Thứ Bảy, 5 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 7

  • Jan 29, 2015
    uiski
  • Jan 29, 2015
    jhm
  • Jan 30, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
  • Jan 30, 2015
    Drax7
    Cool adventure, love the enthusiasm .
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  • Jan 30, 2015
    Johann Koeber
    Insane mode of the Model S even made it to German News:

    Fast wie bei beschleunigt Tesla S P85D - n-tv.de

    But the article explains that sales are slow in Germany (which we know) and that they need to do more corporate sales (company cars respresent a large portion of the market in this price segent).

    Anyway, TESLA is getting increasing visibility.
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  • Feb 3, 2015
    Adm
    January numbers for the Netherlands are in: 110 cars delivered
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  • Feb 3, 2015
    Gerardf
  • Feb 3, 2015
    matbl
    Sweden 28 if I remember correctly. As a comparison I think the Leaf got 4...
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    RobStark
    EV Sales

    Sweden Jan 2015

    Tesla 29
    Volvo V60 PHEV 28
    BWW i3 BEV 5 + 14 Rex
    Audi A3 e-tron 11
    LEAF 8
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    Mario Kadastik
    Just as an update though the numbers are peanuts in comparison. Here's the last few months data for Estonia:

    Aug: 4
    Sep: 4
    Oct: 1
    Nov: 1
    Dec: 6
    Jan: 5

    Total on 31.01.15 is 36 cars. It's not much, but for a country that has no Tesla presence it's not too shabby ;) There are also a couple of P85Ds coming end of Feb that I know of for sure, but they will not get registered before March so don't know how many will arrive in February.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    Gerasimental
    Not bad at all, it certainly looks like 32no underestimated deliveries to smaller EU countries in his 2014 prediction in the Q4 ER thread, where he guessed 20 for Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia, and Spain combined in December. If Estonia was 6, it's hard to believe the total won't be closer to 100 than to 20.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    32no
    I'm not so sure. Iceland and Poland had no shipments at all, Ireland and Spain had 1 each. We are still missing a few markets, but even if it is more than 20, I think that the net effect on the numbers would be to revise down because I think I might have overestimated Hong Kong/Japan/Australia by a couple hundred, and I am still shaky on the UK numbers.

    At this point, I don't think we will be getting too much more data before the report. Here is the European chart as it stands (I am using mostapasta's numbers for Jan-Nov):

    Europe.png
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    Gerasimental
    Oh, maybe I should have checked those countries' numbers first. You're probably right then, but I'm really disappointed with the low numbers in some of these places. Thinking about it now though, I just see huge growth potential. To think that there are fairly large markets out there (Spain, Italy, Poland etc) that currently contribute almost no sales/deliveries, and that can be tapped almost at will with very little additional infrastructure or business expansion effort.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    schonelucht
    2015 will bring supercharger coverage to Spain, Italy and Poland (partially) and may boost sales. Three huge problems remain to fully open these markets : 1) Tesla cars are getting even more expensive 2) destination charging is nearly non-existent 3) there is no political (and real) cash for the respective governments to offer substantial incentives. Personally I think Ireland, the UK and Finland have bigger growth potential within the EU.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    chickensevil
    Yeah, I think it is important to note that the current Tesla presence in Italy is just one service center in the north (Milan) and a few superchargers in the north as well. They have a store for Rome listed as "coming soon" but it is likely a lack of presence that is why the numbers remain so low.

    Spain and Portugal currently have 0 Tesla presence. No stores, service, or chargers.

    I would think that the other countries in the list that have decent populations but low numbers would be largely attributable to similar situations.

    Just for kicks I threw together all the data for each country into a spreadsheet:

    Capture.PNG
    total.PNG

    The "effectiveness" is just adding all of Tesla's presence up for the country and dividing by the sales where each store/service/charger counts as a presence factor of one.

    You could argue for a more weighted scale where Stores weigh say 3, Service weighs 2, and Charging has a 1 (maybe even .5) weight factor. which might give a more accurate effectiveness of Tesla "marketing" for each country. It is also quite obvious from this that government incentives and all around EV awareness plays a role in the effectiveness as well, but that is even harder to try to quantify. But the key point here is pointing out that any country that they have a sale in which they have no presence is amazing, and on top of that, countries like Finland, Luxembourg or Estonia having as many sales as they do with no presence would be key markets for Tesla to raise awareness and cater to, since the cars are already getting decent acceptance there without any direct influence.

    Edit: Added a total row

    PS: It might be interesting to take the US estimates and extrapolate a similar charting to see how US sales are stacking up both individually with all the other countries and taking Europe on the whole.
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  • Feb 4, 2015
    allz
    For Latvia it is
    2 for June
    1 for December
    So, 3 Tesla Model S in sum for 2014 in Latvia.
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  • Feb 5, 2015
    mumojem
    I don't see any sales numbers for Bulgaria, and I know for sure there are at least 10 Model S's being driven in Bulgaria as we speak. There's a guy from Bulgaria here on the forums, his name is Martin - he's running ecars.bg, a blog about electric cars. I will PM him to report the numbers. He had a blog post (in Bulgarian only) a few months ago about a small town called Dobrich, where there are about 12 orders of Model S (sort of like local rivalry between the rich folks in the town).
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  • Feb 5, 2015
    Newb
    Hi guys, yeah thanks for asking and actually I did the above quoted blog post in English as well.

    I don't have the exact numbers, but right now we should be approaching 15 Model S in Bulgaria not counting these 12 from the blog. So I guess mid 2015 we'll have like 25.

    There's no access to police records to see registrations (think they are paid actually), so as of now it's more of a word of mouth way of collecting information. I know couple of the first owners personally and helped a guy in his order process. He later sparked those Dobrich orders... :)

    He also told me more people are holding their orders for the lack of SCs, but this may change as 2015 SC EU map shows some dots on Bulgaria's territory. Was assured recently by SC EU Team SCs are coming to Bulgaria.
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  • Feb 5, 2015
    Gerardf
    Germany, January 2015 registrations

    57 Model S (+90% as compared to January 2014)

    good start
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  • 1/1/2015
    guest
    Belgium 45 (compared to 21 Jan 2014) http://febiac.web4pro.com/nl_mon_brand.xls


    With just Belgium + Germany + NL + Norway = 45 + 57 + 110 + 71 we are already at 283.
    Jan-2014 for all countries was 260 (or 267, depends on who's estimate you use).
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  • Feb 5, 2015
    Gerasimental
    January UK 'other imports' is 152, up 281% from Jan '14's 54.

    Of course we don't know how many of those are Teslas, and the 'other' category includes Ferrari, Lamborghini, etc. which are very popular in London.
    Still, looking at other high-end, non-mass market cars, they seem not to have improved much (Aston Martin -10%, Bentley -17%, Maserati +84% but only because of the low-cost Ghibli being introduced), so I like to think that a big chunk of that 281% increase from Jan 14 is thanks to Teslas.
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  • Feb 5, 2015
    schonelucht
    Local media report that Tesla has appointed a country manager for Belgium and is hoping to expand. One of the jobs of the newly appointed is establishing two new sales locations, effectively doubling its regional presence.
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  • Feb 10, 2015
    Benz
  • Feb 10, 2015
    virtuesoft
    I went to Brugges a couple of weeks ago. I stayed for two days, and during my time I saw 3 Tesla's (1 Roadster and 2 Model S). There were also a number of charging points dotted around the city. They seem to be taking to EV's.

    In London, where I live and work, I've seen roughly 10 Model S cars within the past 3 months.
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  • Feb 10, 2015
    Gerasimental

    10? I have many friends at Imperial College am usually in that area when in London and I'm used to seeing around one MS per day on average, although admittedly that's where you'd expect many of them to be.
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  • Feb 10, 2015
    virtuesoft
    I work near Liverpool Street, so that's where I've seen most of them. A couple of months ago I saw about 5 in a week. I think they may have been doing test drives around the Square Mile at that time. I haven't been to Kensington for at least 6 months, maybe they're more common around there.
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  • Feb 10, 2015
    mostapasta
    Here's what I found for Jan '15 (UK is my guess and I'm missing Italy):
    Capture.PNG
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  • Feb 10, 2015
    Benz
  • Feb 10, 2015
    techmaven
    Yeah, I take the 152 number from SMMT and subtract 65 from it for 87 for my modeling.

    In any case, over 500 for a first month of the quarter and the first month of the year is actually quite good. About double year over year, and substantially higher than the highest first month of a quarter in 2014 - July at 412. Matter of fact, it is in striking distance of second months... about 600 or so.

    Of course, for Tesla, the effect of the 'D' is being felt with the first P85D's coming soon. So January actually has a full "Osborne effect" for Europe.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    mostapasta
    Agreed. Year over year Europe came in almost double Jan '14. I think the weak demand overall (although it is mostly China focused atm) is being overplayed by the media/shorts. Should be exciting to watch this year.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    schonelucht
    January is an excellent first month of the quarter, but don't read to much in it. For example, the large drop of the euro in the last months of 2014 isn't reflected yet in these deliveries (with ordering mostly happening before the price adjustements.) Also, 2014Q1 European deliveries were clearly manipulated by Tesla for Magic March in Norway. All in all, Tesla schedules per quarter and that's what we should compare as well to judge demand accurately.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    chickensevil
    The other point of note (I don't think I made in this thread but bears repeating), The delays at the end of Q4 pushed some cars into January that should have likely been intended for December. There is huge speculation right now that Feb is going to see a decent drop off in sales outside of the US (and even inside the US) since the cars being made in Jan/Feb are largely scheduled for end of Feb/March timeframe. So we could see a flat Feb and then finally get the rise in March. While there is still the whole port strike issues going on, I believe that is largely affecting Asia and not EU deliveries since if I am not mistaken they ship the cars by rail to the east and then put them on a boat for Europe (as opposed to putting them on a boat in the Pacific and being forced through Panama which is quite expensive)
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    schonelucht
    Possible, but I haven't noticed a lot of complaints of deliveries missed in december on the Dutch forum though. Another possibility is that during the production interruption of the D they scrambled to make some regular models out of order and some of these ended up in Europe in January. There were a few reports of people getting their delivery date pushed earlier.
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  • Feb 11, 2015
    uselesslogin
    A boat arrived in Norway already with P85Ds. I don't think Feb will be flat in Europe. Mar will be bigger but I don't think Feb will be flat.
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  • Mar 1, 2015
    RobStark
  • Mar 2, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    321 Model S were delivered in Norway in February. Nissan Leaf was at 247. Total number of electric cars was 1916, plus three hydrogen cars. Market share for electric cars was 18.0%. On top of this there was 211 plug-in hybrids, and they had 2.0% market share.

    That's about the only figures I can wring from the little bit of statistics released yet.
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  • Mar 2, 2015
    matbl
    For Sweden (February '15): 11. Quite a difference to neighbor Norway. Shows quite clearly the importance of incentives and infrastructure.
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  • Mar 2, 2015
    RobStark
    That is an increase of 366% over Feb '14 LOL.

    Norway also demonstrates the effect of punishing punitive taxes on gas guzzlers.

    That would not cost the Swedish Treasury anything.
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  • Mar 2, 2015
    Cobos
    Well you couldn't do that in Sweden. They have always had domestic car producers to protect though Norway has none (though we had Th!nk which might explain some of the EV incentives). Norway has always had strong taxes on cars since after the second world war. Public support for those high car taxes has always been fairly high, otherwise they would have been removed. That is why the countries in Europe with high car taxes maintain them but the countries without do not try to collect them.
    And of course the taxes for more moderate cars are not that bad, a basic Mazda CX-5 (on the top 10 best-selling cars in Norway last year) costs $28.6k + $14.4k in 25% sales tax and cartaxes.

    The interesting thing about Sweden is as you say the huge increase in Model S sales there. They do have more of a tradition for higher powered sports sedans than Norway has and all the customers in Norway raving about the car means the sales are picking up.

    Cobos
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  • Mar 2, 2015
    RobStark
    I was thinking more about this

    BMW 760Li $325k USD or kr 2.4M

    P85D $100k USD or kr 768k


    US Price for BMW 760Li is $141k.


    As far as protecting domestic manufactures goes SAAB Cars is not producing anything and is circling the toilet bowl.

    Volvo's biggest engine is a 4 cylinder 2.0 litre.

    Sweden can commence a gas guzzler tax for any engine with more than 4 cylinders and a separate gas guzzler tax for any engine bigger than 2.0 litre.

    That protects Volvo from BMW,Mercedes,Audi et al and gives electrics more room to run too.
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    Just a Reader
    This would be quite clearly a market restriction that's illegal under EU law. Others (France) have tried such tricks in the past and they had to rescind the regulation.
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  • Mar 3, 2015
    RobStark
    I guess Norway's taxes are an example of of the benefits of being outside the EU.

    The Netherlands has a progressive CO2 taxation policy that is brutal on fuel inefficient cars.

    I am sure then Sweden can do something similar where small 4 cylinder engines largely escape the progessive CO2 tax while 2.5 litre and bigger 6,8,12 cylinder engines pay an ever larger tax.

    The price difference between Volvo and non-Swedish competition would increase in Volvo's favor.

    And between BEV and ICEv.
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  • Mar 4, 2015
    matbl
    Not really. A vast majority of audi's, bmw's mercedes', vw's and others are sold with a 4-cylinder 2-liter diesel engine (or less) already.
    I think norway's tax is a little different, and it should be ok by eu standards since denmark has something similar. It's basically just a tax on the price of a vehicle. The scale might be progressive, I don't know. But the important thing in norway is that bev's are exempt from this tax and the 25% VAT.
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  • Mar 4, 2015
    RobStark

    Really.

    Ms Merkel's stubborn refusal to go along with the rest of the EU on vehicle CO2 emission reductions argues otherwise.

    Norway is not in the EU nor does it look likely to join anytime soon.

    And it does have a tax based on engine size,number of cylinders, and horsepower. And it also has a tax on the car's weight. And automotive tax and VAT exemptions for BEVs and FCEVs.

    This makes a BMW 760Li $325k and a Tesla P85D $100k in Norway vs $105k for the Tesla and $141k for the BMW in the USA.

    A disproportionate amount of profits are made at the high end. With V6, I6,V8 and V12 engines.

    Not talking about VW's mass market vehicles.

    You target profits not volume that is where change comes.

    No need to target average blokes already buying relatively fuel efficient cars given what they can afford.

    Historically Volvo operated in a space between mass market and premium.

    But seems Geely wants to move them up market.

    And Volvo has already made the strategic decision not to build ICE bigger than 4 cyl 2.0 litre.

    With a progressive tax on CO2 not only does it make Volvo's more efficient premium ICE cars more attractive in the market place but PHEVs and BEVs as well.
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  • Mar 4, 2015
    maoing
    Any member can summarize the Feb. sales in European countries? Particularly want to know the ramp up in Germany.
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  • Mar 4, 2015
    dirkhh
    Detailed numbers for February in Germany aren't out yet. The one page summary that is out doesn't list Tesla
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  • Mar 4, 2015
    Gerasimental
    436 BEVs sold is all we know.

    just found Austria is 3 for feb, fwiw.
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  • Mar 4, 2015
    maoing
    ok. thanks.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Here is the link for Jan. summary. It was 518, looks like in the same ballpark in Feb.

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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Taipan
  • Mar 5, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The factors taxed in Norway are:

    - Weight (hybrids and plug-in hybrids get a deduction to the weight, to compensate for the added weight of the hybrid drivetrain)
    - Horsepower (electric horsepower are exempt on hybrids and plug-in hybrids)
    - CO2 emissions (NEDC rated)
    - NOX emissions (NEDC rated)
    - Purchase price (25% VAT)

    I don't believe it's allowed under EU or EFTA regulation to tax specific technologies. Our incentives for electric cars are general for all "zero-emission vehicles", which also includes FCVs. Though we do have some incentives for hybrids and plug-in hybrids - I'm not sure how they are worded.
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Newb
    The ramp up in Germany won't happen before March (P85D deliveries have just started) and will come in waves (i.e. ships).
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Gerardf
  • Mar 5, 2015
    Newb
  • Mar 5, 2015
    mostapasta
    @maoing here is what I have so far for Feb:
    Capture.PNG
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Taipan said that there were 20 Model S registered in France.
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    Oh, I can hear the bears now, "Tesla sales in Germany halved" "Tesla hangs on in Europe only with Norway's subsidies"
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    allz
    For Latvia - 0 in Feb.15'
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    schonelucht
    You can only judge full quarters for European sales numbers, it's as simple as that. You might want to compare with 2014 : we had 876 sales for the first two months then and we are at 949 right now and there are still some countries missing. 2500 deliveries in the quarter for Europe seems conservative with the flood of P85D models this month. Anything above this number may start to contribute to a beat on the deliveries this quarter (5000 US/2500 EU/2000 elsewhere).
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Were there any P85D deliveries in Germany in February?

    A bunch of the cars delivered in February here in Norway were P85Ds, but an unsynchronized rollout can cause some odd variations.

    And March is again shaping up to be a good month here. By the end of tuesday, the number of registered Model S in March had reached 85. If this rate continues to the end of the month we'll be looking at around 1000 deliveries.
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Newb
    only 2 P85Ds got registered in February, most probably showroom / test drive cars. Most customers are getting their P85Ds now in March, the 85Ds in April/May presumably.
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    schonelucht
    Seems like Tesla is going for a repeat of March Madness in Norway...
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    March will be very interesting in Germany, then. I would expect the P85D to be disproportionally more popular there than here in Norway. Here, you will always have people buying the S85 instead of Passats and similar cars, as their lifetime costs are similar.
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Very possible.

    Though judging by the delivery estimates thread on the Norwegian electric car forum, it doesn't seem like the deliveries will drop off that much in April or May... In the Q4 report, Tesla said that the number of cars in the pipelines would increase in Q1, so we may see Tesla starting to even out some of these massive fluctuations.

    Checked the delivery estimates thread - registered scheduled deliveries:

    March: 23 P85D, 19 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 42
    April: 4 P85D, 18 S85D, 0 S85/S60 Total: 22
    May: 17 S85D, 0 P85D/S85/S60 Total: 17

    (Can you tell AWD is popular in Norway?)
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  • Mar 5, 2015
    maoing
    Thanks for the update.

    - - - Updated - - -

    But it is a valid concern over Europe demand. We hope not only Norway, but also steady demand from all European countries especially Germany.

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  • Mar 5, 2015
    dirkhh
    I think March will be very interesting. Elon claimed over a year ago that Germany would be a big market and was very important to Tesla. So far the numbers for Germany have been quite low (and the whys have been discussed at length). So to me it will be extremely interesting to see if the P85D helps deal with some of the issues. Better seats, better top speed, allegedly better overall handling at high speed, plus all the safety / convenience features added in the last six months... one would assume that this would result in a noticeable bump in German sales... clearly not in February, but hopefully in March and then overall in Q2 and later?
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  • Mar 6, 2015
    mostapasta
  • Mar 6, 2015
    matbl
    Germany will not pick up until Tesla is competetive. Which they sadly are a long way from being.

    1. Fleet sales are a very big part of the german high end market and it usually requires volume discounts. If you don't do volume discounts you don't sell any cars. Period.

    2. Options and feature list still have a very long way to go until it catches up with even mid class bmw (5-series) or mercedes (e-class).

    3. Same goes for exterior fit and finish as well as interior comfort.

    I think they need to be fully on par with the german brands inat least 2 out of the 3 points above before sales start to pick up. For germany to become big market, all 3 are needed.
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  • Mar 6, 2015
    Taipan
    Aren't most EU deliveries in Q1 coming from orders placed BEFORE the mid-november 4.5% price increase due to EUR/USD, followed by another 4.5% late Jan or so.

    And with the EUR still dropping (-21% since Spring-14), another increase is likely to happen again and all this could seriously impact EU sales -and deliveries in Q2 & Q3-?
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  • Mar 6, 2015
    maoing
    I suspect the EU demand did increase before price adjustment and because of new D model release. But I doubt it'll continue the momentum in Q1&Q2. In Q3, with X deliver, the demand could increase again.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Without Germany/France demand ramp up, it's risky to rely on Norway to contribute more than half of the Europe sales.

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  • Mar 6, 2015
    Ingenieur

    Lots of demand was pulled forward due to pending price increases, so many on the fence have ordered one even they wanted it delivered in latter part of the year.

    From what i hear is that German demand will pick up this year, could sell as much as 1500 cars, however margins may suffer as many of those are fleet sales (fleet leasing to be precise) and i think Tesla is coming forward to customers regarding the cost of lease. Many utility companies are getting those for execs, i personally know one that ordered 3 cars for 36 month lease. The leasing runs through Tesla own leasing company so the revenues are not recognized on non-gaap upon delivery.

    - - - Updated - - -


    Lots of demand was pulled forward due to pending price increases, so many on the fence have ordered one even they wanted it delivered in latter part of the year.

    From what i hear is that German demand will pick up this year, could sell as much as 1500 cars, however margins may suffer as many of those are fleet sales (fleet leasing to be precise) and i think Tesla is coming forward to customers regarding the cost of lease. Many utility companies are getting those for execs, i personally know one that ordered 3 cars for 36 month lease. The leasing runs through Tesla own leasing company so the revenues are not recognized on non-gaap upon delivery.
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  • Mar 6, 2015
    maoing
    Thanks for your information. I owe you a credit for China issue prediction :)

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  • Mar 7, 2015
    Ingenieur
    Thank you
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  • Mar 7, 2015
    30seconds
    any insight to UK demand? The recent reviews on the Model S in UK press have been very positive. Also EVs have preferred access to downtown London.
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  • Mar 7, 2015
    Gerasimental
    Not really reflective of current UK demand, and certainly not yet reflective of the effect of the recent reviews, but feb registrations for UK are out.
    'Other Imports', which includes Tesla (and Lambo, Ferrari, Pagani etc) is at 34 for Feb '15, compared to 9 for Feb '14 and 186 YTD '15 compared to 63 YTD '14.

    I guess it's a positive sign, but there's a lot of noise in that. Been seeing LOTS of MS in London though.

    Quick question: any idea if we are looking at the same shipment schedule for RHD cars are we are for mainland Europe? i.e. expect deliveries start to skyrocket in March as ships land. Are the RHD and LHD vehicles shipped together?
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  • Mar 7, 2015
    RobStark
    The latest is the Ds don't start arriving to RHD markets til Sept or least in significant numbers.
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  • Mar 8, 2015
    dirkhh
    It is my understanding that the UK cars are coming on the same boats as the other EU cars.
    But part of why people are expecting a bump in some markets is that the P85D (and S85D) will start arriving. But as Rob Stark pointed out, that won't happen for RHD cars until Q4 (or "September", as Tesla calls it)
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  • Mar 8, 2015
    smac
    Some UK P85D's were due in April/June, but I know of at least one guy that's seen that pushed back to August, with a letter from TM suggesting a production issue for RHD dual motor cars :(

    We have a "plate change" (i.e. the licence plate shows you how old the car is) here in September , and it effects resale. So anyone holding an August reservation would be sorely tempted to hold off until 1st September before taking delivery.

    I'd imagine people wanting top spec cars will just wait for the D versions, and as that's a fair proportion of owners, we might see a drop here in new cars until then, followed by a spike in September.

    The final 2014 results historically come out in early April, so we still don't have concrete figures yet for last year. (And actually won't be able to see if my prediction for this year is true until Q3/15 figures come out, which won't be until Jan 2016)
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    mostapasta
    Final Feb '15
    capture.PNG
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    maoing
    norway takes more than 50% sales again in February. Does anyone know long can this last? I heard the Norway subsidy is going to expire at some point.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    drinkerofkoolaid
    Did Norway take 50% + of sales or did Tesla prioritize sales to Norway? Two very different things.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    maoing
    in above table, 3/4 occurrence Norway takes 50%+ EU sales. IMO, besides Norway and Netherlands, the rest of Europe sales won't do anything better than China.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    schonelucht
    Probably the former because this is not an exception : if you look at 2014, half of the European sales over the full year were for Norway and every single month Norway takes between 35 and 65% of the orders. I expect no different for this quarter.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    maoing
    so Norway might be the single biggest risk for EU demands.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    techmaven
    Yeah, seriously, Sweden, France, UK and Germany better start paying up for all those Superchargers.

    Population (in millions), total Model S, Model S per million
    Norway: 4.9, 6417, 1309.6
    Denmark: 5.4, 611, 113.2
    Switzerland: 7.8, 785, 100.6
    Belgium: 10.8, 674, 62.4
    Sweden: 9.3, 323, 34.7
    Austria: 8.4, 199, 23.7
    Germany: 81.8, 1102, 13.5
    UK: 62.0, 811, 13.1
    France: 65.5, 393, 6.0
    Italy: 60.3, 66, 1.1
    �
  • Mar 11, 2015
    Taipan
    Or the expected parity of EUR/USD could be the biggest risk for EU sales.

    In spring-14, 1� = 1.39USD
    Today, 1� = 1.05USD
    Some analysts believe, due to Quantitative Easing by EU Central Bank or so, that 1� = 0.85USD by 2016.

    If Tesla has to increase its retail prices in EUR by 30% or more, that could be devastating ?
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    dirkhh
    While I understand that this is an "EU Market Situation" thread, let's keep in mind that this would have impact in other markets as well. Audi/BMW/Mercedes will get cheaper compared to Model S. This may not make a big difference for some buyer segments, but might have some overall impact.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    maoing
    Tesla is not doing well in the countries without subsidy? If so, this means the primary hurdle is still price tag. This is only going to get worse in 2015 with strong dollar. I highly doubt EU market can grow 50% S in 2015, at best 10-20% or even stay flat.

    - - - Updated - - -

    good point. seriously, I suspect investors should think about the possibility that TM miss 50% Growth goal for S. If X can't ramp up production quick enough, then 55K might be at risk.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    There's been a broad agreement across all parties to not change the EV incentives until there are 50k zero emission vehicles on the road or 2017 arrives. We'll reach 50k zero emission vehicles this month or possibly next month.

    As a result, the sitting parties have launched an extensive review of the EV incentives and in fact the entire current car tax system. They will be looking at what works, what doesn't, and come up with a policy for the next few years. This is a process that is ongoing as we speak, and the results are scheduled to be announced in May. And then, changes to the current system will probably not come into effect until 1. january 2016.

    Now, what they will actually conclude is anyones guess. You have four parties who will all want to have their say:

    The Progress Party - Basically christian conservatives with a strong populist streak. They are against taxes, and pro-individual freedom. They've for instance legalized the Segway. I would say they are conflicted by loving that there are no taxes on EVs, but hating that the lower taxes for EVs cause other cars to be taxed harder. Also, they don't believe in anthropocentric climate change, though they do concede that NOX, SOX and particulate emissions should be avoided.
    The Conservative Party - Old-school conservatives (though not extreme). In my opinion they are trying to be viewed as a responsible adult that you can trust. They want to save the environment, and their Environment and Climate minister has promised a 40% cut in carbon emissions by 2030. They also want to be fiscally responsible.
    The Christian Democratic Party - Basically feel-good christians. They are for helping refugees, old people, children, as well as saving the environment and the world.
    the Liberal Party - Basically pro-(small) business and pro-environment. They are the most vocal supporter of the EV incentives.

    The way the dynamic works, is that the Progress Party and the Conservative Party are in a minority government, and are completely dependant on the support of the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party. The support of just one of these parties is sufficient to get policy through the parliament, but there is an agreement of cooperation between the four parties, and the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party have worked together in standing up to the minority government.

    How this works in relation to the EV incentive review: The Progress Party and the Conservative Party will be trying to cut down on their least favourite incentives (access to bus lanes is probably first on the chopping block) and they will probably also try to cut taxes. The Progress Party will also be trying to make the car tax system as favourable to the cars their core voters buy (mostly reasonably priced family cars). On the other hand you will have the Liberal Party, hopefully with the support of the Christian Democratic Party, trying to keep as much of the incentives for as long as possible.

    Personally, I think the most important incentives (exemption from 25% VAT and exemption from additional car taxes) will last a few more years, with a gradual phase-out over a few years. Maybe in 2020 the incentives will be gone.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    jhm
    Thanks! YTD 1071 up from 875 last year, 22.4% increase. This is not quite enough, we need a 50% increase y/y. It could just be logistics. We'll need to see how March plays out.

    I am glad that Tesla has extended the RVG to Europe and Japan. Hopefully that will shore up demand among potential buyers who might worry that Teslas might lose value like other high end cars. This is one promotional difference between what has supported sells in the US and has not been offered in EU. In effect, Tesla has offered a better value proposition in the US than in Europe, despite effort to keep pricing at parity.

    I know that bears will point to this as confirmation of their "demand problem" thesis, but I am not at all questioning global demand. I am questioning relative demand where the value proposition has not been fully comparable. As Tesla brings greater parity of total offer to each market, it will better access the demand in those markets.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    maoing
    Model S buyers do care price tag, otherwise it can't explain why sales is so poor in EU countries without heary EV subsidy. Strong dollar and low oil price is not the fault of Tesla, but TSLA investor should prepare for it.

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  • Mar 11, 2015
    dirkhh
    I don't think that the data that we have proves that at all. The data shows that some countries with subsidies show better than average sales growth. It would be a massive oversimplification to turn that around and claim that this shows price sensitivity. There are many other explanations, many of which have been explained here in great detail.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    maoing
    other than competitive pricing after subsidy, I can't find reasonable explanation why tesla is doing so poor in France, Italy, Spain, Sweden blah blah. I agree there are some other factors, but pricing looks the major one. Not to mention Germany, not only it's anti american car but also model S is expensive

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  • Mar 11, 2015
    Auzie
    My take on slower uptake of Tesla in Europe as compared to US market:

    Tesla's size is too big for many European towns and streets. Tesla can not do much about this.

    It is US made car. Branding of US made cars in Europe, before Tesla, was not so favourable when compared to some European car makers. Hopefully more Tesla cars on the roads will correct this image problem:smile: of US made cars, around the world.

    Another, perhaps larger reason is a lack of awareness of Tesla being electric. I think once that awareness spreads a bit more, European car buyers will flock to Tesla as petrol is more expensive there.

    My guess would be that car buyers in Europe would be more sensitive to petrol prices rather than Tesla price.

    Similar situation in Australia, lack of awareness may be the largest hurdle and perhaps the easiest to overcome.

    Perhaps the most efficient way to penetrate more into both European and Australian markets would be to win "business car" market segment, as this market segment overlaps to a large degree with the potential Tesla buyers. People that can buy Tesla very often drive business car, or company car. That involves financing, though financing can be arranged through numerous providers. Toyota has its own Toyota Finance division, which is doing quite well. My BMW is leased through Toyota Finance, as employers pick finance providers for their fleets, and then employees have a choice of which car to lease, with some restrictions.

    Tesla needs to win National Sales Managers, as most sales people drive a business car. Some businesses have so many business cars that they employ National Fleet Managers. Strange job, but hey there are so many of these here.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    dirkhh
    I'm sorry, maybe you're not thinking this through.
    Have you driven on the streets in France, Italy, or Spain? Most inner cities are hard to negotiate in a 3 series BMW. The Model S is way too big for their streets.
    Charging. Tesla isn't doing any marketing and people worry about this stuff. See China. There are lots of people who don't live in large houses in the suburbs with three car garages. Cities in Europe tend to be a LOT denser than in the US. Twice so in Asia. If you live in an apartment or condo, charging becomes a huge issue.
    Reputation of US cars. The Chrysler LeBaron was the best selling US car in Germany in the early 90s. No, I am not making this up. The disastrous Daimler/Chrysler marriage has certainly shaped the opinion of many Germans about US cars (and they are very much local buyers, more so than most any other country - again, look at the numbers).

    You are taking a simplistic approach. Maybe your result matches your intentions (you seem to almost exclusively post in the investor part of this forum). But the conclusions that you draw here are a massive over reach based on the data available.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    MikeC
    I think language also plays a part in rate of Tesla uptake. English-speaking countries seem to be adopting faster because it is easier for the message to get across. UK seems to be doing okay, and I believe English is widely spoken in the Netherlands and Norway.

    We know that owners are the best salesman, causing a positive feedback demand cycle, and so it's a question of how fast demand will increase, not about where the demand will come from. EU and Asia have not had the car for as long as the U.S., it will take time for the momentum to build, and probably longer when people need translation and can't listen directly to Elon videos on YouTube or even read TMC.
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  • Mar 11, 2015
    schonelucht
    I still think it is incentives what matter most. And yes, price is very important : this is a 100k purchase after all. Even for those with a top quintile income, it's still a significant purchase. But it's also the other incentives. For example, I live in a large city in the Netherland and although there is only street side parking, this isn't a problem at all. You put in a request with the city council and they'll come install a charger right in front of your door. (For free too). Win/win because now you've got a guaranteed parking spot right in front of your door. There are at least 10 chargers I know of that are within a 5 minute walking distance from my door. I'd have to look it up how many they have in total, but a few months ago they had a bit of a party because they installed the 1000th public charger this way in a city of barely 600k.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Auzie
    As far as I am aware English is widely spoken across Europe, spreading more by the day.

    Agree with you that the momentum in Europe might take longer to build than in US, there are more hurdles for Tesla to overcome.

    Going after large government contracts might speed Tesla's path, however that is unlikely to work in the markets with local car makers.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    RobStark
    Adult English Proficiency.

    60E2521515C8F3CA275895A843E896B4CCFD2C5728071998A5DD1FD22526F0A6.jpg


    Interesting that Norway has the lowest English proficiency in Scandinavia.

    Given the population and GDP per capital Estonia is a good Tesla market and has a correspondingly high English proficiency.

    Belgium has much higher proficiency than France and correspondingly much higher Tesla sales per capita.

    The one that really sticks out is Switzerland. Lower proficiency than Austria but much better sales.

    BTW I think Ireland should be ranked in there. :tongue:
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Matias
    How many cars gets sold annually in Norway in Tesla�s segment? I mean how many cars Tesla would sell in Norway without tax exemptions?

    I think it is worrisome, that 50% of Tesla�s EU sales is depended on one country�s tax exemptions.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Auzie


    Europeans take English seriously.

    In Australia, we are not as serious about English (or anything else)

    All these European polyglots:cool: are a great Tesla market, they dislike paying for the expensive smelly petrol.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    RobStark

    I think more important than Norway's tax exemptions are Norway's punitive taxes on gas guzzlers.

    BMW 760Li is $325k while P85D is $100k.

    Adding 25% VAT to Tesla won't change the equation all that much.

    By the time Norwegian/European BEV tax benefits are gone Tesla should be manufacturing inside the EU.

    Removing $6k transatlantic shipping cost, the need to disassemble and reassemble to avoid 10% tariff,and maybe an EU-USA trade deal removing all automotive tariffs.
    �
  • Mar 12, 2015
    Johan
    This!

    Either way you look at it it's two sides of the same coin: Tax brakes on EVs or high taxes on the polluting alternatives give the same results: If you want to own a car you have to look at what your money is getting you and here a Tesla or any other EV makes that much more sense financially. The VAT will be gradually added to EVs but it shouldn't change things that much. Also with each year EVs are getting cheaper because of economics of scale and battery costs. ICEs are already as cheap as they will ever get IMO.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Alfred
    Talking to potential customers in Switzerland it is indeed the huge size of the car that is limiting sales potential the most, just as much as for Panameras and the like. Until recently also the lack of 4WD was often mentioned (going uphill on snow). Considering this, sales in that segment are very good. Another factor is that, right from the start with the Roadster, sales and services were managed very professionally by an unusually competent team.
    Perhaps the general preference for powerful cars (mountainous), short distances and speed limits of at the most 120 Km/h on motorways, have their share. Also electricity and power points are not hard to come by.

    Switzerland is often considered as a test market for new car models. Fleet sales are not prevalent (as in Germany) and there is no local car industry to cuddle. As purchases are also not subsidized, the current sales level in the very large car segment could be an unsubsidized number to aim at.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    There isn't any good statistics on the subject that I know about, but looking at new cars on the largest online website for selling/buying cars, the statistics are roughly:

    50-100k: 6
    100k-150k: 102
    150k-250k: 423
    250k-500k: 345
    500k-600k: 55
    600-700k: 51
    700k-800k: 51
    800k-900k: 66
    900k-1M: 43
    1M-1.1M: 6
    1.1M-1.2M: 16
    1.2M-1.3M: 16
    1.3M+: 40
    Total: 1448

    Okay, so currently, the Model S is priced between 500k and 1M, a segment of the market that is about 18.4%. If you had to pay 25% VAT, the Model S would cost between 650k and 1.25M, which is about 14.8% of the market. That's not completely terrible, but I think you could count on demand possibly dropping off by 25-50%. Even if you can afford a Model S, with VAT, the Model S will be less of a clear choice in comparison to other similarly priced cars.
    Well, the situation *is* improving. There was a time when Norway contributed with 20-25% of global demand, but now we're more in the 10% area.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    AustinPowers
    For a start, it is Mrs. Merkel. She is married you know. ;-)

    But about our car taxation: sales tax is 19%, no matter what kind of car.
    But vehicle tax depends heavily on engine size (and therefor fuel consumption/CO2 emissions), meaning that fuel efficient cars with small engines pay far less than gas guzzlers (and Diesels as well by the way, but that is because Diesel itself is taxed quite a bit lower than gasoline).
    BEVs don't pay any car tax for ten years (reduced to five years for cars purchased and registered from 2016 onwards - bad idea imho, they should at least stick to the ten year exemption, it's the only subsidy we get for BEVs here).

    - - - Updated - - -

    +1 on all points.
    Problem over here is, Model S is priced as a luxury car. And the vast majority of those cars here are not private cars but fleet/corporate sales. As matbl said, large discounts for such cars are very common here, and even for private purchases, people expect to get discounts of at least 10 percent, with some models discounts can go as high as 30% and above, especially on foreign and less popular models. As Tesla isn't willing to negotiate on the price, they will keep having a hard time for now.

    Plus, even if one is in the market for a BEV, remember that there are German built alternatives like the i3 or the e-Golf, which are far more affordable, have negotiable prices, and offer stuff Model S doesn't.

    I sure hope to see more Model S around, but from what I can see in Frankfurt at the moment, they are not getting more common. I keep looking out for them, but other than test drive cars there aren't many to be seen. Perhaps one a week. Actually there were more around in the months before Christmas than there are now. But perhaps the P85D will really change some things.

    - - - Updated - - -

    +1 on the size argument. It is definitely too large for European tastes/roads/cities/parking garages etc.

    But more important is price. One shouldn't set to much hope on the P85D in Germany either. Even naked withouth options its 106K Euro at the moment. The market for such expensive cars is extremely small anyway. Factor in the "never heard of Tesla" factor, plus the general anti-American-car sentiment and the "not really popular BEV" argument and you arrive at quite a lot of question marks for Tesla over here.

    Oh and no, we seem to be less sensitive to petrol prices than to car prices, especially now that petrol prices have dropped quite a bit in the last few months due to low oil price (even if you factor on the big drop in the value of the Euro).
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    No doubt that the Model S will continue to be waaay more attractive than a 760Li. But given that the number of 760Li sold in Norway is approximately zero, that doesn't mean that demand for the Model S will be very high. If a bare 60 kWh Model S were priced at 650k NOK including 25% VAT, that puts it in the same price range as a 520d xdrive Touring with some equipment, and it comes with AWD, tow hitch and more space. Most people who buy a Model S in Norway are middle-class people, who certainly value luxury, the environment, etc, but value utility even higher.

    Currently, the 520d xdrive touring is similarly priced as a reasonably equipped 85D. That's a comparison that the Tesla can come out of much better. They both have AWD, at least, and the 85D comes with longer range than the 60 as well as supercharger access.

    The assembly/disassembly isn't done on cars sold in Norway, as we aren't behind that import barrier. But I definitely agree that Tesla should be doing the manufacturing in the EU within a few years. The shipping costs are one thing, but an even more important factor is the currency fluctuations. A year ago, the USD/NOK ratio was at around 6, now it's at 8.1. That means that for Tesla to make the same margin as they did a year ago, they need to increase prices by around 35% (from the prices a year ago). Some of this price hike has already been implemented, and Tesla is also having to accept lower margins on cars sold over here. This will have a significant impact on demand and profit, and the effect will be felt in the coming months.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    flankspeed8
    The more the EUR drops compared to USD is going to be catastrophic for European demand IMO. I lived in Spain in the 90's and have visited the EU about 20 times since then. I just got back from Italy in November when the EUR was was $1.22 which I though was a bargain compared to the previous years when it was bumping $1.40. Today, about $1.05. Some are saying it will go below parity. Americans are going to start buying more high end European luxury cars because those prices are going to come down (I think?) but the Model S is getting more expensive each day in Europe. This is not good for Tesla.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Gerasimental
    Big +1 here.
    My parents have absolutely fallen for Model S but have (un?)fortunately opted to wait for M3 since MS simply too big to be convenient in European inner cities.

    I'm not sure about a lack of awareness, at least not in auto-interested circles. Have spoken to many old-school german-stlye petrol heads who were surprisingly full of praise for Tesla, much more so than I expected. Very well informed too. Maybe it's different in the wider public though? It does seem that Tesla gets a pretty good amount of coverage in German auto magazines.
    �
  • Mar 12, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    I think the incentives have been important, but perhaps another way of thinking about why is that these subsidies sparked strong initial demand. Once Tesla achieved a critical penetration level, word-of-mouth advertising from delighted owners has continued to fan the flames of demand.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    matbl
    This illustrates a common misconception pretty well.
    I don't think the MS is cross-shopped against a BMW 7 series in europe. It's more likely cross shopped against a 5-series (or mercedes e-class or audi a6 but I'll use the BMW to illustrate my points).
    And then it's not cross shopped against a M5 or even 535, it's cross shopped against a 520d touring (or possibly a 525 but not more).
    In sweden a 520d have a base price of 391400 SEK while a base S85 starts at 831950 SEK. See the problem?
    To have comparable equipment the 520d goes up to 515000 SEK. Still 315000 SEK to go.... (~36000 USD)
    What do you get for those 315000SEK? Basically you get electric drive and a big center screen. But you also give away interior comfort and exterior finish.
    Yes, you also get alot more horsepower and performance, but generally we don't care. 180-200 hp is enough...

    So what should tesla do? As long as they are production constrained, nothing. A company that can sell all it can produce with high margin is a good thing. But when an increase in demand is wanted, they must do something.
    With the euro crashing, it might be time to reevaluate the strategy to have the same price globally, most car companies doesn't.
    I also think it really need to do a major redesign of the MS interior. New seats (Next gen seats are just ridiculously over priced), new back seat (possible to split 40-20-40, integrated arm rest, etc), proper devently designed center console, trunk space with options for 12 V power, fastening items etc, and more and more.
    Then add 10-15 exterior colors and 10 more rim options and the MS is starting to get on par...
    (don't have time to write more now)
    �
  • Mar 12, 2015
    dirkhh
    If you go back about 70 pages in this thread you'll see that I tried that argument repeatedly. There are many vocal people who simply don't agree.
    I think you are spot on. I love the car, but to the German in me there is no way this compares to an S class or 7 series in luxury and comfort and attention to detail.
    �
  • Mar 12, 2015
    jkirkebo
    In Norway it is typically cross-shopped agains cars like the VW Passat, Toyota Avensis etc. And the lower end 5-series.

    I partly agree but the next gen seats shouldn't be standard. Just drop the price and call them sports seats instead. I assume they are good enough, just too expensive?
    Centre console, what's wrong with the add-on they have except that only piano black is available yet? Maybe make it possible to order it with the car and have it factory installed? Anyway it should be an option as not everyone wants it (seems like a small minority wants a console actually). But the price could certainly be lower. $300?
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    matbl
    Seats: sure, call them sport seats and price accordingly ($700-800). Then add something like the bmw 5-series comfort seats at about $2500.
    Center console: I have it, but compared to the center console in an audi a6 or bmw 5-series, it's more or less crap.

    Also, what I didn't write earlier is that the MS on top of all this also lacks a lot of the options you can get on the bmw. (I stopped counting at 50) They range from HUD to integrated sun screens to trailer hitch to...
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    RobStark
    Ms is not the same as Miss.

    Ms is the default title for both married and unmarried women in business and politics. It is meant as respect not disrespect.

    - - - Updated - - -

    In reality the Model S is in a class of one.

    In Europe, it is classified as an F segment car. Good enough for me. That is as close as you will get to objectively classifying the car.

    Model S is cross shopped from Toyota Prius to M5 and from Passat to S Class depending on the customer and particular country.

    It really does not matter as long as Gen II(Model S and X) demand exceeds production capacity by 1+.

    And it really does not matter if demand is from California,Norway, New Jersey,China,or Poland.


    BTW By the time the 25% VAT applies to Model S in Norway and moves the Model S beyond the financial range of Norwegian budget stretchers the Model 3 will be for sale with a ~40% or more lower base price. And perhaps be perceived has having a more European appropriate size even if some think it is still too big.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Most of the luxury options that you can get on a BMW aren't very important. If these kinds of options were particularly important, you would expect the ELR to do a lot better than the Volt, but nope, the ELR flopped.

    I think Tesla is doing the right thing, competing on the areas they are good at. This is electric drivetrain technology and IT. These are the things that will allow them to perfect the Model 3, not the ability to make a ultra-luxury seat. The interior quality of the Model S is more than sufficiently developed for adaptation into the Model 3.

    I do agree that some of the options are important, like the tow hitch, but Tesla is working on this stuff. AWD was more important than the tow hitch, but now that they've gotten the AWD out of the way, I think tow hitch is right around the corner: Model X towing ability
    �
  • Mar 12, 2015
    dirkhh
    Well put. I think the worry here was mostly about the 50% growth and where it will come from.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Hopefully. We likely won't know the answer until May.

    And I would say that size isn't really an issue here. You have some city-dwellers that must have small-ish cars, but for the majority of the population a Model S-sized car is fine. (Preferably in an SUV-format, even.) My biggest worry for the Model 3 in Norway is that it might be too expensive relative to it's size. The Model 3 should definitely be available as a station wagon or crossover.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    matbl
    I think that's what I also said... But maybe it was lost in my rant. ;)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Size of the car isn't a problem in Sweden either. But after driving my previous BMW 5-series in small towns in france I won't be taking my MS there any time soon...
    As for Model 3, my fear is that it will be too small.

    - - - Updated - - -

    In my opinion the interior of the MS (obviously except for the screen) is worse than my 2003 saab and the base price of the saab was a quarter of the MS.
    I'm not talking ultra-luxury. I'm talking something I had on an entry level 5-series BMW.
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  • Mar 12, 2015
    kenliles
    I think it matters to Elon- which means it matters...
    decisions are made forward in time...
    �
  • Mar 12, 2015
    RobStark

    A BMW 316i starts $49k in Norway but will be way underpowered vs the base Model 3.

    A BMW 328i starts at $76k.

    Even with transatlatic shipping I think Tesla will be ok as long as the Kroner/Euro does not collapse.

    If they do then Tesla needs to manufacture in Europe ASAP.

    Again a station wagon is not in the cards but a crossover(Model Y?) should appear shortly after the liftback sedan.

    Do you think a full size pickup that starts at $50k in the US plus $6k shipping plus Norwegian taxes would sell in reasonable numbers in Norway? Any wealthy Norwegians with Walker Texas Ranger fantasies?
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