Sep 28, 2014
evme Some interesting news, Tesla might already be looking for a European factory?
http://spectator.sme.sk/articles/view/55382/3/slovakia_in_talks_with_tesla_motors.html�
Sep 28, 2014
Auzie Thanks for links maxwell, very informative. For some reason, I could not open the attachment.
Tesla's sales in Germany do not appear to be going well.
It is a tough market for Tesla for many reasons. It must be very difficult for prominent locals to choose any foreign made car over domestic product, as such choice may be easily interpreted as a socio-political statement. This is likely to hamper Tesla sales in Germany.�
Sep 29, 2014
Just a Reader It's bizarre that a public official of her rank believed that she should be entitled to procure an official car in that price class. With the huge rebates available for government procurement an E-Class would have cost half as much. If she believes in making a statement for the environment, she is kindly invited to use public transport and to use a Golf from the car pool if that isn't an option.
It's also quite reasonable for tax payers to expect officials to support local industry. You wouldn't see a mid-level public official in Michigan using a S-Class as an official car, either.�
Sep 29, 2014
evme
But are we not getting into a catch 22 here? You see criticism of why are politicians asking us to get electric cars if they don't drive them themselves. Now you have a politician driving one and people complain because it is not a local brand? What if the Mercedes B electric or Golf have too low range to meet their needs? The statement here is the German brand needs to catch up and make a long range electric car.
Also, I am pretty sure the government probably covers the gas cost but does not cover electricity cost of politician.�
Sep 29, 2014
maxwell If you make a journey use your private car for business purposes you can get a compensation. In 2014 this is 0,30 �/km for a car (not relevant if electric or ICE). Other types of transportation have different costs. It's fixed in a law that i would translate as the "Federal Law of Journey Costs", the "Bundesreisekostengesetz".�
Sep 29, 2014
Just a Reader Currently very few people bother about politicians driving electric cars one way or the other. Support for electric cars is hardly a very popular demand. Most big cities have made it very clear that they do not support privileges for electric cars and they don't want to have private cars mucking up their public transport lanes, whatever propulsion system they may have.
At any rate there is no justification for a rather obscure mid-level politician to waste tens of thousands of Euros of tax payer money just because she wants to make a statement on electric cars. If she is allowed to use her private car for official business she gets a fixed reimbursement irrespective of the car she drives.�
Sep 29, 2014
maxwell Thank you Auzie, it's fun to contribute. I try to post that picture again:
- - - Updated - - -
Sure it's a regional mid-level politics topic, not country shaking news. At least the Stuttgart News reported a lot of positive feedback on saturday from it's readers for the courageously politician.
Stuttgart News Article:
http://www.stuttgarter-nachrichten.de/inhalt.us-dienstwagen-stoesst-auf-beifall-regional-chefin-mit-zivilcourage.0a30c66b-0c28-4da3-9c24-d9120d74325b.html�
Sep 29, 2014
evme If she is using a private car, how is she using tens of thousands of Euros of tax payer money?
The point is, if she is using a private car, that is her business what she drives. If she is buying it as an official car, then she still ends up saving tax payer's money on gas and maintenance.�
Sep 29, 2014
Auzie Rego sticker?
Is that registration sticker in the right top corner?
We do not use these any more in Ozland. Feels like great progress, abolishing these
�
Sep 29, 2014
Johann Koeber It is the green badge indicating the low pollution level of the car.
In some cities only green badged cars may enter.
I got a ticket in Berlin for not having this sticker. I challenged the ticket, let's see if they let me go.�
Sep 30, 2014
Just a Reader She wanted to buy it as an official car first. She only switched to buying it as a private car after encountering massive criticism. There is absolutely no way she would have saved the public anything if she had bought it as an official car, as government procurement receives huge rebates from Mercedes/BMW/Audi in Germany. Additionally, electricity is quite expensive in Germany.�
Sep 30, 2014
Auzie Ooo I really like that, green badged cars!!!How cool!
Now I see Germany in a different light. Less polluted:biggrin: light.
Hopefully you will resolve your ticket situation. I am curious how big is the fine for polluting? How does one get a green badge for a car?
For pollution lovers, pollution seems to be free here, unless someone dobs you in. Dobbing in is unlikely, judging by the exhausts fumes:crying: that I see every day around me. Maybe polluting engine gets picked up during registration checks, not sure, as I have not done registration checks for many years.�
Sep 30, 2014
maxwell There is an european emission standard: European emission standards - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The fine is 40 � according to this page: Environmental badge - Environmental badge
Depending on the EU emission standard of your vehicle the badge can be red, yellow or green: Umweltplakette/Feinstaubplakette - Informationen und Bestellm�glichkeit�
Sep 30, 2014
RobStark Europe Aug 2014 % '13Pl
1 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 1.144 12.114 20 3
2 Nissan Leaf 1.038 9.206 15 1
3 BMW i3 672 6.428 11 12
4 Tesla Model S 460 6.302 11 7
5 Renault Zoe 454 4.742 8 2
6 Volkswagen e-Up! 495 4.572 8 11
7 Volvo V60 Plug-In 244 3.930 7 4
8 Renault Kangoo ZE 295 2.495 4 5
9 Renault Twizy 208 1.565 3 10
10 Smart Fortwo ED 81 1.456 2?�
Sep 30, 2014
32no The 460 number excludes UK, while the 398 number for Model S in July includes UK.�
Oct 1, 2014
Auzie Thanks for links. After reading about the system, I realize it is different to what I thought it was. It seems to be almost like a toll for entering certain zones, providing vehicle qualifies for the zone.
40 � fine for non compliance seems to be low. Also badge seems to last as long as car registration. These seem to be symbolic measures, but I think they are still powerful.
High density population areas must deal with pollution in a more aggressive manner than low density areas. Hence EU has these regulations whilst in my country we have a freedom to pollute by unrestricted driving. There are some restricted areas where cars are not allowed, but the restriction is in place to ensure less traffic congestion, not less pollution.
I would not mind paying for a green badge, I like the message that such regulation conveys.�
Oct 1, 2014
StapleGun If I'm reading this webpage correctly it suggests 104 sales in Norway in September.�
Oct 1, 2014
uselesslogin I can't open it but it wouldn't be terribly surprising. It seems that many overseas customers that were built shortly after the line opened had their delivery slip into October. Others slipped even further because they presumably started making NA cars once they knew they would be unable to reach their destinations overseas before the end of the quarter.�
Oct 1, 2014
RobStark I got this from ev sales blogspot. Is it correct?
Germany
Electric vehicles and plug-ins in Germany are exempt from the annual circulation tax for a period of five years from the date of their first registration.
The private use of a company car is treated as taxable income in Germany and measured at a flat monthly rate of 1% of the vehicle's gross list price. So plug-in electric cars have been at a disadvantage since their price tag can be as much as double that of a car using a conventional internal combustion engine due to the high cost of the battery. In June 2013 German legislators approved a law that ends the tax disadvantage for corporate plug-in electric cars. The law allows private users to offset the list price with �500 per unit of battery size, expressed in kWh. The maximum offset was set at �10,000 corresponding to a 20 kWh battery.
In August 2014, the federal government announced its plan to introduce non-monetary incentives through new legislation to be effective by 1 February 2015. The proposed user benefits include measures to privilege battery-powered cars, fuel cell vehicles and some plug-in hybrids, just like Norway does, by granting local governments the authority to allow these vehicles into bus lanes, and to offer free parking and reserved parking spaces in locations with charging points. Not all plug-in hybrids will qualify for the benefits, only those with CO 2 emissions of no more than 50 g/km or with electric range of over 30 km (19 mi) are eligible.�
Oct 2, 2014
Right_Said_Fred Some good news from The Netherlands though: 289 Model S delivered in September! There were 70 in August and 31 in July, so 390 go towards Q3.
Source for September: http://www.bovag.nl/data/sitemanagement/media/20141001%20personenautoverkopen%20september%202014.pdf
Source for August: http://www.bovag.nl/data/sitemanagement/media/20140904%20personenautoverkopen%20augustus%202014.pdf
Source for July: http://www.bovag.nl/data/sitemanagement/media/20140801%20personenautoverkopen%20juli%202014(1).pdf�
Oct 2, 2014
TD1
I dont see how that would make any sense.
China should get the second factory.
reason:
1. The TTSIP inter Atlantic trade agreement will have free trade, so Tesla can just ship the Models from US to Europe.
2. China is the biggest market for Tesla outside of US, and its close to all the other soutasian markets. HK, Japan, Australia,
3. China offers huge incentives for manufacturers who produce in China.
But maybe I'm wrong and it makes more sense to build the second factory in Europe, with all the small eastern European countries, Tesla can use this competition to get the best incentives.
Same story as with the Gigafactory.
Slovakia largest car producer in the world | Visit Slovakia
really seems to be a good option for Tesla�
Oct 2, 2014
RobStark If Tesla is shipped from China it has a 5% import duty plus 51% profits are shared with local partner.
If Tesla is shipped from California there is 0% import duty thanks to the Australia United States Free Trade Agreement and Tesla keeps 100% of the profits.
I would wager Australia never sees Chinese Teslas even if they eliminate the 5% import duty.
Same hold true for Japan.
Chinese companies Cherry BYD Great Wall etc exporting to Japan and Australia from China makes sense.
Japanese/Korean/American companies forced to take on local partners then using China as a platform to export makes little sense.
Are the Germans(BMW MB Audi Porsche) exporting to Australia from China?�
Oct 2, 2014
RobStark Luxury,sales,and value added taxes are different from import duties or tariffs.
A Ford Fiesta that starts at under $14k in the USA starts at just under $20k in Australia.
It is just the reality of the Australian auto market.�
Oct 3, 2014
RobStark Part of the issue might be that Tesla does not give discounts to leasing companies nor offers deep discounted leases to businesses that lease large volumes.
Cheap electricity rates resulting from the American natural gas boom plus the weakening power of American Unions have lost the power to push wages up. Michigan,which was the heart of American Union power, is now a right-to-work state.
Like the German auto companies, Chinese made cars will be for Chinese customers only.
German brand cars made in China for local Chinese customers has not resulted in damage to German brands globally.
My guess is that the ultra-wealthy Chinese will continue to have a bias against Chinese made cars as well and be willing to pay the import duties to buy an American made Tesla.�
Oct 3, 2014
Bgarret Seems like this back and forth about Australia and incentives is a bit misplaced in the EU thread. Can mods start an Australia thread so this 2 way conversation doesn't take over the EU space?�
Oct 3, 2014
Auzie My apologies. I deleted misplaced posts.:smile:�
Oct 3, 2014
kenliles :smile: there's no such thing as a misplaced Aussie:smile:�
Oct 6, 2014
Ingenieur 56 Model S sold in Germany in September, so much for Dozens of cars�
Oct 6, 2014
ltreasure Not really a surprise, is it? Keep in mind that the factory was down, and the push for NA cars to reach Q3 guidance. October will be low as well.
Wait for November to see higher volumes.�
Oct 6, 2014
Blvr888 Source please?�
Oct 6, 2014
maxwell The source for the German numbers could be near this one:
Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - 2014
At the moment the newest monthly statistics is August. Following the monthly link the .pdf with "Neuzulassungen von Personenkraftwagen im August 2014 nach Marken und Modellreihen" are the new registered cars in that month. They are sorted according Brand and Models. If the 56 are true, i'm glad that the number is at least higher than the 32 (peak situation), which i proclaimed in an earlier post 420 (Link: #420) for the Stuttgart region.�
Oct 6, 2014
Ingenieur Source is call KBA per phone, sept data out, tables go online few days later�
Oct 6, 2014
Blvr888 Thanks. On a more positive note - it's 17% increase from August :wink:�
Oct 9, 2014
mostapasta 
Here is what I have for Europe so far. Unfortunately, the sales this quarter are going to have a huge unknown since they will theoretically be mostly China/US.�
Oct 11, 2014
SBenson Does anyone know what's the wait-time in Norway and Netherlands? I can't find it on the website.�
Oct 12, 2014
Yggdrasill Here in Norway, if you're thinking of the D, the P85D is expected to arrive in Fabruary, and the 60D/85D is expected to arrive in April. The regular S60/S85 have a 4-5 month delivery time and the P85 have a prioritized 4 month delivery time. This is all according to the website.
There's also a speadsheet being maintained on the EV forum here. Here's some of the most recent orders with the date confirmed and the date delivered:
S85, confirmed 2014-05-19, delivered 2014-10-08
P85+, confirmed 2014-06-23, delivered 2014-09-30
S85, confirmed 2014-05-30, delivered 2014-09-30
S85, confirmed 2014-05-16, delivered 2014-09-30
S85, confirmed 2014-05-16, delivered 2014-09-12
The estimates on the website seem fairly accurate.�
Oct 14, 2014
chillong Registrations for Switzerland in September were 32.
Source: http://www.auto-schweiz.ch/fileadmin/3_Statistiken/Autoverkaeufe_nach_Modellen/ModellePW2014.xls�
Oct 14, 2014
mostapasta Thanks chillong!
Looks like Europe will come in right around 1630 (+/- a few) for Q3 '14.�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur I believe UK is too high, Q3, there was 480 cars sold by non-british manufacturers from group of "Others" which includes Tesla, this group also includes Ferrari and Lamborghini, which sold ca. 100 cars a Month last year, so there are roughly ca. 200 left ex these 2, there are probobly some others cars like TATA imports or some exotic cars, so tesla is most likely 120-150 not 255 from your calculation.�
Oct 14, 2014
allz Add 2 for Latvia in June.
I get email from our automotive registry every month just for EV's .
�
Oct 16, 2014
Gerardf First 50 Schiphol Amsterdam Taxi�s have been delivered and are now in use. (50 out of a total of 167 Taxi's).
I would not be surprised if this project will be closely monitored by several other European airports. Not just a clean EV driving in the cities and low costs per KM, but also lots of room for luggage AND four passengers.
Link (in Dutch) Teslataxis zijn vandaag gestart op Schiphol - Groen7
Other link (English) Amsterdam Skift�
Oct 17, 2014
mostapasta @Allz
According to:
Reģistrēto transportlīdzekļu skaits - CSDD - Ceļu satiksmes drošības direkcija
I see 2 sales in June and 1 in February.
Does 2013.g. and 2014.g. mean 2013 model year and 2014 model year?
Thanks for the help, does anyone else see anything I'm missing?�
Oct 28, 2014
maoing Anybody can summarize the EU Q3 sales number? China Q3 imports number just out, it's 1888 (not exactly the sales # but should be close).�
Oct 29, 2014
mostapasta Maoing does that include Hong Kong?
I calculated 1,633 registrations for Europe in Q3 (UK is still an estimate).�
Oct 29, 2014
maoing The China number doesn't include Hongkong, let's assume total 2000 delivery for China/Hongkong and Japan in Q3. So the NA needs to deliver 4100+ model S to meet Q3 guidance.
�
Oct 29, 2014
Ingenieur I think Europe is ca. 150 less as Mostapasta (whose work i value, thank you) just took and adjusted other non UK Imports as proxy for Tesla sales, but this number includes Ferrari and Lamborhini, both sell ca. 1000 a year, plus other exotic brands, so the number for tesla is lower.
On the other hand, i expect HK sales to be 200-300 Units this Q, Japan 37 cars.
Canada is ca. 150 cars.�
Oct 29, 2014
mostapasta Thanks Ingenieur! I agree my UK estimate is probably high, but at this point I don't have any better information to use (I don't know why SMMT won't separate out Tesla, I've emailed them but no luck). Judging from the forums I easily expect a few hundred units to have been sold in HK so that's good it wasn't included in China Q3 imports number that Maoing found.�
Nov 3, 2014
Ingenieur Norway 36 Model S sold in October
Bilsalget i oktober - Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS
Unconfirmed: 27 Model S sold in October in Netherlands, maybe someone from there can look it up.
Supply or demand?�
Nov 3, 2014
Yggdrasill Definitely supply. They've very clearly prioritized US and China delivieries in Q3. The first EU Model S for Q4 was probably made around the 1st of October, and then the shipping takes 2+ weeks.
Rumours are that December will be a significantly busier month.�
Nov 4, 2014
matbl October number for Sweden: 12
As a comparison
Leaf: 31
VW E-up!: 8
BMW i3 (BEV): 3
VW E-golf: 3
Volvo C30 Electric: 3
Renault ZOE: 26
All other pure electric: 0
Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-in Hybrid: 279
Total number of cars sold (just to put it in perspective): 28252
So MS market share: 0.04%�
Nov 4, 2014
RobStark
My assumption was that the vast majority of Norwegians would opt for all wheel drive.
While there may be a few P85D's delivered between Dec and Feb significant numbers of 85D and 60D would not be delivered until March 2015.
US deliveries of P85Ds start in Dec and 85Ds start in Feb.�
Nov 4, 2014
schonelucht That's actually confirmed (down from 32 year-on-year). Here is an authoratitive source : http://www.bovag.nl/data/sitemanagement/media/20141103%20autoverkopen%20oktober%202014.pdf First month of the quarter numbers are always uninteresting in Europe so I won't speculate on supply or demand. December is going to be the break or make month.�
Nov 4, 2014
Yggdrasill You will definitely see deliveries pick up substantially around March, with a slight possibility of a new all time high. But the delivieries in October are orders from June-ish, so the D announcement can't be said to have had much of an effect. However, one possibility is that Tesla has deliberately delayed Norwegian deliveries, in anticipation of the D. Tesla is allowing people to change their order to a D, at no cancellation cost or anything, regardless of how close until delivery their car has gotten. With fewer cars in the pipeline, they wouldn't end up with very many buyerless cars.
It's really har to say just what factors have played a role here, but I think the consensus is that sales will pick up substantially over the next few months.�
Nov 5, 2014
mostapasta October is coming in as one of the weakest months for Europe since Tesla started selling there. They must have cleaned house to meet/exceed their Q3 guidance.
�
Nov 5, 2014
Gerardf You can add 6 Belgium for October. Source : http://febiac.web4pro.com/nl_mon_brand.xls�
Nov 6, 2014
Newb In Germany, registry notes down 17 new Tesla Model S on the roads in October.
http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publikationen/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/FZ/2014_monatlich/FZ11/fz11_2014_10_pdf.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=2
And with regards to prices, Elon mentioned in the recent earnings call yesterday, that Europeans should order as soon as possible since prices increases are on the horizon due to Euro currency situation. Just so you know.�
Nov 12, 2014
Newb ...and as Elon has warned, Tesla takes action: Price adjustments!
(from German Tesla Motors Design Studio, incl. VAT)
S 60, increase from 65.300 Euro to 67.900 Euro (+2.600, +4%)
S 85, increase from 74.900 Euro to 77.300 Euro (+2.400, +3.2%)
P 85D, increase from 98.400 Euro to 101.200 Euro (+2.800, +2.8%)�
Nov 17, 2014
mostapasta Should be an interesting November and December!
(let me know if I'm missing any countries or have incorrect values)�
Nov 17, 2014
GOVA Apparently there are at least 1, if not 2-3 Model S in Poland
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=pl&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fmultibloger.pl%2F2014%2F02%2F19%2Ftesla-poznania-kilka-uwag-wlasciciela%2F&edit-text=�
Nov 17, 2014
mostapasta In Oct '13 there was 1 Model S registered in Poland, but for Oct '14 there was 0. The dates on that article seem old, but it's hard to read from the translation.
Look at:
http://carmarket.com.pl/ranking.php�
Nov 25, 2014
32no It looks to me like Tesla is aggressively expanding in Europe at the moment. Is it because of a high increase in demand from the Model SD?
So what has Tesla done to show aggressive expansion in Europe?
1. Nearly tripled their assembly plant size by moving to a new plant in Tilburg, Netherlands.
2. 10 superchargers added in 7 days
3. 10 superchargers in construction and fast supercharger expansion for the winter
4. Europe has 20 stores coming soon out of the 27 coming soon in the world. Europe also has 13 service centers coming soon out of the 37 coming soon in the world (19 of which are in North America).�
Nov 26, 2014
jhm Nice summary. Good to keep tabs on this. It definitely looks like Tesla is wanting this market to flourish.
I wonder if the European market would benefit from a steady flow of Tesla deliveries throughout the quarter. We're all aware that Tesla tries to time the quarterly deliveries, but it is good for consumers on any continent. I'd be interested in other's thoughts about how the customer experience might improve with steady deliveries.�
Nov 26, 2014
vgrinshpun I am wondering whether accelerated roll-out of SC in Europe has something to do with the ongoing negotiations on charging cooperation with BMW. This is pure speculation on my part, but existence of dense European SC network seem to strenghten negotiating position for the party that owns them...�
Dec 1, 2014
Adm I'd like to make a list with all known websites with Model S registrations in Europe. I've found some here so far, but maybe you can all add the ones missing.
Austria
Belgium (only current month?)
Finland
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland�
Dec 2, 2014
schonelucht Finland is first past the post with 2 registered cars reported for November 2014...�
Dec 2, 2014
LST For Switzerland:
auto-schweiz: Autoverkäufe nach Modellen�
Dec 2, 2014
Gerardf Sweden is reported as 20
Nyregistreringar november 2014
http://www.bilsweden.se/storage/cms/7b8ed482fa3a4ecb909057da05cb304c/212a36ff8cca401c821bdf7837c1643f/xlsx/1/milj%c3%b6bilstoppennov14.xlsx?MediaArchive_ForceDownload=true&PropertyName=Files&ValueIndex=3
For the year total there I see Tesla Model S mentioned as 201 at position 43.. and futher in the list at 125 another Tesla S mention for as one more�
Dec 2, 2014
schonelucht the Netherlands reports 136 model S's during last month.�
Dec 2, 2014
Yggdrasill Norway has 202 Model S registered in November. That's the highest number since June, which for a mid-quarter month is pretty good. Bodes well for December.�
Dec 2, 2014
Gerardf Some interesting developments in Germany :
Merkel Backs Incentives in 1 Million Electric Cars Push - Bloomberg
Maybe the translation, however Fast DC chargers are getting referred to as Super Chargers
�We need a super-charger infrastructure where you can charge 80 percent of the battery in 15 minutes,� said Stefan Bratzel, director of the Center of Automotive Management at the University of Applied Sciences in Bergisch Gladbach, Germany.
And E.on (largest energy supplier in Germany) will sell-off the fossil fuel activities to be able to focus on renewables
German energy giant E.ON to focus on renewables | News | DW.DE | 01.12.2014�
Dec 2, 2014
schonelucht At least in the Netherlands it seems insurers are having a hangover from Tesla claims and increasing premiums by a lot. Centraal Beheer's tailor made 'Tesla-insurance' (premium 750EUR/year) is cancelled and current policy holders notified of new prices in a range betweeen 2000 and 4000EUR/year depending on claim history of the main driver. Another large insurer (Delta Loyd) which generally offered premiums around 900 EUR has followed suit and announced premiums from 1st of January 2015 will increase to at least 1250EUR. The terms of these new contracts are also less favorable than the old ones. To make matters worse it's possible these numbers are before insurance tax (21%).
It seems insurers were banking on the fact that only older customers could afford the car and that it was theft proof. However, with a year of experience from a sizable body of insured cars, the cost to insure a Model S is higher than anticipated. A lot of small damage was claimed to wheels, bumpers, etc and with relatively few certified shops, the price for individuals repair is higher than for a comparable car. To continue to keep the TCO competitive in the Dutch market (consumers are extremely sensitive to this argument here, even at the top end of the market), Tesla will have to keep a very close eye on 3rd party repair costs.
It would be interesting to know how expensive it is to insure a Tesla around Europe to get a good feel if the Dutch market is unique or merely more mature than in other markets and therefore encounters this issue first.�
Dec 2, 2014
Yggdrasill An competitively priced insurance here will generally run between NOK6000/$860/�700 and NOK12000/$1720/�1400 per year. The lower figure is for people who haven't had an accident in 10-15 years, live in the right area (no street parking or the like), are really good at bargain hunting, etc. The higher figure is for people with an okay insurance history, but who might not live in the right area, might be younger, and hasn't chosen the absolute cheapest company, etc. Personally I'd end up somewhere close to the middle of this range.
2000-4000 Euros for insurance sounds to me like they really don't want to insure Teslas. We have some companies like that who will give really crappy prices on cars they don't know much about and don't want to know much about.�
Dec 3, 2014
schonelucht Yes, this particular company does not want to insure Teslas anymore. The issue here is that it is not an insurer that doesn't know about the car, but an insurer that does know about the car (from first hand experience). An insurer that decided enough is enough and outright cancelled all existing policies because the repair costs were to damn high.�
Dec 3, 2014
Robert.Boston I don't think this decision by one insurer should be taken too seriously. U.S. insurers have had more history with the Model S and continue to offer competitive premiums. (U.S. threads, e.g.: Model S Insurance Anyone tried to get an insurance quote for Model S?).
My guess is that Centraal Beheer had some early, bad experience with Model Ss and a senior actuary decided it wasn't worth the risk. There are plenty of choices in the retail insurance market, so I doubt this will have a serious implication for Model S ownership.�
Dec 3, 2014
Yggdrasill Insurance companies here also have lots of experience with Teslas, and you don't see anywhere near �4000/year.
It is true that in the beginning, some insurance companies did underestimate the cost of insuring Teslas, but this has mostly been corrected for by now. Some Tesla owners have experienced a 1000-2000 NOK price increase when renewing the insurance for another year. Here's an article from May: Google Translate�
Dec 3, 2014
Gerardf Austria : Nov = 9.
http://www.statistik.at/web_de/static/pkw_und_lkw_kl._n1_neuzulassungen_1._bis_30._november_2014_nach_marken_roh_035718.pdf�
Dec 3, 2014
mostapasta Updated November numbers:
�
Dec 7, 2014
Ingenieur 57 cars in Germany acc. to KBA�
Dec 8, 2014
Gerardf France 22 (for a 2014 total up to now of 242)
Chiffres des ventes immatriculations de voitures électriques en France�
Dec 8, 2014
mostapasta Per a request, here is what I have for 2014 YTD (I'm missing just a few for November).
�
Dec 14, 2014
Gerasimental Does anyone know what became of Merkel's plan to cover up to 90% of the cost of businesses' fleet costs?
Germany Expected to Approve Tax Incentives for Electric Cars
All the news I read afterwards just focused on planning to extent charging infrastructure and giving ev owners special privileges.�
Dec 14, 2014
chillong for Switzerland (http://www.auto-schweiz.ch/fileadmin/3_Statistiken/Autoverkaeufe_nach_Modellen/ModellePW2014.xls), the November number is 33.�
Dec 16, 2014
JEU The Model S is now sold with a $15.000 "discount" in Norway compared to the US-price. This is due to the strong USD and weak NOK (Norwegian krone, mostly due low oilprice)
Since 10th october the NOK has lost 15% to USD, Tesla has not updated the prices. Therefore I ordered a S85D today.. Many others on the norwegian forum is doing the same thing.. I guess this will mean that Tesla will sell a bunch of cars with little or no proffit next year if the currency rates stay at this level�
Dec 16, 2014
virtuesoft Tesla must have a USDNOK hedge in place. I know they've said in the past that they do not hedge currencies but it just doesn't make sense that the prices have been adjusted everywhere apart from Norway. There is no way they would leave the price the same and take a loss on each car sold to Norway.�
Dec 16, 2014
Ingenieur Im not sure about other eu but german prices rose by 3-4 % but euro fell more like 12-13% this year, maybe some of that is covered by falling prices fro eu suppliers�
Dec 16, 2014
RobStark Or Tesla could keep their Krone profits in Norway for a while to expand superchargers,stores, and service centers.�
Dec 16, 2014
Ingenieur It has no impact on income statment if they transfer money or not, the sales/profits in NOK are stated in Dollars�
Dec 16, 2014
32no How is it a $15,000 discount?
The Model S50 is currently 466,200 krone which is $78,410. US price is $71,070, add a 20% VAT to get $85,284 which is only $6875 more than what the current price is...
Even if you take the P85D which is $105,670 in the US, it costs 683,000 krone which is $114,735. A 20% VAT on the US price is $126,804, which is only $12,069 more than the current price.�
Dec 16, 2014
RobStark
But they don't have to buy dollars with krone. When they buy Norwegian assets they effectively get the same discount that Norwegian Model S buyers are getting.�
Dec 16, 2014
Ingenieur But it is not reflected in the income statement, their Norwegian SGAA are obviously lower due to lower currency, but its not much i assume. So unless they find a way to source cheaper stuff from norway, the impact is negative.
Basicly if they sell something for 100 Kroner, and kroner is 20% lower, they effectively sell it for 80. Now they have 5 Kroner of SGAA costs in Norway, its just 4 now, but most likely not nearly enough to make up for lost revenues/profits. Maybe we should start a thread and check out how the EU prices changed last few months. I dont quite understand it�
Dec 16, 2014
RobStark Yes, Tesla gets the raw end of the deal.
But it might be largely mitigated. Not just current operation cost. But expansion.
Unlike traditional companies that have saturated most markets, Tesla needs to expand everywhere. Aggressively.
Perhaps, the net result is better than paying for hedges.�
Dec 16, 2014
Ingenieur I dont think the growth in Norway will make much difference, the Norwegian market is most likely the most saturated for tesla.
If you are looking for a real white Swan, look at Yen falling, if the contractual prices are in Yen, lets say there 15k$ batteries worth in average vehicle (before packaging costs), yen rising from 100 to 120 means 3k $ cost reduction. So this may make up all of the lost profits in Europe - Norway, nobody seems to talk about it, all things equal, this would increase gross margin by 3%�
Dec 16, 2014
JEU At the other side of the scale a well equiped P85D without winther tires cost in Norway 883.000NOK = $117.700. The same spec in USD is $136000. So the difference is $18300 on a car like that. All prices without VAT and other fees. Shipping to Norway is also a significant cost..
The Model S is still selling very good in Norway after they lanched AWD, Norway has a lot of hills and snow, so AWD is very popular..�
Dec 17, 2014
matbl Ehm, what?
683000 NOK is with today's exchange rate ~90100 USD.
Your calculation seems to be based on a NOK/USD exchange rate of 5.95 which hasn't happened since early June. Current rate is about 7.58.�
Dec 17, 2014
Yggdrasill I don't think the money can realistically be used for expansion. If Tesla sells 4000 Model S/X in Norway in 2015, that's about 2.5-3 billion NOK, or 329-395 million USD (415-500 million USD a few months ago). How many superchargers would that pay for? How many service centers?
It may be that the effects can be mitigated to some extent with various tactics, but I think it's obvious that there will be a loss of revenue, unless Tesla increses the pricing. Increasing the pricing is not ideal, however, because the pricing is already right at the top of what very many people can afford. A 20% increase in price could halve sales.�
Dec 17, 2014
32no Yeah you're right. That's a $15,000 discount on the P85D before any other costs (including VAT)... That is pretty extreme, I hope Tesla does something about it...�
Dec 17, 2014
Robert.Boston You can't lose money on every sale but make it up in volume....�
Dec 17, 2014
Martini Does Tesla have a predictable pattern for timing of international price adjustments due to currency movements? That is, do they adjust quarterly or on any kind of schedule?�
Dec 17, 2014
Yggdrasill Agree. But it isn't clear if Tesla is losing money at current prices in Norway. I hope that Tesla has managed to hedge against currency fluctuations to a sufficient degree.
If the pricing is adjusted up by 20%, even I would need to closely consider whether I would still buy a Model X. I might have to wait until a Model 3 crossover is for sale. (The only thing that might save me in the event of a 20% price hike is that I've hedged against the currency fluctuations by owning a significant amount of TSLA stock. But I'd need TSLA to be over 250 USD.)�
Dec 17, 2014
matbl No. My guess is that they do it when currency contracts expire. And no company details their currency contracts...�
Dec 17, 2014
Yggdrasill And there the prices were adjusted. Looks like about 7-9%. An S60 now costs 501,000 NOK, up from 466,200 NOK. A P85D now costs 744,000 NOK, up from 683,000 NOK.
The pricing is still lower than the US, so there might be additional price increases later.�
Dec 18, 2014
schonelucht Quite a big increase indeed. What is the current situation on VAT exemption for electric vehicles and what is the outlook for 2015/2016?�
Dec 18, 2014
Yggdrasill Well, the official position is that the govenment has agreed to not touch the VAT and purchase tax exemption until there are at least 50,000 EVs (or before 2017, which ever happens first). We'll reach 50,000 EVs spring/summer 2015.
What happens after we reach 50,000 EVs can be discussed at great length, but to keep it short; nothing happens immediately, everything remains just as it is now. But the government will definitely start to discuss the future of the incentives, and then we'll see what they conclude towards the end of next year, probably. Personally, I don't think that we'll see any significant changes until 2017 or later, but it is definitely linked to the success of the EVs. If 30-40-50% of cars sold in 2015 are electric, the phase out if the incentives will definitely start sooner rather than later. But if we're still in the 10-20% towards the end of 2015, they might be extended for several more years.
The weak NOK may work to keep the incentives around for longer, as it might keep EV sales lower.�
Dec 19, 2014
32no Norway prices:
German prices (remember that any premium less than 19% is a discount because Germany has a 19% VAT):
�
Jan 1, 2015
Adm Numbers in from the Netherlands: 352 for december, 1465 for 2014
http://www.dealersupportnet.nl/static/downloadcenter/2015/01/merken-pc-ytm-12-2014.pdf�
Jan 1, 2015
RobStark
I think that is the best month of the year? Yearly total up 22% over last too.�
Jan 1, 2015
maoing That's good sign. Basically I expect record quater for all the markets (mayb except Norway) for the Q4 because TM is supposed to pump the production rate by at least 60% in the past quarter. Let's monitor the Europe/Asia data in coming weeks.
Btw, a side question to European folks. Do you see year end delivery push in Europe? My expectation is NO because I assume all vechicles out of the factory should had been shipped to Europe in Oct./Nov., so unlike NA market, Europe market should be able to handle all Q4 deliveries ahead of the quarter end. But I could be wrong.
�
Jan 2, 2015
schonelucht How do you mean up 22%? Remember 2013 was only 6 months for Tesla delivery in Europe, so it's actually a decrease, entirely the result of regulatory changes that reduced tax benefits for owning full electric cars. A more stable picture includes the whole of Europe. It is reasonable to project 8500+-250 cars for 2014. This compares to 3893 cars in 6 months in 2013 or up roughly 10% on a full y-on-y basis.
As to the feel of a delivery push : yes, this can easily be seen by anyone passing Tilburg. There were way more cars there in December than usual, although things aren't as hectic as in the states I assume. Another 'feel' is that there won't be (comparatively) as many original enthousiasts who will switch to a D model as there were in the US. Interest on the Dutch board is certainly lower. Again, going by feel, I think Europeans are more wowed by top speeds rather than incredible acceleration in performance cars. In personal conversation, when someone is talking about a 'fast car' it's always about how fast you've driven it on the autobahn, not how fast you peeled it at the red lights. Also, the slightly larger range from the dual motors isn't a big bonus here since distances are way shorter and supercharger density higher. However, this may not be true for Norway where AWD may make more of an impact.
With a rising dollar, comparatively little interest in the D model and certainly no model X deliveries, I expect sales in Europe for 2015 (edited : was 2016) to be down in the countries where Tesla has reasonable (sales supporting) infrastructure build out already (mainly Benelux, Germany, Switzerland and Norway) and up in countries where it is still setting up the infrastructure (mainly France, UK and central-east Europe) All in all, it is going to be a wash with 8500 new Tesla model S (all varieties) hitting the road during 2015 (edited : was 2016).�
Jan 2, 2015
Ingenieur The number for Sweden is 64, and Austria 24. Both are very high.
Looks like this Month may see 1200 cars sold, so we will be at ca 2200 for Q4 or 400 more then last quarter, but lets wait until all data is in.
I wonder if the Netherland number includes another shipment for Schiphol Airport? When i used the tesla taxi in november, i talked to the driver and he told there will be few hundered more cars.�
Jan 2, 2015
Johann Koeber What do you think for 2015?
- - - Updated - - -
What do you think for 2015?�
Jan 2, 2015
schonelucht Sorry. I meant 2015 where I mentioned 2016. My bad.�
Jan 2, 2015
Adm Don't forget 2013 was the year they worked to finish the waiting list that had been building up for 4 years. I think the number for 2014 will be the reference number for the future in Europe.�
Jan 2, 2015
RobStark Yearly totals are yearly totals. And yes, 2013 had pent up demand.
RWD Model S with "autobahn tuning" had a top speed of 130 mph correct? P85D will have a top speed of 155 mph.
The D will have longer range at 155 mph too.
And don't most F segment cars in the "Blue Banana" get sold with AWD for snow and rain capability if not for improved 0-60 times?
�
Jan 2, 2015
schonelucht Well, are yearly totals yearly totals, or are we going into a more detailed analysis to make comparisons over time more honest?
Anyways, don't forget 2014 profited from pent up demand as well with the incredible number of deliveries in Norway of March that year. This is fairly evident from looking at the quarterly European deliveries :
Q3 2013 1224
Q4 2013 2669
Q1 2014 3073
Q2 2014 2327
Q3 2014 1370
Q4 2014 1800-2000
Q1'14 and before clearly are higher due to working through the backlog, Q3'14 was a supply issue (factory retooling taking longer then predicted), that leaves us with Q2'14 and Q4'14 as regular quarters. If European demand was growing at the same rate as US demand we should have seen an enormous increase in the estimated delivery times. It's been on average between 2 and 4 months. Variations had more to do with timing wrt end of quarter shipments than anything else. I have a really hard time to see a trending increase in the European numbers. I am still feeling confident about estimating the market between 8000 and 9000 cars in Europe for the next year.
True, it's better. But for someone who values acceleration foremost, the P85D offers a unique performance. For someone who values top speed, the P85D merely brings it in line with the rest of the manufacturers. It will indeed be interesting to see how far the P85D will go at top speed. If that's significantly longer than today, it may start to change perceptions.
Added security might indeed be an argument.�
Jan 2, 2015
maoing Wait. We all know 2013 Q4 has pent up demand but production rate has almost doubled from 2013 Q4 to 2014 Q4, so it's not good at all to see declined delivery number if it holds ture. Seriously!
Edit: I'm not saying the global demand has trouble at this point, but it hints
1) The Europe demand might be a "real" issue even with BIG investment on Europe stores/SCs and super charger networks, also the recent stong dollar doesn't help;
2) The production rate in Oct./Nov. was still under performed, so not enough cars can be shipped to Europe. Remember Elon didn't answer the production rate question in 11/06 conference call, so he might be not confident for the production rate until that time.
�
Jan 2, 2015
Ingenieur The european sales are not decreasing, its flat/slightly rising.
The 2 biggest differences are Norway sales and UK Launch, UK added 50-100 monthly demand, even at launch.
Norway sales were unsustainable and thus decreased to 500-700/Quarter, if Norway was the size of US (and bought as many cars per 1000 Population), it would be like selling 40-60k per Quarter.
So EU sales are stable but Norway sales ca. 2000 less, UK 500 More, other 10-20% more, so all in all i expect ca. 8000-8500 sold in Europe in 2015,slightly down vs 2014 (i expect ca. 9400 in 2014 or 2100-2200 Q4 2014)
The demand must come from China�
Jan 2, 2015
maoing Do other European folks agree the demand is flat/slightly rising? Any reason to explain in more details? We know Tesla is investing BIG in Europe in terms of stores/SCs and super chargers. As investor, we do expect reasonable ROI. If TM invested such in China in 2014, then I guess the order number must have well exceeded 10K.
�
Jan 2, 2015
perdru Norway registrations totalled 4042 Model S in 2014 ( + 103.5 % from 2013, which were 1986 cars ).�
Jan 2, 2015
Ingenieur So 269 in December, 515 in Q4
So far we have 715 for Netherlands, Norway, Austria and Sweden, on track to reach 1200 for December and ca. 2000-2100 for Q4�
Jan 2, 2015
Yggdrasill The numbers are actually 267 for December and 4040 for the year, according to the official site. Bilsalget i desember - Opplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS (Two Roadsters have been registered earlier this year, so they might be the cause of the discrepancy.)
I wouldn't be too pessimistic about Norway, though. There is definitely a lot of people who are waiting for AWD. My guess for sales in Norway in 2015 would be around 3500.�
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