Thứ Bảy, 5 tháng 11, 2016

EU Market Situation and Outlook part 10

  • Apr 1, 2015
    Gerardf
    I like having a central list (I have kept my own list so far), however would prefer to see an alphabetic list.

    Also some countries missing. I have also seen January numbers for Slovenia and Poland (9 each in Jan) and Italy (Jan 5, feb 1) . I have not tracked the source (guess it was on this forum or EV-sales blog)
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    Newb
    Thanks for the hints, Gerardf!
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  • Apr 1, 2015
    Adm
  • Apr 1, 2015
    Newb
    Wow!! This means we've just crossed the 2.900 mark for Q1 Europe! Keep the numbers coming in!

    By the way, nice fact:

    In Q1 in the Netherlands, more Model S (407) have been sold than ALL other luxury segment sedans COMBINED (~380), including cars like MB S- and CLS-Class, BMW 6 and 7 series, Audi A7&A8, Porsche Panamera, Jaguar XJ, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Infinity Q70, etc.
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  • Apr 1, 2015
    Newb
  • Apr 1, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    I have just double checked the German deliveries for March (300) because I thought this number is a bit high compared to the previous months.
    In the German Tesla Forum I found a quote from the German Tesla Country Manager Schr�der mentioning 300 deliveries in March during a owners event in March in city of Hamburg.
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  • Apr 1, 2015
    Benz
    I used to track these delivery numbers in 2014.

    And every now and then there was a difference of a few cars (mostly not more than 10).

    The clarification for those few missing cars was that it wasn't absolutely clear to which month these few cars should be allocated.

    But when the total annual numbers were calculated it all ended up well.
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  • Apr 1, 2015
    Bgarret
    This is from PAT in Switzerland last night from the P85D thread....while Tesla may not be as aggressively pushing floor models or loaners our the door this quarter, there is definitely a push. If you glance at the P85D delivery thread places like Paris and Prague are popping up more. Be interesting to model if just under half the deliveries are P85D, what that does for margins.

    "Got my P85D yesterday as planned!! deliver was in Switzerland/Winterthur where they had to deliver more than 30 cars at once where they normally deliver about 1-3 a day I guess     [?IMG]. So everything happened at a special place (small castle) but due to very stormy weather I was more worried about all the nice cars getting damaged by a flying obstacle, but it turned out fine."
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  • Apr 1, 2015
    Newb
    ah, thanks! Makes sense. I'll correct the wiki numbers for February then to match the official Q1 total in Netherlands.
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    matbl
    I think we will actually cross 3100. Several large countries like uk, france, switzerland, etc still have 0 for march. Lets just hope the german number is accurate or on thr low side as well.
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  • Apr 1, 2015
    uselesslogin
    So on average between the countries that have reported now they have sold about 2.9 times more cars that the first 2 months of the year. If I extrapolate that trend to all countries that have more than 15 deliveries in the first 2 months we are looking at at around 3500 cars for the quarter. I completely left the UK out of this number since I don't expect high deliveries there since they don't have AWD yet but maybe they have another 100 so maybe we will see 3,600 or so. I think that number almost guarantees Tesla did not miss guidance and the question is how much they beat it by.
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  • Apr 1, 2015
    Taipan
  • Apr 1, 2015
    Newb
  • Apr 1, 2015
    Model 3
    And here are the official numbers for Norway.
    http://www.ofvas.no/bilsalget-i-mars/category657.html
    Google transladed quote:
    Golf sold 1421 cars, but this is both EVs and fossils. This is almost the record Tesla sat last March...
    Tesla Model S got 1140 cars, exactly the same number that I got (and I know am at least 3 above :tongue: )
    �
  • Apr 1, 2015
    sundaymorning
    Thanks for keeping us posted. This Q is looking quite exciting. Stationary storage announcement followed by a beat? Oh my...
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    matbl
    Updated number for sweden based on real registration data: 122.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    jkirkebo
    Not even close for Q1. Tesla delivered 1532 cars in Norway in Q1, VW delivered 1718 e-Golfs in January and February alone. With March added in I expect about 2500-2700 e-Golfs in Q1 (I don't have the exact e-Golf sales number for March yet, just the Golf total).
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Gerardf
    Wow, that is a great number. If I am correct 2014 in Sweden was was 268 deliveries in total.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Thanks for posting registration data for Sweden!

    The March number is up big compared to January (29) and March (10).
    Do you have a source for the registration data?
    Is there a web site?

    We can only add delivery numbers to the European Q1 delivery table if we have a source.
    Only way to be able to show where big total number for Europe is coming from in the end.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Gerardf
    There is a report here : Nyregistreringar mars 2015
    Select the months via Nyregistreringar per mnad


    However that still shows 98 for March. (a nice number for Sweden anyway)
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Lessmog
    122 Tesla Model S levererade i Mars!!! - Tesla Club Sweden published this morning says 122 delivered in March.
    Bilsweden has a cutoff date some days before end of month, so another 24 cars were found in the official statistics direct from Trafikverket, or ELIS or PowerCircle (both behind a paywall, apparently). 38+12+122 Model S delivered in Sweden Q1-15! I make that 172.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Fanatic
    Will someone compile all data now gathered? Spreadsheet maybe? I don't know how to.:redface:
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Matias
  • Apr 2, 2015
    Model 3
    Seems to be fairly accurate. My number is 2818 e-Golf's for Q1, but that includes used imports.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Gerardf and Lessmog, thanks for your input!

    Here is the Model S registration data from all registration data files from Sweden from January till March:
    2015-04-02-SwedenRegistrationsQ1-2014.jpg
    I can find the cummulative number for January + February + March registrations at 138 (green ellipse) new vehicle registrations.
    98 registrations in March is tripling the monthly registration number YoY already!
    Unfortunately I can not find the "extra" registrations mentioned above to get to 172 new vehicle registrations.

    I suggest to take the official data as input for the European Delivery Table for Q1.
    As soon as we get any confirmation on the "extra" registrations, we can count the "extra" registrations as well.
    Just as a reminder: We should not get carried away with our wishes here, the calculation should be as relyable as possible (no speculation).
    A difference of 44 vehicles sold translates to a sum of about 4000000$.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Borka

    That's againt from bilSweden's report and they have from what I understand an early cut of date. Basically the last days of delivery will spill over to next month. It's better to use the statistics gathered from the site elbilsstatistik.se.

    cheers

    cheers
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    matbl
    Startsida - Elbilen i Sverige
    they use data from the official car registry which bil sweden doesn't. So I think this is more accurate.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Fanatic
  • Apr 2, 2015
    Lessmog
    Yes, but your source appears to be the same as Bilsweden.se who truncate each month around the 25th or so, missing a few cars each month. Those uncounted cars add up to greater errors if they are not added back into the cumulative totals. That's just bad statistics, sorry! I think this completely explains the difference in this year's numbers. 38-29, 12-11, 122-98 is our discrepancy, exactly.

    Now, I don't seek out these sources myself, but the guy I quoted above (Tibor) does follow them. Let me quote him directly in case you didn't follow the link above:

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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Gerardf
    After the good news more on Tesla developments as published in Sweden yesterday..

    Google Translate

    Note the new Cooperation resulting in the Nissan Model 3 and Musk's "Unveiling of the DD""
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    ev-enthusiast
    Amazing!
    Finally another major car company paying for use of Tesla SuperChargers for their EVs (... only on April 1st?!)!
    ;)
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    virtuesoft
    I emailed the DVLA data team to see if they could provide numbers for the UK. They couldn't provide any numbers for this quarter. However, they did tell me that they provide lagging statistics on licensed cars by make and model, per quarter on their website, in Table VEH0120...

    All licensed vehicles and new registrations (VEH01) - Statistical data sets - GOV.UK

    Unfortunately it only has data up to Q3 2014. Q4 2014 should be updated later this month. However, here are the numbers they have since the Model S was released in the UK...

    Q2 2014 = 192
    Q3 2014 = 282 (the spreadsheet shows 474, but this is the cumulative value)

    I'm not sure if these numbers have been mentioned before. We won't find out how many cars were sold in the UK during Q1 2015 for another few months, but if we assume it is at least as much as Q3 2014 we have quite a nice addition to the EU total.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Gerardf
  • Apr 2, 2015
    schonelucht
    Excellent news. I previously estimated (and mentioned here) respectively 170 and 231 for these numbers so we are not far off from our estimates.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    dirkhh
    The Kraftfahrtbundesamt in Germany has released summary numbers for March. Tesla is not broken out in those numbers, the "Sonstige" (others) category climbed 46% yoy to 1954.
    The detailed data which include Tesla usually are released a day or two later...
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Gerardf

    Another hint in the press release :

    1.278 Elektrofahrzeuge wurden neu zugelassen � ein Plus von +55,3 Prozent.

    Source : Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 08/2015 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im März 2015
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    dirkhh
  • Apr 2, 2015
    hobbes
    Put new numbers for Belgium, UK (estimate of 280 for Q1 14 total after 282 in Q3 2014) - I think estimates are o.k. as we mark them as such and this way the cumulative total is closer to the real number than leaving UK out completely.

    Makes 3331!

    Anyone got numbers for Denmark and Switzerland? I think we will end up at more that 3500 in the end :).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Unfortunately, there is a holiday, then a weekend, then another holiday... so we have to wait at least until Tue next week. Not that I wasn�t looking forward to having a few days off, but it is a looong wait for the numbers.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    smac
    Yep I'd posted them earlier in this monster thread :D

    UK details historically come out around 10th-12th of April for the previous year. So less than 2 weeks until we find out total 2014 UK deliveries. Bear in mind Q3'14 included some early pre-ordered cars (mine included, which got delivered in July) so it may be a little higher than a "run rate" month with no new product.

    One guy that picked his car up last week was told they'd almost hit 1000 cars since launch in the UK by his delivery specialist. TBH this sounds about what I was expecting. i.e. 750 last year, and 250-ish on the last boat (the cars just delivered).

    Bear in mind too no D cars are scheduled here until late August (so into Q3'15 figures), so a fair chunk of orders have been pushed back. I would imagine a lot of people will postpone delivery until the new plate, so we may not see many of the D cars until September, but I'd expect a bit of a bump as there is pent up orders for both the P85D and the S85D.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    Wenche
    I think there is a possibility that a few of the Swedish cars are second hands, imported from Norway. I understand the register to count all new registrations in Sweden of cars newer than 3 years old. Anyway not very many, in my opinion.
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  • Apr 2, 2015
    32no
    Where are the Slovenia and Poland numbers on the European registrations wiki coming from (they have no source)? They are both suspiciously 9, 1, and 5 for January, February, and March. I have only 3 in Slovenia in February and 0 for January and February in Poland and January in Slovenia, as well as no data for March on my spreadsheet.
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  • Apr 3, 2015
    hobbes
    This post has Slovenia and Poland in it and the numbers 9,1 and 5. From the wiki history I can see though that Newb put the numbers, where did you get them? Gerardf, could you please try to dig up the source?

    For now, I removed the Feb and Mar numbers for Slovenia and Poland.
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  • Apr 3, 2015
    Gerardf
    I foind the italian numbers here : EV Sales: Italy February 2015

    will try to find where I got the Januari figures for Slovenia and Poland from, but not sure I can trace these back.
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  • Apr 3, 2015
    hobbes
  • Apr 3, 2015
    Lessmog
    Yes, you may be correct. And me too; the figures do add upp, right?
    But I believe there is at least one car a guy brought with him when he moved from Norway to Sweden. He runs a blog about having a Model S as the only family car. IIRC he moved before Xmas though so not in these counts.

    Ah, found it: Norge-Sverige flytten | Elbil som familjebil Tesla Model S
    He got his registration papers on 19 Dec.
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  • Apr 7, 2015
    jhm
  • Apr 7, 2015
    Auzie
    Tesla is spreading like a virus :smile:
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    AustinPowers
    Still no detailed numbers for Germany, other than the 1.278 BEVs total for March. Seems a lot of the relevant number crunchers at the KBA are still in their Easter holidays (as are many people in Germany at the moment actually).

    But taking the 1.278 as a hint, a few hundred Model S don't seem too unrealistic. Unfortunately even the detailed numbers won't show how many e-Golfs were newly registered. Also no precise numbers for B-class ED or Focus electric either, as the numbers only show vehicle types like "VW Golf", "Mercedes B-class" in total, not by model (like 1.6 TDI, 2.0 TDI etc.). So unless there is a seperate vehicle type like Model S, i3, Ampera, Zoe etc. then one can only guess.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    hobbes
  • Apr 8, 2015
    dirkhh
    294 for the quarter is good in which universe? We had 143 in March last year. So with the much hyped P85D we have only 70 more cars sold?
    So what's the catalyst that will drive decent sales in Germany?
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    AustinPowers
    I have said it again and again and I can repeat it once more: as long as there are

    1) zero real government incentives for buying an EV
    2) no willingness on Tesla's side to agree to price negotiations with customers

    only a handful of wealthy enthusiasts or some businesses will buy/lease Model S's here.
    Remember how small the market for cars of 70K and up (100K for a decently equipped S85 is a number that holds off I would say about 99% of your average car buyers) is anyway, let alone for BEVs that aren't really popular yet over here. Add in the fact that Tesla is an American car company (that also few people even know of at the moment), then a few hundred cars in three months seems like quite a lot to me actually. Of course I would prefer to see more on our roads, but under the current conditions I can't see how that could happen, unfortunately.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    Are you suggesting that Tesla should follow BMW/Audi/Daimler in marking up their cars by an extra 10% so that people can have the joy of negotiating discounts of between 2% and 10%? Price negotiations with traditional OEMs always end up at a price the OEM is happy with and often higher. Flat pricing seems easier and fairer to me.

    The issue that you don't mention that I think is a hinderance is getting in on corporate fleet deals. My limited understanding of the German luxury car market is that very few of those cars are actually purchased by individuals, but rather are company cars.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    Gerasimental
    I think Tesla might just not feel the need to pull any demand leavers in Germany just yet. Could well imagine that they'll be a lot more pro-active in achieving fleet sales for Model 3, which should then also act as a demand catalyst for Model S/X at a time when other markets are near saturated for Model S and maybe getting close for X. Since they're so production constrained now it seems sensible to allow demand to grow at a controlled pace.
    Tens of thousands of Model 3 on the roads, and the word-of-mouth information that comes with it, would do more to increase awareness of Tesla and convince people of the benefits of EVs than anything Tesla can do now.
    The government is falling well short of its own goals on EV adoption (wasn't it 1m on the road by 2020?) so it's possible that real EV incentives are in the offing, although I guess that will have to wait until the only real EV options are no longer non-german.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    Johann Koeber
    No, not neccessarily.

    But Tesla needs to care about fleet sales and they have invested in this area lately (hired people, did company drive events). I expect sales to pick up in Germany substantially, if they are successful.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    smac
    I agree fleet sales are important too.

    Tesla have unfortunately just shot themselves in the foot here with the changes to the model line-up :( Cars near model changes (Autopilot / Non Auto pilot, RWD / 70D) are just massive unknowns in terms of true market value in 3 years time. My guess, and one I'm sure will be taken by the used car trade, is these cars will be worth considerably less than those a few weeks newer, just we never know when this is going to happen.

    Most fleet sales are indirectly subject to residuals. The uncertainty of the true market value (not the 50% residual guarantee) is just too unpredictable :( and will bump the effective finance prices up.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    32no
    Tesla seems to be intentionally keeping the European prices lower, since today they increased option prices everywhere and changed base prices as well, but they didn't increase overall European prices. They seem to be holding a general discount of ~10% as of today. Here I have charts with Norwegian prices (krone) and Euro prices compared to prices in the US. Note that I included the regulatory and documentation fee for all cars, I also excluded the 21% VAT from Netherlands cars and options. I used the most recent exchange rates.

    European prices.png
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    jhm
    Up 70 from 143 a year ago looks like 50% growth to me. Maybe we'll hit 320 next March.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    maoing
    I think that would be a good strategy for survival and SP. Priority wise, the sales volume is more important than gross margin. Especially in 2015, with low oil price, weak euro and weak China demand, it�s suicide to increase european price by 10%. The same applies for today�s 70D release, pricing wise, it�s a discount compared to85D, but it can boost the demand. It�s very challenging for TM to gain enough demand to achieve 55K guidance, glad Elon and TM are taking a serial of stepsto mitigate the risk.


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  • Apr 8, 2015
    Auzie
    Thanks for the data, quite informative.

    I second that.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    pGo
    Thanks. Very helpful. It will be difficult for TM to beat the margins with such prices, but yes, volume has to be the 1st priority. These prices also say Tesla does not take 50K or 100K demand taken for granted.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    maoing
    Agree, demand is an issue for TM and it's not as strong as expected. With mix of 70D, I expect US GM will be 25%, EU 15%, China 20% (inventory sale with very light margin). So the TM's GM will be 20% or slightly higher compared to 30% projection. Then TM won't be able to generate positive cash flow in Q3, Q4 is possible but won't be very significant. I guess pricing is the secret weapon Elon mentioned in last CC, this is the last resort to stimulate demand by the cost of GM.

    With staggering spending projection and less cash flow generation than expection, what will TM do next? I think financing is very possible in this year and possible around the corner in April. What do your guys think?

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  • Apr 8, 2015
    pGo
    I don't believe now is the time for another offering. If they do it, market won't receive it well. Looking at the recent news from Elon, it is hard to predict what's next but best time would be to do it after showing M3 prototype and start reservation.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    SteveG3
    While it seems gross margins will be down, I strongly doubt they will be 20%. Just focusing on the Model S, I suspect the U.S. will be 30% GM and roughly 65% of deliveries, the EU ~20% GM and 25% of deliveries, and China 25% GM and ~10% of deliveries. That comes to 27% GM overall for the Model S. The Model X will likely be nearly all U.S. deliveries, and I don't know of any reason to think margins for this year's 5K or so X will be any lower than what Tesla thought they'd be in February of this year when Tesla expected to be cash flow positive around Q3 or Q4.

    If Tesla is down 3% on GM on 50K Model S with an ASP of $100K, that comes to about $150 million less cash this year than they thought at guidance in February. I think this is the high side of a possible reduction in cash, as they likely saw currency risk at the time guidance was given, and this may have already been accounted for. Even if it is as much as $150 million less cash this year than Tesla thought, I don't see this as necessitating a capital raise. Perhaps they will decide to do the securitization they discussed related to the lease program to pick up a bit more cash.

    fwiw, I ball parked these numbers based on the fact that they are getting hurt with currency rates in Europe, and having to pay for some charging expenses for customers in China, partially offset by the price increase in the EU, and the strong popularity of the high margin P85D, and D in general.
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    Cobos
    Also keep in mind the Norwegian krone is essentially pegged to oil prices. So a $15-$20 increase in barrel price will make the GM much better for Norway. Adding $15 to the price of oil before Q415 strikes me as fairly reasonable.

    Cobos
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  • Apr 8, 2015
    Model 3
    The price in NOK already has got a around 10% increase since nov. 14.
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    AustinPowers


    Unfortunately the IE9 that I have here at work completely messes up the Design Studio so that I can't configure or indeed see anything clearly, but at least the base price for the new 70D is shown as 75.800 Euro which is considerably more than the Dutch price of 64.120 Euro.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Basically correct on the second part, the majority of cars from middle class up are registered as company cars, with some luxury cars like Ferraris that number can go up as high as 100%. (Although no one has yet convinced me why a Ferrari should be eligable as a company car - unless you own a luxury car hire service).

    And yes, Tesla should be willing to negotiate on prices. Germans aren't generally well known to haggle a lot, but the more expensive the product, the higher the willingness to not accept the price shown at face value. And as apart from a house a car is the most expensive thing that most people over here ever buy in their lives, the willingness to negotiate the price is very high. Of course some people buy cars at the sticker price, but they seem to be a small minority. Especially as it is well known that one can easily get discounts of at least around 10 percent, with some more unpopular models discounts can go up as high as 40 percent, expecially on foreign cars or those that a nearing a model change (and by that I don't mean new model year, but "mark x+1" model, like with the current VW Touran that is soon to be replaced by the Mark II model, which is not just a facelift but a completely new Touran).
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    schonelucht
    That's because by law prices for consumers have to include VAT (21%) in the Netherlands (actually I believe the same is true for Germany, no?) while US prices are generally listed without applicable sales taxes. Taxes obviously don't contribute to gross margins so that's why no32 used those in his comparison.
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    Newb
    That's exactly the point, Robert. And looking at the Q1 registrations I'm not satisfied, but content, given the odds TM is facing over here.

    To give you some perspective, first I'd like to provide you with some numbers regarding Q1 sales in the luxury sedan segment (Oberklasse):
    • 7,740 new cars registered (6,710 company/fleet cars)
    • TOP 5: MB S-Class (1,848), MB CLS-Class (1,315), Audi A7/S7 (1,279), Audi A8/S8 (1,091), BMW 6 series (470)
    • Tesla Model S ranks #9 with 294 new registrations

    =>Roughly 87% of Q1 registrations (i.e. 6,700) were company or fleet cars (gewerbliche Halter). But it's not all "fleet cars" in that segment. It's a quite heterogeneous group:
    • Dealerships are registering cars for their employees as company cars or for test drives or for selling those cars further to customers (Tageszulassung) [keep in mind that dealership networks are huge; MB has well over 1,000 official dealerships in the country]
    • Individuals owning their own company (or "self-employed" persons) register new cars as company cars
    • And of course, all sorts of enterprises and companies, public authorities, etc. buy and register their cars as company cars / fleet cars

    This means, in turn, that each quarter just about 1,000 cars of the luxury sedan segment are bought by private customers here in Germany. This is a tiny market. In this private customer list, Tesla ranks quite well in Q1 private customer registrations, given the above and the national brand bias:
    #1 MB S-Class with 270 units
    #2 MB CLS-Class with 199 units
    #3 Audi A7/S7 with 170 units
    #4 Tesla Model S with 84 units (Thereby, among private customers in the 75-125k� price segment, Model S is more popular than Porsche Panamera, BMW 6 series, BMW 7 series, Audi A8/S8, Jaguar XJ, Maserati Quattroporte, Chevy Corvette, all Aston Martins, Bentleys etc.)

    More important points:
    ...Car fleet managers also prefer to do business with car companies which offer a broad range of cars for different segments. Tesla has only one model on offer.
    ...Private individuals who are able to afford a 80k+ car, usually get a fleet/company car (MB, Audi, BMW) which they normally use for their private purposes as well

    To sum up, because Tesla Motors...
    ...is primarily targeting the BEV early-adopter private customer who's able and willing to drop 80k+ private money for a car and is not provided with a fleet/company car by the employer (=total German market size is 1,000 units per quarter)
    ...is not (yet) in the position to conquer the car fleet market
    and
    ...has to withstand FUD and national car brand bias... it is facing troubles to sell more Model S in Germany.

    But I'm still very optimistic about TM in Germany, because middle and upper-middle class segments (35-65k �, i.e. MB C-/E-Class; BMW 3,4,5, Audi A4,A5,A6) are HUGE over here. Personally, I'd never spend 80k or more on a car, but I'll be first in line for Model 3. Plus, Model S is way too big for many parking lots and garages.

    MX will do better than MS, too, because luxury SUVs are much more popular than luxury sedans among private customers (competitors: Porsche Macan/Cayenne; MB ML/GLE Class; Audi Q5/Q7, BMW X5/X6).
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    Auzie
    Negotiation does not have to focus on price. I would much prefer to see Tesla negotiate some creative service deals with fleet managers, like installing superchargers at agreed locations and keep the principle of no haggling on price intact.
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    Newb
    I've updated some numbers in the wiki for European registrations in Q1. The final number should be around 3,500 units.

    Demand for Model S is increasing throughout Europe (record registration numbers everywhere you look),
    and popularity in Scandinavia and Benelux is really impressive:

    ->In Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and Netherlands Tesla Model S outsold all competitors in its class. (MB S/CLS, Audi A7/A8, BMW 6/7 series, Porsche Panamera).
    ->In Norway the MS outsold all other BEVs (except for the e-golf). In Denmark and Netherlands, the MS outsold all other BEVs.
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    AustinPowers
    Exactly my point. Under those circumstances, current Model S sales numbers seem quite good actually. Especially when considering that it sold more than formerly popular luxury cars like the BMW 7 series or Audi's A8/S8 - that fact actually surprised me a bit to be honest.

    By the way, thanks for that excellent and informative post.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ah, ok. I thought as we were talking about why Tesla has a hard time selling its cars in Germany and because price including VAT is what matters to (private) customers, we were comparing prices incl. VAT.
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    hobbes
    Great, thanks. - We are still missing numbers from Switzerland, anyone got them?
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  • Apr 9, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Just to come with some observations on the S70D:

    The introduction of the S70D will likely lead to significantly increased demand in Norway. Without the S70D, we would likely have seen a lull in reservations and deliveries until the Model X becomes available, due to the NOK/USD situation and that the initial early adopter demand has been met. I consider the S70D an *excellent* alternative for the Norwegian customer. From the viewpoint of a typical Norwegian customer, I can see no major downside to the S70D compared to the S85D, yet the S70D is almost 10k USD cheaper. This wipes out the NOK/USD changes over the past few months, and brings a lot of potential customers back to the table.

    The S60 on the other hand was compromised in a bunch of ways that would put off Norwegian customers, and hence why they sold almost none of them. I think it's realistic that Tesla in Norway could achieve a 30% share of S70D, with almost none of these buyers jumping down from the S85D. That should amount to around 300-400 sales each quarter that they otherwise wouldn't have had.

    Now, that's not to say we will see Tesla soar to new sales heights. This may just fill the gap between the P85D/S85D and the Model X, sustaining sales at near current levels. (Though when the Model X comes, with these sales added on top of the Model X sales and the other Model S sales, this might result in some superb sales numbers for a while.)
    �
  • Apr 9, 2015
    Johann Koeber
    Yes in Germany the prices must include the VAT, which is 19 % on cars.
    �
  • Apr 9, 2015
    techmaven
    Interesting perspective. The S70D has the potentially to dramatically lower the ASP globally. It will be interesting to see what customers opt for in the next couple of quarters. Even a year ago, the Supercharger network was not as extensive in many places and buying a 85 kWh battery was considered a necessity. Now, maybe not so much, although northern places like Norway will likely always opt for bigger battery sizes due to far stronger cold weather effects. Therefore, the ASP mix in Norway is going to be very interesting.
    �
  • Apr 9, 2015
    daniel Ox9EFD
    Another take on this - Let me explain: In Norway there is a larger proportion on the population that can afford a Tesla than in the US (it is effectively half priced, equivalent to being ~$35k in US). In the US more Tesla buyers are from a small subset of the population - wealthy first movers. And wealthy first movers are more accepting to a shorter range car.
    In Norway people who are not in the wealthy first mover subset also buy Tesla's, people who are upper middle class.

    So
    1. Tesla can sell to a broader audience than wealthy first movers, if the price is right. Which is good for model 3.
    2. People who are not of that subset expect a larger range.
    �
  • Apr 9, 2015
    Johan
    I think you are correct in this analysis, and as Yggdrasil was saying too: with the 70D Tesla will expand their customer base in Norway, rather than cannibalize their own sales.

    Figures came out just now showing that 23% of new cars sold in March 2015 in Norway where plugin cars, most of these pure BEVs. So the addressable market is large, even for a small country.
    �
  • Apr 10, 2015
    mostapasta
    Getting back to sales... Switzerland was posted. Looks like this will be the best month and quarter for Europe so far (even without my UK guess)!
    Capture.PNG
    �
  • Apr 10, 2015
    slcuervo
    One per month in Spain, not bad, LOL :)
    �
  • Apr 10, 2015
    Robert.Boston
    Moderator's Note

    I moved a set of posts about the 70D announcement that did not pertain to the EU over to S70D investor implications
    �
  • Apr 10, 2015
    schonelucht
    What's especially promising about this quarter is the broad growth outside the two traditionally strong countries. Despite neither Norway nor the Netherlands having their biggest quarter by far, increased deliveries elsewhere made up sufficiently to easily reach the best European quarter ever accounting for 33% of global sales.

    europe.png

    - - - Updated - - -

    For the current quarter, we should expect at least 3800 cars in Europe. If previous quarters are a guide we are looking at 800/1200/1800 cars for April/May/June.
    �
  • Apr 10, 2015
    Newb
    Thanks for the diagramm schonelucht!

    Looking at the Q1 registrations/sales reaffirms that in most European markets (except for Germany) Model S is more popular than most of the equally sized and priced competitors from other premium brands in the 75-135k price range.

    As in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway, in Switzerland, too, the Model S outsold BMW 6/7 series, Audi A7/A8, Porsche Panamera, MB CLS Class and equivalent. (with only one exception for Switzerland: MB S-Class which is slightly ahead).

    Here's some numbers from the official statistics of Netherlands and Switzerland, which are very detailed and have great archives. I mined the Q1 numbers from the bigger tables for a comparison of top 4 models in the segment in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

    Netherlands:


    		 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
    #1 BMW 6 series (136) Tesla Model S (213) Tesla Model S (407)
    #2 Audi A7/S7 (60) Porsche Panamera (169) MB S-Class (142)
    #3 Audi A8/S8 (55) MB S-Class (131) Porsche Panamera (46)
    #4 MB CLS-Class (52) BMW 7 series (61) BMW 6 series (45)
    Switzerland:

    		 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
    #1 MB CLS-Class (151) Maserati Ghibli (145) MB S-Class (240)
    #2 BMW 6 series (93) Tesla Model S (133) Tesla Model S (198)
    #3 Audi A7/S7 (62) MB S-Class (129) MB CLS-Class (197)
    #4 MB S-Class (47) MB CLS-Class (120) Maserati Ghibli (117)
    If you think about it for a minute, this is the beginning of a paradigm shift in the European premium/luxury large sedan segment. A total newcomer in the automobile industry conquers the whole segment with only one model. Moreover, basically from start of product launch. I'm very often surprised how European and US media doesn't get this context and what's happening in the relevant segment.

    Since the premium SUV segment is slightly bigger, expect the same disruption with the X in that segment throughout Europe, too. (except for Germany, which is a quite special market / see my post further above)

    Can't wait to see what will happen to the much bigger European mid-size sedan segment in 2018/19 after the launch of the 3...
    �
  • Apr 11, 2015
    hobbes
    mostapasta, thanks for collecting the data. Did you see the wiki table we set up for everyone to add their numbers? There are differences in the totals compared to your collection. Didn�t have time to check yet where they come from, maybe you can help to cross check and put in yours if you got a better source! Thanks.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yes, thanks! Much better to make out trends in a graphic than just looking at tables.

    Good analysis. Had thought that Tesla was only doing real well in Norway, but this looks great!
    �
  • Apr 11, 2015
    jkirkebo
    Actually 23.4% of car registrations in March 2015 was BEVs alone. With PHEVs closer to 30% I would guess.
    �
  • Apr 11, 2015
    sundaymorning

    Great work on the guesstimates and extrapolations.
    �
  • Apr 11, 2015
    Model 3
    No, not according to elbil.no: http://elbil.no/nyheter/elbiler/3508-1-av-4-biler-i-mars-var-en-elbil

    (Google translated - tried to clean up a bit :p )
    But on the other hand, I have also seen reports that reports BEV's at 24%, but that may be some kind of misunderstanding/misinterpretations/mixing the results of EV vs BEV?
    �
  • Apr 11, 2015
    Johan
    Where did you get your figure?
    �
  • Apr 12, 2015
    matbl
    Very interesting. Is it possible from the complete set of data to conclude if the Model S sales are additional or if it us eating into the numbers for the other brands?
    �
  • Apr 12, 2015
    smac
    I'd be interested to know too. I definitely get a sense here in the UK people are stretching up from an E class or 5 series rather than cross shopping against an S class or 7 series.
    �
  • Apr 13, 2015
    Newb
    Good points. I'll dig that up again to check but I had the feeling the segment was getting bigger in the said countries over the course of the last few years while it almost disappeared in Scandinavia. It is plausible (and certainly true on the basis of anecdotal evidence) that people are stretching up from E-Class or BMW 5 series, but it's still annoying to MB, BMW, Audi, Maserati that those people don't consider stretching up to their large premium sedans. On a counterfactual note, if Tesla never had been founded, would they stretch up to BMW 6/7 series or CLS/S-Class today? Not easy to proof that they'd not.
    �
  • Apr 13, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Here are some numbers for Norway. To me it seems like Tesla sales have for the most part increased the size of the premium segment. One thing to remember though is that BMW has been boosted significantly by the i3 in 2014 and 2015. This is the cheapest car BMW offers in Norway. Without the i3, BMW would have ended up around 5% in 2014/2015.

    The big loser seems to be Audi. They are also the only company in this comparison without a BEV in their current lineup.

    And one thing not covered in these statistics is the used car import. It's quite common to import a 2-3 year old BMW from Germany, that way you get the cars cheaper and there's much less tax. There's probably been a significant impact here.

    Sales by brand, actual number






































    2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
    BMW 7325 6876 9602 2070
    Audi 8321 7511 7077 1374
    Mercedes 5616 6091 6603 1572
    Tesla 32 1986 4042 1532
    Total 15678 22464 27324 6548
    Sales by brand, percentages






































    2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
    BMW 5.3 4.8 6.7 (5.3)* 5.9 (5.0)*
    Audi 6.0 5.3 4.9 3.9
    Mercedes 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.4 (4.0)*
    Tesla 0.0 1.4 2.8 4.3
    Total 15.4 15.8 19.0 (17.6)* 18.5 (17.2)*
    *Numbers excluding the BMW i3 BEV and Mercedes B-class BEV.
    �
  • Apr 13, 2015
    mrdoubleb
    Wow... to see it like that. And remember, Tesla did all that with just 1 car. BMW, Audi, Mercedes that's all multiple vehicles across a series of price points.
    �
  • Apr 13, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Yes, it's impressive. Though it's doubtful Tesla will be able to maintain the percentage from Q1 2015 through to the end of the year, even counting in some Model X deliveries and a lot of 70D deliveries. Next year should be very nice, though. :)
    �
  • Apr 14, 2015
    matbl
    Please do, it would be very interesting.

    Well, since I'm one of those who stretched from a BMW 5-series (520d) to a S85 I can tell you that I'd never stretch for a 6/7. Simply not worth it...
    �
  • Apr 14, 2015
    Just a Reader
    I don't claim to have a special insight into the market but I believe that few people buy an A8, a MB S-Class or a 7 series privately in Germany. These cars are considered to be conspicuous, unwieldy in size and inflexible in their use. People will rather buy a packed E-Class ( the sign at the heck showing the engine size is usually left away), a 5-series, an Audi Allroad etc. Plenty of these cars are station wagons which aren't available as an S-Class. Plenty of enthusiasts buy something like an E-Class 350 CDI for everyday motorway use and an 911 for fun. There are simply far more options than with Tesla.
    If you want to have a long distance BEV, then you simply have no other option than to buy the Model S.
    �
  • Apr 14, 2015
    smac
    UK Figures are in for 2014:

    697 Cars in total.
    �
  • Apr 15, 2015
    vgrinshpun
    Do you have the breakdown Q1/Q2?
    Thanks
    �
  • Apr 15, 2015
    mostapasta
    By my calculation:
    Q2 - 192
    Q3 - 282
    Q4 - 223
    �
  • Apr 15, 2015
    smac

    Agree. TESLA MODEL S - How Many Left?

    TBH it's a little disappointing because Q3 includes a lot of pre-order cars. Q2 was basically all the cars they could get out the door in under a month.

    The 70D announcement, and delays to the P85D will put a big dent in the Q2 UK figures. (A few people cancelling S85s and S60s to go for the 70D, which is a good fit for the UK market range requirements in my view.)

    So I'm expecting Q3 '2015 to be higher when the D cars arrive.
    �
  • Apr 22, 2015
    schonelucht
    Hertz is expanding their Tesla S rental fleet in Europe. After Amsterdam, you can now also rent them from Brussels Airport for the same flat 250EUR/day price. Hopefully there is some more scope for demand in this evolution. Both directly in cars purchased by Hertz and indirectly by Hertz customers who learn about the Tesla through a rental.
    �
  • Apr 23, 2015
    Car4CivilizedAge
    Positive news from Norway: European lawmakers(EFTA surveillance authority) has approved sales tax exemption also from leasing of EV 's. State and municipal companies are already planning their EV fleets. This is very good news. Expect stronger Tesla fleet sales in Norway!
    �
  • Apr 24, 2015
    SteveG3
    At least by one person's report on Reddit, prices going up in EuroZone this week (wrote of receiving an email from Tesla- anyone else get an email?). Looks like good news on margins going forward, suggestive of strength in demand as well. Thanks to "Fanatic" for starting a thread about this outside the investors section.

    Tesla to raise prices in Europe : teslamotors
    �
  • Apr 24, 2015
    Earlian
    Seams true, third raise since I got my MX reservation and THAT is hard.

    When I got the reservation, the Tesla communication where always, single digit percentage higher price then Model S.

    Last summer that meant 80k+max 8=88k

    Next Monday the same configuration (and its not ALL-in and no P!) will mean: 98k+max9,8= 107.000 �!

    That's almost 20.000� (worst case)more cash to pay on a car, most people wouldn't even consider to buy so expensive.

    I know, it is good for tesla, but it will make lot of "normal" people think twice, because they reach a psychological price wall.

    Hopefully the X won't take much longer and they have a really good idea, on how to catch European reservation holders, that waited that long time.

    I did took it stumbled with my decision, not to buy a (lot cheaper) D in October and it seems, I totally chose the wrong door this time.

    Others in Europe with that problem ?
    �
  • Apr 29, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    Tesla employees in Norway are confirming that there is a 7-8% price increase that's right around the corner.

    This definitely won't do wonders for the sales numbers. A Model S is becoming more and more expensive relative to the competitors that the middle class here would consider.

    One good thing however is that it should do wonders for the margins. After the price increase, a Model S will cost 2-3% more here than in the US, so including shipping the margins should be about as good here as in the US.

    For me personally, a Model X is looking less and less likely. Initially was considering the Model X equivalent to the 85D, which almost immediately started becoming too expensive, until it was definitely too expensive. Then the 70D launched which was again within budget, and now *it* is very close to being too expensive.

    I may have to wait for a Model 3 crossover. Though I am keeping my reservation until I see what the pricing will be.
    �
  • Apr 29, 2015
    AustinPowers
    This will potentially hit sales numbers in Germany even harder, as price sensitivity is even higher here.

    Interestingly, on our company ideas portal, where employees can make suggestions for optimizing all kinds of things, a few days ago a fellow employee suggested converting our company car fleet from its current mixed ICE lineup to an all Tesla Model S lineup.

    Unfortunately, the published comments by those who have a say in this focus on "this is far to expensive, our average fleet car price is somewhere in the 40K Euro range. Plus it wouldn't look good with our customers, if our salespeople arrived in such expensive cars, when the head of the customer company only drives a Passat, E-class or 5-series diesel for example".

    Still, around 100 fellow employees so far have voted pro Tesla Model S anyway (myself included) :)
    �
  • Apr 29, 2015
    Earlian
    You are both right. Perhaps I can't afford the MX in the end, while the price got to high here in Germany.

    The case is, tesla don't need the German market by now, so it will probably stay our problem.
    �
  • Apr 29, 2015
    schonelucht
    Belgian sales people are saying the same thing and urging prospective buyers to lock in the price by putting down a deposit.

    In the rest of Europe with less generous benefits, the Tesla isn't a middle class car at all so impact may be a bit more tempered. We'll see soon enough : changes in pricing the coming weeks should start showing up in deliveries around August.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    32no
    Tesla raised prices in Europe sometime in the last couple of days. The discount is no longer 10%. In Norway, the discount is about 3%, and in the Netherlands, its about 1.5%.

    Current:
    tesla prices.png
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    schonelucht
    For what it is worth, Tesla NL bought 600 preconfigured cars from HQ at the old price which they will be offering to new buyers over the coming weeks/months. Hopefully they got the OK for that from the US and this isn't a Chine debacle all over again.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    Matias
    This will hit sales.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    FluxCap
    This is going to be good for bottom line revenues / ASP / EPS numbers in the short term, and is a wise move. Price raises also mean demand remains very strong, as we know.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    Bgarret
    Any news on monthly deliveries. I know Tesla is going to disclose quarterly, but the monthly numbers in Europe might be nice for the earnings call.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    Krugerrand
    It will affect those who are price sensitive/right on the edge of being able to afford the car. It won't affect Tesla's ability to hit 2015 company sales guidance.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    FluxCap
    It really won't. Tesla would not raise prices if demand for every car they can ship was an issue.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    AustinPowers
    Perhaps we should rephrase: it will certainly hit sales, but only in markets that Tesla currently doesn't seem to need to meet their sales targets.
    But someday, only building the cars in Dollar-territory might become quite risky. Especially once Model 3 arrives.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    Krugerrand
    And we know what Tesla's plans are; factory in Europe and China, so they've already thought of that.
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    32no
    No it won't. If anything, it just pulled sales ahead. There's been rumors and various exchanges with Service Reps that price increases are coming in countries which had unfavorable exchange rate changes. People had plenty of time between then and now to order their car before the price increase. So no, it won't hit overall sales, especially since Tesla Netherlands (thanks Schonelucht) has 600 pre-configured cars at the old price (and I'm sure some of those cars might be shipped to other service centers in Europe).
    �
  • May 3, 2015
    Yggdrasill
    The price increase wasn't nearly as high as suggested beforehand. A 70D went from 555.200 NOK to 563.200 NOK, or an increase of 1.44%.

    I don't think this will affect sales very much here. Of course, we still haven't seen the effects of the previous price increases, which were much more significant, so we'll have to wait and see. Those price increases were before the launch of the 70D, though, which hopefully might balance out the drop in demand for 85/85D/P85D.
    �
  • May 4, 2015
    Gerardf
    I see no figures yet for NL and Belgium. But Sweden already reported :

    April 2015 : 75 (2014 was 21)
    YTD 2015 : 213 (2014 was 53)

    The previous Q1 total I had for Sweden + 75 did add up to more than 213. Looking back the March report now mentions 138 for Q1.

    Source : Topplistan april 2015
    And for all months : Topplistor per mnad 2015
    �
  • May 4, 2015
    Matias
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