Thứ Bảy, 5 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 15

  • Nov 3, 2015
    Benz
  • Nov 3, 2015
    allz
    Latvia:
    September - 0
    October - 1
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    schonelucht
    France 56. Compares with 53 for July. At current trend we should expect between 1000 and 1200 deliveries for October in Europe.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I personally have heard of two older model S's being exported from the Netherlands to Denmark last month. Do we know if the Danish new registration numbers include these cars or not? Normally I'd expect this kind of export to get lost in the noise but it might be significant enough for Denmark in the last quarter of this year to impact our estimate on new car deliveries by Tesla. Does anyone have an idea how to account for this?
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    Newb
    Well, technically every car has to be registered for the first time somewhere in Europe. If the cars you have mentioned had been registered in the Netherlands before, they are considered "used" and no longer "brand-new". If the cars were just standing on the lot and got then exported to Denmark, I suppose they'll be getting their first registration in Denmark and thereby appear in the official Danish statistics.

    Austria October: 36 (+1800% yoy) (no typo)

    - - - Updated - - -

    and this is +2800% yoy for France. :)
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    Fanatic
    There has to be some problems in Spain. Supercharger permits have been slow. Elon said they would have the route to madrid and almost all spain covered by 2015, and he said that in 2014. No it seems that it will be next year, I doubt they will manage to cover it in 2 months.
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    schonelucht
    Are we sure only never-registered cars are counted in those statistics for Denmark? For example, in the Netherlands the numbers do include used cars from abroad since it's just the number of new Dutch registration plates issued for a certain brand.

    I understand we desperately need some positive news but I think we are deluding ourselves with y-o-y growth numbers, especially for small markets like France and Austria that only recently matured. As in investor, I am interested in past growth performance in so far it will allow me to estimate what future growth is going to be. For markets like Norway, California or Norway y-o-y numbers are therefore meaningful, but not so for Austria or France. For the latter I much prefer to use q-o-q growth numbers.
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    Newb
    Nope, it's not about good news or a delusion. It's simple auto industry 101. Q-o-q comparisons don't matter really. Just check the standard pattern of quartely Tesla sales/deliveries in Europe, for instance. Q3 has always been the lowest and Q4 the highest. You see similar patterns with other auto companies which dispatch their orders and deliver in certain patterns throughout the year. What really matters, is the y-o-y growth rate within the quarter. Of course, the percentages of growth in smaller and/or developing markets are much bigger than in larger or saturated markets but keeping the sizes in mind, the percentages are quite helpful to illustrate the past growth in sales.

    I mean, if you step back and evaluate your stance again, you can't seriously think y-o-y growth doesn't matter. First, it makes a whole lot of a difference from an investor's standpoint if you sell just 2 cars in October of a year (see pattern argument above) or 56 cars in the same month one year later. Second, you'd probably be the first moaning if y-o-y sales numbers were declining because y-o-y growth (and the speed of growth) does matter a lot to Tesla investors. It's an important indicator of expansion into new / within small markets.

    Furthermore, you might well remember but some other readers might have forgotten where we were just one year ago with regards to sales in Europe. That's again an important argument for reminding us of the past year.

    Where I'd agree, is that y-o-y comparisons of monthly deliveries are less interesting than y-o-y comparisons of the same quarter. Looking forward to compara Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. In the end, this is what matters the most if you're looking for meeting the 50-55k guidance.
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    SebastianR
    Denmark is 113 for October.
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    schonelucht
    I don't and I hope that's clear from what I wrote. It just doesn't matter for France (and Austria) this particular quarter.
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    Yggdrasill
  • Nov 3, 2015
    Drax7
    Performance improves and horsepower declines , this is beyond offensive
    Not sure humans are wired to overcome this
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    Fanatic
    1686 Electric car registration in Germany, not only Model S....
    I expect roughly 170, model s
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    Newb
    ...and that's an all-time record month, too. Plug-in hybrids are counted in a separate section, though. The PHEV figure is 1,113 for October (equally all-time record). More details (and Model S registration numbers) should be released by the end of the week.
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  • Nov 3, 2015
    Auzie
    Imho both points of view have merit and are not mutually exclusive.

    I agree with schonelucht that absolute numbers in some new markets are quite small, thus diminishing the relevance of stratospheric y-o-y growth in these markets.

    I also agree with Newb that large y-o-y growth is informative, regardless of the small absolute number of sales in some markets.

    As the absolute number of sales grows in some markets, the relative y-o-y growth number will drop from stratospheric % to more earthly bound %

    As long as all these numbers are going up, we'll all be happy
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  • Nov 4, 2015
    Newb
    nice. you were quite right with your estimate.

    I've checked the number of new registrations in Germany in October and based on the table of "main country of origin" I calculated an estimate of Model S registrations there. It's only Jeep, Chevrolet and Cadillac which sell U.S. cars apart from Tesla. So my estimate is that there were around 125-145 new Model S registered in October. But, we'll have a definite number by the end of the week.

    EDIT: thanks hobbes. Let me explain how you can estimate the Model S registration numbers in Germany a few days earlier (we don't have to enter such numbers in the wiki, just want to share how I've done it). The official administration KBA has a three-step-process to release monthly registrations numbers. 1. During the first three days of a given month, you get the press release with information on total EVs and PHEVs registered. Under "diagrams" you find registrations of cars from selected brands (Tesla should be in this table from January on, thus we'll be much quicker with posting official numbers next year). 2. KBA regularly releases another piece of information on registrations 1-3 days after that, which they call "Neuzulassungsbarometer". Here you can find a table with number of cars registered by country of origin. 3. Then, a couple of days later, you get the full picture with detailed statistics on every brand and every model. | Now, it's possible to estimate Model S reg numbers by employing information from step 1 and 2. First, you add numbers of Chevrolet and Jeep from step 1 and subtract that sum from the sum of cars from the U.S. (from step 2). Subtract another 40-80 cars for Cadillac and other U.S. cars and you have your quite close estimate of Model S registrations for October. Frankly, you just win a few days, but in the news world this is a huge advantage.
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  • Nov 4, 2015
    hobbes
    Was just checking the google sheet - lots of new numbers, great. But one thing I would like to say: There have been estimates coming in with no link to how they were made. That is of no value. One even didn�t have a log entry in addition, removed that one, the other one just had a link which had nothing to do with the estimate, changed that link. Please make estimates for countries that we don�t get numbers for or where we have very good inofficial numbers (think of Norway) and explain your estimate in a post and link it, but otherwise, I�d like it better to wait a few days and have good data than speculation with no info how it was made up. Thanks.
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  • Nov 5, 2015
    Newb
    hobbes, thanks again for your management of the wiki. I've added an explanation in my post above which is linked to the estimate for Germany. But I'm fine with just posting that estimate in the thread and wait for the final numbers to enter those in the wiki.

    EDIT: Numbers are out. 121 in October. Not fantastic, but not bad either, given there were only 17 new registrations in October 2014.
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  • Nov 7, 2015
    hobbes

    THX for your and everyone else�s help, too.

    Likely with the so-so European numbers this month it will be just like last quarter, when EU was 600 down over Q2 but worlwide was flat, likely just more cars going to China instead. Also, this Q I expect more of a end of quarter push again.

    Update from MrBacardi as of today: 24 in Norway in the first week of Oct, in line with last month when there were 21 at this point.
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  • Nov 7, 2015
    mmd
    Have the EV incentives ended or decreased in Norway? The sales have slowed down quite a bit (Q1 1532, Q2 1142, Q3 569). So far, Q4 is also looking similar to Q3.
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  • Nov 7, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Nope, but the price of oil has crashed and most of Norway's GDP and many people's income is directly or indirectly dependent on oil. How is that for a paradox? Oil gets cheaper, Tesla sales decrease because people who make money on oil can't buy Teslas?

    PS: Plus, as far as we know Tesla has been prioritizing China deliveries a little bit last quarter.
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    You're close, but not quite right. The falling Tesla sales is not because people working in the oil industry have less income and can't afford Teslas. This factor is fairly irrelevant. What's happened is:

    1. The price of oil dropped.
    2. This means lower activity in the oil industry, as oil fields with a break even price of more than 50 USD/bbl are all shelved. (This is most of the oil fields discovered in recent years.)
    3. To adjust for lower activity, oil-related companies start firing people. Already 25k people have lost their jobs, and it's been projected that maybe as many as 100-200k people will lose their jobs before this is over. This is a lot in Norway; we are only around 5 million people, and 330k people have jobs related to the oil. 100k lost jobs here is equivalent to a loss of 6.4 million jobs in the US, relative to the size of the population.
    4. To increase activity in other parts of the economy, the government drops the interest rate. You can compare projections from october 2014 to current projections.
    5. This means it's less attractive to keep money in NOK, so financial institutions and countries reduce their exposure to the NOK.
    6. This means the NOK weakens against the USD and EUR. Since October 2014 the USD/NOK exchange rate has gone from 6.5 to 8.6.
    7. This means that when Tesla keeps the pricing unchanged in USD, a 100k USD Model S goes from costing 650k NOK in October 2014 to 860k NOK today, or an increase of 32%.

    The last point is not entirely true, though. Tesla has chosen to reduce the profit margin in Norway, to get higher sales, so while there has been a price hike, it's not quite 32% since October 2014. And one thing to remember is that in Norway, most Teslas have been sold to the middle class. TCO-wise, a Model S hasn't been that far away from a high end VW Passat. Even a slight increase in price is enough to push the Model S out of reach for the middle class. The 70D was a godsend in this regard - it's a very attractive car for Norway, we love AWD, and the range isn't that much worse than the S85. Without the 70D, things would have been much worse.
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    I said "directly or indirectly dependent on oil". Yes, 25k people is quite a lot, but the indirect effect ripples through the economy in the fashion you detailed. Not disagreeing, I just kind of over simplified - but thanks for adding in details! :)
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The thing is, for almost everyone, income is pretty much the same as before, in NOK. Even those who have been fired have basically the same income as before, only from unemployment benefits instead (for up to 2 years). The income hasn't been affected measurably, the exchange rate has. But yes, your post wasn't far off the mark.
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    bonaire

    Well, why doesn't Tesla send in the CPO cars from the USA into Norway to sell as used? There is an incentive there to not tax used EV imports and would sell for less than new. Do you know the CPO profile in Norway that may describe the sales profiles of New versus Used (if any) and have Tesla stores listed many CPO from in-country trade-ins when the D models came out?

    Oil is an energy source - and a source of wealth for some. But it is also a tax on the common man to live a daily, productive life. The higher the price of oil, the more wealth transfer from the population to the wealthy who mine (drill) and control oil distribution. The tax has been lowered and many common folks out there feel that they are relieved in the price drop. I am talking outside the heavy tax burden areas like Europe. Many USA consumers see cheap gas and think "party time" and their disposable income turns into new truck sales, more spending and well, more parties. The real solution is for people to squirrel (put away) away that money for later use when oil available slows down again and the per-barrel price ramps up again. Oil will run out some day and it will not be taken very well by the world consumers. This is the time to use oil to send engineers into battery labs and transmission companies to make better batteries and transmissions for cutting down the energy-use per mile of EVs even further so that the transition to EVs in later decades goes smoothly and has less cost.

    Also - I am a big advocate of pulling out charging equipment from cars and going to a more commonplace DC FC solution. Today, the J-1772 solution offers an add-on cost for every EV built due to the AC-DC charge-inverter on every car. Take that out of cars and go fully networked DC-FC overall and you lower costs for every car. I believe Tesla may need to do that for Model 3 in order to cut individual car costs. Just sell a home DC EVSE (not FC but perhaps 40A) and charge at home on DC and on the road on DC (superchargers and CHAdeMO).

    Think about the lower-paid workers. Farm hands. What do they do when costs go up (gas for example)? They car-pool in cheap used cars. The common worker hasn't gone to car-pooling just yet in the USA but I suspect the more car-pooling we start to see, the more oil is impacting everyone. The fact that everyone must drive their own car is one of our biggest problems - and a source of our greatest joys in the USA. The freedom we all want is also one of the worst things for the planet in terms of sustainability. Going from oil use in a single-driver car to electricity use in a single-driver car really is not a full solution to sustainability... But it is a start.
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I'm not entirely sure what information you are looking for, but I have some comments:

    - Sending CPO cars from the US to the EU isn't entirely unproblematic. For one thing, the charge port is different, and so is the charger. And the UMC. And the US versions have a different airbag setup. (No knee airbags in Europe.) I'm sure there are other differences that complicates things.
    - I don't know what tax incentive for used EVs you're referring to. In Norway, new EVs have zero tax and used EVs have zero tax.
    - There aren't very many CPOs being sold through Tesla. Currently there's one P85 on the site, and that's it. But I know they are continually selling demo cars as well as customer cars where the buyer backed out, before they end up on the site. There were hundreds of customer cars where the buyer backed out at the launch of the D. These were all sold months ago, before the CPO site was operational.
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    jkirkebo
    US cars have the wrong charging port, no 3-phase chargers, wrong rear lights etc. It would be quite time-consuming to rebuild them to EU-spec.
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    electracity
    Doesn't work for destination charging or unplanned charging. Longer range EVs built this decade work in an environment of inadequate charging resources. Many Leaf owners today in the U.S. charge off 110v in their garage. These people don't even want/need to pay to instal 220v, much less DC.
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  • Nov 8, 2015
    RobStark
    The current LEAF is an adequate solution for ~24k people per year in a market of ~4M new small and midsize sedans sold every year in the USA.
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  • Nov 10, 2015
    abasile
    Today's shorter-range EVs do have their issues vis���vis public perception and cost, but in terms of utility, the LEAF can work quite well for a great many multi-car families, as can the Volt, i3, 500e, etc. Many, many owners of these cars, and even some Model S owners, do just fine charging at 120 V every night. One of the selling points of an EV is that electricity is everywhere. The real key to lowering costs is the battery packs.

    Like others, I'm thinking the Model 3 may end up being relatively more successful in Europe than in North America due to Europe's higher fuel costs. Mid-range consumers are of course more price sensitive, and most people don't care enough about the environment to change their habits much. That seems to be evidenced by the fact that EVs still don't comprise more than ~25% of new car sales in Norway, even with the generous incentives there. What will it take to get the other 75% to start buying EVs? Or, in California, the other 90-95%?
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  • Nov 10, 2015
    RobStark
    The utility of short range EVs are irrelevant towards impact on the environment, health, a nations trade balance etc if people don't buy them.

    Berating people to buy "utilitarian" short range EVs is an obvious failure even with generous incentives.
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  • Nov 10, 2015
    abasile
    Up to this point, the cumulative contribution of all EVs, including Tesla vehicles, toward reducing pollution is hardly noticeable. But today's EV buyers, of all stripes, are helping to set a trend in the right direction.

    Agreed. So the question is, what will it take? Tesla's approach is making EVs "compelling" is clearly part of the solution. Is ~200 miles of range, plus the SuperCharger network, enough to dramatically expand the addressable market? I think so, but then again, I expected many more people to jump on board with the ~80 mile LEAF, at least until it become clear that first generation LEAF batteries weren't tolerating heat well. The Model 3 should be a very good test case. Hopefully it'll turn the tide toward mass adoption. In Europe, its smaller size should certainly help.
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  • Nov 10, 2015
    RobStark
    In addition to Model 3 a great test case will also be LEAF at 84 ,107, ~130 and top trim 2018 model year ~210 mile range.

    By 2018 we should also be able to see trends between styling Unique BEVs vs Conventional BEVs.

    Personally I see a big jump at 150 mile,200, 300, and finally 400 being required for the late majority.

    Since the economics of charging and specifically home charging practically prevent a charging station at every corner 30%-50% of the population will not feel comfortable getting rid of their last ice until 400 EPA mile range reaches consumers at the average price of a new car.
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    Fanatic
    120 cars increase in Switzerland during October. Added data to wiki
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    electracity
    Any purchase incentives in Switzerland?
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    Alfred
    Nothing comparable to Holland or Norway:
    Some cantons offer a lower annual tax (called Verkehrsabgabe in Zurich). In Zurich e.g. purely electric vehicles pay no such annual Verkehrsabgabe at all. The amount of a "Verkehrsabgabe" varies with engine size, weight, CO2 emissions etc. A car with a 3000 ccm engine, 1800 Kg and no rebates for CO2 etc. would pay 488 Fr./year. Each canton is different.

    So far there is no special charge on mileage that would match the high taxes on fuel. So to drive with electricity is a lot cheaper than gasoline or gasoil. Some insurance companies offer favorable rates for electric cars. One reason given was that electric car drivers are more careful than average.
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    hobbes
    Very strange... Just found this: Google �bersetzer

    Supposedly 2500 luxury electric cars were registered in Denmark before the tax increase in January 2016 according to Denmark�s tax minister, and they accuse Tesla of having done this to avoid taxation... Sounds like a cheap thriller. Danmark has had less then 1000 registrations so far this year, so this number sounds like it is out of proportion. And I cannot imagine anyone doing this would believe noone would notice! Also, would be totally untypical to build stock cars not specifically build for a customer. Maybe another company acting as a reseller? Wonder how this looks from a legal point of view - any Danish lawyers with a tax background around ;)?!

    --- Update ---

    Google Translate

    Tesla says they order license plates in advance according to estimated sales... Wonder what this means for Q4 sales in DK!

    Source of both links is the national Danish broadcasting corporation DR (broadcaster) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    mmd
    This could be big if true. As for Tesla building for inventory, it is not totally surprising. Tesla's inventory of finished goods has increased considerably in the last few quarters. The statement "Tesla says they order license plates in advance according to estimated sales" seems odd. Isn't the license plate issued for a specific car? Then, wouldn't that mean Tesla produced the car in expectation of a sale, and not after an actual order/sale?
    And why should Tesla sell via resellers, if they have been fighting so hard everywhere to sell direct? Aren't there stores and service centers in Denmark?
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    electracity
    Tesla would not pay for 2500 registrations without running it by a lawyer. That is also 5% of 2015 production. A big deal.
    Does not seem likely to me.
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    RobStark
    The reseller the Danish minister is referring to is Tesla.

    Tesla registers the car new under Tesla's name. That is the first sale. Then Tesla sells again to retail customer. Tesla becoming a "reseller."
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    gigglehertz
    Bjorn Nyland did a video a month ago in which he talked about Danish sales being very high. There is a couple there who at the time had 58 referrals. I think the sales were legitimate buyers trying to beat the tax deadline.

    Tesla referral program update October - YouTube
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    mmd
    The minister says, it is illegal to hoard cars for resale later. But Tesla head in Denmark seems to say, they are registering plates years in advance. We will know by end of Q4 how this evolves.

    "However, according to communications manager for Tesla Nordic, Esben Pedersen, it is because a mixture of rising sales in Denmark in the past month - and simple practice.

    - What I have been aware of is that there has been someone in our headquarters, sitting and ordering number plates for all markets. He orders them years ahead in all markets, because it is an effective way to do it.

    According Esben Pedersen has this person was recorded, that the sale of Teslaer has increased since the tax increase was announced.

    -It Is, realistically, we will within the next year are going to sell 2,500 cars. The person has so ordered plates for these vehicles."
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    Cobos
    In Norway all car dealers get batches of number plates. So they sell cars with running numbers i.e. EL12345, EL12346 etc. Then they connect the VIN to the number plate as they process the sale directly in the DMVs system.

    Cobos
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Yes, you need at least the VIN to register the car, and I would think the same is true in Denmark. I don't know if they have VINs a year in advance.
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  • Nov 11, 2015
    mmd
    So, as soon as Tesla assigns VIN to a car, which could be as early as order confirmation for built-to-order cars, Tesla can apply for tax free registration in Denmark. And then, it could be 2-3 months to deliver, even in 2016. But the car will still enjoy the 2015 registration rate. Does this sound right?

    It's also possible that something is lost in Google translation, or the Denmark Tesla spokesperson doesn't know all the details. Applying for registration years in advance when registration fee is climbing so fast year over year would defeat the purpose of the fee raise. EV manufacturers could reserve VINs for Denmark for many years, and apply for plates now in droves. Surprised, that the Danish government didn't quite consider this situation :)

    (Edited: Found some link with good information on Danish car registration process.
    Buying & Selling a Car in Denmark - AngloINFO Copenhagen, in Metropolitan Copenhagen (Denmark) )


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  • Nov 12, 2015
    WarpedOne
    Surprised?
    Surprised an X government didn't consider some situation?
    Really?
    Surprised?
    Government is by definition the worst planner conceivable. And they always do even worse when planning tax raises. Always and everywhere.
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    hobbes
    Yeah. After thinking about it for a while, that�s my take on the situation (educated guesses):

    - Tesla is NOT building cars to hoard and sell later which are not designed specifically for a customer (would be totally out of line with what they usually do) - only built-to-order

    - Demand has drastically increased due to tax increase next year, they�ll be trying to deliver as much as possible this year

    - They most likely start the registration process when they assign VINs or some other fixed point in the production process to make sure no time is wasted before delivery when the car arrives at its destination (especially in this situation with likely end-of-quarter rush

    - Registering cars years ahead of actual production doesn�t make much sense to me; I guess the statement to that end is supposed to disguise the jump in registrations in the next months (pure speculation)

    From my point of view that is the first time we got an (untentional) pre-announcement of registrations by an official authority :)! Only not quite clear for what timeframe. And there will be some free press for Tesla, now and when masses of Model S are delivered - *might* be like the best months in Norway.
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    Benz
    In The Netherlands some cars that have arrived at a VW-dealership in December do get a license-plate and are registered that same year, though the sale happens in the new year. That's what I have heard.
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    SebastianR
    My take on this one (and I'm not a lawyer) is:

    - Tesla sold a ton of cars in DK. A friend of mine picked up the car and the DS said they sold approx. 2000 cars in one day (after the changes were announced).

    - You can't get the license plate / tax situation done without an actual car.

    - There was a statement to TV2 that said: "Our license plate orders are made centrally. [...] . A license plate does not represent a sale of a car before it is put on a car. The order of 2,500 license plates have not taken into account the possible changes in car taxes, but merely reflects an optimistic forecast of sales going forward".

    So with all this together, I assume that Tesla just tries to delivery however many cars the humanly can deliver before the year end. And as a shareholder, I'm quite happy that they make sure that "having a plate or not" will hopefully not be the limiting factor for Tesla sales in Q4.

    Of course, the news of "hoarding license plates" (what ever that should accomplish?!?) is better for the news cycle than "record sales for Tesla in Q4"
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    hobbes
    Wow. The plot thickens... "Sold" meaning ordered? Can you put an approximate time tag on that? Would it be in line with a Nov/Dec delivery?

    Not sure what you mean by that - better for people who don�t want good news for Tesla/good for a big headline I guess?
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    SebastianR
    Yep. That was around the day the changes were announced (Friday 9th of October) - I heard that the Monday after was really crazy for Tesla.

    On the meaning of "sold" I heard two versions: the one - as I mentioned - from the friend talked of "sold" = ordered by customers, the other version of the story is that, Tesla "pre-ordered" a number of typical configurations in Freemont and "sold" (=assigned?) them to customers afterwards.

    It could well be a combination of both. However, I did notice a jump from "December" to "January" delivery times on October 10th for built to order vehicles, which indicates to me that all available cars until the end of December for DK were entered into the system to maximize the numbers available for the Danish market.

    As I wrote earlier, my assumption was/is that Tesla deliveries for Q4 is only limited by the number of vehicles they can import/register until the 31st of December. For a while after, on the Teslamotors.com, there was a note indicating to contact a Tesla store if you wanted a Tesla in 2015. This note is gone now, so I guess that 2015 is fully sold out. So I assume that the 2000 cars may well have happened in one day.

    Good for news media to generate clicks / controversy. Not good for Tesla.

    Edit: Just to add, I believe what Tesla is saying here is: we play by the rules. However, the change in rules made our sales surge. We order plates to satisfy the sales surge, not because we want to "hamster" plates - or - "register plates in our name and then resell the vehicle during the course of next year". Then again, I could be totally wrong here.
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    schonelucht
    Just wow. Explains why Denmark for a little while was the only country with delivery dates in 2016. Probably totally overwhelms the local organisation. I am already looking forward to the delivery numbers of November and December. It's a very nice coincidence for Tesla that they'll be able to fill the gap left from missing X production with this (unfortunately) temporary surge.
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    SebastianR
    Yep, indeed wow. And surely overwhelms the local organisation that now shouldn't really be ramped-up due to expected decline next year. Anyways, my hope is, that the Model S continues on an okish level (all versions except the higher speced P85D) since a) the increase is not immediately to the full amount and b) people will have more exposure to Tesla's.

    EDIT: Thanks for the reputation points whoever send them! Much appreciated!
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Just a small comment. An acceptable translation of "� hamstre" is "to squirrel away". ;) (Or hoard, stockpile, etc.)
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    mmd
    Couldn't Tesla hire some temps for 3-4 months? Also, it seems Tesla could deliver these slowly , even in early 2016. Depends if Tesla needs a large bump in Q4 delivery from Denmark.

    Call me skeptic, but I think many of these are being bought by private resellers. I mean, look at the price jump coming next year. Buying some of the high end Model S now could be more rewarding than holding on to my TSLA shares. There is no registration fee to be paid for private resale of these. Also, Tesla could sell some of the extra cars in its inventory registered this year at huge premiums next year. If it is legal, it would boost the margins handsomely :)
    Google Translate
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    electracity
    A Hamster interior could have been a confused response by Tesla to vegans requesting non-leather interior.
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  • Nov 12, 2015
    SebastianR
    My understanding is, this would not work. If the car is registered in January, then the tax is applicable. In order to register you need to have a) insurance coverage and b) a car.

    This is nothing to do with global Tesla needs, this is all about being able to sell a car now or not :) So I don't think any of this is driven by "global delivery demands".

    That's my point exactly. What ever Tesla does internally (pre-order / pre-configure / build to order or whatever) - at the end of the day all of these are a) sales of brand new cars to b) actual buyers in c) this year.

    Nope, that wouldn't be legal (allegedly) but this is exactly what the government accused Tesla of doing. Apparently now the minister who claimed that Tesla is committing fraud backed down from his statement. Tesla can't buy the cars for "themselves" and then resell them to "other buyers" over the course of 2016. (Again, according to my understanding of the situation.)
    �
  • Nov 12, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Again a discussion about 5000EUR direct subsidies for EVs in Germany (link).
    The German government will decide on the subsidies by the end of this year.
    �
  • Nov 12, 2015
    hobbes
    Great, thanks for posting. Hope they finally follow through with this. Especially like the idea of financing this via CO2-emissions dependent tax or tax on gas.
    �
  • Nov 13, 2015
    hobbes
    Regarding the EU sales wiki: We (Troy and I) have made a change on how to submit new numbers: If you click the link that used to lead you to the editable version of the data table, it now points to a form where you can enter the data even more conveniently. Two advantages: 1) A change log entry is automatically generated. 2) We can make sure no bad data is put into the table as we moderate the submissions before they become public.

    Thanks for everyones participation!
    �
  • Nov 15, 2015
    hobbes
  • Nov 15, 2015
    maoing
    Tesla #2 market Norway consistently shrink from Q2--> Q3 --> Q4 (so far). Is there evidence elsewhere that Tesla can meet 50% QoQ growth target in Q4?

    �
  • Nov 15, 2015
    SebastianR
    I don't want to rain on anybody's parade and I love myself a good deal of doom & gloom but I don't think that Norway is the problem. We all know that right now in the Nordics Denmark is the top priority. Due to the change of legislation Tesla have an enormous amount of cars to be delivered in Denmark until year end (and not later). After that, DK will (likely) shrink quite a bit in comparison to earlier this year.

    Now, in this situation you don't want to add permanent employees. Then you need people who know the car and speak the language. Thus you see happening what happens now: Norwegian service declines (read the forum, people complain about Tesla not being responsive in Norway) and Tesla DS being (temporarily) reassigned to Denmark. If you don't deliver in Norway now, people will be upset but you can still deliver cars later. If you don't deliver in Denmark right now, you lose the sale.

    I don't work for Tesla, I don't know their systems. But if Tesla makes even 80% of the 2000 cars it "sold" until the year end, it will far outweigh whatever the Norwegian market could bear.

    Anyways, we will know soon - if my hypothesis is right, we should see an uptick in Tesla deliveries for November (i.e. in two weeks) - note though, that I expect the majority of the cars for DK to come in December. So I don't expect 1000 cars for Tesla in November.
    �
  • Nov 15, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    I certainly think it's possible Norwegian sales staff could be sent to Denmark to help with deliveries. This would be entirely consistent with the March deliveries last year - you had sales staff from all over the EU and the US in Norway to help with deliveries. But linking it to the service wait times doesn't work. The service centers have been swamped with work for over a year, ever since the DU-issues. They've just not been able to clear away the work load. It's especially bad in the Oslo-region - I hear it's better on the west coast.
    �
  • Nov 15, 2015
    RobStark
    Fear Uncertainty and Doubt
    �
  • Nov 15, 2015
    maoing
    My question is valid concern. Why you finger point without valid reason? This is the 2nd occasion. I've been polite for you before. But I have to categorize you FUDster for reality now along several others in TMC. Please keep praising TSLA day and night regardless true or false. LoL. Period!
    �
  • Nov 15, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Denmark more than makes up for Norway, at least.

    Aslo, sometime in 2016 (March?), Model X deliveries will most probably boost sales in Norway significantly.
    �
  • Nov 15, 2015
    maoing
    Thanks Buddy.

    �
  • Nov 22, 2015
    hobbes
  • Nov 28, 2015
    hobbes
    While analyzing the Model S deliveries google sheet I realized that there are 64 entries from Denmark for 2015, more that for any other non-US country (including Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada)! Really looking forward to the actual delivery numbers.

    MrBacard didn�t give us his usual Saturday update for Norway today, I guess he figured that with just one day for deliveries left in November it wasn�t worth the trouble.
    �
  • Nov 29, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    A few hours ago, the pricing was redone for the Model S here in Norway. The prices were bumped up by around 5%, and the NOK/USD exchange rate Tesla is now using is 8.0-8.1. Currently the actual exchange rate is at 8.71.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Friend working at Tesla Europe:
    Positive:
    500 cars delivered in November in Denmark, hee sees 1,2-1,5k for Q4

    Negative:
    HQ is crazy, wont allow to open more service centers, the installed base will have doubled in 6 month, but HQ adherent that each country must carry its cost, so with sales nosediving Denmark cant possibly afford to operate 4 SeC needed, maybe not even the current 2.
    They plan to send customers to Germany and Norway for repairs, i am a Tesla bear but seriously, this wont end well
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Benz
    Has the value of the NOK against the USD dropped a bit?

    And what about the prices in the EURO-countries?
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    RobStark
    Norwegian Krone to the United States Dollar

    One Norwegian Krone equals $0.11

    093&bih=502&q=CURRENCY:NOKUSD&tkr=1&p=5Y&chst=vkc&chs=230x94&chsc=1.25&ei=qhdcVpvEJ4LzmQGG3JSQDA.gif

    - - - Updated - - -

    So instead of 10 sales in 2016 there will be 5?

    WGAS?
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Auzie
    Most currencies are dropping against US $, some more than others.

    NOK really took a dive since 2014

    NOK.JPG

    Euro is not much better

    EU.JPG

    Diverging monetary policies in US and Eurozone are likely to strengthen US $ further against Euro. I do not follow Norwegian monetary policy, so am unable to comment on expectations for NOK movements.

    This means that Tesla faces harder selling in Europe and Norway in 2016.

    It is a good news for current Tesla owners in these regions, as they got their cars for lower than current prices. It could be argued that the depreciation on their cars is counterbalanced with forex moves. It may be possible that some owners might be able to resell their cars at minimal or no loss, due to Tesla raising prices for new cars.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Not in terms of future sales, but rather in terms of negative PR and tons of lawsuits.

    Please who buy the Tesla in Denmark today are not some rich guys with 5 cars, many 1 car households, upgrading from A4/Passat/3 Series, they will be much more less tolerant regarding the issues. Seems to me like Tesla tries to save on Capex, crowded superchargers and SeC, but tons of new stores being opened.
    Making Country-VP responsible for the budget while giving them high sales targets will rather open new stores while service quality suffers, this is already visible in large markets.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    RobStark
    What does negative PR result in?

    It tells Belgian,Dutch,and other governments what the ramification of punitive taxes on electric cars.

    And cause people to substitute Big German ICEv or PHEV with low AER for Model S.

    Which is pure stupidity.

    I trust Tesla's Danish legal counsel over some random German guy on the internet.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    schonelucht
    If service centers in a particular country are financed out of sales from that particular country, then Danish customers will be looking at a degraded service with the influx of second hand cars from other European countries. It may not matter for 2016 sales, but it will matter for customer experience of the brand and possibly market potential for the model 3.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Ingenieur
    For comparison:
    Norway has 11 SeC plus 2 Ranger only Service stations for ca. 9500 cars or ca. 800-870 cars per station (if you include ranger stations its 800)
    Denmark will have 2 SeC for ca. 3500 cars by the end of the year or 1700-1800 cars per Service center

    Palo Alto sees no problem

    Norway has massive waiting time problem, guess what will happen in Denmark? This blow in their face
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    I guess this may be more complex than just the number of cars. Geography may also have something to do with it - Denmark is a small country and the terrain is probably not as split up by mountains as Norway`s. What I am trying to say is we may need more than one data point for comparison. It would be interesting to know how the car/SC is in other regions, other countries - preferably with similar size as Denmark.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Lessmog
    No, the highest mountain in DK is called "Heaven Hill" and is only about 100 meters high iirc. On the other hand, DK consists of a large number of islands and one peninsula, all separated by water. Norway has both high mountains and many waterways impeding transit, as well as longer distances.

    I agree it would be nice to have a meaningful comparison for SeC in different countries. But the infrastructure is still being built, one piece at a time.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The Danes don't know what distance is. Everything is next door.

    There are a couple of Model S owners in Kirkenes. They used to have a 19.5 hour drive to the nearest service center, but with the opening of the service center in Troms�, that will be cut to a mere 10 hours. When Tesla-Bj�rn moves to Bod�, he will have the choice between the service center in Trondheim, at 9.5 hours away, or Troms� at just 8.5 hours away. (The longest point to point car journey by the fastest route that's possible in Denmark is about 5.5 hours.)
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    hobbes
    Didn�t understand your post until I realized Kirkenes and Troms� are in Norway :).

    So basically it is not just the number of service centers that counts but their size/number of people working there, which is harder to get data on. The policy reported by Ingenieur doesn�t really make sense as after the nosedive in China Tesla has often said that they don�t want to go into a market without having enough infractructure (SeC, SuC), so it seems they should be aware of that problem.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    techmaven
    Even better would be if Tesla vehicles don't need but a minor annual checkup. That's the best way to deal with Service Center congestion.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    wayner
    Those distances are nothing compared to here in Canada. I don't know how many people in the middle of the country own a Tesla but the drive from Winnipeg to Toronto (or Vancouver) is about 22 hours. There would be closer service centres in the US but you may not be allowed to go there. And Winnipeg is a major city right on the Trans Canada Hwy, never mind remote parts of the country.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    SebastianR
    Guys, I suggest we refrain from speculating about the Danish service situation until we see what happens next year. Right now everyone and their mother are rushing to get as many Model S out the door as possible. Any Service Centre discussion should only(!) be had next year - anything else would be a distraction from the mission now.

    And in terms of next year and Tesla sales in DK? Well, I think there are pockets of untapped demand that could still yield some sales. Also, I believe that with more exposure to Tesla, people that would go for expensive ICE are more likely to buy a Model S and lastly the introduction of the tax is gradual. Don't get me wrong: I don't expect a single sale in Q1 but beyond that, I'm not all that pessimistic any longer.
    �
  • Nov 30, 2015
    Benz
  • Dec 1, 2015
    Benz
  • Dec 1, 2015
    hobbes
  • Dec 1, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Deliveries in UK should pick up as TM expanding sales infrastructure.
    TM opened 10th store in UK (link).

    Looking forward to a good November delivery number for Switzerland.
    Hope they are able to maintain that great trajectory!
    �
  • Dec 1, 2015
    mmd
    Interesting, the referral amount in UK is ~$1500. Wonder what a 70D costs in UK. From your link:

    About delivery numbers: The US estimate from insideevs (3200) looks good. Might have caused the bump in SP.
    �
  • Dec 1, 2015
    luca
    1000 dollar + tax
    �
  • Dec 1, 2015
    mmd
    You're right. I clicked his link. And got the message "Congratulations! You save $1000". So Chris' tweet is wrong. It's not �1,000 savings.
    �
  • Dec 2, 2015
    Model 3
    Then change the location to "Great Britain" and see what happens.... :)
    �
  • Dec 2, 2015
    mmd
    You're also right! So, yes, it is �1,000, which is ~$1500!
    �
  • Dec 3, 2015
    hobbes
  • Dec 3, 2015
    Spidy
  • Dec 3, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The mediation in the P85D buyers vs Tesla case here in Norway was resolved today (acceleration and hp disagreement). I haven't seen the response from Tesla, but the result was that the Consumer Council (or whatever the translation would be) feel Tesla has fulfilled their evidential burden, and will drop the case.

    This means that if the P85D buyers want anything further from Tesla, they will have to hire lawyers and sue. Apparently on some facebook group, they are trying to raise funds, but I guess we'll just have to see if anything comes from it. I think many were just looking for a free Ludicrous upgrade, so if they have to pay thousands of dollars towards a lawyer, they'll disappear. But I can't rule out that there is a hard core of 10-20 people who might sue.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The response was just posted on the EV forum here. Though it is in Norwegian:

    Tesla reply 1.png
    Tesla Reply 2.png
    Tesla Reply 3.png
    Tesla Reply 4.png
    Tesla Reply 5.png
    Tesla Reply 6.png
    �
  • Dec 3, 2015
    Drax7
    Malcontents, acceleration and top speed are sufficient, the rest is nonsense .
    �
  • Dec 3, 2015
    vgrinshpun
    Could you post a link so that non-Norwegian speakers can use on-line translating?

    Thanks.
    �
  • Dec 3, 2015
    mmd
  • Dec 3, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Sorry, that's all I've been able to find. The answer has only been sent to the complaintants, who then posted it on a closed facebook group, and then someone reposted these images on the Norwegian EV forum.

    Maybe someone can use text recognition software to get it back into text. Also, with some patience, I suspect it might pop up in the news within a few days.

    Edit: Actually, it was posted in the other thread: https://infotomb.com/i15ta.pdf

    - - - Updated - - -

    Interesting. I havent seen the actual decision, I was just relaying what some of the other posters over at the Norwegian EV forum who were on the closed facebook group were saying. Mindsweeper is probably correct in his assesment.
    �
  • Dec 3, 2015
    Cobos
    I can add that the 2 phase process is correct and in phase 2 the consumer councils ruling has the power of law. So unless the company (or the customer) decides they want a regular trial to establish a precedent it usually stops there. After all no one has been injured or other major damage. The matter is about possible false advertising and product not delivering as promised. As was mentioned in the other thread most ar insurance has an amount around $10000-$15000 for any lawyers fees but that assumes the insurance company agrees this is appropriate usage. That depends on the specifics and details of your insurance coverage.

    Cobos
    �
  • Dec 3, 2015
    Auzie
    Yggdrasill and Cobos, thanks for keeping us informed.

    Cobos, did you get the actual 1st step decision or are you just explaining the process without seeing the decision that was made?
    �
  • Dec 3, 2015
    smac
    You could skip the technology, and type the "Konclusion" into Google translate, even with my Norwegian being based purely on watching Lilyhammer I guessed that much :)

    The last sentence is most pertinent:

    "The plaintiff's claim is groundless and remains rejected"

    (^ Google translation, with a bit of "de-literalistation")
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    Auzie
    I reached the same conclusion as you about the conclusion. We could both be wrong.

    Some people claim that the conclusion is part of Tesla letter, not the Council ruling.
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    smac
    I think we may be.

    Looking more closely at the link, not the initial image (which for whatever reason the source decided to crop the Tesla letterhead and signature indicating it was from Tesla), I think yes it is simply Tesla's rebuttal, so obviously will be in their favour.

    So we must continue to wait for the official outcome from the ombudsman.
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    Auzie
    That cropping and different sizes got me on the wrong track as well.

    Quite easy to get anything wrong :smile:

    Maybe no one will post the Council reply.

    If the reply is not public, Tesla is unlikely to post it. Customers are unlikely to post it if the decision is not in their favour.

    There was a mention of discussions about the decision on a Facebook group. Perhaps we will learn from that source.
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    Matias
    The first page of that document shows that it is Tesla's responce. Not a ruling.
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    SebastianR
    Germany for November is 136 - which is not bad, but then again not great either.
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    mindsweeper

    The cover letter from Forbrukerr�det is not a ruling, decision or anything like that. It is a basic explanation to all the 193 complaintifs that as Tesla is not willing to meet at the table, the way forward is a phase 2 where a ruling will be made in either direction. It is also a recommendation to gather more evidence to have a stronger case as Tesla obviously can provide more technical details and background than what we as a group have done so far.

    The reason I am not putting this cover letter out in the public is that it is styled personally to one of the 193 - with some personal information to it.

    The last two paragraphs in the cover letter states:

    "Vi kan ikke se at Tesla sitt tilsvar viser s�rlig meglingsvilje, og finner det derfor lite hensiktsmessig � fortsette meglingen ved v�rt kontor.
    Vi im�teser en snarlig tilbakemelding p� kommentarer fra tilsvaret og om du �nsker � oversende saken til Forbrukertvistutvalget, senest innen 15.12.2015."
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    That makes more sense. Rough translation:

    "We can not see that Tesla's response shows much promise for meaningful mediation, and therefore find it is not fitting to continue the mediation at our office.
    We look forward to a prompt response with comments on Tesla's response, and whether you want to transfer the case over to the Consumer Disputes Commission, at the latest by 12.15.2015"

    Now the newspapers have also picked up on the story: Google Oversetter
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    Auzie
    Thank you for providing information.

    There seem to be many contradictions in the attached media reports, most likely due to difficulties in translations.

    There is a statement like below:

    Council.JPG

    which seems to be in contradiction with your statement, bold part, that Tesla is not willing to meet at the table.
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    That is the least accurate google translate I've ever seen. ;)

    The original quote is: "Siden Tesla if�lge Forbrukerr�det ikke viste vilje til megling, finner de det �lite hensiktsmessig� � fortsette meglingen."
    Which translates to: "Because Tesla according to the Consumer Council did not display a willingness to compromise, they find it "not very fitting" to continue the mediation."
    (Or maybe this would be a better translation: "Because Tesla according to the Consumer Council did not display a willingness to participate in mediation, they find it "not very fitting" to continue the mediation.")

    Translation is mostly about trying to capture the essence of what's being said than to try to translate word by word. Machines are pretty good at the latter, but not so good at the former, so sometimes Google translate fails spectacularly.
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    Lessmog
    Nuance is hard for hardware! :wink:
    I guess much of the confusion stems from missing the mark on the difference between, in simile, "of little use", which is essentially a negation, and "a little useful", which is not. Google cares only about big words even though the small ones can be crucial for the meaning. Small words like negations, mind! :rolleyes:
    �
  • Dec 4, 2015
    FredTMC
    In the US, tesla is emptying their inventory cars (e.g, showroom and loaner cars). These cars are sold as new (never been titled). If you live outside U.S. (EU, Asia etc) and have any info on the amount of inventory cars available for sale by tesla, let us know!

    I'm curious if tesla has been selling out on their inventory cars outside the U.S. Every inventory car sold contributes to Tesla's delivery 50k-52k target for 2015.
    �
  • Dec 5, 2015
    maoing
  • Dec 5, 2015
    ecarfan
    From that article, quote: "The Tesla Model S (157 units) was #2 in its class, only behind the Audi A6 (176 units). "
    That seems like a strong performance by Tesla, especially considering that the A6 really isn't in the same class, it's smaller and cheaper. In my opinion the Audi A7 and A8 are the Tesla competitors, along with the MB S-Class and a few others.
    �
  • Dec 5, 2015
    maoing
    Yes. In Netherland we still see moderate growth QoQ growth (22%) as for Oct/Nov. compared to July/Aug. But for all other major EU markets Norway, Germany, Sweden, Belgium and Austria, it's negative Q4oQ3 as of now. I'm not saying Q4 vs. Q3 won't be positive, but just not a strong indicator Tesla will achieve 50% QoQ growth in EU market to meet it's Q4 global delivery goal. Of course we are still waiting for Denmark number.
    �
  • Dec 5, 2015
    schonelucht
    Due to fiscal incentives, for 99% of the buyers of these cars in the Netherlands, a Tesla is actually the cheaper car. Next year, a Tesla will also be cheaper than many upscale plugin hybrids (which will loose their incentives), so I expect growing sales in the Netherlands for 2016.
    �
  • Dec 5, 2015
    Auzie
    Thanks for the clarification. I am curious about the fiscal incentives, what are they?
    �
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