Apr 1, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache The funny thing is that he was spot on with most issues except Tesla and Axion (like failures of several US Li-ion battery producers).
I hope he will continue to be wrong about Tesla - we are in a very exceptional position to have Elon and a dedicated team behind, but the valley is full of the bones of those visionaries who wanted to change the world. Just imagine a full blast recall for the Model S because some faulty component from a supplier. Right now, Tesla does not have the resources to do that. And reservations of this cute car could simply come to a halt. that's one of the hardest industries of all and Tesla is against some giants (some of them are dinosaurs, but not all of them).
As for Axion, he was wrong with timing and the share price as a consequence. But the tech and the team are great. Once the ball starts rolling, their share price growth from a $31M market cap can do leaps and bounds around Tesla's [share price growth].�
Apr 1, 2013
Citizen-T It is easy to look at a car company and decide it will fail because car companies are hard to build. What is hard is those of us that were buying shares at $17 because we did enough work to recognize that this one is different. I'll grant him no pardon for making the easy call on Tesla. If I can do it, he aught to be able to do it with all this experience you speak of.
And yes, the comment about how he resorts to personal attacks when his conclusions are questioned is absolutely right. I've been called names on more than one occasion when I tried to present a counter argument. I don't read anything on Seeking Alpha anymore because it has left such a bad taste in my mouth. I can get much better analysis elsewhere and have respectful debates about it.�
Apr 1, 2013
wstuff I normally read every post in a thread so i try to respond with a lucid and factual response if I think I have something of value to add. That being shared I have read only the title of this thread, I quit reading anything that John Petersen puts in print because I have found him to be very deceptive in his data, very misleading in his material and totally worthless as a source of valuable information . Don't be mislead many of you know he has no value, the traps and misinformation will only catch the misinformed.
i think
i have anything to offer�
Apr 1, 2013
smorgasbord Actually, he's been wrong on most things. He was supportive of A123 when it IPO'd. Only later did he jump on the bandwagon. He's recommended XIDE from over $10/share down to under $3/share, and once claimed that XIDE's and TSLA's share prices would cross. He's been a supporter of ZBB, another money-losing stock (down like 75% or more). He writes that Wind and Solar production increase pollution. According to Petersen, the only thing that is good are start-stop hybrids. And, yeah, like it's co-incidence that's the market to which Axion has hitched its wagon.
Everything he writes goes through his own personal investment supportive filter. 'nuff said.�
Apr 1, 2013
JRP3 The problem is he pretends to speak about technology as if he is an expert, which he is not, and he tries desperately to ignore accurate information that's counter to his agenda. But you know all that.
Good to see you on the boards here Nicu, don't tell John you're hanging out here with the tinfoil hat crowd :biggrin:�
Apr 1, 2013
Citizen-T Yes, don't want to make you feel unwelcome, Nicu. Glad to have you here.�
Apr 1, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I got to meet John as we concluded after several months of discussions in the comments sections of his articles that we could never agree about Tesla - although we were constantly fighting, we managed to stay polite for a long time. So I went to visit him at his home to find out more about his reasoning.
As about his technical knowledge, he gets invited to speak at international battery conferences (here is a lead-acid example, but recently he has been contacted by Li-ion side too, http://www.ila-lead.org/UserFiles/File/conferences/13ELBC/Conference%20Brochure.pdf - btw, as this was close to my home, I looked up if I could go: it was about 2000� to get to listen 3 days or so of talks). This shows not only that he knows a thing or two about the battery industry, but also that he meets most CEOs and CFOs of the industry and see where the wind blows. Then he shares his knowledge for free on SA.
I am not here to defend his as he doesn't need that and anyway it's none of my business. I am just saying that one should always follow Elon's advice, to pay more attention to negative feedback than to positive feedback. If we all gather here to cheer Tesla with no scrutiny, we are not gaining much knowledge.�
Apr 2, 2013
Oyvind.H I am one of those who gladly read negative articles about Tesla, to see if I`m missing something. And I agree that Peterson is smart. However, I find many of his articles so biased that they seem like worthless Tesla bashing. It`s okay to disagree, but not to dismiss all positive aspects of a company.
And let`s make one thing clear; top CEOs and CFOs have no crystal ball, and are often unable to see what`s happening before it`s too late. That`s why small companies can become successfull, and big companies fail. I`ve studied innovation for three years, and one of the most important lessons I`ve learned is that management often fail to see fundamental changes, or underestimate them. I know Clayton Christensen disagrees that Tesla is disruptive, but I find Tesla disruptive in many ways.
Take a look at Kodak, Nokia, Microsoft, Blockbuster +++.�
Apr 2, 2013
Zythryn Welcome Nico. I really would be curious about his reasoning. Did you find out anything?
His articles come across as biased and often dismissive of Tesla using cutting jibes.
He raises some good points, but he never seems to consider the positives as a counterweight.
He also seems to have a bias towards his own investments, I don't think he can be objective.�
Apr 2, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Ha, Ha: I wrote an article more than a year ago saying the exact same thing: Tesla is disruptive not in the sense of Christensen, but as Apple was with the iPhone - disruption from the top end! Here is a link:
Apple And Tesla Motors: Serial Disruptors - Seeking Alpha
Note that Christensen considers the iPhone as a disruptor of computers (cheaper - also a reason he could not foresee the tsunami in 2007 / 2008 - I respectfully disagree), but I see it as almost creating a new market (the smartphone market was less than 10% of what it is now in 2007)
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He is more of a utility guy. And he thinks at global scale. And he is right that non-ferrous metals used in the batteries (not to count the aluminum frame, did you know we are consuming 10x the energy to make 1 kg of Aluminum compared to steel? do you know how toxic is the pollution in places where bauxite is processed to obtain Aluminum?) are extracted in quantities that are 0.1% to 1% compared to oil. And they have to be processed (energy intensive), much more than oil.
Of course, you may say that those metals get recycled (not so true unfortunately - I have checked Umicore claims and independent research for what % of metals are recycled globally) and are not used every time you "fill up" your Model S. But they are in some sense, as the battery has a limited number of cycles. One may say that this is crazy, how can 1 in 1000 fill-ups consume that much? A simple way to see that is that you probably pay $500 / kWh of battery capacity (more for the Leaf / Volt - probably a bit less for P85 - it's just an example to illustrate scales). This gets cycled (at full) at most 1000 times (more than 250k miles with your P85 before replacing the battery). That amounts to about 50c per kWh stored that you probably buy for 5c to 15c. Shocking?
Would you buy a 15c coke that is stored in a $500 reusable bottle?
Oil is expensive and became a geopolitical problem because it is so easy to extract, use and transport and packs a lot of energy / kg (that's why we developed from around 1B people in 1900 to over 7B now - without oil more than half of us would not exist - the final reason for depletion of many other natural resources too). If EVs scale up with present tech, metal prices will soar dramatically. And the mining industry moves at a glacial speed compared to the oil industry. They will not be able to scale up nowhere near fast enough. Mining is also much dirtier and eco-system destroying than oil extraction (search for pictures from an usual mining site).
As for the cost reducing in Li-ion batteries, most of them have been realized during the last two decades. A rule of thumb is that you decrease price by around 20% every time you double production. Billions of laptops have been sold, each packing several 18650 cells. As for new chemistries that do wonders in the lab, 95% of them die before an industrial grade working prototype. And from there to mass commercialization, you have to count 5 to 10 years. I have been watching this space for at least 10 years, long before I bought my first share. And I was always wondering why we read every other week about a breakthrough battery discovery, but when you look back, it's only a very very slow specs improvement and price reduction. Now I know why mostly thanks to John and his articles.
I think Tesla will be successful in the short term because they are super-engineers and have a sleek and stylish product. But frankly, with today's tech, Model S and even Gen III cannot dominate the personal transportation market. We truly need new chemistries, that pack more energy / power for the buck, less metals (more carbon, silicon etc. - but not nano tech, we are not going to mass produce nano tech anytime soon). So I remain cautiously optimistic and I know we have to start somewhere, even if today's tech is not good enough - more demand will bring more money and interest to develop both clean transportation and energy production - we have made one step in a 1000 miles journey. On the other side, John has a more static view, he cannot believe that during one decade enough things will improve to make this work at a global scale.
(sorry for the typos, I hope Brian H is not around lol)�
Apr 2, 2013
Zythryn Very interesting, and good points.
However, the energy to create the Aluminum is only half the picture. How much aluminum is used in other cars?
My understanding is that is more and more each year.
In addition, if you take the energy savings in making steel, and compare that to the energy losses due to the extra weight over the life of the car, how does that then turn out?
I ask because I don't know and it looks like you have done a lot of looking at this.
Many thanks for your time!�
Apr 2, 2013
SebastianR Thanks for your post. I think you are spot on in much of your thinking. However, I do think your qualifiers with "at present technology" are important qualifiers. I think a lot of stuff happened from the Roadster to the Model S. And I think even more will (need to) happen going forward.
I'm not sure if I share your pessimism with regards to the resources needed: In real life nobody can scale-up existing technology globally in just a day or two. Even if Tesla would triple their market share every year (which is not easy) they would still need years to be the next generation Toyota. And technology will continue to improve.
The fact that it can work, can be seen in Germany and their support to Solar: When they started the first solar subsidies technology was far away from being fit for scale (and financially viable). Now, solar technology is well understood, technically and financially viable. I expect similar technology advances in the car industry going forward and thus less reliance on aluminum and other scarce resources for GenIII and beyond.�
Apr 2, 2013
luvb2b compared to a gasoline car, you could ask "would you take a printer for free if the ink cartridges cost you $60 each every few days and you had drive somewhere to pick them up?"
the answer is a function of how much you drive.
my calculations have that 85kwh battery at $250/kwh and it can get cycled 5000 times is my understanding. cutting cot by half and increasing cycles by 5x creates an order of magnitude difference. maybe a single user won't use it that much, but the pack will still have good residual value after 1000 cycles.�
Apr 2, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache I did not do explicit computations. I believe in a ICE it pays back, but in the Model S it was needed more for range and driving dynamics, as the battery is so heavy. Of course, with time, all that electricity used to make Al (only a few % of that energy is used to recycle it however) could become green too.
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Solar generation is under control in Germany. Grid balancing is not, yet. They need cheap an reliable electricity storage, which is still MIA.
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I hope those lab estimates of 5000 are in the ball park. But traditionally, Li-ion has been more like 500. Time will tell
�
Apr 2, 2013
JRP3 As I posted recently on SA, Petersen has done a great job at selling himself as an expert, with very little actual technical expertise. He has posted reams of flat out misinformation about lithium ion batteries and EV technology in general, and has done a good job of ignoring those of us who tried to correct him. Eventually when the evidence is overwhelming he quietly works the new information into his lexicon. As you are also aware most of his resource concerns are unfounded as Nick Butcher and others have clearly shown. As for your aluminum example, yes it's more energy intensive per kg than steel, but you use fewer kg of aluminum than steel when building a car because it's lighter, so cost/kg is misleading. Not to mention that recycled aluminum is much less energy intense and the aluminum bodied car has a potential much longer life cycle than a steel bodied one. I'm afraid that being in close proximity to Petersen has infected you with his limited vision :wink:
I'm always open to counter arguments, which is why I spend so much time on SA, but they need to be well reasoned and based in fact.�
Apr 2, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache He is obviously not an expert in Li-ion chemistry, but in the battery industry, which has more business than technical aspects.
But one should also question Tesla communications. For example, Elon said that even if the electricity comes from coal, Model S is still greener than a normal ICE. Just like oil, coal has to be extracted (much harder) and transported, but not refined. Let's put the 20% loss during refining into the 7% electric grid loss + 10-15% EV charging loss (let's forget about vampire loads etc.).
More than 2 lbs of CO2 are produced for 1 kWh from coal. This moves your Model S for about 3 miles. This means about 0.66 lbs / mile.
1 gallon of gasoline is about 6.07 lb. Burning is 2C8H18 + 25O2 ~> 16CO2 + 18H2O, that means 228 lb of gasoline produce 704 lb of CO2 (C is 12, H is 1, O is 16). Or a gallon of gasoline produces 18.74 lb of CO2. So to get to 0.66 lb / mile means around 28.4 mpg, which is average, much worse than my Prius.
Given that the car consumes much more energy to be produced and that after 10 years you may get a new battery, who knows, maybe is not greener. We all want to get to 100% renewables, but this will not be here in less than 50 years. Let's stay optimistic but pay attention to scales. For the time being, coal is pushed aside by a surprise contender: natural gas from fracking. Is it better? I don't know.
In China, where 1 new coal power plant was built every week for almost a decade, is it better to go EV full blast, or small cars like Volkswagen Lupo that may go above 60 mpg ?�
Apr 2, 2013
SebastianR I agree. But the point was to demonstrate an example that in the beginning "did not work out" (neither financially nor technologically) and that it has been solved by now.
I guess fundamentally, it boils down to this:
If you ask if a 1000 times bigger "today's Telsa" would solve all mobility challenges we have, the answer is clearly NO (the Model S is too expensive for many people, does not have replace trucks etc. and its Battery is - while being at the cutting edge of what is possible today - still something that needs improvement.
If you ask if a Model S is a good solution for personal mobility in a given population the answer is clearly a YES. It has the range, the luxury, the dynamics and the looks of a great super sedan that's right for many people.
And I think that's what sets many of the pessimists apart from people who see a potential avenue to solving an issue.�
Apr 2, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache That's exactly why I say Tesla is a great product company which has made the first step in the right direction to solving the transportation / energy problem. But the remaining challenges are at least 10x of what has been achieved in this direction.�
Apr 2, 2013
Zythryn You are taking extreme examples and trying to apply them to an entire system.
Virtually no one gets all their electricity from 100% coal, and not everyone drives a Prius.
I think your numbers are also off. I recommend you check out State of Charge, it is one of the best papers I have seen on exactly this topic.
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/electric-car-global-warming-emissions-report.pdf
Even if your numbers were correct though (and I don't think they are too far off if using data from a few years ago), the EV in your scenario is still better off than the average car (24mpg) and far better than the worse case vehicles.
However, I just realized, this really is of only minor importance to Tesla's success unless you are proposing that 'greenness' is critical to Tesla's business? I do agree it helps, but the cars have a lot going for them besides greenness.�
Apr 2, 2013
Nicu.Mihalache Nope, I have stated several times: I think Tesla is a good investment (and I am in in a very aggressive way) because of the product. It's only when people get overexcited about saving the world that I shake my head
And JP talks almost exclusively about that aspect, and of course the business aspect (risks, cash on hand etc. etc.)
Oh, and I was taking the extreme example just because Tesla did - I was not criticizing the product or the approach.�
Apr 28, 2013
brianman No. Irradiating a continent to save fuel is not good. Spending a trillion to save 1 gallon of gas is not good.
Be careful with words like "any".
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I read it as a poor attempt to bring up "the emperor has no clothes". Trite, overused, etc.�
Apr 28, 2013
smorgasbord Petersen sums up his stand against Tesla in a recent SA comment (warning, clicking on that link will give Petersen one penny from some advertiser that doesn't know how to properly spend its money):
�
Apr 29, 2013
NigelM Mod Note: Numerous posts went in different directions.....
AXPW-Investment-Discussion
ZEV-credits
snippiness [yet again....!]�
Apr 29, 2013
bonnie Because there has been some doubt/curiosity/challenge regarding payments of a penny/view, thought I'd provide the actual fact from the SeekingAlpha site:
�
May 8, 2013
jeff_adams So how will Peterson spin the 1stQ report now? 12 cents a share profit is 3x higher than analyst predictions. Looks like the April fool is JP......�
May 8, 2013
gregincal He's going to say it's even worse than he predicted. His prediction was:
The two big drivers of Tesla's Q1 earnings will be:
In reality they had a GAAP income of $11 million and $68 million in ZEV credits. So if you eliminate the warrant liability and ZEV credits from the 11 million GAAP income you get a $68 million loss.
- A one-time non-cash gain of $11 million arising from the reversal of a derivative warrant liability associated with the acceleration of Tesla's DOE loan; and
- An estimated $20 million in ZEV credits that have already saturated the market for 2013 and beyond, and effectively destroyed the value of future ZEV credits.
When you eliminate the combined impact of the warrant liability reversal and the non-recurring ZEV credit sales, Tesla's Q1 net loss from recurring business activity will be about $30 million, as opposed to the anticipated GAAP net income of roughly $2 million.
�
May 8, 2013
Norbert However, a) those credits do exist (though we disagree with him on whether they exist for a good reason), and b) Tesla is prepared for their *future* decrease.�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver TSLA answered every questions regarding credits and in a satisfactory way. 25% margins by the end of the year, if not earlier, not including credits. Done and done. Stick a fork in it.�
May 8, 2013
jeff_adams I don't get the apologetic bent with the ZEV credits. That is how the game is played. You can only benefit if you sell lots of EVs. Tesla is doing that better than any one. That profit is as legit as any other profit.�
May 8, 2013
ShortSlaver Exactly. They are taking advantage of a tool that exists to inspire their work. Plus they know they will make even better margins without them. As far as I'm concerned, this battle is done. Tesla takes advantage of ZEV but won't need them to be profitable going forward as they've projected.�
May 8, 2013
kenliles +1
In addition they will have them next year etc. to supply extra capital for ModX, GenIII reducing Cap raise needs etc.�
May 8, 2013
dsm363 Peterson has shown he is little more than a noise maker with little credibility. What exactly about Tesla has he been right about in the last few years?�
May 8, 2013
JRP3 I do. The ZEV credits aren't popular with many people and Tesla doesn't want to appear dependent on handouts for their business model.�
May 8, 2013
jeff_adams Without penalties on emission, Californian cities would look like Mexico City or Bejing. It's not handouts, it's the standard every car maker should adhere to.�
May 8, 2013
JRP3 I'm not criticizing the policies, just explaining why Tesla may not want to seem dependent on them, especially since they will decrease and go away.�
May 8, 2013
jeff_adams I'm not so sure they will go away. Maybe the cycle is for car companies to estimate the number of credits they will need for the year and purchase early to get a better price. They may not need to buy more at the end, but the cycle would start over next year. Car sales look to be up this year, so maybe Tesla can sell a few 4Q credits.�
May 8, 2013
blakegallagher I think it is a little premature to think they will go away too .... Now with a real supplier of ZEV credits maybe they will ramp them back up to the levels planned before California decided to "water them down"�
May 8, 2013
jeff_adams CARB kept caving in to the poor automakers that cried "nobody wants to buy electric vehicles. We don't have the technology to produce high MPG or low emissions". CARB can now tell them that is BS. Either build cars that compete with Tesla or buy their credits, your choice�
May 8, 2013
vfx Amazing how car makers switched from "No one wants Evs" to "Tesla is making too many EVs that people want" (of course they don't use the "that people want part".)
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I just think it's the first part of an underpromise an overdeliver statement. Plus a bit of softening the new criticisms that are coming out about ZEV credits by saying this is just a shot term advantage they are getting.�
May 8, 2013
smorgasbord Here are some quotes from Petersen's comments today:
From here (no money to Petersen if you click):
And from here (this DOES give money to Petersen):
�
May 8, 2013
gregincal Told ya so. The problem with Petersen's articles is that generally they take more or less correct little factoids and yet paint a totally wrong picture. The fact is that Tesla would never have made a profit this quarter without larger than expected ZEV credits. But guess what, they weren't intending to make a profit this quarter. This is an unexpected boon that puts them in a stronger position. They are still on schedule to make a profit later this year when it was originally predicted, but of course Petersen doesn't believe that. But the publicity of profit and general feeling of a company firing on all cylinders does help sell a lot more cars, which is what matters. Success breeds success.�
May 8, 2013
jeff_adams An Axiom fanboy dissing Tesla fanboys. Classic JP.�
May 9, 2013
Citizen-T If I recall, some $20 ago JP said something like...oh what was it? "Tesla has limited upside?"
Yeah...about that...�
May 9, 2013
Sparky Quaint.�
May 9, 2013
gregincal Oops, sorry about that. Racing with a full charge?�
May 9, 2013
DrJohnM Sorry if this has already been pointed out (I am the other side of the world and there have been rather a few posts over night - for me).
Tesla have done something smart that has been dressed up as being a good citizen. To quote from the report "During Q1, we consistently produced 400 or more Model S vehicles per week, for a total of over 5,000 during the quarter. We recognized 4,900 vehicles as revenue, exceeding our initial Q1 guidance of 4,500, despite physically delivering a higher number of vehicles, as the standard for revenue recognition was extremely high."
They state that they delivered over 5,000 MS's, however, they only booked 4,900 against revenue. Next quarter, there will be a lag in booking those MS's sent to Europe, however, they have in effect stuffed the Q2 numbers with that overhang from Q1.
Further "While we expect to build about 5,000 Model S vehicles in Q2, some cars will be in transit to Europe for start of deliveries in Q3. As a result, we expect to deliver slightly over 4,500 vehicles during Q2, all in North America."
Tesla delivered more than 5,000 in Q1 with a shutdown in the first week and a learning curve to climb. Produced more than 400 per week.
Assuming that they can do the same again in Q2...
Overhang from Q1 - 100 at least, maybe 200
Surplus again 200 in Q2
Extra week 400
So they could ship 800 in Q2 to Europe and still do 4,900 in USA without blinking.
Add in production experience, and you have another missed (to the good) target.
Expectation management (as with Apple) with better than expected results.
Same thing with Q1 - the 4,750 update number ended up as the de-facto number used by everyone.
Q3 will pick up the overhang from Q2 - the ca800 in transit European cars that will be delivered in Q3.
Etc etc etc.
Lastly - do the math. 21,000 expected deliveries (not built - but delivered) for 2013, less 4,900 for Q1 is 5,366 for each subsequent Q.�
May 9, 2013
fjm9898 we know Elon is no dummy. he can leave himself head room so he is going to so it and keep putting out those stellar earning reports and drive the shorts into the poor house.�
May 16, 2013
NigelM Insider Monkey counter argues JP: 3-things-tesla-motors-inc-tsla-does-better-than-you-may-think�
May 16, 2013
CanuckS#69 I have never understood why so many critics discount the ZEV credits as not being part of building cars. Obviously, they wouldn't get the credits without building the vehicles, so aren't the ZEV credits simply a product of building ZEVs?�
May 16, 2013
Citizen-T Haters gonna hate.�
May 16, 2013
derekt75 Well, you want to discount them for their impacts in future quarters, as there's a feeling that the 2013 credits have already been sold. So, yes, they count for Q1, but don't expect them to repeat to the same extent in Q2.
If I received a $1k per month salary but also got a New Year bonus of $1k in January as well, and then I told you that including the January bonus my cash flow for Q1 was positive by $500, well, you might be a bit concerned about my cash flow.
Fortunately TSLA seems aware of what's going on and has adjusted guidance in future quarters accordingly, but I do think it's reasonable to consider what Q1 would have looked like without the credits to help understand what Q2-Q4 might look like.
P.S., I still think John Petersen spouts nonsense.�
May 22, 2013
ShortSlaver Another beauty from our guy:
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze - Seeking Alpha
At least he raised his valuation to $10.00.�
May 22, 2013
Zythryn I don't see what point there is to it. Why don't we analyze Targets future quarter revenue without pharmacy sales?
Sure, it gives you another way of looking at the data. But I don't see it as big a negative as some writers (not you) seem to.
And since, as you mentioned, Tesla is taking it into account and being very up front about it, I don't see what the big deal is.�
May 22, 2013
MikeC I'd be pretty annoyed by this if I couldn't take solace in my retirement account that has now tripled in size, in part because it's his articles that contributed to setting up the shorts so we could knock them down. I wonder what needs to happen for him to issue a mea culpa. Or maybe he's smarter than we give him credit for and is making a ton of money off us Tesla fanboys who keep clicking on his provocative articles. Pretty sure he's not making anything through his investment skills.�
May 22, 2013
Citizen-T He once said T hat he'd be the first to congratulate Tesla if the pulled it off, he just didn't believe they could. He still hasn't even gotten in line. I don't see how he will be first.
Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk 2�
May 22, 2013
NigelM C'mon JP...Hat. Eat it.�
May 22, 2013
kenliles If I remember, he conditioned the crow to cook on 4 quarters of profit�
May 22, 2013
rolosrevenge Well, shoot, I gave him a penny. It seems that he's made about $3000 on that article...�
May 22, 2013
joefee Don't read his BS (bs = 10 x so TSLA target is really $100) ...he is making money pissing us off!�
May 22, 2013
Soflason Can't believe he's still hanging on to this short-mentality (that he helped nurture, establish, and foster), it's time to just throw in the towel JP...�
May 22, 2013
Dan5 Yeah, he crossed the Rubicon, theres no way for him to come back and reverse his opinion; he's going to hammer EVs until he is on this deathbed, and is being taken to the hospital in an EV ambulance�
May 22, 2013
JRP3 I think I've figured him out, rather obvious actually. He's a very cagey long who has been pumping up the shorts setting up a massive short squeeze, and he continues to do the same. Nothing else makes any rational sense. Well done Mr. Petersen :wink:�
May 22, 2013
rsquared99 Actually, I found this article to be pretty fair for having come from Mr P. His point that this may have been a one time convergence of the stars is probably spot on. We'll see what the numbers look like for Q2 and Q3. This 1st Qtr profit is a great milestone for Tesla and many didn't think it would ever happen. But it doesn't mean they have crossed the goal line yet, just gotten a 1st down. I really didn't think I'd ever get my roadster with the troubles the company had in 2008 and 2009, but they survived and I got a really fun car to drive. I'm planning on hanging on to it until Gen III or until someone takes my keys away, which ever comes first. I hope they continue on this path that they have started, but it is by no means a sure thing yet. Just one opinon among many.�
May 23, 2013
Dan5 Or he's one of those people who is so fixated and obsessed on one company as the right way to do something and everyone else is wrong and doesnt see the forest from the trees.
Poor man is delusional... Then again people who follow delusional people always meet a bad end in both politics and finance.�
May 23, 2013
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Problem is that he previously wrote that they were going to run out of cash and now he's using the "illusion" angle even though the illusion takes skill and not only helps them not run out of cash but has allowed them to get more cash in part by demonstrating that production volume is no longer an obstacle. Basically he's completely ignoring the importance of time to the success of Tesla. The probabilities have shifted in Tesla's favor and that's what should matter to investors.�
May 23, 2013
Krugerrand Yeah, I thought the piece of fruit I had yesterday was pretty sweet considering it was a lemon I was sucking on. Point being...everything, including what's considered 'pretty fair' is all relative.�
May 26, 2013
JRP3 An amusing exchange that will probably be deleted that I thought I'd post here for posterity.
I received a notice from SA that one of my posts had been deleted.
The offending post:
My response about the post removal:
Petersen:
Me:
I guess ad hominem and bullying is only OK when he's doing it. :biggrin:�
May 26, 2013
Iz They considered that "offensive". If anything, Q2 may look better for TLSA than Q1.�
May 26, 2013
Discoducky I wonder what his valuation is for Axion? $0.10?
AXPW: Summary for AXION POWER INTL INC- Yahoo! Finance�
May 26, 2013
JRP3 I think he's stated that he wont sell his shares of AXPW below $10. :biggrin: Maybe he means for all of them :wink:�
May 26, 2013
dsm363 They block anything that is not roses or negative towards author if he complains I bet. I had posts like 'you don't seem to able to back up your arguments with facts so you insult people's intelligence when they take down your argument with facts' not approved as offensive as well. There really is little point engaging JP on Seeking Alpha when you can even get into a discussion unless you support his argument or at least are not critical of him at all.�
May 26, 2013
Mycroft The thing is that Elon said in the conf. that this was a confluence of events that won't be repeated. He also pointed out that next qtr will suffer because they're going to have cars in shipment to Europe that can't be counted as sales.
Of course, when that happens, JP will write an article saying, "see, I told you so!"�
May 26, 2013
brianman When is the next Conf Call? I'd like to start lining up some money to buy some shares.�
May 26, 2013
ShortSlaver Possibly this week focusing on the Super Chargers. There's quite a good chance that other things could be part of this too, such as plans to ramp up another shift of workers to meet some demand and expectations of 25,000+ MS vehicles this year. Just my speculation though.�
May 26, 2013
brianman Sorry, I meant Earnings CC.�
May 27, 2013
moltenfire Next earnings conf call won't be until another quarter is over - in another 3 months.�
May 27, 2013
callmesam UPCOMING EVENT
[TR="class: primary, bgcolor: #F7F7F7"]
Jun 4, 2013
3:00 PM PTTESLA MOTORS 2013 ANNUAL STOCKHOLDER MEETING [/TR]
Location: Computer History Museum, 1401 North Shoreline Boulevard, Mountain View, California 94043�
May 27, 2013
CapitalistOppressor Seriously. I'm actively considering selling my stake and retiring next year so I can go be a school teacher or save the whales or something. It's getting kinda hard to be annoyed at John Peterson, rather than just feeling a sense of pity for him.�
May 27, 2013
Zythryn Is J.P. now submitting anonymously?
How The Better Place Bankruptcy Is Relevant To Tesla's Achilles' Heel: Lack Of Charging Infrastructure - Seeking Alpha
Sound like him. Bizarre comparisons between a battery swap business and car company. And a completely out of left field implication that Tesla is looking into buying Fiat???�
May 27, 2013
Cosmo A message from the other Jon Peterson. I bought TSLA at 36 and I hope John Peterson can provoke more shorts!
-Jon Peterson (Cosmo)�
May 28, 2013
JRP3 He's actually a "Petersen"�
Jun 10, 2013
Zythryn He should be coming out with something soon.
Axion is down to 22 cents.�
Jun 10, 2013
CapitalistOppressor He has to quit at some point doesn't he? He was roasted in his comment section after the last post. Worse even than before, and a complete turnaround from last year when 2/3rds of the posters thought he was a genius.�
Jun 12, 2013
derekt75 Why would he quit when we keep clicking on his articles?�
Jun 12, 2013
jeff_adams Looking stupid is a hard way to make money.�
Jun 12, 2013
MikeC I don't know, he seems to be doing it quite well.�
Jul 1, 2013
JRP3 Still clinging to hope :biggrin:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/296317-plug-in-vehicles-weighed-in-the-balance-and-found-wanting#comment-20561682�
Jul 1, 2013
maekuz I think he is hurting and he will be hurting much more after Q2 results�
Jul 1, 2013
richkae "My thesis that I can infinitely extend my predictions into the not too distant future remains intact."�
Jul 1, 2013
lolachampcar Petersen whoooooooooooo?�
Jul 1, 2013
dsm363 The art of investing is buying a stock at $17 and selling it at $112 and not buying a stock at $2.50 and selling it at 10 cents.
He is a genius.�
Jul 1, 2013
Citizen-T I don't understand how this guy has any credibility left. He's been epically wrong about both these companies, yet still writes as though he has some authority.�
Jul 1, 2013
MikeC At this point, I kinda feel bad for the guy. He's probably lost a lot of money and there are over 250 posts on this thread ridiculing him (not that it's hard to do).�
Jul 1, 2013
Krugerrand Ain't that the truth!�
Jul 1, 2013
dsm363 If he had simply been wrong, that happens. Nothing wrong with that. But he ridiculed people backing Tesla, called them as intelligent as fifth graders and said they lived in a fantasy land though.�
Jul 1, 2013
Vger Obviously, he is referring to the SC network. To me this is the epitome of narrow in-the-box thinking. The SC network is selling MANY cars, and obviously, they priced its amortization into the cost structure of the car. So it will return hugely on capital! They are going to dominate the long-range EV market for years to come based on this investment.
Those who cannot think outside their preconceptions are doomed to be devoured by them.�
Jul 1, 2013
lolachampcar The IDEA of SuperChargers are selling cars. Can you imagine what will happen with the reality of SCs?�
Jul 1, 2013
JRP3 Yup, can't feel too bad for him, he went on a dedicated smear campaign against Tesla, EV's, and anyone who countered his garbage with facts. He's a giant blowhard tool, and I'm just having too much fun watching him go down with the ship, even though it's costing me a few dollars. I've lost money on stocks before without getting the entertainment value that Petersen provides.�
Jul 1, 2013
Zzzz... And down to 16 cents.
Plus looks like Axion will ran out of cash real soon:
�
Jul 24, 2013
mkjayakumar Isn't it time for him to come up with another hit piece ?
I am predicting something along the lines of, 'how Tesla and all EVs have the potential to ruin family harmony', or some such crap !�
Jul 24, 2013
Krugerrand He's commented on his last article(at the end) that he's waiting for 2Q to come out so he can say "I told you so."
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze - Seeking Alpha�
Jul 24, 2013
ppl He already did. Read Forbes piece by self acknowledged friend of his ton Konrad entitled axion power's potential for explosive growth. I will not read it but Forbes publishing this tells me that they will publish anything. Will not bother with Forbes any longer�
Jul 24, 2013
SebastianR Ahh, I was missing this thread�
Jul 26, 2013
ppl If you have time to waste and want to laugh read yahoo message board for axion. Comment about Peterson and company scathing�
Jul 26, 2013
mkjayakumar ^^ Any URL please?�
Jul 26, 2013
jaanton AXPW Message Board | Axion Power International Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
We've got nothing like the contempt for J.P. that's on that board.�
Jul 26, 2013
ppl Finance.yahoo.com. Put in axionpwr in lookup then message board. The stock is now at 16 cents with Konrad promoting explosive growth. What is extremely funny is that Barron's publishes it. What a scandal. My reading list gets smaller will no longer read barrons�
Jul 26, 2013
MikeC Okay, so this guy loudly and repeatedly made what are among the worst calls in recent memory. I am trying to figure out how somebody can be so wrong. The fact that he was so spectacularly wrong on such a consistent basis leads me to suspect that maybe he was purposely spreading misinformation. Could he have been long TSLA and short Axiom this whole time? I wonder which position made more money - TSLA increasing by 300% or AXPW decreasing by 95%.�
Jul 27, 2013
JRP3 I made a similar comment on SA, suggesting that Petersen was a secret TSLA long and thanking him for his efforts. Comment was deleted�
Jul 27, 2013
ggr Of course the comment was deleted. It's supposed to be a secret!�
Jul 27, 2013
hcsharp Don't they delete all your posts about JP because they think you're stalking him? Or some such nonsense...?�
Jul 28, 2013
JRP3 Only on articles that he authored. I can still "get" him when he sticks his head into another comment stream, this was on the AXPW concentrator.�
Aug 7, 2013
Dutchie This is what he had to say last Monday
[QUOTEThe Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
I would love to see his reaction now....�
Aug 7, 2013
Krugerrand He'll find some way to interpret the data as a catastrophe in the making and will come up with something new to go on about.�
Aug 7, 2013
bonnie He's just so cute when he does that. Makes me want to reach out and just pinch him.
�
Aug 7, 2013
ggr Whatever keeps the shorts coming, works for me!�
Aug 7, 2013
smorgasbord Just remember that Petersen predicted that by just 6 six weeks ago that a share of Axion would be worth more than a share of Tesla.
It's one thing to be wrong, but to be wrong by 3 Orders of Magnitude!!!!!
That takes talent.�
Aug 7, 2013
JRP3 Can't wait for the mini-tornado created when he tries to spin this one :biggrin:�
Aug 7, 2013
gregincal Here's my try at channeling JP:
I told you that Q1 profit was an April fools joke. Sure enough they had a GAAP loss of 26 cents a share.
They're still burning through money. They raised 1 billion and spent 450 million to pay off the DOE, but their cash only went up by 517 million, not 550 million. It's only a matter of time until they need to raise more cash to prop up this money losing company.
If they were overvalued at 30 and at 50 and at 70 and at 100, just imagine how incredibly overvalued they are at 160! Likewise look at what an incredible value AXPW is at .14!�
Aug 8, 2013
Dan5 Here's a great petersen article.
There is being wrong, then there is being petersen wrong
High Conviction Paired Trade – Short Tesla Motors And Buy Exide Technologies, The Sequel
What would have happened had you bought Exide at $2.87 and shorted TSLA at 33?
BTW, from a guy who was pushing AXWP and slamming TSLA, TSLA currently has a market cap of 1000 times AXPW now.�
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