Thứ Bảy, 5 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 18

  • Apr 3, 2016
    Yggdrasill
    Here's an up to date overview of each oil field in Norway: Oljekartet (Size = volume, and it describes the profit per barrel at the current oil price.)
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  • Apr 3, 2016
    Yggdrasill
    True, but it remains to be seen whether we will have a price increase. The NOK has strengthened as the oil price has increased over the last few weeks. Now it's at 8.31 when it was at 8.7 before. The exchange rate for a S70D is 8.42, and the exchange rate for a X70D is 8.86.

    That means that the price in the US can increase by around 1000 USD for the S70D and about 5000 USD for the X70D and Tesla wouldn't need to increase the price in NOK.
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  • Apr 4, 2016
    Benz
    The Netherlands:
    March 2015: 371
    Q1 2015: 521

    Source: RaiVereniging
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  • Apr 4, 2016
    hirox
    Do you mean 2016?
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  • Apr 6, 2016
    RobStark
  • Apr 6, 2016
    adiggs
    Ouchies - that has to sting in certain quarters :)
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  • Apr 7, 2016
    AustinPowers
    True. And honestly, I was always one of the first to be defending German carmakers. But even I have an ever harder time understanding what is going on in those corporate board rooms. As if Dieselgate wasn't enough to show them. And MB in particular. WTF? Pouring another 3 billion into improving Diesel engines? For that much money they could engineer (of that I am absolutely certain) a compelling full BEV version of at least the C-, E- and S-class.

    Take the new E-class. I have just yesterday gotten their latest marketing brochure for it. Mentions a lot of how intelligent the new E-class is supposed to be. Intelligent navigation, half-autonomous driving, autonomous self-parking, online functionality.
    Come to think of it, I think I know a car (well, two actually, but Model X is not yet on our roads - except for one by now well-known example ;)) that can do all that, and more. Plus, it's fully electric. Care to guess which one it is? :p

    I wonder whether the success of Model 3 will force them to finally "see the light" of what ever more customers (including me) really want.
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  • Apr 7, 2016
    Spidy
    What's going on is that they are actually not losing that many sales. Denmark? Norway? Not markets they ever cared about the sales of their top luxury cars. Talk to people in the Germany or European forum most of them aren't customers of that market either. Sure they might be losing a few E-Class sales, but that's a Segment where they are selling 2000 cars a month.

    Because it's not just about building a car, but selling it with a profit. Putting a battery in the E-Class would probably put it in the price range of the S-Class something the majority of E-Class buyers can't afford.
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  • Apr 7, 2016
    WarpedOne
    So, how will tesla manage to do it?
    I.e. not sell 15k car for 35k?
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  • Apr 7, 2016
    Benz
    Yes, I meant 2016.
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  • Apr 7, 2016
    RobStark
    So Mercedes,BMW and Audi will write off the Nordic and Benelux countries plus Switzerland?
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  • Apr 7, 2016
    30seconds
    Keep It Simple. Modern cars are a whole mess of systems as each is made by different suppliers often with their own control system and profit margins. If tesla can continue to reduce the complexity of their cars. Then they will be able to spend more on design and execution of handling and interior, I think the two areas (along with exterior) where you pick up on price points the most.
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  • Apr 9, 2016
    dc_h
    Don't forget Germany.
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  • Apr 12, 2016
    schonelucht
    European prices increased 5 to 10%
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  • Apr 12, 2016
    Yggdrasill
    Yeah, much more of an increase than I was expecting. On the up side, margins in Europe should be as good as, if not better than the margins in the US.

    Here are current prices in Norway compared to the US, with a NOK exchange rate of 8.17:

    Norway
    70: 77,150 USD
    70D: 82,200 USD
    90D: 95,500 USD
    P90D: 115,700 USD
    Maxed out: 154,250 USD

    USA
    70: 72,700 USD
    70D: 77,700 USD
    90D: 90,700 USD
    P90D: 110,700 USD
    Maxed out: 147,500 USD

    After playing around with the numbers a bit, I think that when Tesla set the pricing, they first added 4000 USD in shipping costs and the like, and then they applied an 8.25 exchange rate. If the additional costs for selling in Europe are 4000 USD, Tesla is currently making a few hundred dollars extra on each car, with the exchange rate being at 8.16 instead of 8.25.
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  • Apr 12, 2016
    schonelucht
    With the refresh European maximum charging rate for AC went down. Standard is 11kW (pre and post refresh). Pre refresh there was the 'dual charger option' for a rate of 22kW. Post refresh customers can order an 'upgraded internal charger' with a 16.5kW charging rate. All in all a good update to receive for those who'd order anyway but I don't feel like there is enough substance to drive many new additional European orders like the dual motors and the 90kWh refreshes had.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    Yggdrasill
    I agree there's not much here to increase demand. Probably the most important change is the headlights. To some degree also the nose. But these changes are more than nulled out by the price hike.

    I was hoping for tow hitch, but no such luck. That could have increased sales by probably 50% for a quarter or two here in Norway. Hopefully Tesla is planning to gradually include additional features over the next few months.
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  • Apr 13, 2016
    RobStark
    Of course this is not as substantive a change.

    But design is very important.

    And there is a new front fascia with new LED headlights.

    Center console, ash wood interior trim, bio weapons defense mode air filter.

    Apparently the new interior door trim with storage, new Model X front seats, 100 kWh battery pack, and expanded color palette from the new paint shop will come later.

    I don't think there is much difference between Europe and North America on the desirability of current and future upgrades.
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  • Apr 14, 2016
    ev-enthusiast
    Sales up more than 100% in Switzerland during this year's Q1 compared to Q1 2015 (report).
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  • Apr 14, 2016
    schonelucht
    With all the countries accounted for the final balance for the last quarter isn't that bad. Deliveries are only down by 200 year-on-year. But last year we saw the introduction of the Autopilot-enabled Dual Drive Model S in Europe which was a huge demand driver. This year we are still waiting on both the introduction of the Model X and the refresh of the S to help Europe match the worldwide 45% year-on-year growth. The decrease in quarter-on-quarter deliveries of over 2000 cars clearly indicates a lot of demand that normally would have been filled this quarter was brought forward to help meet the numbers last year. Looking forward, the current quarter is going to be challenging still but Q3 should be a lot better.
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  • Apr 14, 2016
    Troy
    Hi everybody. UK 2015 numbers were just published today. There has been a huge increase in Q4. With 800 units in Q4 registrations were more than double the estimate. Compared to 347 units in Q4 2014, that's an increase of 231%. Here is how the situation looks like:

    [?IMG]

    Source (Excel file from gov.uk, 14 Apr 2016 )

    You can find the latest 2015 EU sales table HERE. In that table you can see the UK was the second best performing country in Europe in Q4.

    Inside the source file it says next update will be in June 2016. We won't know Q1 numbers until then. We need to use estimates. So I looked at Tesla's sales distribution in Europe in each quarter in 2015. It looks like this:

    21% 3,453 Q1
    23% 3,904 Q2
    21% 3,517 Q3
    35% 5,826 Q4
    100% 16,700 2015

    Based on that my estimate is (3453/5826)*800= 474 units for Q1 2016 UK (monthly average= 158 units). We can use this number until the update in June.
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  • Apr 14, 2016
    mrdoubleb
    So for what it's worth here are the 2015 statistics from Hungary. Like in the UK, the government agency is taking its sweet time releasing this - seems like we are the only two countries where this is not available for free within days of the end of the month.

    So keep in mind there is no Tesla Store in Hungary yet, so cars are either second hand or are private imports from other EU countries. Also I can't even get to vehicle type, the drilldown ends at brand...

    Total count of Teslas:
    2014: 12
    2015: 23

    All passenger vehicles in Hungary at the end of 2015: 3.2 million (+3%)
    Gasoline:2.3 million (+0%)
    Diesel: 890k (+10%)
    Hybrids: 8290 (+30%)
    EVs: 342 (+95%)
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  • Apr 14, 2016
    geneclean55

    So discounting the huge number of registrations in Denmark for q42015 due to incentives winding down, the q42015 data seems to suggest that the UK and Norway will be the largest EU markets for Tesla sales.
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  • Apr 16, 2016
    geneclean55
    Musk said that the UK could become the biggest market for Tesla in Europe.
    EV incentives are fairly good in the UK and unlike other big EU countries, there are no "national champion" car manufacturers that persuade the general population to "buy British". Jaguar has been been bought and sold several times by foreign companies.
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  • Apr 16, 2016
    schonelucht
    How is the (public) charging accommodation in the UK?
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  • Apr 16, 2016
    geneclean55
  • Apr 16, 2016
    geneclean55
    Also, as of March 2016 the government will contribute 500 pounds towards the cost of a home installation charging point.
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  • Apr 27, 2016
    Benz
    Incentives for buying EV's and PHEV's in Germany:
    EV 4,000.- euro
    PHEV 3,000.- euro

    It's for the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

    15,000 new charging stations, and 5,000 of those will be fast chargers.

    The German Government will spend a maximum amount of 1.2 billion euro.
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  • Apr 27, 2016
    Spidy
    Government budget is 600million. The other half comes from manufacturers participating.

    Also max base price to be eligible 60000�
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  • Apr 28, 2016
    Benz
    It's a step in the right direction, and I sincerely hope that other countries in Europe will also take similar steps.

    By the way, Nissan will add another 1,000.- euro on top of the 4,000.- euro for the Nissan Leaf or the Nissan E-NV200. People in Germany can buy a Nissan Leaf for less than 19,000.- euro (when they choose to rent the battery pack for 79.- euro per month). I prefer to see people buy a Nissan Leaf than an ICE.

    And yes, it's too bad that they put a limit of 60,000.- euro to the base price. But this also means that even more people in Germany will put down a 1,000.- euro deposit for a Tesla Model 3 reservation.
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  • Apr 28, 2016
    doctoxics
    Isn't the German program just for the German car companies contributing to the program? Is Nissan or any other non-German car company contributing and becoming a part of the incentive program in Germany?
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  • Apr 28, 2016
    AustinPowers
    Actually, the details still seem to be a little vague. As yet only BMW, VW and Merc are said to have agreed to the program. Nothing from Opel as yet, even though the Ampera-e (Bolt) is supposed to start selling at the end of this year. Still, enough time to join.
    I don't really expect Tesla to take part. Why should they? As long as their cars keep selling better than the German offerings even without any incentives...
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  • Apr 28, 2016
    Benz
    One can only receive the Government incentives after the contract will have been signed in which it will be mentioned by how much the car manufacturer has lowered the price of the car.

    Nissan will add an additional 1,000.- euro on top of the 4,000.- euro for the Nissan Leaf and for the Nissan E-NV200.
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  • Apr 28, 2016
    RobStark
    Europe March YTD 2016
    1 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 6.825
    2 Nissan Leaf 5.967
    3 Renault Zoe 5.838
    4 Tesla Model S 3.390
    5 Volkswagen Golf GTE 3.055
    6 BMW i3 2.633
    7 Volvo XC90 T8 2.503
    8 Audi A3 e-Tron 2.272
    9 Volkswagen e-Golf 2.217
    10 BMW X5 40e 1,576


    EV Sales: Europe March 2016
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  • May 2, 2016
    schonelucht
    It's time for some new registration data. April will probably be a very weak month for Tesla in Europa. There may be some spilling from deliveries that didn't make it last quarter but other than that I would not be surprised if this is going to be the worst month since January 2015. The reason is aggressive batching by Tesla in an effort to make their quarterly numbers even with lagging model X production earlier this year.

    In April, Tesla sold 96 Model S's in Norway (unofficial : http://elbilforum.no/forum/index.php/topic,5991.240.html), that's down q-on-q from 105 and down y-on-y from 230. Sweden reported 52 registrations, down from 75 y-on-y but up from 19 q-on-q.
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  • May 3, 2016
    mrco
    The SMMT (society of motor manufacturers) provides UK monthly registrations data by brand. Unfortunately the Tesla numbers are only included in 'Other Imports' but Tesla is the majority of this category as all but the very smallest brands supply data.
    March numbers (http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/Cars_03_2016.zip) show 1018 'Other Imports' for Q1. As Other Imports (excluding Tesla) have averaged 240 over the last 3 years (the quarterly number has ranged from 150-400), you can assume that about 800 MS were delivered in the UK in Q1. This also corresponds to a comment made by UK Tesla management in January that they expected to deliver a similar number of UK cars in Q1 as in Q415.
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  • May 3, 2016
    Benz
    Tesla Model S registrations/deliveries in The Netherlands in April 2016: 135.

    Source: Dealer Support Net
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  • May 4, 2016
    schonelucht
    Excellent news. Seems like the EU is becoming the new Norway/Netherlands/Switzerland. Why have sales perked up since the last quarter of 2015? Has the regulatory environment changed? New incentives? Is the Tesla infrastructure (superchargers and stores) finally in place to make the Model S a convenient choice in the UK? Have prices gone down?

    One slight reservation : EAFO reports 321 Tesla's for the UK in 2016 YTD. The website used to say that their numbers for 2016 where only for Jan-Feb but it now explicitly says that issue has been resolved as of april 4th. So it looks like they claim 321 deliveries in the first quarter of 2016. Confusing.
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  • May 4, 2016
    neroden
    You know, I've been running a little "when gas is cheaperto operate than electric" model for different gas prices. Looking at the Rystad chart, I'm realizing that once the upfront purchase price is the same (which model 3 does for half the car market), electric becomes cheaper essentailly regardless of gas price.

    It's not possible to overcome the "higher upfront purchase price" aspect through pure market forces, however, since amortizing a US$10,000 purchase price over the lifespan of the car ends up raising the breakeven gasoline price way up into a range it will never reach ($6/US gallon or higher). This remains an important issue for the bottom end of the market. Additional taxes on the sale of gasoline cars would make the transition happen faster, so the countries which have these will probably transition *very* fast.

    I would watch for countries which have either incentives for electric cars, or penalties for gasoline cars, as they basically drive the transition to electric cars downmarket, and should accelerate sales.
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  • May 10, 2016
    mrco
    UK sales understandably rose in Q4 as that was the first full quarter of right hand drive dual motor deliveries (i.e. representing 1 year of dual motor orders). I was surprised Q1 was so strong but seems to be genuine demand growth, incentives have not increased. There are a couple more stores which must have helped, they're quite behind on supercharger roll-out here.

    Re EAFO, they do state that these estimate latest month for UK (Data sources and reliability M1 vehicles | EAFO). My estimate is just an estimate but has been consistently close in previous quarters and it doesn't fit with comments from Tesla UK managt.

    My estimate for April is 139 (219 'Other Imports' from SMMT, less historical average monthly non-Tesla 'Other Imports' of 80).
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  • May 11, 2016
    schonelucht
    Switzerland posted 98 sales in April, down from 138 q-o-q and 117 y-o-y.

    With just a few smaller countries to report, the April total will likely fall to around 750, which is essentially flat with last quarter (732) or last year (780). One major caveat are the UK numbers. It's possible our registration stats underestimate the real sales volume. Looking forward, I'd expect May to be relatively slow while June should be a blow out month representing nearly two months of orders delivered in those 30 days. There is also the possibility of Tesla sneaking in some Model X deliveries this quarter.
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  • May 11, 2016
    eisa01
    According to this source Model S sales in the UK total 321 YTD

    | EAFO

    I don't follow the market to know if that includes Jan-Mar or Jan-Apr, but maybe the figures can be cross-checked against other known quantities?

    Data sources and reliability M1 vehicles | EAFO

    Previous month data is actuals, while current month statistics are preliminary for the UK
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  • May 11, 2016
    eisa01
    Can't find the edit button, but from Troy's figures on the previous page YTD is January to March, as the site displays 2015 YTD as 205
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  • May 12, 2016
    Troy
    Hi Eisa,
    EAFO numbers are a more than 6 months behind. For example early last month, UK 2015 numbers were still unknown. The estimate on the wiki was 991 units. EAFO was 838 units. If we trusted EAFO and lowered our estimate, it would be even more wrong because two weeks later Gov.uk published the official number as 1470 units. Furthermore, even today EAFO website still reports 838 units for 2015 UK sales. To see this, click HERE and on the left change country to UK. To see the official number (1470 units) from Gov.uk, click HERE and download Table VEH0160. Because EAFO has incorrect numbers on their site, it is not a reliable source. Btw, your edit button will be available after a few more messages.

    Hi mrco,
    Using SMMT numbers for UK estimates is an interesting idea. I've created this table to see if there is some consistency in percentages:
    [?IMG]
    Unfortunately the percentages are not consistent. For example in Q4 2015 SMMT reported 937 units as "Other imports". Later from the Gov UK number we found out that 800 of those were Tesla Model S. That's 85.4%. However in Q2 2015 the percentage was 26.9%. So the percentage of Tesla UK sales within SMMT's Other imports is anywhere between 26.9% to 85.4%. That's not very useful. Said that, I admit there is a huge increase in Q1 2016. It is most likely that again 85% or over of that 1018 number are Teslas. That would mean 1018*0.854= 860 units for Q1 2016 and 290 monthly average. We could switch to SMMT based estimates. We could use the last known percentage to calculate this months data.

    Hobbes, what do you think? Stick with Gov.uk based estimates or switch to SMMT? Of course these estimates are there for a few months until the official numbers replace the estimate.
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  • May 14, 2016
    Troy
    Hi,

    Here is a quick update: Following Mrco's suggestion, after collecting and comparing last few months data, Hobbes and I decided to switch to SMMT based UK estimates until Gov.UK publishes their numbers. They are always up to 6 months late. For example first 2016 numbers will be published in June. The wiki has been updated. UK YTD estimate changed from 632 units to 914 units. You can find details if you click on the UK numbers.
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  • May 14, 2016
    Spidy
    Btw. who can edit this page?

    Redirecting

    Europe Q1 2016 number should be like 1k lower.
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  • May 14, 2016
    Troy
    Thanks Spidy. Fixed.
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  • May 25, 2016
    schonelucht
    Publicly stating so we can verify how wrong I was :)

    European customers who ordered their car in the first quarter of 2015 got them delivered in the second quarter, 3904 in total. We know from the latest shareholder letter that first quarter orders this year for Europe were up y-o-y. Global order rate was up 45% but since Asia itself was up 160%, Europe is likely somewhat lower than 45% but still positive. Let's say 20%. That means we can estimate orders in the first quarter for Europe to be somewhere around 4700. According to the website these were delivered March (partially), April. May and June (partially). Tesla already delivered 2489 cars in March so let's assume 1300 of those were ordered in the first quarter. Together with the 787 from April that means there are still around 2600 cars to be delivered in May and halfway through June. I am shooting for 1000 in May and 1600 in June. Together with another 1000 from Q2 orders delivered in June we should see total Q2 deliveries to come down to 787 + 1000 + 1600 + 1000 or somewhere around 4400 (+13% y-o-y)

    Caveat Emperor : there is a large unkown in the +20%, that could easily be +35% if we are tracking better then the US or +10% if we do worse.
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  • Jun 1, 2016
    schonelucht
    We are not going to make 1000 for May if early reports are representative. 30 deliveries in the Netherlands (75 last quarter, 129 last year) and 24 in Sweden (37 last quarter, 77 last year). Possibly still the effects from batching and refreshing?
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  • Jun 1, 2016
    techmaven
    Refresh vehicles are barely starting to appear. Another race to the finish.
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  • Jun 1, 2016
    schonelucht
    156 for Norway. Down from 346 last year but up from 113 last quarter. Only 9(!) for Belgium, this down from 42 last quarter and 75 last year. 15 for Austria also down from 25 last quarter and 33 last year. I don't think there is any doubt that May will be one of the worst months for Tesla in Europe since a long time. With several of the traditionally important countries already reported we are at 234 cars. We now need a good turn in from the UK, Germany and Switzerland to even make it to 500.

    The order window for May was only 3 weeks so we should expect it's a little slower than normal but I didn't anticipate this drastically. Especially not because EU orders were on an upwards path in the first quarter (which is when these cars were ordered). The only explanation that would still fit all assumptions is that June is going to be a blow out month. Not sure how healthy such large swings are operationally wise though.
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  • Jun 2, 2016
    Spidy
    The problem is that it's really really hard to compare order numbers with deliveries. For example this is 7. December 2014. And that one green field can make all the difference. Also notice how it says March for US orders. When you ordered last December you got it 3 weeks later.

    2014-12-06 Wait Time.png

    Website wait times for delivery change
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  • Jun 2, 2016
    schonelucht
    Good point! The D reveal really released a lot of pent up demand pulling it forward to some extent and taking more than just one quarter to clear the backlog. I'd need to rerun the numbers but if indeed 2015Q1 orders were a lot lower then even after being up, orders in 2016Q1 are probably a lot lower than I originally estimated.
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  • Jun 2, 2016
    Spidy
    Germany 53... Reasons?

    Short order window? Expecting facelift? Too Expensive? New E-Class competition? Expecting government initiative for EVs?

    Guess we have to wait a bit and see how this develops.
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  • Jun 2, 2016
    AustinPowers
    Well, for a start, the government initiative for EVs in Germany currently excludes Tesla completely, due to the 60K Euro base price limit.
    When the Model 3 hits the market, I don't expect Tesla to take part in the EV initiative, and rightly so. As long as they are so heavily production constrained, why throw money out of the window. Even the German customers will buy the Model 3 in large numbers, with or without EV incentives. I know I will ;-)
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  • Jun 2, 2016
    schonelucht
    At least June will be better. Missouri Maersk unloaded in Antwerp and Rotterdam a few days ago (not sure in which port the cars are unloaded). It's going to be busy in the Tilburg factory.
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  • Jun 2, 2016
    mmd
  • Jun 3, 2016
    schonelucht
    If no one else does it, I will tomorrow. Normally it's not recommended that I review the numbers since I also submitted them in the first place. Currently the May total is 287 for all countries that are marked RED in the wiki. If everything stays like for like, we may end up at around 400, unless there is a UK surprise. Unfortunately we only really will know for sure in September or so.
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  • Jun 6, 2016
    geneclean55
    UK car registration estimates for May were released by SMMT today. Using the approach recently suggested by MRCO would indicate 141 Tesla registrations (221 total car imports minus historical average of 80 non Tesla imports).
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  • Jun 6, 2016
    geneclean55
    37 For France, 13 for Italy, 24(?) for Finland. Combined with the UK estimate, I think 500-550 for May should be obtainable as we are also still awaiting Switzerland. If that is the case, then numbers for first 2 months in q2-2016 will be similar to numbers for first 2 months of q1-2016. Is there any reason to believe/hope that June will surpass March numbers?
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  • Jun 8, 2016
    schonelucht
    Switzerland also delivered : 59 for this month, up from 58 last quarter and down from 70 last year.

    Overall May will come down to between 500 and 600. Unfortunately the UK numbers make it impossible for now to be more precise. That number is roughly equal with last quarter but down significantly from last year's 1028. June should be a blow out month.
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  • Jun 8, 2016
    schonelucht
    Switzerland reorted 59 (58 last quarter, 70 last year). May will end up somewhere between 500 and 600 when everything is said and done on the UK which has surged way above traditional heavyweight Norway.
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  • Jun 13, 2016
    mrco
    Actual UK Q1 numbers are now available - 762 MS sales
    Vehicle licensing statistics: January to March 2016 - Publications - GOV.UK

    It's close to my estimate of 778 (1018 'other imports' via SMMT, less historical quarterly average of non-Tesla 'other imports' - 240).
    I do prefer my estimated method of taking monthly 'other imports' and taking off 80 (or 240 per quarter) for non-Tesla's. Tesla deliveries are more volatile than the myriad of other imports that make up the rest of 'other imports' so you're more likely to see the real picture if you take off this base level, rather than using a percentage. Support the 80 number is - the average monthly non-tesla import since beginning of 2013 has been 76. Over the last 12 months, 85.
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  • Jun 13, 2016
    mrco
    When UK model X deliveries start, we won't be able to split the estimate between the S & X. According to a verbal comment from Tesla UK, there are c1000 X reservations here. Subject to order conversion, they should be delivered this year.
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  • Jun 15, 2016
    hobbes
  • Jun 15, 2016
    schonelucht
    On the Norwegian EV forum, MrBacardi gave an update for the month of June through the 10th. 58 Model S which is weak so far (last year we had 191 by the 13th). At least there is still more than 2 weeks. Better news are the first 4 Model X cars registered in Norway. Also in Germany and the Netherlands a few model X's were spotted the last few days.
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  • Jun 18, 2016
    hobbes
    There was a electromobility promotion event by the city where I live today. Tesla had a car there, too. I tried to talk the representative into giving me a test drive as I haven�t experienced AutoPilot first hand yet, but he said he couldn�t do it there due to insurance issues. So I ended up asking abou the availability of regular test drives, and he said they had 7,500 people in queue for just the Tesla store where he works! So no chance for me in the short term I guess, but great from an investor�s point of view, no doubt there is increasing demand.
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  • Jun 18, 2016
    Cattledog
    Wow, that almost seems like he must have misspoke. But I hope not.
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  • Jun 18, 2016
    GoTslaGo
    video in France: Sounds like something similar or regulatory (at 4:50 of the video, subtitled)

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  • Jun 19, 2016
    mrdoubleb
    I think that was just because they were not on a highway. Tesla officially does not recommend using AP in city traffic (yet), so obviously their communications director would want to be careful about that in a video....
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  • Jun 19, 2016
    hobbes
    I think I wasn�t clear, seems you got me wrong - the Tesla guy didn�t want to give me an impromptu test drive at all, because they were just there to display the car. Had nothing to do with autopilot. Autopilot was just the reason for me to want to test drive again.

    In the video, I think Tesla didn�t want to showcase AutoPilot because it was a small road and I think the official language is still that autopilot is for divided roads (though from what I have seen it would most likely have worked there).
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  • Jun 19, 2016
    hobbes
  • Jun 19, 2016
    GoTslaGo
    Thanks for the clarification! Still an amazingly long wait-list!
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  • Jun 19, 2016
    hobbes
    Yeah, that crossed my mind also, but that is what I heard. And wouldn�t he usually have invited me for a test drive later? That at least points into the direction that they are overbooked. I could imagine all the PR from Model3 helps interest in Tesla in general. After Germany has been below Tesla�s expectations for Model S orders, I think for Model3 German orders were very high compared to other EU countries if I remember correctly.
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  • Jun 24, 2016
    Spidy
    Well, I guess this is not going to help demand in the UK and other European countries. Will probably hurt sales quiet a bit, especially since the UK seemed to really get some momentum and make up for lower sales in countries like Norway.
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  • Jun 25, 2016
    Gerardf
    The uncertainty does not help of course.

    Lets first see what will happen to the UK Pound the comming weeks. Yesterday might very well have been an overreaction. A weaker Pound makes imports more expensive, but will also help their exports. There are also ather factors, e.g. what will happen with British inflation and interest numbers ? That will also have impact on the Pound. this will balance out at some point and nobody knows at what level.

    Next to that all imported cars will have the same problem, I have no knowlegde what Model-S competing car models are produced in the UK.

    IIRC the UK is a nett oil importer since 2013. In case the Pound stays weak for a longer time their gas prices will go up.
    �
  • Jun 25, 2016
    RobStark
    Jaguar XJ made in Birmingham England and some assembled in Pune India.
    �
  • Jun 25, 2016
    lklundin
    BMW has three manufacturing plants in the UK, a (Mini) plant in Oxford, an engine plant in Hams Hall and a stamping facility in Swindon. I am guessing that they also do final assembly, which will help with the tariffs (unless the UK back pedals on invoking article 50, Boris Johnson now thinks there is "no need for haste").
    �
  • Jun 25, 2016
    RobStark
    Gerardf wondered about which UK produced models compete with Model S.

    I assume he meant direct competitors since technically all new cars compete indirectly with Model S.

    So BMW does not build/produce/assemble the 7 Series or 6 Series Grand Coupe in the UK.
    �
  • Jun 25, 2016
    Gerardf
    Yes, that is what I meant. Thanks.

    Many (almost all ?) of the direct Model-S and -X competitors will have to be imported into the UK as well, like Audi A6, A8 and BMW 7 and Porsche that are probably not produced in UK but in a Euro country. The Euro gained less compared to the UK� than the US$, but still this helps Tesla.

    So IMHO.. don't panic.. UK will keep buying Tesla's. (Where is Johan when you need his avatar :) )
    �
  • Jun 25, 2016
    Spidy
    You are ignoring that Germans have a bigger lineup. So people will just get a E-Class or 5-Seriers instead, there a very few people who really need a large luxury sedan, have a chauffeur and take advantage of the executive rear seating and if you want space you get station wagons here. Sure this isn't great for their sales either, but they will make sales while some people might simply be priced out of a Tesla or not willing to spend that much in a uncertain economic situation.
    �
  • Jun 25, 2016
    RobStark
    I am ignoring nothing.

    Yes, most OEMs make more type of cars and cheaper cars. Right now Tesla is a niche automaker trying to become a small premium automaker.

    As time goes on there are less super environmentalist that are switching from smaller/cheaper cars to Model S than those switching from an equivalent car to Model S.

    I am sure there is at least one financial analyst in a posh part of London that was thinking of buying a Model S that will now get a Ford Mondeo instead.

    Like I said all new cars are indirect competitors to a new Model S.

    But that is not the where the bulk of the Tesla market is now.
    �
  • Jun 25, 2016
    schonelucht
    The risk for Tesla in the UK is a (temporary) dip in the luxury car market. The bulk of Tesla's market is still price sensitive. Also, it's quite possible a significant number of financial types will postpone the purchase of a new car because they run the run of seeing their job relocated to Frankfurt.
    �
  • Jun 28, 2016
    neroden
    UK wasn't a very large market so far, was it? Do we have a breakdown of UK sales vs. euro-denominated sales? The drop in the pound will probably reduce UK sales, but is that significant?

    (Or am I totally wrong? I'm having trouble parsing out the numbers -- was the UK the biggest of the European markets for Tesla?)
    �
  • Jun 28, 2016
    geneclean55
    UK came out of nowhere to be the number 1 market in Europe (alongside Norway) for the past couple quarters.
    �
  • Jun 29, 2016
    neroden
    Fascinating. Since I don't know why the UK suddenly became the #1 market in Europe, it makes it extra hard to tell whether Brexit will have an effect on this!
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    Benz
    The Netherlands in June 2016:
    188 Tesla Model S deliveries.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    schonelucht
    Sweden is 77 for June, down from 234 last quarter and 142 last year. Austria is 113, down from 127 last quarter and up from 83 last year.

    Benz already reported slow Dutch numbers and the Norwegian update from the 25th (178) wasn't really good either. To be honest these numbers surprise me to the downside. Orders in Q1 in Europe were supposedly up compared with last year per the shareholder letter. First quarter European orders are mostly delivered in the second quarter. So comparing second quarter this year with last year we should see deliveries move up from 3904 last year. Yet that is absolutely not going to happen. It's even possible we might (just) miss 3000! That's a huge decline and brings us back to 2014 even. Not sure how that can happen. Anyone has any insight here?
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    vgrinshpun
    I do not expect Tesla to deliver more MS cars overall than in Q1, so may be 12.5K total. It is plausible that US deliveries in Q2 stayed the same as in Q1, while split between Europe and Asia shifted, with more cars than in Q1 delivered in Asia, and less in Europe. I do not believe that Tesla can exceed 1100 - 1200 MS produced per week until Model X is fully ramped up and they start blending MS body production into the new high capacity BIW line, which will most likely be producing only MX until full ramp-up of MX production is complete.

    In order to meet guidance of 17K they will need to deliver about 4.5K of MX. I believe that they will deliver more, between 5.5K and 6.5K, with total deliveries 18K-19K, but it is just speculation at this point.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    Spidy
    I was already suspecting this. It think comes down to different durations between order place and delivery. I have not looked very close at those numbers, but here is one example where you can see completely different delivery estimates for Norway which made up 25% of Q2 deliveries (of course not all 85D cars, so it's not that dramatic, but you could probably find a few more cases like this), especially with the D roll out in late 2014.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    schonelucht
    But the shareholder letter was clear that orders in Europe in Q1 were up as well. If deliveries this quarter instead were diverted to Asia, were did the cars to fulfill European Q1 orders came from? Maybe Q1 2015 European orders were exceptionally weak at 2500 or so. Although that doesn't make sense since Tesla was consistently delivering 1000 cars more each quarter?

    Edit : Spidy has a good explanation and maybe indeed the effect was that dramatic in pulling demand towards the release of the dual motor/AP versions.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    vgrinshpun
    Shareholder's letter also indicated that while total growth of orders was 45%, it was 160% for Asia. Doesn't this mean that if total deliveries stay the same due to temporary production constraints associated with the MX ramp up, the portion of cars delivered to Asia should grow at the expense of deliveries to Europe, and, possibly US?
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    schonelucht
    From what I understood every region saw growth and Asia the most. But the sentence seems a bit awkwardly structured to me, maybe as a non-native speaker I am reading it wrong?
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    vgrinshpun
    I agree that letter indicated growth in all regions (another non-native speaker weighs in :)), including Europe and US, but growth in Asia was much stronger. My point is that if you assume that total deliveries in Q2 are capped due to manufacturing constraints at approximately the same level as Q1, the only way to increase allocation of cars to Asia is to reduce allocation of cars to Europe/US.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    schonelucht
    I don't think that's it either since all EU orders in Q1 got delivered in Q2. In April you could still order a EU car with delivery this quarter and the European delivery threads today confirm the same thing : customers getting their cars now tend to have an order date begin April. So the production cap did not prevent Tesla from servicing all EU Q1 orders this quarter.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    dc_h
    Production didn't seem to really hit stride until midpoint of Q2, so I suspect US deliveries will be focus of quarter. Q3 should see increase now with 2000+ per week production.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    vgrinshpun
    Production constraint on MS (being produced only on old BIW line) is still in effect, and will be into Q3. They are not going to blend MS to new BIW line until they achieve designated steady-state output of MX (whatever it is - 1000 or 1200 cars/week)
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    schonelucht
    Again, despite a possible constraint, all Q1 orders (with the supposed growth) were delivered in Q2 so that can't be the reason why Q2 is so far disappointing.
    �
  • Jul 1, 2016
    maoing
    What's Elon's prediction for EU Q1 order number? EU delivery in 2015 Q2 was 3.9K, 2015 Q4 was 5.8K, 2016 Q1 was 3.8K. I hope EU Q2 delivery number won't be less than 3.8K
    �
  • Jul 2, 2016
    bonaire
    Europe:
    2015 April-May 1908 (Q2 3904) June-2096
    2016 April-May 1436 (Q2 ?) - would need about June-2500 to beat 2015

    If Model X sales in the USA were in focus during Q2 2016, then Europe really isn't as much of a concern. Grand total should be right about 17,000. Initial numbers for June for Europe appear sluggish from Netherlands, Sweden and a few more. But primarily, the Model X and new fascia sales to the N. American market was the focus of Q2.
    �
  • Jul 2, 2016
    GVTesla
    EU Q2 delivery numbers will be probably disappointing compared to 2015. However, virtually no Model X-es have been delivered in EU yet. Current expectation seems to be that most of the pre-ordered ones will see delivery in Q3. A peak in deliveries in Q3 could pretty much compensate for weak numbers in Q2.
    �
  • Jul 2, 2016
    hobbes
    Submitted the numbers + a few others to the wiki. Can someone please crosscheck and approve?! Thanks.
    �
  • Jul 2, 2016
    maoing
    I agree the Q2 focus will be model X and Tesla should meet 17K guidance. But the concern is EU's model S demand is flat or declining on QoQ and YoY, even the similar pattern shown in NA model S sales on QoQ. The only exception might be just China market which has smaller base.
    �
  • Jul 2, 2016
    bonaire
    One thought... Where are the CPO going? If Tesla sent many US cpo returns over to Europe, since they can be imported into areas with low to no taxation, that could be a weight against new vehicle sales. And yet that gets more EVs into Europe where they can help work against high petrol prices.
    �
  • Jul 2, 2016
    dc_h
    Can someone share the wiki link?
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    mrdoubleb
    Once again, you do not know DEMAND, only Tesla does. We will be able to get a peak at global demand based on the customer deposits in the Q2 ER, but even that will be global demand for all Tesla models - S, X and 3.

    What you are seeing evidence of is Tesla production batching. They were favoring North America X reservations this quarter to lock down long term reservation holders, prove to the world and wavering X reservation holders that the X is now free of issues and coming in large quantities and still meet Q2 deliveries.

    S and X EU demand may or may not be declining, but you can't make that call based on a single quarter of deliveries into this market. Having said that, changes of local tax policies in Norway and Denmark will surely have a negative impact on demand in Europe, then again the S had an abnormally high number of deliveries in those countries compared to in-class models from other manufacturers.
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    hobbes
    See my signature ;).
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    hobbes
    Agree completely. Now that production is running smoothely again we will see more deliveries to EU next quarter. Q2 had problems with X in the beginning and S redesign, so if demand from US was great, they might have shipped less to EU. Also, many one-time factors like taxing in Denmark, upcoming incentives in Germany people are waiting for, people waiting for Xs instead of buying an S. I don�t see a reason why demand should be down generally in EU if it seems to be flourishing in US.
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    hobbes
    Reading the small print on insideevs, they seem to think about the same lines:

    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    schonelucht
    That's for sure not happening.
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    Snerruc
    Well, Tesla missed guidence a bunch. I guess the backlog is not that big.
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    RobStark
    Good f'ing grief. Read the GD notes on the Tesla press release.

    The problem is production not demand.

    But they exited the quarter "consistently producing just under 2000 vehicles per week."
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    bonaire
    Rob - the vin numbers being issued on the forums showed that just under 1000 Model S vin numbers per-week were issued in May and June. April was about 1250/week and was the new front-end and new feature cars including what I imagine a whole new set of replacement demos for world consumption. So, it may be suggested that they are just building Model X backlog faster. Those Vin #s are not always built immediately and as we know, some inventory and demos are built first before customer cars thus leading to this quarter's specific problem of inventory and demos reaching sales sites before customer cars near the end of the quarter. That is bad planning.

    But what is the order rates of each? This is never known. I cannot believe Model X orders incoming is above Model S. The target market (working fellas with good income) is more fitting for the Model S.
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    bonaire
    Why wouldn't they send used CPO USA cars to Europe? Charger configuration? You can import used EVs into Norway without tax implications. Isn't Norway a good market? How about where you are in Holland?
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    tentonine
    The chargers are different, as you pointed out. I think there are other minor differences too because of different regulations.
    �
  • Jul 3, 2016
    schonelucht
    So yes, there are a bunch of changes needed for regulatory approval, there are the chargers, there is the cost of shipping the vehicle and finally the added depreciation from being stored 2 months in a container instead of being available for purchase. Nothing is impossible, but if it had happened, we would have had known about it.
    �
  • Jul 4, 2016
    schonelucht
    Norway was 285 for June, down from 487 q-o-q and down from 566 last year. Not surprising now we know what happened in April and May production wise. Saving grace : July could be better than usual due to some model Xs on a boat somewhere that were meant to be delivered last month instead.
    �
  • Jul 4, 2016
    NicoV
    The charge port is different due to europe being 3-phase and usa being monophase. I went to a Tesla event two weeks ago where they presented the Model X. However this was a us model and they could only charge it via a US Chademo adapter.

    I explicitly asked wether it was road legal and they said yes. The X had german license plates.
    �
  • Jul 4, 2016
    bonaire
    How about the DC power at EuroSuperChargers?
    �
  • Jul 4, 2016
    NicoV
    The connector is a Type 2 connector. I think that's different than what's used in the US. This connector support 3 phase AC, while the US connector only supports monofase. So the connector on the car is physically different.
    �
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