Thứ Ba, 22 tháng 11, 2016

Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday) part 5

  • Apr 2, 2013
    ModelS8794
    Here

    US Bank and Wells Fargo will provide 10% down financing assuming a good credit rating, and the down payment is covered or more than covered by US Federal and state tax credits ranging from $7,500 to $15,000.

    Edit: gregincal is correct, there is no additional financing arrangement. Musk is simply pointing out that the 10% down payment will be offset by your tax rebate in a few (3-15) months post your purchase
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Russell

    True Cost of Ownership | Tesla Motors

    "US Bank and Wells Fargo will provide 10% down financing assuming a good credit rating, and the down payment is covered or more than covered by US Federal and state tax credits ranging from $7,500 to $15,000. New Jersey, Washington and DC also have no sales tax for electric vehicles. These advantages are not available when leasing."
  • Apr 2, 2013
    EV>ICE
    It seems to me like todays announcement was to increase sales to a broader base. But, if you use the online calculator, you are still paying out of pocket close to 1K/month with 10% down, so I am not sure how many more people will be able to afford the model S.

    Perhaps the cancellation rate had increased, or the production yields in Fremont had increased beyond 500 cars/week, so Elon had to do something to increase demand with little expense for TM. Based on the last reservation calculations, they were getting about 30 reservations/day which equals about 10,800 new sales for this year. Add that to the 15,000 existing reservations at the end of 2012, and TM sales would just equal sales before any cancellations.

    I think that the true resale value of a model S will be higher than 43% in 3 years, as there is less wear & tear on an EV. ICE autos have a lot more issues at the end of 3 years that an EV wont have (loosening exhaust system, more heat issues in the engine breaking down components, cooling system issues, etc.) Thoughts?
  • Apr 2, 2013
    tander
    +1, it's a smart move, the more buyers the sooner TSLA can get to Gen III
  • Apr 2, 2013
    xtothem
    I agree with everyone on the boards about their suspect calculations to get to $500. I think the "leasing offer" they present will be extremely successful especially once the charging network has been expanded. I do, however, think that this is the correct way to spread the Tesla brand.

    I think this is exactly where they are going with this leasing program. Demand was likely staying steady from month to month but not enough to justify adding another production shift. Doing this would address slowing demand, decrease customer wait time and significantly boost the production capabilities.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    NigelM
    Yup! I'm happy to PM everyone my account details now.....:biggrin:

    On second thoughts, I'll emulate Elon and you can all give it to "Doctors Without Borders" please.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    gregincal
    That means nothing. Again here's my translation from Teslaspeak: You pay 10% down, the money you get back from the government will more than cover what you paid in the downpayment. Show me one place where it states that you don't need to make a 10% downpayment.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Eeyago
    I am completely numbers challenged when it comes to finances (wife does the bills). Can someone please explain in laymans terms what "US Bank and Wells Fargo will provide 10% down financing" means? Will they apply for the Fed tax credit and they keep it as part of this 10% down?
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Russell

    "US Bank and Wells Fargo will provide 10% down financing assuming a good credit rating,..." Like a traditional loan, they require 10% down.

    And the part about "...the down payment is covered or more than covered by US Federal and state tax credits...' means you will get it back during tax time. Essentially nothing down.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    gregincal
    I took it to mean that they will provide a loan with only a 10% down requirement.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    swaltner
    Right, Wells Fargo is offering you financing for purchasing a Tesla Model S. The terms of that financing are 10% down and 2.95% over 66 months. This doesn't say that Wells Fargo is going to offering to pay your 10% downpayment. Your downpayment should be mostly or completely paid by your tax refund and other incentives. Wells Fargo want you to pay 10% of the purchase price (minus the $5000 reservation fee, which you've already paid) before you take possession of the car. You own the car with the title in your name with Wells Fargo having a lien on the car.

    My local credit union will finance a new car for 63 months at 1.79%. However, if you finance elsewhere did that, you probably couldn't take advantage of Tesla Motors offer of a guaranteed buyback price at 3 years. Carrying a loan to the full term of 66 months with Wells Fargo would cost $5072 in interest on a $60,000 loan with payments at $986/month. Using the local credit union for a 63 month loan at 1.79% would yield total interest of $2908 with loan payments of $998. Pay off the loan three months quicker for the "same" monthly payment. It all depends upon if you think you'll need to take advantage of Tesla's guaranteed buyback price or not.

    To me, it seems like a better option to just finance with the local credit union at the lower interest rate. But, nothing wrong with having more financing options out there.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    drinkerofkoolaid
    How does a service contract work this these options? Also, unless I'm mistaken, the true cost of ownership on their website does not account for sales tax, that could add $5000-6,000 to the savings. This would take $100-200 off the monthly total.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Russell

    I misinterpreted the press release. With just 10% down, US and Wells will finance the car.


    Since this is NOT a lease, you get to claim the tax credits.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    v12 to 12v
    They are going to sell Signatures again? For $40k??
    That would give "Signature Premium" a whole new meaning. Ouch.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    drinkerofkoolaid
  • Apr 2, 2013
    ModelS8794
    As I read through the conference call transcript, I see your interpretation is correct, gregincal. Apologies for the misinterpretation!

    Unknown Analyst
    You'd still be putting money down though because the tax credits only come in a particular time. Right? I mean you still have to front the money don't you?

    Elon R. Musk
    Yes. It's -- there is some time delay which can vary from 3 months to a year sort of thing, depending upon when you buy the car versus when tax time is. Actually I think the California one is immediate -- sorry the California one is immediate, the federal one is a tax time.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    sp4rk
    No one asked 2 important questions about a lease.

    1) Is there an annual mileage restriction?
    2) Normally a lease includes service. Do you have to buy the $600 year service plan still with this "lease"?
    3) They referred to a Merc S class. But which one. Huge difference in price between say S430 and S550.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    gregincal
    Your answers are here.


    1. 12000 miles. 25 cent deduction per mile beyond that.
    2. Yes, service is separate (and required)
    3. It's a 43% residual value. ("This resale value percentage is based on an average of the last twelve months of residual value percentage for a three year old Mercedes S550 as established by Automotive Leasing Guide.")
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Russell

    1) 12k .25 every over.
    2) My guess no, but, "The Vehicle is maintained by Tesla Motors or its subsidiary according to Tesla�s recommended service schedule. You must not have taken any action that would void the New Vehicle Limited Warranty on the Vehicle."
    3) S550

    http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/tesla-resale-value-guarantee.pdf
  • Apr 2, 2013
    drinkerofkoolaid
    If you want to see some fun math, see what happens when you type 30 into the time savings from using the HOV lane, and change stops at the gas station to 5 times per month. The TCO for the 85kwh Model S comes to $253 per month :)
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Norbert
    So my understanding is that this has an advantage over a loan due to the guaranteed resale value, and an advantage over a lease since you can keep the car, if you want, without having to pay the remaining 50%, or so, at once (you just continue the monthly payments).

    In principle, giving you the best of both worlds.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    aznt1217
    The key benefits are exactly what you describe.
    1. The target buyers (at least the mass) are people who want an E/S class. Typically these cars are leased because this demographic likes to change cars every so often. I'm not sure what the conversion rates are for full buying on the vehicles but when they convert it's based on a capitalized cost you negotiate. So there's a huge hassle and uncertainty in that segment of the lease. It also avoids the risk of market uncertainty for the car once it is used.

    2. You build potential equity. With a typical lease you are just throwing money out the window like rent and you never see your downpayment again unless you get some "deal" like a sign and drive event. At least with this, you have the option to keep the car with a no nonsense policy. It puts the power in your hands.

    3. Tax benefits. It's treated like owning a car instead of leasing which can get you tax benefits and write offs on two ends, the tax credit for going green and a new car sales tax deduction. This is huge because it turns the down into a non-sunk cost.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    EVNow
    Most common leases have fixed residual. Nothing to negotiate if you are buying the car.

    Same thing. If you buy the leased car at the end of lease, it is exactly like "building equity".


    For individuals, no such benefit. Infact there are questions about tax benefits of financing the car vs leasing it. With lease the whole lease is a business expense, with financing, it isn't clear to me you can deduct the whole monthly payment.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    joefee
    Yes, my hat is off to them!
  • Apr 2, 2013
    EarlyAdopter
    It's a 66 month loan. You still owe money on the principal to the bank at 36 months.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Russell
    That's what I thought too, but no one said that nor did the press release.


    It's a loan with the option to sell back at a predetermined price. That's the revolutionary part. But you are still on the hook for the remaining loan balance.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    anticitizen13.7
    I can see why Elon is excited about this... it expands the potential customer base by a lot. Wealthier customers who lease in order to get a new car every few years will find this appealing.

    I follow Tesla for the technology, and have never leased a car (I pay 100% cold, hard cash upfront for my cheap cars), so this is not as exciting for me personally, but I see why it matters in the long run.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    michaelwb
    With $7,500 down and 2.95% financing over 66 months, the principal balance after 36 months is about the same as the buy-back price after 36 months. So you could "turn in" your car after 36 months, as you would with a lease, without penalty. In this sense, the effective "lease" price for a base Model S with "$0 effective down payment" is $1,044/month + tax over 36 months, 36,000 miles.

    $71,070 base Model S
    $7,500 down ($0 "effective" down after tax credit)
    $1,044.61/month

    After 36 months:
    $30,175 principal balance
    $30,560 buy-back

    Of course, the math changes when you factor in sales tax. In Los Angeles, the monthly payment would rise to $1,149, the principal balance would be $33,210, so you would be underwater by $2,650 after 36 months and pay that amount at turn-in.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Norbert
    Bloomberg interview: Elon Musk on Tesla Model S Financing: Video - Bloomberg

    - - - Updated - - -

    Another one is going to be about re-engineering Tesla service.

    A third one he doesn't want to say yet, "except to say that if you are driving Model S, it is right under your nose".

    He got SEC approval for "tweeting" such things.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    vfx
    cnn.com says half of luxury cars are leased. Add in the fears of what a battery will do over time this is aimed at first timers. No one here falls into that category.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    Norbert
    There were quite a few articles casting doubt about the resale value of EVs.
  • Apr 2, 2013
    apacheguy
    My money's on the "step" change in SC technology that Elon has been referencing. Plus, sounds like they will be unveiling new stations on the order of every week. That's exciting.
  • Apr 3, 2013
    Right_Said_Fred
    There are already a lot of headlines (in Google News) saying thing like 'Leasing a Model S for $ 500? Not really'. Tesla created a great offer but took it one step too far by emphasizing all the possible cost abd time savings, and that is now blurring the message.
  • Apr 3, 2013
    Robert.Boston
    Yes, and the bank has first claim on the buy-back $$. I think, though, that you'll be okay. Here's an interesting coincidence: if you have a 10%-down, 2.95%, 66-month loan, the outstanding balance after 36 monthly payments is 43%. That number sound familiar to anyone?
  • Apr 3, 2013
    vfx

    What I'm seeing is a forced devaluation. They are basing EV resales on the limitations of ICEs.

    Who are "they"? Appraisers and the public. When Roadsters first started coming on the market they just sat. And sat. Used Tesla buyers were just not going for the concept of a higher price for a car that has much less drivetrain wear for similar miles. It may take a decade for that to change. If it ever does.
  • Apr 3, 2013
    Norbert
    I wonder if making those numbers more or less equal (43% for resale value, and for the loan pay off), came before using the S-class as a reference.

    BTW, they changed it to 63 months (on the calculator page).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Today, Elon gave a timeline/order of the upcoming announcements:

    Elon Musk: Hitchhiking The Galaxy As Tesla Comes Of Age - Forbes
  • Apr 3, 2013
    gg_got_a_tesla
    These "announcements about upcoming announcements" shtick from Elon is getting tiresome; can't keep up with all the speculation and the stock gyrations in the interim followed by the eventual letdown. Need to find a nice cave to live in for the next few weeks till this is all done with ;)
  • Apr 3, 2013
    Norbert
    It does get media attention. That's important in itself. ;)
  • Apr 3, 2013
    Curt Renz
    Indeed, with no marketing department or advertising budget, Musk is creatively enticing the media to provide free coverage. That's good for the long-term growth of the business, despite the attendant short-term share price volatility.
  • Apr 3, 2013
    Clprenz
    Hold up, wasn't this a 66 month agreement yesterday? "Based on a 2.95% APR, 10% down payment, and 63-month term loan, excluding sales tax and registration."
  • Apr 3, 2013
    ohaq
    In the calculator the gas is based on 15000 miles/year but dont do that. The terms and condition say that you pay 0.25 per mile if you go above 12000 miles. It should have just been set to 12000 miles

    I dont like the calculator. Why waste my time and then I get an email that this is only available in selected states.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    yobigd20
    yeah. it was 66. now it's 63. Who does a "63" month term? at least 66 is 5.5 years. eh thats still weird to me, but i've seen some banks do it. but 63? They just wanted an odd number to be different again? "hey we're the first to offer a 63 month term! be the first to have an odd number of months on a car loan in auto history!!" lol.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    Norbert
    If you keep complaining they'll change it to 61 months. Then you can't divide it by 3 either.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    aznt1217
    That's exactly why Tesla/Musk & Co. Are doing this plan. To put a residual price floor, so that when the market speaks for the used Model S/Future EV market, they'll take whichever is higher.

    A used 2010 S550 with 40,000 miles goes for 58,000 where I am. I think it's a halfway decent base. Don't listen to Bloomberg who used the S600 as a reference for depreciate value. Nobody in their right mind would do that, that and the s600 sticker is so high it works out anyway lol.

  • Apr 4, 2013
    ElSupreme
    My mom got a 27 month lease from BMW. If you ask you can get all sorts of crazyness. My dad got a 59 month loan period, because the bank increased their rates at 60 months, asked for a 59 month one and they said sure (regional bank back in the 90s).
  • Apr 4, 2013
    Sans Gas
    Looks like most interest is in expansion of the super charging network. Maybe that will be the next HUGH announcement.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    ItsNotAboutTheMoney
    The used car market is much more value-oriented than the new car market, so low-volume, high-maintenance and profit-making optioned-up cars get a serious beat-down while fuel efficient, low-maintenance cars get rewarded.

    BEVs have cheap fuel and are very low maintenance, but unfortunately they have large traction batteries that have limited and unpredictable life and are expensive to replace (sometimes at unknown cost).

    BEVs have the additional problem is that people expect that something cheaper and better will be around the corner.

    Time will provide more data and decrease the uncertainty, probably raising the resale price.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    Curt Renz
    The announcement next week will be service related. The Supercharger announcement will come a week or two later. Then a mystery announcement regarding something under a Model S driver's nose: Elon Musk: Hitchhiking The Galaxy As Tesla Comes Of Age - Forbes
  • Apr 4, 2013
    ModelS8794

    The point of this program is to have a purchase and loan that matches the characteristics of a lease, so that the large pool of Luxury car buyers who prefer leasing can see the MS as a viable option.

    In order for a loan to look like a lease, it needs to have an opportunity to return the car to the dealer at the end of the lease term (36 months in this case) and have the customer simply walk away free and clear. To make the situation work the same way with a purchase and put-back option, you need 1) a fixed guaranteed price that Tesla will pay at month 36, 2) and that price needs to be equal to the remaining principal on the original loan, so that the customer returns the car, Tesla pays them the guaranteed price, the customer turns around and hands that cash to the lender, and everything is paid off free and clear.

    I suspect the terms of the loan are designed so that the monthly payments are made for 36 months and the remaining balance at the end of that period is equal to the guaranteed payment a customer will receine when he returns the car. Perhaps the math works out just so only if the loan is amortized over 63 months.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    ohaq
    How come the leasing for Leaf/volt is so less.
    For leaf $25000 lease is $250 and for a volt $32000 lease is 330. So if you double the amount $64000 which is base price of tesla, then the lease for tesla should be $660, instead of $1100.

    Just taking it all out, no one at home understands why I want a tesla.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    gjunky
    I think it is because this is not a lease. It is a 63 month purchase with a guaranteed buyback. So you are paying for the entire car. If the residual value after 36 months is more than you owe, they will pay you the difference if you decide to return the car. At least that is how I understood it.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    VolkerP
    36/63 = 0,571428571428 so pretty close to 57% of your loan are payed back. Nicely matches the 43% residual value warranty by Tesla/EM. And the 36 month time window nicely matches typical lease terms.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    yobigd20
    Ok, now this makes a lot of sense. At the end of 36 months, you've paid 57% of your loan. If the car is worth more but Tesla buys back at 43%, they are going to make a nice profit on the resale. Now I get it.
  • Apr 4, 2013
    Norbert
    Or you make a profit: Either they'll pay more (Elon indicated they might, if the market value will be higher), or you can pay off the loan and sell it in any way you like (perhaps including to Tesla, outside of this program, as a used car).

    Elon does expressly expect the market resale value of the Model S to be higher than the guaranteed value. The guaranteed value is meant more as a "floor", a minimum, suggesting *you* might be able to make a profit at that time.

    (Perhaps they adjusted the loan to match the MB S-class resale value after 3 years, being confident a Model S would do at least equally well.)
  • Apr 4, 2013
    ohaq
    I wish it was a 8 year (96 month) purchase as batteries have 8 year warranty, this way the monthly cost would be around 700. Ah well...
  • Apr 5, 2013
    ModelS8794
    With a 96 month term you would not be able to turn in the car at end of year three free and clear, as your principal balance remaining on the loan would be greater than the guaranteed minimum value Tesla agrees to pay you for the car.

    Plenty of other banks and thrifts out there to accommodate longer term loans though, just doesn't work for a product designed to mimic the behavior of a lease.
  • Apr 5, 2013
    xtothem
    Is it too early to start speculating a little on Musk's next few week announcements?

    Regarding the Supercharger announcement this is what Elon said: "It is a very exciting and dramatic -- really dramatic --- increase in the number of Superchargers and in what the Superchargers can do. I think people will be really psyched." (http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/05/elon-musk-interview/)
  • Apr 11, 2013
    neroden
    OK, while I have insomnia I'll speculate: the Superchargers will now be able to charge eight cars at once, each, and will have 300 foot long cords, eliminating fears of the spot being taken. And looking like an octopus. :wink:

    Seriously, I'm not expecting much from the Supercharger announcement, it'll probably be the locations they already said the Superchargers would be in, and a minor increase in wattage.
  • Apr 12, 2013
    jvonbokel
    I disagree. In fact, IMHO, this is the whole reason this psuedo-lease has been set up. If they did a real lease, you wouldn't be buying the car, and thus would be ineligible for the federal/state rebates. With this structure, you are legally buying the car, so you can get the rebate, but with this program, you are effectively leasing the car (assuming you exercise the buyback option).
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