Thứ Ba, 31 tháng 1, 2017

Canceling order due to autopilot death news? part 1

  • Jun 30, 2016
    buckerine
    Today is the last day of my seven day period to cancel my order. I have to admit the news about the autopilot death spooks me a little. Not because I don't know about AP's limitations. I've driven the car extensively and understand that AP as a technology is still in its early stages.

    What I'm more concerned about is what effect this will have on demand for Teslas in general. Tesla the company is riding on a lot of debt. Any significant shift in demand can cause trouble real fast. Not sure I want to plunk down 100k on a car if the company making it may be in trouble soon.

    I realize I may be over-sensationalizing things, but it's still worth thinking about. Thoughts?
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    Patrick W
    Personally, I'm more concerned about the airbag debacle.
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    James Anders
    Don't buy Autopilot. You can always upgrade.
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    azred
    Only an extremely wealthy individual should be plunking down $100k on any new car. If that is you, why worry? If it's not you, why would you spend so much on any extremely expensive car knowing it will lose half of its value before the warranty even expires?
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    Xenius
    As a nowhere near close to an extremely wealthy individual, I can say I'm buying the car because I think it's a marvelous piece of technology and I want to be part of it. I adore (for the most part) the company and appreciate it's mission. I also intend to convert a few friends to Teslamaniacs. That, and I've run the numbers more times than is probably healthy, and can make it work.
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    buckerine
    Sorry, but gotta call out dumb comments when I see them. One's wealth does not in any way preclude one from being wise with money. In fact, being wise with money is what makes many people wealthy to begin with.

    Second, almost all cars today lose half their value or more within 4 years, so I'm not sure where you're going with that.

    The fact that I've already decided to allocate 100k to this particular car speaks to my general excitement about the company and the technology (and, of course my confidence with respect to my finances post-purchase). But that doesn't mean I shouldn't question the wisdom of a purchase of this magnitude if maybe the company behind the product may see trouble down the road. I'm not saying Tesla will fail and I'm sure as hell not a short seller. I want the best for the company as I think they've created an amazing product. But, frankly, I care more about my money than the company and I want to see my money spent on something that has a rosy future. If not for today's news, I would've had no issues with my order whatsoever.
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    xav-
    OP, I think what matters is whether you want the autopilot and how confident you feel about it. Personally I am waiting for an AP refresh or the 3 before buying.

    The fears that you have that it may bring financial trouble to tesla are way, way overblown, at this very early stage.
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    ZeroDarkSilver
    Not so long ago, it seemed like Teslas were self-immolating every other week. The hype and fear around spontaneous battery fires seemed pretty dire at the time, and yet Tesla survived and thrived.

    This is a terrible tragedy, and it's a sober reminder to all of us to stay alert at all times, but things will move on. Tesla is pushing the entire industry in the right direction. If you really believe an accident like this is going to slow or stop progress, then you're betting against the whole evolution of the automobile industry to electric and autonomy, not just Tesla.

    Tesla has been through many narrow passes at this point, and has seen much darker days than this. The fact that it has continued to gain followers and customers over the years, I think, means it's on the right track as far as where the future of transport is going. You just have to believe in that. Or not.

    Is it riskier than just buying a Honda? Maybe. But then again Honda just told 300,000 of its customers to stop driving their cars immediately because their airbags have a 50/50 chance of spraying hot shrapnel into their faces in a collision (Stop driving these Hondas right now, says regulator).
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    Dutchie
    Even for the extremely wealthy it is totally retarded for buying such an expensive car which only brings you from A to B. A Mazda 3 of Toyota Corolla can do the same task just as well.

    So, that is totally rational but you know what... I have a brother who walked past the edge as he is now in remission from Leukaemia. My father just purchased his last car. His whole life he wanted to have a Jaguar or even a Bentley and he bought now an Opel Adam..:( So he has had a life wanting to have a busines beautiful car but his rational prevented him from doing so. I find that sad. My brother thought he had quite a while to go just to experience that life is very vulnerable. I am usually quite rational but now I am now thinking: "Screw rational..!" I have been wanting a Tesla for about six years. Reading about it every day. Following this blog, watching YouTube videos and drooling at the Tesla stores. If you somehow can make it happen, just do it! So I am just two months away from talking to the bank in order to get some equity out of my home and order a Model X.
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    ggnykk
    Tesla won't have financial trouble because of this. In the history of Tesla, it went through challenges many times worse than this and still survive. Also, Elon Musk would have no problem raising money if he really needs it. He is larger than life and viewed as greater than god in silicon valley.
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  • Jun 30, 2016
    wdolson
    The number of people killed in Teslas is still very low. The driver was doing something the manufacturer told them not to do (he was distracted by a movie apparently). People in ICEs do stupid things all the time and get killed.

    Because it's Tesla there will probably be a media storm for a week or two, but it will blow over like all the controversies before. Remember the claims that Teslas were fire hazards a couple of years ago? That blew over.

    The term here and other places for it is FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    whitex
    Why would you (or anyone) cancel the order, unless you are buying the car purely for AutoPilot (in which case read on)? Tesla is a great car, with or without AutoPilot. Just don't get AP, unless you want it as a technical curiosity. You actually have to be more vigilant when driving on AP because it works so well most of the time, therefore it fools you into false sense of security, but when it fails it can cause a lot of harm. Those who relax and are less vigilant than driving manually risk getting into accidents. It's like driving with a student driver who has somewhat impaired vision, blind spots, and experiences occasional seizures - most of the time in good conditions it will be just fine, but when the student makes a mistake you have to be ready to take over at any time. So bottom line, takes more effort to safely drive with AP than without it. From my personal experience, the only time AP comes useful is in stop and go highway traffic, slow moving, no lane changes - there your risk is low, maybe a fender bender. And I say "your risk" because as you may or may not have gathered so far, AutoPilot comes with all the legal disclaimers and warnings that tell you that you as a driver have full override capabilities and therefore are completely responsible no matter what the AutoPilot does.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Dealanach
    There is no guarantee that any other car company isn't currently covering up a defect, purchasing shoddy wheels, etc. generally speaking, the car auxiliaries are built with parts from the lowest bidder.

    At any time some catastrophe could ruin the world economy for years, rendering expensive automobiles a major liability. Don't overthink it. We're all going to die sometime. Relatively soon, in fact. Get Model S and get the grin, I say.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    buckerine
    Absolutely right. I'm convinced that AP poses more risks not because of its technical limitations but because drivers tend to feel secure enough over time that they're not sufficiently alert in emergency situations which AP can't handle.

    If the recent schematics of new AP hardware are real, I'm hoping Tesla does indeed install that hardware sooner rather than later, and provides all Model S owners with the opportunity to upgrade.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Jlwine
    Ditto!
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    LargeHamCollider
    As Tesla noted, there is a traffic fatality on average every 94 million miles driven, Tesla's have driven over 130 million miles on autopilot with one fatality. This alone should show that autopilot is not unusually hazardous... that said, EYES ON THE ROAD. It's not an autonomous car (yet).
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Jlwine
    From what we know so far, the headline could have just as accurately been, "Fatal Crash While Driver Wearing Seatbelt"
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    ecarfan
    (You likely know all this, but just to clarify...) In late 2013 there were TWO instances where a Tesla hit a small object on a road surface at speed and the battery compartment was penetrated and several minutes later a section of the battery overheated and started to burn (not "explode", just burn).

    These two instances got an inordinate amount of attention and there were widespread predictions that Tesla was doomed. Tesla responded appropriately, offered retrofitted battery protections and started incorporating those protections in all new cars. Since that time I am not aware of any more cases of battery damage and fires after hitting small objects on the road (there have been a few cases of Tesla crashes at high speed into buildings because...the driver was an idiot...and resulting battery fires).

    Tesla survived those two incidents and continued to prosper. I believe that Tesla will survive this latest incident in Florida where the driver was using AP (including TACC) but not paying attention to his surroundings since he did not use the brake before impact. The AEB did not activate either, for a variety of reasons. A very sad story.

    I think it unlikely that the NHTSA will find fault with Tesla and the AP in this situation.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Filter
    To get back to the OP, I think that buying a Tesla always had an element of risk that was different from buying into a well established brand. That said, it also has a reward (tremendous in my biased opinion) that comes with it - the ability to be part of something materially different from the rest of the industry. I love driving my Tesla, I use autopilot daily, and am careful about its utilization.
    I previously owned a few European luxury brands, and although the cars were wonderful, I love my Tesla more.
    I hope you stay with the brand, this is a tragic event but it shouldn't change your initial decision (again, in my biased opinion).

    Best of luck, no matter what you choose.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    buckerine
    Thanks. I too love the car otherwise and have decided to go through with my order. One thing that's reassuring is the number of rabid Tesla fans who believe in the company and its mission, and who also understand that to be an innovator by definition requires traveling down rocky roads that others may not have the ability or willingness to travel.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    scottm
    This thread would have benefitted from a vote button.

    I am aware of the now famous AP crash in FL.

    I have a reservation for a 3 and own an S.

    I've not taken any action toward cancelling my reservation, the thought didn't even cross my mind - until I saw this thread. But it doesn't change my mind toward wanting the 3 so I'm staying in line.

    When it comes time to order the 3, if AP is a pay-for option, I won't pay for it. But not because of the recent accident. I just don't think it's a good feature for where I live. Our roads are pretty cruddy and snows too much.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    SomeJoe7777
    I think your concern over the viability of Tesla as a company, and the associated resale value of the car is somewhat warranted, but that really doesn't have anything to do with the accident that made headlines yesterday. And yes, I don't say it was an "autopilot accident" because it appears to me that autopilot had little to do with it. Really, this accident was distracted driving, which happens every day in every car brand.

    That said, a Tesla is somewhat more risky of a vehicle than an established brand because the company is still small in comparison to other car companies, it is aggressive in both expansion goals as well as technology implementation, and faces many challenges and roadblocks to get significant market penetration.

    If this risk concerns you, consider leasing the vehicle instead of buying. In the end, it is no more expensive because a purchased vehicle depreciates so fast, and at the end of 3 years you can walk away from it and never see it again if that's what you want to do. No resale hassles, always covered by warranty, no worries about diminished value in case of an accident, and in 3 years when the technology in the car is dated, you can get a new Tesla or something else entirely.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    David29
    First, I'd agree that Tesla is and always has been more of a risk to buy (or to invest in) than most automobiles, in an economic sense. Elon Musk himself says that he did not expect the company to succeed. And it could still fail at some point for any number of reasons including many that we have not yet thought of. So any buyer needs to go into a purchase with open eyes on that score.
    But that does not mean Tesla Model S is not a very safe car in comparison to the population of cars on the road today. Not perfect, but very good.
    As for the Autopilot specifically, the first fatality was inevitably going to come sometime. And there will likely be more. Cars have collisions and sometimes people die, unfortunately, despite the best safety equipment deployed so far. But that alone should not be a determinant for a buying (or investing) choice. I dare say there is no brand/model of car on the road that has any substantial number of owners that has not had fatal accidents.

    I am glad the OP made the decision to confirm his order.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    jelloslug
    Considering that TSLA is up right now even after the news I would say that it's not much to worry about.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    buckerine
    Ha, good point. Which in a way is some vote of confidence for the company. And it makes sense if you think about it. After all, AP is just one optional feature of a car that, overall, is one of the safest in the world.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Maximus8
    I have only owned my MS for 3 months and I still get many questions about the Tesla by curious non-owners. I'm always happy to respond with my experiences and my overall joy of owning something as technologically advanced as a Tesla. What tends to bother me are those non-owners who believe they know more about the MS than me because they read something "on the internet." Many of these individuals are quick to knock down Tesla and are first to say the company will go belly up. This is not the Yugo of the 80's! Teslas were made to change the way we view a traditional mode of transportation. IMO, it's hard to understand this shift in thinking without owning a Tesla. Whether or not Tesla survives will be up to the market; what I know will survive is vehicle travel that is not an ICE.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Cwsnhri
    AP is in BETA. Use it at your own risk! No one buys A Tesla for AP as it is a very small part of this revolution provided by Tesla.
    Yes, revolution. My X is perfect and getting better as I learn all it is.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    mkjayakumar
    AP is the primary reason why I bought my S, and I am absolutely loving it. It has radically improved the quality of my life by reducing stress enormously in my daily 80 mile commute.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Max*
    I love definitive statements that are wrong.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    MSullivan
    Good God how many people have died in ICE autos since this death? Don't let the idiots writing headlines change your mind. I have owned my S three weeks and only gotten to use AP for one extended trip. If you stay alert and use it the way it is supposed to be used it is wonderful and takes the stress out of stop and go traffic.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Stoneymonster
    In the US, probably close to 5000.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    xav-
    What difference does leasing make? Think loss of resale value is not baked in the lease price?

    I did the math on my own but basically a $72k model s cost around $1k a month over the next 3 years regardless of leasing or buying. From a financial perspective it would make a lot of sense to wait for the 3 unfortunately.

    I expect the 3 to have an amazing resale value.. Especially for those who will get the tax rebate. Likely cost of ownership will be something like a tiny fraction of that $1k a month. A base model 3 will likely be free on year 1 and even potentially free on year 2 (all depends on tax rebate).

    By free I mean the car is sold for the purchasing price after 1 year. Assume not fully loaded, and tax credit.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Skotty
    I would recommend being careful not to contribute to the hysteria of which you fear will doom Tesla. The title and subject of this thread is borderline heading down that road. If you can afford the car and believe in the mission then don't be afraid to stand behind them with your support. It's okay to risk losing when it's for a worthy cause. That's why I bought mine. I don't care if there are risks. They are trying to do the right thing for both individuals and society as a whole, and as long as that is true, I will stand behind them.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    STbreaker
    I've always found the sensationalism of events to be fascinating. The rate at which it happens in this age of social media is astounding. When I said I was thinking about a Tesla my uncle asked "don't those explode or something?" This off a couple incidents with no fanfare aside from the driver needing to pull off the road. Now someone dies (perhaps while distracted, we don't know yet) and all of a sudden this car, which is wonderful by all accounts is a death trap and we're cancelling orders/calling bankruptcy for the company?

    First of all, I think it's kind of silly to worry about the resale value and/or stock price of your Tesla if you're really buying. I'll admit I was skeptical at first, but if I still felt it was tenuous, or even contingent on bad (and possibly inaccurate) press here and there, I wouldn't get involved.

    Also, we're basically talking about the best selling full size luxury sedan in the US and 4 years in we're still at single digit deaths. AP is not required to use (or even to buy). If you choose to hold on using AP until you get more details on the investigation, I respect that decision fully. Hopefully we can all step back and look at the facts and come to a reasonable conclusion. But until the alarmists calm down, I'm not going to let the Tesla haters get to me. I know that I'm in probably the safest car in the world and it happens to be pretty cool/futuristic/gorgeous on top of that.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    int32_t
    Autopilot isn't so buggy and so early that it didn't do what it's supposed to and known to be capable of doing. Radar can't see objects above the nose of the car, and the camera's purpose is not to avoid obstacles since it can't tell how far away they are. Autopilot can help you pay proper attention by reducing the workload of all the various things you need to keep track of. It does not replace the driver.

    Autopilot is a cool suite of features, and more eyes on the road (not your phone, even with Autopilot) are always a very good thing.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    SomeJoe7777
    Of course the depreciation is baked into the lease payments. The difference is that the depreciation value is fixed and specified up front. That reduces the risk over the lifetime of the lease.

    If you're worried about the viability of the company and believe that the car will be worth a very low amount of money in the future, leasing removes that risk.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    CapeOne
    Yes but is that really a fair comparison? Since cars have gotten safer and safer over the years, shouldn't the autopilot 'fatality rate' comparison be against other cars of similar age (e.g. less than two years old) rather than ALL vehicles which include older cars that may not have the benefit of today�s safety devices/features, design improvements, etc.

    The fatality rate per miles on AP may actually be the same or worse than the overall fatality rate for cars 2014 and newer. I'm not saying it is but we just don't know (do we?) and therefore I don't think anything meaningful can be taken from the 94 versus 130 million miles comparison.


    Exactly!!
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    CapeOne
    The issue is not about how many deaths but the rate. Of course, there are far more ICE traffic fatalities but that's because there are far more ICE vehicles being driven.

    I think if used properly AP can be a wonderful thing BUT some will unfortunately 'abuse' it by doing things like not keeping eyes on the road.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    jerry33
    Good for you. However, I've had my Model S for over three years and 70K miles now, and I can't say that the road has been rocky. It's been as trouble free as any car I've had and far more trouble free than some.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    TaoJones
    When cruise control was brand new back in the day, I wonder if the same level of media hysteria accompanied the first fatal accident...

    It is a reasonable conclusion that TACC has prevented more accidents than it has caused.

    It is reasonable to note that perpendicular crossings on divided state routes are, have been, and will forever be inherently dangerous.

    I am of the belief that vigilant drivers who understand the limitations of the Driver Assist (I refuse to refer to these features as "AutoPilot" regardless of what the marketing team has decided) features should in fact engage those features at every opportunity.

    Why? Because the fleet learns from itself. Because vigilant drivers can disengage those DA (AP) features at any time. To not engage just prolongs the process of improvement.

    Note the term "vigilant driver". I know plenty of Tesla owners who are either control freaks or scared but in any case they don't even use cruise control. Hey, more power to them. But for my part, I find TACC to be much better now, and AutoSteer will improve over time as well. With DA/AP2.0, all the better.

    Of course Tesla will advise "on ramp to off ramp". What you choose to do is your own business. Just do the rest of us a favor and be vigilant while so doing. And do use the "Send Feedback" and "Bug Report" voice commands to report unexpected behavior. Every little bit helps as in the end, here in mid-2016, we are all beta testers.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    WileyTheMan
    Sounds like the OP's main concern is the company's stability when facing dire issues. Tesla has already beat the odds by simply staying in existence up to now, even as they are still running in the red. That tells me two crucial things: 1) People are convinced that the company has a future and are willing to help keep it afloat; and 2) They have a solid business plan and product.

    What the future holds for the company, who knows. It can change on a dime, just like any other company in a capitalistic society. But so far they are doing things right, and I am still excited about taking delivery of the Model 3 (whenever that will be).
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    JNelson1326
    In Complete Agreement with Most of the Posts. Distracted Driving - from any of a number of "distractions" - is still Dangerous Driving. "Autopilot" with Steering Control is Quite Fascinating, and really what I would consider to be really Incredibly Advanced Cruise Control, That being said, what has been termed "autopilot" is NOT REALLY "AutoPilot", where you would input your destination and the car would get you to that point, safely and with precision. However, until that time, we Really Need to "Stay Engaged" in the Driving Experience and Recognize the Limitations of the Cruise Control Features. I have had my Model X for two weeks now, so I am a relative "Newby" to using this feature. The times that I have tried using the Steering Control Features have been on the Highway when the traffic around me is relatively light. Currently reminds me of when I was teaching my daughter to drive when she had a learners permit. Always wanted to reach over and put my hands on the wheel and keep my foot on the brake. She has turned out to be a very good driver- no accidents in two years of "autonomous driving", even though she goes "faster" than I might prefer. I assume that I will get to be more comfortable with the TACC over the coming year, but with over 40 years of driving experience prior to purchasing my Model X, I am quite certain that I will remain an "engaged" and attentive driver despite getting more comfortable with the "autopilot" like features available in the TESLA Vehicles. Perhaps, as more EV, and even Hybrid with Substantial EV Capabilities, come into the Market, they might develop capabilities to recognize other nearby vehicles that are outfitted with advanced driving features and set up "feedback" mechanisms to ascertain driving speed, road conditions and such. Over time- Decades most likely - that might help improve traffic coordination and possibly lead to fewer vehicle to vehicle accidents. One question that comes to mind is as follows: does the TESLA Navigation System recognize when it is approaching Railroad Crossings? From what I understand regarding the accident leading to the Fatality, it sounded like the truck made a left turn across the highway at a 4 way intersection in front of the TESLA. Not many highways have 4 way intersections in them, but I have encountered 4 way intersections, including Stop Lights, on some roads, especially in rural areas and in the mid west. Perhaps the Navigation System needs to coordinate with the Cruise Control and Steering Controls to recognize when Highways have these features and alert the driver or slow down the vehicle. Thanks.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    whitex
    No, no... Please don't confuse the two. See how AutoPilot has already lured you into false sense of confidence? Your daughter has way better sensors, way better "Intelligence" processing (vs. computer AI), ability to learn and desire for self preservation. Current AP hardware does not, therefore it will NEVER get anywhere near a human capabilities. Future hardware with better sensors, maybe, but not my or your current car. To give you one example, AutoPilot does not see or react to most traffic that is already stopped - issue discussed in many other threads and also mentioned in the owner's manual, so I won't rehash the details, but bottom line is it's due to the sensor (in this case radar and camera) limitations which cannot be overcome with current hardware. I'm betting your daughter, even on her first day of driving, would at least attempt to stop the car if she came up on a stopped car. Your AutoPilot will not.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    DCGOO
    I think "autopilot" is a perfect name for the feature. It (obviously) comes from the aviation biz, where it performs exactly the same function. Maintaining heading, altitude and speed control only (our cars leave altitude to the road surface). That is all it does in an airplane, and all it does in our cars.

    When you drive [fly] into congested areas [airspace] you have to take a more active roll in maintaining situational awareness. Active Navigation assistance up to including full automany is an entirely different animal. But that is way more than basic AutoPilot. AFAIK, no aircraft can park itself in the hanger. :)

    IMO, the name of the feature fits perfectly.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    whitex
    So what you're saying is that just like in aviation biz, Auto Pilot should only be engaged when there is nothing to crash into within some radius, e.g. 1 mile (I doubt the Autopilot is recommended to fly in tight formations with people of varying skill, experience and alertness, such as when you're on a highway with other people). So for a car, it's only good on an empty dry lake bed? ;)
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    msnow
    I agree with this however two airplanes flying at 500 MPH in opposite directions a couple of thousand feet apart sounds like tight tolerances too.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    78Lion
    I use autopilot all the time and am still not comfortable with it. I tend to think I am more attentive with it on than off. I'm very comfortable with it off as I have 40+ years of driving a non-autopilot car and know what it could do.

    If you keep reminding yourself this is BETA software and don't pick up a book or video, you'll be fine.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    slevit1md
    I would not let one accident affect your decision to purchase a Tesla. As has already been mentioned, autopilot has driven far more miles without an accident than humans do, on average. Further, they clearly state that auto pilot is in beta and driver should be in control of the vehicle at all times. Autopilot has no doubt avoided several accidents, and in this case, it was the drivers fault, not the vehicle's, that there was an accident. When auto pilot takes control of the vehicle from the driver and crashes into a wall, I will get concerned.

    As it stands, autopilot is not perfect, but I feel it does a great job and it is always improving. I frequently drive two hours from Toledo to Cleveland and always use autopilot for the entire portion of the drive on the turnpike (which is almost the entire drive). There have probably only been one or two times in the last several months that I had to take over because the autopilot seemed to be about to do something stupid. Fortunately, while I do not typically keep my hands on wheel, I do always pay attention and was ready to take over. I wouldn't say a two hour drive Is ever enjoyable, at least not for me, but autopilot make the drive significantly more tolerable.

    I have only ever been in one minor accident in my Tesla, where I knocked the side view mirror off the car when I fell asleep driving home after a night shift and hit a traffic barrel. I actually didn't turn autopilot on for this drive because I was afraid I may fall asleep if I did. As it turns out, I probably would've avoided the accident if I had used autopilot!
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Doug_G
    Seems to me that this accident was caused by the truck driver, not the autopilot.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    CapeOne
    Perhaps but isn't one of the purposes of AP, and systems like it, to help drivers avoid accidents regardless of who may be at 'fault'? It's not perfect but the question is should it have done better here? Hopefully Tesla will learn things from the investigation to help make the system better.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    tyanger
  • Jul 1, 2016
    sandpiper
    Not at all. The AP system has drive 130M miles before a fatality and the human being has a worse track record. That AP, an admitted beta, first out of the gate can perform as well as a human being is astounding. It was inevitable that this would eventually happen, just by the law of large numbers. People have been killed in cars of every brand, model, style, type. And people have been killed walking, sleeping, eating dinner, sitting on the john and having physical relations. If you're going to cancel the car over this, you should consider hiding in your room. Of course, then you're likely to die from some other malady associated with insufficient exercise.

    The AP system is amazing so far, and will only keep improving. I'm happy to keep contributing to the development of such an amazing and safety enhancing technology.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Doug_G
    You can't expect any such system to be 100% flawless. Humans sure aren't.

    I'd bet the accident statistics for autopilot are better than for human drivers (Tesla's blog post quoted some numbers that support that argument).

    Also in this case, I would not be surprised if the accident happened exactly the same way with autopilot off. It just wouldn't be news.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    SFOTurtle
    Agree, and also don't text or use your laptop! Duh, right? My wife has a client that was doing the latter on his commute on the highway every day until one afternoon the car was passing by some road construction and swerved off the road and hit a road sign. He is fine, but because he was working on his laptop instead of both paying attention and having his hands on the wheel, he was in no position to prevent the accident. He has learned his lesson. This was even before the news of the FL accident broke.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    ETravel
    Portable DVD Player reported player Harry Potter movie. Do not watch movies while driving. Tesla does not have functionality to watch movies on center display. Appears driver over road safety features built in. No watching movies while driving. If this is the case nothing to do with AP.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    Merrill
    You have to decide what your vision for the future is and then just do it. You will see all kinds of negativity about everything in life, I'm not wealthy and love what Tesla is all about. Companies with vision will go thru ups and downs and there are certain factions that want those companies to fail. My belief is if you can do a small part to promote what will be good for all and have fun doing it what more could you ask for. With new technology there will always be learning curves, but if companies like Tesla can survive it changes business as usual. If no one takes a chance, nothing changes.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    CliffG
  • Jul 1, 2016
    EVie'sDad
    what, no. Topic has no bearing on my next purchase of a model 3 for the mrs. I've had my model S as long as the driver killed in the incident (almost 9 months), and no, this may have occurred while on autopilot, but as the disclaimer says, the driver is entirely responsible for the operation and control of their vehicle. Autopilot did not kill the driver, the driver's inattention or poor reaction time instigated the results that ended in his death.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    whitex
    Absolutely correct. The point is that AutoPilot enables people to pay less attention because of human nature, while actually they should be paying more attention while AP is engaged because not only does the driver have to react when AP doesn't, there is the additional burden of having to react to bad AP actions which normally would not occur when driving manually (for example AP suddenly steers the car and into oncoming traffic because of road scuff marks it perceived as lane markings).
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    eye.surgeon
    I was going to buy a BMW but then one crashed so I decided not to.
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  • Jul 1, 2016
    GoTslaGo
    That wasn't a witness, that was the perpetrator, the truck driver at fault for this whole thing. Of course he's going to say that.

    IMHO, this is a legal stunt to deflect blame from the truck driver. Let's blame technology and not my irresponsible driving. Let's blame the dead guy, he can't defend himself.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    xav-
    Even tesla acknowledged that the driver did not slow down.. Putting all the blame on the truck driver is non sense.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    greentee
    Keep in mind that without autopilot, the Model S was still the best overall car in 2014 and 2015.

    With the crash details trickling in, I probably won't worry too much about Tesla. It's a new technology and they definitely need to improve it over time. But I doubt that it'd bring the company down.

    For other car companies, closed-course tests won't get them too far and they'll have to go through this public beta stage as well.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    whitex
    Agreed that without AP Tesla are still best cars you can buy. That said, I've been saying for a while that they are pushing the bleeding edge pretty hard risking a fatal accident with a lot of shock value (say kids involved) which it turn can lead to a legal backlash setting autonomous driving back for years. You can never underestimate the general public overreaction capabilities.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    Jbailey
    Autopilot did not prevent an accident that it was not supposed to prevent. A driver was doing things he was not supposed to do.

    Its really no more newsworthy than the several other fatalities that happen in Levy County every month I hear about. It's a good lesson to the rest of us that there are autopiiot limitations. If we know it won't stop in a garage with bicycles hanging down, then we know it wont stop if there is a significant gap under a truck. It probably recognized it as a tunnel and it won't stop in tunnels.

    It also seems he was going between 85 and 90mph. Even If there is a solid stationary barrier in front of you the tech does recognize, the car cannot stop in time at that speed. It may slow down but the impact would still be significant.

    Its all statistics...very low likelihood a big white truck with a gap under it would cross in front of you while you are going 89 mph distracted by a computer or something...probably 1 in a million+ miles driven but not zero.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    Lex
    "Tragic" and "panic" probably sound too similar...

    A series of Autopilot-driven cars did not initiate flipover maneuvers at high speed. Not even one did.

    What seems to have happened here is that a driver drove his car under the broadside of a trailer and died tragically. The car had an Autopilot system which was active at the time, as well as passive emergency braking, but the technology apparently ignored the hazard (as a possible overhead sign).

    Tragic, yes. Panic, no.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    CapeOne
    I agree. As I stated previously, it isn't perfect but the problem is that some may think it�s better than it is and �abuse� the system by doing things like not keeping their eyes of the road.


    I don't think Tesla�s 94 million miles versus 130 million miles comparison is really apples to apples or necessarily tells us anything. Since cars have gotten safer and safer over the years, the autopilot 'fatality rate' should be compared against other cars of similar age (less than two years old) rather than ALL vehicles which include older cars that may not have the benefit of today's safety devices/features, design improvements, etc.

    The fatality rate per miles on AP may actually be the same or worse than the overall fatality rate for cars 2014 and newer. I'm not saying it is but we just don't know (do we?). It's certainly closer than 94 million versus 130 million.


    Without AP on, the driver may have been paying attention more and perhaps been able to avoid the accident or severity of the accident on his own. We may never know for sure but more details will come out in the investigation.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    Zroiron
    It appears to me that you're just looking for a reason....any reason, to cancel. Go ahead won't hurt my feelings!
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    msnow
    See post #20 where the OP states he has decided to buy the car.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    AMPd
    Cancelling because someone died while using the vehicle in an unsafe manner is downright silly, obviously the decision is wholly yours.
    Autopilot is not responsible here, dont mean to beat the dead horse but the driver MUST pay attention while using autopilot!
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    rogbmw
    Living close to where the accident was here in Florida, our thoughts go out to the Tesla driver and family. To put it simply, the Tesla was driving down the road, and the Semi turned left right in front of him. I don't know if driving without the autopilot engaged could have changed the results - very probably not.

    The driver of the Semi has no knowledge if the Tesla driver was watching Harry Potter or not. All that was initially said was that the first person to get to the Tesla found a DVD player on. Who knows - maybe the force of the accident caused it to come on. Regardless - if a semi turns left illegally infront of a car, it can be catastrophic.

    Again, our thoughts and prayers go out to the family.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    cpa
    Everyone--yes everyone--has been injured or hurt by using items in the ways that they were not designed or intended to be used. It is no different for AutoPilot. The driver's death was tragic and unfortunate. But if the reports are correct, his rate of speed combined with watching a movie was reckless behavior.

    Personally I am too chicken to use a feature like this. I get that others love it and want to use it. With the success rate of AutoPilot mentioned above, there should be no qualms about buying a Tesla with AutoPilot. Just follow directions and be sensible.

    (Tesla may have to disable certain features like the USB port playing a movie when AutoPilot is activated for safety reasons.)
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    Stoneymonster
    There is no such feature.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    Clomer
    It seems that a lot of people in this thread have missed the point that the OP isn't questioning the car or autopilot itself - he is questioning whether Tesla as a company will be able to survive the negative public reaction that the incident in question is generating. The former is a technical thing, and it's well within Tesla's ability to navigate. The latter - the bad press - is a human thing, and is much more difficult to predict.

    This is a genuine concern. If Tesla as a company folds, the value of the cars will plummet overnight. Tesla will probably be fine. It's not the first time they have encountered bumps in their road (a couple years ago, if all you went by was the sensationalist media coverage, you'd think every Model S was a moving fire trap, ready to spontaneously combust at any moment). That said, their ultimate success is not guaranteed.

    I say go ahead and buy the car.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    EV-lutioin

    So what I am wondering is why a tractor trailer pulled in front of cars going 65 MPH down a highway? I sure hope they take a blood test from that guy....

    The other thing I am wondering is.... was their enough time for the Tesla driver to react to the truck pulling in front of him? Was it physically possible for him to stop in time?

    The last thing I am wondering is why we allow trailers to be designed such that cars can drive underneath them. Many trucks already have under-ride guards in the back, why not require them on the sides? (see photos). When a car goes underneath a truck all the safety features built into the car are pretty much useless. This looks like a problem with a fairly simple solution.

    Truck-side-guards.jpg underride-protection-300x225.jpg
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    Chopr147
    I don't know of any vehicle including Tesla that allow the front screen to play a movie while vehicle is in motion. That was the truck drivers statement so it's not very credible. It's a shame, especially due to the driver being a former Navy Seal. Say a prayer. The AP does give one a false sense of security and it's a reminder to the rest of us to pay attention!
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    GoTslaGo
    But then we couldn't do those cool Hollywood moves with the sports car evading the pursuing police by dashing under the tractor trailer....

    Like we can all do that....
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    rays427
    It's interesting that several comments including from the truck driver have the Tesla speeding. Since he was using autopilot it won't let you go more than 5 mph over the speed limit which I wouldn't call speeding.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    S4WRXTTCS
    Autopilot will allow you to go up to 90mph as long as you're not on a road where autopilot is restricted to 5 over.

    The road that the driver was on what not a road where autopilot is restricted. So the driver could have set the Autopilot to 90 theoretically. The Tesla logs should show how fast he was going when the accident occurred.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    S4WRXTTCS
    In terms of bad news for Tesla I'd say the worst news was all the Model X issues, and secondly it was the tentative offer to buy Solar City.

    But, that's part of the adventure of having a Tesla. Of when they do things that make you go "WTF????"

    Strap yourself in because it's going to be an interesting ride. The choice to buy a Tesla isn't like buying any normal boring car. I had a lot of nervousness when getting the Tesla so its understandable. It does get a incredible amount of media hype that is hardly ever fair/accurate.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    No2DinosaurFuel
    I think the OP needs to change the title. There are way too many people misreading this. OP is saying they want to cancel due to company's viability down the road due to this incident. So they are afraid of losing the money caused by tesla going under not so much about the safty issue with autopilot because any common sense people can just NOT use the autopilot feature if it is unsafe.

    As for viability of the company i understand where you stand. It is not the lack of autopilot sales that can drive tesla under but really the lawsuit. This is something people should look into when determining long term tesla's viability.

    Personally i think this was tesla's problem all along. Claiming something when it is not. I wont get into details but reading this forum, i have plenty of case where tesla have oversold something. I think the marketing dept. At tesla should all be fired.
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  • Jul 2, 2016
    msnow
    Well I don't agree with your conclusion but I was surprised that Tesla self-insures for liability risks.
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  • Jul 3, 2016
    artsci
    This has been claim of Tesla naysayers from day one and every incident of this kind raises it again. It has affected the stock price but I don't think it will effect sales. No one is required to buy AP or to turn it on while driving.

    If I bought my Tesla today I would have no interest in AP -- I like to drive the car full time myself. I've saved myself from some dreadful situations on the road that could have resulted in serious accidents without AP. I focus totally on the road -- don't take or make phone calls while driving and resist all distractions from concentration on driving. AP provides a false sense of security that I consider a distraction from concentration on driving. IMHO too much faith in technology is a kind of false god.
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  • Jul 3, 2016
    Beryl
    Tesla's AP commitment was and still remains one of the 4 main reasons I chose to buy a Tesla. I reserved a Tesla before AP was released and now that I've used it, I will continue where it makes sense, attentively with my hands on the wheel. If makes certain driving conditions (heavy traffic & long trips) pleasant.

    Fully electric with significant range, USA built, continuously improving technology via software, & excellent safety standards are the other reasons.
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  • Jul 3, 2016
    buckerine
    Lawsuits most likely won't be the downfall of Tesla. But soft demand will. And Tesla apparently missed delivery estimates for Q2 by a bit. Stuff like this sort of gives me the jitters. But like I said its stil an awesome car and I personally am going through with the order.
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  • Jul 3, 2016
    GoTslaGo
    IMHO, shouldn't be too worried about demand. Their running the factory at 2k cars/week almost all of June. They missed the delivery numbers, but there are 5k cars in transit. They were able to produce 18+k cars this quarter, deliver 14k cars. Running 2 shifts a day. Some other posters have reported "3rd shift" for maintenance. Sounds pretty busy to me. Factors that likely slowed deliveries this quarter include, Model X QA by Musk and new face-lift and retooling. That being said, I do expect Wall Street to punish the share price this week.
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  • Jul 4, 2016
    DCGOO
    Would you use cruise control?
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  • Jul 4, 2016
    m2s2
    I was wondering about delaying an order because I am trading in my pre autopilot MS for an MX. I do a lot of stop and go highway driving. So one feature I am looking forward to is the autopilot. I am a bit worried the NTSA might force Tesla to disable the feature. I hope not. I happened to finalize the order on a Demo X they day of the accident. So I should have it in a week or two.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    WannabeOwner
    Side guards (under run protection) have been a requirement for large goods vehicles and trailers in the UK for over 30 years ... surprising and disappointing that its not a requirement in the USA too - the consequences of a car going under a trailer, and the roof being chopped off, are horrific.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    Duckjybe
    Totally agree. If the truck in the autopilot accident had side guards the automatic braking may have activated and slowed or stopped the car from going right under the trailer. Side guards make sense not only for safety but also for aerodynamics. They are adding fibreglass side fairings to trailers here in NA so making them structural for safety should be a no-brainer.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    boonedocks
    I may be mistaken, but wasn't the accident actually due to a fault in the Mobileye system not detecting the truck? There is more than one system involved in activating AutoPilot. One of them is a standalone part of the Tesla that is available to all circa/A/P hardware cars with active safety features. Isn't the Mobileye system responsible for seeing and detecting and finally invoking the automatic braking system on our Tesla's, the same as any other car equipped with Mobileye's automatic braking system? Even if the driver had just been using TACC which is available on many cars, wouldn't this same accident have happened if the driver was distracted or couldn't see clearly? I just don't want to see Tesla and the growth of safety features hindered because of misconception or misuse of a Tesla feature. I hope the media that is so quick to jump on Tesla will look at the true cause of the, where technology was at fault, and not point it's finger solely at Tesla.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    electracity
    The NHTSA knows how many people die in car accidents every day. I think auto braking on all cars equipped is disappointingly limited, but these systems do provide a benefit in their current form.

    I don't see any reason Tesla would be singled out here for an administrative action.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    SomeJoe7777
    No, the MobileEye system does not have lateral transit across path (LTAP) detection. A new MobileEye system with LTAP detection is supposed to be available around 2018.

    "Fault" implies that the system failed to do what it was supposed to do. There was no "fault" in this accident in this sense. The existing MobileEye system does not have the capability to, and was not designed to activate AEB upon a LTAP situation, so there is no fault with it.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    Clomer
    The outcome of the NHTSA investigation that I would love to see would be for them to mandate Side Guards on trucks. This would do far more to improve overall road safety for everyone than imposing some kind of restriction on autonomous systems based on this one accident. Indeed, if the truck in question had side guards, it's possible that the autopilot system wouldn't have been confused the way it was and would have been able to prevent the collision. Even if not, then the Model S's safety systems would have had a chance to do their job, and the driver might have survived.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    msnow
    Hmmm, seems we are way off topic.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    Clomer
    Yea, you're probably right. A number of these posts (including my last one) should probably be moved to the thread on the accident itself.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    Lex
    Agreed. Though sometimes it's really fun being the underdog, human tragedy is inevitable in the (current) vehicle transportation business and it really hurts with such a small community, but that agility means we're moving on together.

    Well then Autopilot should be your dream come true then as I am similar in that I need "total situational awareness" and AP allows a more open focus to the road ahead and around. I am not the first to say this. And yes, I use it daily and also manually drive as much as I can, at least for the fun fresh air parts.

    But, if you are worried about the "being lulled into a false sense of security" thing that is one everyone's mind, then I am starting to better understand why some owners would prefer not to have it available. I was rear-ended by a texting person in my last car, thankfully at slow speed. Using your mobile phone here is points and big fine, yet some risk it. It literally equates to zombie cars on the road.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    theslimshadyist
    Good choice. You can leave AP off your build or add it later, the good news is that you have choices.
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  • Jul 5, 2016
    buckerine
    Yep. I kept AP on as I think it works great. But I pushed delivery back until March of next year so I can hopefully get all of the new goodies released this year.
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  • Jul 7, 2016
    Pawilson3

    Agree completely. Has anyone pointed out how many accidents AP has prevented? It will be interesting to see the overall fatality statistics a few years from now. I expect the comparison to # of miles driven without this type of assisted technology will be favorable.
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