Jun 30, 2015
pGo Thank you hobbes and Wenche for your effort. Appreciate it.�
Jun 30, 2015
Matias �I'm sad to hear that! Keep us informed.
On the brighter side in Finland's car tax for electric cars will 2016-2019 fall a bit, from 5% to 2.7%. Finnish car tax is based on CO2 emissions and can be up to 50% with very high emissions.�
Jul 1, 2015
matbl Swedish number for june '15: 142.
june '14 (for comparison): 45.
Jan-jun '15: 432.�
Jul 1, 2015
Adm The Netherlands:
June '15: 271
Q1 '15: 407
Q2 '15: 477
Q1+Q2 '15: 884
June '14: 182
Q1 '14: 207
Q2 '15: 361
Q1 + Q2: 568
Q1 + Q2: +55.6%�
Jul 1, 2015
Model 3 Norway June '15: 566
Added to wiki�
Jul 1, 2015
svp Austria June '15: 83
Updated wiki�
Jul 1, 2015
ItsNotAboutTheMoney The article (I read translated version) does say that they want to raise to continue to promote electric cars, just through "revenue neutral" measures, which would, I guess, mean raising some other car taxes to compensate.�
Jul 1, 2015
schonelucht We are currently about 300 units ahead compared with the first quarter. If everything goes right with remaining larger countries (Germany, Belgium, Danmark, UK) we could end up close to or even slightly over 4000 cars this time around.�
Jul 1, 2015
hobbes Looking good... Do you have a source?! Cannot find the number...�
Jul 1, 2015
hobbes As optimistic as I usually am, I don�t see that... Norway is 390 below last quarter and the other 3 countries that already reported cannot quite make up for that yet. What numbers are you looking at?�
Jul 1, 2015
schonelucht Here is the calculation : april versus jan +288; may versus feb up +588; jun versus mar for Norway -574, for the Netherlands +66, for Austria +4; for Sweden +20. Add it all together and we are ahead by 392 now.�
Jul 1, 2015
hobbes O.k., now I get it. But that is assuming all other countries report the same as in March. Not unlikely looking at what we have, but still an assumption... Won�t take long until we know!�
Jul 1, 2015
Bgarret Another way to look at it is that if deliveries to remaining countries were equal to May of 2015, the quarterly result is roughly equal to Q1. Not a stretch since all but Norway have come in +50-100% from May to June (Netherlands, Austria, Sweden). The range to me looks like 3,500-4,000 for Europe in Q2.�
Jul 2, 2015
hobbes Added a few numbers to wiki - most interesting is France, coming in at 132 for June, more than whole Q1 thanks to Le Superbonus! Think supercharger rollout there has helped also.�
Jul 6, 2015
VolkerP June in Germany is 224. All time record month!
There were 6 cars wrecked in a truck crash, hours before reaching the service center. :crying:�
Jul 6, 2015
hobbes Cool, that brings us to 3524 for the quarter, topping Q1�s 3490 while still missing Switzerland and Denmark.
Too bad about those crashed cars, especially for those who have been waiting for theirs - hopefully Tesla will put them first in line for a new one!�
Jul 6, 2015
Johann Koeber I just passed a truck with 6 Model S on the Autobahn near Bonn.
Not sure if they are the replacement ones.�
Jul 8, 2015
SebastianR In Denmark, the June data is interesting: Tesla sold more Model S (June: 160) than Audi sold A6 (June: 118) - even if you compare the full first quarter Tesla (Q1: 511) is only a few cars behind Audi A6 (Q1: 565) - that's quite amazing! And don't bother looking for the A8, A7, A5 or any of the Porsche cars - they are all left in the dust long time ago (same goes for Mercedes E-Class (June: 114) , BMW 5-Series (June: 27))
It is a small country and a specific situation but still I think that's quite amazing.
Of course, there is lots of uncertainty with the tax going forward, but I assume the rest of the year (while the tax breaks are still there) will be huge for Tesla in Denmark.�
Jul 9, 2015
svp The last "big" number outside of UK came out finally - Switzerland. And it's a big one - 253.
Even assuming low 200 for UK for the quarter, which is in the table right now, Q2 in Europe is 3909 vs. 3404 in Q1, 15% up.
If we exclude Norway, it's 2767 in Q2 vs. 1958 in Q1. More than 40% up!
Elon did speak about "amazing" demand in Europe, looks like awareness and acceptance of Tesla brand is increasing. I think outside Norway and Netherlands, it's still far from saturation, especially markets that started picking up relatively recently - France, Sweden, Finland, Italy, ..�
Jul 9, 2015
Ingenieur I would like to point out that majority of the cars delivered in Q2 was backlog of S85D/P85D orders from Q4 2014, i expect to see just 2000-2500 in Q3 unless Tesla announces Major changes soon that will still be deliverable in Q3.
Feel free to timestamp this post.�
Jul 9, 2015
Robert.Boston Duly noted: 08-July-2015 12:36pm.
But I think your pessimism isn't well founded. Tesla's experience has been that sales generate more sales, as friends and neighbors see the product first-hand and the scariness of "all electric" wears off. Tesla is nowhere near saturating its potential market in Europe. Other plus factors are the continuing expansion of the Superchargers in Europe and, perversely, the coming expiry of EV tax incentives (which may shift demand from 2016 forward).�
Jul 9, 2015
hobbes Wow, they grabbed 3rd place for the quarter from Germany!
As for UK, there were new numbers that I�ll use for an estimate for Q2: Tesla is not reported as an individual brand but falls under the "other imports" category in this spreadsheet. For Q1 we know the actual registrations of 216 out of 509 other imports. Using that ratio on this quarter's (172 for June and 1044 for the quarter) other imports, I get 73 for June and 443 for 2015 total. So for Q2 that is 443-216=227. I'll split that up into 75 for each month in Q2 to keep it simple.
So in total (with only single-digit countries missing), looks like we stay just below 4000 registrations for Q2 (3934, see wiki).�
Jul 10, 2015
svp Sekcija za osebna motorna vozila - Statistika
Slovenia - 2 in June, 5 so far this year�
Jul 11, 2015
Matias Finland June 8, source http://www.autoalantiedotuskeskus.fi/files/1011/Kesakuu_2015.xlsx
This month will be considerably better, because Tesla has just officially opened in Finland and has had meny pending deliveries.�
Jul 11, 2015
hobbes You saved Slovenia
Very good site you found, I added the numbers for all months up to now.�
Jul 19, 2015
Benz 253 Tesla Model S deliveries in Switzerland June 2015.
638 Tesla Model S deliveries in Switzerland H1 2015.
Best Selling Cars Blog link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015/07/switzerland-june-2015-seat-alhambra-and-bmw-2-series-shoot-up/�
Jul 19, 2015
32no Impressive. For H1 2015:
Tesla Model S: 638
Mercedes S Class: 415
BMW 6 Series: 157
Audi A7: 133
Porsche Panamera: 73
Audi A8: 63
BMW 7 Series: 55
Jaguar XJ: 12
Out of these models, Model S is about 41% of the sales.�
Jul 22, 2015
Yggdrasill A new update from MrBacardi, as of July 18th:
130 new registrations
- including 129 D-models and 1 with rear wheel drive
- including 76 with 85 kWh og 54 with standard battery (60/70 kWh)
- including 129 with 5 seats and 1 with 4 seats (executive rear seats)
The 70D must account for around 41% of sales, so that's not too bad. With the current exchange rate making the Model S a lot more expensive than it has previously been, it's natural that we will see both lower sales and a shift towards the lower end models.�
Jul 22, 2015
hobbes Thanks for the update! Added it to our wiki table.�
Aug 1, 2015
Yggdrasill Result for all of July in Norway, courtesy of MrBacardi:
222 new registrations
- including 221 D-models and 1 with rear wheel drive
- including 128 with 85 kWh and 94 with standard battery (70 kWh)
- including 221 with 5 seats and 1 with 4 seats (executive rear seats)�
Aug 1, 2015
pGo Thank you. 70 stands at 42%.�
Aug 1, 2015
RobStark For a few months we were getting Swedish numbers the first day of the month shortly after midnight.
What happened?�
Aug 2, 2015
matbl First day of the month happened on a weekend this time...
I don't know about shortly after midnight., more like 9-10 am... Depending on time zone of course.
i expect the swedish numbers for july to be released tomorrow at 9 am.�
Aug 3, 2015
matbl Release statistics doesn't break out "environmental friendly cars" yet. It will be released later today according to current release.
BUT! Judging from the number of cars in the "other brands" category being total 106, my guess is that it will be something like 50 MS for july.�
Aug 3, 2015
Matias July Finland 32.
http://www.autoalantiedotuskeskus.fi/files/1048/heinakuu_2015.pdf page 5
Big jump is because Tesla opened Service Center in Finland. There were many deliveries waiting that.�
Aug 3, 2015
Model 3 Which is now officially confirmed:
http://www.ofvas.no/bilsalget-i-juli/category665.html�
Aug 3, 2015
matbl I was wrong in my guess.
103 for Sweden in July. This makes it the 57th most sold model in July. It shares the 57th place with BMW X3.
It also means Tesla outsold Porsche (all models combined) for the second consecutive month.�
Aug 3, 2015
hobbes
Good number, thanks for posting! BUT: You could all save me some work if you provided a link to a source without someone asking first... Need it for the wiki. Thanks.�
Aug 3, 2015
matbl
Sorry about that. I will include it in the future.
Source: Nyregistreringar juli 2015 (def)�
Aug 5, 2015
hobbes Update on all the numbers gathered so far for Europe: We are at 643 for July while still missing Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and France, so it is likely numbers will end up better than April (793, 1st month of Q1) or even May (1039). UK is an estimate though (assuming average monthly reservations of Q2). See the wiki table for sources etc.
Norway 222 Netherlands
UK 75 Germany
Belgium 38 Switzerland
Denmark 103 France
Sweden 103 Austria 67 Finland 32 Estonia
Czech Republic
Ireland
Luxembourg
Italy
Spain 2 Latvia
Slovenia
Poland 1 �
Aug 5, 2015
RationalOptimist You mean July, yes?�
Aug 6, 2015
hobbes
Yeah, thx - fixed.�
Aug 7, 2015
hobbes According to evsales.blogspot.com, there were 30 Model S registered in Russia in 2015 through July: EV Sales: Russia July 2015
Must be a pretty big untapped market as this number is pretty high even though no official presence in Russia.
From a counting point of view, if these vehicles are bought in Finland, have they already been registered there also? Wonder if we should count those 30 registrations from Russia in addition to those in Finland or not. Anyone got an idea?�
Aug 7, 2015
RobStark Read thoroughly.
30 Tesla registrations through July. 30 Total for 2015.
I read at least the first Russian owner imported directly from the USA.
I would buy from EU so you can get it serviced in the EU and use European Superchargers without adapters.
But who knows.�
Aug 8, 2015
hobbes Man, I think i need a vacation. Fixed, thanks.�
Aug 8, 2015
Model 3 There is afaik no official import of new TMS to Russia, so all cars registered there has to be purchased somewhere else, and therefore accounted for there. If it Finland, Poland, Norway - or any other country does not matter.�
Aug 8, 2015
hobbes Accounted for in terms of sales, obviously yes, but also in terms of registrations? I guess Tesla would just do a temporary dealer registration for a test drive in Finland and once the car is in Russia, it is registered again. Then the question is if the temporary reg is counted in the official Finland numbers. Or maybe people do the test drive in another car, then the Tesla center would not have to register the car in Finland at all and it would be shipped to Russia right on arrival.�
Aug 8, 2015
bonaire One thing standing out is the steady growth of sales in Denmark. Any details on whether his has any incentives involved? Ev-sales indicates that MS sales far outpace anything else and the order tracking spreadsheet is full of Denmark lines for Q3-Q4.�
Aug 8, 2015
hobbes I remembered something about incentives ending and actually found that post - maybe someone local knows more about that:
Guess that helps orders now but not long term.
But Europe overall is not looking bad either, I think we will end up with about the same number of registrations for July (first month of Q3) as in May (2nd of Q2). Or comparing with April, that would be a 30% increase QoQ. But we are still missing numbers from Switzerland, France and Italy so can�t be sure just yet.�
Aug 10, 2015
Yggdrasill There was a price hike tonight. The average increase per car should be somewhere around 5k USD.
A 70D now costs 586,200 NOK, or 70,970 USD at the current exchange rate. In the US the price is 75,000 USD.�
Aug 10, 2015
Matias Finnish prices haven't raised yet, but they will rise 18.8 by 3%.�
Aug 10, 2015
pGo How do you see oil price impacting the economy ? I suppose Model S with tax benefits should be fine.
For Norway, Oil at $50 Is Worse Than the Global Financial Crisis - Bloomberg Business�
Aug 10, 2015
Yggdrasill It's likely to have a very slight impact. Places like Stavanger, our oil capitol, are the hardest hit, but to some extent the effects will propagate.
By itself, the oil price isn't that important. But the exchange rate for the USD against the NOK is getting worse and worse. Tesla has been able to avoid a sales collapse by introducing the 70D and then the 70, both of which are very good value for money, but the USD really shouldn't strengthen much more, or things will get much worse. The USD is at it's highest point since May 2002, currently at 8.26, and the highest it's been since 1960 is about 9.5, so historically, it shouldn't go much higher.
Of course, the oil price and the exchange rate are connected. We might need higher oil prices for the USD/NOK to normalize.�
Aug 10, 2015
RobStark Time to check out the fjords!�
Aug 10, 2015
Yggdrasill That's not the worst idea I've heard.�
Aug 10, 2015
allz In Latvia Tesla doubled - it was up to 5 (max) till July (so it is more than 2 years since first Tesla in Latvia) and now it is + 5 in July = doubled
Now we have around 8-10 (some could be in Russia already)�
Aug 10, 2015
hobbes Great. Thanks for updating the wiki, too.�
Aug 10, 2015
Model 3 Better then to (re)move the ice edge�
Aug 10, 2015
tomsky Hi guys,
Great news for me (should have cheked earlier this year). In my country, Romania, they started to publish monthly detailed statistics regarding car registrations. So far we have this:
January - 0
February - 0
March - 0
April - 4
May - 1
June - 3
July - 1
From what i can tell they're all 85D but judging from the other info the statistics are a mess, the power is listed as either 69 kw, 169 kw or 193 kw (70D has 328 total HP meaning 241 kW, 85D has 307 kW and P85D has over 500 kW - so none of that reflects on the numbers they published, another example of well spent public money but can't complain, at least they started).
At the end of 2014, not that matters now, there were registered 6 Model S and 1 Roadster.�
Aug 11, 2015
bh1783 Switzerland 199 July
auto-schweiz: Autoverkäufe nach Modellen�
Aug 11, 2015
tomsky Why my post is not visible yet?�
Aug 11, 2015
tomsky I said, in my invisible post�
Aug 11, 2015
Auzie Hey tomsky you are visible now :smile:
Welcome and thanks for news from Romania�
Aug 11, 2015
tomsky Thanks! Well, that post probably is waiting moderation, i have also posted the source for the info (external links) so probably this is the reason it isn't shown yet.�
Aug 11, 2015
hobbes That�s more than the total for Q1 for Switzerland! 1095 total for Europe while still missing France - that is even more than in May!
Thanks for the Romania numbers, tomsky, I will put them into the wiki as soon as your post with the sources appears.�
Aug 12, 2015
svp I've updated Czech republic numbers for all months this year with official numbers from https://www.sda-cia.cz/
42 Model S sold so far this year�
Aug 12, 2015
hobbes Thanks, cool (also for updating the totals and time stamp and everything on the wiki
Good number for July, highest together with March.
Now only Luxemburg left in danger of (temporary) extinction from the table. Anyone?�
Aug 12, 2015
svp Hobbes, yes, impressive number - I was surprised to see 42 cars sold there over 7 months this year.
And to complicate things further
Here's data on Iceland from ev-sales
EV Sales: Iceland July 2015
According to them , 4 Model S sold in July and 11 so far this year.
Should we add a row for Iceland?
They did provide link to the official site, but I was unable to navigate it, even with Google translate to dig up the data
Samgöngustofa�
Aug 12, 2015
hobbes Sure, add a row. Wasn�t successful in navigating the site either... I�d put the EV-Sales article as a source.
Is there anyone with the required language skills around?
By the way, where is tomsky�s post with the source for the Romania numbers - some admin on vacation
Tomsky, maybe you can try posting it again or if it doesn�t work send me a private message?�
Aug 12, 2015
tomsky I've sent you a pm with the links and will try to edit the wiki also.�
Aug 12, 2015
hobbes Thanks, message received. Here is an older HOWTO post I made:
In your case, you first have to add a row though, you�ll figure it out, works like a simple spread sheet application.�
Aug 12, 2015
tomsky Done
I've found the data for Iceland but will need time to figure it out and collect it: Tölfræði
Probably in an hour or so will post it.�
Aug 12, 2015
hobbes Good job guys. Together with 4 from iceland added by svp we are now at 1111 for July�
Aug 12, 2015
tomsky If a french speaker has the time to take a look at the Luxembourg authority and find if they publish statistics regarding new car passenger registration, i didn't find anything... Administration de l'Enregistrement et des Domaines - Index
Edit: I've found the data on the Luxemboourg Statistics portal, here: http://www.statistiques.public.lu/stat/ReportFolders/ReportFolder.aspx?IF_Language=eng&MainTheme=4&FldrName=6&RFPath=7611
In july 3 Teslas were registered and 18 in total in 2015.�
Aug 12, 2015
uselesslogin So this source says 53 for July in France. I'm not sure how I should put that on the wiki since the other one doesn't have the info.
autoactu.com - l'information automobile professionnelle�
Aug 13, 2015
TMS @ uselesslogin
I have added France numbers to the Wiki. Thanks for the info.�
Aug 13, 2015
hobbes Thanks for the number! Not sure what you mean with the other one doesn�t have the info. The other site we usually use? I think it is o.k. to post it now giving the current source and to cross check later.�
Aug 13, 2015
uselesslogin I didn't notice until now there is a source for each month's numbers. Now I see how to update it.
- - - Updated - - -
thanks!�
Aug 13, 2015
hobbes Because of some people seeming unsure of demand for the Model S (especially after the referral program came out) I made a plot of the last two years to reassure myself, maybe it is interesting for others, too. I find it more intuitive to look at a graphical visualization rather than just numbers. Because our wiki table doesn�t go far enough back, I took all the numbers (except for July 2015 which is from our wiki) from EV Sales: Europe . Also added a 3 month simple moving average to get rid of the jitter from end-of-quarter-pushes.
Does not look like demand is slowing at least for Europe:
�
Aug 13, 2015
svp Nice graph. Another important trend is obviously the decrease of relative share of Norway sales.
In Q1 Norway was 43.7% of all sales in Europe. In Q2 28.6%. July is 19%.
So the growth outside of Norway is very impressive. Norway, and possibly Netherlands are saturated markets. But other markets in Europe are far from that and should provide a lot of growth moving forward.
Another way to look at it - in January (1st month of Q1) only one country (Netherlands) had more than 100 cars delivered. In July (1st month of Q3) - 6 countries had more than 100 cars�
Aug 13, 2015
hobbes Yeah, I was thinking about doing curves for some individual countries, too to see when they saturate/level off. Then from number of sales per capita at saturation one could maybe extrapolate to non saturated countries to find out how much integrated demand to expect (assuming somewhat similar wealth distribution in those countries, which might pose quite a large error - but still, should be able to get an order of magnitude out of that. Or maybe not per capita but relative to other luxury cars...).�
Aug 13, 2015
RobStark A Modes S 70D in
Norway cost kr 586,200 or $71,300 plus $634 in tax
Germany cost � 66,737 or $74,418 plus $14,055 in tax
Belgium cost � 66,900 or $74,600 plus $16,102 in tax
Switzerland cost CHF 70,300 or $72,014 plus $6146 in tax
Britain cost �45,000 or $$70,263 plus $15,216 in tax
So relative to the USA Tesla is discounting Model S in Norway and Switzerland in addition to low taxes where it is doing very. Also discounting in Britain but high taxes.
Not discounting in Eurozone plus some heavy taxes.
I know Britain and France are supposed to have some sort of EV tax credit/rebate but it does not show up on Tesla order pages.�
Aug 13, 2015
svp We now have official sources for all countries in the table.
Here's some other countries missing from the table:
Portugal (EV Sales: Portugal June 2015 (Full Ranking) says 10 cars sold so far this year) - official site - ACAP | Homepage - I could not figure out where ev-sales found the actual numbers
Croatia
Greece
Bosnia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Serbia
Slovakia
Turkey
Macedonia
Montenegro
Albania
Andorra
Lichtenstein
Next year (at least according to Supercharger map), we should expect sales to start also in Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus
Not sure if any sales are planned for Malta and Cyprus
Any volunteers to look into any of these countries?�
Aug 13, 2015
Quant
Good info...much appreciated.
A couple of thoughts, looking out to availability and long lead delivery times for new 70 orders in Europe. either 70 has seen huge sales ( at the new prices), or Tesla is cutting back on 70 production mix so that the margin mix is within internal targets.
Also, worth noting that Norway and Switzerland are the among the top 3 richest countries in Europe, with Switzerland having tons of residents who are not Swiss, but dual residency wealthy folks from all over the world.
I wonder if the 70 pricing strategy making the news in Europe, has stimulated demand to such an extent that due to heavy demand, and Tesla's production constraints resulting in 2-3month lead times, this could end up bringing people into the store and then they end up up selling themselves into the higher price model, due to the lead times.
Intended , or unintended, a classic upsell demand-pricing strategy for luxury goods, where the buyers who have the capacity to go an extra 5-10% up the price ladder, end up upselling themselves ....once they walk in the door and see and taste the merchandise , so to speak.....
IF so, I expect Norway and Switzerland is where this could happen in a big way, because when they get excited, they don't want to wait 3 months and end up buying the higher price point Model? Since they certainly have the buying power...
looks good to me...�
Aug 13, 2015
RobStark Slovenia had its first Supercharger for about a year and now has a second but no sales or service.
I don't see any planned Supercharger for Belarus. At $7500 Belarusian GDP per capita is 1/3 of Slovenian GDP per capita.
With sanctions and counter sanctions between West and Russia I doubt planned Russian Superchargers get built. Russian stores and service centers seem far fetched.�
Aug 13, 2015
svp RobStark - Belarus - yes, it's also a very small country. On the other hand, the standard of living is much higher than in Ukraine, and Tesla did seem to plan entry into Ukraine, at least before the recent turmoil.
Regarding Russia - what can Tesla expect in Russia is an interesting question. On one hand, the geography makes Tesla not very practical and right now the economy and auto sales are imploding.
On the other hand, the premium car segment is actually holding up not bad.
Focus2move | Russia Car Market - May 2015
You can see that Mercedes is the only brand, which sales are up YoY so far.
Also, despite huge land size, economic activity in Russia is extremely centralized around Moscow. I am guessing a couple of stores in Moscow and one in St. Petersburg would definitely pay for themselves.�
Aug 13, 2015
RobStark Tesla planned Superchargers in Ukraine not necessarily entry into the Ukrainian auto market.
I think Tesla should finish Western Europe and Central Europe before going further East.
Iceland,Ireland,Spain,Portugal,Southern Italy,Poland,Baltics, Slovakia,Czech Republic, Slovenia,Croatia,Hungary maybe even Greece before it considers Russia,Ukraine and Belarus.
I think I would consider Ankara and Istanbul before Moscow and St Petersburg.�
Aug 13, 2015
svp The Supercharger map shows Istanbul already this year and there's an opening on Tesla website for support engineer in Istanbul..�
Aug 14, 2015
mrdoubleb So I have repeatedly tried to gather information in Hungary but it`s not easy. Finally, I have found some data at the site of the National Statistics Office, but Tesla is only listed in the annual data - the quarterly does not include it, maybe because it is about "new cars" and as Tesla does not have a shop here (yet), all cars are imported privately.
In any case I asked the Office if they could make their annual passenger vehicle data available at least quarterly if not monthly - we will see. For now this is what I could find:
The first Tesla was registered in Hungary in 2011 - safe to say it was a Roadster. In 2013 three more came, but I have no way to see if they were still Roadsters imported or we already had a few Model S. In 2014 eight more were registered, presumably all Model S, so the total by the end of last year was 12. I suppose 8-11 of these were Model S and 1-3 were Roadsters.�
Aug 14, 2015
TMS Luxembourg numbers for Q2 don't add up: no cars sold and the total is 15! Could somebody please check this?�
Aug 14, 2015
allz For post-soviet countries do not look for GDP or middle class. There is no middle class. You just somehow check the upper class / lux car sales and you get the idea how it actually looks in exact country for Model S sales perspective.�
Aug 14, 2015
schonelucht Here you go. Not sure if you can extrapolate saturation numbers from one European country to another. The impact of wildly different fiscal regimes is huge in my opinion.
�
Aug 14, 2015
Auzie Data on political stability, local ev incentives, sales prospects (market size), etc. may inform decision making when considering potential markets. Lack of language barrier (English comprehension) is likely to improve sales prospects of Tesla.
The situation in Ukraine is too unstable to consider it as a market. It does not make sense to try to sell expensive luxury cars into that region. Also, the region is not on some major transit route, at least not to my knowledge.
Greece and other southern European countries are frequent holiday destinations for many Europeans. It makes sense to have superchargers all over Europe, to support electrified European travellers.
Some businesses, like Westfield (shopping centers), use traffic data to inform decision making on Westfield shops locations. Perhaps Tesla uses similar traffic data when establishing the best location for superchargers.
Agree. Russia is not politically stable. Back in March, GM halted production of its 3 plants in Russia, due to a steep collapse in car sales, political instability, local currency 50% drop and sanctions.�
Aug 14, 2015
Gerardf Vacation traffic to Greece is mainly to the islands and by plane. And that is very low cost tickets. To my opinion low priority to have SuC there.
Using Superchargers in Austria and Slovenia we can now already reach all North Croatia. That is not bad at all for vacation traffic.
Same for South of Spain. Very cheap flight there. And Barcelona is now covered.
I just did a vacation trip through West & South Germany, via Switserland, Liechtenstein, North Italy, Austria and South-East Germany and back to Netherlands. Only using SuperChargers. I planned for camping and Hotels als paln-b for charging. Never any need. All was very easy and required just some limited planning and minor route adjustments to ideal route.
In 2014 same for Norway (just few times charging at a camping, would not be needed anymore now for my route).
To my opinion SuperCharger coverage for vacation travel in Europe is already very impressive and certainly good enough to convince current prospective buyers they can use their Model-S for vacation road-trips.
Actually this might very well be an important factor in the recent growth of the European business. People do not want to have to use another car for vacations when they have invested in such a supercar with lots of luggage space for daily use. And many are lucky to have parking space for one car�
Aug 14, 2015
Model 3 The Norwegian forum has been full of discussions/planing and reporting about going to Croatia, Italy, southern France and Spain with the Model S. Where and how to charge etc. IFAIK the first supercharger user in Spain was a Norwegian on vacation. And more is going next year when Spain has a better build out supercharger network.�
Aug 14, 2015
hobbes The logic behind this is that the source linked for July says 3 in July (as put in the wiki), and 18 total for 2015. As we had 1 for Q1 the 18-3-1=4 registrations remain for Q2 (given the Q1 is correct). So I changed the 15 to 14 and marked it as an estimate. Maybe someone can research the individual monthly numbers some time.
- - - Updated - - -
Cool, thanks! Maybe the best way to extrapolate is using the share the Model S has of the premium car segment it competes in. That would mirror how many people in a given country can afford such a vehicle. So if Tesla gets i.e. 50% share of that on average in a few countries where the sales have levelled off, you could estimate from the size of the other countries how many sales you might expect there (again, just interested in order of magnitude).�
Aug 14, 2015
svp I don't think I fully agree with the sentiment regarding Russia. Yes, the economy is plunging, the distances are vast.
But, despite political instability, premium Russian car market is still large. GM is not a good comparison, as it was focusing on low end cars.
It's actually comparable to France now
focus2move.com/russian-auto-sector/
Focus2move| France Vehicles Sales Statistics - 2015
Mercedes - Russia - 26K, France - 26K
BMW - Russia - 14K, France - 25K
Porsche - Russia - 2.5K, France - 2.5K
Lexus - Russia - 9K, France - 2K
Also, right now the import tax is 0 for electric cars. Although approved only through end of 2015 , but there are talks about extending.
If 30 Model S were really sold so far this year (EV Sales: Russia ), despite plunging economy, high costs and difficulty of bringing Model S to Russia, no service centers,no free cell connection, no localization in terms of language,etc. the potential must be quite good. For sure would be worth a couple of stores in Moscow. Even more so for Model X�
Aug 14, 2015
RobStark The arbitrariness of the Russian government or better said the arbitrariness of Vladimir Putin is too great IMO for a Western business to enter Russia. Particularly one with Elon Musk at the helm that has had verbal spars with Russian apparatchiks. If you are already there, say BMW or Porsche, you may think twice about leaving your sunk investment.
But sinking good money into Russia seems like a bad idea. I keep reading Russia's elite and children of the elite keep moving out of Russia to London,Paris, and elsewhere in the West. Less and less of them to buy Model S and Model X.�
Aug 14, 2015
Auzie Russian car market is large, premium segment is large. Market size is the only positive this region market has going for it. All other relevant factors indicate a need for caution, some indicators scream run away as fast as you can.
If Tesla enters that market, they are likely to lose money due to falling local currency, they are at risk of sinking the whole investment as doing business in Russia and similar places is quite different to doing business in the US. Foreigners must play by the local rules. These rules, I would not wish on anyone to have to play by them - good luck with that.
It might be safer and work out better if Tesla strengthens its footprint and presence in favourable regions before entering exotic ones, like Russia, Middle East, etc.
I am not saying not to enter these risky markets, just to delay until the risk is reduced in safer markets so the business is ready to take on the extra risk of entering the regions of very different culture, political systems and language.�
Aug 14, 2015
vgrinshpun I have to second this. I think that I've read somewhere that Elon ignored a few overtures aimed at him regarding the Russian market.
This reminds me of an old joke about the difference between smart people and wise people. Smart people always find a way out of difficult situations. Wise people do not get in the difficult situations. I believe it will be wise of Tesla to stay away from the Russian market.�
Aug 14, 2015
Quant Ya, Russia is not far away from another fabricated incursion/excursion into another former Soviet Bloc country!
Why take this risk and currency and government risk when supply is constrained and so many other markets have 3-4 month lead times for many S models, and once X launches I expect the demand from that will be insane with supply as the limiting factor.
Fooling around in Russia and taking a chance on Putin the dictator is poor risk-reward at this time!
Elon is right about Russia, the government and the bureaucracy - and bribes that have to be paid - creates huge hurdles!�
Aug 14, 2015
Auzie To my knowledge, paying bribes is not only a hurdle, it is illegal and subject to US federal law and prosecution, namely Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.�
Aug 15, 2015
Quant Precisely....�
Aug 15, 2015
Drax7 What's hilarious is that Elon has actually been in Russia when attempting to buy an icbm rocket engine for space x.�
Aug 15, 2015
RobStark And left in frustration at being "russianed" and built his own Falcon rockets instead.�
Aug 15, 2015
jkirkebo I don't think this is a big factor in Norway. We don't buy new cars off the lot here, we are used to order them to spec and wait 3-6 months.
Registrations so far in august suggests a 70kWh share of about 35%, and thus 65% 85kWh.�
Aug 16, 2015
hobbes Thanks for the hint
(Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
For comparison, 130 were registered in July as of the 18th.�
Aug 17, 2015
hobbes (Taking this back here from the short term thread)
Yeah, thanks to everybody, this is the most complete month number-wise we have had for a while!
Taking just the 1st months of each quarter is similar to my idea with the SMA. Just for fun I added a curve for the 50% YoY growth to the plot to see how it fits:
The fine print: The green line is an exponential curve with the factor in the exponent calculated to match the 50% YoY growth, while the scaling factor is fitted to the data.�
Aug 17, 2015
mmd Thanks for the great plot! But I think a plot of quarterly deliveries will yield a smoother and more appropriate line, as there is too much variation in monthly data. Could that be superimposed on the same plot?�
Aug 18, 2015
hobbes That�s is what I put the SMA for. The SMA data point for say June is the sum of deliveries for Apr, May and June divided by 3, so it resembles the quarter total as variation is concerned. But the SMA also gives you more data points than just the quarterly numbers.�
Aug 18, 2015
mmd I meant, if you take the financial quarters, the plot should be monotonically increasing, an we won't see the ups and downs we see in the 3-month SMA. So, there will be just one point for 3 months of a quarter, which will be the average of those 3 months. IMO, that should reflect the real growth better. But it's not that important really.�
Aug 19, 2015
Matias Is Danish car tax for electric cars rising?�
Aug 19, 2015
RobStark Exemption to the car tax for electric cars is ending Jan 1 2016.
For premium priced vehicles tax can be as high as 250%.�
Aug 19, 2015
Matias Ouch. I guess afther that there will be very few Teslas sold in Denmark.�
Aug 19, 2015
RobStark Most people that were thinking of buying a Tesla in 2016 will buy in 2015 instead.
Then in 2017 sales IMO will be about 20% of what they were in 2015.
Danes will start to import used Teslas from the rest of the EU with a lower price tag and therefore lower tax.
A Dane on TM's forums said a Model S that can be purchased for $100k in the USA will cost the equivalent of $250k in Denmark in 2016.�
Aug 19, 2015
mmd So, the tax (import duty) is 150% ?
Wonder how the warranty works for used Teslas. Can Danes get them repaired at Danish service centers if it was bought in some other country?
I think, Norway is more important than Denmark. Has anything been finalized for Norway for 2016?�
Aug 19, 2015
RobStark Import duty is the same everywhere in the EU, 10%. Tesla does not pay import duty because it re-assembles in the car in the Netherlands. The tax is a luxury car tax. The higher the price the higher the percentage for the tax AFAIK.
There are three Tesla zones in Europe; Norway,Switzerland and the rest of Europe.
Any car purchased in the rest of Europe can be serviced anywhere in the rest of Europe.
I presume there is a single EU market for used cars in the EU. Buy a car in France or Italy and import it duty free. That does not mean luxury tax free.
Norway nothing changes til 2017. There are general elections in 2017. And the new government is the one that will be making the decisions about whether to sunset EV incentives or not.�
Aug 19, 2015
mmd Great info! Thanks!�
Aug 19, 2015
Yggdrasill There's zero issues with getting the car serviced in other countries than where the car is bought. Service center wait times for non-critical stuff is currently 3-6 months here, so some Norwegian Tesla owners have combined a road trip to southern Europe with getting the car serviced. That way you skip the 3-6 months waiting time. And it's good for Tesla, as it divides the load better.�
Aug 20, 2015
RobStark About a year ago, a German member of TMC who was considering a used Swiss Model S was told the policy was I stated above by a manger of a Swiss Tesla store. I guess things have changed or the manager was misinformed. Would not be the first time.�
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