C I find that reasonably believable.

    But frankly, that's one of many points made in the article. And the majority of what's said rings true to me.
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    Newb
    Fair enough, but not to my ears. Here's a couple of other strange/doubtful results from the test:

    Tesla P85+:
    - 342 km (212 miles) of range in the test cycle (again ~74 degrees Fahrenheit outside temperature; a/c on; other consumers (radio) on; average speed: 37 mph; with some braking and (normal) accelerating) ...
    - 0-60 mph: 4.7 seconds ...

    And, surprise surprise, the VW e-Golf is being praised for its "highly reliable range numbers".

    With regards to the 115 miles range with a constant 75 mph, here is the original quote from the magazine:
    "342 km erreicht das Model S so bei 23� C auf dem T�V-Pr�fstand. Ebenso wichtig ist die Reichweitenkonstanz, hier bricht der Tesla auf der Autobahn um die H�lfte auf 184 km bei konstant 120 km/h ein."

    EDIT:

    I'm not saying all claims are untrue. Of course, Model S (as any other EV btw) suffers from substantial energy consumption in the winter, mainly due to heating. But what I sincerely oppose is unfair and unbalanced testing, untrue claims, ignorance towars owner's experience, original data from the real cars on the road or other test results, plus the negative tone.
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    Gerardf
    I did leave a comment (in German) about that last statement being wrong a few hours ago.
    Still not showing up on the page.
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    RobStark
    The tested range numbers plus the kind worlds for VW electric efforts rings closer to Deutschland �ber alles than the criticisms of Tesla fanboyism.
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    Talkredius
    okay I try to translate as best as possible the key points


    the ams didn't drive the car until empty.
    a) They let the car sit in hot humid weather (30C�) for some time. Then they let the car cool down to 20 C� and drove 31 [email�protected] speed of 120 km/h on a test high speed track.
    b) Then they charged the car at 230 V, 13 Amp single phase until it was full and calculated the losses during charging.
    keep in mind : usual charging in Germany is [email�protected] A or 32 A
    c) Then they reduced the shown range by the charging loss.
    Example : if the charging loss was 50 km rated range then they would say, the max range of the Model S is 452 km instead of 502 km (usual range of a new car according to NEDC)
    d) With the reduced rated range they calculated based on the energy consumption during the 31 km test drive a range of 184 km for a full battery
    e) they printed a graphic which says that you can drive only 184 [email�protected]/h on a the Autobahn. (Keep in mind, they never drove the car on the Autobahn )
    They did this in the same manner with VW eGolf, Twizzy, BMWi3 and Nissan Leaf

    So Eberhard President of TFF e.V. ( Tesla Fahrer und Freunde / Tesla Drivers and Friends) and me , Vicepresident of TFF e.V. decided to invite German press and TV to a crowd organized test drive of private EV drivers on 23.8.2014 in Hilden. We did drive on the Autobahn, the average driven was [email�protected]/h on the Autobahn for the Model S.
    The record holder on this day had driven 554 km with 10 km rated range left, of course with a lower speed but still on the Autobahn.
    We had a excellent news coverage, even German TV at prime time. Now the Model S is known as the EV which can drive more than 500 km with a single charge on the Autobahn:biggrin:
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    Talkredius
    To make this absolute clear : there were two tests

    a) the TueV Sued test which was done independently from ams but paid by ams.
    Results : 350 km range at 23C� and 248 km @-7C� with the special test conditions defined by TueV Sued

    b) the "test" of the ams described in the above post

    In the printed ams it looks, as if there was only one test, done and supported by the TueV Sued, but the TueV Sued didn't support the ams "test"
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    Newb
    Geez, I reckoned their methods were unsound, but this is even worse, also given that they claim 23C degrees outside temperature.

    So, this is clearly part of some FUD (as Americans would call it, I guess) .

    a big thank you to you and the TFF community for the real-world tests you made. I also applaude German TV for haveing picked this up.
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    Talkredius
    guess who is placing the most ads in this paper...:wink:
    �
  • Sep 3, 2014
    Mario Kadastik
    Oh the TV and radio may have talked about something other than Obama during the day, but I didn't hear/see that part :D But the public speech he gave here is one for the history books. It's totally off-topic, but for anyone interested here's the speech https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNVKspJfebk it couldn't have stoked national pride more even if it had tried to. And I think most Estonians are satisfied that our big ally would indeed come to our aid if push came to shove.
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    hobbes
  • Sep 4, 2014
    schonelucht
    For the UK, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders releases monthly data. Unfortunately, Tesla is lumped in the 'Other imports' category. When comparing 2013 to 2014 in the months before Tesla started importing into the UK, growth in that category was between 5 and 10%. This is inline with the general market evolution and, I feel, a credible assumption. Let's assume the same trend holds for the months of June, July and August then the difference between the 2014 number and the 2013 number restated for a 5% growth in the general market should give us a fairly accurate view on the number of Teslas registered in the UK.


    		20132013+5%2014Difference (= +- Tesla S)
    June98103273170
    July899318087
    August3032150118
    Total217228603375
    The number in the 2014 column is the hard upper limit, but the number in the last column is far more likely. It also better fits the typical Tesla pattern of having a low number of imports in the first month of a quarter.
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    hobbes
    Nice calculation. In Germany Tesla numbers used to be in the others category, too, now they are reported indivually, maybe they�ll do that in the UK soon, too.

    Just do validate your model, maybe you could expand the table to start a few months before Tesla started deliveries. There the Difference column should show values around zero. If it doesn�t maybe its better to use the 2013+10% instead of 2013+5%.

    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    schonelucht
    Well, good thing you enticed me to do so. Because it seems the months before June show a big variation in the numbers and I happened to sample the one month that goes against the grain. Here's the full table


    		20132014
    January6354
    February149
    March138146
    April9476
    May10665
    So Other imports may actually be on a downward trend for 2014 in the UK which would allow for some upside (by 5-15 cars/month) in the numbers of Teslas delivered I posted earlier. This brings the June number very close to 200, a number from a completely different source, another indicator that this methodology may be accurate.
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    mostapasta
    I like that UK estimate schonelucht. I tried contacting SMMT UK, but they refused to break out Tesla at this point.

    So far:
    Europe.PNG
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    hobbes
    Prepared a plot of your numbers, showing difference in monthly sales 2014 - 2013. The horizontal lines are the averages Jan-May and Jun-Aug, the difference between those two is 129 cars, which would be my best guess for Model S sales average Jun-Aug, so 390 total rounded, always assuming all the extra cars are Teslas. And for June, this really looks like 200.

    Actually, the lower number in "other EV sales" could be people who had ordered their Model S and didn�t buy another EV because of that.

    Screen shot 2014-09-04 at 1.46.09 PM.png
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    Newb
    Lately, I was thinking about the prospective EU market situation for the upcoming Model X, and I would like to share some thoughts on the potential sales numbers of the Model X over here in Germany.

    1. Tesla Model S has a market segment share of 2.6% in Germany ("Oberklasse", i.e. S-Class/CLS-Class, Audi A7/8, BMW 6/7, etc.). Given that this share won't change and total sales in the segment stay on course, we will have about 800 new Model S registrations in 2014 in Germany. (Total Oberklasse segment: estimated 30.500 cars in 2014)

    2. Tesla Model X will (most probably) join the "Gel�ndewagen" segment (Audi Q5/Q7, BMW X5/X6, Mercedes ML-Class, Porsche Cayenne/Macan) which is much larger here in Germany. We are well on track to have 240.000 cars registered in this segment in 2014. If Tesla Model X is at least as popular as the Model S (2.6% of the segment), that would sum up to a potential of 6240 Model X registrations in 2015 (given that segment size remains the same more or less). But, of course, since deliveries to the EU will only start in (late) summer 2015, actual registrations will be much much lower, probably won't even hit the 1.000 mark, I'd guess.

    But at least those numbers point to the much higher potential for Tesla Model X sales in Germany, compared to the Model S. SUVs are simply much more popular than luxury class / premium sedans. To be fair, the 240k cars in this segment mentioned above, also involves less expensive small SUVs like the Audi Q3 and VW Tiguan, which both account for more than one third of the whole segment. In any case, and this is the bottom line, I think, market potential for Model X is significantly bigger than for the Model S over here.
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    Rebel44
    It would be nice if in response to current crisis in Ukraine, EU pushed people and companies to decrease consumption of oil and natural gas by promoting efficiency and alternatives - scrapping VAT on EVs would be good way to help with that.
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    matbl
    I kind of disagree with your numbers but not necessarily with your conclusion in your last sentence. For the numbers to be relevant, I think you need to place Model S in the same class as BMW 5, Audi A6 and Mercedes E-class in point 1 and then recalculate. And I say that currently driving a Model S and my two previous cars were BMW 5'ers.
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    Newb
    Well, it is not a matter of me putting the Model S in a class with BMW 7, Audi 7/8, S-Class, etc.. It's the German Federal Office for Motor Vehicles which assigns cars into segments/classes, based on some specific aspects. Model S is in the so called Oberklasse-Segment, and there it has a 2.6% market share in Germany. And the numbers I have posted, are official registration numbers from that very federal office with some basic math (extrapolation for the whole year).

    Source, if you want to check yourself: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Startseite
    �
  • Sep 4, 2014
    matbl
    Ok. Didn't know who classified what in Germany. Sorry.
    �
  • Sep 7, 2014
    AustinPowers
    Plus, Model S fits much better in the Oberklasse Segment. It is as big (size, weight) as the other models in that class, and it costs as much.
    You can't really compare it with a 5 series, E-class or A6.
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    matbl
    I sincerely disagree. The MS does not provide anywhere near the interior comfort and luxury that usually standard in the oberklasse. It doesn't even provide interior comfort on par with BMW 5, Mercedes E or Audi A6 in my opinion but due to size it belongs there anyway. I would actually compare it more to a Volvo V70...
    As for weight, that's entirely because it's electric which is also why it has the high pricetag. And that's why most of us (incl me) bought it. If the MS would be like it is but with an ICE, no way even if it cost half...

    Note about interior: some like it, some don't, it all comes down to taste, but to say that it matches the other cars in the oberklasse is to stretch it just a bit too far...
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    dirkhh
    Good luck with this argument. I've tried for the past year to get people to see that while the Model S might compare to A8, S Class and 7 series in price, it does not in level of fit and finish and available options.
    But people don't like this argument. It means to have to compare yourself to A6, E Class and 5 series. Which makes the numbers for what is "winning" so much more challenging...
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    uselesslogin
    Well I am in the silent majority that completely agrees with this. That being said I am pretty sure that Elon agrees with this and intends to drastically improve the interior now that they have access to all suppliers.
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    matbl
    Now that they have access to all suppliers? What does that mean?
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    DaveT
    I think it's comparing apples with oranges.

    The Model S doesn't have the lux plush or some of the safety features of the S Class, 7 series or A8. But those cars don't have the tech features of the Model S (huge center screen, OTA updates, smartphone app, dual screen navigation, and many more).
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    dirkhh
    Early on many suppliers were worried about Tesla's ability to survive and to live up to contractual obligations. This problem should be mostly history.
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    They've reportedly found it much easier to get suppliers interested for the Model X.
    �
  • Sep 8, 2014
    RobStark
    How well a car measures up in its class is irrelevant to what class/segment it is in.

    Class/segment is determined by exterior dimensions,weight, interior volume, trunk/storage volume and price.

    Before the current revamp the Jaguar XJ was a complete POS. Didn't mean it was not in in the Oberklasse.

    As the German Government determined, the Model S belongs in the Oberklasse.
    �
  • Sep 9, 2014
    AustinPowers
    +1 Well said.
    �
  • Sep 24, 2014
    Fast Laner
    Just my opinion on the draft law "elektromobilitaetsgesetz" in germany started today by the bundeskabinett (secretaries of state ps chanzler) to support ev - mobility in germany.

    It is not worth the paper it is printed on.
    �
  • Sep 24, 2014
    StapleGun
    Care to elaborate? I didn't find the actual text but I read the Google translation of this article. It seems that the law would give EV's cheaper parking in some places and reserve spots for public charging.
    �
  • Sep 24, 2014
    Fast Laner
    The draft law regulates where to ride or park with an ev, means just the usage of such.
    To qualify you would need a new and special license plate, "hey look at this car, it's a foolish ev driver"

    - Definition of privileging E - vehicles ,
    - Marking on the license plate ,
    - Parking and stopping regulations ,
    - Use of bus lanes , (big cities would not allow this).
    - Repeal of Access Forbidden .

    Under the scope of the Act is comprised of pure battery electric vehicles ,
    environmentally friendly rechargeable external hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles .
    �
  • Sep 27, 2014
    maxwell
    Yesterday i went with two of my buddies to the TESLA Store Stuttgart in Germany for a test ride. Unfortunately not to buy one, but to let my friend experience the so called "TESLA smile" and the technology. The friendly and young staff there was very competent. It was a pleasure and we felt no buying pressure or other arrogant behaviour like in other big car manufacturers stiff or formal stores. I asked how many cars they sell at the moment. Luckily the In Store Product Specialist told us, that they received more than ten cars that day and will receive more than ten on monday. Very busy times right now, he told me. IMHO compared to the totally new registered 520 Model S in 2014 (from January to August) that's a quite high rate just for one Store in the middle of Daimler- and Porsche-City. Interestingly the test ride led us infront of the Porsche Development Centre where we demonstratively turned around. Nice test route choice guys!

    View attachment 60130

    Link to German car registration agency, if you want to follow the monthly numbers (English version is not that detailled):
    Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - 2014

    August statistics (sorted after brands and its models):
    http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publikationen/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/FZ/2014_monatlich/FZ10/fz10_2014_08_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2

    Newb also got his numbers from here.
    �
  • Sep 27, 2014
    Ingenieur
    Well question is, is it true, you dont tell customer "Nobody wants one", strange they suddenly sell almost the monthly number within a week at just one location, we will see in few weeks, would imply sales of over 200 units for germany, still far cry from "expected" 1000 a month in Spiegel interview year ago.


    I was offered to choose from pool of more then 10 "loaners" some with less then 200 miles on them to be picked up, it was 06.09.2014 at Tesla D�sseldorf, not all cars were on-site though.
    �
  • Sep 27, 2014
    Yggdrasill
    These last few days before the end of the quarter will undoubtedly be busy. They want to push as much of the inventory as they can out the door, to make the 3rd quarter numbers look good. After the end of quarter rush, the pipeline will be empty, so October will be very quiet, while they wait for new cars to make their way from the factory.
    �
  • Sep 27, 2014
    RobStark
    Tesla,currently, does not have have the production to supply 1000/month to Germany even if the demand was there.

    When Elon was in Germany to deliver the first Model S in Germany he said he hoped for 300-400 per month.

    Even if it takes 2-3 years to get there it is fine as long as overall global demand exceeds production.
    �
  • Sep 27, 2014
    VolkerP
    I attended boh town hall meetings with Elon in Munich, Oct 2013 and Jan 2014. I personally heard Elon talk about 200 to 300 cars a week, delivery within a fortnight. The auditorium reacted with a sharp inhalation. The general consensus seemed: impossible, but if someone tackles impossible things, it is Elon.

    Asides from that, I agree that German market response doesn't move a comma in Tesla's sales numbers.
    �
  • Sep 28, 2014
    maxwell
    I have to add that my numbers (...receive more than ten cars on friday and monday) were a little conservative and not precise, i don't remember exactly, might be he talked about 15 and 17. But it sounded more like a peak situation, not that this would be daily business.

    Also interesting news few days ago is that the Stuttgart regional politian Nicola Schelling earned criticism after she chose to have a Model as a business car. Other politicians found it insensitive to not choose a car from Stuttgart car makers. According to them she would have found comparable cars there. She could have chosen a Mercedes B class electric for example (ironically also Tesla tec inside i remember). But the great range convinced her to choose Model S. In the end, she chose to lease the Model S privately to avoid further discussions. Another good example where public people like her stand up for somthing they believe is simply the best solution that is available at the moment. And generate another free marketing for TESLA too ;)

    The German articles of the local Stuttgart news:

    Dienstwagen nicht aus Stuttgart: Starke Frau der Region eckt mit US-Dienstauto an - Stuttgart - Stuttgarter Nachrichten
    Dienstwagen: Regional-Chefin fährt Tesla statt Mercedes - Stuttgart - Stuttgarter Nachrichten
    �
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