Oct 14, 2014
Realist I am really impressed by the upgrades on the Model S.
The P85D feels like a nuclear assault on the current establishment, more so than the old P85 at it's time.
I don't see any weak demand for a very long time.�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil So, I suspect when you get the chance you will be giving it a test drive again? I know the Top Speed was also one of your original concerns. Does 155 fit a little more in line with what you were thinking about? How do you think that other people in Germany will take the new changes, and do you think we will finally see decent penetration into there?
- - - Updated - - -
That's 250 KPH... but the question still stands.�
Oct 14, 2014
Realist I think the P85D is a game changer for the european market, not only because of the higher topspeed.The DualMotor will give the car a massive step forward in terms of handling. It's in a different league now.
I always expected Elon to introduce 4-wheel drive. But the 700hp upgrade f�r 13.000 � is just to attractive to ignore.�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil Good to know, thanks for the insight!�
Oct 14, 2014
FluxCap Impressive! What are the indicators that made you jump in?�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur Hello Realist,
interesting how you changed your mind.
Why do you think is 140K � Model S (If you take stuff like leather and pano-roof) is a game changer in Europe? I can get RS7 and still have enough money left 200-300K Kilometer or even more as you get 10-15% discount. Problem is that these 3,2 Seconds are cool but you cant drive this way for hours (if you want to reach your destination) so acceleration is not everything if you cant drive the car at high speed for longer periods, real life is not just drag-race. Sometimes i drive 250+ Kmh for 100 Km almost non stop (Sauerlandlinie) is im visiting customer.
I would like remind you that bears turn bulls at a peak of the trend. Its not about Model S, its about valuation.�
Oct 14, 2014
MikeC I love when Realist gets bullish.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan Me too! You could say he's finally getting real
�
Oct 14, 2014
Realist That was always my point! Why buying a Model S when you can have a Superfast RS6 for the same money?
The Dual Motor Model S changes everything. The torque vectoring of these concept opens a whole new world and the RS7 will corner like your grandmother's bed by comparison. Look at the SLS electric and the new P85D is almost there for a quarter of the price. Unbelievable!
Also it's a giant leap forward regarding power and torque. I think up to 200kph the P85D will be hard to beat even by the strongest German titans.
Anyway, there is nothing like this. It's like Darth Vader being reborn as a car.�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur Correct me but wasnt there some data for quarter mile on P85D that wasnt quite stellar i.e more then M5, dont beat me if im wrong me, i think i saw it somewhere but cant rememer where.
Problem is, how long can you drive it before its toned down due to overheating?
Anyway the market for RS Type cars is small, its more about Halo-cars.
Another problem i see is that norway subsidies will run out by March 2015, just as Ds start arriving in Norway.�
Oct 14, 2014
ggr There's a big difference between "wait for it to cool down" and "replace the non-warrantied clutch".�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil With the new dual motor I would be interested to see what the new power curve for efficiency is, it looks to be much more shallow than before. But I don't see why on a full charge you wouldn't be able to drive full speed and get at least 100KM... To the best of my calculations you should be able to hit that right now with the less efficient Model S and going 130.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan Flat out wrong. Just pointing this out so you don't make investments based on erraneous info.�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur Hello Johann,
care to elaborate?�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil You know I keep seeing people post this information from time to time and I am really glad you are there to shoot it down with your first hand knowledge�
Oct 14, 2014
Newb I'm just wondering if you got that info right on the new P85D. Here's a quick comparison of the P85D specs to the RS7 you've mentioned:
Just to make sure we're talking about real-world facts: If you go 250kph in the Audi RS7 for 100 kilometers on the Autobahn, you burn 25 litres of gasoline on that stretch alone. That short travel costs you 40 Euro (gas only) and reduces your range from around 700 kilometers with a full tank to 450 kilometers, given that your normal average consumption is around 10-11 litres/km. So, to sum up, the Tesla is more fun, more powerful and much more efficient. I'd therefore agree with Realist that it's a game changer since there's not much reason left to opt more the Audi.
Model S P85D MY2015
Audi RS7 MY2015
kw/BHP
515 / 700
412 / 560
0-100 kph
3,4 s
3,9 s
topspeed
250 kph
250 kph
Fuel cost per 100km at 100kph
6 Euro (0 Euro with Supercharging)
15 Euro
price in Germany
112.000 Euro (incl. tech package and air suspension)
114.000 Euro (base price)
CO2 emissions
zero (renewable energy is easy to get and even cheaper than standard utility power)
221 g per kilometer
Now, if you ask me, I'd rather have that juicy P85D.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan The current situation, where EVs are exempt from both all car-specific purshase tax as well as VAT has no definitive end date set. When this was all decided politically it was said that the whole thing would be "taken up for reconsideration" either in 2017 or when there had been 50.000 BEVs registrered in Norway. Everything points to that the 50.000 cars registered will occur before 2017. There is a new government in Norway since when these rules came in to effect, but this new government does not seem to have a very different view on the importance of EV adoption. There is no official word, but most of the debate and expert opinion on this matter there are rumors that there might be an 8% VAT added in 2016, 12% in 2017, 16% in 2018 and so on. When it comes to the first-time-registration-tax which for regular cars, especially heavy cars, cars with large engines and cars with high CO2-emission, constitutes a substantial ammount of the purchase price less is known or rumored. As long as EVs emitt 0 g of CO2 this tax comes to 0.�
Oct 14, 2014
Ingenieur You get 15% discount on RS7 without asking, and its almost fully loaded, for P85D, you pay another 15K for stuff like leather seats and interior, spoiler, winter package, pano-roof.
I thought the price in Europe was higher for some reason, my bad, so the gap is not so big.
Do you have info on acceleration 0 to 150 or 200 Kmh?
Btw. now the Euro and Krone have lost close to 10% in value against $, how would it eat into margins?
Tesla barely hedges thier transactions it appears, Q2 they had extraordinary earnings of 10 Millions as Dollar fell.
There were no major long term hedges on derivates balance sheet either.
Looks like im turning into new devils advocate here, pass the torch lol.�
Oct 14, 2014
Johan I would argue that their hedge is that they are buying a whole lot of batteries from Panasonic and are, from what I've gathered, paying in Yen. So if the dollar strengthens they have less profit on sales outside of US but lower cost of batteries and vice versa.�
Oct 14, 2014
chickensevil No the P85D comes with the upgraded new seats that you can only get with the P85D right now and the cost is built in. I would consider the P85D almost fully loaded as well given all the upgrades it comes with.�
Oct 15, 2014
Realist They offer massive discounts on the big power limos. That says it all. Nobody wants these cars anymore.
Regarding the stock price: It has come down a lot from 290$ and seniment wise we are in the woods. We could see a nice ipswing from here in the market and in Tesla.�
Oct 17, 2014
Mitthrawnuruodo Very cool to watch this thread over the years. Realist you made me mad in the past (haha) but this is epic. A lot of my friends are coming around with the P85D. You just can't deny that they are capable of beating the whole industry at this their own game.
What gets me is that the P85D accelerates about as fast as a McLaren F1 which is HALF the weight (2,500 lbs) and they have approximately the same horsepower. It is only .3 seconds slower in the quarter mile.�
Apr 10, 2015
artsci Ignorance is bliss.
This is the first time I have read your posts and it will be the last. Nothing to learn from reading nonsense.�
Apr 10, 2015
AudubonB Artsci: you might do better were you to read the OP's current thread, which is something like "Realist gets Real", and relates how happy and impressed he is with the Model S he finally purchased.�
Apr 10, 2015
Auzie How not surprising.�
Apr 10, 2015
chickensevil A lot has changed with him since 2013. He has gone long a few times now and last he posted he was currently long the stock. He is also now an owner of the P85D.�
Apr 10, 2015
JRod0802 Link is here:
Realist gets Real ;-)
�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist Hi there!
I believe this is the perfect time to short again.
The stock has gone up by 70% in one month because of Model 3.
No matter what we will see today chances are high the stock will fall sharply.
We could even see prices below 100 again in a few months from now.
I think with Model 3 arrival demand for Model S will fall therefore compressing margins even further.
Expectations are skyhigh, you can feel the greed.�
Mar 31, 2016
JRP3 That's a typo right? You meant below 200, right?�
Mar 31, 2016
Discoducky Please do what you feel is right. No worries. Pease let us know when your position is placed.�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist 230,56 short
There is a 11% yield in the borrowed equity. Huge demand out there to go short.�
Mar 31, 2016
neroden If the stock really does go below 100, great buying opportunity. Long-term longs can see that the company has a higher *buyout value* (to Apple or Google) than that. So I seriously doubt that will happen.�
Mar 31, 2016
Fallenone Brilliant thesis.�
Mar 31, 2016
Svetlin Please don't risk your money based on this false statement. The stock is slightly down YTD, just like Nasdaq, and it followed the exact same (only exaggerated) path down into February and then up as every major index and the market as a whole. This was all due to macro-related events, like China slowing growth and further collapse of oil prices.
The run up since mid February was not caused by Model 3, as you will find out soon enough.�
Mar 31, 2016
Zythryn Thank you for helping to pay for my new house!�
Mar 31, 2016
austinEV Terrible. We are trading at the long term 200day. The rise from Feb tracked the indices exactly. There is no unique TSLA run up. Did NFLX rise in march due to the m3 reveal too? You are hearing excitement, not greed.�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist I had Tesla shares for quite some time.
I have to say that earnings have been a huge dissapointment.
This is still a cash burner and I see no reason for Model 3 to change that. So what's next? This is all we have been waiting for. There is no catalyst no buzz anymore. Model 3 is here in a few hours. And it's just another car. There will ne no IPhone moment.
I think TSLA could easily drop to 100 again. This is a perfect short setup.�
Mar 31, 2016
Svetlin It's just another car, like the Model S is just another car. It's your funeral.�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist Yeah sold mine by the way.
Happy to drive something real again.�
Mar 31, 2016
theschnell It's not just another car... I have never heard of people taking half a day off work so they can line up outside in the cold and occasionally rain to buy a car they have never even seen before.
It's the beginning of revolution. But to your point, it will take some time and some vision, and the market is impatient and has no vision. So I don't know for sure where the price goes in the short term. However, the short interest being so high definitely works against you going short. Just saying...�
Mar 31, 2016
Realist The revolution is already here. That is the Model S. It is the first usable electric car. Including supercharging.
Still no real "Disruption". Still many ICEs around.�
Mar 31, 2016
SFOTurtle Yeah, sure. That's why I have friends of mine calling me from all over asking if I would reserve one for them since I own two Model S' and presumably would have a higher priority on the waitlist. That's why I just saw hundreds of people -- no exaggeration -- lining up on their lunch break in Dublin (that's Dublin, CA) to reserve a car they have never seen before. You're right, the Model 3 is just like any other car.�
Mar 31, 2016
JRP3 I'd say the thousands of people lining up around the world at Tesla stores to put down $1,000 US to reserve a car they've never seen is the iPhone moment. This is unprecedented in automotive history, and you think because TSLA has recovered some unwarranted losses from earlier in the year it's a good time to short? Unreal, once again.�
Mar 31, 2016
austinEV Couldn't agree more! I always try to explain how Apple is a failure! You can tell by how many PC's still exist, and non-Apple phones. I have one in my pocket! Apple failed, which is why their stock never went anywhere. Great minds think alike man.�
Mar 31, 2016
neroden Realist, you've made bad bets regarding Tesla before; maybe it's a stock you shouldn't be involved with either way? This isn't financial advice, but I generally think it makes sense for people to stay out of areas they don't understand.
You actually sold your model S and now drive a gasmobile instead? You're not normal. The vast majority of people who have tried a pure electric car prefer to drive electric cars rather than shaky, stinky, gasmobiles; I didn't assume this based on my experience, I figured this out by examining lots and lots of reviews. If you're generalizing from your personal experience regarding a situation where you're a weirdo, you're going to make really terrible bets (I learned that early).�
Mar 31, 2016
jbcarioca Why not have a quick look at what Realist said beginning this thread back in 2013. He still hasn't a clue. No disruption obviously does not include the Model S outselling S-Class, 7 series and A8 in most major worldwide markets. Why does he continue pushing on a losing litany year after year?�
Mar 31, 2016
Jonathan Hewitt Maybe he is operating under the broken clock principle? Though currently he is doing worse than a broken clock...�
Apr 1, 2016
Realist
Well thank you.
I believe many people want to take part in something big, special. Just buy an electric car and show everyone how green and forward thinking you are. Showing the world �change�. Being part of the movement.
It�s not that simple I think.�
Apr 1, 2016
neroden It has absolutely nothing to do with that. Electric cars are simply better to drive. I don't have to screw around with pumping gas; the car is fully charged every morning. The heat turns on immediately, no waiting for the engine to warm up. I can turn the car radio on with the car in the garage without any worries. Throttle response is instant, not delayed by fuel injection. The car slows down when I take my foot off the accelerator rather than disturbingly moving forward on its own. It doesn't shake, making it much more comfortable and having a smoother ride.
It's just superior. Most people recognize this. Obviously not everyone is willing to *pay extra* for it, but at the same price point, nearly everyone who's tried both recognizes that electric is superior.
If you don't recognize this, you're going to make awful financial bets and lose your shirt.
(Of course, I could be unfair; perhaps you replaced your model S with a different company's electric car.)�
Apr 1, 2016
Realist To me the Model S turned out to be meaningless.
I was much slower over long trips than in my regular car.
The power claims were totally misleading. In reality it couldn't hold a candle to the i8.
From an objective point of view apart from 0 to 60 the Model S is inferior to almost any other car in it's price class.�
Apr 1, 2016
Gerasimental This is priceless stuff, realist.�
Apr 1, 2016
Wenche Have you set a stop loss? In case at what level?�
Apr 1, 2016
Realist I doubled my position at 234 this morning. Bit early :-D
No intention to set up a stop loss so far.�
Apr 1, 2016
Newb Realist is back! ....yaaaayyyy....�
Apr 1, 2016
Johan Keep doubling down. I'm sure you'll see the 100's soon.
Just remember there's some truth to the old saying "the market can stay rational longer than you can stay solvent".�
Apr 1, 2016
jbcarioca Please don't suggest he should be realistic. We all will benefit from his losses when he's forced to cover his shorts.�
Apr 1, 2016
MikeC That's not what you were saying in 2013, when the revolution started.�
Apr 1, 2016
SFOTurtle Does anyone here think that Realist is just yanking our chain (like has always been the case)? I mean the statements he/she makes about the inferiority of the Model S and electric cars are just inane and baiting. My opinion/strong suspicion is that he hasn't shorted anything and is just trolling and in need of attention, and every time one of us responds to the inanities, it makes him feel important. Pics of trade confirmations and maybe I'll believe that he actually shorted the stock again and "doubled down" on it again.
No one could seriously or rationally say that 200k people reserving a car, 3/4 of them sight unseen standing in line for hours in many cases, within 24 hours is not a sea change event in the automotive industry. Yet that's what Realist tells us, that we should ignore our own eyes and senses and so should millions of other people.�
Apr 1, 2016
adiggs An alternative idea @SFOTurtle, is that we should be grateful for all the folks who have already sold TSLA (32M shares last I knew), as the market has a preprogrammed buy of 32M shares built into it. Listed to what they say, decide for yourself if what they're saying is connected to reality and persuasive, and don't worry about whether you can persuade them of a different point of view.
Of course they can be right, but it's all beliefs and probabilities, and I know a) that I want to be in on this trade and b) which side of this trade I want to be in on. I don't want to be on the side of this trade that says that 200k people throwing down $1000 each to buy a car in 2-4 years isn't any particular big deal
There are plenty of execution issues that could plague Tesla coming up. Besides inadequate service distribution and capacity, I'm now worried today that increasing production too slowly may be a serious problem (people are excited today, but creating a long enough waiting line will sour some subset of people and overall detract from the experience).
There IS such a thing as too big of a waiting list. I'm hoping all the incoming reservations cash plus proven demand the waiting list represents, enables Tesla to kick capacity expansion to a higher level. Today, I think that 50% YoY growth in units is too slow, and a bigger/faster plan is needed (while acknowledging this is much more than a money problem - faster than 50% YoY may not be achievable for the system).�
Apr 1, 2016
SFOTurtle I'm definitely not trying to persuade Realist of anything. I just think he enjoys baiting the forum with negative comments about the product itself and seeing people respond to his comments. Makes him feel relevant. My point was that his comments are so ridiculous, so intended to get under people's skin, that I'm skeptical of anything he says, including that he ever owned a Model S and that he is in fact shorting TSLA now. Pictures or it didn't happen (or isn't happening).�
Apr 1, 2016
mkjayakumar When he said i8 is far superior to Model S, I was convinced he is trolling�
Apr 1, 2016
SFOTurtle Bingo, perfect example of what I mean.�
Apr 2, 2016
Realist My P 85 D. The very first delivered in this region and one of the very few P 85 with Sport suspension.�
Apr 2, 2016
Realist My BMW i8. Nr. 12 worldwide
Both cars are sold.
At the moment I have a Cayman GT4 and others�
Apr 2, 2016
JRP3 I assume you've been adding to your short position with the recent price increase?�
Apr 2, 2016
SFOTurtle I would assume that he "doubled down" yet again after the price increase yesterday and since the 250,000 reservations in 24 hours, 60% of which were sight unseen. I mean, as Realist will certainly tell us, these hundreds of thousands of reservations certainly have put Tesla in a worse position than it was before, or at least it should have been priced into the stock already. More importantly, it's just a matter of time when these hundreds of thousands of people will see the light that Realist has seen, i.e., we should be buying GT4s and not wasting our time and money on the Model 3 which is nothing special.�
Apr 2, 2016
SFOTurtle Picture of some guy sitting in some i8 somewhere. How do we know that was you? How do we know you bought the car? Where's the paperwork? C'mon, these are just pics that could have been taken anywhere.�
Apr 2, 2016
Realist This should be enough, I will not post more pictures.
250.000 reservations. So what? These are refundable deposits no orders.
Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.
Of course many of you believe Tesla will disrupt the other car makers. I do not think so.
I believe the Model 3 will steal demand from the Model S. Model S backlog will basically dry out so Tesla is likely to burn even more cash. Reliabilty issues are finally kicking in. The car turns out to be unfinished and underengineered just as I always said. And it's not improving it will get worse with the Model X.
Without any positive cash flow Tesla could still turn out to be a black hole for investor.
We had this before, think Nokia, Blackberry, Yahoo, AOL, GoPro and many others......�
Apr 2, 2016
JohnSnowNW Yes, this is indeed a "short" mentality.�
Apr 2, 2016
Robertj Dear Mr Realist
I am happy to take your money
Just ordered online my model 3�
Apr 2, 2016
rdalcanto
I believe you are 100% wrong. Model 3 will INCREASE orders for the S, because so many more people are aware of Tesla now, will go test drive, won't want to wait, don't want a significantly smaller car than the S, want a hatchback, want more luxury, etc.
Size difference of S and 3.
�
Apr 2, 2016
neroden I initially thought he was a genuine misguided short-seller. At this point I think he's a troll. His claims are just too ludicrous. I mean, you can never know, Poe's Law and all, but my goodness.�
Apr 2, 2016
LargeHamCollider Yep, can't take the guy seriously but I can take his money... If he's serious.�
Apr 3, 2016
Realist So many people called me a troll before.
It's like in the good old days.�
Apr 3, 2016
rdalcanto I've been here long enough to know that you actually believe what you write, and you aren't a typical "troll". I just happen to believe you couldn't be more wrong, and I own a lot of stock to back up my opinion....�
Apr 3, 2016
JRP3 The funny thing is his initial short position was based on a huge number of false assumptions and misinformation, and apparently he's learned nothing since that time.�
Apr 3, 2016
Yggdrasill Sure, they are refundable deposits. But they do give Tesla another 250 million dollars to play with. And even if half the reservation orders cancel, the Model 3 should be sold out through 2018. And that's even assuming a near perfect ramp.
The difference is of course that Tesla is growing rapidly, and Audi is shrinking.
This is nonsense. For one thing, the fact that there are more Model 3 reservations than Model S+X deliveries and reservations combined, suggests that Tesla has a far greater appeal than you're suggesting. Another factor is that you're basically suggesting that people cross-shop a BMW 3-series and a BMW 6-series. This just doesn't happen very often. The fact is that the Model S is punishing all competitors in it's market segment, and in all probability, so will the Model 3: #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)
You're basing this on what? The rapidly falling service costs per car? (As outlined in the last conference call.)
Edit: Sorry, went back and check and it was the shareholder letter: "The cost of first year repair claims on cars produced in 2015 was at about half the level of cars produced in 2014, and about one quarter the level of cars produced in 2012."
Good thing Tesla just recieved 250 million these last three days... (Not that they particularly needed them.)�
Apr 3, 2016
neroden Wow. Poe's Law strikes again. I guess no matter how crazy the belief, someone believes it sincerely. I find it quite difficult to conceive of the warped mindset which would actually prefer a gasmobile to a Tesla of the same price, and I have proof that that mindset is very abnormal.�
Apr 3, 2016
jbcarioca I8 owner drove my P85D. Ordered a P90D same day. Need we say more?�
Apr 4, 2016
Gerardf [QUOTE="Realist, post: 1454070, member: 14308"
Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.
[/QUOTE]
Look what the main newspaper in South Germany thinks of the German car industry after the model-3 reveal :
Articles re Tesla�Fact or Fiction?
That is a (partial) explanation why Tesla's market cap is already this high compared to Audi's�
Apr 4, 2016
Zythryn So Realist, have you closed out your short position, or double down again at $245?�
Apr 4, 2016
Yggdrasill He should wait until 350 before doubling down again.�
Apr 4, 2016
Realist I do not like the price action.
Did cut the short at 247. I can live with that loss.
I still see the company and the product being overvalued but I will not fight the tape.�
Apr 4, 2016
JRP3 You saw the same thing when you first shorted years ago. Maybe shorting TSLA is not your strong suit.�
Apr 4, 2016
Johan Well hey, in the short run the stock market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. One that at the same time magically transfers money from the shorts in to my wallet.�
Apr 4, 2016
Zythryn To be fair, there are opportunities, especially in the short run, to make money shorting Tesla.
You just need to time it right and not get greedy.
Heck, if you shorted last year when Tesla was around $280 and closed the position a couple months ago you did great.
Realists problem is he misunderstands the market and the desire among many people to drive electric.
Instead, he interjects his own biased opinion and treats that as reality.�
Apr 4, 2016
Realist I did make much more money on Tesla with my longs. On the short side I was wrong most of time.
Still, time will come.
My decision to cover the short was mainly because of the reservations numbers growing and growing. I couldn't expect demand being so high.
It's not going to change my negative view on the Tesla business Model in the long run however.�
Apr 4, 2016
Zythryn Fair enough.
Even though I disagree with you on many things, especially you expansion of your subjective opinions onto a business as a whole, I appreciate your response.�
Apr 4, 2016
Sudre Realist, I hope you aren't kicking yourself too much... Altho I am sure no one could have known Tesla was going to drop the ball on deliveries.�
Apr 4, 2016
neroden What's your concept of the long run? Because in the *truly* long run, you're probably right...
In the 5-year time horizon, Tesla's got a spectacular business model which will drive dozens of other auto companies bankrupt. Namely, Tesla delivers snazzy electric cars with a long range and fast charging, and the competitors don't. And Tesla has built the supply chain to make those cars, and the competitors haven't. And Tesla has the expertise and has "debugged" all kinds of little problems in the design of those cars, and the competitors haven't yet.
In the 20-year time horizon, there are various recurring problems with Tesla management which a competitor may take advantage of to destroy them. But none of the competitors can get up to speed in 5 years. So in the 5-year timeframe, Tesla is sitting in the catbird seat.�
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