Thứ Bảy, 5 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 14

  • Oct 2, 2015
    RobStark
    So a few Teslas are getting registered in Northern Ireland despite no stores,service centers, or superchargers. Perhaps a few on the Islands that are Crown Dependencies?
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  • Oct 3, 2015
    RobStark
  • Oct 5, 2015
    SebastianR
    Denmark is 121 Model S for September (according to the press release - online database not yet updated).
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    Newb
    just a quick update on quite encouraging new Model S registration numbers for September 2015 from Germany:

    133 Model S got delivered and registered in September (+138% vis-a-vis September 2014) and thus 395 Model S in Q3, which is thereby the second-best quarter ever in GER. That was also the first quarter ever of three months in a row with three digit registration numbers.

    With regards to the competition in the premium/luxury sedan segment in September: Only 98 newly registered Porsche Panameras, 129 BMW 7-series, but 497 MB S-Class, 277 MB CLS-Class, 216 BMW 6 series, 273 A8/S8 and 235 A7/S7/RS7.

    Interesting details in the statistics: Thus far, 1091 new Model S got registered in Germany and 82% of those are AWD, i.e. D-, models. We Germans seem to have been waiting for the dual motor drivetrain. Furthermore, if you only count the "private sales" (so all sales except for fleet customers, self-employed and business customers, company cars and equivalent), then the Tesla Model S is the fourth-best selling luxury sedan in Germany thus far, and might end the year on third spot right after MB S-Class and MB CLS-Class, thereby being currently more popular in Germany than BMW 7 or 6 series or Audi A8/S8 or Porsche Panamera or all Bentleys, Maseratis, Aston Martins and such altogether.
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    hobbes
    Pretty amazing... Did you take all of that from the KBA (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) data published today? That�s for cumulative 2015 data, right?
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    Newb
    yap, exactly. KBA and cumulative ytd. Indeed amazing and shows how much well-off private customers in Germany actually like the Model S and prefer it over the BMW 6 series or Porsche Panamera which get much more attention in the automotive magazines and in all the ads around us in the cities, airports, train stations, TV, cinema, etc. . I could name you like a dozen spots where I've seen advertisement (mostly posters) for the BMW 6 series or Porsche Panamera lately.

    EDIT: If anyone is interested in those numbers of "private new car sales cumulative ytd" in the luxury sedan segment in Germany, here's the full list I made based on the numbers provided by the public authority:

    ALPINA B7 BITURBO 0
    AUDI A7, S7, RS7 470
    AUDI A8, S8 131
    BENTLEY CONTINENTAL 91
    BENTLEY MULSANNE 2
    BMW 6ER 262
    BMW 7ER 79
    CADILLAC CTS 2
    JAGUAR XJ 18
    LEXUS LS 3
    MASERATI QUATTROPORTE 29
    MAYBACH 0
    MERCEDES CL-KLASSE 4
    MERCEDES CLS 594
    MERCEDES S-KLASSE 762
    PORSCHE PANAMERA 221
    ROLLS-ROYCE GHOST 1
    ROLLS-ROYCE PHANTOM 2
    ROLLS-ROYCE WRAITH 5
    TESLA MODEL S 340
    VW PHAETON 208
    ZUSAMMEN 3229
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    schonelucht
    So with Europe having 500 deliveries less but Tesla still making guidance, where did all they all go? Right hand drive markets? California? China?

    Looking forward to next quarter, if Tesla wants to deliver 16 500 cars, assuming 1500 model X's going straight to the us that still means an increase of 25% on the model S. For Europe, that's 4500-5000 units. From the forums I don't feel like there is strong chatter about European deliveries in October yet so it may come down to an end of year push..
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    Benz
    The Dutch Parliament has decided by a majority of vote (82 for, 68 against) that the government has to construct a plan to suppurt and encourage Plug-In vehicles (both new and used) for private people. This plan will be constructed by the E-Team (they work at the Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment). The plan will also include the expansion of charging infrastructure. I think that we will learn more about this plan in the next few weeks (probably in November).

    Members of the Dutch Parliament now understand that more has to be done to get less air-pollution.
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  • Oct 7, 2015
    matbl
    Just a quick note. BMW 7-series is right in the middle of a model change. I think you can't get the either the old one or the new one at the moment. So low numbers for it is expected.
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  • Oct 8, 2015
    SebastianR
    Fully agree. Yet I find it most amazing that the Panamera is losing to the Model S. We all need to remember that the Cayenne is, what transformed Prosche from 19k cars a year to +100k cars a year. If the Model X starts to eat into the Cayenne market share as much as the Model S did with the Panamera, I think we are in very good shape. Especially in Germany.
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  • Oct 8, 2015
    Drax7
    +1 Sebastian
    and the Porsche suv is not exactly cheap

    no worries
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  • Oct 8, 2015
    hobbes
    California numbers for Sep were very good, but US as a whole rather flat compared to Q2, see my post here and the sources:
    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 4

    So this doesn�t seem to make up for 500 cars. Likely right hand drive countries I agree.
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  • Oct 8, 2015
    Quant
    Hope you saw the article posted in Yahoo Finance about sales by resellers in Germany ?

    So, are we saying that Q3 was not just a production limitation but also a demand issue ? I am a bit foggy here ....
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  • Oct 8, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Some people from the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium and other countries try to sell their used cars in Germany because used car prices for Model S is higher in Germany compared to their original country.
    The amount of these cars from abroad is almost one third of the cars currently offered online!
    If you want to buy a used Model S in Germany, you would do the same and try to find a cheap offer in e.g. Norway.

    Some of the other cars seem to be duplicates (duplicate 1, duplicate 2) or just some crazy people wanting to sell e.g. 2 BRABUS (1, 2) Model S for about 200 000 EUR (and one of these Model S is offered directly by the tuning company BRABUS: Brabus GmbH, Brabus-Allee 1, 46240 Bottrop, Deutschland Tel.: +49 (0)2041 370919291).
    Looks like these people just put their car online to see what will happen.

    And yes, it looks like there are some used car Ferrari and Maserati dealers in Germany that have 2 or three used Model S cars on their lot.
    These dealers have a lot of Porsche, Bentley, Ferrari and Maserati cars on their lot together with the Teslas.
    I have the impression that Teslas are still only a few compared to the cars of other brands that they offer.
    And as mentioned above the sticker price of the used cars is pretty high in Germany.

    From what I can see here in Germany it looks like there are about 30 serious offers fo Germany cars here at the web site "mobile".

    Search including all vehicles: 60
    Search only German vehicles: 43
    Search only German vehicles with less than 1000km: 16
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  • Oct 8, 2015
    SebastianR
    This! If you compare Model S vs. other luxury vehicles of the same year / mileage you observe two things for Germany:

    1. There is (almost) nothing on the market - just a handful of cars vs. thousands sold over the past years
    2. The prices are extremely stubbornly high - indicating that people are not really trying to sell the cars but have it merely as a "testing the market".

    There was quite a bit of frustration with Tesla Sales in Germany earlier this year: If the used market is as it is in Germany, the indication is that the product is great, there are just too few cars and Tesla was accused of doing too little in Germany. Well, they changed their sales structure, hired new personnel and the latest stats show that they are beginning to move some cars now which is really great to see.
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    AustinPowers
    The main problem with the German market is still unresolved: no incentives for private buyers.
    In comparison with other high-end cars, the ratio of company cars vs. private sales is a little better for Model S as far as private sales are concerned. About one quarter of Model S sales are private buyers, whereas with cars like the Audi A8 oder BMW 7 series only around 5 percent are sold to private buyers.
    Therefor, incentives could do quite a bit of good, especially as I would imagine that quite a few of those private people buying Model S cars are stretching a bit to get one and that they would not necessarily be otherwise cross-shopping for an A8, 7 series or S class.
    At least there is a little hope on the horizon now for more incentives. We just don't know yet how substantial they will be for the private buyer. Germany tends to favor business when it comes to incentives (but that is a general thing and not limited to BEVs).
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    SebastianR
    Bad news out of Denmark: Teslas will be fully taxed as of next year. So expect the Danish market to collapse with regards to Model S + Model X.

    No English news source yet.

    Edit: To be specific: Cars above DKK 800.000 will be hit by the full tax as of Jan 1.

    Cars below that face 20% of the (up to) 180% tax in 2016, then 40% in 2017 etc. up to the full 100% of the 180% in 5 years.

    This means that the 70D / 85D are "only" going to be hit with a 20% share of the tax next year while the P version (and the higher speced 85Ds) will be hit with the full tax immediately.
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    RobStark

    General election in Denmark within the next 5 years? New government and possibly new policies?
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    SebastianR
    Hey, if I could perfectly predict the future, I would have made even more money on TSLA than I did ;-)

    Of course changes are possible. But today's decision - which was proposed by the governing party which is a minority in the parliament - was decided with votes from a broad coalition of parties. So I'm not sure how quickly that could be reversed. Tesla Denmark (and Nissan for that matter, too) are complaining heavily and say with 180% tax electric cars will be gone from Denmark in a few years.

    It will be interesting. Teslas are increasingly looked at as "cheating" as they are considered "luxury" cars that are "subsidized" by the general public. I think that's an unfair characterization and I find it telling that the new government also moves to abolish existing NOx legislation to make Diesel cars cheaper (nope, that's not a joke).
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    Lessmog
    Oh but it is! Just not funny.

    I suspect one deciding factor (beside the usual political graft for tax money) is Denmark's heavy reliance on dirty coal power plants.
    Hey! Why not build a few Chernobyl-type reactors while they are at it - I hear Ukraine has a used one, maybe for sale cheaply?

    OK, that was also not funny. Sorry, feeling bitter today.
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    Newb
    Say what?! And there's no opposition fighting this stupid decision in Denmark?
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    Familial Rhino
    I also find this surprising. Granted, my knowledge of Denmark comes from Borgen and other assorted TV series, but the image I got about the place was that of a very advanced, progressive society, in which the political process for the most part works for the good of the country. Is that image mistaken?
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    Spidy
    Not having tax breaks on luxury goods sounds like what would be popular and common in those countries. Norway is pretty much the exception with extending the benefits that long.
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    RobStark
    As Audi and Mercedes owners keep telling us Model S is not luxurious.

    Quality of materials, interior specs, fit and finish is not up to German standards of luxury.

    I keep hearing interior is comparable to Toyota Camry but not even as good as a VW Passat.

    Tesla is a premium priced alternative fuel vehicle.

    I have heard Europeans say Tesla is an American Muscle Car just with electric motors instead of V8's but comparable interiors.

    Anyway, these decisions just prove there is stupid everywhere. Even in Scandinavia.
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  • Oct 9, 2015
    Johan
    Everyone can be bought and paid for. And it doesn't help that for some reason the Danish electorate has elected the equivalent of rednecks to govern the country, a populist, racist party for the uneducated, french fries eating, soft drink drinking, alcoholic, cigarette smoking masses. (The life expectancy of the Danes is pretty appalling compared to Swedes and Norwegians, considered we're the same genetically. Never mind the Finns and their poor genes and high cholesterol. Life expectancy — Nordic cooperation)
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  • Oct 10, 2015
    Benz
    Such parties are on the rise in a few more countries in Europe as well. In The Netherlands there is this PVV party, it's also a populist and racist party. Although they are getting more and more popular every year, I still hope that they will never win the elections here in The Netherlands.
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  • Oct 10, 2015
    jkirkebo
    Both the Camry and the Passat are considered luxury cars in Denmark. They mostly buy new mini-cars like the Kia Picanto. For Toyota the Auris is probably the most selling car and for VW it's probably the Up!.
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  • Oct 10, 2015
    SebastianR
    Alright folks, I think we need to put things in perspective: I'm not a Dane - I'm just a guest in this country. So I do think Denmark & the Danes are - overall - a fantastic country and great people. Many many many things work beautifully well and if every country was like Denmark, this world would be a much much better place (I'm saying this having personally lived or worked in some 30+ different countries from the US, to Scandinavia to the Pacific, Asia, Africa and Latin America).

    Having said this, every country has its blind spots. This legislation is pretty bad for Denmark and is likely to throw the country back with regards to its sustainability efforts. There seem to be other blind spots emerging lately which includes the way the country deals with the refugee situation etc. But let's not get into politics now.

    Tesla's position in the country was quite unique to date: this year Tesla will likely sell as many cars in DK as Audi sells A6 cars. Tesla's become a common and frequent sight at least in Copenhagen and people that would otherwise buy A4/3 Series / C-Class are buying quite a few Teslas. What you can see here is what will happen when Model 3 will come and start to compete with the "upper middle class" cars: A friend of mine who was proudly driving a German engineered Mercedes C-Class sat in a Tesla once and decided to get the car - even if that costs more money. He certainly didn't care about electric cars, he just sat in the car, said "this is cool, I gotta have one" and bought the car.

    I hate the current move of the legislation: I think it is too early and it removes the incentives for Audi, Mercedes & Co. to have compelling cars for DK. But I'm grateful that we could have seen what will happen the moment electric cars are just a wheee bit better: They will kill the establishment.
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  • Oct 12, 2015
    Benz
  • Oct 12, 2015
    AustinPowers
    I don't want to delve too deep into politics either, but I guess if the refugee crisis continues to grow the way it currently does, I predict that in a few years right wing and racist parties will again be sitting in many parliaments across Europe. Let's just hope the whole situation can be resolved in a peaceful and fair manner before the abovementioned tendencies get too much footing. Because, apart from all the other risks, I am sure that fostering sustainable transport is not the highest priority of those populist and racist parties.
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Newb
    Switzerland reports 157 Tesla Model S sales in September 2015 (up 500% compared to September `14). Thereby Switzerland comes in as 2nd best market in Europe in Q3 (511 Model S sold), right behind Norway (569 Model S sold). Just to put that into perspective:

    Population U.S.: 320 million / MS sold ytd: ~16.000 / = 50 MS per million people
    Population Norway: 5.2 million / MS sold ytd: ~3.300 / = 634 MS per million people
    Population Switzerland: 8.2 million / MS sold ytd: ~1.200 / =146 MS per million people

    Some interesting observations from the Swiss auto sales statistics:
    -> With 1.149 Model S sold ytd, Tesla is now outselling all direct rivals in the luxury sedan segment including the MB S-Class (641).
    -> More astonishing, in the direct neighbourhood of German premium car factories (it's just a two-hour drive across the border to Stuttgart, the very heartland of Porsche and Mercedes-Benz), the Model S is selling better ytd than e.g. the Porsche 911 [take this, VW-Mueller!], Porsche Panamera, Porsche Cayenne, MB CLS-Class, MB ML-/GLE-Class, MB V-Class, BMW X4, BMW X6, Audi Q7, Audi TT, Audi A7, Audi A5.
    -> It's even outselling cars like the Ford Fusion(Mondeo) or Honda Jazz.
    -> MS is only some 70 cars behind the MB E-Class and might end up selling better than the E-Class by the end of the year.
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Matias
    What is the reason for Switzerland's surge?
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Newb
    Good question. Looking at the statistics, it clearly looks like Tesla has been eating into the sales of German premium cars like the MB S-Class MB CLS-Class, Porsche Panamera, but also lower-priced cars like the E-Class and BMW 5-series.

    There's not much special incentives for EVs either. The kwh is a bit cheaper in Switzerland than in Germany and the import tax seems to be lowered for EVs but that's it. Well, there may also be some effects based on some obvious mistakes with pricing Germany brands seem to be making in Switzerland. To put it simply, since the Swiss are about 20-40% richer than the average German, MB, BMW and Porsche thought that they could earn more on their cars in Switzerland. Thus, the luxury sedans are much more expensive than the Tesla Model S. Kudos to Elon Musk who said from the start, that Tesla cars will be priced almost equally throughout the world, accounting for transport and duty costs. Obviously, the Swiss are tired of the German luxury brand rip-off...
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Benz
    Correct

    But there is a geographical advantage as well. Switzerland is in the heart of Europe. Lots of Superchargers in Switzerland and also in the surrounding countries. And more Supercharger stations are coming in Europe (on average +/- 100 per year?).
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Alfred
    Tesla Switzerland added several service centers,
    distances are generally short,
    motorway speeds are limited to 120 km/h
    No home industry bias.
    Tesla Switzerland is well managed and
    secured across the board, right from the start with the Roadster, well qualified staff.

    Switzerland is often regarded as a Test Market for cars. That bodes well also for future sales elsewhere.
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    hobbes
    Maybe just a technicality - they are up year over year, but that is not new, has been like that for most of 2015. Surge sounds more short-term. Monthly numbers since January 2015:

    30-19-149-117-70-253-199-155-157 (see our wiki table here).
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    pGo
    For Norway, Q3 has been the lowest this year. Do folks see this a temporary situation or will you see an uptick soon? What is contributing to current situation? Price hike due to currency move? Thanks.
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Model 3
    If I remember correct Q3 was the lowest also in 2014. But I think we are starting to notice the lower value of the NOK vs USD (and EUR) as a result of the lower oil prices...
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Troy
    The quarterly numbers are interesting. The following graph demonstrates the change best. You can see Switzerland was not doing so well in Q1 but then in Q2 and Q3 it outperformed Germany.

    I hope you guys enjoy the new graphs. I think the wiki team did an excellent job switching to Google sheets.

    [?IMG]
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    RobStark
    Bump to see graphs better.
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  • Oct 13, 2015
    Sad
    Another reason might be that it is linked with the start of the D-models deliveries, as Swiss buyers are very keen on four-wheel-drive versions. I know a few people that were holding off buying a Tesla due to the RWD nature of the older versions.
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  • Oct 16, 2015
    hobbes
    Had to cross post this, as it belongs here more than into the Short Term thread:

    So looks like we have been missing something with the counting we have done, the only country I can think of could be in fact the UK, because we get very delayed official info from there and the RHD P85D was batched/released not so long ago as far as I can remember. Hope we�ll hear something about that at the Q3 call. When will new registrations data from UK be published?

    This is the video the quote comes from: Tesla Motors - JB Straubel - University of Nevada, Reno - 10/11/15 - YouTube
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  • Oct 16, 2015
    mmd
    Yes, it is very confusing. I just checked the SMMT link on the google charts here:
    New 65-plate takes UK new car registrations to September record - SMMT

    If you click the download link at the bottom, you see that Tesla is not listed. So, we see in row 51:
    Other Imports : September 351, year-to-date 1597.

    Even if we assume all 351 imported in September were Tesla Model S, it leads to a Q3 European total of 3644 (3293+351). Is JB saying that US sales were less than that in Q3?

    I don't know how seriously we should take these off-the-cuff remarks from Tesla execs. There have been cases in the past that such comments haven't turned out to be true (like Model X feature promises). IMHO, best to ignore these unless these appear in shareholder letters.
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  • Oct 16, 2015
    uselesslogin
    Or maybe he is talking about Q4. In any event it was a very surprising comment because you don't get to 11,500 for Q3 unless APAC is also higher than the US.
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  • Oct 16, 2015
    mmd
    Yes, that's the whole issue I have with these off-the-cuff remarks. There is no clarification on what data are being compared. Like when Elon says "Model S demand up by 49% after X reveal", is it for a day or a week or a month? And compared to what reference? IMHO, , such vague data are kind of unexpected from engineers.
    That's why I think, it is best to ignore these, as the statements are too unclear to mean anything.

    Edit: Besides APAC, Tesla also sold 35 in Australia in Sept; 309 ytd. So, about 100 more in Q3 outside NA+Europe+Asia.
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  • Oct 17, 2015
    Newb
    I don't think we (as investors or traders) should ignore such remarks. And this is not something Elon said - it was JB. ;-) Elon tends to overestimate and overstate such things but not JB.

    Here's a few thoughts on this:

    First, could it be that there are cars sold at Tilburg which are not registered in Europe, but instead shipped to Russia and neighboring countries in Eurasia? I'm thinking about the fact that there's Russian and other Euro-Asian customers and Tesla fan clubs who somehow seem to get their cars, too, although there's no stores or service-centers in Russia, Kazhakstan, Aserbajdzan, and so on.

    Second, it could well be that JB was refering to current orders, and not refering to the deliveries ytd. So, if it's true that we'll be looking at more Q4 deliveries in Europe than in the U.S., that would equate to more than 5,000 Model S delivered in Europe in Q4. (given that average U.S. deliveries are around 5,000 cars per quarter and that will stay there for Q4).
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  • Oct 17, 2015
    Benz
    JB Straubel: "In fact in Europe we sell more vehicles today even than we do in North America. This has been an incredibly strong market with the price of petroleum as high as it is, relative to prices we enjoy here in the US."

    I don't think that we should ignore this statement.

    I think he was talking about NEW reservations and orders coming from Europe. They simply have increased compared to the level that we have seen in the past. Actual deliveries of these new reservations and orders will be realised in 2016.

    I think that this doesn't necessarily mean that the rate of new reservations and orders coming from North America have decreased. They could have increased as well. But not so much as they have increased in Europe.

    My conclusion is that we just might see that the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2016 to have increased substantially (compared to the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2015).

    Keep in mind that he did say that on October 11th 2015. Meaning that the situation could be different after that date, because new reservations and orders coming from North America could suddenly increase even more than those coming from Europe.
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  • Oct 17, 2015
    hobbes
    Yeah, that makes the most sense to me. And I also wouldn�t worry about the US plateauing, as even California had its the best month of Model S sales in Sep (judging from applications for clean vehicle incentives I posted in the Short Term thread a while ago). And I believe the Auto Pilot publicity will increase demand even more.
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  • Oct 17, 2015
    schonelucht
    No. Everyone who recently ordered in Europe will be delivered in 2015. If, like you say, he is talking about recent new orders (let's say last 2 weeks), we should certainly see the bump already in november/december. Which we will need to approach guidance anyway. Another possibility is that sales in the US have flattened and Asia/Australia is picking up the slack instead of Europe.
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  • Oct 17, 2015
    RobStark
    I guess we might not see 1400+ monthly deliveries for Tesla Gen II vehicles from Norway in quite a while.

    [SIZE=+1]Party time is over for Norway's oil capital - and the country[/SIZE]

    In Norway's oil capital Stavanger, house prices are falling, unemployment is rising and orders of champagne and sushi sprinkled with gold are down - a taste of things to come for the rest of the country as slumping crude prices hit the economy.

    The oil-producing nation used to be the exception in Europe. At the height of the financial crisis in 2009, unemployment reached just 2.7 percent; when other nations have had to cut welfare spending, Oslo could rely on its $856-billion sovereign wealth fund to plug any budget deficit.

    But now it is joining the rest of Europe in its economic slump as oil prices have halved. GDP growth is expected to stagnate at 1.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. And the government expects to make its first ever net withdrawal from the fund next year as state oil revenues decline with crude prices.

    "It is a new era for the Norwegian economy. We are no longer in a league of our own," Governor Oeystein Olsen said when the central bank unexpectedly cut rates to 0.75 percent on Sept. 24 to support a slowing economy.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/16/us-norway-oil-slump-idUSKCN0SA11220151016
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  • Oct 17, 2015
    pGo

    Thanks. So, lower Q3 numbers this year may not be a one off case and weakness will continue?
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  • Oct 17, 2015
    Benz
    Yes, I agree that a certain portion of the recent orders will be delivered in December 2015 (that's the short term). But there is more to it. This increase in orders will just continue, it's not just a temporary thing, and it's not very likely that it will decrease again, I think. 2016 will be different, actually every subsequant year will be better than it's previous year (that's the long term).

    My conclusion is that we just might see that the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2016 to have increased substantially (compared to the total number of deliveries in Europe in 2015).
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  • Oct 18, 2015
    Cobos
    Yeah, the cost of the P90D is now generally too expensive for a family with upper middle class incomes. An engineer and a nurse for instance could buy the P85 if they stretched a little. Now they need to "settle" for the S70D. The interesting part is the Model X vs the Cayenne. A base X85D (using the $5000 extra compared to an S) costs about 70% of a base Cayenne Diesel with a downrated engine to 211hp. Of course they don't sell that many X5's, Cayennes and it's likes in Norway. Mostly RAV4s and Mazda CX-5 in the SUV segment, which starts at about half the price of an X85D.
    I'm more curious about the tiny minivan market or 7 person carriers. A Ford Galaxy with 4wd and automatic is about 85% of the price of the X85D, and then it's a fairly small stretch to a Model X, especially considering free long-range travel and other incentives.
    Tesla's service reputation isn't the best in Norway as well which might affect som fence sitters. Mostly due to 6-9 months wait for non-essential repairs.

    TLDR: Yes Norways Tesla sales will be lower than earlier years at least until Model 3 arrives.

    Cobos
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  • Oct 19, 2015
    Newb
    Sebastian, thanks again for the updates on Danish legislation. Just a quick question: Can we expect deliveries to Denmark to skyrocket in December then? (given that the new sales tax comes into effect for cars bought/(registered?) after 01/01/2016?)
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  • Oct 19, 2015
    LST
    Tesla leaves other Luxury Cars behind, in Switzerland
    Tidbits from an article in the NZZ am Sonntag, 10.8.2015
    ;
    From Jan to September 2015 Tesla sold in Switzerland 1'151 Model S, almost twice as much as
    Mercedes S-Class (641),
    further behind:
    Maserati Ghibli (424)
    Jaguar XF (279)
    BMW 6-series (237)
    Audi A7 (180)
    Porsche Panamera (120)
    Audi A8 (86)
    BMW 7-series (63)

    In the same timeframe 4.1% of all new cars registered were EV's (Hypbrids included).

    This is amazing per se, but alsonoteworthy within the actual political context. In the new swiss parliament (elections of this weekend) the green parties lost a total of 13 seats, down to 16 (of a total of 246 seats), whereas the right wing parties gained big +11, resulting in a majority. IMO this could indicate that the Model S is appealing because of its qualities over ICE and not because of the "green" image.
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  • Oct 19, 2015
    hobbes
  • Oct 19, 2015
    SebastianR
    Yes, I do expect a record for Danish deliveries in Q4. In fact, I talked to a guy at a party who was biting his behind that he didn't order a Model S before the deadline. I think next year will be interesting: I do expect the S70D / S85 to do moderately well(badly). I don't expect any P90Ds to be sold at all (maybe one or two but not really many more).
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  • Oct 19, 2015
    matbl
    But they are. Sort of... ;)
    As is probably Sweden in Forbe's eyes...
    (In Sweden we even had a minister of commerce who in the late 90's named Normay "The last soviet state")
    �
  • Oct 19, 2015
    Benz
  • Oct 20, 2015
    RobStark
    American Conservatives- European Liberals confuse socialism with the welfare state. Or know the difference and just use "socialism" as a pejorative.

    Socialism means state ownership of the means of production and distribution.

    Even in the US schools,police,dams,hospitals,parks are in large part controlled and operated by the government.

    81% of Nevada land is owned by the US Federal Government.
    66% of Utah land is owned by the US Federal Government.
    62% of Alaska land is owned by the US Federal Government.

    The US is not the land of anarchistic laissez faire capitalism as caricatured by many in Europe.

    Attaching a large welfare state with corresponding tax rates to a mixed Scandinavian economy that is mostly a capitalist economy does not make it socialist.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Can't you just buy a used 2014-15 Model S from another EU country and register it at the lower tax rate in Denmark before the year ends?
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    SebastianR
    Well, firstly, there is still a chance to buy a Tesla - they ask you to contact them and ask for a car that's delivered (=registered) in 2015. So if you happen to be living in DK and are thinking of buying a Model S - get yourself on a phone to Tesla ASAP!

    Secondly, I never thought of importing a Model S from another EU country but indeed that should be an option.
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    schonelucht
    If you look on the European CPO websites of Tesla, there are very little cars offered. At most a few per country.
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    RobStark
    A Dane could also buy private party.
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    Cobos
    And that is exactly what happening now in Norway it seems. Go look on finn.no our largest car classified pages. The cars are selling faster than normal and many buyers are Danish.

    Cobos
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    Benz
    Could it be that those Norwegians are selling their current Tesla Model S so that they can finance their new Tesla Model S/X?
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    That's amazing, congrats:)
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    RobStark
  • Oct 20, 2015
    smac
    Having two British teenagers, 14+16, I struggle to believe this survey. Daughter has her heart set on a Fiat 500 (which is ICE only here), and Son 16 would gladly take any car as long as it avoids walking!

    Certainly as a first/learner car neither will be getting an EV. They would be ineligible to drive stick shift if they take their tests in one ;)
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    Franko30
    Why would you need a stick shift in 5-10 years, even if not all cars are electric by then? And until then, not driving a stick shift but s.th. else won't hurt.

    Frank
    �
  • Oct 20, 2015
    Spidy
    Because it's going to be pretty annyoing if you want to borrow a friends car and then can't drive it.
    �
  • Oct 21, 2015
    smac
    Exactly ;).... Or a cheap rental, or a van, or a classic... at the end of the day it's a useful life skill. A bit like long division, even though we all now just use calculators ;)
    �
  • Oct 21, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Tesla Motors getting close to Mercedes S class sales in Europe during 2015 (link).
    With a little push during Q4 Tesla Motors might outsell Mercedes S class in Europe in 2015.
    �
  • Oct 21, 2015
    wayner
    As a Canadian I find it surprising that so many cars in the UK are still stick shift. Here in North American they have become extremely rare in the last decade, especially since the performance aspect is no longer valid due to the improved quality of automatic transmissions, or the lack of need for a transmission in a Tesla.
    �
  • Oct 21, 2015
    Newb
    Thanks a lot, Sebastian. This gives some color to it. I've just watched Bjorn's update on the referal program which he posted about 10 days ago, in which he's shown the current state of referals in Europe...and a Danish customer has accumulated almost 60 referals within a month roughly: Tesla referral program update October - YouTube

    Bjorn basically has confirmed that Danes were ordering Model S like crazy. Just to remind ourselves, Denmark is the 5th best European market with roughly 350 Model S sold in Q3 alone. Now, what to expect for Q4 then? Will we be looking at twice that number? Maybe triple?
    �
  • Oct 21, 2015
    SebastianR
    Very hard to say how much the number will move. But I sure assume that Denmark until the end of the year is only limited by the amount of Model S, that Tesla can deliver. I think the recent legislation has given a lot of people the final push to press the order button and if you remember, that a Model S in DK competes in the same price-range as better equipped Audi A4 / entry level Audi A6 the market should be reasonably big.
    �
  • Oct 21, 2015
    smac
    CO2 is a big driver in EU (negated somewhat by DSG 'boxes). Traditional auto-transmissions are less efficient, and DSG's are generally more costly.

    But you are right there's a big divide across the Atlantic between auto and manual. Things are changing as automated manuals get more common (and the price drops), so traditional torque converter style gearboxes are losing ground.

    Another decade and I suspect 3 pedal layout will be seen in the same light as cars without synchro mesh gears ;)
    �
  • Oct 22, 2015
    hobbes
  • Oct 22, 2015
    schonelucht
    Not trying to read too much in that number because it's not encouraging : July had 222 and Tesla needs to do 40% better over last quarter to meet the lower bound if its standing guidance...
    �
  • Oct 24, 2015
    hobbes
    They had 190/month on average in Q3 so 40% more would be 266 - if the last two weeks of Oct will stay at 78/week, we'd end up at 255, close enough ;). So there is a chance they�ll make it. But obviously they don�t have to do 40% more in every single country, if China keep the growth they�ve had this year, they can make up for quite a bit. At least the norway number will be higher than last month, some people had been speculating it would stay down or even drop further because of market saturation.
    �
  • Oct 25, 2015
    hobbes
  • Oct 26, 2015
    schonelucht
    Your previous remark that Norway is just one country, stands. But still, it used to be a pretty important country. If it stays at these comparatively low levels, that means demand in other countries need to pick up even more to make guidance. I remain on the sidelines for now, there is just too much possibility for a big guidance adjustment.
    �
  • Oct 27, 2015
    RobStark
  • Oct 27, 2015
    Benz
  • Oct 27, 2015
    electracity
  • Oct 27, 2015
    RobStark
  • Oct 27, 2015
    ggr
    The Mercedes S-class had a relatively recent design refresh, so I think it's very encouraging that the externally-3-year-old Model S has nearly caught it. Of course the Model S (even the ones already on the road!) just had a refresh... just not the body shape.
    �
  • Oct 27, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    It should also be worth mentioning, that while the report talks about estimates, we have pretty solid official registration numbers from Europe. In fact, our own EU Wiki shows 10,689 for Europe, so the data they collected checks out.
    �
  • Oct 27, 2015
    electracity
    Aren't Mercedes S class sales actually up compared to several years ago? The implication is that Tesla is taking Mercedes S series sales. This may not be true. I suspect most buyers were previously mid tier car owners. Comparing Tesla sales to all Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Lexus and infiniti sales would be a whole lot less dramatic.

    Considering tax credit, fuel costs, and purchase price in Europe, the entry S class Mercedes is a considerably more expensive car than the entry level Tesla in some (most?) of the EU.
    �
  • Oct 27, 2015
    RobStark
    S Class sales were way up in 2014 and Q1 2015. Down since then. Tesla is almost assuredly taking marginal S Class sales. The rest of the segment is down(Panamera) or flat.

    Most buyers in the segment are new to the segment. Stepping up from the E Class 5 Series segment. This is especially true for Model S owners because they are 20 years younger on avg than S Class owners. And S Class does have the highest repeat business in the class, largely corelated to the fact they have the oldest owners.

    Comparing Tesla to the entire Brand of Mercedes would be less dramatic because Tesla does not yet have competitors in every segment therefore not taking customers from Mercedes in every segment. Tesla is just competing against ~5% of Mercedes sales.


    S Class starts at roughly 22k Euros more than Tesla before various taxes. It should be taxed at far higher rates and dirtier fuel should be taxed at far higher rates than less dirty fuel. Considering all the damage pollution does. Mercedes nor any of ICEv makers should be allowed to simply pass on the financial burden of their pollution to the taxpayer.
    �
  • Oct 28, 2015
    electracity
    Happened to Cadillac in the U.S. It's dangerous for Mercedes to lose the position as the aspirational mainstream car. I assume many C class sales happen because of the position of the S class.

    Cadillac makes some very good cars again. But has a huge negative image among many buyers simply because it was once at the top.
    �
  • Oct 28, 2015
    matbl
    I still think that comparing Tesla MS to S-class/A8/7-series is wrong if you want a good understanding of potential sales, the car markets, etc.

    Norway accounts for a lot of the sales in europe, and price wise a MS is in reach for a normal good income middle class household. The others are not.
    In other countries like sweden the MS is pricier than most cars but the 70 is still within reach for many higher income households while the others are not.
    �
  • Oct 28, 2015
    SebastianR
    I agree on this one. In DK (until now) a Model S is about as expensive as an entry level Audi A6 / well specked Audi A4 - this is a far cry from the S-Class in terms of money. Still it is great to see that number of sales for an Audi A6 are pretty much at par as the number of sales for a Model S in DK.

    IMHO Comparing Europe as a continent is not really helpful in this case as there are too many regional differences that actually matter.
    �
  • Oct 28, 2015
    RobStark
    In Sweden a BMW 730d starts at 898,200 sek.

    In Sweden a Tesla Model S 70d starts at 854,950 sek.

    In Sweden an Audi A8 starts at 828,000 sek.
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Guys, Norway and Denmark are very important markets for Tesla and this year they should account for about 10% of sales. However they are definitely the exception in pricing: As far as I know Model S is in the luxury sedan bracket everywhere else.
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    Spidy
    Yes, but those 2 already make up 1/3 of the sales in Europe.
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    schonelucht
    Taxes on purchase don't tell the whole story. For example in the Netherlands, cars provided as an incentive by companies to employees get taxed (yearly) as income for that employee. Difference between a model S and a 7 series here is easily 15k EUR... every single year of ownership(!). On top of that after purchase by a company, that company has a favorable (>100%) tax deduction as a 'green investment' for the car which it wouldn't have with a non-EV car. Not surprisingly, all model S sales in the Netherlands are as company cars through this scheme. The difference is fiscal incentive is truly is difficult to overstate.
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    RobStark
    We all know about the incentives in Norway, The Netherlands, and expiring incentives in Denmark.

    Tesla is doing really well in Belgium and Switzerland.

    What are the special incentives in Belgium and Switzerland that are pushing Tesla forward?

    It seems Tesla is also starting to gain traction in Sweden and Austria. What are the special incentives here?
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    I agree with Rob here. Yes, incentives in 2-3 Northern European states have been great and no doubt helped sales. But this constitutes to about 10% of Tesla's global volume, so while important, does not single handedly explain why the Model S will handsomely beat BMW7 and Audi A8 sales globally and has a chance of catching the No1 spot ahead of the S Class in some countries like Switzerland where people are some of the richest in Europe and could by either. And even in the US, sure the 7500 federal and some local tax credits surely help, but the Model S has an ASP north of 100k - i would think in that price range purchase decisions are much less impacted by incentives. (Maybe help justifying the buy for the wife :) )

    Anyway, what class a car belongs to is not really dependent on local taxes, incentives and discounts. It has much more to do with the car size, performance and luxury, plus the MSRP. But yes, in those 3 countries it would be unfair to claim the Model S captured the top spot on merit alone, when it costs about as much as a Passat.
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    Borka
    Sweden has a 40k SEK (4700isch US$) incentive for electric cars.
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    Lessmog
    Yes, on paper - but the gov'mt has so far failed to refill the coffers so the allowance is expected to have run out in July. Hard to tell exactly, because the backlog is big, the authority is still turning over the papers for cars registered in May, June and July. During last week the amount paid out equaled three (3) cars ... this week so far no update at all! Mine was registered the first week of July so I'm waiting anxiously.
    �
  • Oct 29, 2015
    Model 3
    ... and they have some very good neighbors ;) Which probably helps to raise awareness on Tesla in Sweden...
    �
  • Oct 30, 2015
    schonelucht
    Belgium also has a very favourable tax regime for company cars. You'll find that most Tesla's sold in Belgium are through this scheme. Switzerland is a rich country whose currency massively appreciated overnight (literally!) which gave everything foreign a 10-20% discount. It's also a very decentralised country where some cantons will give EVs differing fiscal incentives. You'll find an overview (not in English) on the website of the department of energie.

    I don't know enough about these countries. Maybe someone else can answer that question. Also, I want to point out that while Belgium, Sweden and Austria are doing ok, there is no way to compare their numbers per capita with the leading countries were incentives have been absolutely massive (read worth over 100% of the car).
    �
  • Oct 30, 2015
    RobStark
    This is what I found for Belgium

    "The deductibility rate for expenses related to the purchase and use of company cars is 120% for zero-emissions vehicles and 100% for vehicles emitting between 1 and 60g/km of CO2. Above 60g/km, the deductibility rate decreases gradually from 90% to 50%."


    The Mercedes S550 PHEV qualifies for 90% deductibility.

    The 2016 BMW 740e PHEV qualifies for for 100% deductibility.

    20% and 30% is significant but not Norwegian massive where PHEVs get penalized for added weight vs their conventional counterparts.




    Swiss Franc to US Dollar
    hart?es_sm=93&q=CURRENCY:CHFUSD&tkr=1&p=5Y&chst=vkc&chs=230x94&chsc=1.25&ei=SiMzVvaUFsj6jwOJt6xY.gif

    Swiss Franc to Euro

    rt?es_sm=93&q=CURRENCY:CHFEUR&tkr=1&p=5Y&chst=vkc&chs=230x94&chsc=1.25&ei=riMzVqKVNYH4jwP2jZ_gAQ.gif


    Germans should have an advantage no?



    Never said Belgium is doing as well as Norway. I said Tesla is doing really well here and it is per capita in relation to all the countries in which Tesla operates.

    And I said Tesla is starting to gain traction in Sweden and Austria. Not that these are top Tesla markets.
    �
  • Oct 30, 2015
    RobStark
    I looked into Switzerland.

    BEVs are exempted from 4% import tariff, partial and in some cantons complete exemption from road tax that can save a BEV owner up to 300 Swiss Francs per year, and obviously you don't pay petrol/diesel taxes which save a BEV driver roughly 100 Swiss Francs per 1k miles driven. I take it they tax electricity in Switzerland too? All in all not that great incentives.
    �
  • Oct 30, 2015
    Benz
    That was last week. Time for a new update?
    �
  • Oct 30, 2015
    matbl
    I never said 70D. I said 70...
    Anyway. I know they are there price wise. But for the bmw or audi you really need to add a lot of options to get a decent car. With a Tesla, not so much...
    Also, the current company car taxation make a tesla affordable if you're a small business owner or can get a company car. Tye others, not so much.
    �
  • Oct 30, 2015
    Newb
    I don't think incentives are so great in Switzerland or Sweden or Austria or Belgium that it was a no-brainer to buy a Model S. It's just a great product with a great brand image. And people who can afford it, get to know Tesla and realize just that. Either way, Tesla is an increasingly compelling brand with a compelling product which many people, even those who cannot afford it, want to have.

    It's like with the iPhone. There's still many average lower middle-class folks in Europe who cannot afford to spend ~$900 on a smartphone and therefore buy cheaper smartphones of Huawei, Samsung or less known brands. Or they get the 5s or a used 5 or 4s.

    Therefore, I think there's zero chance that Tesla will suffer from demand issues in the foreseeable future (~5 years).
    �
  • Oct 30, 2015
    RobStark
    You don't need to add a bunch of options to a 7 Series or Audi A8 to get to a base Model S.

    That contention borders on the absurd.

    The luxury levels of materials,fit and finish can't currently be reached by Tesla.

    Tesla's ace in the hole is "free long distance travel for life" included in the base price.

    BMW ,Mercedes,and Audi also offer rather large discounts off MSRP especially to business customers, Tesla not so much.

    And you can get a German car that gets favorable tax treatment.
    �
  • Oct 31, 2015
    bonaire
    It has been going on 5 years now and EVs have slowly ramped up in sales. But sales certainly should not be hoping for a future that heavily relies on these subsidies (ie. schemes). To be fair, the industry has begun and companies are building cars. Cost of scale of EVs is definitely not there yet (until brand-models reach 100,000 per year, scale is not there yet). But once scale is reached, input costs should be smoothing out and going down and subsidies should be lifted. We all know that if a subsidy is in place, the MSRP of the product benefitted by the subsidy can be raised by that subsidy. It is the "retail way" - wholesale price plus profit motive = selling price. We also know Telsa has stated a quite large Gross Margin on the Model S. As such, there is room to lower the price - in order to create an economic demand cycle. Lower price = more demand = more sales. The only way I see EVs growing in sales is to lower the prices at least as much as the biggest market's subsidy. that means everything from Leaf to Volt to Model S and X should have their prices pared by 7500 before the tax credit dissolves. Since that comes with cost of scale, Model 3 needs to be ready to be sold without incentives by 2020 at a price many can afford (and gas prices will recover and raise to cause demand).

    Biggest issue are the huge incentives of Denmark and Norway. I have to wonder if they can ever drop those incentives without a big impact on EV sales. Their taxes and import costs of ICE vehicles is unnaturally huge. It's not like 7500 tax credit like the US. It is more like a 50% tax credit if we were to look at it this way in the USA. The only way to match it here is to change our fed tax rebate. We now see that businesses are being said to be able to take $25k tax credit for the heavier Model X if they use the old credits available from 10+ years ago (the Hummer credits).

    I am a big advocate of trying to get input costs down on EVs to get their prices lowered in order to get more people interested. However, here in the USA, the biggest hurdle is our low gas prices (economic decision point) and the nasty dealerships who know an EV sold is equal to a loss of a few hundred to $1000+ loss in future service for that vehicle. Low # of brake jobs, oil changes, thrown timing chains, oil leaks, etc. Biggest hurdle is the NADA, dealerships and mis-construed public education on the topic (or lack of).
    �
  • Oct 31, 2015
    Lessmog
    It seems to me the big "incentives" of NO & DK are similar to the relief one would get from no longer hitting self over the head with a hammer.

    In those countries, all cars are hit with shockingly penalizing taxes -- with the present exception of electric vehicles, which are sold more or less at actual price or at least more mildly taxed. That exception not really a subsidy, as I see it. But it does contribute to the sales of those cars!
    �
  • Oct 31, 2015
    SebastianR
    To be honest, I don't mind. As these "absurd" taxes/fees help get many of the other aspects of the country going really well. Also, keep in mind that neither Norway nor Denmark has any domestic car industry, so penalizing a "foreign" product is not really that bad if the substitute is a national product (at least from a nationalistic point of view). Also, since health care is paid for by the state, they have a natural incentive to have a healthy population which is clearly contributed to by encouraging people to ride their bikes (as they do here in CPH). I believe I read some time ago, that Copenhagen did some calculations and come up with about 1 USD of health-care cost savings for every 1km bike ride / day for each of the inhabitants. In light of that, they invested heavily into safe, convenient and comprehensive bike infrastructure and frankly, I love it! This is the only country I ever have seen having multi-lane bike paths...

    Anyways, I agree with you that you could argue that it is not really a "subsidy" in the classic sense and merely a tax incentive.
    �
  • Oct 31, 2015
    Lessmog
    We seem to be very much in agreement. Although IIRC Norway had a budding domestic electric car industry some years ago, which fizzled out, and that's where the incentives originated. That those are still around is serendipitary and very good for present electric car vendors.

    I only wish my Swedish (partly Green) gov't would stick to its promises and deal some more carrots (for green cars) along with all the sticks (added tax penalty for fossil fuels). All their talking hot air could run a few windmills ... :wink:
    �
  • Oct 31, 2015
    RobStark
    The Hummer $25k tax incentive is a business tax deduction not a credit or rebate and can't be combined with the personal $7500 tax credit. Which amounts to the same thing, $7500 off your tax bill. The difference is this incentive does not have a sunset provision.

    Regarding making people walk or ride bikes through the tax code; the freedom to be perfect is no freedom at all.


    In the name of reducing government healthcare cost governments can force you to give up salt, fats, meats, tobacco,sugar etc. How about taxing television and television service;mobile phones and mobile phone service to encourage people to get off the couch and exercise?

    The only thing fun to do that won't possibly be taxed is sports and sex?

    Or maybe the State wants to lower rates of STDs?
    �
  • Nov 1, 2015
    SebastianR
    Rob, I appreciate most of your posts, but here you clearly veer off-topic. Taxes are almost always connected with promoting / discouraging certain behaviors and from a conceptional / philosophical point of view I don't see any danger for freedom here: If a bank levies a ATM cash withdrawal charge of $1 for each time you take out money (to encourage you to take fewer times bigger amounts) - that's heralded as "a good business move" as it aligns the banks and your interest through an incentive. If a government now supports healthy behaviors to save tax payers money that's all bad?!? I lived in NYC for many many years and I hate if people start to legislate what you can/can't buy for "health reasons" - ref. Bloomberg's big soda ban. But if you align incentives, I can't see any fault with that - so I would be ok if you tax the living daylights out of oversized sugar drinks (let's ignore the practical impossibility of such an endeavor for a second).

    Anyways, back on topic: Are any numbers from Norway known for October yet? I'm personally quite curious how DK did this month, too. I heard rumors that Tesla DK ordered a large number of "typical configurations in typical colors" before the change of the law was decided to allow for a large number of deliveries until the end of the year. Let's see how that will unfold.
    �
  • Nov 1, 2015
    RobStark
    Difference is it is very easy to switch banks.

    Much more difficult to switch countries.



    BTW Pot meet kettle.
    �
  • Nov 1, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Unofficial count is 198 for October. According to MrBacardi.
    �
  • Nov 1, 2015
    hobbes
  • Nov 2, 2015
    Fanatic
    54 model s delivered in Sweden in Oct, up 350% year to year.
    �
  • Nov 2, 2015
    Benz
    I just checked the OVF website, and it seems that there were exactly 198 Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway in October 2015.

    The total for 2015 (so far) stands at 3,441 Tesla Model S deliveries in Norway.

    MrBacardi was right.
    �
  • Nov 2, 2015
    Benz
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