Jan 3, 2016
Benz For 2016 competition I would like to suggest that we get to predict a separate global total number of Tesla Model S deliveries, AND a separate global total number of Tesla Model X deliveries.
How to do that?
How about two separate competitions?
And each competition will have it's own thread, so that nothing will get mixed up.
Two separate results, and (probably) two separate winners.
After all, there are two different vehicles now, whereas in 2015 we already knew that there would be very few Tesla Model X deliveries (not more than 1,000).�
Jan 3, 2016
maoing I'm not sure why there are so many people want to convince themselves and novices that demand is not an issue for Tesla. Demand certainly is growing but that's not Tesla investors can be satisfied. We need demand growth exceeding expectation, guidance without sacrificing margin. Otherwise, we should not debate if 50580 met on reduced low end of guidance instead of how much Tesla can beat 55K even w/o model X. Here is my earlier reply to papafox wrt. demand constraint reasonings http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/40244-Short-Term-TSLA-Price-Movements-2015?p=1239789&viewfull=1#post1239789. I'll stop replying here. People always like to choose what they want to believe and I have no obiligation to convince them.
For 2016, the 17K model S quarterly demand like Q4 is not sustainable. But model X backlog will mitigate the demand issues. So for the Q1/Q2/Q3, TSLA SP is mainly driven by model X production rate.
�
Jan 4, 2016
Lump Favorite thread on TMC :wink:, hopefully more people will participate in 2016 so we can track their predictions.
Hopefully in the future Tesla will meet some of their goals, from 2014 second quarter shareholder letter.
�
Jan 4, 2016
Benz In February we will know how many deliveries of S/X vehicles they will guide for 2016. What are your first rough thoughts about that?�
Jan 4, 2016
AudubonB It's close to the time to put to bed the 2015 thread; here is the one for 2016. The above five posts I have extracted from the 2015 thread. Good luck and happy prognosticating to all.
My strong inclination is not to create separate threads for Models S, X and 3 but I certainly cannot stop those from showing up. This thread will serve for Tesla Motors's entire output.�
Jan 4, 2016
farzyness My prediction:
-84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
-55,330 Model S
-28,743 Model X�
Jan 4, 2016
Larken I agree with this, at least that was the rules for the two previous years of the competition that I set back then. Of course that can change, but I think we should keep it as it makes it more fun to have one winner "take it all".
In any case, the deadline for casting/modifying the vote is one week after the Q1 conference call, so no need to hurry. I'll remind everyone to vote in good time.
My vote is 78,777 delivered vehicles.�
Jan 4, 2016
Benz I didn't know I had started this thread.
I would like it if there would be a poll on top of this thread as well, just like the poll on top of the Q4 2015 prediction thread.�
Jan 4, 2016
AudubonB I started it earlier today, then pulled the relevant posts from 2015 into it. Since they preceded by age my post, they showed up first. I think anyone can place a poll on it; if not, start a poll-thread on its own and I'll merge the poll into this one.�
Jan 4, 2016
SebastianR I will go "all-in" with a very conservative estimate:
93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of
51,200 Model S
42,227 Model X
Let's see what will come of this
�
Jan 4, 2016
StapleGun 49,211 Model S
22,010 Model X
71,221 Total�
Jan 4, 2016
adiggs My belief is that if a company were ever setup to grow production fantastically quickly, it's Tesla. New product in Model X with high identified demand, and high theoretical demand, that is ready to go now (there will undoubtedly be another quarter of ramping logistics, but we're past the "when will it first be available" milestone), alongside of an existing high demand product. I believe that in 2017 there will be more X than S deliveries, with crossover happening sometime in 2016 (said another way - I expect that demand for the luxury SUV segment is higher than demand for the sedan segment).
But that's separate.
In my mind, whether somebody buys an S or X is irrelevant to Tesla, or it will be in a quarter or three when X production is ramped up.
So I don't know the mix in 2016. My belief is that it could be huge, and I'll be disappointed at anything under 75,000 (50% growth off of the ~50k 2015 delivery number).
My prediction is 65,000 (30% growth off of the 50k 2015 number). Call it the "wins should feel like wins" prediction.�
Jan 4, 2016
Benz OK
I have just added a poll on top of this thread.
Please post your precise prediction for combined total of global deliveries of Model S and Model X in 2016.
Your prediction can be adjusted anytime before Tesla announces deliveries (January 2nd 2017?).
Feel free to specify annual Model S deliveries and annual Model X deliveries, but winner will be determined based on combined total of global deliveries of Model S and Model X in 2016.
In the poll, please indicate the range that your prediction falls within.
This poll will close on 2017-01-01 at 11:48 PM Be advised that this is a public poll: other users can see the choice(s) you selected.
Thank you for your participation in this thread.
Cheers�
Jan 4, 2016
Crowded Mind Haha, I like your wording, Benz
Shouldn't the poll close a week after Q1 earnings?�
Jan 4, 2016
Grendal My prediction:
Model S: 42,000
Model X: 42,500
Model 3: 1 Prototype
Total: 84,501
Since people have been waiting for the Model X so long, it would make sense that Tesla would push a little harder in that direction. So I predict more X's than S's. Also, once the reviews start flooding in and they are spectacular then sales will see a spike just like we saw back in the early days of the S.�
Jan 4, 2016
esk8mw 55,700 s
25,100 x�
Jan 4, 2016
dc_h 82501 total
46000 S
36501 X�
Jan 4, 2016
AudubonB First guess for me: lucky 7s. 77,777�
Jan 4, 2016
Cattledog 75,870
44,000 Model S
31,870 Model X�
Jan 4, 2016
Yggdrasill 50,920 Model S
26,201 Model X
77,121 total�
Jan 4, 2016
Benz Oops, you are right.
Thanks for reminding me.
The poll closes one week after Q4 2015 earnings, because then we will know what the guidance will be for 2016 (in February 2016).�
Jan 5, 2016
RobStark
Only the extremely naive believe demand just happens to grow almost perfectly aligned with Tesla guidance for production a year ahead of schedule. With Q4 always seeing a significant jump.
Of course Tesla will prioritize 3 year old reservations/orders for Model X over 3 week old order for Model S.
That will knock down Model S production significantly below 17k in Q1.
And it may knock down Model S production below 50k because it needs to produce 27k plus Model X for customers that have been waiting for over a year.
- - - Updated - - -
I had that number weeks ago in the 2015 thread (Post 129).
Model S 50k
Model X 27,777�
Jan 5, 2016
mrdoubleb So I'll reserve my vote until after the ER, but right now my low end estimate would be 80k combined.
Here is my math (very high level) using workingdays.us to calculate business days for California. Assuming they produced 15k cars in Q4 (their goal was to clear the channel and sell 2k cars produced earlier), they should have exited 2015 at 234 cars/business day.
- Knowing the X ramp will only reach the top by the end of Q1, I took the same rate for January, totaling 4446.
- For February I took an average jump from 200ish to 400ish X per week, which brings us to 40 cars more per day, so 274 times 19 days = 5206.
- For March I added another 40 Xes per day and we have 22 business days, so that's 6908.
- For the rest of the year I went with their 1700 car average per week, which should allow for the Summer shutdown and unexpected events. 340 cars per day times 191 work days left = 64940.
- Grand total: 4446 + 5206 + 6908 + 64940 = 81500 cars produced.
Just to state the obvious, that would be a 63% growth YoY. I still believe the X will eventually have a higher demand than the S, so production capabilities permitting, this may get higher in the end.
PS: Even if they had 1800 cars per week (360 per day) coming off the lines for the entire year from day 1, with 251 work days, that's 90k cars. This does not take holidays and stand downs into account, nor does it calculate with the Model X ramp in Q1. So unless sometime during the year they decide to ramp overall production higher than previously announced, 90k is kind of a theoretical production limit.�
Jan 5, 2016
FlatSix911 Extrapolation from this graph ...
50K Model S
40K Model X
90K Total for 2016
�
Jan 5, 2016
Benz Initial guidance for 2015 was 50,000 - 55,000 (in February 2014).
That's a range of 5,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance.
Will they stick to a range of 5,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016?
Or is a wider range more likely (because the total guidance numbers for 2016 will be higher anyway, than the total guidance numbers for 2015 were)?
How about a range of 10,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016?�
Jan 5, 2016
Newb 70,980 = 49,900 Model S + 21,080 Model X�
Jan 5, 2016
Benz And if they really choose to use a range of 10,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016, then which of the three following options will they be more likely to guide for 2016:
A) 70,000 - 80,000
B) 75,000 - 85,000
C) 80,000 - 90,000�
Jan 5, 2016
AudubonB Wow - playing both sides of the number game at the same time: cute.
That is, being both responsible (one significant digit with that 5X10^4), and irresponsibly precise with that down-to-the-last vehicle 27,777. Very funny, but I think they've invented meds for that syndrome.
I went Plan A in all my earlier predictions but yours is the first I've ever seen who uses Plans A and B.
P.S. ( and almost seriously) - ?(50K + 27,777) ?77,777, as far as I can figure out. I'm pretty sure it equals 78K.�
Jan 5, 2016
yak-55 66k = 44k "S" + 22k "X"�
Jan 5, 2016
pGo 75000�
Jan 5, 2016
Ryo 47,000S
25,000X
72K total�
Jan 5, 2016
doctoxics You saw it here. 77,600 deliveries in 2016.�
Jan 6, 2016
Benz We have some data from tracking highest assigned Tesla Model S VINs from 2015 that might be interesting to consider (before making any predictions about 2016):
Highest VINs posted in the concerning thread on:
31 December 2014 - 70000
31 March 2015 - 82302
30 June 2015 - 95596
30 September 2015 - 109770
31 December 2015 - 123905
2015 Q1: 82302 - 70000 = 12302
2015 Q2: 95596 - 82302 = 13294
2015 Q3: 109770 - 95596 = 14174
2015 Q4: 123905 - 109770 = 14135
No real dependable correlation between highest assigned VINs (on both ends of a quarter), and total number of deliveries in that same quarter.
So, I guess that you cannot use this data to predict the number of deliveries in a certain quarter. But we already knew that.
-----------------------------------------------------------
But what might be a point of some concern is the fact that the total number of the additional highest VINs from Q4 are less than the total number of the additional highest VINs from Q3 (14135 is less than 14174). And looking at prior quarters, we see that they increased from Q1 to Q2 (= +992), and then again from Q2 to Q3 (= +880), and then from Q3 to Q4 we see that it decreased with 39.
I am not predicting anything here. I am just presenting the data that we all can see in this thread. Please don't shoot the messanger. There are always multiple interpretations and clarifications for data. It's just what you are looking for.
Cheers�
Jan 6, 2016
doctoxics Didn't Tesla assign thousands of Model X VINs in Q4 that might explain the leveling off of Model S VINs?�
Jan 6, 2016
FlatSix911 Here are the US 2015 EV production numbers by manufacturer for comparison ...
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
View attachment 106792�
Jan 11, 2016
bonaire Mine is:
46200 MS
19501 MX
====
65701�
Jan 11, 2016
Crowded Mind Tesla was able to increase deliveries in 2015 by 19k. Why do you think they will only be able to increase deliveries in 2016 by 15k?�
Jan 11, 2016
bonaire Various reasons... Predictions are what they are. I didn't ask 30-40 people why they chose so high on the last two year's estimations... A few people estimated > 70,000 for 2015.
But primarily. 2014 had just about 1,500 DWD units sold. 2015 was FULL of the new P85D, 85D, 70D, 90D and other DWD replacements to the RWD segment. Now, we have DWD as the norm. Less trade-ups due to wanting the new DWD chassis now. Denmark will also be flat as will Norway. China was possibly a dumping ground for RWD leftover inventory. CPO volume is ramping with lease trade-ins during this year. Model X ramp is a bit unknown. Some will decide to wait for Model 3 one year later. It adds up. Tesla had a stellar year in 2015. But it was not all 100% full price custom orders only off the web. They will need to build even more inventory this year for speculation sales.�
Jan 12, 2016
Gerasimental 48350 Model S + 21780 Model X = 70130 Deliveries.�
Jan 17, 2016
Benz The poll shows that so far:
11 people have voted for 75,000 - 77,499
11 people have voted for 77,500 - 79,999�
Jan 17, 2016
Benz I think that they should guide for 70,000 - 80,000. Because chances of beating guidance will be slimmer/smaller if they would choose option B or option C.
And in August they then could narrow the range of their guidance to 5,000 inbetween the low end and high end of their guidance for 2016.�
Jan 17, 2016
FlatSix911 Here is a cool infographic on 2015 EV sales in the US ... I expect dramatic growth next year! http://howmuch.net/
�
Jan 18, 2016
bonaire A 10k wide guidance is not exactly good forecasting. They have known Model X orders to work down, they know the take rate and incentive deltas in various countries and know the # of sales per store in most areas. It should be possible to do a solid 5k wide guidance right now and be correct. My 2014 guess here on TMC was within 20 of the year's sales. My 2015 guess was short by about 2k due to the push into Denmark and extra selling into China that I didn't factor in along with 1400 supposed falling into January of 2015 from 2014.. If I can get this close for two years, from the outside, why can't Tesla do a true guidance to start the year? Both 2014 and 2015, they had to lower guidance during the years but waited until well late in the year to do it. It seems a higher guidance is meant to look better to the stock market and to make headline news which itself is a form of free advertising.
Beating guidance is an end of year thing and short-lived. But forecasting better guidance than will be hit is a year-long benefit. In a growth company, you should always be trying to look good to start the year to make sure that people interested in buying product are not scared away. I predict that guidance is: "we aspire to deliver 75,000-80,000 during 2016". It's possible to hit that but will take work and another good stock market year to pull it off. They already have stated "50% growth annually for years to come". So, at least guidance has to be close to that.�
Jan 18, 2016
RationalOptimist In Q1, S deliveries will be much greater than X, but I think this will equalize for rest of the year and may shade in favor of X. I'm also taking into account Elon's (probably ill-advised) comment to the BBC that this year wd prob see "approximately" double the sales of last year. I think they will guide 75-80k to make 'a win feel like a win', and hit at least 84k deliveries, for spectacular >60% growth over the year. I'm going with:
47,505 Model S deliveries (slightly cannibalized by X, but offset by continued geographic growth)
37,111 Model X deliveries (accelerating throughout the year. will outsell S in Q4)
84,616 total deliveries�
Jan 19, 2016
Benz The guidance for 2015 initially was 50,000 - 55,000. That's a range of 5,000 inbetween the lower end and the higher end of guidance. The range was 10% of the lower end of guidance.
And for 2016 the lower end of guidance will be at least 70,000. If the range remains 10% of the lower end of guidance, then the range will be 7,000 wide. Anyway, what I mean is that the range will be more than 5,000 wide.
The guidance for 2016 will be announced in February 2016. And then there will be 3 moments to narrow down the range of guidance in 2016: May, August and November.�
Jan 19, 2016
Crowded Mind Initial 2015 guidance was "about 55,000". This was later revised downward to "50,000 - 55,000".
�
Jan 22, 2016
Benz Tesla Model X deliveries in 2016: they will obviously increase every next quarter. But what numbers will they actually realise?
How about:
Q1 2016: 3,000
Q2 2016: 6,000
Q3 2016: 9,000
Q4 2016: 12,000�
Jan 22, 2016
palmer_md 68,200 total deliveries�
Feb 6, 2016
bonaire Bump - if anyone wants to participate this week going into the ER, post estimations in this thread.�
Feb 6, 2016
Chickenlittle 90,000�
Feb 6, 2016
mkjayakumar 65723 total�
Feb 6, 2016
uselesslogin So my prediction is that Tesla really wants to beat guidance this year so I will predict a 5% guidance beat since they might guide lower than they think they can do. Of course I have no idea what that is until we get their guidance Wednesday.�
Feb 6, 2016
SBenson 80,000 guidance announced in this ER.
No idea what the reality will turn out to be.�
Feb 6, 2016
yak-55 Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"
I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...�
Feb 6, 2016
PaulRocket I am saying 24k Model X and 53k Model S�
Feb 6, 2016
Lump I am waiting to see if that TMC cap shows up that Larken mentioned before making my 2016 prediction, I don't work for free you know :biggrin:.�
Feb 9, 2016
FakeStewartAlsop I'm thinking
It would have been 15,001 Model X, but, well, you know...
- Model X = 15,000
- Model S = 56,000
�
Feb 9, 2016
dalalsid S 50001
X 25001
Total 75002�
Feb 9, 2016
HiTech I think it would be disastrous if the MS figures went down from 2015 figures. They will need to at least maintain 50k to keep the markets from jumping into the headlines of "slowing demand" with actual proof (unlike the current headlines without proof). Therefore, they will probably increase MS production figures to about 55-60k for 2016.
As for MX, with 25k backlog, I'd think they'd try to ramp up fast enough to cover most of these as fast as quality allows. My guess is that they'll cover about 20-25k in 2016.
Total of about 80k.�
Feb 10, 2016
Benz Shareholder Letter Q4 2015:
"To achieve these goals we plan to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new ModelS and Model X vehicles in 2016, ..."
I already thought they would do that (a range of 10,000).�
Feb 10, 2016
uselesslogin OK, with guidance out I will say 86,500 deliveries this year.�
Feb 10, 2016
Chickenlittle Do I win?�
Feb 10, 2016
mrdoubleb Man, I certainly hope you do. If you win we all do.
Having said that, I will say 85,001.�
Feb 10, 2016
Benz Let's hope that they will not have to adjust their guidance below the 80,000 level (in May/August/November).
As 80,000 would mean an increase of almost 60% (compared to 2015). And that would be very good.
I think that the guidance of 80,000 - 90,000 is very ambitious. It's certainly not a conservative guidance.
All I can say right now is: "WOW".�
Feb 10, 2016
hershey101 I'm going to go with 2016 deliveries of 80,251�
Feb 11, 2016
farzyness I don't know about you guys, but I feel pretty damn good about my prediction�
Feb 11, 2016
SebastianR Alright, with the call out of the way - I will stand by my corrected estimate of:
83,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of
49,200 Model S
33,227 Model X
now let's see�
Feb 11, 2016
yak-55 Well, I do like my prediction that the guidance would be much rosier than my prediction ... :smile: Time will tell on the other bit.�
Feb 11, 2016
Crowded Mind So when do people need to post their final guesses by? The poll still closes in 2017.�
Feb 11, 2016
palmer_md One week after the earnings.�
Feb 11, 2016
esk8mw Loving my 1/4 prediction of 80,800. Bottom end of guidance, here we come!�
Feb 16, 2016
Benz Total annual global deliveries (Model S + Model X) in 2016: 84,200
Model S: 52,100
Model X: 32,100
The Q4 2015 Shareholder Letter was put online a week ago.
Actually, there are still a bit more than 14 hours remaining.
So, people can still post their guess/prediction during these remaining 14 hours.
Good luck to you all.�
Feb 16, 2016
Crowded Mind I'll go with 80,750.
52,000 S
28,750 X�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerardf I go for 83.500
55.000 Model-S
28.500 Model-X
(Plus 25 Model-3 Beta prototypes�
Feb 17, 2016
Gerasimental I believe this is the first time that the mean prediction in this poll is (well) below guidance. Let's hope these polls continue their trend of being a contrarian indicator of actual deliveries.�
Feb 17, 2016
Benz These predictions have been posted in this thread:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
farzyness:
-84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
-55,330 Model S
-28,743 Model X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Larken:
My vote is 78,777 delivered vehicles.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SebastianR:
93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of
51,200 Model S
42,227 Model X
Alright, with the call out of the way - I will stand by my corrected estimate of:
83,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of
49,200 Model S
33,227 Model X
now let's see :smile:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
StapleGun:
49,211 Model S
22,010 Model X
71,221 Total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
adiggs:
My prediction is 65,000 (30% growth off of the 50k 2015 number).
Call it the "wins should feel like wins" prediction.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grendal:
Model S: 42,000
Model X: 42,500
Model 3: 1 Prototype
Total: 84,501
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
esk8mw:
55,700 s
25,100 x
(=80,800)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
dc_h:
82501 total
46000 S
36501 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
AudubonB:
First guess for me: lucky 7s. 77,777
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Catteldog:
75,870
44,000 Model S
31,870 Model X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yggdrasill:
50,920 Model S
26,201 Model X
77,121 total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
RobStark:
I had that number weeks ago in the 2015 thread (Post 129). :smile:
Model S 50k
Model X 27,777
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
mrdoubleb:
So I'll reserve my vote until after the ER,
but right now my low end estimate would be 80k combined.
I will say 85,001.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
FlatSix911:
Extrapolation from this graph ...
50K Model S
40K Model X
90K Total for 2016
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newb:
70,980 = 49,900 Model S + 21,080 Model X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
yak-55:
66k = 44k "S" + 22k "X"
Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"
I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
pGo:
75000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryo:
47,000S
25,000X
72K total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
doctoxics:
You saw it here. 77,600 deliveries in 2016.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
bonaire:
Mine is:
46200 MS
19501 MX
====
65701
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gerasimental:
48350 Model S + 21780 Model X = 70130 Deliveries.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
RationalOptimist:
I'm going with:
47,505 Model S deliveries (slightly cannibalized by X, but offset by continued geographic growth)
37,111 Model X deliveries (accelerating throughout the year. will outsell S in Q4)
84,616 total deliveries
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
palmer_md:
68,200 total deliveries
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chickenlittle:
90,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
mkjayakumar:
65723 total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SBenson:
80,000 guidance announced in this ER.
No idea what the reality will turn out to be.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
PaulRocket:
I am saying 24k Model X and 53k Model S
(=77,000)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
FakeStewartAlsop:
I'm thinking
Model X = 15,000Model S = 56,000
(=71,000)
It would have been 15,001 Model X, but, well, you know...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
dalalsid:
S 50001
X 25001
Total 75002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
HiTech:
I think it would be disastrous if the MS figures went down from 2015 figures. They will need to at least maintain 50k to keep the markets from jumping into the headlines of "slowing demand" with actual proof (unlike the current headlines without proof). Therefore, they will probably increase MS production figures to about 55-60k for 2016.
As for MX, with 25k backlog, I'd think they'd try to ramp up fast enough to cover most of these as fast as quality allows. My guess is that they'll cover about 20-25k in 2016.
Total of about 80k.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
uselesslogin:
OK, with guidance out I will say 86,500 deliveries this year.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
hershey101:
I'm going to go with 2016 deliveries of 80,251
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benz:
Total annual global deliveries (Model S + Model X) in 2016: 84,200
Model S: 52,100
Model X: 32,100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crowded Mind:
I'll go with 80,750.
52,000 S
28,750 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gerardf:
I go for 83.500
55.000 Model-S
28.500 Model-X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------�
Feb 19, 2016
Benz In increasing order:
Less than 60,0000:
Nobody
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
60,000 - 70,000:
(5)
yak-55:
66k = 44k "S" + 22k "X"
Given the poor Model X ramp, I am cutting my estimate to:
62k = 44k "S" + 18k "X"
I suspect company guidance at the upcoming ER will be much rosier ...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
adiggs:
My prediction is 65,000 (30% growth off of the 50k 2015 number).
Call it the "wins should feel like wins" prediction.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
bonaire:
Mine is:
46200 MS
19501 MX
====
65701
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
mkjayakumar:
65723 total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
palmer_md:
68,200 total deliveries
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
70,000 - 80,000:
(14)
Gerasimental:
48350 Model S + 21780 Model X = 70130 Deliveries.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newb:
70,980 = 49,900 Model S + 21,080 Model X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
FakeStewartAlsop:
I'm thinking
Model X = 15,000Model S = 56,000
(=71,000)
It would have been 15,001 Model X, but, well, you know...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
StapleGun:
49,211 Model S
22,010 Model X
71,221 Total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryo:
47,000S
25,000X
72K total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
pGo:
75000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
dalalsid:
S 50001
X 25001
Total 75002
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Catteldog:
75,870
44,000 Model S
31,870 Model X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
PaulRocket:
I am saying 24k Model X and 53k Model S
(=77,000)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yggdrasill:
50,920 Model S
26,201 Model X
77,121 total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
doctoxics:
You saw it here. 77,600 deliveries in 2016.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
AudubonB:
First guess for me: lucky 7s. 77,777
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
RobStark:
I had that number weeks ago in the 2015 thread (Post 129). :smile:
Model S 50k
Model X 27,777
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Larken:
My vote is 78,777 delivered vehicles.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
80,000 - 90,000:
(16)
SBenson:
80,000 guidance announced in this ER.
No idea what the reality will turn out to be.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
HiTech:
I think it would be disastrous if the MS figures went down from 2015 figures. They will need to at least maintain 50k to keep the markets from jumping into the headlines of "slowing demand" with actual proof (unlike the current headlines without proof). Therefore, they will probably increase MS production figures to about 55-60k for 2016.
As for MX, with 25k backlog, I'd think they'd try to ramp up fast enough to cover most of these as fast as quality allows. My guess is that they'll cover about 20-25k in 2016.
Total of about 80k.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
hershey101:
I'm going to go with 2016 deliveries of 80,251
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crowded Mind:
I'll go with 80,750.
52,000 S
28,750 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
esk8mw:
55,700 s
25,100 x
(=80,800)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
dc_h:
82501 total
46000 S
36501 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SebastianR:
93,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of
51,200 Model S
42,227 Model X
Alright, with the call out of the way - I will stand by my corrected estimate of:
83,427 total cars and I believe that will be a total of
49,200 Model S
33,227 Model X
now let's see :smile:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gerardf:
I go for 83.500
55.000 Model-S
28.500 Model-X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
farzyness:
-84,073 Total Deliveries between S and X
-55,330 Model S
-28,743 Model X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benz:
Total annual global deliveries (Model S + Model X) in 2016: 84,200
Model S: 52,100
Model X: 32,100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grendal:
Model S: 42,000
Model X: 42,500
Model 3: 1 Prototype
Total: 84,501
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
RationalOptimist:
I'm going with:
47,505 Model S deliveries (slightly cannibalized by X, but offset by continued geographic growth)
37,111 Model X deliveries (accelerating throughout the year. will outsell S in Q4)
84,616 total deliveries
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
mrdoubleb:
So I'll reserve my vote until after the ER,
but right now my low end estimate would be 80k combined.
I will say 85,001.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
uselesslogin:
OK, with guidance out I will say 86,500 deliveries this year.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
FlatSix911:
Extrapolation from this graph ...
50K Model S
40K Model X
90K Total for 2016
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chickenlittle:
90,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
More than 90,000:
Nobody
-------------------------------------------------------------------------[/QUOTE]�
Feb 20, 2016
FlatSix911 Benz, good summary.
Perhaps you should lock this thread now and revisit on a quarterly basis until the winner is revealed in February 2017.�
Feb 21, 2016
mkjayakumar There is a uber bear author in Seeking Alpha who has challenged that he will eat a hat if Tesla ever produces more than 20k Xs on any year !!�
Feb 21, 2016
dc_h I'm pretty sure he'll be backing out of this commitment in October or November 2016. Hopefully someone at Tesla will send him a nice hat for Christmas.
�
Feb 22, 2016
mkjayakumar Although I won't be too surprised if Tesla comes short of 20k this year given that they have hardly made 1000 so far, they should easily surpass that 'hat-eating' target next year.�
Feb 22, 2016
FlatSix911 Here is the guidance that Tesla provided at the recent shareholder meeting.
They forecast 16,000 vehicles in 1Q and 80,000 to 90,000 in total for 2016.
�
Aug 10, 2016
bonaire Bump for any mid-year discussion.�
Aug 12, 2016
FlatSix911 Tesla has now produced over 33k vehicles in 1H16 and is on track to produce +50K in 2H16 for a total of 83K - 85K
�
Aug 12, 2016
schonelucht Interesting that the most picked answer is below guidance. Overall I think the average prediction will come closer to reality than last year's round.�
Aug 12, 2016
Crowded Mind I think the poll was open before guidance was given.�
Aug 13, 2016
FlatSix911 I looks like Tesla will beat the owners estimate of 77K- 80K
�
Aug 13, 2016
RobStark I am liking my chances of 77,777 and another "the dog ate my homework" excuse.
But that is still excellent YoY growth.
Elon stated 100k-200k Model 3s in 2017 plus S and X.
I would be stoked at 150k units total in 2017.�
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét