May 13, 2014
hummingbird Someone at another site posted the following regarding Norway's EV tax benefit, is this true? If so, what's the likelihood the 50,000 cap will be increased before it is reached?
"You can sell everything electric in Norway because of tax benefit. But that is only for the first 50.000 EVs. Now they have overpass 32.000 EVs registration and there are new competitors, i3, Kia Soul electric, E-Golf"
�
May 13, 2014
taraquin When the total number og EVs passes 50k they may change or remove som of the incentives.�
May 14, 2014
Alfred Where is that number from? According to a Tesla representative in Zurich, between September 2013 (when deliveries started) and May 2014, about 460 Model have been registered. He also stated that Switzerland is the second most important market for Tesla in Europe, after Norway.�
May 14, 2014
schonelucht Tesla sold over 1400 cars in the Netherlands since September, that makes Switzerland the 3rd most important European market.�
May 14, 2014
Yggdrasill As taraquin said, they might remove or change some of the incentives after 50k.
Basically, all the parties have agreed to maintain the current incentives until 2017 or 50k eletric cars have been sold, whichever comes first. This does not however mean that the incentives expire or anything when the limits are reached. They will merely be renegotiated.
Personally, I think that the incentives will be gradually stepped down as more electric cars become available, and their cost decreases. There's still not a single party that has said they want to get rid of the incentives outright, at least.�
May 14, 2014
hummingbird @Yggdrasill and others from Norway region,
Norway deliveries were 1179 Q4 and 2056 Q1. How do you see this trending in the next two quarters? Care to give us a guess for Q2/Q3?�
May 14, 2014
Alfred are those in Holland identical with registrations in Holland. Could there be a "Tilburg-effect?�
May 14, 2014
Yggdrasill My guess:
Q2: 1000-2000
Q3: 1500-2500
Q4: 1500-2500
Sales are at an extremely high level, but with more superchargers, service centers and publicity, the trend should be stable or rising slightly. March, however, was probably an outlier.�
May 14, 2014
Newb Here you go: auto-schweiz: Autoverkäufe nach Modellen
Official statistics > representative talk�
May 14, 2014
Mario Kadastik Well my car arrived without plates or anything to indicate it saw the Netherlandish DMV. And i had to "pick up" from tilburg, which meant I sent a transport company to pick the car up. And I doubt transit license plates count as the ones in Estonia didn't get shown in statistics because in december there was just one car (mine) and the other Model S that arrived on the same truck and got transit plates to go on to Finland wasn't listed anywhere...�
May 14, 2014
32no 
It looks like the top 5 markets in Europe in terms of sales and store/service center/supercharger investments are:
1. Norway
2. Netherlands
3. Germany
4. Switzerland
5. Belgium
I also suspect that UK will overtake Switzerland and/or Belgium.
The red under Germany is an estimate. All of the numbers come from http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ and TMC. I would appreciate any number corrections.
EDIT:
Finland numbers corrected (Thanks Pate)
EDIT 2:
Sweden numbers corrected (Thanks Taraquin)
Estonia numbers corrected (Thanks Mario)
Switzerland numbers updated (Thanks Chillong)�
May 14, 2014
Pate The numbers for Finland are not correct. Here are the correct numbers:
December 2013 2 January 2014 1 February 2014 3 March 2014 9 April 2014 16 �
May 15, 2014
hummingbird @32no,
Thank you for the detailed spreadsheet. A suggestion, you might as well add USA and Canada to it, then everything will add up nicely to ww figures reported by the company.
Would be appreciated by all if you could share the spreadsheet somehow. If not possible, that's ok too.
(Canada 2014 Jan to Apr: 20 19 119 20 )�
May 16, 2014
taraquin The Swedennumbers are wrong:
October 13: 8
November: 2
December: 6
January: 5
Total: 71 anno 1.may�
May 17, 2014
Mario Kadastik Also numbers for Estonia are not correct. The correct ones are:
Dec 1
Jan 0
Feb 1
Mar 3 (*1 officially registered, but the other two were paid to Tesla in March and loaded on truck)
Apr 0 (*2 registered in first week, but actually paid for to Tesla in March).
It seems there will be multiple in May as far as I know, could even be a doubling of the total car count. Will let you know in early June when the numbers are published.�
May 17, 2014
chillong April in Switzerland is 16�
May 19, 2014
hobbes 3 more SC under construction in Germany, so soon 8 in total!
Inofficial map:
TFF Forum Thema anzeigen - Supercharger in Europa�
May 19, 2014
DaveT I was re-watching videos from 2012/2013 where Elon and others talk about Model X and it's AWD system. I'm thinking that the extra motor will significantly improve top speed since two motors will be running together. When Tesla releases AWD for the Model S, I think this will solve the top speed/autobahn problem for Germany. AWD will also add acceleration (probably taking the Model S Performance AWD down to under 4 seconds 0-60mph). If there have been hesitation in Germany because of top speed of the Model S, this issue will likely soon be resolved with the Model S AWD. Just some food for thought.�
May 19, 2014
vgrinshpun Likely under 3.5 seconds. My P85+ is already under 4.0 seconds, without AWD.:biggrin:�
May 19, 2014
Johann Koeber Top speed by itself is not so much of a problem. Limited range at high speed much more so.
I went 600 km from Nuremburg to Berlin with only 1 SC along the way. I do not feel limited on the first (ca. 200 km) leg. But on the second leg 130 km/h is too much.�
May 19, 2014
DaveT Hey vgrinshpun (or others), what's your guess on the 0-60mph times for the Model X AWD (non-performance) and the Model X AWD Performance?
- - - Updated - - -
I think AWD w/two motors should help with the range problem at high speeds since the load will be spread out between the two motors allowing each motor to run at a lower rpm. Overall, my guess is the AWD system will allow for better range at higher speeds.�
May 19, 2014
abasile This might help some, but I expect the difference will be marginal since the existing motor is already quite efficient. Further aerodynamic improvements to help range are likely out of the question for the next few years (the current aerodynamics are already quite impressive). I think the only way to gain substantial range increases at high speeds will be by adding battery capacity. A 120 kWh battery would certainly help on the Autobahn.�
May 19, 2014
mrdoubleb Johann, at the risk of going slightly off topic, what's your range experience @130kmh on the highway? I know it's never a constant 130, plus there is elevation, wind, etc., but what is the "real European highway range"?�
May 19, 2014
DaveT It will be interesting to see the range of the Model S AWD at high speeds vs the range of the Model S rear-wheel drive at high speeds. If someone was driving on the autobahn at over 100mph+, my guess would be that the AWD would get substantially better range than the non-AWD Model S.
I ran across this video the other day and found it really interesting. If you're busy, just watch from 0:55. The Tesla employee shares how having two motors can be more efficient than having just one.
�
May 19, 2014
mrdoubleb I do not know if this has been linked before, but there is a wealth of good data on European car sales over at the ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturer's Association). The only bad news for us is that as Tesla sales are still small over here, so it's under "other". However, their statistics do show the trends in the EU27 + Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and we can even see how Tesla's main competitors are doing by brand.
The latest statistics released 4 days ago show a steady increase of EU car sales for about a year now - good news for us, I guess. Some of the highlights:
�
May 20, 2014
maxwell Just read this article: Germans say to electric cars - Energy Ticker - MarketWatch
It says that "In the next five years, German carmakers are expected to build 440,000 electric cars a year,..."
That's more or less the timeframe of the Gen. III. Sure they have enough production capacity in terms of more or less flexible production, and let's assume that they accomplish a good motor and controller, BUT:
Does anybody have a clue where they plan to get the batteries from? I read in other threads the gigafactories will be a major advantage for TESLA and i remember a sentence, but can't find the source, that "every month the "others" don't have a huge battery-factory, will be a head start for TESLA".�
May 20, 2014
chillong Some pretty big changes on the supercharger map for Europe for winter 14/15. Thats some commitment to Europe! Central Europe is pretty well covered now
Supercharger | Tesla Motors�
May 20, 2014
NigelM Welcome to TMC. Excellent question but no, I don't think it's been thought through, especially by the journalist.�
May 20, 2014
Robert.Boston I find it odd that Tesla is so densely blanketing some markets whilst entirely ignoring others. Germans like to holiday on the Spanish coast, but they'll have to leave their Teslas at home? And no trips up to the Baltics or down to Greece?�
May 20, 2014
hobbes From what I understand the top speed is not limited by power output, but by maximum RPMs with just one gear. Actually I guess when accelerating at a low speed, the power output is much higher than driving constantly at a high speed. So with a second motor, the main advantage is that you have four wheels to transfer the torque onto the road, so I would bet on greater acceleration (if the vehicle mass doesn�t go up too much), not higher top speed.�
May 20, 2014
chillong well, Elon's stated goal was to win the german market and for that you need a very dense SC distribution (High speed autobahn, germans attraction to cheap/free things). I think it makes sense to start building a dense network in central europe, where also the most potential buyers are waiting. And with that network, people can easily reach Italy, the Alps, southern France and even the Costa Brava. With these areas covered, most holiday areas are covered for the norwegian, dutch and germans. This is only winter 14/15, I hope they wont stop building SC after so Baltics, Eastern Europe, Spain, Southern Italy etc. can be covered.�
May 20, 2014
maxwell Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here. I try to find out more. Short introduction of mine: 0.03k years old, passioned engineer, i have many parallels to the "Oatmeal-Comic" because i'm luckily not talented with combustion things. I own no Model S, saving for it.
I hardly can imagine, that those mighty and intelligent companies do not prepare and sometimes waste their engineering-power with ICEs. A friend of mine is developing clutches, how boooring! Elon is right, they need competition to start EVs. Somebody has to show them.
I experienced many times that even richer people whom i try to convince to order a TESLA, want to wait until a german brand has a good one. "i can't come up with an american car" is unfortunately a frequent part of the answer. It's really an image-thing here.�
May 20, 2014
SebastianR I think the key is to make sure that Germans disassociate Tesla from GM (and other horrible US car makers) and associate Tesla with Apple and other high-tech US brands that are (even) recognized in Germany. Also, don't ever underestimate the power of a proper Probefahrt. Once you sat in a Tesla and experience the acceleration, the smooth ride and the vibration-free mode of transportation things will change. They will change slowly (it is Germany after all) but they will change.�
May 20, 2014
maxwell Exactly. Many of them like silicon valley technology. Go for PROBEFAHRT!�
May 21, 2014
Auzie It is a great pleasure to have you here maxwell.
Clutches design job is perhaps not the coolest job around, but your clutches designer friend might be getting some good karma points there.
Regarding Tesla winning German market, it might not be so difficult. I would expect the nation that has engineering in its genes to recognize and appreciate a good piece of engineering, regardless of where it comes from.�
May 21, 2014
Mario Kadastik I guess you read my post here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 432
Yes I would love to hear where they plan to take the batteries
- - - Updated - - -
Yes I've noticed it too. I sent Tesla the following picture that shows how they could with just 5 superchargers cover the Baltics as the speed limits in the region don't allow you to average above 90km/h anyway and therefore 300km real world distances are easily doable in an 85kWh Model S no matter what the weather is like. At a later date they can then double the count and reduce the distance to 150km, but at least they'd cover a huge region at a minimal cost and at the same time complete a circuit around the Baltic sea giving Norwegians and central EU the ability to travel to the eastern part as well as for example St Petersburg. Let's hope the SC planning team takes this into account.
Even more, there are incentives in place that could get Tesla to get 70% of the cost covered in LV and LT for the SC buildout. So I see no reason beyond prioritization why this shouldn't be done
�
May 21, 2014
Fast Laner High Robert,
Germans will move a Model S to the shores of North/Baltic Sea situated in Germany.
They will move it to a capital of a neighboring country or for the ski vacations in the alps.
But they will take the plane to the mediterean shores and have a rental car if needed.
Geography and habits in the Americas and Europe are quite different.
Fast Laner�
May 21, 2014
maxwell Let's assume that. In the case of winning the market i also betting on Gen. III, because i think this customer segment might be less connected to a certain brand. The wealthy people will probably buy a Model S and still keep some others. Now i know a man who bought a Model S in my region - try to figure out how to get a drive...
I worked in Switzerland for three years and had a VOLVO there. The fact that there is no Swiss car manufacturer makes them open to many brands. Good for TESLA! I saw my first Roadster there too (around 2009?). How awesome, i wish i could have seen its potential there.
Now, back in Germany, i went for a VW. Literally everybody knows how it works, you always find a friend who had exactly the same issue/problem before, and you have masses of spare parts and service points (which you won't need that much with a TESLA of course).
- - - Updated - - -
Ah the moat, that's it. I'll see what i can find out.
- - - Updated - - -
Completely agree. Spain or Greece = flying.�
Jun 2, 2014
maoing EU folks,
Any updates for May delivery number especially Norway/Germany and so on?�
Jun 2, 2014
Yggdrasill Some figures for Norway (April in paranthesis):
Tesla Model S: 371 (171)
Nissan Leaf: 342 (451)
BMW i3: 131 (236)
Other: 502
Total number of electric cars sold: 1346
The electric cars got a 10.9% market share, while it was 10.4% in April.
(More figures will follow - they've only released some of the figures.)�
Jun 2, 2014
maoing Thanks Yggdrasill. How does May number compare with Feburary number in Norway?
Never mind. I found it in previous post, it was 431 in Feburary.
�
Jun 3, 2014
Fast Laner Very good article on TESLA, Model S and china in german business journal "handelsblatt"
Oberklasse-Erfolg: Tesla zeigt VW die Rücklichter - Industrie - Unternehmen - Handelsblatt
enjoy!�
Jun 3, 2014
Mario Kadastik May registrations in Estonia: 1
I know one June registration already and a couple of cars are coming in the next few weeks, we'll know how many make it in June though.�
Jun 4, 2014
Pate May registrations in Finland: 12
One of them is mine.�
Jun 4, 2014
GSP Congratulations! :biggrin:
GSP�
Jun 4, 2014
matbl May registrations in Sweden: 24�
Jun 4, 2014
SebastianR May registrations in Germany still pending, didn't find anything on the KBA website just yet. Will keep you posted.�
Jun 4, 2014
schonelucht As reported (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/31956-Cijfers-en-statistiek-Model-S-in-NL) by fellow forum member EricR based on the open access web api of the official car registration service in the Netherlands, 138 model S's were registered in the Netherlands last month (and 7 so far in June).�
Jun 5, 2014
SebastianR This just in - according to the KBA 57 Model S registrations in Germany for May.
Source: http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publikationen/DE/FZ/2014_monatlich/FZ10/fz10_2014_05_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3�
Jun 5, 2014
SteveG3 Bloomberg article out this morning had the following comments about Germany:
"It represents the right direction, a paradigm change," said Michael Willberg, chief executive officer of German headphones maker Ultrasone AG. He got a Tesla Model S in February after driving Mercedes and Audi cars for 20 years and has driven from the Munich area to Berlin, Cologne and Dresden. "Tesla is the car of our times."
"Germany's premium automakers feel Tesla's rise more keenly because they're expected to be the biggest innovators," said Juergen Pieper, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Bankhaus Metzler. "Tesla will be able to win over people who'd normally buy a BMW. Even in Germany, people are lining up to test drive" the U.S. carmaker's Model S sedan, the brand's only car."
While the second comment sounds very encouraging, I take it with a grain of salt as I have no idea how reliable this analyst is (my experience of U.S. analysts is some are straight shooters, some are not... though those that are not have thus far only been among the bearish).�
Jun 5, 2014
Fast Laner High SteveG3!
Please see my post #222 on the same page about TESLA which is not writen by an analyst.�
Jun 5, 2014
SteveG3 Thanks Fast Laner. Had no idea how big a piece (40%) China was to VW sales.�
Jun 5, 2014
Chickenlittle Does tesla immediately raise price in Europe with the euro weakening. If not it may hurt margin or they could ship more to china�
Jun 7, 2014
matbl This can be easily checked in the Tesla MS design studio by selecting various european countries.
But no thry don't. It would be impossible as well since they get paid 4-5 months after confirmation when the price is locked down in local currency.
So instead they do like many other large companies doing international trade. They "insure" their exchange rates to some degree. Some one with better financial vocabulary can probably give the proper woed for it.�
Jun 8, 2014
Alfred Some interesting numbers and comments from Europe and elsewhere in this German language article from "Bilanz" in Switzerland.�
Jun 8, 2014
Auzie Alfred, thanks for posting the link.
It seems that Tesla is selling well due to 'wow' factor.
Swiss sales 2013
Porsche Panamera 232
Tesla 213
Merc S 189
BMW7 163
Audi 8 118
VW Phaeton 15
Swiss sales 2014
Merc S 186
Tesla 149�
Jun 8, 2014
Mario Kadastik Insignificant, but in Estonia there was 1 registration in May. Quite many got delayed to June. There's at least one June registration already and as far as I know next week a couple more cars are to be picked up from Tilburg.�
Jun 8, 2014
dirkhh So Mercedes S class stayed about flat in the two time frames you are comparing (not sure if this is all of 2013 or just the same months), but Tesla dropped more than 25%?
I may be missing your point.�
Jun 8, 2014
RobStark
I am pretty sure that is all of 2013 vs 2014 year to date.
The all new 2014 S Class is doing quite well all over the world.�
Jun 8, 2014
Auzie No point meant, I just listed the numbers as they are reported in the linked article.
2013 numbers are for the full year. 2014 numbers are up to the date of the article.�
Jun 9, 2014
matbl OT!
? I thought it was introduced in 2013?
Or are you confusing american model years with actual years?�
Jun 10, 2014
RobStark I never said the all new S Class was introduced in calendar year 2014.
I identified the new S Class as model year 2014. And it is so in the USA and Europe. The W222 S Class debuted on May 15 2013 in Sindelfingen ,Germay and entered production in June 2013. And commenced sales in September 2013 both in Europe and the USA. It was and is the 2014 S Class. I did not confuse anything.�
Jun 10, 2014
matbl In EU, only production dates are relevant. If it is produced in 2013, it is officially a 2013 model. Just like Tesla.
Another good example of this is BMW. Afaik, the make model changes up to 4 times a year. So production date is what counts...
In my opinion, this model year crap should really end.�
Jun 10, 2014
dirkhh Austria data for Tesla
Month # of Tesla registered Jan 6 Feb 7 Mar 25 Apr 8 May 10 �
Jun 10, 2014
32no 
Please inform me of any mistakes in the spreadsheet. I use http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ as the source for my numbers, and the rest of the numbers come from this thread.
Re-posting an updated version of my chart. It seems that Tesla is going to deliver around 3400 cars to Europe in this quarter. I also project that Tesla will deliver around 14,200 Model S to Europe this year with a quarterly break down of: 3056 cars in Q1, 3400 cars in Q2, 3800 cars in Q3, and 4000 cars in Q4. Tesla is expanding rapidly in Europe as they have 15 stores coming soon as well as 20 service centers coming soon. Also, the supercharger map for Europe shows 120+ locations for Winter 2014-2015. I suspect that European deliveries will continue to grow as there is expansion in the number of stores, service centers, and superchargers. Europe could grow to be the same deliveries as the US had in 2013, which would be about 18,000 deliveries. Also, in Europe, deliveries seem to be more reflective of demand than in the US. In addition the current wait time in all European countries is 4-5 months, which translates to a backlog of at least 4000 cars (potentially all the way up to 6000+).
Thanks Schonelucht for providing a link to Belgium numbers for April/May.�
Jun 10, 2014
bmek I like your table, and your forecasts. Given the recent deliveries of RHD in UK, what are the UK numbers in your forecast for Q2, Q3 and Q4? Also, how many deliveries do you forecast for Norway?�
Jun 10, 2014
maoing With Norway, Netherlands and Germany number is out, it sounds TM only delivered 1K or slightly more in April and May to EU. So to meet 3400 forcast, a 2400 to go in June? Which is more than 2193 in March. Will see frantic delivery again by end of quarter? Really can't understand this delivery pattern especially 1K cars supposed to be in the pipe by end of Q1.
�
Jun 10, 2014
32no I suspect that the total for April and May in Europe will be close to 1100, leaving 2300 for March. I'm not sure whether March was an anomaly, or something that we will be seeing again. I saw your post about China having a frenzy-like delivery rate, which makes me less sure that Europe will be the same as in March. If there are 1000 deliveries in China in Q2, and 3400 for Europe, that leaves 3100+ for the US (which seems about right). I don't see 2000 cars in China given the information that you provided, but 1500 is certainly possible. It seems that there are about 500 cars that are either going to China (to make the total 1500) or to Europe (to make the total 3400). I PM'ed the guy who initially mentioned the delivery frenzy in Norway (towards the end of March) to ask whether he has anything about this month yet.
vgrinshpun visited the London store while on vacation and the representative told him that the current in-store order rate is 50 per week, and there is a 50/50 split between online and in-store orders, which means the order rate back in April was about 100 cars per week. Elon Musk also said during the Sky News interview in UK that UK could become the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest market in the world for the Model S. China and US will probably be the top 2, and depending on how Norway and Germany (aggressive build out in Germany currently) pan out, the UK will be the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest market in the world.
I cannot say how Tesla will expand specifically in the UK market and Norway because the two of them are the largest wildcards in Europe.�
Jun 10, 2014
dirkhh "aggressive build out in Germany"... yeah, the numbers are indeed truly impressive.
57 Model S were registered in May (48 April, 143 March)
Compared to
171 BMW 7 series
173 VW Phaeton (seriously? 3:1 outsold by the Phaeton? that hurts)
211 Porsche Panerama
252 BMW 6 series
274 Audi A8/S8
355 Audi A7/S7/RS7
395 Mercedes CLS
905 Mercedes S (!!!!!)
It did outsell the Maserati Quatroporte (19) and the Bentley Continental (33)
I continue to be absolutely puzzled by the people talking up the success in Germany and the amazing market this will be.
I guess the one silver lining is that Model S is up ~20% while the "Upperclass" (Oberklasse) of cars overall was up only 2%
I'm too lazy to go back but I remember the posts after the 143 in March talking about the doubling month over month. Which gets us to 570 cars in Mai, right? Hey, only off by a factor of ten.
But who's counting. Clearly not the people who keep talking about what a great market Germany is for the Model S.
Sorry if I sound snarky. But clearly the data don't support the hype.�
Jun 10, 2014
Yggdrasill I doubt the current data would be of much use. In March, they had 2 weeks at the end of the month with about 100 deliveries per day. The cars might not have arrived yet.�
Jun 10, 2014
schonelucht Another addition for your spreadsheet, courtesy of fellow forum member Hans69 who delivers updated numbers for Belgium here : http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/31956-Cijfers-en-statistiek-Model-S-in-NL/page3?p=677698&viewfull=1#post677698
April 2014 10
May 2014 44�
Jun 11, 2014
32no Dirkhh, you seem to be missing the point. Tesla doesn't "build out" deliveries, they build out infrastructure such as stores, service centers, and superchargers. Do you really think Tesla is spending so much on this infrastructure just to be selling a little more than the Quttroporte and the Continental? Also, in the German market, foreign manufacturers need another component other than great cars, and that is time. The German market loves its own cars, and it takes more time than any other market to convince them to buy a foreign car. Obviously Tesla plans to try to challenge other automakers here because otherwise, they wouldn't build out such a network. You might make the argument that Germany gets more attention because it is the largest country in terms of population in Europe currently. However, it wouldn't make sense for Tesla to build out stores, service centers, and superchargers if there are no underlying sales or potential sales, regardless of population size of the country.
Also, just because deliveries are low in the first two months of the quarter, doesn't mean anything. June is the deciding month because like March, it is the last month of the quarter. Mark my words, June could bring 200 deliveries in Germany.�
Jun 11, 2014
dirkhh I don't think I'm missing your point at all. I just disagree with it. The investment in Germany is admirable and a necessary requirement for success, but it is not creating a commensurate return. The Portland store delivered more Model S last month than all of Germany. There is a long long long thread elsewhere about all the reasons why Tesla is underperforming in Germany. Opening more stores is not going to address those.�
Jun 11, 2014
Chickenlittle Yeah it's also underperforming in china and England. Very few cars delivered. Hong Kong a disaster no cars delivered. Depends on your time frame doesn't it�
Jun 11, 2014
Robert.Boston I do find it interesting that, no so many months ago, Elon was touting Germany as a high priority market for Tesla. China now seems to be the darling, although Tesla does continue to invest in building out the SC network in Germany. Has Tesla shifted focus away from Europe to Asia (the "pivot to Asia"?)�
Jun 11, 2014
Chickenlittle He did state a priority and is still treating it as such. Perhaps German pride underestimated but still staying the course. There is need to build out superchargers there for the rest of Europe anyway. I believe they will have success but will take time. There is risk of not concentrating on single area but I do not believe inconsistent with treating both Asia and Europe as priorities�
Jun 11, 2014
pz1975 He did make those quotes while he was in Germany. Maybe it was a bit of grandstanding for the locals? Not that I don't think Germany is important to Tesla, but I don't see why it necessarily has to be THE most important market with so many others with amazing potential - China, UK, eventually Japan, India...�
Jun 11, 2014
32no Are you telling me Tesla is wasting money opening new stores? They are opening more stores, service centers, and supercharging stations just to sell the same amount of cars? Elon did tell his team to spend money as fast as they could, but he also said not to waste it. In my books, opening more stores without creating more demand is a waste of money. Also, I stress again that a key component in Germany is time; buyers must be completely convinced that a foreign product is worthy because of national pride, and that takes time. Germany is currently the 4th largest market for Tesla in the world, and although that will change as the UK and China come online, Germany deliveries will continue to grow.�
Jun 11, 2014
chillong There is another point. Most of the Model S bought in the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland (plus from all the other countries) and Norway will drive on the German Autobahn quite frequently. A dense SC coverage in Germany is a big plus for those markets! Borders here are quite open these days....�
Jun 11, 2014
yngwie_2012 You guys have to be patient b4 seeing more Teslas on the autobahns. Its like tryin to sell cheese in Switzerland or France.
Germans also tend to analyse everything thoroughly b4 they can accept it. I think with more superchargers to come the sales numbers of model s will go up significantly. One big reason is Germans love free charging supplied by Tesla since the gas prices here are extremly high.�
Jun 11, 2014
kenliles I see you're point and it's valid; but the ICE machine was started in the US and more engrained here than anywhere in the world. If we can do it, anybody can. We're sell more trucks than cheese over here
Now if we were selling Beer, that might prove difficult�
Jun 11, 2014
dirkhh Instead of trying to rehash the same arguments here, please take a look at Europeanizing needed for the Model S
I strongly disagree that (regarding sales in Germany) "with more superchargers to come the sales numbers of model s will go up significantly". There's a lot more work to be done to make the Model S attractive to more high end German buyers.
Yes, the investment in super chargers makes sense as Germany is at the heart of Europe and many important transit routes cross through Germany.
But even if Tesla opens a store in every city with more than 50k people, that still doesn't mean that they will see thousands of cars sold.
So yes, 32no, I am telling you that Elon is overly optimistic when it comes to the German market and that he will continue to be disappointed by the numbers he'll get from Germany.
And all the people here who keep talking about the "soon to come massive upswing in sales in Germany" (my words, trying to characterize a sentiment) have yet to show any data that they are right - whereas I and several others have shown plenty of data to indicate that Germany will be a very tough market.�
Jun 11, 2014
RobStark Many a German will tell you the ICE machine was started by Mercedes Benz and no less ingrained in Germany than the US.
How quickly did American drivers switch from Cadillac and Lincoln to Mercedes and BMW?
Relative to early Tesla projections over performance in China will more than make-up for under performance in Germany.�
Jun 11, 2014
dirkhh Let's look at some data, comparing EU countries, their GDP and their Model S sales:
I think that's a reasonable stab at comparing - sales in Europe started at about the same time.
Country Norway Netherlands Germany Switzerland Belgium Denmark Austria France Sweden Model S sold 4584 1521 548 362 339 238 105 95 95 GDP Billion USD 516 801 3590 646 507 324 418 2739 552 cars per $B GDP 8.88 1.90 0.15 0.56 0.67 0.73 0.25 0.03 0.17
Tesla sales in China or the US are much harder to compare since they have been around much longer / shorter.
Just for kicks, let's look just as Q1 sales (which is what I have data for)
That's maybe somewhat comparable, but I'd have more caveats here - sales are somewhat established in all markets listed, the pipeline has started to fill (yes, Q2 might look better for Europe, so I'll be happy to update this in a month), but overall the expectation would be that the delivery / demand ratio is reasonably comparable.
USA Norway Netherlands Germany Switzerland Belgium Denmark Austria France Sweden Q1 3300 2056 207 239 133 136 111 39 58 34 cars per $B GDP 0.20 3.98 0.26 0.07 0.21 0.27 0.34 0.09 0.02 0.06
What stands out? Well, Norway clearly is an absolute outlier. The rest seems to be at about a 0.2 cars/$B GDP - Germany is a third of that.
So this uses available data - I'm sure that there are several grounds on which one could challenge the logic, but given the Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland (with no EV incentives) are trending ahead of the US, I'd say that Germany being quite a bit behind is significant.�
Jun 11, 2014
kenliles and they'd be largely right to tell me that. Although culturally ingrained on a mass basis, I'm not sure I wouldn't win that one; but arguable I'm sure. We did have an advantage of vast distances making the desire that much greater
Good point- it took a long time (at least relative to this conversation's topic); which I believe is a point in favor of my position; If we can do it.. so can our German friends
I agree- In fact, I see a slow German uptake as strategically important - any rapid adoption by Germany puts US, China, UK markets more at risk of under-providing to the detriment of those markets. Let the German market follow and naturally stagger itself further out when production is better equipped.�
Jun 11, 2014
schonelucht Interesting way to look at sales. Another obvious observation from this table is how much France is lagging. While it doesn't incentivize EVs a lot, it does have very cheap electricity. It ties in with how France is really being neglected by Tesla. No superchargers there for example (which would suit the rest of Europe more than superchargers in Germany over the summer). Despite there being a core of wealthy citizens both along the French Riviera and around Paris who could afford a model S. I've always wondered about that.�
Jun 12, 2014
RobStark Belgium has been equally neglected by Tesla(no Superchargers) yet sales are far higher than France. Maybe Dutch speaking Flanders has far higher sales than French speaking Wallonia ? Maybe Tesla expected far higher resistance in France or shall we say Chauvinism?
Interesting that primarily German speaking Switzerland has far higher sales per than Germany. Even German speaking Austria has far higher sales per than Germany. Could it be that consumers in these smaller countries are not as attached to the national brand? Speed limits in Austria are 81 mph and in Switzerland 75 mph. But even less autobahn capable BMW i3 is doing better in Germany than Model S.�
Jun 12, 2014
Alfred Indeed, Switzerland is often used as a test market as there is no local car industry. Otherwise the explanation is simple: Representation is currently in the center of Zurich and their service center is in nearby Winterthur. Basel has just been opened recently and Western Switzerland will follow soon. Remember also that deliveries only started in September last. Keep in mind that the Model S is a very large car on our roads and parking spots. Sales will therefore be constrained to this large car market, where it does very well so far.
We are a long way from steady-state marketing. Until a denser network of service points is up and running you will not see sales moving ahead in the western and southern parts of Switzerland or for that matter in Germany. No one is keen on driving hundreds of km on congested motorways just to have the car serviced. A frequent question I get is: And where do I have to go for servicing?�
Jun 12, 2014
SebastianR Careful with the i3 Numbers: they include dealer registrations to my knowledge. How many? No idea. And we should be careful not to make that an excuse for weak Tesla performance.
I think the attachment to national brands is one key element of the problem. The other is the way company cars are handled: typically if you are entitled to a company car, you go to one of the outsourced dealers who will have a range of options from Audi, BMW to Mercedes and Porsche. If you don't get a foot into that door, forget that market segment in Germany: most 5-Series BMW, E-Class Mercedes and A6 Audi are company cars that are not bought individually but through a long term agreement with the company you work at.�
Jun 12, 2014
Fast Laner the i3 Numbers do include dealer registrations.
The company orders these cars to the wishes of the upper and middle management and let's them drive these company cars, services and fuels them and pays the taxes on these cars, decreases the company's revenue by the money spent and thus saves taxes.�
Jun 12, 2014
Auzie Similar situation in Australia. Often there are restrictions on employees regarding choosing a car for lease. Employees can choose from a list of approved models. The market for "company cars" is significant.
On the other side, businesses with significant fleets (say hundreds and thousands of company cars) are sensitive to fuel costs. These high fuel consumption volumes and costs are often targeted by business's sustainability strategy. That may be Tesla's opportunity to enter this space.�
Jun 12, 2014
Robert.Boston The answer: Tesla Rangers come to you. I try to schedule service when I'm off on business travel. Tesla picks up the car, does the needful, and returns it. The only thing I see is that I have a freshly washed car on my return.�
Jun 12, 2014
Auzie Sorry for being ot, but how often is the service and what is serviced?�
Jun 13, 2014
VolkerP all answered here: Tesla Service | Tesla Motors�
Jun 13, 2014
Yggdrasill Some figures were posted at the Norwegian EV forum. 202 so far this month, 113 in the past three days; so we're definitely starting to see movement. If we assume 35 registered each weekday until the end of the month, we're looking at a total of 587. If assume the rate increases to 100 per day for the last 10 days of June, we're looking at 1377. So, anything is possible.�
Jun 13, 2014
Robert.Boston In addition to the scheduled service noted above, there are also a few times a year I have them do something. At a minimum, they swap the winter/summer wheels (for free, because I bought both sets from Tesla). My early-VIN car had an issue with the door handles and a stress-fractured windscreen. I've never paid Tesla for any service, although I did buy the 8-year ranger service owing to my distance from the service center (100 to 170 miles, depending on the season).�
Jun 13, 2014
Auzie Thanks Robert and VolkerP.
It seems to me that replacing brake pads, windshield vipers and wheels swap could be done by any car service center. Door handles and windscreen could be warranty issues. Not sure what is Tesla policy regarding non Tesla car service centers working on Tesla cars.�
Jun 14, 2014
Alfred To Robert: This new model of Service is not trusted. It is not the regular service that is the issue. When will he come? Next week perhaps, some time? A new concept has to prove itself before it is accepted.�
Jun 14, 2014
pz1975 I can only speak for my own personal experience but I have never seen a company with better customer service skills than Tesla. I've had to use the Ranger service 3 times since buying my Model S in September and each time they have surpassed my expectations in terms of timing and effort to make things as convenient as possible for me. None of my issues have been major (sunroof rattle, parking sensor pushed in, install the battery shield), but a Ranger has come to either fix it where I am (home or work) or take my car in and leave me a loaner within 2 days. Both time s I had a loaner they were back within 48 hours with my car. They also never try to sell you more service than what your car needs like every other car manufacturer's dealer service does.
One of my biggest hopes for Tesla is that they maintain this amazing customer service as they grow bigger.�
Jun 14, 2014
Robert.Boston Not trusted by whom? Read the rest of these forums; there isn't an active thread complaining about poor Ranger service. That's for a good reason: the system works, and works well. You're right, trust has to be earned. But it's fairly clear from the lack of systematic complaints that the experience of 25,000 owners with Tesla's service & rangers has been positive--not without some growing pains, but these seem mostly to relate to the hard-to-get loaners.
You say it's not "regular service" that's the problem, so are suggesting that you think it's emergency service that will be problematic? I've only had one experience here, and it was amazingly good. My (early-VIN) inverter just stopped working; the car messaged me, and I pulled safely over. I called Tesla, they sent a flatbed truck promptly, and we all went off to the Service Center. There, I was handed the keys to a loaner Model S, and the following day my car was back in my driveway, with the loaner returned.
I'm sure not every interaction with Tesla service will be this amazingly good, but so far, so good.�
Jun 14, 2014
SebastianR This is where some competition could come handy: many big procurement processes require the comparison of at least two viable options so having a Tesla Model S and a (hypothetically viable) BMW i5 to compare would help Tesla, too...
Now how do we hack government policy to require ZEV vehicles for all official cars - that would make quite a splash�
Jun 14, 2014
Cobos I might add that the experience with the primarily Oslo staff at the service center there has been a big hit and miss. I've been spared most major issues we had in Norway, but even I would rate Tesla service as OK to good, nothing more.
There is a huge differene between the experience here in Oslo and what I hear from the US. The Trondheim store and service center seems to be up to US standards for service, the others not so much. This is probably because there are way too many cars in Oslo area compared to number of employees and just space. But still the result is a service that is excellent and crappy at the same time.
Currently the Model S is so cheap here most can accept it, but to truly compete with BMW and their likes here they need to get concisently good every time.
Cobos�
Jun 15, 2014
Auzie Usually Fleet Manager and Procurement Manager sign agreement with say Toyota and Ford. Employees are offered a list of selected Toyota and Ford models. It is often possible to negotiate a make and model outside of the list.
Fuel reduction costs and good PR surrounding Tesla are great incentives for Fleet Managers. This market will be easy for Tesla imo.
I have a BMW and service it at BMW dealership. I do not pay for service due to the deal I got on the car. If I had to pay I would likely take car elsewhere.
I would in no way see BMW service as something that Tesla needs to strive to achieve.
My personal experience with BMW service is that there is a mismatch between what I would like to get and what is offered.
Here is how it is:
Call to book a service. Spot is given within say few weeks.
Drive a car to service center before 7:30am to leave the car. I would have preferred earlier but the center opens at 7:30am.
Several people turned up before the open time as we all have to make it to work from there.
Queue forms in front of concierge desk. The desk is in the car park, in front of the service door.
At 7:30 concierge and another person (doorman?) appear.
After 10-15 min wait, concierge finds my booking and instructs me to go inside and see particular Service Advisor.
I go inside large area with dozen or more desks. There is wait area in front of each desk and Advisor behind each desk, busy with paperwork or on the phone. Place looks like a bank, not car service center. Service Advisors wear suits and ties.
I wait another 15-20 min for my Advisor. Once he is off the phone and not busy, he asks me to approach. He takes my details, which I already provided at a time of booking, fills in the paperwork, takes my key and hands me loaner key.
In the afternoon, I come to pick up the car. I wait to see my Advisor. I ask few questions about the car and he can not answer, he has to contact mechanic to find out. That takes a while as he leaves the area and goes to workshop to find the mechanic. When he comes back I get some answers and that opens more questions in my mind. I do not ask any more as he would have to go see mechanic again, that would take too long, I do not want to wait in between each question and answer for my Advisor to go to the workshop and back.
Workshop and mechanic are off limits, behind walls. I can not bypass the Advisor and speak directly with the person that worked on my car. After Advisor hands me the paperwork, I am directed to wait at the concierge to get my car key.
As a customer I would have preferred to be able to deal directly with the person who works on my car and get first hand information.
If I have to pay for work on my car, stuff not covered with my deal, I take it to a local K-Mart Auto Shop as I prefer their service to BMW dealership. Service is faster, I can speak with anyone in the garage, garage is open (I can see my car at all times), and it is far cheaper. No concierge and no Service Advisors to shuffle me around.�
Jun 15, 2014
chillong One of the seven members (with equal executive powers) of the Federal Council in Switzerland (Doris Leuthard, the Head of the Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications) just announced that she wants to get a Model S as an official, representential car, which is usually the domain of Mercedes S Class or Audi A8/S8...
Tesla als Dienstfahrzeug für Doris Leuthard | handelszeitung.ch�
Jun 18, 2014
maxwell Just watched the soccer game Australia vs. Netherlands. In the break they showed a (i admit quite funny) TV spot for the e Golf:
Volkswagen. Der e-Golf. Das e-Auto. TV Spot - YouTube
Some tech. specs: Range max. 190 km, 24 kWh capacity, top speed 140 km/h and acceleration 4,2 seconds from 0 to 60 km/h. Wait? Why don't they state the 1-100 acceleration (around 10 secs). In my opinion they should not try to make that number looking fast. One can state the thesis that they just stopped the clock at 60 km and are happy that it's under 5 seconds. Charging: hard to find, can't remember where i read it (maybe in german): "in 30min up to 80%" But funny, when you search for the word "charge" on the page, you can't find anything. Come on! Price starting at 35k Euro.
Electric mobility: the e-Golf – Volkswagen
One can get the impression, that they are ready to sell... I wonder who delivers the battery and how their factory capacity might be and how many they actually sell. Sorry, but i will not order.�
Jun 18, 2014
32no Yggdrasil,
Could you link to the Norwegian forum thread that has a tally of deliveries? Would be appreciated.�
Jun 18, 2014
Matias I�m sure Tesla would sell rather well in Finland (we have CO2-depended car tax), if they only came to Finland. Tesla has already sold approximately 40 cars to Finland without official representation.
I�m going to buy one as soon as they open service here. I don�t want to take car to Stockholm for service. I know about ranger service, but I don�t want to pay for warranty repairs.�
Jun 19, 2014
Mario Kadastik I think Matias if you order now you won't have the car for long until the center opens. From what I understood Helsinki service center is still in the books for 2014. And if Finland already has 40+ cars delivered, then it won't be long as Tesla has said they don't want to keep a region without service center if there are ~100 cars there already and I think initially they might throw Estonia into the pot as well (we have 10 delivered cars with 10-20 more coming soon) so 100 is not that far off. And I think they were contemplating a semi permanent ranger presence in advance of opening a service center so the rangers in those regions would act as service centers and likely would be for free for warranty repairs.�
Jun 19, 2014
Matias In April there was a test drive event in Helsinki. Guy from Stockholm office said, that they would open service center and shop in Finland in 1Q15. I'm aiming my delivery on that. But I don't think 1Q15 is written in stone. From what I have understood, Tesla has rather flexible interpretation concerning time tables :wink:�
Jun 19, 2014
Mario Kadastik Yes, the same guys took the ferry over to Tallinn and spent four days in Tallinn right afterwards�
Jun 20, 2014
Robert.Boston Elon's temporal distortion field has a limited geographic range, apparently. "Coming Soon" definitely means something different in Fremont than in other parts of the world.�
Jun 22, 2014
schonelucht Earlier I reported 138 Model S sales in the Netherlands for may based on the open access api. The official numbers however are now out and the number is slightly lower : 125. Source : http://www.autoweek.nl/verkoopcijfers.php?verkoopjaar=2014&maand=5�
Jun 24, 2014
maoing Norway folks, how's the end of quarter delivery look like for Q2 ?
�
Jun 25, 2014
jkirkebo Hard to say as there is some technical problems with the registration service at this time, but my educated guess would be about 600 cars in June.�
Jul 1, 2014
schonelucht Based on reporting from Aumacon (Dutch car consultancy company) between 180 and 190 model S were sold this month (uncertainty due to different ways of counting and reporting), which would be in line with the 190 from the same month last quarter. Total for this quarter come in at around 360, up significantly from last quarter (207). But q-on-q comparisions in the Netherlands don't mean much for now since the incentives were reduced significantly at the start of this year. A lot of the deliveries that should have happened in the first quarter were actually moved forward to last quarter 2013. One note : the numbers from this month are not yet official though.�
Jul 1, 2014
matbl Q2 number for Sweden (copied from teslaclubsweden.se): 89
Month by month:
April: 21
May: 23
June: 45�
Jul 2, 2014
hummingbird Norway June 536
Norway June 536:
BILSALGET : OFV AS�
Jul 2, 2014
vgrinshpun Could you elaborate on what were the technical problems with the registration service? I am wondering whether this means that sizable quantity of cars were ready for delivery, i.e. prepped by Tesla, but were not delivered due to these technical problems. Could this affect deliveries as reported by Tesla, or the cars that were not registered will still count as delivered because money changed hands and Tesla paperwork was completed?
I am not familiar with the process in Norway, but in some US states, including my state, Tesla manufacturer paperwork with the State was not complete at the time the car was delivered to me, and because of this I needed to register the car with the state by myself, after it was delivered by Tesla. I.e. the car was counted as delivered to me, while I had a month after the delivery to register it with the State.�
Jul 2, 2014
RobStark Tesla targets 50% (UK)fleet sales with electric car
While Ell , Tesla's UK boss,refuses to be drawn on exact sales expectations, speaking exclusively to BusinessCar he offered the comparison with the Californian market: "The Model S outsells the S-class in California, which was the best seller in its class."
Last year Mercedes sold 1864 S-class models in the UK, taking first place and 30% of the luxury car segment
Tesla targets 50% fleet sales with electric car
�
Jul 3, 2014
Auzie Fleets will be an easy picking for Tesla, because of no fuel costs and low maintenance costs.
There are no Teslas here yet, but I will call my employer's lease provider to check if I can lease Tesla and at what costs. Update to come.�
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