Sep 1, 2016
GoTslaGo Maybe it's time to get Ms. Vestagers involved!? Wrong authority I know...
***duck and run from all the Apple fans and investors****
Wait, I'm typing this on an IPad, I'm invested in AAPL ...
I'll just go flog myself in the corner for suggesting that...
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Sep 1, 2016
Cobos Yeah I find this very strange, especially since Tesla has earlier said that the base price should be about the same in every country? Smaller differences upto about a 1000� makes sense since the cost of selling a car is slightly different in different European countries but this big a difference??
Cobos�
Sep 2, 2016
schonelucht A few countries already reported so we have some official numbers :
Norway : 170 Model S (up from 156 last quarter, down from 220 last year), 168 Model X
the Netherlands : 129 Model S (up from 30 last quarter, down from 131 last year), 25 Model X
Sweden : 49 Model S (up from 24 last quarter, down from 100 last year), 9 Model X
Austria : 53 cars. (up from 15 last quarter and 33 last year). Anyone have any color on the distribution X versus S in Austria? Is 43/10 reasonable?
Finland : 4 cars (down from 6 last quarter and 11 last year). Again no indication on the distribution X versus S. Is it reasonable to take these 4 all as Model S?
Generally August shapes up to be a much better month than May or July, even just on the Model S's. I am estimating between 700 and 1200 Model S's and 300 Model X's. That means we won't beat last year's August on the Model S alone but we will when combining both models.�
Sep 2, 2016
Lesifass Germany: 171 cars (up from 53 in May/last quarter and 130 last year)�
Sep 2, 2016
schonelucht Can you submit this for the wikipost?�
Sep 2, 2016
Lesifass Submitted now (I wasn't sure if I should wait until S/X numbers are available, since the form says "next update sept 5").�
Sep 2, 2016
schonelucht Belgium (S+X) is 83 for the month, up from 9 last quarter and exactly equal to 83 last year.�
Sep 2, 2016
TMSE What is your estimate on total SX deliveries in Europe for Q3?�
Sep 2, 2016
schonelucht We are currently at 800 something reported. No Model X deliveries are expected in Europe's largest market lately (UK) so that eliminates one source of a potential upside, really leaving only Switzerland as a potential surprise. So 1200 if CH doesn't deliver, otherwise up to 1400. That puts the full quarter to date to 1800. Assuming September at least doubles that once more we could potentially look at 4000 to 5000 deliveries for the full Q3. No refunds if I am wrong.�
Sep 2, 2016
TMSE Thanks. Do we have any estimates for Asia pacific?�
Sep 6, 2016
Just a Reader Nothing to prevent you from buying a Tesla in France, is there?�
Sep 6, 2016
AustinPowers Actually that is something I would ask Tesla store personnel when the situation arises with Model 3.
I have read quite a few articles about a new trend of people from Germany (especially in the regions bordering on France) buying BEVs at bargain basement prices because of the French subsidies.
Works like this: French dealer sells the car to a French middleman who then keeps it for half a year. After that the middleman sells the car to the German customer and can still keep his incentive money - and use the same scheme again and again on more vehicles. Strange that the French government hasn't closed this loophole.�
Sep 7, 2016
AustinPowers By the way, that is 140 Model S (up 10 from Aug 2015) and 31 Model X (up 31, obviously�
Sep 8, 2016
Troy Hi, everybody. The UK Q2 2016 numbers were published today on gov.uk website HERE and they are a little lower than expected. My estimate was 652 units for Q2. It turned out to be 501 units. To summarize:
2016 UK Deliveries:
Q1 2016 = 762 (It was 205 last year. Increased 272%)
Q2 2016 = 501 (It was 144 last year. Increased 248%)
1H 2016 = 1263 (It was 349 last year. Increased 262%)
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Sep 8, 2016
schonelucht Excellent, that still makes the UK the strongest European market in the EU for the first half of 2016. There's clearly a lot of demand for Tesla, it's just that the ramp happened a little later than elsewhere due to the particularities of the UK car market. Still looking for a little over 200 cars for this month with Italy and Switzerland remaining to make it to my lower estimated bound of 1200. That's perfectly doable.
Meanwhile, Norway has delivered it's first boatload of cars for September : 75 Model X and 28 Model S. While the X number is encouraging, the S is disappointing. Hopefully they'll receive another 2-3 ships to also bring up the S deliveries for the month to a strong showing.
One thing we should however be aware of : the numbers we count also include inventory and therefore do not directly translate to deliveries. For example, out of last month's 170 Model S registrations in Norway, at least 25 are inventory cars. It's pretty easy to spot if you look at the detailed registrations. For comparison : this month (so far) and July do not show Norwegian inventory cars being registered, while June had quite a few of them once more.�
Sep 8, 2016
Wenche 91 Model X and 37 Model S, as we speak. I expect my own Model X to be delivered in the second half of the month.
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge�
Sep 9, 2016
schonelucht Switzerland delivered 89 Model S in August, up 59 from last quarter but down from 155 last year. There were also 39 Model X deliveries.
We are still waiting for Italy, but it's not a traditionally important market. Totals will be very close to 850 Model S (up from 529 last quarter, down from 1097 last year) and 300 Model X.�
Sep 9, 2016
bonaire Are Europe delivery totals down for Q3 versus Q3-2015 even including Model X? Have you discovered where the 5150 cars in transit went? I have to assume that the number included inventory/demo/loaner cars being placed to replace old sales of the prior loaners. We did see a large number of MS and MX inventory show up in July and August both in USA and Europe.
Norway so far in Sept is 107 MX and 39 MS. This is "ok" and shows deliveries of MX but not enough to showcase details of where 5150 were sent.�
Sep 9, 2016
PaulRocket How many cars were delivered in Q2 in Europe?�
Sep 9, 2016
Spidy One things that's interesting is that as far as I know Tesla still has not adjusted prices for the UK after the pound drop.
2954
60 of those were X
Tesla Europe Registration Stats�
Sep 9, 2016
bonaire 2016 - 2954 in Q2 (incl. 60 MX)
2015 - 3904 in Q2
2014 - 2519 in Q2
2013 - 0 in Q2�
Sep 9, 2016
PaulRocket Wait a minute does this mean they only delivered 1208 cars to Asia in Q2? They delivered 14402 cars worldwide in Q2, according to InsideEvs they delivered 10240 cars to the US, then 2954 cars to Europe which means deliveries to Asia must be 1208?! Seems very low.�
Sep 9, 2016
Spidy Well, this chart from 3 different sources seems to come to a similar low number. 3287 for January to July.
China Electric Car Sales Up 188%, Still Dominated By BYD�
Sep 9, 2016
schonelucht There is no trace of those 5150 in the European deliveries. If they were inventory they'd show up as well because the numbers we count here are car registrations. For example 141764 is listed as inventory in Norway on Tesla website and was registered there in August. But then again, we know some weird stuff did show up : for example search for '14577' in Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge and you can quite clearly see the range of 10 consecutive cars going to Oslo. The range extends to '14578' or '14582' as well. Maybe a big fleet buy? Or inventory?
See above. For Europe, inventory delivered is also counted as a new registration. So real customer deliveries are possibly lower, especially in Q2 because they had to refresh their demo/loaner cars with the new facelift. @bonaire probably has better accounting on just how much inventory was delivered in Q2, but I would not be surprised if it was 500 cars for Europe alone.�
Sep 9, 2016
Troy @PaulRocket,
Because Tesla published their USA numbers for 2014 and 2015 (HERE) and we already had global and Europe numbers, that made it possible to calculate accurate numbers for Asia/Pacific for 2014 and 2015.
Asia/Pacific Q2 2014 = 782 units
Asia/Pacific Q2 2015 = 1293 units
This is very useful because we don't have 2016 USA numbers but we still have global and Europe numbers. That means if one can guess Asia/Pacific, it will possible to calculate North America. Looking at those numbers above, my guess for APAC Q2 is 1808 units. Based on that, I would calculate the rest as follows for Q2 2016:
APAC = 1808 (Estimate)
Global = 14,402
Europe = 3106
North America = 14402 - 3106 - 1808 = 9488
Canada = 366 (Estimate)
USA = 9488 - 366 = 9122
By the way, if you open the wiki topic and scroll down, you can see a summary of continents. Click on the link that says more info for details, or just click HERE.
@mostapasta,
Thanks for the new data source for Italy. I have added it to the wiki tables. This is now our main data source for Italy.�
Sep 9, 2016
PaulRocket Thanks! Very interesting. So anyone have any guesses, on what the number of delivered vehicles for Q3 might be? At the moment they delivered about 1700 cars in July and August, correct?�
Sep 9, 2016
Troy In the wiki above the blue Model S table, there are links to 2013, 2014, 2015 numbers. Let me copy those here:
Model S Europe deliveries: 2013, 2014, 2015
Looking at 2015 numbers, my best guess for Q3 2016 Europe is 3517 * 1783/2273 = 2,759 units.
3517 = Q3 2015 Tesla Europe sales
1783 = Jul, Aug 2016 Tesla Europe sales
2273 = Jul, Aug 2015 Tesla Europe sales�
Sep 9, 2016
schonelucht My guess it is going to be a higher. Last year August was when they tried their very short lived experiment of not caring for end-of-quarter numbers and having an even delivery path over the quarter. That's been long forgotten and the last month is once again the most important of them all. So I think last quarter is a better comparison. Taking into account that May was unnaturally depressed due to April production issues. So I think a little over what they have already delivered this month. 3500 to 4000.�
Sep 9, 2016
bonaire Q3 starts July 1st - if the batching for boat and train shipments were not done and an even distribution of cars made for all continents were produced, then every month would be roughly the same deliveries. Rushing to do 2x in Sept over August is insane and not sustainable - the employees probably hate the pushes and would enjoy smooth workdays. Unless they are paid overtime for the 3rd month of a quarter...�
Sep 9, 2016
PaulRocket Don't you think Elons email might mean employees are under a lot of pressure to deliver a lot of cars and they are really trying to get at least to Non-GAAP profitabile�
Sep 9, 2016
mostapasta @Troy
Use the following spreadsheet for Canada registrations ("CDN EV#s" tab):
Canadian EV sales
The owner posts Polk registration data, but unfortunately only for Canada (US is still an estimate).
Canada
2014: 847
2015: 2010
2016YTD: 1180 (898 S 282 X)�
Sep 9, 2016
bonaire PaulR - the email said "GAAP profits" - which is going to mean non-GAAP profits are "much higher". Next thing is that various people here keep mentioning their DS is on vacation lately. There is an accounting method to help with profits by getting people to take vacation days within a period in order to lower the vacation liability of a firm - but if there is a need to deliver so much, why are the DS on vacation? Maybe it is a vacation ahead of the end of quarter rush. Usually first week of a new quarter is slower (best time for vacationing).�
Sep 9, 2016
Model 3 "If anyone are thinking about a vacation/a few days of - take it in August, no vacations/free days is allowed in Sept for anyone working on deliveries!" - or something like that.�
Sep 9, 2016
Mario Kadastik Talked to a friend who works in Tesla HQ in EU about probability of getting my X next Wed when in Amsterdam and while discussing he mentioned that there's some uncertainty as they just got dumped by a major load of cars. They thought august was the spike this Q based on how many they got, but boy were they wrong and they are allocating everyone and their friends to Tilburg starting next week to help out with deliveries (like finance people etc). There are sooo many cars just off ships that they were really baffled by what the push is in Q3.
Oh and my car probably is ready for delivery a few days too late for me to pick up myself, but they still try to get it done through this huge queue�
Sep 10, 2016
Yggdrasill It isn't a very good way to calculate, as Model X volume deliveries hadn't really gotten started in July. Thus far in September in Norway, the Model X is leading with 142 to 47 Model S. That means Model X deliveres is exceeding 75% of the volume.
I think Q3 deliveries in Norway will be at least 850 cars. Maybe even over 1000.�
Sep 10, 2016
PaulRocket Very interesting, thanks for sharing. I'm guessing 4,000-5,000 cars in Europe for Q3.�
Sep 10, 2016
bonaire We'll be watching to see if the cars show up as inventory scatter around Europe or are Customers' cars (may be mix). I assume lots of Model X fulfillment.
Norway - thru 9/9 - 142 MX and 47 MS. Not sure they hit 1000 but MX is helping.�
Sep 10, 2016
Mario Kadastik The cara have recently arrived and the extra manpower is planned for end of next week onwards. My car is part of the large delivery and is now expected 19.09 ready for delivery...�
Sep 10, 2016
PaulRocket Interesting! Keep us updated, especially what the situation is like when you take delivery. How many other cars are delivered on the same day, etc. maybe you could ask your DS some questions regarding the large shipment when you take delivery.�
1/1/2015
guest Any updates on Norway? Anyone close to the Tilburg factory? Anyone noticed a large number of cars on trucks or at the local SC?�
1/1/2015
guest You can keep up to date here (it seems to be functioning correctly now): Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
Norway is up to 55 Model S and 166 Model X. With 221 registered and 8 out of 22 business days behind us, if this rate of registrations continues, we'll reach 607 cars in September (1011 cars in Q3), so it's not looking too bad. (Though if Tesla has timed the shipments correctly, there probably won't be very many registrations for the last ~3 business days. After the car is registered it takes a couple of days to deliver the car.)
Usually there's also a bit of a registration frenzy for a week before it's too late to register new cars, so we just don't know yet how good this month will be. (We should look for signs of ramping registrations around the 20th. If so, this quarter could exceed 1000 by a good margin.)�
1/1/2015
guest Thanks! Very helpful�
1/1/2015
guest I have created a poll on Q3 delivery. Please share your estimates: Q3'16 Delivery Estimates�
1/1/2015
guest Any updates for Europe?�
1/1/2015
guest We need a European Trip Chowdry camping outside the Tilburg facility monitoring vehicles arriving from the States and departing to their destinations in all of Europe�
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