Feb 5, 2014
chickensevil Stock is down today, and the market is really taking a pounding from all this QE tappering talk and the emerging market/china slopes. Here is hoping that things stay stable until the 19th!!! After that, I don't care since I will be dumping my position out because I will be using it to buy my car!
But it is really nice that Realist has turned around! This helps make me even more confident in the direction I am expecting it to go. Analysts are still holding out for an .18 EPS, which I highly expect to be much, much more than that. So if the conditions remain the same, expect a lot of covering on the Feb 22/March 7 options!!!�
Feb 5, 2014
Zextraterrestrial Same here now. The interior of the 535 is nice but panel gaps on exterior are better on the S. Driving the 535 (2011) is not a pleasant experience. brakes work good but it sucks that you need to use them.
I think I sold an S to a kid that was looking at a BMW 650 or an A7 (apparently a 'grower' since he said he was also getting a Land rover next week.)
My cousin in law is/was visiting CA(Bay Area) from Munich (currently getting his masters in Austria in business/finance) I wanted him to school me on options some (didn't happen yet) but he was saying that TSLA is way overvalued currently but I think his opinion might have changed a little after taking him on a Factory tour / drive to Santa Cruz and S.F. + seeing how many are on the road in the local area
I'll just say he was very impressed by the factory and its Germanic cleanliness + the layout of everything and how well it is all though out.
Does anyone know what the new building on the south of the property is for?�
Feb 5, 2014
mershaw2001 I am impressed that people continually come out of the woodworks to short tesla. I started thinking that short interest would decrease, but the number of people jumping on the short wagon (can we call it the short bus at this point) seems to keep on growing. I bought options today for next week, 180 strike.�
Feb 20, 2014
chickensevil So how did you do? Seeing as we are now post earnings! You extremely happy to be a bull like the rest of us?�
Feb 21, 2014
Realist I did quite well so far, although I sold some shares at 200 going into earnings.
Bought back now at 213. I believe we might see 250 in a few weeks time.�
Feb 21, 2014
sleepyhead Nice!
Isn't it a lot more fun to be making money in TSLA rather than losing it?�
Feb 21, 2014
Causalien Wow. The day when Realist is more bullish than me...�
Feb 21, 2014
ItsNotAboutTheMoney Realist is bullish on the general bullishness.�
Feb 21, 2014
Causalien It's a derivative on a derivative. An Ass Backward Security!!!�
Feb 21, 2014
Zythryn If this were any other stock, and Realist had turned bullish on it, I would be selling
(Just kidding Realist)�
Feb 21, 2014
vin5xxx Welcome to the club Realist! Let's all make some more money together!�
Feb 21, 2014
chickensevil Yeah, I think the stock price is "stuck" at 210 until people see what happens with the factory plans... So assuming that news gets taken well, we should be good for another pop! I think this is the only announcement that would have the power to stop the stock in it's tracks simply because there is the very real posibility of a major dilution of the shares. If they raise 5B on an offering (very likely), then we could see the stock stay put or even go down, because you just jumped the market cap by 20%! They will need to have a VERY solid plan going forward to NOT have that 5BN offering kill the share price.
On the other hand, Maybe they only raise another 1B in funding, get some money put forward by some of their "partners", and then take out a loan. That might not get taken so harshly.
I am not trying to sound negative at all here on this one. It is anyone's guess how the market will take it. I WANT them to build the factory no matter how they have to do it because it will be critical for the future success of the company. I am just really nervous about the announcement haha!�
Feb 21, 2014
TD1 with 5Billion they could do it without any partners.
Even If there is a dilution than my guess is around 1 Billion max.�
Feb 21, 2014
StapleGun I doubt it will be near that much. Elon said they could do it without raising capital if they had more than three years. By itself that's an incredibly vague statement but I think that it shows they at least considered not raising capital and were able to make the numbers work. I can't imagine them expecting $5 billion of free positive cashflow in a ~5 year timeframe in this scenario where they do not have the gigafactory.�
Feb 25, 2014
Realist 245 sold.
I am out.�
Feb 25, 2014
Krugerrand I agree, BUT...imagine what Tesla could do with $5 billion. Oh, there go a bunch of exploding heads.�
Feb 25, 2014
keithz @Realist
What price would you buy back in at?�
Feb 25, 2014
Realist I am staying on the sidelines for the moment and wait for details on the next capital increase and giga factory.�
Feb 25, 2014
JRP3 Too soon :wink:�
Feb 25, 2014
Mario Kadastik It's the people who sell too early that usually enjoy a good lifeVs the ones that sell too late. Congrats Realist on turning the table and going long, TSLA has rewarded that quite well I think
�
Feb 25, 2014
Realist Back in the 2000 bubble many stocks doubled in 3 months before collapsing.
Now Tesla has doubled in roughly 3 months and made 40% in 2 weeks. There is not much upside anymore. The shorts have thrown the towel today.
We could see a major top very soon.�
Feb 25, 2014
Mario Kadastik Don't be so sure. The amount of shorting that goes on with this stock and the new secondary and other upcoming items probably will establish a good consolidation region and still bring some upside. Short covering will keep the stock up quite a while...�
Feb 25, 2014
chickensevil I struggled with this today because I feel sentiment is starting to get the better of me. Back when I re-bought in just before the January announcement, I knew it was only a matter of time to hit 200. 200 felt safe. After the announcement I was totally sold going to 200, and bought as much as I could as often as I could and it hit 200 a bit sooner than I could have imagined. Rather than selling as I originally planned, I held on since we still had the Q4. Q4 came out about as great as I expected it to (which was why I held in the first place). Now, here we are still out from a very expected secondary offering, and the uncertainty of the giga-factory. I had said, well if the stock hits 240 I am out... Along comes today, and it just blows past 240 and almost hits 260 today before coming back down. All in the 250s I struggled with the thought... should I sell?
Yes, Tesla is an amazing company, and yes I think that Tesla is going to go places both as a company and as a stock, but let's be honest here, this stock is trading 100% on technicals. I have swallowed a LOT of risk in holding out, and I just don't know if I have the sanity to continue holding. Full disclosure I must sell sometime between now and middle of March... so the question on upside, where is the stock going to go tomorrow? Where is the stock going to go when they announce the factory and offering details? I think I might just ride out tomorrow to see where I feel like a good sell point is, and just let it go. I have already had a 40% return on my whole investment since buying back in, in January.
So honestly, where do you guys feel it might go?�
Feb 25, 2014
keithz I found the shorts:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/tesla-enterprise-value-just-25-below-general-motors
- - - Updated - - -
I don't think we're done yet. By the end of the week maybe.�
Feb 25, 2014
Mario Kadastik Well what I tend to do is to roll up options during days like today. For example I sold my March $225 calls @ $24 (originally bought for $6) and bought $265 calls and some $250 calls so that I had overall a slightly bigger delta than before, but the total cost for the new calls was only ca 60% of the sale value of the $225's. This way I pocketed 40% of cash and my exposure to TSLA didn't change. Then later in the day I sold the $250's as I felt the stock was a bit overextended and bought some $300's. The $250 were up 50% from the earlier buy price and the $300's cost peanuts (~$2.6 a piece) so I only used 25% of the $250 returned money to buy those $300's and my delta reduced slightly. As it came out the $257 (after we hit $259) where I did this was a good time to sell
Overall today I moved my portfolio from 15% cash and up 40% on initial investment to 33% cash and up 97% on initial investment (my cash now is actually 2/3 of the initial investment). In addition my TSLA delta today is higher than yesterday. Go figure�
Feb 25, 2014
mershaw2001 From my experience, 259 did not look like a capitulation top.�
Feb 25, 2014
chickensevil if and when I ever get into options trading (I am 100% stock right now), I need to learn these finer points of buying across all these spread points. What makes you decide which ranges to buy? And how much do you generally put down across each trade? Like you are primarily talking about 225s 250s and 300s. How much of each would you buy to spread it out, and why? I mean I get the basics of buying and selling call options (puts I still have trouble wrapping my head around properly... so we will just ignore that side of the spectrum) but the logic behind the decisions is what gets me. My perspective on calls is you would buy a bunch of, say 255's and hold em until they mature and you get whatever the returns are, but it seems like you are taking the perspective to constantly trade your contracts so you are making all your money on the change in the premiums for those contracts. Do you ever take a contract to expiration and/or execute the contract to flip the stock? Like if your break even on a contract was at 225 and it rose to 250 (like it did today), would it be better to execute the contact and flip the stock (banking a 2500 win per contract) or to just sell the contract off to someone else at the change in premium value?�
Feb 25, 2014
kenliles I've found I trade similar to Mario, although with some different timings (usually worse
I was already in $250, and $300 LEAPS so don't yet have a place to roll to
Nice going Mario. Keep up the good work�
Feb 26, 2014
Causalien I don't do pure directional trades. So on days like these, I simply complete the construction of my option strategy knowing that no matter what, I will not lose money. I think in general, the forum is going into euphoria with Options now and I feel guilty helping introduce them to people because some have no business playing with the financial equivalent of an atom bomb.
What I am saying is. People who doesn't have at least 3 years of experience in options and are buying far OTM options with their life savings in only one direction. You are gambling. If you are gambling, it is far better for you to take out a huge bank loan and buy stock than to use far OTM weekly options. Same leverage, more control. Playing options as a uni directional bet is a waste of options.�
Feb 26, 2014
rcc My 2 cents. And note, I tend to buy and hold stocks, not trade in options. Mostly because I don't have the time and energy to learn options and track stocks like I think an options trader has to.
Stock ownership is betting, pure and simple. In the long run, the value of the stock *should* converge on the fair value of the stock so fundamental analysis makes sense for buy-and-hold types. In the short-run, there's no such guarantees. It's all about perceived value which can be completely divorced from reality. That's where technical analysis can make sense -- it's about analyzing and predicting short-term investor behavior in the absence of any real news.
There's something of an unknown between now and mid-March - the Gigafactory announcement. That could send the price up, down or do nothing depending on how much people have already guessed about the content.
It looks like the last of current dominoes have fallen from the earnings announcement and now we're just waiting for the Gigafactory announcement.
If you want to bet that the Gigafactory announcement will send the stock up, hold and sell a day or two after. If you're afraid that the announcement will be a let-down, sell now.
If you're not sure and are willing to straddle the fence (hedge), sell 1/2 now and the rest after.
Either way, if you're going to have to sell by Mid-March anyway, I'd recommend selling very soon. Reason being that I don't know of any potentially positive news other than the Gigafactory announcement timed to hit before Mid-March whereas unforeseen negative news could hit at any time, driving the price down.�
Feb 26, 2014
Robert.Boston There's a difference between using options to reduce risk (e.g. hedging), that is, reducing your exposure to price movements, and using options to try to increase exposure to price movements. That said, I think there's a more important difference between gambling and high-leverage investing. If you've done your research and think you have reason to see a change in the underlying stock price, then I think the "increase exposure" use of options makes a lot of sense. At the other extreme, putting your chips on 00 at the roulette wheel is gambling: you don't have any reason to believe 00 is more likely than any other number to show up.
Investing in TSLA or TSLA derivatives because "they always go up" is probably a very risky strategy, though. Nothing always goes up. While TSLA may end up in the 300s by the end of the year, the path there is anything but obvious.�
Feb 26, 2014
rcc I've got a stupid question: how it is possible to construct even a daily options trading strategy that won't lose money? In general, that's the financial equivalent of a perpetual motion machine.
Is it because there are price differences in different options that you can spot and arbitrage?
If that's what you're doing, then I can see why you're saying 3 years experience required, minimum.�
Feb 26, 2014
Mario Kadastik You expect the price to go up and buy OTM calls. Then the price goes up and the calls track the movement up. You have two choices (simplifying) you either sell the calls you bought and take the profit (the move up was always lower on the options in absolute value than the underlying so if you wait until expiry and the stock goes up further you could have gotten more, oh well). Or you sell a higher strike call for the same amount that you bought the original call for. Now you have a risk free spread because you have taken out your initial investment. The difference in the strike prices is your maximum profit if the stock moves higher than the strike price you sold.
Causalien: it's not gambling. If I have limited amount of funds, but I do know that TSLA is going up > 50% probability (post Q4 delivery numbers and pre-ER for example there was very little doubt it'll go up and trigger a squeeze) then buying options that are OTM at various expirations and strikes is a far cheaper way to create a large TSLA exposure in delta. As an example my TSLA exposure right now is at a delta of 750. At the same time my investment in the options is ~$20k. At $20k I could have bought only 100 shares. So I'm leveraging 7.5x for the dollar value.
And I do hedge as well. Making risk free spreads (I have for example a Jan 2016 $140..$225 spread, which is risk free etc), but for a MoMo stock during the MoMo action the rolling of options is more profitable because I can skim 20-30% of the cash out of the trade while keeping the delta. So I keep moving along with the stock, but constantly funnel cash out and without too much need can take all of the initial investment out of the options AND still keep the delta. That's pretty much what I've done right now. I could let the rest of the options ride and not lose anything with regard my initial investment, but I would lose the current value. So I'm likely to start hedging at some point or cashing out some more calls that have run up nicely (I did sell half of my March $300 calls today at 100% profit, bought them yesterday).�
Feb 26, 2014
Robert.Boston So, to be clear, you can't start with a risk-free spread. You start with an exposed position, and after the passage of time and movement of stock price, take actions that remove the risk and lock in a profit.�
Feb 26, 2014
Causalien Mario, I am not targeting you directly and just used your posts as a scapegoat. I am worried from all the posts from newbies buying far OTM options that are also asking, at the same time, what will happen to it at certain prices. Indicating that they have not the faintest idea about options. This is the same warning I am giving to people before the Q3 2013 conference call, because exuberance is on this forum again and we are seeing the same trend in the kind of posts that are appearing.
But it also serves as a warning to some of us to re-check our premises. Have we grown reckless? Have we deviated from sound options trading?
- - - Updated - - -
The initial positions are not risk free. My TSLA positions have grown to a Franken option spanning about 20 different positions. I have always constructed them to eventually be able to become risk free on either side. So yesterday, I closed the risk of going down on the bull side and decided to let the time premium collapse until expiration date. i.e. Taken the route of predictable earnings until expiration instead of exposing myself to potentials of upside. It's not a Jedi move. I just decided I am not a pig.
To RCC:
It is possible to construct such a thing that doesn't lose money with a guaranteed return. In a joint investigation before the April 2013 by members on this forum, we latched on to a very particular options activity, the options premium skew in call and put, ~50% interest you can earn if you lend out your shares, members on this forum who's DITM call options were exercised early (which never happens) as well as the short interest higher than float.
I spent a week tracing all the options to eventually discover the reason why this is happening and it turns out that they are all related to an options structure that you can do in which you are guaranteed a 20% return. Which leads to infinite shorting and in turn leads to no shares being available to lend out which in turn leads to the high interest to lend out your shares. It was in the short squeeze thread I believe and is quite an epic journey.�
Feb 27, 2014
Realist Guys, it's over.
I am short at app. 258�
Feb 27, 2014
Mario Kadastik Care to give a rundown why you swapped sides?�
Feb 27, 2014
bhuwan jeez, that was fast lol.�
Feb 27, 2014
Realist Too far too fast.
Where can it go from here? There has to be some serious profit taking coming up.�
Feb 27, 2014
JRP3 Not an unrealistic stance, but did you forget about the likely upcoming positive NHTSA report? That will probably bump the price even further, unless you are expecting a negative report.�
Feb 27, 2014
Realist That alone will not save the day. Everyone expects just that.
This is a company with 30 billion market cap in an extremely capital intense business. I've always been a long term bear for Tesla and I stick to that. Nobody would believe that we could see the final ATH RIGHT NOW. Optimism is on a maximum. Everyone thinks Tesla will disrupt its industry and crush any competition. Every good news is baked in.
I believe from here you can make a lot of money on the short side. Finally.�
Feb 27, 2014
772 It's very unlikely, but you're welcome to try.
The fish are jumping in the boat. Are you allergic to fish? :biggrin:�
Feb 27, 2014
hockeythug Thanks for that. Needed the comedy in the comments on this very cold day up here.�
Feb 27, 2014
rdalcanto You might do o.k. until we start to get closer to Q1 results. Everyone seems to be leaving out the EV credits that will be a large source of revenue in Q1 and Q2. Add that to the increasing profitability of Tesla in general, and Q1 profit numbers are going to look much better than expected, and the stock will jump up again. I hope your timing is good....�
Feb 27, 2014
TD1 That must be the holy place where FOX NEWS recruits all their experts.
Actually FOX NEWS reporter sound like tree hugging vegan liberals compared to the folks in the comments there.�
Feb 27, 2014
ThosEM This sounds like a rant rather than a reasoned argument. For example, there is nothing but hyperbole with no data. How can you fulminate about charging efficiency of superchargers and not make a comparison with the huge inefficiencies of ICEs? Charging losses of 15% are quoted for AC charging with a rectifier involved, but it would be interesting to know how that scales up to higher DC voltage charging. Too bad you aren't offering any actual numbers. "Just make your own calculation?" Thanks a bunch. This is less than informative or insightful.
Losses expressed in % are negligible though when compared with the factor of 4-5 drop in energy actually applied to the wheels by an ICE powered car. Could it be that physics and mathematics and the ubiquitous presence of electricity are on the side of electric cars?�
Feb 27, 2014
ggr I guess I don't know enough about these credits. Is there something that makes them a once-a-year sort of thing? I assumed they were pretty much continuous.�
Mar 24, 2014
Realist I am still short.
It's not over yet.�
Mar 24, 2014
FluxCap Interestingly, TSLA has trended steadily up since you posted this. What specifically do you think isn't over -- market correction?�
Mar 24, 2014
imherkimer Realist, I think you called the bottom this time!�
Mar 24, 2014
AlMc This was a day for the 'shorts'. There will be more good days for Realist, no doubt. I can only hope that there will be more 'long' days, weeks/months.....years, than 'short' ones. Longs and shorts can both make money if they are smart (lucky?). From a personal stand point a day like this hurts, but after the mid Jan to early March run up put my portfolio up close to 100%, I have to accept a day of pain here and there.�
Apr 7, 2014
Realist Short covered. Stock is showing some strength here.�
Apr 7, 2014
Robert.Boston I agree -- I extended my long position today. Bargain prices.�
May 8, 2014
Realist Back into short at 187.
Finally sentiment turns to the bad.�
May 21, 2014
eidco I've never shorted a stock so maybe I don't know what I'm talking about but it seems like the time to short TSLA would be when it's above 250. When it falls below 190, I'd see that as a buying opportunity (though I didn't) rather than than time to sell (short). Now it's rising again.
I'm more of a buy-and-hold-good-companies guy so I don't have to worry much about timing. I bought at 90 and then more when it dipped down to 118. Good luck.�
May 21, 2014
ThosEM Oops. I shoulda bought at 179...�
May 21, 2014
Robert.Boston Hindsight is 20/20. Always invest based on fundamentals, since you can't possibly get the timing right (consistently).�
Oct 14, 2014
Realist I am back in the game.
Long all the way.�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil So we have gone back and forth in a couple places about where the bottom might be and the turning point. I would love to hear your input on that subject and your thoughts on what Q3 might be like.�
Oct 14, 2014
Newb Awesome thread by the way. I've just started reading it from page 1. Lot's of "deja-vu's"�
Oct 14, 2014
Realist I am really impressed by the upgrades on the Model S.
The P85D feels like a nuclear assault on the current establishment, more so than the old P85 at it's time.
I don't see any weak demand for a very long time.�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil So, I suspect when you get the chance you will be giving it a test drive again? I know the Top Speed was also one of your original concerns. Does 155 fit a little more in line with what you were thinking about? How do you think that other people in Germany will take the new changes, and do you think we will finally see decent penetration into there?
- - - Updated - - -
That's 250 KPH... but the question still stands.�
Oct 14, 2014
Realist I think the P85D is a game changer for the european market, not only because of the higher topspeed.The DualMotor will give the car a massive step forward in terms of handling. It's in a different league now.
I always expected Elon to introduce 4-wheel drive. But the 700hp upgrade f�r 13.000 � is just to attractive to ignore.�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil Good to know, thanks for the insight!�
Oct 14, 2014
FluxCap Impressive! What are the indicators that made you jump in?�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur Hello Realist,
interesting how you changed your mind.
Why do you think is 140K � Model S (If you take stuff like leather and pano-roof) is a game changer in Europe? I can get RS7 and still have enough money left 200-300K Kilometer or even more as you get 10-15% discount. Problem is that these 3,2 Seconds are cool but you cant drive this way for hours (if you want to reach your destination) so acceleration is not everything if you cant drive the car at high speed for longer periods, real life is not just drag-race. Sometimes i drive 250+ Kmh for 100 Km almost non stop (Sauerlandlinie) is im visiting customer.
I would like remind you that bears turn bulls at a peak of the trend. Its not about Model S, its about valuation.�
Oct 14, 2014
MikeC I love when Realist gets bullish.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan Me too! You could say he's finally getting real�
Oct 14, 2014
Realist That was always my point! Why buying a Model S when you can have a Superfast RS6 for the same money?
The Dual Motor Model S changes everything. The torque vectoring of these concept opens a whole new world and the RS7 will corner like your grandmother's bed by comparison. Look at the SLS electric and the new P85D is almost there for a quarter of the price. Unbelievable!
Also it's a giant leap forward regarding power and torque. I think up to 200kph the P85D will be hard to beat even by the strongest German titans.
Anyway, there is nothing like this. It's like Darth Vader being reborn as a car.�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur Correct me but wasnt there some data for quarter mile on P85D that wasnt quite stellar i.e more then M5, dont beat me if im wrong me, i think i saw it somewhere but cant rememer where.
Problem is, how long can you drive it before its toned down due to overheating?
Anyway the market for RS Type cars is small, its more about Halo-cars.
Another problem i see is that norway subsidies will run out by March 2015, just as Ds start arriving in Norway.�
Oct 14, 2014
ggr There's a big difference between "wait for it to cool down" and "replace the non-warrantied clutch".�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil With the new dual motor I would be interested to see what the new power curve for efficiency is, it looks to be much more shallow than before. But I don't see why on a full charge you wouldn't be able to drive full speed and get at least 100KM... To the best of my calculations you should be able to hit that right now with the less efficient Model S and going 130.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan Flat out wrong. Just pointing this out so you don't make investments based on erraneous info.�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur Hello Johann,
care to elaborate?�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil You know I keep seeing people post this information from time to time and I am really glad you are there to shoot it down with your first hand knowledge�
Oct 14, 2014
Newb I'm just wondering if you got that info right on the new P85D. Here's a quick comparison of the P85D specs to the RS7 you've mentioned:
Just to make sure we're talking about real-world facts: If you go 250kph in the Audi RS7 for 100 kilometers on the Autobahn, you burn 25 litres of gasoline on that stretch alone. That short travel costs you 40 Euro (gas only) and reduces your range from around 700 kilometers with a full tank to 450 kilometers, given that your normal average consumption is around 10-11 litres/km. So, to sum up, the Tesla is more fun, more powerful and much more efficient. I'd therefore agree with Realist that it's a game changer since there's not much reason left to opt more the Audi.
Model S P85D MY2015
Audi RS7 MY2015
kw/BHP
515 / 700
412 / 560
0-100 kph
3,4 s
3,9 s
topspeed
250 kph
250 kph
Fuel cost per 100km at 100kph
6 Euro (0 Euro with Supercharging)
15 Euro
price in Germany
112.000 Euro (incl. tech package and air suspension)
114.000 Euro (base price)
CO2 emissions
zero (renewable energy is easy to get and even cheaper than standard utility power)
221 g per kilometer
Now, if you ask me, I'd rather have that juicy P85D.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan The current situation, where EVs are exempt from both all car-specific purshase tax as well as VAT has no definitive end date set. When this was all decided politically it was said that the whole thing would be "taken up for reconsideration" either in 2017 or when there had been 50.000 BEVs registrered in Norway. Everything points to that the 50.000 cars registered will occur before 2017. There is a new government in Norway since when these rules came in to effect, but this new government does not seem to have a very different view on the importance of EV adoption. There is no official word, but most of the debate and expert opinion on this matter there are rumors that there might be an 8% VAT added in 2016, 12% in 2017, 16% in 2018 and so on. When it comes to the first-time-registration-tax which for regular cars, especially heavy cars, cars with large engines and cars with high CO2-emission, constitutes a substantial ammount of the purchase price less is known or rumored. As long as EVs emitt 0 g of CO2 this tax comes to 0.�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur You get 15% discount on RS7 without asking, and its almost fully loaded, for P85D, you pay another 15K for stuff like leather seats and interior, spoiler, winter package, pano-roof.
I thought the price in Europe was higher for some reason, my bad, so the gap is not so big.
Do you have info on acceleration 0 to 150 or 200 Kmh?
Btw. now the Euro and Krone have lost close to 10% in value against $, how would it eat into margins?
Tesla barely hedges thier transactions it appears, Q2 they had extraordinary earnings of 10 Millions as Dollar fell.
There were no major long term hedges on derivates balance sheet either.
Looks like im turning into new devils advocate here, pass the torch lol.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan I would argue that their hedge is that they are buying a whole lot of batteries from Panasonic and are, from what I've gathered, paying in Yen. So if the dollar strengthens they have less profit on sales outside of US but lower cost of batteries and vice versa.�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil No the P85D comes with the upgraded new seats that you can only get with the P85D right now and the cost is built in. I would consider the P85D almost fully loaded as well given all the upgrades it comes with.�
Oct 15, 2014
Realist They offer massive discounts on the big power limos. That says it all. Nobody wants these cars anymore.
Regarding the stock price: It has come down a lot from 290$ and seniment wise we are in the woods. We could see a nice ipswing from here in the market and in Tesla.�
Oct 17, 2014
Mitthrawnuruodo Very cool to watch this thread over the years. Realist you made me mad in the past (haha) but this is epic. A lot of my friends are coming around with the P85D. You just can't deny that they are capable of beating the whole industry at this their own game.
What gets me is that the P85D accelerates about as fast as a McLaren F1 which is HALF the weight (2,500 lbs) and they have approximately the same horsepower. It is only .3 seconds slower in the quarter mile.�
Apr 10, 2015
artsci Ignorance is bliss.
This is the first time I have read your posts and it will be the last. Nothing to learn from reading nonsense.�
Apr 10, 2015
AudubonB Artsci: you might do better were you to read the OP's current thread, which is something like "Realist gets Real", and relates how happy and impressed he is with the Model S he finally purchased.�
Apr 10, 2015
Auzie How not surprising.�
Apr 10, 2015
chickensevil A lot has changed with him since 2013. He has gone long a few times now and last he posted he was currently long the stock. He is also now an owner of the P85D.�
Apr 10, 2015
JRod0802 Link is here:
Realist gets Real ;-)
�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist Hi there!
I believe this is the perfect time to short again.
The stock has gone up by 70% in one month because of Model 3.
No matter what we will see today chances are high the stock will fall sharply.
We could even see prices below 100 again in a few months from now.
I think with Model 3 arrival demand for Model S will fall therefore compressing margins even further.
Expectations are skyhigh, you can feel the greed.�
Mar 31, 2016
JRP3 That's a typo right? You meant below 200, right?�
Mar 31, 2016
Discoducky Please do what you feel is right. No worries. Pease let us know when your position is placed.�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist 230,56 short
There is a 11% yield in the borrowed equity. Huge demand out there to go short.�
Mar 31, 2016
neroden If the stock really does go below 100, great buying opportunity. Long-term longs can see that the company has a higher *buyout value* (to Apple or Google) than that. So I seriously doubt that will happen.�
Mar 31, 2016
Fallenone Brilliant thesis.�
Mar 31, 2016
Svetlin Please don't risk your money based on this false statement. The stock is slightly down YTD, just like Nasdaq, and it followed the exact same (only exaggerated) path down into February and then up as every major index and the market as a whole. This was all due to macro-related events, like China slowing growth and further collapse of oil prices.
The run up since mid February was not caused by Model 3, as you will find out soon enough.�
Mar 31, 2016
Zythryn Thank you for helping to pay for my new house!�
Mar 31, 2016
austinEV Terrible. We are trading at the long term 200day. The rise from Feb tracked the indices exactly. There is no unique TSLA run up. Did NFLX rise in march due to the m3 reveal too? You are hearing excitement, not greed.�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist I had Tesla shares for quite some time.
I have to say that earnings have been a huge dissapointment.
This is still a cash burner and I see no reason for Model 3 to change that. So what's next? This is all we have been waiting for. There is no catalyst no buzz anymore. Model 3 is here in a few hours. And it's just another car. There will ne no IPhone moment.
I think TSLA could easily drop to 100 again. This is a perfect short setup.�
Mar 31, 2016
Svetlin It's just another car, like the Model S is just another car. It's your funeral.�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist Yeah sold mine by the way.
Happy to drive something real again.�
Mar 31, 2016
theschnell It's not just another car... I have never heard of people taking half a day off work so they can line up outside in the cold and occasionally rain to buy a car they have never even seen before.
It's the beginning of revolution. But to your point, it will take some time and some vision, and the market is impatient and has no vision. So I don't know for sure where the price goes in the short term. However, the short interest being so high definitely works against you going short. Just saying...�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist The revolution is already here. That is the Model S. It is the first usable electric car. Including supercharging.
Still no real "Disruption". Still many ICEs around.�
Mar 31, 2016
SFOTurtle Yeah, sure. That's why I have friends of mine calling me from all over asking if I would reserve one for them since I own two Model S' and presumably would have a higher priority on the waitlist. That's why I just saw hundreds of people -- no exaggeration -- lining up on their lunch break in Dublin (that's Dublin, CA) to reserve a car they have never seen before. You're right, the Model 3 is just like any other car.�
Mar 31, 2016
JRP3 I'd say the thousands of people lining up around the world at Tesla stores to put down $1,000 US to reserve a car they've never seen is the iPhone moment. This is unprecedented in automotive history, and you think because TSLA has recovered some unwarranted losses from earlier in the year it's a good time to short? Unreal, once again.�
Mar 31, 2016
austinEV Couldn't agree more! I always try to explain how Apple is a failure! You can tell by how many PC's still exist, and non-Apple phones. I have one in my pocket! Apple failed, which is why their stock never went anywhere. Great minds think alike man.�
Mar 31, 2016
neroden Realist, you've made bad bets regarding Tesla before; maybe it's a stock you shouldn't be involved with either way? This isn't financial advice, but I generally think it makes sense for people to stay out of areas they don't understand.
You actually sold your model S and now drive a gasmobile instead? You're not normal. The vast majority of people who have tried a pure electric car prefer to drive electric cars rather than shaky, stinky, gasmobiles; I didn't assume this based on my experience, I figured this out by examining lots and lots of reviews. If you're generalizing from your personal experience regarding a situation where you're a weirdo, you're going to make really terrible bets (I learned that early).�
Mar 31, 2016
jbcarioca Why not have a quick look at what Realist said beginning this thread back in 2013. He still hasn't a clue. No disruption obviously does not include the Model S outselling S-Class, 7 series and A8 in most major worldwide markets. Why does he continue pushing on a losing litany year after year?�
Mar 31, 2016
Jonathan Hewitt Maybe he is operating under the broken clock principle? Though currently he is doing worse than a broken clock...�
Apr 1, 2016
Realist
Well thank you.
I believe many people want to take part in something big, special. Just buy an electric car and show everyone how green and forward thinking you are. Showing the world �change�. Being part of the movement.
It�s not that simple I think.�
Apr 1, 2016
neroden It has absolutely nothing to do with that. Electric cars are simply better to drive. I don't have to screw around with pumping gas; the car is fully charged every morning. The heat turns on immediately, no waiting for the engine to warm up. I can turn the car radio on with the car in the garage without any worries. Throttle response is instant, not delayed by fuel injection. The car slows down when I take my foot off the accelerator rather than disturbingly moving forward on its own. It doesn't shake, making it much more comfortable and having a smoother ride.
It's just superior. Most people recognize this. Obviously not everyone is willing to *pay extra* for it, but at the same price point, nearly everyone who's tried both recognizes that electric is superior.
If you don't recognize this, you're going to make awful financial bets and lose your shirt.
(Of course, I could be unfair; perhaps you replaced your model S with a different company's electric car.)�
Apr 1, 2016
Realist To me the Model S turned out to be meaningless.
I was much slower over long trips than in my regular car.
The power claims were totally misleading. In reality it couldn't hold a candle to the i8.
From an objective point of view apart from 0 to 60 the Model S is inferior to almost any other car in it's price class.�
Apr 1, 2016
Gerasimental This is priceless stuff, realist.�
Apr 1, 2016
Wenche Have you set a stop loss? In case at what level?�
Apr 1, 2016
Realist I doubled my position at 234 this morning. Bit early :-D
No intention to set up a stop loss so far.�
Apr 1, 2016
Newb Realist is back! ....yaaaayyyy....�
Apr 1, 2016
Johan Keep doubling down. I'm sure you'll see the 100's soon.
Just remember there's some truth to the old saying "the market can stay rational longer than you can stay solvent".�
Apr 1, 2016
jbcarioca Please don't suggest he should be realistic. We all will benefit from his losses when he's forced to cover his shorts.�
Apr 1, 2016
MikeC That's not what you were saying in 2013, when the revolution started.�
Apr 1, 2016
SFOTurtle Does anyone here think that Realist is just yanking our chain (like has always been the case)? I mean the statements he/she makes about the inferiority of the Model S and electric cars are just inane and baiting. My opinion/strong suspicion is that he hasn't shorted anything and is just trolling and in need of attention, and every time one of us responds to the inanities, it makes him feel important. Pics of trade confirmations and maybe I'll believe that he actually shorted the stock again and "doubled down" on it again.
No one could seriously or rationally say that 200k people reserving a car, 3/4 of them sight unseen standing in line for hours in many cases, within 24 hours is not a sea change event in the automotive industry. Yet that's what Realist tells us, that we should ignore our own eyes and senses and so should millions of other people.�
Apr 1, 2016
adiggs An alternative idea @SFOTurtle, is that we should be grateful for all the folks who have already sold TSLA (32M shares last I knew), as the market has a preprogrammed buy of 32M shares built into it. Listed to what they say, decide for yourself if what they're saying is connected to reality and persuasive, and don't worry about whether you can persuade them of a different point of view.
Of course they can be right, but it's all beliefs and probabilities, and I know a) that I want to be in on this trade and b) which side of this trade I want to be in on. I don't want to be on the side of this trade that says that 200k people throwing down $1000 each to buy a car in 2-4 years isn't any particular big deal
There are plenty of execution issues that could plague Tesla coming up. Besides inadequate service distribution and capacity, I'm now worried today that increasing production too slowly may be a serious problem (people are excited today, but creating a long enough waiting line will sour some subset of people and overall detract from the experience).
There IS such a thing as too big of a waiting list. I'm hoping all the incoming reservations cash plus proven demand the waiting list represents, enables Tesla to kick capacity expansion to a higher level. Today, I think that 50% YoY growth in units is too slow, and a bigger/faster plan is needed (while acknowledging this is much more than a money problem - faster than 50% YoY may not be achievable for the system).�
Apr 1, 2016
SFOTurtle I'm definitely not trying to persuade Realist of anything. I just think he enjoys baiting the forum with negative comments about the product itself and seeing people respond to his comments. Makes him feel relevant. My point was that his comments are so ridiculous, so intended to get under people's skin, that I'm skeptical of anything he says, including that he ever owned a Model S and that he is in fact shorting TSLA now. Pictures or it didn't happen (or isn't happening).�
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